Author Topic: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...  (Read 4148 times)

Offline 八兩金

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Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« on: November 22, 2007, 02:14:11 PM »
we must be strong, do not let US pull us like thier pet dog.... >:( >:(
here there some good news to share with u guys ;D :D :angel:


Goldman Sachs sees China stocks peaking mid-2008

SHANGHAI, Nov 21 - Chinese shares listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong may reach their peak in mid-2008, while full-year returns on 300 key mainland large-capitalised stocks are forecast at a negative 11.3 percent for 2008, mainly due to high valuations, Goldman Sachs said.

Stocks of mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or H shares, are expected, however, to generate a positive return of 8.8 percent next year, the investment bank said in a research report presented at a media briefing on Wednesday.

"We believe euphoric sentiment and liquidity could potentially propel Chinese stocks to unsustainably high levels in the first half of 2008 before they subsequently retrace on growth, margin, inflation and valuations concerns," it said, citing next summer's planned Olympic Games in Beijing.

The report was written by a team headed by Thomas Deng, its chief strategist for China.

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has jumped 350 percent since the start of 2006, buoyed by strong economic growth and corporate earnings.

Despite a 14 percent correction since mid-October, the average A-share price-earnings ratio remains above 60 times 2006 earnings, compared with Hong Kong's 22 times, sparking repeated warnings from global investment bankers of a possible bubble.

Morgan Stanley, in a research report published on Tuesday, said: "The A-share market hosts not only the biggest valuation bubble amongst the world equities, but also one of the largest earnings bubbles."

It warned that the A-share market was now struggling to stay at its current high valuations and any further negative news could accelerate a correction to levels that might resemble what happened in Japan in the late 1980s.

MARKET BUBBLES

But Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS, said any major A-share correction should not have much impact on China's economy mainly because of the country's small free float, which gives it one of the smallest equity exposures as a share of gross domestic product in Asia.

"And even the total market capitalisation data put China a long way behind other historical market bubbles," Anderson said.

An analysis of the relationship between stocks and bank deposits in Japan and Taiwan indicated that in each case total equity market capitalisation reached 140 percent of broad money M2 at the height of the bubble, he said in a research report last week.

"In China today the ratio is just passing 75 percent," he said. "On this measure, China is only half way up, more in line with Japan and Taiwan in the late 1990s than in the late 1980s."

The Goldman Sachs report forecast that China's CSI300 Index <.CSI300>, which tracks 300 A shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and is used by most A-share funds as a benchmark, was forecast at 4,700 points by the end of 2008. The index closed at 4,997.62 on Wednesday.

Hong Kong's China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of H shares, which closed at 15,993.50 on Wednesday, was forecast to reach 19,600 points by the end of next year, it said.

"Using a combination of valuation models and explicit cross-country comparisons, we conclude that current valuations are at most fair for H shares and unjustifiable for A shares," the report said.

"We believe the current forward P/E, which is at around 32 times, is neither justifiable in theory nor by fundamentals. We expect it to gradually normalise to our expected long-term maximum fundamental forward of 27 times."

China's real GDP growth was forecast to slow to 10.3 percent in 2008 from 11.6 percent in 2007, translating into slower forecast corporate earnings growth in 2009.

Buy HSI stocks and HOLD for longer term..... Twin Tower Lee will
provide the SUPPORT - NO FEAR

Lee Shau Kee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFK8sa7Kces

Lee Ka Shing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2vDATh_5og&feature=related

丁蟹的股票哲学- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkyPQTGoRAY (must watch... ;D ;D )

放棄很容易,
堅持很難,
堅持到底更難,
堅持到底了要放棄更更更難!!!

Winners never whine,
Whiners never win.

Offline DR KIM

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2007, 02:43:57 PM »
BABY....what  a joke  !  it's  a downtrend n MELTDOWN maaa - accept  the  fact  eventhough  it's  spicy loorrrrr  ! >:D >:D >:D >:D >:D

Offline DR KIM

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2007, 02:47:09 PM »
don't  day  dreamed  baby ,.........it's  tough to accept  it  , some  even wiped  out  n debt-ridden  bcoz  of  greedy...greed  kills  ,  a lesson for  china/hk call wa   >:D >:D

Offline jonjee0203

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2007, 02:50:50 PM »
Dr Kim,

Hear Hear!

Here comes Uncle ah Long! >:D >:D >:D >:D

Offline nkh

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2007, 03:18:43 PM »
I adi accept this concept. But still dunno y alot ppl want to challenge market. Haiz... No point to shout at all.

Offline jonjee0203

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2007, 03:53:45 PM »
nkh,

Never time the market. :police: :police: :police: :police: :police:

You lose, man! :( :( :( :( :(

Offline nkh

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2007, 03:56:12 PM »
Haha. i adi knoe will drop. I already start not play since middle of october.

Offline jonjee0203

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2007, 04:07:09 PM »
nkh,

u one smart alec......................good for you! :angel: :angel: :angel: ;D ;D ;D ;D

Offline ahbah

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2007, 05:36:28 PM »
Stocks of mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or H shares, are expected, however, to generate a positive return of 8.8 percent next year

Offline ahbah

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2007, 05:38:18 PM »
Buy HSI stocks and HOLD for longer term..... Twin Tower Lee will
provide the SUPPORT - NO FEAR

Offline jonjee0203

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2007, 05:38:47 PM »
ahbah,

Good for ya! :angel: :angel: :angel:

Offline penang_lim

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Re: Hong Kong will LEAD the REBOUNCE along Asian Markets soon...
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2007, 05:47:45 PM »
Buy HSI stocks and HOLD for longer term..... Twin Tower Lee will
provide the SUPPORT - NO FEAR

What is the ratios and the ex-price of HSI?  Thanks.
When the time comes, all investment knowledges should be passed to the younger generations for further enhancement.

Thx & Rgds;
Lim