Author Topic: Guan Chong  (Read 28349 times)

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #50 on: January 24, 2011, 11:10:55 PM »
Guan Chong ... Naik lagi.   :thumbsup:

Offline Ethan

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #51 on: January 24, 2011, 11:18:24 PM »
Guan Chong ... Naik lagi.   :thumbsup:


THAT RITE!

You are good investor who can make good stock call and share good view with forumer here!
why waste time on that liar leno?
 :handshake: :handshake: :thumbsup:

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #52 on: January 30, 2011, 12:12:11 PM »
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/180786-cocoa-windfall-for-guan-chong.html

Due to the problems in Ivory Coast, world cocoa prices shot up. 

“We try to sustain profit margins of about 5% to 7% and sustain that no matter how high or low cocoa prices might go ” Guan Chong CEO Brandon Tay told The Edge Financial Daily yesterday.


Offline mitchy

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #53 on: January 30, 2011, 12:27:13 PM »
At RM2.80 the p/e is at around 10 with a gearing ratio of 1.2x, do u still think there is upside given that it has run-up so much?

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #54 on: January 30, 2011, 12:56:54 PM »
At RM2.80 the p/e is at around 10 with a gearing ratio of 1.2x, do u still think there is upside given that it has run-up so much?

Buyers beware. ;)

Monitor its quarterly earnings.

The price has certainly moved out a lot for this counter recently.

Offline purpledino

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #55 on: January 30, 2011, 01:35:56 PM »
Buyers beware. ;)
Monitor its quarterly earnings.
The price has certainly moved out a lot for this counter recently.

bb,
is it time to sell now or wait till after bonus issue i.e. 10feb ? Not sure what will be the listed price then.  I am holding 4lots now at purchase price 60sen plus-bought years ago.  What is yr view on this, in order to maximize profit.   








 
W

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2011, 01:41:40 PM »
Buyers beware. ;)

Monitor its quarterly earnings.

The price has certainly moved up lot for this counter recently.

9M 2010 Revenue of Guan Chong = 268.952m + 270.781m + 296.563m = 836.306m
Estimated 12M 2010 Revenue of Guan Chong = 836.306 X 4/3 = 1115.2 m

Its net profit margin is quoted around 5% to 7% by its CEO.
Therefore, we estimate a net profit based on the above projected revenue as below:

5% net profit margin
Net profit = 5% x 1115.2 = 55.75m

7% net profit margin
Net profit = 7% x 1115.2 = 78.06m

Its outstanding number of shares = 240m
At 2.80 per share, its market cap = 240 x 2.80 = 672m

Let us look at its valuations:
P/S = 672/1115.2 = 0.6 x

Using net profit of 5%:
P/E = 672 / 55.75 = 12 x

Using net profit of 7%:
P/E = 672/ 78.06 = 8.6 x

Yes, it is obvious that is PE is closer to 10 than when this counter was first highlighted here, when it was undervalued.


bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #57 on: January 30, 2011, 01:58:23 PM »
9M 2010 Revenue of Guan Chong = 268.952m + 270.781m + 296.563m = 836.306m
Estimated 12M 2010 Revenue of Guan Chong = 836.306 X 4/3 = 1115.2 m

Its net profit margin is quoted around 5% to 7% by its CEO.
Therefore, we estimate a net profit based on the above projected revenue as below:

5% net profit margin
Net profit = 5% x 1115.2 = 55.75m

7% net profit margin
Net profit = 7% x 1115.2 = 78.06m

Its outstanding number of shares = 240m
At 2.80 per share, its market cap = 240 x 2.80 = 672m

Let us look at its valuations:
P/S = 672/1115.2 = 0.6 x

Using net profit of 5%:
P/E = 672 / 55.75 = 12 x

Using net profit of 7%:
P/E = 672/ 78.06 = 8.6 x

Yes, it is obvious that is PE is closer to 10 than when this counter was first highlighted here, when it was undervalued.



The problems facing hedging of cocoa commodity price is not to Guan Chong alone.  Many companies in business have to hedge, for example, rubber gloves - latexx, poultry husbandry - feeds, Tongher - nicket, etc.

The problem with large swings in prices is the large exceptional gains from the hedge or large exceptional losses from the hedge depending on which direction the cocoa price swings.  Also, the profitability overall is influenced by how easily these price swings are reflected in its sales prices to its customers.

However, the revenues of Guan Chong have grown remarkably over the recent and last year.  The impression from the press was that its present production capacities are fully utilised.  It is expanding its production to Batam.  Therefore, this is expected to boost its production capacity and also its revenue.  In this respect, you can maybe postulate that there will be growth in its revenues in the near term.

Managing your portfolio is quite another matter.  Some maybe happy to ride the good time with Guan Chong, speculating that it will deliver better results in the future.  Others may not be able to tolerate high risks (risk intolerant) and may prefer to lock in some of their profits (I call this buying insurance) and allowing the other shares to ride the roller coaster unpredictable business future.  :P

Offline purpledino

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #58 on: January 30, 2011, 02:59:44 PM »
bb,
thanks for d analysis. Meanwhile I am still digesting.     

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #59 on: January 31, 2011, 03:02:23 PM »
Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

Announcement
Date   FinancialYr. End   Qtr   Period End   RevenueRM '000   Profit/LostRM'000     EPS   Amended

31-Jan-11      31-Dec-10      4    31-Dec-10      332,309      42,987      17.88      -
18-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
16-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
09-Aug-10      31-Dec-10      2    30-Jun-10      270,781      19,502      8.13      -

Offline purpledino

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #60 on: January 31, 2011, 03:09:55 PM »
Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

Announcement
Date   FinancialYr. End   Qtr   Period End   RevenueRM '000   Profit/LostRM'000     EPS   Amended

31-Jan-11      31-Dec-10      4    31-Dec-10      332,309      42,987      17.88      -
18-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
16-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
09-Aug-10      31-Dec-10      2    30-Jun-10      270,781      19,502      8.13      -


beautifully flying today ! :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :clap:

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #61 on: January 31, 2011, 03:22:57 PM »
Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

Announcement
Date   FinancialYr. End   Qtr   Period End   RevenueRM '000   Profit/LostRM'000     EPS   Amended

31-Jan-11      31-Dec-10      4    31-Dec-10      332,309      42,987      17.88      -
18-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
16-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
09-Aug-10      31-Dec-10      2    30-Jun-10      270,781      19,502      8.13      -



Current Year to Date Income Statement
Revenue  1168.605m
Profit from operations  116.575m
Profit before tax 115.549m
Earnings  100.113m
EPS 41.67 sen


The profit from operations include the followings:

Dividend income 0.987m
Realised gain on foreign exchange 15.438m
Unrealised gain on foreign exchange 2.785m
Warehouse rental income  1.093m
Realised gain on commodity futures contracts 12.757m
Net fair value gains on financial derivatives 3.599 m
Total 36.659m

Offline tengster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #62 on: January 31, 2011, 03:28:08 PM »
bb - what's the fair value for GuanChong?

Offline mitchy

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #63 on: January 31, 2011, 03:42:13 PM »
if u look at the earnings, mostly are from one-off gains from the its derivatives not core earnings. the p/e 7 is distorted.


Offline StockGod

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #64 on: January 31, 2011, 09:31:20 PM »
wah good result. Sold too early.

Offline StockGod

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #65 on: January 31, 2011, 09:44:35 PM »
just wondering how much is maintainable.

Thought the bought some cheap raw material. Once used up, will the profit margin drop to the level as in the past? And if cocoa price u-turn, they will then caught with high raw material costs.

how nice if we can have real time information so that can make better decision

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #66 on: February 03, 2011, 07:02:45 AM »


Current Year to Date Income Statement
Revenue  1168.605m
Profit from operations  116.575m
Profit before tax 115.549m
Earnings  100.113m
EPS 41.67 sen


The profit from operations include the followings:

Dividend income 0.987m
Realised gain on foreign exchange 15.438m
Unrealised gain on foreign exchange 2.785m
Warehouse rental income  1.093m
Realised gain on commodity futures contracts 12.757m
Net fair value gains on financial derivatives 3.599 m
Total 36.659m


To be conservative in our valuation, we will need to adjust the present earnings to exclude the one-off non-recurrent gains.  It is more appropriate to use a normalised earning for own valuation.

Profit from operations 116.575m
less one-time gains of 36.659m
Normalised Profit from operations 116.m- 36.659m = 79.916m

Normalised Profit after tax @ tax rate of 15.4% = 84.6% x 79.916m = 68.408m

At today's (2.2.2011) price of MR 3.40 per shares, its market cap = 240m x 3.40 = 816m


Therefore, its PE based on normalised earnings = 816 / 68.408 = 11.9 x

Guan Chong is trading at historically high PE.
However, the new plant in Batam will be contributing to further growth in revenue and earnings.  Depending on this growth, is its present PE fair, undervalued or overvalued?  You will need to make your own judgement.

Offline DALI

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #67 on: February 03, 2011, 07:11:56 AM »
must buy

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #68 on: February 07, 2011, 09:12:34 PM »

 :)

Offline StockGod

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #69 on: February 27, 2011, 12:59:14 AM »
same like YeeLee, after ex-date, drop a lot. Those sold at RM3.73 before ex-date or RM2.50 after ex-date congratulation. But i guess u didn't managed to sell all as the bonus shares may not be credited into your account on that day.

12 shares + 4 bonus shares + 3 warrants = 16 shares x RM1.84 + 3 warrants x RM0.665 = RM31.435

That's equivalent to = RM31.435/12 = RM2.62 before bonus and warrant, so enter now is RM1 per share cheaper than the peak of RM3.73





Offline paulthesotong

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #70 on: February 27, 2011, 12:36:06 PM »
cocoa price up record highest for 32 years usd3666 p t .  hedge n strong ringgit good for GG. INTERNAL CONFLICT IN IVORY COAST STILL GOING. WA A BETTER BET.

Offline StockGod

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #71 on: February 27, 2011, 01:21:37 PM »
can Guan Chong pass on the increase? If yes, worth considering buying

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #72 on: April 13, 2011, 10:45:38 PM »
yeah sold some at RM2.57, balance hope can sell slightly higher, say at RM4.00  :cash:

bye bye Guan chong. Sold the rest at RM2.63. Thanks

If drop to below RM2.00 before ex-date, i may buyback

Your 3000 shares will transform, after the bonus and warrant exercise, to:

3000 pre-existing shares + 1000 new shares = 4,000 shares
and
1000 free warrants.

Read more here:
http://~.~.com/2011/01/guan-chong-bonus-and-warrants.html

The share price of GC was 2.60 just before the bonus and warrant exercise.

After the bonus and warrant exercise, for every 3000 shares, you receive 1000 bonus shares and 1000 free warrants.

Before bonus and warrants:

3000 shares @ 2.60 = 8,400

After bonus and warrants:
Based on prices of 13.4.2011

4000 shares @ 2.49 = 9,960
1000 warrants @ 1.01 = 1,010
Total = 10,970

As on 13.4.2011, the increase in total value based on market prices for those who held onto GC shares through the bonus and warrant exercise has been
=[(10,970/8,400) - 1 ]
= + 30.6%

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #73 on: April 14, 2011, 09:46:19 AM »
The share price of GC was 2.60 just before the bonus and warrant exercise.

After the bonus and warrant exercise, for every 3000 shares, you receive 1000 bonus shares and 1000 free warrants.

Before bonus and warrants:

3000 shares @ 2.60 = 8,400

After bonus and warrants:
Based on prices of 13.4.2011

4000 shares @ 2.49 = 9,960
1000 warrants @ 1.01 = 1,010
Total = 10,970

As on 13.4.2011, the increase in total value based on market prices for those who held onto GC shares through the bonus and warrant exercise has been
=[(10,970/8,400) - 1 ]
= + 30.6%
Guan Chong........Bochowcccccccccccccccccccc !
This is a conman company.............run when........u already make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ !
Don be greedy loh........the figure $$$$$$$$$$ cannot be trusted loh...!
Don buy any more.......loh.........this is a trap mah........!

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #74 on: April 14, 2011, 09:53:54 AM »
Guan Chong........Bochowcccccccccccccccccccc !
This is a conman company.............run when........u already make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ !
Don be greedy loh........the figure $$$$$$$$$$ cannot be trusted loh...!
Don buy any more.......loh.........this is a trap mah........!

always be careful when a financially trouble company release a fantastic profit results ( RM11million cash amd RM200 million bank borrowings where RM190 million are short term ). Just very suspicious set of results.

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #75 on: April 14, 2011, 09:54:16 AM »
Symptoms of Transmile/Guan Chong

1) High inventory
2) High debtors
3) High debts
4) Low margin & incredible & unbelievable veri high turnover
5) Excessive high growth....with management forecasting more higher growth
6) Low equity base

Watchout...........for this risk loh...! Bochow...ccccccccccc...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!

Offline ringgityen

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #76 on: April 14, 2011, 10:00:13 AM »
im also not so comfortable with their balance sheet.
>>> 頑張ります

RM ¥ $ € £
==========
praying for a nice $$$$$$$ & don't wanna go to Holland!!

Don't have negative thoughts or things you cannot control. Instead invest your energy in the positive present moment. ~

SKPETRO

Offline Stockstalker

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #77 on: April 14, 2011, 11:04:16 AM »
Danger man

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #78 on: April 14, 2011, 11:19:03 AM »
GC
Particulars of Director
Name   :   Hia Cheng

Type of transaction
   
Date of change  No of securities  Price Transacted ($$) Acquired
   
12/04/2011  1,000,000  2.400


Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #79 on: April 14, 2011, 11:48:13 AM »
GC
Particulars of Director
Name   :   Hia Cheng

Type of transaction
   
Date of change  No of securities  Price Transacted ($$) Acquired
   
12/04/2011  1,000,000  2.400


Don not this info misled u loh...! Yes Director bought 1m share but on 29-3-2011 sold 1.4m Guan Chong mah...!

Bohchowcccccccccccccc....sell b4 too late loh....! Big similiarity with Transmile !
Symptoms of Transmile/Guan Chong

1) High inventory
2) High debtors
3) High debts
4) Low margin & incredible & unbelievable veri high turnover
5) Excessive high growth....with management forecasting more higher growth
6) Low equity base

Watchout...........for this risk loh...! Bochow...ccccccccccc...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #80 on: April 14, 2011, 11:51:35 AM »
Don not this info misled u loh...! Yes Director bought 1m share but on 29-3-2011 sold 1.4m Guan Chong mah...!

Bohchowcccccccccccccc....sell b4 too late loh....! Big similiarity with Transmile !

wow.. directors manipulate share price ah ? what if caught and jailed, who is going to run the company ?

Offline leno

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #81 on: April 14, 2011, 11:55:35 AM »
Don not this info misled u loh...! Yes Director bought 1m share but on 29-3-2011 sold 1.4m Guan Chong mah...!

Bohchowcccccccccccccc....sell b4 too late loh....! Big similiarity with Transmile !

Leno warn about fraud last month alreadi .. shipping inventories from 1 factory to another factory is booked as Revenue.

 :shake: :shake: :shake:

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #82 on: April 14, 2011, 12:01:15 PM »
GC
Particulars of Director
Name   :   Hia Cheng

Type of transaction
   
Date of change  No of securities  Price Transacted ($$) Acquired
   
12/04/2011  1,000,000  2.400



Recent Change of Share Holdings Announcements

Announcement
Date   Date of
Change   Shrs Acquired/
(Disposed)   Director/Substantial Shareholder   Shrs Held
After Change
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    25,133,333   
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Bin Md. Jamil    25,199,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    26,599,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    26,533,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    27,333,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Guan Chong Resources Sdn Bhd    166,453,646   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    27,399,999   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Tay Hoe Lian    174,600,107   

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #83 on: April 14, 2011, 12:04:30 PM »
Leno warn about fraud last month alreadi .. shipping inventories from 1 factory to another factory is booked as Revenue.

 :shake: :shake: :shake:

hey you also have chocolate company, confirm already chocolate company cannot make money. How can Guan Chong can make so much profit. So fake

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #84 on: April 14, 2011, 12:05:07 PM »
Recent Change of Share Holdings Announcements

Announcement
Date   Date of
Change   Shrs Acquired/
(Disposed)   Director/Substantial Shareholder   Shrs Held
After Change
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    25,133,333   
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Bin Md. Jamil    25,199,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    26,599,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    26,533,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    27,333,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Guan Chong Resources Sdn Bhd    166,453,646   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    27,399,999   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Tay Hoe Lian    174,600,107
   
Pls don misled investlah members.......by including the bonus issue as acquisition by insiders mah........! Actually there are more disposal than acquisition by the insider mah...!

Bochow.......ccccccccccc......loh...! There is already writing on the wall mah......! Don be the next transmile !

bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #85 on: April 14, 2011, 12:14:47 PM »

GUANCHG
Past Dividends declared
   

First Interim 3¢    31-Jan-11    
Fifth Interim 4¢    18-Nov-10
Fourth Interim 2¢    09-Aug-10
Third Interim 1.5¢    30-Jun-10    
Second Interim 0.25¢    22-Apr-10
First Interim 0.5¢TE+0.75¢    24-Feb-10

Third Interim 1.5¢    25-Nov-09    
Second Interim 0.75¢ TE    25-Aug-09
First Interim 0.5¢ TE    18-Feb-09
First Final 0.5¢ TE    27-Nov-08
Final 0.5¢ TE    26-Jun-08    

Second Interim 2.375¢    19-Nov-07
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-07
Final 1.3¢ TE    30-May-07    
Third Interim 1¢ TE    21-Nov-06
Second Interim 1¢ TE    29-Aug-06
Final 1¢ TE    25-May-06
   
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-05
First Interim 1.3¢ TE    15-Jun-05

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #86 on: April 14, 2011, 12:16:04 PM »
GUANCHG
Past Dividends declared
   

First Interim 3¢    31-Jan-11    
Fifth Interim 4¢    18-Nov-10
Fourth Interim 2¢    09-Aug-10
Third Interim 1.5¢    30-Jun-10    
Second Interim 0.25¢    22-Apr-10
First Interim 0.5¢TE+0.75¢    24-Feb-10

Third Interim 1.5¢    25-Nov-09    
Second Interim 0.75¢ TE    25-Aug-09
First Interim 0.5¢ TE    18-Feb-09
First Final 0.5¢ TE    27-Nov-08
Final 0.5¢ TE    26-Jun-08    

Second Interim 2.375¢    19-Nov-07
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-07
Final 1.3¢ TE    30-May-07    
Third Interim 1¢ TE    21-Nov-06
Second Interim 1¢ TE    29-Aug-06
Final 1¢ TE    25-May-06
   
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-05
First Interim 1.3¢ TE    15-Jun-05

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #87 on: April 14, 2011, 12:17:16 PM »
Thats why use up all the cash, declare dividend so that share price will move up... now left with RM11 million cash on hand. How to pay back the bank borrowing RM200 million, out of that... RM190 million are short term.

GUANCHG
Past Dividends declared
   

First Interim 3¢    31-Jan-11    
Fifth Interim 4¢    18-Nov-10
Fourth Interim 2¢    09-Aug-10
Third Interim 1.5¢    30-Jun-10    
Second Interim 0.25¢    22-Apr-10
First Interim 0.5¢TE+0.75¢    24-Feb-10

Third Interim 1.5¢    25-Nov-09    
Second Interim 0.75¢ TE    25-Aug-09
First Interim 0.5¢ TE    18-Feb-09
First Final 0.5¢ TE    27-Nov-08
Final 0.5¢ TE    26-Jun-08    

Second Interim 2.375¢    19-Nov-07
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-07
Final 1.3¢ TE    30-May-07    
Third Interim 1¢ TE    21-Nov-06
Second Interim 1¢ TE    29-Aug-06
Final 1¢ TE    25-May-06
   
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-05
First Interim 1.3¢ TE    15-Jun-05

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #88 on: April 14, 2011, 12:19:28 PM »
GUANCHG
Past Dividends declared
   

First Interim 3¢    31-Jan-11    
Fifth Interim 4¢    18-Nov-10
Fourth Interim 2¢    09-Aug-10
Third Interim 1.5¢    30-Jun-10    
Second Interim 0.25¢    22-Apr-10
First Interim 0.5¢TE+0.75¢    24-Feb-10

Third Interim 1.5¢    25-Nov-09    
Second Interim 0.75¢ TE    25-Aug-09
First Interim 0.5¢ TE    18-Feb-09
First Final 0.5¢ TE    27-Nov-08
Final 0.5¢ TE    26-Jun-08    

Second Interim 2.375¢    19-Nov-07
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-07
Final 1.3¢ TE    30-May-07    
Third Interim 1¢ TE    21-Nov-06
Second Interim 1¢ TE    29-Aug-06
Final 1¢ TE    25-May-06
   
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-05
First Interim 1.3¢ TE    15-Jun-05
Again effectively Guan Chong is paying Rm 0.035 per share per annum ! May be after bonus....this amount of dividend is around 0.03 p.a. only loh...!

High gearing....cannot to pay high dividend or continue to buyback share mah...!

Bochowccccccc loh...!

Online stockraider

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #89 on: April 14, 2011, 12:23:00 PM »
 BB is Guan Chong's Conman's agent !
Recent Change of Share Holdings Announcements

Announcement
Date   Date of
Change   Shrs Acquired/
(Disposed)   Director/Substantial Shareholder   Shrs Held
After Change
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    25,133,333   
29-Mar-11      28-Mar-11      (1,400,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Bin Md. Jamil    25,199,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    26,599,999   
25-Mar-11      24-Mar-11      (800,000)      Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    26,533,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Misi Galakan Sdn Bhd    27,333,333   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Guan Chong Resources Sdn Bhd    166,453,646   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            YBhg Dato Dr Mohamad Musa Bin Md. Jamil    27,399,999   
07-Mar-11      14-Feb-11            Tay Hoe Lian    174,600,107   
GUANCHG
Past Dividends declared
   

First Interim 3¢    31-Jan-11    
Fifth Interim 4¢    18-Nov-10
Fourth Interim 2¢    09-Aug-10
Third Interim 1.5¢    30-Jun-10    
Second Interim 0.25¢    22-Apr-10
First Interim 0.5¢TE+0.75¢    24-Feb-10

Third Interim 1.5¢    25-Nov-09    
Second Interim 0.75¢ TE    25-Aug-09
First Interim 0.5¢ TE    18-Feb-09
First Final 0.5¢ TE    27-Nov-08
Final 0.5¢ TE    26-Jun-08    

Second Interim 2.375¢    19-Nov-07
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-07
Final 1.3¢ TE    30-May-07    
Third Interim 1¢ TE    21-Nov-06
Second Interim 1¢ TE    29-Aug-06
Final 1¢ TE    25-May-06
   
Second Interim 2¢ TE    28-Oct-05
First Interim 1.3¢ TE    15-Jun-05

Evidence : He Give misleading info.......U think Bb don know meh ?

Offline leno

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #90 on: April 14, 2011, 12:28:57 PM »
BB is Guan Chong's Conman's agent !
Evidence : He Give misleading info.......U think Bb don know meh ?

Aiyor ... BB ... why u purposely give misleading info ?

 :speechless:

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #91 on: April 14, 2011, 12:33:07 PM »
Again effectively Guan Chong is paying Rm 0.035 per share per annum ! May be after bonus....this amount of dividend is around 0.03 p.a. only loh...!

High gearing....cannot to pay high dividend or continue to buyback share mah...!

Bochowccccccc loh...!

Guan Chong is playing a very dangerous game... just put yourself in Guan Chong shoe. You already have not enough money to pay bank bank loans.. still can afford to use your little balance money to pay dividend and buy back shares ah ?

both activities buy back share and dividend can boost share price ? why need to boost share price ?  That money should be used to pay back bank borrowings and do business why use it to boost share price ? For owner to sell high to run issit ?


bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #92 on: April 14, 2011, 12:42:10 PM »
Cocoa grinding is a capital intensive industry.  Cocoa grinding is a volume game business.  Leveraging on the economies of scale, the greater the grinding volume the higher the margin.

Having a grinding plant in Batam enables the group to benefit from processing zero-tariff raw materials.  With an initial annual capacity of 60,000 MTs, the plant started operating in Feb 2011.

(Not sure about Leno's post that GC booked the selling of inventories to its Batam's operation as revenue.  The idea of setting up in Batam is to source for the cocoa at lower tariffs, as it is produced and sourced locally in Indonesia.)

Apparently, approximately 85% of the group's trading in cocoa (the primary commodity for its manufacturing) is conducted on a physical back to back basis, i.e. the group will only purchase cocoa beans from suppliers when the demand order is secured.  The purchase price for cocoa beans is fixed only prior to shipment and the same applies to the selling prices of its products.  The remaining 15% of the trading is conducted through commodity futures contract.




bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #93 on: April 14, 2011, 01:18:27 PM »
Market Watch
Recent Financial Results

Announcement
Date   FinancialYr. End   Qtr   Period End   RevenueRM '000   Profit/LostRM'000     EPS   Amended

31-Jan-11      31-Dec-10      4    31-Dec-10      332,309      42,987      17.88      -
18-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
16-Nov-10      31-Dec-10      3    30-Sep-10      296,563      17,788      7.44      -
09-Aug-10      31-Dec-10      2    30-Jun-10      270,781      19,502      8.13      -



Current Year to Date Income Statement
Revenue  1168.605m
Profit from operations  116.575m
Profit before tax 115.549m
Earnings  100.113m
EPS 41.67 sen


The profit from operations include the followings:

Dividend income 0.987m
Realised gain on foreign exchange 15.438m
Unrealised gain on foreign exchange 2.785m
Warehouse rental income  1.093m
Realised gain on commodity futures contracts 12.757m
Net fair value gains on financial derivatives 3.599 m
Total 36.659m


To be conservative in our valuation, we will need to adjust the present earnings to exclude the one-off non-recurrent gains.  It is more appropriate to use a normalised earning for own valuation.

Profit from operations 116.575m
less one-time gains of 36.659m
Normalised Profit from operations 116.m- 36.659m = 79.916m

Normalised Profit after tax @ tax rate of 15.4% = 84.6% x 79.916m = 68.408m

At today's (2.2.2011) price of MR 3.40 per shares, its market cap = 240m x 3.40 = 816m


Therefore, its PE based on normalised earnings = 816 / 68.408 = 11.9 x

Guan Chong is trading at historically high PE.
However, the new plant in Batam will be contributing to further growth in revenue and earnings.  Depending on this growth, is its present PE fair, undervalued or overvalued?  You will need to make your own judgement.


..and here is Raider's opinion...
Symptoms of Transmile/Guan Chong

1) High inventory
2) High debtors
3) High debts
4) Low margin & incredible & unbelievable veri high turnover
5) Excessive high growth....with management forecasting more higher growth
6) Low equity base

Watchout...........for this risk loh...! Bochow...ccccccccccc...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!


Cons:

Low profit margin
High debt leverage
Significant foreign exchange risk
Significant future commodity contract risk
Capital intensive


Pros:

................
................

simplesoul

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #94 on: April 14, 2011, 01:32:26 PM »
wonder when Dali will come up with a............'why i love Guan Chong veli muchy' ?

 :P

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #95 on: April 14, 2011, 03:00:44 PM »
wonder when Dali will come up with a............'why i love Guan Chong veli muchy' ?

 :P

very likely because GUANCHNG may pay Dali to write something.. Dali also untung, insiders also untung.. only those people go chasing GC later one will be caught and lose money.

bb

  • Guest
Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #96 on: April 14, 2011, 03:09:49 PM »
SNAPSHOT OF GUAN CHONG BHD (GUAN)

PRICE 1.96
MARKET CAP 470.4M
EPS TTM 0.27
SHARES OUTSTANDING 240.0M
P/E TTM 7.4x
DIVIDEND 0.10
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.97%


Valuation   
Price/Earnings   7.4x   
Price/Sales   0.4x   
Price/Book   3.2x   
Price/Cash Flow   7.4x   
TEV/Sales   0.2x   







Financials
http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=GUAN:MK (http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=GUAN:MK)


GC was an old thread started in Dec 2010.  At that time, its price was 1.96 per share.  This price of 1.96 per share in Dec 2010 was the equivalent of 1.22 per share at current price (adjusting for bonus and free warrant in February).

Therefore, GC at today's price of 2.41 is 98% [(2.41 is 2.41/1.22) -1 = 98%] higher in market price compared to Dec 2010.

It was more undervalued in Dec 2010 than now.  This is not surprising since there has been more coverage for this stock since it was discovered.

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #97 on: April 14, 2011, 03:23:04 PM »

GC was an old thread started in Dec 2010.  At that time, its price was 1.96 per share.  This price of 1.96 per share in Dec 2010 was the equivalent of 1.22 per share at current price (adjusting for bonus and free warrant in February).

Therefore, GC at today's price of 2.41 is 98% [(2.41 is 2.41/1.22) -1 = 98%] higher in market price compared to Dec 2010.

It was more undervalued in Dec 2010 than now.  This is not surprising since there has been more coverage for this stock since it was discovered.

of cos will go up lah.. so much money spent on dividend, share buy back and manipulation by insiders. Now already up 98% like you say... still dare to get involved ah ?  if healthy company okay but with RM200 million debt and only RM11 million cash on hand.. very very risky.


bb

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #98 on: April 14, 2011, 04:24:58 PM »
Sometimes, I am taken aback by my past writings and comments.  :)

Fair comment.

Guan Chong did make almost 10 million from the rise in cocoa price.  However, its revenues have increased tremendously over the last 1 year.  Its production capacity is totally used up and it is expanding its production capacity in Batam.  Its profit margin was a miserable 5% or so in the past, but has increase recently, though the latest quarter showed a slight fall.  Its debts are high but last year was an exceptional year, it generated huge cash flows and FCF, enabling it to reduce some of this high debts.

The company is investing to expand its business.  Its capital expenditure has been and will be high for this year.  My understanding from my reading is that they are producing for more cocoa product based companies that are outsourcing their production for one reason or another.

For the short and medium term, given its lowish PE and its good dividend yield (check out the dividends given), I have in fact identified this stock some time back in November 2010 to be included into my portfolio.  This stock is truly neglected and out of the radar screen of big players, and thus was trading at a low PE. 

The Unusual Market Activity reply by the company was quite unlike the usual reply by other companies when their share prices suddenly shot up.  I thought the replies were fairly reasonable and also truthful, or close to the truth. :P

Please do your own study and make your own decision.  Do not ever trust anyone's writing, (I INCLUDED  :P) without doing your own personal assessment of the stock and financial datas. :)

Offline johnmaster

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Re: Guan Chong
« Reply #99 on: April 14, 2011, 04:49:58 PM »
Sometimes, I am taken aback by my past writings and comments.  :)


this is what I called sharing selective info... how about that massive RM200 million debt and just RM11 million cash on hand. how to handle that bank borrowings ? This problem is the most crucial for GC.. yet bb choose not to talk about it.