Author Topic: In search of Elliot Wave Theory  (Read 15437 times)

Offline Maxforce

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In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« on: August 06, 2006, 01:32:27 PM »
Inspired by AbuseYou - the champion in US Stock Market, this thread is dedicated to the simple but effective method of forecasting the market movements.
Myself, am exposed to Elliot Wave but are not fully well versed with the inside outs of Elliot Wave.
This thread's objective is for all of us to master Elliot Wave, myself included.

I have found several useful resources for Elliot Wave
http://stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/elliotwavetheory.html Stock Charts.com
- a very brief introduction to Elliot Wave Theory

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/ Elliot Wave Club
- Register for free and get regular newsletter.
- Also, download available for members on Elliot Wave Theory.

Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline AbuseYou

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2006, 01:43:14 PM »
Inspired by AbuseYou - the champion in US Stock Market, this thread is dedicated to the simple but effective method of forecasting the market movements.
Myself, am exposed to Elliot Wave but are not fully well versed with the inside outs of Elliot Wave.
This thread's objective is for all of us to master Elliot Wave, myself included.

I have found several useful resources for Elliot Wave
http://stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/elliotwavetheory.html Stock Charts.com
- a very brief introduction to Elliot Wave Theory

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/ Elliot Wave Club
- Register for free and get regular newsletter.
- Also, download available for members on Elliot Wave Theory.



Hi Max, that is too much for me. I am just a normal analyst, cannot be claimed as a champion. My purpose of posting my analysis here is to help people in this forum to make more profits, earns more!! In return, I learn more.
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(Blog Address: abuseyou168.~.com)

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2006, 01:45:42 PM »
Aiyah, dont be so modest...
Anyway, the purpose of this thread is so that we can all learn more about Elliot Wave.
Frankly, I have never relied on Elliot before.
Have always use other TA indicators and fundamentals.
Currently trying to apply Elliot to KLCI chart... headache la  ???
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2006, 02:04:27 PM »
(http://imageshack.us)

Bolehkah?
Haha 1st attempt I think not too bad... though there is a gap in between the two cycles.
Haha
But if what I ve drawn is correct, then there will be a minor retracement soon.
Then a major rebound - coincide with budgeting time? or will coincide with year end?
« Last Edit: August 06, 2006, 02:08:08 PM by Maxforce »
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2006, 02:22:55 PM »
One more link to the EWIClub once you ve registered
http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribers/subsonly.aspx Elliot Wave Tutorial
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2006, 02:40:13 PM »
Aiks just noticed - 2nd cycle has violated rule 2: Wave 4 does NOT end in Wave 1 territory.
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2006, 02:53:17 PM »
Corrections made:  :D

(http://imageshack.us)

So then the question is has Wave 3 completed?
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Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2006, 01:06:22 AM »
Corrections made:  :D

(http://imageshack.us)

So then the question is has Wave 3 completed?

plz forgive me for my rudeness, i am lowly educated so ....

but wat the FXXK is the elliot wave in the drawing?

abuse you, u misled ppl lah...

very first, where is the accumulation period before ur elliot wave number started?

secondly, what the heck, and how come number 5 peak can be lower than number 3?

thirdly, eliiot wave is a kind of wave in wave, where is ur bigger wave, which should be numbered I, II, II, IV and so on?

for a person with hammer, he will try to hammer everything, even when the situation need a screwdriver...

err, such a  chart, why not use simple resistance and support line to play?

hope can learn from u...

good nite, and bye bye.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2006, 01:09:15 AM »
Hi Max, that is too much for me. I am just a normal analyst, cannot be claimed as a champion. My purpose of posting my analysis here is to help people in this forum to make more profits, earns more!! In return, I learn more.

abuse you, u try to do a gathering around PJ here lah...

then can show show ur Nilson candlestick technique...

i am willing to pay RM1000 for ur course.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2006, 07:39:18 AM »
blardee... first attempt mah
anyway, peak 5 CAN be lower than peak 3.
When it does it means that the correction will be severe.
As you can see it was quite severe - Peak 5 to C

Accumulation, well, for the first cycle very small only - see volume ascending
For the 2nd cycle it is more "kaulat" - volume ascend more

SUpport & resistance - knew that long time ago.
Testing EW theory.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2006, 12:38:56 PM »
blardee... first attempt mah
anyway, peak 5 CAN be lower than peak 3.
When it does it means that the correction will be severe.
As you can see it was quite severe - Peak 5 to C

Accumulation, well, for the first cycle very small only - see volume ascending
For the 2nd cycle it is more "kaulat" - volume ascend more

SUpport & resistance - knew that long time ago.
Testing EW theory.

opp, then u elliot wave theory must be very different from wat i learn from Pretcher and Elliot.

must be a very new theory...

peak 5 must be highest in a cycle.

and ur accumulation pattern also very different from wat i learn from O'neil, Wermie and etc, must also be very newly discovered accumulation pattern also.

The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2006, 08:26:41 PM »
Then I suggest you relearn it.
Go to the links I ve provided.
Look carefully who is the main guy behind the links.
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2006, 11:45:17 PM »
Enhanced version. To give a clearer picture.

(http://imageshack.us)
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Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2006, 11:51:44 PM »
Then I suggest you relearn it.
Go to the links I ve provided.
Look carefully who is the main guy behind the links.

hahahaha, this is really funny.(not only the website, the book also i read through a lot of times)

ok lah, so, happy trading with ur EW theory.


now i am relearning the new EW theory.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2006, 12:28:41 AM »
it makes you wonder, how can one know so little yet brag so much about it.
Excerpts from Elliot Wave International

Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 1-11 and 1-12. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.

The U.S. stock market provides two examples of major degree truncated fifths since 1932. The first occurred in October 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis (see Figure 1-13). It followed the crash that occurred as wave 3. The second occurred at year-end in 1976 (see Figure 1-14). It followed the soaring and broad wave (3) that took place from October 1975 to March 1976.

Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonal triangles all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.


Once you ve registered, goto the tutorial link I ve provided above.
Check Lesson 2.
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2006, 12:29:38 AM »
booffett sau pei lah
disgrace to the buffett name.
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Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2006, 11:23:57 AM »
booffett sau pei lah
disgrace to the buffett name.

hahahah, from ur numbering of EW... and from the graph...(could be seen as truly an expert in EW)

u better find someone that truly learn tech analysis, may be especially those who having CMT title to re0draw for u.

thought at least u bought the author book and read already, OMG, just follow some internet tutorial...



The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2006, 11:31:38 AM »
anyway, no offense, but plz continue putting up ur EW example ya... ;D

many ppl will be benefited, especially if u use ur EW theory and guide us to play in US or Malaysia market.  :-*

The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2006, 07:15:34 PM »
talk is cheap. show proof.
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Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2006, 09:20:30 PM »
talk is cheap. show proof.

wat to proof?

i dun like talk theories of proof, i only will give recomendations when chances of winning is high (but of coz not in today non-bull non-bear market).

i am still waiting for ur forecast, like which stock to buy, when to stop loss and etc...rely on u to make money this time  :-*
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2006, 07:33:28 AM »
Challenge you to draw your Elliot Wave on KLCI since you claim mine is a new theory.
Recommendations? Simple. Futures.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2006, 02:13:59 PM »
Challenge you to draw your Elliot Wave on KLCI since you claim mine is a new theory.
Recommendations? Simple. Futures.

it seems like u still dun understand the hammer and screwdriver story, yet get angry and bal bla bla... hahahha, anyway, let me tell u the reasons (so hope u can understand wat i write here becoz i dun wan to explain any further since i perceive discussing theories and methods as a waste of time).

first of all, EW numbered cant be forced to fit into a graph, and secondly the number will possibily keep changing once the graph of the next few days change.

so, effectively, not all graph able to be labeled with EW number, particularly, if u give a graph of short time period.

to be successfully label an advancing wave, the peak of 5 should be higher than peak 3 and higher than peak 1, and to guide the labeling of wave 3, we should choose the longest advancing wave as number 3.

labeling of peak 5 which could be lower than peak 3 is extremeely rare, and chartist only label it when there is no other choice of labeling wave 1, 3, 5 in the chart. (in ur case, u should zoom up the chart to find a peak 5, or u can conclude that peak 5 havent happen yet and possible to happen in future, but never never fix the time period and force the number 5, as it is highly possible that the whole wave in ur chart is an extended peak 1 or extended peak 5)

this is why after such a long history, Pretcher could only found 2 examples on the so called truncated peak 5.

see, to label an EW, most of the time, we have to zoom up the chart, choose a long period and then label acocrdingly. it could not be denied that different time period could produce different numbering, and thus long term chart is more relevant for EW. this characteristic means EW numbering is highly subjectivity.

Instead, other famous tech analyst, like martin j pring, william o'neil even view EW as not reliable due to extreme subjectivity.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2006, 02:24:50 PM »
forget about hammer and screwdriver...

there are so many tech analysis method, each methods is relevant for each situation.

for example, RSI, DMI and occilator (such as ROC) techniques is used when the stock prices is in a trading zone.

MA, EMA, MACD, momentum indicator, and some breath indicator such as A/D line, are suitable for trending zone.

if u use the other way round, whipsaws will soon cause u to lost money.

for the chart u shown, EW is not relevant, it is in a trading zone, when simple resistance and support zone combined with RSI, with some osccilator convergenge or divergence, should help u to pin-point the turnaround.

EW wave should be used to capture the count of the trend and to spott when the correction suing fibonacci ratio or gann fans. (of coz ppl like japansese dog will only see number 5 wave and bet on the wave 5 since his research show that wave 5 is most reliable, and many other usage as well, but certainly not to help u profit from th chart u show)

wahtever the case, it sound not logic to label the chart iwth EW number. if u ask me to laebl, i would say "brother, not need to waste time lah, dun alway use hammer only to fix a table, because some part of the table need to be fixed by screwdriver"



The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2006, 02:29:50 PM »
ok lah, that is for all, i also feel lazy to write more because the whole story could take up more than 100 pages to write, and reference to many of the tech analysis journals i have collected must be done to convince ppl with actual quantitaive research done by scholars and researchers.

whatever, if u still unahppy, hahaahaha, assume i * all the while.  :o

so goo luck with EW ya. :-*
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2006, 07:07:42 PM »
If the situation requires a screwdriver and you use a hammer, what do you expect?
EW is not only about longer term wave. Shorter term waves can also happen.
Glad now you agree with me that Wave 5 COULD be LOWER than Wave 3.
Wave 3 should be the longest but may not be. But it will NOT be the shortest
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #25 on: August 09, 2006, 07:09:43 PM »
RSI MACD, etc. I ve always been using them.
I have already defaulted them in my Metastock.
In fact, I am also fond of Bollinger Bands and MFI.
Trying out new theories. See if could be fit into my trading style.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #26 on: August 09, 2006, 10:15:30 PM »
If the situation requires a screwdriver and you use a hammer, what do you expect?
EW is not only about longer term wave. Shorter term waves can also happen.
Glad now you agree with me that Wave 5 COULD be LOWER than Wave 3.
Wave 3 should be the longest but may not be. But it will NOT be the shortest


no, u get me wrong, i still insist in the graph u plot, peak 5 cannot be lower than peak 3. the extraordinary case can only be plot when wave 3  is too obvious but the peak 5 never happen.

long term short term all can use EW, the problem is graph u shown not fit.

ok lah, i think wat i say also u will not understand coz my english standard poor.

also waste time figuring out the holes in the graph.

that is all my comment on ur EW, may be i totally wrong and i need to start back from kindergarden in stock market.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #27 on: August 09, 2006, 10:21:16 PM »
RSI MACD, etc. I ve always been using them.
I have already defaulted them in my Metastock.
In fact, I am also fond of Bollinger Bands and MFI.
Trying out new theories. See if could be fit into my trading style.


2 year ago also i use all these ^ signals...and ^ metastock with programming script...

but now i downgraded already... :-\

i also never use metastcok...

just use pencil and graph paper.


so envy that u all know so many types of indicators...




The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2006, 12:16:18 AM »
I dun mind sending you my Metastock if you would stop being sarcastic to me :p
Plot me a graph of KLCI using EW. Then see if you agree Peak 5 lower than Peak 3.
I understand your points but still disagree with them. Just try plotting them.
If you want a screenshot of Metastock for KLCI, let me know which period.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #29 on: August 10, 2006, 02:08:56 AM »
I dun mind sending you my Metastock if you would stop being sarcastic to me :p
Plot me a graph of KLCI using EW. Then see if you agree Peak 5 lower than Peak 3.
I understand your points but still disagree with them. Just try plotting them.
If you want a screenshot of Metastock for KLCI, let me know which period.

hahahahah, metastock and the data from bizfun.cc  i also got.

just i dislike using software, i prefer drawing.
i dislike signals, because they are just mathematical formulae...

i use pencil, to feel, to touch, to listen and to draw what the market is doing. metastock cant help me do that.

i not try to sarcastic also, aiyo, brother, i sau pei already, dun dare to come out play too much.

anyway, for the graph, without zoom out to have a bigger look, frankly, i will put it as an extended 1 ...

then why not i just draw it?

becoz i found no reason (that means no profit) to number it.

even after u put up all the number, so wat, how u catch the pivotal point with the numbering (opps, guess u are using the mysterious fibonnaci ratio and gann fan)?

secondly, how do you adjust your REAL trade after the numbering of elliot wave change? (are u sudden in and sudden out every time the wave counts change? or may be u dun need to adjust at all coz ur prediction on wave count alwasy correct?)

and thirdly, how long u have been researching EW? which researchers/scholars works on EW u are using? (plz share if u have good quantitaive analysis and above 10 years period analysis on EW performance, i hope i can shout loud to ppl like william o'neal, gerald appel, alexander, martin pring and etc to proof that they are wrong on subjectivity of EW)

lastly, are u using real money to trade using the numbering of EW? (come on, if u making real money, plz share with me also)
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #30 on: August 10, 2006, 07:20:59 AM »
As I mentioned b4, just started EW.
Years of experience to me is unimportant.
Main thing is how much one grasp the concept.
Anyway like I said, testing out EW.

Profit in numbering?
OH YES THERE IS.
I am in the futures market.
So, if EW works, then huge money.
EW doesnt work, huge losses.
Real money.

Extended Wave 1? Maybe.
But then I argue that that is the LONGER TERM cycle.
As you already know EW has longer term cycle and shorter term cycles.

P/S For stocks, I would never use EW, not in Msian market anyway.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #31 on: August 13, 2006, 10:42:53 PM »
Btw, I was at Borders today and apparently, the tutorial in Elliott Wave International (http://www.elliottwave.com/club) is word by word the same as the content in a book by Pretcher - that means the tutorial is worth RM220!!! Hence I strongly urge all members to register there and start the tutorial!!!
« Last Edit: August 13, 2006, 10:44:53 PM by Maxforce »
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Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #32 on: August 13, 2006, 10:59:01 PM »
Btw, I was at Borders today and apparently, the tutorial in Elliott Wave International (http://www.elliottwave.com/club) is word by word the same as the content in a book by Pretcher - that means the tutorial is worth RM220!!! Hence I strongly urge all members to register there and start the tutorial!!!


wat lah, where got so expensive.. (u come pinjam from me and u take for xxx only cost RM10)
and books got more info than tutorial.

somemore the true elliot wave usage and application, if anyone wish to learn it, should refer to Murphy one...even CNT sylubus also focus on Murphy's book

however, for Malaysian Elliot Wave for Stock and Future, u all should learn from Maxforce, Dean of KLSE.

hahaha, dun know why i like to shoot u in forum...
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2006, 12:00:25 AM »
Like ez target hor?
Basket... look at Pretcher's book today at Borders. Maybe Borders overcharge - no idea
but can tell you memang I saw RM220.
AND more importantly on the chapter truncation, it was WORD BY WORD same with the one in the Elliott Wave International Tutorial.
And by the way, EWI was established by Pretcher.
Dun simply tembak oledi. Waste bullet oni. I got wear bulletproof vest wan.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #34 on: August 14, 2006, 01:23:20 AM »
Like ez target hor?
Basket... look at Pretcher's book today at Borders. Maybe Borders overcharge - no idea
but can tell you memang I saw RM220.
AND more importantly on the chapter truncation, it was WORD BY WORD same with the one in the Elliott Wave International Tutorial.
And by the way, EWI was established by Pretcher.
Dun simply tembak oledi. Waste bullet oni. I got wear bulletproof vest wan.

of coz EWI by Pretcher, and the book RM2xx i also know...

waste money buy the EW book.

better buy buku latihan from wermie, "48 sure fire tips" to do.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #35 on: August 14, 2006, 06:58:19 AM »
???? self contradictory???
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Calvin Wong

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #36 on: September 18, 2006, 12:18:30 AM »
Can Elliot Wave be used to predict for the longer term or is it just short term?

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #37 on: September 18, 2006, 12:22:29 AM »
Shorter term more accurate for KLCI.
Been trying to identify the master trend/cycle but failed to do so despite having data from 1977.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Calvin Wong

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #38 on: September 18, 2006, 12:32:30 AM »
Shorter term more accurate for KLCI.
Been trying to identify the master trend/cycle but failed to do so despite having data from 1977.


So does this mean it doesn't work on Malaysian stocks?

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #39 on: September 18, 2006, 12:56:13 AM »
Either that, or I dont know how to use it yet - for the master cycle.
However, for shorter term trend - it is working.
P/S: To profit from the market on this analysis, shorter term trend will be of more significance. The longer term trend is also important, though not as important as the shorter term trend. This is as a safeguard of any major reversal patterns. And also to indicate general direction.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline Maxforce

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Re: In search of Elliot Wave Theory
« Reply #40 on: September 18, 2006, 12:57:42 AM »
For stocks, I believe this theory would not be applicable here in Msia due to the liquidity issue.
Comparing Msian market and US market, liquidity is of a major difference.
This is also why we should not apply techniques blindly.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.