Author Topic: Economy downturn in the corner?  (Read 3184 times)

Offline Salahdin

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Economy downturn in the corner?
« on: September 19, 2006, 10:24:34 PM »
As I'm not a good economist, therefore I seek the consultation of some gurus here regarding the direction of our country, region & world economy in the next 6 months.

Seemed like lots of indication had pointed to very bad omen for our economy.  Although the SMIs had suffered from slowdown for months, the decision by Intel to retrenchment seemed to follow the trend of the pre-economic depression days of 1997.

Some of my investors friends are looking up on the Intel middle management decision of retrenchment as a bad sign for our economy.  How far is it true?  There are rumours around.

I understand that economy cycle last around 7-8 years but the current count is 9 years since the 1997 event.  Any idea on the truth behind those claims?
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Offline Maxforce

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Re: Economy downturn in the corner?
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2006, 10:41:55 PM »
Normal economist predicts 7-8 years but as we all know, this is JUST theory.
In real life its closer to 10 years.
Lets think back 1997/98
Then it was 1987/88 (For US, it started in 1986/87)
Then it was 1980/81 (US)
And 1970/71 (US)

My prediction for our economy - will BOOM in 2007/8.
Crash predicted in 2009/2010.

In the last 1997/98 crash, rumors on crash started in 1994!!!???
It was a BOOM time and yet, rumors were around that crash is coming.
The sky did not fall in 1994.
BOOM extended to 1995.
Sustained runs to 1996.
In fact early 1997 was kind of okay, not bad.
Then came Sep/Oct - traditionally when all crash begins
So, since now we re in Sep/Oct, it is no wonder that the rumor begins again.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline jeybon

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Re: Economy downturn in the corner?
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2006, 11:46:51 PM »
I heard about that Intel rumours too.  Normally when economy enterred booming period, how long would it usually last?  It was the fear that always kept people away from opportunities.Huh...

Offline julez.lim

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Re: Economy downturn in the corner?
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2006, 09:05:54 AM »
Nobody can predict the future.. Don't waste too much time worrying.
You are looking at Intel, y not look at AMD? AMD gained business from Dell, better market share (if not mistaken)... It's a tale of 2 rivals...

Furthermore, there are numerous industries out there... If you look at Malaysian economy, not all industries are flourishing... some good, some moderate and some bad. But still, things seem to be doing well...

Offline bebop

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Re: Economy downturn in the corner?
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2006, 10:43:24 PM »
Intel schmintel..  Retrenchment is not a big deal in the economy since there's only a few way company can increase profit to attract investors. Either raise their selling price (which would make their customer run away) or cut cost (one of them is retrenchment and forcing each worker to do 2 to 3 person's job).

To me it's no sign of economy downturn. Today's market is different from 97. In 97, people believed in rumors, what other people say because the lack of information. Today we have the internet and the internet commerce area has peaked. If any economy downturn comes, it'll still not be as bad as it was as businesses has globalised. Most business nowadays has activities in other countries which might not be as effected as it was when it was focused locally in the past. In the past, people rely on magazines, newspapers which focuses to influence the person's decision. Today we have thousands of resources, people do their own research. A certain industry may go up or down, but not the entire market.

All signs shows a strong economy except for the slow down in the IT industry because mostly "must haves" has already been implemented. Common sense. :) . Intel is losing market share, thus losing profit and revenues. To increase back the profit, retrench it's worker, cut costs. Another common sense.

Invest in telecommunication companies operating in India, common sense. 1 Million mobile user signs up everyday and would go on at least for the next 6 month. Speculate on emerging technologies such as nano carbon tubes for water filtration as it'll be a cheap way to product clean, drinkable water. Commodities go for germanium, silicon valley ran out of silicon, researches already find ways to use germanium to enhance microprocessors and find silicon germanium runs more effectively compare to pure silicon wafers. There are so much more signs of future growing industry and sectors. Small business grow big.. big business get small. It's just the norm in business.

Nobody can predict tomorrow. Do your research because nobody can tell you when will the economy fall.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2006, 10:47:46 PM by bebop »

Offline julez.lim

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Re: Economy downturn in the corner?
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2006, 09:31:51 AM »
From the recent bull in stock market, guess we need not worry bout any downturn for the time being, from my opinion...
Enjoy the never ending profits while it last :P

Take note of those companies that have yet to come out their 3rd quarter report...