Poll

Which best describes your feelings about investing?

"Better safe than sorry."
"Moderation in all things."
"Nothing ventured, nothing gained."

Author Topic: 3i Investing Whispers  (Read 817048 times)

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10050 on: November 22, 2017, 01:41:08 PM »
When we are investing peanuts, we must sapu peanut shares n peanut warrants like WB, korrect ?  :D :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10051 on: November 23, 2017, 08:02:16 PM »
"I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could." (Warren Buffett)

"If I were running $1 million, or $10 million for that matter, I'd be fully invested.  The highest rates of return I've ever achieved were in the 1950's.  I killed the Dow.  You ought to see the numbers.  But I was investing peanuts back then.  It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money.  I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million.  No, I know I could.  I guarantee that."

 -  Warren Buffett, Businessweek, 1999.

In the 1950's, WB played in the mkt like our DR KIM n made 50% a yr bcos his fund was small like our DR KIM's fund.



Dr Kim is no Buffett. 

Letís not kid ourselves here.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10052 on: November 23, 2017, 08:04:10 PM »
When we are investing peanuts, we must sapu peanut shares n peanut warrants like WB, korrect ?  :D :D :D


Stay with quality.

Pay a fair price.

Long term focus.


99.9% certain, you will not lose your capital, have income and some capital appreciation.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10053 on: November 23, 2017, 09:34:39 PM »
A mistake that makes you humble is better than an achievement that makes you arrogant.


 :thumbsup: :cash: :clap:
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online ahbah

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10054 on: November 24, 2017, 10:54:28 AM »
A mistake that makes you humble is better than an achievement that makes you arrogant.


 :thumbsup: :cash: :clap:

I still want achievement bcos achievement got give me nasi lemak to eat ma.  :D :D :D

Mistakes always make me  :'( :sweat: :phew:, guaranti cannot be better than achievement  :D :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10055 on: November 26, 2017, 09:57:58 PM »
I still want achievement bcos achievement got give me nasi lemak to eat ma.  :D :D :D

Mistakes always make me  :'( :sweat: :phew:, guaranti cannot be better than achievement  :D :D :D


Yes, hopefully you have more achievements than mistakes.

But the few mistakes are great teachers. 

You probably will learn a bigger lesson from your mistakes than your successes.

Be humbled by our mistakes and do not be arrogant by our successes.

Pride comes before a fall.

Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10056 on: November 27, 2017, 12:10:57 AM »
Balancing Assets and Earnings

Every set of rules in Graham's real framework also includes a check for assets. This formula has no such checks.

For example, the Graham Number ó the price calculation for Defensive quality stocks ó is calculated as:


Services and other asset-light companies were common in Graham's time. In a calculation such as the above, lower assets can be offset by higher earnings and vice versa.

Graham designed a comprehensive, well-balanced framework that could assess all types of companies.

On the other hand, the Benjamin Graham Formula is only useful for studying past misjudgments of growth expectations by the market. It cannot be used to calculate present intrinsic values, or to predict future growth rates.


https://www.serenitystocks.com/benjamin-graham-formula
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10057 on: November 27, 2017, 12:12:07 AM »



Balancing Assets and Earnings

Every set of rules in Graham's real framework also includes a check for assets. This formula has no such checks.

For example, the Graham Number ó the price calculation for Defensive quality stocks ó is calculated as:


Services and other asset-light companies were common in Graham's time. In a calculation such as the above, lower assets can be offset by higher earnings and vice versa.

Graham designed a comprehensive, well-balanced framework that could assess all types of companies.

On the other hand, the Benjamin Graham Formula is only useful for studying past misjudgments of growth expectations by the market. It cannot be used to calculate present intrinsic values, or to predict future growth rates.


https://www.serenitystocks.com/benjamin-graham-formula
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10058 on: November 27, 2017, 10:11:31 AM »
Top Glove Corporation Berhad - To Become The Largest Surgical Glove Player
Author: PublicInvest   |    Publish date: Mon, 27 Nov 2017, 09:52 AM

Top Glove has been strategically improving its performance through both organic and inorganic growth. The announcement of the Groupís term sheet agreement (TSA) with Adventa Capital Pte. Ltd. (ACPL) on 24 November 2017 to acquire the equity interest in Aspion Sdn. Bhd., a wholly owned subsidiary of ACPL is therefore one of the plans the Group has strategised to expand its footprint. We are positive on this plan, as Top Glove can immediately grow its surgical gloves offering which commands higher margins, currently accounting only c.2% of the Groupís total sales. We are upgrading our view on Top Glove to Outperform with a higher TP of RM7.86 based on our DCF valuation which corresponds to a forward 20.8x PE for FY18F earnings, below our average gloves portfolio FY18F PE of 26.9x. Our re rating is premised on Top Gloveís focus on enhancing its efficiencies which will aid in reducing costs, while through merger and acquisition (M&A) activities would expand its capacities and capabilities. A recent meeting with Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai and the Groupís management team reaffirmed our views that the Group is poised for a new era of growth.

The purchase consideration, we estimate, would be between to c.RM1.3bn to RM1.4bn, considering

i) targeted earnings of Aspion and its subsidiaries of at least RM80.0m collectively for FYE 31 October 2018;
 ii) contemplated guarantee by ACPL to reimburse Top Glove for any shortfall in the 2018 target earnings;
 iii) contemplated P/E multiple of between 16x to 18x of the 2018 target earnings; and
 iv) Top Gloveís strategy to grow inorganically.


We understand the acquisition will be funded by a combination of cash and issuance of no more than 10% in value of the purchase consideration of new shares, whereby the price will be determined at a later date.


Aspionís integration will include maintaining the Groupís existing leadership helmed by Low Chin Guan and his management team. The TSA is exclusive until 15 January 2018 and thus should see the acquisition completed by February 2018. Aspion has a current total capacity of c.4.8bn pcs/yr (Examination - 3.4bn pcs/yr, Surgical Ė 1.5bn pcs/yr) with ongoing plans to increase to c.6.0bn pcs/yr by 2019 with higher production of surgical gloves (Examination Ė 2.9bn pcs/yr, Surgical Ė 3.0bn pcs/yr).

About Aspion. An investment holding company where its subsidiaries are involved in the manufacturing and distribution of surgical gloves, medical gloves, medical examination gloves and protection gloves, Aspion commands a surgical glove global market share of c.17%, translating to c.27% of Malaysiaís total surgical glove exports. Combining both Top Glove and Aspionís surgical gloves capacity, would equate to c.29% of the worldís total surgical market share.

Aspion geographical sales. Main markets are 35% to 40% to US, Western Europe and Japan. The remaining sales are to emerging markets. The acquisition would thus create additional exposure for Top Glove to penetrate into developing markets.

Acquisition rationale. In line with the Groupís strategy to sustainably grow the Groupís gloves business. Top Glove has been continuously exploring both organic and inorganic expansion plans through the construction of new facilities, merging and acquiring existing businesses that are synergistic the Groupís current operations. The proposed acquisition of Aspion is thus significant in growing Top Gloveís current surgical product offering especially in the specialised surgical gloves as Top Gloveís surgical products are mainly for general surgical application. The surgical gloves sales are c.2% of the Groupís current sales as of FYE17. Upon the successful acquisition of Aspion, Top Gloveís would be expected to expand its current surgical glove production and also its product range offering. It is moreover beneficial to leverage on Aspionís human capabilities, technologies and innovations coupled with valued customer and suppliers. This would ultimately strengthen Top Gloveís growth profile and long-term value creation potential. We have adjusted our revenue higher by between 12% and 14%, and earnings between 23% and 25% for FY18F-FY20F to account for the new capacity.

To recap, Managementís plans of achieving a 30% global market share by 2020 continues to be underpinned by its robust expansion plans organically, and with this inorganic strategy to acquire Aspion would enhance this vision further. Ongoing plans also include the construction of 2 new manufacturing facilities F31 and F32 which will commence operations by March and December 2018 respectively, with a production capacity of 2.8bn and 4.8bn gloves per annum. By December 2018, Top Glove is estimated to have 628 production lines, with 59.7bn gloves per annum capacity. Top Glove has also commenced preparations for its condom manufacturing facility, expected to be operational in 2018.

Condom manufacturing facility. We understand the Group is also in the midst of renovating an existing factory and installing machines. The operations will begin producing for an OEM and is targeted to construct up to 20 lines within 2 years with an estimated capacity of 1bn pcs/year of condoms for the beginning stage.

Upgrade to Outperform. Our recommendation on Top Glove with a higher TP of RM7.86 based on our DCF approach is premised on i) better cost efficiencies reflected through improving PAT margins (10.9% - 4QFY17 vs. 9.1% - 4QFY16), ii) immediate increase in total capacity through Aspion which would add c.4.8bn pcs/yr, iii) growing surgical gloves offering to establish the Group as the largest surgical glove exporter in Malaysia and one of the largest surgical glove manufacturers globally, and iv) growth in surgical products would aid in enhancing bottom-line margins further.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 27 Nov 2017
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10059 on: November 27, 2017, 10:14:51 AM »
TOPGLOV Financial Information
Market Capital (RM): 8.610b
Number of Share: 1.257b
EPS (cent): 26.47 *
P/E Ratio: 25.88
ROE (%): 16.44
Dividend (cent): 14.500 ^
Dividend Yield (%): 2.12
Dividend Policy (%): 50 Details
NTA (RM): 1.610
Par Value (RM): 0.500



Top Glove Corporation Berhad - To Become The Largest Surgical Glove Player
Author: PublicInvest   |    Publish date: Mon, 27 Nov 2017, 09:52 AM

Top Glove has been strategically improving its performance through both organic and inorganic growth. The announcement of the Groupís term sheet agreement (TSA) with Adventa Capital Pte. Ltd. (ACPL) on 24 November 2017 to acquire the equity interest in Aspion Sdn. Bhd., a wholly owned subsidiary of ACPL is therefore one of the plans the Group has strategised to expand its footprint. We are positive on this plan, as Top Glove can immediately grow its surgical gloves offering which commands higher margins, currently accounting only c.2% of the Groupís total sales. We are upgrading our view on Top Glove to Outperform with a higher TP of RM7.86 based on our DCF valuation which corresponds to a forward 20.8x PE for FY18F earnings, below our average gloves portfolio FY18F PE of 26.9x. Our re rating is premised on Top Gloveís focus on enhancing its efficiencies which will aid in reducing costs, while through merger and acquisition (M&A) activities would expand its capacities and capabilities. A recent meeting with Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai and the Groupís management team reaffirmed our views that the Group is poised for a new era of growth.

The purchase consideration, we estimate, would be between to c.RM1.3bn to RM1.4bn, considering

i) targeted earnings of Aspion and its subsidiaries of at least RM80.0m collectively for FYE 31 October 2018;
 ii) contemplated guarantee by ACPL to reimburse Top Glove for any shortfall in the 2018 target earnings;
 iii) contemplated P/E multiple of between 16x to 18x of the 2018 target earnings; and
 iv) Top Gloveís strategy to grow inorganically.


We understand the acquisition will be funded by a combination of cash and issuance of no more than 10% in value of the purchase consideration of new shares, whereby the price will be determined at a later date.


Aspionís integration will include maintaining the Groupís existing leadership helmed by Low Chin Guan and his management team. The TSA is exclusive until 15 January 2018 and thus should see the acquisition completed by February 2018. Aspion has a current total capacity of c.4.8bn pcs/yr (Examination - 3.4bn pcs/yr, Surgical Ė 1.5bn pcs/yr) with ongoing plans to increase to c.6.0bn pcs/yr by 2019 with higher production of surgical gloves (Examination Ė 2.9bn pcs/yr, Surgical Ė 3.0bn pcs/yr).

About Aspion. An investment holding company where its subsidiaries are involved in the manufacturing and distribution of surgical gloves, medical gloves, medical examination gloves and protection gloves, Aspion commands a surgical glove global market share of c.17%, translating to c.27% of Malaysiaís total surgical glove exports. Combining both Top Glove and Aspionís surgical gloves capacity, would equate to c.29% of the worldís total surgical market share.

Aspion geographical sales. Main markets are 35% to 40% to US, Western Europe and Japan. The remaining sales are to emerging markets. The acquisition would thus create additional exposure for Top Glove to penetrate into developing markets.

Acquisition rationale. In line with the Groupís strategy to sustainably grow the Groupís gloves business. Top Glove has been continuously exploring both organic and inorganic expansion plans through the construction of new facilities, merging and acquiring existing businesses that are synergistic the Groupís current operations. The proposed acquisition of Aspion is thus significant in growing Top Gloveís current surgical product offering especially in the specialised surgical gloves as Top Gloveís surgical products are mainly for general surgical application. The surgical gloves sales are c.2% of the Groupís current sales as of FYE17. Upon the successful acquisition of Aspion, Top Gloveís would be expected to expand its current surgical glove production and also its product range offering. It is moreover beneficial to leverage on Aspionís human capabilities, technologies and innovations coupled with valued customer and suppliers. This would ultimately strengthen Top Gloveís growth profile and long-term value creation potential. We have adjusted our revenue higher by between 12% and 14%, and earnings between 23% and 25% for FY18F-FY20F to account for the new capacity.

To recap, Managementís plans of achieving a 30% global market share by 2020 continues to be underpinned by its robust expansion plans organically, and with this inorganic strategy to acquire Aspion would enhance this vision further. Ongoing plans also include the construction of 2 new manufacturing facilities F31 and F32 which will commence operations by March and December 2018 respectively, with a production capacity of 2.8bn and 4.8bn gloves per annum. By December 2018, Top Glove is estimated to have 628 production lines, with 59.7bn gloves per annum capacity. Top Glove has also commenced preparations for its condom manufacturing facility, expected to be operational in 2018.

Condom manufacturing facility. We understand the Group is also in the midst of renovating an existing factory and installing machines. The operations will begin producing for an OEM and is targeted to construct up to 20 lines within 2 years with an estimated capacity of 1bn pcs/year of condoms for the beginning stage.

Upgrade to Outperform. Our recommendation on Top Glove with a higher TP of RM7.86 based on our DCF approach is premised on i) better cost efficiencies reflected through improving PAT margins (10.9% - 4QFY17 vs. 9.1% - 4QFY16), ii) immediate increase in total capacity through Aspion which would add c.4.8bn pcs/yr, iii) growing surgical gloves offering to establish the Group as the largest surgical glove exporter in Malaysia and one of the largest surgical glove manufacturers globally, and iv) growth in surgical products would aid in enhancing bottom-line margins further.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 27 Nov 2017
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10060 on: November 27, 2017, 12:13:20 PM »
Market sentiment is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Market sentiment is the feeling or tone of a market, or its crowd psychology, as revealed through the activity and price movement of the securities traded in that market.

Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10061 on: November 27, 2017, 12:20:21 PM »
Market sentiment is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Market sentiment is the feeling or tone of a market, or its crowd psychology, as revealed through the activity and price movement of the securities traded in that market.



Which one U choose ?  :D :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10062 on: November 27, 2017, 01:32:53 PM »


The Investor Sentiment Wheel Infographic

The Investor Sentiment Wheel shows the correlation of the market cycle and investorsí sentiment.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10063 on: November 27, 2017, 01:34:41 PM »
Which one U choose ?  :D :D :D


If you are going to be a long term investor, still putting in more money into the market over the next 30 years, having an optimistic view of the stock market is appropriate and the better choice.

Over the long term, the stock market has always been higher than its past.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10064 on: November 27, 2017, 01:36:45 PM »


Investor sentiment chart
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online ahbah

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10065 on: November 27, 2017, 02:32:50 PM »
Where is our Bursa now in the investment sentiment chart ?  :D :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10066 on: November 27, 2017, 03:12:21 PM »
How to recognise values emerging in a bear market.

Prices fell but value intact

Stock prices have fallen sharply.
- Banks are trading at 1x book value,
- property stocks sold at 50% discount from net asset value,
- utility stocks trading at single-digit price-earnings ratio providing an earnings yield of more than 10% net of tax and
- there are many good stocks trading at dividend yield of 2x bank interest rates.
:phew: :phew:...................know value mean like marahkoff,falling potatoes ,soon tadpoled!!! :sweat: :sweat: :'(

Offline ongchef

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10067 on: November 27, 2017, 04:36:16 PM »
:phew: :phew:...................know value mean like marahkoff,falling potatoes ,soon tadpoled!!! :sweat: :sweat: :'(
:S..........falling knives not so painful,falling potato follow mas record!! :'( :'(

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10068 on: November 27, 2017, 10:32:08 PM »


Warren Buffett:  How to value an asset?
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10069 on: November 27, 2017, 10:33:27 PM »
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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  • Posts: 18,208
Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10070 on: November 27, 2017, 10:39:14 PM »
Market Price and intrinsic value often follow very different paths-sometimes for extended periods-but eventually they meet
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

  • Marquess
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  • Posts: 18,208
Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10071 on: November 28, 2017, 12:21:51 AM »
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

  • Marquess
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  • Posts: 18,208
Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10072 on: November 28, 2017, 12:26:41 AM »
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10073 on: November 28, 2017, 09:00:53 AM »
Dedicated to those who are not in this game and who are enjoying their coffees observing those in the game.

Dedicated also to those in this game.


1. Few in the game know what the value of an asset is and their estimating is of little use. They are only looking at the price, the only number they care which they can act on.

2. They try to guess the direction the price will move in the next period(s) and trade ahead of the movement. To win the game, they have to be right more often than wrong about the direction and to exit before the winds shift. So far, Hengyuan's price has risen and they are always mindful of when to exit, hopefully before the winds shift.

3. They believe price is determined by demand and supply which in turn are affected by mood and momentum. These are their key drivers.

4. They are acutely conscious of the information effect. Incremental information (news, stories, rumours) that shifts the mood will move the price, even if it has no real consequences for long term value. Thus, a lot of promotion regularly and those with unfavourable news are countered ferociously at times.

5. Their tools of the game include technical indicators, price charts and investor psychology. See how often references were given to these in this forum. "The trend remains, the indicators indicated, etc. " For students of behavioural finance, the wealth of investor psychology in the game is most exciting and rich.

6. For the game to be more exciting, get the boys to play. Get a super investor to be in the game. Get a lot of followers to be engaged in the game. They know with lots of money and lots of followers, they can generate or have the capacity to move prices.

7. For those in the game, their biggest danger is momentum shifts. Momentum shifts can occur quickly wiping out months of profits in a few hours.

8. The most delusional player in this game is the person who is trading the prices based on value. We already have declared who are the smart investors in this forum. How many are on this list and how many are not? BFSSTS is a game some love to play.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online ahbah

  • Duke
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  • Posts: 30,331
  • You got like my 2 best friends ?
Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10074 on: November 28, 2017, 10:35:07 AM »
Got brokerage houses arrange the mkt games to be played with fake moni. Like that, where got oomph lah.

Winners are not true winners bcos they play with no emotion, with kampong kids fun onli.  :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10075 on: November 28, 2017, 10:41:46 AM »
I play the mkt with my hard earn nasi lemak moni. I got tons of fun n also got tons of emotion !  :D :D :D

If I lose moni, my perut go kosong  :'( :'( :'(

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10076 on: November 30, 2017, 08:08:37 AM »
An important reason why arbitrage is limited is that movements in investor sentiment are in part unpredictable, and therefore arbitrageurs betting against mispricing run the risk, at least in the short run, that investor sentiment becomes more extreme and prices move even further away from fundamental value.

As a consequence of such Ďnoise trader risk,í arbitrage positions can lose money in the short run.

When arbitrageurs are risk-averse, leveraged, or manage other peopleís money and run the risk of losing funds under management when performance is poor, the risk of deepening mispricing reduces the size of the positions they take. Hence, arbitrage fails to eliminate the mispricing completely and investor sentiment affects security prices in equilibrium.

Investor sentiment is indeed in part unpredictable
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10077 on: November 30, 2017, 08:16:53 AM »
An important manifestation of the representativeness heuristic, discussed in detail by Tversky and Kahneman, is that people think they see patterns in truly random sequences. This aspect of the representativeness heuristic is suggestive of the overreaction evidence.

When a company has a consistent history of earnings growth over several years, accompanied as it may be by salient and enthusiastic descriptions of its products and management, investors might conclude that the past history is representative of an underlying earnings growth potential.

While a consistent pattern of high growth may be nothing more than a random draw for a few lucky firms, investors see Ďorder among
chaosí and infer from the in-sample growth path that the firm belongs to a small and distinct population of firms whose earnings just keep growing.

As a consequence,investors using the representativeness heuristic might disregard the reality that a history of high earnings growth is unlikely to repeat itself; they will overvalue the company, and be disappointed in the future when the forecasted earnings growth fails to materialize. This, of course, is what overreaction is all about.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10078 on: November 30, 2017, 05:22:49 PM »
What cause the big dump at today 4.50pm closing like at Public Bank, Genting closing today ?  :nod: :shake:

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10079 on: November 30, 2017, 11:51:47 PM »
 :shake: :shake:.............told u how many times!!! :sweat: :sweat:.........IQ very high,veri  panlai raiding until 189 LOH!!! :(........safety of margin can get peanut 5 sen MAH!!! :headbang: :headbang: :..........now ,Monday come 1.34 lagi bolih tahan kah???!!! :'( :'(

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10080 on: December 01, 2017, 12:04:23 AM »
 :S,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,worang kaya with dollars seehum kacang as safety margin MAH!!!! :speechless:,......until why  why, buaya sulah lali lali until 194,got LED but why why end of tunnel lagi gelap gelap LOH!!! :'( :'(

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10081 on: December 01, 2017, 10:32:44 AM »
A SPECIAL LESSON FOR 3iii TO LEARN LOH....!!

PLEASE RESTUDY WHAT WHEN WRONG WITH YOUR ANALYSIS MAH...!!


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Re: Hengyuan
ę Reply #83 on: August 06, 2017, 01:04:45 PM Ľ

    Quote

Quote from: iiinvestsmart on August 06, 2017, 12:55:04 PM

    For those who are rational, they will understand why Petdag is trading at a higher PE than Hengyuan or PetronM.

    I have already written on the business of Hengyuan, a refinery.

    To understand further, let us look at the guidance provided by the management of Hengyuan.

    Their most important statement (which dishonest raider may not highlight) is:

    "However, refining margins are expected to remain UNCERTAIN"


The guidance from management is just conservative & general mah...!!

U think if HRC very good, the management guide daring like this meh ?

"Yes think big loh...!!
Shoot high mah....if do not hit Rm 70.00 but hit Rm 22 to 42 per share also fair loh...!!"

OF COURSE CONSERVATIVE MANAGEMENT WILL NEVER GUIDE LIKE THIS LOH...!!

THE SAD THING IT IS THE TRUTH LOH....!!

EARNINGS OF HRC WILL EXPLODE LOH...!!
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Re: Hengyuan
ę Reply #84 on: August 06, 2017, 01:16:23 PM Ľ

    Quote

Unlike dishonest raider  :) , the management is only telling the truth.

If dishonest raider disagrees, just post the chart of the refining margins for all to see. :cash:

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10082 on: December 01, 2017, 10:57:29 PM »
When analysing a stock, we must take possible future changes of the business into account.

However, out primary aim is NOT so much to PROFIT from them as to GUARD AGAINST them.

You should view the business future as a HAZARD which your conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of your vindication.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10083 on: December 02, 2017, 07:50:19 AM »
Small successes almost invariably end in major disaster.

It is evident that the mental attitude of investors will affect the market price. 

More definitely, their mental attitudes are strongly affected by the price too. 

Therefore, achieving or maintaining satisfactory market price is very important.

But a stock cannot be a good investment at any price.

Promoting a fundamentally conservative point of view, is a valuable safeguard against speculative temptations.
 
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10084 on: December 02, 2017, 07:55:04 AM »
Investments is not an exact science.

Both individual skill (art) and chance are important factors in determining success or failure.

While emphasis is rightly placed on facts and figures, these are often manipulated by a sort of pseudo-analysis to support the delusions of the period.

Successful analysis and investing, requires a fairly rational atmosphere to work in and at least some stability of values to work with.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10085 on: December 02, 2017, 09:49:21 PM »
U got any course on investment, a simple science, further make esee for all to understand n to make esee moni ?  :D :D :D

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10086 on: December 04, 2017, 11:23:09 AM »
>>>Cloudboy i just give my point of view.....for those small investor as a references.....if the big investor,,..wan to play up the share till RM15 ...Rm 20...its their problem....Usually this kind of share,,,if the price retrace...hurting the most is small investor....big investor usually averagely also make big gains...

As i mentioned earlier...just my point of view.....Its ur $$..so make the wise decision ..All the best for Heng Yuan holders
04/12/2017 11:01<<<


 :thumbsup: :cash:


Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10087 on: December 13, 2017, 08:20:45 AM »
CNBC NEWS RELEASES
CNBC EXCLUSIVE: CNBC TRANSCRIPT: STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER SPEAKS WITH CNBCís KELLY EVANS TODAY

WHEN: Today, Tuesday, December 12, 2017

WHERE: CNBC's "Closing Bell"

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with Duquesne Capital Management's Former Chairman, President, & Founder Stanley Druckenmiller and CNBC's Kelly Evans. The interview aired on CNBC's "Closing Bell" (M-F 3PM-5PM) today, Tuesday, December 12, 2017. Following are links to video from the interview on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-feds-2-percent-inflation-target-needs-to-go.html?play=1, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/druckenmiller-central-banks-are-financial-worlds-darth-vader.html?play=1k, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/is-2-percent-inflation-at-all-times-absurd-billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-thinks-so.html?play=1.

All references must be sourced to CNBC.

KELLY EVANS: YEAH. GUYS, STAY RIGHT THERE. EARLIER TODAY I DID SPEAK WITH STAN DRUCKENMILLER WHO IS FIRED UP ABOUT THE FED AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S DECISION. TAKE A LISTEN.

STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: I THINK THE 2% INFLATION TARGET NEEDS TO GO. IF I WAS RUNNING THE FED, THANK GOD FOR THE Ė TO THE WORLD Ė I'M NOT RUNNING THE FED IT WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE IN MY TOP TEN CRITERIA. THE 2% INFLATION TARGET HAS SORT OF BECOME A RELIGION INITIATED BY THE PROFESSORS. AND IT'S THIS TARGET. THERE'S AN INTERESTING STORY ON THE FRONT PAGE OF "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" TODAY HOW AMAZON IS MAKING THE FED'S JOB MORE COMPLICATED. THIS BELIEF THAT 2% IS APPROPRIATE FOR ALL SEASONS AND ALL TIMES, TO ME IT'S PRETTY ABSURD. YOU TAKE THE LAST GREAT INNOVATION PERIOD WHICH IS THE LATE 1800s, WE HE DEFLATION FOR TEN OR 15 YEARS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY RAPID REAL GROWTH. IN THE '50s, I THINK INFLATION WAS 1%, MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER, FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DECADE. FED FUNDS WERE 4%. WE HAD RAPID GROWTH. THERE WAS NO CRISIS.

EVANS: SO WHAT YOU'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT IF INFLATION'S RUNNING Ė LET'S CALL IT 1%-- THAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED NORMAL AND FINE. AND THEY COULD STILL HAVE INTEREST RATES UP AT EVEN 4%?

DRUCKENMILLER: WHAT I'M REALLY SAYING, IF YOU TOOK THE TAYLOR RULE, AND I'M NOT A FAN OF RIGIDITY, A NORMAL INTEREST RATE GIVEN OUR ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD BE 4% INTERESTINGLY. WE'RE AT 1%. IN EUROPE, IT WOULD BE 2%. THEY'RE AT MINUS 40%. IN SWEDEN, IT WOULD BE 3.75%. THEY'RE AT MINUS 50%. THAT DOESN'T EVEN COUNT THE BOND BUYING WE'RE TALKING. BUT THIS IS ALL IN THE NAME OF THIS 2% INFLATION TARGET. AND Ė

EVANS: IF THEY'RE KEEPING RATES IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU KNOW, BARELY ABOVE ZERO, IN OTHER COUNTRIES, BELOW ZERO, WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF ALL THAT IS?

DRUCKENMILLER: WELL THE CONSEQUENCES ARE HUGE BECAUSE WE'VE DISTORTED MARKET SIGNALS AND WE'RE CAUSING ALL SORTS OF WHAT I WOULD CALL MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES.

EVANS: LIKE BITCOIN? OR IS THAT UNRELATED?

DRUCKENMILLER: NO, IT'S NOT UNRELATED AT ALL. BITCOIN, ART, WINE, EQUITIES, CREDIT, YOU NAME IT. EVERYTHING IS ONE WAY UP AND THERE ARE HUGE DISTORTIONS TAKING PLACE, AND IT'S ALL IN THE NAME OF THIS 2% INFLATION TARGET. AND WHEN YOU GET A MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, IT REALLY HINDERS GROWTH OVER THE LONGER TERM. LET ME GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE. LAST WEEK THERE WAS A COMPANY CALLED STEINHOFF.

EVANS: THAT'S COMPANY THAT'S THE PARENT OF MATTRESS FIRM IN THE U.S. NOW.

DRUCKENMILLER: YEAH. THIS IS A SOUTH AFRICAN FIRM. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE TO SHORT THE STOCK BECAUSE SOMEONE WAS KIND ENOUGH TO EXPLAIN TO ME THAT THESE GUYS MIGHT BE CROOKS. THERE WAS FRAUD AT BEST WHEN YOU LOOK ANOTHER WHAT WAS GOING ON AND IT'S A HUGE ROLL UP. AND THEY BUY THIS MATTRESS COMPANY IN THE U.S. FOR 100% OVER WHERE IT WAS TRADING. THEY'RE BORROWING MONEY, BIG ROLL-UP, BIG CREDIT. AND GUESS WHY THEY'RE ABLE TO ISSUE ALL THIS DEBT? BECAUSE THE ECB IS BUYING IT, OF A COMPANY THAT HALF THE STREET KNEW WAS A FRAUD AND IT'S GONNA GOING BANKRUPT. NOW MARIO DRAGHI WOULD TELL YOU, "NO PROBLEM. WE'RE MAKING MONEY OVERALL ON OUR PORTFOLIO. THE FACT THAT WE LOST 150, 160 MILLION ON THESE BONDS, IT COMES OUT IN THE WASH." THE POINT ISN'T WHETHER THE ECB IS MAKING MONEY. THE POINT IS WHETHER THEY ARE KEEPING CROOKS AND ZOMBIE COMPANIES ALIVE. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT JAPAN DID FOR 20 YEARS. IT HINDERS LONG-TERM GROWTH. COMPANIES LIKE THIS SHOULD NOT BE WALKING AROUND BORROWING MONEY. THAT'S KIND OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY. YOU SEE WHAT'S GOING ON IN BITCOIN.

EVANS: DO YOU OWN ANY CRYPTOCURRENCIES?

DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T OWN AN. OBVIOUSLY AS A TRADER I SHOULD HAVE BUT I ONLY TRADE WHAT I KNOW. WHAT I DO KNOW IS IT TAKES THE SAME AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO DO ONE BITCOIN TRANSACTION THAT IT TAKES TO POWER NINE HOMES IN THE U.S. BY 2019 IT'LL TAKE UP HALF THE ENERGY IN THE UNITED STATES TO RUN THE BITCOIN NETWORK.

EVANS: SOUNDS LIKE THE UTILITY COMPANIES ARE A BUY.

DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, I FIND IT INTERESTING THAT MOST PEOPLE IN BITCOIN ARE CLIMATE PEOPLE. THEY'RE WEST COAST PEOPLE. I DON'T QUITE GET THE CONNECTION. WE'VE GOT THIS ROGUE CURRENCY THAT WE'RE ALL GOING TO SUPPORT THAT IS DESTROYING THE CLIMATE IN SOME EXTENT, BUT WHATEVER.

EVANS: SO YOU'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE A POSITION ON WHETHER BITCOIN IS GOING TO GO UP TO $100,000 OR A MILLION OR WHATEVER THE--? I MEAN, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BUBBLES IT MUSTLOOK LIKE SOME OF THE GREATEST WE'VE EXPERIENCED.

DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT'S THE GREATEST WE'VE EVER EXPERIENCED. LOOK BITCOIN IS LIKE ANYTHING ELSE, IT'S WORTH WHAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR IT. AND RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY -- I HAVEN'T LOOKED IN THE LAST FIVE MINUTES SO IT COULD HAVE VARIED Ė BUT LET'S SAY THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY $17,000. THAT'S WHAT IT'S WORTH. THE TULIPS WERE WORTH WHEN PEOPLE WERE PAYING THAT FOR THEM. GOLD IS WHAT IT'S WORTH. WHAT I DO KNOW ABOUT BITCOIN IS THE CONCEPT THAT IT COULD EVER BE A MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BECAUSE YOU CAN'T DO TRANSACTIONS, PARTICULARLY RETAIL TRANSACTIONS WITH SOMETHING WITH THIS KIND OF VOLATILITY. BUT IF PEOPLE THINK BITCOIN IS WORTH $17,000, THAT'S WHAT IT'S WORTH TODAY.

EVANS: LAST THING ON THIS BEFORE YOU MOVE ON. THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT WANT TO HOLD BITCOIN BECAUSE THEY'RE AS CRITICAL AS THE FED AND CENTRAL BANKS AS YOU ARE. SO IF THEY AGREE WITH YOUR PHILOSOPHY THAT CENTRAL BANKS ARE SCREWING THIS UP THEN WHAT WOULD BE A BETTER WAY TO EXPRESS THAT THAN HOLDING BITCOIN?

DRUCKENMILLER: THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION. I THINK AT SOME POINT FIGURE OUT WHEN THIS IS GOING TO END. AND THEN EITHER GET OUT OR GO SHORT. BECAUSE, BY THE WAY, WHEN THIS ENDS AND IT WILL, I'M TALKING ABOUT THIS MONETARY RADICALISM PERIOD WE'RE IN, BITCOIN WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN WITH THE REST OF THE STUFF.

EVANS: HOW HAS THE YEAR BEEN FOR YOU?

DRUCKENMILLER: I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT'S PROBABLY THE WORST YEAR I'VE HAD RELATIVE TO THE SET OF OPPORTUNITIES OUT THERE. I CAN NEVER RECALL. I MEAN, FOR ME, 1997 WAS CLOSE.

EVANS: BUT THAT WAS AN ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS.

DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, THAT WAS PRETTY GOOD OPPORTUNITY. I HAVE DONE VERY WELL IN STOCKS. I'VE REALLY, REALLY MISTRADED MACRO. IT'S GOING TO BE -- IF IT WAS UP TO MACRO, I'D HAVE MY FIRST DOWN YEAR BUT STOCKS HAVE BAILED ME OUT, SO BARRING A MIRACLE, THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

EVANS: BUT YOU'RE NOT UP 30%?

DRUCKENMILLER: I'M NOT UP ANYWHERE NEAR 30%. I'M NOT UP DOUBLE DIGITS. YOU KNOW, I'M HAVING, AGAIN, RELATIVE THE OPPORTUNITY A TERRIBLE YEAR, IT'S GOING TO BE MY FIRST Ė BARRING A MIRACLE IT'S GOING TO BE MY FIRST DOWN YEAR IN CURRENCIES EVER.

EVANS: I POINTED OUT REPEATEDLY THE FACT THE U.S. DOLLAR IS SO WEAK. WOULD THAT BE ONE EXAMPLE OR ARE WE TALKING ABOUT OTHER THINGS?

DRUCKENMILLER: NO. IT'S JUST ME JUST OVERTRADING AND BEING COLD AT THE WRONG TIME AND SINCE IT'S BEEN MY BREAD AND BUTTER FOR YEARS, I TELL YOU OVERALLOCATING EXPOSURE THERE RELATIVE TO EQUITIES. SOMEBODY ON YOUR NETWORK SAID A WEEK AGO ALL YOU HAD TO DO THIS YEAR WAS ROLL OUT OF BED AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE UP 20% OR 30%. APPARENTLY I GOT OUT OF THE WRONG SIDE OF THE BED.

WILFRED FROST: WOW. A BIG ADMISSION FROM HIM THERE ON THE PERFORMANCE FRONT.

EVANS: SELF-DEPRECATING. IT'S ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO HEAR FROM MR. DRUCKENMILLER. AND ALSO OF COURSE TO GET HIS VIEW ON THESE THINGS.

-0-

EVANS: YEAH. APPLE IS ONE OF THE MOST-LOVED STOCKS, MOVING ON.BUT NOT FOR HEDGE FUND TITAN STAN DRUCKENMILLER. HERE IS WHY:

EVANS: WHAT ABOUT APPLE IN THAT CASE?

DRUCKENMILLER: APPLE I DON'T FIND NEAR AS EXCITING AS SAY AMAZON, FACEBOOK, OR GOOGLE. IT'S A HARDWARE COMPANY. I UNDERSTAND THEY HAVE AN APP PLATFORM, BUT --

EVANS: DO YOU USE THEIR PRODUCTS, DO YOU CONSIDER THEM GREAT PRODUCTS?

DRUCKENMILLER: I DO THINK THEY'RE GREAT PRODUCTS, BUT THEY'RE PROBABLY NO BETTER THAN'S SAMSUNG BUT THEY HAVE A GREAT BRAND. I JUST THINK Ė I DON'T SEE THE UNDEREARNING THAT I SEE IN OTHER COMPANIES, IF ANYTHING THEY'RE PROBABLY OVEREARNING IN TERMS OF THE MARGIN THEY'RE MAKING. SO I DON'T OWN THAT ONE, I'M NOT SHORT IT.

-0-

EVANS: EARLIER TODAY I SAT DOWN WITH DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE CEO STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, HERE ARE HIS THOUGHTS ON THE TAX BILL:

DRUCKENMILLER: ON YOUR NETWORK THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION, I SAID I WAS VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR DEREGULATION AND TAX REFORM. I THOUGHT THERE WAS A GOOD CHANCE THEY COULD BOOST THE ECONOMY. I WAS PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT THE HOUSE PROGRAM "A BETTER WAY." AND I THOUGHT THAT IT'S THE FIRST PROGRAM ACTUALLY THAT I HAD SEEN IN DECADES WHICH WOULD ADDRESS OUR FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM IN THE U.S. Ė WHICH WE OVER-CONSUME AND WE UNDER-INVEST. AND LITERALLY ALL THEY HAD TO DO WAS SIGN IT. BUT SECRETARY MNUCHIN HAD OTHER IDEAS. TO ME IT'S JUST BEEN A HUGE MISSED OPPORTUNITY.

EVANS: DO YOU LIKE-- DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT TAX REFORM PLAN IS SOUND?

DRUCKENMILLER: NO. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT-- THAT ARE HELPFUL AND THAT GO A LITTLE BIT OF THE WAY BETTER WAY WENT. FIRST OF ALL THERE'S EXPENSING, THAT'S OBVIOUSLY PRO-INVESTMENT. LIKE THE BETTER WAY, BUT AGAIN VERY MUTED AND CARVED OUT FOR SOME OF THEIR BUDDIES-- THERE'S INTEREST DEDUCTIBILITY. BECAUSE I THINK WE GOT TOO MUCH DEBT IN THIS COUNTRY AND WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH EQUITY. AND THE FINAL THING IS YOU'VE REALLY, REALLY BROADENED THE TAX BASE. SO A LOT OF INDIVIDUALS ARE GETTING TAX CUTS.

EVANS: DO YOU GET A TAX CUT UNDER THE PLAN?

DRUCKENMILLER: NO, I'LL GET A 600 BASIS POINT INCREASE.

EVANS: DOES THE ESTATE TAX REPEAL HELP YOU? THAT MUST HELP YOU.

DRUCKENMILLER: IS THAT GOING TO BE REPEALED?

EVANS: OR THEY'RE RAISING THE CEILING, I GUESS. MAYBE THAT WON'T DO TOO MUCH.

DRUCKENMILLER: I'M Ė I'M HOPING TO END UP PRETTY NEAR ZERO.

EVANS: WOW. YOUR PERSONAL-- HOLDINGS.

DRUCKENMILLER: SO I DON'T REALLY LOOK AT THE ESTATE TAX. I DON'T LIKE THE REPEAL OF THE ESTATE TAX. I DO Ė I DO LIKE THIS IDEA OF $10 MILLION OR $15 MILLION SO SOMEBODY'S NEST EGG, BUT REPEALING $300 MILLION-- I DON'T GET. THE OTHER THING I SHOULD HAVE MENTIONED IS-- MOVING THE TAX SYSTEM -- A TERRITORIAL BASE. NOT AS GOOD AS THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX. BUTó

EVANS: YOU WANTED THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX?

DRUCKENMILLER: I WAS WILDLY IN FAVOR OF THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX. AND TO ME IT WAS-- AGAIN IT WAS A VERY ELEGANT SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM WE WERE OVER-CONSUMING AND UNDER-INVESTING. UNFORTUNATELY MR. MNUCHIN AND ALL THEIR LOBBYING BUDDIES FROM RETAIL COMPANIES WHICH ARE PROBABLY NOT EVEN GONNA BE IN BUSINESS IN TEN OR 15 YEARS SUCCEEDED IN KILLING THE THING. IT'S PRETTY AMAZING THAT--

EVANS: WOULD IT HAVE HURT AMAZON TOO THOUGH OR NO?

DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T REALLY CARE IF IT WOULD HAVE HURT AMAZON. I DON'T THINK OF THINGS IN THOSE TERMS. NET/NET, YOU KNOW, I DON'T CARE. WEó I THINK WE NEED TO TAX-- THAT WAS SORT OF A VALUE ADDED TAX AND DRAG, WHICH IS WHY IT KIND OF GOT KILLED. BUT I REALLY LIKED IT. AND YOU KNOW, IT OBVIOUSLY GOT NIXED FAIRLY EARLY ON BY A JUST BRUTAL RETAIL LOBBY.

EVANS: SO DO YOU THINK IF THE TAX REFORM PLAN PASSES-- AND-- WE DON'T KNOW THE FINAL-FINAL DETAILS YET, BUT WHAT DIFFERENCE DO YOU THINK IT'LL MAKE TO THE STOCK MARKET AND THE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW?

DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T REALLY THINK IT'S GOING TO MATTER TO THE STOCK MARKET. IT'S ALREADY IN THE STOCK MARKET. AND I THINK THE STOCK MARKET IS BASICALLY A FUNCTION OF CENTRAL BANK POLICY. AND ANY BENEFITS TO EARNING I THINK WILL BE OFFSET BY CENTRAL BANK-- ADJUSTING TO THAT. I WOULD SAY ON THE ECONOMY, IT SHOULD HAVE VERY, VERY STIMULATIVE EFFECT IN '18 AND SOME FOR A FEW YEARS AFTER THAT. AND LONGER TERM, IF ANYTHING, IT'S A PROBLEM. LET ME EXPLAIN.

EVANS: REAL QUICKLY ON '18, YOU THINK IT'LL BE VERY STIMULATIVE, WHICH IS NOT WHAT MOST PEOPLE THINK. IS THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPENSING OR?

DRUCKENMILLER: IT'S NOT ONLY THE EXPENSING. IRONICALLY-- THE EXPENSING IS GOING TO BE MORE POWERFUL EVEN THAN IT APPEARS IF THE TAX CUT CORPORATION IS DELAYED A YEAR BECAUSE THEN IF YOU'RE A CORPORATION--

EVANS: YOU HAVE A HUGE INCENTIVEó

DRUCKENMILLER: -- YOU HAVEó

EVANS: --TO LOWER YOUR RATE?

DRUCKENMILLER: --A BIGGER EXPENSING UNDER THE HIGHER TAX RATE IN '18 THAN YOU WOULD HAVE UNDER '19. SO I THINK IT SUPER CHARGES CAPITAL SPENDING AND INVESTMENT. MY PROBLEM WITH THIS WHOLE THING IS-- AND AGAIN, THE HOUSE PLAN WAS TAX REFORM. IT WAS NOT NET-NET FISCAL STIMULUS. HERE WE ARE, EIGHT OR NINE YEARS INTO AN ECONOMIC EXPANSION. WE'RE GOING TO NEED AMMUNITION DESPERATELY DOWN THE ROAD. AND WE'RE INCREASING THE DEFICIT-- IT DEPENDS ON HOW YOU SCORE, $1 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION, MAYBE MORE SO. WHEN BUSH TOOK OVER, I THINK THAT THE GDP WAS UNDER 50%.

EVANS: WOW.

DRUCKENMILLER: BY THE END OF OBAMA, TWO OF THEM DID THEIR DAMAGE TOGETHER, IT WAS 77%. THIS THING TAKES IT TO 95%. KELLY, IF YOU REMEMBER, I SPENT TWO YEARS OF MY LIFE GOING AROUND TO COLLEGES TALKING ABOUT ENTITLEMENT REFORM ANDó

EVANS: WHICH MAY BE NEXT. I MEAN, THEY SAY THEY MAYBE WANT TO DO WELFARE REFORM NEXT YEAR.

DRUCKENMILLER: I SEE A PICTURE UP THERE. MAYBE I COULD SELL YOU THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE, I SEE IT OVER THERE ON THAT PICTURE. IT WOULD'VE BEEN SO ELEGANT IF THEY HAD USED THE FISCAL STIMULUS IN THIS ON THE CORPORATE SIDE AND ON THE INDIVIDUAL SIDE AND OFFSET THE $1 TRILLION OR $1.5 TRILLION STIMULUS WITH ENTITLEMENT REFORM. WE HAVE 11,000 PEOPLE A DAY TURNING 65 FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS. THIS IS A TICKING TIME BOMB THAT HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. WE'RE STEALING FROM OUR FUTURE. AND WE JUST AGGRAVATED THE PROBLEM. AND TO ME, WE COULD'VE USED THE STIMULUS AND OFFSET IT WITH REFORM TO MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY.

EVANS: LAST TWO QUESTIONS THEN. PUTTING THAT ASIDE, OR MAYBE THAT BEING PART OF IT, DO YOU SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT MORE NOW THAN YOU DID BACK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL OR-- YOU KNOW, IN THE PAST?

DRUCKENMILLER: I NEVER SUPPORTED HIM ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. NO. I THINK THE TAX PLAN, IT IS WHAT IT IS. THERE ARE SOME GOOD THINGS AND THERE ARE SOME BAD THINGS. I DIDN'T GET IN ON THE BAD THING. I AM SO OFFENDED BY THE CARRIED INTEREST PROVISION.

EVANS: THE FACT THAT THEY'RE KEEPING IT IN PLACE, SO PEOPLE CANó

DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, IT'S OUTRAGEOUS. WE HAVE DOCTORS AND LAWYERS IN BLUE STATES, TAX RATES GOING UP DRAMATICALLY, PROFESSIONALS. AND YOU HAVE THESE MULTI, MULTI BILLIONAIRES WITH CARVE OUTS. LET'S BE CLEAR. CARRIED INTERESTS, YOU'RE MAKING MONEY ON SOMEBODY ELSE'S CAPITAL. IT'S NOT ON YOUR OWN. IF THAT'S NOT INCOME, I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS. I WANT TO REPEAT THAT. YOU'RE DOING IT ON OTHER PEOPLE'S CAPITAL. FIRST OF ALL, THE BILLIONAIRES LOBBYING THE CONGRESSMEN FOR THIS OUGHT TO BE ASHAMED OF THEMSELVES, BECAUSE WE'RE ASKING DOCTORS AND LAWYERS AND OTHER AMERICANS IN BLUE STATES TO TAKE TAX INCREASES SO WE CAN FUND THIS KIND OF NONSENSE. AND AS FOR ITS ECONOMIC BENEFITS, HALF THE COMPANIES THESE GUYS BUY, THEY THEN STRIP THEM AND, YOU KNOW, FIRE PEOPLE. SO THE IDEA THAT THEY'RE INCREASING EMPLOYMENT IS ABSURD. AND THE POLITICIANS LISTENING TO THEM, WHO CLAIM HOLIER THAN THOU Ė NOW, WE'RE GOING TO DO ALL THIS REFORM AND GET RID OF THE LOOPHOLES, IT'S AN OUTRAGE.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10088 on: December 14, 2017, 12:02:56 PM »
The 5 key decisions every investor needs to make:

1. The Do-It-Yourself Decision
Do-It-Yourself
Retail Brokers
Independent, Fee-Only Advisors
How to Select an Independent, Fee-Only Advisor
Investment Philosophy
Personal Connection and Trust


2. The Asset Allocation Decision
The Impact of Volatility on Returns
Risk and Return are Related
The Asset Allocation Decision
Cash, Bonds and Stocks
Small vs. Large Companies
Value vs. Growth Companies
Your Emotional Tolerance to Risk
Your Age


3. The Diversification Decision
Positively correlated, uncorrelated or negatively correlated.
Domestic or International Stocks
Domestic or International Bonds
Portfolio Risk and Return


4. The Active versus Passive Decision
Active Investing
Passive Investing
Cash Drag, Consistency, Costs Matter


5. The Rebalancing Decision
Rebalancing = Buy Low and Sell High, minus your emotions
Rebalancing Methods
The Benefits of Rebalancing
Rebalanced Annually
Never Rebalanced


Everyone who takes the time to address these five investment decisions can have a successful investment experience.
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10089 on: December 14, 2017, 01:18:38 PM »
Good topic.

More difficult to make the sell decision than the buy decision.

In the past, I have sold:

Kossan
Topglove
PetDag
HaiO
APM
GCB
Maybulk


Kossan, APM and HaiO were sold and I did not buy them back again.  Today Kossan, APM and HaiO have multiplied their values.  :'(

Topglove and PetDag were sold and I did buy them back later, but at much higher than my selling price.  :'(

GCB and Maybulk were sold and I did not buy them again.  Today, they are at lower prices.  :)

Interestingly, I cannot recall a stock that I sold and then bought back later at lower prices.   :'(

I have many occasions when stocks that already owned went down in prices and I bought more.


Conclusion:

????? :cash:


 :thumbsup: :cash:
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10090 on: January 19, 2018, 04:17:32 PM »
Does Koon Yew Yinís Stock Selection System Work? - Allan Yeoh
Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Publish date: Fri, 4 Dec 2015, 04:48 PM

For the local investment community, Koon needs no introduction. He is an active contributor to various forums and has given talks on his stock selection methodology. His desire to share his formula of success in order that more people can make money from their stock investment activities has garnered both supporters and detractors. In todayís cynical world, people question your motives despite your best intentions.

 

Iím not here to debate on his motives and intentions. What is important is this: Does Koon Yew Yinís system work? Iím writing this to share my personal experience as his remisier with Kenanga Investment Bank. Koon has been a client of mine since 2011.

 

At inception, his approved margin facility was RM 10 million. His initial collateral value was RM 10.5 million. Today, his margin facility is RM 35m, with a further RM 5m pending approval. His collateral value stands at RM 85m. This is in spite of the fact that I have transferred in excess of RM 15m worth of shares to his other accounts in RHB and Hong Leong Investment bank and having withdrawn in excess of RM17 million ringgit in cash. You do the math for the rate of return achieved since inception!

 

While his stock selection criteria forms the core pillar for his portfolioís extraordinary growth, his money management discipline is equally crucial. He harbours no sentimental feelings for his stocks and once they fail to meet his criteria of profit growth, he is decisive in switching to those that do even if it means taking a loss. He does not hope for rebounds to sell. Once his mind is made up, just do it! This ability to exit decisively and to realign his portfolio has proven effective in not allowing his portfolio to stagnate and erode in value. Without this ability to overcome human natureís adversity to loss or to admit to a wrong investment choice, his portfolio would have been decimated.

 

It takes not only stock selection skill and money management acumen but also the courage of your conviction to commit to your decision. To be a contrarian in the face of the recent market sell down due to the volatility in the global equity, currency and commodity markets and the fear of an imminent US interest rate hike takes nerves of steel. When most investors were paring down their positions and running for cover, Koon ran the other way and swept up big positions in Latitude, Lii Hen and VS which have gone up a few hundred per cent in the last 2 years. Recently he has been accumulating  Canone and Focus Lumber which comply with his share selection golden rule.

 

Koonís share selection golden rule: the company must be able to make more profit this year than last year as shown in their recent quarterly result. When the increased profit is announced the share price will surely go up.   

 

Iím not here to blow his trumpet. This article is merely to share what I have witnessed and experienced. Koon has openly shared his stock picks and his golden rule of stock selection. He has also shared the characteristics an investor must possess to be successful. It is up to each individual to take away what he can to improve on areas of weakness and to enhance areas of strength.

 

There are those who have misconstrued his intentions and they have been less than kind in their comments. Nobody held a gun to your head to force you to buy. We should all do our own evaluation and if you feel that the stocks recommended are too high, donít buy! Similarly, if you have bought and if you feel that the price has reached your return objective, sell! Surely you do not expect Koon to advertise when he starts selling!

 

I hope that this article has provided an insight into Koon Yew Yinís approach to stock market investment and I hope all readers will read his many writings on this topic and take away something positive that will enhance their trading skills and philosophy.

 

May 2016 bring much success to you all.

 

Happy Investing.

 

by Allan Yeoh
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Offline sj7953

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10091 on: May 17, 2018, 04:01:00 PM »
3i , how you see the future of MYEG? Habis cerita?
My Portfolio:

 Dlady 35.20, 43.16
 Aeoncr 10.68, 14.88
 Harta 4.61,
 Favco 1.65,

 updated 22 august 2013

Online ahbah

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10092 on: May 17, 2018, 04:37:43 PM »
Myeg ... 3i darling  :heart:

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10093 on: May 18, 2018, 12:26:18 PM »
Myeg ... 3i darling  :heart:

Sold already.   :phew:
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online ahbah

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10094 on: May 18, 2018, 02:48:28 PM »
3i , how you see the future of MYEG? Habis cerita?

Habis cerita n gulong tikar.  :S :S :S

Offline ProfitSonar

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10095 on: July 28, 2018, 01:47:55 PM »
Why Guy Spier Rejected Warren Buffettís Investment Strategy

Here's a question: Give the fact that Warren Buffett is the most successful, respected, and wealthy investor of all time, why would any professional value manager reject Warren Buffett's contemporary investment strategy? It's seems odd, but Guy Spier has his reasons.

Who Is Guy Spier?
If the name Guy Spier seems familiar, it may be because of his growing reputation among the value investing community. Spier is famous for paying $650 000USD, along with Monish Pabrai, to have lunch with Warren Buffett. His 2014 book, "The Education of a Value Investor," has also made the rounds and is becoming a very popular book. It's currently rated a 4.5 star read by 295 people on Amazon.

Spier was born in South Africa and educated at the City of London's Freeman School, later receiving his MBA from Harvard. He started out as a professional money manager in 1997 with $15 Million mostly from family and friends. Since then he's managed to wrack up outstanding returns versus the S&P 500. In 2011, his gains totalled 221.6% versus the S&P 500's 36.7%. That's an impressive record especially when most managers fail to beat the market over even a moderate period of time.

Guy Spier's investment vehicle is his Aquamarine Capital, an investment partnership inspired by Warren Buffett's early partnership. Aquamarine is fairly restrictive with regards to who it manages money for, and fund information is only distributed by request.

Citing Buffett, Munger, and Pabrai as major investment influences, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Guy Spier sticks to Warren Buffett's moat-type businesses. While Spier was once a card-carrying Buffetteer, his true preference is for classic Graham deep value investments.

What's Guy Spier's Problem With Warren Buffett?

In 2011, Jacob Wolinsky of Value Walk fame conducted a masterful interview with the man him self, which was published by The Manual of Ideas. Jacob's conversation with Spier revealed some valuable insights into how a small investor should manage his portfolio.

"Pretty soon after I started I fell in love with this whole GARP idea. I spent a lot of time around Ruane Cunniff by researching their ideas and attending their annual meetings, where I had the chance to listen to and meet some of their brilliant investors and analysts, including Bob Goldfarb, Greg Alexander, Jonathan Brandt, and Girish Bhakoo. I learned about why Warren had moved into the business of buying, and paying up for better businesses."

GARP, or "growth at reasonable prices," is a strategy that boils down to selecting companies that are expected to grow at high rates relative to their industry, or businesses in general, and then to buy those firms when their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations. What counts as reasonable is a matter of perspective, though, and many investors are split between using Discounted Cash Flow or classic Ben Graham measure of value.

Just like many other investors who are just starting out in value investing, Spier only focused on Warren Buffett's modern investment strategy, buying growing companies with strong moats at decent prices. He dug deep into Buffett's strategy, dissecting exactly what he looked for when he hunted large, well run, businesses with durable competitive advantages, and then formed his investment partnership around that.

As Guy Spier explains, this sort of strategy has a few major pitfalls.

"Something I learned during the financial crisis was that when you pay up for a better business, you can suffer greatly when the price people are willing to pay for that business goes down dramatically, as it did in 2008. Many ďbetterĒ businesses fell in price more rapidly than other businesses because, as the crisis came about, many investors were not willing to pay up for growth or quality. ...I lost more money owning those businesses than I would have if I had owned the right cigar *****..."

But large drops in price during bear markets wasn't the only investment trap that Spier spotted. As it turned out, GARP firms also pushed investors into making major behavioural mistakes when investing.

"If you talk about your stocks, it will affect how you think about them as well as the portfolio decisions you make. At the time, I did not believe it would skew my decision making. But if I go back over the life of Aquamarine Fund and examine my letters to investors, I can see clearly how this created a bias for better businesses, simply because it was more fun to talk about them. (Or perhaps a better way to put this is that I developed a bias for businesses that are fun to talk about.)"

If Buffett was right in calling inflation a corporate tapeworm, psychological biases are definitely an investor's tapeworm. They cause us to overestimate the returns we can expect from a particular stock, how fast the company will grow, the profit the company will produce, or even how durable the competitive advantage of the company is itself. This trap is often due to the Halo Effect, the tendency to attribute or overestimate a range of good traits that a company may not actually have based on the existence of a single good trait that actually exists. In dating, for example, a beautiful woman may be seen as more sociable, better adjusted, or more popular, by virtue of her looks when she may not actually possess any of those attributes.

By contrast, Cigar ***** tend to sidestep this issue much of the time. They don't readily lend themselves to producing the halo effect and you're much less likely to talk about them at a party, keeping those psychological and social chains off so you can easily change your opinion when the facts change. They're also known to trigger an investor's gag reflex, so investors systematically underestimate a Cigar ****'s future growth rate and stock return.

Ironically, despite providing investors with better returns, small retail investors prefer great companies to Cigar ***** because they cause less psychological or emotional strain.

"Owning things that Mike Burry says have an ďickĒ factor or cigar **** investment ideas that have a lot of hair on them is not something your investors want to hear about unless you have a very sophisticated group of investors. In my case, many of my investors had never owned stocks before so they were not going to feel too comfortable about me owning companies with a high ďickĒ factor. So I was immediately biased toward buying better businesses at a reasonable price. With most audiences, it is much easier, for example, to talk about Heineken and their phenomenal sales growth in Russia and other BRIC countries, or about Nestle and their Nespresso brand, than to talk about businesses that are either ďhated, or unloved,Ē as Whitney Tilson would put it."

Part of the reason why these "dirty" stocks work out so well is due to a phenomenon called "reversion to the mean." Reversion to the mean is a basic law in both life and investing. The principle is that abnormal results, either positive or negative, tend to not last.

Take height for example. A freakishly tall father and mother will have tall children, but those children will usually be shorter than their parents. The height of future offspring reverts to the average hight of people in general.

The same principle is at work in investing. It's why Cigar ***** tend to work out well in the end. Inevitably, the company's business improves or some piece of good news comes out to send significantly undervalued shares skywards. Conversely, great returns don't last and firms with higher levels of profitability tend to get beaten back to more average levels of profitability. This is why Buffett loves moats, but even moats can't fend off natural forces indefinitely.

"When I started investing I used screening software to find companies with the metrics you mention ó high ROE, low price to book, and high return on invested capital. I was looking for all of those types of things.

I think all of those metrics have a potential downfall, and I will give you an example: In general, you want to invest in high ROE businesses, and you can run various types of a screen to find high ROE businesses, but to the extent that in the vast majority of businesses, ROE is going to revert to the mean, you may have paid up for something that might not be there in five years. The ROE five years forward might be a lot lower than the ROE you are paying up for today."

As Guy Spier explains, you end up paying a large price up front for a business that is facing an immutable law of nature. Eventually, that return on equity will shrink and the business will be far less profitable than when you spotted it. While the risk-reward relationship may still be in an investor's favour, the company's margins face a tremendous amount of pressure.
".........you want to own something that makes the situation unusual and gives you an unusual risk/reward. That is not necessarily a cigar ****, but you have to identify what it is that will result in a return of 3x in two years. I am trying very hard to own things that will give me a return of 3x in two years rather than settle for something that will appreciate at a few percentage points better than the market."

One of the huge advantages of net net stocks, the classic Cigar ****, is that the risk-reward profile is heavily skewed in the investor's favour. Roughly 75% of net nets produce large positive return over a two year period, and the average results of a net net stock portfolio over time is 15% over and above the market. That makes for a 25%+ annual average return.

Often investors new to net nets make the mistake of only buying a few stocks and assuming that they'll all see massive advances in price. This is just not the case. While net nets work out well, some stocks are bound to disappoint which means that a proper net net strategy requires a decent amount of diversification. Still, net nets are probably safer than you assume. James Montier found that these stocks only see major (90%+) losses in 5% of cases. That compares to 2% for stocks in general, showing just how safe a well diversified net net stock portfolio is versus the market.

Keeping in mind basic requirements of good net net stock picking (no Chinese firms, resource explorations firms, etc) the highest returning net nets are often the stocks that are selling for the cheapest prices relative to net current asset value (NCAV). Buy cheap enough and you can bag the 3x advance in 2 years that Guy Spier favours.

But, as he explains, price to value often isn't enough.

"Tom Russo has said, ďflying an airplane requires you to focus on five or more instruments,Ē and you canít favor the altimeter over the speed indicator, or the vertical speed indicator over the pitch indicator, for example. You have to look at all the instruments together and fly the plane integrated. Tom has used this plane analogy to discuss investments. There is no single metric you should look at but rather keep an eye on all of them."

This is why investors should be using a high quality scorecard when assessing their stocks. For my own investing, I use our Core7 Scorecard to help dissect the net net stocks that I buy to see if they're the sort of stocks that are bound to avoid losses and produce meaningful returns. I've compiled most of the thinking that's gone into this checklist into my net net stock guide, Retire Young & Rich. Ultimately, it takes more than blindly following Buffett's current strategy to produce the best possible investment results. As Guy Spier said,

"Thus, you could say that my approach to investing, in contrast to Buffett, has gone in the reverse direction. My approach today has become more similar to the way Warren Buffett invested when he got started. The important thing to realize is that if Buffett today was running a fund the size of Aquamarine, he would be investing differently than the way he does today."

Start putting together your high quality, high potential, net net stock strategy.

http://www.netnethunter.com/why-guy-spier-rejected-buffetts-contemporary-investment-strategy/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=value-investing&utm_campaign=cp1

What are your opinion on this? Do you agree with Guy Spier that net net strategy is better or buffett's strategy is still better despite the argument made by Guy Spier?
I am climbing my rank untill someone notice me.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10096 on: September 28, 2018, 11:36:42 AM »
Based on QMV - Hong Leong Bank of course  :D :thumbsup: :handshake: :cash: :cash:


Dorky and Raider ...

Whenever you discuss shares with 3i, you will realise that I have a long term investing time horizon.

Both of you are so short term in your outlook, thus what you post is quite understandable.

For those who have invested long term since 2005:
(Calculations are based on per share basis.)

PBB in 2005 was at RM 5.75 low and RM 7.24 high.
Earnings from 2006 to today (10 years) totalled RM 8.81
Dividends received from 2006 to today (10 years) totalled RM 4.61 (DPO 48%)
It retained earnings over 10 years totalled RM 4.21(52%).
In 2005, its earning was 39.4 sen and today 2015 its earning is 122 sen.
Thus, it has increased its earnings by 82.6 sen; giving it a return on total retained earnings of 82.6 / 421 = 19.6% over that period.
The price today is RM 18.80



HLB in 2005 was at RM 4.75 low and RM 5.60 high.
Earnings from 2006 to today (10 years) totalled RM 6.47
Dividends received from 2006 to today (10 years) totalled RM 2.07 (DPO 32%)
It retained earnings over 10 years totalled RM 4.40 (68%).
In 2005, its earning was 31.7 sen and today 2015 its earning is 115 sen.
Thus, it has increased its earnings by 83.3 sen; giving it a return on total retained earnings of 83.3 / 440 = 18.9% over that period.
The price today is RM 13.50.


HLBank at price of RM 13.3 per share
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:         
Current price is at        Middle 1/3      of valuation zone.           
RISK:   Upside   66%   Downside   34%

One Year Appreciation Potential         13%   
Avg. yield   4%   
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years)               17%




PBB at price of RM 18.9 per share
Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:   
         
Current price is at        Middle 1/3      of valuation zone.           
RISK:   Upside   57%   Downside   43%

One Year Appreciation Potential         10%   
Avg. yield   4%   Avg.
Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years)               14%



KLSE Huat

Which of these 2 stocks will you prefer?
Which stock has lower risk with reasonable promise of higher return?


It is very interesting to note that after going through all  the individual stocks in detail analysis and studies, one is then left with a few very good stocks you like.  The final decisions to buy or not and which stock to buy are based on .......   a hunch.   :) :cash:







Reviewing some old posts.

28.9.2018

Price PBB   RM 25.00

Price HLB   RM 20.68
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10097 on: September 28, 2018, 11:56:17 AM »
All values updated annually at fiscal year end

Ratios & Margins Public Bank Bhd

Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 16.96
P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 16.97
Price to Book Ratio 2.15

EPS (recurring) 1.42
EPS (basic) 1.42
EPS (diluted) 1.42



Ratios & Margins Hong Leong Bank Bhd

Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 16.06
P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 15.99
Price to Book Ratio 1.56

EPS (recurring) 1.28
EPS (basic) 1.29
EPS (diluted) 1.29






====

Ratios & Margins Public Bank Bhd

Efficiency
Operating Margin +36.62
Pretax Margin +36.66
Net Margin +28.16

Return on Assets 1.41
Return on Equity 15.28
Return on Total Capital 10.73
Return on Invested Capital 11.35



Ratios & Margins Hong Leong Bank Bhd

Efficiency
Operating Margin +32.92
Pretax Margin +33.04
Net Margin +32.17

Return on Assets 1.32
Return on Equity 11.33
Return on Total Capital 7.39
Return on Invested Capital 9.83


Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10098 on: September 28, 2018, 12:07:04 PM »
All values updated annually at fiscal year end

Ratios & Margins Public Bank Bhd

Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 16.96
P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 16.97
Price to Book Ratio 2.15

EPS (recurring) 1.42
EPS (basic) 1.42
EPS (diluted) 1.42



Ratios & Margins Hong Leong Bank Bhd

Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 16.06
P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 15.99
Price to Book Ratio 1.56

EPS (recurring) 1.28
EPS (basic) 1.29
EPS (diluted) 1.29






====

Ratios & Margins Public Bank Bhd

Efficiency
Operating Margin +36.62
Pretax Margin +36.66
Net Margin +28.16

Return on Assets 1.41
Return on Equity 15.28
Return on Total Capital 10.73
Return on Invested Capital 11.35



Ratios & Margins Hong Leong Bank Bhd

Efficiency
Operating Margin +32.92
Pretax Margin +33.04
Net Margin +32.17

Return on Assets 1.32
Return on Equity 11.33
Return on Total Capital 7.39
Return on Invested Capital 9.83






Ratios & Margins Malayan Banking Bhd
All values updated annually at fiscal year end

Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 13.02
P/E Ratio (including extraordinary items) 13.37
Price to Book Ratio 1.44

EPS (recurring) 0.73
EPS (basic) 0.72
EPS (diluted) 0.72


Efficiency
Operating Margin +25.13
Pretax Margin +25.78
Net Margin +19.20

Return on Assets 1.00
Return on Equity 10.63
Return on Total Capital 4.90
Return on Invested Capital 5.96
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.

Online iiinvestsmart

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Re: 3i Investing Whispers
« Reply #10099 on: September 28, 2018, 12:24:36 PM »


PBB
KEY STOCK DATA
P/E Ratio (TTM)
16.96 (09/28/18)
EPS (TTM) RM1.47
Market Cap RM97.05 B
Shares Outstanding 3.88 B
Public Float 2.46 B
Yield 2.56% (09/28/18)
Latest Dividend RM0.32 (09/19/18)
Ex-Dividend Date 09/05/18



HLBank
KEY STOCK DATA
P/E Ratio (TTM) 15.99 (09/28/18)
EPS (TTM) RM1.29
Market Cap RM44.61 B
Shares Outstanding 2.17 B
Public Float 414.18 M
Yield 1.55% (09/28/18)
Latest Dividend RM0.16 (03/28/18)
Ex-Dividend Date 03/12/18






MBB
KEY STOCK DATA
P/E Ratio (TTM) 13.06 (09/28/18)
EPS (TTM) RM0.75
Market Cap RM107.04 B
Shares Outstanding 10.95 B
Public Float 8.55 B
Yield 2.04% (09/28/18)
Latest Dividend RM0.10 (10/30/18)
Ex-Dividend Date 09/28/18
Itís better to buy a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price.

1.  Understand the business
2.  Business must have DCA
3.  Management with integrity
4.  Buy at a sensible price

Big Fat Pitch.  Focus Investing.  Long term portfolio for capital appreciation and income.