大選或提前‧經濟欠明朗‧野村：馬股風險溢價恐升高

[早起的虫儿被鸟吃 (Early Worms Eaten by Birds)]

（吉隆坡27日訊）隨近期政治人物放話，大選或年杪舉行，但股市政治風險雖低，卻有升溫現象，更對早已面臨經濟放緩的市場雪上加霜，目前在5年平均點下盤旋的市場風險溢價料隨可能在11月落實的大選進一步走高，令下半年馬股面對顯著下壓。
根據野村股市研究，大馬市場風險溢價（Market risk premium）早在2008年3月大選前走高，308市場風險溢價估計自2007年12月上揚303點，導致馬股當時重挫29%，今年或在11月舉行的大選，市場風險溢價恐與308一樣節節上升，惟市場如何詮釋大選結果將是關鍵。

選民增加
大選結果難測
此外，野村預計，2013年首季的額外合格選民達320萬人，促使總合格選民自2008年提高22%到1千760萬人，若包括258萬註冊卻未在2008年投票的選民，增加人數或達943萬人，該龐大數據難免加劇政府競爭挑戰，同時干擾轉型計劃，主要是執政黨在2008年僅以38萬4千688票取勝。
“選民增加導致大選結果更難以預測，也讓大馬前景更不明確。”野村認為，選民大幅增加下，下個大選料提前進行，為降低風險，首相拿督斯里納吉或在10月7日公佈預算案後數天內宣佈解散國會。

外資悄悄撤離
志必得證券研究主管馮廷秀表示，709後，大馬政治風險確實節節攀漲，外資悄悄撤離與馬股裹足不前已反映該風險。
他以泰國之前大選為例，當泰國宣佈選舉時，外資因潛在暴力風險驚恐撤退，直到大選結果出爐才逐步回巢，同樣的，709突顯大馬雖不至於出現泰國般的血腥事件，卻已流露動盪。
對外資而言，現難以預測政治對馬股的衝擊力，即使經濟成長可期，若資金因政治紛亂大幅撤離股市，勢必拖累馬股下半年走勢。
此外，政治往往左右經濟，大馬經歷前首相敦阿都拉與納吉的“改朝換代”後，政策不明朗也是一大挑戰；值得一提的是，大馬與其他國家一樣，已面臨經濟前景的不明朗，所以，政治風險無疑對大馬經濟雪上加霜。
上探潛力受限下，他對未來12個月的綜指目標為1700點，2011年杪為1650點。

下挫風險有限
馮廷秀相信，馬股下挫風險有限，主要是大馬市場結構不同，大型本地基金，如雇員公積金局的支持，仍有望抵銷外資與散戶卻步的問題。
他直言，牛市已過，領域輪流抬頭風潮也已結束，建議投資者按個股前景投資，並放眼具抗跌性股項，如消費相關股。
野村建議投資者採用保守的抗跌策略，兩大加碼領域為電訊與種植，投資者應避免高貝他與週期性領域。

野村：下半年存下壓隱憂
野村預見，馬股第三與第四季潛存顯著下挫風險，主要是政治風險加劇下的市場風險溢價提高，加上市場或開始反映，2012年國內生產總值動力走疲下盈利潛在放緩跡象。
另外，市場盈利下調與富時綜指表現的“分歧”已持續很長時間，目前漲潮，若自2009年全球金融危機低谷算起，已持續長達122週，創下史上最長的危機後漲潮，漲勢部份歸功於過去一到半年的經濟復甦，並推動市場至歷史新高。
盈利成長放慢

魅力大減
野村提到，過去122週的持續漲勢已推高市場估值，按未來12個月計，馬股以市場盈利14.7倍交易，相對歷史平均13.9倍，馬股顯然較其他區域同儕欠缺吸引力。
“盈利成長放慢與政治風險提高下，目前溢價估值更令馬股魅力大減。”
野村相信第三季下探風險顯著，事實上，次季預測下修風險已大幅提高，歸咎於4至5月的工業生產成長走疲3.4%，相對首季為增長3%。
針對銀行，野村相信，2012年領域貸款成長將自今年13%開始放緩至9%，主要是原產品價上升後回穩，明年淨利息賺幅也將面臨壓力，並挫額外10基點，歸咎於新房貸的較低回酬。

建築領域最受衝擊
最大失望恐怕來自建築領域，儘管市場預見盈利與建築訂單流持續看漲，但野村認為，即使訂單補充短期內改善，未來5年每年活動，相對2007至2010年，可能平均走低8%。
更重要的是，該領域對政治不明朗敏感度更高，2008年3月大選前3個月，金務大（GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組）、怡保工程（IJM, 3336, 主板建筑組）與WCT公司（WCT, 9679, 主板建筑組）落後富時綜指4至7%，選舉結果後3個月，落後高達7至20%。

料陷“中收入陷阱”
次季成長或失動力
另一方面，首季經濟穩健擴張後，次季經濟成長可能逐步喪失動力，部份歸咎於日本地震打擊，除非6月經濟成長顯著反彈，否則次季成長或落後野村按年成長4.7%預期。
轉型動力疲弱
此外，大馬中期上探風險是經濟轉型迅速展開引發的投資漲潮，而轉型動力疲弱或意味大馬無法逃離“中收入陷阱”。
儘管如此，野村相信，原產品價的正面貿易條件效應有望持續帶動收入，並支撐下半年經濟反彈，原產品出口或隨日本重建提高。投資開銷料也隨政府經濟轉型計劃公佈的更多計劃提高。
野村持續預見全年經濟成長5.2%，並在2012年放慢步伐至5.3%，惟基於大馬轉型以突破中收入瓶頸仍是艱鉅挑戰，加上政治展望或再添壓，野村預見2013年經濟成長進一步放緩至5%。
“隨大馬人均國內生產總值仍較大部份東南亞國家高，大馬邁向附加價值‘階梯’更為迫切，但自亞洲金融危機，首季投資佔國內生產總值比重只有20%。”
另外，國家銀行保持隔夜政策利率3%，令市場與野村驚訝，野村相信，全球經濟展望脆弱是國行隱憂，但持續預見國行今年內提高額外25基點，或在9月議息會議中落實。
由於儲備替換比率（RRR）已重返危機前水平4%，野村認為，其上調潛力已受限，相信政策利率是處理通膨壓力的主要工具。
通膨料進一步走高
另外，電費6月上升，加上下半年國內需求重新凝聚動力，野村認為，通膨可能進一步走高。生產者物價也對全球原產品價走勢具敏感度，目前仍面臨價格壓力。
由於大馬是淨石油出口國，油價隨下半年全球成長走高的反彈是上探風險，但全球成長未復甦卻是下探風險。
“大選或帶來進一步的財政成長支撐，但任何執政黨失權的風險將對長期整型帶來負面影響。”（星洲日報／財經）

[sahamcabok]

Election or the uncertain economy ahead ‧ ‧ Nomura: fear of horse shares increased risk premium

(KUALA LUMPUR) With the recent release of political figures, then the general election or at year-end, but the stock market and political risk was low, there is warming, but which are already facing an economic slowdown in the market even worse, the current point in the next five years, the average hovering material with the market risk premium may be implemented in November's election even higher, so that the face of a significant share in the second half horse under pressure.
According to Nomura's stock market research, the Malaysian market risk premium (Market risk premium) as early as March 2008, before the election to rise, the market risk premium is estimated from 308 in December 2007 rose 303 points, leading horse shares fell 29 percent at that time, this year or In the general election held in November, the market risk premium, as rising fear and 308, but how the market will interpret the election results is the key.

Voters increase
Difficult to predict election results
In addition, Nomura expects the first quarter of 2013, an additional 320 million eligible voters, prompting the total eligible voters from 22 percent in 2008 to 1,000 760 people, including 2.58 million if it has not registered voters in 2008, an increase number or up to 943 million people, will inevitably exacerbate the huge data challenge of the competition, and interference restructuring plan, mainly the ruling party in 2008, only 44,000 of 38 688 votes to win.
"Voters that election results led to more Nanyiyuce, but also more uncertain outlook for Malaysia." Nomura believes that a substantial increase in voters, the next general election expected in advance, in order to reduce risk, or in October, the Prime Minister 拿督斯里纳吉7, the Budget announced a few days after the dissolution of parliament.

Withdrawal of foreign quietly
Chi Ping Tingxiu must Securities research director, said 709, the Malaysian political risk is indeed climbed steadily, quietly withdraw and horses share of foreign capital has been reluctant to reflect the risk.
Before his election, for example in Thailand, when Thailand announced the election, foreign investors retreat because of the potential risk of violence, fear, until the election results were out only gradually back to the nest, the same, although not 709 appeared to highlight Malaysia as the bloody events in Thailand, already revealed turbulence.
To foreign investors, the shares are Nanyiyuce political impact of the horse, even if economic growth can be expected, because of political chaos if a substantial withdrawal of capital stock, the trend is bound to drag on horse stock in the second half.
In addition, often about political economy, Malaysia dragged through the former prime minister and Najib's Dune "regime change", the policy uncertainty is a challenge; worth mentioning is that Malaysia and other countries, already facing economic outlook uncertainty, so the political risk is undoubtedly worse for the Malaysian economy.
On the exploration potential is limited, he the next 12 months KLCI target of 1,700 points, 2011 points by year-end 1650.

Decline in risk is limited
Ping Tingxiu believe that the risk of horses falling stocks are limited, mainly Malaysian market structure, a large local funds, such as the Employees Provident Fund Board for its support, is expected to offset foreign and retail investors are still put off the problem.
He admits, the bull market is over, the rise of the wave field in turn has ended, according to investors to stocks investment prospects, and look at items with defensive stocks such as consumer-related stocks.
Nomura recommended investors adopt a conservative defensive strategy, the two coded fields of telecommunications and planting, investors should avoid areas of high beta and cyclical.

Nomura: able to save the second half pressure worries
Nomura expected, the third and fourth quarter horse shares fell significantly latent risk, political risk is increased primarily under the market risk premium increase, coupled with the market or begin to reflect, gross domestic product in 2012 under a weaker power potential signs of slowing profit .
In addition, market profitability and the FTSE down KLCI performance "differences" has been going on for a long time, the current high tide, if the global financial crisis since the 2009 trough date, have lasted for 122 weeks, the longest record in the history of post-crisis high tide, some gains over the past one to six months due to economic recovery, and promote the market to record highs.
Profit growth slow

Charm greatly reduced
Nomura said in the past 122 weeks of continuous gains have pushed the market valuation, according to the next 12-month basis, Malaysia stock market trading 14.7 times earnings, relative to historical average of 13.9 times, compared with other regions of Malaysia stock is clearly less attractive peers .
"Profit growth slowed and the political risks increase, the current premium valuation of shares even more attractive horse greatly reduced."
Nomura believes a significant risk of dropping the third quarter, in fact, second quarter, revised down forecast a substantial increase in risk has been attributed the April-May's industrial production grew 3.4% weaker relative to the first quarter increased 3%.
For banks, Nomura believes that the growth of loans in 2012 to 13 percent since the beginning of this year slowed to 9 percent of the original product prices stabilized after rising for next year, earning net interest rate will also be under pressure, and fell an additional 10 basis points to blame the new lower mortgage returns.

The most impact on the construction sector
Probably the biggest disappointment comes from the construction sector, despite the expected profitability of the market order flow and construction continued to rise, but Nomura believes that even if the order added to improve the short term, annual event next five years, between 2007 and 2010 relative to, may average 8 percent lower.
More importantly, the area more sensitive to political uncertainties, March 2008, three months before the general election, Gamuda (GAMUDA, 5398, board construction group), IJM (IJM, 3336, board construction group ) and the WCT's (WCT, 9679, board construction group) behind the FTSE KLCI 4-7%, the election results after 3 months behind as much as 7 to 20%.

Material trapped "in the income trap."
Second quarter growth or loss of power
On the other hand, solid economic expansion after the first quarter, second quarter economic growth may gradually lose power, some blame the Japanese earthquake hit, unless a significant rebound in economic growth in June, second quarter growth or otherwise Nomura behind the expected annual growth of 4.7%.
The weak force transformation
In addition, Malaysia is a medium-term risks of economic restructuring on the probe caused by rapidly rising tide of investment, while the transformation of power in Malaysia can not escape the weak or the means "middle income trap."
However, Nomura believes that the original product price effects of the positive terms of trade is expected to continue to drive revenue and support the economic rebound in the second half of the original export or re-raise with the Japanese. Investment spending is also expected with the government's economic restructuring plan announced more plans to improve.
Nomura sustained annual economic growth of 5.2% predicted, and the pace slowed in 2012 to 5.3%, but the Malaysian-based transformation to break the bottleneck is still the daunting challenge of income, coupled with the political outlook, or add another pressure, Nomura predicted 2013 economic further growth slowed to 5%.
"With Malaysia's per capita GDP is still a large part of the Southeast Asian countries is high, large Mamai to value-added 'ladder' is more urgent, but since the Asian financial crisis, investment in the first quarter of the proportion of GDP is only 20%. "
In addition, the policy of the National Bank to keep the overnight interest rate of 3%, surprised the market with Nomura, Nomura believes that the global economic outlook is fragile state line worries, but continued to increase this year, Bank Negara foresee additional 25 basis points, or interest-rate meeting in September in the implementation of the .
As the reserves replacement ratio (RRR) have returned to pre-crisis level of 4%, Nomura believes that its potential has been limited up, I believe the policy rate is the main tool for dealing with inflationary pressures.
Inflation expected to rise further
In addition, the tariff increase in June, with the second half of the domestic power needs to re-unite, Nomura believes that inflation may rise further. Producer prices are also on the global trend with the original product price sensitivity, is still facing price pressure.
Since Malaysia is a net oil exporter, with oil prices higher in the second half of global growth rebound is on the exploration risk, but recovery in global growth is not dropping the risk.
"Election or lead to further growth of financial support, but the risk of loss of the right of any party will have a negative impact on long integer." (Sin Chew Daily / Finance)

[king]

WATCH OUT FOR UMNO COUNTERS!