Author Topic: One shoe size fits all  (Read 2103 times)

Offline Maxforce

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One shoe size fits all
« on: March 21, 2007, 08:13:43 PM »
Previously I created a topic called Technical Analysis Made Easy.
In the end, the readers were right. The presentation was horrid.
Hopefully this round, I have done a better job.

http://fusiontrader.~.com/2007/03/one-shoe-size-fits-all.html

It focuses on how the indicators a basically used.
Hope you enjoy reading and benefited from it.
Thank you.
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline booffett

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2007, 09:29:19 PM »

The market has been very uncertain nowadays, and that happen for some reasons...

Buy, or sell? Hold? Nobody know...

The US has enter into the era of stagnation, stuck in the middle... To increase interest rates? No way, the housing industry is already in quite a big trouble... Oh, so to reduce interest rates? Oh, No, No... The CPI is quite high and in fact, and worst, the act to decrease interest rates (particularly for a few times in this year) could sent a signal to investors that the economy is really in trouble. Both way, which i think, will cause the market to drop. The best method? Nobody knows... Only God know the future. Most likely, the FED is going to keep the rate unchanged. Until the damage is done, i.e., inflation starts to slow down and it is obviously that the trouble in the home loans stuff has spread around, then only the FED is going to reduce the interest rates. Anyway, i still maintain a short term "bye bye" in the Dow and S&P500 index.

How about Japan carry trade? It is over yet? How much damage could it done to KLSE? Again, nobody knows...

How about election? Is the election coming soon so that politics party will push up the price? Again, no body knows... Will PM push the market to 1350 as promised (even despite the global downturn in the stock market)? Again, nobody knows...

Signals are mixed, confusing and complicated. Somehow, ask yourself these questions... Is the Malaysia economy really good? Can the Iskandar project work (or become just another Cyberjaya or Putrajaya)? Why the stock market never move up despite good news on internet, newspapers and etc?

Trading is always like that... Signals are mixed and opposite opinions could even occur in a trader mind. The market has become so hard to anticipate and analyzed. Every people has their own opinion... Newspapers and spreading both good and bad news... Even the world reputable investment companies are telling different stories...

For now, the best is to sit back and hold your cash near to your ball. Some of the money are not meant for you to take (Do you see anyone keeping the "heaven money" that are intended to be burn for the dead people in their pocket?). Disregard all kind of opinions, any kind of advices, or any research reports by anyone. Focus on the fact... the fact that the market hasn't goes back to its previous high. It is only the fact, the price increase or decrease as well as the volume action, that are going to tell you what to do next...

Ultimately, only facts are real, opinions are just... opinions.

http://booffett.~.com/
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline DenLee

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2007, 09:38:19 PM »
Good highlight of stock markets.  Every forummer should read this.  :)
Regards,
Denlee

Offline earwax

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2007, 10:15:59 PM »
Wah lau... what is this... everyone trying to advertise their blog  :P

Maybe we can have a best blogger competition  ;D
Right beside every great brain there is... Earwax! :)

Offline kardel

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2007, 11:02:45 PM »
 
"Most likely, the FED is going to keep the rate unchanged. "

Well guys, we'll probably know whether they will change the rates or not at 2:15am(local time) 22nd March. Keep your eyes on those USD related charts. USD Interest Rate Statement    Forecast: 5.25%  Previous: 5.25%
If it changes by 0.25%, the GBP/USD will move 100 pips or more either way depending on whether it increases or decreases the rate.

" How about Japan carry trade? It is over yet? How much damage could it done to KLSE? "

  The answer is NO. Traditionally, the closing (time to cook the books  ;)) is in March every year. The EUR/JPY (euro-yen) has been acting funny for the past wk due to carry-trades unwinding. The USD/JPY & GBP/JPY weren't affected as much though. Things will be back to normal in April.

"How about election? Is the election coming soon so that politics party will push up the price? Again, no body knows... Will PM push the market to 1350 as promised (even despite the global downturn in the stock market)? Again, nobody knows..."

Muahahah! This one is fun! Even Bush himself dare not predict where the mkts will go. PM even gave us the figure of 1350! Wonder wat indicators he's using  ;D. Anyway, our fren Anwar Ibrahim will be able to stand for election earliest April 2008.....so to prevent that from happening, 3 dates for the election have been set. GE will either be held in May 2007 or  Nov 2007 or Dec 2007. Pls register as a voter as the deadline is 31st March !!! Not many ppl know about this.....pls alert you colleagues & frens to register at the nearest post office.

"The market has become so hard to anticipate and analyzed"

I nvr trade mkts that are too fundamentally driven. I trade the forex & i only keep away from the mkt 1 - 2 hours prior to an announcement coming out. At all times the price action is already factored into the mkt. TA will do. The forex mkt is too big to be manipulated.




 


 

Offline booffett

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2007, 01:25:05 AM »

"Most likely, the FED is going to keep the rate unchanged. "

Well guys, we'll probably know whether they will change the rates or not at 2:15am(local time) 22nd March. Keep your eyes on those USD related charts. USD Interest Rate Statement    Forecast: 5.25%  Previous: 5.25%
If it changes by 0.25%, the GBP/USD will move 100 pips or more either way depending on whether it increases or decreases the rate.

" How about Japan carry trade? It is over yet? How much damage could it done to KLSE? "

  The answer is NO. Traditionally, the closing (time to cook the books  ;)) is in March every year. The EUR/JPY (euro-yen) has been acting funny for the past wk due to carry-trades unwinding. The USD/JPY & GBP/JPY weren't affected as much though. Things will be back to normal in April.

"How about election? Is the election coming soon so that politics party will push up the price? Again, no body knows... Will PM push the market to 1350 as promised (even despite the global downturn in the stock market)? Again, nobody knows..."

Muahahah! This one is fun! Even Bush himself dare not predict where the mkts will go. PM even gave us the figure of 1350! Wonder wat indicators he's using  ;D. Anyway, our fren Anwar Ibrahim will be able to stand for election earliest April 2008.....so to prevent that from happening, 3 dates for the election have been set. GE will either be held in May 2007 or  Nov 2007 or Dec 2007. Pls register as a voter as the deadline is 31st March !!! Not many ppl know about this.....pls alert you colleagues & frens to register at the nearest post office.

"The market has become so hard to anticipate and analyzed"

I nvr trade mkts that are too fundamentally driven. I trade the forex & i only keep away from the mkt 1 - 2 hours prior to an announcement coming out. At all times the price action is already factored into the mkt. TA will do. The forex mkt is too big to be manipulated.
 

thanks for replying...

in predicting the GBP/USD, which indicators do u use? TA(E.W.)? Heuristic? Feeling? Relative Purchasing Power Parity? wish u can share more... particularly if u are using PPP as a way to predict the target exchange rates...

For the PM promise 1350, it is not without basis... internal issue report by big investment firm are targeting that as well... for example, tenaga, got a target price range from 13.50 to 16.0. Judging from the price target for the big guys... i think it is reasonable for PM to say that... (somehow, half way come the carry trade stuff, else, we are now partying at 1300 already...)

and any other comment on the current market forecast... i hope to see from other perspective as well...
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Maxforce

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2007, 07:44:38 AM »
This booffett... beh tahan wor...
each time i advertise, he advertise also - summore in same thread. ISK.
Rotan X2 :P
Five points a day, keeps you out of harm's way.

Offline pikafooty

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Re: One shoe size fits all
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2007, 02:15:16 PM »
haha

boofett and maxforce is like digi and maxis

but competition is healthy and maximizes efficiency

we all look forward to better blogs from u guys