Author Topic: Booffett's blog  (Read 1915 times)

Offline booffett

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Booffett's blog
« on: March 22, 2007, 11:29:46 PM »
The bull is not dead yet, neither the bear...

Nowadays, many people asked me impatiently... Can go in? The bull is back? The correction over? Is it now the time? Can buy more? Should i take profit? So many types of questions...

Obviously, people are uncertain... So is the market...

The best answer i can give, probably is - the bull is not dead yet... but, neither the bear too. It is now not the time to show hand in the stock market. The reason is not because the market is sideways, or the market is bullish or bearish... It is because the cards of the opponents are not being revealed yet...

The are reasons for the bear to come, as there are also reasons for the bull to continue charging. Short term wise, i am waiting for the up trend to pull back and contract, a gentle contraction, as well as the contraction of volume in tandem with the stock prices. This is a highly speculative play, a gamble in fact. The KLCI, which in my opinion, should form a solid base before continuing the uptrend, but up to my surprise, the reverse is so rush and fast. I started to understand that probably the market need to be fast to continue the uptrend as to hit the 1350 as promised. The election could be just around the corner.

To issue a buy recommendations, still need some time... At least, when we are gambling in the market, we need to see a strong support line forming somewhere before we jump in. Without any strong support line, KLCI next bear strike will be very fierce and damaging. It will be no surprise to see it at 800 without a firm support and healthy base. Reducing the interest rates as well as promoting all kinds of incentives, promoting the markets will definitely exerting impact to the market... In the short run, i could see that these works. While the short run could be manipulated to death, the long run, the ultimate recession, will come in the end. Recession can never be avoided, it can only be delayed...

Anyway, if there ever a train come by this round to bring you to heaven, this will be the last train. The destination, for the next train... sadly to say, is to hell. ;D
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Calvin Wong

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2007, 08:23:01 AM »
Are you saying there will be a recession coming soon? I thought the correction was already over and it's just a matter of time before the market picks up again.

With the relaxation of forex laws and real estate taxes, and with regional stock markets picking up, and with the elections coming, I think the KLCI will pick up from here.

Offline booffett

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2007, 10:30:00 PM »
From purely technical analysis, the bull has return and gaining strength against the bear. Technically, speaking, the bull is testing the next strong resistance at 1280, and has quite a high chance to make a new high in the near term. Probably, targeting 1350 before election (assuming election comes around June). The concern for traders is the diminishing volume, which could suggest a contraction before continuing the uptrend.

As how technical analysis, no matter how technical and advance it is, is subject to failure when other factors unpredictable by chart exert impact on the prices and volume. In today context, it will be the possible war of Iran (while i am thinking unlikely), the government intention to pull out capital after good news to fund election, or even foreign capital to pull out their capital to profit take for any kind of reasons. Taking these into considerations, it is reasonable to expect the technical analysis to "koyak" big time in the next few weeks. Shall these unpredictable factors never happen, we should see each other around 1350 very soon.

So what is your advice? I am still 100% cash, and if ever i will return speculating in the market, i will only speculate with partial of the portfolio capital unless the trend has become clear. Pyramiding could be needed should the weather turn clear and bright once again.

However, i am pretty sure that, it is probable not to chase new high (unless you wish to sponsor money for the election). Malaysian economy, if we were to consider it from a global stand point; will be exactly a MESDAQ play. I am still holding that, we should wait for a strong support line to happen before jumping it. For those who already cannot "tahan" the uptrend and wish to ride with the trend, it is also advised that you, please jump in. It is probably a good lesson for you in the future, as to improve your emotional and psychological aspect of trading. Just do it... and learn from it. Your experience gained, will be directly proportional to the cash you bet on the market.
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline Salahdin

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2007, 11:56:34 PM »
Sounds like it's time to go in right?  :)
The worst way of learning is to keep all the knowledge to yourself.  So, share it to others as they would to you.

Regards;
Salahdin (The Great Caliph of Baghdad)

Offline booffett

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2007, 09:08:12 AM »
hope u got read carefully between the line... ;D
if u want to learn some lesson, yes, please go in...  :-*

else, if u dun want to learn a lesson, keep 100% cash is my suggestion  ;)
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline booffett

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2007, 09:08:24 PM »
testing testing...

 :police:

 >:D

 :angel:
The problem with cut loss is, easy to say hard to do; the problem with let the profit run is, most often, the profit only run 100m, not the 400m as you expected.

http://www.booffett.~.com/

Offline KatFish

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Re: Booffett's blog
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2007, 09:53:18 AM »
Currently keeping only 3.5% in stocks while all others is cash  ;D
Money is a tool that brings greatness once you master it.