Author Topic: CPO Latest Updated News  (Read 125692 times)

Offline vincent88

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CPO Latest Updated News
« on: June 24, 2014, 09:02:39 AM »
Ramadan, Unusually, Not Good News for Palm Oil Sellers

Usually the Muslim festival of Ramadan is preceded by higher demand for palm oil, the world’s most widely-used vegetable oil, but this year it is not happening, and soyoil is to blame.

During Ramadan, Muslims don’t eat or drink during daylight hours, but break their fasts after nightfall, with this usually contributing to higher palm oil use. Last year, when Ramadan started on July 9, in the three-week period June 1-20, palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world’s second-largest exporter, rose around 15%.


A worker loading harvested oil palm fruit into a wheelbarrow at the Bell Eco Power palm oil plantation in Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia, in March.—Bloomberg NewsThis year is different. Ramadan starts this weekend, but Malaysia’s June 1-20 exports are down between 5.8% and 8.6% on month-earlier levels and have been slowing since early May, cargo surveyors Intertek and SGS say. Traders blame a narrowing of palm oil’s price discount to rival edible oils, particularly soybean oil.

Citi Futures specialist Sterling Smith says the premium of soyoil to palm oil is around $127 a metric ton, below the one-year average of $132. Just two weeks ago on June 10, the differential was around $117/ton.

Palm oil prices rallied to an 18-month high in March 2014 due to very dry weather in major producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia, with this contributing to a narrowing in the premium, although the price of benchmark palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia has eased 17% since then. Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil prices meanwhile hit a fourth-month low in early June although they are now 5.1% higher year-to-date.

India, the world’s leading importer of palm oil, is a factor. From February to May in 2013, palm imports made up 80% or more of Indian edible oil imports, said Govindlal G. Patel, managing partner of G.G. Patel & Nikhil Research Co. This proportion dropped to 60%-65% from March to May 2014, he said, citing data from The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

There are around 177 million Muslims in India, third only in size to populations in Indonesia and Pakistan

“Traditionally, Indians use soft oils like groundnut or rapeseed for food. Palm oil is not grown in India and is primarily an import so when the price premium narrows, it encourages the consumptions of other oils,” said Mr. Patel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that India will import 8.3 million tons of palm oil the marketing year which started last October, unchanged from a year ago. China, ranked second, is expected to import 6.3 million tons, down from 6.6 million tons last year.

Indonesian palm oil exports rose 22% in May, after a sharp fall in April. The country, which together with Malaysia produces 85% of the world’s global palm oil, does not issue regular data for the commodity.

Industry publication Oil World says that in May Indian soybean oil and sunflower seed oil imports more than trebled and doubled respectively, compared with year-earlier levels, while imports of palm oil and palm kernel oil fell 17%.

The outlook isn’t very encouraging for palm oil exporters. Some market analysts expect higher prices ahead, lasting well into 2015, further crimping sales, due to dry weather expected in coming weeks and months brought by the El Nino weather system.

By
Huileng Tan

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2014, 01:43:47 PM »
Economic slowdown, China palm oil imports may decline

According to a survey, China's imports of palm oil this year may be lower than they were a year ago about 11%, because of the economic slowdown, banks tighten imports of goods on credit. According to a Bloomberg News survey of 5 researchers and traders showed that in the 12 months ending on September 30, 2014, China imports may be reduced to 5.9 million tonnes of palm oil.       By contrast, United States Department of agriculture predicts 6.3 million tons of palm oil imports, China for two thousand thirteen-fourteenths, compared with 4.4%.       Only 7.4% Chinese gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, its slowest pace of growth since 2012. Chinese import demand may give Malaysia derivatives exchange (BMD) pressure on the crude palm oil futures prices.       So far this year, BMD crude palm oil futures has fallen by 8.2%, because of a slump in demand. Pledge of Chinese merchants had preferred to use Palm oil as a commodity, to obtain bank loans.       But that could change, because port of Qingdao metal warehouse receipt finance fraud investigation prompted the Bank to strengthen loan management. Analysts said palm oil is more for business purposes rather than household consumption, it is (China) slower economic growth is more sensitive.       With dwindling commodity financing, coupled with ample supply of soybeans, palm oil imports did not increase. On June 20, September crude palm oil futures on the BMD fell 0.2%, closed at 2442 ringgit per ton (about 757 million u.s. dollars). China's Dalian commodity exchange (DCE) of refined palm oil futures rose 0.6%, at 5938 Yuan/ton (954 million u.s. dollars).       So far this year, DCE volume was active in Palm oil futures fell 1.7%.       Analysts said the two thousand twelve-thirteenths annual imports reached 6.6 million tons of palm oil in China, hit a record high, partly due to January 1 this year, China implemented more stringent quality standards, import traders to rush in before it. Soybean import growth weakened Palm's market share. Customs figures show that during October 2013 to May 2014, China's soybean imports grew by 31%, which is equivalent to increasing the supply of about 2 million tons of soybean oil.

Source: Bo Yi Chih masters

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2014, 01:55:04 PM »
2014/15 global supply was likely to tighten

Germany Hamburg weekly published by the trade publication oil world said 2014/15 marketing year (October 2014 to September 2015) during the relatively high chance of world palm oil supplies tight.       
Oil world, said due to the insufficient rainfall leading producers of palm oil, leading to increases in Palm oil production is below average, and yields may decline during the fourth quarter of this year. Oil world added that if the second half of this year, the El Nino phenomenon, adverse impact on production will be even greater.

Source: Bo Yi Chih masters (Translate from chinese words)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2014, 01:36:37 AM »
Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014 - New Report Available


New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014"

 
[USPRwire, Mon Jun 23 2014] Strong growth prospects, opportunities for increased exports and government support will be the key factors driving growth in the Malaysian agribusiness sector. We see conditions being particularly favourable for sugar, poultry and cocoa production on the back of strong investment. However, we highlight that changing consumption patterns, disease outbreaks, sudden change s in policy and resources shortages could dent growth potential in the sector in the medium and longer term.

 Key Forecasts

 * Palm oil production growth to 2017/18: 9.3% to 21.1mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.
 * Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 15.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. The dominance and continued expansionary activities of market players F&N, Permanis and Yeo Hiap Seng have fuelled considerable growth in the Malaysian soft drinks sector, a significant factor fuelling demand for sugar.
 * Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 13.4% to 1.5mn tonnes. More investment in the sector - as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan - is expected to drive growth.
 * 2014 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 11.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase, to USD22.1bn (contributes to 8% of GDP)
 * 2014 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 4.7% expected in 2013, forecast to average 4.2% from 2014 to 2018).
 * 2014 consumer price inflation: 3.2% (up from 2.1% in 2013, forecast to average 2.5% from 2014 to 2018).
 * 2014 Central Bank policy rate: 3.0% eop (same as 2013, forecast to average 3.35% from 2013 to 2018).


 Key Developments

 Palm oil companies in Malaysia and Indonesia are starting to turn their back on the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a non-profit organisation issuing the certificate that validates that the production of palm oil is sustainable. The programme appears as too constraining and...

 The Malaysia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

 BMI's Malaysia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

 * Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
 * Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
 * Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

 About Fast Market Research

 Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  


Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2014, 09:05:29 AM »
Palm oil futures volatile flat, focusing on tomorrow's export data (25 June 2014)

On Tuesday Malaysia palm oil futures recovered earlier losses, briefly hitting a near one-month high, closing nearly flat.       
Crude oil prices fell, traders prior to the release of key export data transfer cartridge. Indicators in September, palm oil contract closed 0.1%, tonne 2,484 Myr (ringgit).       
Hitting a low of m $ 2,464 plate earlier in the contract, it recovered nearly a month high of m $ 2,492. ' Current market waits for tomorrow's export figures, ' Kuala Lumpur, a foreign brokerage firms, dealers said, ' today the market confined to rangebound, waiting for messages.       ' Cargo Societe Generale de Surveillance and investigation agency Intertek Testing Services will be announced on June 25 Malaysia June 1-25th palm oil export figures. ' Because the export figures tomorrow, buying from China slows, ' these traders say, ' tomorrow's export data, or earlier than (last week) as the air. ' Advancers 31,076, less than an average of 35,000.

Source: Reuters the Chinese website

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2014, 11:44:21 AM »
MALAYSIA JUNE 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,126,927 (+3%) TONS: INTERTEK

Shipments rose 3% to 1,126,927 tons  from 1,093,703 tons in same period May, according to e-mailed  statement from Intertek.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2014, 12:02:13 AM »
Palm prices to drop as Indonesia lags biodiesel targets-Mistry

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil prices could drop to between 2,300-2,500 ringgit per tonne over the next few weeks, missing an earlier forecast by about 13 percent given Indonesia's disappointing uptake of palm-based biodiesel, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said on Thursday.

Benchmark palm prices were initially expected to trade between 2,600 ringgit to 2,900 ringgit ($810-$900), or an average of 2,750 ringgit, over July to October in the absence of a crop damaging El Nino weather pattern.

"Why have palm oil prices disappointed? In a nutshell - the failure of Indonesia to live up to its commitment for use of palm biodiesel in transport fuels," Mistry said.

Government officials and analysts say Indonesia is set to miss its ambitious targets on biodiesel consumption this year due to logistical and infrastructure problems.

Mistry slashed his global biodiesel demand growth forecast by half to 1.5 million tonnes for the year to September.

"I believe Bursa Malaysia Derivatives futures on the third month should trade for the next few weeks in a range of 2,300 to 2,500 ringgit," Mistry said at a palm oil seminar in Mumbai.

While demand will be robust at the lower end, a rise to near 2,500 ringgit could curb interest and push up Malaysian stocks to a peak of 2.5 million tonnes by November, Mistry said, which would be the highest since January last year.

Palm prices, however, may rise to 2,600 ringgit if the current dry weather drags on beyond the next couple of weeks, and even hit 2,800 ringgit depending on the length and severity of El Nino, he added.

El Nino, the Spanish word for boy, is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that can cause floods in parts of the world but trigger droughts in other regions, including Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.

Benchmark Malaysian palm futures surged to a more than one-year peak of 2,916 ringgit in March as dryness scorched plantations across top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and on fears El Nino would develop from June or July.

Prices have slipped more than 15 percent since then to 2,471 ringgit as fears of an El Nino hurting crops have eased.

SUPPLY RISE

Production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will likely climb faster this year in the event of a moderate El Nino, said Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries.

"If the El Nino turns out to be mild and delayed, as many weathermen are predicting of late, palm oil production will turn out to be better than my earlier estimates," he said.

Mistry raised his forecasts for Malaysia's output to between 19.7-19.9 million tonnes this year, from an earlier estimate of 19.5-19.7 million tonnes. He retained his outlook for Indonesia's production at 30.5 million tonnes.

While he kept his estimate for a 6.8 million tonnes increase in global oilseed supplies unchanged, he lowered his forecast for growth in global demand for edible oils to 5.0 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes for the year to September.

This would weigh on palm prices, which should take an additional hit if India - the world's top cooking oil importer - hikes duties on refined edible oil imports to protect its domestic oilseed processing industry.

"Perhaps around September we must expect the Indian government to raise the import duty on refined oils so as to put the beleaguered Indian refining industry and the Indian oleochemical industry on a level playing field," Mistry said.

Official sources told Reuters earlier this year that concerns over inflation would prevent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government from acting quickly on import duties and that a hike was unlikely before the budget in July.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2014, 12:18:23 AM »
Palm Oil Exports from Indonesia Expected to Rise 15% in 2nd Half 2014


The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) expects that Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm oil derivatives will increase between 10 and 15 percent to 11.29 million tons in the second half of 2014 from 9.82 million tons in the first half of this year. If achieved, then total CPO exports (and derivatives) from Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2014 would be 21.11 million tons. Assuming an average CPO price of USD $895 per ton, these exports can be worth USD $18.89 billion in total.

Traditionally, exports of CPO rise in the second half of the year due to higher global demand amid several religious festivities (Ramadan, Idul Fitri and Christmas) as well as New Year. As such, CPO exports in the second half of the year usually account for roughly 70 percent of total CPO exports in a year.

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:



                                2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014¹
Production
(million metric tons)   16.8    19.2    19.4    21.8   23.5    26.5    26.0    26.5
Export
(million metric tons)    n.a     14.2    15.5    15.6   16.5    18.1    21.2    21.1
Export
(in USD billion)            n.a     15.6    10.0    16.4   20.2   21.6    19.0    18.9


¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture

An official at Gapki said that Indonesian CPO exports have already started to grow in May 2014 after plunging considerably in the previous month. In April, only 1.38 million tons of CPO were exported. However, this recovered in May to 1.7 million tons (a 23 percentage point growth month-to-month) mainly due to higher demand from Muslim countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan (ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan). Gapki stated that demand for Indonesian CPO from these two countries surged 336 percent (mtm) in May although in terms of volume it remains modest compared to CPO exports to China or India.

Increased demand for Indonesian CPO in the second half of 2014 can grow further if a new El Nino cycle emerges later this year. Since March 2014, speculation about a new cycle spread. This weather phenomenon can result in CPO production rates to drop by 5 to 10 percent (thereby positively affecting the CPO price).

The performance of Indonesia’s CPO export sector is also affected by the country’s domestic CPO consumption, particularly in the context of the government’s biofuel program. The Indonesian government raised the mandatory amount of palm oil (fatty acid methyl ester) blended in biodiesel from 7.5 percent to 10 percent in 2013 (for power plants that use biodiesel, the mandatory amount has been raised to 20 percent). The Association of Indonesian Biofuel Producers (Aprobi) stated that the mandatory amount will increase further to 20 percent by the period 2016-2020. However, the biofuel program has not functioned optimally yet. This year, the program is expected to require about 2.5 million tons of CPO, an increase from 1 million ton in 2013. If the program will expand, then it will reduce CPO exports from Indonesia.   

In 2013, total CPO exports from Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, stood at 21 million tons (or USD $19 billion). Most of Indonesian CPO is shipped to India, Eurozone, China, USA, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Indonesian CPO production in 2014 is estimated to reach 26 to 27 million tons. This is slightly lower than the initial forecast of 29 million tons but higher than last year’s realization of 26.0 million tons.


Indonesian Palm Oil Export 2014:

Period          Million Ton
January             1.57
February           1.58
March               1.79
April                 1.38
May                 1.70
June¹               1.80
Total                9.82


¹ indicates forecast
Source: Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki)



Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2014, 09:33:58 AM »
VEGOILS-Palm oil ends lower as crude prices begin to ease

* Oil steady around $114 as Iraq exports in focus

* June 1-20 output seen unchanged from May - growers

* Indonesia cuts July palm export tax - minister

* India's 2014/15 edible oil imports seen up 5.4 pct

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, June 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures

ended lower on Thursday to snap a three-day winning streak as

crude oil prices began to ease, although losses were capped by

an uptick in exports and anticipation that hot weather would

trim palm output.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.5 percent to

2,471 ringgit ($768) per tonne by the day's close, reversing

gains in the morning session.

Total traded volume stood at 43,886 lots of 25 tonnes, much

higher than the average 35,000 lots.

"You can see that there's some fall in energy prices,

especially on the WTI side this afternoon," said a trader with a

foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"This market has tried the 2,500 ringgit level twice, but it

did not manage to stay above that. If it attempts the third time

and still can't stay above 2,500 ringgit, then the market will

probably see some correction," the trader added.

Brent crude oil slipped 15 cents to $113.85 a barrel by 0825

GMT, having fallen in the past four sessions. Traders, however,

are watching developments in Iraq for the possibility of export

disruption from OPEC's second-largest producer.

Oil prices rose sharply after violence in Iraq spiked fears

of supply disruption, which in turn made palm oil a cheaper

option to produce biodiesel.

Technicals showed palm oil faces a resistance at 2,513-2,554

ringgit, while its support level is at 2,472-2,422 ringgit,

according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

But hot and dry weather in Malaysia this month could be an

early sign of the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern,

market participants said, keeping palm prices propped up.

"A lot of people see June production going up, but because

of the weather, it is not," another Kuala Lumpur-based trader

said.

"You can see that towards the end of the month, exports are

creeping up, and production is coming down. The market is

friendly based on these data."

Traders said the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of

growers, estimates palm output in the first twenty days of the

month to be relatively unchanged from May.

Short spells of dry weather would hinder growth and quality

of yields, while a prolonged drought could disrupt fruit

formation, affecting output six to seven months later.

Cargo surveyors on Wednesday reported that exports of

Malaysian palm oil products rose 0.4-3.0 percent during June

1-25 compared to the same period a month ago, the first sign of

improvement after recording weaker shipment volumes throughout

the month.

India's edible oil imports, including palm oil, may rise 5.4

percent to 11.7 million tonnes in 2014/15 as a weak monsoon

hurts domestic oilseeds production, Govindbhai Patel, a trade

expert from India's western city of Rajkot, said at a regional

palm oil conference in Mumbai on Thursday.

Bigger demand from the world's leading cooking oil importer

could support palm prices which have shed more than 7 percent so

far this year.

Indonesia, the world's top palm grower, lowered its export

tax for crude palm oil to 10.5 percent in July from 12 percent

in June, an industry official said on Thursday. Malaysia will

cut its own duty for July to a more competitive 5 percent from

5.5 percent a month ago.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract

rose 0.1 percent in late Asian trade, while the most

active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities

Exchange was nearly flat.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1030 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL JUL4 2493 -4.00 2493 2515 670

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2483 -8.00 2480 2509 1951

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2471 -12.00 2469 2502 23364

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 6058 -18.00 6034 6076 254678

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 7052 -2.00 7026 7062 310948

CBOT SOY OIL JUL4 40.68 +0.03 40.62 40.89 1961

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 106.45 -0.05 106.35 106.81 14447

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.216 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2251 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Sunil Nair and Tom Pfeiffer)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2014, 09:46:16 AM »
Rupiah Drop Spurs Mandiri Shift to Palm Producers

The Indonesian rupiah’s decline to a four-month low is encouraging the nation’s biggest domestic mutual-fund manager to shift money into palm-oil exporters at the expense of construction companies.

The currency has retreated 6.1 percent against the dollar this quarter, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and traded at the weakest level since February today. The last two times the rupiah depreciated at least this much in a quarter, the Jakarta Agricultural Index jumped an average 20 percent during the following three months.

PT Mandiri Manajemen Investasi is anticipating another rally this time as the combination of a weaker currency and rising palm oil prices improves the outlook for export earnings, according to Priyo Santoso, the Jakarta-based money manager’s chief investment officer. Builders are turning expensive after posting the biggest gain among nine industry groups in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index this year, he said.

“Commodity prices have bottomed already and construction stocks have gained significantly, so it is part of the rotation,”Santoso, who oversees the equivalent of $1.8 billion, said in an interview. “The commodity sector has been treated as a hedge for the strengthening of the dollar.”

The rupiah fell to 12,099 per dollar today amid concern the nation’s current-account deficit will widen after April showed the largest trade shortfall in nine months. It was at 11,360 per dollar at the end of March.

Overseas Sales
The retreat helped send the Jakarta Agricultural index to a fourth day of gains today, climbing 0.7 percent to the highest level in almost six weeks. A gauge of construction companies rose 0.3 percent.

PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology (SMAR), a unit of Indonesia’s biggest palm oil producer, earned 57 percent of its revenue from dollar-denominated exports in 2013. PT Astra Agro Lestari’s (AALI) average selling price in the first quarter for the world’s most-consumed edible oil climbed to 8,949 rupiah (74 U.S. cents) per kilo, from 6,464 rupiah a year earlier.

The Jakarta Agricultural Index jumped 17 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and gained 22 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 after the rupiah tumbled during the previous three months. The Jakarta Construction, Property & Real Estate Index fell both times.

For Arief Wana, a director at PT Ashmore Asset Management Indonesia, which oversees an equivalent of about $390 million in Indonesian assets, it’s too early to switch out of construction stocks because the next government will boost spending on infrastructure.

Presidential Election
Both of the nation’s leading contenders for president in the July 9 election, Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and former general Prabowo Subianto, have pledged to improve infrastructure in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Widodo said he wants to build 2,000 kilometers (1,244 miles) of new roads, 10 seaports and 10 industrial zones. Prabowo pledged to spend 1,400 trillion rupiah in five years to build 3,000 kilometers of roads and 4,000 kilometers of railways, along with airports, seaports, power and telecommunication networks.

“These are the sectors that will enjoy multi-year growth,” Wana said by phone on June 24. “The next government will have to beef up infrastructure spending. It is too risky to shift your holdings based on the rupiah.”

The outlook for rising commodity prices makes agricultural exporters a better bet, Santoso said. Palm oil futures, which fell 18 percent from March 10 through June 11, have since rebounded more than 4 percent. Futures climbed to a four-week high in Kuala Lumpur yesterday on concern a prolonged period of dryness caused by the El Nino weather pattern may curb production.

“When El Nino comes into the equation, it would strengthen the argument to go for plantation stocks,” Santoso said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Harry Suhartono in Jakarta at hsuhartono@bloomberg.net

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2014, 10:13:27 PM »
Palm Oil Seen Rallying Less by Mistry on El Nino Delay, Biofuel

Palm oil, the most-used cooking oil, may rally less than an earlier forecast as demand for biodiesel trails estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International.

Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit ($873) a metric ton by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said, scaling back his March 5 forecast for a run-up to as much as 3,500 ringgit. Palm may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,500 ringgit in the next few weeks, temporarily reaching 2,600 ringgit if a dry period in Southeast Asia extends beyond the next two weeks, he said at a conference in Mumbai.

Prices in Kuala Lumpur have retreated from an 18-month high in March as rising output from Indonesia and Malaysia, the largest producers, add to record global cooking oil supplies. The failure of Indonesia and Malaysia to absorb additional quantities of biodiesel has disappointed palm oil prices, Mistry said on Thursday. Cheaper palm may help extend a decline in global food costs amid forecasts for the El Nino that often roils global agriculture markets.

“Production of palm oil has been better than expected since February,” Mistry said, according to prepared remarks. “If the El Nino turns out to be mild and delayed, as many weathermen are predicting of late, palm oil production will turn out to be better than my earlier estimates.”

Biggest producers

Indonesia may produce 30.5 million tons or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total 19.7 million to 19.9 million tons, more than the March forecast of as much as 19.7 million tons, said Mistry, who’s traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for about 86 percent of world supplies.

Futures traded 1.1 percent lower at 2,444 ringgit a ton by midday break on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Friday. Prices jumped to 2,916 ringgit on March 11, the highest level since September 2012. Mistry, who in November correctly forecast palm oil would trade from 2,600 ringgit to 2,900 ringgit through March, said his price outlook is based on the assumption that Brent crude oil trades in a range of $100-$120 a barrel.

“Prices will depend very much on the development and the severity of El Nino in the medium term,” Mistry said. “Palm has become far too dependent on biodiesel demand and that is an unreliable, opportunistic and sporadic market.”

El Nino alert

A moderate El Nino would reduce output by as much as 12 percent in Malaysia, according to IOI Corporation. An event as severe as the one in 1997-98 may cut production by as much as 15 percent, chief executive Lee Yeow Chor estimates. Goldman Sachs Group says disruptions associated with El Ninos have been most important for palm oil, coffee and sugar.

The event, caused by the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific, brings drought to the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America. Australia remains on El Nino alert even as a slowing in Pacific Ocean warming may push back its onset to September, the Bureau of Meteorology said June 17.

There’s a 60 percent chance that an El Nino will set in by the end of August, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. The probability of the phenomenon becoming established by the end of December rises to as high as 80 percent, the United Nations agency said in a statement.

‘Hot spots’

“El Nino may be delayed, but we’re already experiencing dry weather,” said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur, who’s covered the plantations industry for 10 years.

“We are already seeing hot spots developing in Sumatra and West Malaysia, so that means rain has not been sufficient,” possibly hurting production later, he said.

The southwest monsoon, which started on May 15 and may last until September, will generally be a dry season for Malaysia, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.

Palm’s rally in March, caused by a dry period in Southeast Asia in February, reduced its appeal as a feedstock for biodiesel and discouraged its use in Indonesia, Mistry said. The country’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months of this year is roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier, and full-year consumption will not increase, he said.

“We are told this is due to a lack of infrastructure for blending and handling,” said Mistry. “While this may be one reason, the real reason could be the high price of CPO and the lack of competitiveness of biodiesel in 2014.”

Global food costs dropped 1.2 percent last month and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago, according to a gauge of 55 food items tracked by the Rome-based Food & Agriculture Organization.

Bloomberg

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2014, 10:21:34 PM »
Physical buyers to dominate trading in CPO futures

KUALA LUMPUR: Physical buyers are expected to dominate trading in crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives next week, with the prices to move between RM2,400 and RM2,550 per tonne.
Interband Group of Companies Senior Palm Oil Trader, Jim Teh, said demand would likely be lower next week amid high inventories in the two biggest producing countries -- Indonesia and Malaysia.
"High future prices will attract physical buyers as they tend to look for cheaper CPO prices," he told Bernama, citing stocks in Indonesia currently stood at more than three million tonnes while Malaysia hold about 1.8 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd derivative product specialist, David Ng, said a stronger ringgit against the US dollar was also likely to put pressure on prices next week.
"However, the overall strength in crude oil futures and improved export demand may limit the downside," he said.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, July 2014 gained RM8 to RM2,468 per tonne,
August 2014 rose RM11 to RM2,462 per tonne, September 2014 added RM3 to RM2,445 per tonne while October 2014 was up RM6 to RM2,445 per tonne.
Weekly turnover decreased to 182,597 lots from 214,546 lots last week while open interest widened to 227,681 contracts from 221,583 contracts last Friday.
On the physical market, July South shed RM5 to RM2,495 per tonne.-- Bernama

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2014, 10:25:59 PM »
Palm down for second day as crude cools, but set for third weekly gain

Benchmark prices shot up to a near one-month high of RM2,511 earlier this week, as violence in Iraq sparked fears of supply disruptions from Opec's second-largest producer, in turn making palm a more attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. This demand cooled off as crude prices eased later. Palm prices, however, are little changed from last week and are set for a third straight weekly gain with a 0.1% rise so far.  "The palm market went up along with higher crude oil. When that came down, our market also followed," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage, adding that overnight losses in soy markets also weighed on palm prices. By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had inched down 1.1% to RM2,444 per tonne. Total traded volume stood at 15,609 lots of 25 tonnes, above the average 12,500 lots. Brent crude was unchanged at US$113.21 (RM363.18) a barrel by 0525 GMT (1.25pm MYT) after falling 79 cents in the previous session, and is heading for its biggest weekly loss since March as investors unwound positions on reduced concerns over exports from strife-torn Iraq. US crude was down a cent at US$105.83, and is set for a 1.4% weekly loss, the biggest in a month. Technicals showed palm oil's next target is RM2,422, although it faces a resistance at RM2,513-RM2,554, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Palm oil prices could drop to between RM2,300-RM2,500 per tonne over the next few weeks, missing an earlier forecast by about 13% given Indonesia's disappointing uptake of palm-based biodiesel, leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said yesterday. Mistry added that while demand will be robust at the lower end of this range, a rise to near RM2,500 could curb interest and push up Malaysian palm stocks to a peak of 2.5 million tonnes by November. Stocks at end-May stood at 1.84 million tonnes. "Many people say that the price level now is on the higher side, and that it should go lower," the trader added. Another Kuala Lumpur-based commodities dealer said the easing palm prices would likely provide a weaker tone for next week.

Strength in the Malaysian currency today also stemmed buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The ringgit rose as much as 0.4% to 3.2050 against the greenback today, its strongest since June 13, buoyed by expectations that Malaysia's central bank will raise interest rates next month. But the current hot and dry weather across Malaysia capped losses, keeping palm prices in a tight range between RM2,442-RM2,469. Short spells of dry weather can hinder growth of palm fruit. Some market players say the heat could be early signs of the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern which is slated to hit Southeast Asia later this year. In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract fell 0.2% in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.5%. – Reuters, June 27, 2014.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2014, 04:39:07 PM »
(BFW) Malaysia 1-30 June Palm Oil Exports 1,391,942 Tons (+5.8%) Intertek

Shipments in June rose 5.8% from  1,315,952 tons in May

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2014, 11:03:52 PM »
Signs of weakening of El Nino, United States weather conditions will restrict crude palm oil prices

Malaysia banks (Maybank), said Nino index weakened United States agricultural areas the weather is good, may restrict crude palm oil in the short term gains. Reported so far, according to some international meteorological model, the intensity of this year's El Nino phenomenon may be weak to moderate.       
And in recent weeks, earlier predicted will show signs of strong El Nino phenomenon has disappeared.       
Report notes that current United States corn and soybean yield prospects, corn seeding has been completed, but soybean planting is drawing to a close.       
But Iraq tensions, CPO prices constitutes indirect support, because the rise in crude oil prices of 10 dollars per barrel, crude palm oil price rose 235 ringgit a tonne.       
Report unless Iraq escalation of tension in May 2014, CPO prices will continue for the period August per ton fluctuating between RM 2400 and 2600 ringgit, because consensus is ample supply of oilseeds.       
Currently listing South American soybeans are harvested, while United States soybean acreage data figures released by the Government this year hit a record high.  Reported years, CPO prices tend to decline this year, as crude palm oil production is expected to increase in the second half. (Bo Yi Chih masters)

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2014, 09:43:16 AM »
Weak soy, fears of rising stocks drags palm to near 3-week low

Malaysian palm oil futures slid to a near three-week low today, stretching its losing streak into a fourth session following heavy losses in overseas soyoil markets, and as investors fretted about rising stocks of the tropical oil.

Soybean prices fell to near four-month lows after the US Department of Agriculture surprised the market with projections for bigger stockpiles and record production late yesterday.

Usda reported June 1 soybean stocks at 405 million bushels, above market estimates of 378 million, and forecast soybean plantings up 11% on year to a record high 84.8 million acres.

Bigger supplies of soybeans for crushing would weaken soyoil prices and narrow its premium over palm oil, which could prompt price-sensitive buyers to switch to rival edible oil instead.

"The major factor is the weakness in soybean oil, due to record high planting acreage, which was confirmed by the recent Usda report. That is the main reason why palm prices fell sharply today and is still maintaining at the low," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage.

Plantation analysts at RHB Research Institute said in a note today that the fall in soybean and soybean oil prices will likely put pressure on palm oil prices in the immediate term.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell to a June 12 low of RM2,385 in early trade, before settling at RM2,387 per tonne by the midday break, a 1.6% drop.

Total traded volume stood at 20,167 lots of 25 tonnes, nearly double the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to slide more to RM2,341 per tonne, as it has broken below a support at RM2,422, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian palm prices fell nearly 8% in the second-quarter this year to record its biggest quarterly loss since September 2012, weighed by poor export demand, a strong ringgit, and rising inventory levels.

Market participants said the prospects of bigger stockpiles in Malaysia, which have grown continuously since March to stand at 1.84 million tonnes at end-May, will likely continue to pressure prices despite a small pick up in export demand.

"There's the fear of rising palm stocks," the Kuala Lumpur-based trader added. "The recent better exports is not going to stop stocks from rising above two million tonnes in 2-3 months time."

Cargo surveyors on Monday reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil product rose between 4.6-5.8% in June compared to a month ago, thanks to firm demand from India and China.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange plunged 2.8% in early Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract edged up 0.5%.

In other markets, Brent futures held above US$112 (RM359.30) a barrel today as investor attention shifted back to demand after China's factory growth rose to a six-month high, adding to signs the economy of the world's second-biggest oil consumer is regaining strength. – Reuters, July 1, 2014.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2014, 11:42:10 PM »
Palm snaps 4-day losing streak on short-covering, higher supply weighs

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, reversing losses early in session to snap a four-day losing streak on short-covering by traders after prices fell to near three-week lows, although concerns of rising edible oil supplies capped gains.

Prices slid on Tuesday to a June 12 low of 2,385 ringgit, following overseas soy markets that plunged after the US Department of Agriculture surprised traders with projections for bigger stocks and record production of the oilseed.

"There was a bit of intraday short-covering," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The unusual movement in yesterday's session when prices went up from 2,405 ringgit to 2,424 ringgit in the last 10 minutes of trade is also keeping players on the cautious side," the trader added.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 0.3 percent at 2,425 ringgit ($757) per tonne, with prices range-bound between 2,405-2,436 ringgit.

Trading volumes were thin at only 27,522 lots of 25 tonnes compared with the daily average of 35,000 lots.

"The palm market is very lethargic. There's minimum movement in overseas soybean oils, so there's minimum impact on our market today," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Palm typically tracks soyoil, a rival food and fuel substitute.

The most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 0.2 percent in late Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract was up 0.3 percent.

Technicals were bearish. Malaysian palm oil is expected to revisit its July 1 low of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Prospects of bigger stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's second-largest oil palm grower, also pressured the market, although some analysts said biodiesel demand will likely underpin prices going forward.

"While we do expect June palm oil inventory to gain 5 percent to 1.93 million metric tonnes, the downside in CPO prices should be limited to 2,350 ringgit per tonne as this is the level where we expect biodiesel producers in Indonesia to be profitable," said Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim.

"This should naturally spur discretionary demand in Indonesia and prevent further fall in CPO prices," Lim said in a note on Wednesday.

Malaysian palm stocks have grown continuously since March to stand at 1.84 million tonnes at end-May.

In other markets, oil fell towards $111 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest in almost three weeks, on a possible substantial recovery in Libyan exports after rebels said they would reopen two oil terminals.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2014, 02:23:03 PM »
Global palm oil exports in the first half of this year fell by 1.6 million tons

 Germany Hamburg the trade publication oil world report shows that world palm oil exports fell in the first half of this year, this is the first time in many years, because palm oil prices weakened, boost demand for sunflower oil and soybean oil.       

Oil world says 2014 from 1 June, exports of palm oil in the world fell by 1.6 million tons over the previous year; in contrast, palm oil exports rose to 31% from a year earlier. the past five years, exports increased by an average of 1.2 million tons in the same period.       

Oil world said that the EU is unique to Malaysia and Indonesia oil palm areas of increased demand, because the European Union needs more palm oil for biodiesel production.   But oil world said that because palm oil inventories in importing countries has fallen sharply, as this means that demand will increase in the coming months. (Master of Bo Yi Chih)

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2014, 02:28:49 PM »
Second half of 2014 Indonesian palm oil exports rose 15%

According to the Indonesian palm oil Association (Gapki) said the 2014 exports of Indonesia's crude palm oil and its derivatives in the second half than in the first half of 9.82 million tons to 15%, reached 11.29 million tons. If this prediction becomes a reality in 2014, total exports of Indonesia's crude palm oil and its derivatives to 21.11 million tons.       

According to 895 USD/ton average price calculations, 2014 Indonesian palm oil exports will amount to $ 18.89 billion. Under normal circumstances, CPO prices will rise in the second half, holiday approaching, the increase in global demand.       

Crude palm oil exports in the second half usually account for annual exports of around 70%. Gapki, officials said, although the sharp drop in exports in April, but in May Indonesia's CPO export has begun to improve. In April exported only 1.38 million tons of crude palm oil in Indonesia. But May increase to 1.7 million tons, and rose 23%, mainly due to demand in countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan.       

May, Bangladesh and Pakistan, substantial growth in demand for Indonesian palm oil 336%, but with China or India than, its export volume is still low. Later this year the El Nino phenomenon, then the second half of 2014 Indonesia's CPO export demand will further increase. Since March 2014, the market has been speculation that El Nino phenomenon this year.       

El Nino phenomenon may lead to reduced output of crude palm oil 5dao10%, the CPO prices are good. Indonesia's CPO export industries are also performing under the influence of domestic crude palm oil consumption, especially the Government's biofuel projects. Indonesian Government by 2013 palm oil biodiesel-blended rate rose from 7.5% to 10% (for power plants, the proportion had increased to 20%). The Indonesian biofuel producers Association (Aprobi) said that by 2016 to 2020, bio-diesel blended rate will increase further to 20%. biofuel projects has not been well implemented. The project will need about 2.5 million tons of CPO this year, up from 1 million tonnes in 2013.       

If the project continues to improve the mixing rate, then this will reduce Indonesia's CPO exports. 2013 Indonesia's CPO exports to 21 million tonnes, worth about $ 19 billion.       Most of Indonesia's CPO exports to India, Europe, China, the United States, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.   2014 Indonesian CPO output may reach 2600 to 27 million tonnes, slightly less than the earlier estimate of 29 million tons, but higher than the 26 million tons last year. (Bo Yi Chih masters)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2014, 08:27:06 AM »
Palm oil futures fell, creating the largest weekly loss in five weeks

  On Friday Malaysia palm oil futures fell, and registered the biggest weekly loss in five weeks, for Myr (ringgit), highest in more than seven months, buying interest was inhibited.     

Malaysia ringgit rose up to 0.6% to 3.1790, the strongest level since November 20. Local commodities brokerage firm, dealers said, "by the stronger ringgit, and passed on the market palm oil supply crunch in the near future, we expect that will change in the future of both up & down, a unclear direction.     

"The index in September, palm oil futures closed down 0.9%, 2,402 ringgit per ton, 6th trading day loss out from 7th trading day.   -1.8% palm oil prices this week, the largest weekly loss in five weeks.     

Trading volume was 29,083, below-average of 35,000.  Reuters poll of plantations, traders and analysts survey, expected in late June Malaysia palm oil inventories fell 2.2% to 1.8 million tons due to overseas sales speed and dry weather limit production.

(Chinese Reuters net)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2014, 09:11:04 AM »
Exports improved production cuts June palm oil stock bears

(Kuala Lumpur, 4th) with Palm-oil exports are expected to improve, and arid climate affect yield, next Thursday (10th) upcoming June palm oil stocks data, expected to be dropped for the first time in 4 months, May reduce the level of 2.2% to 1.8 million tonnes.  To 7, Reuters Trader, plantation companies and analysts, according to the median forecast, due June palm oil exports is expected to grow on a monthly 3.2% to 1.45 million tonnes, with Palm oil production, is expected by month-0.4% slightly to 1.65 million metric tons and palm oil inventory data is expected to appear in 4 months back for the first time. Palm oil inventory data are key factors affecting the original palm-oil prices, and so if this prediction comes true, I believe will be available for the original palm-oil prices this year has fallen by 10% give a hand.

Recovery not as expected

Planting staff member, who did not want to be named said that due to the dry climate impact, up to now, the dome of the company's output is not satisfactory, and therefore believe that the dome of the other will not be spared.  In this case, June Brown believes will be a monthly oil production declines.  Original palm-oil prices weakening, mainly because of the recovery in exports is far worse than expected, Malaysia's palm oil exports for the first 5 months of this year to 6.64 million tonnes, 11% less than a year earlier.  In any case, the container Survey Agency data show June exports of palm oil 5% to 6% higher than in May, mainly due to China and India demand-led.  On local demands, told the Reuters survey predicted that due to the Muslim community, more palm oil will be consumed in front of the holy month of Ramadan, so that June palm oil consumption in China is expected to 280,935 tonnes, up from 150,000 to 180,000 tonnes, the average interval.  However, a line of CIMB futures trader alert, although showing signs of rain weather, but fasting month or will affect the harvest, as well as the number of plantation companies, which impact yield. Ramadan comes once, palm oil production is expected to be further restricted.  Another key factor in the potential impact of palm oil production, it is still closely following the El Nino (El Nino). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) current forecast in July, has a 60% chance El Nino occurred between May and August, and from October to December with odds of 75% to 80%.


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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2014, 09:47:43 PM »
VEGOILS-Palm drops on strong ringgit, records biggest weekly loss in five

* Prices down 1.8 pct this week, biggest drop in 5 weeks

* Malaysian ringgit rises to highest in more than 7 mths

* Malaysia's June palm stocks set for first drop in 4 months

- Reuters poll

* Palm oil to revisit low of 2,385 ringgit - technicals

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures

edged down on Friday and recorded their biggest weekly drop in

five, with buying interest curbed as the ringgit hit its highest

in more than seven months.

The Malaysian ringgit gained as much as 0.6 percent

to 3.1790 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since Nov. 20,

making the ringgit-priced feedstock more expensive for overseas

investors and refiners.

"We predict a mixed and uncertain direction due the strong

ringgit and talk of tight palm supplies for the nearby period,"

said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.9 percent to

2,402 ringgit ($754) per tonne by Friday's close, notching its

sixth day of decline in seven.

Palm prices have lost 1.8 percent this week, marking their

biggest weekly drop in five.

Total traded volume stood at 29,083 lots of 25 tonnes, below

the average 35,000 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to

revisit its July 1 low of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, as it has

completed a rebound from this level, said Reuters market analyst

Wang Tao.

A Reuters survey of planters, traders and analysts showed

that Malaysia's June palm oil stocks are set fall 2.2 percent to

1.80 million tonnes at end-June, their first drop in four

months, due to a pickup in overseas sales and as dry weather

curbed output.

Market players are looking to monthly industry data due next

Thursday on Malaysia's palm oil stocks, output and exports in

June to gauge supply and global demand for the tropical oil.

In other markets, Brent futures held steady above $111 a

barrel on Friday on signs of an improving demand outlook,

although the benchmark is still set to post its biggest weekly

loss since early January as supply worries that have rattled oil

markets for weeks recede.



In other competing vegetable oil markets, the most active

soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange

shed 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The U.S. soyoil contract

is closed for a holiday.



Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1008 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL JUL4 2458 -11.00 2450 2460 268

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2420 -21.00 2420 2451 600

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2402 -22.00 2399 2433 10838

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 5792 -10.00 5782 5814 203766

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 6726 -44.00 6724 6782 213012

CBOT SOY OIL DEC4 38.77 -0.01 38.56 39.05 28764

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 103.83 -0.23 103.81 104.13 8979

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.1845 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2043 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Joseph Radford and Gopakumar Warrier)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2014, 02:25:34 PM »
Palm Inventories in Malaysia Jump for Fourth Month on Production

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the biggest supplier after Indonesia, probably climbed for a fourth month as output rose to the highest level for June since 2011.

Reserves increased to 1.86 million metric tons from 1.84 million tons in May and 1.65 million tons a year earlier, according to the median of seven estimates from planters, analysts and traders compiled by Bloomberg. Production was 1.66 million tons, the survey showed. That’s the highest for June since 1.75 million tons three years ago, according to the Palm Oil Board. The board releases the data on July 10.

Futures tumbled 18 percent since reaching an 18-month high in March as production expanded and demand in food and biofuel trailed estimates. Record US output of soybeans, crushed to make an alternative oil, is adding to global cooking oil supply this year. Retreating prices may extend a third monthly decline in global food costs as measured by the United Nations.

“Exports this year are quite bad and production seems to be very good in the first half, so the market is reflecting those fundamentals,” said David Ng, a Kuala Lumpur-based derivatives specialist at Phillip Futures. “As long as inventory remains below the 2 million-ton mark, we still can see a bit of support for the market.”

Futures fell 0.9 percent to 2,402 ringgit ($755) a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur on Friday. Prices tumbled to an eight-month low of 2,362 ringgit on June 12 after reaching 2,916 ringgit on March 11, the highest level since September 2012.

Exports shrink

Shipments from Malaysia fell 8.5 percent to 8.1 million tons in the first half, while output increased 9.1 percent to 9.15 million tons, according to Bloomberg calculations based on board data and the survey estimates. In June, exports rose 3.2 percent from the previous month to 1.45 million tons, the highest since December, the survey showed. Shipments climbed 5.8 percent to 1.39 million tons, surveyor Intertek said.

Production may be unchanged or slightly lower this month as plantation workers tend to be less productive in the fasting month of Ramadan and many take leave for the Eid celebration, Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank, said by phone.

Palm oil may trade between 2,350 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit this month depending on the progress of soybean planting in the US and crude oil prices, she said.

Mistry forecast

About 84.8 million acres will be sown with soybeans, the most ever and up 11 percent from last year, the US Department of Agriculture said on June 30. Soybean futures slumped to the lowest since December 2011 this month. Crude oil rose in June as violence in Iraq escalated, boosting demand for biofuels.

Palm may rally less than earlier forecast as demand misses estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International. Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said on June 26, cutting his March 5 forecast for a run-up to as much as 3,500 ringgit.

Weaker production may be seen in Malaysia in the fourth quarter due to a prolonged dry spell in the first three months of the year, according to Rabobank International. Parts of some growing areas in Malaysia and Indonesia got less than 50 millimeters of rain in January and February, the driest spell since 1997, according to MDA Weather Services.

Demand may remain weak as top buyers India and China opt for more soybean oil as the spread between the two edible oils narrows, said Ng of Phillip Futures. The spread was about $98 on July 4 compared with an average of $244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bloomberg

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2014, 02:30:09 PM »
Fitch: CPO Price to Rise Only Modestly Despite El Nino, Iraq

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)JAKARTA/SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, July 07 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings saysthat the global crude palm oil (CPO) price will increase only modestly despitethe likely onset of the El Nino weather pattern this year and recent militaryaction at Iraq. Fitch expects the narrowing price spread between CPO and soybeanoil and the lack of growth in demand for biodiesel in Indonesia to restrainupward trends in CPO prices. The El Nino weather pattern brings extreme heat and drought,which will negatively impact production volumes and could raise averageselling prices for CPO. Meanwhile, recent military action in Iraq and concernsabout disruptions to oil field operations in the country put upward pressure on crudeoil prices, although supply concerns have since receded. Given the highcorrelation between CPO and crude oil prices, this could drive up CPO prices. Climatologists estimate that an El Nino pattern may develop bySeptember, a little later than the initial estimate for July-August. BetweenJanuary and May 2014, average CPO prices increased by 5% from a year earlier,partly reflecting market anticipation of the El Nino pattern. Historically, asevere El Nino would result in a 10%-15% drop in CPO production volume, and a 30%-40%increase in average selling prices.However, the upward pressures would likely be countered by thenarrowing of the gap between the prices of soybean oil and CPO. Soybean oil is asubstitute for CPO and a good harvest in major producer the US, which isforecast to export 1.75bn pounds of soybean oil in 2014, has pushed the price ofsoybean oil down, shrinking the premium over CPO prices to an average of USD91/ton in January-May 2014 from USD 244/ton in 2013, according to data compiled byBloomberg. This has encouraged higher consumption of soybean oil at the expense ofCPO. For example, Indian soybean oil imports in May trebled from a year earlierwhile the country's imports of palm oil products fell by 17%, according toOil World, an industry data provider. In addition, Indonesia's demand for CPO for blending intobiodiesel has not increased so far in 2014 compared with 2013. Althoughregulations requiring the use of palm oil in biodiesel are positive for the Indonesian CPOindustry in the long term, the blending of CPO into biodiesel is hampered in theshort term by underdeveloped distribution infrastructure and the high cost ofCPO. As a result, higher CPO stocks are also weighing on selling prices. In Fitch's view, an average CPO price of about USD800/ton(benchmark Belawan price at end-May 2014: USD848/ton) would reflect supply anddemand fundamentals. Given the nature of oil palm plantations, a significant increasein supply over the next 24 months is unlikely. Similarly, a sharp rise indemand from the largest consumers, such as China, India, and Indonesia, is notanticipated. Contacts:Erlin SalimAssociate Director+62 21 2988 6811Nandini VijayaraghavanDirector+65 6796 7216 Vicky MelbourneSenior DirectorHead of Industrials South East Asia & Australasia Ratings+61 2 8256 0325Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234,Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com.

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2014, 02:39:51 PM »
Cpo price set to fall?
Can someone to give me a Loan and then leave me Alone?

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2014, 04:46:45 PM »
Cpo price set to fall?

The CPO lowest price on 26 Jul 2013 is 2137 . If the history is repeated and we may find the CPO bottom by end Jul 2014.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2014, 10:12:06 AM »
Palm edges up, investors eye smaller stockpiles

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Monday on hopes that stocks in the world's No.2 grower would fall for the first time in four months, although investor caution ahead of an official industry report trapped prices in a tight range.

A median forecast of planters, traders and analysts pegged Malaysia's June ending stocks at 1.8 million tonnes, a 2.2-percent drop from a month ago, which would mark the first fall in inventories since March.

The official report on Malaysia's end-June palm stocks, production and exports will be released by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Thursday.

"The market is looking for a new lead, that's why the trading range is quite tight," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "They (investors) are waiting for more news."

Another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said prices could weaken and test 2,390 ringgit, but would likely rebound.

"Prices are in consolidation mode and are currently testing support at 2,390-2,400 ringgit," the second trader said. "Talk of tight palm supplies for July and projections for a bullish MPOB may slow the fall."

By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.1 percent to 2,404 ringgit ($755) per tonne, with prices stuck between 2,397-2,418 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at 14,231 lots of 25 tonnes, just above the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to test its July 1 trough of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will lead to a further loss towards the June 12 low of 2,362 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Global palm prices will only increase "modestly" despite the possible onset of an El Nino weather pattern and the recent military violence in Iraq, said Fitch Ratings, as palm's narrowing spread to rival soyoil and sluggish biodiesel uptake by Indonesia weighs.

"In Fitch's view, an average CPO price of about $800 per tonne would reflect supply and demand fundamentals," the ratings agency said in a statement, adding that the tropical oil's supply is unlikely to record a significant increase over the next two years.

In other markets, Brent crude hit a more than three-week low near $111 a barrel on Monday amid expectations of a rise in supplies as Libya gears up to resume oil exports from two ports that have been closed for nearly a year.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 0.7 percent in early Asian trade. Trading in the US soyoil contract closed for a public holiday on Friday.


Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2014, 10:18:08 AM »
Palm oil to test resistance, slip

July 7, 2014:   Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended marginally higher on Monday ahead of the official MPOB report due on Thursday. Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, says that the global crude palm oil price will increase only modestly despite the likely onset of the El Nino weather pattern this year and current unrest in Iraq. Fitch expects the narrowing price spread between palm oil and soyabean oil and the lack of growth in demand for biodiesel in Indonesia to weigh on edible oil prices.

CPO active month September futures are moving perfectly in line with our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, supports are seen at MYR 2,410-20/tonne levels and we expect prices to hold in the zone for a revival in the uptrend again. Only a move below 2,375 could hint at weakness again, possibly targeting 2,250 on the downside. However, expect prices to find support above 2,400 levels and then gradually break above key resistance at MYR 2,512 targeting 2,700 levels on the upside. The trend looks still weak in the bigger picture but minor gains are likely. Prices could move up towards MYR 2,445-55/tonne levels or even higher to MYR 2,485 while 2,375 holds in the coming week.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised. Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target at 2,350 levels now.

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. It is also indicating a positive divergence, where prices are making lower lows not confirmed by lower lows in the indicator. The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearish reversal. Only a crossover again above the zero line could at resumption in the bullish trend.Therefore, look for palm oil futures to move higher initially towards resistances and then fall again.

Supports are at MYR 2,400, 2,375 and 2,300. Resistances are at MYR 2,445, 2,485 and 2,515.

(The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research and also in the advisory panel of Commodity exchanges and corporate houses. The views expressed in this column are his own. This analysis is based on the historical price movements and there is risk of loss in trading)

(This article was published on July 7, 2014)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2014, 09:14:12 AM »
Palm oil falls as ringgit hits 7 month high

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday as buying interest dried up after the ringgit currency surged to a more than seven-month high, while caution ahead of a key stocks report kept investors on the sidelines.

The Malaysian ringgit led gains among emerging Asian currencies and rose as much as 0.4 percent to 3.1760 per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 20, on expectations of a policy rate hike on Thursday.

"The market is down on the back of the ringgit strengthening to 3.17," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

A stronger local currency makes the ringgit-denominated feedstock more expensive for overseas investors and refiners.

Market participants are waiting for an official report on Malaysia's end-June palm stocks, output and exports that will be released by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Thursday to gauge demand for the tropical oil.

"There are no new leads in the market, that's the problem. We're looking at a range of 2,400-2,420 ringgit today," the Kuala Lumpur-based trader added.

By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.4 percent to 2,405 ringgit ($757) per tonne. Prices were stuck in a tight range between 2,400 and 2,416 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at only 9,746 lots of 25 tonnes, compared to the usual 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil looks neutral in a range of 2,385-2,433 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

"A rise above 2,433 ringgit will confirm the extension towards 2,448 ringgit, the 50 percent level, while a fall below 2,385 ringgit will signal the extension of the downtrend towards 2,362 ringgit, the June 12 low," Tao said.

A Reuters survey of planters, traders and analysts forecast Malaysia's June ending stocks would drop 2.2 percent to 1.8 million tonnes, its first fall since March, and for production to ease 0.4 percent to 1.65 million tonnes.

Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second-largest grower, was initially slated to climb higher in June, but hot and dry weather likely curbed yields, planters said.

In other markets, Brent crude slipped below $110 a barrel on Tuesday, trading close to its lowest in nearly a month, as fears of supply disruption in Iraq eased and prospects for a rise in Libyan exports improved.

In other competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract climbed 0.3 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.2 percent.



Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2014, 09:22:07 AM »
VEGOILS-Market factors to watch 9 July

The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and Related Stories

VEGOILS-Market factors to watch June 24 Reuters VEGOILS-Palm touches near one-month high as export data eyed Reuters VEGOILS-Palm edges up, investors eye smaller stockpiles Reuters VEGOILS-Palm little changed, hovers near 1-month high on better exports, firm crude Reuters VEGOILS-Palm slips on weaker soy, records biggest quarterly drop since Sept 2012 Reuters other vegetable oil markets.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest level in nearly one month on Tuesday as buying interest dried up after the ringgit surged to a more than seven-month high, while caution ahead of a key stocks report kept some investors
away from risky bets.

* U.S. soybean futures fell for the seventh straight session on Tuesday, and corn slid lower for a sixth day as favorable weather around the Midwest buoyed forecasts of record crops this autumn.

* Brent crude slid more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, its seventh straight decline, hitting a one-month low below $109 as Libyan oil exports looked likely to rise and fears eased of supply disruption in Iraq.

MARKET NEWS

* The dollar eased and global equity markets fell on Tuesday as investors stepped back ahead of second-quarter earnings reports and after successive record highs last week for several major stock indices.

RELATED

> Grain Exporters To Feel More Price Pain As Shipping Rates Set To Rise

> Argentina 2013/14 Soy Crop Seen At 55.7 Mln Tonnes - Rosario

> Possible Argentina Debt Default Seen Reducing Corn Output

DATA/EVENTS

> Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance to release Malaysia's July 1-10 palm oil export data on 10 July .

> Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to release data on Malaysia's end-June palm oil stocks, exports and production on 10 July .

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2014, 09:28:18 AM »
Palm Oil Hits Hurdles in Southeast Asia

Indonesia and Malaysia are lagging behind ambitious targets set by their governments to use more palm-based biodiesel at home, helping send prices of palm oil tumbling 18% since March.

The two Southeast Asian countries account for about 85% of world palm oil output, used in items from toothpaste to biscuits. Both are pressing ahead though to use more palm oil in biodiesel and reduce the burden of maintaining subsidies on transport fuels gasoline and diesel.

But Indonesia has been reporting hurdles in meeting the biodiesel targets since early this year due to a lack of blending facilities, as well as challenges in distributing the fuel to thousands of islands that make up the country. Malaysia too has fallen short of its plan to implement a target of using 5% in biodiesel blend by July 1 because of delays to blending facilities in the east of the country, said Malaysia’s deputy secretary general of commodities, M. Nagarajan.

Malaysia says it plans to implement a 7% blend nationwide remain are on track for Jan. 1 next year.

Overly-pessimistic forecasts about a spell of dry weather early this year would cut the crop in Indonesia and Malaysia have also not happened, driving the price lower as more supply has come on board.

With Indonesia, there has also been producer and blender disagreements over pricing, and the absence of strong political will to remove or cut fuel subsidies, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a report this month. Meanwhile, East Malaysia is also facing distribution challenges, it said.

Analysts including Dorab Mistry of Godrej International Ltd. say this calls into question the two governments commitment to biodiesel. Mr. Mistry says Indonesia’s consumption of palm-based biodiesel for the first five months of this year is similar to that in the same period last year, pointing to overall flat consumption volumes in this marketing year.

Despite earlier proclaiming Indonesia and Malaysia’s biodiesel mandates an industry “game changer” for palm oil, Mr. Mistry is now more cautious on his earlier bullishness on biofuel demand.

“Palm has become far too dependent on biodiesel demand and that is an unreliable, opportunistic and sporadic market. Palm must fight for market share of edible food demand,” Mr. Mistry said.

Indonesia and Malaysia both lagging on their biodiesel drive will “likely dampen demand moving forth”, said Phillip Futures Malaysia’s derivatives specialist David Ng.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #31 on: July 09, 2014, 11:51:17 PM »
Palm touches 9-month low as weak soy, firm ringgit drags

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged down on Wednesday to touch their lowest since October as losses in soyoil markets overseas and a firm ringgit dragged, although prospects of smaller supplies of the vegetable oil provided support.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange touched 2,361 ringgit in late trade, its lowest since Oct. 14, before settling at 2,375 ringgit ($749) per tonne at close on Wednesday, a 0.4 percent drop.

Total traded volume stood at 49,488 lots of 25 tonnes, above the usual 35,000 lots.

"Falling soybean oil prices should let the day bears check the nearest low of 2,362 ringgit," said a trader with a local commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.

The US soyoil contract fell 0.6 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 1.6 percent.

Palm typically tracks soyoil, a food and fuel substitute. Weaker soyoil prices could shift demand away from palm.

A firm ringgit also stemmed buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The Malaysian unit was trading at 3.1700 per dollar, after strengthening to a more-than-7-month high on Tuesday.

"The soybean oil markets are down, the ringgit is still very strong... Malaysian palm oil continues to be under pressure," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm is expected to fall to 2,358 ringgit per tonne, driven by a wave 3, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. This is the third wave of a five-wave cycle that developed from the June 25 high of 2,511 ringgit.

Market participants are pinning hopes for an official industry report to show that output and stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm grower, fell in June. A Reuters survey forecast Malaysia's June-end stocks to drop to 1.8 million tonnes.

"The report tomorrow should be friendly and supportive. That's why a lot of people don't want to sell down at this level, until the MPOB report is out," the second trader added.

Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, will release its monthly data on stocks, output and exports on Thursday.

Some analysts predict crude palm oil production in Malaysia and parts of Indonesia will further ease in July on dry weather and shorter working hours due to a festival, potentially supporting prices that have already lost 11 percent this year.

"July production may be further impacted by lower productivity during the fasting month, which we believe could directly result in an interruption of the inventory upcycle," RHB Research Institute said in a note on Wednesday.

"Should demand be strong enough, palm oil stockpiles could start to decline from the current level."

In other markets, Brent crude oil traded at a one-month low under $109 a barrel on Wednesday after a Libyan oilfield restarted and supply worries faded, prompting traders to reduce long positions.



Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2014, 11:46:03 AM »
MALAYSIA JULY 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 445,968 (+14.1%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2014, 01:24:12 PM »
MPOB Says Malaysia June Palm Oil Stocks 1.66m Tons; Est. 1

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia,  world’s second-largest producer, fell 10% to 1.66m metric tons  in June from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
• Output declined 5.3% to 1.57m tons, while exports climbed 5.3% to 1.48m tons• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.86m tons, production at 1.66m tons and shipments at 1.45m tons
BN 07/10 04:32 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS RISE 5.3% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.48M TONS; EST. 1.45M TONS BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT FALLS 5.3% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.57M TONS; EST. 1.66M BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS FALL 10% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS 1.66M TONS; EST. 1.86M

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #34 on: July 11, 2014, 02:04:50 PM »
VEGOILS-Palm bounces off 9-mth low as stocks tighten, exports pick up

* Prices fall to 2,349 rgt in early trade, lowest since

October 2013

* Malaysia's July 1-10 palm oil exports up 14.1-18.7 pct m/m

- cargo surveyors

* Palm oil to fall to 2,340 ringgit -technicals

* Malaysia's end-June palm stocks fall to 1-year low of 1.66

mln T -MPOB

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Thursday, bouncing off a nine-month low hit in early trades, after an industry report showed that stocks in the No.2 producer sank to a one-year low, signalling tighter supplies ahead.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that palm stocks fell a bigger-than-expected 10 percent to 1.66 million tonnes at end-June, their lowest since June 2013, as dry weather curbed yields of the tropical oil.

The drop in stocks, which was the first in four months, missed market estimates that had forecast inventories to fall to 1.80 million tonnes.

"The end-stocks are very tight and the fundamentals for palm are very strong. Production is dipping -- I don't see any improvement for July," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia, who expects July end-stocks to fall below 1.65 million tonnes.

"It's about time the market recovers. With the current fundamentals, we should see better prices going forward."

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.6 percent to settle at 2,387 ringgit ($751) per tonne, recovering from a low of 2,349 ringgit -- a level last touched on Oct. 8.

Total traded volume stood at 53,867 lots of 25 tonnes, above the usual 35,000 lots.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm is expected to fall to 2,340 ringgit per tonne, as it has broken below a support at

2,358 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

An uptick in export demand provided some support to prices that have fallen 10 percent so far this year.

Data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showedthat exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose

14.1 percent from the same period a month ago, thanks to

stronger demand from the world's top edible oil consumers Chinaand India.


Another cargo surveyor showed exports for the same period
rose 18.7 percent.

Palm oil, used as cooking oil and to make a range of

foodstuffs from instant noodles to margarines, as well as an
additive in biodiesel, typically tracks soyoil which is a common

food and fuel substitute.


The U.S. soyoil contract rose 0.6 percent in late

Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract

on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.2 percent.

In other markets, oil fell to around $108 a barrel on

Thursday, extending its longest losing streak in four years,

pressured by weak gasoline demand in the United States and the

prospect of rising supply from Libya.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2014, 07:54:58 PM »
El Nino: A wild card for planters (1)

Weather, as one of the more important aspects for palm oil planters to worry about for their production during the year, is rapidly changing.

A sudden change in weather condition – especially dry and hot weather for a extended period – can negatively affect production and output of palm oil.

As one of the plantation experts Dorab Mistry said, the weather is expected to shape the production and price of the crude palm oil (CPO) this year.

“In the event that El Nino develops, I believe CPO futures will cling to RM3,000 beyond June.

“(Palm oil) production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be staring (at) RM3,500.

“However if rains come as normal and the high cycle kicks in from July onwards, prices can trade in a range between RM2,900 and RM2,600 from July until October.

“Palm oil production is under-performing and stocks are tight,” he said during a palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur earlier this year.

At the same time, Mistry highlighted some new developments within the oil palm industry which could steer the palm oil market into a new dynamic cycle.

“There is going to be a big expansion of bio diesel capacity in Indonesia in the near future.

“This capacity will require bio diesel producers to lock in palm oil prices at least one year in advance. Almost all of them will be plantation linked.

“Hence, the availability of freely tradable palm oil will become somewhat restricted. It will also require much larger stocks to be maintained.

“Therefore, palm oil stocks will need to be much larger before they begin to exert any pressure on prices.

“For these reasons, I believe the Indonesian mandate is truly a ‘Game Changer’ and will keep palm oil prices relatively high for a long time,” Mistry observed.

On the contrary, he believed there is a small likelihood of production surpassing expectation if rainfall is better than normal.

“If prices of Brent (crude oil) fall and production of world oilseeds is also as expected, palm oil prices can fall below RM2,400 but that possibility is no more than 30 per cent,” he pointed out.

While Mistry, a director of India-based Godrej International Ltd, has his own view on the palm oil market, local analysts hinted at a similar scenario, citing  change in weather conditions and palm oil inventory level being the prime aspects affecting the outlook of the plantation industry.

M&A Securities Sdn Bhd (M&A Securities) in a report dated June 26 entitled ‘Betting on El-Nino for palm oil price up-cycle’ said weather plays an important role in the supply equation of production and yield, and particularly one of the key catalysts of CPO price movement.

The hot and dry weather of late is expected to persist for another few months as predicted by the Malaysian Meteorlogical Department. The situation has cause caustic reaction as people wonder whether El-Nino spell had started or otherwise.

Citing the Department of Meteorlogical Malaysia, M&A Securities said the current situations are due to the Southwest Monsoon (dry season for Malaysia) that has started in May and is expected to persist until September.

Surveys by international weather forecasters still indicated that there is a 70 per cent likelihood of the El Nino happening in 2014.

 

Potential effect of El Nino on palm oil production

Plantation experts have estimated that El-Nino could potentially reduce production up to 30 per cent during normal time depending on severity.

As a result of lower production and lesser yield, the situation could cause the supply of  palm oil inventory to be tight.

Already languishing from lower exports and stocks level compared with last year, industry players are anticipating the dry weather to be a potential factor that could exert pressure on CPO price to trade higher.

Ling Ah Hong, a director of Malaysian plantation consultancy and investment company Ganling Sdn Bhd who shared his views during a palm oil conference, said El Nino is normally followed by a surge in palm oil prices due to disruption of supply.

He noted that historically, when El Nino develops, palm oil prices increase.

Outlining two scenarios, he explained a moderate El Nino will reduce global supply growth in 2015 to less than 0.5 million tonnes while a severe EL Nino will result in a contraction of 0.6 million tonnes, subsequently leading to severe supply tightness in the world.

Another factor which Ling strongly believed could cause CPO price to trend higher in the future, is the tightening supply of palm oil inventory.

Giving an outlook for CPO price, he indicated that the price could be moving higher next year.

“We expect palm oil prices to trend higher in 2014 and 2015. (The) average price for 2014 is expected to increase by about 14 per cent to RM2,700 per tonne against RM2,360 per tonne in 2013.

“This will be supported by steady demand from food and additional demand of two million tonnes from Indonesia domestic biodiesel usage.

“Looming palm oil supply tightness due to past and emerging dry weather will be a key catalyst to upward price movement in 2015.

“Plantation companies in Indonesia and Malaysia should generally fare better this year (compared with 2013),” he observed.

Ling also observed that Sabah and Sarawak planters should witness a recovery in production this year as both geographical locations have expereinced no prolonged rainfall deficit  in 2012 and 2013.

Whether rain or dry season is coming, analysts are cautious on the sector’s prospect at present.

Sector outlook and analysts top pick

Despite the possible occurance of the El-Nino, analysts have yet to call the shot of a “buy call” on the plantation sector.

Most of them are forecasting the sector to perform largely in line with expectations with an upward bias.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) which released the palm oil statistics for June on July 10 revealed that the palm oil inventory fell to one-year low.

The research arm of JF Apex Securities Bhd (JF Apex Research) in a report said despite going into high production season, CPO production was lower in June, down 5.26 per cent on monthly basis after growing 6.5 per cent in May.

It observed that the drop of CPO production in June was steeper than market expectations of 0.4 per cent decline as surveyed by a news agency.

JF Apex Research analyst Jessica Low said, “We reckon that the steep fall of palm oil inventory in June to one-year low is a positive surprise to the plantation sector and would support CPO prices.

“The CPO production was under pressure in June as a result of laggard effect of drought in January.

“Looking ahead, we expect CPO production in July to ease further before resuming its uptrend in August, as harvesting days will be fewer in July due to the Hari Raya festival.



“Meanwhile, spot CPO prices are moving around RM2,430 per metric tonne (MT), its nine-month low level.

“We feel that the current CPO price had factored in the adverse effect and expect limited downside for CPO prices,” she said.

For exposure to the plantation sector, most analysts believe that TSH Resources Bhd (TSH) is one of the best performing plantation companies throughout Malaysia.

They believed earnings of TSH is poised to grow healthily over the next few years supported by higher FFB production and better FFB yield on matured palm oil plantation.

The research arm of Public Investment Bank Bhd (Public Invest Research) in a report dated March 20 said TSH’s young Indonesian estates amidst the bullish CPO price movements will see the company become of the biggest plantation gainers this year.

The research firm even highlighted that the plantation company’s young  age profile of its oil palm plantation is the growth driver.

Public Invest Research said close to 78 per cent of TSH’s total planted are are below seven years old, with an average age of about six to seven years old.

“We believe the company will be able to maintain its double-digit fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production growth in the next couple of years, albeit at a slower pace driven by its young (tree) age profile.

“In addition, there is unplanted landbank of 23,815 hectares and 53,430 hectares in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively, pointing that there will be continuous expansion in the company for the next 10 to 15 years.

“In the next five to 10 years, we believe the company will rank on par with big capitalisation plantation companies once it has achieved sizeable mature area,” the research firm said.

In the meantime, Public Invest Research is expecting the company to register strong earnings growth this year.

The research firm had forecasted a strong jump for TSH group’s earnings this year supported by increases in palm oil production and CPO prices which will highly benefit the company in being a pure upstream plantation player.

Nonetheless, its forecasts are based on the assumption of 16 per cent rise in FFB production and full-year average CPO price of RM2,750 per metric ton, which is significantly stronger than the average CPO price of RM2,251 per MT recorded last year.

Following a visit to TSH’s plantation estate in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan earlier, PublicInvest Research said the company’s plantation estate, PT Sarana Prima Multi Niaga Estate in Central Kalimantan boasted a total gross area of 7,198 hectares.

The research firm said the plantation estate, equipped with a 45 metric tonne per hour mill is producing FFB for TSH and is also one of the best performing mills for the company with an average oil extraction rate (OER) of 24.6 per cent for the last three years.

Hence, given higher FFB production for TSH and its young age profile of the company’s oil palm plantation, Public Invest Research is optimistic that the plantation company earnings will be sustained in the near future.

At the same time, the research arm of Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) and RHB Reseach Institute Sdn Bhd are both upbeat about the company’s financial performance for financial year 2014 (FY14).

Obviously, analysts are sounding the drum after TSH’s financial results for the first quarter of 2014 (1Q14) has largely beaten their expectations.

For 1Q14, TSH’s net profit jumped 162 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM52.17 million compared with RM19.93 million recorded in 1Q13.

RHB Research said the better than expected financial results was attributed to higher average CPO price realised and double-digit production growth.

Going forward, the research firm expects TSH’s new matured oil palm plantation in Kalimantan and improving FFB yield to lift its earnings for  upcoming quarters.

The research arm of MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) also believed that the company’s long term growth remains strong supported by sizeable unplanted plantation landbank and new planting programme.

MIDF Research in a report dated May 23 said, “Given substantial portion of immature and young trees, we are optimistic on TSH long-term earnings prospect.

“TSH high proportion of immature and young trees will be the catalyst to support TSH’s earnings in the long-term.

“Furthermore, as at December 2013, about 66 per cent of its total plantation landbank is still unplanted.

“With new planting programme of approximately 3,000 hectares per year, we believe the growth story of TSH will remain intact,” the research firm noted.

As for Sarawak planters, most of them do not foresee the potential occurance of the El Nino to have an adverse impact on their production.

 

SARAWAKIAN PLANTERS OUTLOOK



Ta Ann

Ta Ann Holdings Bhd (Ta Ann) being one of the large capitalisation company listed on Bursa Malaysia does not foresee any adverse impact related to El Nino phenomenon as it implements good water management system to conserve water in its peat plantations.

Ta Ann group managing director was quoted as saying,”The potential occurance of the El Nino dry weather phenomenon will not have much impact on the oil palm sector in Sarawak.

“This is because more than 40 per cent of the state’s oil palm plantations are in peat soil areas.

“The water management in peat soil areas will continue to provide water for the palms.

“El Nino will have greater impact on those planted in mineral soil,” he said.

As for Ta Ann, the timber cum plantation company expects its FFB production for 2014 to be around 12 per cent to 14 per cent higher compared to last year as more plantation matures.

Looking ahead, the company expects to carry out new planting of around 2,000 hectares this year which mainly are expansion of its existing plantation estates.

When asked on the company’s plans to acquire more landbank in the near future, Ta Ann revealed plans to develop more native customary rights (NCR) lands jointly with native landowners which will bring many socio-economic benefits.

The company is still in discussions with relevant parties for more land acquisitions to further expand the company’s plantation division.

Additionally, Ta Ann is optimistic on the price of CPO in 2014, expecting comparatively stronger financial performance this year on the back of the anticipated higher FFB production and brighter price outlook for palm oil and timber.

Its young age tree profile with an average of seven years will contribute sustainable growth to the company’s earnings in the future.

The group’s oil palm estates are located in several districts throughout Sarawak, for instance in Sibu, Daro, Igan, Bintulu and Song.

 

Sarawak Oil Palms

Moving on to another plantation player, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd (SOP) also expects the company’s FFB production to post double digit growth despite the probability of El Nino.

SOP said,”The FFB production for 2014 is expected to be 1.1 million MT, representing growth of 17.7 per cent against 2013 FFB production.

“The key factor for growth is the shift of palm age profile to more productive age profile despite current dry weather,” the company said.

SOP disclosed that as at Dec 2013, 50.9 per cent of the company’s palm age profile is young from four to 10 years old, 26.8 per cent has achieved prime age between 11 to 20 years, 12.7 per cent is immature and just about 9.6 per cent is 21 years and above.

Moving forward, the company said there will be some replanting of less than 500 hectares carried out at its plantation estates located along Lambir and Suai areas in Miri.

Majority of its plantation estates are located within Miri and Bintulu divisions and its estates located at Niah area has posted the higher yield per hectare for 2013.

As part of the group’s expansion plan, SOP recently announced an acquisition of two plantation companies with 9,600 planted hectares located at Sebauh, Bintulu.

The acquisition is currently pending the fulfillments of certain conditions.

As for CPO prices, the company expects it to move in the range of RM2,400 to RM2,500 per MT this year.

On SOP’s 2014 financial performance, the planter believed it should perform better than last year with improved FFB production and higher average CPO price realised this year as compared to 2013.

 

Rinbunan Sawit

Likewise, another plantation company Rimbunan Sawit Bhd (Rimbunan Sawit) concurred with Ta Ann and SOP that if the El Nino does happen, its production will not be substantially affected.

In an e-mail interview, Rimbunan Sawit managing director Tiong Chiong Ong expects its our overall figure to go up slightly despite an estimated drop of 10 to 20 per cent by (the potential occurance of)  El Nino effect because of increasing matured area and more palms reaching prime production age.

“Currently, the age profile of our oil palm plantation is mostly in the range of seven to 15 years.

“Out of a total of 54,670 hectares, 16,290 hectares or 30 per cent is in the range of seven to 15 years, 13,270 hectares or 24 per cent is more than 15 years, 12,600 hectares or 23 per cent is below 3 years old, 7,310 hectares or 13 per cent is between four to seven years old and 5,200 hectares or 10 per cent is in the range of three to four years old,” he said.

Whilst Rimbunan Sawit does not plan to acquire more plantation landbank in the near future, the plantation company is focusing on planting some 2,500 hectares of plantation landbank this year mostly at its estates in Kuching and Miri region.

The company revealed that its plantation landbank is located at Sibu, Kuching and Miri noting that its wholly-owned subsidiary Nescaya Palma Sdn Bhd which plantation estate is located close to Sibu has the highest yield at 18 MT per hectare in 2013.

On the CPO price outlook, the company opined that it will move in the range of RM2,300 to RM2,500 per MT this year.

As for Rimbunan Sawit’s financial performance for FY14, the company is expecting a marginal increase in overall results with average CPO price realised at about RM2,400 per MT.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2014, 07:56:00 PM »
El Nino: A wild card for planters continue from previous page

ANALYSTS VIEW ON SARAWAK PLANTERS

The research arm of Affin Investment Bank Bhd (Affin Research) in its latest report dated July 8 said Ta Ann’s palm oil division remains a key earnings contributor to the group, at 70 per cent of the group’s total profit before tax for financial year estimate of 2014 to 2016.

The research firm observed that the higher earnings should be supported by increasing maturity of its plantation estates and rising FFB and CPO production as well as yield.

Affin Research said, “We forecast Ta Ann’s matured plantation area of 27,958 hectares as at December 2013 to increase to 30,911 hectares in FY14 and 35,345 hectares in FY15.

“Based on this, we expect FFB and CPO production to continue increasing given Ta Ann’s young weighted average age profile of trees, approximately six to seven years, along with anticipation of higher FFB yield from 18.9 per cent in 2013 to 20 per cent in FY14.

“As at end of May, Ta Ann’s FFB and CPO production increased by 14.9 per cent y-o-y and 55.5 per cent y-o-y to 197,307 MT and 43,592 MT respectively.

RHB Research in a report on May 12 said SOP’s plantation yield is expected to start climbing in 2015 or latest by 2016 after declining in the past five years due to new plantation reaching maturity.

The research firm observed the slowdown for SOP’s newly mature plantation area this year onwards will result in its FFB yield eventually rising.

As for SOP’s acquisition of two companies earlier, RHB Research estimated that the deal is expected to be completed in September and is projected to contribute about 100,000 tonnes of FFB per year from next year onwards.

The research firm noted that SOP had earlier proposed to acquire 60 per cent stake in two companies namely DD Pelita Sebungan Plantation Sdn Bhd and Mutiara Pelita Genaan Plantation Sdn Bhd for RM134.9 million to be funded through a combination of cash and shares.

RHB Research cited the two companies have collectively planted area of 9,660 hectares and the acquisition has translated into a bargain of RM23,275 per hectare, considering the soil is mineral soil.

The research firm further observed that the acquired asset also has some 5,000 hectares of new planting to be done.

Over the long term, RHB Research said SOP is targeting to reach 100,000 hectares of planted area.

The research arm of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank Research) said SOP’s FFB production are highly yielded towards the second half of the year.

Maybank Research observed that over the past four years, approximately 58 per cent of SOP yearly FFB output was recorded in the second half of the year.

It noted that typically, the first quarter is the plantation company’s lowest quarter in terms of FFB output and the production is forecasted to peak in the third quarter of a year.

Over the medium term, Maybank Research believed that the prospect of SOP remains bright supported by the company’s three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of FFB output estimated at 12 per cent for 2013 to 2016 and the unlocking of the plantation company’s oil palm estates value near Miri through property development over the next three to five years.

Offline uvirra

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #37 on: July 14, 2014, 10:52:56 AM »
Thank you, Vincent88. Really appreciate your news sharing.  :thumbsup:

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #38 on: July 14, 2014, 11:17:33 PM »
Thank you, Vincent88. Really appreciate your news sharing.  :thumbsup:

Thanks. Sometimes will delay a bit due to busy.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #39 on: July 14, 2014, 11:18:23 PM »
Crude Palm Oil to weaken on higher production, lower Crude Oil prices



Kotak Commdoity Services Ltd (Kotak Commodities) said in a CPO quarterly report that prices rose 11.22% from January to May on expectations that dry weather will dent output in Indonesia and Malaysia.


14 Jul 2014

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): After witnessing a volatile market in January- May, 2014 when prices touched a high of Rs 612 per 10 kg, Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices may remain moderate to weak in June to September on higher production in Indonesia and Malysia apart from lower crude oil prices. Currently the market is well supplied and with lower sof oil price, demand for palm oil will decline.

Kotak Commodity Services Ltd (Kotak Commodities) said in a CPO quarterly report that prices rose 11.22% from January to May on expectations that dry weather will dent output in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Lower exports since Feb till May led to higher inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia’s, higher inventory led to a sharp correction in price. Bio-Diesel demand which was supposed to absorb the incremental supply was also not witnessed, as Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina failed to meet their Bio-diesel commitments

Looking ahead, Kotak Commodities said thatt he demand of Palm oil will only pick up on price rationing, as lower price will lead to demand revival. With higher Soy oil and Sunflower production estimates the outlook for Palm oil looks bleak.

"We expect the BMD Palm oil futures to decline till MYR 2250-2200 in the quarter July – September 2014. On the higher side price can bounce till MYR 2450-2500. In Indian market, price could trade in the range of 550-450 in next quarter. Bias for the quarter will be downwards. We recommend selling September 2014 contract at 530 and on rallies towards 550 with a target of Rs 490-460. Stops could be placed at 565," Kotak Commodities said.

Global scenario
Indonesia and Malaysia together produces around 80% of world palm oil. Indonesia is estimated to produce 31 MMT of CPO compared to 28.5MMT in 2012-13, a rise of 8.77%. While Malaysia’s Palm oil production is only marginally higher (0.41%) in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13 at 19.40 MMT. Indonesia has witnessed an immense rise of 40% in its production since 2009-10. Higher production of Palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia was attributed to higher fresh fruit bunch yield and additional mature areas. As per the latest USDA report, total palm oil production is expected to gain by 5.39% in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13. Also it is estimated that 2013-14 will witness all time high palm oil production. With all time high production, the market is expected to be well supplied.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2014, 09:53:11 AM »
Palm oil sinks to nine-month low on falling demand

In Malaysia, palm oil prices fell to a nine-month low on Friday of just under $747 per metric ton, the biggest drop in six weeks, following soy oil lower that then triggering liquidation of long positions. Prices were down 2.3% on the week and down 1.7% on the day. Indonesia’s failure to boost biodiesel consumption mixed with expectations of a bumper US soy crop is keeping demand for palm oil low.

Offline steve_lee

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #41 on: July 15, 2014, 10:10:38 AM »
Palm oil price down, but why palm oil stocks still strong leh????

Palm oil stocks must down also mah...

Online Ļaughing Ģor

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #42 on: July 15, 2014, 02:38:01 PM »
財經:大豆油庫存走高‧棕油價墜熊市
棕油價格挫跌至9個月新低,緊隨美國政府宣佈大豆油庫存紀錄走高,棕油正式邁入“熊市”! ‪#‎大豆油‬ ‪#‎熊市‬

Finance: ‧ soybean oil inventories higher, palm oil prices in bear market
 Palm-oil prices tumbled to a 9-month lows, followed by the United States Government announcement that soybean recorded high stock level, palm oil officially entered "bear market"!



Can someone to give me a Loan and then leave me Alone?

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #43 on: July 16, 2014, 03:21:21 PM »
MALAYSIA JULY 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS 653,675 (+11.4%) TONS: SGS

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #44 on: July 16, 2014, 10:16:03 PM »
India's June palm oil imports second biggest this year


NEW DELHI: India imported 5,98,247 tonnes of palm oil in June, the second biggest shipments so far this calendar year, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA).

However, total palm oil imports by the world's leading vegetable oil buyer during the month was much lower than 6,70,762 tonnes shipments in June 2013.

According to SEA data, palm oil imports had touched highest at 6,54,255 tonnes in May, while the shipments were second highest in June at 5,98,247 tonnes.

Palm oils make up 71 per cent of the country's total vegetable oil imports. India meets 60 per cent of its annual vegetable oil demand of 17-18 million tonnes via imports.

"The share of palm oils in total vegetable oil imports has narrowed down to 71 per cent from 80 per cent on rise in shipments of soft oils due to the price difference," SEA Executive Director B V Mehta told PTI.

The share of soft oils has risen to 29 per cent of total vegetable oil imports now. Import of soft oils comprising soybean oil and sunflower oils rose to 2,62,489 tonnes in June, from 2,40,329 tonnes in the year-ago month, he added.

Last month, crude palm oil (CPO) price was at USD 841 per tonne and crude sunflower oil rate at USD 936 per tonne.

Whereas in the same month last year, crude sunflower oil was ruling at as high as USD 1,208 per tonne and CPO at USD 832 per tonne, the SEA data showed.

The country's total vegetable oil imports declined 4 per cent to 8,83,679 tonnes in June this year, compared to 9,47,591 tonnes in the year-ago month, the SEA said.

India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia and small quantity of crude soft oils, including soyabean oil, from Latin America and sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #45 on: July 17, 2014, 08:39:31 AM »
VEGOILS-Palm rises as soy markets recover; weak ringgit supports

* Malaysia's July 1-15 palm oil exports up 11-14 pct m/m

-cargo surveyors

* Recovery in oversold soy markets helps rebound in palm

prices - trader

* Palm oil to retest support at 2,298 ringgit - technicals

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session's slide to an over 9-month low, as a recovery in comparative soy markets and a weaker ringgit provided some relief to the tropical oil.

The U.S. soyoil contract rose 0.3 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange gained 0.2 percent. Palm oil typically tracks soy markets, a common food and fuel substitute.

A weaker ringgit currency meanwhile stoked buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The Malaysian ringgit lost 0.2 percent to trade at 3.1880 per dollar late Wednesday as the greenback managed to hold firm.

"The recovery in soybean oil markets, which are oversold, is helping palm to rebound," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Another factor is that the ringgit has weakened compared to last Friday. That is giving additional support to palm," the trader added.

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.9 percent to 2,304 ringgit ($723) per tonne at Wednesday's close.

Prices in the previous session had dropped to a more-than-9-month low of 2,292 ringgit, dragged by prospects of

bigger competing edible oil supply as well as losses in crude oil markets.

Total traded volume on Wednesday stood at 49,375 lots of 25

tonnes, much higher than the usual 35,000 lots.


Technicals showed that Malaysian palm may retest support at

2,298 ringgit per tonne, as it could have completed a rebound

triggered by this level, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

However, Tao added that a break above 2,328 ringgit will

indicate the continuation of the rebound towards 2,346 ringgit.

An uptick in export data in the first half of the month also

raised optimism of firm global demand for the tropical oil.

Malaysia's shipments of palm oil products were 14.2 percent

higher between July 1-15 compared to the same period a month

ago, data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showed,

thanks to bigger purchases from China and Europe.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance

showed that exports for the same period rose 11.4 percent to

653,675 tonnes from 586,701 tonnes shipped a month ago.

In other markets, Brent crude prices edged up above $106.50

a barrel on Wednesday as data from China showed its economy grew

faster than expected in the second quarter and the country's

implied oil demand rose to its highest since the beginning of

last year.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1010 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2371 +26.00 2355 2380 805

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2324 +26.00 2305 2334 8989

MY PALM OIL OCT4 2304 +20.00 2288 2315 23282

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 5710 +24.00 5674 5742 469054

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 6488 +12.00 6452 6492 297090

CBOT SOY OIL DEC4 37.20 +0.09 36.97 37.31 5557

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 100.65 +0.69 100.07 100.79 16168

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.1870 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2047 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Sunil Nair)

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #46 on: July 17, 2014, 12:43:20 PM »
VEGOILS-Market factors to watch July 17

FUNDAMENTALS

* Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the

previous session's slide to an over-9-month low, as a recovery in comparative

soy markets and a weaker ringgit provided some relief to the tropical oil.

* U.S. corn and soybean futures rose on Wednesday in a light bounce after

setting multiyear lows a day earlier, but farmer selling and expectations of

near-record U.S. harvests limited gains.

* U.S. crude oil rose more than $1 on Wednesday, rebounding from recent steep

drops after government data showed the country's crude stockpiles fell sharply

last week.

MARKET NEWS

* Stock markets around the world rose on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones

industrial average ending at record levels as strong China growth data and

potential big deals in the United States boosted investor sentiment.

* Commodities sank on Tuesday, with a key sector gauge at five-month lows, after

crude oil prices were hit by higher Libyan output and weak global growth while

gold fell on a Federal Reserve report showing U.S. bond-buying will end by

October.

RELATED

> Russian ministry raises 2014 grain crop forecast by 3 pct

> Indonesia expects rice surplus of 4.2 mln tonnes in 2014 -govt

> Malaysia's Jul 1-15 palm oil exports rose 11.4 pct -SGS

> Malaysia's July 1-15 palm exports rise 14.2 pct -ITS

> Typhoon kills at least 20 in the Philippines, heads towards China

> More Argentine grains workers strike in pivotal export hub

> Dry weather in Russia triggers upgrades to grain crop forecasts

DATA/EVENTS

> Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance

to release Malaysia's July 1-20 palm oil export data on July 21.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0014 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2014, 10:38:53 AM »
Prices for Palm Oil Hit Nine-Month Lows


The global palm oil market is taking a beating from forecasts of record soybean and corn crops this year, as prices of the world's most widely-used vegetable oil have hit nine-month lows.

On Thursday, benchmark crude-palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia closed at 2,290 ringgit($718) per metric ton, down as much as 2.6% this week. At one point, they hit their lowest levels since October 4, as soybean and corn prices fell to multiyear lows amid expectations of a bumper crop.

As a result, soybean and corn-oil prices are also down, narrowing the price premiums these rival edible oils command over palm oil. Demand for palm oil has been hurt as a result.

Traditional vegetable oils like soybean oil and groundnut oil are preferred choices for consumers in India, China and other large importers.

Citi Futures specialist Sterling Smith noted Wednesday that the premium of soybean oil over palm oil has been reduced to just $89.56 per ton--far lower than the one-year average of $117.44, as well as the two-year average of $ 219.38.

Such concerns have eclipsed any improvement to market sentiment brought by stronger Malaysian palm-oil exports, which rose 11%-14% from July 1 to July 15 compared with a month earlier, reversing from an on-month decline of 7.8% to 8.3% in the same period in June. Meanwhile, the Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated that June exports rose 5% from May.

Indonesia and Malaysia are the world's two biggest producers of palm oil, together accounting for 85% of the market, which is used in a range of consumer products from toothpaste to biscuits.

The robust palm data came on the back of bullish figures last week showing lower Malaysian June palm-oil production and reduced end-month stockpiles. Still, benchmark Malaysian crude-palm oil futures closed 0.7% lower on Thursday.

The declining palm-oil prices contrast with the market rally during the first quarter, when prices jumped to an 18- month high in March amid very dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, which triggered fears of lower yields. Prices are now 21% lower from the highs hit in March.

Despite the market's lull, some analysts say changing weather conditions could move prices higher in the coming months.

Commerzbank said in a note Wednesday that the weather "can still cause problems" for the production of oilseeds in the U.S., while any additional imports to China could provide some upside to prices.

Palm oil production could also fall if the El Niño weather system sets in later this year.

Write to Huileng Tan at huileng.tan@wsj.com

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #48 on: July 20, 2014, 11:31:20 PM »
Palm Oil Reserves in Indonesia Drop to Two-Month Low as Output Falls

Palm oil stockpiles in Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, probably shrank to the lowest level in two months in June as production declined.

Inventories contracted 4.5 percent to 2.1 million tons from a month earlier, the median of estimates from five plantation and industry executives and analysts compiled by Bloomberg shows. That’s 13 percent less than a year earlier. Output fell 4.3 percent to 2.2 million tons, the survey showed. While exports were little changed at 1.7 million tons, they were the most for June since at least 2008, industry data show.

Palm oil, used in everything from candy to cooking oil and biofuel, entered a bear market this week on concern that record soybean stockpiles are adding to a global glut of cooking oils as demand slows from India, the world’s largest palm buyer. Declining prices may extend a third monthly drop in global food costs as measured by the United Nations.

“The trend in production is still low after hotspots disrupted harvesting,” said Eddy Martono, director of Mega Karya Nusa, a plantation company, referring to forest fires. “Domestic demand is increasing because of Ramadan. Output may start to climb in August or September because of the growth cycle,” he said by phone from Jakarta on July 10.

Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency said on June 25 that 386 hotspots were detected on Sumatra island, with 95 percent of them located in Riau province. Riau and North Sumatra provinces are the main palm-oil producing areas.

Rising supplies

While output declined in June, it expanded 2.4 percent to 12.9 million tons in the first half from a year earlier, according to calculations based on Bloomberg surveys. Production in Malaysia added 8 percent to 9.06 million tons in the same period, data from the country’s palm oil board showed.

Production in Indonesia may reach a record 30.5 million tons or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total an all-time high of 19.7 million tons to 19.9 million tons, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International. The two producers account for 86 percent of world supplies.

Mistry is less bullish on palm oil because supplies are increasing and demand is trailing estimates. Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit ($879) by December if an El Nino occurs from mid-August, Mistry said on June 26, cutting his March prediction for an increase to 3,500 ringgit.

Futures entered a bear market on July 14 and have lost 13 percent this year. The October contract added 0.2 percent to 2,311 ringgit a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Thursday. Palm’s discount to soybean oil shrank 70 percent in the past year to $89 a ton, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Ukraine sunflowers

High sunflower supplies from Ukraine will continue to curb demand for palm oil, Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, said on July 11. India will continue to buy sunflower oil because of a bumper crop in the Ukraine and lower prices, according to B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Palm imports by India declined for a second month in June as refiners bought more sunflower. Purchases of crude and refined palm oils slid 8.8 percent to 592,749 tons last month from a year earlier, the association said July 15.

Output in Indonesia may increase to 2.9 million tons in September and 3 million tons in October as trees reach their peak period for production, Bangun said by phone from Jakarta.
 The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, which doesn’t publish output and inventory data, may release June export figures next week. Production and reserve comparisons are based on surveys.

Offline vincent88

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Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #49 on: July 20, 2014, 11:32:44 PM »
Malaysia keeps August crude palm oil export tax at 5 pct


(Reuters) - Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm grower, has kept its crude palm oil export tax for August at 5 percent, a government circular showed on Friday, the same as a month ago.

The rate was lowered to 5.0 percent in July after being kept unchanged at 5.5 percent since April.

The Southeast Asian country calculated a reference price of 2,429.57 ringgit ($760) per tonne for August crude palm oil, effectively keeping the export duty at 5 percent. ($1 = 3.1800 Malaysian Ringgit) (Reporting by Anuradha Raghu; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)