CPO Latest Updated News

[Futurescoin]

hi all,

hope you guys makes tonnes of money lately in futures markets. what's you view today for both markets?

[vincent88]

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 8.4% from 1,338,354 tons in Sept. 1-25, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments drop 9.2% from 1,322,256 tons in Sept. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

Malaysia's Oct. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.83m Tons, MPOB Says

 BN 11/11 04:33 *MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.71M TONS; EST. 1.64M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL STOCKPILES 2.83M TONS; EST. 2.72M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA OCT. CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.04M TONS; EST. 1.93M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.71M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.83M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.04M TONS

By Anuradha Raghu

     (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, rose 7.3% to 2.83m metric tons in Oct.

from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.


  * Output rose 4% to 2.04m tons; exports rose 1.9% to 1.71m  tons

  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories

    at 2.72m tons, production at 1.93m tons and shipments at 1.64m tons Link

[vincent88]

Malaysia’s Nov. Palm Oil Exports 1,344,790 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 10.1% from 1,496,207 tons in
Oct., according to Intertek Testing Services.

Malaysia Nov. 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,351,478 Tons: Sgs

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 10.2% from 1,504,737 tons in
Oct. 1-31, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,272,150 (-5.9%) Tons: SGS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,272,150 Tons: SGS
2015-12-31 08:50:10.673 GMT


     (Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 5.9% from 1,351,478 tons in
 Nov. 1-30, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance.

[vincent88]

Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 486,846 (+4.3%) Tons: Intertek

Malaysia Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports (+5.6%) 489,468 Tons, SGS Reports

[vincent88]

Executive Summary
Malaysian Palm Oil  Supply & Demand Estimation FEBRUARY 2016
 
 % Change MoM
 
Production = 1.04 mil mt   -8.1%

Export = 1.06 mil mt  - 17%

Stockpile =  2.10 mil mt  -8.8%

*Official MPOB data will be released on 10th calendar day of every month, otherwise the next available business day.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.17m Tons, MPOB Says

(BFW) Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.17m Tons, MPOB Says

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.09M TONS; EST. 1.1M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL STOCKPILES 2.17M TONS; EST. 2.11M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.04M TONS; EST. 1.09M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.09M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.17M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.04M TONS

By Anuradha Raghu

     (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, fell 6.1% to 2.17m metric tons in Feb.

from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.


 

  * Output fell 7.7% to 1.04m tons; exports fell 15.2% to 1.09m tons

  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 2.11m tons, production at 1.09m tons and shipments at

    1.1m tons

[jollybee]

From last year my CPO future call, I did not reveal my long term TP when first round of El Nino striked Sabah.    This year with another round of El Nino going to send CPO to RM3000 per tonne, which is my original TP last year.

[vincent88]

From last year my CPO future call, I did not reveal my long term TP when first round of El Nino striked Sabah.    This year with another round of El Nino going to send CPO to RM3000 per tonne, which is my original TP last year.

El Nino can help me to earn some fast money.  Good to me. 

[vincent88]

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export Statistics:

                           2008   2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015   2016
Production
(million tons)       19.2   19.4    21.8   23.5  26.5   30.0    31.5   32.5   32.0¹
Export
(million tons)       15.1   17.1    17.1   17.6  18.2   22.4    21.7   26.4   27.0¹
Export
(in USD billion)     15.6   10.0    16.4   20.2  21.6   20.6   21.1   18.6   18.6¹

[vincent88]

Crude Palm Oil Industry Indonesia: CPO Production Down, Price Up?

Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

On a positive note, falling crude palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia (together accounting for nearly 90 percent of the world's total CPO output) will have a positive effect on benchmark palm oil futures. CPO futures in Kuala Lumpur are trading around 2,540 ringgit per ton this week after having climbed about 5 percent in February. Top CPO industry analyst Dorab Mistry sees prices climb further by about 20 percent to 3,000 per ton later this year, although he also emphasized that CPO demand from key markets (for example India and China) remains bleak.

The economy of China remains in slowdown-mode implying palm oil demand from the world's second-largest economy remains subdued. This implies that Indonesian CPO exports to China will, most likely, remain falling. India raised import taxes on CPO by 5 percent in September 2015 in an effort to protect and boost its domestic edible oils industry. Meanwhile, France and Russia are planning to implement higher palm oil import taxes. All in all, these developments put pressure on global palm oil demand.

Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to fall by 1.5 million tons to 18.4 million tons in 2016. Mistry expects palm oil output in Indonesia to drop by 1.2 million tons to 32.3 million tons this year. The current lower CPO output cycle is expected to persist until June 2016.

[vincent88]

UPDATE 1-Malaysia hikes April CPO export duty after 11 months of zero tax


* Malaysia sets April crude palm oil export tax at 5 percent

* Plantations to rush to export CPO before tax kicks in-trader

* Analyst sees exports tilting in favour of refined products (Adds quotes, background)

KUALA LUMPUR, March 15 Malaysia raised its tax on crude palm oil (CPO) exports to 5 percent for April, a government circular showed on Tuesday, ending a duty-free policy held since May 2015.

The higher tax could dent exports from the world's No.2 palm oil producer after Indonesia and drag benchmark Malaysian prices of the tropical oil, which hit one-month highs this week amid output worries due to a crop-damaging El Nino weather event.

"Big plantations will be rushing to take out CPO from the country. That should put some pressure on domestic figures and supplies and take exports higher before the tax kicks in," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.
 
After that exports are expected to come down, the trader added. "Producers will be most affected, big players who have been exporting a lot of CPO will be at a disadvantage."

A CPO export tax is, however, good news for local refiners as it will help keep more crude palm oil at home, weighing on domestic prices and improving downstream margins. There are no duties on Malaysian exports of refined palm oil products.

"This ... will change the export percentage between CPO and processed palm oil products," said Alan Lim, a plantations analyst at MIDF Research.
 
"We do expect some reduction in CPO exports but this will be compensated. If we compare this against Indonesia's $50 a tonne levy on CPO, Malaysia is still more competitive."

The reference price for Malaysia's export duty is set based on a formula taking the average of spot palm prices for a period of 30 days prior to when the tax is set.
 
The Southeast Asian nation calculated a reference price of 2,500.34 ringgit ($607.17) per tonne for April. A price above 2,250 ringgit incurs a tax, which starts from 4.5 percent and can reach a maximum 8.5 percent.

Palm oil futures are now at 2,594 ringgit, near a one-month top of 2,632 ringgit hit on Monday. Last week at an industry meet, experts said they see benchmark prices trading between 2,700-3,000 ringgit by June as dryness linked to El Nino hurts output growth.

But an ongoing slump in export demand, which is expected to worsen once the Malaysian tax kicks in, should help offset the impact of lower output, traders said.

"Exports will not look good, there has been no demand for months. Everyone is waiting for India to buy," said another trader from Kuala Lumpur. "Ramadan demand will come in April, but they will buy palm olein."

($1 = 4.1180 ringgit) (Reporting by Praveen Menon and Emily Chow; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

[vincent88]

Malaysia’s March 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 712,954 Tons: Intertek

By Anuradha Raghu
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 19.8% from 594,944 tons during Feb. 1-20, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

Palm oil climbs to new 2-year high on lower output, stronger exports

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 23-month high in trade on Monday, driven by lowered production forecasts and improving export demand.

The palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.2 percent to settle at 2,685 ringgit ($662) per tonne at the close of trade on Monday after touching a high of 2,698 ringgit, its strongest level in nearly two years.

Trade volumes were 42,649 lots of 25 tonnes each in a day.

"Production is still down and exports are getting higher. The bulls are not going to leave it," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

"Demand has started to come in from India as there's the colour festival and Good Friday coming up."

Global palm oil production is expected to drop by 2 million to 3 million tonnes this year due to the dry weather effects of an El Nino, according to leading industry analysts. The weather event brings scorching heat across Southeast Asia, reducing fruit yields and output.

Malaysian palm oil exports rose 20-23 percent in March 1-20 compared with the corresponding period a month ago, driven by Indian demand.

Palm oil faces a resistance at 2,695 ringgit per tonne, a break above which could lead to a gain to 2,729 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals Wang Tao.

In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.2 percent, while the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract lost 0.6 percent.

Crude palm kernel oil's offer price stood at 5241.47 ringgit per tonne on Monday evening, according to assessment prices by Thomson Reuters.

[vincent88]

CPO Prices Could Have Limited Upside Movement

24/03/2016 (Borneo Post) - The crude palm oil (CPO) price movement could have limited upside potential.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (AffinHwang Capital) in a report yesterday said the recovery of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields, a stronger ringgit and weak crude oil price could potentially capped the CPO price rise.

Besides, it outlined that export taxes and levies imposed by the Malaysian and Indonesian governments on CPO and processed palm oil as well as potential import duties should also cut into realised selling prices for plantation players.

“CPO prices are currently on the uptrend but there are a few moderating factors. FFB yields should recover when the El Niño events end,” it said in a note yesterday.

“Additionally, with plentiful global stock of soybeans, the soybean-oil-premium-to-CPO ratio is also an important determinant as low premiums tend to cap CPO prices rise due to substitutions.

“After the recent spike in CPO prices, the soybean oil premium remains low at around US$77 per metric tonne (MT) against the average of around US$105 per MT in 2015 and a high of US$386 per MT in 2012.”

It also noted that a weaker ringgit had contributed to firmer CPO prices before the on-going El Nino event became the dominant factor.

AffinHwang Capital opined that even though prospects of significantly lower production until around June 2016 are currently driving CPO prices higher, further strength in the ringgit could be a drag on future CPO price movement.

Apart from that, the research firm observed the Brent crude oil price has strengthened to around US$41 per barrel.

A significant retracement in crude oil prices, it said, will likely widen the already-large palm-oil premium.

Moreover, the research house believed any shortfall in the estimated usage of 2.0 million to 2.5 million MT of palm oil for biodiesel production in Indonesia should also weaken CPO prices.

Hence, the research firm reiterated its CPO average selling price (ASP) assumption of RM2,400 per MT for 2016 to 2017.

While CPO prices might average around RM2,600 per MT in the first half of 2016 (1H16), it expects CPO price to ease as extreme dry weather ends and production picks up in 2H16 and 2017.

Export taxes and levies as well as potential import duties should also cut into realised selling prices of planters, thereby limiting the pricing of CPO.

[vincent88]

Malaysia's March 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 886,749 Tons: Intertek

Shipments rose 12.6% from 787,693 tons during period Feb. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services

[vincent88]

Palm oil records first gain in 3 sessions on stronger export data

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, achieving their first gain in three sessions, on the back of cargo surveyor data showing higher exports.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.8 percent higher at 2,723 ringgit per tonne at the close of trade.

Earlier in the session, it hit a two year high of 2,726 ringgit which was previously reached on Tuesday. It has so far gained 1.4 percent this week.

Traded volumes were 38,170 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the daily average of 44,600 lots.

"The market is seeing a continuation of ups after the previous days' corrections," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.

"Seems like exports are holding up the market well." Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 rose 12.6 percent month-on-month, supported by higher exports to India and China, according to Intertek Testing Services (ITS).

Palm oil fell for two straight sessions through Thursday after hitting a two-year high on Tuesday on fears that El Nino would impact fresh fruit yields and lower production.

The El Nino weather phenomenon brings scorching weather across Southeast Asia, damaging crops and affecting output.

Crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's top palm producer, is seen declining in February due to droughts and forest fires, according to a Reuters survey.

Crude palm oil production may drop to 2.30 million tonnes in February, according to the survey's median estimate, down from 2.44 million tonnes in January, and the lowest since February 2015.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.8 percent, and the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract lost 0.6 percent.

Crude palm kernel oil's offer price was 5,307.61 ringgit per tonne at the midday break, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.

[vincent88]

Malaysia March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,167,775(+22.2%) Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 22.2% from 955,604 tonsduring Feb. 1-29, according to statement from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

[vincent88]

Malaysia March Palm Oil Stocks 1.89m Tons; Matches Survey

 BN 04/11 04:36 *MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.33M TONS; EST. 1.24M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:35 *MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL STOCKS 1.89M TONS; MATCHES SURVEY
  BN 04/11 04:35 *MALAYSIA MARCH CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.22M TONS; EST 1.13M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:33 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL STOCKS 1.89M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:33 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.33M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.22M TONS

Malaysia March Palm Oil Stocks 1.89m Tons; Matches Survey
 2016-04-11 04:41:00.516 GMT


 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s
 second-largest producer, fell 13.1% to 1.89m metric tons in
 March. from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in
 statement.

   * Output rose 17% to 1.22m tons; exports rose 23% to 1.33m
     tons
   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
     at 1.89m tons, production at 1.13m tons and shipments at
     1.24m tons Link

[vincent88]

Malaysia's April 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 320,990 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fall 2% from 327,551 tons in March
 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 724,169 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 0.9% from 717,670 tons in same period last month, according to statement from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

[vincent88]

Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 882,967 Tons: SGS

      (Bloomberg) -- Shipments were little changed from 883,225
 tons in same period last month, according to statement from
 cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Malaysia’s April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 889,944 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 0.4% from 886,749 tons in
March 1-25, Intertek Testing Services says.

[vincent88]

Malaysia April 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,088,052 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fall 6.8% from 1,167,775 tons in March, SGS says in statement.

[vincent88]

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia seen falling to 14-month low

[KUALA LUMPUR] Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably fell to the lowest since February 2015 amid concerns El Nino weather conditions may continue to crimp a recovery in production in the world's second-largest grower.

Inventories eased 3.7 per cent to 1.82 million metric tons in April from a month earlier, dropping for a fifth straight time, according to the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg survey of planters, traders and analysts. That would be the longest declining streak since June 2013.

Production rose 9 per cent to 1.33 million tons while exports fell 6 per cent to 1.25 million tons, the survey showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data by May 10.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur have retreated 6 per cent from a two-year peak in March on concern over demand and anticipation that production would recover from El Nino-induced drought. Yet while El Nino conditions are fading, the impact of the scorching weather pattern on palm oil yields may not be completely over.

"Production may be going up, but it may not be a strong pick up and will trail last year's production, depending on how the weather is for the rest of the second quarter," Ivy Ng, regional head of plantations at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, said by phone.

Production last April was 1.69 million tons.  Stockpiles may continue to decline toward the third quarter as yields in some parts of Malaysia remain crimped by El Nino, Ms Ng said.

Global output may be smaller than previously expected and fall to 61.25 million metric tons this year, the first decline in over 20 years, industry researcher Oil World said in a May 3 report.

The lagging impact of the dry weather will continue throughout 2016 into 2017, the Hamburg-based group said.

Weaker production and stockpiles in Indonesia may also lift demand for Malaysian products, Phang Loy Fatt, a trader at Malaysian planter Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd's marketing division said in May 5 e-mail.

Indonesia's crude palm oil production fell to 2.32 million tons in March from a month earlier, while stockpiles dropped to 3.02 million tons from 3.43 million tons.

Mr Phang expects palm oil to trade between 2,600 ringgit and 2,800 ringgit over the next few weeks. Futures closed the morning session in Kuala Lumpur at 2,611 ringgit.

"It's not like Indonesia will have a bumper crop," Ms Ng said. "As long as both countries have weaker year-on-year crop, then supplies will remain tight and therefore prices will be supported."

About 86 per cent of world supply of palm oil, used in everything from chocolate to biodiesel, is grown in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Malaysia's imports fell 14 per cent to 60,000 tons in April while domestic consumption ranged between 190,000 tons and 240,000 tons, according to the survey.

[vincent88]

Crude Palm Oil market rises on short covering, open interest drops 7.59%

MUMBAI: Crude palm oil settled flat on profit booking after prices gained on speculation of lower supply from Malaysia, the world's biggest palm oil producer. Malaysia palm oil stockpiles for April month are expected to fall to 1.82 million tons, its lowest level since February 2015 compared to 1.89 million tons in March. Malaysia palm oil exports slipped to 1.10 million tons during Apr 1-30 compared to 1.17 million tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor.

Indonesia's exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil in March fell 24% to 1.74 million tons from the previous month, the Indonesian Palm Oil association (GAPKI) said. Indonesia kept export tax for crude palm oil at $3 per tons in May, the first time the country has set an export tax on the commodity since October, 2014. Malaysia’s April 1-20, 2016 CPO production seen up by 11.8% on month according to estimates from Malaysian Palm Oil Association.

India’s palm oil imports rose by 5.34 per cent to 6,42,562 tonnes during March 2016 compared to the previous month on account of sluggish global prices, industry body Solvent Extractors Association said. India purchased 6,09,939 tonnes of palm oil in February this year. Palm oils make up for 65 per cent of the country’s total vegetable oil imports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.59% to settled at 4724, now CPO is getting support at 549 and below same could see a test of 545.5 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 554.5, a move above could see prices testing 556.5.

[vincent88]

Malaysian palm oil price falls

KUALA LUMPUR: Asian vegetable oil markets fell on Friday, with futures in China and Malaysia declining by 2-4 percent, hit by the effects of a sell-off on China's commodities market.
 
    Malaysian palm oil futures tracked refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, falling the most in five months on Friday.

  The most actively traded September contract for palm olein and the September soybean oil contract, both on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, fell 4 percent in Friday's late trade.

    "It's all influenced by massive speculation -- we see high runs and sharp drops," observed a palm oil futures trader in Kuala Lumpur.

 
 

 
 
 

    "What happened earlier with China's stock market is now shifting to commodities."   

    The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 2.3 percent lower at 2,587 ringgit ($642) a tonne at the close of trade. Traded lots stood at 56,153 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

    While this is the market's sharpest drop since it fell 3 percent on Dec. 15, palm still gained 0.8 percent this week for a second consecutive weekly gain.

    "The market slid on Dalian's RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm olein. Most of the commodity prices are down sharply in China, so our market tagged along with that," another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

    Crude palm oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India for May were also dragged down, losing 1 percent.

    China's Dalian Commodity Exchange said on Thursday that it will restore full transaction fees on soybean meal, corn starch, palm oil and soybean oil futures positions that are opened and closed on the same day, among other measures to curb speculative trading behind strong rallies last month.
 

    The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood at 4,844.64 ringgit a tonne <PKO-MYSTH-M1> in the evening, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.- Reuters

[eye-hub]

Malaysian palm oil price sees sharpest drop in a week

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Thursday evening to see its sharpest drop in a week as it tracked a weaker Dalian palm olein oil and on a slightly stronger ringgit, which led to a downtrend in benchmark prices.

    The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.2 percent lower at 2,646 ringgit ($659) per tonne at the close of trade, marking palm's second decline out of four sessions this week. Traded volumes were 52,993 lots of 25 tonnes each on Thursday evening, higher than a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

    "Dalian RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm oil was down," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur, which dragged down benchmark palm oil prices.

    The most actively traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange declined 2.9 percent on Thursday.

    The market also declined on a stronger ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in. The ringgit strengthened 0.4 percent to hit 4.0170 per dollar around Thursday evening, making palm oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

    Palm however is up 0.6 percent on a weekly basis, on track for a second straight week of gains.

    "Generally this month should be strong for palm oil. As we move into the Muslim holiday, exports should improve," said the trader.

    The holy month of Ramadan, which is a period of fasting and feasting for Muslims, begins in early June. The month before Ramadan starts usually sees a higher demand for palm oil for cooking.

    Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first ten days of May rose between 21 percent and 32 percent from the corresponding period a month ago, helped by larger exports to Europe and India. 

    In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.5 percent, while the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July rose 0.1 percent.

    The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood around 4,894 ringgit per tonne <PKO-MYSTH-M1> in the evening, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters. - Reuters

[eye-hub]

Palm oil falls the most in five months, tracking lower Chinese oils

KUALA LUMPUR (May 13): Malaysian palm oil futures fell the most in five months on Friday morning, tracking a sharp drop in rival vegetable oils on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 2.2% lower at 2,589 ringgit (US$642) per tonne at the midday break. There were 27,604 lots of 25 tonnes each traded by the break.

While this is the market's sharpest drop since it fell 3% on Dec 15, palm is still on track to gain 0.8% this week.

"The market slid on Dalian's RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm olein. Most of the commodity prices are down sharply in China, so our market tagged along with that," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

"However, we see the ringgit weakening at 4.03 per dollar, so palm might recover in the afternoon due to that."

A weaker Malaysian ringgit — the currency palm oil is traded in — makes the vegetable oil cheaper for foreign currency holders and can spur purchases. The ringgit fell 0.3% against the dollar on Friday morning.

Another trader added that palm oil is likely to see some weekend covering, after the Dalian Commodity Exchange closes.

Malaysian palm oil futures have tracked the decline in China's rival vegetable oils.

China's Dalian Commodity Exchange said on Thursday that it will restore full transaction fees on soybean meal, corn starch, palm oil, and soybean oil futures positions that are opened and closed on the same day, among other measures to curb speculative trading behind strong rallies last month.

The most actively-traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange declined 4% on Friday morning, while the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also fell 4%.

The Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July saw a 1.1% decline.

The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood around 4,844.64 ringgit per tonne at noon, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0500 GMT:

Contract   Month   Last   Change   Low   High   Volume
MY PALM OIL   MAY6   2635   -40.00   2635   2650   29
MY PALM OIL   JUN6   2604   -56.00   2589   2610   579
MY PALM OIL   JUL6   2589   -59.00   2578   2600   12853
CHINA PALM OLEIN   SEP6   5214   -216.00   5214   5392   1069680
CHINA SOYOIL   SEP6   6044   -250.00   6044   6260   1036378
CBOT SOY OIL   JUL6   32.22   -5.40   32.18   32.67   5012
INDIA PALM OIL   MAY6   541.70   -5.40   540.60   544.6   427
INDIA SOYOIL   MAY6   636.7   -5.70   636.1   640   540
NYMEX CRUDE   JUN6   46.37   -0.33   46.06   46.47   22632
 Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
 CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
 Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
 India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
 Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
 
(US$1 = 4.0300 ringgit)
(US$1 = 66.7665 Indian rupees)
(US$1 = 6.5225 Chinese yuan)

 

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia May 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 574,548 Tons: Sgs
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 14.9% from 499,918 tons in
 April 1-15, according to Societe General de Surveillance.

MALAYSIA'S MAY 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS 563,172 TONS: INTERTEK
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 16.3% from 484,271 tons from April 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

Palm oil falls on higher output, technical selling

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian benchmark palm oil futures reversed gains to hit a two-week low on Wednesday, as speculation over higher output and technical selling dragged the market lower.

The new palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to 2,564 ringgit ($636) per tonne at the midday break. It earlier dipped to 2,561 ringgit, its lowest since May 4.

Traded volumes stood at 23,797 lots of 25 tonnes each at noon.

"We're seeing a technical sell off, which only happens once the 2,600 ringgit range is broken and profit taking comes in," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"There could be speculation of better output on the back of massive rains in recent weeks, but rain is subjective to location."

Improving output would weigh down on palm's benchmark prices, which gained nearly 10 percent in the first quarter of the year on declining production from a crop-damaging El Nino.

The El Nino weather event causes scorching heat across Southeast Asia, lowering yields and impacting palm oil production in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Gains in palm benchmark prices, which have risen 4.6 percent so far this year, could also be capped by slower demand growth in top consumers China and India.

Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first half of May grew 14-16 percent from a month ago, a slower growth rate versus the 22-32 percent export rise seen in the first ten days of May.

In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.5 percent, while the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for August was down 0.4 percent.

The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood at 4,877.71 ringgit a tonne at noon, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.


Copyright Reuters, 2016

[vincent88]

Palm analyst Mistry cuts palm forecast to 2,600-2,800 rgt/T

* Output recovery, weaker demand undercuts prices -Mistry

* High inventories to pull prices to 2,200-2,300 rgt/T by Q4-Fry

* Palm price to continue to rise to above 2,800 rgt/T-Mielke

By Emily Chow

May 19 (Reuters) - Palm oil will trade at 2,600 to 2,800ringgit per tonne from now until July, said industry analystDorab Mistry on Thursday, lower than forecast earlier as outputrecovers faster than expected and demand is softer.

From July onwards, prices could then slip to 2,500 ringgit($613.50), but are not expected to weaken further, he said.





Mistry had previously said palm prices would reach 3,000ringgit a tonne this year on crop damage from an El Nino weatherpattern. But output is now forecast to be better than expected,making it harder for prices to hit that mark.

Benchmark futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange have lost about 8 percent since touching values near2,800 ringgit a tonne in March and April, the highest levelsseen in two years. On Thursday, palm futures fell 1.6 percent toreach 2,519 ringgit by the close of trade.

"From July, as we witness a strong recovery in productionand as stocks build up, we may see crude palm oil (CPO) pricesslip to 2,500 ringgit, but I do not expect further weakness,"said Mistry at the Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar in India,according to a copy of his speech as seen by Reuters.

El Nino weather events typically bring dry weather toSoutheast Asia, lowering palm output in top producers Indonesiaand Malaysia.

Mistry sees global output declining from the previous yearby 2.5 million tonnes - 1.5 million tonnes in Malaysia and 1million in Indonesia - in the oil year through September, downfrom a previous estimate of a 3 million-tonne drop.


Another analyst said on Monday in Turkey at a similar palmoil seminar and trade fair that high inventories in the fourthquarter would pull palm prices down to 2,200-2,300 ringgit.

"By the final quarter of the year, the combined CPO outputof Malaysia and Indonesia will be back in positive growth," saidJames Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMCInternational, in remarks that were posted online.

Fry had forecast in March for palm oil prices to reach2,750-2,900 ringgit by June.

Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World,however, said at the event in Turkey - also in remarks postedonline - that palm oil prices would continue to rise, but therecovery would depend on output, end-stocks, demand andbiodiesel developments.

"Palm oil futures are likely to recover to 2,800 ringgit andabove," he said without stating when, pegging global palm outputto fall 1.4 million tonnes in the oil year through September.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia's May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 981,630 (+11.2%) Tons: SGS

(BFW) Malaysia's May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 965,253 Tons: Intertek

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports 1,251,695 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 15% from 1,088,052 tons in April, according to statement from cargo surveyor SocieteGenerale de Surveillance.

(BFW) Malaysia?s May Palm Oil Exports 1,233,135 Tons: Intertek

 (Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 11.2% from 1,108,619 tons in April, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

Palm oil stocks may fall to lowest level since Feb 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s palm oil inventories could have fallen 12% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.59 million tonnes in May 2016, its lowest level since February 2011, according to CIMB Research.

 “Findings from a survey of 25 Malaysian planters by the CIMB Futures team revealed that Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) output grew by 1.1% m-o-m to 1.3 million tonnes in May 16. Palm oil exports grew by approximately 13% m-o-m, based on export statistics released by SGS and ITS.

“Overall, we estimate that Malaysian palm oil inventories could have fallen 12% m-o-m to 1.59 million tonnes as at end-May 16, its lowest level since February 2011,” CIMB said.

 The official figures will be released on June 10.

CIMB said the 1% m-o-m rise in output was below the historical average m-o-m rise in May’s palm oil output of 7% over the past five years.

 It added that on a year-on-year basis, CPO output fell 27% as the El Nino continued to negatively impact fresh fruit bunch yields. Its survey revealed that Sabah estates posted the biggest rise in output of around 10% m-o-m, but this was offset by weaker output from the Peninsular Malaysia (-4.5% m-o-m) and Sarawak (-1.6% m-o-m) estates.

“We estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by circa 13% m-o-m in May 2016, based on estimates from cargo surveyor SGS (15% mom) and ITS (11.2% mom). The strong May exports could also have been partly due to buying ahead of the Eid-al-Fitr festival,” CIMB said.

 It expects La Nina to have a positive short-term impact on CPO price as harvesting was affected in flood-prone estates. In the medium term, rainfall may boost palm oil yields, leading to higher output and lower prices.

 However, it said that downside risk to CPO price could be capped by a smaller soybean crop as La Nina tends to bring lower rainfall to parts of key soybean-producing areas. Bar the 1998/01 La Nina events, CPO prices tend to react positively to La Nina due to lagged effects of El Nino, that precede most La Nina events.

“CPO prices rose 21% year-on-year to an average RM2,617 per tonne in May 2016, reflecting the weaker palm oil supply.

“We expect CPO prices to trade in the RM2,500-2,900 per tonne range in June, as palm oil supplies are expected to get tighter due to weaker-than-expected supply. We maintain a ‘neutral’ rating on the sector,” CIMB said.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia May Palm Oil Stockpiles 1.65m Tons; Est. 1.66m Tons   
                                                                                   
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.28M TONS; EST. 1.32M TONS
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY PALM OIL STOCKPILES 1.65M TONS; EST. 1.66M TONS
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.36M TONS; EST. 1.35M TONS

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, fell 8.8% to 1.65m metric tons in May from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.
* Output rose 4.9% to 1.36m tons
* Exports rose 9.3% to 1.28m tons
* NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.66m tons, production at 1.35m tons and shipments at 1.32m tons Link

[vincent88]

BN 06/10 02:58 *MALAYSIA'S JUNE 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 368,316 TONS: INTERTEK

 (Bloomberg) -- Shipments drop 5.9% from 391,222 tons in May 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

Malaysia palm prices to remain around MR2,400/mt in Q4 on higher output: Rabobank

Singapore (Platts)--22 Jun 2016 233 am EDT/633 GMT





Palm oil prices should remain weak, averaging around MR2,400/mt ($594.71/mt), during the fourth quarter of 2016, due to recovering Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production and weaker demand, Rabobank said in its June Agri Commodities Monthly update released late Tuesday.

Palm futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell below the MR2,500/mt mark on June 15, from MR2,600/mt levels seen during late May-early June, the report said.

Malaysia's May palm oil production was at 1.36 million mt, down 4.5% from April and 25% year on year, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data.

The year-on-year decline in May was largest recorded in 2016, the Rabobank report said, and forecast year-on-year declines would reduce going forward, with output in June expected to recover to 1.55 million mt, or up 15% month on month.

Indonesian palm oil output in May is expected at 2.2 million mt, it added.

Meanwhile, CPO prices were capped on expectations of lower vegoil demand and a faltering soybean price rally, the report added.

Shipping surveyors SGS data revealed that 555,000 mt of palm oil was exported from Malaysia during first-half June, down 3.4% month on month, said the report.

Indonesian exports were estimated to have fallen 5% on the month to 1.98 million mt in May.

Major palm oil destination markets like India and Bangladesh saw 62% and 38% year-on-year declines in palm oil imports, respectively, in May, the report said.

Domestic stocks of vegoils in India rose 10% year on year to 8.5 million mt in May.

Chinese vegoil imports declined to 200,000 mt in May, down 50% month on month, while port stocks at end May were up 30% year on year at 600,000 mt, according to the report. Since US NOPA soy oil stocks were also higher, CPO prices were forecast to remain around MR2,400/mt levels.

Malaysian palm oil inventory was at 1.65 million mt in May, the lowest level seen for May since 2010, the report said.

Malaysian palm oil stocks should rebound from June on weaker demand as the fasting month of Ramadan would end by July, and also due to higher seasonal production, the report added.

[vincent88]

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

  BN 06/27 03:57 *MALAYSIA'S JUNE 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 872,738 TONS: INTERTEK


 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 Malaysia’s June 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 872,738 Tons: Intertek
 2016-06-27 04:00:31.526 GMT


 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 9.6% from 965,253 tons during
 May 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.

[vincent88]

(BFW) Malaysia June Palm Oil Stockpiles 1.78m Tons; Est. 1.72m Tons

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

  BN 07/12 04:33 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.13M TONS; EST. 1.21M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:32 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKPILES 1.78M TONS; EST. 1.72M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.53M TONS; EST. 1.49M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.13M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS 1.78M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.53M TONS


 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, rose 7.7% to 1.78m metric tons in June
 from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.

   * Output rose 12.3% to 1.53m tons; exports fell 11.7% to 1.13m
     tons
   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
     at 1.72m tons, production at 1.49m tons and shipments at
     1.21m tons  Link

[vincent88]

MCX Crude Palm Oil may trade between US489.9-498.5 levels

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.14% at 493.2 despite of demand following improved Malaysian palm oil July 1-10 export data. Prices of palm oil were up taking cues from international market on higher demand Malaysia palm oil exports during July 1-10 climbed 5.2% compared to a month earlier on higher demand from European Union and Middle East, data showed.

Malaysia palm oil exports jumped to 387,589 tons during July 1-10 compared to 368,316 tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor. Moreover, Indonesia, the world's biggest oil producer, will lower the export tax for CPO to zero in July, down from $3 per ton in June, a Trade Ministry official said. The tax will be scrapped for next month as the government expects its reference price for CPO to fall for the period of July, the official said.

Indonesia's exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil in May fell 16 percent from April to 1.76 million tons, the GAPKI said in a statement. The drop in exports is a result of "the implementation of mandatory biodiesel (blend) and increasing domestic demand especially in food industry. Palm oil imports fell by 28 per cent to 657,454 tonnes in May, in view of higher stock availability and sluggish summer demand, industry body Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) said.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.28% to settled at 4328 while prices down -0.7 rupee, now CPO is getting support at 491.5 and below same could see a test of 489.9 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 495.8, a move above could see prices testing 498.5.

Trading Ideas:
--CPO trading range for the day is 489.9-498.5.
--Crude palm oil ended with nominal losses despite of demand following improved Malaysian palm oil July 1-10 export data.
--Malaysia palm oil exports during July 1-10 climbed 5.2% compared to a month earlier on higher demand from European Union and Middle East.
--Indonesia will lower the export tax for CPO to zero in July, down from $3 per ton in June, a Trade Ministry official said.
--Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 3.20 rupees and settled at 502.30 rupees.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

[vincent88]

Malaysia palm oil stocks see first gain in 7 months as demand tumbles

* Exports see bigger-than-expected drop, hit four-month low

* Rising stocks may weigh on prices trading near 9-month low

* The trend of higher production is expected to continue

(Adds graphic link, updates prices)

KUALA LUMPUR, July 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil inventories rose for the first time in seven months in June, as overseas sales fell more than expected and production climbed,in what is a bearish sign for prices of the vegetable oil that are already mired near nine-month lows.

Palm oil stocks in the world's No.2 producer after Indonesia stood at 1.78 million tonnes at end-June, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Tuesday, up 7.7 percent from May when inventories hit a more than five-year low as buyers stocked up ahead of Ramadan. (MYPOMS-TPO) June output rose 12.3 percent to 1.53 million tonnes from May, while exports fell 11.7 percent to a four-month low of 1.13 million tonnes, MPOB data showed. (MYPOMP-CPOTT) (MYPOME-PO)

A Reuters survey had forecast a 7.4 percent increase in June stockpiles, the first gain after November, a drop of 6.4 percent in exports and a rise of 11 percent in output. "Export situation is really worrisome," said one Kuala Lumpur based trader with an international trading company. "Production is climbing at a faster rate. Normally, June output is either lower than May or it is at par but more than 12 percent increase is big."

Higher output and waning export demand after Ramadan have already hurt benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, which dropped to a low of 2,198 ringgit ($552.26) per tonne on Tuesday - the weakest since late September. The trend of higher production is expected to continue,traders said.

"June production is an indication that the output from July onwards will be higher," a second Kuala Lumpur trader said. "We are getting good rains which could be due to La Nina weather." While dryness across Southeast Asia related to an El Nino weather event that recently ended is expected to curb global palm output this year, an emergence of La Nina and resultant rains in the region could help improve fresh fruit yields.Weather forecasters globally are predicting a 50-75 percent chance of La Nina developing in the second half of 2016.Malaysian palm oil exports for July 1-10 rose 5.2 percent to 387,589 tonnes from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services has said. The market is now waiting for the next update from cargo surveyors, due on July 15, for trading cues.

The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Boardmfigures and Reuters estimates for June:

(volumes in tonnes)

June 2016 June 2016 poll June 2015 May 2016

Output 1,532,613 1,514,162 1,763,667 1,364,575

Stocks 1,776,264 1,767,500 2,141,910 1,649,884

Exports 1,132,282 1,200,000 1,697,169 1,282,415

Imports 19,636 35,000 103,496 20,024

($1 = 3.9800 ringgit)

(Reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi and Naveen Thukral; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

[vincent88]

Palm oil stockpile in Malaysia seen rising in July

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil inventories in Malaysia likely rose for a second month in July, in the first back-to-back gain since November, as production continued to recover from stresses caused by El Nino weather.
 
 Inventoriesrose 2.2 percent to 1.82 million metric tons in July from June, according to the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg survey of planters, traders and analysts. Productionof crude palm oil likely rose 3.9 percent to 1.59 million tons, its fifth straight monthly rise. Exports likely surged 15 percent to 1.3 million tons, which would be the biggest climb in four months. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data by August 10.

  Anticipation of higher export demand and prospects for La Nina weather in coming months have boosted palm oil futures 5.5 percent so far this week, putting them on track for the best week since February. While production in the world's second- largest grower is recovering from El Nino-induced dry weather, board data show first half crude palm oil output was 16 percent lower than last year. For July, production of 1.59 million tons would still be the lowest for the month since 2010.

  “All eyes will be on August and September production,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn.


 
 

 
 
 
“We are not anticipating any double digit increase in both months.”

 Malaysia's production this year may drop to between 18.2 million and 18.5 million tons from 20 million tons in 2015, he said, adding that he anticipates long-term support for prices as the market takes that into account.

  Hamburg-based Oil World lowered its forecast for global production on Tuesday, saying it expects a 3.5 percent decline this year to 60.4 million metric tons. That's 200,000 tons lower than its June estimate.

 The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says there's a 50 percent chance of La Nina forming this year, which may trigger heavy rains and floods that affects fruit quality and complicate harvesting.

  “Production should continue its upswing in line with seasonal trends, but we expect it to stay below the five-year historical average,” said Voon Yee Ping, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd.

  Demand Rebound

  While a second monthly gain in Malaysian palm oil reserves may weigh on futures, demand for the oil used in everything from cooking to cosmetics is set to recover, according to Ivy Ng, regional head of plantations at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.

  “The higher demand for palm oil suggests that palm oil stock levels at the consuming countries are currently low and that palm oil prices have regained competitiveness against other edible oils,” Ng wrote in an Aug. 1 note.

 Prices in August may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit a ton, she said.

  Exports from Malaysia jumped 15 percent in July, according to data from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

 Shipments to China, the world's largest palm consumer after India, surged 68 percent to 225,856 metric tons in the month compared to June.

  The contract for October delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was 1.2 percent higher at 2,444 ringgit by Thursday's close.

 Palm oil has trimmed an annual loss of as much as 12 percent to a 1.7 percent decline this year, and have climbed 12 percent from its bear market close of 2,188 ringgit on July 12.

  Malaysian imports were probably 20,000 tons in July from 19,636 tons in June, while estimates for domestic consumption ranged between 240,000 tons and 290,000 tons, according to the survey. - Bloomberg

[vincent88]

CIMB: AGRIBUSINESS UPDATE - Stronger Chinese demand boost exports


* Malaysian palm oil stocks fell 0.2% mom to 1.77m tonnes at end-Jul 2016.
 * Stockpile was 2-3% below our and consensus estimates, positive for CPO prices.
 * We cut 2016 palm oil supply estimate for Malaysia by 6% to 17.9m tonnes.
 * We project that palm oil stocks will rise 1% mom to 1.79m tonnes at end-Aug 2016.
 * Maintain Neutral, with AALI, FR and GENP as our top picks.
 

Palm oil stocks fell 0.2% mom at end-Jul
Palm oil stocks in Malaysia fell 0.2% mom to 1.77m tonnes at end-Jul thanks to higher exports. The stock level was 2% below our projection of 1.81m tonnes due to lower imports and higher domestic consumption. The stockpile was also 3% below Bloomberg and Reuters poll estimates of 1.82m tonnes and 1.83m tonnes, respectively. On a yoy basis, end-Jul stocks fell 22% as weaker output trumped exports.

El Nino reduced palm oil supply by 1.7m tonnes in 7M16
We are slightly positive on this news as the stockpile was below our and consensus estimates. Slower mom rise in CPO production in Jul was due to lower productivity as estates workers were away for Eid-al-Fitr celebration. We expect palm oil supply to rise mom from Aug onwards, in line with peak production season, but this would not cover shortfall of 1.685m tonnes in 7M16 due to El Nino. We cut Malaysia palm oil supply estimate by 6% to 17.9m tonnes and now expect CPO supply to fall 10% yoy in 2016.

Stronger demand from China to boost sentiment
Palm oil exports jumped 21% mom in Jul to 1.384m tonnes or the highest monthly exports for the year. This was due to stronger demand from China and the US. Palm oil exports fell 8% to 8.7m tonnes in 7M16. All major importing countries, with the exception of Pakistan, imported less palm oil from Malaysia in 7M16.

Project marginal rise in stocks at end-Aug
Our initial tentative estimates suggest that palm oil stocks will rise by 1% mom in Aug 2016 to 1.79m tonnes. We project that Aug production will increase by 8% mom and exports of palm oil will rise 5% mom. In the first 10 days of Aug, Malaysian palm oil exports rose 18% against the same period in the previous month.

Expect better qoq results in 2Q16. Maintain Neutral
We expect planters to report flattish to lower yoy earnings in 2Q16. However, we project that 2Q16 earnings will be much better than 1Q16 due to the 8% qoq rise in selling prices and 20% increase in output. We expect CPO prices to trade in the price range of RM2,200-2,600 per tonne in Aug and average RM2,450 per tonne in 2016 and RM2,600 in 2017. We maintain our Neutral sector rating and AALI, GENP and FR as our top picks.

[vincent88]

VEGOILS-Palm oil snaps winning streak, tracking weaker soyoil


* Palm sees first drop in five sessions

* Palm hits intraday high of 2,575 rgt then retreats

* Market draws profit taking - Trader

(Updates with closing prices)

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, July 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday, ending a four-day winning streak, as soyoil's weak performance on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) weighed.

The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.3 percent at 2,554 ringgit ($594) a tonne. It had earlier risen to 2,575 ringgit, its highest since May 26.

Palm oil's gains over the previous four days were prompted by forecasts of falling production ahead of industry regulator data release on July 10. The market gained 3.9 percent on the week.

A Reuters poll had forecast production to fall to 1.62 million tonnes in June, down 2.1 percent from the previous month.

However, end stocks are seen up 0.2 percent to 1.56 million tonnes, while exports are likely to dive 8.2 percent to 1.38 million tonnes on-month.

Traded volumes totalled 39,201 lots of 25 tonnes each on Friday.

"We are seeing some profit taking after the week-long rally on the back of softening soyoil and Dalian," said a futures trader from Kuala Lumpur, referring to CBOT soyoil and related edible oils on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.

Palm oil prices are affected by movements in related edible oils, as they compete for a share in the global edible oils market.

Soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.8 percent, while September soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.1 percent.

In other related oils, the September palm olein contract rose 0.3 percent.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1100 GMT Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

[vincent88]

MPOB S&D Jun vs May:
Prodn 1.33m vs 1.53m (-12.6%)
Impt 86k vs 32k
Expt 1.13m vs 1.29m (-12.6%)
LDsp 271k vs 277k
Stks 2.19m vs 2.17m (+0.8%)

Reuters Poll:
Prodn 1.36m (-11.1%)
Impt 36k
Expt 1.19m (-7.8%)
LDsp 228k
Stks 2.15m (-1.2%)

Bloomberg Poll:
Prodn 1.37m (-11.0%)
Impt 30k
Expt 1.18m (-8.5%)
LDsp 230k-270k
Stks 2.17m (unch)

[vincent88]

Indonesia’s May Palm Oil Stockpiles Rise to 4.76 Million Tons

(Bloomberg) -- Inventories climb from 3.98 million metric tons in April, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, says in emailed statement on Wednesday.
Production at 4.24 million tons versus 3.72 million tons in previous month
Exports, including biodiesel and oleochemical, fall to 2.33 million tons from 2.39 million tons in April
Jan.- May exports at 12,569 million tons
To contact the reporter on this story: Yoga Rusmana in Jakarta

[vincent88]

CIMB Sees Malaysia Palm Oil Inventories Rising 11% M/m in July
07/11/2018 11:19:14
By Anuradha Raghu
(Bloomberg) -- Stockpiles est. +11% m/m to ~2.42m tons at end-July, CIMB regional head of agribusiness Ivy Ng says in July 10 report.
*July production seen +9% m/m to 1.45m tons as harvesting activity picks up pace following the return of workers from festive celebrations
*NOTE: Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves Advance in June on Weaker Exports
*Higher-than-expected stockpiles in June were due to weaker-than-expected exports, which is negative for prices in the short-term given the high inventories in Malaysia and the looming high palm production season
*Lower demand may be due to de-stocking, possible shifting of imports from Malaysia to Indonesia
*Exports seen -5% m/m to 1.07m tons due to weak demand in key importers
*Weak demand in July 1-10 may be partly due to softer currencies of India, China
*Spot CPO prices expected to trade 2,200-2,400 ringgit/ton range in July
*Key bearish factors are weak demand, “stubbornly high” inventories in Malaysia and potentially higher supply in 2H
*Bullish factors are higher crude oil prices, China’s tariffs on U.S. soy, rising biodiesel mandates in Indonesia
*Development of El Nino conditions should be watched
*CIMB maintains neutral rating on the sector

[vincent88]

MALAYSIA LOWERS AUGUST CRUDE PALM OIL EXPORT TAX TO 4.5 PCT, VS 5.0 PCT IN JULY -GOVT CIRCULAR - Reuters News

[vincent88]

Malaysia's Jul 1-10 palm oil exports fell 23.1 pct -SGS - Reuters News