Author Topic: CPO Latest Updated News  (Read 127723 times)

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #50 on: July 21, 2014, 12:01:03 PM »
MALAYSIA JULY 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 868,843 (+7.76%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2014, 08:08:58 PM »
MALAYSIA JULY 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 864,258 (+10.58%) TONS: SGS

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2014, 04:19:10 PM »
Palm oil futures set to rise

Strong support seen near Malaysian ringgit 2,265-75

July 21, 2014:   Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives edged lower on Monday dropping to a nine-month low on weakness in the soya complex and a firm local currency once again dampening sentiment. Exports showed a positive trend for a change.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-20 rose 7.8 per cent from a month before to 868,843 tonnes due to bigger shipments to Europe and China. Exports to China nearly doubled compared with the same period in June.

Crude palm oil active month October futures are lower as expected. As mentioned in the previous update, a move below MYR 2,375/tonne could hint at weakness again possibly targeting 2,250 on the downside. Several targets are seen being tested in the coming sessions on the break below 2,275 levels.

Strong support will be seen near MYR 2,265-75 followed by important support at 2,245- 50 . Below here the market could be inclined to test further lows near MYR 2,185 levels too.

Though the undercurrent is weak, prices are displaying bullish tendencies.

Prices are holding well above 2,275-85 levels and this gives us a feeling that an up move or pullback looks likely in the coming sessions. Initial resistance will be seen towards towards 2,355-65 initially or could even extend towards 2,395-2,400 levels.

Though, the downtrend still remains intact, the downside from here also looks limited. Favoured view expects a pullback higher.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at MYR 2,898/tonne and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,185 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating a possible upward correction.

However, the averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearishness to be intact. Only a crossover again above the zero line could at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to rise again.

Supports are at MYR 2,265, 2,245 and 2,185. Resistances are at MYR 2,365, 2,400 and 2,435.

The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is risk of loss in trading.

(This article was published on July 21, 2014)

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #53 on: July 23, 2014, 10:30:22 PM »
Palm falls for 2nd day on external pressures; tight supplies anticipated

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second day on Tuesday, following losses in Chinese soy markets and on worries of bumper soy crops, although anticipation of tighter palm supplies curbed losses and kept prices stuck in a tight range.

By the midday break, the benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.4 percent to 2,287 ringgit ($720) per tonne, with prices locked between 2,282 and 2,293 ringgit.

While bearish external factors such as forecasts for an excellent soybean harvest and weakness in comparative soyoil markets continue to weigh on palm, market participants said prices were underpinned by prospects of a palm oil supply squeeze in the coming months.

"Prices are drifting sideways now - external conditions are bearish, but palm is friendly," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"At these levels, you can see a lot of buying coming in. We have seen people locking in positions in the forwards, because it is even cheaper than the nearby months."

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, slid to a 1-year low of 1.66 million tonnes at end-June.

Traders and analysts say stocks could continue to shrink, due to robust export demand and with output slated to fall as plantation workers go on holiday ahead of a Muslim festival at the end of this month.

"Stocks are currently very tight and this month's stocks will be even tighter. This is providing a strong support base for palm," the trader added.

Total traded volume on Tuesday stood at 11,888 lots of 25 tonnes, below the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals show Malaysian palm oil is expected to fall into a range of 2,250-2,268 ringgit per tonne, driven by a wave 3, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

"This is the third wave of a five-wave cycle that developed from the June 25 high of 2,511 ringgit. It has a fierce character and may eventually travel to 2,220 ringgit, its 161.8 percent projection level," Tao added.

Better harvesting conditions for the US soybean crop have paved the way for a bumper supply of the competing oilseed, which would weaken soyoil prices and potentially channel food and fuel demand away from palm.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that soybean conditions improved during the past week to the best level in 20 years, surprising several analysts who expected steady to lower soy ratings.

Firm export data in July, however, signalled a recovery in demand for the tropical oil.

Cargo surveyors reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-20 rose between 8 and 10 percent from a month ago, with exports to China nearly doubling compared with the same period in June.

Indonesia, the world's biggest palm grower, said it expects to export between 19 million and 20 million tonnes of palm oil in 2014, a decline of up to 9.5 percent from the 21 million tonnes sold last year.

Its leading industry body, Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), cited higher costs of logistics and shipping, as well as a "black campaign" against Indonesian palm oil that continues to impact its sales in the global market.

Indonesian exports in the first half of 2014 amounted to 9.75 million tonnes, down from around 11 million tonnes in the first half of 2013, according to GAPKI.

Malaysia exported 8.1 million tonnes in the same period, compared with 8.8 million tonnes last year, according to data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract rose 0.4 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 0.4 percent.

In other markets, Brent crude edged up towards $108 a barrel on Tuesday, pushed higher by escalating geopolitical tension over Ukraine and expectations of large draws in US oil stockpiles.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #54 on: July 26, 2014, 10:00:57 AM »
Palm gives up gains as export demand falters

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, reversing gains in the morning session to post their fourth straight weekly loss, as weaker-than-expected export data and jitters over rising global oilseed supply dragged.

Palm oil prices had edged up to 2,294 ringgit in early trade as investors short-covered positions ahead of the long weekend. Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

But dwindling demand for palm oil after robust exports earlier this month turned investors wary and piled pressure on prices.

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported that exports of Malaysia's palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 1.6 percent to 1,078,253 tonnes compared to a month ago, as demand from the United States and China lagged.

Intertek Testing Services, another cargo surveyor, reported exports for the same period were up 3.4 percent from a month ago, losing steam from bigger volumes of overseas sales earlier this month.

"There are some worries demand will be bad. The full-month exports might be lower, that's why the market is under pressure," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"There was also some profit-taking which pushed the market down."

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.7 percent to 2,265 ringgit ($714) per tonne by the day's close.

Prices fell 1.9 percent this week, recording their fourth weekly loss and a near 7 percent drop for the month.

Total traded volume stood at 24,488 lots of 25 tonnes, compared with the daily average of 35,000 lots.

Technicals were bearish. Malaysian palm oil may end its current rebound from the July 23 low of 2,247 ringgit around resistance at 2,298 ringgit, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Investors are also keeping a watch on output volumes in Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's top growers of the tropical commodity.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers, forecast that crude palm oil output in the No.2 producer surged more than 16 percent between July 1-20.

"Production is very important. We want to see how production is like," said another trader who is with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.

Official data for production and end-stocks will only be released by industry regulators next month.

In other markets, oil held steady around $107 a barrel on Friday, as plentiful supply countered any premium to the price caused by concern over conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract fell 0.4 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.3 percent.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #55 on: July 26, 2014, 10:14:29 AM »
MALAYSIA JULY 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,165,306 (+3.41%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #56 on: July 29, 2014, 11:17:11 PM »
Palm oil to test supports, rise

Support seen near Ringgit 2,265-75/tonne

Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended lower on Friday on rising global oilseed supply and falling exports ahead of a long weekend. Persistent weakness in the soya complex continues to weigh on Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange’s crude palm oil.

Malaysian markets are closed on Monday and Tuesday for Eid. Cargo surveyors SGS estimated that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 1.6 per cent to 1,078,253 tonnes compared with the month ago period.

Crude palm oil active month October futures are lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, prices could possibly be targeting MYR 2,250/tonne on the downside.

Also, as discussed, several targets are seen being tested in the coming sessions on the break below 2,275 levels.

Support will be seen near 2,265-75 followed by important support at 2,245-50 levels.

Below here the market could be inclined to test further lows near 2,185 levels too.

Though the undercurrent is weak, prices are still displaying some bullish tendencies.

Prices are holding well above 2,245-50 levels and an up move or pullback looks likely in the coming sessions.

While MYR 2,250 holds, prices are expected to test resistances at 2,355-65 initially or could even extend towards 2,395-2,400 levels.

Fall below 2,245 could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135/tonne and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,185 levels now.

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold.

However, the averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could result at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then rise again.

Supports are at MYR 2,255, 2,210 and 2,185. Resistances are at MYR 2,300, 2,355 and 2,395.


Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #57 on: July 31, 2014, 01:09:31 PM »
MALAYSIA'S JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,353,515 (-2.76%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #58 on: July 31, 2014, 10:19:37 PM »
Palm oil price revival depends on biodiesel scheme

GOING into the second half of the year, many quarters are anticipating the country’s steep palm oil stocks can be reduced considerably – thanks to the nationwide implementation of the B5 biodiesel programme that takes effect this month.

It is envisaged that some 500,000 tonnes of palm oil annually would be taken up from the palm oil stockpile for B5 biodiesel that will be used in the Government’s subsidised and non-subsidised sectors.

(The B5 biodiesel is a blend of 5% palm oil or palm methyl ester (PME) with 90% diesel fuel)

The Government’s strong push for the biodiesel mandate could translate into the steep domestic palm oil stocks being reduced to below one million tonnes and also provide a floor price for CPO at RM2,000 per tonne.

 
 
 

In June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that palm oil stock had already dropped to 1.66 million tonnes compared with 1.84 million tonnes in May.

Traditionally, the local palm oil inventory level is closely monitored by market players as it is used as the yardstick to gauge the next CPO price direction. The lower stock pile would normally signal that higher CPO prices are in the offing.

However, these bullish fundamentals are not being reflected in the current CPO prices, which are trending lower at RM2,290 to RM2,360 per tonne from its high of RM2,901 per tonne in March.

Experts said the CPO market actually had been spooked by recent reports that Malaysia’s palm oil stocks would breach 2 million tonnes by year-end.

Of late, many regional market analysts are speculating that palm oil stock could escalate to 2 million-2.4 million tonnes by end-2014, and possibly match the historic high of 2.6 million in 2012.

Contrary to earlier estimates, experts pointed out that the global palm oil production by the world’s largest producers – Indonesia and Malaysia – this year is expected to be higher at 30.4 million tonnes and 19.4 million tonnes respectively.

There will be more new oil palm maturing areas in East Kalimantan, Sarawak and Sabah this year that will trigger higher production.

Should this scenario occur, the CPO price could be dragged to trade below RM2,200 per tonne in the later part of this year, of which palm oil plantation owners could be experiencing some margin erosions.

On the flip side, when CPO is trading below RM2,200 per tonne, some quarters said the country’s lacklustre biodiesel industry could be deemed feasible due to the availability of cheaper palm oil feedstock to be converted into PME.

At the same time, the fortunes of oil palm plantations players could also be hit, should weaker CPO prices persist till year-end.

Among plantation companies, a mere RM100 increase or drop in the CPO price per tonne could translate into additional or reduced contributions to group profits.

For Sime Darby Bhd, every RM100 per tonne change in the CPO price would result in an “addition or reduction” of RM250mil to the group’s profit. Similarly, for Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd, every RM100 change in the CPO price could result in a RM100mil change in profit.

Despite the uncertainties ahead and the CPO price currently trading lower at RM2,250 per tonne, some quarters maintained that planters in Peninsular Malaysia would continue to reap in profits as their average CPO cost of production (COP) is still good at RM1,200 per tonne. The COP for Sabah and Sarawak planters’ is RM1,300 per tonne and RM1,600 per tonne respectively.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #59 on: August 01, 2014, 10:20:57 PM »
Palm rises on weaker ringgit, set for first weekly gain in five

Malaysian palm oil futures rose today and were headed for their first weekly gain in five weeks, as a weaker local currency spurred buying interest for the ringgit-denominated palm feedstock.

The Malaysian ringgit slipped another 0.3% to 3.2070 per dollar early Friday, making margins more attractive for overseas investors and refiners. "Today the prices are following the further weakness in the ringgit," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
 Palm prices were also facing a bout of technical correction, traders said. "For the past 2-3 times, whenever prices went to the RM2,250 level, the market was unable to close below that level and always bounced back. So now, technically, prices are bouncing back to test the RM2,290-RM2,295 level," the trader added. By the midday break, the benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.9% to RM2,277 per tonne. Total traded volume stood at 13,454 lots of 25 tonnes, just above the usual 12,500 lots.

 Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to test a resistance at RM2,298 per tonne, a break above which will lead to a further gain to RM2,328, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Palm oil prices are geared for their first weekly gain in five with a 0.5% rise, after chalking up four weeks of losses. But a dip in global demand towards the end of July, after a strong surge in overseas sales earlier in the month, crimped gains and made investors cautious of bigger inventories in the world's No.2 producer. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services put shipments of Malaysian palm oil products 2.8% lower in July than in June, due to smaller purchases from China. "We had anticipated exports to be higher in July," the Malaysia-based trader added. "Because of the fall in exports, stocks may be higher than what the market had expected." Stocks in Malaysia stood at 1.66 million tonnes at end-June. Another cargo surveyor will release data for the same period on Monday. In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract shed 0.2% in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 0.5%. In other markets, Brent crude held near US$106 (RM339.71) a barrel today as ample supply continued to drag on prices a day after the benchmark posted its worst monthly performance since April 2013.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #60 on: August 04, 2014, 07:54:15 PM »
Higher palm oil output to cap prices, depending on El Nino

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil production in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia could pick up in the final months of this year, keeping a lid on prices, although some in the market are still worried about a potential El Nino plus tree stress in Malaysia.

Crude palm prices in Malaysia have tumbled more than 15 percent this year, due in part to a bumper harvest of rival soybeans. On Monday the benchmark October contract was down 1.1 percent at RM2,260 ($706) per tonne at midday.

The El Nino weather phenomenon, a warming of sea temperatures in the Pacific, can drench parts of the globe and parch others, damaging crops and food supply. Worries about an El Nino made many cautious about the palm crop initially this year.

However, Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, churned out 9.1 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and June, up from 8.4 million in the same period last year.

 
 
 

"Output will be good. It is already showing signs of double-digit growth," said a trader with a Malaysian commodities brokerage. "In another two or three months, we're going to get close to 1.9 to 2.0 million tonnes of stocks."

Malaysian stocks stood at 1.66 million at the end of June.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the industry regulator, sees output hitting a record 19.5 million tonnes this year versus 19.2 million in 2013.

Not everyone expects such a surge. Some planters say output will be capped by the delayed impact of a short drought earlier this year.

"Production will pick up but the big question is by how much," said Carl Bek-Nielson, chief executive of Danish-Malaysian United Plantations.

"We don't expect a bumper crop in the second half as a function of the very dry weather and the stress the palm tress were exposed to in the first half," he added.

Fears of an El Nino have not entirely disappeared, either.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on July 29 that Pacific Ocean temperatures had eased in recent weeks but that an El Nino could not be ruled out, even though it was "increasingly unlikely to be a strong event" if it did occur.

"Overall, output could be higher, but it is subject to the El Nino effect," said Puru Kumaran, chief financial officer at IJM Plantations Bhd. "We really don't know whether there could be an effect that could hit towards the last quarter of the year."

INDONESIAN OUTPUT TO RISE

The outlook for crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's biggest grower, has turned round recently.

The Agriculture Ministry said in mid-July that output in 2014 had initially been forecast to drop 15-20 percent due to the predicted El Nino, but now it was expected to reach 29.5 million tonnes, up 6.3 percent from 27.8 million in 2013.

Indonesia and Malaysia together account for 85 percent of the world's palm oil.

Bumper supplies of soybeans for crushing into soyoil could depress prices of the rival edible oil and turn price-sensitive buyers away from palm oil unless its prices fall, too.

"There's a lot of competition from soybean oil. It really depends on the prices. If palm is priced cheap enough, the demand will be there," said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Research in Kuala Lumpur.

Refined palm olein currently trades at a discount of about $90 to soyoil, compared to about $60 at the start of 2014 and $300 in January 2013.

Ng expected palm prices to trade between 2,300 and 2,600 ringgit a tonne for the rest of the year, a little above the current level.

"I don't think it can break out of that range unless something drastic happens to the weather in the U.S. or in the palm oil region," she said.
Other analysts have also turned more bearish. Kenanga Investment Bank's Alan Lim has slashed his forecast for average prices in 2014 to 2,500 ringgit per tonne from 2,800 ringgit, citing lower estimates for soybean oil prices. - Reuters

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #61 on: August 06, 2014, 10:37:35 AM »
Malaysia July palm oil stocks fell to a three-year low

second only to the world's second-largest palm oil producer in Indonesia – Malaysia July palm oil inventories dropped to its lowest level in more than three years, despite the increase in production. Seven farmers, analysts and traders in the survey, Malaysia July palm oil stocks down 3.6% 1.66 million tons last month, to 1.6 million tons. According to Palm oil data, which would be the lowest since February 2011. Surveys also showed that output in July rose 3.2% to 1.62 million tons.      

Malaysia palm oil Board (MPOB) specific data will be released on August 11. Since the United States is expected to yield a record high, and palm oil futures last month in a bear market. Due to oil prices, as an alternative to Palm oil pressure to increase. Netherlands cooperative banks pointed out that cuts the odds of El Nino phenomenon, coupled with the increase in global oilseed production will weigh on prices for at least four quarters ago.      

But Hiro CIMB Futures, Deputy Director Chai said consumption increase may offset production growth led the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "Under the influence of drought in January and February, output in July the seasonal increase is not strong," DBS Vickers analyst Ben Santoso said by telephone. "Poor demand. Given the abundant supply, people actively looking for other vegetable oils. "Malaysia BMD crude palm oil futures tumbled on July 31 to 2,246 ringgit per tonne ($ 705), the lowest since August 12.      

The benchmark October crude palm oil futures contract closed down 0.4%, reported 2,258 ringgit a tonne. ** ** Oilseed supply data compiled by Bloomberg show that soybean oil this year than the average premium is $ 93 per ton of palm oil, far less than in 2013 from $ 244.      CBOT soyoil futures on August 4 fell to 35.63 cents a pound, the lowest price since October 2009, soybean futures also fell to $ 10.54 a bushel, the lowest since October 2010. United States Department of agriculture, United States soybean production will reach 3.8 billion bushels, all-time high boosted global stocks to 85.31 million tons. Australia Weather Bureau said July 29, about 50% chance occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon.      June the met Office thinks likely to reach 70%. Survey, Malaysia July 2% to 1.45 million tons of palm oil exports will be lower than in June. SGS ship survey institutions were of the view that exports in July fell 2.8% to 1.35 million tons, even need 12%.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #62 on: August 06, 2014, 08:48:04 PM »
Malaysia Delays Full Implementation of B5 Biodiesel Mandate

Malaysia, the largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, delayed the nationwide implementation of its biodiesel mandate to the end of the year, said Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister.

The B5 program will be completed by December instead of an original target of July, doubling average monthly consumption, Uggah said in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg questions. The delay was because construction of 15 blending facilities in the states of Sabah and Sarawak and the federal territory of Labuan in East Malaysia were taking longer than expected, he said.

Palm, the world’s most consumed cooking oil, has declined 16 percent in 2014 and slumped to the lowest level in a year in Kuala Lumpur today as the U.S. government predicts record global inventories of soybeans, used to make an alternative oil. Prices have also been pressured by the failure of Indonesia and Malaysia to boost use in biofuels, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., on June 26.

The government and the palm oil board are “monitoring the progress of the construction of the blending facilities and exploring ways to accelerate completion,” Uggah said. “Full implementation of the B5 program is expected to consume 500,000 tons of methyl ester annually.” The country is set to produce 19.5 million tons of palm this year, the government says.

Futures declined as much as 0.7 percent to 2,239 ringgit ($700) a ton today on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest level since Aug. 12. News of the delay added to the bearish outlook for palm oil, said Chandran Sinnasamy, Kuala Lumpur-based head of trading at LT International Futures Sdn.

Missed Expectations

B5, which involves blending 5 percent of palm methyl ester with 95 percent of diesel petroleum, was completed in March in Peninsular Malaysia, Uggah said. Monthly usage will average 41,667 tons upon full implementation compared with 20,833 tons now, Uggah said. This will increase to 58,333 tons with the start of the B7 program in the first quarter, he said.

The government and the palm oil board are in discussions with engine manufacturers and automobile associations to get warranties for B7, he said.

Indonesia in September last year also boosted the amount of biodiesel blended with fuel to 10 percent from 7.5 percent and power plants had to blend 20 percent from January.

The country’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months was roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier and full-year consumption will not increase, Mistry said at a conference in Mumbai in June. Domestic consumption of biodiesel is not as good as expected, Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Palm Oil Association, told reporters on July 21.

Indonesia and Malaysia produce 86 percent of world supply.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #63 on: August 06, 2014, 08:50:36 PM »
Palm oil reserves in Malaysia seen declining to three-year low

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 6): Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the top supplier after
Indonesia, probably dropped to the lowest in more than three years in July
even as production increased.
Inventories lost 3.6 percent to 1.6 million metric tons from 1.66 million tons in
June, according to the median of seven estimates from planters, analysts and
traders compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest level for reserves since
February 2011, according to Palm Oil Board data. Production climbed 3.2
percent to 1.62 million tons, the survey showed. The board is scheduled to
release the figures on Aug. 11.
Futures entered a bear market last month after the U.S. predicted a record
soybean crop. That pushed down soybean oil, increasing pressure on its
substitute palm. Reduced odds on El Nino and rising global oilseed output will
weigh on prices until at least the fourth quarter, Rabobank International says.
Higher consumption in Malaysia because of the Eid Muslim festival probably
countered increased output, said Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures
Sdn.
“Production isn’t really rising as much as it should be seasonally because of
the dryness that occurred in January and February,” Ben Santoso, an analyst
with DBS Vickers, said by phone in Singapore. “Demand isn’t going anywhere
either. People are actively switching to other vegetable oils given that there’s
plenty of supply out there.”
Futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur tumbled to 2,246
ringgit ($705) a ton on July 31, the lowest level since Aug. 12, and traded at
2,258 ringgit yesterday.
Oilseed Supplies
Soybean oil’s premium to palm averaged $93 a ton this year, compared with $244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Soybean
oil in Chicago slumped to 35.63 cents a pound on Aug. 4, the lowest level since October 2009, as soybeans fell to $10.54 a bushel, the
lowest since October 2010.
Farmers in the U.S. will harvest 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans, boosting world inventories to a record 85.31 million tons, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates. The odds of El Nino, which brings drought to Asia and heavy rains in South America, are about 50
percent after parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean cooled, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said July 29. The bureau had put the chances
at 70 percent in June.
Palm exports fell 2 percent from June to 1.45 million tons, the survey showed. Total shipments retreated 2.8 percent to 1.35 million tons
even as sales to the European Union climbed 12 percent, surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Sdn. says.
Export Demand
Shipments to Europe should further increase as palm’s discount to Brent in London, a crude oil benchmark, will boost demand from
biodiesel makers, said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.
Dry weather in Peninsular Malaysia in mid-2012 and 2013, and the first quarter of this year will hurt yields in the last quarter or the
beginning of 2015 due to the lagged impact of water deficits on palms, Ling Ah Hong, director of Ganling Sdn., a Kuala Lumpur-based
consultant, said April 28.
Some planters rushed to harvest more fruits before the Eid holidays last week, that mark the end of the Muslim fasting month of
Ramadan, to make up for the loss in working hours, said Chai from CIMB Futures.

Written by Bloomberg
Wednesday, 06 August 2014 08:57

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #64 on: August 07, 2014, 06:11:28 PM »
Palm Oil Prices About to Hit Rock Bottom

Last week, I discussed that a potential opportunity in the palm oil industry was brewing.

The substance is used in a variety of popular consumer products – from cooking oil and shortening, to soaps and cosmetics.

So demand for the commodity certainly isn’t going to end anytime soon.

Well, the latest activity in the palm oil market indicates that now could be the perfect time to jump on board.

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to gain exposure to the industry, now’s your chance! (Hint: The opportunity stems from a weather anomaly that’s wreaking havoc across the globe.)

Palm Oil About to Hit Bottom

Despite the obvious demand for the commodity, palm oil futures have been on a downward slope for the last five months.

Take a look at this daily chart of the November futures contract to see what I mean. It’s now trading close to 12-month lows – after reaching an 18-month high in March.

November Palm Oil Futures

What’s with the decline? A number of fundamental factors have put downward pressure on prices.
•To start with, there’s concern over demand from the world’s top-two importers, China and India – amid robust exports from Malaysia and Indonesia (which supply 86% of the world’s palm oil).
•The recent strength in the Malaysian ringgit has also dampened buying interest for the ringgit-priced palm feedstock.
•We’re seeing ample supplies of competing oils (such as soy oil). And palm oil’s price advantage over other edible oils is narrowing.
•Finally, the likelihood of the weather phenomenon, El Niño, hitting has cooled. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts the chances of this happening at about 50% – down from its 90% March prediction. El Niño is an abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in some areas and flooding in others. (Founder Robert Williams discussed how the absent El Niño event is at the root of California’s record drought.) Well, the event is also associated with drier weather in Asia, which would hit palm fruit harvests. So a lower probability of El Niño is reducing investors’ bullish bets.

I’m convinced, however, that a palm oil reversal is close at hand. Let’s look more closely at the facts to see why…

An Immediate Reversal on the Horizon

The recent uptick in palm oil production was, in part, due to early harvesting before plantation workers went on holiday for the Eid al-Fitr celebrations last week – marking the end of Ramadan.

Furthermore, we’re witnessing falling inventories in Malaysia – along with rising domestic demand in Indonesia.

Also, a key factor driving palm oil consumption is the escalating demand for biofuels. And Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate was raised in August 2013 to a minimum 10% biofuel in diesel from the previous 3% to 10% range. The mandate was doubled to 20% for the power industry.

To top it off, while the chances for El Niño (at 50%) are slimmer than previously thought, an event developing this year can’t be conclusively ruled out. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is more confident in an event occurring. It reports a 70% chance of an El Niño in summer and 80% during the fall and early winter.

All of these developments point to increased palm oil prices in the immediate future. Here are a few ways you can profit from the uptick…

Gaining Direct Access to Palm Oil Profits

Access to the palm oil markets is easier than one may think, and you don’t even need to go to Malaysia or Indonesia to trade it.

Palm oil futures trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in cash-settled, USD-denominated contracts benchmarking Malaysian palm oil. Futures are listed monthly – on the third, fourth, and fifth forward months – then alternate months going out 24 months.

Here’s what to look out for in the near term.

As for what this year’s El Niño has in store, all eyes will be focused on two dates…

On August 11, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release data on end-July palm oil trade statistics. And two cargo surveyors – Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance – will report palm oil export data from August 1 to August 10.

On August 12, the next official update from the Australian government on El Niño is expected to hit.

Any bullish news should resonate in the futures market almost immediately.

Good investing,

Shelley Goldberg

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #65 on: August 09, 2014, 09:39:38 AM »
VEGOILS-Palm oil slides to 1-year low as higher production weighs

* Palm oil drops to 1-year low on production outlook

* Growers estimate output rose almost 7 percent in July (Updates closing prices)

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped to a one-year low on Friday with the market on track for a fifth week of declines in six as expectations of higher production pressured prices.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers, estimated that palm oil production in the world's second largest producer, rose 6.9 percent to 1.68 million tonnes in July, traders said. This is above a Reuters forecast of 4.9 percent growth.

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.8 percent at 2,235 ringgit ($697) per tonne. Traded volume stood at 39,121 lots of 25 tonnes. Earlier in the session, it fell to 2,231 ringgit a tonne, the lowest since Aug. 12 last year.

"Production in July could exceed what has been estimated by the association," said one Kuala Lumpur-based trader. "We think it will be close to double-digit growth and at the same time fresh demand is lacking."

Malaysian palm oil output is likely to steadily rise in the months ahead, traders said

Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, is due to release official data on end-July palm stocks, production and exports on Monday.

A Reuters survey pegged end-July stocks at a more-than-three-year low of 1.64 million tonnes, although market players warn that a surge in palm output will push up stockpiles in the following months.

Higher production of palm oil will add to global edible oil supplies with output of rival soybeans likely to climb to near-record level in the United States.

Favourable crop weather in the U.S. Midwest has also fuelled expectations that the U.S Department of Agriculture will raise estimates of soybeans in its monthly report next Tuesday.

Palm oil is expected to break a resistance at 2,268 ringgit per tonne and rise more to 2,298 ringgit, following the completion of a five-wave cycle, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

For a 24-hr palm oil chart analysis:

(http://s902.photobucket.com/user/kftham/media/FCPO20140808105440.png.html)

The U.S. soyoil contract for December fell 0.4 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange finished largely unchanged.

Brent crude oil rose by more than $1 towards $107 on Friday after the United States approved air strikes against Islamist militants in Iraq, raising concerns over the security of oil supplies from OPEC's second largest producer. ($1 = 3.2060 ringgit)

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #66 on: August 11, 2014, 01:02:54 PM »
MALAYSIA AUG. 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 347,094 (-22.2%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #67 on: August 11, 2014, 01:07:01 PM »
(BFW) MPOB Says Malaysia July Palm Oil Stocks 1.68m Tons; Est. 1 .6m
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 BN 08/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS FALL 2.3% M/M: MPOB
 BN 08/11 04:32*MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.45M TONS; EST. 1.45M TONS 
 BN 08/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA JULY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT RISES 6.1% M/M: MPOB 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MALAYSIA JULY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.67M TONS; EST. 1.62M 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL STOCKS RISE 1.5% M/M: MPOB 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL STOCKS 1.68M TONS; EST. 1.6M

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #68 on: August 11, 2014, 01:11:21 PM »
MPOB Says Malaysia July Palm Oil Stocks 1.68m Tons; Est. 1.6m 2014-08-11 04:36:13.831 GMT

By Ranjeetha Pakiam     

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, rose 1.5% to 1.68m metric tons in July from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
 
• Output gained 6.1% to 1.67m tons, while exports dropped 2.3% to 1.45m tons
• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.6m tons, production at 1.62m tons and shipments at 1.45m tons

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #69 on: August 12, 2014, 10:10:54 AM »
Palm oil to test supports, rise

August 11, 2014:   
Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply lower on Monday after a rise in end-stocks and a possible bumper soyabean crop looming large.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia were 1.5 per cent higher with strong output further adding pressure on stocks, according to a monthly report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Cargo surveyor SGS estimated that exports during August 1-10 fell by almost 20 per cent compared with the previous month. CPO active month October futures are sharply lower after breaking key supports on the downside moving lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, a close below MYR 2,245/tonne could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200 levels.

CPO futures need to overcome MYR 2,252 levels and close above it for any meaningful upward correction in the coming sessions.

Such a retracement could see prices testing 2,320-25 levels on the upside subsequently where it might find strong resistance again. Some of the near-term targets are at 2,135 followed by an extremely strong support at 2,095-97 levels.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to MYR 2,575-2,600/tonne materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,135 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating it is oversold and a possible upward correction in the offing.

The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could hint at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then pullback again.

Supports are at MYR 2,165, 2,135 and 2,085. Resistances are at MYR 2,227, 2,252 and 2,325.

(The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is a risk of loss in trading.)

(This article was published on August 11, 2014)

Offline jat

  • Civilian
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #70 on: August 12, 2014, 02:22:58 PM »
Palm oil to test supports, rise

August 11, 2014:   
Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply lower on Monday after a rise in end-stocks and a possible bumper soyabean crop looming large.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia were 1.5 per cent higher with strong output further adding pressure on stocks, according to a monthly report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Cargo surveyor SGS estimated that exports during August 1-10 fell by almost 20 per cent compared with the previous month. CPO active month October futures are sharply lower after breaking key supports on the downside moving lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, a close below MYR 2,245/tonne could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200 levels.

CPO futures need to overcome MYR 2,252 levels and close above it for any meaningful upward correction in the coming sessions.

Such a retracement could see prices testing 2,320-25 levels on the upside subsequently where it might find strong resistance again. Some of the near-term targets are at 2,135 followed by an extremely strong support at 2,095-97 levels.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to MYR 2,575-2,600/tonne materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,135 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating it is oversold and a possible upward correction in the offing.

The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could hint at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then pullback again.

Supports are at MYR 2,165, 2,135 and 2,085. Resistances are at MYR 2,227, 2,252 and 2,325.

(The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is a risk of loss in trading.)

(This article was published on August 11, 2014)


Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #71 on: August 13, 2014, 10:31:36 AM »
Volatile CPO prices and higher stockpiles are likely to impact profits

PETALING JAYA: The fortunes of oil palm plantation companies in the second half of this year are uncertain given the volatile crude palm oil (CPO) prices amid escalating domestic palm oil stockpile, which is slated to re-visit the historic high of two million tonnes by year-end.

CPO futures is currently trading at a one-year low at RM2,190 per tonne level while the end-July palm oil stocks stood at 1.68 milion tonnes.

Based on historic records, the next few months is expected to see high production of CPO and analysts expect the stockpile to hit 1.8 million tonnes by the end of this month.

Analysts have pegged CPO price to trade between RM2,100 and RM2,400 per tonne for the rest this month.

“But nobody dares predict the price beyond the next three months because there could be some catalyst to increase demand such as the Government’s initiative to implement the nationwide bio-diesel mandate,” said an analyst.

The mandate is under the B-5 programme where 5% of palm oil methyl ester will be required to be added on diesel.

Among plantation companies, a mere RM100 increase in the CPO price per tonne could translate into additional “hefty” contributions to group profits.

Sime Darby Bhd had said that every RM100 per tonne change in the CPO price could result in an “addition or reduction of RM250mil” to its group profit.

While for Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), every RM100 change in the CPO price would result in an addition or reduction of RM100mil.

However, despite the hazy earnings outlook for planters in the second half of this year, Kenanga Research believes the upcoming quarter-two result season in end-August should not see any significant negative surprises for the plantation sector.

It expects most plantation companies’ second quarter earnings results due end of this month to meet consensus estimates.

“This is because the first half CPO price at RM2,633 per tonne was close to consensus average CPO prices at RM2,650 per tonne,” the research unit said in its latest plantation report.

“Additionally, we expect at least 20% earnings growth year-on-year (yoy) for planters due to better CPO prices (+11% yoy) and higher CPO production (+15% yoy).

“As a result, we do not expect any significant downside in planters’ share prices in the near term,” said Kenanga Research.

Kenanga Research has reiterated a neutral call on the plantation sector with both 2014-2015 average CPO price forecasts unchanged at RM2,500 per tonne.

Yesterday, most plantation stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed lower on bearish outlook with Kuala Lumpur Kepong 10 sen lower at RM23.70, while Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd lost two sen to RM3.97, Sime Darby Bhd eased two sen to RM9.49 and IOI Corp was unchanged at RM5.

Meanwhile, Singapore-based Rabobank food and agribusiness research and advisory head Pawan Kumar said CPO prices may be pressured due to subdued demand as well as the easy availability of other vegetable oils.

He said at a briefing here that domestic palm oil stocks could decline after October as palm oil traders did not like to hold on to inventory.

“We’re looking at RM2,400 to RM2,500 per tonne average for this year; now is the best time to buy,” Pawan said, adding that Rabobank had a “fairly neutral” view on CPO prices this year.

This is in contrast to soybean, where prices are expected to fall to US$1,020 per tonne in the fourth quarter from US$1,200 per tonne in the current quarter.

Pawan pointed out that plantation firms should keep an eye out for an El Nino alert this year as “this weather phenomenon would have a negative impact on production by 2%-15% next year.”

In the case of a severe El Nino occurrence, then this would be positive for CPO prices next year, he said.

Pawan expects CPO prices to trade in the range of RM2,600 for the first quarter next year and RM2,700 in the second quarter. CPO prices fell to the lowest year-to-date on Aug 11 to RM2,177 per tonne, an 18.13% drop.

Meanwhile, CIMB Research has projected CPO price to trade in the lower range of RM2,100-RM2,400 per tonne for the remainder of this month.

“We project palm oil stocks in Malaysia to begin their seasonal climb, rising 9% month-on-month to 1.84 million tonnes, driven by higher production and weaker exports due to competition from other edible oils,” said the research unit in its plantation report.

Over the past month, the key bearish factor, in the form of higher global oilseed supplies, had dampened soybean and rapeseed prices, which in turn, had depressed CPO prices as they competed for market share, said CIMB Research.

The bullish factors supporting CPO price have weakened as weather experts recently downgraded the probability of El Nino and biodiesel progress in Indonesia.

Furthermore, the research unit said: “There may be downside risk to our 2014 average price forecast of RM2,700 per tonne as average CPO price achieved in the first seven month of 2014 was only RM2,577 per tonne.”

Hence, CIMB Research believes the CPO price would need to stay attractive against other edible oils in order to boost exports so that palm oil stock levels in Malaysia and Indonesia will remain manageable.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #72 on: August 14, 2014, 09:54:29 PM »
Palm slumps to five-year low

Palm oil extended losses to the lowest level since 2009 on concern that record global reserves of soybeans used to produce an alternative oil may curb demand for the commodity used in everything from food to biofuels.


Futures dropped as much as 2.8 per cent to RM2,115 (US$665) a metric tonne on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest level since October 2009, before trading at RM2,131 at 4.42pm in Kuala Lumpur. Prices are down 20 per cent this year, heading for the third annual decline in four years.


Palm, the world’s most used cooking oil, entered a bear market last month as favorable weather in the US boosted the outlook for soybean crops estimated to be the largest on record. Soybeans, corn and wheat are trading near their lowest levels since at least 2010, cutting world food costs measured by the United Nations to a six-month low in July.


“The discount of palm to soybean oil is still very narrow and that will add more pressure on palm,” said Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures Sdn Bhd in Kuala Lumpur. “As palm production continues to rise until September, we’ll have further pressure” on prices, he said.


Soybean oil declined as much as two per cent to 33.62 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade, the lowest level since September 2009. Soybeans slumped to US$10.3875 a bushel, the lowest since September 2010.


The spread between palm and soybean oil needs to widen to between US$120 and US$130 a tonne for palm to be attractive to users again, Chai said. Palm’s discount to soybean oil shrunk to about US$70 a tonne today from an average of US$244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


US farmers will harvest a record 3.816 billion bushels this year, compared with 3.8 billion (103.4 million tonnes) estimated in July, the US Department of Agriculture said on August 12. World inventories before the start of the 2015 Northern Hemisphere harvests will rise 28 per cent to a record 85.62 million tonnes, the agency estimates.


Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the biggest producer after Indonesia, increased last month from the lowest level since June 2013 as production rose more than expected. While stockpiles at 1.68 million tonnes were lower than the record of 2.63 million tonnes in December 2012, expectations of rising output adding to reserves may pressure prices, Chai said. Output is typically highest from July to October each year.


Production in Malaysia may reach a record 19.7 million tonnes to 19.9 million tonnes, while Indonesia’s output may total an all- time high of 30.5 million tonnes or more this year, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for 86 per cent of world supplies.


Refined palm oil for January delivery fell 2.2 per cent to close at 5,440 yuan (US$884) a tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the lowest since September 2013. Soybean oil slumped 3.2 per cent to end at 6,112 yuan, the lowest since March 2009.-- Bloomberg

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #73 on: August 15, 2014, 01:19:18 PM »
Malaysia Aug. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 570,761(-15.25%) Tons: Intertek

Offline SodaLite

  • Baron
  • *****
  • Posts: 2,936
  • United Of Small Fishes (Beware of CON stock)
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #74 on: August 15, 2014, 01:32:14 PM »
my fren 50 acres palm tree sapling he said he rather let the sapling rotten bo..... palm oil industry really no value now.... plant rumput lagi can make landscape  :D

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #75 on: August 15, 2014, 01:50:47 PM »
BMD crude palm oil futures rangebound in downlink

Dow Jones Singapore on August 15, Ambank said in a report on Friday expected Malaysia rangebound BMD crude palm oil futures Friday, or slightly higher, because price had slumped to five-year lows on Thursday, although, on the whole, due to weak oil prices and soybean harvest this year, sentiment remained on the air.      

A Kuala Lumpur, brokers say, is expected in the first half of August palm oil export data came as traders expected cautious trading is expected to temporarily support at 2,115 ringgit a tonne.      

On Thursday, the benchmark October crude palm oil futures contract closed down 2% to 2,133 ringgit a tonne. CBOT9 soybean oil contracts in electronic trading from roughly near the 33.53 cents per pound.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #76 on: August 16, 2014, 03:53:34 PM »
CPO price war in the offing?

ANOTHER palm oil price war between top world producers, Malaysia and Indonesia is in the offing, says industry observers.

Early this month, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) in an attempt to boost exports has demanded the Indonesian government to slash the refined bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm oil export duty to 0%. And, the Indonesian government is believed to be assessing the proposal.

Currently, Indonesia charges a tariff up to 12.5% on refined palm oil exports while Malaysia applies from 0% up to 8.5% duty on the export of similar products.

The Jakarta Post reported that Gapki made the demand following a significant drop in palm oil exports to India in the first half of this year. Indonesia’s outbound palm oil shipments to India plunged by 37%, its highest level, to 2.12 million tonnes from January to June.

 
 
 

Palm Oil Refiners Association chief executive officer Mohammad Jaaffar Ahmad tells StarBizWeek that for Indonesia to “mimic” Malaysia’s current zero refined palm oil export tax structure certainly spell bad news for local palm oil exporters and refiners.

“Any arbitrary decision by Indonesia to re-structure its palm oil export tax structure will undermine the stability of CPO prices vis-à-vis processed palm oil prices for both countries,” he adds.

In addition, further reduction in Indonesian processed palm oil duties could result in the widening (increase) of the tax differentials with Malaysian products.

“Malaysian palm oil exporters and refiners will be in the danger zone should the duty differential widens to more than 3%,” says Jaaffar, adding: “Once it widens by over 3%, Indonesian players will start having a big advantage in their cost of production (COP) at about US$30 per tonne onwards.”

So far this year, the tax differential is between 1.5 to 2%, which is good for Malaysian refiners and exporters to compete and also, provide a level playing field for both Malaysian and Indonesian players.

Back in 2012, the Indonesia’s COP advantage was around US$50 to US$60 per tonne, which makes it almost impossible for Malaysian refiners and exporters to compete globally especially in price-sensitive markets like India, Pakistan and China.

“So it is important for the Malaysian gazetted CPO FOB price to be all inclusive, flexible and transparent and importantly tracking the Indonesian CPO gazetted price,” he adds.

However, if the tax differential widens to 5.5% to 8%, which is equivalent to a production cost advantage of about US$55 to US$80 per tonne – a similar situation in 2011 and 2012 – Jaaffar expects that there will be another round of price wars between Malaysia and Indonesia, and “the sure loser is Malaysia.”

“The international palm oil prices will be dampen as both Malaysia and Indonesia are price takers and not price movers,” he points out.

Back in September 2011, Indonesia attacked the Malaysian palm oil industry by way of introducing a new palm oil export duty tax structure. The palm oil export tax duty of RBD palm olein in bulk was drastically slashed to 7% from 15%, but retained its CPO export duty at 15% to boost the export of its processed oils.

Jaaffar recalls that many local palm oil refiners were among those badly hit by the move.

“2012 was particularly a misery year as many Malaysian palm oil exporters are not able to compete with the low Indonesian palm oil export duty. For one whole year, we have no response on how to counter the situation.

“As a result, we lost almost all major export markets except for oleochemicals,” says Jaaffar adding that local palm oil industry suffered severe losses estimated at RM9bil in terms of palm oil export revenue in 2012.

Malaysia on Jan 1, 2013, however, countered the Indonesian palm oil export duty regime by lowering its export duty between 4.5% to 8.5% – which had been unchanged since 1970s – and also suspended all CPO duty-free export quota.

“Last year was indeed a recovery year whereby local palm oil exporter managed to gain back all our lost export markets in 2012. But unfortunately, in terms of exports revenue, we are still bleeding in 2013,” adds Jaaffar.

In 2013, Malaysia’s palm oil export revenue stood at RM61bil, down almost 20bil from RM80bil back in 2011.

“In terms of price, the palm oil market still has yet to fully recover from the after-effect of the Indonesian export duty structure.

“In fact, it was a lose-lose situation for both Indonesia and Malaysia in terms of export earnings for a duopolistic producers. Both countries produce about 85% of total palm oil production in the world. I am sure, the Indonesian are losing the same amount or value comparatively.

“Both Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil are price takers rather than price makers,” explained Jaafar.

Meanwhile, a market trader points out that the unilateral decision of Indonesia has practically destroy the price of CPO from the high average of RM3,219 in 2011 to RM2,371 in 2013, by about 25% or almost RM850 per tonne.

“If we compare with RBD palm olein, the differential percentage is much more compared with CPO, by almost RM1,000 per tonne.

Jaaffar says there is another misconception that the refiners would like to have cheaper CPO to have bigger refining margins.

“The truth is refiners are margin players. In fact, we make more money when the CPO price is high. In 2011, when the price of CPO is high, we are able to get a spread of RM288 per tonne but when the CPO price is low in 2014, we only managed to get a spread of RM154.”

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #77 on: August 20, 2014, 11:12:14 PM »
MALAYSIA'S AUG. 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 822,026 (-5.4%) TONS: INTERTEK

Offline Ļaughing Ģor

  • Global Moderator
  • Marquess
  • *****
  • Posts: 17,755
    • Investlah - Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #78 on: August 20, 2014, 11:14:21 PM »
my fren 50 acres palm tree sapling he said he rather let the sapling rotten bo..... palm oil industry really no value now.... plant rumput lagi can make landscape  :D

My friend rubber tree also left untapped.
Can someone to give me a Loan and then leave me Alone?

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #79 on: August 21, 2014, 08:38:04 AM »
My friend rubber tree also left untapped.

My father's rubber estate start do the replanting process since early this year.  :P

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #80 on: August 21, 2014, 02:44:08 PM »
Pressure on palm oil price




SOURCE:
Bloomberg

{ JUMP TO
PREV STORY PUBLISHED: Aug 21, 2014 10:07am

UPDATED: Aug 21, 2014 10:07am
Pressure on palm oil price


KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 21:

Palm oil’s rout is set to deepen with prices extending declines to less than RM2,000 a metric tonne on ample global supplies of edible oils, according to Wayne Gordon, an analyst at UBS AG.

“The overall vegetable oil sector is effectively swimming in supply, or will be swimming in supply by the time we get to the end of the year,” Singapore-based Gordon said in a phone interview.

The most-active price on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell to RM2,045 yesterday, the lowest level since October 2009. It last traded below RM2,000 in March of that year.

Palm oil tumbled into a bear market last month as favourable weather in the US spurred forecasts for a record crop of soybeans, which can be crushed to provide an alternative oil.

Palm oil also slumped as demand for biofuels missed expectations, forecasts for an El Nino weather pattern, which can disrupt supplies, were scaled back, and the ringgit strengthened.

Lower prices will help keep global food costs in check, while hurting earnings at growers including Kuala Lumpur-based Sime Darby Bhd.

Palm oil needs to decline by more than soybean oil to attract increased demand from India, the world’s biggest importer, according to Gordon, who’s tracked the commodity since 2009. Further losses in soy oil may weigh on palm, he said.

Palm oil ended 0.9% lower at RM2,049 yesterday, taking losses this year to 23%.

Soybeans fell to US$10.35 (RM32.80) a bushel in Chicago, the lowest since September 2010, while soy oil traded at 32.76 cents a pound, the lowest since March 2009.

Palm oil’s discount to soyoil was at US$87.48 a tonne yesterday, compared with an average of US$244 last year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.

The US soybean crop is expected to rise to a record 3.816 billion bushels this year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said last week.

Losses in the oilseed’s price this week came as pod counts from an annual field tour across the world’s biggest producer signaled a bumper crop.

Reports from the first three days of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour showed higher tallies in Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa and South Dakota.

Malaysia, the largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, was delaying the nationwide implementation of a biodiesel mandate to the end of the year, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas said this month.

Indonesia’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months of this year is roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier, and full-year consumption won’t increase, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd, said in June.

Malaysia’s ringgit climbed 3.2% this year, Asia’s strongest performance after Indonesia’s rupiah, as the Southeast Asian country’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in six quarters in the three months to June and current-account data beat estimates.

A stronger ringgit makes palm oil purchases more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Global ending stockpiles of palm oil will increase 10% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2014-2015, according to a forecast from the USDA.

Indonesia and Malaysia account for about 86% of the world crop, with the oil crushed from fresh-fruit bunches and harvested year-round.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #81 on: August 25, 2014, 02:41:23 PM »
Malaysia Aug. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 986,931 Tons (-15.3%) : ITS

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #82 on: August 27, 2014, 02:55:27 PM »
Palm Seen by Mistry at Risk of Dropping Toward Output Costs

Palm oil may extend losses from the lowest level since 2009 until prices approach the cost at which growers in Asia produce the world’s most-consumed cooking oil, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.

“We know from experience that during bear markets, the price tends to gravitate toward the cost of production,” Mistry said in e-mailed replies to questions, without giving a price target or timeframe. Private-sector estates in Malaysia and Indonesia have costs of about 1,500 ringgit ($475) to 1,600 ringgit a metric ton, Mistry said. Futures in Kuala Lumpur closed at 2,012 ringgit a ton yesterday.

Palm entered a bear market last month on swelling global supplies of edible oils, including what is set to be a record soybean harvest in the U.S. Futures also slumped as demand for biofuels missed expectations and as forecasters reduced odds for the onset of El Nino, which can disrupt supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest producers. The decline will help curb global food costs, while hurting earnings at growers.

“The world is awash with vegetable oils,” said Mistry, who’s traded oils for more than three decades and addresses conferences on the outlook for supply, demand and prices. “So, it is not difficult to guess where prices will end up.”

Lower Prices
Forecasts made in June would have to be scaled down, wrote Mistry, who is scheduled to speak in Shanghai on Sept. 15. In June, he said in Mumbai that palm could climb to 2,800 ringgit by December should an El Nino occur from mid-August. He also said palm may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,500 ringgit for a few weeks, and risked rising to 2,600 ringgit if a dry period in Asia persisted.

Futures fell 7 percent in July and extended declines this month, dropping to 1,954 ringgit on Aug. 25, the lowest since March 2009. Prices rose 0.7 percent to 2,026 ringgit by the midday break in Kuala Lumpur today, reducing this year’s loss to 24 percent.

Indonesia and Malaysia account for 86 percent of global supplies, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Costs of output at one large state-linked plantation in Malaysia are as much as 1,800 ringgit a ton, Mistry wrote.

“The absence of El Nino has been a huge disappointment for palm bulls,” said Mistry. “However, we must always remember -- the seeds of the next bull market are sown in the current bear market.”

Rebound Forecast
UBS AG, Standard Chartered Plc and CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. are among forecasters seeing a price rebound, and futures trade higher in 2015 than for November. Palm may rally to 2,200 ringgit to 2,400 ringgit late in the fourth quarter as users rebuild reserves and biofuel demand rises on cheaper feedstock, Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB, said in an Aug. 24 report.

Prices may improve in the fourth quarter as inventories tighten, according to Abah Ofon, a Singapore-based analyst at Standard Chartered. Futures may recover to 2,200 ringgit over 12 months after dropping as low as 1,850 ringgit in the near term, UBS analysts led by Wayne Gordon said.

Global production of seven major oilseeds will be larger than forecast last month as consumption is set to trail output for a third year, Hamburg-based researcher Oil World said yesterday. Production will reach a record 507.2 million tons, 2.2 million tons higher than forecast five weeks ago and 18.1 million tons more than the previous all-time high last year.

“Palm oil production has also surprised us on the higher side,” said Mistry. Malaysia’s output climbed 6.6 percent to 10.7 million tons in the first seven months of the year from the same period in 2013, government data show. In June, Mistry said Indonesia may produce 30.5 million tons or more this year, as Malaysia’s output totals 19.7 million to 19.9 million tons.

Indonesia’s biodiesel usage may be 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons this year, missing industry expectations, Pawan Kumar, Rabobank International’s head of food and agribusiness research advisory, Southeast Asia and India, said on Aug. 12.

“A great amount of the current pain in the palm market has been inflicted by the failure of Indonesia to fulfill its proclaimed palm biodiesel mandate,” Mistry said. “When you promise the market something and then do not perform, the market punishes you.”


Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #83 on: August 29, 2014, 01:55:49 PM »
Indonesian palm oil export tax will be in September down to 9%

On Thursday, the world's number one producer and exporter of palm oil - Indonesia lowered the CPO export tax.
The Indonesian government's announcement shows that September's CPO export duty will be reduced to 9 percent, down from 10.5 percent in August.

Offline bourse

  • Companion of Honour
  • ***
  • Posts: 615
When oil palm is right for picking
« Reply #84 on: September 01, 2014, 02:05:38 PM »
http://www.thestar.com.my/Lifestyle/Features/2014/09/01/Colours-of-distinction-When-oil-palm-is-right-for-picking/


Currently, most of the palm fruit harvested in Malaysia and Indonesia are of the nigrescens variety. These fruits basically turn from black to dark purple at the apex of their ripening, hardly a drastic change visually.

However, in the rare virescens oil palm variety, fruits change colour from green to bright orange as it ripens, giving a much clearer indication to harvesters.

The current average palm oil yield is four tonnes of oil per hectare per year.

Taking the initial hectarage planted with the virescens to be around 20,000ha, even a 1% increase in yield can result in an additional 800 tonnes of oil a year, which brings an added value of RM2mil a year.

With growing world population (estimated at eight billion people within the next 15 years), there is mounting pressure for agricultural land to meet increasing demand for food worldwide. The MPOB team’s discoveries may help prevent wild habitats from being converted to more agriculture land.
You can't control the market, but you can control the decisions you make about the money that you have.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #85 on: September 03, 2014, 01:24:18 PM »
Malaysia’s Aug. Palm Oil Exports 1,282,597 (-5.01%) Tons, SGS Reports

Malaysia’s Aug. Palm Oil Exports 1,288,117 (-4.83%) Tons: Intertek

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #86 on: September 03, 2014, 05:07:36 PM »
Averting Price War

WIN-WIN SITUATION: Malaysia’s palm oil tax gap must mirror that of Indonesia, says Poram chief

MALAYSIA must get on the dance floor and tango with Indonesia to avoid a price war, said Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) chief executive officer Mohammad Jaaffar Ahmad.

Last month, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association reportedly urged its government to slash refined palm oil export duty from 12.5 per cent to zero. This would further widen the export tax gap between its crude and refined oils.

Poram has urged the Malaysian government to be vigilant.

“The government must take a more dynamic approach. We cannot afford to repeat the mistake of staying on the sidelines when Indonesia makes a move,” said Jaaffar when asked about the prospects of Indonesia changing its palm oil tax structure.

“The last time Malaysia hesitated in 2012, we fell into a lose-lose situation, of which downstream players bled losses and planters in both countries suffered from a price war.”

Two years ago, Indonesia, in its efforts to boost exports, slashed its refined palm olein tax to seven per cent and retained its crude palm oil (CPO) duty at 15 per cent.

As a result, stakeholders throughout the palm oil value chain in Malaysia took a beating.

At that time, decades-old partnerships between millers and refiners in Malaysia broke down as refiners bled losses for every tonne of CPO refined.

Jaaffar said to stem losses, refiners unwound long-term contracts, which then slowed down purchases and resulted in a rapid build-up of CPO inventories.

This, in turn, caused CPO and crude palm kernel oil prices to tumble, affecting planters in Indonesia and Malaysia.

With cheap CPO and low duty export for packed products, Indonesian exporters sold their products at reduced prices, thus grabbing the market share from refiners in Malaysia.

When Indonesia moved and Malaysia took a wait-and-see approach in 2012, the local palm oil industry lost an estimated RM9 billion in export revenue.

“We cannot afford to remain static again. Ideally, it’s best for Malaysia’s tax gap between crude and refined palm oil to mirror that of Indonesia. If and when Indonesia widens its tax gap, Malaysia must also follow suit.

“We need to move in lockstep with Indonesia, like the way dancers hold hands and do the tango. That way, Malaysia’s refiners can continue to compete on a level playing field and hopefully, oil palm planters in both countries can avoid the dreaded price war.

“The yesteryear thinking of ‘We’re better than the other’ is over. In the spirit of the Asean Economic Community, it’s time for Malaysia and Indonesia to adopt a mutually beneficial approach of ‘We’re better together’.”

He said if Indonesia widens the tax gap between crude and refined oil by a certain percentage, Malaysia’s CPO tax must be immediately amended to match the gap. This will allow oleochemical and specialty fats producers here to also benefit from the competitive prices.

Palm oil prices have been on a downtrend for six months.

Last Friday, the third-month benchmark CPO futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded RM49 lower to close at RM1,930 a tonne, below the psychological RM2,000 level.

On the current downtrend, Jaaffar said it is wrong to assume that refiners and planters are engaged in a zero-sum game.

“It is a misconception that in times of falling CPO prices, refiners are happy at the expense of planters. As refiners, we are margin players. It doesn’t matter if palm oil prices are high or low.

“In fact, everybody will win if the price of CPO is high. That is the role of the refiners in supporting the price of CPO by being able to buy and process every drop of CPO in the country,” he added.

--New Straits Times

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #87 on: September 04, 2014, 11:43:12 PM »
Malaysia's Aug palm stocks seen at 7-month high as output picks up

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of August likely jumped to their loftiest in seven months as higher output due to crop-friendly weather outstripped poor export demand, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.

 Rising stockpiles at the world's No.2 producer of the tropical oil could further drag on benchmark Malaysian prices that have already dropped 25% this year and are currently mired near five-and-a-half-year lows.

 The median survey of five planters, traders and analysts estimate August inventories in Malaysia rose 16.4% from a month ago to 1.96 million tonnes, their highest since January.

 Poll respondents said the rise in stockpiles was due to good weather that encouraged fruit formation as well as better harvesting activity than July as plantation workers returned from their holidays for the Muslim Eid al-Fitr festival.

 The poll showed that output likely rose 15% from a month ago to 1.92 million tonnes in August.

 "There has been a very strong rebound throughout Malaysia for August production," said an official at a plantation firm with estates in Malaysia and Indonesia.

 "Muslim employess returning after holidays, dry weather vanishing and much better rainfall, together with good sunshine hours, has made it a bumper crop throughout Malaysia."

 The poll participants pegged Malaysian palm oil exports at 1.35 million tonnes for August, down 6.7% from July.

 Latest cargo surveyor data show palm oil exports fell about 5% in August, recovering from steeper losses recorded earlier in the month, as a surge in demand from India helped offset weaker imports by China and Europe.

 LOCAL CONSUMPTION

 The median figures from the survey implied domestic consumption in August of about 303,624 tonnes, above the average range between 150,000 and 180,000 tonnes.

 FACTORS TO WATCH

 Forecasts for bumper supplies of rival edible oils and for a bigger Southeast Asian palm output pushed the benchmark palm contract below 2,000 ringgit at the end of August - when prices posted their biggest monthly drop since September 2012.

 Earlier this week, palm prices plunged to RM1,914 (US$602) per tonne - their lowest since early 2009.

 "Let us face the reality that palm output is gaining pace to coincide with the already-spillover supply of global oilseeds. It looks like a perfect storm," said CIMB Futures analyst Hiro Chai in Kuala Lumpur.

 Planters and traders added that crop-friendly weather could pave the way for even bigger palm yields in September and push up stockpiles to above two million tonnes.

 Bigger supply of soybeans for crushing would weaken prices of soyoil and turn price-sensitive buyers away from palm oil.

 Chai added that as competition between edible oils stiffens, palm oil will have to widen its discount to rival soy oil in order to attract a bigger share of global demand.

 Refined palm olein currently trades at around aUS $90 discount to soy oil.

 "Unless palm price correction has reached a level where there is US$150 per tonne discount to soy oil, we shall not see palm prices appealing enough to compete with European rapeseeds and American soy," Chai said. - Reuters

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #88 on: September 04, 2014, 11:54:37 PM »
Palm oil prices if less than RM2000 on October, zero export duties

(4th in Kuala Lumpur) Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) pointed out that, if the palm oil price below RM 2000 per tonne level, the Government in October, is expected to be no introduction of palm oil export tax.  Malaysian Palm Oil Association President Datuk Li yaozu in 2014, after the palm-oil industry-led Forum to the media, said, if the palm oil prices remain at the current level, forecast in October, the operators will not need to pay any Palm oil export tax. In addition, Indonesia in September lowered the export duty to 9%, August's palm oil export duty is 10.5%. Malaysia's September export tax for 4.5%.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #89 on: September 10, 2014, 01:56:18 PM »
Malaysia August Palm Oil Stockpiles 2.05m Tons, MPOB Reports

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.44M TONS
 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.03M TONS
 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.05M TONS


+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Malaysia August Palm Oil Stockpiles 2.05m Tons, MPOB Reports
2014-09-10 04:42:38.556 GMT


By Niluksi Koswanage
     Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia,
world’s second-largest producer, rose 22% to 2.05m metric tons
in Aug. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in
statement today.
  * Output gained 22% to 2.03m tons, while exports dropped 0.4%
    to 1.44m tons
  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
    at 1.95m tons, production at 1.88m tons and shipments at
    1.38m tons

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2014, 09:37:41 AM »
Malaysia's End-August Palm-Oil Stocks 2.1 Million Tons, Highest in 17 Months


SINGAPORE--Malaysia's end-August palm oil stockpiles hit their highest levels in 17 months, rising 22% from end-July to 2.1 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Wednesday.

Sell AAPL Today? I'm Steve Reitmeister with Zacks Investment Research. We're releasing a free AAPL analysis that forecasts where it's heading in 1-3 months.
This prediction model is worth noting because it nearly triples the market's average yearly gain.
Important: A second free report based on that model reveals all of Zacks' MUST-SELL stocks. See if AAPL or any of your holdings are on this list.
Get both free reports right now »
Palm production also rose 22% in August from a month ago to hit 2.0 million tons.

Meanwhile, exports were flat at 1.4 million tons, the board said.

Palm-oil exports have been under pressure due to prospects of an abundant soybean crop this year, which makes soybean oil prices attractive. Supply of other oilseeds have also been healthy.

Malaysia late last week said it would waive an export tax on crude palm-oil for the months of September and October to help stem a sharp decline in prices.

The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:

                            August         July      Change
                                                     On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output     2,031,754     1,665,661    Up 22.0%

Palm Oil Exports          1,437,452     1,443,560    Dn  0.4%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      70,973        75,117    Dn  5.5%
Crude Palm Oil Imports        2,523         7,725    Dn 67.3%

Closing Stocks            2,054,008     1,684,732    Up 21.9%
Crude Palm Oil            1,134,307       895,352    Up 26.7%
Processed Palm Oil          919,701       789,380    Up 16.5%

(All figures are in metric tons)

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2014, 09:39:44 AM »
Malay palm export jump stems blow from stocks data

Palm oil futures tempered losses after export data showed Malaysian exports surging so far this month, following the scrapping of export levies, reducing the blow from a separate report showing inventories at a 17-month high.

Palm oil futures dropped temporarily below 2,000 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur, falling 2%, after the Malaysia Palm Oil Board revealed that Malaysian inventories of the vegetable oil – in crude and processed form combined – had hit 2.05m tonnes last month.

That was up 22% on July's figure – the highest month-on-month increase since 2012 – and represented the highest inventories since March last year.

The figure was also above market expectations for stocks of 1.96m tonnes.

Tax axed

However, futures recovered all but 1 ringgit of their losses, ending at 2,033 ringgit a tonne, as investors digested separate statistics, from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showing a spike in Malaysian palm exports so far this month.

Shipments for the first 10 days of September, at 487,955 tonnes, were 41% higher than in the same period of August , a reflection of Malaysia's decision to scrap export taxes in an effort to support what is a key industry for the country, the second-ranked palm oil producer and exporter, after Indonesia.

Malaysia's government, which had previously proposed a 4.5% level for September, has ditched taxes for this month and next, and said that it will assess later whether duties should be withheld for further months too.

'Extremely encouraging'

The Intertek data were termed "extremely encouraging" by Edward Hugo, analyst at London broker VSA Capital.

"It is clear that the lower prices and the recent removal of Malaysian export tax for September and October are having an impact," he said, adding that "we expect this to continue".

Indeed, Mr Hugo voiced the prospect that a drop in palm oil futures last week to a five-year low of 1,914 ringgit a tonne may have marked a nadir.

"The last few days have seen a slight uptick in pricing and share prices of South East Asian-listed palm oil producers have been positively impacted.

"This may be an indication that we have reached the bottom in the palm oil pricing downturn."

Production record

Exports last month dropped 0.4% month on month to 1.44m tonnes, the weakest August figure since 2010, if dropping less than the market had expected, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed.

However, production hit a record 2.03m tonnes, rising by 22% from July, a far bigger increase than the market had expected, and up 17.1% year on year.

Malaysian palm oil output, which influential analysis group Godrej sees hitting a record 19.7m-19.9m tonnes this year, is so far running 8.1% ahead of last year's production.

However, some believe that Malaysian output, which typically peaks in September-October, will see an unusually large late-year seasonal decline, a hangover from dryness early in 2014.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #92 on: September 13, 2014, 10:14:49 PM »
Open interest on palm oil futures soars as industry, specs bet

The volume of open positions in Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to a record high this week, suggesting the market may be bottoming out after falling to its lowest price in more than five years. Palm oil, which has lost almost a quarter of its value this year, dropped to RM1,914 a tonne last week, the lowest since March, 2009, on expectations of near-record world vegetable oil supplies and slowing demand. But prices have since rebounded to above RM2,050 after the government scrapped export taxes on the oil for September and October in a bid to boost shipments and curb rising stockpiles.

The tax cut also triggered a wave of ownership transfer and position shuffling, with open interest on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange climbing to an all-time high of 287,859 contracts on Wednesday and traded volume last week of nearly 70,000 lots, double the daily average. Open interest refers to the total number of active or outstanding contracts, reflecting the flow of money into a market. Traders say there are a number of reasons behind the upturn in participation. Some plantation companies, worried that palm oil prices may decline below the cost of production at RM1,700 a tonne, have sold part of their output in the futures market while profits are still attainable, traders said. At the same time, refiners have stepped up buying crude palm oil (CPO) to lock in supplies after the government exempted the commodity from export taxes. "Some participants want to lock in prices as they view them as cheap – these are refineries, importers and investors, so we are seeing more people who are long in this market," said Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur. "The demand from overseas investors has increased after Malaysia abolished the export tax." As a direct impact of the tax exemption, Malaysian palm oil exports for September 1-10 rose around 40% from a month ago, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Palm oil is widely used as a cooking oil as well as a renewable fuel, so recent gyrations in the price spread between it and substitute products such as soybean oil and gas oil have also triggered an uptick in interest. "Some of the spreads between palm oil and other vegetable oils or gasoil are so wide now that you might get speculators taking reasonably large positions, given the dislocation in palm oil prices relative to everything else," said one Melbourne-based fund manager. He declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media. "Energy guys are certainly looking at it and saying our positioning in and around that market should be four times bigger because your downside from that level is not that much but your upside from that price is quite substantial." The spread between Malaysian crude palm oil and gasoil quoted in Singapore widened to a 6-year high of around US$260 (RM832.35) a tonne in August from US$62 a tonne earlier in the year. Similarly, the gap between palm oil and soybean oil prices grew to more than US$90 a tonne in late August from around US$40 in the middle of that month as palm oil values dropped more than soy oil prices. But since September 1, palm oil prices have risen more than 5% compared to a roughly 2% decline in soyoil.

A tendency for palm oil prices to rally over the final quarter of the year as seasonal demand picks up and production drops has also prompted increased ownership interest. Malaysian palm oil futures have finished the fourth quarter on a positive note for over two decades, with prices notching up a gain of almost 15% in October-December last year. – Reuters, September 12, 2014.

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #93 on: September 13, 2014, 10:15:39 PM »
Palm oil futures drift higher

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up to touch their highest in over three weeks on Friday, with prices recording a second straight weekly gain thanks to firm soyoil markets overseas and a surge in crude palm oil export demand.

A weaker Malaysian ringgit, which dipped 0.3 per cent this week, also stoked some buying interest for the ringgit-denominated palm feedstock.

Despite August end-stocks in the world’s No.2 producer swelling to a 17-month high of 2.05 million tonnes, palm prices increased 2.9pc this week, largely helped by a jump in exports between Sept. 1-10.

The benchmark November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose to 2,088 ringgit on Friday, its highest intra-day since Aug. 19, before settling at 2,084 ringgit ($652) per tonne at day’s close, up 0.8pc.

Total traded volume stood at 41,698 lots of 25 tonnes, above the average 35,000 lots. Technical indicators looked positive. Palm oil is expected to rise to 2,142 ringgit per tonne, as it has cleared resistance at 2,055 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Forecasts of bigger supplies of rival oilseeds, however, kept trade choppy and caused palm prices to slip to 2,051 ringgit in early Friday trade, as concerns of an edible oil supply glut continued to hang over the market. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the US soybean crop at a record 3.91 billion bushels, up 19pc on the year and above trade estimates averaging 3.88bn.

Published in Dawn, September 13th, 2014

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #94 on: September 15, 2014, 11:17:05 PM »
Malaysia’ Sep. Palm Oil Exports 750,425 (+31.48%) Tons: Intertek

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #95 on: September 22, 2014, 11:08:06 PM »
Malaysia's Sept. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 998,689 (+26%) Tons: SGS

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #96 on: September 27, 2014, 12:14:44 AM »
MALAYSIA'S SEPT. 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,286,901 (+34.6%) TONS: SGS

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #97 on: September 28, 2014, 10:11:30 PM »
UPDATE 1-Malaysian palm oil prices to rise 8 pct by Feb 2015 - LMC analyst James Fry



* Palm oil yields to drop in coming months on lower price

* Inventory will start falling from November onwards

* Soybean area in Brazil could fall due to price fall (Adds quote, details)

By Rajendra Jadhav

MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil prices are likely to rise nearly 8 percent to 2,350 ringgit a tonne by February 2015 as a reduction in inventories and lower yields offset an expected drop in crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said on Saturday.

"In oil palm, you will see lower fertiliser applications and longer gaps between harvesting rounds. The result will be some drop in output," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, told the Globoil India conference in Mumbai.

"On top of the fall that would occur if yields simply reverted to normal after a year characterised by generally good weather."

Malaysian palm oil futures settled at 2,177 Malaysian ringgit ($668.40) per tonne on Friday, after hitting a five-year low at 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2.

Forecasting palm oil price to rise to 2,350 ringgit, the London-based analyst assumes the price of Brent crude will drop to $90 per barrel until February. Brent is now around $97 a barrel, after hitting a two year low of $95.60 earlier this week.

If Brent crude drops to $85 a barrel, then the crude palm oil price could trade around 2,225 ringgit per tonne in February.

"Crude oil prices will ease, as supplies continue to grow and eventually U.S. interest rates rise. This sets the floor (for vegetable oils)," Fry said.

The palm oil price could jump over 13 percent to 2,465 ringgit in February if crude oil price remain at $95.

Vegetable oil prices move in sync with crude oil prices due to its rising use as a biofuel, he said. Lower crude oil prices make use of biofuel less attractive.

The competition between leading palm oil producers to export more tropical oil will help reduce stockpiles, which would start falling from November, Fry said.

Malaysia, the world's second biggest palm oil producer, has allowed duty free exports of crude palm oil for September and October, and rival top producer Indonesia responded with the same export incentive from October.

Both Malaysia and neighbour Indonesia set export taxes on a monthly basis. In August, Malaysia's export duty for crude palm oil was 5 percent, while Indonesia has set its September rate at 9 percent compared to 10.5 percent in August.

Fry said the sharp drop in soybean prices is unlikely to hurt planting in leading producer Argentina, but in Brazil some farmers could reduce their planting area.

"In the new soybean areas deep inside Brazil, freight costs to the coast have wiped out profits, and I would expect at the very least to see lower input use, but also probably some area reductions," he said.

U.S. soybeans notched a fresh four-year low on Friday amid ideal weather conditions for record harvests in the Midwestern crop belt, while new highs in the dollar made the supplies less competitive in global markets. (Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Michael Perry)


Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #98 on: September 28, 2014, 10:12:20 PM »
Palm oil to hit new 5-1/2 year low at 1,900 ringgit-analyst Mistry


(Reuters) - Palm oil prices are likely to fall nearly 13 percent to hit a new 5-1/2-year low of 1,900 ringgit ($583.36) per tonne on higher output and sluggish demand, but losses could be restricted to 2,000 ringgit if the Malaysian currency depreciates sharply, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said.

Malaysian palm oil futures settled at 2,177 ringgit ($668.40) per tonne on Friday, after hitting a 5-1/2-year low at 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2.

"Palm oil today is less competitive than it was last year as well as in June this year. Its discount to soya oil FOB (free-on-board) Argentina and to sun oil FOB Black Sea has been narrowing," Mistry said in his presentation at the Globoil India conference on Sunday.

"At this current price structure demand will gravitate towards soft oils and away from palm. We must remember we are almost into the winter season in the northern hemisphere, which is the main market for palm oil."

Demand for the tropical oil usually slows in winter because it clouds in lower temperatures.

"If the US dollar gets too strong and the ringgit weakens too much, it is conceivable that the local CPO price will be 2,000 ringgits, with an exchange rate of 3.4 to 3.5 ringgits to the dollar," he said.

The ringgit settled at 3.2575 against the dollar on Friday.

Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries, said his price forecast for crude palm oil was made assuming that Brent crude would trade in a range of $95-$110 per barrel. Energy prices are critical in determining bio-diesel demand.

Brent is now around $97 per barrel after hitting a two-year low of $95.60 last week.

Mistry also said palm oil stockpiles would keep rising, and could peak in December, due to higher production in the top two producing countries, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The higher output cycle in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm oil producer, has been intact and its output could reach 19.8 million to 20 million tonnes in 2014. Top producer Indonesia's output could exceed 30.5 million tonnes, he said.

"A bottom can be picked only after we have a better idea of October production and of Brazilian weather," he said.

Farmers in Brazil and Argentina are likely to switch to soybeans from corn this year, he said. "If weather and rainfall in Brazil and subsequently in Argentina are normal, we could see new lows in soybean prices around January 2015," Mistry said.

U.S. soybeans notched a fresh four-year low on Friday amid ideal weather conditions for record harvests in the Midwestern crop belt, while new highs in the dollar made the supplies less competitive in global markets.

Most-active CBOT November soybeans eased 1.3 percent, or 12-1/2 cents, to $9.10-1/4 per bushel, the lowest level since February of 2010 on a continuous chart.

Edible oil imports by India, the world's biggest buyer, are expected to rise by about 500,000 tonnes to 12.1 million tonnes in 2014/15 year starting from November, Mistry said. (1 US dollar = 3.2570 Malaysian ringgit) (Editing by Paul Tait)

Offline vincent88

  • Knight
  • **
  • Posts: 292
Re: CPO Latest Updated News
« Reply #99 on: September 30, 2014, 10:12:16 PM »
Malaysia September Palm Oil Exports 1,494,371 Tons (+16.5%), SGS Reports