Author Topic: Oil drop again  (Read 150589 times)

Offline U.K.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #100 on: January 04, 2015, 06:52:04 PM »
There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher. When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets. As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market. And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way. So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds. If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

Thanks.

Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil - Maciam Maciam theory bila drop - when come out everytime new high
« Reply #101 on: January 04, 2015, 06:53:00 PM »
Aiyoyooooyooo  :P

How many time we have seen this type of cycle in oil - and each time when it come out from the cycle, the bounce is very much stonger - it takes the crude oil to higher ground.  ;)

We must remember - oil is a depleting resource - any game must have and end plan.

The money market for energy stocks already rebounded worldwide just like past during oil crisis - so matter of time before oil Rebound lor  :nod:

Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #102 on: January 04, 2015, 07:01:30 PM »
If you worry about all the bond - worry is only on the small timer shale producers not the big timers like Exxon, chevron, BP etc. they sprang up like much rooms over past few years when oil was US100 and above. :)

This is what you call weeding out the weakest and the strongest will survive. The idea is to keep the shale oil in the ground UNTIL most conventional resources depleted or when these resources  cannot meet the global demand and then produce lor.

Anything that is expensive to produce will be put on hold with current oil prices - and gradually oil price stabilise it USD75 to USD80.

When demand exceed supply as in the past because of slowdown and postponement on projects in 2014 and 2015, you will see oil price once again zooming to new highs - always have happened. Check history  :nod:

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Re: Oil - Maciam Maciam theory bila drop - when come out everytime new high
« Reply #103 on: January 04, 2015, 07:04:39 PM »
Aiyoyooooyooo  :P

How many time we have seen this type of cycle in oil - and each time when it come out from the cycle, the bounce is very much stonger - it takes the crude oil to higher ground.  ;)

We must remember - oil is a depleting resource - any game must have and end plan.

The money market for energy stocks already rebounded worldwide just like past during oil crisis - so matter of time before oil Rebound lor  :nod:

Please tell us more about your cycle in oil.  After oil fall, what will follow next ?

Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #104 on: January 04, 2015, 07:07:55 PM »
Here - can read the real history of oil prices

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #105 on: January 04, 2015, 07:10:21 PM »
In June 2014, world bank ody warned about t end of commodities super bull cycle.  After 1.5 yr, oil, t last big commodity finally ended t super bull cycle.  

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #106 on: January 04, 2015, 07:11:16 PM »
In June 2014, world bank ody warned about t end of commodities super bull cycle.  After 1.5 yr, oil, t last big commodity finally ended t super bull cycle.  

Sorry, it was June 2013

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #107 on: January 04, 2015, 07:16:17 PM »
Here - can read the real history of oil prices

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

"Throughout much of the twentieth century, the  price of U.S. petroleum was heavily regulated through production or price controls.  In the post World War II era, U.S. oil prices at the wellhead averaged $28.52 per barrel adjusted for inflation to 2010 dollars.  In the absence of price controls, the U.S. price would have tracked the world price averaging near $30.54. Over the same post war period, the median for the domestic and the adjusted world price of crude oil was $20.53 in 2010 prices.  Adjusted for inflation, from 1947 to 2010 oil prices only exceeded $20.53 per barrel 50 percent of the time. "

Looking at the various oil prices, it appears to me the current oil of USD52 is still on the HIGH side and is expected to fall more in future.

Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #108 on: January 04, 2015, 07:18:16 PM »
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

IN 6 months from now - the truth will be known - oil is a depleting resource.

You will not see USD 100 this year but you Will see 75-80 anytime .

 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/If-Prices-Keep-Falling-OPEC-Must-Act-To-Restore-Fair-Rate-Of-70-80.html

The consensus among many Arab OPEC producers is that, one way or another, the worldwide price of oil will stabilize then rise again during 2015, settling between $70 and $80 per barrel by the end of the year, probably without intervention from the cartel’s leadership.

Yet there is a possibility that OPEC eventually may have to intervene if the global price of oil remains stubbornly around $60 per barrel or falls further, said Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, one OPEC representative who allowed his name to be used in an interview with Bloomberg News.

Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #109 on: January 04, 2015, 07:21:07 PM »
You have your views  :thumbsup:

I have mine - but this oil game is not new - even Petronas cannot make real money below USD70 - so the economics are very much different now.

Speak to SME and you will have a better insight - good luck!! :handshake:

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #110 on: January 04, 2015, 07:23:21 PM »

In recent history,
There were 3 previous commodities super bull cyce,
1917, 1951 n 1973.
All lasted 13 to 15 yrs, Followed by prolonged Bear cycle of 6 to 10 yrs.
T current super bull cycle started in 2000/2001.
Whats next........


Offline Joe99

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #111 on: January 04, 2015, 07:27:13 PM »
Forgot to just add one - we no longer find oil easily unlike the past - now we are moving into deeper waters and more challenging environments - hence the production cost is very much higher that 5 to 10years ago - even in Malaysia - we are going into deep water for GUMUSUT and MALIKAI field as shallow water exploration and drilling has been all explored and developed.

So the cost of production has gone up significantly - if you have friends in the EnP in Petronas you can check the cost of bring oil to the ground now compared with 10 years ago.  :sweat:

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #112 on: January 04, 2015, 07:28:35 PM »
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

IN 6 months from now - the truth will be known - oil is a depleting resource.

You will not see USD 100 this year but you Will see 75-80 anytime .

 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/If-Prices-Keep-Falling-OPEC-Must-Act-To-Restore-Fair-Rate-Of-70-80.html

The consensus among many Arab OPEC producers is that, one way or another, the worldwide price of oil will stabilize then rise again during 2015, settling between $70 and $80 per barrel by the end of the year, probably without intervention from the cartel’s leadership.

Yet there is a possibility that OPEC eventually may have to intervene if the global price of oil remains stubbornly around $60 per barrel or falls further, said Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, one OPEC representative who allowed his name to be used in an interview with Bloomberg News.


"Oil rose today on optimism over upcoming US data and lower Libyan output, but gains were capped after Saudi Arabia declared Opec will not cut output even at US$20 (RM69.80) per barrel."

Offline U.K.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #113 on: January 04, 2015, 07:29:09 PM »
Forgot to just add one - we no longer find oil easily unlike the past - now we are moving into deeper waters and more challenging environments - hence the production cost is very much higher that 5 to 10years ago - even in Malaysia - we are going into deep water for GUMUSUT and MALIKAI field as shallow water exploration and drilling has been all explored and developed.

So the cost of production has gone up significantly - if you have friends in the EnP in Petronas you can check the cost of bring oil to the ground now compared with 10 years ago.  :sweat:

 :D :D MALAIKAI sounds like a type of tasty chicken

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #114 on: January 04, 2015, 07:30:37 PM »
China shale oil reserve = US reserve + Canada reserve

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #115 on: January 04, 2015, 07:32:10 PM »
Forgot to just add one - we no longer find oil easily unlike the past - now we are moving into deeper waters and more challenging environments - hence the production cost is very much higher that 5 to 10years ago - even in Malaysia - we are going into deep water for GUMUSUT and MALIKAI field as shallow water exploration and drilling has been all explored and developed.

So the cost of production has gone up significantly - if you have friends in the EnP in Petronas you can check the cost of bring oil to the ground now compared with 10 years ago.  :sweat:

Agreed with U that the cost of production has gone up significantly, then what is the reason for the oil price to fall more than 40% in about half year onli ?

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #116 on: January 04, 2015, 07:32:22 PM »
US shale oil reserve constitute only 10% of world shale oil reserve.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #117 on: January 04, 2015, 07:35:44 PM »

And wif continuous fracking  technology breakthrough, t cost of shale oil production can only go down.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #118 on: January 04, 2015, 07:39:13 PM »


Also, bear in mind, there is such thing as
Alternative energy.

After 20 yrs of research, Toyota finally put Fuel Cell car on t road.
Thks to another Technology Breakthrough.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #119 on: January 04, 2015, 07:40:45 PM »
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

IN 6 months from now - the truth will be known - oil is a depleting resource.

You will not see USD 100 this year but you Will see 75-80 anytime .

 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/If-Prices-Keep-Falling-OPEC-Must-Act-To-Restore-Fair-Rate-Of-70-80.html

The consensus among many Arab OPEC producers is that, one way or another, the worldwide price of oil will stabilize then rise again during 2015, settling between $70 and $80 per barrel by the end of the year, probably without intervention from the cartel’s leadership.

Yet there is a possibility that OPEC eventually may have to intervene if the global price of oil remains stubbornly around $60 per barrel or falls further, said Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, one OPEC representative who allowed his name to be used in an interview with Bloomberg News.


Agreed oil is a depleting resource but then ALL commodities are also a depleting resources.

Maybe oil is not so depleting as it can be replaced by our palm oil ?

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #120 on: January 04, 2015, 07:42:18 PM »

物      適

競      者

天      生

擇      存


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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #121 on: January 04, 2015, 07:45:01 PM »


The
Era of High Oil Price
Might become History.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #122 on: January 04, 2015, 07:47:27 PM »
And wif continuous fracking  technology breakthrough, t cost of shale oil production can only go down.
Yes. Next tp 45
Namotasapakawatoarahatosamasamputasa

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #123 on: January 04, 2015, 07:47:31 PM »
You have your views  :thumbsup:

I have mine - but this oil game is not new - even Petronas cannot make real money below USD70 - so the economics are very much different now.

Speak to SME and you will have a better insight - good luck!! :handshake:

If  Petronas cannot make real money below USD70 with the current oil price at about USD 52, PETRONAS now is in the RED ?

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #124 on: January 04, 2015, 07:48:18 PM »

Henry Kissinger said,

Control oil and u control nations.

Kissenger might b proven wrong in near future.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #125 on: January 04, 2015, 07:49:58 PM »
Kissenger might b proven wrong in near future.

I also think so lah.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #126 on: January 04, 2015, 07:50:43 PM »
I also think so lah.

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Offline U.K.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #127 on: January 04, 2015, 08:01:49 PM »
物      適

競      者

天      生

擇      存



This is the Chinese version of Survival-of-the-Fittest (by Charles Darwin) ?

 :handshake:


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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #128 on: January 04, 2015, 08:06:06 PM »
If  Petronas cannot make real money below USD70 with the current oil price at about USD 52, PETRONAS now is in the RED ?

Can our great DR M who is also PETRONAS advisor turn it into black amid Oil Price remains below USD60?

(he is a genius right? can he do some magic to PETRONAS ah  :giggle:)

Offline kok

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #129 on: January 04, 2015, 08:20:18 PM »
Mahathir  was right  about  1MDB . He was right  about  the  debts problems . Mahathir  is the greatest  Prime  minister  of all time . It was malaysian  loss that he longer  in office .

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #130 on: January 04, 2015, 08:22:17 PM »


Dubai index down 2.3% now
Bcos of oil price.

Offline jojo

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #131 on: January 04, 2015, 08:28:26 PM »
Mahathir  was right  about  1MDB . He was right  about  the  debts problems . Mahathir  is the greatest  Prime  minister  of all time . It was malaysian  loss that he longer  in office .

pooohh....pooohhh......pooorrrdahhh....

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #132 on: January 05, 2015, 04:58:57 AM »


Gd
Morning

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #133 on: January 05, 2015, 05:59:50 AM »


TODAY

HOW  ??

Offline DR KIM

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #134 on: January 05, 2015, 06:00:11 AM »

Dubai index down 2.3% now
Bcos of oil price.

boooo chowwww  cccccccccccccccccccc today...runnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #135 on: January 05, 2015, 06:00:58 AM »
boooo chowwww  cccccccccccccccccccc today...runnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

SEE
U
AT
50 ??

Offline eye-hub

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #136 on: January 05, 2015, 06:57:39 AM »
"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #137 on: January 05, 2015, 07:01:28 AM »

See me at 1500????


U have my company.

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #138 on: January 05, 2015, 07:21:40 AM »


石油石油滑溜溜

消費税更是悪瘤

Offline The-Keyman

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #139 on: January 05, 2015, 07:48:09 AM »

石油石油滑溜溜

消費税更是悪瘤

See you at $50 tomorrow

See you at $38 in near future

“The-Keyman” do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness and also accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this forum or further communication given in relation to this forum

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #140 on: January 05, 2015, 07:54:18 AM »
See you at $50 tomorrow

See you at $38 in near future



MOST

WELCOME

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #141 on: January 05, 2015, 07:56:23 AM »


ASIAN
OIL MKT
DOWN SLIGHTLY

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #142 on: January 05, 2015, 08:03:00 AM »

石     消     股     
油     費     市
石     税     怎
油     更     不
滑     是     往
溜     恶     下
溜     瘤     游
 ,     ,     ?

Offline DR KIM

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #143 on: January 05, 2015, 08:12:06 AM »
many to be  roasted to  dead  rat,,,, :phew: :phew: :sweat: ;) ;)

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #144 on: January 05, 2015, 08:13:43 AM »


WTI,  52.22

LOWER THAN FRIDAY LOW OF 52.28

Offline DR KIM

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #145 on: January 05, 2015, 08:28:00 AM »

WTI,  52.22

LOWER THAN FRIDAY LOW OF 52.28

nikkie japan  collapsed   now   - 110

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Re: Oredi got taken steps to protect your hard earn moni ?
« Reply #146 on: January 05, 2015, 09:19:25 AM »
Please take action to protect your hard earn moni. Our DR KIM's critical analysis on our stock market had always been proven korrect all the times.

Oredi got taken steps to protect your hard earn moni ?

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Re: Oredi got taken steps to protect your hard earn moni ?
« Reply #147 on: January 05, 2015, 09:21:52 AM »
Oredi got taken steps to protect your hard earn moni ?



                                           :thumbsup:

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #148 on: January 05, 2015, 09:22:16 AM »
many to be  roasted to  dead  rat,,,, :phew: :phew: :sweat: ;) ;)

Our DR KIM's warning 'roasted to  dead  rat' = our hard earn moni burnt to ashes by the market fire

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Re: Oil drop again
« Reply #149 on: January 05, 2015, 09:23:57 AM »
Our DR KIM's warning 'roasted to  dead  rat' = our hard earn moni burnt to ashes by the market fire



                             :sweat: :sweat: :sweat: