Author Topic: KLSE starting to collapse  (Read 838974 times)

Offline jjwong

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12100 on: September 12, 2019, 10:29:56 AM »
Microsoft has released a new YouTube video featuring Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad learning how to code from Chloe Soh Ke Er and Serena Zara Taufiq, who are both just 10 years old.

In the video titled "#STEM skills are the passport to individual and national success", viewers will be introduced to Serena who described herself as a CEO for social enterprise Serena's Secrets while Soh said she builds robots to help farmers. Dr M appears to be learning how to code using the Microsoft MakeCode for Minecraft on Windows 10 programme.

The video even includes snippets where the girls – who are also both Microsoft Malaysia ambassadors – asking for advice on how to be a wise Prime Minister.



Dr Mahathir explained in the video how technology plays an important role as Malaysia go on a digital transformation journey.

"Mobility, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence (or AI), and big data analytics are among the most important drivers of digital transformation. With that, STEM needs to be democratised in order to develop Future Ready Malaysian Talent,” he said.

According to Microsoft, the video is aimed at raising awareness and "breaking down barriers" on Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education and enhancing understanding about digital literacy among Malaysians.

The company explained that as local businesses and organisation embrace digital transformation, digital skills and STEM education are some skills that must be acquired by individuals.

"As such, we have a shared responsibility to learn, unlearn and relearn new digital skills, as we work towards building a Digital Nation that is digital by default, transformational and secure by design," Microsoft said in a statement.

The video includes a link for viewers to learn more about STEM and coding with Microsoft. In March, Microsoft Malaysia partnered with the Education Ministry to launch STEM4ALL, an initiative that aims to transform the education industry in Malaysia by equipping future workforce with essential digital skills and understanding about different forms of new technology.
"The only conquests which are permanent and leave no regrets are our conquests over ourselves"    Quote from Napolean Bonaparte

Politicians like to rally the masses to stage conquest  against "the enemy",  the real intent is  actually...$ $

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12101 on: October 01, 2019, 09:18:44 AM »
Continue downtrend till 1550
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12102 on: October 01, 2019, 09:19:20 AM »
(伦敦1日讯)上一次铝需求萎缩是在金融危机期间,市场花了十多年才消化掉过剩的供应。现在随着需求增长出现停滞,市场为库存再度大幅增加做好了准备。

由于全球经济增长放缓,且美中贸易战对这种广泛用于飞机、汽车和啤酒罐的金属需求构成冲击,铝价创出两年半低点。尽管伦敦金属交易所(LME)跟踪的库存在上周降至2007年以来最低,但交易员称实货市场库存正在增加,因为订单状况变差使铝的供应超过了消费者需求的数量。



面对需求增速放缓至2009年来最弱水平,以及逆价差扩大促使人们将铝收进库存,交易员正在为交易所库存回升的前景未雨绸缪。与金融危机时期一样,由于重新启用闲置生产线的成本昂贵,生产商短期内不愿限制产量,这可能会加剧供应失衡局面。

“就我们正在关注的所有经济指标而言,一切都预示着经济进一步下滑,” Wood Mackenzie分析师Kamil Wlazly在雅典参加Fastmarkets国际铝业大会期间表示。“明年可能会更糟,因为我们认为市场尚未触底。”



全球需求料仅增0.2%

Wood Mackenzie称,因欧洲汽车行业等关键部门放缓,今年铝需求料增1至2%。另一家咨询公司CRU Group预计的情况更糟糕,预计全球需求仅增长0.2%,中国以外地区需求萎缩1.2%,是金融危机以来首次下降。



截至伦敦时间12:31,伦敦金属交易所期铝报每吨1727.50美元。金属交易公司Concord Resources Ltd.表示,可能需要价格进一步下跌10%或更多才会有实质性减产。

在LME库存接近2007年以来最低水平的情况下,市场参与者预计库存将再次大幅上升,虽然程度远不会像金融危机时那样严重。

12月期铝合约比1月合约溢价10.50美元,这种逆价差通常会吸引人们将金属存到交易所仓库,以赚取近月价格更高带来的红利。上周五,现货合约比次日合约价格溢价10美元,为一年多以来最大逆价差,加大了头寸持有者的短期压力。
Namotasapakawatoarahatosamasamputasa

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12103 on: October 01, 2019, 09:20:32 AM »
(吉隆坡30日讯)9月国内外不利双重夹攻,市场缺乏主题股,导致马股表现极其疲弱,不仅失守1600点大关,还以28.23点或1.75%的跌幅,位居亚股第三差的股市。



市场专家认为马股仍充满变数,未来主要看预算案、外围及利率走势,但不乏为入场好时机。

在9月,亚洲主要股市表现最佳的是日本日经指数,按月走高5.08%。

排在第二与第三的分别是首尔综合股价指数和台湾加权指数,按季分别走高4.84%和1.99%。

表现最差的股市,则是印尼雅加达综合指数,共跌2.54%。

马股富时隆综指在本月按月跌1.75%,收报1583.91点,亚股中第三差股市。期间最高达1604.47点,最低至1578.53点。



按季来看,综指走跌5.28%,也是亚股中跌幅第三大。垫底的是香港恒生指数和新加坡海峡时报指数,分别在第三季下跌8.58%与6.07%。

看中美脸色

环顾区域,日经指数则引领亚股,第三季录得2.26%涨幅,紧随在后的是中国深圳指数和加权指数,涨幅分别为2.10%和0.92%。

奕丰(iFAST)投资顾问谭成暐接受《南洋商报》电访时指,下周即将出炉的预算案有可能是马股近期唯一可见的利好因素或指引。

“相比去年较为保守的预算案,我国财政部长林冠英先前指出,在此次预算案将会倾向扩张性,因此料能激励本地经济。”

另外,他认为若中美贸易谈判能取得显著进展,将是推动马股一大利器。

“此外,近期美国经济发展也很重要,若美联储随后决定降息,那么大马国行就会有减息压力。”

综上考虑后,谭成暐中和看待综指接下来走势,并称若上述事件有重大的良好进展,综指有望重返1600点以上。

预算案带动建筑业

另一方面,MIDF投资研究主管莫哈末雷查也说:“在此次预算案中,建筑与建材业者将会是潜在赢家,配合先前被搁置的基建项目,资本开销料保持稳健。”

除此之外,他称其他能够影响综指10月波动的,还有英脱欧和欧盟增长忧虑。

“英脱欧是否能实现?是否会再次进行公投或无协议‘硬’脱欧?至于欧盟增长方面,仍让人感到担忧,尤其在减息10个点后,通胀率仍然低于目标。”

放眼全年,莫哈末雷查仍维持综指1680点目标,但预计市场波动较大。

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进场抄底好时机

在市场充满变数之际,莫哈末雷查称,这也是投资者进场买入的好时机。

“这样的动荡或是买入高股息与基本面强股项的良机,尤其消费股项。”

他补充:“当负面情绪影响整体市场时,我们有数家本地‘冠军’看起来更‘低廉’了,例如国油贸易(PETDAG,5681,主板消费股)或睦兴旺(MUHIBAH,5703 ,主板建筑股)。”

另外,随着油价回稳,他认为投资者可以考虑亚航集团(AIRASIA,5099,主板消费股),同时还点名股息优渥的UOA发展(UOADEV,5200,主板产业股),及有参与东海岸铁路(ECRL)项目的家盟吉(GBGAQRS,5226,主板建筑股)。
Namotasapakawatoarahatosamasamputasa

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12104 on: October 01, 2019, 11:57:45 AM »
Again NO ohm  :D
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12105 on: October 01, 2019, 09:24:39 PM »
(吉隆坡1日讯)近日有报道称,云顶大马(GENM,4715,主板消费股)仍未放弃竞标希腊综合度假村项目Helleniko内的赌场。

对此,摩根大通分析员指出,公司标下希腊赌场并非好事,因为希腊赌业市场小,但却需庞大投资额,因此,他提醒云顶大马的股价很可能再遭打击。



分析员在报告中点出,目前竞标希腊赌场的程序仍处早期,另外,云顶大马也未曾证实过对希腊赌牌的兴趣,因此,未能得知希腊赌场计划的可行度。

“无论如何,由于最近收购帝国度假村事件的影响,我们预计云顶大马的股价将承受卖压,直到事情更明朗为止。”



希腊赌场年均复跌11%

分析员认为,如果云顶大马真的拿下Hellenikon赌场项目,公司股价可能遭遇市场的负面反应,因为希腊赌业市场较小(2017年时希腊赌业的赌博营收(GGR)仅有2.8亿欧元,或约为12.8亿令吉),但所需投资额却相当大。



“另外值得注意的是,根据官方资料,在2007年至2017年期间,希腊赌场行业的GGR以年均复跌11%的速度下滑。”

不管怎样,分析员点出,云顶大马仍尚未拿下希腊赌场,而且还需面对来自美国强敌的竞争。

根据新闻报道,价值约11亿新元(约33.3亿令吉)的希腊Hellenikon赌场项目正在开放竞标,有意者最迟需在10月4日前提呈标书。

目前,除了云顶大马,硬石国际(Hard Rock International)和经营金神赌场的Mohegan博彩也对希腊Hellenikon有兴趣。

“有鉴于此,我们维持云顶大马的‘中和’评级,以及目标价3.20令吉。”

云顶大马今日闭市时报3.06令吉,升3仙或0.99%,成交量458万9000股。

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12106 on: October 02, 2019, 05:53:25 AM »
KOTA KINABALU (Oct 1): All state governments have been asked to submit detailed transportation project proposals to enable the Federal government to consider including them in the 2020 Budget and the 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP).

In stating this today, Transport Deputy Minister Datuk Kamarudin Jaffar said now is the best time to submit the plans to the Economic Affairs Ministry, which is in the midst of identifying projects which will be provided with allocations next year. 

Kamarudin said this to reporters after attending the opening ceremony of the two-day 2nd Sabah Port Forum here, which was launched by Sabah Health and People's Wellbeing Minister Datuk Frankie Poon Ming Fung who was representing Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, with Suria Capital Holdings Berhad and Sabah Ports Sdn Bhd chairman Tan Sri Ibrahim Menudin also present. 

Asked about the Sabah government's plan to build a 175 kilometre railway line from Kota Kinabalu to Kudat, Kamarudin said while his ministry had yet to receive specific information on the proposal, he was optimistic that the project would be considered positively by the Federal government. 

He added that if the project was not included in the 2020 Budget, it would be incorporated into the 12MP, which will also take effect next year.

In June, Mohd Shafie had said the railway line was vital to efforts aimed at upgrading and advancing Sabah's shipping sector, aside from serving as a measure to reduce the dependence on container lorries and tankers to transport goods meant for export, through roads which were congested with traffic, particularly in Sepanggar. — Bernama
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12107 on: October 28, 2019, 10:35:33 AM »
(吉隆坡24日讯)本报探悉,国家银行最快会在明年初,发出第一张虚拟银行执照。



金融界消息指出,国行与业界经过多轮深入讨论虚拟银行课题后,彼此目标一致,想加快落实虚拟银行。

“区域多个国家都在不同阶段推进虚拟银行,我国也不能落后太多。”

虚拟银行的商机令人垂涎,不少金融机构和新兴金融科技公司,早前已经对执照表示兴趣,目前尚未知国行会发出多少张执照,但看来明年新旧金融业者间势必有一番激烈的竞争。

Grab和Axiata也虎视眈眈
10公司拟设虚拟银行

财政部长林冠英在本月11日提呈2020年财政预算案时指出,国家银行草拟的虚拟银行执照架构已晋尾声,年底就会征询公众意见和回馈,明年初就会开放供申请。



消息人士向本报透露,国行因此希望加快落实虚拟银行,有兴趣的公司都已在筹备。

据悉,至今已有10家公司表示有意申请,成立首批虚拟银行。

之前已表示对虚拟银行执照有兴趣的传统国内银行,包括有马银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融股)、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、艾芬银行(AFFIN,5185,主板金融股)和丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融股)。

值得留意的是,在国内多家银行当中,只有联昌国际已经在菲律宾经营无实体分行的全面数字化银行。

该公司是在去年12月,获得菲律宾央行批准,正式在当地推介数字银行业务。


马银行、Grab和Boost等皆对虚拟银行执照虎视眈眈。
除了银行,科技巨头Grab和拥有电子钱包Boost的亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板电信与媒体股),也对虚拟银行执照虎视眈眈。

虚拟银行并非新概念,泰国、印尼、菲律宾、香港、新加坡等都已经开跑;远一点如韩国和印度等,更比这些邻近国家更早推出。

香港刚在5月发出了共8张虚拟银行执照,估计年底前就会第一家开业;新加坡金管局在6月时宣布,发出了5张虚拟银行执照。

产品服务皆线上解决

虚拟银行指的是完全没有实体分行,所有产品或服务的申请、审批、通知到发放,全在线上解决,可以是网站、手机应用程式或线上平台等等。

至于政府会否容许外资公司参与,消息人士表示,目前未定案。但他认为,金融业毕竟比较敏感,不排除国行即使放行,也极可能会下一道持股上限的门槛,至于门槛多少则未知。

目前,外资只能持有银行机构30%,或许国行会以此为准绳,同样限制外资科技伙伴公司在虚拟银行的持股。


香港的WeLend 借贷服务结合AI 科技,即时进行大数据分析,评估申请人的财务状况及信贷等,提供即时的网上自动审批服务。
大银行或仅能持股10%

目前,不少银行也有线上平台或手机程式,推出各种线上交易,而国行这次考虑发行虚拟银行执照,并没有阻止实体银行参与。

但据悉国行不想虚拟银行继续由财雄势大的实体银行继续主导,所以,即使不阻止也很可能会限定持股权。

消息说,国行目前的想法是最高10%。

也就是说,银行业进一步开放,实体银行不再“独享”市场,借贷服务不再只受限在26家本地主导和外资实体银行手上。

手机金融交易破千亿

根据国行的报告,去年通过手机进行的金融交易量和值都翻倍,交易宗数2亿5740万,总值达到1001亿令吉;2017年有1亿770万宗交易,总值才507亿令吉。

同时,下载银行手机银行服务者,则比2017年的440万人,猛涨至660万人。

虚拟银行年代到来之时,可能颠覆整个金融领域的生态和运营模式,实体银行更加备受考验,因为会有更多业者加入抢滩,如何维持竞争力和保留客户,非常考功夫。

但对消费者来说则更有利,这意味着更多选择,除了借贷审批效率、利率、条款,还可依据个人需求或服务来决定。


香港的WeLend 借贷服务结合AI 科技,即时进行大数据分析,评估申请人的财务状况及信贷等,提供即时的网上自动审批服务。
科技比金融知识更重要

政府一直落力地推动金融科技普及化,希望我国在虚拟银行发展上,也能做成引导者。

“但是,经营或营运虚拟银行的金融科技,例如速度、认证、保安等等技术,都比金融知识更重要。”

所以,国行虽然同意实体银行参与虚拟银行,也开放让其他领域的业者参与及持股。

“国行此举是因为考虑到虚拟银行需要更先进科技,来因应如快速处理或审批申请、保安问题等等,银行业者未必愿意投资或有能力做到。”

如此一来,让科技伙伴也持股,一同分享蛋糕,而不是光提供科技平台来赚一笔的概念显得更合理。

消息人士续说,国行希望一同构建虚拟银行平台或生态的参与公司,从出资到提供平台科技的,都可以“真正”参与并共同持股。

“唯有这样,才能导入更多创新概念和抖技,让虚拟银行平台百花齐放。”

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亚太新兴市场商机大

标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)早前在报告《银行的未来:虚拟银行在亚太区逐梦》中指出,亚太区的新兴市场国家有大批缺乏银行服务的人口,因此,是虚拟银行筑基和增长的绝佳摇篮地。

该机构指出,亚太区内单单是中国和印度的人口就高达28亿人,占了全球超过47%的人口。

另外,全球8大人口国家除了中印,亚太区内的印尼、巴基斯坦和孟加拉等国家,都有大批缺乏银行服务的人口。

“现今和未来影响人口、都市化和消费习惯的趋势,都对虚拟银行有利。年轻化的人口、银行界开放接受和采用创新科技(尤其是在中国)及攀升的消费主义,将会成为虚拟银行成功的助力。”

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非金融机构产品受热捧

非金融机构推出的各种金融科技概念和产品,让人眼前一亮,市场接受程度更高,而且使用量急升。

例如49家持有发行电子钱包的公司,就有75%推出手机支付,而且占了这类交易的88.4%。

当中,Boost、GrabPay 和 Touch‘n Go(TnG) 都是电子钱包的领航者,其他还有Lazada 电子钱包、Samsung Pay 和 PayPal等,都很出色和富有创意。

目前,联昌国际持股52%的TnG ,国内活跃用户达到1800万人,Boost声称有440万人使用,参与商店9万家。


本地消费者日渐倾向使用数字化付款措施。
大马须加重数字投资

标普也提醒,我国银行业者需慎防全球经济难题与潜在金融科技的夹攻,因此,应加重数字银行的投资来应对。

该机构分析员段如君(译音)在《大马银行展望:现有银行感到的压迫》指出,我国银行面对贸易战、中国经济放缓、本地经商情绪低落和商品价格保持疲软的多项难题。

银行业者还需对抗潜在金融科技公司的挑战;后者成本较低,拥有颠覆银行领域的能力。

“这将让如Grab与亚通等科技或电信公司,在无需背负昂贵分行费用的情况下,与银行的贷款和存款业务竞争。”

此外,腾讯与阿里巴巴等国际借贷巨头,已在本地数字付款方面,取得一定市占率,对国内银行形成威胁。

不过,标普在9月时依然维持大马银行领域展望“稳定”的评级,显示因素暂时还未形成较大冲击。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12108 on: October 31, 2019, 09:40:24 AM »

(美国‧芝加哥31日讯)纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的12月黄金期价30日比前一交易日上涨6美元,收于每盎司1496.7美元,涨幅为0.4%。

分析人士说,当天美元指数走低是黄金期价上涨的主要原因。

当天,12月交割的白银期货价格上涨3.6美分,收于每盎司17.867美元,涨幅为0.2%;2020年1月交割的白金期货价格上涨5.5美元,收于每盎司930.6美元,涨幅为0.59%。(新华社)
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12109 on: October 31, 2019, 09:41:28 AM »

(图:新华社)
(纽约31日讯)隔夜(10月30日)的国际油价下跌。

美国能源信息局当天公布的数据显示,上周美国商业原油库存为4.389亿桶,环比增加570万桶。

截至当天收盘,纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.48美元,收于每桶55.06美元,跌幅为0.86%。

12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.98美元,收于每桶60.61美元,跌幅为1.59%。(新华社)
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12110 on: October 31, 2019, 09:41:49 AM »
(纽约31日综合电)纽约市场油价周三连续第3天走弱,主因美国政府公布的报告显示,国内原油供应量高于预期,加以智利取消主办亚太高峰会,而美中两国领袖原本预期将在这次峰会签署贸易协议。

在纽约商品交易所,美国市场基准商品西德州中级原油12月期货价格下跌48美分,收在每桶55.06美元。



伦敦市场北海布兰特原油12月期货价格下跌98美分,收在60.61美元。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12111 on: October 31, 2019, 10:07:01 AM »
KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 31): The fall in KPJ Healthcare's share price by 12% year-to-date due to imminent drug price control by the Malaysian government is an opportunity to accumulate the shares, Maybank Kim Eng says.

The broker believes the Malaysian hospital operator should be able to raise other charges to mitigate for a potential lower drug revenue. It upgrades KPJ to buy rating from hold, and raises price target to RM1.08 from RM1.00.
 
It says selling of KPJ's shares is looking overdone. KPJ last closed at 93 sen. The company is due to announce its 3Q earnings end-November.
 
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12112 on: November 01, 2019, 08:39:12 AM »
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Asia looked poised to decline after renewed concern on trade sent Treasuries higher and U.S. equities lower ahead of Friday’s American jobs and manufacturing
data.

Futures on Japanese shares retreated along with those in Hong Kong, while shares opened lower in Sydney. The S&P 500 slipped as Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest trade issues. Treasuries extended gains seen in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s signal
it will keep policy on hold.

The latest episode in the trade saga is testing investor risk appetite, as Chinese officials cast doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement. Next up on the data front come the monthly jobs report on Friday and a read
on American manufacturing for October.

“Markets participants, as well as maybe even the Fed, have been very optimistic” on the trade truce, Tiffany Wilding, chief U.S. economist at Pacific Investment Management Co., told Bloomberg TV. “We can see some more deterioration there.”

Elsewhere, oil retreated on a combination of Saudi supply gains and the renewed trade woes. Gold surged more than 1% on Thursday.
 
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12113 on: November 04, 2019, 02:13:54 PM »

美国上周五宣布10月非农新增职位放缓速度比预期小、及美中贸易战传来较为正面发展利好支撑,激励亚太股全面涨升,马股综指一度涨破1600点关口,半天仍跟涨4.78点或是0.3%至1598.12点。

半天休市时,马股富时全股项指数则起36.99点或是0.32%至11317.12点,创业板指数则起

21.87点至5001.30点。整体马股起多跌少,交投焦点落在低价油气股,上升股有386只、下跌股为320只、及358只平盘。半天成交量达14亿4375万4500股,值8亿5687万2617令吉。

市场人士认为,美中贸易战取得正面发展,市场传来双方官员已就各自核心关切问题取得原则上共识,此项利好刺激区域股市全面扬升,也推动马股交投情绪而走高,综指一度涨升至1600.65点最高峰。

低价油气股成为交投热点,沙布拉能源(SAPNRG,5210,主板能源组)半天涨0.5仙至26.5仙,并以成交量6888万4300股崛起为全场最热门股、另一只油气股-幸马泰资源(SUMATEC,1201,PN17公司)为全场第2热门股,共有5199万5800股易手,半天平盘以0.5仙休市。国油贸易(PETDAG,5681,主板消费产品服务组)为升幅较高股项,半天涨20仙至23令吉74仙。

区域股市全面报涨,截至今日中午时分,上海股市综指涨22.23点或0.75%至2980.43点、深圳股市综指扬升14.67点或0.89%至1651.67点、及韩国首尔股市起26.32点或是1.26%至2126.52点。

马币汇市方面,截至今日中午12时30分为止,马币兑美元汇率起至4.1520,比较上周五下午5时为止则为4.1640。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12114 on: November 08, 2019, 11:08:06 PM »
(吉隆坡8日讯)MSCI最新半年度指数成分股调整结果出炉,3只马股跌出MSCI全球标准指数,分别是安联银行(ABMB,2488,主板金融股)、森那美产业(SIMEPROP,5288,主板产业股)和实达集团(SPSETIA,8664,主板产业股)。

迎9小型股



大马在MSCI全球小型股指数迎来9只新马股,其中包括从全球标准指数除名的安联银行、森那美产业和实达集团。

其他6家上榜的公司,包括怡克伟士(EKOVEST,8877, 主板建筑股)、前研科技(FRONTKN,0128,主板科技股)、龙合国际(LHI,6633,主板消费股)、马矿业(MMCCORP,2194,主板交通与物流股)、腾达科技(PENTA,7160,主板科技股)和大马回教保险(TAKAFUL,6139,主板金融股)。

另外,有4家公司从该名单剔除,分别是莫实得种植(BPLANT,5254,主板种植股)、东家(E&O,3417,主板产业股)、丰隆工业(HLIND,3301,主板消费股)及UOA发展(UOADEV,5200,主板产业股)。

根据文告,上述所有调整将在11月26日收盘后实施。

此外,下一轮季度与半年度成分股调整结果,将分别在明年2月12日与5月12日公布。



今日闭市时,安联银行挂2.78令吉,跌12仙或4.14%,成交量2190万2200股。

同时,森那美产业报73.5仙,平盘,共有3966万4200股易手;实达集团则跌至1.32令吉,幅度5仙或3.65%,成交量3035万100股。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12115 on: November 16, 2019, 09:58:41 AM »
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 23): With just over six weeks left in 2019, the benchmark for Malaysian equities is still hovering near multi-year lows.

Year-to-date, Malaysian equities bellwether, the FBMKLCI has been one of the region’s worst performers, declining 5.67% year-to-Nov 15.

But historical trends suggest that a recovery spurt could be in the offing as the year draws to a close.

Some fund managers The Edge spoke to say that there are positive signals recently that may boost market sentiment surrounding big-cap stocks. In turn, that may provide tactical opportunities to ride any window-dressing effect that may arise as the year comes to a close.

Historical data shows that the ten-year period between 2009 and 2018, Bursa Malaysia’s FBMKLCI Index has rallied in the final quarter for seven out of ten years, rising between 2.35% and 10.35%.

In the three years that the index recorded a net decline in the final three months of each year, there was a noticeable rebound near the end.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12116 on: November 16, 2019, 07:39:35 PM »
PH losing Tanjung Piai by election signalling weaker government.
- CP fund price - OCT 2014
CP Master fund    134.46
CP Income fund    fixed 8% 1yr or 30% 3 yrs
CP Global Alpha fund 110.99
CP Multi Strategy fund  88.98

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12117 on: November 17, 2019, 10:24:15 PM »
(吉隆坡17日讯)我国第3季经济数据在贸易战长期影响下不甚理想,外加中国经济表现也逊于预期,让市场气氛持续笼罩于阴霾之下,故本周马股料保持低迷,跌向1590点支撑位。



香港反送中风波延烧5个月后,近期首次出现死亡案例,显示冲突升级。与此同时,中国10月份的工业生产、零售消费和投资增长数据皆差强人意,导致市场对全球经济放缓的担忧日益增加。

大马辉立财资管理公司投资部高级副总裁拿督纳兹里甘指出,贸易谈判的不确定性和香港的政治紧张局势,已严重打击市场对全球经济前景的信心,这也将进一步殃及贸易氛围。

“贸易战带来的风险仍是我们重点关注的问题,因此建议采取风险规避模式(Risk Averse,指通过计划的变更来消除风险或风险发生的条件)的投资者最好限制自身对全球资产的曝险。”

贸易谈判的不确定性和香港的政治紧张局势,加上本地经济数据表现放缓,料拖累马股本周走势。
贸易谈判的不确定性和香港的政治紧张局势,加上本地经济数据表现放缓,料拖累马股本周走势。
建议采风险规避模式
在贸易战影响下,我国经贸数据和前景皆疲弱,纳兹里甘因此估计马股本周将出现下滑趋势,徘徊于1580点至1595点之间。

我国第3季国内生产总值(GDP)按年增4.4%,逊于次季的4.9%;其中,私人消费增幅骤降至7%。

纳兹里甘指出,只要贸易战未解决,我国进出口表现将首当其冲,进一步萎缩。

上周,马股随亚洲股市走软,按周下滑14.98点至1594.75点,比较前周五(8日)的1609.73点。

种植股有望扶助
纳兹里甘认为,得益于种植领域前景乐观,种植股接下来可能扶持马股走势。

我国日前和来自迪拜的Hakan Agro DMCC公司,以及中国渤海商品交易所签署谅解备忘录,拟定明年出口250万公吨棕油到印度及中国;且印度在抵制大马棕油一个月后重新向我国购买棕油,料可支撑棕油价格成长。

此外,投资者不妨投资国内符合伊斯兰教义的股票,如JAKS资源(JAKS,4723,主要板建筑)和NOTION集团(NOTION,0083,主要板科技)。

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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12118 on: April 13, 2020, 06:44:26 PM »
(巴库/迪拜13日讯)石油输出国组织和俄罗斯等盟友(OPEC+)同意实施纪录规模的减产行动以支撑油价,并称他们与包括美国在内的其它产油国达成了一项前所未有的协议,将全球石油供应量减少20%。

全球采取措施遏制新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延,破坏了燃料需求并推低油价、导致石油生产国预算吃紧并重创美国页岩油产业。页岩油行业因生产成本较高而易收到低油价的冲击。

OPEC+结束连续4天的漫长谈判后表示,已同意在5月至6月减产每日970万桶。此前美国总统也曾施压要求阻止油价跌势。

减产规模创纪录

此次减产规模为纪录最大,是2008年金融危机期间前次纪录减产规模的4倍以上。

产油国将在6月之后缓慢放松减产措施,但减产举措将持续至2022年4月。

根据《路透》看到的声明草案,OPEC+表示,预计全球减产规模将超过每日2000万桶,相等于全球供应量的20%,5月1日生效。

OPEC+消息人士表示,有效的减产规模包括非OPEC+产油国的减产、一些OPEC+成员国自愿加大减产幅度以及全球主要石油消费国采购战略石油库存等。

OPEC的波斯湾成员国的减产将高于协议数量。特朗普曾威胁沙地,如不修正市场的供应过剩问题,将祭出石油关税,因为低油价已使得美国石油业陷入严重困境。

加拿大和挪威已表示愿意减产。美国则说,由于油价低迷,其产量将自动大幅下降。基于立法问题,美国很难与OPEC等集团同步行动。

另外, 此前墨西哥担心减产会打乱负债沉重的墨西哥石油(PEMEX)复苏的计划,因而对其被要求减产的数量多所犹豫。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12119 on: April 13, 2020, 06:45:33 PM »
(吉隆坡13日讯)随著政府继续延长行动管制令至4月28日,部份分析员担忧,管制令将为市场带来更深远的打击,国家经济和消费的复原速率将无可避免地放缓。在最坏情况下,今年的国内生产总值(GDP)可能倒退4%。

由于经济活动将额外停摆2个星期,丰隆投行把大马今年的GDP预测从萎缩2%,进一步调低至萎缩4%。较为乐观的MIDF投行则把GDP预测从成长2.7%,调低至微增1%。换句话说,这额外14天的行动管制将抹去我国约1.7个至2个百分点的GDP。

大华继显证券分析员指出,政府延长行动管制令,料对国内经济带来更久远且更深层次的打击因为政府提供的资金援助,包括员工薪金补贴、中小型企业(SME)贷款等,可能仍不足以支撑许多SME继续生存下去。

“据了解,不少SME零售商已经在租金上违约,以保存现金。”

分析员补充,新冠肺炎引发的各国互相禁运现象导致企业迁徙潮外资再起,但行管令一再延长,将降低大马的吸引力,外资可能不会把大马列为落户首选,因为在管制期间,电子代工商(EMS)等制造业者只被允许有限度地复工。

丰隆投行分析员亦引述大马厂商公会(FMM)的调查,指1120家受访厂家中,只有71%受访者可以撑过4个星期不开工的挑战。

在该分析员追踪的领域中,有部份业者得以在严格条规下复工,包括科技相关公司如UWC公司(UWC,5292,主板科技股)和伟特科技(VITROX,0097,主板科技股);即将部份复工的电子代工商如威铖集团(VS,6963,主板工业股),航天制造业务如多元重工业(DRBHCOM,1619,主板消费股)的CTRM及合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费股);整辆进口(CBU)车商--BERMAZ汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板消费股)和汽车零件配饰生产商Pecca集团(PECCA,5271,主板工业股);以及工程进度已达90%以上的建筑股等等。

下修马股盈利预测

由于行管令对经济的冲击,分析员把今年及明年的马股市场盈利预测分别下修7.1%和5.3%,并将今年杪的富时大马综指目标设在1440点。

在个股方面,分析员认为,投资者应紧守高周息率,而且业务有望安度至行管令结束后的股项。他继续维持电讯、公用事业、产业信托(REIT),以及部份消费股和电子领域的“加码”评级,并劝告投资者避开航空、油气等周期性领域,还有重工业公司。

丰隆投行分析员对马股短期前景更为悲观,指综指目前虽从3月19日的低点1220点反弹了11.3%,但新冠肺炎带来的经济萧条恐怕比2008年金融风暴还严重,当前的回升或许无法持久,只是“死猫反弹(dead cat bounce)”。

综指陷W型态走势

该分析员预测,综指接下来会进入W型态的走势,谷底可能会落在1029点至1089点左右,只有当马股来到相近区域,才可考虑进场。他认为,3项风险可能令综指挫跌至上述预测谷底,分别是管制令延长到4月28日之后、5月出炉的上市公司业绩比预期差劲和中美贸易战重新升级。

周一,综指下跌1.47点或0.11%,报1356.03点,即将复工的威铖集团在上周五突然窜起6仙或6.8%后,周一则交投炙热,下跌1.5仙或1.6%,报92.5仙,成交量为4584万股,是第12大热门股。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12120 on: April 13, 2020, 06:47:48 PM »
(吉隆坡13日讯)随着行动管制令(MCO)再次延长,以及缺乏政府更多支持计划,汽车领域深受打击,虽部分细分行业将可营运但效果甚微,最坏情况下,今年汽车总销量料将大幅削减至50万辆以下。

MIDF预计,2020年汽车行业盈利将按年下降51%。

MIDF研究假设,行动管制令未来进一步扩展到第四阶段为基本情况,今年汽车总销量(TIV)目标将按年收缩16.5%,远大于之前预测萎缩4%,从预期58万1367辆大幅削减至50万4850辆。

全年销量料不到50万辆

但是,若假设最坏的情况,行动管制令再进一步扩展到第5阶段(即直到5月底),该行预计,全年汽车销量将跌至48万至49万辆之间。

并且,鉴于对总销量下降预测,整体汽车业2020至2021年总收入料将分别削减46%和26%。



汽车股收入跌幅双位数
甚至陷入亏损

MBM资源(MBMR,5983,主板消费产品服务组)、柏马汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板消费产品服务组)和合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费产品服务组)今年收入将按年下降31%、22%和44%,而陈唱摩多(TCHONG,4405,主板消费产品服务组)更是被看淡将亏损7400万令吉,相比2019财政年达4700万令吉的核心盈利。

鉴于遏制疫情所需的时间不确定性及对国内宏观经济前景的影响,汽车业风险预测仍偏高。

“与2008-2009年金融危机或2016年该领域下行周期情况不同,车商面临强制关闭,这意味着管制期间内收入几乎为零。”

此外,考虑到行动管制令延长对公司收益、就业安全和消费者信心的深刻负面影响,该行认为,以前预测被压抑的需求将推动复苏可能已消失,消费者预计转变为“生存”模式,短期内对可自由支配的支出几乎没有优先权,管制令结束后的复苏情况可能会被推迟。

再加上,MIDF指出,2008-2009年金融危机期间的汽车报废补贴计划,刺激购买新车的欲望,支撑当年下行周期,2009年汽车总销量仅按年收缩2%,相对于原本更悲观的预期。

但考虑到如今政府财政状况紧张,在缺乏支持计划下,该行预计,目前汽车业将比当年出现更大幅度的收缩。

据初步迹象表明,基于汽车被归纳为非必要服务或产品,管制期间无法营运,3月汽车销量(国产车和特定非国产车)按年收窄47%至63%。

不过,第三阶段管制期,政府已选择特定部门恢复运营,当中包括汽车和航空航天领域。

其中汽车业,允许恢复的特定细分整装进口(CBU)、零件和售后服务如保养。

MIDF指出,作为马来西亚最大的整装进口的出口商,柏马汽车持有30%股权的大马马自达(MMSB)将是主要受益者,后者每季将出口2000至3000辆CX5和CX8SUV车型到东盟部分市场。

艾芬黄氏认为,大多数汽车业者将寻求国际贸工部的进一步厘清,以了解最新要求。

根据该行的初步理解,汽车制造商可能仅可基于出口而开始生产车辆。

“这对整体汽车业的影响甚小,因为汽车出口应该仅占不到大马汽车总销量的5%。”

与此同时,MIDF预计,零件供应与售后服务恢复的目标一致,主要是为满足市场的更换需求,新车生产仍然受到限制,所以零件部分的原厂代工(OEM)的供应仍将放缓。

航空相关业务放宽

另一方面,政府对航空业也亮起绿灯,艾芬黄氏料这将利于合顺宇航有限公司(UMW Aerospace)和多元资源工业(DRBHCOM,1619,主板消费产品服务组)的航空相关业务。

合顺宇航正参与劳斯莱斯Trent 1000引擎的风扇机匣(fancase)组装供应,计划今年末季开始推出Trent 7000引擎的风扇机匣组装。

艾芬黄氏基于汽车需求下降、竞争激烈和较高的投入成本压力将对汽车造成冲击下,维持“减持”评价。

综合上述,MIDF则将评级下调至“负面”,主要看淡股项为合顺和陈唱摩多。

MIDF建议转向防御性行业,以应对近期宏观不利因素。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12121 on: April 14, 2020, 07:35:42 PM »
(吉隆坡14日讯)据亚洲房地产网站PropertyGuru调查,新冠肺炎疫情和行动管制令(MCO)已对国内2万5000名房地产经纪的工作带来冲击,74%经纪更做好心理准备,在这困境下收入将减少。

为防堵疫情蔓延,政府3月18日起落实行动限管令,所有线下营销活动亦随之停办。Property Guru大马区经理谢尔顿周一在脸书直播时表示,在工作暂停的情况下下,38%经纪预计收入明显减少;33%经纪则预计略微减少。

“总结来说,疫情和行动管制令已对全国经纪,带来负面冲击。”

投入房产科技领域

谢尔顿表示,疫情爆发后,房屋贷款申请已明显下降,意味房屋销售减少,这对负债率较高的发展商而言是一大挑战。无论如何,发展商和经纪都会从疫情汲取教训,包括投入房产科技领域,如经由虚拟导览,向潜在购买者推销房屋。

虽然如此,希尔顿在另一项访问中表示,在疫情之后,大马产业市场不一定会出现最坏的情况,因为我国目前的财务基本面其实相对的稳健。此外,在疫情暴发之前,有关当局已经推出许多措施,解决房产市场下跌的局面。

无论如何,他指出,在亚洲金融风暴期间,房产价格下跌了9.4%,这最坏的情况是因为出现金融危机。这次的疫情及行动管制令无疑将对原本已经疲弱的购屋情绪,带来进一步的打击。

据Property Guru发布的“大马房地产市场指数报告”,受供过于求和买气下降影响,去年年末季国内房价指数为88.9点,按年和按季下滑4.81点及1.04点之馀,亦刷下2016年以来新低。

另外, 去年末季国内房屋供应为348.84点,按年和按季上升83.08点和21.36点之馀,同样创下2016年以来最高水平,反映国内供过于求问题仍未改善。

尽管目前存在房价下跌、贷款利率下降等有利购屋因素,但谢尔顿直播时提醒,财务稳定者才适合在疫情和限制指令期限内购买房子,毕竟未来大马经济动向为何,仍是未知数。

疫情结束 买气回升

另一边厢,Property Guru预计,疫情一结束,国内房屋买气有望回升。至于买家购屋动机,该组织发布的《PropertyGuru大马消费者情绪调查》指出,在2020年上半年,有47%买家购屋旨在投资;31%买家旨在提供更大居住空间予父母和孩子;28%买家希望住在更靠近工作地点及更多基本设施的地区;27%买家为自己寻找更大私人空间。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12122 on: April 14, 2020, 08:06:40 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR (April 14): Malaysian palm oil futures recouped early losses on Tuesday supported by the prospect of a lower-than-expected fall in exports between April 1-15, although concerns over rising stockpiles due to slowing demand capped gains.

The benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 1 ringgit or 0.04% to 2,247 ringgit (US$518.94) per tonne, after dropping nearly 3% in the previous session.

Data due on Wednesday, is expected to show that exports fell 4%-6% between April 1-15. Malaysia's palm oil exports in April 1-10 fell between 6.6%-12% from the month before, according to cargo surveyors.

"The market closed a tad higher on lower volume, indicating the uncertainty over the demand in the days ahead," said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn Bhd.

"The recent selloff looks a little overdone and we are seeing some good buying interest in the local cash market."

India, the world's biggest importer of palm oil, said on Monday imports of refined palm oil could recommence, after being restricted in January, although conditions were attached.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday extended a nationwide lockdown until May 3 as the number of coronavirus cases crossed 10,000, despite a three-week shutdown.

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, with investors apparently unconvinced that record supply cuts could soon balance markets pummelled by the virus outbreak, though a predicted plunge in U.S. shale output provided some support.

Weaker crude oil futures make palm a less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.

Dalian's most active soybean oil contract fell 1.9%, while its palm oil contract fell 1.5%. Soy oil prices on the Board of Trade dropped 0.48%.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils, as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12123 on: April 14, 2020, 11:56:44 PM »
(吉隆坡14日讯)政府多次展延行动管制令料将打击公司盈利、就业安全和消费者信心,分析员预计,今年汽车总销量将下滑16.5%至50万4850辆,写下13年新低。



MIDF证券研究在报告指出,今年汽车总销量料大跌16.5%,业者盈利恐按年重挫51%。

“若在最坏情况下,管制令延至第5阶段即5月底,汽车总销量预计将降至50万辆以下。”

国内的汽车总销量前景不乐观。
国内的汽车总销量前景不乐观。
过去数据显示,汽车总销量上一次跌破50万辆是在2007年,当时销量仅48万辆左右。

MIDF证券研究指出,在2008/09年全球金融危机期间,政府在600亿令吉刺激经济配套下,推出了汽车报废补贴计划,进而缓解了当时汽车行业的压力。

这项措施当时刺激了购买新车的需求,尽管我国在2009年陷入衰退,但同年的汽车总销量仅按年萎缩了2%。但这一次政府财政状况不佳,在没有政府援助的情况下,该行预计汽车业今年的萎缩将远大过2009年的时候。

基于管制期延长冲击商家,MIDF证券研究指出,之前可能存在的任何被压抑的需求,也很可能消失。消费者在短期内可能转向“生存”模式,不再优先重视可支配支出。

由于控制疫情的时间仍不定,加上对国内宏观前景的冲击,该行指出,汽车领域的风险仍高筑。

“与金融危机或2016年业界下行周期不同,汽车业者被迫强制停业,这意味着业界在这期间的收入几乎为零。管制令解除后,消费者信心可能减弱,恢复营运的复苏也将随之推迟。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12124 on: April 15, 2020, 09:35:20 PM »
(吉隆坡15日讯)面对2019冠状病毒病疫情冲击,各行各业设法求存,国内已有餐饮业开始展开第一轮的裁员行动,首当其冲的是外劳。

马来西亚雪隆姑苏慎忠行餐饮业公会会长拿督林德来接受《南洋商报》电访时透露,面对疫情冲击,裁员考量一定有,该公会会员也已开始裁退外劳。



林德来指出,这是万不得已的,因为业者不知道政府何时会允许业者正常营运,唯有先逐步削减外劳人手。

“尽管业者获政府批准运作,也不确定生意如何,毕竟市场停顿太久,人们想要消费却也会因为没有收入或减少消费。”

他表示,餐饮业聘请的长工,如头手,二手只占总员工人数的少部分,大部分员工都是外劳。

“雇用每一名外劳都花很多钱,虽说表面看仅是1000多令吉的月薪,但实际上加起手续等其他方面的费用,雇用每一名外劳都超过3000令吉。”

林德来透露,本身无法估计餐饮业聘雇多少外劳,因为这胥视每一家食肆本身的规模,因此无法预测会有多少从事餐饮业的外劳被辞退。



该公会的雪隆区会员就超过2000 名,另外还有10多个分会。


林德来:有顾客要求把宴席订单改期,从改到年尾再改为明年,因为没人知道疫情何时过去。
盼拟良策振兴经济

林德来希望政府体恤人民困苦,尤其希望能帮助商人,拟定各方面的良好政策,振兴社会经济,让人民依然能‘找到吃’。

“要知道政府的简单几个字,分分钟会让人民付出惨重代价。

“行动管控令第二阶段限制人们不可出门两个星期是小事,但两个星期后又延长两个星期,真的是让人们没法子,希望政府为人民设想。”

管控令若延长业者恐难支撑

林德来坦言,餐饮业者目前暂时还有能力支付员工薪金,但管控令若继续延长,业者无法开业,接下来就无法确定,是否还可支撑。

“管控令下,人们无法出门,我们无法营业完全没有收入,但还须支付员工薪水、缴纳租金、水电费,影响非常大。”

他说,事发突然,不能因没有收入就不支付员工薪金,毕竟这不是大家能预知及想要的。

他坦言,不仅餐饮业,各行各业甚至是全球各国亦因冠病而遭受巨大冲击,例如香港,就有1000多间大大小小的餐厅结业。

“我国餐饮业或面临同样的后果,但相信小型食肆已有数家面临结业,毕竟大型酒楼在经济良好时,在晚市也未必会满客,只有婚宴、寿宴或大型宴席,才会有满客的情况。”

林德来透露,今年接获的宴席订单,亦有顾客要求改期,从改到年尾再改为明年,因为大家都不确定这波疫情几时才会结束。

“有些顾客坚持要我们退款,但本着体谅之心,打破一直以来不退款的行规。我们真的面对很多的问题,包括员工、生意、费用,因此结业也是没办法的。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12125 on: April 15, 2020, 11:40:35 PM »
(吉隆坡15日讯)随着行动管控期多次延长,疫情冲击变得愈加显著,分析员预测,若管控令第三次延长,今年的汽车总销量将会下挫至50万4850辆,意味着按年萎缩16.5%。



为了彻底对抗2019冠状病毒病疫情散播,政府第二次宣布延长管控期2周,MIDF投资研究分析员预估今年汽车总销量会录得更大的跌幅。

报告补充,假设政府第三次宣布延长管控期,分析员预测总销量会从先前预测的58万1367辆,走低至50万4580辆。2019年的总销量为60万4287万辆。

“在最糟糕情况下,即管控令第四次延长至5月底,我们预料总销量会失守50万辆大关,跌落至48万到49万辆之间。”

配合今年销量预测的下调,分析员一并下砍今明财年汽车领域盈利预测,幅度为46%和26%。

“尽管去年领域盈利萎缩18%,但我们估计今年仍可能会大幅下跌。”



其中,分析员预测本财年MBM资源(MBMR,5983,主板消费股)盈利会跌31%,柏马汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板消费股)和合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费股),料分别走低22%与44%。

至于陈唱摩多(TCHONG,4405,主板消费股),则预计会亏损7400万令吉;2019财年核心净利为4700万令吉。

分析员说:“不同于2008年全球金融风暴及2016年领域下行周期,业者目前必须停业,意味着几乎没有收入。”

消费情绪逊色

况且,企业营运恢复还可能会推迟,因为消费者情绪可能在管控期后仍然逊色。

“我们先前认为在疫情解决后,受抑制的需求可能会恢复。但随着管控令延长,考虑对企业盈利、就业保障和消费者情绪的冲击,我们认为受抑制的需求现在可能已消散。”

分析员补充,消费者目前可能以进入“生存”模式,短期内可自由分配的收入吃紧。

因此,将原先“中和”的领域评级,下修至“负面”,最不看好合顺与陈唱摩多,并建议投资者把目光投放在更有防御性的股项,如拥有更好盈利展望与现金流的公用事业。



萎缩比金融风暴可怕

由于政府财务吃紧,因此,汽车领域不会获得任何援助,这也是汽车销量看跌的主要因素。

回顾全球金融危机时期,大马政府推出的600亿令吉振兴配套中,包括汽车报废补贴计划,派发给拥有超过10年车龄的车主价值5000令吉回扣,可用来购买宝腾和第二国产车的新车。

尽管我国当时陷入金融危机,但这项举措效果明显,大幅缓冲汽车销售冲击,2009年总销量仅按年走跌2%。

不过,鉴于目前政府财务状况吃紧,此次的振兴配套却没有这类帮助汽车领域的举措。

“这证实了我们估计此次的领域萎缩会严重过2009年的预测。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12126 on: April 15, 2020, 11:41:56 PM »
(芙蓉15日讯)餐馆酒楼在疫情期间“零收入”,每月还须承担庞大开销,很多都靠“老本”支撑,一些业者因吃不消而濒临倒闭,也有者选择壮士断臂,暂时歇业一年止损,疫后再战江湖。

马来西亚姑苏厨业茶酒楼联合总会长黄守群今日接受《南洋商报》访问时坦承,此艰难时刻,业者均以全部的家底苦撑维持,一旦资金断链,势必歇业了结。



“特别是那些经营聚餐宴筵的大型餐馆,疫情管控期间没生意做,对餐饮业的冲击影响估计会持续8个月,很多筵席订单均取消;假设3个月后疫情受到控制,餐饮业恢复运作,生意也不会迅速恢复如昔。”

90%酒楼没法外卖

他说,最近有众多同业叫苦连天,没生意做且每月须承担大笔开销,包括租金、水电费及员工薪酬,一个拥有宴会厅的大型酒楼,每月开销就高20万余令吉。

他说,餐饮业聘请的外劳占员工总数的三分之二,目前业界以支付半薪或无薪休假的策略维持,第3个月则将视实时情况才能做下一步的打算。

“有些餐馆酒楼虽提供外卖服务,赚些小钱帮补,也让员工能打发时间,但对做套餐的大型酒楼来说,这却行不通,因为疫情时期,消费者都采取节约消费的生活方式,不可能到大型酒楼打包,估计有90%的餐馆酒楼都没法经营打包外卖的生意。”



他说,国内拥有宴会厅的大型餐馆酒楼目前都面对沉重的租金负担,在柔佛及吉隆坡的租金最低为4万令吉,因此,希望业主能体恤业者没有收入,减免50%租金。

“即使扣除50%租金,餐馆酒楼每月还须承担约10万令吉营运开销。”

他说,那些装备巨型冰箱储放食材的酒楼,每月还须缴付3000令吉至8000令吉的电费,因此,政府应该给餐馆酒楼更高的电费折扣。

他促请政府在餐馆酒楼能在疫情下倖存下来及恢复运营时,给予业者最少一年免缴销售与服务税(SST)的税务奖掖,让业者缓一口气。


吴亚声
吴亚声:开销庞大餐饮业每天亏

马来西亚姑苏厨业茶酒楼联合总会顾问吴亚声说,尽管银行已允许延迟6个月缴还贷款,但每月还是有庞大开销,加上目前政府推出的经济振兴配套无法协助酒楼餐馆渡过难关,导致餐饮界每天面对亏损。

他以他的酒楼举例,过去每天至少要赚取8000令吉才能维持,但现在通过外卖仅能赚取最高2000令吉,以致每天亏损。

“亏损情况下依然提供外卖服务,主要是让顾客记住酒楼招牌。”

他强调,很多同业都是靠“老本”维持,一些撑不来的同业最终会面临倒闭;他推测各行业需时1年才会恢复如常运作。他说,政府虽有提供雇员薪资补贴,但无论通过电邮或拨电询问,至今仍没回复,无法提出申请。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12127 on: April 16, 2020, 12:55:30 AM »
KUALA LUMPUR (April 15): Xidelang Holdings Ltd says today it is going into the production of reusable and washable protective face masks, in collaboration with Fujian BiTiChong Baby Products Co Ltd.

It will be setting up a new material technology division for this venture, and it will be sourcing the necessary material and technology for the products from BiTiChong, the company said in a press statement today.

BiTiChong is principally involved in the development and production of baby and healthcare products, including medical-use and regular-use face masks, it said.

Both parties inked a collaboration agreement on April 13 for the new venture, under which Xidelang will be in charge of manufacture and sale of the masks.

Xidelang is positive on the new venture.

“The demand for stylish, reusable and washable protective masks are anticipated to be huge and on rising trend even after the COVID-19 epidemic, as the lifestyle and daily hygienic habits of the general public are expected to change,” it said.

Xidelang shares closed unchanged at seven sen today, giving it a market capitalisation of RM126.35 million, after some 20.42 million shares were traded.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12128 on: April 16, 2020, 12:57:19 AM »
Almost every US state has issued a stay-at-home order and many businesses have temporarily shuttered in effort to contain the virus.

(Bloomberg) -- US retail sales and factory output posted historic declines in March, and other figures showed that the worst is yet to come.

The value of overall retail sales fell 8.7% from the prior month, the biggest decline in records dating back to 1992, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday.

Federal Reserve figures showed US factory output dropped in March by the most since 1946, just after World War II ended.

But surveys in April looked even worse, with manufacturing in New York state and sentiment among US homebuilders plummeting by previously unthinkable amounts.

Coronavirus containment measures escalated quickly in the month as states began closing restaurants and bars to dine-in customers and urging residents to stay home.

Now, almost every state has issued a stay-at-home order and many businesses have temporarily shuttered in the wake.

The month was also defined by millions of layoffs, which have continued into April, and sharply reduced spending power.

One bright spot: Food and beverage stores posted a record 25.6% surge as Americans stocked up on essential goods; sales also rose at health and personal care stores, general merchandise stores and nonstore retailers.

But most categories were down sharply, with clothing stores’ sales falling by half, while restaurants and bars were down 26.5%.

"When you shut an economy down, you’re basically turning the lights off. So aside from grocery stores and whatever they can get online, there’s really not much going on out there,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.

"At some stage when the economy starts to reopen you’re going to get a bounce, but the bounce is not going to come anywhere close to replacing what was lost for a long, long time.”

US stocks fell, while 10-year Treasury yields were lower and the dollar strengthened.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a note that it continues to expect a 40% annualized decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

"March retail sales posted the worst decline on record, but there are compelling reasons to consider that the stunning collapse did not reflect the true extent of the pullback.

The Census Bureau noted irregular reporting of results, as many businesses had either curtailed or ceased operations -- presumably those hardest hit were the least able to collate and report results.”

"While personal consumption may start to come back in the third quarter, a downturn in business investment will linger. The sector may not start to recover until the end of the year at best, according to our forecast.”

Two surveys released Wednesday highlighted the effects of economic shutdowns.

The New York Fed’s general business conditions index, covering manufacturers in the state, tumbled 56.7 points to minus 78.2, the lowest in records back to 2001.

US homebuilder sentiment plunged in April to the lowest level in almost eight years as the pandemic kept potential buyers quarantined and paralyzed construction, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

"The March data is bad but the April data is likely to be even worse because for a good half of March, things were still open,” said Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Barclays Plc.

   
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12129 on: April 16, 2020, 12:58:48 AM »
(吉隆坡15日讯)国际货币基金(IMF)预计我国今年失业率会高达4.9%,但国内经济学家认为,政府推出的振兴措施可以缓解失业压力,有信心今年失业率可维持在4%以下。

IMF昨日在公布的《世界经济展望》中指出,大马今年失业率达4.9%,远高于去年的3.3%,但明年失业率可回降到较正常的水平3.4%。



大马统计局昨日公布的数据显示,今年2月失业率为3.3%,比1月的3.2%高0.1%;2月的失业人数是53万5200人,比1月增加2.6%。

统计局首席统计师拿督斯里莫哈末乌兹尔博士指出,今年2月的失业率其实尚未受到2019冠状病毒病疫情影响,但预料疫情导致的行动管控将从3月开始影响失业率。

MIDF投资研究经济学家今日在报告中写道,我国成功连续28个月将失业率维持在3.5%以下,同时,相信今年就业市场的稳定会为大马经济打好基础,推动内需稳健增长。

200416x1102_noresize

就业市场稳定



“另外,虽然今年上半年有疫情和外需疲弱,但我们认为大马就业市场会维持稳定。”

MIDF将今年失业率预测上调至3.8%,并预计目前的外围挑战将从次季开始影响就业市场,以及行动管控会对许多小型企业造成打击。

“不过,我们依然有信心失业率可以维持在4%以下,并且全年会维持充分就业状态,因为政府推出的振兴措施可以缓和失业压力。”

MIDF认为,强劲内需、低通胀率及利率,以及经济振兴配套效应会继续支撑大马今年经济继续增长。

肯纳格投行研究经济学家万贺铭和团队今日也在报告中指出,预计一些政策包括薪资津贴计划和对微型企业的特别补助,可以稍微缓解失业率的涨势。

肯纳格预计大马今年的失业率会达4.1%,同时估计未来数月之内失业率将会大幅走高,因为行动管控对商业活动造成影响,以及内外需求疲软。

200416x1103_noresize

服务业增聘

MIDF指出,2020年1月的就业征聘有64万9000个,比起去年12月有改善,但仍然低于平均。
不过,高价值工种的就业机会却有改善,这包括了各领域的征聘,但不包括初级职业征聘在内。
“相对比较,专业人士的比例,由2019年12月的2.3%,在今年1月上升至3.1%。高级职员和技术人员的招聘情况也相似。”
按领域区别的话,服务业的征聘比例扩大,而建筑业和制造业则齐齐走低,因为投资开销低迷和全球经济不稳定。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12130 on: April 16, 2020, 01:00:23 AM »
(芙蓉15日讯)马来西亚机器厂商总会会长拿督杜元成认为,政府管控期间开放9 个领域,并制订雇主须遵守的严苛复工条件,包括雇主须承担员工复工期间感染2019冠状病毒病的医药费,令雇主甚感为难。

他说,虽然政府给了业者复工希望,允准一些领域运作,并让商家通过国际贸工部官网提出复工与运营的申请,但苛刻的复工条件对业者很不公平,却让业者止步。



“商家面对停业的损失,还须付薪金给员工,负担与压力山大,若申请获准复工后还要承担风险,实在是把业者迫向困境。”

对于官网出现瘫痪现象,商家对没法申请复工而怨声四起,他说,贸工部官网是让业者申请复工的唯一管道,没法提交申请令人甚感无奈、无助和担忧,对政府没做好充分准备感不满和失望。

“此非常时期,政府应谨慎为逐步放宽或批准部分领域行业复工,做好周全准备,并重新修订复工的标准作业指南和条件,体恤业者的难处,才能助业者与国家经济走出困境。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12131 on: April 16, 2020, 01:07:35 AM »
(伦敦15日讯)长期的抗击病毒封锁措施可能会使英国本季度经济萎缩三分之一以上,使失业人数增加超过200万,并使预算赤字达到二战以来的最高水平。

在英国预算责任办公室(OBR)周二发布上述可怕预测之际,国际货币基金(IMF)也警告称,英国经济今年的萎缩幅度将超过金融危机肆虐时期。



总部在华盛顿的IMF预计2020年全年英国的国内生产总值(GDP)暴跌6.5%。不过相比之前,OBR预测的一种情况更加悲观,该情形假设英国保持封锁三个月以控制冠状病毒大流行,这种情况下,英国GDP将萎缩13%。

OBR将这些数字描述为“参考情景”,而不是预测,因为它不知道封锁将持续多长时间。OBR还假设会有另外三个月逐步取消封锁的时间。

报告称,短期内对经济的打击将是严重的,但也将是暂时性的。

失业率飙至10%

约翰逊政府已为受到三周多严格封锁措施的公司和个人,提供了600亿英镑(约3240亿令吉)的直接支持。其中,包括承诺向遭到雇主暂时解职的雇员支付80%的工资,以及加大对失业人员的支持。



OBR在其分析中说:“政府采取行动的直接成本可能很高,但我们可以确信,无所作为的成本最终会更高。”

在这种情况下,第二季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)将下降35%,但迅速反弹。目前不到4%的失业率将在第二季度飙升至10%,本财政年度政府借贷将增加2180亿英镑。

OBR称,这将使预算赤字增至2730亿英镑,占GDP的14%,而现在为2%,并使负债一度超过GDP的100%。这种恶化既反映了政府援助的成本,也反映了经济不景气给税收带来的打击。

对此报告,财政大臣里斯苏纳克承认经济受到的打击将“非常严重”,全球各经济体也将如此。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12132 on: April 16, 2020, 10:41:12 PM »
(纽约16日讯)美国财政部公布的数据显示,新冠疫情大流行之前,外资2月持有的美债规模创新高,从1月的6.857兆美元增至7.066兆美元。

外国投资者为了追逐收益率继续购进美国公债。日本和中国2月连续第2个月增持美国公债。

日本仍是最大的美债海外持有国,2月美债持仓从1月的1.211兆美元升至纪录高位1.268兆美元。

中国是美债的第2大海外持有国,2月美债持仓亦从1月的1.078兆美元升至1.092兆美元。

BMO资本市场资深利率策略师希尔表示。投资者对美债的购兴仍是受到收益率的推动。

希尔对中国2月增持美债感到惊讶,因为当时疫情已经在中国肆虐。

外界预期是,中国央行将卖出美债以支撑走软的人民币汇率。疫情导致的经济影响削弱了人民币。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12133 on: April 16, 2020, 10:41:54 PM »
(吉隆坡16日讯)为配合石油输出国组织及盟友(OPEC+)同意减产石油,大马5月及6月将每日减产13万6000桶石油,数量远超过预期。

除打击采矿和采石业生产总值外,市场人士担忧,该减产量亦会拖累2020年国内生产总值(GDP)。

打击矿业

大众投行分析员指出,每日13万6000桶石油减产量,几乎是此前削减幅度的7至9倍,这可能打击工业生产指数内的矿业指数。

值得一提的是,2019年矿业指数按年下滑1.7%,而分析员预计2020年将延续颓势,挫17.2%。

至于2020年采矿采石业生产总值,分析员预计将减少2.6%。事实上,2019年采矿采石业生产总值已按年下跌1.5%。

分析员补充,尽管OPEC+在7月至12月的减产目标为每日800万桶原油,2021年起的16个月内每日减产600万桶,但我国不曾表明今年7月起减产多少原油,意味减产量提高或减少仍是未知数。

新冠疫情肆虐下,全球各地对石油需求锐减,石油价格面临严峻挑战。分析员认为,此次需要更长时间,才能看见价格复苏:“尽管减产可支撑油价,但需求疲软是更大问题,新冠肺炎带来的问题较特殊,可能需要更长时间才能解决。”

分析员也说:“新冠疫情已肆虐全球200多个国家或地区,约200万人受感染,情况比严重呼吸道综合症(SARS)严重。先进经济体如美国、英国、欧元区,也对原油等大宗商品价格表示悲观。”

分析员亦认为,OPEC+的减产协议,只能阻止油价持续下滑,短时间内不可能带动油价上涨。

惟,若疫情冲击已见顶,或8月起开始消退,石油需求将在北半球进入冬季时激增,有助拉动价格反弹。分析员预计,4月至7月的布伦特原油价格为每桶30美元;8月至10月为每桶36美元;全年平均价为36至39美元。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12134 on: April 16, 2020, 10:42:49 PM »
PUTRAJAYA (April 16): Malaysia, the world’s top rubber glove producer, expects to export 225 billion units worth some RM20 billion this year, up from 170 billion units valued at RM17.3 billion last year.

Deputy Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Willie Mongin said the Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA) estimates global demand for rubber gloves at 330 billion units.

Willie said Malaysia is also the main rubber glove supplier to the medical sector.

"Our country’s rubber glove industry is very important as exports from Malaysia supply 65 percent of global demand,” he said in a statement today.

Willie said the Government through the International Trade and Industry Ministry and the Health Ministry has agreed to allow factories making medical and surgical devices especially rubber gloves to continue to operate during the Movement Control Order (MCO) period.

He said rubber products manufacturers allowed to operate during the MCO period should adhere to the standard operating procedure.

On reports about two rubber glove factories identified as having caused environmental pollution, he said the problem should not recur and the rubber products manufacturing industry should comply with the regulations.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12135 on: April 16, 2020, 10:43:24 PM »
(吉隆坡16日讯)新冠肺炎疫情持续扩散,房地产代理预计未来几个月将出现更多积极卖家,房地产价格恐怕将下跌高达20%。

大马房地产代理公会(MIEA)主席林文彬在东协房产网上论坛上说,受新冠肺炎影响,大马房地产市场将从先前的“卖方市场”转向“买方市场”,房产价格料将下降10%至20%。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12136 on: April 16, 2020, 10:44:57 PM »
(吉隆坡16日讯)国际货币基金预估今年亚洲经济成长恐归零,加上国际油价跌穿20美元,创18年来新低,以及美国零售销售创历来最大跌幅,美国一系列疲弱经济数据,反映出冠病疫情蔓延对经济的影响程度,隔晚美股挫逾1%,拖累亚太区股市下滑,马股全天起伏不定,最终以1386.53点挂收,微跌0.09%。

马股早盘低开1381.96点,尔后走势持续下跌,一度下挫9.49点至最低1378.30点,随后投资者趁低进场下成功翻盘,盘中更是曾攀升至1398.53点高位,但临尾失守,吐出涨幅,全天下跌1.26点。

不过,与综指相反,全股项指数升15.5点至9625点,创业板指数起116.81点至4424.6点。

全场股项也是升多跌少,上升股达624只、下跌股为253只、另有381只无起落。总成交量达48亿2814万股,值26亿6691万令吉。

基于需求疲弱继续压制棕油价格下,综指成分股中相关股项如合成(HAPSENG,3034,主板工业产品服务组)领跌11仙,紧接着吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植组)下滑10仙,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植组)和森种植(SIMEPLT,5285,主板种植组)也各跌1仙。

其中,有意攫获疫情中的商机,开发外送业务的LAMBO集团(LAMBO,0018,创业板科技组)和进军生产可清洗且重复使用的防护口罩的喜得狼控股(XDL,5156,主板消费产品服务组)被投资者热捧,分别以3亿4400万3600股和1亿8406万2500股交投量,成为全场最热门第一、二。

美国公司业绩和经济数据疲弱,凸显了因为疫情造成的暂时经济停顿所承受的严重打击,隔夜美股下跌1.86%,拖累亚股跌多升少。

国际货币基金组织周四表示,亚洲今年经济成长将陷入停滞,为60年来首见,因新型冠状病毒对于区域服务业及主要出口地构成的打击“前所未见”。

截至下午5时,日本日经指数挫1.33%,香港恒生指数跌0.58%,台湾加权跌0.67%,韩国综合指数则持平,惟中国上证综指涨0.31%,因全球投资人信心回升,但涨势温和,中国即将公布的3月当季国内生产总值(GDP)数据料将显示经济出现近30年来的首次萎缩。

在美元走强情况下,马币走势疲弱,贬至4.3750令吉。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12137 on: April 17, 2020, 09:49:44 PM »
(吉隆坡17日讯)国油称将继续提高营运效率及严控开销成本,来对抗当前疫情和油价暴跌两大“黑天鹅”所带来的冲击。



国油今日在文告中指,为了维持公司业务的韧性与永续性,将会加强抗疫策略力度来缓冲2019冠状病毒病对短中长期业务的冲击。

“纵观肆虐全球的大流行病,这对企业造成极大的干扰,且还引发油价的暴跌。我们坚持我们的信念,即首先保障员工安危,然后确保业务在整个价值链中的安全和最佳营运。”

为了确保能为社区、企业和政府提供稳定的日常所需能源,国油称公司首要任务是确保业务可安全有效地营运。

“在管控令期间,我们正与相关当局紧密合作,以应对必要的需求。”

另外,国油称正紧密观察大马及业务涉足国家的发展事态,并将遵守当地机构的指示。



自冠病爆发以来,国油迅速采取数种防护措施,保障员工的安全,及降低病毒传播的风险。

“在每个营运现场,我们采取必要防护措施及额外规则,以确保岸内外仍在履行基本工作职责的前线工作人员的安全。”

此外,国油在上月13日时,就已安排好所有能够在家工作的员工。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12138 on: April 17, 2020, 09:50:26 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR (April 17): The National Security Council (NSC) has yet to determine the country's 'exit strategy' for the current nationwide Movement Control Order (MCO), according to Health director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.

"We haven't decided on that (exit strategy) yet, it will be determined by the NSC. But there will be consultations and indications that will be given by the Health Ministry and we will discuss this together [with the NSC].

"So at this point, we have not discussed the exit strategy yet and it is premature for me to reveal what the Ministry proposes," Dr Noor Hisham told reporters during the Ministry’s daily COVID-19 briefing.

Although Malaysia has been seeing a decreasing number of new COVID-19 cases in the past few days, he said there are still about 2,168 active cases in the country, and that it is crucial to bring that figure down first.

“When the number of active cases is fewer, it will be easier for the Ministry to manage the pandemic and turn the focus on the hotspots, as well as high-risk groups.

“If the number of active and infective cases is under control, it means we have managed to control the spread of the virus within the community,” he said.

He also indicated that there are several factors and indicators to be considered before ending the MCO.

Besides a decline in COVID-19 cases, there should also be a decline in influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases. Another factor to consider, he said, is whether there are new COVID-19 clusters detected.

Besides that, Dr Noor Hisham said laboratories across the country must have the capacity to handle daily testing of cases, and that hospitals must also have the capacity to handle patients, so that the Ministry can provide the best treatment.

"Currently, even patients who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms are warded so that we can monitor their progress. Those with serious conditions like pneumonia are given extra attention.

“At present, we have seen a reduction of cases in intensive care as well as patients requiring ventilators,” he added.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12139 on: April 17, 2020, 09:55:05 PM »
(伦敦17日讯)石油输出国组织(OPEC)再次下调对2020年全球石油需求的预测,因冠状病毒疫情给需求造成历史性冲击,并表示这次下调可能不会是最后一次。

OPEC在一项月度报告中说,预计2020年全球石油需求减少每日690万桶,降幅为6.9%。上月,OPEC预计需求将小幅增加每日6万桶。

OPEC在报告中表示,“石油市场目前正经历全球范围内的突然、极端的历史性冲击。”

该组织在谈到需求预测时表示,“下行风险依然很大,暗示可能会进一步调整,尤其是在第2季。”

由于需求下滑,2020年的石油价格暴跌,在3月30日跌至每桶21.65美元的18年低点。为了提振市场,OPEC、俄罗斯和其他产油国就一项创纪录减产协议达成一致。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12140 on: April 17, 2020, 10:23:26 PM »
(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell below $18 a barrel in New York as a wave of gloomy demand forecasts and a cratering physical market outweighed an unprecedented deal to cut output.

China’s economy suffered a historic slump in the first quarter as the coronavirus outbreak threatened global markets for its goods. Meanwhile OPEC predicted demand for its oil will fall to a three-decade low, with refiners from Asia to Europe reducing or canceling purchases.

In the US, a key exchange-traded fund plans to move some of its giant futures position to a later month.

Near-term prices for US crude are trading at huge discounts to later-dated contracts on concern stockpiles at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, will fill to capacity.

That has seen prices disconnect from Brent futures in London.

Dated Brent was assessed at US$18.86 on Thursday, according to S&P Global Platts, far below futures prices, and real cargoes are trading at even steeper discounts.

With the recent output-cuts deal by OPEC and its partners failing to revive prices, Saudi Arabia and Russia have said they’ll "continue to closely monitor the oil market and are prepared to take further measures jointly with OPEC+ and other producers if these are deemed necessary.”

Saudi Aramco said Friday that it will reduce supply to 8.5 million barrels a day from May 1.

"We’re seeing record cuts, but still not enough to bring the market even close to balance,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV.

"Even OPEC’s own numbers showed that. It’s a continuation of the story.”

As prices have fallen, investors have poured more than US$1 billion into the U.S. Oil Fund ETF so far this week.

At Thursday’s close, the fund held more than a quarter of all the June WTI contracts. As of Friday, the fund will now hold 20% of its contracts in the second WTI futures month.

"The amount of buying in Oil ETF has been staggering,” hedge-fund manager Pierre Andurand wrote in a tweet.
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12141 on: April 18, 2020, 09:26:10 AM »

REVIEW: Recently investors have found some hope with better sentiment amid the ongoing pandemic as the United States and Europe reported declines in the number of new Covid-19 cases.

Reports suggest that hospitalisations in the world’s most-afflicted countries of the United States, Italy and Spain have shown a declining trend, sparking speculation that the pandemic has reached its peak.

The improved sentiment has helped drawn Wall Street closer to a fresh bull market while a similar development is taking place in Asia.

In South-East Asia, Singapore leads the rebound with a 17% advance from its March low while Jakarta’s market has risen 14% and Thailand’s SET Index has gained 8.5%. The FBM KLCI has bounced about 15% from its March low.

However, the economic data coming out of the major economies remains overwhelmingly negative. US retail sales were revealed on Thursday to have plunged 8.7% in March while manufacturing output dropped the most in over 74 years.

US bank earnings were also dismal, with Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co and Goldman Sachs reporting a slump in their quarterly profits.

Elsewhere, China announced a 6.8% contraction in its first quarter GDP on Friday. Its central bank has slashed a key medium-term interest rate to cheapen borrowings for companies affected by the pandemic, signalling a cut to its benchmark loan prime rate in an update on Monday.

Another catalyst that has been driving market movements of late is crude oil prices.

Both trading volumes and values on Bursa Malaysia in the March and April period were showed to be elevated despite the MCO restrictions. The daily value of shares exchanged during this period peaked at RM4.9bil on March 13, marking a 26-month high.

As Opec announced a production cut of nearly 20 million barrels a day, investors proved somewhat disappointed as it did not fully offset the estimated 30 million barrels a day decline in consumption owing to the coronavirus shutdowns.

While the heavy trading in oil and gas counters has tapered off this past week, the volatility in oil markets continues to help drive trading values on the stock exchange.

On the FBM KLCI, the overall improved sentiment sustained a rebound that had started on March 19, with the advance pushing through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,365.

The local benchmark index rallied strongly over Tuesday to Thursday, picking up over 30 points in total to hit 1,386.5 points.

On Friday, the FBM KLCI maintained its growth trajectory for a fourth day as the US announced plans to reopen its economy in phases. Offsetting the negative economic data from China, the local index jumped 20.81 points to 1,407.34.

Statistics: The major index ended the week 49.84 points or 3.7% higher over the previous Friday at 1,407.34. Total turnover for the trading week stood at 24.59 billion shares amounting to RM12bil compared with 26.4 billion shares worth RM12.57bil the previous trading week.

Outlook: Following the recent rally, the FBM KLCI has put itself in recovery mode and on the brink of resuming a positive trend.

The index is currently faced with opposition from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at the 1,410 mark, a successful challenge of which could see a continuation of the recovery.

The next significant retracement level lies at 1,470, which represents a 38.6% rebound from the share’s March low point.

The technical indicators are looking bullish with the daily moving average convergence/divergence line pushing against the zero line to signal a positive trend.

Other indicators show a slightly overbought condition, although the index is yet to show any signs of slowing down.

Resistance levels can be found at 1,420 and 1,470 while support is marked at 1,370 and 1,340.

   
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12142 on: April 18, 2020, 01:02:10 PM »
Volatile market: The opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange at Wall Street in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have declined 24% and 20.7%, respectively. — AFP

THE first quarter of 2020 will probably be remembered as one of the worst quarters in investment history, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 declining 24% and 20.7%, respectively.

Words and phrases such as “unprecedented”, “black swan”, “x-standard deviations away”, “bazooka” and “furloughs” became commonplace as the Covid-19 pandemic gripped the market.

The CBOE Volatility Index also spiked to an all-time high of 82.7 in mid-March, oil had its worst quarter on record and global equities had their worst quarter since the global financial crisis of 2008.

As of April 17, Covid-19 infections in the US continue to rise and at the time of writing, stand at 675,243 with 34,562 deaths. Globally, there are 2.18 million infections and the death tally stands at 145,545.

To put this in perspective, Templeton Malaysia Country Head and CEO Avinash Satwalekar said there were 203,000 deaths from the H1N1 pandemic of 2009; one million deaths from the Hong Kong flu in 1968-1969; and 100 million deaths from the Spanish flu in 1918 to 1920.

“In Europe, we are continuing to see an improving pattern in Spain, Italy, France and Germany but a worrying escalation in cases in the UK, Turkey and the Netherlands, ” says Avinash.

Closer to home, there are improving trends in Malaysia, China, South Korea and Thailand but increases in Japan, India, Singapore and Indonesia.

What to do when recovery sets in

Avinash(pic below) is of the view that markets want to ignore and forget 2020. That’s as plausible an explanation he can offer as to why we saw the S&P 500 post its best weekly performance since 1974, in spite of mounting evidence of global economic damage.



The S&P 500 has gained 13.3% in April alone, up to April 16.

“Gross domestic product estimates for 2020 are clearly going to be miserable and no one has any conviction in their estimates, so why not look past it, or better still, find another metric to focus on. I believe the market will stabilise when we see either infections peak, available vaccines and selling exhaustion, ” he says.

Franklin Templeton chief investment officer of fixed income Sonal Desai says the big question on everybody’s mind right now is how bad the economic downturn will be, and what kind of recovery lies ahead.

“There’s no doubt that activity will suffer a very severe contraction in March and April, due to the effective shutdown of large parts of the economy. The good news, however, is that the monetary and fiscal policy response has been prompt, decisive and well designed, ” says Sonal.

She notes that this coordinated combination of fiscal and monetary support can act as a bridge to help individuals and businesses weather the downturn and can set the stage for a robust rebound.

“If in the coming weeks we can move towards a relaxation of the current measures to bring the economy back to normal, then in my view a V-shaped recovery remains the most likely scenario. As of now, I think concerns about a U of L-shaped scenario, with the latter representing a depression, are more the tail risk than the baseline, ” says Sonal.

Another factor which Sonal wishes to highlight is that, previous crises show that a deep recessions can cause lasting damage in terms of lost output. However, that damage is substantially lessened when the recession is not accompanied by a banking crisis.

“When Covid-19 hit, the US economy was strong, unemployment at record lows and the financial sector in a solid shape. With the prompt and targeted support provided by the Fed, a banking crisis seems highly unlikely, and this should reduce the damage and facilitate the recovery, ” says Sonal.

She further adds that as the recovery sets in, it will untap important investment opportunities.

For example, some fixed-income markets have been badly impacted by liquidity and market stress, with substantial spread widening that does not reflect a commensurate deterioration in fundamental credit quality.

“So, it’s a good time to start looking for specific names with attractive fundamentals, especially among the better names in both the investment-grade (IG) and eventually the high-yield universe.”

Uncertainty, rather than risk

Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton head of equities Stephen Dover says it is remarkable that in the course of a few weeks, the situation has gone from an all-time high in stocks in the United States (Feb 19) that was supported by relatively strong and improving economic data and a record low unemployment rate, to a global economic freeze.

The equity markets globally corrected by more than 35%, and then sharply rebounded.

For context, during the Great Depression, policymakers tightened monetary policy, misdirected fiscal aid, raised trade barriers and increased the regulatory burden on banks and industry.

Dover says policymakers have learned from that mistake, and the current global response has been the opposite.

“We, as investors, are focused on the containment and cure of the virus, the governments’ fiscal and monetary responses and the impact on the companies we invest in, ” says Dover.

He points out that investors are experiencing uncertainty more than risk in their portfolios: the markets have shown record daily up and down volatility. This is because the markets are dealing with uncertainty – the unknown length and severity of the virus and its economic impact. This uncertainty markets are experiencing is different in the inability to assess the length and magnitude of the current pandemic. As markets become better able to access the length, health consequences and costs of the virus, the volatility in the markets are likely to abate.

Dover adds that presently, many companies are hesitant to predict their earnings over the next couple of quarters. It is a given that earnings for many companies will be significantly lower over at least the next couple of quarters.



“However, the valuation of companies should be based on their longer-term earnings outlook, the strength of the balance sheet and the quality of their cashflows, ” says Dover(pic above).

He notes that cash becomes king during times like these. The pandemic of fear is hitting capital markets very hard as assets are sold indiscriminately to raise cash.

This is an unprecedented dash for cash as individuals and businesses anticipate that they will need cash to survive the freefall in their incomes and cashflow. Investors have used the more liquid equity markets as a primary source for quick cash, and not surprisingly money market fund assets are at all-time highs.

“The results may be that companies will need to have stronger balance sheets going forward and investors, especially individuals, will need to have larger ‘rainy day accounts’.”Slower stock buybacks and dividend growth

Dover says companies, especially in the United States, have taken advantage of low interest rates and tax advantages to buy back their own stocks. Buying back stock increases a company’s earnings per share (EPS) because there are fewer shares.

“Stock buybacks have been a big driver of flows into the equity markets, averaging about 40% of the flow into the US equity market in 2019. Because of buybacks, the number of shares in the US is at an all-time low, ” says Dover.

Over the past 20 years, companies in the S&P 500 Index have also spent an amount equivalent to their net total earnings on dividends and buybacks.

He notes that stock buybacks are less prevalent outside of the US, and he anticipates a large slowdown in stock buybacks for the next couple of years. There may also be a slowdown in dividend growth.

“The new US fiscal stimulus package limits companies that receive support from buying back stock for two years. So far, at least 15 companies have independently announced buyback suspensions. The slowdown in stock buybacks will likely reduce the EPS growth rate for the next few years, ” says Dover. Equities to outperform

As for the case of equities, in a world where central banks lower government bond yields to – or in some cases below – zero, and governments are adding massive fiscal spending, equities should outperform dramatically in relative terms.

“The dividend yield on equities is at record highs compared to US Treasuries, attracting those searching for yield. I also expect some support to equities as institutions and retail investors, especially in balanced funds, rebalance their portfolios, ” says Dover.

He adds that the indiscriminate nature of the equity selloff in March has left pockets of relative value for investors.

Meanwhile, Chinese equities have outperformed this year as well as Asian equities in general.

The recent rise in the US dollar has also made foreign stocks relatively less expensive. Global technology companies should see their competitive market position further strengthened by the current shutdown, as the entire world learns to both work and live remotely.

Dover says this includes the Chinese Internet sector.

   
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12143 on: April 19, 2020, 01:02:48 AM »
(布鲁塞尔18日讯)欧盟预测,受冠状病毒大流行影响,欧盟与全球其他地区的贸易额今年将萎缩5250亿欧元(约2.47兆令吉),降幅接近10%。

欧盟委员会周五表示,商品和服务出口将下降2850亿欧元(约1.34兆令吉),降幅9.2%,商品和服务进口额将下降2400亿欧元(约1.13兆令吉),降幅8.8%。



上述预期是基于欧盟委员会关于2020年全球贸易将下降9.7%的预测做出的。

世界贸易组织上周预测,全球商品贸易今年将下降13%至32%。

欧盟委员会表示,欧盟的出口下降将主要打击“制造业,其中大多数行业的出口收缩幅度都超过10%,运输设备和电力机械受到的影响尤其严重。”

欧盟委员会计划在5月份进行一次预测更新。

该组织并警告说,由于今年欧盟面临病毒大流行引起的GDP萎缩,欧盟与世界其他地区的贸易额的预期下降幅度可能更大。



该委员会说:“随着预计的GDP损失变得越大,贸易减少幅度也可能变得更严重。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12144 on: April 19, 2020, 01:03:24 AM »
(罗马18日讯)意大利央行公布的数据显示,该国第一季度经济萎缩约5%,“初尝”疫情破坏性影响之痛。

意大利央行的此份经济报告,展现封锁措施充分发挥效力前的经济表现;该国从第一季度末开始实施全面封锁,企业关门歇业、民众闭门不出。



央行没有对第二季度或全年表现作出预测,称很大程度上取决于意大利和欧洲应对的速度和效果。

彭博经济研究预计,意大利第二季度将萎缩18%以上,全年萎缩超过13%。

央行表示:“复苏的时机和强度将取决于疫情的持续时间和范围,这仍然存在很多不确定性,复苏也取决于各种内部和国际因素以及经济政策的有效性。”
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12145 on: April 19, 2020, 11:57:55 AM »
危机中不乏商机,2019冠状病毒病疫情和行动管控指令实行期间,大部分行业“哀鸿遍野”,但也有一些领域逆流而上,更大举招聘人手。



由于国人在管控期间无法随意外出,网购日常必需品和防疫用品蔚然成风,日常必需品、电子商务、物流与外卖和医疗保健的需求随之暴增,更成为积极扩充业务和增员的4大领域。

此外,电子游戏也异军突起,电玩活跃玩家不仅增长一倍,接触时间更从过去平均每天20分钟增至至少3小时,有整整8倍之多。

《南洋商报》为读者带来在疫情中出现的正面例子,赋予正能量及启示。

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73%公司冻结请人
4领域逆市招兵买马



近期一项民调显示,尽管在冠病疫情肆虐、管控指令实行逾一个月、经济下行等不利因素下,国内招聘活动已大幅放缓,多达72.5%受访企业表明已冻结请人,但仍有6.9%公司逆流而上,积极增聘人手。

约60%受访企业更表明,将会或将在管控令结束后的3个月内增聘员工,其中6.9%公司同样会活跃于增员,22%指会增聘但速度比较慢。

这4个继续扩充业务和增聘人手的领域,包括电子商务、物流与外卖、医疗及日常必需品生产与服务,都是疫情肆虐和管控期间,国人无法随意出门及加强防疫,大举网购下的主要受惠者。

这项由求职网站A Job Thing、Mau Kerja、铁饭碗及Internsheeps联合进行的民调,共访问了国内逾17领域,包括制造业、零售与消费、饮食业、医疗保健、交通与物流、电子商务、旅游、教育、通讯、酒店与休闲等共330间公司。

公司规模方面,受访企业大部分是员工人数介于11至100人的中小企业,以及员工少于10人的微型企业。

根据Mau Kerja及铁饭碗求职网站提供给本报的资料,上述4大领域拟增聘的人手,在电子商务的热门岗位就包括电商发展经理、电商市场经理、电商支援(网购)、电商专才、电商助理、电商行政助理、电商营运执行员等。

此外,平面设计师、各类数字行销相关人员、各类货仓与物流相关人员、各类技术支援、管理与销售人员等,都是炙手可热的工作岗位,电商领域的雇主们都急于填补这些职务空缺。


陈世安:目前就业市场“僧多粥少”。
物流医疗急增聘

Mau Kerja及铁饭碗创办人兼总执行长陈世安说,物流及外卖领域急聘的人手,主要包括物流兼运输主管、罗里司机、货车司机、送餐摩托车骑士、物流助理、物流协调员、物流执行员、仓库与营运助理经理、仓库与物流操作员、仓库主管、仓库助理、仓库执行员、库存管理员等。

“Lazada和虾皮等网购平台内的电商,是主要大举招聘的公司。这类公司主要是招聘短期员工,以应付管控期间和接下来的斋戒月销售旺季的需求。

“至于物流领域招聘的则是长期员工,毕竟就算管控令过后,相信许多国人都会选择继续待在家里,还是会选择网购,因此应运而生的物流和外卖送货需求仍很大。

“在网购、送餐需求暴增下,物流领域的货车司机、罗里司机和送餐摩托车骑士仍严缺。因此这类公司仍非常活跃的招聘人手。

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线上导师抢手

根据陈世安提供的各类热门增聘岗位名单,线上教学业务顾问、线上教学自由职业人员等一一在列,显示在管控期间,学校和补习中心等教育场所被令关闭下,线上教学的“大行其道”,令市场对各类线上教学人才趋之若鹜。

薪金方面,根据Mau Kerja及铁饭碗求职网站,截至本月13日,月薪介于2001至4000令吉的职位空缺达1348个,是最多职缺的薪水层。月薪低于2000令吉的职缺紧随其后,共有1262个空缺。

反之,薪水较高的工作岗位,即月薪4001至6000令吉,以及6001令吉和以上的工作空缺,分别只有125和93个。

“医疗厂商与销售及日常必需品厂商与服务领域,急聘职缺包括生产线各类员工、品质管理主管、技术人员及其他品管相关岗位、各类销售岗位及各类客户服务相关岗位等。”

上述4大领域获准在管控期间继续营运,而且因需求比管控前大增,都急需增聘人手来应对。

服务及旅游业最惨

至于冻结招聘的行业,以在疫情和管控令下首当其冲的领域,包括服务及旅游业为首。这些领域在管控令期间都必须停业,业者都冻结聘请新人。

“管控令结束后,相信这些领域也需观察一段时间,再决定是否请人。”

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招聘市场缩半

根据陈世安的观察,国内多家求职网上的职位空缺,已比过去高峰期减少逾50%。

“比如过去有1000份工作,目前只剩下500份甚至更少,我们预测,在管控期过后,可能只剩下300至400份。”

他指现在找工越来越难,原因很简单,即工作空缺少了,找工的人却多了。

“目前工作空缺确实越来越少,例如以前1000人找100份工,现在是1500人找50份工。”

他补充,国内已掀起裁员风和辞职风,辞职风是因有公司开始减薪,一些公司迫使雇员请无薪假,导致一些打工族因而辞职,造成职场上空缺僧多粥少。

考虑到国内企业遭行动管控的冲击,该集团通过旗下的2个求职网站Mau Kerja及铁饭碗,于本月6日至28日期间为雇主提供免费招聘的优惠。

“提供免费招聘广告给雇主,一方面希望减轻雇主经济负担,一方面则是希望雇主可提供更多就职机会,协助更多求职者找到新的工作。”

他指该网站招聘广告平均每天接获500份申请,截至13日已有超过3000个这类招聘广告,预计到了4月28日,会达到至少1万个职位。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12146 on: April 19, 2020, 06:38:56 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors continued to offload Malaysian equities last week, taking out a sum of RM456.09 million from Monday to Thursday as compared with a RM237.33 million outflow seen between March 6 and 9, as volatility persists.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said retail investors recorded net sales of RM97.75 million compared with net buying of RM229.56 million recorded in the previous week.

"Meanwhile, local institutions were the main buyers for the week with net purchases recorded at RM442.22 million. The equities market appears to be discarding the disappointing economic data coming out from the US.

"Plunging US retail sales in March, higher-than-expected unemployment claims last week, and free fall in business sentiments in the recent survey all seemed to be at the back burner now, ” he told Bernama.

On the other hand, he said the grim outlook shared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the state of the global economy and sharp decline in global oil demand estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) did not seem to suppress market sentiments.

"Perhaps, the decline in the number of new infection cases of COVID-19 are fuelling hope that the economy would be reopened soon. Nonetheless, the uncertainties are still visible.

"There is no vaccine or antibody yet for the virus. Health experts are also not too keen to reopen the economy prematurely. As such, foreign investors would continue to be cautious, preferring the safe-haven assets, ” he added.

Mohd Afzanizam said the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) yields had come down quite steeply this week.

"As of yesterday, the 10-year MGS yield has fallen by 31 basis points from last week's level. The 10-year MGS yield was at 3.06 per cent on Thursday, ” he said.

On Friday, the FBM KLCI rose 20.81 points or 1.5 per cent to 1,407.34 from 1,386.53 at Thursday’s close.

The local index extended its gains to end the week on a firm note, underpinned by persistent buying momentum in index-linked counters amid positive market sentiment brought about by reduced COVID-19 cases, signalling global economic recovery. - Bernama

   
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12147 on: April 19, 2020, 09:57:25 PM »
交易员认为,员棕油期货在本周的交投应该会相当淡静,而价格估计会在每吨2270至2340令吉之间游走。

市场人士仍然担忧棕油产量的增长,尤其是在冠病疫情期间市场需求都不太殷切,因为许多国家都实施了封城的措施。



由于缺乏新的催化剂,市场情绪继续会受到压抑。

在上周,员棕油期货价格基本走高,这符合大豆油、石油价格,以及令吉汇率的走势。

按周来算,5月份棕油期货价格下跌了80令吉,至每吨2285令吉;6月份的则跌61令吉,至2251令吉。

此外,7、8月份的,分别下跌50令吉,至2235令吉和2224令吉。

一周成交量增加至25万7369宗,未平仓合约则从24万3081宗增加至24万8527宗。



在现货市场,4月份南方棕油价格下跌了106令吉,至2274令吉。
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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12148 on: April 19, 2020, 09:58:17 PM »
金价上周五下跌约2%,此前美国总统特朗普推出重启美国经济的新指导方针,以及一种试验中的新冠肺炎药物的初步数据令人鼓舞,促使投资者转向风险更高的资产。

现货金跌1.9%,报每盎司1685.84美元,较本周稍早触及的七年半高点低逾60美元,当时市场担心经济陷入数十年来最严重的衰退。



“今天,黄金和股票走势呈负相关性,隔夜股市上涨对黄金造成压力。特朗普关于重新开放经济的指导方针提振了股市,”满地可银行基本金属和贵金属衍生品交易主管王泰(译音)表示。

他补充称:“如果股市能够延续隔夜涨幅,就可能引发更多的黄金获利回吐。”

今年,金价有时会与股市同步波动,近期的大幅下跌促使投资者卖出贵金属,以弥补在其它市场的损失。

一份报告详细介绍了美国制药公司吉利德科学的试验药物瑞德西韦(Remdesivir)在新冠肺炎重症患者身上的治疗成效,这也振奋了人们的情绪。

美国黄金期货收跌1.9%,报每盎司1698.80美元,收窄与伦敦现货价格的差距,显示出对供应链物流改善的希望。物流困境阻碍了为满足合约需要向美国的黄金付运。


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Re: KLSE starting to collapse
« Reply #12149 on: April 20, 2020, 07:59:58 AM »
Oil slump
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