Author Topic: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR  (Read 23672 times)

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #100 on: November 17, 2016, 05:50:53 PM »



Foreign banks shaken by Malaysia's move to halt currency slide
 banknegaramalaysia
 1 comments      Saikat Chatterjee & Praveen Menon, Reuters     Published Today 4:22 pm     Updated Today 4:29 pm

267

 
Foreign banks in Malaysia on Thursday were trying to work out how to comply with the central bank's clampdown on offshore ringgit trading, a move the broader market views as a form of capital controls.

Form letters, sent this week from onshore banks to their offshore counterparts, asked compliance officers to sign commitments to cease trading the ringgit in the NDF markets and then send the letters back to Bank Negara, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

"There's a massive back and forth going on between banks and Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) now," said a banker at a foreign bank in Malaysia that deals in foreign currency transactions.

"This is a type of indirect capital control ... I see a flood of people exiting Malaysia."

The ringgit had fallen nearly 1 percent on Thursday to a fresh 11-month low of 4.3850 against the dollar. The offshore spreads in NDF markets widened, while bond yields shot higher with the 10-year benchmark yield trading 17 basis points up at 4.22 percent. It has risen nearly 60 basis points in the last week.

Investors typically use the liquid NDF markets in Singapore and Hong Kong to exchange ringgit for dollars because of the many restrictions in the domestic market.

Singapore and Hong Kong are ranked third and fourth at US$517 billion and US$437 billion respectively on global daily average turnover of foreign exchange derivatives, according to the latest survey from the Bank of International Settlements. The United States and Britain are the top two.

'State of limbo'

While Malaysia allows foreigners relatively open access to its domestic bond and stock markets, it prohibits any offshore trading of its currency or related derivatives.

Some foreign banks said they were told their investments cannot be moved out of Malaysia if they don't sign the letter.

The head of trading at a Western Bank in Hong Kong described the situation as "being in a state of limbo" due to the regulatory uncertainty.

"We have been told that we cannot repatriate our money and our investments stay in Malaysia if we don't sign," he said.

The bankers asked for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Foreign holdings account for 40 percent of the total outstanding bond market in Malaysia, one of the largest foreign ownerships in Asia.

Foreigners have been fleeing the Malaysian market in a global bond rout following Donald Trump's election as US President last week, which sent the dollar soaring and has hit emerging market currencies particularly hard.

Punitive action

Bank Negara Malaysia has asked financial institutions to provide a detailed plan if they need to make ringgit transactions onshore and to seek help from Malaysian financial institutions for any foreign exchange transaction needs.

The central bank on Wednesday warned it could act against lenders who do not comply with the measures.

"We can take (punitive action) as they will be breaching the Foreign Exchange Administration (FEA)," Assistant Governor Adnan Zaylani told reporters in a Wednesday briefing.

"We can even take criminal or administrative action (against them)," he was quoted saying by state news agency Bernama.

Bankers, however, say Bank Negara has no oversight over trades outside its jurisdiction.


Malaysia was one of the only countries to impose capital controls during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis by fixing the exchange rate and requiring the currency be held at least a year after the sale of Malaysian securities or assets in the country.

It was widely viewed as a major contributing factor to its subsequent economic recovery.

Foreign investors pulled RM8.4 billion out of government bonds in September, the largest outflow since August last year when Malaysia's markets tumbled on a political crisis swirling around Prime Minister Najib Razak and corruption allegations involving indebted state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).

In October, however, there were inflows of RM2.39 billion into government bonds, and foreign reserves rose to RM$97.8 billion by the end of the month, up from RM$97.7 billion at the end of September. The reserves were enough to finance 8.4 months of retained imports.
- Reuters



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/363215#ixzz4QG1L5KdC

Offline ahbah

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #101 on: November 17, 2016, 10:26:39 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 17): Standard Chartered Bank's Global Research unit said it now expects Bank Negara Malaysia to cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) only in the later part of the first quarter of 2017 (1Q17).

Offline CurryLee

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #102 on: November 17, 2016, 10:35:46 PM »
aiyo....shud cut first ma....potong...tak potong mati later....tuk tuk chiang liao....right.ahbah?
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 17): Standard Chartered Bank's Global Research unit said it now expects Bank Negara Malaysia to cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) only in the later part of the first quarter of 2017 (1Q17).
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #103 on: November 18, 2016, 07:58:50 AM »



StanChart: Room for Bank Negara to stay put on OPR next week
Posted on 18 November 2016 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Standard Chartered Global Research (StanChart) sees room for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to cut rates only in late first quarter 2017, versus its previous expectation of a 25bps cut at the cental bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting next week.

“The Malaysian economy remains soft; however, we see room for BNM to keep the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3% on Nov 23,” it said in a report yesterday.

It explained that recent data showed signs of stabilisation, albeit at weak levels. Third quarter 2016 gross domestic product (GDP) surprised to the upside, at 4.3% year-on-year, bringing the nine months of 2016 GDP growth to 4.15% year-on-year.

This is within the government’s growth forecast of 4.0%-4.5% for 2016, whereas the first half of 2016 growth of 4.05% was just above the low end of the range.

“We believe BNM continues to regard market communication as important, and it appears to be conveying a neutral monetary policy stance,” said StanChart.

It said the risks to the Malaysian economy remain to the downside. Private consumption may have been boosted while one-off payouts to civil servants may have helped bolster spending. However, labour metrics continue to soften.

“Although BNM recognises the challenging global economic conditions, we believe that further deterioration will require a monetary policy adjustment. Potential trade protectionist policies from the US and a hard impact on euro-area growth from Brexit are key risks that need monitoring. China remains the elephant in the room, but growth risks in the country appear stable for now,” said StanChart.

It added that the US presidential election outcome adds a layer of complexity to its view on monetary policy, and it would closely watch the impact of related uncertainty on Asian financial markets.

StanChart shifted its duration outlook on Malaysia Government Securities (MGS) to neutral from positive, saying that extreme foreign exchange volatility is likely to cause foreign sentiment towards MGS to deteriorate in the near term.

“We believe positioning has been the key driver of the sell-off in the bond and swap markets. Our recent client conversations suggest that fast-money accounts had heavy receive positions in front-end ringgit interest rate swap, given that offshore investors largely expected BNM to shift to a more dovish policy stance.”

Its discussions also suggest that real-money investors have extended duration in MGS on the back of curve-flattening expectations.

“Q3 GDP growth beat market consensus, at 4.3%; this may have a bearing on BNM’s policy stance, raising the likelihood that it will keep rates unchanged rather than cut.”

Its neutral outlook is based on high cash holdings by onshore longer-term investors.
“In the near term, we expect foreign investors – especially emerging market local currency bond funds – to reduce their allocations to Malaysia. Their underweight against the benchmark index is likely to rise to 2%-3% from 1% as of end-October.”

In addition, StanChart said, foreign outflows from short-end MGS will be vulnerable to foreign exchange weakness

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #104 on: November 18, 2016, 08:08:01 AM »



财经  2016年11月17日
国行插手管制 外资恐撤离

国行插手管制 外资恐撤离
国行禁交易NDF指示,让外资银行烦恼。

(香港17日讯)《路透社》报道,外资银行正为如何配合国家银行禁止交易令吉岸外无交割远期合约(NDF)的指示而烦恼,此举也被外资视为是资本管制的一种,引起市场人士担忧。

国家银行致函外资金融机构禁止令吉NDF交易,並要求这些金融机构向国家银行提供详细的计划书,说明他们在境內进行令吉交易的需求,及向大马金融机构寻求协助进行外匯交易的需要。

国家银行助理总裁阿德南再拉尼週三对《马新社》表示,监管单位將对不愿意配合的银行採取行动。

银行家则认为国家银行无权监管其管辖范围外的交易。


一名负责外匯交易的外资银行家透露,各银行与国家银行正在针对此措施进行大规模討论。

间接资本管制

「这是一种间接的资本管制,我预计很多资金会因此离开大马。」

投资者一般通过新加坡与香港的NDF市场,將令吉转换成美元,因为大马岸內交易市场有太多限制。根据国际清算银行的统计,新加坡和香港是继英美市场之后,全球外匯衍生品交易量最高的2个市场。

儘管大马允许外国人参与国內债市与股市,但禁止任何离岸货幣与相关衍生產品的交易活动。

一些外资银行被告知,若他们不愿签署书面承诺,將无法从大马转移资產回国。一位欧美银行驻香港的交易部门主管声称,当前的情况有如处於「地狱边境」,监管条例充满不確定因素。

「我们被迫签署这项协议,否则无法从大马撤回投资。」

外资在大马债券市场投资比重达40%,为亚洲比例最高的市场之一。上周川普胜选后引发全球债市波动,导致令吉在內的新兴经济体货幣成为重灾区。

大马是在1997年亚洲金融风暴中唯一採取资本管制的国家,將匯率与美元掛鉤,並要求投资者在脱售资產后持有令吉一年以上。

当时,此举被视为扶助大马经济在稍后开始復甦的关键措施。

虽然如此,国行官员过去几天则多次强调,不会採取固定匯率制,也没有修改外匯行政条例(FEA),所有的措施將只是短期的应对方案。

今年9月份,外资从大马债市撤资84亿令吉,为去年8月份以来最大的出走潮。但资金在10月份回流,有24亿令吉流回至政府公债,外匯储备也从9月尾的977亿令吉,提高至10月的978亿令吉

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #105 on: November 19, 2016, 06:54:41 AM »



财经  2016年11月18日
国行本月料不出手 最早明年首季降息

213
国行本月料不出手 最早明年首季降息

(吉隆坡18日讯)隨著美国联储局(Fed)主席耶伦暗示升息时间將近,並重申將会缓速升息,市场人士认为,这进一步篤定了市场对大马国家银行將于11月23日不降息的预测。

市场人士称,在如今的局势下,国行的降息空间不大,因为一旦美联储在年杪升息,將进一步扩大各国央行在利率决策上的分歧。因此,在大马经济环境不明朗的情况下,市场相信,国行会选择按兵不动,將隔夜政策利率(OPR)维持在3%。国行上一次降息,是在今年7月。该行將隔夜政策利率从3.25%,调低25个基点,至3%。

渣打下调公债展望

渣打银行首席经济学家认为,国行于11月23日召开的今年最后一次货幣政策会会议中,將不会进一步降息,並预测国行降息计划最快在明年首季后才会实行。


同时,由于匯率的浮动性,渣打银行已把政府公债(MGS)的展望,从「正面」,下调至「中和」。

渣打银行在此之前,曾预测国行將在11月的议息会议中,降息25个基点。惟,最近的数据显示,儘管大马的经济仍处在较弱的水平上,但已经趋向稳定。

该银行指出,大马今年第3季GDP按年成长4.3%,拉高了首9个月GDP成长至4.15%,相比2016上半年的4.05%成长率,如今的成长率更贴近政府定下的4至4.5%成长预测的安全范围內。

渣打银行对国行货幣政策的预测,在川普意外当选美国总统后,添加了不少不確定因素。因此,渣打银行將谨慎关注该事件对亚洲金融市场的影响。

渣打银行称,美国候任总统提倡的贸易保护措施和英国脱欧对欧元区造成的衝击,依然是主要的风险。虽然中国在区域內扮演的角色也很重要,但中国的经济成长已经逐渐稳定。

该银行补充说,在目前波动幅度较大的金融市场环境中,国行须就宽鬆货幣所带来的短期成本,以及靠低利率支撑经济长期发展之间权衡利弊。惟,一切还需待川普正式上任宣佈新政策,尤其是贸易方面,才能替市场解疑释惑。



匯率波动外资撤出债市

近期波动激烈的匯率,导致外资对大马国债的投资情绪进一步恶化。渣打银行称,岸外投资者普遍认为,大马国行將会偏向鸽派的保守货幣政策。

外资从大马政府公债(MGS)撤资,更多的是受令吉匯率波动的影响。渣打银行將10年期政府公债(MGS)收益率今明2年的预测,分別从3.2%和3.7%,提高至4.4%。

今天下午5时,令吉兑美元匯率报4.4165令吉兑1美元,盘中交易更触及4.4413令吉兑1美元新低。

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #106 on: November 22, 2016, 08:17:42 AM »



2016-11-21 17:01
国行23日议息.利率料维持3%
特朗普当选美国总统冲击马币汇率表现,不过,国家银行在周三的议息会议,料维持利率在3.00%的水平。
(吉隆坡21日讯)特朗普当选美国总统冲击马币汇率表现,不过,国家银行在周三的议息会议,料维持利率在3.00%的水平。

广告

 
国家银行会在周三召开今年最后一次议息会议,尽管马币近期贬不停,让国行发表“不能容忍”,说法,但经济学家认为,国行暂时对利率不会采取行动。

13位接受调查访问的经济学家一致预测,国家银行基于马币汇率较弱将持续一段时间,料维持利率在现有水平。

国行上一次降息是在今年7月。

马币兑美元汇率目前介于13个月的4.43低位,自特朗普于11月8日的选举胜出后,马币兑美元汇率已滑落超过5%。

国家银行上周六发出预警讯息,指该行将进行“适当监管干预”行动。

另外,大马在今年第三季的经济成长比预期的年成长率4.3%理想。大马今年9月的通膨为1.5%。

广告

 
MIDF:明年至少降息一次

MIDF研究预料国行在周三议息会议将维持利率于3%不变,但预料明年至少会降息一次。

MIDF预计在明年尾,大马的利率将降0.25%至2.75%,主要是因为大马经济日益趋缓。“尽管我们预料明年的贸易表现会有所改善,但今年活动的缓慢,将滞后至有年上半年才显现。”

因此,尽管MIDF认为明年外围环境会复苏,但国行将会降息以振兴国内经济活动。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.11.21

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #107 on: November 23, 2016, 06:32:57 AM »



 上则新闻
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下则新闻
印度闹钱荒 大马棕油出口跌
财经  2016年11月22日
11月首两週外匯储备增22亿

(吉隆坡22日讯)大马外匯储备金在11月的首两週內,共增长5亿美元(22亿令吉),惟分析员预计,基於过去两週的资金外流情况,外匯储备接下来料会下跌。

国行今日公佈截至11月15日的大马外匯储备金数据,包括外国货幣、国际货幣基金组织的储备、特別提款权(SDRs)、黄金和其他储备资產共计983亿美元或相等於4078亿令吉;比10月31日时的978亿美元水平,增加了5亿美元。

国行在文告中表示,储备金足以融资8.4个月的进口,或相等於1.2倍的短期外债。

虽然外匯储备金有所提升,但NATIVIS投行高级经济学家特林认为,这並不代表令吉没有压力。


这也许反映国行放任资金流出,没有动用储备进行干预。

近期资金流出

「我们预料这次储备,尚未反映近期资金流出的现象,因此,下一次公佈的数据,大马外匯储备金相信会进一步下滑。」

令吉为亚洲表现最差的货幣,在川普获选后,共贬值超过5%。外资目前共持有40%的大马国债,而美联储升息机率大增,致使投资者趋向撤出新兴市场,將资金转投美国怀抱

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #108 on: November 23, 2016, 08:21:48 AM »



Asia’s worst currency slump puts BNM on guard
Bloomberg | November 23, 2016
Bank Negara’s attempt to stop foreign banks from using offshore forwards to bet against the currency exacerbated the decline, as it evoked fears of capital controls imposed during the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
Ringgit-BNM-1

Asia’s worst-performing currency slump since Donald Trump’s surprise US election victory is putting a Malaysian interest-rate cut out of sight for now.
After surprising the market with a reduction in July, economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the days leading up to the US vote had forecast another cut this year. Trump’s win and the ensuing US dollar rally have swept those bets away, with all 19 economists polled in a fresh survey predicting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will hold the overnight policy rate at 3 per cent on Wednesday.
The ringgit has fallen more than 5 per cent since the Nov. 8 US elections, as emerging Asian economies suffered about $11 billion of outflows. Bank Negara’s attempt to stop foreign banks from using offshore forwards to bet against the currency exacerbated the decline, as it evoked fears of capital controls imposed during the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
“Given the currency weakness and also potentially an uptick in inflation next year, the room for deeper rate cuts is slimmer,” said Julia Goh, an economist with United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Kuala Lumpur. “The volatile ringgit and the dollar’s strength complicate matters.”

Former Powerhouse
Once among Southeast Asia’s powerhouses, Malaysia’s economy is faltering with the World Bank forecasting growth of less than 5 per cent from 2016 to 2018. The economy expanded 4.3 per cent last quarter from a year earlier.
The depreciating ringgit in part has prompted analysts at ING Groep NV and Nomura Holdings Inc. to change their forecasts, expecting the central bank to stand pat at its last policy meeting this year, from an earlier projection of a reduction. UOB’s Goh predicts policymakers will resume cutting rates in the first half of 2017.
Other central banks in the region are also holding off from adding stimulus, with Indonesia last week keeping its benchmark rate unchanged after six cuts this year.
The Malaysian currency fell for 10 straight days through Tuesday and was trading at the lowest level since October 2015. Inflation is projected by the government to average between 2 per cent and 3 per cent next year, compared with 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent this year.
“With BNM stepping up rhetoric against speculation on the ringgit, the focus is now firmly on currency stability with growth/inflation dynamics taking a backseat for now,” DBS Group Holdings Ltd. said in a note this week

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #109 on: November 23, 2016, 08:19:27 PM »



财经  2016年11月23日
通胀率走势稳定 国行维持利率于3%

通胀率走势稳定 国行维持利率于3%

(吉隆坡23日讯)国行今日在本年度最后一场货幣政策会议后宣布,將隔夜政策利率(OPR)维持在3%水平,符合市场的预期。

国行在会议后的声明中称,大马经济在健康的金融中介(financial intermediation)活动支撑下,通胀率走势稳定,现有的OPR水平,足以继续推动国內经济稳定成长。同时,金融失衡的风险仍在可控制范围,但国行货幣政策委员会將持续监控相关风险,以確保国家稳定的成长前景。

国行预测,大马2016全年通胀率將落在2%至2.5%预估范围內的低水平。展望来年,在国际能源与大宗商品价格走低,同时全球通胀率放缓的情况下,国行认为,大马在2017年应会维持相同水平的通胀率。

在全球与国家经济层面,国行表示,全球经济继续缓慢地成长,而亚洲国家,包括大马的经济增长主要由內需支撑,因外部需求依旧低迷。


全球经济或会在2017年稍微改善,而新兴经济体积极採用货幣政策振兴经济的局面,可能会营造更平衡的政策环境,並推动经济成长。

无论如何,国行指出,国际间贸易保护主义和金融市场的波动都会带来风险,如近几个星期內,新兴市场的各种资產、货幣对外匯率和收入都受到市场波动加剧的严重衝击。

就业与薪资稳定成长

此外,国行相信,大马就业率与人均薪资稳定成长,因此国內私人领域依然是国家未来经济成长的关键助力。

同时,儘管国內投资活动放缓,但正在进行的基建投资和製造与服务业资本开销依然形成了稳固的支柱。

至於外贸,大马主要外贸伙伴均出现需求下滑现象,但国家出口相信会稍微上扬。

至於近期激烈波动的令吉,国行表示,全球经济、政策环境和地缘政治发展的持续变数是罪魁祸首。

国行称,该行將会不断为市场提供足够的流动资金,以確保国內外匯市场如常运作。

「投资者依然易於进入大马资本市场,市场本身亦有足够的深度和流动性;另外,作为资本和流动性缓衝的大马金融机构,继续稳定运作,而注入私人界的资金成长也和经济活动的频率相吻合。」

在川普胜出美国总统大选之后,资金持续流出新兴市场,导致区域货幣市场波动剧烈,而令吉也大幅走贬,加上美国联储局將在下个月会议升息的预期,促使市场认为,国行在今日的货幣会议上,將维持利率不变。

令吉今日上午一度走低至4.4445兑1美元,是2015年10月以来的最低水平。

令吉尾盘报4.4400令吉兑1美元。另外,国行也在今日的货幣政策会议批准了2017年度的会议时间表。根据2009年大马中央银行法令,国行货幣政策委员会每年会举行6次会议

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #110 on: November 24, 2016, 06:10:13 PM »



储备金10年仅增1%落后邻国
美国下月升息重挫大马
2128点看 2016年11月23日

(吉隆坡23日讯)随着市场几乎可以肯定美联储下个月升息,大马将成为受最大冲击的东南亚国家,因为过去十年的外汇储备金增幅,落后于其他邻国。


根据以往纪录来看,美国改变货币政策,都会对部分东南亚国家带来影响,而外汇储备金则是一个潜在的缓冲方式。

彭博社的统计数据显示,自2007年9月开始,当美联储展开一连串行动,降息至“零”利率时,菲律宾、印尼和泰国的外汇储备金,至今已增加超过一倍。

其中,以菲律宾的外汇储备金增幅最大,共激增181%,紧接着是印尼,共增142%。

相反的,大马表现最逊色,在过去十年至今,外汇储备金略增1%而已,达983亿美元(约4345亿令吉),这仅是新加坡外汇储备金的三分之一,也是泰国的一半而已。

根据彭博社的图表,大马的外汇储备金水平,目前低于新加坡、泰国和印尼,仅高于菲律宾而已。

国家银行宣布,我国截至11月15日的外汇储备金,从10月31日的978亿美元(约4323亿令吉)提高至983亿美元,为自去年7月底跌破1000亿美元以来最高水平。

根据国行的文告,目前的外汇储备金足以应付8.4个月进口,以及1.2倍的短期外债。

本月底外储看跌

马银行投行分析员指,在外资抛售马股和令吉贬值之际,大马截至11月15日的外汇储备金却增加,这令人感到意外。

“我们认为,这或是外资在岸内资金市场抛售股票后,资金实际流出岸外的时间问题。加上有报道指国行在上周干预外汇市场扶持令吉,所以我们预测,截至11月底的外汇储备金将会减少。”

分析员没有发现任何从外国营运或投资汇回本国的收入、盈利或股息,以及从政府或企业外债汇回本国资金。

不过,从国际收支平衡角度来看,也可能有其他非投资组合在本季度出现资金流入,抵销组合的资金流出,这将进一步改善来往账项盈余。

我国今年第三季来往账项盈余扩大至60亿令吉,相等于国内生产总值(GDP)的1.9%,次季为19亿令吉或GDP的0.6%。


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #111 on: November 24, 2016, 07:24:51 PM »
How did Malaysia's central bank manage to simultaneously meddle in markets to support its currency and increase its foreign exchange reserves? That's a $500 million question.

Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), said last week it was intervening in the market to support the ringgit, which was particularly hard hit in the "Trump tantrum" of emerging market fund outflows in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise U.S. election win on November 8.

That intervention should have showed up in the country's foreign-exchange reserves as a decline because the central bank would usually need to sell foreign currencies to purchase ringgit.

Instead, the central bank said on Tuesday that its international reserves amounted to 407.8 billion ringgit, equivalent to $98.3 billion, as of November 15. That compared with the 405.5 billion ringgit, or $97.8 billion, it had as of October 31, according to a November 7 statement.

BNM didn't immediately answer emailed requests for comment on the unusual rise in reserves, but at least one analyst noted the seeming discrepancy in the figures.

"A surprise increase in foreign-exchange reserves and BNM reassuring investors that capital markets and the banking system is deep and liquid in their policy statement leaves more questions than answers," Jason Daw, a foreign-exchange analyst at Societe Generale, said in a note on Thursday.

"Valuation effects alone should have caused reserves to fall and it is unlikely that dollar buying occurred in the November 1-15 period," he said, speculating that Malaysia's swap line with China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), may have been tapped for dollar liquidity.

The swap arrangement allows the two central banks to provide liquidity in each other's currencies, primarily aimed at supporting trade and investment.

Daw noted that Malaysia has "significant resources" to manage any stress from outflows, such as the PBOC swap line, a Chang Mai swap line and IMF credit facilities. But he added that "sentiment has been damaged and the ringgit should remain on edge."

"Reassuring words alone will be insufficient to change the trend," he added.

For the ringgit, the trend since the U.S. election results has been unremittingly negative. By Thursday, dollar climbed as much as 6.5 percent against the Malaysian currency for the month so far, with the greenback fetching as much as 4.4630 ringgit, its highest since September 2015 and flirting with levels last seen during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

Sentiment on the ringgit was also hurt by the central bank's warning to foreign banks to restrict trading in offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) on the currency, which have fallen further than the spot rate.

While that moved appeared to be only a reinforcement of existing regulations, it spooked traders. markets tend to be more sensitive to tea-leaf reading over capital controls in Malaysia because the country was the first to impose them during the Asian Financial Crisis.

—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #112 on: November 25, 2016, 08:19:39 AM »


Bank Negara expected to maintain key rate, SRR until Q3 next year
Posted on 25 November 2016 - 05:39am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: AmBank Research expects Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and statutory reserve requirement (SRR) at 3% and 3.5% for 2016 until the third quarter of 2017, after the central bank took no action at the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

“We have placed a low 30% probability of a rate hike by 25 basis points in 4Q2017 on the back of 2-3 rate hikes by the US Fed, pick-up in inflation and steady domestic gross domestic product growth by 4.5% in 2017,” the bank-backed research firm said in its note yesterday.

The committee on Wednesday said it believes that fiscal stimulus in developed economies could result in a more balanced policy environment that will be supportive of growth. However, risks of protectionism and financial market volatility are a cause for concern.

Private consumption remains the growth engine, supported by sustained wage, stable employment, increase in minimum wage with effect from July 1, 2016 and fizzling of the Goods and Services Tax impact.

Ongoing infrastructure investments and capital expenditure in both manufacturing and services sectors will continue to boost investment activities.

Meanwhile, export expansion will be constrained by external headwinds and weak prices while headline inflation is projected to remain tame amid subdued global inflation

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #113 on: November 26, 2016, 02:35:08 PM »



M'sia fares worst in reserves to debt deficit - report
 ringgit banknegara
 7 comments     Published Today 12:28 pm     Updated Today 12:49 pm

64211

 
Malaysia ranks worst in terms of its deficit of foreign currency reserves compared to external debts, leaving it the most vulnerable to currency attacks and capital outflows.

Bloomberg yesterday reported that a study of International Monetary Fund's (IMF) measure of the buffer between foreign reserves and debt showed Malaysia in the weakest position, with Turkey, South Africa and Mexico close behind.

"The measure shows Malaysia - not coincidentally the worst performing of the major emerging Asian currencies against the dollar this month - faring poorly by comparison, with a US$100 billion reserves projection against short-term external debt of US$128.2 billion, based on IMF estimates," it said.

The gauge helps identify which countries have the strongest buffers against capital outflows toward developed markets as US interest rates are poised to keep climbing following US president-elect Donald Trump's electoral victory.

“Malaysia and Turkey are classic example of countries whose reserve levels are falling to a critical level in comparison with the amount of their short-term external debt.

"When the overall market trend is down, investors are looking for who is more vulnerable and weak reserve position is also highlighted,” Bloomberg quoted Takahide Irimura, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co, saying.

Meanwhile Tsutomu Soma, general manager of fixed-income department in Tokyo at SBI Securities Co, said countries with a poor buffer will face greater risk of attacks.

“In this broad trend of the dollar strength - or emerging-market currency weakness - the currencies of countries that have plenty of reserves will probably perform better than others.

“You don’t attack the currency when you know the monetary authorities have plenty of money to intervene.

"Instead, you look for a currency that has less ability to defend it,” he was reported saying.

Malaysia’s reserves are well down from a May 2013 high, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Singapore, and the slimmer adequacy ratio "limits the ability for Bank Negara to intervene".

While Bank Negara insists its foreign currency reserves are at a "comfortable level", the ringgit has continued its slide down to 4.458 to the US dollar yesterday.

Depleting reserves across Asia

The measure developed by the IMF showed Thailand and the Philippines may be best placed to withstand further downward pressure on the emerging currencies in Asia, said Bloomberg.

Called the 'assessing reserve adequacy' gauge, it incorporates criteria from short-term debt to money supply, imports and investment flows.

It is based on calculations taken before the "Trump-induced US reflation play roiled the foreign-exchange market".

IMF forecast last month Thailand’s reserves were at US$163.3 billion at year-end, compared with the $64.9 billion needed, while the Philippines reserves were at $84 billion against a US$31 billion need.

However Bloomberg noted Asian countries have been using their reserves to "prevent disorderly declines, likely making the IMF’s year-end projections unattainable"



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/364248#ixzz4R5qjqgKn

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #114 on: November 30, 2016, 06:35:05 PM »



财经
第二財長:令吉雖貶 未導致外匯儲備暴跌
 3124点阅   2016年11月30日
20161201fb91

第二財政部長拿督佐哈里阿都干尼重申,儘管近期令吉貶值,但並未導致外匯儲備暴跌。



佐哈里阿都干尼在文告中指出,針對市場對令吉的失實陳述,以及“Malaysian Reserve”于 11月28日標題為“第二財政部指我國需要面對令吉波動”的報導,作出澄清。

他說,令吉近期的頹勢,部份原因是岸外市場的投機活動所致。我國外匯儲備在今年內都處在相當穩定的水平,即約970億美元(約4324億令吉)。

“截至11月15日,外匯儲備甚至增至983億美元(約4382億令吉)。”
他說,外匯儲備不可能如報導中所指“因外資撤離,導致外匯儲備跌至970億美元(約4324億令吉)。

佐哈里強調,持續保持經常賬項盈余(Current Account Surplus),以及外來直接投資額(FDI)流入國內市場,將持續扶持外匯儲備。

他澄清,我國外匯儲備最高水平應該是在2013年5月份所創下的1414億美元(約6303.6億令吉),而非報導所指的1700億美元(約7578.6億令吉)。

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #115 on: December 01, 2016, 06:38:52 AM »



Bank Negara: US$97.8b reserves at end-October
Posted on 1 December 2016 - 05:36am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s official reserve assets amounted to US$97.8 billion (RM436 billion), while other foreign currency assets amounted to US$347.2 million as at end-October 2016, said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

“For the next 12 months, the predetermined short-term outflows of foreign currency loans arising from scheduled repayment of external borrowings by the government would amount to US$261.4 million,” BNM said.

In line with the practice adopted since April 2006, the data exclude projected foreign currency inflows arising from interest income and the drawdown of project loans amounting to US$2.36 billion in the next 12 months

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #116 on: December 02, 2016, 06:42:04 AM »



龙门阵  2016年12月01日 | 作者:杨善勇 | 专栏:仅供参考
两年外匯储备少了千亿?

这个国家当前政局之魑魅魍魎,显然不是政治使然,而是出自经济的满目疮痍。一旦参考了国际货幣基金组织的外匯储备適足率(ReserveAdequacy)评估指標,读者就能有所领悟了。

截至11月22日,马来西亚的储备金,只剩下932亿美元(4147亿令吉)。但是,据短期外债推算,国家现有的外匯储备实质应该存有1188亿美元(5286亿令吉);不足之数,多达美金256亿。折算上来,超过1100亿令吉。

《东方日报》援引的外电报导,灯下读来,怵目惊心:我国的外匯储备与建议水平相差多达15.8%之多,位居《彭博社》巴克莱新兴市场本幣政府债指数,16个新兴市场国家中的榜首!

追溯往年的演绎,惊悚犹甚。中国驻马来西亚经商参处所载的消息显示,一年之前的2015年8月28日,马外匯储备共有947亿美元(4214亿令吉);一年之后,减少了15亿美元(67亿令吉)。比重可怕,思之自明,迨无异议。


2014年年杪呢,国家银行发佈国家的外匯储备金约1160亿美元(5162亿令吉)。按此基数,比较晚近两年所储,过去24个月里,外匯储备每月平均掉了大约10亿美金(44.5亿令吉),总数少了美金228亿,接近1015亿令吉,正是前提储备適足率不敷的总额。

不管这一切纯是因为匯率遽降,还是另有耐人寻味的因素,总而言之,外匯储备疲弱如此,確如亿创(SBI)证券固定收益部总经理索玛勤(TsutomuSoma)解释,国家货幣因此容易遭到衝击。

认识这些,我们自可明白,这些日子何以令吉自惭形秽的由来缘由了。按此月减10亿美金的疾速估算,如果不思长进,继续一掷千金寅吃卯粮,国家所剩下的932亿美元储备金,拉扯一年,到了2017年,最终还有多少呢?

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #117 on: December 02, 2016, 08:54:22 PM »



财经  2016年12月02日
国行干预 无法对冲 外资避开大马债券

(吉隆坡2日讯)香港首富李嘉诚次子李泽楷所控制的柏瑞投资(PineBridge Investment)认为,大马债券在过去1个月被拋售后,已经浮现买进良机,但是大马国家银行(简称国行)限制岸外令吉交易,令该基金望而却步。

根据《彭博社》报导,管理总值830亿美元(约3685亿令吉)资產的柏瑞投资基金指出,国行对岸外无交割合约的限制,让长期投资者难以对冲外匯风险。」

债市前景不明朗

东京的三菱日联国际资產管理公司(MitsubishiU FJ Kokusai Asset Management)也表示,大马的资產价值可能將进一步下滑,国行对于匯率的干预,恐会削减大马的外匯储备。


柏瑞投资驻伦敦高级主权组合经理费格曼说,「大马的债券应该可以跑贏大市,惟如今在无法对冲的情况下,大马债市前景並不明朗。」

他补充说,「我们相信国行已踢到铁板,它当务之急应该恢復外国投资者对它的信心。」

除了国行干预因素,大马的资產价值也受到原油价格波动和美联储升息机率大增的压力,令吉匯率逼近1998年亚洲金融风暴时的最低水平。

国行之前警告外资银行勿以岸外远期合约对令吉进行投机活动,国行的举措衝击大马总值1320亿美元债市的投资情绪。

大马10年期债券的收益率在11月29日攀升至4.46%,为2008年9月以来的最高点。与此同时,令吉匯率在过去3个月重挫8.3%,並在12月1日一度走贬至4.4707令吉兑1美元的水平,逼近去年写下的4.48令吉兑1美元低水平。

资產匯率迎颓势

费格曼也说,「我们对国行禁止外资银行进行令吉岸外交易,阻止了我们对冲债券的举动感到纳闷。我们担心国行將继续採取干预措施,因为这將衝击债券和匯率市场的中期走势。」

同时,管理总值1150亿美元资產的三菱日联国际资產管理公司也对大马债券避而远之,並唱衰大马的资產和匯率料將迎来一波颓势,奉劝投资者勿再进场。

该基金首席投资员秀雄下村说,「国行料將持续干预匯率市场以支撑令吉,因此大马的外匯储备將会持续缩减,进而导致投资者更加忐忑。

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #118 on: December 07, 2016, 06:51:48 AM »



Tuesday, 6 December 2016
Spotlight on Bank Negara reserves






 
 
PETALING JAYA: All eyes are on the next international reserve data to be released by Bank Negara tomorrow to determine how much has been used to defend the ringgit against the US dollar since Nov 11.

Dealers felt that the central bank could have used several billion US dollars to defend the ringgit, which has seen a steep depreciation against the greenback since the surprise election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States on Nov 11.

The ringgit was not the only currency to depreciate against the dollar. Almost all major currencies weakened against the greenback. Even China, with reserves of more than US$3.2 trillion, adjusted its peg against the dollar to reflect a weaker yuan.

Currency dealers told StarBiz that the last international reserve data was not reflective of the situation, as the changes only came about on Nov 11.

The following two days were on a weekend and Nov 14 was Monday. The reserve numbers came out on Nov 15.

The subsequent two-week period in November saw major upheavals in the currency markets globally. The ringgit and other emerging-market currencies were roiled by Trump’s victory on Nov 9, which spurred the dollar to its highest in 13 years.

The next set of foreign reserve numbers cover the period between Nov 15 and Nov 30.

“The real numbers would only be known in the next reserve figures that would be out on Wednesday,” said a dealer.

The central bank’s foreign reserves amounted to US$98.3bil (RM436.45bil) as at Nov 15, and were announced on Nov 22.

The figure translates to 8.4 months worth of imports and 1.2 times the short-term external debt.

Based on the recent selldown of ringgit assets and capital outflows, the next international reserve numbers are largely expected to decline, according to AllianceDBS Research economist Manokaran Mottain.

However, he felt that it was an immediate-term impact based on global developments, adding that over the longer term, it should improve with the new measures that Bank Negara had put in place.

“It has been hovering around US$97bil for about a year now. But the reserves should go up in the near term over the next three months with the new measures such as compelling exporters to convert the proceeds to the ringgit,” he said.

Based on the three-month gross exports moving average of RM65bil, some US$10bil would be added to the reserves due to the 75% conversion of all export proceeds back into the ringgit by Malaysian corporations, Manokaran added.

The decline in the ringgit is partly due to substantial capital outflows by foreign investors over the past three years as a result of the improving economic prospects elsewhere. Foreign institutions hold about 40% of government bonds and 22% of shares in the local bourse.

In turn, the outflows resulted in a steady decline in the foreign reserves over the same period. Between 2013 and 2015, the reserves fell from US$134.9bil to US$95.28bil, according to Bank Negara’s latest annual report.

Bank Negara’s Financial Markets Committee last Friday announced several measures to spur the conversion of US dollars to the ringgit, hence hoping to increase the demand for the local currency. Among them was that exporters should convert 75% of their proceeds to the ringgit.

Previously, exporters were to bring back the proceeds within three months but could opt to keep the foreign currency within the local financial system without converting to the ringgit.

As a sweetener, the companies are also being offered a special deposit rate of 3.25% for keeping their profits onshore.

The efforts seem to have helped the currency rebound from recent lows. As at 5pm, the ringgit strengthened marginally to RM4.4485 from RM4.4532 yesterday, while at the same time, the offshore forward rate for the currency has largely stabilised .

Last Friday, the central bank announced a slew of measures to stabilise the ringgit.

While the initiatives are a step in the right direction to boost the flagging ringgit, dealers said the impact would only be known in the next few weeks

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #119 on: December 07, 2016, 04:18:16 PM »



Bank Negara reserves fall to RM427.149 billion as of Nov 30
 banknegara foreignreserves
 3 comments      Reuters     Published Today 3:27 pm     Updated Today 3:34 pm

88


 
Malaysia's central bank announced today that gross international reserves stood at RM427.149 billion (US$96.4 billion) as of Nov 30, down from RM435.567 billion (US$98.3 billion) on Nov 15.

Bank Negara Malaysia said the lower international reserves position reflected the liquidity support in the foreign exchange market.

It said the reserves were sufficient to finance 8.3 months of retained imports and were 1.2 times the short-term external debt.

The latest reserves total is the lowest since mid-March this year.

- Reuters



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/365484#ixzz4S8aNwaT0

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #120 on: December 07, 2016, 05:54:53 PM »



 0 0 0 New
International reserves slip to 8-month low at end-Nov
Reuters | December 7, 2016
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said they were sufficient to finance 8.3 months of retained imports and were 1.2 times the short-term external debt.
Bank Negara Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s international reserves fell by nearly $2 billion in the last two weeks of November, and some economists expect the total to decline further this month.
Malaysia’s central bank said on Wednesday that gross international reserves stood at $96.4 billion as of Nov. 30, down from $98.3 billion on Nov. 15.
The reserves are at their lowest level since mid-March. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said they were sufficient to finance 8.3 months of retained imports and were 1.2 times the short-term external debt.
“The lower international reserves position reflected the liquidity support in the foreign exchange market,” it said.

The ringgit has slid nearly 5 percent since Nov. 9, as foreign investors fled Malaysia’s bond market after yields spiked on speculation that President-elect Donald Trump could impose stimulus policies that raise the U.S. inflation rate.
Suhaimi Ilias, chief economist of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, said reserves could drop further in December’s first half “before things stabilize again” but any decline shouldn’t be severe as there should be higher repatriation of export earnings.
“There seems to be still some selling by foreigners in the (Malaysian) equity market,” Suhaimi said.
On Dec. 2, BNM announced several measures to boost liquidity and encourage domestic trade of the ringgit in efforts to stem the currency’s slide against a rising U.S. dollar.
It said that exporters could only retain up to 25 percent of export proceeds in a foreign currency, while the remainder must be converted into ringgit.
Earlier on Wednesday, the government announced that exports in October fell 8.6 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in 18 months.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #121 on: December 07, 2016, 06:03:29 PM »



2016-12-07 17:16
稳马币耗82亿.外储跌破4000亿
资金外流导致马币急贬,国家银行为保持汇市稳定而进场干预,造成外汇储备迅速下跌。国行今日宣布,截至11月30日止外汇储备跌破4000亿令吉,剩下3996亿令吉,比11月中旬的4078亿令吉低82亿令吉,也是3月以来的8个月最低。

(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡7日讯)资金外流导致马币急贬,国家银行为保持汇市稳定而进场干预,造成外汇储备迅速下跌。国行今日宣布,截至11月30日止外汇储备跌破4000亿令吉,剩下3996亿令吉,比11月中旬的4078亿令吉低82亿令吉,也是3月以来的8个月最低。

广告

 
8个月最低

以美元计,外汇储备在半个月内降低19亿美元,从983亿美元跌至964亿美元。

根据国行文告,虽然最新外汇储备依然是短期外债的1.2倍,但仅足以融资8.3个月保留进口,低于11月中旬的8.4个月。

市场谨慎情绪笼罩,马币兑美元一度走低至4.4140令吉。在扶盘下,马币兑美元扭转跌势,下午5时报4.4315令吉,比昨日4.4410令吉高0.21%。

大马在截至11月15日的外汇储备增至983亿美元(4078亿令吉),比截至10月杪的978亿美元(4055亿令吉)增加5亿美元,这是2015年7月杪跌至低于1000亿美元之后,首次取得最高储备数额。

不过,马银行研究认为,在实际外流显现,截至11月杪外汇储备下跌,而且国行近来干预外汇市场,扶持马币的走势,也会减少外汇储备。

广告

当时,货币交易商对最新的国际外汇储备数据增加感到纳闷,市场原本预计资金外流量增加导致储备下跌。

美元升值
打击马币基本面

吉隆坡一名资深银行交易商说,联储局几乎铁定下周升息,带动美元升值,这将打击马币的基本面,他建议保留美元,主要是特朗普任总统的政策将使美元汇率保持强劲。

从海外公司的营运司和投资调回国内的收入、盈利或股息,或者是政府或企业从海外贷款调回国的收入,未显示有大量资金流入。

广告

从国际收支的角度来看,预料这一季其他非组合投资流量,将抵销组合投资外流,进一步改善经常账盈余,上一季已扩大至增加60亿令吉,或占国内生产总值的1.9%,同时外资直接投资在次季缩小至30亿令吉后,第三季有望增加。

2016年11月首3周,海外投资者出售大马证券净值达27亿令吉,是2016年5月(43亿令吉)来最多的数额,10月则是6亿令吉。

此外,根据马银行研究的固定收入小组估计,2016年11月上半个月,外资出售大马债券的净值介于50亿至80亿令吉,2016年10月则为24亿令吉。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧报道:郑碧娥‧2016.12.07

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #122 on: December 18, 2016, 01:57:05 PM »



2016-12-18 12:58
1月前不换卡额外收费?国行发文告回应
国家银行发文告澄清,有关逾期更换提款卡(ATM)及扣账卡(Debit Cards)将导致旧卡被报废或额外收费的说法是假的。

(吉隆坡18日讯)国家银行发文告澄清,有关逾期更换提款卡(ATM)及扣账卡(Debit Cards)将导致旧卡被报废或额外收费的说法是假的。

广告

由于各大银行近日都涌现大批人潮排队更新银行卡,因此国行昨日(17日)发文告避谣澄清,即使民众在今年内都还没更新银行卡,他们所持有的“旧卡”都不会变成“废卡”或额外收费。

国行的文告中指出,在早前10月28日公布的文告中有清楚列明,更新银行卡是免费的,而且在密码输入系统正式启用前,民众将拥有6个月的缓冲期,一直到2017年7月1日,签名验证系统才会完全被淘汰。意思是,截至明年7月前,旧卡的签名验证系统依然生效。

国行补充,民众若还有疑问,可直接洽询国行。管道如下:

官方网站:http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php
官方电话: 1-300-88-5465
官方传真: 03-2174 1515
官方电邮: bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my
官方简讯: 15888

文章来源:
星洲网·2016.12.18

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #123 on: December 22, 2016, 06:26:50 PM »



财经
政府減補貼 通脹趨升 國行明年料維持3%利率
 21点阅   2016年12月22日
政府持續合理化補貼、國際油價趨漲,明年通脹水平料持續攀升。
政府持續合理化補貼、國際油價趨漲,明年通脹水平料持續攀升。
(吉隆坡22日訊)隨著政府持續合理化補貼、國際油價趨漲,經濟學家估計我國明年通貨膨脹將加劇,加上大批資金續外流、美國升息預期等因素,國家銀行在令吉匯率疲弱的背景下,明年料會維持利率在3%。

肯納格證券研究經濟分析師蘇海米在報告指出:“我們相信通脹動力攀升,並會在明年維持較高水平,部分是由政府實施合理化補貼、油價復甦前景明朗,以及內需改善所貢獻。”



他預測,今年第4季通脹率將按年升1.7%,全年通脹率料2.1%;2017年全年通脹預測為2.3%。”

“政府在11月取消食用油補貼,加上季風影響食物供應、令吉疲軟和年底佳節,我們預見更高的通脹壓力將主要反映在飲食品組別上,繼而提高12月份的通脹率。但12月汽油價下滑每公升5仙,可抵消部分通脹壓力。”

另外,豐隆投銀研究指出,核心及服務通脹溫和攀升,估計將遏止需求推動的通脹,因消費成長前景溫和。

明年通脹或達2.7%

該行估計今年的消費價格指數平均按年成長2.1%,2017年估計為增長2.7%,是官方預測2%到3%之間的較高水平,主要是低商品價格的短期效應減弱所致。

兩家券商經濟學家都認為,明年國行預計會維持利率在3%。以目前穩定通脹水平而言,若受外圍因素帶來負面影響,在必要情況下國行還是有空間放寬貨幣政策。

除了通脹水平,令吉走勢的穩定性也是國行調整貨幣政策的考量因素。因此聯昌證券研究認為,如果經濟狀況有利且令吉穩定,估計國行或在5月或7月的貨幣政策委員會會議中,減息25個基點。

國行決策只能三選二

從市場局勢來看,國行有理由減息來放寬貨幣政策,但如今國行在政策選擇上面對三難局面,在穩定利率、獨立貨幣政策和資金自由流動這三方面,只能選擇控制其中兩項。

聯昌證券研究認為,國行得在控制和穩定,以及放寬之間作出取捨,相信國行會維持不阻礙長期貿易和投資流的政策。因此,國行料不會為了捍衛令吉而升息,或實施資本控制。

令吉從今年4月達1美元兌3.87令吉的高水平,下滑13.7%至1美元兌4.48令吉,但令吉的名義有效匯率(NEER)降幅並沒有其他貨幣嚴重。

報告稱,波動的資本外流和貨幣疲軟,或迫使國行忍耐經濟成長放緩,以及財務狀況緊縮。

未來若令吉出現新一波波動,以及美聯儲在2017年採取更積極的升息措施,國行未來的寬鬆貨幣政策或採取更謹慎的立場。

令吉明年首季後才見曙光

令吉至今仍遊走在4.4至4.5之間,聯昌證券研究指出,一旦大批政府債券在明年首季到期之后,相信可緩衝資本外流以及令吉貶值的壓力。

該行指出,國行針對出口收益的外匯兌換限制,以及擴大岸外美元和人民幣對沖設備的措施,將提供充足外匯供應來支撐令吉,讓令吉在波動性放緩后有逐步回升的空間。

令吉在橫擺多日后,週四(22日)終呈攀升走勢,“彭博社”數據顯示,令吉匯率介于4.4745至4.4815波動,截至下午4時報1美元兌4.478,較昨日閉市的4.4792攀升0.03%。

根據國行報價,令吉兌美元匯率今早9時報4.482,維持在週三(21日)閉市水平,但在中午12時回升0.13%,報4.476

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #124 on: December 22, 2016, 06:36:45 PM »



2016-12-22 17:09
降息空间受限.国行保成长陷三难
原产品与食品价格吹涨风,令雌伏多时的通膨可能重新抬头,在2017年走高至2.5%,经济学家认为,尽管国家银行已采取行动力挽马币颓势,但国行在运用外汇、利率与资金流调控经济方面陷入“三难困境”,明年只有减息25基点的空间以刺激成长。

(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡22日讯)原产品与食品价格吹涨风,令雌伏多时的通膨可能重新抬头,在2017年走高至2.5%,经济学家认为,尽管国家银行已采取行动力挽马币颓势,但国行在运用外汇、利率与资金流调控经济方面陷入“三难困境”,明年只有减息25基点的空间以刺激成长。

广告

 
联昌研究指出,资金流波动乃至马币脆弱性,可能促使国行忍受成长下跌与收紧的财务状况,国行料在货币宽松课题上采更审慎态度,主要是联储局明年多次升息增加马币波动。

“倘若整体经济状况良好和马币持稳,国行在2017年5或7月间,具有减息25基点时机。若经济表现优于预期和马币波动加剧,则国行减息几率将降低。”

该行认为,国行不会调高利率或落实资金管制来捍卫马币,相信国行将继续采取不会阻碍长期贸易和投资流向的政策组合。

4月迄今
马币贬13.7%

联昌指出,马币由4月最高的3.87令吉兑1美元,迄今已下跌13.7%至4.48。但是,若从名义有效汇率(NEER)计,则跌幅较轻,即从4月最高跌8.5%。

由于外资在大马政府债券的投资高于平均水平,外资流出预期对马币形成下压。

广告

不过,在大型大马政府债券将于2017年首季届满后,预料外资撤离潮和马币卖压将可减轻。

“近期国行连出两招,第一招是扩大岸内美元与人民币的护盘设施;第二招是规定70%出口收益需调遣回国,在汇率波动消逝后,马币将可逐步稳住阵脚。”





广告

 
私人消费走疲
明年料成长4.2%

联昌预测2016年大马经济取得4.2%成长,低于2015年的5%成长率。

至于2017年,联昌则预期大马可同样保持4.2%经济成长率,处于财政部预测4至5%成长的低端,主要是私人消费与固定资本总额组成(GFCF)走疲。

“大马稳定收入增长,走疲而仍具韧力的劳力市场,乃至政府对强势群提供金援,对私人消费起稳定作用;大马家债仍维持高水平的89.1%,国行已持续采取步骤减少债务越积累越高。

大马经济研究院第三季调查显示商情与消费情绪双双走低,促使联昌把私人消费增长由2016年的6%,调低至2017年的5.8%。

固定资本总额组成(GFCF)预期2016年放缓至3%,归咎于疲弱商情、企业盈利与原产品价下跌。

联昌预测原产品价格回弹与外需走高,有助2017年GFCF升至3.4%。

首9个月总投资1508亿

“商情疲弱亦使资本开销走疲,大马投资发展局今年首9个月批准的投资总值按年跌3.7%,至1508亿令吉;由产业、银行服务与全球投资主导的服务业,则逆向按年增长26.2%,至1084亿令吉。”

制造业的批准投资按年跌39%,至407亿令吉,主要是前期有两大油气投资高基础比较;制造业投资主要专注于油气、电子电器、运输与化学领域。

2017年财政预算案中,投资发展局获5亿2200万令吉拨款吸资,侧重化学、电子电器、研发活动,至于大马5大经济走廊获21亿令吉挹注。

“建筑活动受各大基建活动驱动,如第二及第三捷运、轻快铁三乃至泛婆罗洲大道与550亿令吉的东海岸衔接铁道等活动。”

联昌说,政府在2017年财政预算案的开支增长3.4%,至2608亿令吉,一反过去两年连续下跌;假设政府预定的4.至5%增长受胁,税务体系与付款转移的自动稳定机制,在经济活动动摇时可支撑私人界。“2017年全球优于往年的增长(3.4%,相比2016年3.1%),促使我国双油走高,出口走疲的制成品,特别是电子电器产品有望恢复需求。”

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #125 on: December 22, 2016, 06:38:34 PM »



2016-12-22 17:23
半个月内增1亿.外储意外回稳
国家银行出手捍卫马币,造成外汇储备上月底跌破4000亿令吉关口后,截至本月15日已恢复稳定,外汇储备略为提高1亿令吉,从3996亿令吉增至3997亿令吉。
(吉隆坡22日讯)国家银行出手捍卫马币,造成外汇储备上月底跌破4000亿令吉关口后,截至本月15日已恢复稳定,外汇储备略为提高1亿令吉,从3996亿令吉增至3997亿令吉。

广告

 
以美元计,最新外汇储备保持964亿美元。

国行在报告中说,截至本月15日的外汇储备足以融资8.3个月保留进口,也是短期外债的1.2倍,与前期相同。

与11月15日的4078亿令吉比较,外汇储备在一个月内大跌81亿令吉;以美元计,则减少19亿美元,前期为983亿美元。

特朗普当选美国总统和联储局升息0.25%以来,马币兑美元重启跌势,节节败退至4.80令吉左右。今日下午5时,马币兑美元报4.4740令吉,低于昨日的4.4780令吉。

经济学家认为,大马外汇储备对短期外债的覆盖率为区域最低,恐怕面临更大的资金撤离压力。

不过,他们强调,国行要求出口商将75%出口收益换为马币,并推出一系列外汇管理措施,预期可带来1000亿令吉或230亿美元外汇储备,因此相信短期内国行不会祭出更多外汇管理措施。

广告

 
外资持1818亿政府债券

其中,大众研究表示,马币已超卖10至12%,如果不明朗因素冲击消退,外资可能重新回归。

截至11月,外资持有1818亿令吉大马政府债券、230亿令吉大马政府投资票据(MGII)和2219亿令吉私人债券,比前期减少190亿令吉。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.12.22

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #126 on: December 29, 2016, 06:42:51 AM »



外储比例偏低
大马最易受冲击
71点看 2016年12月29日
(吉隆坡28日讯)随着亚洲新兴市场将面美元借贷成本上升的问题,加上特朗普可能采取贸易保护主义,因此,外汇储备金比例偏低的大马、巴基斯坦和印尼,最容易受到冲击。

在目前所面对的挑战,拥有最庞大的外汇储备以及最少短期外债的国家,或许可抵挡这股震荡。


根据彭博社的数据显示,大马、巴基斯坦,以及印尼,是最易受到冲击的国家,因为外汇储备金比例相当低;这是根据外汇储备金占国内生产总值(GDP)比重,以及对比短期外债占GDP比重计算。

相反的,中国、菲律宾和泰国,则可度过长期冲击。

其中,中国的外汇储备金比例最高,接近300%,比比大马的近100%,高出2倍。




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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #127 on: January 06, 2017, 08:56:14 PM »



外汇储备金
达4242亿令吉
654点看 2017年1月6日
 bank_20170106 (1)

(吉隆坡6日讯)国家银行宣布,我国截至12月31日的外汇储备金,达到4242亿令吉,或相等于946亿美元。


现有的外汇储备金,较截至12月15日的3997亿令吉,增加了245亿令吉。

根据国行文告,目前的外汇储备金,足以应付8.8个月进口,以及1.3倍的短期外债。


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #128 on: January 06, 2017, 09:18:05 PM »



财经
無力破千億 去年外儲946億美元
 152点阅   2017年1月06日
我國外匯儲備自2015年7月以來即失守千億美元大關。
我國外匯儲備自2015年7月以來即失守千億美元大關。
(吉隆坡6日訊)國家銀行公布,截至去年12月30日的國際儲備金按年跌0.7%至946億美元(約4242億令吉),果然如經濟學家所言,無法在2016年達到千億大關。

國行今日發佈文告指出,將調整外匯重估的變化納入考量后,截至去年底的外匯儲備金,從去年同期的953億美元(約4091億令吉),下跌0.7%至約4242億令吉。



國行說,經常賬項盈余(Current Account Surplus)和外來直接投資(FDI),仍扶持外匯儲備金的水平。不過,國內公司在海外的直接投資,以及非居民調整一些證券投資,抵消了外匯儲備的升勢。

截至去年底的外匯儲備金水平仍足以促進國際交易,即足以融資我國8.8個月的進口,相等于短期外債的1.3倍。

中總社會經濟研究中心執行董事李興裕早前接受《中國報》電訪時指出,我國外匯儲備雖持穩,但一直都處在950億至970億美元(約4246億令吉至4335億令吉)之間,距離1000億美元水平還有一段差距。

由于來自證券投資的外資成長也緩慢,他相信,年底觸及此水平的機率不大。

我國外儲自2015年7月以來即失守千億美元大關,當年截至7月31日外匯儲備金達3647億令吉,或相等于967億美元

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #129 on: January 06, 2017, 09:31:07 PM »
31 dec 2014 =116
31 dec 2015 = 95.3
31 dec 2016 = 94.6

Choy choy choy!!!!
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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #130 on: January 10, 2017, 07:04:05 AM »



国行扶持令吉措施奏效
外汇储备首季可回稳
203点看 2017年1月9日
 

(吉隆坡9日讯)国家银行刺激外汇储备的措施将奏效,经济学家预计,我国外汇储备金将在今年首季回稳。


马银行投行经济学家指出,出口商75%出口所得必须兑换成令吉的措施,将起到刺激作用。

“基于出口商可兑换6个月的贷款和入口所需数额,加上去年12月预估的兑换比率达57%,预计今年的外汇储备将增加约60亿美元(约270.3亿令吉)。”

出口收入兑换逾20亿

同时,该经济学家预计,今年全年,我国的贸易盈余为873亿令吉或195亿美元。

资料显示,去年12月,净出口收入兑换为令吉,超越20亿令吉。

上周五,国行宣布,我国截至12月31日外汇储备金达946亿美元,或相等于4242亿令吉,不但比半个月前的964亿美元少1.87%,也比去年底的953亿美元低。

国行指出,虽然国内企业积极在国外直接投资,以及非住宅投资组合减值(reversals)的影响,但在贸易顺差和外资流入国内市场投资的扶持下,外汇储备保持稳定。

截至12月底的外汇储备金,足以应付8.8个月进口,及1.3倍的短期外债。

兴业研究认为,外汇储备减少,其中原因是外资撤资,同时也相信国行干预了外汇市场,进场扶持令吉走势。

今日,令吉兑美元以4.4750开盘,盘中一度跌至4.4850。

截至晚间7时,令吉兑美元报4.4770。

12月出口数据向好

经济学家认为,令吉疲弱促使大马去年11月出口增幅好转,今年经济增长料比去年好。

达证券经济学家指出,令吉贬值,市场对大马产品需求将走高。预计未公布的去年12月贸易数据会持续强稳,而这股趋势也会延续至今年。

他预计,去年12月出口的按年增幅为9.9%,并将全年平均出口按年增幅拉高至1.2%。今年全年出口预估则是2.5%。

同时,基于11月出口强劲,经济学家也提高对12月出口的预期,加上去年末季贸易表现较去年第三季好,预计去年末季的经济增长年增4.5%。

来往账盈余料改善

兴业研究经济学家也说,全球经济持续增长,全球贸易量也会逐渐改善。

此外,全球对电子电器产品的需求强韧,加上原产品出口表现回弹,该行经济学家预计我国去年的出口会按年扬0.5%,今年则是2%。

该经济学家也预计,贸易盈余有所改善,今年我国的来往账户盈余会稍微改善至202亿令吉,或今年国内生产总值的1.6%。

大马出口在连续萎缩2个月后,意外的在去年11月按年增长7.8%,进口也涨11.2%,皆高于市场预期。


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #131 on: January 19, 2017, 03:29:37 PM »



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Bank Negara keeps interest rate at 3%
By theedgemarkets.com / theedgemarkets.com   | January 19, 2017 : 3:00 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 19): As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3% today at its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the year.

The central bank had reduced the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3% on July 13, 2016.

In a statement today, BNM said at the current level of OPR, the degree of monetary accommodativeness is consistent with the policy stance to ensure that the domestic economy continues on a steady growth path amid a stable core inflation, supported by sustained financial intermediation in the economy.

"While the risks of destabilising financial imbalances are contained, the MPC will monitor these risks to ensure the sustainability of the overall growth prospects. The MPC will continue to assess the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for domestic growth and inflation," it added.

BNM noted that headline inflation averaged 2.1% in 2016 and is expected to average higher in 2017, amid the prospect of higher global oil prices.

"However, these cost factors are not expected to cause significant spillovers to the broader price trends, given the stable domestic demand conditions. Underlying inflation is therefore expected to remain stable," it said.

BNM also pointed out that latest indicators point to continued expansion for Malaysia in the fourth quarter of 2016.

"Going forward, private sector activity will remain the key driver of growth. Private consumption is expected to be sustained by continued wage and employment growth, with support from various policy measures to raise disposable income. Investment activity, although moderating, will be supported by ongoing infrastructure development projects and capital spending in the manufacturing and services sectors.

"On the external front, the expected improvement in exports will provide some support to growth. Overall, the economy remains on track to expand as projected," it said.

On the ringgit, BNM said the volatility has reduced since the sharp adjustments experienced towards the end of 2016, noting that the implementation of financial market development measures has provided stability to the domestic foreign exchange market.

However, it warned that uncertainties in the global economy, the policy environment and geopolitical developments may, however, result in bouts of volatility in the regional financial and foreign exchange markets.

"In this regard, BNM will continue to provide liquidity to ensure the orderly functioning of the financial markets," it said, adding that the banking system liquidity remains ample.

On the global front, BNM said the global economy is projected to expand at a slightly faster pace this year.

"The prospect of a shift towards progressive use of fiscal policy in the developed economies could lead to a more balanced policy environment that would support growth.

"Nevertheless, heightened uncertainty and downside risks to global growth remain, arising from risks of protectionism, geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility. These risks could also lead to episodes of increased financial market volatility," it noted.


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #132 on: January 20, 2017, 01:31:08 PM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Friday, 20 January 2017
Bank Negara holds rate on expectation of higher inflation






 
 
PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara is maintaining the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3% on expectation that inflation will average higher this year due to stronger oil prices.

Inflation as measured through the consumer price index was up 1.8% in December from the same month a year ago and slightly lower than economists’ expectations. Headline inflation averaged 2.1% last year.

However, the central bank said despite the higher oil prices, there would be no significant spillovers to the broader price trends, given the stable domestic demand conditions. It cut the OPR by 25 basis points to the current level last July.

“Underlying inflation, as measured by the core inflation index, is therefore expected to remain stable,” it said in a statement following a meeting of the monetary policy committee.

It added that the ringgit, along with other emerging-market currencies, has seen a reduction in volatility since the sharp adjustments experienced towards the end of 2016. “The implementation of financial market development measures have provided stability to the domestic foreign exchange market,” it said.

Bank Negara cautioned that uncertainties in the global economy, the policy environment and geopolitical developments may result in bouts of volatility in the regional financial and foreign exchange markets.

“These risks could also lead to episodes of increased financial market volatility,” it said, adding that economic activity in the major advanced economies has improved while in Asia domestic demand continues to support growth amid some recovery in external demand.

Bank Negara expects the global economy to expand at a slightly faster pace with more emphasis on the use of fiscal policy in the developed economies leading to a more balanced policy environment supporting growth.

“For Malaysia, latest indicators point to continued expansion in the fourth quarter of 2016. Going forward, private-sector activity will remain the key driver of growth. Private consumption is expected to be sustained by continued wage and employment growth, with support from various policy measures to raise disposable income.

“Investment activity, although moderating, will be supported by ongoing infrastructure development projects and capital spending in the manufacturing and services sectors. On the external front, the expected improvement in exports will provide some support to growth. Overall, the economy remains on track to expand as projected,” it said

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #133 on: January 20, 2017, 03:57:00 PM »



Bank Negara’s reserves fall to US$94.3b as of Jan 13
 banknegaramalaysia
 1 comments      Reuters     Published Today 3:28 pm     Updated Today 3:30 pm

Reuters
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Malaysia’s central bank said today that gross international reserves stood at US$94.3 billion as of Jan. 13, down from US$94.6 billion on Dec 30.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said reserves were sufficient to finance 8.7 months of retained imports and were 1.3 times the short-term external debt.

Malaysia’s reserves fell to its lowest in a year at end-December, matching levels seen in December 2015.

The central bank in November had announced measures to shore up the ringgit in efforts to stem the currency's slide against a strengthening US dollar.

- Reuters



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/369951#ixzz4WHluOLA4

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #134 on: January 27, 2017, 06:34:33 PM »



'No investigation despite US$10 billion forex loss in 1990s'
 18 comments     Published Today 5:12 pm     Updated Today 5:42 pm

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Former Bank Negara Malaysia assistant governor Abdul Murad Khalid has claimed that the central bank lost US$10 billion in the foreign exchange market, much higher than the RM9 billion figure it once admitted.

But what was more puzzling, said Murad, was that no one was ever investigated for the “biggest forex (foreign exchange) loss in the world”.

In an interview with New Straits Times and Utusan Malaysia, the 64-year-old shared the workings of the Bank Negara forex operations, claiming that there was no proper documentation of the huge transactions.

Only a top central banker and a junior staff had a record of all the deals, claimed Murad.

The losses, he added, valued at RM44 billion at the current exchange rate, were “real money that went down the drain”.

“It means that our (forex) reserves in US dollars, British pounds and Japanese yen all went down the drain.

“It disappeared just like that... This is accumulated losses over several years.”

Claiming that there was no control over the matter, Murad said nobody knew what was happening at the time.

“The most important thing is that there was no investigation at all. You lost US$10 billion, but there was no investigation.

“The police or the Anti-Corruption Agency (now the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission) did not come. No one came to investigate,” he said.

As a central bank, Bank Negara’s role was not to speculate in the forex market and was supposed to only intervene to smoothen the movement of the ringgit, added Murad.

“There are two things, one is speculation and another is reserve management. Reserve management is moving your assets. It’s a real thing and real assets... if you want to invest in Treasury bills, government bonds.”

“That’s the role of Bank Negara - the real assets. But what they did was (pure) speculation.”

'Bank gave conflicting data'

Bank Negara, he further claimed, had given conflicting and confusing data when put under scrutiny over its purported dubious activities.

“It’s a big loss, but there is no investigation. Bigger than other cases. Why was there a cover-up? The truth must prevail.

“It is not easy to conceal a dead elephant... the carcass is just too big for the hole. We are not talking about a chicken.”

Murad, therefore, wants the authorities to reopen the case.

“They should and I’m willing to cooperate. The records are more than 20 years old and might have been eaten by termites... The dealings were done here.”


The New Straits Times reported that Murad’s claims were expected to cause a political stir and renew calls for a thorough probe into the losses, which occurred during the tenure of Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister.

Bank Negara, by 1994, had conceded that it had lost as much as RM15 billion. It had betted heavily against US billionaire and infamous currency trader George Soros on the pound sterling.

However, the central bank eventually lost the gamble and Soros emerged as the victor, earning him Mahathir’s ire.

Then opposition leader Lim Kit Siang had claimed that Malaysia had lost as much as RM30 billion. The actual sum, however, was never revealed.



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/370724#ixzz4WxL9tAKL

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #135 on: February 07, 2017, 04:23:24 PM »



Bank Negara international reserves at US$95b as at Jan 31
 banknegaramalaysia
 0 comments      Bernama     Published Today 3:47 pm     Updated Today 4:02 pm

22
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Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) international reserves rose to US$95.0 billion (equivalent to RM426.0 billion) as at Jan 31, 2017 from US$94.3 billion as at Jan 13, 2017.

The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.6 months of retained imports and is 1.3 times the short-term external debt, BNM said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur today.

The central bank has built up its reserves over the years since the foreign exchange losses in 1992/1993, as well as the Asian financial crisis in 1998.


In 1992, BNM’s reserve was a mere US$18.1 billion, which gradually increased to US$27.7 billion in 1996 before slipping during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 to US$15.2 billion.

However, BNM managed to firmly increase it to US$101.3 billion in 2007, before declining to US$91.4 billion during the financial crisis in 2008.

In 2009, BNM’s reserves stood at US$96.7 billion, US$106.5 billion (2010), US$133.6 billion (2011), US$139.7 billion (2012), US$134.9 billion (2013), US$116.4 billion (2014), US$95.3 billion (2015), and US$94.6 billion (2016).

All in all, BNM’s reserves position now is far better than it was in 1992 or during the Asian Financial Crisis.

- Bernama



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/371694#ixzz4Xz7tkpqh

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #136 on: February 07, 2017, 04:45:38 PM »
Bagus  :thumbsup:

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #137 on: February 22, 2017, 03:33:34 PM »



LATEST NEWS, CORPORATE
POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
Bank Negara foreign reserves unchanged at US$95b as at Feb 15
By Samantha Ho / theedgemarkets.com   | February 22, 2017 : 3:10 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 22):  The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) were flat at US$95 billion or RM426 billion on Feb 15, 2017, compared with its reserves level as at Jan 31.
 
“The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt,” BNM said in a statement today.

Foreign currency reserves comprised US$88 billion of the reserves, according to the central bank, a figure that was also unchanged from its reserves on Jan 31.
 
Its IMF reserves position was at US$800 million, while special drawing rights (SDRs) were at US$1.1 billion. Gold made up US$1.4 billion of the international reserves, and other reserve assets totaled US$3.7 billion.
 
Total assets as at Feb 15 were RM450.59 billion, down by RM1.9 billion from Jan 31, according to BNM’s data.
 
Currency in circulation amounted to RM100.27 million, the central bank said

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #138 on: February 27, 2017, 06:15:55 AM »



经济学家:通胀仍可应付
国行料维持利率3%
153点看 2017年2月25日
(吉隆坡25日讯)尽管我国消费者物价指数(CPI,通胀率)走高,但经济学家认为,目前仍属可应付水平,国家银行估计会维持隔夜政策利率(OPR)不变。

大马统计局日前宣布,我国1月通胀率按年攀升3.2%,高于市场预期,主要是因为零售油价上涨。


对此,肯纳格投行经济学家在报告中指出,由于2月油价持续增加,相信通胀率将持高不下。

经济学家称,去年同期通胀率走低,低基数效应会导致今年首季通胀率趋高,可能触及4.1%水平。

此外,油价在介于55美元至57美元之间交易,经济学家预计,交通通胀率指数会持续涨势,推高今年的通胀率。

全年通胀或超4%

“全球增长加上国内需求,若今年全年通胀率超越4%,我们都不感惊讶。”

然而,鉴于现有的隔夜政策利率对经济增长有利,加上通胀仍属可应付水平,经济学家认为,国行将在下周的货币政策会议上,维持3%不变。

经济学家说:“目前隔夜政策利率有助于增长,同时,也至少可促进今年上半年的金融和货币稳定。”

“目前通货膨胀由成本推动而非需求,(国行)应该会维持隔夜政策利率,支持增长动力。”

除此之外,经济学家相信,市场对美联储3月升息的预期,加上令吉贬值和市场逐渐复苏,会让国行更谨慎行事。 




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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #139 on: February 28, 2017, 02:31:35 PM »



Tuesday, 28 February 2017 | MYT 1:41 PM
Bank Negara: Malaysia's reserves remain usable
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/22/07/22/bank-negara-1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=CC7B9FF0B263714C2FCB4150638D2F1EF7DCBB6A

 
KUALA LUMPUR: The detailed breakdown of Malaysia's international reserves under the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard indicates that as at end-January 2017, the country's reserves remain usable.

In a statement on Tuesday, Bank Negara said the official reserve assets amounted to US$94.98 billion, while other foreign currency assets were at US$348.6 million as at end-January 2017.

The central bank said that for the next 12 months, the pre-determined short-term outflows of foreign currency loans arising from scheduled repayment of external borrowings by the government would amount to US$247.5 million.

Meanwhile, the short forward positions amounted to US$9.62 billion as at end-January 2017, reflecting efforts to manage the ringgit liquidity in the financial system.

Bank Negara said in line with the practice adopted since April 2006, the data excluded projected foreign currency inflows arising from interest income and the drawdown of project loans amounting to US$2.25 billion in the next 12 months.

It said the only contingent short-term net drain on foreign currency assets were government guarantees of foreign debt due within one year, amounting to US$84.7 million.

"There are no foreign currency loans with embedded options, no undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided by or to other central banks, international organisations, banks and other financial institutions.

"BNM also does not engage in foreign currency options vis-a-vis ringgit," it said. - Bernama

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/28/malaysia-reserves-remain-usable/#2xu1kvRiZX4fXpLo.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #140 on: March 02, 2017, 12:14:52 PM »



Bank Negara on edge after inflation spikes
Bloomberg | March 2, 2017
Rising oil prices add to pressure on inflation in the region.
bank-negara

KUALA LUMPUR: After more than a year of disinflation, price pressures are quickly mounting across Southeast Asia as fuel costs rise, putting central banks on watch after years of policy easing.
In Malaysia, consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in almost a year in January and economists see that as closing the door on another interest-rate cut at Thursday’s meeting even though the economy could do with more stimulus. From Singapore to Thailand, central banks are bracing for faster inflation.
The recent spike has been mainly caused by oil prices, which have surged 25% in the past six months. In a region where countries like Indonesia have been prone to high inflation in the past, and currencies are vulnerable – notably in Malaysia – central banks will need to monitor closely for any signs that rising fuel costs are spreading more broadly to prices in the economy.
“The obvious risk is that complacency leads central banks to miss inflation pressure spreading to the spending-driven CPI components, forcing more aggressive rate hikes and greater growth slowdowns down the road,” said Timothy Condon, head of Asian research at ING Group NV in Singapore.
The pick-up in inflation isn’t unique to Southeast Asia as higher commodity prices drive up costs across Asia. China’s factory prices have snapped years of deflation, with some analysts saying this is the hidden side of the global reflation trade.
For now, core measures of inflation in Southeast Asia – which exclude volatile items such as energy and food costs – remain contained, taking the pressure off central banks to take immediate action to tighten policy.
In Malaysia, where inflation reached 3.2% in January, the core measure was at 2.3%. The government’s projection is for headline inflation to average 2% to 3% this year.
On hold

“We’ve had a big swing from really depressed numbers,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney.
“Until there’s evidence that core inflation is on the rise and wages up with it, I don’t think we’re going to have any inflation dynamic going on in the region.”
Malaysia’s resolve will be tested on Thursday, with all but one of the 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting Bank Negara Malaysia will keep its policy rate on hold at 3%. ING Bank NV is forecasting a 25 basis-point reduction.
Inflation will probably accelerate to 4% in February, and average 3.5% this year, up from a previous forecast of 2.5 percent, according to Mohamed Faiz Nagutha, an economist with Merrill Lynch Asia Pacific Ltd in Hong Kong.
After surprising the market with an interest-rate cut in July last year, Faiz is predicting the central bank will be on hold for the rest of the year.
“We do not expect BNM to react to these spikes in headline CPI and rather focus on measures of core inflation,” he said.
The Philippines, which had the fastest economic expansion in Southeast Asia last year, may be the first country in the region to tighten monetary policy this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Inflation is running at the fastest pace in two years and the currency is the worst performer in Asia this year, down 1.1% against the dollar.
“The Philippines has been seeing strong growth, so greater scope for inflation pass-through,” said Khoon Goh, the Singapore-based head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
In Singapore, consumer prices rose for a second month in January after almost two years of declines, while a government report on Wednesday showed a surprise slowdown in Thailand’s inflation in February to 1.4%.
Aside from the Philippines, most of the economies in Southeast Asia are growing below par, which supports calls for more policy easing. Growth in Malaysia slowed to 4.2% last year from 5% in 2015, while Indonesia’s economy expanded 5% in 2016, below the government’s goal of 7%.
“The inflation outlook across the region is one that things will start picking up,” said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore.
“What we need to watch is second-round impacts of higher fuel inflation and the core inflation” measures, he said.
“If that was to start picking up, then I think we’ll see central banks becoming a bit more cautious about the inflation outlook.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #141 on: March 02, 2017, 03:48:38 PM »



Thursday, 2 March 2017 | MYT 3:14 PM
Overnight policy rate key unchanged at 3%
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/09/22/07/19/bank-negara2.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=B20FF2C777A06E5D46E68DDF71662A41A6C0FCE5

 
KUALA LUMPUR: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has maintained the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3% which was in line with economists' expectations.

In a statement released after the meeting on Thursday, BNM said at the current level of the OPR, the stance of monetary policy is “accommodative and supportive of economic activity”.

BNM said the MPC will continue to assess the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for domestic growth and inflation.

* The ringgit along with other emerging market currencies, has continued to stabilise.

* Malaysia's economic growth momentum from 2016 was also expected to be sustained in 2017.

* Headline inflation would be relatively higher in the first half of 2017 due to the pass-through impact of the increase in global oil prices on domestic retail fuel prices.

Commenting on the implementation of financial market development measures, it said they had a positive impact on the domestic financial markets. Banking system liquidity remains sufficient.

“Financial institutions continue to operate with strong capital and liquidity buffers and the growth of financing to the private sector is consistent with the pace of economic activity,” it said.

BNM also said the economic growth momentum from 2016 was expected to be sustained in 2017.

“With the growth of domestic demand being sustained, the more positive contribution from the external sector will lead to a better performance of the Malaysian economy,” it said. 

On the external front, BNM said economic activity in the advanced and emerging economies has continued to improve.

It noted that global trade was also showing a recovery. In this environment, the Asian economies are benefiting from stronger external demand amid sustained domestic activity.

For 2017, the global economy is projected to expand at a slightly faster pace, it said.

However, BNM cautioned there remain risks to global growth arising from threats such as protectionism, geopolitical developments, heightened volatility of financial markets and negative developments in the prices of key commodities. 

Despite the challenging global and domestic environment, the Malaysian economy expanded by 4.2% in 2016. Growth was underpinned by private sector activity, with additional support from the turnaround in net exports.

“The growth momentum is expected to be sustained in 2017. With the growth of domestic demand being sustained, the more positive contribution from the external sector will lead to a better performance of the Malaysian economy,” it said. 

BNM also projected headline inflation to be higher in 2017, reflecting primarily the pass-through impact of the increase in global oil prices on domestic retail fuel prices.

In the first half of 2017, headline inflation would remain relatively high before moderating thereafter.

It pointed out the projected trajectory of domestic headline inflation will be dependent on the future trend in global oil prices which remains highly uncertain.

“The cost-driven inflation is not expected to have a significant impact on the broader price trends given the stable domestic demand conditions. Core inflation is expected to increase modestly,” it said

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/02/overnight-policy-rate-key-unchanged-at-3pct/#bqTgtY9OxrMkARsi.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #142 on: March 06, 2017, 07:01:01 AM »



Bank Negara expected to keep policy rate unchanged for rest of 2017
Posted on 6 March 2017 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Analysts expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3% for the rest of the year, on uncertainties and expectations of stronger growth and higher inflation.

At its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last Thursday, BNM maintained the OPR at 3%, saying at the key rate’s current level, monetary policy stance is accommodative and supportive of economic activity.

The central bank said the MPC will continue to assess the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for domestic growth and inflation, adding it expects the economic growth momentum to be sustained in 2017.

In a report last Friday, AmBank Research said it believes that BNM will continue to keep the policy rate at 3% at least until September 2017, after the German elections.

The research house said by taking into account of the fundamentals and ongoing external noises, it saw a 30% chance for the central bank to raise rate by 25 basis points (bps) during the November MPC meeting.

In the meantime, AmBank Reserach said it saw a 45% chance for a cut in the statutory reserve requirement (SRR), now at 3.5%.

“Part of our argument is that liquidity is tightening as reflected by the rising trend of the loans/deposit ratio since November. A cut in the SRR should release around RM5 billion-RM6 billion of funds into the banking system. The last time we saw an SRR cut was in January 2016 by 50 bps to relief the tightening liquidity,” it noted.

Nevertheless, Hong Leong Investement Bank (HLIB) Research said despite high possibility of headline inflation overshooting the official range of 2%-3%, it does not anticipate BNM to react to it as it continues to reflect costpush factors.

“As domestic liquidity concern has eased, we opine that BNM may now shelve the SRR cut option and only deploy one in the event of adverse external development (i.e. triggered by European politics).

“At the current level of OPR, the MPC said, the stance of monetary policy is accommodative and supportive of economic activity. We take this as a signal that BNM prefers to leave the OPR unchanged so long as outlook of GDP (gross domestic product) growth and core inflation falls within the official projection range (4-5% GDP growth in 2017),” it added.

HLIB Research said it expects inflation to average 3.4% this year, following higher fuel prices (Brent crude assumption: US$55 per barrel in 2017; average 2016: US$44 per barrel), sustained food inflation and weaker ringgit.

However, it said there is a high possibility of the consumer price index overshooting 4% in early 2017 before moderating in the second half due to low base effect of oil prices in 2016.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #143 on: March 07, 2017, 04:05:25 PM »



Tuesday, 7 March 2017 | MYT 3:13 PM
BNM foreign reserves unchanged at US$95b at Feb 28
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/09/22/07/19/bank-negara2.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=B20FF2C777A06E5D46E68DDF71662A41A6C0FCE5

 
KUALA LUMPUR:  Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves were nearly unchanged  at US$95bil or RM426.3bil as at Feb 28.

The central bank said on Tuesday the reserves position was sufficient to finance 8.5 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

The international reserves were nearly unchanged when compared with the US$95bil or US$426.2bil as at Feb 15.

The reserves position then was enough to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and was 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/07/bnm-foreign-reserves-unchanged-at-us$95b-at-feb-28/#vDxZrOJBuMYXpLDq.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #144 on: March 22, 2017, 04:04:06 PM »



Wednesday, 22 March 2017 | MYT 3:20 PM
Bank Negara’s international reserves at US$94.9bil
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2015/06/03/13/37/banknegara.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=09C15223783BB9E7D7A03F34BEAEC803E66FA6EB

 
KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia’s international reserves stood at US$94.9bil or RM425.6bil as at March 15, 2017.


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image: http://bcp.crwdcntrl.net/5/c=5593/b=38427131


The central bank said on Wednesday the reserves position was sufficient to finance 8.3 months of retained imports and was 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Bank Negara said the reserves were made up of US$88.3bil in foreign currency reserves, US$0.8bil International Monetary Fund reserves position, US$1.1bil in holdings of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), US$1.4bil in gold and US$3.3bil consisted of other assets.

The international reserves were marginally lower when compared with the US$95bil or US$426.3bil as at Feb 28. The reserves position then was enough to finance 8.5 months of retained imports and was 1.1 times the short-term external debt.
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/22/bank-negara-international-reserves-at-usd94-9bil/#jHWbaRrBJdVP7YeJ.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #145 on: March 23, 2017, 08:26:06 PM »



Thursday, 23 March 2017 | MYT 5:01 PM
Highlights of Bank Negara Annual Report 2016
BY LEONG HUNG YEE

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/23/09/18/bank-negara-annual-report.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=6BA96967E1C603A5D0A29D9F78C5E6294C0A9E53

 
The annual report provides an analysis of the developments in the Malaysian economy and outlines the challenges ahead.

Economy

• The Malaysian economy registered a commendable growth of 4.2% in 2016.

• The country’s economy is projected to register 4.3% - 4.8% growth in 2017.

• Domestic demand continues to be the principal driver of growth.

• Private consumption growth is expected to expand 6% in 2017.

• The current account is expected to register a surplus of 1.0% - 2.0% of gross national income (GNI) in 2017.

• Headline inflation is projected to average higher in the range of 3.0% - 4.0% in 2017.

• The international reserves of Bank Negara amounted to US$94.5bil (equivalent to RM423.9bil) as at end-2016.

• Current account position stood at RM25.2bil or 2.1% of GNI, a smaller amount compared to the previous year (2015: RM34.7bil, 3.1% of GNI).

Monetary and fiscal policy

• Monetary policy in 2017 will continue to ensure that its stance is consistent with sustaining a steady growth path amid price stability.

• Fiscal policy in 2017 will focus on further strengthening of the Government’s fiscal position, while ensuring continued support for domestic growth and promoting economic inclusiveness.

• The Federal Government’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow further, underpinned by sustained growth in revenue and a modest expansion in operating expenditure.

• In the 2017 Budget, fiscal resources have been strategically prioritised towards high impact infrastructure projects and programmes for capacity building.

• For the year as a whole, the ringgit depreciated by 4.3% to end the year at RM4.486 against the US dollar.

• The Financial Markets Committee (FMC), in collaboration with Bank Negara, introduced several measures to deepen and broaden the domestic foreign exchange market, including by promoting foreign exchange hedging within the domestic foreign exchange market.

• Another measure was to require the conversion of foreign currency export proceeds into ringgit.

External debt

• The external debt stood at RM908.7bil, equivalent to US$200.6bil or 73.9% of GDP as at end-2016 (2015: RM833.8bil).

• Malaysia’s external debt position increased by 6.2%, mainly on account of higher intercompany and interbank borrowings.

• Malaysia’s external debt remains manageable given its currency, maturity and balance sheet profiles. About 34.4% of the external debt is denominated in ringgit, mainly in the form of non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities and deposits.

• Offshore borrowing declined to 42.7% of GDP as at end-2016 compared to 60% of GDP during the Asian Financial Crisis.

• As at end-2016, Malaysia recorded a current account surplus and remains a net creditor nation, with international reserves accounting for only a quarter of total external assets.

Bank Negara assets

• Bank Negara’s total assets amounted to RM451bil, with a net profit of RM6.5bil for the financial year ended Dec 31,2016

• Bank Negara declared a dividend of RM2.5bil to the Government for the year 2016

Affordable housing issues

• Since 2012, the increase in house prices in Malaysia has outstripped the rise in income levels. Consequently, prevailing median house prices are beyond the reach of most Malaysians.

• The undersupply of housing is particularly acute in the affordable housing segment. This is likely to worsen going forward given current trends in income and demographic factors.

• Growth in loans outstanding for home purchase averaged at 13.2% during 2012-2014 (2008-2009: 9.8%). This moderated to 9.2% in 2016 due to the softer housing market.

• As at end-2016, about 56% of loans outstanding were for houses priced below RM250,000, while loans for houses priced between RM250,000 to RM500,000 accounted for another 25%.

• Rejection rates for housing loan applications fell further to 23.6% in 2016 (2012 - 2015: 26.1%).

• Loans for real estate activities and residential property construction increased at a healthy rate of 11.7% in 2016.

• Meeting the demand of affordable housing units going forward requires the commitment of both the Government and the private sector.

• On the demand side, the development of the rental market to bridge the affordability gap could relieve some of the pressure on the Government to build all of the affordable housing

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/23/highlights-of-bank-negara-malaysia-2016-annual-report/#4kFmbSf4kX3ZBrQP.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #146 on: March 23, 2017, 08:30:23 PM »



Bank Negara: Jobless youths on the rise and many are young grads
TheEdgeThu, Mar 23, 2017

KUALA LUMPUR (March 23): Youths unemployment has been on the rise in the country as growth in hiring slowed since late 2014, and was estimated to have reached 10.7% in 2015, over three times the national unemployment rate of 3.1%, according to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

And among these jobless youths, young graduates make up a relatively larger share of unemployed youths, at 23%, said BNM.

“In 2015, youth unemployment rate increased by 1.2 percentage points from an estimated 9.5% to 10.7%, while the national unemployment rate increased by only 0.2 percentage points (2.9% to 3.1%) during the same period,” said BNM in its Annual Report 2016 released today.

Businesses have been restrained by cautious business sentiments and moderating economic performance from expanding their workforce, and youths have been the most vulnerable in this situation, it said.

“They are likely to be the last to be hired and the first to be made redundant due to their lack of experience, higher information asymmetry in the labour market, and poor ability to communicate their skills effectively to employers.”

Among working youths, the chart tends to skew towards those with lower education levels, it said. Of those aged 15 to 24, only 16% have had tertiary education, while the highest level of schooling attained by the remaining 84% is secondary education.

"Notably, youths with tertiary education make up a relatively larger share of unemployed youths (23% of total unemployed youths). Of concern, among those with tertiary educational attainment, the unemployment rate is higher at 15.3% (youths without tertiary education: 9.8%)," it said.

Chief among factors that led to high youth and graduate uemployment was that job creation locally has remained focused on low and mid-skilled jobs, as domestic industries stay in low-value-added activities that emphasise cost efficiency and dependence on cheap labour, rather than pursue innovation for more growth.

“The Malaysian economy also continues to face the challenge of attracting high-quality investments that would create more high-paying, high skilled jobs for the local workforce,” it added. Ironically, skills shortage was highlighted in turn by firms as a key factor that prevents them from making investments to move up the value chain.

This mismatch between the changes in the workforce’s education level and types of jobs created is seen, in some extent, “in the anaemic demand for fresh graduates, as online job postings for entry-level positions for graduates have remained largely stagnant since 2012," it added.

Employers also continue to cite significant skill gaps among new recruits, the central bank said, with most blaming the state of the national education, and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems.

“The lack of industry involvement in human capital development has also contributed to the dearth of truly effective training programmes for workers,” it noted.

Going forward, the twin developments of persistent high youth unemployment and rising income inequality may constrain social mobility, and lead to increasing dissatisfaction among the populace, BNM warned.

This has already led to brain drain — the flight of high-skilled talent to advanced economies and neighbouring countries, in search of better jobs and pay, it said.

Addressing this problem must be made a permanent national agenda, the central bank urged. "Quality education, including an effective TVET sector, is important towards building human capital," it stressed.

Second to that is meaningful industry collaboration in education and training, followed by a comprehensive social security infrastructure, including active labour market policies (ALMP) targeting youths and displaced workers.

The Employment Insurance Scheme announced in Budget 2015, BNM said, contains ALMP measures as a main feature, including career counselling services and training schemes.

Besides "conscientious implementation" of various blueprints and programmes, BNM said there must be a functional governance structure, effective monitoring and active enhancements to existing initiatives, with careful review over time.


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #147 on: March 23, 2017, 09:57:12 PM »



Top 20 income group has largest share of debt, says Bank Negara
 banknegaramalaysia
 1 comments      Bernama     Published Today 6:22 pm     Updated Today 6:47 pm

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The largest share of debt, about 40 percent, is owed by individuals in the top 20 income group who earned over RM8,000 a month, says Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

In its 2016 Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report released today, BNM said the average debt level for borrowers in this group was more than double that observed for other borrower groups.

"The debt servicing capacity of this group is reasonably healthy as indicated by more prudent debt service ratios.

"Relative to other income segments, a large share of this debt is secured, with about 77 percent of debt taken out for the purchase of properties and principal-guaranteed investments which contribute towards individuals’ wealth accumulation," it said.

Borrowers in the more vulnerable income segments in the bottom 40 income group, earning less than RM3,500 a month, accounted for only 11.4 percent of total debt.

However, they were more likely to face difficulty servicing their debt in the event of a payment shock, given thinner buffers.

BNM said about 53 percent of borrowings by this group remained sensitive to changes in interest rates, which could have a disproportionate impact on debt repayment capacity given the low absolute income levels.

The report highlighted that about two-thirds of total debt was acquired by those living in major employment centres, namely Selangor, Johor, Kuala Lumpur and Penang.

"A significant portion of debt is for the purchase of residential property, followed by debt for vehicle purchases and personal use, corresponding to the need for greater mobility and higher expenditures associated with raising young families and urban lifestyle choices," it added.

- Bernama



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/376807#ixzz4c9knkjn2

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #148 on: March 24, 2017, 06:33:56 AM »



M'sia short of 1m affordable houses by 2020, BNM estimates
Kow Gah Chie
23 Mar 2017, PM 7:58 (Updated 23 Mar 2017, PM 11:06)
 banknegaramalaysia inflation


 
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) warns that the country may face a shortage of one million units of affordable houses priced below RM250,000 by 2020.

"The housing market has not been able to provide an adequate supply of affordable housing for the masses. The undersupply of affordable homes is likely to worsen going forward given current trends in income and demographic factor," said BNM in its 2016 Annual Report released today.

This is despite multiple programmes by the private sector, the federal government and state governments to supply affordable housing, said BNM.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #149 on: March 24, 2017, 06:36:31 AM »



Household debt to GDP ratio falls to 88.4%
Posted on 24 March 2017 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s total household debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio last year contracted for the first time since 2010, according to Bank Negara’s Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report 2016.

As at the end of 2016, the total household debt to GDP ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.1% in 2015, despite a slowdown in economic growth to 4.2%, which potentially marks a turning point for adjustments in household leverage.

Growth in total household debt, which stood at RM1.09 trillion, moderated further to 5.4% in 2016 versus 7.3% in 2015, the slowest pace since 2010.

Both household financial assets and liquid financial assets remained high on aggregate, accounting for 2.1 and 1.4 times of debt respectively.

In value terms, household financial assets increased RM113.4 billion against an increase of RM55.6 billion in debt.

The report highlighted that the capacity of households to service debt remains firm, with average income registering a modest 5.5% growth.

In 2016, about 41% of borrowers with newly approved loans had a debt service ratio of less than 40%.

However, households with monthly earnings of up to RM3,000 continue to be more vulnerable due to low financial buffers and higher leverage.

The report noted that total exposures of Malaysian financial institutions to the domestic property market expanded 8% in 2016 to RM793.9 billion, accounting for 26.7% of total financial system assets as at end-2016.

The level of total impaired loans, however, increased 6.3% compared with the previous year, mainly from borrowings for investment purchases of property and personal financing.

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