Author Topic: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR  (Read 17852 times)

Offline king

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #150 on: March 24, 2017, 06:52:45 AM »



财经  2017年03月23日
国行:经济加速成长 通胀非升息唯一考量

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国行:经济加速成长 通胀非升息唯一考量

(吉隆坡23日讯)在稳健的私人界內需与外部经济好转的支撑下,国家银行看好大马经济可在2017年重新加速成长,预计今年国內生產总值(GDP)增长4.3%至4.8%,比去年的4.2%高;惟,隨著国际油价回升,通胀率预计將从2016年的2.1%,提升到3%至4%。

国行总裁拿督莫哈末依布拉欣在今日发布「2016年国行年报」媒体匯报会上透露,今年通胀率应会在预测区间波动,某些月份甚至会突破4%水平,不过在年杪时將重新回落至较低水平。

「国內总体通胀率走势,很大程度受国际油价的起伏所影响,而油价的未来变化却充满不確定性;国行估计,布伦特油价今年会在每桶50至55美元之间波动。」

他补充道,石油输出国组织(OPEC)会否延长减產协议、全球经济恢復状况和地缘政治因素,是令油价未来走势难以预测的3项主因。


外匯储备仍充裕

当被询及高企的通胀率是否为国行带来升息压力,依布拉欣仅表示,通胀率並非国行调整货幣政策的唯一考量,该行將会在下一次召开货幣政策会议前,仔细研究所有最新相关数据,如就业率等,再作决定。国行將在5月12日召开下一轮的货幣政策会议。

针对国行外匯储备在去年降至约950亿美元,依布拉欣指出,这一水平的外匯储备依然充裕,足以应付8.3个月的进口额和1.1倍的短期外债,而且在分散国家外部资產的策略下,国行外匯储备在去年只占大马总体外部资產的26%,其余74%或2654亿美元的外部资產则由国內银行系统和非银行企业所持有。

「这占总体74%的外部资產,会成为国家金融体系吸收外界衝击的第一道缓衝,国行只需在必要时才动用所持有的外匯储备。」

莫哈末依布拉欣(右)和副总裁苏迪星出席2016年国行年报匯报会。(摄影:曾鉦勤)
莫哈末依布拉欣(右)和副总裁苏迪星出席2016年国行年报匯报会。(摄影:曾鉦勤)

此外,依布拉欣透露,自金融市场委员会(FMC)在去年12月採取外匯管制措施后,两个月来已有20亿美元(约88亿5000万令吉)的出口收入被兑换为令吉,而接下来的数个月有望继续保持这一趋势,增强市场对令吉的需求。

「自12月起,令吉的波动性已由以往的10%至12%,下降一半,到5%至6%。」

同时,他指出,令吉的真实价值由市场供需决定,並且不断变化。

「根据市场趋势,令吉在去年的真实价值为3.60令吉兑1美元,但目前又提高至3.90令吉兑1美元的水平。」

至于大马今年的进出口表现,依布拉欣称,我国进出口今年会同时增长,但进口成长步伐会快于出口,因此贸易盈余將进一步缩减,处在占国民生產总值(GNI)的1%至2%。

另一方面,依布拉欣强调,价格过高,加上可负担房屋供应不足,是导致大马大多数人难以负担买房的主因。

「土地和周边基建设施占了可负担房屋的一半建筑费用,各方须想办法降低这一方面的成本,以提高可负担房屋的供应量。」

他亦称,大马家庭债务水平已从占GDP逾89%,降至2016年的88.1%,是个好现象。

Offline king

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #151 on: March 24, 2017, 07:00:52 AM »



4问题损国本
失业率高 房价续涨 盈余减少 外劳太多
984点看 2017年3月23日
 

(吉隆坡23日讯)全球以至国内经济,充斥各种不稳定因素;外围如何,超出我们可控制的范围,但在国内,我们必须做好各种准备拼竞争力,才能确保屹立不倒。


国家银行总裁拿督慕哈末,配合国行2016年报出炉,点出我国经济面临四大结构问题。

他认为,这些问题有损竞争力和国家经济,间接引起民怨,必须加速从根本纠正。

慕哈末:与全国比较 

青年失业率多2倍

国家银行总裁拿督慕哈末点出,目前大马面对四大经济问题,有损竞争力,对国家经济不利;分别是年轻人失业率高、家庭收入追不上房价、来往账项盈余收窄,及过度依赖外劳。

慕哈末在《2016国行年报》的编辑汇报会上指出,我国年轻人失业率在2015年,达10.7%,比全国失业率的3.1%,高出超过2倍。

根据国行的年报,去年有高达61%的失业群体,年龄落在15岁至29岁,其中又以20至24岁的人数占最多,达18万9000人。

国行指,他们对于失业年轻人的定义为15至24岁。

此外,慕哈末表示:“年轻人失业率持续居高不下,及收入不平衡,可能会损及经济,及使到大众之间产生不满意情绪。”

因此他认为,我国应该要发展高素质教育和培训系统、积极与领域合作,及建立社会保障基础设施,以解决年轻人失业率偏高的问题。



75%房屋负担不起

至于家庭收入追不上屋价,慕哈末重申,无法取得贷款不是主要问题,关键是家庭收入水平不高,加上房屋价格高企。

他指出,去年,我国房屋贷款增长超过9%,贷款批准率达73%,证明无法取得贷款,不是人民所面对主要问题。

根据国行分析,每个月收入3000令吉或以下的家庭,可负担屋价最高达17万6000令吉;每个月收入低于5000令吉的家庭,最高可负担28万3000令吉的屋价;而每个月收入达1万或以下的家庭,可负担的房价最高为51万5000令吉。

他说:“以目前市场的房屋供应来看,达3/4的供应,不属于可负担房屋。”

此外,根据房价对收入比指标,可负担房屋水平应该落在3倍或以下,但大马从2004年至2014年却一直高过3倍。

2014年,该指标更达4.4倍,属于严重无法负担组别。

同时,大部分州属的屋价相对家庭收入中值,也处于无法负担房屋水平,其中,最严重的是沙巴。



3年内缺百万间可负担屋

慕哈末认为,大马必须重新平衡房屋供应到可负担房屋。

他还说,国行预计2014年的可负担房屋供应短缺达96万个单位,到了2020年,增加至100万个单位。

他建议由一家中央机构管理国内可负担房屋相关事宜。

同时,慕哈末称赞一马房屋计划(PR1MA)推出的灵活融资方案(SPEF),是一项很创新的方案。

“我个人认为,若是这项计划起到作用,我们应该要扩增至私人领域的可负担房屋发展计划,因这能够帮助到我国人民。”

此外针对发展商指,土地和建筑工程攀升,占总成本50%所以无法提供更低的售价。他说:“我们可以做到更多,例如州政府以更可负担的价格提供地皮。”

同时,国行认为,也必须推动房屋的租赁市场,成为国民的另一项选择。

在大马,只有24%的家庭租屋子。

“长期来看,国民仍必须提升收入水平,以追得上房价。”

bn3_noresize

生活成本涨推高家债

我国家庭债务偏高,与人民生活成本息息相关。

慕哈末认为,解决家债高企,关键在于在生活成本升高时,提供更多负担房屋,及兴建更多公共交通,因为房屋贷款和汽车贷款占了家庭债务很高比例。

根据年报,去年的家庭债务占国内生产总值(GDP)达88.4%,低于2015年的89.1%。

同时,总家庭债务年度增速也从2015年的7.3%,下跌至5.4%,主要是因为家庭减少贷款,包括非住宅产业、汽车和证券贷款等。

家庭债务的增长率也是自2010年首次低于名义GDP增长率,可能成为家庭债务调整的转折点。

慕哈末说:“若这股趋势持续,家庭债务将会减少。但接下来的降幅将趋稳。”

针对科技崛起,如电子钱包的出现是否会提高家庭债务的问题,他指,40%至50%使用信用卡的人都在结账日前准时偿还款项。

“他们使用信用卡是为了便利和付款,而不是借贷。”

因此,扩展至使用扣帐卡和电子钱包都是为了方便消费者使用。

经济多元化增加盈余

慕哈末指出,我国来往账项盈余已收窄,所以必须持续把经济和出口生产多元化。

“这些结构重组,有助于打造国家的弹性和韧性,以便可面对来自全球市场的挑战。”

根据《2016年国行年报》,去年,大马来往账项盈余达252亿令吉,或相等于人均国民总收入(GNI)的2.1%;低于2015年的347亿令吉或3.1%。

今年,国行预计,来往账项盈余将进一步降低至174亿令吉,相等于GNI的1%至2%。

不过,他说:“由于预计今年全球经济好过去年,加上今年首两个月的出口和进口表现不俗,所以估计今年将持续录得来往账项盈余,不会陷入赤字。”

针对未来的来往账项盈余占GNI是否会回到2015年的4.5%?慕哈末说:“不会回升到那么高水平,但未来取决于经济架构。”

他也解释,若大马持续多元化经济,不依靠特定国家,那么就可以改善来往账项盈余。

“这也是我一直强调必须持续多元化增长来源的原因。”

慕哈末强调,大马不能够一直依赖传统增长来源,因为科技全球化将会影响全球经济,所以我国也必须迈向该方向。

其他多元化经济举措,他举例,之前已执行的放宽印度和中国签证申请,有助于提高游客人数;也建议国内大型建筑工程,使用本地资源,取代进口原料。

明年起公布被处罚银行

慕哈末说,今早已向金融机构宣布,从2018年1月1日起,将会公布被国行处罚的银行名字、罚款总额,以及罚款的原因。

“我们将会透明化的披露这些信息。”

此前,国行在今年1月宣布,已对一家未能及时通知该行,有关交易员涉及操纵令吉美元汇率报价不当行为的金融机构,实施行政罚款140万令吉。

另外,针对1990年代的外汇亏损事件,慕哈末说,上周与特工队首次接洽,并会全面配合协助调查。

他说:“我们获悉将在3个月内完成调查报告。”

国家银行前助理总裁拿督阿都慕勒今年1月爆料,前首相敦马哈迪领导的政府在1991至1993年期间,在外汇交易市场面对严重亏损,导致国家蒙受100亿美元(约440亿令吉)的损失,而政府当年对外公布损失90亿令吉。

之后,首相拿督斯里纳吉表明政府将严正看待,并承诺查明事情真相,于2月22日委任前政府首席秘书丹斯里西迪哈山为特工队主席。

确保金融服务全面化

除了上述四大经济架构问题,国行也关注金融包容性,确保所有社会层面都能够获得金融服务。

国行也会加强让中小企业取得融资的机会,因为中小企业是我国很大的雇主,所以必须确保他们拥有足够融资。

同时,慕哈末认为,社会需要更多新的融资来源,如天使基金、群众筹资和创投,以协助初创企业。

不过,国行将确保金融系统不会被滥用或用作非法活动。


国行认为,大马需要一项长期的劳工政策。

过度依赖外劳不利经济

慕哈末也指出,大马过度依赖外劳也是对经济不利的因素之一。

他指,在大马工作的外劳与低收入群体(B40)直接竞争,导致后者薪金无法显着调涨。

“我们必须减少对低成本经济模式过度依赖,及提升人民的薪金。”

他还说,大马拥有一笔基金供给中小企业自动化营运,但他们并无好好使用该笔基金。

“大部分中小企业没有把营运自动化,仍依赖旧生产模式,这无法持久。而且依赖低成本生产,大马未来会被其他邻国,如柬埔寨、寮国、缅甸、越南等打败。”

慕哈末说,大马需要一项长期的劳工政策。

“这就像银行领域大蓝图一样,当初我们对银行业者说,只给他们10年时间提升竞争力和准备就绪,之后就会开放市场与海外业者竞争。

“不管你喜欢与否,这就是一项蓝图,而他们必须作好准备。”

因此,他认为,大马也需要类似的劳工政策。

他说,当他与私人界会面时,他们也认同依赖外劳对经济不利,且愿意作出调整,但需要实际政策。


慕哈末周四在《2016年国行年报》记者会上回答媒体的提问,左为国家银行副总裁苏迪夫星博士。

外汇储备高于门槛3倍

针对我国外汇储备是否足够,慕哈末说,我国截至3月15外汇储备达949亿美元,足以应付8.3个月进口,高于门槛的3倍水平。

“我们对于目前这水平感到舒适。”

不过,更重要的是持有的外汇储备一定要足以提供流动资金给金融系统。

以目前的水平来看,国行估计足够。

同时,他指出,目前的外汇储备,相比1997年的规模超过4倍。

“更重要的是,我们自2005年开始,就逐步分散外汇储备。目前,有25%是国行的外汇储备,而75%则是银行和非银行企业的海外资产。”

在2005年,则有59%在外汇储备,41%为银行和非银行企业的海外资产。因此,他认为,不应该只是看国行的外汇储备而已,而是要看整个系统的数据。

油价加剧通胀提升

今年通胀率达3%至4%,高于去年平均的2.1%,主要反映国家原油价格价格上涨,影响国内燃料零售价格下,所带来成本因素的通胀情况。

国行提出数据,RON95的平均零售价格从2016年的每公升1.76令吉,提高至今年首季的2.23令吉。

“我们预计,油价将上升至每桶50至55美元,甚至更高,进一步提升通胀率。”

虽然开出高于去年的预测,但国行声明,鉴于国内需求情况稳定,这以成本因素的通胀,不会造成产品价格显着上涨的情况。

国行在年报列出,三个主要因素影响今年通胀表现。

首先,如果国家原油价格涨幅超过预期,通胀率将会随之提升;其二,令吉汇率的贬值也会对国内产品价格产生不容忽视的直接影响。第三,我国与贸易伙伴的经济增长势头,对通膨造成上行或下行压力。

外资流出料减缓

慕哈末指,国行认为,预计接下来不会像之前一样有显着外资流出。

随着美联储升息,基金经理重新调整投资组合,所以撤离大马市场;过去几年放松出口收入,国行发现很多出口商并无把出口所得的收入兑换为令吉,使到大马失去大批令吉。

这两大因素,拖累去年令吉兑美元大幅贬值。

不过,随着去年12月推出的措施有助于稳定令吉,包括要求出口商将75%的出口收益兑换为令吉和限制岸外无本金交割远期外汇(NDF)活动。

慕哈末说:“这些措施对令吉有很显着的影响,因为过去两个月的走势相当稳定。”

他强调,更重要的是,NDF市场是一个非常不透明化的市场,不管是定价或交易对象;之前的交易值介于30亿至50亿美元,但现在却少于10亿美元。

“只要外资不再撤离市场,以及出口商开始把出口所得兑换成令吉,令吉将更靠近基本面。不过,这需要时间。”

他指,今年首两个月出口商把出口所得兑换成令吉的水平达22亿美元,而2016年和2015年兑换水平分别落在负数5亿美元和85亿美元。

同时,他也说:“我国多数外资已在过去几个月完成重新调整投资组合的活动。因此,我们预计,接下来不会出现显著的外资流出。”

至于是否会推出更多措施,他指,国行的政策必须是务实和拥有前瞻性。

“至今,我们认为,去年12月推出的措施已足够。不过,我们接下来还会推出其他措施,以深化会和金融市场。”

慕哈末在媒体汇报会时说,国行正探讨着让中小企业对外汇进行护盘的措施。

“国行在探讨着让企业拥有较长的时间进行护盘,以管理令吉的波动和经

Offline king

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #152 on: March 24, 2017, 03:13:43 PM »



Highlight
Bank Negara 'hawkish policy direction' seen amid broadening inflation — CIMB
By Samantha Ho / theedgemarkets.com   | March 24, 2017 : 2:14 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (March 24): CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said broadening inflation signs beyond energy and food prices, may nudge Bank Negara Malaysia in a "more hawkish policy direction".

For now, CIMB economist Michelle Chia said Bank Negara's monetary policy appeared "finely balanced", amid a more optimistic economic growth and higher inflation outlook for Malaysia. Bank Negara's overnight policy rate (OPR) is at 3%.

"A challenging policy trade-off confronts BNM (Bank Negara), as it balances risks of sustaining economic growth, achieving price stability and managing spillovers from an uncertain external environment," Chia wrote in note today. Chia said CIMB was maintaining its end-2017 OPR forecast at 3%.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd economist Sia Ket Ee said the research firm also expects Bank Negara to maintain OPR at current level, in anticipation of Malaysia's modest economic growth this year.
 
"We maintain our GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecast of 4.5%, driven by primary sectors and construction projects. Given the potential output growth of 4.5-5.0%, we opine that GDP growth is unlikely to surpass this range in 2017 to cause overheating. Consequently, we do not expect BNM to alter OPR this year, due to modest growth trajectory," Sia wrote in a note today.

CIMB and Hong Leong's notes followed the release of Bank Negara's 2016 Annual Report and 2016 Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report yesterday.

Bank Negara said in its annual report that in 2017, the Malaysian economy is expected to grow between 4.3% and 4.8% from a year earlier.
 
"Headline inflation is projected to average higher in the range of 3.0% - 4.0% in 2017, given the prospect of higher global commodity and energy prices, and the impact of the depreciation of the ringgit exchange rate," Bank Negara said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #153 on: April 13, 2017, 03:03:07 PM »



ighlight
BNM unveils new measures to expand onshore financial market, short-selling of MGS
Ahmad Naqib Idris
/
theedgemarkets.com

April 13, 2017 14:31 pm MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (April 13): Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has announced its second series of development initiatives to expand and deepen the onshore financial markets following the first set of measures introduced in December last year.

The central bank unveiled four measures to promote a fair and effective financial market, improve liquidity in the bond market, provide additional foreign exchange (FX) flexibility and strengthen the financial market infrastructure.

To promote a fair and effective market, BNM Assistant Governor Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid said the central bank will introduce five universal principles — namely professionalism and integrity, transparency and accountability, competitive environment, good internal governance and structure, and compliance to rules and regulations.

"This is a policy document that we are going to publish today. It espouses five universal principles that will be the guide and the anchor for all codes and all regulations that are issued to govern conduct and behaviour in the financial markets," he told a press conference today.

A revised code of conduct for Malaysia wholesale financial markets will also be introduced to ensure integrity of financial markets, which will replace the existing code of conduct for principals and brokers in the wholesale money and foreign exchange markets issued by BNM in 1994.

To improve liquidity in the bond market, the central bank will also expand regulated short-selling of Malaysian government securities (MGS) to all resident entities, compared to the existing framework which only allows licensed banks and investment banks to conduct regulated short-selling.

"Short-selling also has its benefits for other entities as it allows hedging of interest rates using MGS. This is a common practice even in many developed markets, where short-selling of government bonds takes place as a tool to manage international rate exposure.

"This is a liberalisation for the MGS market, where under the new framework, all resident entities including investors and issuers can short-sell MGS effective May 2. We will issue the guidelines on this today," he said.

He added that BNM will also be issuing a concept paper today to expand the framework to include the regulated short-selling of Malaysian government investment issue (MGII) to get the industry's feedback by April 28.

The central bank will also be streamlining its framework on hedging, as well as provide greater flexibility in hedging.

Adnan pointed out that in December last year, BNM announced that fund managers are able to manage their FX exposure for up to 25% of their assets under management (AUM). With the new framework, institutional investors — including companies — will be allowed to have a net forward hedge position up to 100% of their underlying assets.

"This is a flexibility that we have considered and BNM will allow investors to actively manage FX exposure or up to 100% of their AUM effective May 2. This would be opened up to not only investors, but companies as well," he said.

He said BNM will issue notices on this measure sometime by the end of next week.

In addition, residents will have freedom to hedge without documentary evidence up to an aggregate net open position of RM6 million per client per bank, with the new framework to include other major currency pairs such as the pound sterling, euro and yen on top of the US dollar and renminbi.

The fourth measure sees the introduction of an Ultimate Beneficial Owner (UBO) framework to improve the financial market infrastructure.

"Over the past few years, BNM has been enhancing the surveillance mechanism for the bond market. We have in place the UBO, which enables surveillance over who the ultimate owners of the bond investments held in the domestic market," said Adnan.

The central bank will be working with industry players and its subsidiary Malaysian Electronic Clearing Corp Sdn Bhd (MyClear) — the operator of the real-time gross settlement system RENTAS — to upgrade the system.

"So this is something that will take place over the next 18 months. Once it's upgraded, the bond market framework will comprise the real-time surveillance as well as the current regular-basis reporting, either on a monthly or quarterly basis as needed," he said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #154 on: May 08, 2017, 06:23:02 PM »



经济学家:GDP料增4.5%
“国行不太可能下调OPR”
138点看 2017年5月8日
 

(吉隆坡8日讯)裕利安宜(Euler Hermes)香港有限公司亚太区资深经济学家林茂德预计,大马今年的国内生产总值将会增长4.5%,并认为国行今年不太可能会下调隔夜政策利率(OPR)。


“我国今年的国内生产总值预计会增长4.5%,主要是受出口所推动。”

林茂德今日在2017年后的大马展望、增长前景与增长要素的新闻发布会上,对媒体发表上述谈话。

“全球贸易出现复苏的现象,我们预计全球贸易价值将增长3.6%。”


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #155 on: May 12, 2017, 03:53:52 PM »



MALAYSIACORPORATE
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No change to OPR
theedgemarkets.com
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May 12, 2017 15:06 pm MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (May 12): As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3% after its third policy meeting of the year.

The central bank has left the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3% since July 13, 2016.

"At the current level of the OPR, the stance of monetary policy is accommodative and supportive of economic activity," said BNM in a statement today.

The central bank said Malaysia's growth momentum since the second half of last year is expected to strengthen in the first quarter of 2017, and to be sustained for the rest of the year.

"Growth will be mainly driven by domestic demand amid continued wage and employment growth, and the implementation of new and on-going investment projects," it said.

On the external front, given the improvement in global growth, the central bank also expects the country's exports to perform more strongly and contribute positively to economic performance.

It noted that headline inflation increased to 4.3% in the first quarter of the year, which was in line with the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) expectations.

"The increase in inflation reflected mainly the pass-through impact of higher global oil prices and temporary supply disruptions that led to higher food prices. The higher headline inflation is expected to moderate in the second half of the year.

"However, the trend of domestic headline inflation will be dependent on future global oil prices which remain highly uncertain. The cost-push inflation is not expected to have a significant impact on the broader price trends given the stable domestic demand conditions. Underlying inflation, as measured by core inflation, is expected to increase only modestly," said BNM.

It also pointed out that the ringgit has continued to stabilise. "Banking system liquidity remains sufficient. Financial institutions continue to operate with strong capital and liquidity buffers and the growth of financing to the private sector is consistent with the pace of economic activity," it added.

At 3.07pm, the ringgit was traded 0.02% lower at 4.3492 against the US dollar.

On the global front, BNM warned that there remain risks to global growth arising from threats such as protectionism, geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility, which could reignite financial market volatility.

 

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #156 on: May 22, 2017, 03:46:39 PM »



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Bank Negara's foreign reserves up 1.2% to US$97.3b as at May 15, 2017
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May 22, 2017 15:00 pm MYT
 
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KUALA LUMPUR (May 22): The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia rose 1.2% to US$97.3 billion (RM430.5 billion) as at May 15, 2017 from US$96.1 billion (RM425.2 billion) as at April 28, 2017.

In a statement today, the central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.8 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Of the reserves, foreign currency made up the biggest portion at US$90.7 billion.

The rest comprised International Monetary Fund (IMF) reserves at US$800 million, special drawing rights (US$1.1 billion), gold (US$1.6 billion) and other reserve assets (US$3.1 billion).

As at May 15, 2017, total assets were RM455.16 billion, while currency in circulation fell 1.1% to RM99.06 billion from RM100.13 billion as of April 28, 2017, said the central bank.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #157 on: May 31, 2017, 02:20:02 PM »



2017-05-31 14:02
国行:官方储备资产961.5亿美元
国际货币基金组织的数据公布特殊标准(SDDS)显示,截至2017年4月杪,大马的储备金依然充裕。
(吉隆坡31日讯)国际货币基金组织的数据公布特殊标准(SDDS)显示,截至2017年4月杪,大马的储备金依然充裕。

广告

国家银行今日发表文告说,截至今年1月杪,官方储备资产为961亿500万美元(约4103亿6835万令吉),至于其他的外币资产为20亿9180万美元(约89亿3198万令吉)。

国行指出,在未来12个月,政府预定的短期流出的外债将达到2亿7790万美元(约11亿8663万令吉)。

另外,截至4月杪,远期合约的空头头寸达191亿800万美元(约815亿9116万令吉),这也反映出金融体系管理马币流动性所作出的努力。

国行说,根据2006年4月开始采用的惯例,上述数据不包括未来12个月的预期外币流入所增长的应收利息以及预期动用的贷款,总额22亿3580万美元(约95亿4686万令吉)。

文告说,唯一的外币资产预定短期流出净额,是1年内到期的政府担保外债,达1亿3000万美元(约5亿5510万令吉)。

"大马国际储备金没有任何附带期权的外币,以及任何金融机构、银行、国际组织及其他央行所给予的未使用及无条件的信贷便利。

剩1仙又如何? 柏华嘉重组照跑
广告

"国行也没进行兑换马币的期权外汇买卖。"(马新社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2017.05.31

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #158 on: June 09, 2017, 01:32:33 PM »




Highlight
BNM net FX short positions peaking and manageable, says Maybank IB
Wong Ee Lin
/
theedgemarkets.com

June 09, 2017 12:35 pm MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (June 9): The return of positive net total foreign flows in the past two months contributed to the faster pace of increase in the external reserves in April to May 2017 of +US$2.6 billion versus +US$0.8 billion in 1Q17.

The positive net total foreign flows should ease concerns over the build-up in Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)’s “net short positions in forwards and futures of foreign currencies, vis-à-vis domestic currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps)” which jumped from US$2.8 billion in October 2016 to US$19.1 billion in April 2017.

“The surge in central bank’s net FX short positions reflects BNM’s borrowing US dollar from the banking system by swapping with ringgit to meet the demand for foreign currencies — namely US dollar — due to the earlier capital outflows rather than via depletion of external reserves to manage the market liquidity,” said Maybank IB Research in a report dated June 8.

“According to BNM, its current FX swaps position is around 20% of the official external reserves, which is in line with the positions in other regional central banks,” said Maybank IB.

Maybank IB opined reversal of net portfolio capital outflows into net inflows over the past two months, suggest buildup in BNM’s net FX short positions is peaking.

Furthermore, Maybank IB noted total amount consists of US$3.2 billion in positions up to 1 month, US$6.8 billion in positions over 1 month to 3 months, and US$9.1 billion in positions over 3 months to 12 months, pointing to BNM rolling over the positions into longer maturity.

This indicates the central bank is currently focusing on building up the external reserves and will gradually unwind net short FX positions, depending on how much and how fast the external reserves rise, Maybank IB said.

“From BNM’s standpoint, the domestic bond market is now more resilient, as speculative positions have mostly exited the market and there is a larger composition of stable and longer term investors, which should help in the process of unwinding its FX swap positions,” Maybank IB added.

Reported last Wednesday, BNM international reserves rose 0.7% to US$98 billion (RM433.3 billion) as at May 31, 2017, from US$97.3 billion (RM430.5 billion) as at May 15, 2017.

The central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Of the reserves, foreign currency made up the biggest portion at US$91.6 billion.

As at May 31, 2017, total assets were RM460.54 billion, while currency in circulation rose 1.4% to RM100.47 billion, from RM99.06 billion as at May 15, 2017, the central bank said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #159 on: June 22, 2017, 03:34:43 PM »




 

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Bank Negara's foreign reserves up 0.7% to US$98.7b as at June 15, 2017
Samantha Ho
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June 22, 2017 15:00 pm MYT
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KUALA LUMPUR (June 22): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves rose 0.7% to US$98.7 billion (RM436.1 billion) as at June 15, 2017, from US$98 billion (RM433.3 billion) as at May 31, 2017.

In a statement today, the central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.2 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #160 on: June 23, 2017, 06:29:05 AM »




 
主页 > 财经 > 国内 > 经济学家:避免长期陷负利率 国行升息几率高
经济学家:避免长期陷负利率
国行升息几率高
1063点看 2017年6月22日
 

(吉隆坡22日讯)我国已连续第5个月处于实际负利率状态,达证券经济学家认为,在通胀压力高涨的情况下,国家银行有升息的空间,否则,我国将长期陷入负利率的窘境。


最新公布的5月消费者物价指数(CPI,也称通胀率),按年扬3.9%,按月比较,涨势稍微放缓,也低于市场预期。

大马投行经济学家认为,通胀数据没有太大的惊喜,就如预期般,压力仍来自成本方面。此外,令吉兑美元贬值,也将持续敲响通胀的门。

所谓实际负利率,是指银行存款利率低于通胀率。

年初迄今,通胀率年扬4.3%。我国物价持续走高,在3月份更攀至5.1%的高峰,是8年来的高点。

未来,通胀率料呈现稳定的迹象,估计下半年会按年涨3.5%。

全年而言,达证券经济学家仍维持3.9%的通胀率预测,因为在明年通胀率逐步正常化之前,还需经历一轮交通指数走高的情形。

“犹如我们早前所提及的,在通胀压力增加的情况下,国行有空间升息。否则,我们很有可能会见证一段长时间的实际负利率情况。”

全年经济保持强韧

经济学家点出,负利率情况将诱使市场发生投机的情况。

另一个可以支撑其观点的是,首季激增5.6%的国内生产总值表现,且全年的经济将保持强韧。

大马投行经济学家,将国行会在下半年升息25个基点的几率,从早前的30%,进一步调高至45%。

“虽然通胀数据有稍微喘口气,但未来数月的通胀率仍将持稳。”

其中,成本压力依旧是罪魁祸首,然而,随着经济活动恢复生气,需求拉动的通胀情况也即将会发生。

除了首季经济增长标青,企业净利表现佳,以及稳定的劳动市场都是推动通胀率的因素之一。


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #161 on: July 06, 2017, 06:57:04 AM »




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Home > Business > Business News
Wednesday, 5 July 2017 | MYT 2:45 PM
Will Bank Negara hike interest rates?

BY FINTAN NG

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/09/22/07/19/bank-negara2.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=B20FF2C777A06E5D46E68DDF71662A41A6C0FCE5

 
THERE is a view emerging out there that Bank Negara Malaysia will have to raise the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) by the end of the year or early next year.

This view is premised on a strengthening economy, which usually means higher inflation as wages grow, unemployment comes down and consumption picks up. Earlier in the year, the market consensus was for no change in the OPR this year.

The last time the OPR was tweaked was almost exactly a year ago, when policymakers decided on a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3%. Then, the economy was weaker.

The monetary policy committee meets on July 13 but the market consensus is for no-change in the OPR as it would be too soon for the data to show a firmer trend.

But Malaysia’s economy has definitely strengthened, growing 5.6% in the first quarter and there is every indication that the economy will continue to pick up on exports growth and business spending.

Indeed, in the coming months, policymakers will change their view on the sources of inflation. The prevalent view is that inflation has been cost-push driven but as private consumption rises, inflation could very well be demand-pull driven.

Another factor that will pursuade policymakers to look into a rate hike is the weak ringgit. Don’t be fooled by all the headlines and salutary reports in recent weeks of the ringgit being one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, because compared to last year, its still well above 4 to the US dollar.

The direction that the US Federal Reserve takes on further rate hikes as well as the start of the reduction of the US Treasury’s balance sheet used to boost the economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis will also be factors that will have an influence on Malaysian policymakers.

The Fed has raised the federal funds rate twice this year. The benchmark US interest rate now stands at between 1% and 1.25% after another 25-basis point hike last month. There could be two more hikes coming, which mean another 50 basis points.

Another two rate hikes will mean better interest rates for those invested in US dollars while reducing the US$4.5 trillion balance sheet essentially mean the Fed will not buy more US bonds, which mean lower bond prices and rising yields.

These rate hikes will put more pressure on the ringgit and a weak ringgit has contributed to core inflation, which has picked up in May to 2.6% on a year-on-year basis. This has gone above Bank Negara’s target of 2.3% to 2.5%. Core inflation excludes food and fuel prices.

Inflation pervasiveness has also become more apparent as tracked by the central bank’s measures of everyday price inflation and perceived price inflation, which captures price increases in frequently purchased items (60% of the consumer price index basket), show a persistent trend higher than headline inflation, which includes food and fuel prices.

A hike in the OPR will help ease pressure off the ringgit and this will certainly help with inflation. The major factor holding back a rate hike is the risk to growth.

With Malaysia’s high household debt, there is the fear that a rate hike could crimp growth especially in private consumption, which has been a mainstay of domestic demand given tepid spending from businesses until recently.

However, the economy should be able to weather a 25-basis point hike if growth stays resilient, wages rise, businesses continue to spend and jobs are created.

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy , Banking , overnight policy rate

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/05/will-bank-negara-hike-interest-rates/#V25ExWdAzctc0KUj.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #162 on: July 07, 2017, 04:04:07 PM »



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Bank Negara foreign reserves up 0.2% to US$98.9b as at June 30
Neily Syafiqah Eusoff
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July 07, 2017 15:36 pm MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (July 7): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves rose 0.2% to US$98.9 billion (RM424.8 billion) as at June 30 this year, from US$98.7 billion (RM436.1 billion) on June 15.

"In US dollar terms, the reserves continued to increase. However, in ringgit terms, it declined following stronger ringgit during the second quarter," said Bank Negara in a statement today.

The central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Foreign currency reserves made up the biggest part of the reserves, at US$92.5 billion.

The other components are International Monetary Fund reserves position, at US$800 million; special drawing rights (SDRs), at US$1.1 billion; gold, at US$1.5 billion; and other reserve assets, at US$3 billion.

As of June 30, the central bank's total assets were at RM451.04 billion, while currency in circulation was at RM105.31 billion.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #163 on: July 12, 2017, 02:15:40 PM »




ighlight
‘Low international reserves still a concern’
Supriya Surendran
/
The Edge Financial Daily

July 12, 2017 09:13 am MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 12, 2017.
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR: The depletion of Malaysia’s international reserves in the past few years, coupled with weak crude oil prices that impact the ringgit’s performance, continue to be a concern among investors, according to Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Bhd (StanChart).

“In the ranking of things, we would really like [international] reserves to be a little higher, [as] that would take away a lot of worries [among the investing fraternity].

“[But] we have seen foreign investment flows [into Malaysia] picking up and those flows, to some extent, [have] bolstered [the] reserves,” said the bank’s head of fixed income, currencies and commodities investment strategy Manpreet Singh Gill.

Though it has been two years since Bank Negara Malaysia’s international reserves fell below the US$100 billion (RM430 billion) mark, there have been positive signs of a trend reversal in the past six months. The central bank’s reserve level rose from a 13-month low of US$94.6 billion in December last year to US$98.9 billion as at June 30.

During the bank’s presentation of the “Global Market Outlook” for the second half of 2017 (2H17) yesterday, Manpreet also highlighted the bank would have had a more bullish view on the ringgit had it not been for falling commodity prices.

“I think what’s holding us back from being more bullish on the ringgit is weak commodity prices, in particular [crude] oil prices,” he said.

In its 2H17 outlook report, StanChart said it is less convinced that crude oil prices will end the year in the US$60 to US$65 per barrel range, but sees a 75% probability it will close the year higher than US$45 per barrel.

Nevertheless, Manpreet said the bank is “cautiously positive” on the ringgit. “I think what’s interesting about the ringgit is [in] two parts. The first part is the US dollar’s [strength], as Malaysia was faced with the challenge of a strengthening dollar. But with our view that the US dollar may actually soften a little, that’s actually taking away one big headwind for the ringgit

“The second part is the intrinsic ringgit factors — the ringgit is still as about as inexpensive as it has been since the Asian financial crisis, so it will take a lot of bad news to push the ringgit lower from here,” he said.

Manpreet added that he expects the ringgit to trade at rangebound levels — at about 4.2 to 4.3 against the greenback. As at press time yesterday, the ringgit was trading at 4.2975 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, StanChart is positive on the Malaysian equity market in 2H17.

“The Malaysian equity market should do well; it’s a great dividend-yielding market delivering one of the more sustainable yields compared to the Singapore [equity] market, another yield-oriented market.

“In terms of [Asian ex-Japan markets], we feel [the market with] the highest beta, [or] where the outlook is most positive, is [South] Korean equities — where we have seen significant technical breakouts and a rise in earnings expectations — and China,” said Manpreet.

The banking group is also more positive on bonds in 2H17, compared with 1H17.

“We have increased our allocations for bonds globally, with the biggest driver being US Treasury yields because they ultimately drive government bond yields around the region.

“We are a little less worried that US Treasury yields may rise a lot, and the fact we are a little less worried means we are more comfortable in looking for opportunities in bonds, [such as] emerging-market [government] bonds,” he said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #164 on: July 13, 2017, 03:15:54 PM »



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Bank Negara Malaysia maintains OPR at 3%
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July 13, 2017 15:00 pm MYT
 
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FLASH: Bank Negara Malaysia maintains OPR at 3%

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #165 on: July 14, 2017, 11:46:05 AM »




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Malaysia Insight: BNM may sustain stimulus until headwinds fade
Bloomberg
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Bloomberg

July 14, 2017 11:01 am MYT

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SINGAPORE (July 14): (Bloomberg Intelligence): Malaysia’s expansion has strengthened and the central bank is more confident about the future. Growth accelerated to 5.6% year on year in 1Q, underpinned by stronger consumption, investment, exports and government spending. This, and government measures, have stabilized the ringgit. Still, the outlook remains sufficiently vulnerable to require continued support from the central bank.

In Bloomberg Intelligence Economics’ view, Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to keep rates low, until oil prices stop falling and credit growth in China stops slowing.

Malaysia’s Growth Spurt May Fade

The central bank left its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3% on July 13, as predicted by all respondents in a Bloomberg survey. BNM said growth prospects were more favorable due to better-than-expected global demand. It continues to expect stronger growth in 2017, compared with last year and still anticipates a moderation in headline inflation in 2H. Core inflation is seen contained. BNM said it considers its policy stance to be accommodative, in support of growth.

Malaysia’s exports rebounded in 1H, but this may not be sustained in 2H. Slower credit growth in China, as it deleverages may be a significant headwind. Money supply growth for the M2 measure was 9.4% year on year in June, the lowest since at least 1997. China is Malaysia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 18.8% of shipments overseas last year.

Exports Appear Vulnerable in 2H

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency is less confident about rebalancing in oil markets. It said on July 13 that OPEC production is rising and it sees little evidence of a steady decline in stockpiles. If sustained, this would keep oil prices soft for longer. Brent crude oil, near US$47 per barrel currently, has fallen 16.6% year-to-date.

A combination of slower growth in Chinese demand and low oil prices would risk swinging Malaysia’s small current account surplus into deficit and renew downward pressure on the ringgit.

Tighter global liquidity as advanced-economy central banks unwind monetary policy support could also damp capital inflows.

Lower oil revenue for this oil producer and exporter might not just crimp exports and pressure the currency. It would give the government less scope to support domestic demand. Low oil prices would also likely have knock-on effects for the confidence of businesses and consumers. In April, Second Finance Minister Johari Abdul Ghani said oil near US$55, where it was trading at the time, would put Malaysia in a "comfortable" position.

Business Lending At Risk of Retreat

Household spending has been robust, rising 6.6% year on year, after inflation in 1Q from 6.1% in 4Q. But this too may not persist to such degree in 2H. Higher agricultural output, after last year’s drought has boosted farm incomes, which can be sustained. But consumption has also been supported by government measures to increase disposable income. Without further stimulus, this impact will fade. The higher minimum wage, for example, took effect last July.

All in all, the balance of risks points to a steady central bank monetary policy. Growth is a lot stronger than a year ago.

This makes another rate cut unlikely. At the same time, tightening while growth is still relatively benign and the risks daunting is also unlikely.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #166 on: July 18, 2017, 06:43:21 AM »




Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 17 July 2017 | MYT 8:04 PM
BNM likely to revise OPR on stronger economic data - RAM Ratings
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/07/01/06/56/bank-negara-malaysia.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=557CE2413EA3BAB01058CC26AD306611CD3AEEE5
RAM Ratings foresees Bank Negara raising the OPR by 25 basis points towards the end of the year.
RAM Ratings foresees Bank Negara raising the OPR by 25 basis points towards the end of the year.
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s stronger-than-expected growth for exports, manufacturing output, sales, as well as greater inflationary pressure, could give BNM more impetus to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) this year, said RAM Ratings Services Bhd.

“We have revised our gross domestic product growth projection to 5.2% for 2017, with an inflation rate of 3.8%; this incorporates a potential 25-basis point hike towards the end of the year,” the rating agency said in a statement.

Meanwhile, on bonds, RAM said foreign investors reduced their holdings of Malaysian bonds by 0.6% in June, following two consecutive months of strong net foreign fund inflows.

Foreign holdings declined RM1.3bil after the June rate hike and there were more concrete plans to pare down the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet, despite inflation remaining below expectation.

As a result, the ringgit weakened against the US dollar in the second half of June, against expectations of strengthening US Treasury yields and some risk aversion.

On a global update, the more hawkish stance of major central banks such as the Fed and the European Central Bank would likely be key to investors in the second half of 2017 in terms of portfolio allocations.

“That said, some inertia in tightening monetary policy may be apparent after years of easy money.

"This uncertainty over the timing of policy changes may lead to continued market volatility,” it added. - Bernama
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/17/bnm-likely-to-revise-opr-on-stronger-economic-data---ram-ratings/#y0SbQVB5BWXyR4yJ.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #167 on: July 21, 2017, 04:14:52 PM »




Update
Bank Negara's external reserves up 0.2% to US$99.1b as at July 14, 2017
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July 21, 2017 15:01 pm MYT
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KUALA LUMPUR (July 21): The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) rose by 0.2% to US$99.1 billion (RM425.4 billion) as at July 14, 2017 from US$98.9 billion (RM424.8 billion) as at June 30, 2017.

In a statement today, the central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Foreign currency reserves comprised the biggest portion of reserves at US$92.4 billion, up from US$92.3 billion on June 30.

Its IMF reserves position remained at US$800 million, while special drawing rights (SDRs) were at US$1.1 billion. Gold also stayed at US$1.5 billion of the international reserves as at July 14, but other reserve assets rose to US$3.3 billion from US$3 billion on June 30.

Total assets as at July 14 stood at RM453.82 billion, up from RM436.08 billion on June 30, according to BNM's data.

Currency in circulation amounted to RM100.47 million, the central bank said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #168 on: August 02, 2017, 09:37:58 AM »




 0 1 0 1
Malaysian bond recovery under threat as reserve level questioned
Bloomberg | August 2, 2017
The lowest reserve adequacy in Asia is sapping demand for the securities just as they are recovering from the longest selloff by foreign investors in eight years.
bnm_ringgit_chart_600_new

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s bonds are coming back in favour but the respite may be brief. The level of the nation’s foreign reserves is coming under scrutiny as investors brace for outflows from emerging markets.
The lowest reserve adequacy in Asia is sapping demand for the securities just as they are recovering from the longest selloff by foreign investors in eight years. Relatively high foreign ownership and an acceleration in inflation from last year are adding to risks as major central banks sound increasingly hawkish on interest rates.
“There has been a rebound of flows into Malaysia bonds after huge redemptions late last year,” said Desmond Soon, head of investment management for Asia ex-Japan at Western Asset Management Co. in Singapore, which oversees US$433 billion. “But considering Malaysia’s FX reserve coverage, the number remains vulnerable to a significant change in global risk appetite.”
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Malaysia’s reserves are sufficient to finance 6.5 months of imports, according to data compiled by Commerzbank AG using a 12-month moving average. That compares with 9.9 months for Indonesia, 10.8 for Thailand, 11.2 months for the Philippines, and 21.6 for China.
Bank Negara Malaysia’s reserves amount to just 1.1 times the amount of short-term debt on issue, Commerzbank estimates. The corresponding ratio is 2.8 for Indonesia, 3.7 for the Philippines and 4.3 for India.
While a concern to investors, the ratios don’t faze Malaysian policymakers.
“Malaysia’s level of foreign-exchange reserves is adequate for our stage of economic development, domestic market structure and external position,” Bank Negara Governor Muhammad Ibrahim said in a speech last week in Kuala Lumpur. “Malaysia’s reserves are well within the adequacy range, placing us in a comfortable position relative to regional peers and fulfilling recognized global standards.”
Bank Negara’s international reserves are sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports, according to the central bank’s calculations, higher than Commerzbank’s estimate.

Malaysia’s reserves have dropped for four straight years, declining to US$93.3 billion in September 2015, from as high as US$141.4 billion in May 2013. They climbed back to US$99.1 billion as of July 14 as the ringgit strengthened, according to central bank data.
“Foreign-exchange reserves are still low relative to the near term risk of outflows,” said Julian Wee, a senior market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “This weak foreign-exchange reserves position will play a greater role during strong dollar periods, wherein Bank Negara has to be far more cautious about intervening to slow a fall in the ringgit, thereby leading to underperformance.”
Global funds have started to return to Malaysian bonds after cutting holdings for five straight months through March, the longest streak since December 2008. They bought RM15 billion ($3.5 billion) during April and May, after selling RM59 billion in the five months through March.
Malaysia’s 10-year bond yields have dropped almost half a percentage point to 4% since reaching an eight-year high of 4.46% in November. The ringgit has strengthened to 4.2775 per dollar from as weak as 4.5002 in January.
Pioneer Investment Management Ltd. said in June it’s cautiously positive on ringgit bonds, while Schroder Investment Management Ltd. likes the ringgit due to Malaysia’s positive macroeconomic conditions.
Positive Picture

While Commerzbank points out the weakness in Malaysia’s reserves, it sees positives in the nation’s economic fundamentals.
“A stabilization in FX reserves, the currency, and volatility should all bode well for sentiment toward Malaysian government bonds,” said Charlie Lay, an analyst at Commerzbank in Singapore. “Healthy domestic demand and firm exports should also reinforce the positive macro picture.”
Sentiment toward Malaysian bonds may also be affected by the ongoing scandal over state investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd. and the central bank’s forecast for inflation to accelerate this year.
1MDB failed to make two payments totalling more than US$628 million to Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund as part of a settlement over a debt dispute, according to a filing to the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Inflation surged to an eight-year high in March amid a recovery in energy prices. The central bank said that month it expects consumer-price gains to average 3% to 4% this year, up from 2.1% in 2016.
Accelerating inflation, coupled with strengthening domestic demand, has prompted Natixis SA and United Overseas Bank Ltd. to flag that an interest-rate increase may be on the way. Bank Negara has kept its benchmark at 3% since July 2016 and said last month headline inflation is expected to moderate in the second half of the year.
“Reserve adequacy is toward the low end, which is one factor the market latches onto in periods of broader weakness,” said Wilfred Wee, a fund manager at Investec Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore, which oversaw US$124 billion as at end-June. “If Bank Negara can stabilize the ringgit and inflation, and inflation expectations moderate further, the appeal of Malaysia government bonds can improve.”

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #169 on: August 03, 2017, 06:44:16 AM »




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外匯储备偏低 外资回流债市曇花一现
財经 最后更新 2017年08月2日 19时33分
外匯储备偏低 外资回流债市曇花一现

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(吉隆坡2日讯)基于资金流出新兴市场的隱忧仍存,导致国家的外匯储备金备受考验,外资虽然看似重返本地债市,专家却相信,乐观情况可能只是曇花一现。

根据《彭博社》报导,在面对外资8年以来规模最大的撤资潮后,大马目前是亚洲国家中外匯储备適足率最低的国家,专家表示,这將无形中打击外资对大马债市的投资意愿。

全球主要央行將陆续升息、外资在大马债市拥有较高的持股比重和通货膨胀率在去年开始攀升,也增加了投资大马债市的风险。

新加坡西方资產管理亚洲投资管理部门主管德斯蒙德接受《彭博社》访问时表示,儘管外资目前已开始回流大马债市,但由于全球风险偏好的转变,大马的外匯储备规模仍然相当脆弱。

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据德国商业银行数据,我国过去12个月平均外匯储备,仅可融资6.5个月的进口,相比印尼的9.9个月、泰国的10.8个月、菲律宾的11.2个月和中国的21.6个月,大马的外匯储备处在偏低水平。

另外,该银行也认为,我国储备金只等于短期外债的1.1倍,也逊于印尼的2.8倍、菲律宾的3.7倍和印度的4.3倍。

德斯蒙德表示,「虽然投资者关心该数据,但未能引起央行对此的关注。」

国家银行总裁拿督依布拉欣认为,大马目前外匯储备足以应对当前的经济发展阶段、国內市场机构和国外的影响。

根据国行数据,大马外匯储备能够融资7.9个月的进口,较德国商业银行预估的6.5个月更长,国行也认为,大马比其他国家来的稳健,并能够符合国际储备標准。

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #170 on: August 07, 2017, 04:28:53 PM »




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Bank Negara int'l reserves up 0.3% to US$99.4b as at July 31
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August 07, 2017 15:00 pm MYT
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KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 7): The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) grew 0.3% to US$99.4 billion (equivalent to RM427 billion) as at July 31 this year, from US$99.1 billion on July 14.

The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt, the central bank said in a statement this afternoon.

Foreign currency reserves comprised the biggest portion of reserves at US$93 billion, up from US$92.4 billion on July 14.

Its IMF reserves position remained at US$800 million, while special drawing rights (SDRs) were at US$1.1 billion. Gold also stayed at US$1.5 billion of the international reserves, but other reserve assets slid to US$3 billion from US$3.3 billion on July 14.

Total assets as at July 31 stood at RM453.85 billion, up from RM453.82 billion on June 14, according to BNM's data.

Currency in circulation amounted to RM100.76 billion, the central bank said

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #171 on: August 22, 2017, 03:45:22 PM »





Update
Bank Negara Malaysia international reserves at US$100.4b as at Aug 15
Sulhi Azman
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theedgemarkets.com

August 22, 2017 15:14 pm MYT

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KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 22): Bank Negara Malaysia said its international reserves amounted to US$100.4 billion (RM431 billion) as at Aug 15 this year.

"The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt," Bank Negara said in a statement today.

Bank Negara's latest international reserves figure rose from US$99.4 billion as at July 31 this year.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #172 on: August 22, 2017, 04:35:57 PM »
very big this time! :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #173 on: September 06, 2017, 06:56:38 PM »




Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Wednesday, 6 September 2017 | MYT 3:00 PM
Bank Negara foreign reserves continue to rise
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/06/07/07/08/forex-bnm.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=8E9754FD4DC9EF76BFE0327D07D8F23AEC082A32

 
KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves continued to increase and the latest was US$100.5bil as at Aug 30, 2017 – which was the highest since July 2015.

BNM said on Wednesday the reserves had increased by US$100mil from the US$100.40bil on Aug 15.

“The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.8 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt,” it said.

In ringgit terms, the reserves had increased by RM700mil to RM431.70bil at Aug 30 from  RM431.0bil two week earlier.



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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/06/bank-negara-foreign-reserves-continue-to-rise/#50EsHvSp8cF3jmUd.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #174 on: September 07, 2017, 03:49:13 PM »




Bank Negara Malaysia maintains OPR at 3.00%
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September 07, 2017 15:01 pm MYT
 
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Flash: Bank Negara Malaysia maintains OPR at 3.00%

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #175 on: September 20, 2017, 08:38:43 AM »





穆迪:大马外匯储备金亚洲最弱
財经 最后更新 2017年09月19日 21时52分
穆迪:大马外匯储备金亚洲最弱

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(吉隆坡19日讯)国际信贷评级机构穆迪(Moody's)认为,在亚洲各国当中,大马外匯储备金数额最少,一旦美国继续升息,引发资金外流,我国將遭受资金剧烈流动的巨大衝击。

根据穆迪的统计,我国今年到期的外债加上国內的非居民存款达到外匯储备金的151%比例,水平偏高。

相比之下,菲律宾只有27%,是本区域內抵御资金流动衝击的能力最强的国家之一。

穆迪驻新加坡的主权债务分析员克里斯蒂安迪格斯曼表示,储备金对比外债的覆盖率偏低,是大马的一个重大风险。「即便把其它利好因素,如大马的强劲出口和匯率弹性考虑在內,仍然无法抵销外匯储备金偏低的风险。」

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基于美国从2013年开始酝酿收紧货幣政策,新兴市场掀起资金外流狂潮,大马的外匯储备金在2015年跌破1000亿美元,备受全球投资者关注。今年8月,外匯储备金才重回1000亿美元水平以上。

今年稳健回升

迪格斯曼坦承,年初至今,大马的外匯储备金稳健回升,是一项正面的发展。

无论如何,穆迪指出,若按照国际货幣基金组织(IMF)的標准,大马需要约1200亿美元的外匯储备金,才算足够。

该机构对大马进行压力测试,假设我国的经常账盈余跌至零水平,金融市场面对资金外流,我国的外匯储备金將跌至700亿美元。

不过,国家银行总裁拿督莫哈末依布拉欣7月时曾表示,大马的外匯储备金足以支持现阶段的经济发展、国內市场结构与外匯交易需求。受到外匯储备金节节復甦带动,令吉兑美元匯率也从年初至今回升逾7%。

外匯储备金並不是衡量一个国家还债能力的唯一指標。儘管我国的外匯储备金对外债比例低于菲律宾,但穆迪给予我国的主权债务评级为「A3」,与另一个新兴市场大国墨西哥持平,並高于菲律宾的「Baa2」评级。

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #176 on: September 20, 2017, 11:10:28 AM »




Umno man hails Nor Yakcop’s exit from Khazanah Nasional
Robin Augustin | September 20, 2017
Puad Zarkashi says Khazanah Nasional's credibility will be affected if former Bank Negara Malaysia assistant governor stays on.
Puad-Zakarshi

PETALING JAYA: Umno supreme council member Mohd Puad Zarkashi has welcomed Nor Mohamed Yakcop’s resignation from Khazanah Nasional, describing the move as “appropriate”.
Yesterday, Nor Mohamed announced his resignation as deputy chairman of Khazanah, two weeks after he took full responsibility for the forex losses at Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) about 25 years ago.
Speaking to FMT, Puad, who had previously criticised Nor Mohamed over the scandal, said the former BNM assistant governor had made the right decision to resign from Khazanah.
“This is about transparency and credibility because the forex losses were linked to him.”
Puad said Khazanah’s credibility could be affected if Nor Mohamed stayed on and that he had done the right thing by leaving rather than waiting for the Khazanah board to decide his fate.
“I hope his bold decision will encourage him to be more open and reveal what really happened in relation to the forex scandal which resulted in massive losses.”


Last week, Puad, in criticising Nor Mohamed, questioned if he was trying to avoid implicating Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was prime minister then and who made him a special economic adviser in 2000, a post he held until the end of 2003.
Puad, the Special Affairs Department (Jasa) director general also said it appeared as if Nor Mohamed wanted to be the scapegoat for the scandal.
On Aug 6, Nor Mohamed told a royal commission of inquiry (RCI) that there was no denying that forex losses occurred or that he was accountable for it.
He also told the five-man tribunal that he did not discuss the forex losses, said to be in the region of RM30.5 billion, with either Mahathir or the two finance ministers during the period of 1986 and 1993.
Nor Mohamed, 70, served on the Khazanah board of directors for 15 years, being the longest-serving board member and the only deputy chairman in Khazanah’s 23-year history.
Following his resignation yesterday, Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is Khazanah chairman, thanked Nor Mohamed for his contribution to the sovereign wealth fund, particularly his work on the 10-year transformation programme for government-linked companies (GLC), led by the Putrajaya Committee on GLC High Performance.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #177 on: September 21, 2017, 04:39:42 PM »




BNM foreign reserves up US$300m at Sept 15
CORPORATE NEWS
Thursday, 21 Sep 2017

3:03 PM MYT
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/09/20/00/30/bnm.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=66A8BEBA447468251016E8D33F525708953247B8


KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves rose US$300mil to US$100.80bil as at Sept 15, 2017 from two weeks earlier.

BNM said on Thursday the reserves had increased from US$100.5bil on Aug 30 and were sufficient to finance 7.7 months of retained imports and was 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

In ringgit terms, the reserves had increased by RM1.10bil to RM432.80bil from RM431.70bil.
 
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/21/bnm-foreign-reserves-up-us$300m-at-sept-15/#Lv4BsQKx7qCeXpjq.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #178 on: October 20, 2017, 04:09:31 PM »




MALAYSIACORPORATE
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Bank Negara int'l reserves up 0.2% to US$101.4b as at Oct 13
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theedgemarkets.com

October 20, 2017 15:00 pm MYT

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KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 20): Bank Negara Malaysia says its international reserves grew 0.2% to US$101.4 billion as at Oct 13 from US$101.2 billion as at Sept 29.

In ringgit terms, the central bank said it is equivalent to RM428.7 billion, as opposed to RM427.7 billion two weeks ago.

"The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.5 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt," Bank Negara said in a statement today.

Foreign currency reserves comprised the biggest portion of reserves at US$94.7 billion, while IMF reserves position was at US$800 million.

Special drawing rights (SDRs) were at US$1.2 billion, gold was at US$1.5 billion, while other reserve assets came in at US$3.2 billion.

Total assets as at Oct 13 stood at RM454.38 billion, according to Bank Negara's data, as opposed to RM457.50 billion as at Sept 29.

Currency in circulation amounted to RM101.99 billion

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #179 on: November 07, 2017, 04:44:33 PM »




MALAYSIACORPORATE
TOP STORIESPOLITICS & GOVERNMENT
Highlight
BNM international reserves up 0.1% at US$101.5b as at Oct 31
Sangeetha Amarthalingam
/
theedgemarkets.com

November 07, 2017 15:03 pm MYT

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KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 7): Bank Negara Malaysia says its international reserves grew 0.1% to US$101.5 billion as at Oct 31, from US$101.4 billion as at Oct 13. In ringgit terms, the central bank said it is equivalent to RM428.9 billion, as opposed to RM428.7 billion two weeks ago.

"The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.6 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt," Bank Negara said in a statement today.

Foreign currency reserves comprised the biggest portion of reserves at US$95 billion, while IMF reserves position was at US$800 million.

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Special drawing rights (SDRs) were at US$1.2 billion, gold was at US$1.5 billion, while other reserve assets came in at US$3 billion.

Total assets as at Oct 31 stood at RM454.67 billion, according to Bank Negara's data, as opposed to RM454.38 billion as at Oct 13.

Currency in circulation amounted to RM100.51 billion.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #180 on: November 10, 2017, 06:48:28 AM »




財经 最后更新 2017年11月9日 19时14分
维持隔夜政策利率 国行暗示明年升息

78分享
(吉隆坡9日讯)国家银行货幣政策委员会(MPC)今日宣布,维持隔夜政策利率(OPR)在3%不变。国行也表示,基于外围及国內宏观经济强稳的形式,因此,可能考虑检討持当前货幣政策的宽鬆程度,这项声明被市场解读为,国行接下来將有升息的打算。

国行货幣政策委员会在今日的2017年最后一次会议后,发表的货幣政策声明中指出,全球经济继续增长,各地区经济增长变得更稳定及步伐一致。

此外,全球贸易显著改善,先进经济体的经济疲软状况正在好转。至于亚洲经济,则受到持续的国內活动和外围强劲需求带动。同时,金融市场近期也相对平静。

国行表示,展望2018年,全球经济预期持续增长。儘管主要经济体的地缘政治风险未解除,但整体来说经济前景依旧乐观。

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大马方面,国行指出,我国经济变得更为稳定,国內外领域皆持续取得强劲增长。当中,外围对国內经济带来的强劲溢出效应,包括產能投资活动、薪资提高和聘请更多的员工,均拉动大马经济表现。

国行认为,內需在2018年依旧是带动经济增长的火车头,其中,私人消费领域將是最大的成长动力,由收入和整体劳动市场不断改善所带动。而投资活动则受到基础设施项目,以及製造业及服务业更高的资本投资支撑。



9月通胀4.3%

同时,出口也会为我国经济带来额外的推动力。总体来说,大马经济將在2018年维持强劲。

另一方面,本地通货膨胀率主要受全球油价走势牵动。因此,隨著全球原油供应中断推高油价,大马9月份通胀率也走高至4.3%。2017年全年通胀率料处于预测范围的高位。

步入2018年,由于全球成本因素的影响预期减弱,大马通胀率料缓和增长。无论如何,通胀率走势將取决于高度波动的国际原油价格。而核心通胀率將由强稳的內需支撑。

此外,国內金融市场一直保持弹性。令吉匯率走高,也更好地反映经济基本面。同时,银行体系游资依旧充裕,金融机构继续在强劲的资本及资金缓衝环境下营运。私人领域融资贷款亦维持增长,以支撑我国的经济活动。

以目前的利率水平而言,国行仍维持宽鬆的货幣政策立场。而隨著全球及国內宏观经济持续强稳,国行可能会检討当前的货幣政策,以確保大马经济持续增长。

野村证券经济学家指出,国行在声明中显然对成长前景更具信心,也淡化通胀近期走高的趋势,並称可能检討货幣政策的宽鬆幅度,让市场看作是2018年將升息的铺排。

虽然野村证券维持2018年隔夜政策利率在3%的预期,但也指出,若金融失衡的风险加深,国行最终仍需逐步收紧政策。

另外,国行货幣政策委员会也在这次会议上敲定了2018年货幣政策委员会会议的时间表。


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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #181 on: November 18, 2017, 10:34:54 AM »




 最后更新 2017年11月17日 19时37分
经济加速 国行调整利率伸缩空间大

98分享
(吉隆坡17日讯)国行总裁拿督莫哈末依布拉欣表示,鉴于大马经济加速成长,国行在调整隔夜政策利率(OPR)上,將有更大的伸缩空间。

依布拉欣在媒体匯报会上表示,大马国內生產总值(GDP)今年来取得强劲增长,首9个月的GDP成长5.9%,进一步提高了国行在议息时的灵活度和伸缩空间。

值得一提的是,国行在10月份的货幣政策委员会(MPC)会议上,宣佈维持OPR在3%,同时,基于国內外宏观经济走势趋强,因此暗示明年或將升息。

询及OPR未来走势时,依布拉欣仅表示,明年1月的议息会议上便有答案!

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受到经济成长標青的提振,令吉兑美元匯率今日也一度触及4.16水平,创下自去年11月以来新高。年初至今,令吉亦走强了7.28%。截至今天下午5时,令吉匯率报4.1637令吉兑1美元。

依布拉欣说,「全球主要央行开始升息,国內外经济也取得正面成长,只要大马通货膨胀率符合预期和金融体系稳定,国行在利率决策上便有伸缩空间。」

另一方面,儘管近期的汽油价格大幅上涨,但依布拉欣指出,我国今年全年的通胀率相信仍会介于早前预测的3%至4%,但料落在预测区间的高端。

此外,询及由于通胀飆高导致我国年初至今皆处在负利率水平,他认为,我国短期內处在负利率水平的影响不大,亦不是新鲜事,因为在2009年时,我国也曾经歷长达1年半的负利率时段,只不过当时的家债水平没有目前高。

令吉波动性减缓

询及令吉走势,依布拉欣认为,令吉在上2个季度表现不俗,国內令吉的流通率也大有改善,目前令吉走势已开始反映大马的基本面。

「经过去年一连串的措施,如限制无本金交割远期外匯(NDF)交易和要求出口商將把75%的出口收入兑换成令吉,令吉的波动性已明显减少。」

他称,令吉未来的走势则胥视国家的政策和原產品价格走势。

除此之外,依布拉欣也针对联昌国际(CIMB,1023)一批储存著备份数据的磁带,在运输过程中丟失发表声明指,国行已要求联昌国际委任独立稽查团队,以调查磁带被丟失的原因和是否违反了国行制定的准则,国行预计,该调查结果將在近期內出炉。

同时,他说,国行至今已冻结了674个涉及金钱游戏的银行户头,同时也在网站上將405家公司列入黑名单。

「国行亦已指示国內金融机构,若发现疑似涉及金钱游戏的户头,便需关闭该户头以进行调查。」

另外,依布拉欣也表示,由于外来直接投资(FDI)带来的经济效益逐渐减少,因此国行也將尝试调整FDI框架,包括重新探討给予FDI的各种奖掖,并把僱用大批外劳公司的津贴调降,以將资源专注在鼓励发展能提高我国竞爭力和为经济增值的领域。

国行的最新季报也披露,国內房市仍处在不平衡状態,將对整体经济带来不利的影响,尤其在高档產业、办公楼和购物广场。不过,依布拉欣相信,鉴于国內银行在批准该上述產业贷款时,都非常谨慎审核,因此国行目前仍不会祭出任何產业新政策。

他也透露,国行將在12月推出关于加密货幣(cryptocurrency)的新指南

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #182 on: November 18, 2017, 05:23:02 PM »




SO CAN BANK NEGARA REALLY RAISE INTEREST RATES ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD? WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE RINGGIT IF THEY DON’T, WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO PROPERTY BUBBLE IF THEY DO? KUALA LUMPUR – The imbalances in the property market pose significant risks to the overall economy in the event of a shock, said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) Governor Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim. He said Malaysia has a record high unsold residential properties of about 130,690 units until the first quarter this year, mainly for houses priced above RM250,000, while the vacancy rate for office space is expected to be at 32% in 2021. With about 140 malls entering the market in key states by 2021, he said this would exacerbate the oversupply and potentially becoming more severe than during the Asian Financial Crisis (1997). According to the International Monetary Fund, historically housing booms have been followed by busts about 40% of the time, which is associated with longer economic downturns and larger output losses compared to the equity market. Given that they are imbalances in both residential and commercial property segments, BNM in its report said this is a source of concerns as the property sector has linkages to more than 120 industries, collectively accounting for 10% of Gross Domestic Product and employing 1.4 million Malaysians. Muhammad said the central bank had raised this issue to banking institutions and the exposure of the financial institutions in this sector was still at prudent level but property oversupply could impact other sectors. He said borrowers continued to have access to home financing, especially first-time home buyers. Housing loan approval rate stood above 70%, while the rejection rate remained below a four-year average at 23.3%, he said, adding that financing for speculative house purchases remained muted. In the first nine months of this year, RM121.6 billion of new housing loans were approved by banks, benefiting close to 300,000 borrowers. Of this, 60% were channelled for the purchase of houses priced below RM500,000. He said housing loans continued to grow at a sustained pace of 8.8% this year from 11% last year. On outstanding loans, about 71% were for the purchase of houses priced more than RM500,000 by first-time house buyers, he added.  — Bernama

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #183 on: November 20, 2017, 09:11:01 AM »





‘Brace for rate hikes next year’
Chester Tay & Supriya Surendran
/
The Edge Financial Daily

November 20, 2017 08:41 am +08

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on November 20, 2017.
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KUALA LUMPUR: As the Malaysian economy put its foot on the gas pedal in the third quarter of the year, the strong growth has given the central bank more flexibility to adjust interest rates. If this indication represents Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) starting a rate rise cycle, a key question is how high will they go?

Most economists have pencilled in two rate hikes in 2018.

UOB Malaysia senior vice-president of global economics and market research Julia Goh expects a 25 basis points (bps) overnight policy rate (OPR) hike next year, but said the odds of a second hike are high given Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) for the third quarter of 2017 (3Q17) last Friday.

The economy grew 5.8% y-o-y in 2Q17.

“We do not rule out the possibility of two rate hikes next year, provided growth prospects remain strong at least within the 5% to 5.5% range and demand-side inflation pressures creep higher,” she said in a note to clients last Friday.

When contacted, Goh said measures announced during Budget 2018, such as personal income tax cuts, the 1Malaysia People’s Aid and payments for the civil servants and retirees could result in a potential increase in disposable income of RM15.5 billion, that could increase private consumption by 0.6%.

“This provides continuous support for consumer spending even after one of the key stimulus measures announced last year expires, that is, when the Employees Provident Fund contribution rate normalises [back to 11% employee contribution from the optional 8% granted in recalibrated Budget 2016] at the start of next year,” she told The Edge Financial Daily.

Oxford Economics lead Asia economist Sian Fenner opined that while a second rate hike by BNM is not absolute, the first rate rise is imminent.

“We think that BNM is going to start normalising interest rates, following its recent monetary policy meeting where there was definitely a shift in its tone. This is broadly on the back of an optimistic outlook both in the domestic and external environment,” she told The Edge Financial Daily.

Fenner sees the central bank raising its benchmark interest rate 25bps in 1Q18.

“At the moment, we don’t think a second rate hike is off the table. We could see one later next year, but that would be more economic data determined — inflationary pressures coming through, a solid labour market, etc — that would definitely push for two rate hikes,” she said.

“Our view is that BNM could take a more gradual approach to normalising the interest rate,” she added.

Malaysians are already grappling with a high cost of living, evidenced by inflation numbers that came in at 4.3% in September from 3.7% in August, due to rising fuel prices. A rate rise will spell some better news for savers, but would lift the national debt service, which already stood among the highest in Asia in terms of household debt at 85.6 % of GDP as at the first half of 2017.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank chief economist Alan Tan, who expects the OPR to be increased by 25bps towards the middle of 2018, is of the view that a rate hike is unlikely to have a significant impact on consumer spending.

“A 25bps hike in a way is a form of normalising the interest rate from a low level of 3%. We do not see that as having a significant impact on consumer spending.

“[Likewise,] we believe a 25bps hike will not change business sentiment. BNM is examining the current degree of accommodation of [monetary policy] and that’s also why we believe that the central bank would not hike the OPR anytime soon as it would want to assess where the economy is heading in the first half of next year. The decision on rate hike would be very much [economic] data dependent, especially in the first half of 2018,” said Tan.

“The market should not see this (the rate hike) as a form of significant tightening on monetary policy going forward as we feel BNM is still in favour of an accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth,” he added.

Barclays plc senior regional economist Rahul Bajoria, who sees one rate hike from BNM in 1Q18 — an expectation the firm has had since 2017, concurred.

“A 25bps rate hike will have limited impact on consumer spending. Household debt is an ongoing issue, but it has not risen as a percentage of GDP in recent years, which means it is contained,” he told The Edge Financial Daily.

“[As for businesses,] I think [they] have seen decent profitability growth, and a small rate hike would not make a dent to their funding needs or debt servicing,” he added.

Deutsche Bank Singapore managing director and head of Asia macro strategy Sameer Goel is looking at one rate hike from BNM next year, most likely after the general election.

“The headline inflation is high and the [3Q17] GDP growth is strong. Narrowing slack in the real economy poses upside risks to core inflation, which has so far been benign. Hence, it would be appropriate for the central bank to begin tightening its monetary policy,” he said.

MIDF Research chief economist Dr Kamaruddin Mohd Nor opined that all the ingredients for a rate hike next year are in place.

“A broad-based uptick in global growth and favourable domestic macroeconomic conditions are the main reasons behind the anticipated move, if any.

“The unwinding of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is benign to the potential move. The recent rally in crude oil prices drove up headline inflation in recent months. Core inflation is expected to follow through with domestic demand starting to kick in, thus the hawkish tone by BNM,” he said.

On the local bond market, Aberdeen Asset Management research analyst (macro) Lee Jin Yang estimated that at least one rate hike has been priced in within the market.

“Should there be more hawkish rhetoric or strong economic data that increases expectations of a second hike, bond yield will increase accordingly,” he said.

The next monetary policy committee meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan 25 next year. BNM has left interest rates unchanged since a surprise reduction by 25bps to 3% in July last year.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #184 on: November 20, 2017, 04:28:41 PM »



Bank Negara cautions banks on rushing for deposits year end
BANKING
Monday, 20 Nov 2017

1:53 PM MYT
image: https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/11/10/03/01/banks218jan2017.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=6EE62B1D9E95A92C198155DD4C0423361D895446


KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has cautioned banks not to rush and compete for deposits in an effort to show a good loan-to-deposit (LDR) ratio, which is very evident towards every end of the year.

Governor Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim, describing it as “disruptive behaviour”, said this was especially for corporates, whereby their short-term deposit shifting would push up rates and create significant distortions.

“This is damaging to all. Borrowing costs will rise. All will be impacted. Corporates will also suffer in the end, through higher longer term borrowing costs because of these unnecessary biddings,” he said in his keynote address last Friday at the Financial Markets Association, Malaysia annual dinner entitled "Of Perception, Sentiment and Reality".

Muhammad said banks should also not be fixated on the LDR ratio  – which is a simplistic indicator –  and it cannot provide an accurate representation of evolving bank balance sheets and funding strategies.

“We need to rely on other important indicators. As we start to transition into Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), this ratio together with Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), are the more reflective indicators of banks’ funding profile and liquidity positions,” he said.

Banks would be given sufficient time to adjust before implementation of the NSFR.

“We therefore like to suggest to the banking community to plan wisely and avoid rushing to comply or exceed the NSFR requirement, as this will create the same disruptive cycle caused by LDR-fixation.

“Nobody gains from any disruption. It does not bode well for our financial market. Therefore, we need to behave accordingly and contribute in creating orderly market conditions,” he said.

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/20/bank-negara-cautions-banks-on-rushing-for-deposits-year-end/#yDgym6RzQ8LugWII.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #185 on: November 22, 2017, 05:57:28 PM »




BNM international reserves at RM429b
BANKING
Wednesday, 22 Nov 2017

3:01 PM MYT
image: https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/11/09/07/13/bank-negara-malaysia.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=22EC424A5DA365D3B1ED36E24095265E0066E2B8


KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia’s international reserves amounted to US$101.5bil (RM429bil) as at Nov 15, unchanged from the amount recorded on Oct 31.

"The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.5 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt," BNM said in statement.

The main components of the international reserves were foreign currency reserves (US$95bil), International Monetary Fund reserves position (US$800mil), Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) (US$1.2bil), gold (US$1.5bil) and other reserve assets (US$3bil).
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/22/bnm-internatioanl-reserves-at-rm429b/#RuHRBX1MjeryYy30.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #186 on: November 27, 2017, 08:57:23 AM »



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MALAYSIACORPORATE
Economic Focus
Strong signs of Bank Negara rate hikes in 2018,says AmBank Research
Surin Murugiah
/
theedgemarkets.com

November 27, 2017 07:54 am +08

-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 27): AmBank Research said Malaysia headline inflation in October rose 3.7% as both the food and non-food prices grew at a slower pace by 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 3.4% y-o-y respectively while fuel price climbed 20.5% y-o-y.

In a note today, AmBank group chief economist and head of research Anthony Dass said that meanwhile, core inflation remained stable at 2.3% y-o-y in October and is expected to inch up in the coming months fuelled by a stronger gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.9% average for three quarters and hike in private sector wages which were up 7.3% y-o-y in 3Q2017 for the second consecutive quarter after hovering around 4% in the previous 5 quarters.

“We project inflation to stay around 4.0% for 2017 and 2.5% – 3.0% for 2018.

“With the economy being in negative returns since January 2017, added with strong GDP growth and healthy private wages, we expect Bank Negara Malaysia to institute its first rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) in January 2018 and another 25bps hike most likely in 3Q2018, which should normalise the OPR rate to 3.5%,” he said.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #187 on: November 28, 2017, 11:21:02 AM »



Bank Negara deputy governor to quit today
Updated 6 minutes ago · Published on 28 Nov 2017 10:58AM · 0 comments
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Bank Negara deputy governor to quit today
Bank Negara Malaysia deputy governor Dr Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh will resign today. – BNM pic, November 28, 2017.

BANK Negara Malaysia deputy governor Dr Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh is set to resign today, a little over a year after his re-appointment to the post, the Star reports.

Citing sources, the daily said Sukudhew had “opted for early retirement”.

With his resignation, the central bank will have only one deputy governor – Shaik Abdul Rasheed Abdul Ghaffour.

Section 14 of the Central Bank of Malaysia Act 2009, provides for up to three deputy governors.


Section 18 of act states that the finance minister may appoint a deputy governor if the post becomes vacant before the expiry of term.

Sukudhew was first appointed to the post on April 16, 2013 for a three-year term, and was re-appointed on April 16 last year for another three years. He term was supposed to end on April 15, 2019.

Bank Negara’s website said he oversaw the bank’s monetary and economics sector, as well as several departments under the organisational development sector.

Sukudhew joined the bank in 1986, and holds a PhD in monetary and international economics from Vanderbilt University. – November 28, 2017.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #188 on: November 29, 2017, 02:38:00 PM »



Jessica Chew is new Bank Negara deputy governor
BANKING
Tuesday, 28 Nov 2017

2:44 PM MYT
image: https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/11/28/06/47/jessica-chew1-bnm.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=92D49DBB022281339BE24856120474D86002BA6A

Bank Negara Malaysia's assistant governor, Jessica Chew Cheng Lian has been appointed as deputy governor for a three-year term effective Jan 1, 2018.
Bank Negara Malaysia's assistant governor, Jessica Chew Cheng Lian has been appointed as deputy governor for a three-year term effective Jan 1, 2018.

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia's assistant governor, Jessica Chew Cheng Lian, has been appointed deputy governor for a three-year term effective Jan 1, 2018.

The central bank said on Tuesday the Minister of Finance has approved Chew's appointment.

She assumes the position of deputy governor following the retirement of Dr Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh as deputy governor on Dec 31, 2017.

As deputy governor, Chew will be responsible for financial sector regulation and development including payment systems, organisational development sector and centralised shared services.

Chew is currently the assistant governor responsible for the development of regulations and policies in the banking and insurance sectors focusing on efficiency, innovation, market institutions and structures, development finance and talent development.

She is also responsible for payment systems development and regulation and oversight of the money services business.

Chew is a member of Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Stability Committee.

She is the Chairman of the Finance Accreditation Agency (FAA), a member of the Board of Directors of the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency (AKPK) and Credit Guarantee Corporation Malaysia Bhd, a member of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors’ (IAIS) Technical Committee and is also an advisor to the Malaysian Accounting Standards Board (MASB).

In line with the appointment of Chew as deputy governor on Jan 1, 2018, effective on the same date, deputy governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour will oversee the monetary and economics sector, supervision sector, investment and operations sector as well as LINK and BNM Offices, Finance and Legal departments.
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Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/28/jessica-chew-is-new-deputy-bank-negara-governor/#pw4hp28ZDHGsVwM8.99

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #189 on: December 07, 2017, 04:25:38 PM »



Highlight
BNM's international reserves up 0.39% at US$101.9b as at Nov 30, 2017
theedgemarkets.com
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theedgemarkets.com

December 07, 2017 15:00 pm +08

-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 7): Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) international reserves rose 0.39% to US$101.9 billion (RM430.4 billion) as at Nov 30, compared with US$101.5 billion (RM429 billion) as at Nov 15.

In a statement today, the central bank said the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.5 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Foreign currency reserves comprised the biggest portion of reserves at US$95.4 billion, while IMF reserves position was at US$800 million.

Special drawing rights were at US$1.2 billion, gold was at US$1.5 billion, while other reserve assets came in at US$3 billion.

Total assets as at Nov 30 were higher at RM460.92 billion, according to BNM's data, as opposed to RM457.23 billion as at Nov 15.

Currency in circulation amounted to RM102.26 billion.

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Re: Bank Negara Reserve and BLR
« Reply #190 on: July 11, 2018, 04:38:16 PM »



財经 最后更新 2018年07月11日 15时01分

国行宣布 利率维持3.25%
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(吉隆坡11日讯)国行在今日的货幣政策会议中宣布,维持隔夜政策利率(OPR)在3.25%。

早前市场人士普遍预测,隔夜政策利率(OPR)將维持,接下来国行可能会一反全球升息趋势,降息以扶持大马经济,预计令吉短期內或將进一步走弱。

渣打银行东盟及南亚区首席经济学家李韦虢则指出,国行维持OPR之余,也会保持中和立场。

此前,《路透社》向10名经济学家进行调查的结果显示,他们一致认为国行本週將按兵不动,维持OPR在3.25%。