Author Topic: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)  (Read 83841 times)

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #100 on: December 11, 2015, 05:02:39 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #101 on: December 11, 2015, 09:47:03 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #102 on: December 11, 2015, 12:08:49 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #105 on: December 11, 2015, 08:45:03 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #106 on: December 11, 2015, 09:25:59 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #107 on: December 14, 2015, 05:40:29 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #108 on: December 14, 2015, 06:22:49 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #109 on: December 14, 2015, 06:57:39 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #110 on: December 14, 2015, 09:35:48 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #111 on: December 15, 2015, 04:56:17 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #112 on: December 15, 2015, 02:20:36 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #113 on: December 15, 2015, 02:22:48 PM »

Latest: Gold nears 6-year low; Markets eye Fed
Kalyeena Makortoff   | @kalyeena


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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #114 on: December 15, 2015, 09:48:59 PM »



加息恐伤及黄金 金价明年或跌一成

加息恐伤及黄金 金价明年或跌一成
金价到2016年底可能跌至每安士955美元。

(巴黎15日讯)法国兴业银行表示,联储局政策行动恐將伤及黄金。

法国兴业银行全球资產配置主管阿兰博科布萨(Alain Bokobza)表示,如果联储局本周上调利率並在明年再加息3次,那么金价到2016年底可能跌至每安士955美元。这一预期意味著金价或將下跌约10%,触及2009年9月以来最低水平。

隨著美国决策者准备进行约10年来的首次加息,美元获得提振而黄金吸引力隨之减弱,金价迈向连续第3年年度下跌。

交易员目前预计,美国联邦公开市场委员会加息的概率为76%。

博科布萨称,儘管联储局於12月16日加息的预期已普遍反映在市场中,但隨著利率进一步上行,未来一年金价仍將走低。

博科布萨表示,「我们更加关注2016年的整体状况,联储局將会继续收紧政策,美国经济將呈现相当好的景象。但这並不构成金价上涨的理由,金价將成为政策收紧的受害者。」

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #115 on: December 16, 2015, 04:46:43 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #116 on: December 17, 2015, 05:00:52 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #117 on: December 17, 2015, 01:16:00 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #118 on: December 17, 2015, 07:07:50 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #119 on: December 17, 2015, 09:51:58 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #120 on: December 18, 2015, 05:00:49 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #121 on: December 18, 2015, 06:18:07 PM »



Gold & The Federal Funds Rate
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2015 20:05 -0500

Bear Market CPI Fail Federal Reserve fixed Leading Economic Indicators Monetary Policy Money Supply Rate of Change Real Interest Rates Reality Recession recovery SocGen


 
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Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

Wrong Assumptions

It is widely assumed that the gold price must decline when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates. An example is given by this recent article on Bloomberg, which informs us that SocGen believes “gold will be a casualty of Federal Reserve policy”. Never mind that the assumption that the Fed will now be able to simply embark on a “normal” rate hike cycle is in our opinion utterly absurd. It will only do that if the inflation genie unexpectedly gets out of the bottle, and is guaranteed to remain “behind the curve” if that happens (more on this further below).

 

gold-and-dollar

 

 

It seems logical enough: gold has no yield, so if competing investment assets such as bonds or savings deposits do offer a yield, gold will presumably be exchanged for those. There is only a slight problem with this idea. The simple assumption “Fed rate hikes equal a falling gold price” is not supported by even a shred of empirical evidence. On the contrary, all that is revealed by the empirical record in this context is that there seems to be absolutely no discernible correlation between gold and FF rate. If anything, gold and the FF rate exhibit a positive correlation rather more frequently than a negative one!

Let us look at exhibit one – the 1970s:

 

1-1970s

So the gold price is falling when the Fed hikes rates? Not in the 10 years depicted above, when it did the exact opposite. It rose by 2,350% over the decade, and the vast bulk of the increase happened while the FF rate rose sharply. Gold did however plunge by almost 50% in a mid cycle correction from late 1974 to mid 1976 – while the FF rate actually went down – click to enlarge.

 

So the guessers at SocGen might actually have improved their statistical odds a bit if they had said “now that the Fed is hiking rates, gold prices should rise”. The reality is though that even if they knew perfectly well what the Fed was going to do next year – which they don’t, as not even the Fed itself knows – they could not possibly make a correct gold price forecast based on that information.

Let us look at a few more historical data – here is the gold price and the FF rate from 2001 to 2015. The best interpretation one can come up with on the basis of the raw data is that there simply exists no fixed correlation:

 

2-2000ds

Gold and the FF rate since 2001: What the gold price ends up doing seems to have very little to do with the federal funds rate – click to enlarge.

 

It Simply Isn’t That Simple

Now, if you have taken the time to read the article at Bloomberg we linked to above in its entirety, you will have noticed that it actually offers no analysis whatsoever. The SocGen analyst quoted by Bloomberg is simply parroting the current consensus.

In August of 2011, the same guy would probably have told us why gold was certain to go higher over the next year (this is beside the fact that Wall Street loves to hate gold – after all, a rising gold price most of the time coincides with bad business for WS).

The way markets – and the economy for that matter – appear to be analyzed most of the time is as follows: a ruler is applied to the most recent tred in the data, so as to be able to extrapolate a target. Then stuff is made up to provide “reasons” for the forecast. This is quite an easy exercise, because at any given time, statistical data can be used to support just about any forecast.

This is why one first needs a correct theory – theory will help to constrain one’s forecasts (certain things are simply not possible) and can be used to properly interpret historical data. The data are practically useless by themselves. Naturally even a reasonably good grasp of theory will by no means ensure that one will be able to make a correct forecast – especially not in terms of timing. Considerable uncertainties will attend any attempt at prediction.

However, we can be absolutely certain that 99% of mainstream financial and economic analysts will fail to correctly forecast turning points in prevailing trends. The analysts quoted by Bloomberg will never tell us when the trend is going to change.

Once the trend has changed, they will however begin to “explain” the new trend to us at some point and forecast its continuation – after it has been underway for about three years. In the case of gold it may take a bit longer – last time they realized it was in an uptrend, the trend was about to celebrate its 10th birthday :)

Obviously, things are not as simple as these analysts are making them out to be.

 

The Fundamental Drivers of Gold

We have recently made an updated list of the most important fundamental drivers of the gold price – not necessarily in order of their importance. Moreover, many of these drivers are obviously not independent of each other. Here is the list:

real interest rates, as determined by the difference in market-derived inflation expectations and nominal interest rates
the trend in credit spreads
the steepness of the yield curve
the trend of the US dollar
faith in the banking system’s solvency
faith in the monetary authority
faith in government more generally (with a special focus on fiscal policy)
the trend in risk asset prices
the relative performance of financial stocks vs. the broad market
the rate of change in money supply growth
the demand for money and the desire to increase precautionary savings
the trend in economic confidence in general
the trend in commodity prices
 

Below we show a simple chart that serves as a quick explanation why the trend in the federal funds rate as such is not relevant to the gold price. It is “simple” in the sense that while it is connected with point one of the above list of fundamental gold price drivers, it doesn’t employ a proper calculation of real interest rates (which would involve deducting expected price inflation rates from nominal interest rates).

Instead we have merely calculated the real federal funds rate by deducting the annualized rate of change of CPI from the nominal FF rate. This has not only saved us a bit of time (since the proper calculation mentioned above involves more steps), but it also keeps the focus on the one interest rate the Fed actually controls.

 

3-Real FF rate and gold, LT-ann

The “real” federal funds rate vs. the gold price. This obviously provides a much better explanation than the simple (and completely wrong) formula “FF rate up/gold down, FF rate down/gold up” – click to enlarge.

 

If one looks at the above chart more closely – readers can easily zoom in and out of it by constructing their own version at the Fed’s FRED database (in order to illustrate the point, we will show a close-up of the 1970s period below though) – one can see that even the real FF rate is only part of the explanation, or rather, insufficient as an explanation of the gold price trend.

In particular once can see that there are considerable leads and lags involved. These partly reflect market expectations of future trends in the fundamental backdrop and partly the influence of the other gold price drivers listed above. In short, it is the totality of contingent circumstances that needs to be considered when attempting to forecast the future trend of the gold price.

One has to adopt a holistic view of the economy and try to make an educated guess of the future evolution of the fundamental backdrop – always keeping in mind that there is a limit with respect to what can be known about the future. After all, new information constantly emerges – the only true “constant” in the market economy is the fact that is is subject to unceasing change.

 

4-1970s real-a

A close-up of the real FF rate in the 1970s and the gold price reveals significant leads and lags in the negative correlation between these data series. These are based on market expectations as well as the other drivers of the gold price – click to enlarge.

 

Central Planning Quandary

We can conclude that it is simply incorrect that a rising federal funds rate “guarantees” further declines in the gold price. On the contrary, one could well argue that the decline in the gold price since 2011/12 very likely already more than fully discounts a period of rising rates.

One also needs to keep in mind that the Fed finds itself in quite a quandary. It has just begun to hike rates based on the trend in a lagging indicator of the economy (i.e., employment). At the same time, leading economic indicators are already indicating that a recession is probably fairly imminent. How likely is it that a true “rate hike cycle” will even happen?

If the Fed is correct that CPI statistics will soon show rising price inflation (which they may well, mainly due to base effects), it will be in an even bigger quandary. Any attempt to stay “ahead of the curve” will immediately lead to a dramatic implosion of the asset bubbles it has fostered with its ultra-loose monetary policy in recent years. The economy will be taken right down with them (actually, we believe it is even more likely that the economy will tank before the stock market does).

What one really needs to consider when thinking about the gold price is whether the idea that the economy is back to “business as usual” has any merit. The answer to this question is a clear and unequivocal no. Globally, the level of debt in the economy has increased by around 60% since the “great financial crisis” of 2008. In the US alone, the broad true money supply has grown by almost 115% since then (as of November 2015).

In spite, or rather because of these bubble-blowing efforts, the economy has produced the by far weakest recovery of the entire post WW2 period. Nota bene that this applies to the US economy, which has actually stood out as the best performing developed market economy in recent years. Meanwhile, all indications are that this weak recovery will soon succumb to another cyclical recession.

A recession could easily turn into a truly catastrophic bust if market confidence in the monetary authorities and the sustainability of the huge global debtberg evaporates – which will inevitably happen one of these days. What encore can the authorities offer when (not if) that happens?

Obviously, gold bulls have been wrong for the past four years and they may well be wrong for a while longer – we don’t think it is very likely, but obviously we cannot rule it out. Then again, prior to that the bears were wrong for 11 years running and gold is still up more than four-fold since late 1999/2000. How much has the S&P 500 gained since 2000? There is a good reason for this discrepancy, and that reason hasn’t disappeared – on the contrary.

 

Conclusion

Our assessment is that one simply cannot afford to ignore the fact that gold provides insurance against a potential blow-up of the global fiat money and debt bubble – regardless of its near to medium term price performance. Its performance is in any case only negative in USD terms – in no other currency can gold be deemed to be in a significant bear market. In fact, as we have recently pointed out, it is already making new all time highs in some fiat currencies.

Gold’s characteristic as a hedge/insurance against the consequences of policymaker machinations has recently gained additional importance in light of the fact that the echo bubble is clearly fraying at the edges already. Sooner or later there will be another full-blown crisis, at which point gold ownership will definitely be of great advantage. It is often said that the only certainties in life are death and taxes, but that is not quite true. There is another apodictic certainty: all booms driven by credit expansion will eventually blow up.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #122 on: December 19, 2015, 05:00:15 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #123 on: December 19, 2015, 06:51:28 AM »



Gold is still going to $5,000: Peter Schiff
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
10 Hours Ago
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Gold prices plunged more than 2 percent Thursday on the heels of the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike in nearly a decade. The commodity is now sitting near its lowest level since 2010, and with 8 ½ trading sessions left in 2015, the commodity is on track for its third straight year of losses — which would be the longest losing streak since 1998. But despite the horrid returns, one noted gold bug is sticking to his claims that the commodity could soon surge.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, Peter Schiff stood behind his previous call that gold will reach $5,000. "It's still going to go there," said Schiff when he was asked about his uber-bullish prediction. "I don't think there's that much downside [in gold] because I think most of this is already built into the price," he added.

Read MoreGold miners get crushed after the Fed raises rates
According to Schiff, regardless of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says, the U.S. economy is "rapidly going into a recession," which will inevitably trigger the central bank to retract the rate hike and reinstate gold as the safe haven asset it once was.

"I think symbolically just to show that they have confidence in the economy that they have no confidence in, [the Fed] raised rates to 25 basis points," said the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff has long believed the Fed would in fact never hike, but instead induce another round of quantitative easing.

"Normally when the Fed will raise rates it's when an economy is just getting going, so you have a lot of momentum in the economy and a lot of pent-up demand, but this recovery is already over," Schiff added.

He pointed to the disappointing November manufacturing number as proof that the economy is decelerating. "They're going quickly have to reverse course next year. They are going to bring rates into negative territory ... and they're going to do QE4 and it's going to be bigger than ever."

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #124 on: December 21, 2015, 08:15:54 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #125 on: December 21, 2015, 10:01:41 AM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #126 on: December 21, 2015, 05:24:59 PM »

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #127 on: December 21, 2015, 10:10:42 PM »
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Clearly shows Policy Mistake by Fed by raising interest rate when Economic not stabil... RIP Stock Markets...and later QE 4 coming!!

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #128 on: December 23, 2015, 04:59:40 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #129 on: December 29, 2015, 05:01:41 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #134 on: December 31, 2015, 05:01:21 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #135 on: December 31, 2015, 06:29:56 PM »



财经
黑金黃金不敵美金 2016年強勢回歸
  2015年12月31日
 (吉隆坡31日訊)黑金黃金不敵美金 !隨著美國進入升息周期,買美元已成為2016年匯市投資的一大主題,專家一致認為,美元將穩步上升,兌一籃子主要貨幣相對強勢。

 康宏投資研究部環球市場高級分析員葉澤恒向《經濟通通訊社》指出,2016年11月美國總統選舉,將為美國升息時間及步伐增添變數。


 他說,美國第3季經濟增長較預期佳,聯邦基金利率期貨顯示,明年3至4月加息機會大增,相信明年聯儲局加息兩至三次會較為合理。

 他認為,美元將開始反覆轉強,若美國勞動力市場及薪酬增長理想,將為美元升勢增添動力。整體而言,美元穩步上升,兌一籃子主要貨幣相對強勢,美元指數可上挑106。

 報導亦指出,美元自2011年6月展開上升周期,相信升幅可維持多兩年。當中德銀、巴克萊、高盛、法巴及瑞信一致認同2016年應買美元沽歐元。

 不過,美元指數週三(12月30日)溫和持平,連續兩個交易日反彈走高后今日上行動力放緩。

 “MoneyDJ理財網”報導,聯儲局近十年來首次加息,美元兌歐元在這個月料將創下4月份以來的最大月跌幅。

 Riverside Risk Advisors董事總經理林溫特(Jason Leinwand)指出:“美國和歐洲的政策背離,將在明年首季成為影響匯市走勢的強勁因素。”

 除了客觀的供需因素,明年美元走勢也將左右石油和黃金的“康復”進程。

金價或跌破1000美元

市場擔憂美元走強和聯儲局加息,削弱黃金吸引力,在12月數探每安士1050美元(約4511令吉)的6年低點,金價已從2015年1月22日最高的1307.98美元(約5619令吉)滑落超過17%。

 《聯合早報》報導,法國興業銀行全球資產配置負責人伯可扎(Alain Bokobza)指黃金將成為聯儲局加息的犧牲品,並預測隨著美國經濟持續轉好,金價在2016年會跌至955美元(約4103令吉)。

 顏聖充也預測聯儲局明年將加息4次,所以金價到明年底會跌至每安士950美元(約4081令吉)。

 然而,他還是看好黃金投資,因為在負實際利率的環境下仍表現出色,而且對美元起著對沖作用,也是一項避險工具。

 花旗銀行研究報告認為,儘管黃金近來有些失去光芒,但還未完全崩潰。

 明年金價雖然仍疲弱,但在歐元兌美元匯率下行、美元兌南非蘭特匯率上行的緩衝下,有望維持在每安士1000美元(約4296令吉)。

供需平衡油價上半年或回升

今年以來石油、黃金和美元交戰,石油和黃金跌得鼻青臉腫還不見谷底;未來油價仍胥視美元走勢,但上半年市場供需料達到平衡,有望見油價回升。

 新加坡《聯合早報》報導,布蘭特原油價格剛在12月21日創下每桶33.98美元(約146令吉)的11年來新低;今年整體來看,布蘭特和美國紐約西德州中質原油(簡稱WTI)的價格,都已從5月6日高峰的每桶62.58美元(約269令吉)和65.61美元(約282令吉),重挫超過40%。

 原油供應量過高、需求滑跌已是老生常談,但石油輸出國組織(OPEC)在最近一次會議還將日產量提升至3150萬桶,加上美國剛在12月正式解除長達40年原油出口禁令,導致油價跌跌不休。

 輝立期貨(Phillip Futures)分析師翁文敏說:“目前油價只是跌破支撐點一些,顯示可在這個水平找到支撐點。接下來要看美元走勢,如果美元走強,油價會進一步下挫。”

 展望明年,華僑銀行經濟師顏聖充說,美國能源信息署(EIA)估計美國原油日產量,會從今年的920萬桶減至明年的880萬桶。同時,在中國的帶動下,明年全球原油需求增幅會是6年來最大的。

 “雖然油價下挫,投機需求還在;加上明年經濟預計會好轉,可進一步推高需求。”

 花旗銀行(Citibank)報告認為,明年上半年油價會回調,因為預計非石油輸出國組織將減產;同時,原油需求會每天增加100萬桶。

 屆時,布蘭特平均可達每桶51美元(約219令吉),美國WTI則為每桶48美元(約206令吉)

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #136 on: December 31, 2015, 09:23:34 PM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #137 on: January 01, 2016, 05:02:34 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #138 on: January 03, 2016, 07:19:14 AM »



星洲网首頁 > 財經 > 即時國際財經
黃金年跌10%‧2016年會否破千成焦點
2016-01-02 14:51     

 
(中國‧上海2日訊)2015年,國際金價累計下跌10.5%,創下兩年來的最大跌幅。進入2016年,隨著美聯儲持續的加息進程,金價會否破千成為投資者關注的焦點。
數據顯示,整個2015年,黃金仍未擺脫2011年見頂回落以來的跌勢,國際金價僅在1月份階段性反彈,一度衝上每盎司1300美元,但隨即重拾跌勢,進入12月份一度跌破1050美元大關,創下6年來的新低,到2015年收關,紐約黃金期貨交易最活躍的2016年2月份黃金期價收報每盎司1060.2美元。
至此,2015年國際金價累計下跌10.5%,是黃金市場本輪下跌以來除2013年外的年度最大跌幅,此前的2013年,由於縮減寬鬆政策規模以及風險事件化解,國際金價年跌近30%,創下1982年以來的最大年跌幅。
不過作為傳統消費大國,中國市場以人民幣計價的黃金價格跌勢仍較為“溫和”。到2015年底,上海期貨交易所交易最活躍的黃金期貨合約收報每克226.05元,一年累計下跌6.5%。
“整個2015年,黃金市場可謂亮點寥寥。”上海一傢俬募負責人說,加息政策成為2015年金市的“緊箍咒”,每每美聯儲加息的預期增強,金價都下跌一個新的臺階。
尤其加息預期強化投資資金的撤離,黃金ETF基金再度減倉,全球最大的黃金ETF基金SPDR目前持有的黃金數量降至642.3噸,過去一年減持超過66噸,顯示出投資者至少連續第三年大幅撤離黃金市場。
“黃金ETF基金常被認為市場‘風向標’,現在這一信號顯示投資者的關注度依然疲軟。”混沌天成期貨分析師孫永剛表示,美聯儲加息“靴子”落定後,後期的重點將會回歸到各國的經濟狀況上,但是短期的弱勢依然難改。
事實上,不少外資投行的分析也認為,由於美聯儲可能繼續加息,黃金至少在2016年上半年仍將承受較大壓力。“目前市場上還有很多看空黃金的因素,這些因素在2016年上半年可能繼續存在。”上海中期分析師認為,比如可能繼續的加息,以及低通脹的市場環境,都使得黃金相對於其他有息資產缺乏吸引力。
包括荷蘭銀行、法興銀行等機構分析師都預計金價或難守住1000美元大關。“對於投資者而言,弱勢的環境下,抄底心態的投資仍需謹慎。”對此,中國黃金首席分析師蔣舒建議,在國內市場經歷2013年的“搶金潮”後,投資者不妨參考海外機構配置黃金的策略——每年將資產的一定比例投資於黃金,重在利用黃金與其他資產價格不同步的穩定資產組合作用,而非重視短期的價格漲跌收益。
(新華社)(星洲網)


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Offline penang_lim

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #139 on: January 03, 2016, 11:16:32 AM »
There are not many investments that could be profitable as bad times will be coming up on us soon.  Gold could be one of the assets that we can put our money in.

I understand that when USD is up, World gold price will drop. US feds are increasing their interest rate for 0.25% every quarter in 2016. What is your view on this impacting the price of Gold?

Secondly, the Gold price drop was not felt by local Malaysian as our Ringgit also drop in tandem from RM3.20 to RM4.40.  That could be the reason why locals did not feel the price reduction in gold price from jewelers and currently it is RM190/gram (jewellers) vs RM150/g (bank).

Do you see the improving Ringgit rates to USD will increase yield on Gold investment?
When the time comes, all investment knowledges should be passed to the younger generations for further enhancement.

Thx & Rgds;
Lim

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #140 on: January 05, 2016, 05:04:25 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #141 on: January 06, 2016, 04:58:50 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #142 on: January 06, 2016, 07:03:11 AM »



财经
黑天鵝引爆不安 金價或上看1300美元
  2016年1月05日
 (紐約5日訊)市場恐慌氣氛回籠,避險資產黃金價格一枝獨秀勁揚,分析師預言金價將在今年底前回彈至每安士1300美元(約5645令吉)。

 “鉅亨網”報導,金價週一(4日)一度上揚近2%至1080美元(約4689令吉),帶動金礦股紐蒙特礦業及Market Vectors金礦股指數基金上漲3%。


 曾任美國鑄幣廠廠長、現任Fortress Gold策略長艾梅指出,儘管不看好金價會飆漲至2011年高價,但不排除年底彈上1200美元(約5210令吉)至1300美元水平,金價上漲最大動力正是恐慌。

 他相信,上升動力來自全球經濟成長疲軟憂慮,加上金價維持低落已久,可能終于觸底。Hinsdale Associates投資主任比爾林治認為,黃金過去1年、2年表現差勁,恐怕沒有太多再下跌空間,小部分配置合理。

 “只要投資者持續擔憂中國經濟及西亞局勢,即使通貨膨脹低落、美聯儲升息等因素打壓金價,今年黃金價格仍有機會勁揚。”

 分析師亦認為,害怕中國經濟硬著陸有其道理,沙地與伊朗的情勢發展也難以預測,正因為不確定性籠罩,今年黃金表現有可能超越股市

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #143 on: January 07, 2016, 05:00:23 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #144 on: January 07, 2016, 06:03:57 PM »



LATEST NEWS
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Precious
Flight to safety sends gold to 9-wk high as stocks slump
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 7, 2016 : 3:31 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (Jan 7): Gold climbed above US$1,100 an ounce for the first time in nine weeks on Thursday as investors channelled money into the safe-haven metal amid a global stock market rout, worries over the Chinese economy and heightened geopolitical tensions.

China stocks fell 7% on Thursday after less than half an hour of trading, triggering a circuit breaker that suspended trading for the rest of the day.

China also guided the yuan sharply lower, deepening concerns about the economy and sending Asian shares to a three-month low.

Spot gold rose to a nine-week high of US$1,102.80 an ounce, before paring some gains to trade up 0.5% at US$1,099.32 by 0644 GMT. US gold futures also jumped for a fourth straight session to a nine-week high of US$1,102.50.

"Gold continued to climb with rising safe-haven demand amid the rebound in market volatility. Rising equities losses and surprising devaluation of the yuan are painting a positive picture for gold," ANZ said.

Gold, often seen as an alternative investment during times of geopolitical and financial uncertainty, benefited from the risk-averse sentiment in the market along with other haven assets such as the Japanese yen and US Treasuries.

"Gold is clearly re-establishing its role as a safe-haven. For as long as global stock markets — in particular China's — appear wobbly, gold is likely to attract a good bid," HSBC analyst James Steel said.

A raft of data releases from China in coming weeks is likely to show activity continuing to slow, adding to global concerns about the country's economic outlook for 2016.

The World Bank on Wednesday cut its global economic growth forecast for 2016, citing the weak performance of major emerging market economies.

Adding to market fears was North Korea's announcement it had successfully tested a powerful nuclear bomb on Wednesday, a move that escalated tensions in the Korean peninsula.

The news came just days after tensions flared in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran after Riyadh executed a Shi'ite cleric critical of Saudi policy.

Bullion was also supported by a softer dollar and the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meet. The minutes assured markets that the Fed would hike rates gradually this year.

Among other precious metals, silver and platinum rose, tracking gold.

Palladium, which as an autocatalyst metal is more exposed to economic weakness, slid to a near-5½-year low of US$501 an ounce before paring some losses to trade down 0.9%.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #145 on: January 08, 2016, 05:01:53 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #146 on: January 08, 2016, 06:44:35 AM »



Time for gold to glisten again as a safe haven?
Katy Barnato   | @KatyBarnato
11 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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As global equity markets tumble, analysts say it could be time for gold to shine once more as a safe buy in times of market turmoil.

Spot gold prices rose for a fifth successive day on Thursday, with bullion up about 4 percent since the start of the year. Prices topped $1,100 an ounce for the first time in nine weeks as the dollar fell after concerns over the Chinese economy hit global stocks.

"With equity markets tumbling, escalating tensions between a Saudi-led Sunni bloc against Iran, ongoing hostilities in Syria, North Korea testing what it claims to be a hydrogen bomb, the once precious yellow metal is looking perky," BBH strategists led by Marc Chandler said in a note on Thursday.


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Gold's strong performance amid broad risk-off sentiment could pique renewed investor interest, according to Joni Teves, a strategist at UBS.
"Gold is holding above the 50-day moving average in spite of a stronger dollar, helped by lower U.S. yields and physical demand," she noted in a report on Thursday.

Read MoreTrack metals prices live with CNBC
Gold's gains on Thursday came after Chinese stock indexes fell by around 7 percent on the day, triggering a circuit breaker for the second time this week that shut Shanghai and Shenzhen markets for the rest of the session. Asian and European stocks slumped on the news and Wall Street stocks are seen opening sharply lower.

During times of financial uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil, investors channel money into assets that benefit from risk-averse sentiment or act as a store of value. Whether gold can be considered a safe haven may be up for debate, however, gold prices have recently risen despite China's slowdown and escalated tensions in the Korean peninsula.

RBC Capital Markets forecasts gold will trade broadly between $1,050 and $1,200 this year, with an average price of $1,150 per ounce.

"As seen in 2004, we expect gold to lead a commodity recovery," Stephen Walker, head of global mining research at the group, said in a report on Thursday.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #147 on: January 09, 2016, 05:22:56 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #148 on: January 09, 2016, 08:28:36 AM »



Oil hasn’t been this cheap relative to gold since 1988

By William Watts
Published: Jan 8, 2016 12:11 p.m. ET

     54 
Gold/crude and S&P 500/crude ratios are getting extreme
Shutterstock
How many gold pieces?
Oil futures are trading at prices not seen in more than a decade. But they look even cheaper relative to gold and stocks.

Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, broke down the oil/gold and the oil/S&P 500 ratio in a Friday note. Needless to say, things look extreme.

Convergex
It takes 33.3 barrels of oil CLG6, -1.17%  to buy a troy ounce of gold GCG6, -0.33% ($1,109 divided by $33.27), Colas writes. That’s the highest ratio since 1988 based on month-end averages. It’s also well above the 30-year average of 17.0. That means oil would have to trade at almost double its current $33 level to get in step with its historical price relationship to gold.


Needless to say, the ratio has deviated “meaningfully” from the norm. So is a snapback imminent? Colas found that the ratio’s longest spike over 30 was in 1972-73 at 16 months. Oil was rallying hard back then, but it was outpaced by gold, which soared after U.S. President Richard Nixon took the country off the gold standard in 1971, Colas noted.

How about oil versus stocks? The current ratio of the S&P 500 SPX, -1.08%  to oil is 58.4 based on Thursday’s close (1,943 divided by $33.27). That’s well above the 30-year average of 29, Colas notes. The ratio hasn’t been this high since the 1990s tech bubble. In the two years running up to the tech bust, the index traded for more than 60 times a barrel of crude.


The standard deviation of the S&P 500/crude ratio is unusual but not yet truly “anomalous,” Colas writes. That would take a move to 66.2.

But the data does offer up an idea of when oil is cheap relative to stocks on a statistical basis, he noted, putting that level at $29 a barrel. Here’s how he gets there:

That is today’s S&P 500 close of 1943 divided by 66.2. Now, since stocks seem to want to slide on the same slope as crude oil at the moment, the real number will likely be more dynamic. But take the S&P 500, divide by 66, and that’s your “Must own it” level for crude. Things could get worse before they get better, of course, and there is historical precedence for a longish spell before things get back to normal. On the flip side, that precedent was a public mania for stocks akin to the Roaring 20s. We don’t seem to have that level of enthusiasm at the moment.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #149 on: January 09, 2016, 10:39:12 AM »



财经
國際金價一度漲破1100美元 國內金飾價每克起5令吉
  2016年1月07日
 (吉隆坡7日訊)金融市場邁入2016年面臨利空局面,股市重挫使黃金避險需求再度彰顯,國際金價一度漲破1100美元(約4860令吉),為近2個月來首見;國內金飾門市估價今日也調高5令吉,足金每克為195令吉。

 國內金鑽商多美(TOMEI,7230,主要板消費)今日稍晚宣佈,金飾門市估價從週五(8日)起,999足金每克再調高5令吉至195令吉,916金上調5令吉至185令吉。


 中國股市崩跌觸發“熔斷機制”拖累全球股市表現,突顯黃金的避險需求。紐約黃金今日盤中一度上探每安士1102.3美元(約4870令吉),為近9周來首見突破1100美元關卡。這是基于中國經濟前景欠佳拖累股市重摔,使投資者轉投具避險功能的金市。

人民幣疲弱助力

 截至下午7時半,黃金期貨價報1096.30美元(約4843.45令吉)。

 據“中央社”報導,澳盛銀行指主要股市動盪帶動金價持續上漲,股市走跌及人民幣疲弱都提供金價漲勢助力。

 匯豐銀行亦認為,在中國股市重挫拖累全球股市下,黃金避險功能的角色再度獲得確立。

 另外,瑞士信貸最新報告顯示,2016年金價表現料優于其他多數商品,因金礦供應估計會減少。今年全球金礦產量預計按年減4%,2015年至2018年期間的全球金礦產量將減少11.5%。

 瑞信上月預測,2016年平均金價為每安士1150美元(約5080令吉),最新的長期金價預測回到1200美元價位(約5302令吉)。

油價一度跌破33美元

市場擔憂加上原油產量逼近新高之際卻面對需求放緩,拖累布蘭特原油價格全日最低挫至每桶33.09美元(約146.19令吉),改寫下11年新低價位。截至大馬時間傍晚7時半,布蘭特原油每桶報價33.58美元(約148.36令吉)。

 紐約西德州中級原油期貨一度下滑至每桶32.77美元(約144.78令吉),刷新2009年以來最低水平;截至下午7時半每桶報價33.17美元(約146.55令吉)