Author Topic: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)  (Read 86405 times)

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #150 on: January 11, 2016, 07:35:05 AM »



社会  2016年01月10日
空壳公司诈骗 35人中招 高价收购黄金骗419万

2
(吉隆坡10日讯)诈骗集团设立空壳公司,向公眾谎称高价收购黄金,待黄金到手后便关闭办公室消声匿踪,成功骗走市价逾419万令吉的黄金,令35名受害者欲哭无泪。

自称国际公司的诈骗集团,在隆市霹雳路一带设立空壳公司后,通过手机短讯向公眾广传消息,宣称该公司以高于市面的价格,即每公克245令吉收购大量黄金。

不少拥有黄金的公眾受吸引下,主动上门欲卖出黄金,而该公司职员向卖家再三保证,能在指定日期领取银行匯票,不料待当事人较后再来办公室领取匯票时,却发现早已人去楼空。

其中一名现年58岁,现职医生的受害人指出,自己是于去年10月于手机短讯中得知有关消息,起初並不相信短讯內容,但基于该公司所开出的价钱十分诱人,因此让他决定卖出手上价值20万令吉的1公斤黄金,岂料却因此踏入不法之徒所设下的圈套,血本无归。

「我在去年10月卖出黄金后,该公司职员告诉我匯票须于今年1月16日才能领取,因公司必须先確认黄金的真偽,才会开出银行匯票予卖家。」

他表示,自己在较后確实收到了该公司的短讯,內容要求他前往办公室领取支票。不幸的是,当他抵达时,却发现办公室早已关闭。

吉隆坡商业罪案调查组主任依札尼助理总监指出,警方目前共接获逾35宗相关投报,涉及金额达到419万令吉,皆为受害者投诉陷入诈骗集团所设下的「收购黄金」圈套。目前警方已援引刑事法典第420条文(欺骗)展开调查

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #151 on: January 12, 2016, 04:59:03 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #155 on: January 15, 2016, 04:48:45 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #156 on: January 15, 2016, 07:10:35 AM »



Investors are still focused on selling rallies in gold






 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Following the recent bounce in early January after the global equity sell-off, gold has the potential to improve in its “safe-haven” appeal.

However, public confidence in the Federal Reserve’s intention of raising interest rates another four times this year will repeatedly limit how much gold can recover losses.

“We now see the area just above US$1,110 as major resistance and until we close above this level, the investor focus will still be geared towards selling the rallies rather than buying the dips,” said FXTM chief market analyst Jameel Ahmad in a note on Thursday.

He added that optimism over a possible recovery for gold is being bolstered by a sequence of increased geo-political concerns around the globe. These geo-political tensions is a background risk for investors to monitor. He highlighted that despite different geo-political tensions being ongoing for quite some time, that there has been no significant bounces in the valuation of the metal so far.


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Many investors were left stunned that despite the high uncertainties seen in the financial markets last year, gold suffered from very low buying interest and it was only the shock from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in early 2015 that increased safe-haven appetite.

The Fed’s intentions still holds the key behind gold trading. Although there is evidence of US economic momentum slowing down, job creation and consistent performances in the jobs market will increase confidence that the Fed will continue to move forward with their intentions to further increase US interest rates.

“This is disappointing news for anyone expecting a significant correction in the price of gold, and will basically limit the potential of any meaningful correction occurring at all,” said Jameel.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #157 on: January 16, 2016, 01:45:01 PM »



金价大涨
即时新闻  2016-01-16 09:37

 
(芝加哥16日讯)受美国股市下跌和较差经济数据等因素影响,纽约金价15日上涨。纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2月黄金期价15日比前一交易上涨17.1美元,收于每盎司1090.7美元,涨幅为1.59%。
全周来看,本周黄金期价下跌0.66%。
市场分析师认为,美国股市15日大跌,刺激投资者避险需求,帮助黄金期价大幅反弹;此外,当天伦敦股市、巴黎股市和德国法兰克福股市等欧洲主要股市也全部下跌,加剧市场避险需求。
15日,2016年3月交割的白银期货价格上涨14.8美分,收于每盎司13.896美元,涨幅为1.08%;4月交割的白金期货价格下跌7.3美元,收于每盎司827.5美元,跌幅为0.87%。
(新华社)

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #158 on: January 18, 2016, 12:21:14 PM »



Gold miners say output has peaked for this commodities cycle
James Wilson
11 Mins Ago
Financial Times
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Gold
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Gold output has peaked in this commodities cycle, according to mining industry leaders and analysts who say few big projects will reach the point of production amid falling prices.

The lack of new assets and declining output at existing mines is expected to curb gold supply, a glimmer of hope for surviving producers of the precious metal in an industry coming to terms with a rush of investment when prices were far higher.

Kelvin Dushnisky, president of Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner by annual output, said: "Falling grades and production levels, a lack of new discoveries, and extended project development timelines are bullish for the medium and long-term gold price outlook."

Gold bars in Vienna, Austria
Time for gold to glisten again as a safe haven?
Gold has been one of the commodities hit by the worst environment for mining in more than a decade. The price has declined more than 40 per cent from its 2011 peak, to a level where many gold miners struggle to recoup the costs of extraction.

This year some had expected gold to be under pressure from higher interest rates in the US, after the Federal Reserve began to tighten monetary policy last month.

However the gold price has risen 2.7 per cent so far in 2016, while stock markets around the world have tumbled. A controversial investment with a variety of competing theories for what determines the price, gold has provided comfort for investors who see the inert metal as a haven amid economic and political turmoil.

Miners hope limits to fresh gold supply will increase the chances of longer-term recovery.

"It is fruitless to try to predict demand dynamics for gold — I always put my faith in a recovery driven by reduction in supply and I believe we will see the first signs of impending recovery in the second half of this year," said Vitaly Nesis, chief executive of Polymetal, a UK-listed gold miner.

According to Thomson Reuters' GFMS metals research team, global production of gold is expected to fall 3 per cent this year, ending a seven-year period of rising output. GFMS expects gold mine production in 2015 to have risen 1 per cent to a record 3,155 tonnes.


The end of the gold bull market has prompted some miners to abandon growth projects, while ore grades across the industry have been falling as mines become depleted. The strike rate in finding significant deposits has also declined and most mining companies are struggling to attract investment to develop projects.

Mr Nesis said: "The fourth quarter last year was in my opinion the peak quarter for fresh global mine supply. ... I think supply will drop by 15 to 20 per cent over the next three to four years."

Nick Holland, chief executive of Gold Fields, a South Africa-based gold miner, said the industry had abandoned a previous fixation on rising output.

More from the Financial Times:

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"We were all talking about how production was going to increase every year. I think those days are probably gone ... you are not going to see massive production increases in the industry," Mr Holland said.

Ross Strachan, precious metals demand manager at GFMS, said the expected output fall this year would occur "as the contribution from projects that had been commissioned in previous years fades and the pipeline for new projects is limited given the current stressed financial climate."

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #159 on: January 19, 2016, 04:50:15 AM »



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« Reply #160 on: January 20, 2016, 04:44:45 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #161 on: January 21, 2016, 06:03:59 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #162 on: January 22, 2016, 04:44:30 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #163 on: January 22, 2016, 08:29:44 PM »


Gold retreats as equities rally, oil bounces 5%
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 22, 2016 : 7:32 PM MYT   
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LONDON (Jan 22): Gold fell on Friday as hints of more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank weighed on the euro and pushed European shares up 2.5%, denting appetite for alternative assets, while oil rebounded.

Benchmark Brent crude, whose slide to 12-year lows this week fuelled risk aversion, bounced 5.3% on Friday, as traders cashed in on record short positions.

That fed into better appetite for assets seen as higher risk, such as stocks, and weighed on gold.

Spot gold was down 0.5% at US$1,096.20 an ounce at 1030 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down 60 cents an ounce at US$1,097.60.

"Gold has eased off from its US$1,100 mark, as the president of the ECB spurred some appetite for riskier assets," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade, said.

"The US$1,100 mark is an important number with respect to any bull strength for the metal, and we need to stay above this number to fortify more demand."

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that fading growth and inflation prospects will force the bank to review its policy stance in March, a strong signal that more easing could be coming within months.

His comments lifted the dollar 0.4% against the euro and prompted a rally in beleaguered stock markets.

"With equity markets remaining bid and oil continuing to squeeze higher, gold is likely to come under pressure and could test towards US$1,085 in the short term," MKS said in a note.

Gold prices rallied to two-month highs at US$1,112.00 earlier this month, as oil prices plunged and heavy selling of equities in China spilled over into the global markets.

Gold benefited from the risk aversion among investors that sank stocks and crude oil, although slow physical demand from major consumers China and India kept a lid on price gains.

Premiums for gold prices in China rose only slightly this week and sellers in India offered discounts, amid poor demand.

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, rose another 1.8 tonnes on Thursday, data from the fund showed. That brought its inflow for the week to 4.2 tonnes.

Among other precious metals, platinum was up 0.9% at US$824.19 an ounce, after further selling dragged the metal to a fresh seven-year low of US$806.31 on Thursday.

Palladium was up 0.5% to US$500.50 an ounce and silver was up 0.5% at US$14.13

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #164 on: January 23, 2016, 04:55:49 AM »



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« Reply #168 on: January 29, 2016, 04:51:48 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #169 on: January 29, 2016, 08:27:03 AM »



黑天鹅效应 中俄央行狂买黄金避险
国际新闻 头条 国际  2016-01-29 07:24

 
(纽约28日讯)全球金融市场今年来剧烈动荡,使具有避险地位的黄金重获青睐,激励金价本月已涨逾5%,而且中国、俄罗斯等央行去年加码买进黄金,哈萨克银行更是连续39个月增持黄金。
国际金价今年来涨5.4%,分析员认为,金价已突破近来高点,市场也出现投资者加码的迹象,而美联储昨夜决定升息后的声明更为“鸽派”,成为黄金的利多。
世界黄金协会(WGC)资料显示,中国等央行去年持续增持黄金,净买进已成为全球市场的常态。
国际货币基金的资料显示,去年12月哈萨克央行再度增加黄金储备,至713万盎司,年增16%。
WGC也指出,去年第三季全球各央行提高黄金储备,至有史以来的第二新高。
澳洲国民银行(NAB)经济学家莱伊指出,去年进一步买进黄金的各国央行中,特别是以商品出口为主的新兴国家,都已面临随原物料价格下跌而来的货币贬值压力。
“最近中国经济放缓疑虑所引发的全球股市暴跌,更加深这种贬值压力,因此这些央行增持黄金,以分散部分汇率风险。”

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #170 on: January 30, 2016, 04:54:28 AM »



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« Reply #171 on: February 02, 2016, 04:57:02 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #172 on: February 02, 2016, 07:13:03 AM »




The End Of Plan A: The Big Reset & $8000 Gold
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/01/2016 16:00 -0500

B+ Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Central Banks Federal Reserve Real estate Reserve Currency


 
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Willem Middlekoop, author of The Big Reset – The War On Gold And The Financial Endgame, believes the current international monetary system has entered its last term and is up for a reset. Having predicted the collapse of the real estate market in 2006, (while Ben Bernanke didn't), Middlekoop asks (rhetorically) -can the global credit expansion 'experiment' from 2002 – 2008, which Bernanke completely underestimated, be compared to the global QE 'experiment' from 2008 – present? - the answer is worrisome. In the following must-see interview with Grant Williams, he shares his thoughts on the future of the global monetary system and why the revaluation of Gold is inevitable...

Middlekoop predicts the real estate crash in 2006... (ensure English Subtitles - Closed Captions - are enabled)



 

Bernanke did not... (stunning!!)



 

And now today, Middelkoop has some even more ominous concerns about the end of Plan A and where Plan B begins...

"By revaluing gold to a much higher level, to over $8000 an ounce, central bankers solve quite a lot of problems"
 
17:00 - "But we know Plan A - the current financial system - will end soon, we can't go on this way... so we need a monetary reset... and a revaluation of gold has helped central bankers in the past, such as Roosevelt in the 1930s. It would help to restore the balance sheet of The Federal Reserve."
 
But there are problems...
 
21:00 -  "It always ends in inflation.. certainly in 2016, we can expect more QE... and when that does not defeat deflation (driven by global over-indebtedness), further unorthodox measures will be taken (helicopter money).. and eventually a gold revaluation."
In this episode of the Gold series, Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodities Discovery Fund, dives into the history of monetary shifts and explores a scenario where the US dollar could be debunked as the global reserve currency. Willem discusses the possibility of gold being incorporated back into the monetary system, outlining the knock-on effects and the role of central banks in this scenario.

Grab a glass of wine (or something stronger) and enjoy...

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #173 on: February 03, 2016, 05:03:30 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #174 on: February 04, 2016, 04:53:32 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #175 on: February 04, 2016, 07:26:32 AM »


The surprising new case for gold
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
8 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Could low inflation — often considered a scourge on gold prices — actually be bullish for gold?

It is typically argued that rising inflation is necessary for gold prices to rise. The general idea is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars, and as each dollar becomes less valuable, it takes less of them to buy the same amount of gold. It is along these lines that gold's dramatic drop over the past few years have been pinned on ultra-low inflation and a strengthening U.S. dollar, particularly after much gold was bought amid the belief that inflation was set to soar as the dollar collapsed.

The idea that inflation is a necessary condition for higher gold prices may explain why gold sellers like Peter Schiff continue to make Rube-Goldberg-ian arguments for why inflation will rise, even as they simultaneously and somewhat contradictorily argue that the U.S. economy is in a recession (contradictory because most people would not pay higher prices for the same goods in a worse economy, which is why inflation and economic growth generally rise together).

However, there's another tantalizing possibility for gold bugs: Perhaps ultra-low inflation could actually send gold prices higher, through the mechanism of negative central bank policy rates.

In a continuing battle to combat long-stagnant inflation and economic growth, the Bank of Japan has cut interest rates to negative 0.1 percent. This follows similar moves by Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland.

Read MoreBank of Japan Governor Kuroda says can ease more, devise new tools

According to currency strategist Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management, "Negative interest rates have provided a fundamental reason to own gold. Just think about it: If you own gold and it stays stationary for a period, that's going to beat cash in Japan or Switzerland."

The basic idea is that gold and cash compete for a similar pool of investors' money. If the central banks implicitly or explicitly causes cash to yield negative returns, then gold will look better in comparison.

Now, gold also grants a negative return in practice, because it costs money to store safely. But it still becomes relatively more attractive.

That said, using math to explain what gold prices will do may a fool's errand. As Warren Buffett saliently argued in his 2011 shareholder letter, gold produces nothing and does not grow, leaving its value in the hands of other investors, who may or may not look more ###### on the yellow metal than its current holders.

For such a sentiment-driven asset, the mere specter of negative rates could have a profound effect.

"What people are going to understand is that gold provides a store of value," Phillip Streible said Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

Streible, a strategist with RJO Futures, predicts that the gold price will soon rise to $1,200 per troy ounce, which is about $70 above current levels

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #176 on: February 05, 2016, 04:46:56 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #178 on: February 09, 2016, 05:04:01 AM »



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #179 on: February 09, 2016, 08:08:16 AM »



Gold Tops $1200 For First Time Since June
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 14:08 -0500



 
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Barbarous Relic or safe haven of last resort? Since The Fed policy-error'd in December, gold is now up 22% over US equities...

Gold tops $1200 for the first ime since June 2015...



 

as the policy error gap widens further...



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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #180 on: February 09, 2016, 09:30:35 AM »
Gold Tops $1200 For First Time Since June........


The economic woes sparking turmoil for global equities is a boon for gold, with prices trading above $1,200 an ounce for the first time since June.

Spot bullion climbed as much as 2.3 percent, the biggest intraday gain in two months. Shares of precious-metal producers surged. The 30-company Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index of shares rose as much as 6.2 percent. Newmont Mining Corp. was the third-biggest gainer among stocks tracked by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.



Gold is the best asset in the Bloomberg Commodity Index this year, rising 13 percent. The metal is also benefiting from losses in global equity markets. U.S. shares retreated on Monday, joining a tumble in European and emerging-market stocks.
“Gold’s on the move today,” Phil Streible, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “A sharp selloff in equities is further causing a flight to quality and it shows you China is a lot shakier than last week.”
Bullion for immediate delivery added 1.9 percent to $1,195.40 an ounce at 2:51 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Prices touched $1,200.97, the highest since June 22.
A global slowdown has increased speculation that U.S. growth will cool enough to force Federal Reserve policy makers to wait longer before raising interest rates again. The prospect of delays sent the dollar lower and gave metals a boost as alternative investments. Bullion holdings in exchange-traded products have climbed for 15 consecutive days, the longest run since September 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



Since the start of the year, investors added $2.6 billion to U.S. exchange-traded funds linked to precious metals, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That follows a withdrawal of $2.7 billion in 2015, when bullion posted a third straight annual loss. The metal is “in the process of bottoming out,” analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a Feb. 5 report.
Shares of Newmont rose as much as 6.3 percent to $25.94, heading for a fourth straight increase. Kinross Gold Corp. climbed as much as 13 percent in Toronto.
“Newmont, I think, in particular benefits from being in really good shape and having the gold price tailwind help it out,” Christopher LaFemina, an analyst at Jefferies LLC, said by telephone from New York. “‘Newmont stands out to me as being relatively cheap, good free-cash flow, relatively low operational risk and a good, strong balance sheet.”
"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #181 on: February 09, 2016, 05:29:12 PM »

Goldman: Oil will recover faster than metals
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Operations at U.S. Steel
Source: United States Steel Corporation
Operations at U.S. Steel
Metals prices may have outperformed oil over the past 20 months, but that's unlikely to continue, with metals set to keep dropping while crude recovers, Goldman Sachs said.

"On the supply side, metals tend to have higher costs of closure, slower 'decline' rates, and near infinite storage capacity, prolonging supply-side adjustment relative to shale oil production which has lower costs of closure, higher decline rates, and finite storage," Goldman said in a note dated Monday.

Additionally, metals demand growth would likely stay subdued because the segment was more exposed to the slowdown in China's investment-driven "old economy," Goldman said.

"We now anticipate no material recovery in Chinese metals demand growth in 2016 (most notably in late construction cycle heavy copper), as China's metals and mining commodity demand is likely to continue to be challenged by a substantial debt and property inventory overhang," the bank said.

House building was not particularly sensitive to metals prices, so cheaper metals would not spur a new building boom, it added.


Goldman: Fed will only hike 3 times this year
Goldman believes China's shift away from metals-intensive investment is probably permanent.

The bank was most bearish on copper, forecasting the price would fall by 14 percent over the next 12 months to $4,000 a ton, down from its previous forecast of $4,500 a ton.

"Overall we now see global copper demand growth slowing to 0.5 percent in 2016, well below trend of around 2.5 percent p.a., and below our prior forecast of almost 2 percent," it said.

At the same time, Goldman expects copper's surplus supply to increase and does not expect the market for the metal to return to balance until 2020.

Goldman put aluminum prices at $1,350 a ton on a 12-month view, down from a previous forecast for $1,550 a ton.

"The aluminum market continues to, in our view, face the greatest bearish fundamental shock in a generation, and perhaps, in its history," Goldman said. "Demand growth is well below trend, and supply – especially Chinese supply – has been resilient despite falling prices."

Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs
Oil storage at capacity: Goldman's Currie
It remained bearish on aluminum over the next 12-24 months largely because Chinese producers were making solid cash margins even at current prices and were unlikely to curtail capacity sufficiently to balance the market over that period.

Goldman was also bearish on gold on the back of expectations of higher real U.S. interest rates through 2016 and 2017. It forecast Comex gold at $1,000 an ounce by the end of this year.

But the bank was more positive on zinc, forecasting 7 percent upside on a three-month view to $1,800 a ton, although it cut its 12-month view to $1,700 a ton from $1,800.

"Zinc is the only base metal with the prospect for deficits over the next 12-months, owing to mine supply depletions and curtailments," Goldman said. "We expect zinc to significantly outperform other metals prices, with zinc smelters set to go through a period of margin deterioration."


Offline king

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #182 on: February 10, 2016, 05:02:03 AM »



1191

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #183 on: February 11, 2016, 04:57:12 AM »



1195

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #184 on: February 12, 2016, 04:50:39 AM »



1249

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #185 on: February 12, 2016, 06:58:40 AM »

Home
Jeff Gundlach: Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central Banks Is Lost
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 16:49 -0500

BIS Bond Central Banks Gundlach headlines Jeff Gundlach OPEC Puerto Rico Reuters


 
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It's a day ending in -day, which means it is time for another Jeff Gundlach fire sermon, as transcribed by Reuters. And while in his most recent address to the mortals the new bond king from DoubleLine focused on tremors in the bond market, predicting that "credit fund bankruptcies are coming," and that "the VIX needs to surge above 40 before a bottom can be made in the high-yield junk bond market", today he focused on a topic we have been covering all day, namely the collapse of faith in central bankers and the ascent of gold as a preferred asset class to paper money and bank deposits.

In his latest communication with the outside world, Gundlach said that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce "as investors lose faith in central banks", Reuters reported.

"The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the 'In Central Banks We Trust' mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax," Gundlach said.

Well, yes, even Bloomberg finally admitted it.



But the question is why does Gundlach see gold rising to only $1400. After all if, as JPM calculated the ECB, BOJ and Fed will cut rates to as low at -4.5%, then gold - as the only form of currency that will remain in physical form and is not taxable (at least until the government confiscates it) - will end up far, far higher than just $1,400, which is less than 15% from the current price.

Indeed, if the Chinese population decides to reallocate just a tiny fraction of their $25 trillion in deposits away from cash and into gold ahead of the inevitable massive Chinese devaluation, the question is how many zeroes Gundlach's forecast will be off by.

Anyway, back to Gundlach who said that negative rates are highly correlated with equities, particularly with banks and financials. Their stocks have come under severe selling pressure as negative rates would hurt their balance sheets.

"What's scaring people is the '12 rate hikes in three years' in the dots. When are they going to change the dots? They are still there," Gundlach said about the Fed's dot plot.

He repeeated that "the market is going to humiliate the Fed. It's bizarro to have rate hike projections while at the same time, Yellen is talking about negative rates. What a mess."

Gundlach's predictive track record speaks for itself:  last year, Gundlach correctly predicted that oil prices would plunge, junk bonds would live up to their name and China's slowing economy would pressure emerging markets. In 2014, Gundlach correctly also forecast U.S. Treasury yields would fall, not rise as many others had expected.

"The Fed raising rates in this environment is unthinkable," Gundlach said. Gundlach also told Reuters that he purchased more Puerto Rico general obligation bonds at around 70 cents on the dollar. He added: "You make money on the short side. The market is moving too fast for the Fed to keep up."

Or, if one wants to avoid the threat of idiotic short squeezes driven by idiotic headlines such as the recurring "OPEC is cutting production" hoax (note: the Saudis aren't cutting anything until the US shale sector lies in a rubble of chapter 11s and 7s), one can just buy gold.

Yes, the BIS will do its best to slam it down with naked shorting, but that only provides lower entry points to accumulate positions in a commodity which as even the Amazon Post's Keynesian lackey correctly put it, is "a bet that the people in charge don't know what they're doing."

If by now it is not clear that the people in charge are idiots - and the US 2016 presidential race should have sealed it - it never will be.


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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #186 on: February 12, 2016, 07:00:22 AM »


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JPM: "Things Have Gotten Out Of Control: People Have More Confidence In Gold Than In Paper Money"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 14:52 -0500

Bank of America Bank of America fixed


 
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Following the biggest one-day surge in the price of gold since 2009, it is understandable that suddenly everyone who until recently was predicting the price of gold in the triple digits, or laughably explaining why "gold is doomed" wants to talk about the "pet rock." As we showed earlier, already Goldman and Bank of America have opined with new and upwardly mobile "price targets", while the scramble to obtain gold in a world drowning not only in negative rates but soon, cash bans, has already been unleashed.

And yet, nobody summarized the sentiment quite as well as the "Global CIO & Head, Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group" (did they forget to add something to that title) of JPMorgan Bob Michele, who earlier today was on CNBC and admitted the following stunner.

There is a serious credit contraction underway, I think [Yellen] should acknowledge that. I think she has to look at the capital base being wiped off the banks in this downdraft and equities: that's not supposed to be happening right now. They're supposed to be bulletproof, and oh, by the way, gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, in a safe haven, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money. I think things have gotten out of control.

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #187 on: February 12, 2016, 07:11:21 AM »

财经  2016年02月11日
金价涨到8个月新高 中印买家继续抢

(香港11日讯)纽约黄金期货价周四(11日)在亚洲盘大涨1.7%,攀抵8个多月以来最高,因为美联储(Fed)主席耶伦周三在国会作证时暗示,如果全球市场持续动盪,可能放缓升息脚步。而隨著避险资產需求增加,中国和印度两大黄金买主势必將继续买进更多黄金。

纽约黄金期货周三收盘下跌0.3%,至每安士1194.6美元,在连5涨后回调盘整,不过今天在亚洲早盘恢復涨势,最高升抵每安士1215.3美元,是去年5月中旬以来最高,涨幅达1.7%。

世界黄金协会(WGC)今天公布的报告显示,全球去年最后3个月的黄金消费量比1年前增加4%,达到1117.7公吨,央行的需求成长了25%,是连续第20季提高黄金准备,全年共计买进588.4吨的黄金;而金价跌至近5年低点也带动去年下半年金饰的买气,是10多年来仅见。

WGC印度负责人说,全球股市有点陷入震盪,黄金就变成很好的保值工具,「我们发现中国和印度人持续买进金条和金幣。」

中国去年仍是黄金的最大买家,占全球总量的1/4以上


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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #188 on: February 12, 2016, 02:16:55 PM »



「金油價比」飆至44新高 金融市場爆大鑊?
02月12日(五) 11:34   

1:38



 
【on.cc東網專訊】全球股市步入熊市,加上憂慮各國央行推負利率,刺激金價大升至1,263美元1年高位。與此同時,油價持續尋底,紐油跌破27美元;令目前金價與油價比升至44的歷史新高,即每安士黃金的價值,相當於44桶原油。

「金油價比」長期平均水平為15.5。根據歷史經驗,每次「金油價比」飆升之際,就是金融市場發生危機之時。

上世紀80年代的石油危機、拉美經濟危機、亞洲金融風暴、2008年金融海嘯、歐債危機及新興市場危機,每次「金油價比」都顯著抽升,但都不會超過40。現時「金油價比」刷新至44水平,為有紀錄以來所未見,預示金融市場有幾大鑊?

據報,英國最大的網上黃金交易商BullionByPost表示,市場恐怕另一場金融危機發生,使其單日黃金交易額達創記錄560萬英鎊,並且不斷收到瘋狂的訂單來電,其中倫敦一些銀行訂購了非常大額的實物黃金訂單

Offline king

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #189 on: February 12, 2016, 02:21:20 PM »



What Crisis Is The Gold/Oil Ratio Predicting This Time?
Monday February 01, 2016 14:09
The Oil-to-Gold ratio graphic shown below appeared on January 18th at Zero Hedge. It is fascinating to me for three reasons. First, as the chart points out, when oil becomes extremely cheap relative to gold—and an ounce of gold will buy more oil now than ever before—it suggests that some major financial crisis is likely to follow. Secondly, gold usually responds well to a major crisis. The third reason this is of interest to me is that low energy prices generally bode well for the profitability of gold mining operations.

Regarding point #2, I hasten to add that though a crisis is usually good for gold and gold mining profits, I do not cheer for crisis. Given monetary policies over several decades, I am positioned for crisis which I believe are baked into the system. Since 2008-09 that position has not come without great cost to me and my readers. But in the long run, you cannot avoid a major crisis in capitalism given the fact that policy makers, led by the Federal Reserve Bank do not allow price recognition of capital, thanks to interest rate manipulation and what can only be described as the * of capital.



There are things we cannot control but our actions can and must result from what we believe to be true and a great deal of what we believe to be true follows from historical examples. And so, given the illustration on the left, it is impossible not to pay attention to the fact that very high gold/oil ratios have been correlated to major crises over the past 30 years. Dating back to the OPEC Oil Crisis of the early 1980s, the gold price has never been as high relative to oil as it is now. And so we think it is likely presaging some or perhaps many major catastrophes ahead. We hope and pray we are wrong. Certainly the past is not prologue to the future, but this chart really stood out in my mind.  In addition, gold is rising to a new high relative to a basket of commodities as you can see from the gold/Rogers Raw Materials chart on your right.  This should be good news for a select group of gold miners, four of which I have discussed in my newsletter. These are gold miners I think are in the best position to survive this difficult time for the mining industry and grow dramatically in the future as the yellow metal finally turns the corner, hopefully this year.

It is interesting now how even a few big name mainstream types are starting to talk in cataclysmic terms. For example, billionaire financier George Soros warned from Davos this past week that the European Union is on the "verge of collapse" over the migrant crisis and is in "danger of kicking the ball further up the hill" in its management of the issue that saw more than a million migrants and refugees arrive in the region in 2015. Soros also compared our current global financial situation to that of 2008. And, in a prerecorded interview for my radio show (www.jaytaylormedia.com/audio/), Roy Sebag told me that the number of people seeking to get out of the banking system and into GoldMoney/Bitgold is increasing very dramatically now. At the same time, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs, told Charlie Rose this past week that the equity bull market still has a little longer to run. The cynical side of me says, “Of course! Keep the little guy in the market as long as possible to extract the last drop of blood from him that you can!”

But, I would do well to humbly realize that only the Creator really knows the heart and mind of Ms. Mossavar-Rahmani. Christians are not supposed to judge. But then at the same time, the good book tells us to be “wise as serpents.” As such, it seems to me it would be very foolish to ignore what the gold/oil ratio as well as what Mr. Soros are telling us

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #190 on: February 12, 2016, 02:37:00 PM »
Cash is king  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Gold is also king  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

 :clap: :clap: :clap:

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #191 on: February 12, 2016, 02:41:29 PM »


財經






Kitco:現在的選擇就是黃金
02月12日(五) 11:58   

(美聯社圖片)

 
【on.cc東網專訊】環球金融市場狀況在惡化,投資者對銀行於油價持續下行的風險敞口感到擔憂,正大舉撤離歐洲和美國銀行股;與此同時,負利率政策蔓延,動搖全球金融體系,投資者紛紛湧向黃金避險。

黃金的投機性押注近幾周已變得更加樂觀。監管數據顯示,1月份對沖基金及其他投資者對每日規模600億美元的黃金期貨市場的押注已經出現多頭,而自去年11月中旬以來這些投資者一直押注金價下跌。

Kitco Metals全球交易主管Peter Hug稱,這種擔憂心態主導的交易勢頭非常強勁,投資者都在拋售,隨之而來的現金要尋找一個落腳之處,現在的選擇就是黃金。

花旗集團高級策略師Aakash Doshi估計,截至1月底,有20億美元投資資本從美國股市和新興市場流向黃金。

道明證券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek稱,1月份多數時間上海交易的金價要比倫敦市場的金價高,說明需求升溫。

據報,對沖基金經理普爾遜(John Paulson)將旗管理的大約30億美元資產以及他自己的2.5億美元資金投向黃金。

Offline king

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #192 on: February 12, 2016, 02:44:34 PM »



NIRP,

PANACEA BECOME POISON

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #193 on: February 13, 2016, 05:15:12 AM »



1239

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #194 on: February 13, 2016, 02:29:36 PM »



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JPM's Kolanovic Warns Upcoming Recession Could Be Comparable To 2008 Crisis; Says "Buy Gold, Cash And VIX"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 23:33 -0500

Bear Market Bond Central Banks China Equity Markets ETC None Purchasing Power Recession Volatility


 
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By now all of our readers should be familiar with JPM's head quant Marko Kolanovic whose unblemished track record of accurate market calls is not only second to none, but is the equivalent in absolute value terms of Dennis Gartman's consistently wrong calls, which is why we won't spend time introducing him.

Instead we cut right to the chase with the highlights of his latest note released moments before the market close today, in which he lays out the biggest risks to the market, which are as follows:

deterioration of sentiment and fundamental selling (hedge funds, pensions, wealth funds, retail, etc.).
deleveraging of Equity Long-Short hedge funds is an overhang
quant funds may pare gross leverage.
increased volatility, deleveraging, rotation out of momentum, and weak sentiment will continue to be a headwind
Kolanovic then explains how to hedge against this ongoing storm ("increased allocation to gold, cash and VIX"), with the section on gold particularly delightful for his crucifixion of the strawman created by the most famous Obama tax advisor and crony capitalist from Omaha:

The arguments against gold that we have heard were along two lines: The first is what can be loosely called “Warren Buffet’s” argument: “Gold is a relic of past; aliens visiting earth would be puzzled why people hold it at all.” As the argument is non-quantitative in nature, one can only address it as such. If indeed aliens could overcome space-time barriers, they would also know that the metal was used as a store of value longer than any other real asset. Since the beginning of written history, countless currencies and governments emerged and failed while gold kept approximately the same purchasing power (albeit with some volatility, and positive correlation to levels of risk).
All we can say here is that when JPM employees viciously attack Buffett for his position on gold, hold on tight.

Kolanovic also crushes Wall Street's penguin momentum train:



The second argument was that of Momentum: “if an asset was going down, it will keep on going down,” We have concluded that many of our competitors rely on momentum in their commodity forecasts (e.g., when oil is $150, they forecast $200; when it is $30, they forecast teens). This type of trend following can always be rationalized (e.g., oil will go down because it is very difficult to store it – so it has to be sold; and Metals will go down because it is very easy to store them – so production will not slow down). While a simple momentum prescription does work most of the time, the key is to assess the likelihood of market turning points during which one can lose years of profits in a matter of days (less painful for a sell-side analyst and more for an investor).
More apropos to the current global bear market and economic slowdown, is Kolanovic' warning that a recession as a result of the market's loss of trillions in market cap now seems inevitable:

Global markets are now facing a significant ‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to result in a recession. This negative wealth effect of low commodity prices and a strong USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving down together.
Finally, to our applause, Kolanovic concludes by slamming ole' crony uncle Warren one final time (no point in wasting too much time on the senile billionaire).

Finally, we think the aliens from the previous section would likely be surprised: not with the gold price, but with markets and an economy that are driven by a handful of central bankers taking active market views.
The aliens would quickly understand, however, when they realize they are dealing with a banana planet in which the central bankers only serve a handful of billionaire oligarchs, while leaving billions of people to fend for themselves.

* * *

Kolanovic's full note:

EQUITIES: Exposure of systematic strategies (CTA, Risk Parity, Vol Targeting) to equities is relative low, which reduces some downside tail risk for the S&P 500. Currently, the main risk comes from deterioration of sentiment and fundamental selling (hedge funds, pensions, wealth funds, retail, etc.). Deleveraging of Equity Long-Short hedge funds is an overhang as well, given the poor performance YTD (see, for example, HFRXEH index). Quant funds took a significant hit with the momentum sell-off during the first week of February (see HFRXEMN index) and may pare gross leverage. A market-neutral portfolio of Momentum stocks declined ~6% in the first week of February and has been recovering slightly over the last two days. Increased volatility, deleveraging, rotation out of momentum, and weak sentiment will continue to be a headwind for the S&P 500 in coming days.
 
GOLD: Since the end of last year, we have been advocating increased allocation to gold, cash and VIX. Specifically on gold, we have argued that it would benefit from the main market concern, which is the rising risk of a global recession, as well as potential mitigation of these risks: the Fed turning more dovish and a weaker dollar removing pressure from emerging markets and the commodities sector. In an unlikely tail scenario that we see as a temporary loss of confidence in central banks, gold would likely benefit as well. The arguments against gold that we have heard were along two lines: The first is what can be loosely called “Warren Buffet’s” argument: “Gold is a relic of past; aliens visiting earth would be puzzled why people hold it at all.” As the argument is non-quantitative in nature, one can only address it as such. If indeed aliens could overcome space-time barriers, they would also know that the metal was used as a store of value longer than any other real asset. Since the beginning of written history, countless currencies and governments emerged and failed while gold kept approximately the same purchasing power (albeit with some volatility, and positive correlation to levels of risk).

The second argument was that of Momentum: “if an asset was going down, it will keep on going down,” We have concluded that many of our competitors rely on momentum in their commodity forecasts (e.g., when oil is $150, they forecast $200; when it is $30, they forecast teens). This type of trend following can always be rationalized (e.g., oil will go down because it is very difficult to store it – so it has to be sold; and Metals will go down because it is very easy to store them – so production will not slow down). While a simple momentum prescription does work most of the time, the key is to assess the likelihood of market turning points during which one can lose years of profits in a matter of days (less painful for a sell-side analyst and more for an investor). We have written on market turning points from a theoretical perspective, as well as in the context of recent market moves, specifically in terms of positioning, gold CTA signal turning positive, etc. For a further rationale behind the gold thesis, see notes from our Metals strategist (here and here). 
 
CENTRAL BANKS AND OIL: Central banks outside of the US have been trying to push on a string recently with negative rates. It has not produced desired results (e.g., a sell-off in the banking sector). Our view is that over the past 18 months, the Fed has been too concerned with the risk of inflation, and perhaps too little with global deflationary pressures and a crisis outside of the US. This has contributed to a rapid strengthening of the USD and put additional pressure on Emerging Markets and certain segments of the US economy. As a result global markets are now facing a significant ‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to result in a recession. This negative wealth effect of low commodity prices and a strong USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving down together.
 
So, if the negative rates and more bond purchases are losing effectiveness, what else could central banks do at this point? Could they buy commodities (other than gold)? Should they urge for a fiscal stimulus (they are governments’ biggest bondholders)? Perhaps as a start, a hold could be placed on all planned rate hikes. Finally, we think the aliens from the previous section would likely be surprised: not with the gold price, but with markets and an economy that are driven by a handful of central bankers taking active market views (on inflation, oil, etc.). Last but not least, they may wonder how the current levels of oil production outside of the US make any economic sense

Offline king

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Reply #195 on: February 15, 2016, 09:44:25 AM »


回避熊市风险 29兆游资转向 黄金将迎大牛市
头条 全国  2016-02-15 07:38

 
(槟城14日讯)全球总值约7兆美元(约29兆令吉)公债游资推波助澜,黄金避险功能隔夜速燃,大马金价今年内有望冲上每克200令吉高位,在全球股市跌入熊市当儿,黄金极可能迎来大牛市。
与此同时,黄金的“孪生兄弟”白银,更在这一波中狂涨了10%。
在全球经济低迷中迎来丙申猴年,各界都祈望2016年经济能够像齐天大圣般翻筋斗来个大翻身,国际金价就在大年初四美国隔夜股市急涨53.2美元,叩每盎司1247.8美元。
金价闭市前更一度大涨5.8%,触及自2015年2月以来最高价位的1263.9美元,创下2009年来最大单日涨幅,引起全球哗然。
在大马人还未回过神,以为这一轮黄金大涨又是纯属马币贬值之时,国际社会包括伦敦掀起抢购黄金热潮。
乱局彰显避险功能 金价或上探300元
这个动荡局面,大马唯一实物黄金白银交易机构———大众金行执行主席拿督威拉黄俊豪于曾指出,全球股汇市舞会将退场,实物黄金白银将迎大牛市。
黄俊豪说,这一轮的黄金大涨,并非单纯马币贬值这么简单,而是全球总值7兆美元公债游资乱窜兴风作浪。
他说,只要7兆美元当中1%或700亿美元资金被投入资金避风港的实物黄金市场,黄金避险功能迅速重燃,在这个庞大外逃公债热钱的推波助澜下,有足够的威力将大马本土金价在今年内从目前的170令吉推上每克200令吉,甚至攀高到更惊人的每克300令吉境界。
他说,公债资金外逃初期,已让国际金价于周四(11日)从每盎司1160美元冲上1250高位或飙涨5.8%。黄金的孪生兄弟白银爆发力更惊人,狂涨10%,从每盎司14.20美元冲上15.75美元。
他形容目前的全球局势仍然乱糟糟,尽管美联储(Fed)尚未采取负利率政策,但是美联储主席叶伦在国会表明不需降息的隔天已改口表示不抗拒负利率,甚至可能推出新一轮的货币量化宽松(QE4),肯定将把黄金推上另一个高峰。
银价涨逾12%
黄金冲新高,白银更有潜能。
黄俊豪指出,随着国际金价冲上1250美元,白银也不遑多让,于周四晚一度冲上15.94美元,涨幅超过12%或1.70美元。
他说,黄金与白银的比例,在近年已从之前的1对65被拉大至1对80,让投资者可以以更低的成本趁低大量累积白银。
他深信,白银的走势将会紧随着黄金的价格一起上涨,甚至比黄金的表现更亮眼。
独家报道:陈富全

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Will Gold Be The World's Best Currency, Again?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2016 16:25 -0500

Central Banks Copper New York Times Trail of Tears


 
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Submitted by Henry Hewitt via OilPrice.com,

After Peak Debt Comes Deflation

Paper money, ‘the Heaven-sent leaf’, is nothing new, but it has not always been held in high regard nor previously attained its unquestioned position as the lubricant of trade, financial markets and the road to wealth.

In fact, for most of the last 2,500 years, since Croesus brought scalable coinage to the world, paper money has been considered a temporary, even flaky, alternative to real money – hard money – gold and silver specie. Indeed, even in recent memory, the road to the Emerald City was paved with ounces of gold, hence the Yellow Brick Road in the Land of Oz

If you are an investor, this may be the time to have a serious talk with the face you see in the mirror and ask: Have we really moved on from the ‘barbarous relic’? Can paper money keep its value when all the Central Bankers and planners in the world are intent upon printing as much of it as they possibly can? Is it different this time?

Who needs paper, you say? Now we have electronic money, bits and photons flashing across our screens, capable of leaping vast oceans at a single bound. That is different. What isn’t different is that those bits, and that paper have to represent something of value, and in a world where the ability to produce anything and everything – from the paper itself, to copper, aluminum, iron ore, oil and the ships to move them around the world – has reached a point that there seems to be more stuff available than demand from those who put that stuff to work, or even on the shelf expecting to sell it in the not too distant future.

In the process, driven by animal spirits that have always taken markets to new heights, another summit has been reached – peak debt. From the pages of The New York Times we read: “Beneath the surface of the global financial system lurks a multitrillion-dollar problem that could sap the strength of large economies for years to come.”

One sure way to know that the world’s economy is in a pickle is the arrival, and continuation, of low, even zero or negative rates of interest around the world. What does that even mean? It means that investors are so concerned they would rather pay a government or institution for the privilege of lending them money than keep it in a local bank or under the mattress. It happened in 1932, just before the wheels fell off the U.S. banking system. It is happening now.

David Stockman, the Reagan Administration’s boy wonder when it came to financing ‘supply-side’ economics, a policy that Mr. Reagan’s presidential rival in 1980 (George Bush Sr.) called ‘Voodoo economics’, has seen the light.

“I think it’s the end of an era . . . [Central Banks] create[d] a massive credit expansion in the world that’s stopping . . . Everywhere is at peak debt . . . Secondly, the Central Banks are all out of powder. The Fed has painted itself into a corner . . . They can’t see what’s coming right at us which is a global deflation . . . We’re gonna have a Capex depression,” he told Bloomberg on February 9.
What a pity it wasn’t gold paint.

Chart of Gold Prices


A move from 1,100 to 1,900 -- 2011 peak -- is a gain of 72 percent, roughly the gain mandated in the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.



Even if the thought of buying or owning gold is sacrilege to your ears, and you just cannot bring yourself to do it, you ought to be asking yourself if more paper money makes sense now. When you had that chat with the face in the mirror did you ask: “How much faith do you have in paper money? How much faith do you have in Central Banks? How much faith do you have in the fiscal probity of the government?”

“Attention K-Mart shoppers, shares that could be bought in 2009 at the devilishly low price of 666 on the S&P 500 are now going for 2,000. Get ‘em while they last. Don’t wait for 3,000.” In other words, shares that were ‘too risky’ at 666 became ‘prudent’ investments at 2,000. At 3,000 they should be risk free. Am I missing something?

If you cannot help yourself and still believe that the road to wealth and security lies along the paper trail (and not a trail of tears), you won’t be alone:

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Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
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