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Crude Oil
OPEC figures show oil output cuts exceed pledge in March — sources
By Reuters / Reuters   | April 12, 2017 : 12:31 AM MYT   
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DUBAI/LONDON (April 11): OPEC states cut oil output in March by more than they pledged under supply curbs, according to figures the exporter group uses to monitor its supply, extending a record of higher-than-expected adherence to its first production cut in eight years.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan 1 to prop up prices and reduce a glut. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC states agreed to cut half as much.

Production from the 11 OPEC members with output targets under the deal has averaged 29.757 million bpd in March, according to average assessments of secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its output. The figures were seen by Reuters.

OPEC pledged to reduce output by the 11 countries to 29.804 million bpd. This means production has fallen by more than OPEC said it would and amounts to 104 percent adherence to the supply cut regime, according to an OPEC calculation.

"OPEC's compliance has been more than anticipated," an OPEC delegate said. "For non-OPEC, it is satisfactory and getting better."

The supply cut is supporting oil prices which are trading around $56 a barrel, up from US$42 a year ago.

OPEC expects the output cuts to reduce excess supply weighing on the market.

"We are gradually but steadily on course to seeing a return to balanced oil markets," OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters, adding that OPEC and non-OPEC states were seeking "sustainable stability" in the market.

Including Nigeria and Libya, the two members exempt from the deal to cut supply, output by all 13 OPEC members in March fell to 31.939 million bpd, two sources said. That would be down 19,000 bpd from OPEC's published February figure.

OPEC is scheduled to publish the assessment of March output based on secondary sources in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday. The figures could be revised before publication as more secondary-source estimates are added, OPEC sources said.

The 11 non-OPEC producers that joined the deal have not cut as much production, partly because of phased implementation of the agreement by Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer that is cooperating with the organisation.

But compliance by OPEC and non-OPEC together is expected to rise in March from February's level of 94 percent, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said on Monday.

OPEC uses two sets of figures to monitor its output — figures provided by each country and those provided by secondary sources that include industry media. This is a legacy of old disputes over real production levels.

The production cut agreed last year was from levels as assessed by the secondary sources.

The six secondary sources used by OPEC are the International Energy Agency, oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the US Energy Information Administration, consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates and industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly.

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #3558 on: April 13, 2017, 05:30:19 PM »



IEA says global oil market now close to balance
Reuters
/
Reuters

April 13, 2017 16:32 pm MYT
-A+A
LONDON (April 13): The global oil market is close to balance, after nearly three years of excess supply, as production cuts by top exporters offset a longer-term decline in demand in the richest nations, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The agency said oil stocks across the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) fell by 17.2 million barrels in March, resulting in an increase of 38.5 million barrels, or 425,000 barrels per day (bpd), in the first three months of the year.

"The net result is that global stocks might have marginally increased in the first quarter, versus an implied draw of about 0.2 million barrels per day," the Paris-based IEA said.

"It can be argued confidently that the market is already very close to balance, and as more data becomes available this will become clearer. We have an interesting second half to come."

Overall, OECD crude stocks fell by 8.1 million barrels in February to 3.055 billion barrels, still 330 million barrels above the five-year average, the IEA said.

The IEA trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2017 by 40,000 bpd to 1.32 million bpd. It warned this could prove optimistic given slowing consumption in the United States and developed Asian economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea.

On the supply front, the agency said global production fell by 755,000 bpd in March to 95.98 million bpd as OPEC and its partners complied with a joint deal to cut output by 1.8 million bpd in the first half of this year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stuck to its pledge in March, bringing compliance to a "robust" 99%, the IEA said.

The agency said non-OPEC signatories, including Russia and Oman, raised their compliance rate to 64%, from 38% in February.

For 2017, the IEA said it expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 485,000 bpd, above its previous estimate of 400,000 bpd, led by increases in US production growth.

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下副刊地方体育娱乐言论市场情报
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 亚洲4大客户需求减缓 油盟抬价策略或打折
亚洲4大客户需求减缓
油盟抬价策略或打折
393点看 2017年4月15日
 
迪拜油商预料,国际油市迟早会出现“紧张性”卖压。

(纽约14日讯)亚洲中、日、印度及韩国四大石油消费大户的石油需求,若非增长减缓、就是萎缩,将削弱石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产抬价策略的效果。


迪拜油商预料,国际油市迟早会出现“紧张性”卖压。

路透社报道,亚洲石油消耗量占全球供给量的三分之一,多年来一直是需求增长最快的区域,也是支撑油价的主力,但目前已出现需求增长减缓的信号。

伦敦布兰特油价4月来虽上涨5.5%,但沙地阿拉伯已宣布将调降5月份对亚洲的供油价格,每桶调降0.3美元,比阿曼/迪拜市场平均油价每桶共折价0.45美元,伊朗也宣布调降亚洲油价。



中国需求3年低点

迪拜石油经纪商指出,中国石油消费增长率已降到三年低点;中国公布的数字显示,2月汽油出口量创历年来次高,主因为国内汽油供给过剩。

印度3月石油消费量,也比去年同期减少0.6%,虽是受到废除旧钞的影响,但分析员认为,未来很难恢复原有的增长水准。

印度石油公司董事长苏拉纳预测,今年石油需求将增加5.5%,远低于去年10.9%的增长率。

日本及韩国因人口老化,及能源使用效率调升,未来石油需求将只减不增。

日本能源委员会预测,未来五年石油需求每年将减少逾1.5%。

全球供过于求

韩国今年1到2月石油产品需求,比去年同期减少0.4%。能源经济研究所专家预测,今年国内石油产品总需求量增长将减缓,长期趋势则与日本相同。

布兰特原油2018年底及2019年底的期货价格,目前已经回落到每桶56美元。高盛集团对长期基准油价的预估为每桶50美元。

汤森路透预测,今年全球原油供给过剩的数量,减少到平均每天10万桶,比去年的68万桶大幅下降,但仍是供过于求,何况累积库存量仍居高不下。


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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #3565 on: April 17, 2017, 10:22:00 AM »



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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #3566 on: April 17, 2017, 10:31:55 AM »



Monday, 17 April 2017 | MYT 9:19 AM
Oil price down in subdued Asian trade early Monday
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/17/01/26/oil-pipe.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=E25ECD4C9E3562F2482620F66EA7C60DE555A8DC
Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 18 cents 55.71 at 0047 GMT. On Thursday, before the break closed most major markets, they settled up 3 cents at $55.89 a barrel.  U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also down 18 cents at $53. They rose 7 cents to $53.18 a barrel on Thursday.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 18 cents 55.71 at 0047 GMT. On Thursday, before the break closed most major markets, they settled up 3 cents at $55.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also down 18 cents at $53. They rose 7 cents to $53.18 a barrel on Thursday.
 
TOKYO: Crude oil futures fell slightly in quiet trading on Monday, after a three-day Easter break, as investors digested a third consecutive weekly gain in prices along with North Korea's failed missile launch on Sunday.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 18 cents 55.71 at 0047 GMT. On Thursday, before the break closed most major markets, they settled up 3 cents at $55.89 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also down 18 cents at $53. They rose 7 cents to $53.18 a barrel on Thursday.

Both benchmarks closed out the Easter holiday eve higher for a third consecutive week, with Brent adding 1.2 percent over the four days and WTI up 1.8 percent.

The subdued start to this week came as markets braced for more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, after its attempted launch on Sunday of a ballistic missile failed as the projectile blew up almost immediately.

The United States is working with allies and China on responses to the failed test, U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser said on Sunday.

Crude traders and investors in Asia also had their first chance to assess a 13th consecutive increase in the rig count by drillers of U.S. shale oil.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Thursday that drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week to April 13, bringing the total count up to 683. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Oil & Gas , Commodities , Stocks , Earnings , Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/17/oil-price-down-in-subdued-asian-trade-early-monday/#xoDWG2UijxxZ52ld.99

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #3567 on: April 17, 2017, 01:39:54 PM »



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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #3568 on: April 17, 2017, 03:29:38 PM »



2017-04-17 14:51
OPEC目标油价:60美元
OPEC官员表示,包括沙地阿拉伯在内的一些最大的油盟成员国目前将目标油价定为每桶60美元,这意味着这些国家将在下月的油盟会议上支持进一步削减产量。

(图:法新社)
(美国.纽约17日讯)OPEC官员表示,包括沙地阿拉伯在内的一些最大的油盟成员国目前将目标油价定为每桶60美元,这意味着这些国家将在下月的油盟会议上支持进一步削减产量。

广告



官员们表示,沙地、伊拉克和科威特认为每桶60美元的油价能提振经济,并且促进更多的能源业投资,同时不会导致美国页岩油产量大幅上升。页岩油生产较多数石油生产方式更容易随价格变化做出调整。

上述国家过去一直将目标油价定为每桶55美元,这一目标在油盟产量每日减产120万桶后已基本实现。

伊拉克石油部长阿鲁艾比(Jabbar al-Luaibi)在接受采访时表示,伊拉克希望油价升至每桶60美元。熟悉沙地和科威特石油政策的人士也证实这些国家目前希望将油价推升至每桶60美元。

沙地正寻求在其国有的沙地阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Arabian Oil Co.,简称:沙地阿美)进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前提高并稳定油价。沙地计划通过IPO提供沙地阿美至多5%的流通股,为该国推动经济多元化筹措资金。

一名熟悉沙地石油政策的人士称,沙地为了沙地阿美的IPO必须将油价提高至60美元。

原油看涨
OPEC减产抵消美国增产


上任8个月 阿都华希第三次震惊市场

广告

面对美国产量的急速成长,OPEC终于开始有所行动了,对冲基金对该组织的信心也因此又增加了一分。

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示,随着西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货价格一个月来首次升破每桶53美元的水平,对冲基金的WTI净多头连续第二周增加。在更多OPEC成员国料将延续减产之际,美国原油库存也从纪录高点回落。

夏日驾车出行高峰即将到来,炼油厂正在逐步提高原油加工产能,而在这种形势下,成品油供应却一周少似一周。

“人们重新恢复了信心,认为OPEC和非OPEC产油国有能力使全球库存水平降低,”重点从事能源交易的纽约对冲基金Again Capital LLC的合伙人John Kilduff在电话上说。“夏日驾车旺季到来前炼厂产能料也将提高,这也有助于推动原油库存下降。”

广告

沙地阿拉伯国家石油公司首席执行员Amin Nasser在4月14日参加哥伦比亚大学一个活动时曾表示,许多指标都表明市场将更趋平衡。

国际能源署在4月13日的一份月度报告中称,世界库存应会很快开始下降。OPEC在之前一天发布的报告中称已开发国家库存一季度出现萎缩,同时预计美国页岩油行业会加大产量。

CFTC数据显示,在截至4月11日的一周,基金的WTI净多头合约数量增加了16%。当周WTI价格上涨4.6%至每桶53.40美元,4月13日收于53.18美元。

4月14日市场因复活节假日休市。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2017.04.17

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Crude Oil
Oil prices claw back ground after sharp drop, buoyed by US crude stock dip
Reuters
/
Reuters

April 20, 2017 09:17 am MYT
-A+A
SINGAPORE (April 20): Oil prices regained some ground on Thursday after steep losses the previous day, with a slight drop in U.S. crude inventories stoking hopes that a push to rein in global oversupply could be gathering at least some momentum.

Brent crude futures were at $53.31 per barrel at 0108 GMT, up 38 cents, or 0.72 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had risen 31 cents, or 0.61 percent, to $50.75 a barrel.

Traders said that the gains came on the back of a reduction in commercial U.S. crude stocks, which fell by 1 million barrels last week to 532.34 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) <C-STK-T-EIA>. However, that level was still near a record high.

Price increases came after both crude benchmarks fell over 3.5 percent the previous day following a report of surging gasoline inventories as well as another rise in U.S. crude oil production to 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd), up almost 10 percent since mid-2016 <C-OUT-T-EIA>.

U.S. gasoline stocks posted a counter-seasonal build of 1.5 million barrels, despite heavier refining activity.

"The U.S. has now entered a seasonal period in which stockpiles are reduced during the summer driving season, hence the unexpected miss weighed heavily on prices," James Wood, investment analyst with Rivkin Securities, said in a note. - Reuters

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The Real World of Oil Has a Warning for Financial Markets
by Javier Blas  and Rupert Rowling
April 20, 2017, 10:26 PM GMT+8
April 21, 2017, 7:01 AM GMT+8
OPEC supply management yet to work as producer group intended
Brent is benchmark for more than half the world’s crude oil
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BofA’s Blanch Says Strong Dollar ‘Big Headwind’ for Oil
BofA’s Blanch Says Strong Dollar ‘Big Headwind’ for Oil
The Brent physical oil market is flashing signs of weakness again as dwindling Asian purchases, an influx of American crude to Europe, and supplies flowing out of storage all combine to recreate a glut in the North Sea.

The weakness comes at a time when speculators have started rebuilding bullish positions after a sell-off last month, betting the market will tighten in the second quarter. Yet, Brent physical oil traders say the opposite is happening so far, according to interviews with executives at several trading houses, who asked not to be identified discussing internal views.

“We need to see the market going really into deficit for oil prices to rise,” Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich, said. “If this is temporary, it could be weathered, but it needs to be monitored.”

The weakness is particularly visible in so-called time-spreads -- the price difference between contracts for delivery at different periods. Reflecting a growing surplus that could force traders to seek tankers as temporary floating storage facilities, the Brent June-July spread this week fell to an unusually weak minus 55 cents per barrel, down from parity just two months earlier. The negative structure is known in the industry as contango.


"Keep a wary eye on the Brent contango," said Jan Stuart, energy economist at Credit Suisse Securities LLC in New York. "Bellwether Brent time-spreads have been counter-seasonally widening.”

In the world of contracts for difference, which allow traders to insure price exposure for their North Sea crude shipments week-by-week, the one-week CFD spread plunged this week to minus $1.84 a barrel, the weakest since late November and just before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and allied nations announced their first joint effort to manage supply in over a decade. A month ago, the comparable CFD traded at just minus 50 cents barrel.

"It will not take much before we see headlines about floating storage starting to increase again," said Olivier Jakob, head of oil consultant PetroMatrix GmbH, in Zug, Switzerland.

Weaker differentials

The differentials between physical grades and benchmarks have also weakened in recent weeks. Glencore Plc, the world’s largest commodities trader, on Thursday bought from French oil giant Total SA a cargo of Brent crude at $1 a barrel below the main North Sea benchmark, the widest discount in 22 months, according to a trader monitoring deals.


Oil traders said OPEC was initially successful, driving oil prices higher and tightening time-spreads. But the group was a victim of its own success, as those same spreads forced crude out of storage, flooding an already weaker physical market with supply. Higher headline prices also boosted U.S. shale producers.

Among the factors behind the weakness, traders cited muted demand in Asia, saying Chinese independent refiners -- known as "teapots" -- have dramatically reduced buying after strong imports earlier this year.

How OPEC’s cuts have failed to eliminate the glut.

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Crude arrivals from the U.S. are also surging. American exports ran in early April at a four-week average of 706,000 barrels a day, up nearly 90 percent from the same time of last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  In January and February, the nation’s exports to Europe climbed almost fivefold to 178,000 barrels a day, the most recent U.S. Census Bureau figures compiled by Bloomberg show.

Lastly, tighter time-spreads in late February and early March forced some crude out of storage, particularly from onshore tank-farms in the Caribbean and Saldanha Bay in South Africa, flooding the market, the traders said.

As the physical market for Brent weakens, Saudi Arabia said on Thursday that some oil producers have reached a tentative agreement to extend the current round of output cuts. Russia, which joined OPEC earlier this year in lowering production, said it was too early to say whether a roll-over will be needed.

“There is an initial agreement that we might be obligated to extend to get to our target," Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, told an oil conference in Abu Dhabi.


OPEC and several other producers including Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan agreed in December to reduce production by about 1.8 million barrels a day -- the first OPEC and non-OPEC deal in more than a decade -- in an effort to counter an oversupply weighing on prices. The producer group meets again May 25.

"OPEC will need to take action at the next meeting in order to provide some kind of oil-price support," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.


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