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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Thursday, 13 July 2017 | MYT 10:02 AM
PublicInvest expects pressure on oil prices to persist
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/01/03/06/oilrig24a-jan2017.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=336D7401264BE59ABB376AA1D1C32AF5E9DB7F0D

 
KUALA LUMPUR: PublicInvest Research believes pressures on oil prices will persist but will eventually balance out at around the US$50 per barrel (bbl) levels.

The research house reckoned that at US$50 a barrel level, it was enough for oil majors to restart their capex plans considering the lower cost of production and better efficiencies attained in recent times.

It said analysing WTI and Brent’s futures trades to find signals suggests an average towards US$50/bbl for 2017.

“We maintain that the oil and gas ( O&G) industry is more focused on robust activity at stable oil prices rather than very high oil prices at this juncture which is not sustainable.

“Our average Brent oil price levels are estimated as follows: 2017 – US$50/bbl and 2018 – US$55/bbl,” PublicInvest said.

OPEC’s deeper cuts will tighten the medium sour market further, but would have diminished effects on global oil prices which are seemingly more closely linked to light oil varieties.

OPEC produces a heavier and sourer form of oil while US, Nigeria and Libya’s are light and sweet.

“The fundamental difference is therefore leading to a tighter supply condition situation of the medium sour market while a glut remains for the light sweet market based on S&P Global Platts.

“Also, global refiners are switching to lighter forms of oil to take advantage of abundant supply, meaning that OPEC risks losing more customers if it makes deeper cuts,” PublicInvest noted.

The  EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production to average 32.3 million barrel per day in 2017 and for 2018 at 32.8 million barrel per day.

The research house said OPEC was also facing the conundrum of prices or market share.

It said the oil cartel must either choose between fighting for market share by raising production or stabilising prices by maintaining cuts. Attempts to curb US shale out of the market have had muted effects though it has somewhat rescued oil prices from falling.

“We are concerned on OPEC’s motives as its main-leader Saudi Arabia according to secondary sources saw its output jump 190,000 bbls/day to 10.07mbbls/day above the 10.058mbbl/day ceiling, thus above its quota.

“For 2018, OPEC sees non-OPEC oil supply growing by 1.1mbbls/day, higher than the 800,000bbls/day growth expected for 2017, to average 58.96mbbls/day,” PublicInvest said.

“We remain ‘overweight’ on the sector based on oil prices stabilising. Our estimates are premised on the average year-to-date oil price at US$52.3/bbl for Brent and its futures for 2H17 at US$49.0/bbl to balance the year at our estimated USD50/bbl price for Brent in 2017.

“We opine the industry is more focused on robust activity at stable oil prices, rather than very high oil prices at this juncture which is not sustainable,” PublicInvest said.

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Oil & Gas , Analyst Reports , Brent , WTI

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/13/publicinvest-expects-pressure-on-oil-prices-to-persist-maintains-overweight/#SkydfkE9izDKdkt0.99

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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ORLDCORPORATE
Crude Oil
Oil prices dip on high supplies, improving industry efficiency
Reuters
/
Reuters

July 14, 2017 10:05 am MYT

-A+A
SINGAPORE (July 14): Oil markets dipped on Friday, pulled down by high fuel inventories and improving industry efficiency, but were still on track for a solid weekly gain.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $48.34 per barrel at 0151 GMT, but up 3.5 percent for the week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $45.98 per barrel, down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, but up around 4 percent for the week.

Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pledged to withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of production between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten the market.

Oil analysts at research and brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil stocks remain high.

"For the first half of 2017, OECD inventories are likely to finish higher, rather than lower... The most plausible explanation is that OPEC compliance has been not as high as has been suggested," Bernstein said.

"OPEC will have to cut deeper and for longer if it wants to eliminate the inventory overhang and prices to rise," Bernstein said.

It added that the upside for oil prices looked limited even if OPEC took more action due to high U.S. shale production.

Goldman Sachs said that the crude oil price outlook remained weak, largely due to rising cost efficiency from U.S. shale drillers.

"We see potential for shale to breakeven at $45... (and) we see $45-$55 per barrel annual WTI range," the U.S. investment bank said. - Reuters

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Crude Oil
Oil prices tread water as ongoing supply glut is met by firm demand
Reuters
/
Reuters

July 18, 2017 14:52 pm MYT
-A+A
SINGAPORE (July 18): Oil markets were treading water on Tuesday, supported by firm demand but weighed down by ongoing high supplies from producer club OPEC and also the United States.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $48.39 per barrel at 0634 GMT, down 3 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 4 cents at $45.98 per barrel.

"We're stuck in a range that, I think, will be tough to break out of without some kind of political factor coming into play," said Matt Stanley, fuel broker at Freight Investor Services (FIS).

In a sign of strong demand, data on Monday showed refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record.

Despite this, oil markets have struggled with oversupply since 2014, resulting in a more than 50 percent fall in prices since then.

A deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 has so far not led to the tighter market and higher prices that producers have hoped for.

That's because supplies from within OPEC remain high largely due to rising output from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC states exempt from the pact, and increasing U.S. production.

Ecuador, a small producer within OPEC, also said on Tuesday that it was not complying with its production cut of 26,000 bpd due to the country's fiscal deficit which is expected to hit 7.5 percent of GDP this year.

Oil Minister Carlos Perez said that Ecuador was only cutting some 60 percent of that figure, putting current output at 545,000 bpd.

"We are not meeting the quota imposed on us because of the obvious needs the country has," Perez said.

Traders said that a key price indicator would be the release of U.S. fuel storage data by the American Petroleum Institute (API) later on Tuesday, and from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. - Reuters

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Wednesday, 19 July 2017 | MYT 6:48 AM
Oil rises on strong demand, falling Saudi exports
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/01/03/06/oilrig24a-jan2017.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=336D7401264BE59ABB376AA1D1C32AF5E9DB7F0D
Benchmark Brent crude settled up 42 cents at $48.84 a barrel, while U.S. light crude oil settled up 38 cents at $46.40.
Benchmark Brent crude settled up 42 cents at $48.84 a barrel, while U.S. light crude oil settled up 38 cents at $46.40.
 
NEW YORK: Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday as Saudi exports fell and solid demand soaked up some of what is seen as an oversupplied market, but Ecuador's decision to opt out of an OPEC-led supply reduction pact complicated the outlook.

Benchmark Brent crude settled up 42 cents at $48.84 a barrel, while U.S. light crude oil settled up 38 cents at $46.40.

"Saudi Arabia showed a reduction of output so there's a little bit of strength from the data there," said Tony Headrick, energy market analyst at CHS Hedging.

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in May fell to 6.924 million barrels per day (bpd) from 7.006 million bpd in April, official data showed on Tuesday.

The top oil exporter's goal remains to stabilize oil markets by drawing down the global inventory overhang, a Saudi industry source familiar with the kingdom's oil policy said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile in a sign of strong demand, data on Monday showed refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record.

But many markets are well supplied and oil for prompt delivery is trading at heavy discounts to forward futures in several parts of the world.

As a result, crude oil prices are trading at only around half the levels seen three years ago.

A deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018 has so far failed to tighten the market or push up prices.

Although many OPEC countries have restricted production, others including Nigeria and Libya are allowed to increase output.

Ecuador said it would no longer comply with an agreed OPEC production cut of 26,000 bpd due to the country's financial difficulties.

Oil Minister Carlos Perez said Ecuador was cutting only 60 percent of that figure, putting current output at 545,000 bpd.

While Ecuador is a small producer, in a note RBC Capital Markets wrote that "it could embolden other cash strapped producers to seek an exit (from the OPEC deal) as well."

"We highlight Iraq as the most important ‘at-risk’ OPEC member," the RBC note said, adding the "Iraqi oil minister ... has repeatedly criticized the terms of the November 2016 agreement, insisting that Iraq should have been exempted like Libya and Nigeria and that the (210,000 bpd) cut imposes too high a financial burden on the war-ravaged country."

U.S. oil production is also rising steadily.

The U.S. Energy Department said in a report on Monday U.S. shale oil output was likely to rise for the eighth consecutive month in August, climbing 112,000 bpd to 5.585 million bpd.

Oil prices briefly pared gains in post-settlement trade after data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a surprise build of 1.6 million barrels in crude stocks for last week.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a draw of 3.2 million barrels. The market will watch official inventory data on Wednesday morning from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.- Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Oil & Gas , Commodities , Markets

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/19/oil-rises-on-strong-demand-falling-saudi-exports/#AOxy2UXYKG9jRtKj.99

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