Author Topic: Spot Brent Oil Price  (Read 184918 times)

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #4509 on: December 04, 2017, 08:45:33 AM »




Brent to average US$52.50 a barrel in 2018, says Fitch Ratings
Surin Murugiah
/
theedgemarkets.com

December 04, 2017 05:51 am +08

-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 4): The decision of OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries to extend their deal on production cuts reduces the potential for a significant market oversupply in 2018, according to Fitch Ratings.

In a statement last Friday, the rating agency said the extension has already been largely factored into oil prices, which are more likely to stabilise at US$50-US$60 per barrel in the coming years.

However, it said much will depend on the performance of US shale.

Fitch said under the agreement announced on Thursday, OPEC, Russia and the other signatories will maintain their 1.8 million barrels a day of production cuts until end-2018, subject to an interim review in June 2018.

“We believe this should result in a broadly balanced market or only a marginal surplus in 2018, assuming an increase of around 1 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in average US shale oil production compared to 2017, and that compliance with the cuts remains solid,” it said.

Fitch said many factors could affect this expectation, including production volumes in politically unstable regions, the scale of the US supply response to recent price increases, deteriorating compliance with the cuts, or the risk of disruptions to Venezuelan oil exports in the context of a PDVSA or sovereign debt restructuring.

It said these factors could bring the market into deficit or further into surplus.

“This high level of uncertainty supports our continued cautious stance on oil prices for 2018 and beyond, compared to current market prices.

“Our price assumptions include an average Brent price of US$52.50 a barrel in 2018, rising gradually to US$57.50 a barrel thereafter,” it said.

Fitch said Saudi Arabia and Russia are the driving forces behind the deal on production cuts and their commitment to the deal has remained strong.

It said Saudi Arabia cut production by more than required, offsetting insufficient compliance from Iraq, Iran and UAE. Russia also helped to bring other non-OPEC producers into the deal and fully met its obligations.

“We believe both countries have a strong interest in stable oil prices into 2018, as Russian presidential elections are scheduled for March and Saudi Arabia is preparing Aramco's initial public offering.

“However, Russia's commitment to the deal may become less pronounced, as companies with production growth potential, such as Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, may challenge it. In addition, Russia needs a lower oil price than Saudi Arabia to balance its budget,” it said.

Fitch said oil inventories remain well above the five-year average despite the production cuts and progress in reducing them has been slower than expected due to rising output from Nigeria and Libya, which were originally excluded from the pact.

It said the countries' agreement to limit cumulative production to 2.8mmbpd, close to the current level, should not have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance in 2018, as their near-term production upside is limited.

Fitch said US shale production can also respond rapidly to changing market conditions and the recent price recovery increases the probability of strong shale production growth in 2018. US shale is likely to satisfy most of the incremental oil demand in 2018 and we believe it has the capacity to remain the key incremental supplier for the next several years.

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #4510 on: December 04, 2017, 02:24:43 PM »



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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #4511 on: December 04, 2017, 02:36:40 PM »



Petronas projects oil prices to remain at US$50 to US$60 levels
CORPORATE NEWS
Monday, 4 Dec 2017

12:00 PM MYT
image: https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/11/09/00/29/petronas-myanmar-videoclip-0911.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=362FB65B6C4271F027D4FCF8C2B7342DA146A0DA


KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) projects oil prices to remain within the range of US$50s to US$60s per barrel level as Opec and non-Opec members cut production of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Its projection was included in its Petronas Activity Outlook report for 2018-2020 released on Monday where it shared its perspective on industry trends, demand outlook and activities planned for the next three years.

“The report, published to improve market information flow, is part of its efforts to promote and encourage a more robust, resilient and competitive oil and gas services and equipment (OGSE) sector,” it said.

Petronas issued the report which highlighted the slowdown in activities following the drop in oil prices and its strategy for the local oil and gas (O&G) players in the wake of the uncertainty.

Among the highlights of the report is that Petronas' jack-up rigs requirement, used in exploration activities, will be reduced by half for the 2018-2020 period from the 2013-2014 period.

The requirements for tender assisted drilling rigs (TADRs) are expected to be less by about 60% in the next two years compared to the peak period of oil between 2012 and 2013.
 
Among those with the jack up rigs and TADRs in the domestic market are UMW Oil and Gas Bhd and Sapura Energy Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png

.
 
The lower requirements are in tandem with the marginally lower output by Petronas.

Petronas vice president of group procurement, Samsudin Miskon said: “As we approach 2018, the uncertainty in the oil and gas industry remains a topic of constant discussion. It is imperative for industry players to understand key trends as a barometer for the industry.”

“Petronas efforts to counter this uncertainty is to push for transparency of information, which would help rebalance market activities. This will positively impact supporting ecosystem like investment and financing, which are crucial in promoting a thriving OGSE sector.”

The national oil company said its efforts to reduce cost and improve efficiency had shown positive results and helped ensure the industry’s long-term sustainability. 

Other measures taken were nternal transformation initiatives and industry collaboration.

It took cognizance of the challenging business environment, but was confident of sustainable operation and maintenance activities within Upstream production and Downstream business segments.

Petronas also said Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) would be a catalyst of growth as it was on track for a start-up in 2019.

It said there were opportunities in the PIC, which one of the largest oil and gas industrial developments in this region. It is also Petronas' largest downstream investment to date.

It said PIC was on track for a start-up in 2019 and due to the sheer size, hence the activities weree expected to double once it started operations.

“It is estimated that in the next five to 10 years, the complex itself will spur new urban development with spin-off activities benefitting especially the local communities,” it said 

The report also provided an outlook for upstream and downstream sectors and also the leading indicators for a broad range of activities and its supporting segments.

Most importantly, it said the information would allow for better planning of resources and strategic business decisions among the OGSE players.

Techology would be a game-changer for the industry as oil and gas activities become increasingly complex and expensive. Technology such as robotics, drones and mobile connectivity are being used in frontline operations.

Petronas had also embarked on a global crowdsourcing for innovative technology solutions to solve business challenges.
 
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Corporate News , Oil & Gas


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/12/04/petronas-projects-oil-prices-to-remain-at-us$50-to-us$60-levels/#4KptDGCeH0oBKjyy.99

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Reply #4512 on: December 04, 2017, 09:44:22 PM »



最后更新 2017年12月4日 19时31分
国油预测未来3年 油价徘徊50-60美元

1分享
(吉隆坡4日讯)儘管OPEC及非OPEC產油国达成协议,延长减產至2018年底,但国家石油(Petronas,简称国油)在2018至2020年的《国油活动展望报告》(PETRONAS Activity Outlook,PAO)中预测,国际油价仍將会在每桶50至60美元之间波动。

国油今天发布的《国油活动展望报告》,分享自身对未来3年油气领域前景的看法、需求展望和部署,以提升油气服务及机械领域(OGSE)业者的资讯交流和效率。

国油採购部副总裁三苏丁表示,「踏入2018年,油气业充满不確定因素仍是业內热议的话题,所以行內人士需了解领域走势。」

另外,他说,透过该报告,国油已尝试增加资讯的透明度和令市场恢復稳定,相信能对油气领域的生態环境带来正面的影响。

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另一边厢,该报告也强调了国油最大的下游业项目--边佳兰综合中心(PIC)將带来的商机。目前,PIC的建筑进展符合进度,料在2019年完成,国油相信,该项目未来10年可为周边地区带来巨大经济效益。

展望未来,国油指出,油气领域的相关活动將变得更加困难和昂贵,因此利用新科技和技术將无可厚非,而目前行业前线操作上也採用了如机械人、无人驾驶飞机和流动通讯等科技。

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Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
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