Author Topic: Jim Rogers  (Read 400 times)

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Jim Rogers
« on: November 13, 2015, 07:34:45 AM »


高負債,資金过剩

全球股市或陷熊市

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Jim Rogers
« on: November 13, 2015, 07:34:45 AM »

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Re: Jim Rogers
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2017, 09:15:57 PM »


罗杰斯:长期看好美元
若爆发贸易战就卖美股
28点看 2017年1月23日
 
罗杰斯

(纽约23日讯)著名国际投资专家罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说,若爆发贸易战就卖出美股,但他长期看好美元。


美国总统特朗普在20日宣誓就职之后,引起市场担忧。

罗杰斯对美股后市表示担心,并指:“股市充满乐观气氛。有关特朗普的一切,人们只看好的一面。”不过,没人预料得到特朗普上任后会怎么做,这让罗杰斯最为困扰。

罗杰斯说:“他非常想要一场贸易战,若这真的发生,卖掉美股。”

同时,他也认同,特朗普也可能专注推动他承诺的正面改变,例如减税与放松管制。

然而,不论特朗普怎么做,罗杰斯都看好美元升值,相信美元升势会持续至2018年。


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Re: Jim Rogers
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2017, 07:05:48 AM »



罗杰斯:全球股市年底开始调整
財经发布於 2017年05月12日 • 最后更新 2017年05月12日 21时43分
罗杰斯:全球股市年底开始调整

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(纽约12日讯)国际著名投资者罗杰斯预料全球股市年底开始调整。

罗杰斯接受《彭博》访问时说过去12个月,股市一直很强,预计升势很快会结束。他说考虑到中国目前面对的问题,以及利率会更高,预计全球股市年底开始调整。

罗杰斯又表示, 他持有黄金,但在金价跌穿每安士1000美元之前不会买入。


他又认为无论美国总统特朗普如何出口术试图压低美元,都无法阻止美元匯价上升的大趋势, 尤其是联储局加息的情况下,將促使更多资金流入美国。

罗杰斯又认为,美国联储局不理解全球运行方式,认为联储局不应该將利率降至零,又指於2008年,联储局的资產负债表规模只有8000亿美元,目前已大增至近5兆美元,认为当中很多是「垃圾」。

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Re: Jim Rogers
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2017, 06:18:29 PM »





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Jim Rogers Warns Next Crisis Will Be "Biggest In My Lifetime"

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by Tyler Durden
Jun 9, 2017 4:55 PM
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Billionaire commodity guru Jim Rogers believes the next economic catastrophe is coming. And when it arrives, it’ll be the worst financial calamity the 74-year old investor has ever seen.

Rogers, who discussed his outlook on “The Bottom Line” with Henry Blodget, told the Business Insider founder that the tremendous debt buildup and unreasonably high asset valuations have made the global economy even more vulnerable than it was in 2008, and that the next crash will the "the biggest in my lifetime."



JIM ROGERS: The worst crash in our lifetime is coming
Legendary investor Jim Rogers sat down with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget on this week's episode of The Bottom Line.
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Meanwhile, the spark that ignites the next crisis could be the collapse of a pension fund – or it could be something unforeseen, as Rogers explains below:

“Well, it’s interesting because these things always start where we’re not looking. In 2007, Iceland went broke.
 
People said, ‘Iceland? Is that a country? They have a market?’ And then Ireland went broke. And then Bear Stearns went broke. And Lehman Brothers went broke. They spiral like that.
 
Always happens where we’re not looking. I don’t know. It could be an American pension plan that goes broke and many of them are broke, as you know. It could be some country we’re not watching. It could be all sorts of things. It could be war. Unlikely to be war but it’s going to be something. ”


Central banks, of course, have abetted this behavior through an unprecedented expansion of their balance sheets. Global central banks now have $15.1 trillion worth of assets on their balance sheets, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. The Fed's balance sheet alone has increased five-fold since the crisis, Rogers noted.



China could easily end up being the cradle where the next crisis is nurtured, thanks to the explosive debt growth seen in the world's second-largest economy since the crisis.

“In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now, even the Chinese have debt and the debt is much higher.”
Goldman Sachs tried to calculate China’s real debt load last year, and came up with 250% of GDP. And as Bloomberg reported in April, a rash of bankruptcies are unearthing hidden debt and suggesting that the true debt load in China’s corporate sector is much higher than previously believed.

What can be done once the crisis arrives? The Fed, with interest rates near zero and its balance sheet still swollen at $4.5 trillion, will probably be powerless to mitigate the fallout from the coming crisis, Rogers said. Though that won’t stop it from trying.

“When things start going really bad, people are going to call and say, ‘You must save me. It’s Western civilization. It’s going to collapse.’ And the Fed, who is made up of bureaucrats and politicians, will say, ‘Well, we better do something.’ And they’ll try but it won’t work. It’ll cause some rallies but it won’t work this time.
Springing forth from the financial turmoil, the political turmoil that ensues could topple governments, or lead to the demise of other venerated institutions, be they investment banks or universities.

“You’re going to see institutions that have been around for a long time - Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. Gone. Not even a memory for most people. You’re going to see a lot more of that next around, whether it’s museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms.”
 

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Re: Jim Rogers
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2017, 06:18:29 PM »