Author Topic: COPPER  (Read 1578 times)

Offline king

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COPPER
« on: November 17, 2015, 09:25:09 PM »

Copper dropped 4.6% in

Shanghai mkt.

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2015, 09:26:14 PM »


Fresh cycle

Low since 2009

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2015, 09:30:22 PM »

Fresh cycle

Low since 2009


Below

4600 usd per tonne

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2015, 08:10:11 AM »


hit fresh low of

4444 b4

bounced back to 4500

Offline eye-hub

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2015, 08:18:11 AM »
hmmm...look no good :(
"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2015, 08:28:31 AM »
hmmm...look no good :(

hinting

world economy

look no good lor

Offline eye-hub

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2015, 08:35:46 AM »
yup...what on my mind too
hinting

world economy

look no good lor
"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2016, 07:20:02 AM »



Base metal investors may not be able to wake up from this nightmare
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
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You know it's grim when a sector's primary bull case involves bankruptcy.

Unfortunately for those in the base metals space, "that's the situation we find ourselves in," said Edward Meir, senior commodity analyst with INTL FCStone.

The just-concluded year of 2015 is one that base metals investors will desperately want to forget. Amid a dour environment for commodities overall, these industrial metals were among the hardest hit. Aluminum slid 11 percent, copper was down 24 percent, nickel dropped 42 percent, and precious-metal-with-industrial-uses platinum fell 26 percent. With that in mind, observers warn not to expect much in the way of a reprieve.

The twin problems for the space are a glut of supply and a dramatic slowing of demand, mostly due to a slowing Chinese economy — conditions that are unlikely to change merely because the calendar has turned.


'Hitting the wall'


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Early in 2016, "we can certainly go lower," Meir said in an interview with CNBC. "And then as prices start to come off and you see not just production cutbacks but more companies hitting the wall and more mergers, you might get a revival" in the second half of the year, he said.

"But you need people to hit the wall," Meir added.

Earlier in December, Deutsche Bank metals and mining analyst Jorge Beristain made a similar point in his dramatically titled 2016 outlook note, '"The Hour of Reckoning."

"As demand continues to slow, particularly for main client China, we see deep supply cuts as immediately necessary to balance plunging commodity prices," Beristain wrote at the time.

"As metals and mining producers continue to come under further stock market pressure, we expect further credit rating downgrades, further dividend slashes, dilutive recapitalizations, possible forced equity raises and [mergers] to feature heavily in 2016," he argued. In addition, "outright bankruptcies" are also possible, the analyst added.

While he says that "we still have some ways to go before calling a bottom" in industrial metals prices, Beristain also believes that prices could stabilize in the second half of the year.

On the whole, it may be said the outlook for metals won't get better until it gets way worse — barring, of course, a dramatic China comeback, which is something few are expecting.

"When you have a country that consumes 50 to 80 percent of these metals and which is slowing down sharply, that's a big problem for the bullish story," Meir said.

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2016, 07:20:19 AM »



Copper sinks to lowest since 2009 amid China gloom
6 Hours Ago
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A worker uses a rod at a furnace containing molten liquid copper at the RTB Bor Group copper mining and smelting plant in Bor, Serbia.
Oliver Bunic | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A worker uses a rod at a furnace containing molten liquid copper at the RTB Bor Group copper mining and smelting plant in Bor, Serbia.
Copper prices plummeted on Monday to their lowest in 6-1/2 years as large losses on Chinese equity markets reinforced tarnished prospects for growth and demand in the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded down 1.6 percent at $4,412 a tonne in official rings. The metal used in power and construction earlier touched $4,381, its lowest since May 2009.

Chinese markets have had a rough start to the year, buffeted by the falling yuan, two days of stock exchange suspensions last week and weak factory and service sector activity surveys.

Chinese stocks ended more than 5 percent down after a 10 percent plunge last week, which triggered a global sell-off of riskier assets.

"China's stock market and base metals are reflecting uncertainty about its economy," Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Asa Bridle said.

"Sentiment is the driver, there's no let-up. We can't see anything at the moment that will come to the rescue for metals."

Mounting worries about demand can be seen in a report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, showing money managers with larger bets on lower copper prices.
A report quoting a top state adviser saying China will face great difficulty in achieving growth above 6.5 percent over 2016-2020 added to the gloom.

But analysts say the biggest problem for copper and other base metals is oversupply. Large output cuts by miners are needed to offset slower demand growth in China and move the market back towards balance.

"Although it has fallen some way, copper has thus far been one of the more resilient commodities with the longer-term supply-demand dynamics perhaps more supportive than other metals," Investec analysts said in a note.

"But for now it appears there is no impending shortage and the demand side of the equation appears to continue to underperform."


The Ranger uranium mine in Kakadu National Park, Australia
2015's top metal could see more gains next year
A saleswoman shows gold jewelry in Mumbai, India, in July.
After horror year, hope on horizon for commodities?

Chinese demand for metals ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in February is expected to stay weak.

Three-month aluminium fell 1.5 percent to $1,470 a tonne. The metal, used in transport and packaging, has had some support from New York-listed Alcoa's plans to close an aluminium smelter.

But traders say the amounts are small in an aluminium market estimated at more than 55 million tonnes last year and will do little to erode large surpluses.

Zinc fell 1.7 percent to $1,483 a tonne, lead lost 1 percent to $1,604, tin slipped 0.9 percent to $13,630 and nickel was down 2.2 percent at $8,360.

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 09:52:30 AM »




MoneyDJ理財網新聞首頁最新頭條新聞頭條新聞
新聞內文
看回應看回應 | 寫心得寫心得 | 轉寄轉寄 | 收藏收藏 | 列印列印 |


字級設定: 小 中 大 特
銅價破3個月新高!期銅觸底、新一波牛市蓄勢待發?
回應(0) 人氣(4) 收藏(0) 2016/03/04 09:19
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-04 09:19:23 記者 陳苓 報導
中國減少過剩產能、並有望擴大寬鬆,不只鐵礦砂受惠,銅價也跟著攀升,衝破三個月新高。有分析師認為,期銅或許已經觸底,準備進入新的牛市階段(new bull phase)。
銅價勢如破竹,連日走升。倫敦金屬交易所(LME)報價顯示,週四(3日)期銅收高1.4%,報每噸4,856美元,再創去年11月16日以來新高。週三期銅也上漲1.6%,報每噸4,790美元。
MarketWatch、金融時報(FT)報導,最近幾年銅價一路崩盤,1月份才跌至近七年新低,現在終於回穩。礦商嘉能可(Glencore)高層Ivan Glasenberg表示,原物料價格可能已經觸底,並稱嘉能可在中國銷售強健。今年該公司股價狂漲46%。

不僅如此,LME期銅的淨多單也大增。2月26日為止當週,期銅淨多單增加一倍至20,466口。2月初以來,銅價上漲了5%,鎳價走升4%,鋅價更大漲10%。
Charles Stanley & Co.技術分析師Bill McNamara相當看好銅價,認為銅價線圖為今日的風雲走勢圖。他報告指出,去年五月以來,下行趨勢一直壓抑銅價,近來K線終於衝破下壓力道(線圖見此),倘若期銅真的進入新的牛市階段,14天相對強弱指數(Relative Strength Index,RSI)將有強力上行動能,但是他也警告,須注意當前價格是否遭到超買。
中國鋼鐵業者在努力去化產能的同時,已開始調漲鋼價,鋼價走揚也帶動鐵礦砂價格跳漲。Business Insider 3日報導,Metal Bulletin Ltd.數據顯示,62%品位交付至中國青島港口的鐵礦砂每噸現貨報價2日攀升2.06%、收52.50美元,創去(2015)年10月21日以來新高,過去三個交易日一口氣跳升了8.8%之多。
英國金融時報2月22日報導,摩根士丹利指出,中國營建與基礎建設市況展望轉佳、意外帶動鋼價上揚,是促使鐵礦砂價格跳漲的原因之一。另外,中國鋼廠趕在春、夏旺季之前先行建立庫存,也促使鋼價在2月22日攀升至去年9月新高。南美、澳洲港口運輸遭到干擾,再加上巴西Samarco鐵礦關閉,則使鐵礦砂供需開始緊縮。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2016, 08:13:52 AM »



The Reason For Copper's Dramatic Surge: Chinese Copper Inventories Hit Record
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/04/2016 13:14 -0500

B+ China Copper Shadow Banking


 
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Two weeks ago we reported that one month after China created a record $520 billion in total credit (TSF), through February 18 Chinese banks had followed through with another CNY2 trillion according to MarketNews, meaning that in the first two months of the year China will have created a gargantuan $1 trillion in new credit between loans and unregulated shadow banking issues.



 

A question that emerged is what China is spending all this newly created money on. One answer emerged overnight when Bloomberg reported that after tumbling in the first half of 2015, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had been steadily rising, and in the most recent week soared by 11% to an all time high of 305,106 tons.

At the same time reserves at the London Metals Exchange declined for 11 days to the lowest level in more than a year, in other words China is shifting idle inventory from Point A to Point B.



 

Bloomberg adds that as a result of this massive spending spree, inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are higher than stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange for the first time in a more than a decade.

This explains two things:

for all talk of reform, China is once again building a bubble in excess capacity and stockpiling surplus commodities, which will likely last as long as China floods the economy with newly created bank loans;
The recent surge in the price of copper, which has been a direct function of China's recent massive restocking


 

Most importantly, this means that the world is now back to the "old regime" China, where it was stockpiling massive amounts of inventory as only possible the "use of capital" of trillions in new money created, which of course is precisely the "regime" that created the hard landing scenario that China finds itself in at this very moment.

And so, can kicked. The only question is for how long.

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2016, 04:26:03 PM »



COMMODITY RALLY IS FALSE RALLY, URGE CLIENTS TO SHORT THEM SAYS GOLDMAN
Our Reporter | March 8, 2016
images
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted a rally in commodities from iron ore to gold will falter and forecast copper and aluminum prices will slide as much as 20 percent over the next year.
Any increase in raw material prices will prompt more supplies to enter the market, making it difficult for any advance to be sustained, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report dated March 7. The bank maintained its bearish outlook for gold, said iron ore’s surge would prove temporary and reiterated that oil will fluctuate between $20 and $40 a barrel. Goldman also said it was a good time to make bets that copper and aluminum would decline.

“Higher prices are much harder to sustain in a supply-driven market since supply is primed to return with higher prices,” the analysts wrote in the report. “But this lesson will likely only be learned through false starts.”

Iron ore is the latest raw material to join a commodity rally, soaring the most ever on Monday after Chinese policy makers signaled their willingness to buttress economic growth. The 19 percent jump follows copper’s move back above $5,000 a ton on Friday, while oil rose to the highest since December and gold is at the strongest in a year.
Ore Surge
The unprecedented jump in iron ore was the result of a surge in steel prices before China enters this year’s peak construction season, according to the bank. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao leaped 19 percent to $63.74 a dry metric ton on Monday, Metal Bulletin Ltd. data show. That’s the biggest gain in daily data going back to 2009 and the highest price since June.
“The physical shortfall in steel supply can be filled easily and the subsequent deterioration in steel margins is likely to put iron ore prices under renewed pressure,” the analysts wrote, maintaining a year-end price target of $35 a ton. “The market fundamentals are unchanged and the current rally is only a brief lull before production cuts at high cost mines are required to make room for low-cost producers.”
While a drop in the U.S. dollar, Chinese data pointing to a surge in new credit to a record in January as well as the gain in oil prices probably drove a metals rally in 2016, the “structural bear market drivers” that contributed to a collapse over the past 5 years remain intact, the bank said in a separate report dated March 7.
Shorting Copper
“With prices rising significantly, and with the structural case for base metals remaining very poor we recommend producers and investors with longer-term horizons begin implementing hedging strategies and consider short positions in copper and aluminium over the coming month,” analysts including Max Layton wrote in the report.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange was at $4,946.50 a metric ton by 3:41 p.m. in Singapore, up about 14 percent from a low in mid-January. Aluminum was at $1,593 a ton, up about 10 percent since Jan. 12.
In Goldman’s 12-month view, copper may drop to $4,000 a ton and aluminum will probably slide to $1,350. Deleveraging in China and emerging markets, further dollar strength, mining cost deflation and strong supply growth, particularly in copper because of a prior boom in capital expenditure, are set to keep “capex-heavy” metals prices under pressure over the coming year, the bank said.
“Overall we find that the likelihood of a sustained improvement in Chinese demand during 2016/17 is low,” Goldman said.
Oil Glut
Meanwhile, the current oil market is still oversupplied and prices have to remain lower for supplies to meaningfully shrink and re-balancing to take place, Goldman said. “Only a real physical deficit can create a sustainable rally which is still months away should the behavioral shifts created by the low prices in January and February remain in place,” the bank said.
Goldman also stood by its recommendation to short gold and said U.S. data will likely reinforce a stronger dollar, which will drag down prices toward its near-term target of $1,100 an ounce. Spot bullion was 0.4 percent higher at $1,272.05 an ounce on Tuesday

Offline king

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2016, 06:04:47 AM »


Copper Continues To Crumble Amid Record China Inventories
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2016 17:30 -0400

China Copper


 
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Having bounced miraculously off the early January lows - despite no significant fundamental shift - scrambling all the weay up to its 200-day moving-average, copper prices have been tumbling for the last 7 days, the longest losing streak since early Jan. "Worries over Chinese demand is still weighing on the market," warns one analyst and rightly so as, just like the oil complex, copper inventories (in China) just hit a record high.

Miracle ramp...



 

Is fading now as stockpiles soar...




 

Rising supply of late-cycle commodities, including copper and aluminum, together with uncertain Chinese demand may continue to weigh on metal prices this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Zhu Yi. Copper inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at a record.

“Worries over Chinese demand is still weighing on the market,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London, said by phone.



 

Of course much of this 'inventory' is collateral for China's crazy CCFDs enabling smaller players to get loans and stay alive considerably longer than they should. If any liquidation occurs of these zombies then prices will accelerate lower as CCFDs are unwound.

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2016, 06:04:46 AM »



Brace for big commodities drop, traders warn
Leanne Miller   | Alex Rosenberg
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After a great few weeks for the commodities trade, it's now time to get out, some strategists say.

The commodities trade is "not only being hit cyclically, but it's also being hit fundamentally, so I would expect a decline over the next month," Phillip Streible of RJO Futures said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
Strong gains across oil, copper, gold and other commodities have made for a very profitable month for bulls. In fact, March was the first positive month for the S&P GSCI total return commodities index since October, and the best March since 2006.
But Streible said that after riding recent gains, traders are repositioning more defensively as the Federal Reserve readjusts to a more dovish stance.
"We saw a lot of profit-taking come in in the first day of the [second] quarter," said Streible. "We've seen a lot of anticipation that the Fed will go on that two-hike cycle."
And from a technical perspective, commodities such as oil and copper have merely enjoyed a minor bounce in the midst of a long-term downtrend, Streible said.


Meanwhile, in the near term, "if you look at the peak that's in place, we're starting to decline," the trader said. "Strength to the downside is building."

Trouble in commodities could, in turn, cause trouble for the materials sector.
S&P Investment Advisory chief investment officer Erin Gibbs says the materials sector could see significant downside sparked by oil weakness, stabilization in the dollar and the expectation of a weak earnings season ahead.
Over the past year, the daily moves of the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) have had a 0.5 correlation with the commodity index, a bit higher than the 0.4 correlation between the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and commodities.
The biggest problem, however, could be earnings. In the second quarter, materials companies are expected to suffer an earnings drop of 7 percent, according to data from S&P, which Gibbs views as another reason to shy from the names.

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2017, 10:49:25 AM »



Copper, barometer of global economy, posts worst drop in 19 months on China growth worries
Copper futures for July delivery settled 3.49 percent lower for the worst decline since September 2015.
Manufacturing data in China came in weaker than expected this week.
China is the world's largest consumer of copper.
Evelyn Cheng   | @chengevelyn
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A copper factory in Nantong, China.
VCG | Getty Images
A copper factory in Nantong, China.
Copper prices dropped Wednesday the most in 19 months after a jump in inventories increased worries about an economic slowdown in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal.

Copper futures for July delivery settled 3.49 percent lower at $2.5435 a pound, below their 50-day moving average for the first time since April 6 and their worst drop since September 2015. Prices of the metal continued falling in extended trade to near $2.53 a pound.

"I think the biggest thing is the worries about China," said Ryan McKay, associate commodities strategist at TD Securities.

"First we had a large build in LME copper stocks today, adding concern to the already elevated inventory levels," McKay said. "Also manufacturing data from China this week has come in below expectations, raising concerns around Chinese demand."

Copper performance so far this week



Source: FactSet

On-warrant inventories available for delivery at LME-registered warehouses increased by 38,950 tonnes, or 32 percent, to 160,200 tonnes, the highest since mid-April, according to Reuters.

Late Monday Eastern Time, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI, a key survey for the Chinese economy, for April showed a greater-than-expected decline to 50.3, the lowest since September 2016.

Copper is a key material used in home construction, industrial manufacturing and consumer goods around the world. The Chinese government injected large amounts of loans last year in an attempt to prevent a sharp slowdown in the world's second largest economy. While recent economic reports have improved, the stimulus has also slowed.

For copper, "demand conditions are still good, just not as good they were three to six months ago," said Dane Davis, commodities research analyst at Barclays. "The stimulus is wearing off and it's starting to feed through in real prices, particularly copper and iron ore."

Iron ore futures fell more than 6.5 percent Wednesday.

Earlier in the week, copper prices leaped to their highest in nearly a month. Traders expected prices to rise given a planned month-long strike at Freeport-McMoran's Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

— CNBC's Gina Francolla and Reuters contributed to this report.

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Re: COPPER
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2017, 07:54:26 AM »



金银铜镍纷纷下跌 布伦特原油跌破50美元
财经发布于 2017年05月5日 • 最后更新 11 hours ago
金银铜镍纷纷下跌 布伦特原油跌破50美元

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(纽约5日讯)大宗商品市场继续遭遇抛售,金价创今年来最大两日跌幅,白银连续13天下跌,期铜出现2015年7月以来最大的两日跌幅,德州西部中级原油(WTI)期货跌穿每桶45美元,布伦特原油也跌破每桶50美元。

WTI吐回OPEC减产协议以来的全部涨幅,隔夜下跌2.30美元,收于45.52美元,是11月下旬以来的最低水平。但是,今天在亚洲盘WTI一度跌破每桶45美元,是11月29日首见。同时,布伦特原油7月期货隔夜下跌2.41美元,报48.38美元。

亚洲市场今天尾盘交易,布伦特原油和WTI分别报每桶48.30美元和45.31美元。


截至5月20日的4周,OPEC每日出口量将增加9万桶,油价也因中国需求料将下滑而走低。Interfax Energy Gas Analytics分析师古玛尔(AbhishekKumar)说:「OPEC预料会再维持生产上限半年,非OPEC跟进就很难说,美国石油生产持续成长,OPEC明年难继续减产。」