Author Topic: IRON ORE  (Read 1396 times)

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IRON ORE
« on: December 01, 2015, 05:56:48 AM »


Iron ore plunged below

40USD per tonne.


1st time since 2009

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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2016, 02:13:28 PM »




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鐵礦砂價飆27%!陸瘋狂放貸創回春假象、底部還沒到?
回應(0) 人氣(247) 收藏(0) 2016/02/22 12:13
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-22 12:13:50 記者 陳苓 報導
鐵礦砂鹹魚翻身,上週價格飆漲10%以上,創下半年最大漲幅,是否表示已經打出底部?財經部落格The Daily Reckoning悲觀以對,認為這是中國瘋狂放貸製造出的短期榮景,頂多只能持續幾個月。
巴倫財經網站22日報導,中國鐵礦砂價格大漲4.7%、至每噸人民幣365元(約56美元),為去年9月以來新高。
Business Insider報導,Metal Bulletin數據顯示,62%品位交付至中國青島港口的鐵礦砂,上週五(19日)現貨報價上漲2.93%,至每噸48.52美元,為去年11月11日以來新高。上週週線攀漲達11.2%,為2015年7月以來最大週線漲幅。和去年12月低點的38.30美元相比,鐵礦砂價格飆漲了26.7%。

Metal Bulletin指出,價格回溫主因中國鋼價上漲。《澳洲金融報》(Australia Financial Review)樂觀預估,鐵礦砂價格意外攀升,澳洲稅收可能大增。中國鋼鐵業在農曆春節過後增加產出,未來幾個月全球鐵礦砂需求或將大幅成長。
The Daily Reckoning對此不以為然。部落格指出,鐵礦砂價格提高,是因中國1月新增貸款暴衝,達5,250億美元,創下空前新高。金融時報記者Simon Rabinovitch說,中國1月放貸總額足以打造出全球第27大經濟體。
銀行追著政府、企業放貸,刺激需求,要是資金繼續流向不具生產力的企業,漲勢無法持續太久。鋼鐵業產能嚴重過剩,唯一的解決辦法是低價淘汰多餘產能,當前好景難以持續。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2016, 12:51:50 PM »



IRON ORE JUMPS MOST ON RECORD AS MARKET GOES ‘BERSERK’ ON BEIJING SIGNAL
Our Reporter | March 8, 2016
imagesC53BLAYT
Iron ore soared the most ever after Chinese policy makers signaled their willingness to buttress economic growth, boosting the outlook for steel consumption in the top user and igniting speculation that some investors who’d bet against the market had been caught out.

Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao jumped 19 percent to $63.74 a dry metric ton, Metal Bulletin Ltd. data show. That’s the biggest gain in daily data going back to 2009 and the highest price since June. The surge was preceded in Asia by a rally in futures, with the most-active contract on Singapore Exchange Ltd. climbing 21 percent to $60 and prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rising by the daily limit.

The iron ore and steel markets have gone berserk — they’ve departed from fundamentals and are heavily driven by sentiment,” Zhao Chaoyue, an analyst at China Merchants Futures Co. in Shenzhen, said before the Metal Bulletin price was published. “Investors are expecting further monetary easing by the Chinese government to boost steel demand.”

The move sparked a rally in producer shares. Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. jumped 24 percent in Sydney trading, where Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. also climbed after futures prices jumped. Rio, the second-biggest mining company, rose 5 percent to close at the highest in three months in London, while BHP gained 3.5 percent in U.K. trading.

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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2016, 06:59:09 AM »



Iron ore’s rocket rise isn’t sustainable, Goldman, others say

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Mar 8, 2016 1:58 p.m. ET

     5 
Commerzbank expects iron-ore prices will end this year at $45 per metric ton, Goldman’s target is $35 per ton
Shutterstock
Iron ore mining operations Pilbara region Western Australia.
The price of what some would call the most vital spoke in the commodity wheel has gained nearly 50% this year so far, but on Tuesday analysts and strategists warned that the iron-ore rally could be fleeting.

According to the Platts IODEX, the metal’s price was at $62 per dry metric ton Tuesday, off about $2.20 from Monday, when prices soared by 20%.

Fueled in part by optimism after the National People’s Congress in China set growth targets over the weekend, iron ore sprinted past $60 a ton Monday, a level not seen since mid 2015 and the largest one-day percentage gain on record. The industrial metal offers a key ingredient used to make steel, which is found in everything from ships to infrastructure.


“The rally in iron ore prices was the result of a surge in steel prices needed to widen mill margins in order to incentivize operators to pay the restart costs and rebuild operating inventories of raw materials as China enters this year’s peak construction season,” explained Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs’s global head of commodities, in a note dated March 7.

But he said that would provide only a temporary lift for iron ore, with steel supply ample and subsequent deterioration in steel margins expected to put prices under pressure again. In other words, investors are seeing a “brief lull before production cuts at high-cost mines are required to make room for low-cost producers,” said Currie.


Iron ore’s rise and rise this year
Iron-ore prices above $60 are simply “not sustainable,” said Eugen Weinberg and other analysts at Commerzbank, in a note to clients on Wednesday. “We believe the pronounced and sudden price rise to be exaggerated given that there will be no change to the ample supply situation on the seaborne iron-ore market,” they said.

Iron ore is getting a tailwind from “recovering Chinese steel prices that have soared by around 34% versus their December low,” Commerzbank said. And that has encouraged and could continue to encourage Chinese steel manufacturers to produce more, though the country is also planning major cutbacks in the industry, Commerzbank said.

As for bountiful supply, Commerzbank pointed to Australia, where iron-ore exports are expected to increase by 13.2% this year versus 2015 to 868 million tons on the seaborne market, partly due to the commissioning of the Roy Hill mine in western Australia’s Pilbara region. The seaborne market can also be referred to as the spot-market trade for iron ore—for which China is the largest consumer of this raw material, according to Joseph Innace at Platts.

Brazil is likely to increase exports by 7.4% this year from last, to 392 million tons, said Commerzbank, citing a report published by Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. “In absolute terms, Australia and Brazil will thus be making 128 million tons more iron ore available to the seaborne iron-ore market in 2016 than in 2015,” said Weinberg and his team.

Adding to that is the prediction that China iron-ore imports will grow by a hardly insignificant 2.3% this year—21 million to 951 million tons even as the country is set to make cutbacks in the industry, the analysts said.

BHP Billiton PLC BHP, -8.78% BLT, -8.51% whose shares are up 13% so far in March, is among the low-cost producers that plans to amp up its iron-ore production out of Australia this fiscal year, said Commerbank analysts.

And Vale VALE, -13.98% shares of which have surged 36% this month, and Rio Tinto RIO, -9.30% up 7.2%, RIO, -9.43% RIO, -2.60%  continue to gain market share in the country. Stepping up supply on the back of low production costs “appears to be having the desired effect. This is because production costs in China are relatively high and ore grades are low,” said Commerzbank.

Commerzbank, said it expects iron-ore prices will end this year at $45 per ton, while Goldman has set a target of $35 per ton

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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2016, 11:29:42 AM »




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鐵礦砂反彈行情結束?BHP看空、陸交易所出招降溫
回應(0) 人氣(297) 收藏(0) 2016/03/16 09:34
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-16 09:34:57 記者 賴宏昌 報導
Thomson Reuters報導,必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)執行長Andrew Mackenzie 16日在墨爾本一場研討會上表示,供給過剩將導致鐵礦砂報價低於目前水準、預估將會在更長的時間內處於低檔。他說,BHP看空鐵礦砂報價的程度更勝旗下其他原物料。
鐵礦砂報價在上週一(3月7日)創下史上最大單日漲幅(19.5%)。鋼鐵指數公司(The Steel Index;TSI)報價顯示,鐵礦砂現貨基準報價14日下跌1.1%至55.50美元/噸、連續第4個交易日走低。
必和必拓ADR 15日大跌6.85%、收25.01美元,連續第2天收低、創3月1日以來收盤新低;今年迄今下跌2.91%。

大連商品交易所3月10日表示,針對近期鐵礦砂價格波動較大、成交持倉比(換手率)較高的情況,交易所採取了提高鐵礦砂期貨合約漲跌停板幅度、提高最低交易保證金及於14日起取消當日開平倉手續費優惠的舉措,目的是提高市場抗風險能力、及早防範交易過熱、防控潛在市場風險,確保市場安全穩健運行和功能發揮。
大連商品交易所9日公告,根據《大連商品交易所風險管理辦法》,經研究決定,2016年3月9日結算時起將鐵礦砂品種漲跌停板幅度調整至6%(註:原為5%)、最低交易保證金標準調整至7%(原為6%)。
《Business Insider》10日報導,西太平洋銀行(Westpac)市場策略部主管Robert Rennie指出,大連商品交易所鐵礦砂期貨約當交易量(9.77億噸)9日創下2013年底開始交易以來的單日歷史新高,特別值得注意的是截至2月為止的12個月期間中國進口鐵礦砂累計數量也不過才9.626億噸。
2016年1-2月中國粗鋼產量年減5.7%、鋼材產量年減2.1%。中國國家統計局統計顯示,2015年全國粗鋼產量年減年減2.3%至8.0383億噸、1981年以來首見年減。人民網11日報導,河北省省長張慶偉表示,到2020年河北省鋼鐵產能要壓減到2億噸以內。他表示,這意味著有60%的鋼鐵企業要關閉、整合。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2016, 04:39:28 PM »



果然曇花一現?新加坡鐵礦砂期貨失守50美元
回應(0) 人氣(253) 收藏(0) 2016/03/24 15:01
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-24 15:01:19 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
鐵礦砂期貨周四盤中報價再度跌破50美元,讓始終唱衰鐵礦砂行情維持不久的高盛稍稍獲得平反。

據美國媒體報導,新加坡交易所之鐵礦砂報價盤中最多重挫5.8%至每噸49.9美元,在此同時,大連商品交易所之鐵礦砂報價亦同步重挫5.1%。

鐵礦砂今年從谷底翻升一路飆漲,與實體經濟嚴重背離,多有人以中國供給側改革發威做解釋,但邏輯卻說不通,明明是去化鋼鐵產能何以能成為利多,以致讓高盛不改其志,堅持看空鐵礦砂展望。就連主要鐵礦砂供應商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)近期亦對鐵礦砂這波漲勢感到心虛。

另外,美元本週回到升值軌道上,也讓無基本面支撐的鐵礦砂搖搖欲墜。聯準會(FED)官員接二連三對4月升息表態,使得追蹤一籃子貨幣的美元指數本週迄今走揚逾1個百分點。

交付至青島含鐵量62%的鐵礦砂現貨價格周三收跌0.8%至57.87美元,對照3月7日的波段高點63.74美元,近兩週累計拉回9.2%


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2016, 02:11:29 PM »



漲太快的後果?陸鐵礦砂連六跌 一口氣摜破55美元
回應(0) 人氣(331) 收藏(0) 2016/03/31 11:07
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-31 11:07:31 記者 郭妍希 報導
鐵礦砂今(2016)年年初的飆漲走勢恐怕僅是曇花一現。Business Insider 30日報導,Metal Bulletin報價顯示,Metal Bulletin Ltd.數據顯示,62%品位交付至中國青島港口的鐵礦砂每噸現貨報價3月30日下跌93美分至54.18美元,已連續第6個交易日走軟。
自3月21日展開跌勢以來,鐵礦砂共計回跌了7.9%。不過,年初迄今的漲幅仍有24.4%。
外電31日報導,顧問機構麥肯錫(McKinsey & Co.)就認為,鐵礦砂或許會重新跌回每噸45美元、預估今年價格會在45-50美元之間區間震盪,理由是中國房地產最近一波的反彈恐怕無法提振營建需求,而供給也依舊相當充裕。

The Australian Financial Review、The Guardian等多家外電報導,高盛3月初就堅持唱衰,認為鐵礦砂的漲勢恐怕難續,因為中國的鋼鐵需求並無明顯改善。該證券指稱,自從全球供給過剩、中國鋼鐵需求疲弱導致鐵礦砂價格崩盤後,基本面至今仍無變化。
高盛預期當前的鐵礦砂漲勢將相當短暫,預估鋼鐵的原料市況會再度成為左右鋼價的要素、而不是反過來由鋼價帶頭。該證券並預估,鐵礦砂價格會在今年第4季跌回每噸35美元。
英國金融時報2月22日報導,澳盛銀行當時也認為,鐵礦砂漲勢恐怕並不久長,預估價格很快就會跌到每噸40美元以下。澳盛指出,鐵礦砂市況逆風多、難以迴避,不但中國房地產對鋼鐵的需求依舊疲弱,願意減產的廠商也不多,目前中國鋼鐵產出只較過去幾年的高峰減少3%。


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2016, 05:53:03 PM »



供給過剩!中國港口鐵礦砂庫存逼近一年新高
回應(0) 人氣(227) 收藏(0) 2016/04/06 15:02
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-06 15:02:19 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
鐵礦砂周三盤中交投清淡,報價則是搖搖欲墜,這一方面是受供給持續增加影響,另一方面是大陸港邊庫存來到今年新高,使得市場供過於求疑慮再次加重

據路透社報導,澳盛投資銀行分析師指出,海運鐵礦砂供給有增加趨勢,若需求未即時跟上,預料未來幾週大陸港口將堆滿鐵礦砂庫存。澳洲最大散裝航運碼頭黑德蘭港(Port Hedland)三月出口鐵礦砂3,950萬噸,其中運往中國占3,259萬噸,較二月跳增11.8%。

在此同時,顧問公司SteelHome追蹤數據顯示,截至4月1日止,大陸主要港口鐵礦砂庫存來到9,700萬噸,創下去年4月底以來的新高。

話說中國經濟持續降溫,但年初時鐵礦砂卻一度鹹魚翻身,與實體經濟嚴重背離。此前有人以中國供給側改革發威做解釋,但卻自相矛盾,因為供給側改革目的明明是去化鋼鐵產能、降低對鐵礦砂需求,如此何以能成為利多,由此可知鐵礦砂反彈注定好是曇花一現。

大連商品交易所鐵礦砂期貨周三盤中下跌0.5個百分點、暫報每噸376.5人民幣或相當於58美元;新加坡交易所鐵礦砂期貨同步下跌0.7%至50.8美元


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2016, 06:52:29 AM »
Iron ore price set to sink below US$50 a tonne ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.fool.com.au/2016/05/26/iron-ore-price-set-to-sink-below-us50-a-tonne/

Goldman warns on swelling iron ore surplus as miners add supply ~ 27 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-27/goldman-warns-on-iron-ore-surplus-as-price-sinks-back-below-50


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2016, 08:38:59 AM »
head and shoulder :sweat:
Iron ore price set to sink below US$50 a tonne ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.fool.com.au/2016/05/26/iron-ore-price-set-to-sink-below-us50-a-tonne/

Goldman warns on swelling iron ore surplus as miners add supply ~ 27 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-27/goldman-warns-on-iron-ore-surplus-as-price-sinks-back-below-50


"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2016, 07:27:36 PM »



原油活了、換鐵礦砂掛了!恐跌破40美元、隨鋼價同悲
回應(0) 人氣(1423) 收藏(0) 2016/05/27 12:37
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-05-27 12:37:55 記者 陳苓 報導
原油和鐵礦砂兩樣情!原油報喜,26日一度突破50美元,鐵礦砂則恰恰相反,當日跌破50美元,摔至2月新低。高盛悲觀預測,今年底鐵礦砂將跌破40美元,未來兩年恐怕都在35美元左右徘徊。
Business Insider和路透社報導,Metal Bulletin報價顯示,62%品位交付至中國青島港口的鐵礦砂現貨價,26日下挫1.84%至每噸49.48美元,為2月29日以來首度跌破50美元大關。4月21日起跌以來,鐵礦砂累跌29.8%。
高盛分析師Christian Lelong和Amber Cai報告指出,先前鋼鐵業獲利短暫改善,導致過多鋼鐵廠重啟產能,造成鋼鐵供給過剩。如果沒有意外,今年下半鋼鐵需求將下滑,一如以往的歷史趨勢。澳洲礦商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)估計,年初以來中國約有5,000萬噸的鋼鐵產能,重新投入生產。鐵礦砂礦商增產之際、鋼鐵卻需求低迷,高盛因而看壞鐵礦砂前景,認為供給壓力再起。

年初鋼價大漲,帶動鐵礦砂價格攀升,不過如今上海鋼鐵期貨價格已從4月高點重挫30%,鐵礦砂跟著崩盤,一個月前鐵礦砂年線還暴衝61.7%,現在漲幅只剩13.6%。
鐵礦砂需求不振,港口庫存創下新高,礦商還將提高海運量,情勢雪上加霜。Thomson Reuters 23日報導,根據產業諮詢機構鋼之家的統計,5月20日中國主要港口進口鐵礦砂庫存量較前一週上揚1.6%至1.0045億噸、創2015年3月以來新高。全球第三大鐵礦砂生產商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)預期今年海運供給量將新增3千萬噸。
白宮主管國際經濟的國家安全顧問副手Wally Adeyemo 5月19日在記者會上表示,七大工業國(G7)領袖在日本召開峰會時將討論減少全球工業產能過剩的實際行動方案、特別是針對當前鋼鐵產能過剩問題。他說,G7領袖將擬定一致的行動綱領、藉此影響那些該為基本金屬過剩產能負責的國家。美國商務部甫於5月17日宣布將對進口自中國的冷軋扁鋼課徵高達522%的反傾銷關稅。這意味著中國製的冷軋扁鋼售價將因而提高逾五倍。


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Re: IRON ORE
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2016, 11:28:46 AM »



高盛警告全球供过于求 铁价恐跌破40美元
国际新闻 头条 国际  2016-05-29 07:56

 
(纽约28日讯)高盛集团警告称,由于铁矿企业提高产量,而中国产钢量放缓,全球铁矿石市场供过于求状况将更加严重。
该行预计,随着铁矿石库存增加,价格可能会跌破每吨40美元(约160令吉)。
高盛分析员在周五的报告中表示:“我们预计海运铁矿石供应增加,将推动港口库存增长,随着2016年下半年新的铁矿石产能增加,以及中国需求下降,库存必将继续增长。”
基准铁矿石价格周四跌破50美元(约200令吉),创下2月份以来最低水平,投资者担忧中国钢厂利润率再度滑坡,在铁矿石企业增加供应之际,再度伤及需求前景