Author Topic: S&P 500 Index Movements  (Read 631339 times)

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #250 on: February 25, 2016, 08:47:46 PM »



This is 'the best year to sell rallies ever’: Trader
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
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The S&P 500 may have rebounded considerably from the lows hit two weeks prior, but the bulls shouldn't become too excited yet, according to macroeconomic trader and strategist Boris Schlossberg.

"I continue to think this year is going to be the best year to sell rallies ever," Schlossberg said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "Every rally is going to be a fake out."

After several great years for stocks and a flat 2015, "the chickens are coming home to roost," he said.

First of all, the stock market "is just due" for a poor year after all the good times, BK Asset Management's chief FX strategist told CNBC in a phone interview.

On top of that, U.S. profits have fallen, and Schlossberg sees them dropping even further due to slow demand growth. "The transmission mechanism from jobs to wages to spending is simply not taking place," he said.

Read MoreThese 5 stocks are strictly for the bulls
And that's even before one considers the many global risk factors, which most notably include dramatically slowing economic growth in China.

"It all just puts us in a pretty vulnerable position, as far as equities go," Schlossberg said. "Whatever hope we have is going to be extinguished by the end of the year."

However, Stifel Nicolaus portfolio manager Chad Morganlander takes the other side. Morganlander believes that the market has begun to price in slowing global growth, meaning that there may be some values in equities.

"At this point we would start layering on risk," he said Wednesday on CNBC. "Valuations are starting to make sense."

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #251 on: February 25, 2016, 08:56:55 PM »



Opinion: ‘Smart-beta’ investing guru is now warning of a crash

By Brett Arends
Published: Feb 25, 2016 5:13 a.m. ET

     4 
Rob Arnott says the popular strategy has become too popular

Dump “quality” stocks and buy “value” stocks.

That’s the call from Rob Arnott, the legendary financial guru and chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif.

He says stocks bearing high-quality characteristics — such as high profits, strong balance sheets and so on — have now become far too expensive in relation to the rest of the stock market.


Meanwhile, so-called “value” stocks — which generally mean boring companies that have low future growth prospects but are cheap in relation to current profits and dividends — are at one of their biggest discounts in modern history

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #252 on: February 26, 2016, 05:01:20 AM »



+20

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #253 on: February 26, 2016, 05:48:13 AM »



1951.7

+21.9

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #254 on: February 26, 2016, 06:44:24 AM »



Here Is The Reason For The Sudden Buying Spree
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2016 14:09 -0500

Crude Crude Oil POMO POMO


 
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Deja vu all over again.  Just as we saw after yesterday's "glitch" in POMO unleashed a huge short-squeeze buying rampage, so today's "technical issue"-delayed 7Y Auction has sparked panic-buying in stocks.

Recall what we said less than an hours ago and moments after the Treasury announcement that today's 7Y auction was rescheduled:

What is more stunning is that just like yesterday's POMO cancellation at 11:15am  sent yields surging, so today's announcement has likewise pushed yields higher and stocks promptly followed.
 
Has the Fed/Treasury complex found a new way to manipulate markets: with the market delta hedging ahead of a POMO or auction, authorities yank the carpet from underneath everyone, and force a scramble to sell positions into the auction, pushing yields higher and unleashing a scramble into risk assets?
 
Keep an eye on the market: if stocks surge as a result of this unprecedented two-peat, we will have our answer.
Less than an hour later we have the answer: the entire US equity market (and crude oil) has surged as "Most Shorted" stocks get face-ripped

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #255 on: February 26, 2016, 06:46:06 AM »



Intraday Market Rescue Team Most Active Since 2011
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2016 14:55 -0500

Citadel


 
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It appears that whenever downsides to The Fed's "wealth creation" mandate begin to appear, something strange happens in the stock market...

The frequency of v-shaped recoveris intraday in recent weeks has risen significantly. In an effort to quantify this, we measure the average rise from intraday lows to the cash close on the S&P 500...



h/t MacroMan

This admittedly  raw indicator does seem to peak every time we get a crisis occurrence - and is currently at its highest since the US downgrade in 2011 as it appears 'someone' is more than willing to lift stocks off the lows each and every day.

Of course, this is just crazy conspirascy talk.. correlation of events is not causation, but where there is manipulative smoke, we just there is NYFed (via Citadel) buying fire.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #256 on: February 26, 2016, 06:53:23 AM »

Tom DeMark Warns If The S&P Closes Below This Level, It Could "Wreak Havoc To The Downside"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2016 15:02 -0500



 
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The S&P 500 is three trading days from reaching "trend exhaustion," according to infamous technical analyst Tom DeMark. "The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect," warns DeMark, noting that if the market closes below these key levels in the next three days, DeMark warns "the decline is going to be sharp."



 

As Bloomberg reports, a top in the S&P 500 would also be confirmed should the S&P 500 finish below 1,926.82 on Tuesday, or close less than 1,917 on Wednesday or Thursday, DeMark said.

If any of those S&P 500 triggers occur, the benchmark index will decline at least 8.2 percent from Monday’s close to 1,786, a level last seen in February 2014, according to DeMark. Should the market top correspond with what he referred to as “bad news,” the S&P 500 could see deeper selling down to 1,736, an 11 percent decline. DeMark sees the ongoing market rally as temporary relief as investors exit short positions.
 
“We’ve seen some pretty vicious short-covering come in, which has caused the market to move up,” said DeMark. “When that happens, it really plays havoc with the market once the downside move begins.”
 
“The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect,” DeMark, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in a phone interview. “The temporary buying produces a price vacuum beneath the market and accelerates the subsequent decline. The decline is going to be sharp.”
*  *  *

A handful of chart-based calls by DeMark have looked prescient in recent weeks, including a prediction on Feb. 11 that oil would rally and a Jan. 20 forecast for a temporary bottom in the S&P 500. And traders pay close attention to the levels he suggests


Why Tom DeMark is predicting an ugly fall for the S&P 500 in March
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Feb 25, 2016 5:04 p.m. ET

     12 
Market-timer Tom McClellan also sees a rough spring ahead
DeMark Analytics
Tom DeMark sees an ugly future for the S&P 500.
The worst isn’t over for Wall Street stocks. That is at least how respected chart-watcher Tom DeMark sees things possibly unfolding as investors get ready to close the book on February and head into March.

DeMark, who founded his eponymously named data analytics firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., is predicting that stocks are in for a big fall.

That’s highlighted in his view of the S&P 500 SPX, +1.13% which he sees dropping 8% to 10% from current level to around 1,786. The broad stock-market benchmark could tumble to 1,733, if things get really ugly, he said. His gloomy call was briefly highlighted by MarketWatch’s Victor Reklaitis on Wednesday.

On Thursday, DeMark told MarketWatch that he was “confident” this bearish scenario had a good chance of playing out, even as the global stock market was looking buoyant, shrugging off a 6.4% slide in China’s Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -6.41%

“I’m pretty confident even though 90% of the stock market has already bottomed,” DeMark said. He has attributed the recent rally to traders unwinding bets that the market will fall further rather than genuine wagers on a long-term increase in stock and index values.

Why put any faith in DeMark’s prognostications? Because a number of his recent calls on equities have been dead accurate.

DeMark called for a rally in oil on Feb. 11 and signaled that the S&P 500 had notched a short-term bottom on Jan. 20. And last August, his forecast that China’s markets were headed for a further slide also proved correct. His predictions have garnered him a certain amount of celebrity status on Wall Street, where he advises the likes of hedge-fund luminaries George Soros, Stevie Cohen and a host of other financial hotshots.

Broadly speaking, DeMark employs a so-called momentum formula that compares closing levels of the S&P with those from four days earlier among other complex indicators to make his determinations. At least that is part of his complicated secret sauce.

As for his gloomy forecast for stocks, DeMark points to eerie similarities between moves now and in earlier periods. DeMark pointed to past moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.29% compared with recent action to support that point.

Explaining his view on CNBC late Wednesday, he focused on three charts that underpin his outlook. The first of the charts below shows the similarities between moves by the blue-chip index back in 1980 when stocks were rocked by the fallout from Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt’s inability to meet margin calls on an ill-fated attempt to corner prices on the silver-futures SIH6, -1.03%  market. The wealthy brothers faced a gargantuan loss, and fears that it might spill over from Wall Street to Main Street unsettled stocks.

DeMark says the Dow’s moves since October of last year to now are nearly identical, as the following chart shows:


“What we are trying to do is compare the current market with prior periods,” he told CNBC.

DeMark also sees a similar theme in comparing market moves in 2007-2009 with now, as the following chart shows:


In his third “most important” chart, DeMark predicted a test of the recent intraday lows in a pattern similar to what played out in 2011 when equities were roiled by the European debt crisis:


DeMark said Friday could be a critical day for the markets and a point at which he and his team will reassess his call. Here’s his full interview with CNBC:


But DeMark told MarketWatch that the next two or three weeks is probably a better range of when this slump might take hold.

“If [the market doesn’t fall ] in the next two or three weeks, we’ll have to rethink [the scenario],” he said.

DeMark views himself as a market timer looking to identify trends and bristles at being called a market technician. “We’re trend anticipators, we don’t track trends,” he told MarketWatch, explaining the distinction. Market timers are viewed as those who attempt to call tops and bottoms in an asset to determine the best entry and exit points.

To those who don’t put a lot of credence in chart watchers, DeMark says this: “It’s still better than guessing.”

A late-Thursday rally in crude-oil prices as talk of a March meeting of major oil producers to stabilize oil prices CLJ6, +2.89%  might complicate matters for DeMark. Stocks have followed prices of crude like a sick puppy lately.

But DeMark isn’t the only chart-watching guru predicting an ugly March and April. Another prominent market timer, Tom McClellan, is forecasting a rough start to spring in a recent newsletter:

“Right now, ‘the plan’ is for a sizable down move during the month of March, leading to a bottom due the first week of April, according to The McClellan Market Report published at the close of Tuesday trading. Here’s an excerpt:

The stock market is topping out now after a countertrend rally, and ahead lies an ugly March. That weakness should accelerate after a top due March 1-4, and should culminate in a bottom due the first week of April. At that point, expect to hear everyone talking about how this is 2008 all over again, which it is not

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #257 on: February 26, 2016, 10:02:17 AM »




字級設定: 小 中 大 特
反彈是空方減碼?線型大師:標普沒凍頭、將再跌10%
回應(0) 人氣(249) 收藏(0) 2016/02/26 08:17
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-26 08:17:08 記者 陳苓 報導
美股不甩陸股慘摔,展翅高飛,標普500指數衝上七週新高,市場信心似乎逐漸好轉。但是預測神準的技術線型大師Tom DeMark發出警告,說美股跌勢還沒完結,三月份標普500可能會再跌10%。
MarketWatch 25日報導,DeMark預測,標普500將從當前水位挫低8~10%、至1,786點,要是情勢惡化,可能會跌至1,733點。他接受MarketWatch訪問說,儘管全球股市重現榮景,他仍有信心上述預估有可能成真。他指出,儘管九成股市觸底,不過這波反彈是空方減碼造成,並非真的看好股價會長期走升。
DeMark看法頗具份量,他近來預測多次命中。他2月初估計油價將有一波反彈,標普500打出短底。他也正確預警去年8月的中國股災,指出上證參考指數會在三週內下挫14%至3,200點。精準預言讓他成了華爾街名人,還曾為索羅斯旗下的基金公司「Soros Fund Management LLC」、投資大師Leon Cooperman旗下的Omega Advisors Inc.提供顧問服務。

基本面似乎也支持DeMark的觀點,CNBC 25日報導,美國企業盈餘持續萎縮,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)策略師回顧115年歷史,發現獲利下滑是經濟衰退的預兆,正確度高達81%。其餘19%都是當局動用財政或貨幣刺激,才逆轉衰退情勢。
美企獲利從2015年第三季開始大幅走軟,近來財報季步入尾聲,去年Q4獲利大致下跌3.6%。外界估計,情勢可能要到今年Q3才會好轉。FactSet數據顯示,市場預期今年Q1獲利將減6.5%、Q2續降1.1%。至於企業營收則更加慘淡,早已連續四季衰退。
標準普爾500 25日指數上漲1.13%(21.9)點、收1,951.70點,創1月6日以來收盤新高。
MarketWatch 2月18日報導,美股三連漲18日止步,華爾街歡樂派對暫歇,有分析師說,先前的驚人漲勢其實是軋空行情,多頭力道恐怕無以為繼。
財經部落客Greg Guenthner表示,他研究近來狂漲個股,發現幾乎都有個共同特色,這些飆股先前多遭放空,跌幅慘重;之後空方發現情勢不對,緊急買回股票,引爆軋空行情。比方說,團購網站Groupon揭露阿里巴巴入股後,16日單日飆漲41%之多,可能就是一例。(軋空是指投資人原本看壞走勢,借券放空,但是股票走高後,不堪虧損回補股票。)
Bespoke Investment Group也有類似看法,該集團17日在推特發文稱, 近來放空比率最高的個股表現優於大盤,顯示為軋空行情。跡象指出,漲勢只是假動作,而非真正反彈。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #258 on: February 27, 2016, 05:21:43 AM »



1948.05


-3.65

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #259 on: February 27, 2016, 07:02:40 AM »



Oil drags on stocks but Dow, S&P 500 gain for second week

By Sue Chang and Ellie Ismailidou
Published: Feb 26, 2016 4:54 p.m. ET

     14 
J.C. Penney, Kraft rise on strong earnings
Reuters
U.S. Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen.
U.S. stocks wiped out earlier gains to finish generally lower on Friday, pulled down as crude-oil prices turned south. But all three main indexes closed higher for a second week in a row.

The S&P 500 SPX, -0.19% shed 3.65 points, or 0.2%, to close at 1,948.05. For the week, the large-cap benchmark rose 1.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.34% dropped 57.32 points, or 0.3%, to close at 16,639.97 for a weekly gain of 1.5%. Only the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.18% rose, adding 8.27 points, or 0.2%, to close at 4,590.47. The tech-heavy index climbed 1.9% this week.


Oil prices and the S&P 500 moved in a similar intraday pattern on Friday, noted Frank Cappelleri, executive director of institutional equities at Instinet LLC.

That’s something investors have become accustomed to. In recent weeks, stocks have moved in tandem with oil with correlation estimated at nearly 90%.

Benchmarks had opened in positive territory on the heels of an upgrade to the fourth-quarter economic growth rate and a rise in crude-oil prices. However, stocks were pressured after the government said the longer-term rate of inflation doubled in January to 1.3%, closing in on the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and potentially raising the odds of another interest-rate increase soon.

Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, cautioned against reading too much into the recent batch of economic reports.

“The GDP was better, but are we really going to be excited that it came in at 1%” rather than the initial read of 0.7%? he said.

Analysts had expected a downward revision, and said the lift in GDP was mainly due to an unexpected rise in inventories. That could suggest companies got stuck with more unsold goods than they expected, as well as a big revision down in imports. Consumer spending was cut and—taking out the influence of inventories—real final sales remained the same.

Oil futures CLJ6, -0.70%  were buoyed for much of the session of hopes that major oil producers would cut output. But prices turned negative in the final minutes of trade.

The key event to watch next week, with potential implications to influence stocks, is the so-called Super Tuesday primary day, when 11 states will award delegates, according to Wedbush’s Winer.

“We should have a much better idea of who the candidates are going to be and the market will react accordingly,” he said.

Individual movers: J.C. Penney Co. JCP, +14.71%  finished 15% higher after the department store chain delivered better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat profit forecast late Thursday.

Read: J.C. Penney goes private (label) in fight to continue turnaround

Kraft Heinz Co. KHC, +3.84%  closed up 3.8%, after the food giant posted better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue late Thursday.

Monster Beverage Corp. MNST, -1.74%  ended 1.7% lower, after the energy-drink maker’s quarterly results disappointed late Thursday.

Apple CEO: FBI wants software 'equivalent of cancer'(1:28)
Tim Cook defends Apple's decision to resist an FBI demand to unlock an iPhone used by one of the suspects in the San Bernardino attack.

Gap Inc.’s GPS, -1.34%  quarterly profit topped estimates, but the clothing retailer’s full-year profit guidance was below expectations. Gap closed 1.3% lower.

Palo Alto Networks Inc. PANW, +5.20% posted stronger-than-anticipated results Thursday, with the computer security specialist saying its quarterly release hit earlier than planned due to a “manual error.” Shares closed up 5.2%.

Nutritional supplement company Herbalife Ltd. HLF, +20.52% shares rallied 21% after the company disclosed late Thursday that a probe by the Federal Trade Commission may conclude soon.

Other markets: Commodities-related stocks helped European markets SXXP, +1.53%  advance. Asian stocks closed mostly higher, with Chinese shares SHCOMP, +0.95%  recovering from the prior day’s tumble. Gold futures GCJ6, -1.29%  were slightly lower, while the dollar gained against the euro.

Read more: ‘Gold is the new black’ with its best start to the year since 1980

Economic news: At the G-20 meeting in Shanghai, China’s top central banker said Beijing won’t drastically weaken the yuan and argued officials there have sufficient tools to support their slowing economy.

—Victor Reklaitis contributed to this article.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #260 on: February 27, 2016, 05:56:54 PM »



March could come in like a bull but red flags are waving
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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March could come in like a bull, but whether the late February rally can run much further remains to be seen.

Key for that will be upcoming economic news, particularly Friday's jobs report, which is the last big piece of data ahead of the Fed's March meeting. U.S. markets could also be sensitive to global reactions to Chinese PMI manufacturing data Tuesday and Europe area inflation data, expected by some to be negative when it is reported Monday.

"Making a short-term call is very difficult because the market made such a run in the last week, and you have a major risk event — Super Tuesday," said Julian Emanuel, UBS equity and derivatives strategist. Wall Street's assumption is that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be the front — runners when votes are tallied in the dozen states and one territory holding contests Tuesday.


NYSE Traders on the floor.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
NYSE Traders on the floor.
"I think it's going to add to uncertainty," said Sam Stovall, chief U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. But he said the Super Tuesday primaries will not be that much of a worry as long as the perceived front-runners win.

Emanuel said the market has been pounded with news on the U.S. election as well as the "Brexit" — the possible split of the U.K. from the European Union. "The political news may be one thing, whether it's 'Brexit' or the continued distraction of the divisive political discourse," he said.

Economic data besides jobs will also be important. "The other major risk event is the March 1 manufacturing ISM," said Emanuel. "With the last reading of 48.2, it's basically that we're in a no man's land. You're not in a manufacturing recession, but you are in a slowdown, but given the data we've seen, it's possible there could be improvement." Economists expect a reading of 48.6. Anything below 50 signals contraction.

Read MoreSuper Tuesday is often a bottom in the stock market
Emanuel said investors had become overly negative, expecting the worst in the current market. "What people are beginning to realize is in a highly volatile environment, risks could easily skew to the upside as the downside," he said.

Stocks were mostly lower Friday but closed higher for a second week in a row, with the S&P 500 up 1.6 percent. The index finished at 1948, just below the important technical level of 1,950 and above its 50-day moving average of 1,944. The S&P has clawed back from a 15.2 percent decline, and is now off about 8.7 percent from its 2015 high.

For the month of February so far, the S&P 500 is slightly higher, up 0.4 percent, and the Dow is up 1 percent. But the Dow Transports have risen more than 7 percent. Oil was a positive factor, rising about 10 percent in the futures market, when looking at front month contracts. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April settled down 29 cents at $32.78 per barrel.


"The market seems to be coming into March like a bull," said Stovall. He said that in leap years, on Feb 29, the S&P 500 has had an average price change of 0.1 percent, and it's been negative 65 percent of the time on the 17 "leap days" since 1928.

Read MoreBuffett's troubled trades
As for the month of March, it has a better track record than the average performance of all months — a 0.65 percent gain. "March is the third-best month, on average up 1.3 percent since World War II," Stovall said.

While the market is watching jobs data on Friday, it may pay most attention to average hourly wages, expected to rise 0.2 percent, after a surprise 0.5 percent gain last month. According to Thomson Reuters, economists expect 193,000 nonfarm payrolls for February, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.


Read MoreHow to make millions if oil doesn't crater

The pickup in wages last month came as core CPI data over the last 12 months also rose above 2 percent, the Fed's targeted level. But more importantly, PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred metric rose 1.7 percent in January, a 0.3 percent from December and a leap toward the Fed's target. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike shifted Friday after the data, rising to a more than 50 percent chance for a second rate rise by December.

"This is going to be a real interesting time because remember (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen said … if inflation comes back quicker, rates could go up faster," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. But Rupkey said the market is not pricing in a rate hike, and the 10-year note yield stays stubbornly low, at 1.76 percent Friday.

While the nonfarm payrolls fell to 151,000 in January, economists see the economy as entering a period when job creation is peaking out.

Read More Wall Street starts cutting back growth outlook
"I think the problem we're running into is we reached the employment side of their (Fed) mandate, so payrolls lose some of its power," said Rupkey. "But Yellen has said that in order to have confidence their inflation target is going to be met, they want to see growth and jobs creation remain strong. For me, we've crossed the finish line on jobs, and they lifted off."

So traders will watch every measure of wages and inflation because the Fed could face a dilemma if inflation starts to take off, at the same time financial conditions worsen or the U.S. economy slows too much. There is little expectation for a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting March 16, but some economists expect Fed officials may be ready to raise rates by their June meeting.

Even before the U.S. opens for trading Monday, markets could get some news from the G-20, meeting in China. Also, the euro zone inflation data could have a negative impact on the euro if it does slip into negative territory, according to Robert Sinche, global strategist at Amherst Pierpont. Traders will be watching the data against the backdrop of the upcoming European Central Bank meeting March 10, where the ECB is expected to consider further easing steps.

"If the headline turns back negative, there will be enormous pressure on the ECB to do something," said Sinche. "The reality is what can they really do? I think the global markets are coming back to the view of what negative rates are really doing. Is it really a benefit?

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #261 on: February 27, 2016, 08:43:22 PM »



財經
最準股市預言家:美股恐2周內暴冧 今關鍵
02月26日(五) 20:43   


【on.cc東網專訊】如果你心癢癢想入市,有位殿堂級預言家「說不」!據外國傳媒報道,準確預測A股爆股災、Market Studies總裁、股市拐點指標創始人迪馬克(Tom DeMark)表示,美股最糟糕時刻仍未結束,接下來還有一波大跌,時間很可能是未來2至3周內。

他認為美國標指將從現時水平再跌8至10%,會低見1,786點;更差可能會跌至1,733點。迪馬克表示,儘管目前全球90%股市可能已見底,但更進一步的熊市很有可能就在後面。

為甚麼要相信迪馬克?因為他近期對股市的判斷特別準確,連「國際大鱷」索羅斯也敬佩他是個人才。

迪馬克發現,道斯目前走勢與1980年時驚人地相似;同時還發現,標指目前走勢與2007至2009年幾乎一致。迪馬克稱,今日對市場來說,是至關重要的一天,他和他的團隊將對預測進行重新評估。市場可能在未來2至3周內暴跌。

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #262 on: February 27, 2016, 08:44:45 PM »


財經
倘標指守不住1950點 恐爆大股災?
02月26日(五) 19:54   


【on.cc東網專訊】《東網》早前已報道過,美國標指的1,950點為「好淡分水嶺」,結果標指昨日收報1,951點,剛好站在1,950點上方,亦即意味收復了50天線,是一個短線見底訊號。

無獨有偶,摩根大通行政總裁戴蒙早在上周四環球仍恐慌時,斥資2,660萬美元買入公司的股票,有外國傳媒引述消息人士透露,戴蒙買入股票是因為他認為股價便宜。

為何標指1,950點是那麼重要?有美股期權交易員表示,因不少好倉期權的行使價是在1,950點,若標指升穿該阻力,將有不少好倉會平倉。故此,投機者會在標指升穿1,950點時沽空。不過,如果標指面對如此強大的阻力仍能輕易衝破,這意味股市的反彈浪將會更強。

這就解釋了為何標指1,950點是如此重要!不過,有分析員發現,現時標指的走勢與1929年及1987年兩次特大股災甚為相似,恐怕今次是美股「最後一次」反彈浪。皆因標指在1929和1987年經歷短暫反彈後,就進入了插水式暴跌,而2016年初的走勢和那兩次極為相似,如歷史重演,反彈過後市場將跌得甚為急勁。

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #263 on: February 27, 2016, 08:47:52 PM »



1周10大驚奇:股市3個月內上演終極一插?
02月26日(五) 21:23   

0:20



【on.cc東網專訊】《1周10大驚奇》早於去年4月警告港股過熱、5月首發股災警報,之後每周論調均是高呼小心,全因觀察到金融市場異象,絕非靠估靠直覺。本周異象警告,熊市終極一波即將殺到,恐怕較2008年更壞,如歷史重演,最快3個月內上演「終極一插」,現時是股市最後一波反彈。點解?

1、「空軍」2008年以來最多 3個月內有分曉!
據本周外國傳媒報道,在過去2個月中,紐交所沽空股票倉位數量大增4.5%,至180億股,逼近2008年7月創下的歷史高峰,在過去9個月中有7個月沽空數量是增加。(本文附圖一)

據金融博客Zerohedge指出,這樣的數據只會有兩種結果:要麼央行干預,或者發生重大的「買入」事件,令市場出現挾淡倉,標指隨時可以創新高(意味港股亦會受惠);要麼像2008年7月,創紀錄的沽空倉位準確地預見史上最大的金融危機之一,所有的淡倉在「3個月後」賺到盆滿缽滿,這或預示另一次歷史性的股災已近在眼前,如歷史重演,今年港股「五真窮」、「六仲絕」!
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2、日股走勢話你知正重演08年?
以上僅是靠嚇?現時市場人士不斷與2008年比較,本周又多了一張驚嚇圖,這就是自2015年至今,日經平均指數與2007至2009年金融海嘯時期的走勢出奇地相似。(本文附圖二)

有分析員指出,如果今次美國和日本央行再採取錯誤行動,即聯儲局加息及日本計劃上調消費稅,相同的走勢恐真的再次重演。更驚的是,從圖中可見,現時全球危機僅在「中途」!
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3、日股走勢得啖笑 美股又如何?
覺得以上日股走勢得啖笑?如果美股走勢話你知仲差過2008年,咁又點?現時美國標指的1,950點被視為「好淡分水嶺」,結果標指周四收報1,951點,同時收復了50天線,意味短線見底?

為何標指1,950點是那麼重要?有美股期權交易員表示,因不少好倉期權的行使價是在1,950點,意味大市再上動力不大,如真的能大升,是十分利好的消息。不過,有分析員發現,現時標指的走勢反而與1929年及1987年兩次特大股災甚為相似,恐怕今次是美股「最後一彈」,皆因標指在1929和1987年經歷短暫反彈後,就直插無水花,而2016年初的走勢和那兩次極為相似!(本文附圖三)

連就準確預測A股爆股災、Market Studies總裁、股市拐點指標創始人迪馬克(Tom DeMark)也表示,美股最糟糕時刻仍未結束,接下來還有一波大跌,時間很可能是未來2至3周內,最差可能會跌至1,733點。

為何要相信迪馬克?因他近期對股市的判斷特別準確,連「國際大鱷」索羅斯也敬佩他是個人才。
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4、幾時要識逃生?留意一個神奇數字!
講到咁驚,真係歷史重演?事實上,要捕捉入市時機從來不易。不過,美國著名分析員、Oppenheimer & Co首席市場策略師John Stoltzfus發現了一個神奇數字!這就是標指市盈率16.5倍。

Stoltzfus表示,在過去兩年,每當標指跌至12個月預測市盈率約16.5倍時,美股就會見底反彈,並已連續中了6次。(本文附圖四)

故此,大家要注意一個神奇數字:16.5倍!相等於標指1,800點左右。如果失準,即標指跌穿1,800點,真的要睇路了...相信港股屆時亦不好過。
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5、另類指標:美國已衰退並似07年
要股市大跌,亦須配合基本因素,現時市場人士仍力撐經濟穩健。不過,美國金融市場研究網站Economy&Markets聯合創始人Harry Dent本周表示,衰退已到!他更強調,回顧2008年經濟大動盪時,最恐慌是9月雷曼兄弟宣布破產,但事後證明,衰退不是在9月,而是1月;美股則在2007年10月見頂。

他指出,現時已有一個訊號與2008年一樣!這就是餐廳表現指數(Restaurant Performance Index)!當你認為消費者在油價慳了錢及加人工後,可以多些到餐廳消費時,這指標證明是錯!現時該指數已跌穿100指標線,正式宣布陷入衰退,情況與2007年底一模一樣。(本文附圖五)
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6、全球貿易預示仲衰過1986年!
經濟差過2008年已經好驚?據報道,環球貿易自2008年以來再現警號,更驚的是差過1986年,可謂前所未見。

素有大宗商品市場及全球航運指標之稱的「波羅的海指數」持續低迷,現時僅報327點,該指數曾在2008年5月20日達到11,793點,反映現時已由高位累瀉近97%,創1985年有紀錄以來新低。數據是全球貿易指標,數值愈低反映貿易愈放緩。

德銀表示,現時全球貿易情況確實低迷,上周作廢的船隻反映了11%的運量增長,較1986年的歷史最差紀錄6.3%更多近倍,即反映現時運力低迷情況已差過1986年。德銀指出,這表明了波羅的海指數下滑不是假象,更驚的是差過1986年,亦是史上最差。
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7、邊個沽貨?全球主權基金恐掟貨3萬億
環球股市跌到現水平,經常會有人問,估值那麼便宜,究竟誰仍沽貨?答案是:如果今年油價仍處於每桶30至40美元徘徊,全球主權基金或於環球股市沽貨,金額料高達4,043億美元,即逾3萬億港元。

據資料顯示,全球財富基金管理資產達7萬億美元,去年就已經沽售了2,134億美元的上市公司股票,咁去年市況令你驚唔驚?如果沽貨金額多一倍,股市會跌到咩位?事實上,全球主權基金已在過去2年開始沽貨,其中沙特阿拉伯於去年12月的海外淨資產已減少逾190億美元。
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8、邊個最惡?伊朗倘拒凍產 全球「玩完」
以上提及了油價,事實上,現時環球股市及經濟去向確實要看油價表現。故此,中國、美國、歐洲、日本,甚至希臘也不是「最惡」!總部位於杜拜的銀行Emirates NBD分析師Edward Bell稱,油價能否守住30美元支持位取決於「伊朗」!他說,如果伊朗不同意減產或凍結產量,油價就可能會跌破每桶30美元。

換句話說,只要伊朗一句,全球金融市場恐再次陷入恐慌。本周有消息指出,全球產油國將於3月中開會,股市恐怕再添波動。
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9、黑天鵝成真?鎊匯暴跌到重返1985年?
上文提到全球貿易恐差過1986年,有隻貨幣本周勁跌,可能真的返回1986年前。正當大家睇實日圓、韓圜,甚至歐元,睇睇邊到可以平價食玩買,豈料英鎊本周「爆大冷」跑出!近日「脫歐」搞到滿城風雨,英鎊兌美元一度跌穿1.4大關,低見1.3879,創2009年3月以來新低,只要稍有閃失,英鎊就會瀉至1985年水平,屆時兌港元恐見8算!

滙豐發表悲觀報告指出,如果英國在6月23日公投後「脫歐」,英鎊將最多貶值20%,即英鎊兌美元跌至1.15水平,為1985年以來新低,兌港元亦會跌至8算!屆時英國GDP亦會下跌1.5個百分點。高盛亦認同,若果英國公民真的選擇「脫歐」,英鎊兌美元可能會跌至1.15至1.2水平。

市場一直擔心英國「脫歐」的最大黑天鵝事件,隨時令金融市場崩潰!
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10、做大有錢佬真係天注定?
最後想算一算命,睇得財經,你或多或少都想致富,但原來早有命數?有外國網站分析了1996年至2015年全球頂級千幾位富豪個人資料數據,發現億萬富豪最多生於水瓶座!除了星座,還有5樣特徵,一齊睇睇自己有冇富豪相!(本文附圖六及七

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #264 on: February 28, 2016, 06:24:46 AM »



A Chilling Forecast For Those With 20/10 Vision
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 14:40 -0500

Chart Patterns Moving Averages Technical Analysis Technical Indicators


 
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Submitted by Michael Lebowitz via 720Global.com,

At 720 Global we follow a large number of fundamental and macroeconomic indicators to help forecast the markets. In addition we also monitor technical indicators to gain further confidence when making market forecasts and assessing the likelihood of outcomes. Although we do not spend much time writing about technical analysis, we view it as an important tool in evaluating human investment behavior.  When technical indicators line up with the fundamental metrics, the reinforcement provides a greater level of confidence in the analysis.

In this article we highlight a simple technical indicator that has proven prescient over the last 15 years.  Currently, this indicator supports much that we have posited regarding equity valuations and what they portend for the future direction of prices.

Moving Averages
Moving averages are the average price at which an index or security has traded over the last number of days, weeks, months or even years. For instance, today’s 20­day moving average for the S&P 500 is its average closing price over the prior 20 days. Many investors use moving averages to help gauge where a security or index may encounter support or resistance. Due to the widespread use of moving averagesit is not uncommon to see prices gravitate toward moving averages.

Another way investors employ moving averages is to compare them across different time frames. For example, an investor may compare the 20­day moving average to the 50­day moving average. It is said that when a shorter term moving average is higher than a longer term moving average the underlying stock or index has positive momentum and vice versa. Therefore, when shortterm moving averages crossto the upside or the downside of longer term moving averagesit can signal an inflection point where momentum has changed direction.

20/10
The indicator that is currently catching our attention, and may be worthy of your attention, is a comparison of the 10­month and 20­month moving averages on the monthly S&P 500 index. Monthly moving averages are similar to the aforementioned 20­day example but instead of daily closing prices, monthly closing prices are used.

The chart below shows the monthly price of the S&P 500 since 1999 in blue. It is flanked by the 10­ and 20­month moving averages in green and red respectively. Note that when the 10­month moving average rises above the 20­month moving average, it has signaled the early stages of a sustained rally in the S&P 500. Conversely when the 10­month moving average falls below the 20­month moving average it has signaled a prolonged decline.

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages


In the following graph we drew circles around the 3 instances that the 10­month moving average crossed below the 20­month moving average and “positive momentum stalled”. Alternatively boxes are used to show when the opposite happened and “negative momentum stalled”.

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages – Crosses Highlighted


The graph below enlarges the past year to show that as of late February 2016 the 10­month moving average dipped below the 20­month moving average – a potential indication of “stalled positive momentum”.   

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages – Prior Year

Important Disclosure: The moving averages shown above are based on the value of the index in late­February 2016. The crossing of the two moving averages will not be “official” until the end of the month. By our calculations, a closing price of 1993 or lower on the S&P 500 on February 29th would cause the 10­month moving average to drop below the 20­month moving average.

[ZH - here is the update as of Friday's close]



Summary
Some investors are pure technicians and only use technical analysis to allocate capital. Others disregard it entirely; swearing it off as voodoo. As chart patterns are merely a reflection of capital flows resulting from human decision making, we believe technical analysis offers useful insight and can be helpful in gaining further conviction around an investment idea.

If, by the end of February, there is indeed a crossover of the moving averages, we will have a higher level of confidence that the near­constant march higher in prices since 2009 has reversed trend.  If history proves prophetic, buckle up. Stock prices may be in for a precipitous decline.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #265 on: February 28, 2016, 09:37:48 PM »



So much for that imminent market meltdown...
by Matt Egan   @mattmegan5
February 26, 2016: 4:06 PM ET   


Your video will play in 00:28
The American stock market is in the midst of a pretty sweet comeback.
Just two weeks ago the market was in full-fledged freak out mode over the crash in oil prices and depressing global growth. People were dumping stocks almost like it was 2008 all over again.
But cooler heads have prevailed, at least for the moment. Even after closing lower on Friday, the Dow is up a whopping 1,100 points since its lowest point on February 11. The S&P 500 has soared 4.7% over the past two weeks, its best stretch in exactly a year.
So what changed? First, fears of an imminent recession have faded -- and for good reason. The U.S. economy isn't in as terrible shape as the rest of the world -- nor as bad as investors thought just a few weeks ago.
Fourth-quarter growth was upgraded to a less terrible 1% on Friday and there's mounting evidence that consumer spending is accelerating in early 2016.
"The markets had gotten down to where a recession was at least halfway priced in," said Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial. "It's been a big reversal of that extreme pessimism."
That's why the Dow is now down "only" 4.5% on the year and the Nasdaq is no longer flirting with a bear market.
Related: The worst may finally be over for stocks
Oil and stocks move in lockstep
It's no coincidence that stocks bottomed the same day oil prices did. The turbulent commodity has surged a ridiculous 30% since the February 11 lows to nearly $35 a barrel.
That may not be great news for consumers filling up their gas tanks. But it is good for your retirement account because the stock market has become obsessed with the downsides of cheap oil, including job cuts and bankruptcies in the energy industry. For virtually all of this year the S&P 500 and oil have moved in lockstep -- for better or worse.
Of course, that means the stock market could experience another setback if oil makes another U-turn. Don't rule out that possibility. Oil prices are volatile and the world still has more than it needs. Saudi Arabia and Russia simply talking about freezing production -- without help from Iran -- won't fix the epic supply glut.
"Oil and stock prices appear joined at the hip," said Valeri. "It's hard to make the case for a sustained rally in oil prices."
But that hasn't prevented energy stocks from skyrocketing of late. Chesapeake Energy (CHK)is up 80% from its lows, while ExxonMobil (XOM) has soared 23%.
Oil isn't the only closely-watched commodity showing signs of life. Metals like copper and iron ore that serve as barometers of global growth have also stopped melting down, easing recession fears and lifting materials stocks like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).
oil prices February
Related: Oil still has a chokehold on stocks
So where do stocks go from here?
In addition to the commodities complex, the markets will likely be dictated by the economy and the Federal Reserve.
The calmer mood in the markets and fading recession jitters may put interest rate hikes from the Fed back on the table. If the Fed signals it's planning to lift rates more aggressively than investors are comfortable with, another market temper tantrum is possible.
Still, investment strategists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the S&P 500 will end the year with a gain of 2.5%. That would be pretty good considering it was down as much as 11.4% this year at one point.
"I suspect we continue to put together piecemeal rallies, interrupted by spasms of 'risk-off' that ultimately allow for equity markets to regain some composure," Peter Kenny, an independent market strategist, wrote in a note

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #266 on: February 29, 2016, 06:35:22 AM »



MONEY

Markets may recoil at lack of new G20 measures, analysts fear
Published: February 28, 2016 11:37 PM GMT+8

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Fed chair Janet Yellen and UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne left with little more than whiling time for a group photo session to wind up the G20 meeting. — Reuters pic
Fed chair Janet Yellen and UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne left with little more than whiling time for a group photo session to wind up the G20 meeting. — Reuters pic
LONDON, Feb 28 — Investors could trim back positions on equities given a failure by a weekend meeting of the G20 group of leading economies to come up with concrete, new measures to boost growth, analysts said.

The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers declared yesterday that they needed to look beyond ultra-low interest rates and printing money to shake the global economy out of its torpor.

But there was no plan for specific co-ordinated stimulus spending to spark activity, something investors had been hoping for after markets nosedived at the start of 2016 owing to concerns about a slowdown in China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

“The fact that the G20 is going to do more of the same is likely to be greeted with a big yawn and a likely fall on stock markets,” said Richard Edwards, managing director at trading and research firm HED Capital.

Others felt equally discouraged.

“Some people will be disappointed that there are no concrete measures,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Geneva-based investment and consultancy firm Prime Partners.


In their communique, the G20 ministers agreed to use “all policy tools — monetary, fiscal and structural — individually and collectively” to boost the world economy.

However, the two-day meeting in Shanghai highlighted differing views from policymakers on the best way forward, dampening the chance of co-ordinated action in the near future.

Phoebus Theologites, co-founder of multi-fund investment company SteppenWolf Capital, said the euro could rise against the US dollar, since the G20 had cast a shadow of doubt over the effectiveness of more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Divisions have emerged among major economies over the reliance on debt to drive growth, and the use of negative interest rates by some major world central banks.

Germany had made it clear it was not keen on new stimulus, with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble saying on Friday that the debt-financed growth model had reached its limits.

A rise in the euro against the dollar often leads to a fall on European stock markets, since European companies’ exports typically benefit from a weaker euro.

The G20 communique also flagged a series of risks to world growth, including volatile capital flows, a sharp fall in commodity prices and the potential “shock” of a British exit from the European Union — known colloquially as “Brexit”.

Sterling fell to a seven-year low against the dollar on Friday because of worries over Brexit, and HED Capital’s Edwards said it would remain under pressure, given the G20’s warning.

“Sterling is already weak and it will remain weak,” he said. — Reuters

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/markets-may-recoil-at-lack-of-new-g20-measures-say-analysts#sthash.NkAD8sV8.dpuf

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #267 on: February 29, 2016, 06:49:39 AM »



The G-20 Meeting Was A Big Disappointment: What Happens Next
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2016 16:43 -0500

Bank of Japan Capital Markets Central Banks China Citigroup Credit Conditions Eurozone Global Economy Japan Monetary Policy Nikkei Steven Englander Volatility Yen


 
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Exactly one week ago, when BofA's Michael Hartnett explained what global capital markets need to rebound from their recent doldrums, he laid out what he sees are the world's two biggest problems:

Problem 1: US economy in “bad Goldilocks”, i.e. US economy not hot/strong enough to lift global GDP & EPS; but not cold/bad enough to induce global coordinated response
Problem 2: global policy-maker rhetoric in recent days shows “coordinated innocence” not stimulus, all blaming global economy for weak domestic economies (“Overseas factors are to blame”…Japan PM Abe; "drag on U.S. economy from greater-than-expected-slowdown in China & other EM economies“…FOMC minutes; “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy”…ECB Draghi; “the change in China’s growth rate can be attributed in part to weak performance of the global economy”…PBoC)
That recaps the problems; as to what the markets need he said the following:

"We remain sellers into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response (e.g. Shanghai Accord) begins to reverse the deterioration in global profit expectations and credit conditions."
It was the expectation of a "massive policy stimulus" out of this weekend's G-20 that unleashed last week's furious short squeeze on concerns that shorts could be steamrolled by some G-20 surprise, as remote as it may have been. Citi's Brent Donnelly confirmed as much: "the relevant question now is whether or not this 160-handle rally in SPX (!) is partially attributable to shorts squaring up ahead of the G20 meeting." His answer: absolutely.

Indeed, as we reported yesterday, the G-20 has come and gone and has been a total flop, which was also not exactly a surprise: As Hartnett also said one week ago, "stabilization of “4C’s” (China, Commodities, Credit, Consumer) allowed SPX 1800 to hold/bounce to 1950-2000; weak policy stimulus in coming weeks could end rally/risk fresh declines to induce growth-boosting policy accord."

Donnelly was just as blunt: "I would say the rally in the past two days has had extra momentum because of G20 and now shorts should be looking to reestablish—so I think stocks should trade weak from here into Monday."

Worse, it was not just that the G-20 disappointed; it actually left everyone even more confused than going into the weekend:

Ambiguity on dealing with exchange rate swings also left market participants guessing. The policymakers reiterated that such volatility "can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. At the same, they forswore "competitive devaluations" and vowed not to "target our exchange rates for competitive purposes." It isn't clear from these two sentences whether Japan has license to try to reverse the yen's gains against the dollar since the start of the year, assuming it can stop the run-up.
Ok, so the G-20 not only disappointed it also left market watchers scratching their head making the case for further downside more credible, but what about the lingering risk of another major central bank intervention in the coming days: after all on deck as the BOJ's meeting as well the the ECB.

The problem for the BOJ is that after it pulled the ridiculous NIRP stunt, it may have no political capital left for further surprises, and certainly no ammo. According to the Nikkei, "Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda assured reporters on Saturday that no fellow G-20 officials had voiced objections to the BOJ's negative interest rate policy. But Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and president of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance chiefs, said "there was some concern that we would get into a situation of competitive devaluations" as a result of the BOJ's move.

Osamu Takashima at Citigroup Global Markets Japan said that "Japan's policy of trying to lift its economy by moving the yen in a weaker direction with monetary policy isn't very welcome."

He added that if the G-20 statement is seen as a deterrent against fresh monetary stimulus from the BOJ, another bout of yen appreciation may follow, and with it a renewed sell-off in Japanese stocks.
As the Yen appreciates, that would imply further selling in the S&P as more carry trades are forced to be unwound, especially since the market finally understands what Hartnett really meant when he said that "we remain sellers into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response begins."

In other words, after the squeeze, now the next leg lower can start - one which prompts central banks to intervene. And since the BOJ is now sidelined, it means the ball is entirely in the court of the ECB. This is how Citi's head of FX Steven Englander lays out the next steps:

Policymakers are more likely to blame bad luck than policy ineffectiveness for the way in which currencies move. They will be mindful of concerns on banks from negative rates and flat curves, and will probably find some way of cushioning banks from the impact of their moves.
The fear of policy ineffectiveness has led investors to downgrade both the impact of future policy moves and the probability of future policy moves. If central banks come back with further eases, with some provisions to cushion the impact on bank profits, there will be a partial bounce back in asset markets. Financial markets may still respond, even if the expected impact on final demand on inflation is limited.
The ECB is in focus. EZ is undershooting on growth and inflation, and ECB President Draghi has been impassioned on the need to provide more stimulus. If they lowball or grudgingly meet expectations, we could face another December 4 move because market participants will see it as the equivalent of a ‘last ease in the cycle announcement’, basically ECB throwing in the towel. If they move aggressively (and take measures beyond vanilla QE and 10bps on rates), they will catch market off guard and unwind the view that policymakers see themselves as powerless.
In other words, the next big move in the market is now entirely in Mario Draghi's hands

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #268 on: February 29, 2016, 07:06:01 AM »



Bull Rallies In Bear Markets - The Perfect Storm
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2016 13:01 -0500

B+ B.S. Bank of England Bear Market China Germany Housing Bubble International Monetary Fund Japan Monetary Policy Russell 2000 Technical Analysis


 
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Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestentAdvice.com,

 

bear-in-bull-disguise

In last week’s missives, I discussed the potential for an oversold, short-covering bounce which was to be used to further rebalance portfolios and reduce equity risk. The target zone was 1940 to allow for the completion of the “risk reduction” process.

“That rally could take the markets back to the previous resistance of 1940 (about a 4% push) from current levels. Such a rally would be enough to **** many of the “bulls” back into the markets pushing markets back into overbought territory and setting up the next decline.”
Chart updated through Friday’s close:

SP500-MarketUpdate-1-022616

The good news is that the market was able to break above 1940, and the 50-dma, which now clears the way for a push to the 1970-1990 where the next levels of resistance will be found.

The bad news is that the markets are once again extremely overbought and still confined inside of an overall downtrend.

Importantly, as I predicted last week, the 200 and 400-dma has crossed into bearish territory for the first time since the financial crisis. While such a “cross” is not necessarily a signal of the onset of a new cyclical bear market, it does apply yet another level of downward pressure on stock prices.

The next chart lays out the most probable path of the current bull rally within the confines of an overall bearish trend.

SP500-MarketUpdate-2-022616

There are quite a few moving pieces here, so let me explain.

The shaded areas represent 2 and 3-standard deviations of price movement from the 125-day moving average. I am using a longer-term moving average here to represent more extreme price extensions of the index. The last 4-times prices were 3-standard deviations below the moving average, the subsequent rallies were very sharp as short-positions were forced to cover. The vertical blue bars show the previous two periods where bulls regained footing and pushed markets from lows towards new highs. The current setup is indeed similar to those previous two attempts. All we are lacking is some serious “jawboning” from a Fed official about accommodative support to push markets higher. 
The bottom of the chart shows the overbought/sold conditions of the market. The vertical dashed lines show that oversold conditions lead to fairly sharp rallies. The recent rally, while the “best rally of the year,” has responded as expected from recent oversold conditions. With the oversold condition now exhausted, the potential for further upside has been reduced.
With the 125-day moving average trading below the 150-dma, and with both averages declining rather than advancing, the easiest path for prices continues to be lower as downward resistance continues to be built. The arching dashed red line shows the change of overall advancing to now declining price trends.
 

As I stated, such an advance would correspond with a rally within the ongoing downtrend and sets the markets up for the next retest of recent lows.

But that is must my opinion. There were some really good confirming bits of technical analysis out this past week as well worth sharing with you.

NO BREAKOUT FOR THE BULLS

Northman Trader had an interesting technical post on Friday showing the technical breakdown of the market from several perspectives. The first, as shown below, is that while the markets closed below the important 1950 level, it did manage to stay above the 50-dma but just barely.

Northy-1

Importantly, Northy also noted the topping pattern I discussed above along with the critical support levels going back to March and October 2014 lows.

But here is the most important point he makes:

“$SPX monthly chart: Unless the $SPX has a miracle rally on Monday it will close the month not having touched its monthly 5 EMA from the underside for the first time since 2009:“
Northy-2

What Northy notes in the chart above is the same message I have discussed over the past couple of months. That message is simple:

“The market is currently suggesting that the bull market began in 2009 has now come to its inevitable conclusion.”
THE PERFECT STORM

Erin Heim from Decision Point, recently penned an excellent analysis also suggesting that the recent bull rally is NOT the beginning of a new bull market cycle. To wit:

“Indicators in all time-frames don’t always coordinate with each other, but I believe they are beginning to meld right now. I noticed each time-frame was becoming extremely overbought.
 
The first chart shows the On Balance Volume Indicator Suite made up of the Climactic Volume Indicator(CVI), Short-Term Volume Oscillator (STVO) and the Volume Trend Oscillator (VTO). As I said, they don’t often peak at the same time. Dragging a vertical line across the chart, I marked overbought readings peaking at the same time. The result? A price top. But wait, it’s important to point out the green line. There are undeniable similarities in price pattern and indicators that preceded another leg up. However, note volume behavior (blue lines). There is a distinct difference. Volume stayed fairly even during the preceding rally and in this case, volume has been drifting lower.“
Heim-Chart1

“Here’s a three-year chart using the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), Swenlin Trading Oscillator – Breadth (STO-B) and Intermediate-Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM). These indicators don’t line up very often. The last yellow bar uses a short-term overbought peak for the ITBM with the same result.”
Heim-Chart2

“Conclusion: When all three time-frames become this overbought at the same time, we usually see a correction or sizable decline. Last time on the CVI/STVO/VTO chart, it was a continuation rally; however, volume decreasing on the current rally indicates a decline is more likely.”
DON’T BUY THE “BUY & HOLD” LINE OF B.S.

I recently penned an entire article on the fallacy of buy and hold investing. However, my friend Jesse Felder via the Felder Report did a super job of reiterating the point this week.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
 
“This quote has been making the rounds since the market’s 2% decline last Thursday. It’s a great quote; I’m a huge Peter Lynch fan. I’ve read each of his books at least twice and recommend them enthusiastically.
 
However, I think there’s an important point to be made here. Peter Lynch managed money professionally from 1977 to 1990 putting up an amazing track record: 29% average annual returns. No doubt this places him in a very elite class of the most skilled investors ever. But he also had a massive tailwind to work with as the stock market was very attractively valued during his entire career.
 
Below is a chart of the total stock market value relative to GDP (via Doug Short). I’ve circled the area that represents Lynch’s career in red:”
Felder-2

“Over the past couple of decades there was maybe only a single month, at the very bottom of the financial crisis, during which stock market valuations neared the levels that Peter Lynch had to work with. And even then those levels, of about 60% market cap to GDP – that we considered cheap, during his career represented the month just before the 1987 crash!
 
Considering what investors have gone through since Lynch retired, the aftermath of the internet bubble, housing bubble and financial crisis, I think it would be very difficult to make the case that they lost far more money over the past couple of decades trying to sidestep these debacles than the money lost by those who didn’t sidestep them.“
Felder-1

“When Treasury Bonds far outperform stocks over a 15 year period, I’d say sidestepping the madness of these markets has paid off fairly well. And considering the fact that stocks are now, once again overvalued to the point that an investor can expect roughly a 0% return over the coming decade, I’d say it will probably pay to sidestep it once again.”
Jesse has this absolutely right. The essence of “buy and hold investing” has been corrupted by Wall Street in the endeavor to turn a traditionally commissioned based business into an “annuity stream.” This is great for Wall Street, but bad for you.

The truth of “buy and hold” investing was best summed up in the following quote:

“Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. This is more than just a catch slogan. It is the very essence of successful investing.” – J Paul Getty
Something to think about the next time someone tells you to just “hold for the long term.”

THE MONDAY MORNING CALL

All week investors have been hoping that the G-20 meeting would yield more Central Bank commitments for further monetary interventions to keep the “circus in town.”  Unfortunately, Monday morning may see the markets under pressure as such hopes were left “wanting.”

Here is the key passage from Bloomberg:

“The G-20 members agreed to use monetary, fiscal and structural tools to boost growth, according to a final communique released in Shanghai on Saturday. Underscoring concerns over the limitations of central bank-led stimulus, ‘monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth,‘ the document said.
 
Leading into the meetings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned counterparts against getting embroiled in a currency war by pushing interest rates too low, while International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the effects of monetary policies, even innovative ones, are diminishing.
 
With the U.K. mulling spending cuts, Japan planning a sales tax increase, Germany’s finance minister warning debt-funded growth just leads to ‘zombifying’ economies, and the U.S. constrained by a lame duck president and Republican-controlled Congress, it may fall to China to ratchet up the fiscal firepower.
 
‘Investor hopes of coordinated policy actions proved to be pure fantasy,’ said David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury and now an analyst at fund manager TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. ‘It’s every country for themselves.'”
This is not likely to set well with investors as markets continue to deteriorate internally as shown in the market internal study below. (This is a monthly study, so only end-of-the-month closes are counted.)

SP500-MarketTechnicals-022716

While the market is desperately clinging onto long-term moving average support currently, it is only barely doing so. What is clearly apparent is that despite “bullish hopes” that the recent correction has now ended, with all internal measures pointed lower this will likely prove not to be the case.

Dana Lyons noted on Saturday that the Russell 2000, which has been under considerably more downward pressure in recent months, is approaching multiple layers of overhead resistance. A failure at those resistance levels will continue to confirm the bearish trend in the Russell 2000 which is already in a full-fledged bear market.

Russell-2000

WAITING FOR CHANGE

As stated two weeks ago in this weekly missive:

“I recommended using any rally this week to move to the lowest level of equity exposure for this part of the cycle. (When the bear market is confirmed we will take portfolios to market neutral by hedging off any remaining equity risk, but we are not there as of yet.)
 
I suggest doing this by:
Trimming back winning positions to original portfolio weights: Investment Rule: Let Winners Run
Selling positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.) Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short
Holding the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs. Investment Rule: Buy Low
As such there is now little for us to do except to wait, and watch patiently, for the market to either confirm a “bear market,” OR stabilize and begin to rebuild the bullish supports necessary to allow equity risk to once again be increased.
 
Neither situation will make itself apparent in short order, so relax and we let the market dictate what actions we take next. “Guessing” at the markets has not typically been a successful and repeatable strategy.”
So, for now, we continue to wait. When indicators begin to improve, and turn back into the positive, which could be next week, month, or year, such will be the indication “more constructive market dynamics” are in place increasing the reward/risk ratio. That is not now.

As investors, we should not be basing our investment decisions on “hope,” but rather an analysis of the evidence that would put the highest probability of “winning” in our favor.  While you can certainly continue betting on “weak hands,” any good poker player will tell you that is a sure way to eventually go broke

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #269 on: February 29, 2016, 08:42:06 AM »



OIL STOCK BOND MUST BE BROKEN, OR ONLY MISERY AWAITS EQUITIES IN MARCH
Our Reporter | February 29, 2016
images
From :Wallace Witkowski

Investors are hoping March brings about a break in the high correlation between stock prices and oil prices as a signal to find renewed confidence in equity markets, but first crude prices are going to have to stabilize.

Since the beginning of December, the S&P 500 and oil prices have finished the day moving in the same direction on 44 out of 60 trading days, more than two-thirds of the time, according to FactSet data.

The high correlation of stock and oil prices may be due to the recent trend of sovereign-wealth funds, many belonging to oil rich nations, selling off stockholdings to help bridge budget gaps created by low oil prices, said Randy Frederick, managing director of Schwab Center for Financial Research.

“If Saudi Arabia doesn’t make money on oil then they’re going to tap into savings, which for them is their sovereign-wealth fund,” he said. And what ends up getting sold off much of the time are U.S. stocks.

Then, it becomes a self perpetuating cycle, as programmers start incorporating the correlation into their trading algorithms. “Correlation begets correlation,” Frederick said.

With stocks still at the mercy of fluctuating oil prices, crude prices need to start stabilizing to bring back investor confidence, otherwise March is going to be much like January and February, said Eugene Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management Group.

One relatively bright spot is that fewer people are talking about a recession and U.S. growth, while anemic, is still better off than most of the world, he said.
“The U.S. may be alone in the ocean but at least we’re floating,” said Stone.
(market watch)

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #270 on: March 01, 2016, 05:49:22 AM »



1932.23


-15.82

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #271 on: March 01, 2016, 06:31:16 AM »



S&P, Nasdaq post first 3-month losing streak since 2011
Evelyn Cheng   | @chengevelyn
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U.S. stocks closed lower Monday, despite gains in oil, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite ended February with losses.

The S&P and Nasdaq posted their first three-straight months of losses since the five-month losing streak ended September 2011. ( Tweet This )
Traders attributed the decline in stocks largely to late-day sell orders around the month-end. Selling accelerated into the close, with the S&P 500 closing about 0.8 percent lower on the day, below its 50-day moving average and down 0.4 percent for the month.


A worker checks the valves at Al-Sheiba oil refinery in the southern Iraq city of Basra.
US oil ends up 3% on Saudi freeze comments
Traders work in trading floor of the CME Group's Chicago Board of Trade in Chicago.
US Treasury yields mixed as investors remain on edge

Yen gains as G-20 offers little comfort; dollar resilient

Gold gains, set for best month in four years

The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 123 points lower to below its 50-day moving average, but still squeezed out a gain of 0.3 percent for the month, its best since November. Home Depot and UnitedHealth were the greatest contributors to losses.
The declines in stocks came despite a rise in oil. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 97 cents, or 2.96 percent, at $33.75 a barrel. WTI futures for April delivery rose 0.39 percent for February, its first positive month since October.

Health care closed more than 1.5 percent lower to lead declines on the S&P 500, while utilities was the only gainer. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) ended down 2.8 percent.
"I think today was a real nasty day for specialty pharma," said Paul Yook, portfolio manager at BioShares. He cited several negative headlines for the sector Monday, including news around Valeant Pharmaceutical

The stock closed down 18.4 percent after Bloomberg reported Valeant is under investigation by the SEC. The firm also withdrew prior guidance, rescheduled its fourth-quarter earnings call and said CEO Michael Pearson was back from medical leave.

Earlier, the major stock indexes attempted to hold gains after opening mildly lower.
"The fact that oil is up big and the market isn't up big concerns me, but what's going on is the market's a little bit tired," said Matthew Tuttle, chief investment officer of Tuttle Tactical Management.
"The market's already had a big move off the 1,812 area and it's just tired at this point," he said, noting a struggle for the S&P 500 to get far past the 1,950 level.

Major averages 5-year performance



In economic news, Chicago PMI came in at 47.6 in February, missing expectations and dropping from 55.6 in January. Pending home sales fell 2.5 percent in January, versus expectations for a slight gain.
Stocks held little changed after the data, an indication of "underlying strength based on expectations of economic growth" later this year, said Ben Pace, chief investment officer at HPM Partners.

"Nothing's pointing to a U.S. recession, nor a more aggressive Fed," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.
Key data for the week include ISM manufacturing on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday.
Treasury yields were little changed, with the 2-year yield near 0.79 percent and the 10-year yield a touch lower at 1.74 percent.

Read MorePro Uncut: Interview with Nigerian oil minister
European equities came off session lows to close mixed after China's central bank announced further stimulus measures.
The People's Bank of China cut further the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash the country's banks have to hold, by 0.5 percentage points after China's markets closed Monday. The cut was the first since October and the fifth since last February.

The reserve requirement ratio comes into effect Tuesday and means most large Chinese banks will have a reserve ratio of 17 percent, Reuters said.

Asian equities closed mostly lower, with the Shanghai composite down about 2.9 percent but above session lows and the Nikkei 225 reversing gains to close down 1 percent.
U.S. stock index futures tried for gains as the opening bell approached, helped by a rise in U.S. crude oil futures to above $33 a barrel.

"I still think oil is by far the primary driver of the market at the moment," said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

Read MoreMarch could come in like a bull but red flags are waving
After the conclusion of the G-20 meeting over the weekend, the Chinese yuan midpoint fix against the dollar was 6.5452, the softest in almost a month and 0.17 percent weaker than the previous fix of 6.5338, Reuters said.

The U.S. dollar index traded mildly higher after hitting its highest since Feb. 3. The euro was near $1.088 after dipping to its lowest against the dollar since Feb. 1. The yen traded at 112.75 yen against the greenback while pound sterling held near $1.3900.
Euro zone inflation data showed a drop to minus 0.2 percent, boosting expectations of more policy easing when the European Central Bank meets on March 10.

The Dallas Fed general business activity for February was negative 31.8, slightly better than the minus 34.6 January read but holding in negative territory for a 14th-straight month.

Symbol   
Name   
Price       
Change   
%Change
DJIA   Dow Jones Industrial Average   16516.50       -123.47   -0.74%
S&P 500   S&P 500 Index   1932.23       -15.82   -0.81%
NASDAQ   Nasdaq Composite Index   4557.95       -32.52   -0.71%
The Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq composite ended February 10 percent or more below their 52-week intraday highs, in correction territory. The S&P 500 was within 10 percent of its 52-week intraday high, out of correction territory.

The Dow transports closed down 0.8 percent Monday but gained 6.35 percent for February, their best month since January 2013.

The Russell 2000 lost 0.3 percent Monday and ended February down 0.14 percent, for its third-straight monthly decline.

On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average closed above their 50-day moving averages.

"The SPX cleared short-term resistance last week, but we expect upside follow-through to be limited by short-term overbought conditions," BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton said in a note.

Read MoreEarly movers: CNX, C, LL, FDML, SYY, AMC, SBUX, UTX, DIS & more
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 123.47 points, or 0.74 percent, at 16,516.50, with Caterpillar leading advancers and JPMorgan Chase the greatest decliner.

The Dow gained 0.30 percent for February, with DuPont up almost 15.4 percent as the top gainer and Microsoft down 7.6 percent as the worst performer.

The S&P 500 closed down 15.82 points, or 0.81 percent, at 1,932.23, with health care leading nine sectors lower and utilities the only gainer.

The index lost 0.41 percent for February, with financials falling nearly 3.2 percent as the worst performer and materials up 7.3 percent as the best performer.

The Nasdaq composite closed down 32.52 points, or 0.71 percent, at 4,557.95.

The Nasdaq fell 1.21 percent for the month. Apple declined 0.67 percent for the month. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) lost 4.85 percent for February.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, held near 20.5.
Advancers were a touch ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of nearly 1.3 billion and a composite volume of 4.4 billion.

Gold futures for April delivery settled up $14 at $1,234.40 an ounce. Gold gained 10.57 percent for February, its best month since January 2012

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #272 on: March 01, 2016, 06:56:21 AM »



The S&P 500 is close to flashing a bearish signal it hasn’t displayed since 2008

By Victor Reklaitis
Published: Feb 29, 2016 7:39 a.m. ET

     63 
Chart watcher warns stock index nears a ‘bearish crossover’
Getty Images
Watch out because a key stock benchmark is close to a “bearish crossover,” warn chart watchers.

The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81%  is not far from having its 10-month moving average cross below its 20-month moving average from above for the first time since 2008, says Jonathan Krinsky at MKM Partners in a note dated Sunday.

There have been just two other such crossovers in the last 22 years, and “both coincided with cyclical bear markets,” cautions Krinsky, MKM’s chief market technician. His note offers the chart below.


MKM Partners
Technical analysts often say that a market’s downward momentum is confirmed with this type of bearish crossover, which happens when a shorter-term moving average drops under a longer-term moving average. In happier times, upward momentum is confirmed when a shorter-term moving average jumps above the longer-term average, as Investopedia has explained.

While the S&P has nabbed two weekly advances in a row and may end with a gain for February, Krinsky writes that he doesn’t think the U.S. stock benchmark is in “a sustainable uptrend” in part because of the bearish crossover that’s close to occurring.

The crossover will have happened if the S&P ends Monday’s session below 1,970, Krinksy adds. The index closed at 1,948.05 on Friday.

720 Global’s Michael Lebowitz flagged the looming bearish crossover as well. “If history proves prophetic, buckle up,” Lebowitz writes, as noted in MarketWatch’s Need to Know column. “Stock prices may be in for a precipitous decline.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #273 on: March 01, 2016, 07:02:18 AM »



March may be the best chance yet for a stock market rally

By Sue Chang
Published: Feb 29, 2016 3:33 p.m. ET

     22 
Raymond James analyst Saut believes the market bottomed in February
Shutterstock
Investors may be glad it’s March after barely eking out gains in February.
March may be the best chance yet for an S&P 500 rally if you ask Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. History and an energy shift at the market’s gut level could be the triggers.

Saut believes the stock market bottomed in February. “The first week of March should see the market’s ‘internal energy’ rebuilt for another try on the upside,” he said in a report.

The strategist relies on a proprietary formula to gauge the market’s energy and based on this indicator, projected that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% is on the cusp of a big move.


Timing is also important in his outlook.

Traditionally, the period between the 28th of a month to the 6th of a new month has been very strong for the stock market. Those few days tend to generate all of the S&P 500 gains going back to 1950, according to Saut.

There’s more history on the market’s side. Over the past 65 years, the S&P 500 has risen 42 times in March and fallen 24 times, with average return of 1.06%, according to Moneychimp, a financial education website. That makes March the fourth best month for stocks after December, November and April. The average return for February, on the other hand, is a dismal negative 0.05%.

In fact, the first five days of March have all posted positive annualized returns going back to 1950, Saut said.

Annualized returns going back to 1950
Raymond James
March tends to be kind to the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.74% too. The Dow posted average gains of 1.36% in March with positive returns 14 of 20 times over the past 20 years, according to Bespoke Investment Group, writing in a note to investors.

Bespoke Investment Group
“I’m pretty confident that the market is headed for an upside breakout,” Saut told MarketWatch, projecting the S&P 500 will punch through resistance at 1,950 over the next few days. He expects the S&P 500 to eventually knock around between 2,000 to 2,040 before it will be able to establish a next breakout.

Still, his rosy view of the market comes with a warning.

“The near-term negatives are that the recent rally has left the markets overbought, and some * note that the rally has come on low volume,” he said.

Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, expects initial resistance for the S&P 500 near 1,980, which could hurt the market’s upward momentum.

Breakouts tend to be a bullish sign but this one may not get much mileage due to a lack of follow-through buying, she said.

Indeed, if the market fails to overcome near-term selling pressure, it’s not expected to see buying interest revived until the S&P 500 falls below 1,820.

“This creates a good deal of downside risk once short-term momentum deteriorates,” said Stockton.

U.S. stocks failed to extend gains from last week into Monday’s session, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.1% to 1,945 in the wake of less than stellar economic data.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #274 on: March 02, 2016, 04:49:18 AM »



+41

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #275 on: March 02, 2016, 05:47:13 AM »



1978.35


+46.12

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #276 on: March 02, 2016, 06:00:23 AM »



Worst Global Economic Data In 4 Years Sparks Stocks Best Day In 6 Months
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 16:03 -0500

Copper Crude Global Economy NASDAQ SPY


 
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Dudley's "Downside Risks" and Draghi's "No Limits" were all it took to trump the worst global macro data since 2012 (JPM Global PMI) and send stocks soaring... Some quick thoughts from (ironically) 1930...



Worst global economy since 2012...



 



Best day for Nasdaq in six months...(and best first day of a month since 2013)



 

Futures show what really happened...



 

The Dow soared over 400 points off overnight lows, surging to the lows from the first trading of 2016... Bad News Is Great News once again!

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #277 on: March 02, 2016, 06:04:02 AM »



Downside Risk Escalates As "New Highs" Falter
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 15:40 -0500

Equity Markets Japan


 
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Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog,

We have had a nice little bounce in the equity market over the past two and half weeks. Since making a multi-year low on 2/11, our GKCI United States Index has rallied by nearly 7%. From the May 2015 peak to the February trough, the index fell by almost 16%. So has the latest rally kicked the equity market correction to curb and have equity markets entered into a new bull phase? Unfortunately, one of the more reliable market internal data points is indicating to us that there is probably further downside ahead in the short-term for investors.

When at least 55% of US stocks are making new 20-day highs, this is a sign that the overall asset class is in demand and that stocks are being widely bought. In other words, this is a sign that equities are in a bull market and investors should be participating. In the chart below, we plot new 20-day highs against the GKCI United States Price Index and we have added a line at 55% to mark when new highs hit this threshold. Granted, this indicator missed the 06-07 rally (perhaps a sign of the narrowness of that bull market), but otherwise it has generally been correct in identifying when stocks are in a bull market.

One of the reasons we are holding back our enthusiasm for this latest rally is the fact that new 20-day highs only reached a peak of 33% last week and have since fallen to just 22%. This is a sign to us that the distribution phase of the correction isn’t over yet and the market hasn’t moved into a broad accumulation phase.

1 - Copy - Copy (2)

 

In addition, not only are we not seeing an expansion in new highs in the US, we aren’t seeing it anywhere in the world. New 20-day highs hit just 31% in this latest rally in Japan, 27% in the UK, and just 23% overall for all stocks in the developed market.

1 - Copy - Copy 1 - Copy (2) - Copy 1 - Copy (2)

When the market finally makes the bullish turn in earnest, we expect new 20-day highs to be an early sign post that we are headed in the right direction

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #278 on: March 02, 2016, 06:06:10 AM »



Someone Isn't "Buying" This Rally: The "Smart Money" Sells For Five Consecutive Weeks As Buybacks Soar
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 13:39 -0500

Bank of America Bank of America Bear Market Bond recovery Reuters Smart Money


 
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Many are trying to put their finger on what has precipitated today's breakout rally.

On one hand you have Reuters, saying that it is due to economic data which was so poor it "spurred stimulus hopes"...



 

... on the other you have, well, Reuters again which said the data was so strong it "points to economic recovery"...



 

... and then you have the sober voices who say it was all Gartman's doing, who as we reported today, after flopping bullish on Friday, flipped back to bearish overnight as we noted first thing this morning in a warning to the bears in "Today's Rally Explained: Gartman Is Again "Selling The Markets Short" Just Two Days After Turning Bullish."

But no matter what unleashed today's algo buying spree, one thing is clear: someone has to be buying and someone has to be selling into what, Investech yesterday explained, is the latest bear market rally.

Thanks to Bank of America we know the answer to both.

It turns out that the three groups that make up the so-called smart money, hedge funds, BofA's institutional clients as well its private clients, have been selling aggressively every week. In fact, as BofA's Jill Hall explains, "last week, during which the S&P 500 climbed 1.6%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the fifth consecutive week, in the amount of $1.5bn. This was the biggest weekly outflow since mid-December.

Hedge funds, institutional clients, and private clients alike were net sellers last week, led by hedge funds. All three groups are also now net sellers on a cumulative basis year-to-date (again, led by hedge funds). Net sales were chiefly in large caps last week, though small caps also saw outflows. Mid-caps have seen inflows for ten of the last twelve weeks, and as we recently noted, have seen the most consistent buying by our clients over the last several years despite being crowded and expensive.
This is summarized in the charts below:





 

Ok, we know the sellers. So who were the buyers? The answer is well-known:

Buybacks by our corporate clients accelerated last week, and year-to-date are tracking above levels we saw over the same period last year. The four-week average trend for buybacks by corporate clients suggests a pick-up in overall buybacks in 4Q relative to 3Q. Buybacks have been picking up again in 2016 (Chart 24)


In other words, buybacks are on pace to surpass buyback records, and since the debt issuance pipeline has to be unclogged or else risk the failure of hundreds of billions in bond bond refinancings in the coming months not to mention the collapse of the bond-buyback pathway, companies have scrambled to put a "risk on" mood on the market by repurchasing their stock, so that these same companies can issue more debt, so that they can buyback even more debt in the future

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #279 on: March 02, 2016, 06:48:07 AM »



S&P 500, Dow close with best one-day gain since January as oil rallies

By Anora Mahmudova and Wallace Witkowski
Published: Mar 1, 2016 4:36 p.m. ET

     71 
Nasdaq sees biggest percentage gain since August
Reuters
Shaking off China worries for now
U.S. stocks rallied to close higher Tuesday as investors scooped up bank and technology stocks, highlighting a renewed appetite for assets considered risky as oil stormed higher.

Bolstering investor sentiment were strong monthly auto sales and a key report from the Institute for Supply Management that showed American manufacturers shrank their business at a slower pace in February.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.11%  surged 348.58 points, or 2.1%, to close at 16,865.08, with 29 out of 30 components in positive territory. Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, +5.15%  , Apple Inc. AAPL, +3.97% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, +3.42%  led the Dow higher.


The S&P 500 SPX, +2.39%  advanced 46.12 points, or 2.4% to finish at 1,978.35, led by gains in financials, up 3.5%, and technology stocks, up 3.1%. Leaders on the S&P 500 included financial companies like Citigroup Inc. C, +6.23%  and Prudential Financial Inc. PRU, +6.39% tech companies Seagate Technology PLC STX, +5.96%  and Qorvo Inc. QRVO, +5.06%  and energy companies such as Range Resources Corp. RRC, +8.47% Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK, -1.09%  and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC, +5.69% 

It was the best one-day percentage gain for the S&P 500 and the Dow since Jan. 29. Also, the S&P 500 saw its best March start since 2002.

Benefiting from the tech rally was the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +2.89%  which gained 131.65 points, or 2.9%, to close at 4,689.60, for its best percentage gain since Aug. 26.

“It’s kind of a risk-on day, with utilities and Treasuries taking a breather,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management, and investors appeared to be playing a day of catch-up as stocks finished lower Monday as oil gained.

While stocks had been higher even as oil prices were in the red early in the session, the move strengthened as oil prices turned sharply higher.

Crude futures CLJ6, +0.41%  for April delivery settled up 1.9% at $34.40 a barrel, swinging from an earlier session loss. Oil and stocks have been mostly moving in the same direction lately, as worries about global economic growth have plagued investors.

The U.S. dollar USDJPY, +0.06%  marched higher against the yen as stocks rose in Asia and Europe. Gold settled 0.3% lower at $1,230.80 an ounce.

“The ISM report showed that manufacturing is getting worse at a slower rate, it’s still contracting. But the fact that it’s not deteriorating rapidly is reassuring to investors,” said Mike Antonelli, equity sales trader at R.W Baird & Co.

February was a split month for stocks. It was the first monthly gain for the Dow industrials since November, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each posted three straight monthly falls for the first time since 2011

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #280 on: March 02, 2016, 06:57:40 AM »



财经  2016年03月01日
华尔街示警 美企Q1获利不妙

(纽约1日讯)在美国企业力抗油价崩跌和经济成长趋缓之际,华尔街分析师已大幅下修企业今年第1季营收的预估值,显示市场悲观氛围日益浓厚。
今年初股市重挫,標准普尔500指数大幅波动,加上中国经济趋缓的不確定性,全球成长前景也黯淡无光。

根据调查机构FactSet的资料,分析师先前原本预估美企第1季每股盈余將重返正成长,年增率为0.6%,但如今最新预测是获利会衰减7.4%。

RidgeWorth投资公司资產配置部门主管盖尔表示:「在当前的低成长环境中,企业似乎难以提振获利,这对盈余造成压力。」

今年第1季获利可能大幅缩水,情况甚至比去年最后一季还惨,成为金融危机后最糟的一个財报季。企业盈余已连三季下滑,营收则是连4季减少。

先前华尔街曾看好今年企业有机会翻身,如今这项说法已备受质疑,因为油价跌至13年低点,能源业者的盈余预期將因此锐减93%,降幅比分析师两个月前所预估的还多上近一倍。市场预估標普500大企业本季营收会下滑0.6%,去年底时还预估会成长2.6%。

不利因素衝击营收

贝莱德(BlackRock)全球首席投资策略师寇斯特瑞区表示:「我们目前面临的市况是,全球成长预期趋缓、金融市场情况严峻和能源价格不断下跌。所有因素都不利于市场,当前环境也不利于企业提升营收。」

市场也预期,不管是营收还是盈余,都要到下半年才可能再现动能,恢復成长,而获利前景恶化意味股市跌幅可能继续加深

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #281 on: March 02, 2016, 09:45:49 AM »




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債王Gundlach:美股熊市反彈,短多部位擬獲利了結
回應(0) 人氣(86) 收藏(0) 2016/03/02 08:44
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-02 08:44:51 記者 賴宏昌 報導
Thomson Reuters 1日報導,「債券天王(King of Bonds)」Jeffrey Gundlach 1日在受訪時表示,3週前做多的美國股市多頭部位目前考慮部分進行獲利了結。Gundlach表示他依舊看空後市、直言過去數週美股的走勢只能視為熊市反彈。Gundlach曾在2014年獨排眾議預言美國公債殖利率將會走低,去年也曾預言油價將會走低、垃圾債將會名符其實、中國經濟增長趨緩將壓抑新興市場。標準普爾500指數在Gundlach做多的這三週期間累計上漲8%。
Gundlach掌舵的DoubleLine Capital 1日公布,2016年2月公司淨吸金22.4億美元、連續第25個月呈現淨流入。DoubleLine旗艦基金「總回報債券基金」2月淨吸金20.1億美元、使得資產規模擴增至560億美元。這檔基金主要投資不動產抵押貸款證券(Mortgage Backed Securities;MBS)。
Gundlach曾多次呼籲FED官員降低放話升息的分貝。紐約聯準銀行總裁William C. Dudley 3月1日在第一屆中國人民銀行、紐約FED聯合學術討論會上發表演說時透露,近期經濟與金融發展已令他微幅美國今年的經濟展望,若金融市場狀況持續處於緊縮狀態、他可能會大幅下修預估值。

截至2016年1月底為止紐約證交所(NYSE)股票融資餘額報4,476.81億美元、創2015年1月底以來新低,較2015年4月底的5,071.53億美元(歷史最高紀錄)下滑11.7%。作為對照,標準普爾500指數1月底收盤位置(1,940.24點)較2015年5月21日的2,130.82點(歷史最高收盤紀錄)下跌8.9%。
MarketWatch 2月19日報導,InvesTech Research總裁Jim Stack指出,融資餘額觸頂的時間點大約與股市作頭時點相當接近。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。


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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #282 on: March 02, 2016, 02:22:38 PM »



Three Weeks After Buying Stocks, Gundlach Is Cashing Out Again: "I'm Bearish"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 17:51 -0500

Bear Market Bond Central Banks Dennis Gartman Gundlach Jeff Gundlach Reuters


 
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it was just last Friday, when roughly at the same time that Dennis Gartman flipflopped to bullish (just as the rally stalled, and just before turning bearish again ahead of today's torrid rally) we reported that in what came as a surprise to us, that just as Jeff Gundlach was warning about the impending failure of central banks, the lack of a "bullish case for oil", about a bear market for stocks, and about an imminent surge in gold in early February, the DoubleLine manager was buying stocks.

As Reuters first reported, Jeffrey Gundlach "said on Friday that his firm purchased some U.S. stocks two weeks ago after their rocky start in January."

His reasoning was simple: buy the bear market rally.

"I thought it was a good buy point two weeks ago Wednesday and so we bought some," Gundlach told Reuters. Gundlach, who oversees $90 billion in assets for the Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, said the firm was at "maximum underweight" since last August.
Two days later, and following the biggest rally to start the month of March in history, Gundlach is happy to count his profits and once again cash out.

In an interview with Reuters Jennifer Ablan after DoubleLine Capital's February flow figures were released (it was a $2.2 billion inflow) , Gundlach said the firm is now considering closing out some of its long positions in the stocks that they purchased three weeks ago.



Is the bond trader now just a closet equities daytrader? We wond't know, but since the S&P 500 has jumped 8% in that period, why not takes some profits.

"That's what we're talking about," Gundlach said about booking some gains after their short-term rally.

Gundlach still maintains that the U.S. stock market is in a bear market but had made those equity purchases because the conditions in the second week of February with "wickedly negative equity sentiment were such that risk/reward favored a potential tradable rally and also made such a low allocation less advisable."

The time to buy the dip, however, has passed: "I am bearish. There are just wiggles and jiggles in the markets.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #283 on: March 03, 2016, 04:52:43 AM »



+5

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #284 on: March 03, 2016, 05:54:35 AM »


Dr. Not So Doom: Marc Faber says stocks may rally
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
9 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Marc Faber, the investor who has made a name on pessimistic market calls, said Wednesday he believes stocks are "extremely oversold" and could be poised for a rally.
To be sure, the editor and publisher of The Gloom, Doom & Boom Report confirmed he believes the stock weakness at the beginning of the year was just the start of more bad things to come, but in the nearer term, he is more bullish.

"The market in February became extremely oversold, and from this extremely oversold position, we can have a relatively strong rally," Faber told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The S&P 500 ended February down 0.42 percent, extending a three-month losing streak in its worst start to a year since 2009. The Dow closed the month slightly higher, up 0.3 percent.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The Trade: Smoother stock investing ahead
In particular, momentum stocks got hit hard, and can move higher from current prices, Faber said. The oil sector could "easily rebound" by 10 to 20 percent, he added.

"That could drive the market up to maybe around 2,050, but I don't necessarily see new highs, and if new highs happen, they will happen with very few stocks participating," he said.

But Faber is not so not gloomy: After that near-term rally, he expects another decline around the globe.

The global economy is slowing down considerably, he said, and it is unlikely the United States can maintain a better growth trajectory in the face of weakness elsewhere

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #285 on: March 03, 2016, 05:55:31 AM »



1986.45


+8.1

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #286 on: March 03, 2016, 06:05:35 AM »




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Can US Equities Go Green For The Year?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/02/2016 13:15 -0500

CBOE China Crude Detroit Donald Trump Equity Markets Federal Reserve Google headlines Housing Starts Investor Sentiment Nomination None Personal Income Recession Unemployment Yield Curve


 
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Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,

With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: “Can U.S. equities go green on the year?”  The S&P 500 is now down “just” 3.2% in 2016 and there’s nothing like a +2% one-day rally to hold out hope of actual gains before March 31.
 
To think through this question, we outline the scenarios that DO push equities higher (a good jobs number, a quiescent Fed, and good economic data) and compare them to those that DON’T (presidential politics, oil prices, and corporate fundamentals). To our thinking, it’s a coin toss either way.  For the bullish camp, we recommend Financials – laggards YTD, but set for a rally based on the catalysts that might move markets higher. And for the bears: the biggest winners YTD (Utilities, Staples and Telecomm) along with gold and Treasuries.
Nothing is working the way it’s supposed to, at least lately. Just consider a few of yesterday’s headlines:

On Valentine’s day, a Google autonomous car had an accident because its algorithms assumed an oncoming bus would let it into the flow of traffic. Apparently the software engineers who wrote the code were unaware that California bus drivers follow the same rules of the road as NYC cabs and the Pirates of the Caribbean – give no quarter, and expect none in return. A Financial Times article on the mishap led with this distinctly downbeat assessment: “Experts warned that a lack of social awareness meant that it would be a long time before autonomous vehicles can navigate the streets completely safely alongside humans”.
 
Donald Trump, as reviled among the elites as he is adored by his followers, seems set to be the Republican Party’s choice for President. What happened to Citizens United making U.S. politics a simple exercise in billionaire and corporate crowdfunding of the election process? If that were really the case, it would be Jeb Bush set to win big tonight, not the Donald.
 
Don’t tell Detroit that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a recession or even that a choppy stock market will ding sales. New car and truck sales for February came in at an annualized selling rate of 17.9 million, up 11% from last year.
 
The biggest surprise of the day, however, was a 2.4% rally in the S&P 500. Moreover, the CBOE VIX Index closed at 17.7, its lowest level of the year. The news flow behind this move was relatively light. A more cautious outlook from NY Fed President Dudley, a less-bad ISM number, and stable crude prices all helped. And then there’s the market lore about the first day of every month being a time when managers put new money to work.
With 21 days left in the first quarter of 2016, it is time to ask an even more unexpected question: can U.S. stocks turn positive on the year?  Yes, I’ve been skeptical of the recent move but the tape trumps opinions, no matter how heartfelt they may be.  So we’ll break this down into 2 scenarios: one where the S&P does go green on the year and one where it doesn’t.

The playbook for beating the market in a continued rally anchors on three basic assumptions.  They are:

The Federal Reserve comes out of their March 15-16 meeting with a clearer message about their plans for Fed Fund rate increases in 2016. Fed Funds futures – and by extension, equities – have made up their mind: there is only a 59% chance of any rate increase by the end of the year.  Now, we just need the Fed to agree.  That seems like a long shot in a “Data dependent” world, so the best we can hope for is a statement that recognizes downside and upside risks.
 
The U.S. economy ends the quarter on a strong note. We’re big fans of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which has been surprisingly sanguine about Q1 economic growth through much of this quarter. Even after a few hits to the estimate from weaker ISM data today, GDPNow still expects 1.9% growth this quarter. There are only 6 more data points that matter to this model between now and the end of the month: International Trade (March 4), Wholesale Trade (March 9), Retail Trade (March 15), Housing Starts (March 16), Advanced Durable Goods (March 24) and Personal Income/Outlays (March 28).  After that, whatever the model predicts is the number, for good or for bad.
 
A decent Jobs Number on Friday. I can’t help but think that NY Fed President Dudley’s cautious comments today do not come in isolation from the Friday Jobs Report, where economists expect 190,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. Employment is a notoriously lagging indicator, so one month’s weakness isn’t the end of the world. Still, with U.S. equity markets on a tear from the lows last month they will likely want to have their cake and eat it too: a good jobs number AND an accommodative Fed.
What to buy in this scenario?  Financials seem the most obvious pick.  First, they are the worst performing group in the S&P 500 year to date. Also, a more restrained Federal Reserve that seems willing to accept slightly higher inflation to preserve global financial stability should allow the yield curve to steepen. That helps investor sentiment on the sector. Layer on a rising equity tide for European financials, and you have a trifecta of reasonable catalysts.

The other side of the macro coin isn’t the simple reverse of the optimistic case:

The oddball political environment surrounding the U.S. presidential election has thus far been more water cooler fodder than investment consideration; that seems set to change between tonight’s “Super Tuesday” results and March 15 Republican primaries. To read the political commentary, a Donald Trump nomination is something akin to all 10 Plagues of Egypt descending on America simultaneously. Yes, offshore oddsmakers put the chances of a Trump win at less than 30%, but where would those have been a year ago?
 
Oil prices are still the “Dog” in this market, and equities are the “tail”. And both have been on an e-ticket ride from the lows. Has the fundamental story for oil changed dramatically over that time?  Maybe – chatter from oil producing countries about curtailing oversupply has helped.  But if oil prices pull back, it is hard to see equities rallying. This, by the way, is where China fits into our bull-bear tug of war.  It will be hard to interpret a sudden pullback in oil as anything other than fresh concerns over that oil-consuming economy.
 
U.S. corporate fundamentals are still sloppy. Revenue growth for companies with international operations will be negative in Q1, for example. Earnings estimates still seem too high: S&P has a $26.43 number for the S&P 500 for Q1, up from last year’s $25.81. That compares to the recently reported Q4 numbers, where EPS went from $26.75 in 2014 to $23.50 for 2015. Analysts typically wait until the last minute to reduce their estimates, so we aren’t out of the woods when it comes to earnings revision.
In this scenario, it is the market leaders YTD that should shine: Utilities (+6.5%), Telecomm (+3.9%) and Consumer Staples (+1.8%).  Other assets that have done well – Gold (up 16.1%) and long dated Treasuries (+6.5%) – should also be winners.

In short, I see the chances of each scenario as roughly balanced.  And there’s no saying that a straight shot higher for U.S. equities is even sustainable. After all, we’re just in the first innings of this game.  There’s a long way to go in 2016. Better to let equities digest both stories – pro and con – for the remainder of Q1. There’s still a long way to go

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #287 on: March 03, 2016, 06:37:06 AM »


One Hedge Funds Warns The Market Will (Again) Be Sharply Disappointed By The ECB
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/02/2016 13:53 -0500

Bond Deutsche Bank Equity Markets European Central Bank Japan LTRO March FOMC Monetary Policy Steven Englander


 
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In the aftermath of this weekend's disappointing G-20 summit in Shanghai in which the much anticipated "grand Chinese devaluation" was not only not discussed, but any abrupt devaluation was taken off the table (if only for the time being), the market has shifted its attention to the next big policy event, which is the March 10 ECB announcement where much more easing is already priced in.

As we added following our G-20 summary, "the next big move in the market is now entirely in Mario Draghi's hands" citing Citi's Steven Englander, who said laid out the possible outcomes as follows:

The ECB is in focus. EZ is undershooting on growth and inflation, and ECB President Draghi has been impassioned on the need to provide more stimulus. If they lowball or grudgingly meet expectations, we could face another December 4 move because market participants will see it as the equivalent of a ‘last ease in the cycle announcement’, basically ECB throwing in the towel. If they move aggressively (and take measures beyond vanilla QE and 10bps on rates), they will catch market off guard and unwind the view that policymakers see themselves as powerless.
We think it will be the former, which brings to mind the warning we posted on December 2, when citing MarketNews we wrote that "Mario Draghi May "Under-Deliver" Tomorrow, MNI Warns":

Draghi has been priming markets for action since October, saying the ECB will do what it must to raise inflation as quickly as possible, and investors are betting that the probability of a deposit-rate cut is 100 percent. Now, even with some officials voicing misgivings, his Governing Council may find that only a rate reduction combined with increased bond purchases and possibly as-yet unannounced tools will prove convincing enough.
The December 3 "shock" in which the ECB ended up doing almost nothing, and which unleashed the biggest EURUSD move higher since the announcement of QE1, while Bunds and and macro hedge funds P&Ls plunged, is still fresh in all traders' minds.

Which is why the ECB may be trapped.

Having not only set expectations sky-high once again, but also forced to cover for the G-20 disappointment, Draghi will have to unveil a massive bazooka, one which combines both more QE with even more negative rates. Only in the aftermath of the BOJ NIRP fiasco, will the ECB dare to push rates lower yet again to -0.40% or more, having seen the dramatic reaction by the financial sector in both Europe and Japan following the recent rate cuts?

According to one hedge fund, Francesco Filia's Fasanara Capital, as a result of the high expectations ahead of the ECB meeting next week, there is potential for disappointment, especially on banks as the fund's CIO believes the advent of even more NIPR will unleash the next leg lower in European financials. Here are his thoughts:

Market recovering strongly ahead of ECB meeting next week, possibly a déjà vu’ of December meeting, potential for disappointment.
 
Market discounting ECB to intervene boldly, via a combination of increased QE, LTRO, depo rate cut, without collateral damage caused on banks by deeply negative interest rates.
 
As banks performed strongly in recent days, market may think the recent complaining about negative rates by top banks’ executives across Europe has been heard.
 
On the contrary, we believe deeply negative rates are coming, and are an inescapable negative for the banking sector, leading to overall weak equity markets post ECB.
 
ECB remains committed to continue on path of negative rates, as today’s communication by ECB officials confirms:
 
ECB’s Cœuré defends negative rates
 
2016-03-02 . From JPM Research: this morning, the ECB governor gave a speech in which he defended negative interest rates. He acknowledged a possible drag on bank profits if lending rates fall more than deposit rates (which are sticky at the zero bound). He added that the ECB is well aware of the issue and that it is "studying carefully the schemes used in other jurisdictions to mitigate possible adverse consequences for the bank lending channel." But, he then pushed back against the "narrative that banks' challenges flow largely from our monetary policy." He argued that banks have been able to offset declining interest revenues with higher lending volumes, lower interest expense, lower risk provisions and capital gains. For example, he said that the net interest income of Euro area banks increased last year as they refinanced high-yield liabilities at low rates. And he said that negative rates complement the ECB's QE programme, which has been positive for asset prices, credit risk and lending volumes. He finished by saying that banks would be worse off if the ECB does not respond to global growth uncertainties, as stagnant output and falling prices are bad for their profits
 
ECB’s Lautenschlaeger defends negative rates
 
2016-03-02 . From Bloomberg: ECB Encourages Banks to Diversify Revenue Pool on Low Rates. Banks struggling to make a profit in an environment of low interest rates should diversify their revenue pool, European Central Bank Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said. “It’s not my task to find a viable business model for each and every bank,” but “having a diversified revenue pool is always very good,” she said in an interview in New York late Tuesday. “You can see that banks are increasing their fee income right now, that they change their business model to shorter maturities when they lend in order to be able to change faster when the interest-rate environment changes again.”
Which brings to mind the report Deutsche Bank wrote less than a month ago, on February 6, when its stock was plumbing record lows, and in which it begged the ECB to stop cutting rates. Recall:

The BOJ surprised with a move to negative rates last week, while ECB rhetoric suggests additional easing measures forthcoming in March. While a fundamental tenet of these measures, in particular negative rates, has been to push investors out the risk spectrum, we remind that arguably the impact has been exactly the opposite.
This in turn reminds us of what was the biggest catalyst for the February swoon: the fear that central bankers have run out of ammo since their preferred method of intervention, namely negative rates, has direct and immediate downward consequences on financial assets, which then spread contagiously (and instantly) to all other sectors.

Since absolutely nothing has changed since then, we are confident Fasanara will end up right, and the entire rally over the past two weeks which has been predicated first on hopes of a massive G-20 stimulus, and which then was "transferred" to hope that Draghi will somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat, will be unwound, resetting the entire cycle, especially with the March FOMC meeting fast approaching and this time threatening not with more easing but with another 25 basis point of tightening following the recent "strong" economic data... at least according to Reuters' revised headline.



 

How to trade this?

For those who are worried about shorting stocks, that leaves two possible trades to bet on disappointment: one is to go long the EURUSD ahead of the ECB, and the other is to short the German 2Y Bund. As the chart below reminds us, what happened in the December disappointment was the 2Y yield soaring by 15 bps to the ECB's discount rate in milliseconds. This time around the spread is 25 bps, a spread which will be closed instantly the second Draghi once again fails to present the much anticipated bazooka

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #288 on: March 03, 2016, 01:41:33 PM »




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標普500自低點彈9%!美股翻身真相是垃圾債回春?
回應(0) 人氣(21) 收藏(0) 2016/03/03 12:50
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-03 12:50:37 記者 陳苓 報導
美股連日走高,隨著美國總統大選前哨戰出現「超級星期二」行情。巴倫(Barronˋs)網站解讀是,這波走勢和政局關係不大,主要是債市情況好轉,高收益債券(即垃圾債)重獲關愛,股市跟著一飛沖天。
巴倫2日報導,企業債、特別是高收債翻身,從2月11日的低點起漲,股市沾光飆升。過去幾週來,企業債和政府公債的殖利率利差大幅縮減,推升公司債價格,股價也水漲船高。Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors投資長Marty Fridson說,2月11日,美銀美林高收債指數的選擇權調整利差(Option Adjusted Spread、OAS),從777個基點暴衝到887個基點,創下新高,股市狂瀉。2月底利差縮減至768個基點,股市情況隨之好轉。
利差縮小,二月下半高收債報酬轉正,達4.24%,相關基金再獲青睞。Lipper數據顯示,2月24日為止當週,高收債基金吸金27億美元,遠高於前週的6,500萬美元。與此同時,標普500指數也從2月11日低點大漲近9%,Wilshire Associates估計,美股攀升,投資人財富因此多出1.9兆美元。

為什麼企業債復活,有利股市?原因可能是股票回購為牛市主要推手,企業多需發債籌資,實施庫藏股。巴克萊證券策略師Jonathan Glionna指出,有了債市配合,企業才能持續發債買回庫藏股;現金流減少、債市不易籌資,回購股票將暫停。倘若企業紛紛減少購買庫藏股,股市修正可能會惡化為崩盤。
MarketWatch去年11月30日報導,部分人士把垃圾債當成股市景氣明燈,資金撤出垃圾債時,往往意味投資人也會開始賣股。「McClellan Market Report」投資通訊出版者Tom McClellan表示,許多人以為高收益企業債的表現一如其他債券,其實高收債和股票比較像;高收債出問題,是流動性枯竭的可靠訊號,股市可能將有風暴。
McClellan這麼說有其依據。分析FactSet資料發現,過去15年來,巴克萊美國高收益企業債指數(Barclays U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index)和標普500指數的每日連動性,超過高收債指數和巴克萊美國整體債券指數(Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index)的連動性。前者是0.525、後者是0.334。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #289 on: March 04, 2016, 04:53:16 AM »



+6

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #290 on: March 04, 2016, 05:37:03 AM »



1993.4


+6.95

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #291 on: March 05, 2016, 04:53:51 AM »



+7

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #292 on: March 05, 2016, 05:43:12 AM »



1999.99


+6.59

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #293 on: March 05, 2016, 05:50:11 AM »



Major bubble just burst, and that’s good for stocks: UBS
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #294 on: March 05, 2016, 05:51:57 AM »



Keep buying despite 40% chance of recession: Pro
Matt Clinch   | @mattclinch81
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The environment for investing has seen a radical shift in sentiment this year but Beat Wittmann, partner at independent financial advisory firm Porta Advisors, is urging clients to buy more risk assets instead of worrying about a potential recession.

"Absolutely," he told CNBC Friday when asked whether investors should regain exposure to equities after a period of considerable outflows at the start of the year. His bullish call comes despite his belief that there's a sizeable chance of the world economy slipping into another recession.


Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
"I think ... the probability (of a recession) is 30 to 40 percent and then recession, what does recession mean really? Is it a soft landing?," he said.

The most likely scenario for Wittmann is a period of lower growth, low inflation and low interest rates rather than gross domestic product figures lurching into negative territory. He spoke of a "resilient" U.S. economy that would be able to withstand a lack of business confidence and reminded investors that a major tailwind for many countries is the low oil price.
An interest rate hike in the U.S., growth concerns over China and an eye-popping plunge in the price of oil have all added to jitters in global markets since the start of 2016. It was a brutal start to the year and investors just finding their footing after waves of selling.
The Dow Jones industrial average has flirted with correction territory but is now down 2.7 percent year-to-date after clawing back some losses. The S&P 500 has seen a similar pattern. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, is technically now out of bear market territory but has still seen a 17 percent fall from its 52-week high. The index is also on pace for its third straight positive week for the first time since its 3-week streak ending in June last year.

10 safe havens during the market 'death spiral'

Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Mario Draghi
Negative rates? QE? What's in Draghi's bazooka?
Sir Mervyn King, Former Governor of Bank of England.
Another financial crisis is imminent: Ex-BoE Gov

Wittmann has continued his bullish stance despite being wrong-footed in November 2015 when making a similar call on global markets. On November 10, the asset manager predicted to CNBC a stellar year-end rally in equities despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected hike of its benchmark interest rate off record lows. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index actually lost 2.4 percent during that period, with the S&P 500 losing around 1.7 percent.
However, his call echoes the greater indecision and uncertainty in the investment community after years of monetary easing. Citi analysts claimed on February 5 that the global economy was seemingly trapped in a "death spiral" that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market.
Meanwhile, strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that recession fears are creating an extended stock market sell-off and an opportunity for investors ready to pounce. They have also urged clients to bet against the recent rally in gold prices, saying that market moves have been an "overreaction.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #295 on: March 05, 2016, 05:53:04 AM »



Major bubble just burst, and that’s good for stocks: UBS
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
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A major bubble in the market just burst for the bears, according to one Wall Street strategist.

On CNBC's "Fast Money" Wednesday, UBS' Julian Emanuel said that better-than-expected U.S. data and a stable Chinese yuan has led to a popping of the global "negativity bubble," and that could drive equities significantly higher in March.

"Essentially, people were defensively positioned coming in to 2016," explained Emanuel, who serves as executive director for U.S. equity and derivatives strategy at UBS. "Then, all of a sudden, the numbers started to get a little bit better."

Read MoreI see bubbles everywhere: Top academic

Positive U.S. data includes January overall retail sales, which rose 0.2 percent, while GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 grew at an annualized rate of 1 percent. Additionally, the U.S. dollar hit a new one-month high on Tuesday.

Emanuel also cited jobs data as evidence that the U.S. will not head into recession. Despite slight rises in February, U.S. initial jobless claims remain near cycle lows at 272,000 while unemployment is at 4.9 percent, the lowest level since 2008. While UBS contends that a spike to 350,000 jobless claims would trigger alarm bells, the firm says that no such spike seems to be in sight. Historically, spikes have occurred during recessions dating back to 1991, 2001 and 2009.


Emanuel also cited the Supply Management Manufacturing PMI, which is below 60 but still holding well above 45, otherwise known as "the danger zone."

"That data doesn't show expansion, but it's just a little bit better than what we're expecting. [From there] you get an outsized market reaction to the upside," said Emanuel.
And, despite depressed sentiment, tightening financial conditions, a shaky political backdrop and elevated volatility in assets and earnings, the firm still believes that markets are poised for gains and "remains comfortable" with an S&P 500 2016 year-end price target of 2,175, which is among the most bullish on Wall Street. That's a nearly 10 percent rise from the current price of around 1,986.
Read MoreHow to trade battered growth stocks
"A turn has happened in February where assets from the Mexican peso to unleaded gas to retail stocks in the S&P all turned together," said Emanuel. He noted that, overall, the investor mentality has changed and, with small pieces of good news, that the rally will carry on regardless of concerns over instability.
He therefore expects the Fed to remain on course for additional rate hikes in 2016. In order for volume in the markets to pick up, Emanuel feels interest rates need to move higher, and is therefore encouraged at the prospect of more icnreases.
"We're only looking for two [rate hikes], in September and December," said Emanuel. "The Fed is not going to [raise] until it feels good and ready to go."

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #296 on: March 05, 2016, 08:05:42 AM »



Stocks Surge On Biggest Bear Market Short-Squeeze Since Nov 2008
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/04/2016 16:07 -0500

Aussie Bear Market Bond Brazil China Copper Credit Suisse Crude Glencore headlines High Yield Russell 2000 Shenzhen


 
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They are pulling out all the stops on this one...



 

Another chaotically wild week...

Small Caps (Russell 2000) up 4.65% - biggest week since Oct 2014


S&P 500 up 3% - best week in 3 months
Dow Transports up 3.7% - best week since Dec 2015
"Most Shorted" stocks up 8.8% - biggest short squeeze since Nov 2008 (and in 3 weeks "Most Shorted" are up 19.8% - the most ever)


HYG (high yield bond ETF) up 2.3% - best week in 5 months (best 3 weeks since Dec 2011)
2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y biggest weekly surge in yields in 4 months
7Y biggest weekly surge in yields in 9 months
Aussie Dollar soared 4.25%  - the biggest week since Dec 2011
Oil up 9.6% this week - 2nd biggest week since August
Oil up 21.2% in 2 weeks - biggest 2 weeks since Jan 2009
Copper up 7.2% - biggest week since Dec 2011
Gold up 3.5% to 13 month highs
Silver up 5.8% - biggest week since May 2015
 

Ahead of China's National People's Congress, Chinese stocks were 'lifted', but as is clear, the intervention was aimed at mega caps and not the tech-heavy small caps of ChiNext and Shenzhen...



 

Which lifted stocks into the payrolls print...and then the chaos began



 

After the initial weakness, stock were panic-bought only to snap at 2pmET on possible Fed limits on banks...



 

Dow tops 17000 at the close, but S&P lost 2000 right at the bell... closing at 1999.99!!

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #297 on: March 05, 2016, 08:08:32 AM »



Weekend Reading: Is The Bear Market Over Already?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/04/2016 16:35 -0500

30 Year Treasury Apple Bear Market Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Bill Gross Bond Doug Kass Fail Gundlach High Yield Janus Capital Jeffrey Saut Milton Friedman Nouriel Nouriel Roubini Raymond James Reuters Twitter Twitter Tyler Durden


 
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Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“The Bear Market Is Dead, Long Live The Bull.”

You could almost hear the chants from the always bullish biased media this week as the markets ripped higher on “first day of the month” portfolio rebalancing and short-covering by fund managers.

The rally, as discussed this past weekend, was not unexpected:

“The good news is that the market was able to break above 1940, and the 50-dma, which now clears the way for a push to the 1970-1990 where the next levels of resistance will be found.
 
The bad news is that the markets are once again extremely overbought and still confined inside of an overall downtrend.”
(Chart updated through Thursday close)

SP500-MarketUpdate-030416-2

Is this rally, which looks a whole lot like other rallies we have seen repeatedly in recent months, a true return to a bull market? Or is this another trap being set by the bears?

While it is too early to know for sure, with risks still mounted to the downside a little extra caution might not be a bad idea.

This week’s reading list takes a look at various views on the market, economy and what to expect next. What is interesting is that being overly bullish at the moment carries more portfolio risk (loss of capital if you wrong) than being bearish (missing out on early gains).

1) This Is A * Rally by Michael Kahn via Barron’s

“Chip Anderson, president of StockCharts.com, wrote in a recent newsletter to users that current “emotional short-term reactions are really just part of a larger pattern.” According to his analysis, “The market has topped and is generally moving lower based on a rounding top pattern and the downward movement of the 40-week (200-day) moving average.“
Michael-Kahn-030316

But Also Read: Bears Have Their Backs Against The Wall by Avi Gilburt via MarketWatch

And Read: Top 10 Reasons Investors Should Sell Now by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets

2)  March Is Best Chance For Market Rally by Sue Chang via MarketWatch

“March may be the best chance yet for an S&P 500 rally if you ask Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. History and an energy shift at the market’s gut level could be the triggers.
 
Saut believes the stock market bottomed in February. ‘The first week of March should see the market’s ‘internal energy’ rebuilt for another try on the upside,’ he said in a report.”
But Also Read: March Madness by Lance Roberts via RIA

SP500-Best-WorthMonth-Analysis-030116

3) Weak Economic Data Aligns With Market by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital

“The shorter-term data tracked by our market model has seen noticeable improvement over the past two weeks. The longer-term picture, looking out weeks and months, continues to be concerning. Therefore, until more meaningful improvement starts to surface, our allocations will continue to have a defensive slant.”
Also Read: Two Reasons Stocks Are Headed Higher by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times

But Don’t Miss: 2008 Revisited by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate

4) Three Weeks Later, Gundlach Cashes Out Of Rally by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge

“In an interview with Reuters Jennifer Ablan after DoubleLine Capital’s February flow figures were released (it was a $2.2 billion inflow) , Gundlach said the firm is now considering closing out some of its long positions in the stocks that they purchased three weeks ago.
 
Is the bond trader now just a closet equities daytrader? We wond’t know, but since the S&P 500 has jumped 8% in that period, why not takes some profits.
 
“That’s what we’re talking about,” Gundlach said about booking some gains after their short-term rally.
 
Gundlach still maintains that the U.S. stock market is in a bear market but had made those equity purchases because the conditions in the second week of February with “wickedly negative equity sentiment were such that risk/reward favored a potential tradable rally and also made such a low allocation less advisable.”
 
The time to buy the dip, however, has passed: “I am bearish. There are just wiggles and jiggles in the markets.“
Also Read: The Best Offense Is A Good Defense by Adam Koos via MarketWatch

CHART OF THE DAY: McCellan Oscillator Over 90 by Northman Trader

Northman-McClellan-Oscillator-030316

5) Sunshine, Lollipops And… by Bill Gross via Janus Capital

“If negative interest rates fail to generate acceptable nominal growth, then the Milton Friedman/Ben Bernanke concept of helicopter money may be employed. How that could equitably be distributed nationally or worldwide I have no idea, but the opinion columns are mentioning it more and more often, and on Twitter, the “Likes” are increasing in numbers. Can any/all of these policy alternatives save the “system”? We shall find out, but current evidence of the past 7 years’ experience would support only a D+ report card grade. Barely passing. As an investor though – and as a citizen in this election year – you should be aware that our finance based economic system which like the Sun has provided life and productive growth for a long, long time – is running out of fuel and that its remaining time span is something less than 5 billion years.
 
Investment implications? Do not reach for the tantalizing apple of high yield or the low price/ book ratio of bank stocks. Those prices are where they are because of low/negative interest rates. And too, do not reach for the seemingly momentum driven higher prices of Bunds and Treasuries that negative yields have produced. A 30 year Treasury at 2.5% can wipe out your annual income in one day with a 10 basis point increase. And no, you can’t go to a bank and demand your cash for a fear of being labeled a terrorist. Seems like you’re cornered, doesn’t it?“

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #298 on: March 05, 2016, 08:16:56 AM »



Bulls feel vindicated by stock market’s 3-week rally

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: Mar 4, 2016 3:50 p.m. ET

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S&P 500, Dow at highest levels in two months
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A “rip-your-face-off” rally over the past three weeks on Wall Street, which has taken the main indexes to their highest levels in two months, appears to vindicate the bulls.

“So far, I am still sticking with my call that we are in a middle of a bear market, but if the market breaches the 10-month moving average and holds it, then I would have to change my mind.”
Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at R.W Baird & Co.
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.33%  has rallied 9% since Feb 11 while the Russell 2000 RUT, +0.55%  had a more impressive 13.1% bounce from its lows — mainly thanks to a 35% rebound in crude-oil prices CLJ6, +5.03%

The market now is at an inflection point — it is much harder to call this a bear market, generally defined by a fall of 20% or more from bull-market highs, but too soon to say equities are out of the woods.


“At the beginning of the year there was a lot of fear that we were heading toward a recession. And when data by mid-February did not confirm that, investors rushed back into the market,” said Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at R.W Baird & Co., who last months joined the ‘bears’ club.

Also read: White House trumpets stock-market gains under Obama

“So far, I am still sticking with my call that we are in a middle of a bear market, but if the market breaches the 10-month moving average and holds it, then I would have to change my mind,” Antonelli said.

It is not uncommon for bear markets to have fast and furious rallies, just like bull markets constantly have corrections.

But big double-digit gains in financials, energy and transportation stocks since their lows in late January — and generally considered as leading indicators — gives bulls hope.

“The economy, as evidence by today’s jobs report, is doing well, but the worries that had spooked the investors earlier this year are still there,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones, who advocated remaining invested earlier this year.

“The market will end the year higher, but it will not be a smooth ride and we might have more volatility along the way, especially when the Fed raises rates this year,” Warne said.

The U.S. economy added 242,000 jobs in February, while core consumer prices continue to climb at a healthy clip, suggesting the Federal Reserve is likely to justify further rate increases this year.

“I was never in the camp of those who were calling for a recession. Data are clear about slow but positive growth. But the question is what multiple are investors willing to pay for about $120 a share earnings on the S&P 500, and what if that estimates are lowered down by the end of the year, Antonelli said.

According to FactSet data, the consensus full-year 2016 estimate for the S&P 500 is $122 per share, with investors paying a 17 times multiple for 12-month forward earnings, which is still above 10-year average at 14.

Warne, however, is more optimistic about earnings, saying they are likely to be upgraded by the end of the year. “Estimates came down too much and we expect analysts to raise those estimates as we think stabilizing oil prices will no longer depress earnings of energy companies,” she said.

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Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Reply #299 on: March 05, 2016, 02:40:53 PM »



LEICESTER CITY’S IMPOSSIBLE EPL CHARGE, PLAYS ON THE BIG BOARD .GIVEN FOR DEAD BULL NOW ON PACE FOR RECORD SETTING RUN, BACKED BY THE BEST THEEE WEEKS STRECHT SINCE 2014
Our Reporter | March 5, 2016
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Investors spent the first six weeks of the year concerned the economy stood on the precipice of a recession. Now they’re enjoying the best three-week stretch for U.S. stocks since 2014.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 2.7 percent over five days, bringing its run during the past three weeks to 7.3 percent. A surge in hiring delivered a vote of confidence in the world’s largest economy, while oil’s rebound from a 12-year low eased deflation concerns and recent actions in China added to optimism the nation can tamp down volatility that’s roiled global markets. Together, it added up to a third straight week of S&P 500 advances that topped 1.5 percent, the longest stretch with gains of that size since 2009.

When you move from fears of a recession to ‘Hey, we’re not going to a recession,’ we can get some strong moves,” said Ed Crotty, Seattle-based chief investment officer at Davidson Investment Advisors, which oversees $1.7 billion. “This jobs report is a bit of a follow-through that the economy is not falling apart.”

While better-than-forecast data from manufacturing to construction spending provided the catalyst for the market gains, technical signals accelerated the rally. Chart-watchers saw the S&P 500 close above the index’s average price for the past 50 and 100 days for the first time in 2016, as the index jumped to 1,999.99, 2.2 percent below where it started the year