Author Topic: TANKER RATES  (Read 1165 times)

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TANKER RATES
« on: January 14, 2016, 03:40:40 PM »



Tanker Rates Tumble As Last Pillar Of Strength In Oil Market Crashes
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 18:55 -0500

Carry Trade China Crude Middle East


 
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If there was one silver-lining in the oil complex, it was the demand for VLCCs (as huge floating storage facilities or as China scooped up 'cheap' oil to refill their reserves) which drove tanker rates to record highs. Now, as Bloomberg notes so eloquently, it appears the party is over! Daily rates for benchmark Saudi Arabia-Japan VLCC cargoes have crashed 53% year-to-date to $50,955 (as it appears China's record crude imports have ceased).

In fact the rate crashed 12% today for the 12th straight daily decline from over $100,000 just a month ago...



China imported a record amount of crude last year as oil’s lowest annual average price in more than a decade spurred stockpiling and boosted demand from independent refiners.

China's crude imports last month was equivalent to 7.85 million barrels a day, 6 percent higher than the previous record of 7.4 million in April, Bloomberg calculations show.



China has exploited a plunge in crude prices by easing rules to allow private refiners, known as teapots, to import crude and by boosting shipments to fill emergency stockpiles. The nation’s overseas purchases may rise to 370 million metric tons this year, surpassing estimated U.S. imports of about 363 million tons, according to Li Li, a research director with ICIS China, an industry researcher.

But given the crash in tanker rates - and implicitly demand - that "boom" appears to be over.

Shipbroker analysts blame fewer January cargoes and oil companies using their own vessels for shipment as the main reasons for the dramatic decline. As Bloomberg adds,

Oil tanker earnings boomed thanks to the very thing that drove down crude prices: an abundance of supply that made ship-fuel cheaper and shipments plentiful. This month, shipbrokers report a slump in spot cargoes from the Middle East.
 
While they say it would be premature to suggest that has implications for the region’s output, the plunge in rates shows just how sensitive owners are to monthly fluctuations in shipments.
The good news after all this carnage is that, even before today's plunge, collapsing tanker rates were already pushing economics for floating storage (the carry trade) closer to be proditable.

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2016, 09:06:52 AM »



星洲网首頁 > 財經 > 大馬
油價船運費齊跌‧大馬散裝貨運前景蒙塵
2016-01-16 17:15     

 
(吉隆坡16日訊)波羅的海乾散貨指數(BDI)上周四下跌至394點新低水平,以及油價在每桶30美元水平苦苦掙扎,布蘭特油價在周三一度跌至每桶29.93美元的12年新低,這令大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組)前景蒙上陰影。
該公司首席執行員郭孔光指出,散裝貨運正面對雙重打擊。
他在簡短的電話訪談中對《TheEdge》表示,“不幸的是我們原本希望可帶來緩沖的油氣領域,卻經歷大跌,但每個行業都有周期,我們必須撐過去。"他強調,“乾散貨市場受產能過剩打擊已不是秘密,我們須渡過此難關,任何的衰退,終將會復甦。"郭孔光也是太平洋船運(Pacific Carriers)的執行主席,后者為大馬散裝貨運的最大股東,持有34.46%股權。
BDI崩跌,令散裝貨運業墜入深淵。目前海岬型船運費約每天3千600美元,去年平均為9千零60美元。由於前景黯淡,大馬散裝貨運股價在上周四跌至78仙――這是自2003年12月上市以來的最低水平。
郭孔光說,“新建船只的問題困擾市場。我不認為過剩情況會快速解除。或許要到2017或2018年,當新建船停止和拆船增加,最近有更多拆船活動。"(星洲日報/財經‧The Edge專版


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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2016, 07:20:48 AM »



What If The Imploding Baltic Dry Index Does Reflect Global Trade After All
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 13:47 -0500

Baltic Dry Central Banks


 
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Earlier today, the Baltic Dry Index hit a new all time low.



 

This is not new: we have been tracking the collapse of the Baltic Dry - aside for the occasional dead cat bounce - to all time lows, a proxy of global shipping and thus trade, for the past 7 years.

To be sure, for staunch goalseeking Keynesian the collapse in Baltic Dry rates had little to do with actual demand for this services, and everything to do with the alleged supply of drybulk shipping, which was the stated reason for the collapse in costs.

In other words, "trade was fine."

Well, maybe not as the following chart from Capital Economics shows:



Correlation may not be causation, but it sure is troubling. Which begs the question: as the baltic dry index continues to plumb new record lows, how long until central banks realize that for all their omnipotence and all their attempts to restore growth, inflation and the "wealth effect" they never mastered the only thing worth printing in a globalized world: printing trade

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2016, 10:06:39 AM »



Rerating catalysts for Maybulk yet to emerge
By Kamarul Anwar / The Edge Financial Daily   | January 26, 2016 : 9:42 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 26, 2016.

 

maybulk-_chart_fd_260116

KUALA LUMPUR: The continued descent in Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd ( Valuation: 1.20, Fundamental: 0.40)’s (Maybulk)’s share price has yet to present a buying opportunity due to the overcapacity among dry bulk carriers that is expected to persist and depress shipping rates further.

At a glance, Maybulk’s last traded price of 71 sen last Friday represented 8.45% upside to the 77 sen target price ascribed by MIDF Research, the sole research outfit tracking the firm. But a shipping industry observer said now may still not be a good time to buy the stock.

He explained: “There isn’t any rerating catalyst for Maybulk. Shipping rates are still depressed, and as for dry bulk shipping overcapacity, it will take a long time down the road for it to normalise.”

The industry observer did not have a projection when things will start to improve for dry bulk carriers, but Maybulk chief executive officer Kuok Khoon Kuan told The Edge weekly that the excess capacity might be over in 2017 or 2018, as there had “been more scrapping lately”, and as newbuildings taper.

“It’s no secret that the dry bulk market is hurting from overcapacity. We have to ride it out. In any downturn, there will be a recovery,” he was quoted as saying in the Jan 18 issue.

Although Maybulk had risen to 95 sen on Oct 13 — beyond MIDF Research’s 77 sen target price that had been set since Aug 26, 2015 — it seemed investors have been taking their cue from the Baltic Dry Index’ (BDI) movement instead.

After the index – which tracks the cost of shipping “dry” commodities such as grain and iron ore — hit 1,222 points on Aug 2 last year, Maybulk’s share price has tracked the BDI closely. (see chart)

The BDI has now fallen to new lows not seen since its inception in 1985, given the continuing problem of excess capacity in the industry as ship owners chase the once-lucrative shipping rates. The BDI hit an all-time high of over 11,793 points in May 2008.

The recent slowdown in global trade has once again hurt charter rates.

The charter rate’s deterioration can be seen from shipbroker Clarksons’ average rate for Capesize ships. Last year, the figure came to US$9,060 a day, but nowadays the charter rate is about US$3,600 (RM15,336).

Shipping industry news portal TradeWinds, citing Arctic Securities, said on Jan 21 that the BDI’s fall continued, although only two-thirds of newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2015 make it into the water. Only 52% of scheduled capesize newbuildings hit their 2015 delivery slot, while 67% of handysizes were on schedule.

For Maybulk, things are looking bleaker as crude oil prices tumble, given its 21.23% stake in Singapore Exchange-listed PACC Offshore Service Holdings Ltd, an offshore support vessel operator.

Maybulk has been posting consecutive losses since the third quarter of its financial year ended Dec 31, 2014 (FY14), which makes it almost certain that it will suffer its first full-year net loss in FY15.

In the first nine months (9MFY15), Maybulk made a net loss of RM58.07 million against a net profit of RM33.94 million a year ago.

Revenue also fell 9.89% in the period to RM176.76 million.

“We maintain our ‘neutral’ call with a target price of 77 sen based on sum-of-parts valuation with the bulk of the value coming from Maybulk’s fleet which holds second-hand value,” said MIDF Research in a Nov 26, 2015 note.

Meanwhile, Shin Yang Shipping Corp Bhd ( Valuation: 1.50, Fundamental: 0.20) rebounded from a net loss of RM150,000 in its first quarter ended Sept 30, 2014 (1QFY15) to a net profit of RM4.11 million in 1QFY16 due to an improvement in profit margin in its shipping agency segment.

While it has dry bulk carriers, Shin Yang is also seeing a year-on-year improvement in all of its shipping operations in FY15, which included liquid bulk, containers, and general cargoes.

However, Shin Yang’s revenue fell by 28.15% y-o-y to RM183.9 million in 1QFY16 from RM255.94 million. Its main revenue contributor, the shipbuilding and ship repair segment, saw a 59% contraction in revenue and fell into a pre-tax loss of RM5.34 million because of lesser vessel works in progress.

As oil and gas (O&G) players cut expenditures in light of depressing crude prices, things might not bode well for Shin Yang’s shipbuilding and ship repair segment.

To work around this, Shin Yang said in its notes on 1QFY16 financials that it will focus on taking steps to aggressively carry out repair and maintenance and fabrication works to meet the requirements of the niche markets O&G players and also to meet the potential requirements of the resource-based sectors.

Shin Yang gained one sen to close at 35 sen last Friday, bringing its market capitalisation to RM408 million.

Maybulk’s market capitalisation was at RM705 million

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 09:55:36 AM »



财经  2016年01月29日
末季料大亏损 大马散装货运发盈利预警

2
(吉隆坡29日讯)大马散装货运(MAYBULK,5077,主板贸服股)发出盈利警讯,其2015財政年第4季业绩(截至去年12月31日止)將蒙受巨额亏损!

大马散装货运今天发文告通知其股东和潜在投资者,该公司预计2015財政年第4季业绩將面对庞大的亏损,主要是为其运输船租约和联號公司作出亏损拨备。

同时,该公司指出,干散货市场持续疲弱,何时復甦仍不得而知。公司已经重新评估其不能撤销的出租合约。根据初步评估,船只出租成本比目前的市场行情高。因此,公司必须作出相关拨备。

此外,大马散装货运须为其联號公司PACC岸外服务公司作出拨备。

该公司说,「原油价低迷影响了全球岸外海事领域,也就是PACC公司涉及的领域。我们认为PACC公司的投资价值低过其实际价值,因此对其作出拨备。这將严重影响我们的2015財政年末季和全年业绩。

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2016, 06:40:56 AM »



World's Biggest Containership "Hard Aground" As Baltic Dry Crashes Below 300 For First Time Ever
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2016 16:35 -0500

Baltic Dry China Germany Global Economy


 
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Before this year the lowest level The Baltic Dry Index had reached was 556 in August of 1986 and the highest was in June 2008 at a stunning 11,612. Today saw the freight index hit a new milestone however, crashing through the 300 barrier for the first time ever - at 298, this is almost 50% below the previous record low.



 

Commodities obviously are saying something very different from "the market"...



And as Dana Lyons notes, of course much of the input into the BDI comes from the price of raw materials. Considering the deflationary spiral in commodities, the drop in the BDI to all-time lows shouldn’t be a shock.

However, the depths that the index is now plumbing is quite alarming and suggests trouble in the global trade picture.
 
It would also suggest perhaps that the deflationary pressure is not just a supply issue. Consider every prior drop in the Baltic Dry Index down to the 500-600 level. Each time, the index immediately jumped as if latent demand was just waiting for those lower prices. That development has not yet occurred this time around, even as prices are reaching 45% below the previous record low.
 
The Baltic Dry Index has become a trendy thing to mention in recent years when discussing global market and economic conditions. The truth is, nobody really ever knows for sure what the broader message is behind the index’s behavior. That said, this recent plunge is making it quite difficult to conceive that it means anything positive in terms of the global economy and deflationary pressures.
And finally it's not just commodities and the Baltic Dry that stalled, as gCaptain reports, one of the world’s biggest containerships is hard aground in Germany’s Elbe River leading to the port of Hamburg.



The vessel CSCL Indian Ocean ran aground Wednesday night following an apparent mechanical failure.

An attempt to refloat the ship at around noon local time was unsuccessful.
 
Germany’s Central Command for Maritime Emergencies (CCME) says it has been in touch with the ship owner and they are in the process of developing a salvage plan. A second attempt to refloat the ship is expected during high tide Thursday night.
 
An overflight of the area Thursday showed no signs of pollution. There were no injuries reported.
 
The Hong Kong-flagged ultra large container vessel (ULCV) CSCL Indian Ocean measures 399.6 meters long by 58.6 meters wide. The vessel belongs to China Shipping Container Lines, part of China Shipping Group. It is one of 5 CSCL ships with the capacity to carry a staggering 19,100 twenty foot containers.
 
The incident has caused minor impacts to ship traffic on the Elbe River.
 
CSCL Indian Ocean is part of a new breed of giant containerships designed to carry more than 18,000 TEUs and used to transport goods from Asia to northern Europe

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2016, 09:55:10 AM »


Pooling fleet to combat dry bulk oversupply
By Kamarul Anwar / The Edge Financial Daily   | February 15, 2016 : 9:37 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 15, 2016.

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Pradeep Rajan, team leader for Platts Asiashipping and freight, wanted to liken the depressing state of the dry bulk market to Egypt’s “seven years of plenty and seven years of famine” story, but the depressed market is still here to stay.

“There was a time when everyone wanted to chase the lucrative charter contracts, and ships were built aplenty. When the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis [erupted] and caused charter rates to drop the first time, people were expecting a seven-year itch as demand slowly recovered and ships destroyed.

“But that expectation caused companies to continue ordering ships. So, seven years later — in 2015 — there were still many ships entering the market and waiting for delivery,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in a telephone interview.

Ship owners have made many attempts to correct the dry bulk carrier oversupply malaise — which has caused freight prices to fall some 80% over the past year, said Pradeep. But the one trend that he found particularly interesting is dry bulk vessel owners forming shipping pools to reduce costs and available capacity.

“Ship owners will place their ships in a pool operated by a pool operator, creating a fleet of similar sizes and types. This will then ensure a minimum cargo delivery for the ship owners, and they will save a lot on human capital and itinerary,” said Pradeep.

As explained by maritime economics and logistics professor H E Haralambides in a research paper entitled “The economics of bulk shipping pools”, a pool management company will usually collect the freights and eventually distribute the net income to members of the pool after deducting its commission and voyage costs.

“In general, bulk shipping pools are a development necessitated by demand requirements and their prime objective is to enhance the ability of ship owners to undertake large contracts of affreightment.

“Although from a competition point of view it could be argued that the relatively smaller bulk shipping operators cannot possibly compete for such contracts, pools are created in order to respond to demand requirements rather than to obtain market power or increased market share,” said Haralambides.

The two vessel owners that have practised shipping pools, according to Pradeep, are TBS Ocean Logistics Inc and the Torvald Klaveness Group. He is not aware of any Malaysian dry bulk carrier using this method so far.

But Pradeep admitted that this practice is not enough to correct the depressed prices. For one, not many ship owners are willing to give up their vessels to a pool operator.

“There’s a lot of emotion running around in the shipping business. When you give your ships to an operator, you lose control in a sense,” he said.

The overcapacity issue is affecting all types of ships carrying “dry” commodities, such as grain, iron ore and coal.

“There is an estimated 10% surplus in cargo-to-tonnage supply among capesized vessels. As for supramax and ultramax vessels, the overcapacity comes to about 15%, with panamax having a surplus of between 10% and 15%,” said Pradeep.

Supramax vessels, which have a cargo capacity of between 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) and 63,000 DWT, now have an average daily charter rate of US$1,500 (RM6,225) to US$2,000, said Pradeep. Yet, he said the operating expenses are usually double that of the current rate.

Ships that were less than 15 years old have been demolished, although it is normal for dry bulk carriers to continue operating for up to 25 years. Over 600 ships were demolished in 2014 and 2015, said Pradeep.

When can dry bulk carrier charter rates be normalised again? The Baltic Dry Index, a measurement of changes in cost to carry dry goods, is continuing to create new all-time lows and went below 300 points last week.

Pradeep said things may improve at the end of next year.

“There might be light at the end of the tunnel in the fourth quarter of 2017. The number of demolished ships have also increased, and there are even younger ships being demolished in their (ship owners) desperation to survive,” he said.

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2016, 02:45:46 PM »


 1 0 0 3
Bulk shippers hit by perfect storm as global economic doldrums take toll
February 21, 2016
hong-kong-shipsHONG KONG: Off the coast of a nearly deserted island below the southern tip of Hong Kong, at least 10 massive ships that normally carry hundreds of thousands of tons of coal or iron ore lie idle near one of the world’s busiest sea routes.
These empty vessels paint a grim picture for the dry bulk shipping business that veterans of the industry say is grappling with an unprecedented crisis of too many ships and not enough cargoes. The hollow boats underscore the global economic doldrums that policymakers are struggling to overcome.
“This is the worst we have seen in recent times. We have been hit by a perfect storm – huge order books, China slowdown, the end of quantitative easing, lurking European monetary crisis, glut in oil and commodity prices,” said Kaushik Neogy, a commercial manager at Wallem Commercial Services in Hong Kong.
Shipping is a cyclical business that is often at the mercy of the ebbs and flows of the global economy. However, the dry bulk sector has been dashed upon the rocks of vessel oversupply and slowing economic growth.
The industry has suffered from large capital inflows from private equity players who invested in ships in a bet on sustained demand from emerging markets, particularly China. Instead, the world’s second-largest economy is growing at its slowest pace in 25 years, reducing the need for the coal and iron ore that fuels its manufacturing sector.
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index .BADI, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, has lost about 98 percent of its value from a peak of 11,793 points in May 2008, marking the lowest level since records began in 1985.
“This is pretty much the worst I have seen in my career,” said Tim Huxley, chief executive officer of Hong Kong-based Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, who has been in the business for over 30 years. “For the bulk carrier industry, this is going to be a grim year and next year is not going to be any better.”
At the height of the market, dry bulk vessels could command daily fees of about $185,000 but that has dropped to about $4,000 to $6,000 a day now.
With operating costs for dry bulk ships at about $5,500 to $7,500 per day, depending on the size of the vessel, the global commodities meltdown has made it hard for many operators to cover costs.

China imports dropping
Vessel rates are unlikely to recover soon especially as China’s voracious appetite for coal and iron ore slows.
Coal imports to China may drop 8 percent this year to 152.1 million tonnes, according a forecast from shipping services firm Clarkson. Shipments of coal, both for power generation and steel making, have plunged since 2013 when they reached 264.9 million tonnes.
China’s monthly iron ore imports peaked at a record 96.27 million tonnes last December but then dropped 14.6 percent to 82.19 million tonnes in January this year, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
The decline suggests annual imports may have peaked in 2015 at 952 million tonnes as production at China’s steel mills has slowed. In contrast, India imported just 15 million tonnes in 2015.
There are no signs of an economic pick-up any time soon. Last month, the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year to 3.4 percent, while money managers in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey this week said a U.S. recession is the biggest unlikely risk they are worried about.
While demand for bulk shippers has slumped, supply has scarcely blinked. Clarkson calculate the total global fleet capacity at 1.81 billion deadweight tonnes with a further 300 million tonnes of capacity coming on line over the next three to four years, the result of a hangover of the boom years when shipping was profitable.
Wah Kwong’s Huxley believes the industry is losing up to $20 billion a year in operating costs. The losses are pushing smaller companies such as Oslo-headquartered Western Bulk to sell parts of their business while others take the merger route to create giants to grab market share.
China’s government drove the merger of former rivals China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company and China Shipping Group to create China Cosco Shipping Corporation (COSCOCS). At an event in Shanghai on Thursday, Xu Lirong, the chairman of the newly formed company, acknowledged this is the most difficult period the shipping industry is experiencing since the financial crisis.
“The merger is crucial to the development of both companies,” said Xu.
– Reuters

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2016, 07:07:59 AM »


The Next Big Leg Lower In The Baltic Dry Is On Deck: 360 New Vessels Are About To Be Delivered
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2016 15:20 -0500

Baltic Dry Central Banks Deutsche Bank Global Economy



 
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One month ago, when looking at the unprecedented, record collapse in the Blatic Dry Index for the latest time, a move which many have brushed away as simply a function of too much supply, we showed a chart by Capital Economics showing the disturbing correlation between the change in the BDIY and global trade volumes, the one metric which we have claimed for over a year is far more imporant to the global economy than anything central banks can spawn.



 

Fast forward to today when in the latest update on Dry Bulk shipping fundamentals by Deutsche Bank we find some good news: according to analyst Amit Mehrotra, the "total dry bulk capacity declined by almost 1M tons (net) last week as the pace of deliveries slowed and scrapping remained elevated."

DB's assessment of this surge in scrappage is favorable: the weekly decline is the first of the year and marks an important psychological milestone given stubbornly persistent supply growth in the face of historically weak rates.

The bank adds that it estimates 16 ships were sold for scrap last week totaling 1.6M tons (avg. 100k tons per vessel). This more than offset 9 new deliveries that added 730k tons to the fleet (avg size 81k), translating to a net reduction of 7 vessels (~1M tons). Last week’s scrapping activity represents a nice acceleration from previous weeks and when looked at by itself would represent an annualized pace of 11% of installed capacity, which is almost double the all-time high of 6.3% set in 1986.

That's the good news: the bad news is that scrappage has no hope to offset the tremendous orderbook currently being installed in Chinese ship yards.

According to DB, with the vast majority of orders placed w/Chinese ship yards (where upfront payment terms are highly attractive to ship owners), the current market provides incentive (and maybe even increased scope) for owners to more aggressively pursue cancellations ahead of keel laying.

The problem is that the latest order book data shows a whopping 360 dry bulk vessels over 60k tons on order at Chinese ship yards (net of typical non-deliveries). This equates to 37M tons of new capacity or 5% of the fleet!

Worse, the vast majority (80%) of this is expected to be delivered this year- likely limiting the scope for cancelations- with only about 20% (65 vessels/6.5M tons) scheduled to be delivered in 2017 and beyond. Assuming an unrealistic scenario of total order book scrappage, it would only translate to 0.8% of the installed fleet.

However that won't happen: the DB analysts writes that "while we have seen some one-off examples of newbuilding cancellations in recent months, they have been few and far between."

What this means is that while demand will likely drift lower, the fleet may see as much as 60k tons of ships and 37M tons of new capacity come online: capacity which will manifest itself in another major leg lower in BDIY pricing.

As DB concludes, "As such we continue to believe the supply-side has much more leverage to scrapping than any (plausible) restructuring of the order book. That ship has sailed, so-to-speak."

In other words, the already record low Baltic Dry has only one direction to go in the coming months: down


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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2016, 10:39:31 AM »



"It Hasn't Been This Bad Since The Viking Age": Dry Bulk CEO Warns Of Bankruptcy Tsunami, Counterparty Risk
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/03/2016 20:10 -0500

Baltic Dry


 
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In the past three months we have repeatedly shown that, despite the recent modest rebound off the all time lows, the bottom is about to fall out of the dry bulk shipping market in articles such as these:

It Is Now Cheaper To Rent A Dry Bulk Tanker Than A Ferrari
A "Perfect Storm Is Coming" Deutsche Warns As Baltic Dry Falls To New Record Low
"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt"
World's Biggest Containership "Hard Aground" As Baltic Dry Crashes Below 300 For First Time Ever
The Next Big Leg Lower In The Baltic Dry Is On Deck: 360 New Vessels Are About To Be Delivered
Overnight, the CEO of Dry bulk shipper Golden Ocean Group, Herman Billung spoke before an industry conference in Oslo, and made it clear that our worst-case expectations may prove to be optimistic.



Photo: Golden Ocean Group

He said that Dry Bulk shippers should expect little respite for another two years, adding that an enormous oversupply of vessels isn’t sustainable: "It's a fair assumption to make that only half of the orderbook in 2016 will be delivered."



He warned that "in the coming months there will be a lot of bankruptcies, counterparty risk will be on everybody's lips."

Useful tip: any time a CEO is warning about counterparty risk, it's probably a good idea to listen.

Just to emphasize his point to the local audience he said that "The market has never been this bad before in modern history. We haven't seen a market this bad since the Viking age. This is not sustainable for anybody and will lead to dramatic changes."

Yes, it's that bad.

And what's worse, is that once Billung is proven to be right and the dry bulk bankruptcy tsunami is unleashed sweeping away hundreds of ships with it, the next question will be just which  (mostly European) banks, have the greatest "secured" loan exposure to the dry bulk industry, a sector where we fully expect recoveries on secured loans to be in the ****** on the dollar

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2016, 04:01:22 PM »



Hot Stock
Maybulk rebounds from all-time low
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | March 28, 2016 : 3:40 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (March 28): Shares in Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) has rebounded as much as 20.5 sen or 40.2% to as high as 71.5 sen in today's morning trade.

The stock had fallen to its all-time low of 51 sen on March 1 this year, after it posted a net loss of RM1.12 billion in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2015 (4QFY15) — its largest ever quarterly lost — due to a massive impairment provision.

The significant rise in its share price now, according to an analyst with a local brokerage firm, could be because investors are now more optimistic on China's economic growth.

"Investors were very pessimistic on China's economic growth over the past few months and now they have found out it may not be that bad," said the analyst.

At 3.10pm, Maybulk narrowed its gain to trade at 69 sen, still up 6.5 sen or 10.4%, as compared to its closing price on Friday of 62.5 sen, after 19.8 million shares changed hands.

In comparison, its 65-day average traded volume was 1.34 million shares.

The current price gives it a market capitalisation of RM685 million.

The Edge Weekly, in its latest issue, also reported that the recent gains in Maybulk's share price were attributable to the improving outlook for the oil and gas industry.

"There is some excitement for the (Baltic Dry) index has been subdued for so long. There is some momentum from scrapping and shipping tycoons buying assets," a former shipowner had told the business and financial weekly

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Re: TANKER RATES
« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2016, 08:55:39 PM »



财经  2016年11月28日
运费回升 散装航运甩阴霾

(纽约28日讯)对运输原物料的散装航运业者而言,最黑暗的时刻或许已过去。海运运费先前大幅下跌,导致全球航商深陷亏损或被迫歇业。不过近来运费逐渐回升,部份业界人士看好这股动能至少维持到明年上半年。

波罗的海乾货散装船综合运费指数(BDI)目前升至1200点,徘徊在2年新高,自2月跌至290点的歷史低点后,逐渐回升。BDI指数是衡量煤炭、穀物、铁矿砂等大宗商品运输成本的指標。

儘管运费目前的升势多与年终旺季因素有关,例如中国填补煤炭、铁矿砂供应、美国大量出口穀物,不过航运业高层预期,市况將稳定缓步好转,並持续到明年第2季。

纽约上市航运巨头Scorpio Bulkers首席执行员布格比说,市况已从「非常糟」,回復到「不太好」,虽离完全復甦还有很长的时间,但现在看来最糟的时刻已经过去。


先前大型业者被迫卖船变现、弥补亏损,部份小型业者宣告破產。银行业也因坏账升高,而拒绝对航运业者提供融资。

海运业人士瓦菲亚斯说,目前市况復甦的主因在于船东暂止订购新船、船舶报废量提高,以及亚洲造船业缩减业务。