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财经  2016年01月15日
原油棕油价相关性减弱

(吉隆坡15日讯)隨著国际原油价格跌跌不休,原油价格和棕油价格之间的相关性已经减弱。分析员对此持「中和」態度,並表示,布伦特原油必须重回每桶80美元(约350令吉)水平,两者之间渐弱的相关性才得以恢復。

MIDF研究分析员称道,原油价格和棕油价格相关性趋弱,並不是最近的事情。实际上,原油及棕油价格之间的关联性在布伦特原油于2014年11月跌破每桶80美元水平时,就开始出现偏差。

截至2015年杪,当布伦特原油暴跌47%,至每桶37.28美元,棕油价格才下滑14%,至每公吨545美元。统计学而言,从2014年11月至2015年12月,布伦特原油和棕油价格的相关性跌至0.57。

该分析员指出,布伦特原油必须反弹至每桶80美元水平,棕油及原油价格的相关性才得以显著增强。

「这主要是因为原油重回每桶80美元以上水平,独立生物柴油製造商对棕油的需求量才能死灰復燃。」

另一方面,《路透社》日前报导指出,原油价格挫跌致使食用油价格比化石燃料价格高出两倍,印尼和大马应抑制將棕油转化成生物柴油的活动。

印尼打算于2016年把当地柴油中的最低生物含量比例推高至20%,而大马则在去年將7%的生物含量,推高至10%。

分析员称,根据大马棕油局数据,2015年国內棕油消费按年攀升4%,至296万公吨,相信这主要是由较高的生物柴油使用量所推动。

「儘管2015年原油价格趋跌,我国较高的生物柴油使用率,却带动棕油消费攀升。而这现象並未体现在印尼市场,该国的生物柴油使用量,或无法达到原定的目標。」

该分析员解释说,如果印尼的生物柴油使用量提高,將拉低大马从印尼进口的棕油量。

然而,根据大马棕油局的进口数据,2015年大马的棕油进口量按年暴涨112%,至103公吨,当中过半进口量来自印尼。这代表印尼当局实施生物柴油计划的进度不如预期。

首选IOI集团

无论如何,MIDF研究分析员维持种植业「正面」投资评级,並预测棕油价格走势將改善,预计將介于每公吨2400至2600令吉区间游走。

该分析员的首选种植股是IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和大安控股(TAANN,5012,主板工业股),目標价分別为4.95令吉和6.50令吉。

他说,鉴于IOI集团在去年11月30日,重新被纳入符合伊斯兰教义股项,以及2016財政年首季(截至去年9月30日止)盈利按年攀升41%,至3亿3800万令吉,加上它是一家纯棕油收入的大企业,所以才视该股为首选股。

另外,该分析员看好大安控股,主要是因为拥有强劲的盈利成长和木材出口业务將受惠于美元走强

king:



Indonesia Dec palm oil output falls to nine-month low - Reuters survey
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 18, 2016 : 5:40 PM MYT   
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JAKARTA (Jan 18): Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output slipped to a nine-month low in December, a Reuters survey showed, as Southeast Asia's monsoon season curtailed operations in the world's two biggest producers of the edible oil.

Indonesia's CPO output in December was 2.457 million tonnes, down 12% from 2.8 million tonnes in November and the lowest since March, according to the median estimate in a survey of three industry officials and one plantation company.

Falling output and rising exports may support benchmark palm prices, which climbed nearly 10% in 2015 and are currently trading near RM2,480 (US$564) a tonne.

"Typically, December production will come off because it is a low production month," said plantations analyst Ivy Ng at CIMB Research. "It is quite similar to what Malaysia has experienced."

Last week, data from rival palm grower Malaysia showed that CPO output there fell by 15% in December from the previous month.

Southeast Asia's peak palm oil output usually runs over August to September, with production in the world's top producer Indonesia and No.2 producer Malaysia typically easing as the region heads into its wet season in November.

The Reuters survey pegged Indonesia's CPO exports for December at 2.675 million tonnes, up 28% from November and highest since at least August 2014, when the survey began.

Chinese buying ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday may have boosted palm buying in December, said Ng, adding that many Indonesian sellers have been aggressive in selling palm products at a discount to Malaysia in recent weeks.

According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at 2.425 million tonnes in December, a level not seen since February and down from 2.950 million tonnes in November.

Indonesia's domestic consumption of the tropical oil was estimated in a range between 550,000 tonnes and 767,000 tonnes.

The latest monthly data published by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed November exports at 2.39 million tonnes. GAPKI data for December is yet to be released.

The Reuters survey for December comprises contributions from GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm oil
companies.

king:



财经  2016年01月19日
经济放缓 种植业今年挑战重重

(吉隆坡19日讯)由于全球经济成长放缓,尤其是棕油进口国如中国、美国和欧洲,种植及原產业部长拿督道格拉斯认为,本地种植领域將迎来充满挑战的一年。

大马种植及原產业部长道格拉斯表示,对种植领域来说,2015年是充满挑战的一年。上半年的原棕油平均价是每公吨2230令吉,到了下半年下降至每公吨2105令吉。

同时,他指出,2015年的棕油平均价是每公吨2153令吉。比2014年的每公吨2383令吉滑落9.6%。而2015年的棕油產量是1996万公吨,出口按年略起0.8%,至1744万公吨;至于2015年的平均棕油库存,则从2014年的202万公吨增加30.5%。

道格拉斯是在出席2016年棕油领域展望研討会致词时,发表上述谈话。其他列席者包括大马棕油局(MPOB)主席旺凯里尔及总监拿督朱云美。

与此同时,道格拉斯认为,由于全球经济成长料放缓,尤其是棕油进口国家,比如中国、美国和欧洲,棕油领域在2016年依然会面对不少挑战。

道格拉斯较后接受媒体採访时表示,「虽然如此,市场乐观看待厄尔尼诺气象可支撑棕油价。根据棕油局的最新数据,去年12月份的棕油產量大减。这是良好的现象,並说明政府实施的政策已经奏效,比如柴油和翻种计划。」

此外,他补充,从往年的情况来看,厄尔尼诺来袭后,全年棕油產量一般会减少10%,但不少种植业者已经对此採取应对措施,將其衝击减至最轻。

当被问及政府推出B10柴油计划的进展时,道格拉斯披露,大马现有的柴油產能是260万公吨,內阁將在今年2月尾商討B10柴油计划,政府目前仍需要一些时间和涉及各造协商相关细节。

「政府依然注重大马种植业的发展,我们將沿用现有的策略来挽回棕油领域的市占率,也就是在新兴市场继续寻找商机,比如中国、印度和非洲。」

另外,大马交易所衍生品开发部门副总裁莫利亚兹在棕油研討会上分享说,外匯波动严重影响了棕油市场行情,尤其是美元及人民幣一升一贬的局面。棕油价自2014年起便剧烈波动,並受到美元和人民幣的牵引。

莫利亚兹强调,和1997/1998年金融危机时期相比,当时令吉贬值后对出口有利,棕油价因此扶摇直上。不过,如今美元兑全球主要货幣均走强,即便令吉贬值亦难以提振棕油价。

棕油价波动

谈到棕油领域的今年前景,莫利亚兹坦言,「棕油市场今年料更加剧烈波动,因市场仍笼罩在诸多不明朗因素,较显著的因素有4个:1.美国联储局(Fed)今年或进一步升息;2.中国经济政策;3.厄尔尼诺气象的影响力;4.全球原產品价格。

因此,他呼吁种植业者应该更好地管理棕油价预测及提高营运效率。

king:


Vegoils
Palm oil drops nearly 1% on bleak exports
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 20, 2016 : 1:48 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 20): Malaysian palm oil futures slid nearly 1% on Wednesday, falling further from a three-week high reached at the start of the week, after data showed a drop in exports this month.

Palm oil prices have come under pressure in the absence of an expected pick up in imports by key consumer China, ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations in February. A slowdown in growth in the world's No.2 economy and ample world supplies of rival soyoil have curbed the country's demand for the tropical oil.

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1% to 2,454 ringgit (US$561.81) per tonne by midday, below Monday's near three-week
top of 2,495 ringgit. Traded volume stood at 15,762 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The market fall, has quite a lot to do with the export data," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) shows an 8.5% month-on-month drop in Malaysian palm oil exports over Jan 1-20.

"These are very low numbers which I was not expecting. I thought exports would at least maintain, because we are still dealing with zero percent duty on crude palm oil," the trader added.

Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm producer after Indonesia, has kept its crude palm oil export tax at zero for the past nine months.

Palm oil may slide more to a support at 2,430 ringgit per tonne, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

In related markets, U.S. crude futures hit their lowest since September 2003 below US$28 a barrel, on worries over global oversupply.
   
The U.S. March soyoil contract was down 0.5%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.3%

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FGV shares down after CIMB cuts TP
By Danial Idraki / theedgemarkets.com   | January 26, 2016 : 3:22 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 26): Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) ( Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 1.15)'s shares fell two sen or 1.3% amid broader market losses and after CIMB Investment Bank Bhd ( Valuation: 1.65, Fundamental: 0.55) cut its target price (TP) for the plantation stock.

At 2:34pm, FGV shares were traded at RM1.48 for a market capitalisation of RM5.4 billion. The stock saw some two million shares done.

At 2.52pm, the FBM KLCI fell 2.41 points to 1,622.80.

In a note to clients today, CIMB said it cut its FGV TP to RM1.49 from RM1.73 while maintaining its "reduce" call for the stock.

CIMB said it raised its FGV discount to sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation from 30% to 40% over concerns about the company's plan to acquire a stake in Indonesia's PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk (EHP).

"We are keeping our earnings forecasts, but lower our target price as we raise the discount to our SOP valuation from 30% to 40%.

"The persistent news flow on its plans to acquire EHP at a premium over its market price may dampen sentiment on share prices of the company," CIMB said.

CIMB's note followed a report on FGV by The Edge Malaysia business and investment weekly (The Edge Weekly) in its latest Jan 2531 issue.

The Edge Weekly, quoting sources, reported that FGV and its major shareholder Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) were close to securing a 30% discount to the initial price tag of US$680 million (RM2.92 billion) for a 37% stake in EHP.

It was reported that negotiations were geared towards Felda acquiring most of the 37% stake while FGV purchases a minority stake

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