Author Topic: CRUDE PALM OIL  (Read 37402 times)

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #150 on: December 15, 2016, 09:01:14 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #151 on: December 16, 2016, 11:58:18 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #152 on: December 19, 2016, 09:45:29 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #153 on: December 19, 2016, 01:15:17 PM »



Palm oil may rise to RM3,237
By Reuters / Reuters   | December 19, 2016 : 12:45 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (Dec 19): Palm oil may break a resistance at RM3,193 per tonne and rise to the next resistance at RM3,237, a suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis.

These resistances are identified respectively as the 38.2% and the 50% Fibonacci projection levels of an upward wave c, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the Nov 15 low of RM2,817. This wave is capable of travelling to RM3,280.

A drop from the current level may be limited to RM3,158, the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level of an upward wave C, which is the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the Oct 6 low of RM2,538.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #154 on: December 20, 2016, 09:52:54 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #155 on: December 22, 2016, 08:52:10 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #156 on: December 22, 2016, 08:52:59 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #157 on: December 22, 2016, 09:39:40 AM »
BY TEORI JTIASA EARNING WILL UP.RIGHT OR NOT

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #158 on: December 23, 2016, 09:42:20 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #159 on: December 27, 2016, 11:10:07 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #160 on: December 28, 2016, 10:22:24 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #161 on: December 28, 2016, 08:13:51 PM »



2016-12-28 09:05
出口好转.棕油期货大涨至3130令吉
由于受到较佳出口数据及大豆油价格走高激励,大马原棕油价格强力回弹2.29%。
(吉隆坡27日讯)由于受到较佳出口数据及大豆油价格走高激励,大马原棕油价格强力回弹2.29%。

广告

 
大马衍生产品交易所的基准2017年3月原棕油期货合约,收盘报3130令吉,大涨70令吉或2.29%。比较上周,原棕油期货下跌3.2%,创下4周来的最大跌幅。

原棕油期货价格走高,惟全场交投淡静,全天仅有1万26077宗合约易手。

交易商指出,虽然许多交易商尚在度假,不过,调查公司宣布较佳的原棕油出口数据,仍然获得市场良好反应而走高。

根据货运调查公司的数据显示,今年12月1日至25日的原棕油出口下跌5.6%至84万5441公吨,比较上个月同期的出口量为89万5625公吨,显示其跌幅已经收窄。

较早时,截至2016年12月1日至20日的原棕油出口量急跌14.4%,当时拖累原棕油价格大跌。

交易商指出,大马原棕油出口依然下跌,不过已经获得改善。同时,中国大连期货市场在过去两天的大豆油价格回扬,也是推动原棕油价格回扬的催化因素。



看好名车市场 陈志远加码

广告

 
交易商表示,原棕油期货价格的当前下跌支持水平落在3100令吉,当前上升阻力则为3140令吉。

中国买家趁农历新年来临之际买进原棕油,有助推高原棕油价格。同时,中国市场重新进行原棕油存货、出口需求转强及产量走低,使原棕油前景亮丽。

中国大连商品期货市场的5月份大豆油期货价格涨升1.46%、而精炼棕油期货则起2.2%。与此同时,芝加哥商品交易所的2017年1月份大豆油价格则扬升了0.75%。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.12.28

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #162 on: December 29, 2016, 04:06:00 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #163 on: December 31, 2016, 06:03:01 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #164 on: January 04, 2017, 10:15:56 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #165 on: January 05, 2017, 06:34:26 AM »



Wednesday, 4 January 2017 | MYT 8:56 AM
Crude palm oil to trade up to RM3,200 in January, says CIMB Research






 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research forecasts crude palm oil (CPO) to trade between RM2,800 and RM3,200 per tonne in January while its top picks in the region are Astra Agro, First Resources and Genting Plantations.

It said on Wednesday the CPO price had been holding firm at above RM3,000 per tonne in December last year due to the due to the weaker-than-expected ringgit and tight stockpile.
As such, the 2016 CPO price is projected to average RM2,650 per tonne and we expect CPO price to trade in the range of RM2,800 to RM3,200 per tonne in January 2017.

“We maintain our Neutral stance and average CPO price forecast of RM2,600 per tonne for 2017,” it said.

CIMB Research said findings from a survey of 17 plantation areas by the CIMB Futures team revealed that Malaysian CPO output fell 7.8% on-month to 1.53 million tonnes in December 2016.

Palm oil exports fell by about 3.8% on-month, based on export statistics released by SGS and ITS.

“Overall, we estimate that Malaysian palm oil inventories may have grown by 2.3% on-month to 1.7 million tonnes at end-December. The official figures will be released on Jan 10,” it said.

The research house said the projected 7.8% on-month drop in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output is below the historical Dec on-month average decline of 13% over the past five years, due to the lower production base in November and fading El Nino effect.

“This is also lower than our earlier projection of a 10% on-month decline in output. Year-on-year, CPO output is expected to improve by 9% in December 2016, after 11 consecutive months of falling on-year output. Our survey revealed that output from Sabah, Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak estates fell 12%, 7.7% and 3.5% on-month, respectively,” it said.

It estimates that Malaysian palm oil exports fell  3.8% on-month in December 2016, based on estimates from cargo surveyor SGS (-1.8% on-month) and ITS (-5.7% on-month).

“This is lower than our earlier projection for exports to fall by 10% on-month, due mainly to stronger–than-expected demand from India (31% on-month) and Pakistan (110% on-month). However, this is more than offset by weaker demand from China and US leading to lower on-month exports.

“The expectation of higher stocks in Dec could cap the rise in CPO prices. However, our projected end-Dec stock level of 1.7m tonnes remains low as it represents a 36% decline from a year-ago level and around 1.26 months coverage of average monthly palm oil exports from Malaysia.

“The Malaysian Home Minister recently announced that employers will have to personally incur the levy for hiring foreign workers from 1 Jan 2017, instead of deducting it from the workers’ wages.

“Our initial checks with some planters under our coverage revealed that this is likely to have minimal or no impact on their earnings as they have already been absorbing the foreign workers’ levy of RM640 per worker over the past few years,” it said.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #166 on: January 05, 2017, 06:53:00 AM »



财经  2017年01月04日
產量库存料反弹 棕油价今年高峰回落

16
(吉隆坡4日讯)隨著厄尔尼诺气候效应逐渐退散,大马棕油產量和库存料將从谷底反弹,市场人士预计,这將导致棕油价格在今年从高处回落。

过去一年的乾旱气候,使我国棕油產量和库存双双减少,造成原棕油市场供应吃紧,带动棕油价格一举衝破每公吨3000令吉。

不过,隨著市场担忧大马棕油库存走高和中国大连商品期货市场的精炼棕油期货价格趋跌,大马衍生品交易所棕油期货价格周三(4日)盘中一度下滑1%,至每公吨3130令吉。闭市时,棕油期货则稍微收復失地,报每公吨3143令吉,跌20令吉或0.63%。

大连商品期货市场的精炼棕油期货价格则走跌0.9%,至每公吨6186人民幣;而大豆油则下滑0.7%,至每公吨6902人民幣。


针对即將于下周二(10日)出炉的去年12月份棕油数据,联昌国际投行分析员预计,12月份棕油库存將按月增加2.3%,至每公吨170万公吨,而產量则预计按月走跌7.8%。

至于出口,按货柜调查公司Intertek和瑞士通用公证行(SGS)的调查结果来看,该分析员预计,12月份棕油出口將按月减少3.8%,远低于其预测的10%跌幅。

Intertek调查结果显示,大马2016年12月份棕油出口按月减少5.7%,至108万6523公吨;而瑞士通用公证行(SGS)则指出,我国去年12月棕油出口按月缩减1.8%,报110万9606公吨。

次季料陷调整

无论如何,联昌国际投行分析员认为,1月份棕油期货价格,將在每公吨2800令吉至每公吨3200令吉区间游走。

马银行投行分析员赞同並指出,棕油季节性低產期和库存偏低,是引领首季棕油价格持稳在每公吨3000令吉的主因。

然而,该分析员点出,棕油產量逐步回稳,將导致棕油价格在今年次季陷入调整格局,该调整趋势將与1999年拉尼娜效应推动大马棕油產量时的情况雷同。

「不止如此,去年下半年正常或偏高的降雨量为棕油產量復甦铺路,预计產量將在2017年下半年强力走高,预计將拖累棕油期货价格在第3季跌至谷底。」届时,大马和印尼2017棕油產量將上涨约600万公吨,相比去年的400万公吨跌幅。

全年平均售价2400

有鉴于此,马银行投行分析员预计,2017全年棕油平均售价,將达每公吨2400令吉,低于2016年的平均售价每公吨2650令吉。

他表示,他所追踪的种植股,在2017年鲜果串產量按年涨跌幅料介于-1%至26%,低树龄居多和2015年深受旱灾影响的种植股,它们的棕油產量料將强力反弹

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #167 on: January 05, 2017, 02:13:28 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #168 on: January 06, 2017, 06:32:51 AM »



Thursday, 5 January 2017 | MYT 2:38 PM
MPOB sees crude palm oil price improving in 2017






 
 
JASIN: The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to strengthen further this year based on the price increase of up to 45 per cent last year, as well as government initiatives to venture into various markets especially in China.



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Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Hamzah said the government's commitment to broaden existing markets and explore new markets had also supported the commodity price last year.

"Currently, the commodity price has strengthened at a favourable level. As of end-2016, the price at which the oil palm smallholders sold to the middlemen had increased to up to RM650 per tonne.

"The same goes for rubber. We are confident the prices of the two commodities will continue to strengthen further this year," he told reporters after Jasin Parliament's School Assistance Presentation to 200 school children here, last night.

Ahmad who is also Jasin Member of Parliament said besides venturing into new markets, the government's efforts to assist oil palm smallholders would also help to strengthen the commodity's price.

"I hope the smallholders will benefit from the increase in income due to the higher price...they should be thrifty and save in case the CPO price suddenly drops. We don't want (price) to fall but if it happens, the smallholders are already prepared," he said.

Meanwhile, Ahmad said the country's fresh fruit bunch production fell about 20-30 per cent last year due to unfavourable weather, as well as the impact of the El Nino phenomenon.

"However, we are confident it (unfavaourable weather) will not prolong and be as bad as last year, hence, will help in the development of the two commodities," he said. - Bernama

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #169 on: January 06, 2017, 06:47:00 AM »



CPO prices expected to trend lower post-Q1
Posted on 6 January 2017 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
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PETALING JAYA: HLIB Research sees crude palm oil (CPO) prices trending lower but remaining relatively stable for the remaining quarters of 2017, supported by a weak ringgit against the US dollar and biodiesel mandates, particularly in Indonesia.

“We maintain our average CPO price assumption of RM2,500 per tonne for 2017 and 2018 respectively,” HLIB said in a report yesterday.

It said CPO output will likely improve from 2Q17, as the carryover effect of El Nino and the seasonally low production cycle ends.

“While we believe current high CPO prices will sustain into 1Q17, underpinned by carryover effects of previous El Nino episodes and seasonally low production cycles, we see CPO prices trending lower for the remaining quarters of 2017.”

It added that Oil World projected world soybean output to increase by 7.3% to 334.3 million tonnes in 2017, mainly on the back of higher output from the US, India and Brazil. Besides, the US Department of Agriculture projects soybean plantings in the US to reach a record in 2017-18, which in turn means even more soybean supply upon harvesting.

The research house said among the major palm oil consuming countries, both India and China will remain as Malaysia’s top export destinations in 2017.

Palm oil demand for these two countries will unlikely increase significantly, as continued structural adjustment in China will continue to moderate its economic growth, hence limiting palm oil consumption.

It added that the current high palm oil prices typically cap demand, particularly from price-sensitive countries such as India; and the recent demonetisation of the Indian rupee may continue to weigh on its palm oil imports, at least in the near term.

“We maintain our ‘neutral’ stance on the sector, as we believe our anticipation of palm oil production recovery will be offset by lower CPO prices, given the lack of demand growth catalyst,” HLIB said.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #170 on: January 06, 2017, 10:35:07 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #171 on: January 09, 2017, 08:32:00 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #172 on: January 10, 2017, 10:12:48 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #173 on: January 10, 2017, 08:55:35 PM »



Malaysia sees average 2017 palm price well below current levels
Published: January 10, 2017 04:01 PM GMT+8

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Palm oil prices averaged RM2,741 in 2016, according to Reuters data. The government in Malaysia, the world’s No.2 producer of the edible oil, gives the average for last year as RM2,600. — Reuters pic
Palm oil prices averaged RM2,741 in 2016, according to Reuters data. The government in Malaysia, the world’s No.2 producer of the edible oil, gives the average for last year as RM2,600. — Reuters pic
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 10 — Palm oil prices will this year average between RM2,700 and RM2,800, Malaysia’s minister of plantation industries and commodities said today.

That would be well below current prices for the edible oil, used to churn out everything from ice-cream to shampoo and biofuels, which stood around RM3,135 this afternoon.

“(Palm oil) prices have fluctuated quite substantially... because there is a lot of offtake by certain countries and production also came down (in 2016),” minister Mah Siew Keong said at an industry event.

Palm oil prices averaged RM2,741 in 2016, according to Reuters data. The government in Malaysia, the world’s No.2 producer of the edible oil, gives the average for last year as RM2,600.

Mah added that he expected Malaysia’s 2017 palm output to grow from the previous year, without specifying figures.

Malaysia produced 17.3 million tonnes of palm oil in 2016, down 13 per cent from the year before due to dry conditions from a strong El Nino weather pattern. — Reuters

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/malaysia-sees-average-2017-palm-price-well-below-current-levels#sthash.Y5GWIs5M.dpuf

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #174 on: January 11, 2017, 08:27:23 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #175 on: January 12, 2017, 01:49:29 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #176 on: January 13, 2017, 06:54:51 AM »



财经
棕油期貨價走軟
 64点阅   2017年1月12日
(吉隆坡12日訊)隨著令吉走強加上大豆油籽表現疲軟,大馬棕油期貨交易走跌。

大馬衍生產品交易所3月交付棕油期貨休市跌0.3%至每公噸3124令吉,閉市時進一步擴大跌幅至0.8%或24令吉,掛2109令吉。



棕油在週三(11日)交出一週最強勁漲幅,閉市時漲了近2%。

期貨交易商表示,棕油價格是基于令吉走強而下滑。令吉升值對外資投資者而言,持有棕油投資將更昂貴。令吉已回升0.2%至4.46,上探一個月來最強勁水平。

同時,美國大豆油和原油價格下滑,亦對棕油帶來壓力。

棕油價格與其它植物油價格波動相互影響,其中3月交付大豆油價格下滑0.5%。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #177 on: January 13, 2017, 10:05:44 AM »



12/1/17

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #178 on: January 13, 2017, 01:41:06 PM »



Technicals
Palm oil may break resistance at 3,169 ringgit
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 13, 2017 : 1:23 PM MYT   
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Translated by Google Translator:
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SINGAPORE (Jan 13): Palm oil is expected to test a resistance at 3,169 ringgit per tonne, with a good chance of breaking above this level and gaining more towards the next resistance at 3,219 ringgit.

These resistances are identified respectively as the 114.6% and the 123.6% Fibonacci projection levels of an upward wave C, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the July 12, 2016 low of 2,186 ringgit.

A break above 3,169 ringgit will confirm not only a target at 3,219 ringgit, but also a bullish wedge, which suggests a higher target at 3,299 ringgit. Support is at 3,128 ringgit, a break below which could cause a loss to 3,089 ringgit. - by Wang Tao, Reuters

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #179 on: January 16, 2017, 06:14:00 AM »



棕油徘徊3000至3150
28点看 2017年1月16日
交易员预计,本周原棕油期货价格将会在介于每吨3000至3150令吉之间游走,加上库存增加引起投机活动,让市场偏向下行走势。

Interband集团原棕油高级交易员郑锦(译音)说,投资者已关注在2月期货,因为交易商已为来临的农历新年购入棕油。


他指,将在本周出炉的出口预测,将会成为主导市场情绪的关键指标,特别是1月的出口走势。

上周,市场需求增加,特别是中国,加上大豆和油价走高,原棕油也收高。

按周比较,今年1月期货收高80令吉,报每吨3280令吉;2月期货攀升52令吉,达3182令吉;3月期货上升45令吉,达3120令吉;4月期货则起56令吉,报3083令吉。

此外,上周成交量增加至28万1378宗,高于前周的18万2980宗;而未平仓合约则从26万9269宗,减少至25万2506宗。

至于现货市场,1月南方合约收在3290令吉,攀升80令吉。


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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #180 on: January 16, 2017, 08:36:02 AM »



13/1/17

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #181 on: January 17, 2017, 06:37:52 AM »



Malaysia raises CPO export tax
Posted on 17 January 2017 - 05:41am
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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, will raise its crude palm oil (CPO) export tax to 7.5% in February, up from 7% in January, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website yesterday.

Malaysia calculated a palm oil reference price of RM3,279.76 per tonne for February. A price above RM2,250 a tonne incurs a tax, which starts from 4.5% and can reach a maximum of 8.5%.

The country raised the CPO export tax to 7% last month, up from 6% in December. – Reuters


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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #182 on: January 17, 2017, 02:17:03 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #183 on: January 18, 2017, 11:22:46 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #184 on: January 20, 2017, 10:26:47 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #185 on: January 23, 2017, 06:38:23 AM »



财经  2017年01月22日 | 记者:雷洁敏
棕油好价產量回升 东盟种植业迎好年

棕油好价產量回升 东盟种植业迎好年

隨著原棕油价格和產量復甦,分析员对种植领域的前景转为正面。原棕油价格在去年末季按季走高17%,主要是因为较低的產量,以及令吉与印尼盾兑美元匯率走跌。

野村证券分析员表示,厄尔尼诺乾旱现象结束后,原棕油价格和產量將反弹,对东盟棕油领域在2017年的前景,感到正面。该分析员基于3个因素,將2017年和2018年的原棕油价格预测,分別调高17%及14%,至每公吨2800令吉和2850令吉。

以上所指的3大因素,分別是低于预期的库存、令吉和印尼盾兑美元匯率贬值,以及原油价格反弹对生物柴油生產有利。

3大利好 种植股盈利看俏


由于棕油出口放缓幅度高于產量跌幅,大马去年12月的棕油库存意外上升0.2%,至167万公吨,写下连续4个月上升的记录。

大马棕油局(MPOB)数据显示,大马的棕油產量已连续3个月下滑,在去年12月按月减少6.4%,至147万令吉;但是与前年同期比较则呈涨,是2016年棕油產量按年比较唯一有所增长的月份。

同时,当局也宣布,今年2月的原棕油出口税將调高至7.5%,1月份的棕油出口税为7%。

隨著原棕油价格和產量復甦,野村证券分析员对今年的种植业前景感到正面。

该分析员相信產量回升和赚幅改善,將提振种植股今年和明年的盈利表现,所以种植股的股价仍有上升的空间。

因此,他將所追踪的东盟区种植股的2017和2018年盈利预测,分別调高9至17%,同时也將它们的目標价格,分別上调14至56%。

首季库存料跌

鉴于以下3大因素,野村证券分析员將2017和2018年的原棕油价格预测,分別调涨至每公吨2800令吉和2850令吉。

1. 低于预期的库存水平厄尔尼诺-南方振盪现象(ElNino-SouthernOscillation,简称ENSO)已经显示,拉尼娜现象预计不会在未来6个月內出现,因此预料种植股可在2017和2018財政年交出较佳的盈利表现,归功于厄尔尼诺影响结束后產量復甦,以及较高的原棕油价格。

全球棕油库存水平(包括生產国和进口原棕油国家)目前仍处于极低的水平,並预计库存在今年首季將进一步下降,因为產量依然疲软。

2016年11月和12月原棕油產量仅成长1.2%,相比分析员预期的3%至5%低。

油世界週报预期大马2017年棕油產量增长率为10.8%、印尼產量同期增长为9.6%。不过,需求也预计將提高,所以整体库存对消耗比率预计处在16.1%,这令分析员相信,原棕油价格將保持高价位。

该週报也预期大豆油供需在2016和2017年分別成长5%及6%,库存对消耗比率则企稳在25.6%及25.7%。

野村分析员指出,只要气候没有太大的变化,原棕油价格涨势相信会领先大豆价格。

2.令吉和印尼盾兑美元匯率贬值鉴于棕油是以美元交易,美元走强为大马和印尼种植公司带来更大的收益。

2016年末季令吉和印尼盾兑美元匯率,分別贬值9%及3.8%。

野村证券分析员表示,由于大部份(约60%至70%)成本是以当地货幣计算,所以较高的成本並没有影响种植业者的净赚幅。倘若以美元计算的棕油价格保持稳定,业者的净赚幅预计可进一步改善。

野村证券的经济学家预测,令吉兑美元匯率在2017和2018年,分別为4.76令吉及4.72令吉兑1美元。

因此,分析员相信,负债率低和美元贷款较少的种植公司,將是令吉匯率贬值的受惠者。

无论如何,分析员称,不少种植公司是以外匯贷款,尤其是美元作为自然对冲。因此,美元走强,拥有显著美元债务的种植公司,將蒙受外匯对换亏损。

虽然外匯项目为非现金流,但却有损种植业者的损益表。

分析员称,云顶种植(GENP,2291,主板种植股)和印尼LondonSumatra公司是美元走强的最大受惠者,因为它们的负债较低,以及面临的美元贷款风险有限。

3.原油价格反弹带动更高的生物柴油生產原油价格在2016年末季反弹21.7%,促使野村证券分析员预估油价將维持在每桶55美元至60美元。

近期原油价格上涨,引领原棕油价格隨之走强。事实上,原棕油和布伦特原油的相互关係(correlation)在过去一年位于0.53倍,远高于平均10年的相互关係,即负0.37倍。

此外,生物柴油產量从2015年的170万公吨,增加至2016年的330万公吨。

2016年棕油和大豆油在生物柴油生產中的使用量,分別增加150万公吨及140万公吨。

考虑到较高的原棕油价格预测,野村证券分析员將所追踪的种植股的2017至2018財政年盈利预测,分別提高9%至17%。

赚幅改善 棕油股看涨

展望2017年,大马和印尼政府將进一步扩大生物柴油產量。同时,棕油出口量增加,也促使政府可以从出口税累积大量资金。

野村证券分析员表示,棕油供应预期在2017下半年復甦,政府进一步扩大棕油在生物柴油生產的使用量,料可支撑棕油价格走势。

在大马,B7生物柴油(石油柴油混合组成7%的棕櫚甲酯(palmmethylester))將升级为B10(10%的棕櫚甲酯)混合型生物柴油,並在今年逐步在运输领域实施B10。

一旦2017年全面实施B10生物柴油计划,其消耗量预期將在明年达7亿7000万公升,而且政府料在2020年推出15%的混合生物柴油。

分析员预期,接下来数年棕油在生物柴油的混合比率將逐步提高,加上柴油的使用率进一步增长,生物柴油的使用量有望迅速成长。

此外,野村证券分析员重申,棕油產量回升和赚幅改善,將为种植公司2017至2018財政年带来强劲的盈利表现,所以东盟种植股的股价有进一步上涨的空间。

该分析员所追踪的种植股,它们的股价在过去3个月和6个月,平均扬升8%和13%。

他补充说,与原棕油价格有著很强相互关係的股项在过去3个月的表现跑贏大市。他预测未来3至6个月,產量强劲復甦的种植股,它们的表现將超越大市,以反映它们的盈利表现將从2017年次季转强。

该分析员看好拥有强劲成长的上游业者,包括新加坡第一资源(FirstResources)、印尼AstraAgro种植公司、云顶种植、印尼London Sumatra公司;至于规模较大的业者,如IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和新加坡金光农业资源有限公司(GoldenAgri)则面临下游业务的股本回酬率(ROE)下降,以及併购风险提高。

整体而言,该领域的最大贏家,將会是生產强劲增长和有效控制成本的公司,野村证券的首选股仍然是第一资源,因为具吸引力的估值、油棕树龄年轻以及有效控制成本。



买云顶种植 森那美 沽IOI集团

大马方面,野村证券分析员看好云顶种植和森那美前景,並上调它们的投资评级至「买进」,其中预期森那美的资產重组计划,可为该股带来潜在的上行空间。至于IOI集团则预计下游產品销量减少將导致盈利下滑,而维持该股「减持」投资评级。

云顶种植

(从「中和」上调至「买进」,目標价为12.90令吉)野村证券分析员表示,云顶种植的產量强劲復甦,预料此情况可延续至2017和2018財政年,加上生產成本下降,料可提高未来赚幅。他指出,云顶种植较同业年轻的树龄和较低的负债率,是將它列为首选股的主因,同时它也將受惠于令吉兑美元走贬,因为0.04倍的低负债率,相比同业平均的0.7倍,以及美元贷款风险暴露仅18%,相比同业平均约43%。

森那美

(从「中和」上调至「买进」,目標价为9.85令吉)分析员预测森那美2017至2018財政年盈利將获益于3项因素,即:一、鲜果串產量加速增长及原棕油价格上涨;二、降债活动,减低融资成本;三、持续提升人力资源,以及工业业务的煤炭价格改善。森那美早前表示有意將主要业务分拆上市,分析员相信,倘若森那美成功释放种植和產业业务的价值,潜在股息派发更高。

IOI集团

(维持「减持」,目標价为4.10令吉)虽然IOI集团被吊销的棕油永续发展圆桌会议(RSPO)已在去年8月16日撤销,但该集团仍需时重新获得大型买家的信心,如家乐氏(Kellogg’s)、玛氏食品(Mars)、雀巢(NESTLE,4707)和嘉吉公司(Cargill)。

根据分析员较为敏感的分析显示,倘若该公司油脂化学品(Oleochemical)、「特种油脂」(Specialtyoilsandfats)的销售量减少10%,將导致2017財政年净利减少4%。

分析员考虑到IOI集团2018財政年市佔率和股价对账面价值比(P/B)分別为24.5倍及3.7倍(相比同业平均的17.1倍和1.7倍)、较低的盈利成长,以及扩张下游业务导致股本回酬率被侵蚀,而维持该股「减持」投资评级。

5大风险

另一方面,野村证券分析员也列出了种植领域將面对的5大潜在风险,即:

1. 气候异常如厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜;

2. 高于预期的大豆收割,导致价格下降,拖低原棕油价格;

3. 能源价格波动,影响佔原棕油需求15%的生物柴油可行性;

4. 印度对棕油徵收较高的进口税;

5. 生產成本增加,如劳动力和化肥成本

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #186 on: January 23, 2017, 08:58:48 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #187 on: January 24, 2017, 09:19:42 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #188 on: January 25, 2017, 10:53:38 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #189 on: January 25, 2017, 02:05:45 PM »



Technicals
Palm oil remains neutral in 3,089-3,169 ringgit range
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 25, 2017 : 12:54 PM MYT   
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Translated by Google Translator:
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SINGAPORE (Jan 25): Palm oil remains neutral in a range of 3,089-3,169 ringgit per tonne, and an escape could suggest a direction.

The range is formed by the 100% and the 114.6% Fibonacci projection levels of an upward wave C from the Oct 6, 2016 low of 2,538 ringgit.

A break above 3,169 ringgit could lead to a gain to 3,219 ringgit. However, the contract failed to break this resistance three times and it is really doubtful if it would make it in the fourth attempt.

A break below 3,089 ringgit could cause a loss to 3,014 ringgit. - by Wang Tao, Reuters

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #190 on: January 25, 2017, 02:11:02 PM »



Year of the Rooster seen waking up China’s palm oil demand
TheStarWed, Jan 25, 2017

AS CHINA welcomes the Year of the Rooster this week, bets that a recovery in Asian palm oil production will drive prices lower may be something for consumers to crow about.

While high prices may keep Chinese buyers on the sidelines in the first part of the new year, an expected surge in supply later in 2017 in the world’s top producers will drive a jump in purchases as prices decline, according to analysts and traders.

China begins a week-long Lunar New Year holiday on Jan. 27 and palm oil is used to fry noodles, dumplings and spring rolls.

China’s imports plunged 24 percent to 4.48 million metric tons in 2016, the lowest since 2005, as benchmark futures surged 25 percent after El Nino squeezed supplies in Indonesia and Malaysia.

A weaker yuan and state sales of rapeseed oil reserves also reduced the attractiveness of palm oil for local buyers.

With production set to recover in the two biggest producers in the second half, prices should fall to levels that attracts Chinese buying, according to veteran edible oils analyst James Fry.

“China, like India, is a price-sensitive market,” Fry, the chairman of LMC International Ltd., said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur on Jan. 17.

“As we get a ramp up in palm production, then we will see China buying more palm oil.”

The El Nino between 2015 and early 2016 reduced global palm oil output by 6.8 million tons last year, Ling Ah Hong, director of Malaysian plantation consultant Ganling Sdn., said Jan. 17.

As rain returns, production in the second half of this year will recover strongly with double-digit growth each month, said Ling, who has 40 years experience in the plantation industry.

Increasing supply will soften prices, which may drop as low as 2,200 ringgit ($496) toward the last quarter of the year, he added.

Benchmark palm oil prices on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed at 3,149 ringgit a ton on Tuesday.

“In the second quarter, following the recovery of production in major exporting countries, palm oil prices may decrease,” making it more competitive with soyoil and rapeseed oil and driving imports again, said Zheng Zuting, an analyst at China National Grain and Oils Information Center.

The decline in inbound shipments last year, coupled with low inventories, could see China’s imports recover sooner. Purchases may jump 10 percent to 15 percent in the first half, according to Tommy Xiao, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.

They may reach 5.1 million tons to 5.2 million tons in the year started October 2016, from 4.7 million tons a year earlier, he said.

CNGOIC estimates that imports may total 5 million tons in 2016-17.

Volumes still may not reach the records seen two to three years ago when traders purchased large amounts to boost inventories for financing purposes, according to Gao Yanbin, an investment manager with agriculture investment firm Shanghai Shenkai Investment Co.

Imports are now largely driven by demand, and inventories would be kept at a low level, said Gao.

“China may buy more palm oil in the third quarter, in line with higher production and possibly lower prices,” said Alan Lim, plantations and property analyst at MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd.

“The factor that consumers in China take into consideration is the discount between crude palm oil and soybean oil. If the discount widens, they will shift more of their consumption to palm oil.” - Bloomberg

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #191 on: January 26, 2017, 02:35:41 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #192 on: January 27, 2017, 10:40:59 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #193 on: January 31, 2017, 11:56:30 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #194 on: February 01, 2017, 07:25:01 AM »



基本价每公吨3279.76令吉
2月棕油出口税涨至7.5%
29点看 2017年2月1日
(吉隆坡31日讯)大马关税局公布,2月原棕油出口的基本价,设定在每公吨3279.76令吉。

因此,2月的原棕油出口税,将从1月的7%,上调至7.5%。


政府在去年12月把大马原棕油出口税下调至6%后,今年1月开始调高。

2月原棕油基本价定在每公吨3279.76令吉,因此,原棕油出口税为7.5%

原棕油价格一旦超过2250令吉的门槛,将会被征税,最低税率为4.5%起跳,最高为8.5%。


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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #195 on: February 01, 2017, 07:02:22 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #196 on: February 02, 2017, 10:35:55 AM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #197 on: February 03, 2017, 02:11:31 PM »



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #198 on: February 04, 2017, 07:28:09 AM »



财经  2017年02月03日
產量回升 令吉回稳 棕油价格次季承压

產量回升 令吉回稳 棕油价格次季承压

(吉隆坡3日讯)儘管原棕油价格仍呈上涨趋势,但棕油主要出產国的產量预计將在今年第2季开始缓缓復甦,加上令吉匯率逐渐走强和大豆油对棕油的溢价收窄,分析员认为,棕油价格届时將会面临压力。

无论如何,隨著调高2017和2018年的原棕油平均价预测至每公吨2600令吉,艾芬黄氏资本分析员调高部份种植股的投资评级和目標价。

可是,从市值总额比较,获得「守住」评级的种植股,高于获得「买进」的种植股,所以该分析员维持种植领域「中和」投资评级。

截至週五下午5时,大马衍生產品交易所的4月份原棕油期货合约跌13令吉或0.42%,至每公吨3059令吉。


艾芬黄氏资本分析员指出,2015年至2016年期间的厄尔尼诺(ElNino)现象为史上最强之一,其滯后效应將在2017年首数个月內继续影响全球棕油產量,直至今年次季才有望渐渐恢復。

「因此,我们调整之前较为乐观的预测,把大马种植业者的2017年棕油產量预估按年增长率,从10%到15%,下修至5%到10%。」

该分析员补充道,根据油世界(OilWorld)的预测,2016年至2017年的世界棕油產量將按年提高9.8%,从5810万公吨,增至6380万公吨;而两大棕油生產国,即大马和印尼的棕油產量也將在同期內分別按年反弹9.4%与11.5%,至1934万公吨及3485万公吨。

在棕油產量增加的同时,分析员表示,棕油出口量也会隨著全球经济成长前景改善,而有所提升。

2因素激励棕油出口

他透露,全球各地,尤其是新兴市场的人均食用油量增高,还有中国等主要棕油进口国开始重新补充棕油库存,是另外两个激励棕油出口的利好因素。

「因此,我们相信,大马2017全年的棕油库存水平应会保持在200万公吨以下的水平,即少过每月出口量的1.6倍。」

此外,分析员指出,世界8大食用油如棕油、大豆油、菜籽油等,在过去逾1年的供应量缩减,因而支撑了食用油总体价格;不过,他预测,8大食用油在去年至今年的產量,將按年上涨6.3%,到1亿7730万公吨的水平。

「无论如何,8大食用油的库存使用率应会从2015年至2016年间的13.5%,降低至13.3%,因世界食用油消耗量的增幅得比库存量快。」

另一方面,分析员透露,棕油和主要竞爭对手--大豆油的价格在2016年杪皆呈上涨趋势,但棕油涨得比大豆油快,导致大豆油对棕油的溢价,已经缩小到每公吨80美元,这或会令部份进口商转投大豆油的怀抱,阻碍棕油价格进一步攀升。

「目前,美国和巴西的大豆產量已达歷史新高水平,预测去年至今年间的全球大豆產量將会因此按年提高6.8%,至333万公吨;还有,美国总统特朗普或会削弱该国的生物柴油(Biodiesel)推动计划,这可能造成大量大豆出现在市场的风险。」

种植业前景中和

艾芬黄氏资本分析员表示,隨著预期棕油產量將逐渐回升的情况下,目前高达每公吨3200至3300令吉的棕油价料难以维持。因此,他维持大马种植业「中和」投资评级。

不过,他调高了所追踪的大部份种植股的投资评级和目標价格,因为他已將2017至2018年的原棕油平均价预估,从之前的每公吨2400令吉,上调至每公吨2600令吉。

同时,他將所追踪的种植股在2017至2018年的每股核心盈利预测,分別调高2至22%,而目標价的上修幅度则介于10%(合成统一)至69%(FELDA环球投资)

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #199 on: February 04, 2017, 07:45:23 AM »



Friday, 3 February 2017 | MYT 8:43 PM
Malaysia reclaims position as top exporter of palm oil to China
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/03/12/47/dcx_doc6t97t9npq8kaawax8yp.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=77F0837AFC60267E77B97C55C5777A3C673F3BC9
Mah says Malaysia overtook Indonesia in palm oil exports in the third and fourth quarters of last year.
Mah says Malaysia overtook Indonesia in palm oil exports in the third and fourth quarters of last year.
 
TELUK INTAN: Malaysia has reclaimed its position as the world’s major exporter of palm oil to China, overtaking Indonesia with a growth of 53.6% in the last six months of last year.

Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong said that the positive development also boosted the country’s palm oil export from 647.1 metric tonnes in the January-June 2016 period to 993.9 metric tonnes in the July-December 2016 period.

“Malaysian palm oil imports into China declined about 50% in the January-June 2016 period compared with the same period in 2015.

“In the January-June 2016 period, we only managed to export 647.1 metric tonnes (to China) against 1,256.9 metric tonnes by Indonesia.

“Subsequently, we overtook Indonesia’s palm oil exports in the third and fourth quarters which saw their exports declining 21% to 993.2 metric tonnes,” he told reporters after visiting a 100-year-old resident in Jalan Woo Saik Hong in Teluk Intan on Friday.

He was accompanied by Minister Counselor of the Chinese Embassy to Malaysia Ma Jia.

Mah attributed the increased exports of palm oil to China to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s visit to Beijing in early November last year.

Meanwhile, Ma Jia hoped Malaysia would remain the major exporter of palm oil to China. - Bernama

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/03/malaysia-reclaims-position-as-top-exporter-of-palm-oil-to-china/#0HD8rywEKBI8ZGO4.99