Author Topic: CRUDE PALM OIL  (Read 39194 times)

Offline king

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CRUDE PALM OIL
« on: January 16, 2016, 01:55:04 PM »


财经  2016年01月15日
原油棕油价相关性减弱

(吉隆坡15日讯)隨著国际原油价格跌跌不休,原油价格和棕油价格之间的相关性已经减弱。分析员对此持「中和」態度,並表示,布伦特原油必须重回每桶80美元(约350令吉)水平,两者之间渐弱的相关性才得以恢復。

MIDF研究分析员称道,原油价格和棕油价格相关性趋弱,並不是最近的事情。实际上,原油及棕油价格之间的关联性在布伦特原油于2014年11月跌破每桶80美元水平时,就开始出现偏差。

截至2015年杪,当布伦特原油暴跌47%,至每桶37.28美元,棕油价格才下滑14%,至每公吨545美元。统计学而言,从2014年11月至2015年12月,布伦特原油和棕油价格的相关性跌至0.57。

该分析员指出,布伦特原油必须反弹至每桶80美元水平,棕油及原油价格的相关性才得以显著增强。

「这主要是因为原油重回每桶80美元以上水平,独立生物柴油製造商对棕油的需求量才能死灰復燃。」

另一方面,《路透社》日前报导指出,原油价格挫跌致使食用油价格比化石燃料价格高出两倍,印尼和大马应抑制將棕油转化成生物柴油的活动。

印尼打算于2016年把当地柴油中的最低生物含量比例推高至20%,而大马则在去年將7%的生物含量,推高至10%。

分析员称,根据大马棕油局数据,2015年国內棕油消费按年攀升4%,至296万公吨,相信这主要是由较高的生物柴油使用量所推动。

「儘管2015年原油价格趋跌,我国较高的生物柴油使用率,却带动棕油消费攀升。而这现象並未体现在印尼市场,该国的生物柴油使用量,或无法达到原定的目標。」

该分析员解释说,如果印尼的生物柴油使用量提高,將拉低大马从印尼进口的棕油量。

然而,根据大马棕油局的进口数据,2015年大马的棕油进口量按年暴涨112%,至103公吨,当中过半进口量来自印尼。这代表印尼当局实施生物柴油计划的进度不如预期。

首选IOI集团

无论如何,MIDF研究分析员维持种植业「正面」投资评级,並预测棕油价格走势將改善,预计將介于每公吨2400至2600令吉区间游走。

该分析员的首选种植股是IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和大安控股(TAANN,5012,主板工业股),目標价分別为4.95令吉和6.50令吉。

他说,鉴于IOI集团在去年11月30日,重新被纳入符合伊斯兰教义股项,以及2016財政年首季(截至去年9月30日止)盈利按年攀升41%,至3亿3800万令吉,加上它是一家纯棕油收入的大企业,所以才视该股为首选股。

另外,该分析员看好大安控股,主要是因为拥有强劲的盈利成长和木材出口业务將受惠于美元走强

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2016, 06:22:38 PM »



Indonesia Dec palm oil output falls to nine-month low - Reuters survey
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 18, 2016 : 5:40 PM MYT   
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JAKARTA (Jan 18): Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output slipped to a nine-month low in December, a Reuters survey showed, as Southeast Asia's monsoon season curtailed operations in the world's two biggest producers of the edible oil.

Indonesia's CPO output in December was 2.457 million tonnes, down 12% from 2.8 million tonnes in November and the lowest since March, according to the median estimate in a survey of three industry officials and one plantation company.

Falling output and rising exports may support benchmark palm prices, which climbed nearly 10% in 2015 and are currently trading near RM2,480 (US$564) a tonne.

"Typically, December production will come off because it is a low production month," said plantations analyst Ivy Ng at CIMB Research. "It is quite similar to what Malaysia has experienced."

Last week, data from rival palm grower Malaysia showed that CPO output there fell by 15% in December from the previous month.

Southeast Asia's peak palm oil output usually runs over August to September, with production in the world's top producer Indonesia and No.2 producer Malaysia typically easing as the region heads into its wet season in November.

The Reuters survey pegged Indonesia's CPO exports for December at 2.675 million tonnes, up 28% from November and highest since at least August 2014, when the survey began.

Chinese buying ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday may have boosted palm buying in December, said Ng, adding that many Indonesian sellers have been aggressive in selling palm products at a discount to Malaysia in recent weeks.

According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at 2.425 million tonnes in December, a level not seen since February and down from 2.950 million tonnes in November.

Indonesia's domestic consumption of the tropical oil was estimated in a range between 550,000 tonnes and 767,000 tonnes.

The latest monthly data published by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed November exports at 2.39 million tonnes. GAPKI data for December is yet to be released.

The Reuters survey for December comprises contributions from GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association and Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm oil
companies.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2016, 08:26:04 AM »



财经  2016年01月19日
经济放缓 种植业今年挑战重重

(吉隆坡19日讯)由于全球经济成长放缓,尤其是棕油进口国如中国、美国和欧洲,种植及原產业部长拿督道格拉斯认为,本地种植领域將迎来充满挑战的一年。

大马种植及原產业部长道格拉斯表示,对种植领域来说,2015年是充满挑战的一年。上半年的原棕油平均价是每公吨2230令吉,到了下半年下降至每公吨2105令吉。

同时,他指出,2015年的棕油平均价是每公吨2153令吉。比2014年的每公吨2383令吉滑落9.6%。而2015年的棕油產量是1996万公吨,出口按年略起0.8%,至1744万公吨;至于2015年的平均棕油库存,则从2014年的202万公吨增加30.5%。

道格拉斯是在出席2016年棕油领域展望研討会致词时,发表上述谈话。其他列席者包括大马棕油局(MPOB)主席旺凯里尔及总监拿督朱云美。

与此同时,道格拉斯认为,由于全球经济成长料放缓,尤其是棕油进口国家,比如中国、美国和欧洲,棕油领域在2016年依然会面对不少挑战。

道格拉斯较后接受媒体採访时表示,「虽然如此,市场乐观看待厄尔尼诺气象可支撑棕油价。根据棕油局的最新数据,去年12月份的棕油產量大减。这是良好的现象,並说明政府实施的政策已经奏效,比如柴油和翻种计划。」

此外,他补充,从往年的情况来看,厄尔尼诺来袭后,全年棕油產量一般会减少10%,但不少种植业者已经对此採取应对措施,將其衝击减至最轻。

当被问及政府推出B10柴油计划的进展时,道格拉斯披露,大马现有的柴油產能是260万公吨,內阁將在今年2月尾商討B10柴油计划,政府目前仍需要一些时间和涉及各造协商相关细节。

「政府依然注重大马种植业的发展,我们將沿用现有的策略来挽回棕油领域的市占率,也就是在新兴市场继续寻找商机,比如中国、印度和非洲。」

另外,大马交易所衍生品开发部门副总裁莫利亚兹在棕油研討会上分享说,外匯波动严重影响了棕油市场行情,尤其是美元及人民幣一升一贬的局面。棕油价自2014年起便剧烈波动,並受到美元和人民幣的牵引。

莫利亚兹强调,和1997/1998年金融危机时期相比,当时令吉贬值后对出口有利,棕油价因此扶摇直上。不过,如今美元兑全球主要货幣均走强,即便令吉贬值亦难以提振棕油价。

棕油价波动

谈到棕油领域的今年前景,莫利亚兹坦言,「棕油市场今年料更加剧烈波动,因市场仍笼罩在诸多不明朗因素,较显著的因素有4个:1.美国联储局(Fed)今年或进一步升息;2.中国经济政策;3.厄尔尼诺气象的影响力;4.全球原產品价格。

因此,他呼吁种植业者应该更好地管理棕油价预测及提高营运效率。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2016, 02:51:08 PM »


Vegoils
Palm oil drops nearly 1% on bleak exports
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 20, 2016 : 1:48 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 20): Malaysian palm oil futures slid nearly 1% on Wednesday, falling further from a three-week high reached at the start of the week, after data showed a drop in exports this month.

Palm oil prices have come under pressure in the absence of an expected pick up in imports by key consumer China, ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations in February. A slowdown in growth in the world's No.2 economy and ample world supplies of rival soyoil have curbed the country's demand for the tropical oil.

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1% to 2,454 ringgit (US$561.81) per tonne by midday, below Monday's near three-week
top of 2,495 ringgit. Traded volume stood at 15,762 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The market fall, has quite a lot to do with the export data," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) shows an 8.5% month-on-month drop in Malaysian palm oil exports over Jan 1-20.

"These are very low numbers which I was not expecting. I thought exports would at least maintain, because we are still dealing with zero percent duty on crude palm oil," the trader added.

Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm producer after Indonesia, has kept its crude palm oil export tax at zero for the past nine months.

Palm oil may slide more to a support at 2,430 ringgit per tonne, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

In related markets, U.S. crude futures hit their lowest since September 2003 below US$28 a barrel, on worries over global oversupply.
   
The U.S. March soyoil contract was down 0.5%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.3%

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2016, 03:48:42 PM »


FGV shares down after CIMB cuts TP
By Danial Idraki / theedgemarkets.com   | January 26, 2016 : 3:22 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 26): Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) ( Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 1.15)'s shares fell two sen or 1.3% amid broader market losses and after CIMB Investment Bank Bhd ( Valuation: 1.65, Fundamental: 0.55) cut its target price (TP) for the plantation stock.

At 2:34pm, FGV shares were traded at RM1.48 for a market capitalisation of RM5.4 billion. The stock saw some two million shares done.

At 2.52pm, the FBM KLCI fell 2.41 points to 1,622.80.

In a note to clients today, CIMB said it cut its FGV TP to RM1.49 from RM1.73 while maintaining its "reduce" call for the stock.

CIMB said it raised its FGV discount to sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation from 30% to 40% over concerns about the company's plan to acquire a stake in Indonesia's PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk (EHP).

"We are keeping our earnings forecasts, but lower our target price as we raise the discount to our SOP valuation from 30% to 40%.

"The persistent news flow on its plans to acquire EHP at a premium over its market price may dampen sentiment on share prices of the company," CIMB said.

CIMB's note followed a report on FGV by The Edge Malaysia business and investment weekly (The Edge Weekly) in its latest Jan 25–31 issue.

The Edge Weekly, quoting sources, reported that FGV and its major shareholder Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) were close to securing a 30% discount to the initial price tag of US$680 million (RM2.92 billion) for a 37% stake in EHP.

It was reported that negotiations were geared towards Felda acquiring most of the 37% stake while FGV purchases a minority stake

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2016, 05:36:17 PM »



Tuesday, 26 January 2016 | MYT 12:08 PM
Global palm oil output to be lower than forecast for 2016
BY NADYA NGUI







 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Global palm oil production is expected to be lower in 2016 than forecast due to the El Niño phenomenon, which will affect output.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said on Tuesday the worst El Niño in almost two decades curbed output in Malaysia while Indonesia would increase its biodiesel mandate to the 20% blend.

"This would create uncertainties in supplies thus preventing the CPO price from falling below the 2015 levels," it said.

"Prices of palm oil is forecast to be at an average of RM2,590 per tonne and they will not likely fall below RM2,000," it said.

MPOC added the upward trend in CPO prices would continue into 2016 due to lower than expected production of palm oils.

As for crude oil prices, MPOC said they were expected to remain low as supply continues to outpace demand in 2016 and more crude oil is placed into storage.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that global oil inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels per day last year, marking the second consecutive year of inventory builds.

"Inventories are forecasted to rise by an additional 700,000 barrels per day this year. OPEC crude oil production is forecasted to increase by 500,000 barrels per day this year with Iran accounting for most of that increase," it said.

The report added global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels in both this year and the next

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2016, 11:12:04 AM »



FGV acquires Eagle High Plantations at premium
By CIMB Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | January 27, 2016 : 10:20 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 27, 2016.

 

Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd ( Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 1.15)
(Jan 26, RM1.45)
Maintain reduce with a lower target price (TP) of RM1.49 (from RM1.73): It was reported that Felda Global Ventures (FGV) and its parent, the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), are understood to be close to securing a 30% discount to the initial price tag of US$680 million (RM2.9 billion) for a 37% stake in PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk (BWPT IJ for Rp137 [four sen]).

Felda_fd_270116

The ongoing negotiations with Rajawali Group, the parent of Eagle High, could be concluded within a few weeks, according to sources. The sources also said that the negotiations are geared towards Felda acquiring most of the 37% stake in Eagle High, while FGV purchases “a minority stake”.

This is the picture being painted now and there have been a few delays and variations. With 30% shaved off the original price tag, the price for the stake in Eagle High would be US$476 million at current exchange rates.

Meanwhile, it was reported that the FGV’s management expects negotiations on Eagle High to be concluded by March. If this transaction materialises as reported and FGV buys a 10% stake in Eagle High for around Rp563 per share (30% discount to the last proposed price), it will be negative for FGV as this could potentially dilute FGV’s value by RM416 million (or 11 sen per share).

This is because at Rp563 per share, the group will be paying a premium of 410% to Eagle High’s current market price of Rp137 per share, for a small stake.

The persistent news flow on its plans to acquire Eagle High at a premium to its market price may dampen sentiment on the share prices of the company.

On top of this, the group’s financial year 2015 (FY15) results are likely to remain weak as it posted a 6% year-on-year decline in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output for 11 months of 2015 (11M15), which is sharper than our estimate of a 5% decline for the full year as well as below Malaysia palm oil output growth of 1% in 11M15.

We suspect this could be due to declining FFB yields at its estates.

We are keeping our earnings forecasts, but lower our TP as we raise the discount to our sum-of-parts valuation from 30% to 40%. The higher discount is to reflect our concerns over its plans to buy Eagle High, as well as for its lower-than-expected output achievement. — CIMB Research, Jan 2

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2016, 02:27:22 PM »


Palm oil may drop to 2,430 ringgit
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 27, 2016 : 1:48 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (Jan 27): Palm oil may drop to 2,430 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a triangle.

The pattern developed from the Dec 31, 2015 high of 2,508 ringgit. Its upper trendline has established resistance at 2,480 ringgit, which has caused a correction towards the lower trendline around 2,430 ringgit.

Palm oil may rise again after retracing to 2,430 ringgit, as wave pattern suggests that it is riding on a wave C, which may extend to 2,535 ringgit, its 161.8% Fibonacci projection level.

The contract will face a resistance at 2,495 ringgit, the 138.2% level, after it breaks above 2,480 ringgit. Only a break above 2,495 ringgit could confirm the extension of the wave C towards 2,535 ringgit. - by Wang Tao, Reuter

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2016, 06:50:54 AM »



外劳占78%‧涨幅154% 调涨人头税种植业最伤
财经新闻 财经  2016-02-03 10:01

 


(吉隆坡2日讯)政府大幅调涨外劳人头税,种植领域首当其冲且受伤最重,建筑和手套业者则相对“轻伤”,有望借助转嫁成本机制和自动化生产过程,来抵御冲击。
根据联昌国际投行研究报告,种植领域的外劳人头税从每名590令吉,提高至每名1500令吉,涨幅达154%,为高度依赖外劳的业者带来意外的负面消息。
该行分析员指出,我国种植领域的劳工当中,外劳就占了78%比例,因此,业者可能需要自行承担高企的人头税成本。
财测看跌1至8%
“虽然现在还不清楚种植业者会自行承担成本,或把成本转嫁给员工,但我们相信大马业者在刚开始时,会吸纳大部分的成本,因国内园丘劳工短缺。”
假设业者承担了这些额外成本,估计联昌国际投行研究正追踪的公司,2016财年财测将下滑1%至8%。
在这当中,土展创投(FGV,5222,主板种植股)与合成统一(HAPSENG,3034,主板贸易服务股)的盈利将受到最大冲击,因两者盈利基础低企,且大部分盈利都来自原棕油种植。
大众投行研究分析员点出,预期外劳人头税攀升后,会把业者的生产成本推高4%至6%,达每公吨1450至1500令吉水平。
“不过,我们看好原棕油价格可在今年上涨20%,并抵消这方面的冲击,因此,预料高企的营运成本不会对国内业者带来太多压力。”
大众投行研究重申“增持”种植领域,并青睐可显著得益的纯上游种植业者,即云顶种植(GENP,2291,主板种植股)、陈顺风(TSH,9059,主板种植股)、嘉隆发展(TDM,2054,主板种植股)和大安(TAANN,5012,主板工业产品股)。
联昌国际投行研究分析员则认为,政府调涨外劳人头税,将抵消原棕油价格有望走高的部分利好因素,因此对种植领域维持“中和”评级。
至于该行的区域首选买入股,分别为云顶种植、印尼Astra Agro和新加坡第一资源(First Resources)。


转嫁成本受看好 手套业自动化减外劳
至于手套领域,联昌国际投行研究分析员看好转嫁成本方式,以及业者专注在自动化生产过程,有助抵消有关冲击。
分析员说,手套领域同样面临外劳人头税调高至每名2500令吉的挑战,可能会拖累整体领域的净利,在今年下跌1%至2%。
财测下修0.9至1.5%
达证券分析员也将今年的财测,下修0.9%至1.5%,来反映业者在短期内蒙受成本压力的因素。
不过,联昌国际投行研究分析员认为,这并不会对业者造成严重影响,而且预期业者可能会与外劳共同分担这些额外成本。
“此外,大部分手套公司都已经通过自动化生产过程,来专注提高效率,有助减少对外劳的依赖。”
然而,有关政策改革可能会拖累手套领域,在接下来越来越难吸引到外劳。
无论如何,分析员仍看好手套领域的盈利前景和市场需求,因而维持“增持”
评级,并将顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业产品股)列为首选买入股。
“如今,由于投资者预期令吉走强,所以冲击了手套股的股价走势,我们看好这将成为买入良机。”

漂白计划带动 MyEG净利看涨22%
联昌国际投行研究分析员指出,虽然MyEG(MYEG,0138,主板贸服股)无法从外劳人头税走高中得益,但未来有望受惠于政府的非法外劳漂白计划。
分析员表示,外劳人头税并不影响MyEG的营业额和盈利,该公司只从提供外劳更新工作准证的服务,取得每名35令吉的收入,以及通过销售外劳的强制保险,抽取60至70令吉的佣金。
因此,MyEG未来的净利表现,将取决于非法外劳漂白计划。
“我们相信国内的非法外劳人数,达到400万至500万人,据此,保守预测MyEG在未来2至3个月,帮助100万名非法外劳注册,那么今明财年每股净利有望扬升18%至22%。”
目标价RM2.83
此外,若消费税监督系统在今年中成功推介,也将成为该公司的催化剂。
由此,分析员建议“增持”MyEG,目标价为2.83令吉。
外劳成本扬11至25% 建筑业净利减2至4%
在建筑领域方面,外劳人头税倍增至每名2500令吉,同样为业者带来负面消息,但有望在未来逐步管理和控制。
联昌国际投行研究分析员预期,在外劳人头税走高后,建筑承包商的外劳成本将扬升11%至25%,不过仍处于可控制范围。
“从整体领域来看,劳工成本占了总成本的20%至25%,因此,假设业者并未转嫁这方面的成本,可能会拖累净利减少2%至4%。”
分析员向承包商探悉,业者要转嫁有关成本,还必须取决于数个因素。
其中,业者的正进行或未完成合约,可在工程最终认证阶段时索取额外款项,以解决外劳人头税上涨所带来的额外开销。
至于即将竞标和正在竞标的合约,两者可分别进行调整和纳入有关税收的影响。
分析员点出,虽然所有承包商都沦为输家,但有些业者具有更好的缓冲能力,可抵御这当面的冲击。
“那些大部分工作订单处于即将完工阶段的承包商,受到的冲击最少;而大部分订单进行到20%至30%阶段的承包商,则很可能在取得额外索款前,陷入赚幅萎缩的窘境。”
大型基建撑盈利
在该行所追踪的公司中,金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)可在今年“逃过一劫”,因该公司负责的捷运第一路线(MRT1)已接近完工,而捷运第二路线(MRT2)还在竞标中。
而睦兴旺(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)从提炼与石油化学工业综合发展计划(RAPID),所获得的以美元计价合约,有助抵消外劳人头税高企的影响。
分析员续称,随着2016年财政预算案的大部分项目照跑,有望为建筑领域捎来佳音,因此,投资者应在下半年,专注于领域回稳的消息。
“由此,若政府调高外劳人头税的消息,拖累了建筑股的股价表现,我们看好这将成为买入良机。”
该行因而维持建筑领域的“增持”评级,并将金务大和睦兴旺列为首选买入股。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2016, 09:19:13 AM »

Wednesday, 3 February 2016
Palm oil shares tumble on sudden 154% spike in foreign worker levy
BY HANIM ADNANandJACK WONG







 Due to the labour-intensive nature of the industry, the rise in the levy from RM590 to RM1,500 per month will see planters forking out an additional RM910 per worker.
Due to the labour-intensive nature of the industry, the rise in the levy from RM590 to RM1,500 per month will see planters forking out an additional RM910 per worker.
 
PETALING JAYA: The 154% rise in the levy for foreign workers in the plantation sector has taken a toll on oil palm stocks whose landbank is concentrated in Malaysia.

Due to the labour-intensive nature of the industry, the rise in the levy from RM590 to RM1,500 per month will see planters forking out an additional RM910 per worker.

This is based on the feedback from industry players, who expect the impact to be felt in their bottom line this year.

Yesterday, major plantation companies that are part of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (FBM KLCI) were among the largest decliners on the exchange.

Sime Darby Bhd fell 50 sen to close at RM7.57, while IOI Corp Bhd fell 23 sen to RM4.62. Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd fell 40 sen to close at RM23.50. All together, the three contributed to a decline of eight points in the FBM KLCI. The index fell 14.62 points to close at 1,653.18 points.

Industry players generally are expecting a potential cut in their earnings of between 3% and 8% this year from the unexpected hike in the foreign worker levy, which takes effect this month.

CIMB Research expects a potentially higher earnings cut at Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) and Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd, given their lower earnings base and higher earnings exposure to palm oil.

Depending on the sheer size of their foreign worker workforce, the research unit expects that listed planters would need to pay an additional cost of between RM5mil and RM30mil this year for the new levy.

Currently, foreign workers represent about 80% of the total workforce in oil palm estates nationwide. The key cost components of crude palm oil (CPO) production are fertilisers, labour and plantation upkeep, with labour and fertiliser representing over 50% of the total.

The labour cost (especially palm fruit harvesters) alone is about 30% of local planters’ current total cost of production, which averages about RM1,450 to RM1,500 per tonne of CPO. In Malaysia, most listed plantation companies generally hire over 6,000 foreign workers, with FGV and Sime Darby Bhd being the highest, each hiring almost 30,000 foreign workers.

CIMB Research in its latest report said FGV and Sime Darby could end up paying an additional cost of over RM20mil this year from the new foreign worker levy, while other planters with below 10,000 foreign workers could fork out between RM5mil and RM10mil this year.

FGV group president and chief executive officer (CEO) Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah told StarBiz that the sudden move would push up the company’s cost drastically.

FGV currently employs 29,000 foreign workers across its 134 plantations, he said, adding that “the company is still in need of another 5,000 workers to ensure continuous effectiveness in its plantations”.

FGV would like to highlight that the palm oil industry as a whole has been affected by the slump in CPO prices and the strengthening of the US dollar.

The CPO price slumped to a six-year low in August 2015 and the US dollar strengthened against the ringgit by 18%, with the US dollar and ringgit exchange rate closing at a high of RM4.45 in December last year.

Therefore, Emir said FGV was appealing to the Government to reconsider its decision to increase the levy for foreign workers in the plantation sector.

“The increase is bearable for the FGV Group only if the CPO price goes above RM2,800 per tonne,” he added.

The three-month CPO futures contract is currently trading at its highest since May 2014, up by RM77 to RM2,520 per tonne as at 5pm yesterday. For Sabah-based IJM Plantations Bhd, its CEO and managing director Joseph Tek Choon Yee said: “With our over 3,500 workers and the additional RM910 per worker under the new levy, it will work out to be about RM3.2mil this year.”

Tek, who is also the Malaysian Estate Owners Association president, said the association was hoping that the authorities would reconsider this unabated and untimely 154% hike, given the low crop production on the back of the rising cost of production and unattractive CPO spot prices. In the context of Sabah planters, there are many dependents in addition to the workers.

“The dependents are less productive and they too need to be subjected to the levies and subsequently are also subjected to the supposed increment in the minimum wage to be implemented this July,” added Tek.

Meanwhile, oil palm plantation players at a dialogue session with Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Amar Douglas Uggah Embas hosted by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council in Kuching yesterday have also raised concerns over the new foreign worker levy.

Sarawak Oil Palm Plantation Owners Association chairman Datu Vasco Sabat Singkang said the new levy on foreign workers came as a big shock for its members as “this would tremendously increase their operational cost”.

He pointed out that most Sarawak planters were heavily dependent on foreign workers, mostly Indonesians, in the estates.

To lessen the impact of the hike, Sabat urged the Government to alternatively extend the number of years for foreign workers allowed to work in Sarawak probably to four or five years.

Tek also urged the Government to defer the implementation of the minimum wage from RM900 to RM1,000 in Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 to RM920 in Sarawak and Sabah from July 1 this year.

On the windfall profit tax on palm oil, he said the Government should consider abolishing it, as “it holds no relevance in today’s environment


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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2016, 08:21:45 PM »



财经  2016年02月05日
乾旱影响產量 棕油库存料创新低

(吉隆坡5日讯)厄尔尼诺(EL Nino)引起的乾旱气候,料会致使棕油產量下滑,可能导致大马今年1月棕油库存下跌至去年7月以来的新低水平。

根据《彭博社》向8家种植公司、交易商及分析员进行调查,今年1月份库存预料会下跌11%,至233万公吨。

根据大马棕油局数据,若库存如预期般走低的话,估计这將是今年跌幅最严重的一次。

此外,估计1月份棕油產量將降低15%,至119万公吨,写下自去年2月以来的最低水平;出口则將减少约9%,至135万公吨。大马棕油局將在2月10日公布1月份棕油数据。

英国市场研究机构BMI Research表示,棕油供应走低,可能会推动期货走高,抵消中国需求降低带来的冲击。

在2月时,棕油期货价格走高至20个月新高水平,因厄尔尼诺效应的滯后影响所致。因此,不利的天气应有助於棕油在目前疲软的大宗商品中脱颖而出。

东泰期货交易商马塞罗考堤里拉指出,市场现在强烈关注產量,而不是中国需求,因为价格已被压制。在2月至3月期间,棕油价格可触及每公吨2600至2700令吉之间。

驻扎汉堡的研究员预测,今年全球棕油產量仅为40万公吨,远远低於5年平均的320万公吨。

此外,联昌国际期货交易商也说道,2月份的產量可能会走低,受乾旱及较少的收割日所影响。

因此,他指出,沙巴的雨量低於平均水平,乾旱气候会持续至3月为止。

在印尼方面,印尼兴业资本证券分析员表示,在去年5月至10月期间,来自厄尔尼诺影响,將会在今年首季全面扩散。

根据Intertek Testing Services船运调查机构以及SGS公司数据,大马1月份棕油出口降低10%,至115万公吨;进口则维持在8万公吨。

同时,《彭博社》调查指出,预测国內消费介於19万至26万公吨

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2016, 11:15:41 AM »



CIMB negative on palm oil tax move by France and Russia
By Supriya Surendran / theedgemarkets.com   | February 10, 2016 : 10:53 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR(Feb 10): CIMB Research says that it views negatively the proposals to impose additional taxes on palm oil by France and Russia, as it will make the commodity less competitive against other competing oils.

In a Feb 7 note, CIMB said that at present, palm oil trades at discounts of US$60/US$139 per tonne against soybean oils Brazil/Dutch free on board (fob).

“If the additional palm oil taxes of US$200/tonne and EUR197 (US$219/tonne) are imposed by Russia and France, it will make palm oil less competitive against soybean oils in these countries, [and ]this could result in lower palm oil prices due to weaker demand,” read CIMB’s note.

The Russian government is considering imposing an excise tax on palm oil and soda drinks to help balance its budget, and reduce the consumption of products it considers unhealthy. According to a  business daily report, the tax on palm oil amounting to around US$200 per tonne may be introduced on July 1.

The French government is also planning to impose a progressive tax on palm oil based products. The proposed tax was included in a bill on bio-diversity passed by the French Senate on Jan 21, 2016. On March 15, the Senate and the Congress will make a decision on the bill.

If approved, exporters of palm oil will need to pay EUR300, EUR500, EUR700 and EUR900 for each tonne of palm oil for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, very much higher than the current EUR103/tonne in tax for Indonesia palm products.

After 2020, the tax would be raised annually, as per the decision of the French ministry of finance The bill also sets an import tax of 3.8% for palm oil used in food and 4.6% for kernels used in food products, and the tax proceeds will go towards France’s social security fund.

According to the French senate, the bill is proposed to address several environmental concerns mainly to help fight deforestation and ecosystem damage caused by palm oil,to eradicate the use of dangerous pesticides (paraquat) in oil palm plantations and to help lower health risks, such as heart attacks and Alzheimer’s disease, stemming from palm oil consumption.

“Indonesia has strongly condemned the plan by France to impose a progressive tax on all palm oil-based products and has submitted their objections to the French government [and]Malaysia is also protesting the tax,” said CIMB.

The research house added the objections are premised on France, Denmark, Britain, Germany and the Netherlands being signatories to the Amsterdam agreement that supports sustainable palm oil production practices, and that the tax is discriminatory as French vegetable oils are not taxed equally and it is a violation against World Trade Organization , General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and European Union (EU) market rules.

Their protests are also based on claims that Indonesia has already adopted Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil standards, the use of paraquat pesticides has stopped and the health scare claims are untrue.

In 2014, France and Russia imported around 126,000 and 748,000 tonnes respectively of palm oil. In total, these make up around 1.5% of total palm oil output of 60million tonnes in 2014.

“Although the amount of palm oil that may be at risk of being substituted with other edible oils may not be significant on paper, we are concerned that the negative sentiment on and image of palm oil could spread to other countries, in particular within the EU, which is a big consumer of palm oil at 12% of total palm oil output.

“We maintain neutral on the sector. Our top pick [for Malaysia] is Genting Plantations Bhd,” said CIMB Research.

At 10.33 am today, Genting Plantation and United Plantations Bhd shares were not traded. Other palm oil players such as Sime Darby Bhd shares were down 18 sen or 2.29% to RM7.69 and  Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd shares were down 6 sen or 0.25% to RM23.76 respectively.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2016, 07:07:48 AM »


财经  2016年02月10日
1月棕油產量大减 库存意外跌12.4%

1月棕油產量大减 库存意外跌12.4%

(吉隆坡10日讯)厄尔尼诺效应,导致大马棕油產量大跌,库存也在1月底跌至5个月新低水平,按月下滑12.4%至231万公吨,跌幅高于市场预测的9.3%。

棕油库存量下滑支撑基准棕油价格走高,棕油期货合约价格上週五上探21个月新高,至每公吨2604令吉。

不过,该合约价格週三盘中则因为出口数据疲弱而下滑0.4%,至每公吨2571令吉。

闭市,原棕油期货下滑至每公吨2555令吉。

大马棕油局(MPOB)今日公佈的棕油库存量,从去年12月底的263万公吨,下跌12.4%至231万公吨。

根据《路透社》早前进行的调查显示,市场预计库存量將下滑9.3%至239万公吨,因此实际的库存跌幅比市场预期更大。

此外,棕油產量下跌,是库存减少的主要原因。

大马1月份的棕油產量下滑19.3%,至113万公吨,1月往往是產量较低的季节,今年的產量下跌,亦是受到厄尔尼诺的乾旱气候影响,导致鲜果串產量受限。

新加坡星展银行(DBS)分析员本桑托索说,「棕油价格的走势或多或少受到库存量影响,而我认为厄尔尼诺现象將导致棕油库存今年內保持在低水平。」

他补充,今年棕油產量將会更低。

植物油分析师多纳米斯特表示,大马的棕油供应量在今年上半年將会下滑。而棕油专家傅雷(James Fry)则表示,东南亚棕油產量或將下跌400万公吨。



次季棕油价上看2700

米斯特指出,產量下跌或將带动棕油价格在今年次季走高至每公吨2700令吉。

另外,大马棕油出货量由去年12月份的148万公吨,下跌13.8%至128万公吨。

Pelindung Bestari董事林甘表示,中国將目光转向大豆类,导致棕油精与豆油之间的价差收窄。「棕油价格在短期內相信將会持稳,不过一旦產量回升,则需求量將成为一个问题。」

此外,由於出口至中国的数量减少,因此,大马2月份首10天的棕油出货量,按月下跌22.7%

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2016, 11:14:06 AM »


LATEST NEWS, CORPORATE
Technicals
Palm oil to climb to 2,672 ringgit
By Reuters / Reuters   | February 12, 2016 : 11:01 AM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (Feb 12): Palm oil is expected to climb to 2,672 ringgit per tonne, as it has cleared a resistance at 2,585 ringgit.

The resistance was provided by the 61.8 percent Fibonacci projection level of an upward wave C, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the Aug. 25, 2015 low of 1,863 ringgit. This wave is capable of travelling to 2,813 ringgit, its 100 percent projection level.

The next resistance will be at 2,672 ringgit, the 76.4 percent level, a break above which could open the way to 2,813 ringgit. A correction from the current level could be limited to the Feb. 5 high of 2,604 ringgit. - Reuter

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2016, 11:05:22 AM »
United Malacca’s acquisition a good start in Indonesia
By Kenanga Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | February 15, 2016 : 10:04 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 15, 2016.

 

United Malacca Bhd
(Feb 12, RM5.99)
Maintain outperform with a higher target price of RM7.50 (from RM7.05): Recall that in our results note report published on Dec 16, 2015, it was stated that United Malacca Bhd had proposed to acquire an 83% stake in PT Lifere Agro Kapuas (LAK) from Lincoln Wilshire Investments Ltd for a total cash consideration of US$66.4 million (RM275.56 million).

LAK holds a plantation licence for 24,600ha of plantation land, of which 10,400ha are planted areas, while the estimated plantable area is 17,100ha.

Of the existing planted areas, 5,200ha are LAK’s own planted area, while the balance 5,100ha area is allocated to smallholders.

We believe the implied valuation of the deal at US$7,700 per planted hectare is fair, as we estimate that Indonesian brownfield is valued at about RM30,000 per hectare.

United-Malacca_FD150216_theedgemarkets

Note that the LAK purchase was completed on Jan 22, with United Malacca financing the deal through its own cash reserves and first borrowings (US$50 million) in its 105-year history.

We expect full contributions from the acquisition in the fourth quarter ending April 30, 2016 (4QFY16).

We gather that management expects 4,400ha of its Indonesian area to reach maturity in 2016. This is higher than our initial assumption of 2,000ha. We believe the Indonesian land is likely to drive its mid-term earnings growth.

The group’s FY16 to FY17 estimated Malaysian fresh fruit bunch (FFB) growth is more modest at 6% to 4%.

All in, the new area will improve group FY16 to FY17 estimated FFB growth to 6% to 12%. As a result, we up our FY16 to FY17 estimated earnings by 38% to RM53.3 million to RM82.2 million.

With LAK’s young average tree age of only 3.3 years, we believe the Indonesian area will continue to contribute to consistent group FFB growth over the next eight to 10 years.

The LAK acquisition also improves United Malacca’s existing age profile, bringing down its current average age from 9.7 years to 8.5 years.

We expect peak production growth in the Indonesian area to kick in from 2020, as plantings in 2012 to 2013 hit their prime production period (seven to 12 years), thus ensuring continued group FFB growth in the long term.

Management noted that the LAK acquisition had good long-term expansion potential in the upstream to midstream segments.

We understand that on the upstream side, United Malacca plans to construct its own mill in FY17 to FY18 to cater for its own production. We also gather that there are opportunities to expand land bank in nearby areas.

On the midstream side, the LAK acquisition includes a refinery licence, which United Malacca intends to utilise in the long term.

Overall, we believe that the LAK acquisition serves as a good starting point for United Malacca to build up its presence in Indonesia, while diversifying its group earnings base with midstream expansion.

We believe United Malacca’s Indonesian expansion bodes well for its mid- to long-term earnings growth, given its high quantum of maturing areas, young average tree age, and space for up or midstream expansion. — Kenanga Research, Feb 12



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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2016, 08:16:59 AM »


财经  2016年02月15日
3月棕油零出口税 种植股异军突起

1
(吉隆坡15日讯)虽然近期棕油价格走高,但政府並未如市场预期般在3月开始徵收棕油出口税,而是继续维持原棕油出口的零税率。

由於厄尔尼诺效应开始显现,市场预期,东南亚市场的原棕油產量下滑的趋势將会持续,並有望带动棕油价格走高。在这预期中,原棕油价格年初至今已经上涨了5.9%,而离岸价格则上升12.8%。

大马3月份的棕油平均价格为每公吨2172.69令吉,政府规定当价格上涨至每公吨2250令吉以上,將开始徵收税务,税率从4.5%至8.5%不等。

由於原棕油价格低迷,政府自2015年5月份起,持续將出口税率维持在零水平。

根据《路透社》早前的预测显示,以30天的棕油现货平均价格计算,预计政府將在3月份开始征收出口税。

不过,政府宣佈保持零税率,但未解释所用的计算方式。

无论如何,棕油价格上涨的预期仍激励种植股的表现,今日多只种植股挤入上升榜,其中联合种植(UtdPlt,2089,主板种植股)表现最佳,闭市报25.52令吉,上涨52仙或2.08%,为今日上升榜第1名;其他涨幅显著的也包括,BLD种植(BLDPlt,5069,主板种植股)涨30仙至9.20令吉,是第4大上升股,还有吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股),上涨22仙或0.95%,至23.40令吉;及远东控股(FarEast,5029,主板种植股),上涨23仙或3.00%,至7.88令吉,分別是上升榜第10及第9名。另一家躋入上升榜的是云顶种植(GenP,2291,主板种植股),该股全天起18仙或1.68$至10.90令吉。

然而,棕油期货今日上午一度触及22个月新高后却隨著2月份上半个月疲弱的出口数据回软。

ITS的数据显示,由於主要进口国,中国、印度及欧洲的需求减少,2月首两州的棕油出口大跌16%。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2016, 11:35:45 AM »


Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 22 February 2016 | MYT 11:07 AM
CIMB Research maintains reduce on IOI Corp, ups target price to RM4.52






 
 

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Research has raised IOI Corp Bhd’s FY16-18 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 5% to reflect higher palm kernel prices and lower estates costs.

“Our SOP-based target price rises to RM4.52 as we accord a higher P/E of 22 times (versus 20 times) for its plantation division with the group’s reinstatement into the Shariah list. The stock remains a ‘reduce’ due to its rich valuation,” the research house said.

CIMB Research said IOI Corp recently lowered its fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output growth target to 1-3% due to the El Nino effect.

It projects crude palm oil (CPO) prices remaining firm and its oleo and specialty fats divisions to perform satisfactorily. It indicated that the refining business remains challenging and refineries margin has recently turned negative again.

“IOI Corp’s first half to Dec 31, 2015 core net profit (excluding forex translation loss) accounted for 64% of our full-year forecast and 58% of consensus estimates.

“We consider the results to be above expectations due to higher-than-expected plantation contributions and fair value gains on derivatives. Reported net profit was below due to forex translation losses of RM627mil in first half of FY15 on its foreign debts with the weaker ringgit. As expected, it declared an interim dividend of 3.5 sen,” CIMB Research said.

The research house said IOI Corp’s second quarter to Dec 31, 2015 core net profit rose 70% year-on-year due mainly to stronger plantation earnings and fair value gain on its derivative instruments.

Plantation earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose 14% with better results from its Indonesian plantations following the completion of a new mill, higher palm kernel prices and sales of inventories. These more than offset the lower CPO price achieved and FFB output in second quarter.

Resource-based manufacturing EBIT grew 236% due to fair value gains on derivative financial instruments of RM256.4mil. 

“We gather the derivatives gain relates to forward contracts it entered into as a hedge to protect the ringgit-denominated margin of its manufacturing margins. Excluding the derivatives gain, this division’s EBIT fell 50% year-on-year due to lower sales volume and lower margins from the oleochemical and refining sub-segments,” CIMB Research said.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2016, 07:25:07 AM »



财经  2016年02月22日
印尼捎来喜讯 种植股应声上涨

(吉隆坡22日讯)由于印尼国家石油公司的生物柴油承购量显著成长,市场预计这將推高棕油价格走势,带动吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)、PPB集团(PPB,4065,主板消费股)和联合种植(UTDPLT,2089,主板种植股)等种植股股价于週一(22日)早盘纷纷走高,但闭市则收窄涨幅。

印尼农作物基金局日前公佈,印尼国家石油公司Pertamina的生物柴油承购量,自去年9月的5万公斤,增至今年1月的23万公斤,符合当地政府推行的B20生物柴油计划。

联昌国际分析员因此预计,印尼当地生物柴油计划顺利进行,將收紧棕油库存量,进而推高棕油价格。

丰益大贏家

该分析员维持种植领域「中和」投资评级,並看好新加坡的丰益集团和第一资源是印尼生物柴油计划的最大受惠者。丰益集团也是PPB集团的联號公司,对后者的盈利贡献约达七成。

这项利好消息带动马股的种植股在早盘皆呈涨,惟大部份种植股在午盘交易收窄涨幅,纷纷跌出上升榜排名,除了联合马六甲(UMCCA,2593,主板种植股)凭著全天上涨14仙或2.32%,收报6.17令吉的佳绩,躋入上升榜第14名。

至于自呈交亮眼业绩,而大热走高的吉隆甲洞和峇都加湾(BKAWAN,1899,主板种植股)今日皆进行股息除权,並在週一早盘一度挤进上升榜5甲位置,隨后回吐涨幅,分別掛收24令吉和17.46令吉。

相比股息除权后的参阅价23.90令吉和17.56令吉,吉隆甲洞全天上升0.41%或10仙,峇都加湾则下跌10仙或0.56%,而后者也是全场第13大下跌股。

另外,PPB集团和联合种植闭市时的涨幅也有所减少,各上涨8仙或0.50%和12仙或0.48%,至16.04令吉和25.22令吉掛收。

针对Pertamina的生物柴油承购量,联昌国际投行分析员估计,该公司今年需买进554万公斤的生物柴油和柴油混合,才能达到印尼政府要求的柴油含有20%的生物柴油。

「根据我们的计算,该公司今年1月所承购的23万公斤生物柴油远低于政府目標,但优于去年同期的8万7313公斤。」

印尼政府2016年生物柴油使用率目標为554万公斤,而当地2015年生物柴油使用率自178万公斤,暴跌51%至86万3000公斤,归咎于津贴不足。

展望未来,该分析员指出,Pertamina分別和11家生物柴油供应家签署合约,以在去年11月至今年4月购买共180万公斤生物柴油,这代表著该公司已在去年11月至今年1月买进其中的59万公斤生物柴油。

「同时,我们也估计,生物柴油需求量將在未来3个月达121万公斤,即每个月需求量为40万3000公斤。」

儘管需求有望增加,棕油价格和原油价格之间不断拉大的差距,却引起市场担心生物柴油计划將面临资金不足的困境。

联昌国际投行分析员却认为,棕油基金足以支撑当地生物柴油计划。

该分析员预测,原油价格和印尼棕油价格分別维持在每桶33美元和现有水平,生物柴油津贴料企在每公吨324美元。

「假设去年和今年合计棕油基金为11亿5000万令吉中的90%都用以进行生物柴油计划,相信这可供应320万公斤的生物柴油,高于市场预测的250万至300万公斤,但却弱于政府的700万公斤目標。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #18 on: February 29, 2016, 08:14:26 PM »



Monday, 29 February 2016 | MYT 7:05 PM
FGV’s earnings for FY15 more than halved
BY M. HAFIDZ MAHPAR







 CPO price had dropped by 8% from RM2,410 per tonne in 2014 to RM2,210 per tonne in 2015, says Emir.
CPO price had dropped by 8% from RM2,410 per tonne in 2014 to RM2,210 per tonne in 2015, says Emir.
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s (FGV) profit attributable to its owners more than doubled year-on-year for the fourth quarter (Q4), but the group still ended up with a 64% drop in earnings for the full year ended Dec 31, 2015 (FY15).

Announcing its latest unaudited quarterly results to Bursa Malaysia, the agri-business giant said its earnings grew 157.8% to RM101.38mil in Q4 FY15 from a year earlier.

However, earnings for the 12-month period dipped 64% to RM117.12mil on 2.7% higher revenue of RM15.67bil.

FGV group president and chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah attributed the reduced profit mainly to lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices and volatility in the ringgit/US dollar exchange rate.

“CPO price had dropped by 8% from RM2,410 per tonne in 2014 to RM2,210 per tonne in 2015, while the US dollar had strengthened 20% against the ringgit.,” he said in a press statement.
 
“Our overall performance last year was influenced largely by the direction of global palm oil prices as the upstream segment contributes 75% of our revenue.”

FGV did not say in the results announcement why the Q4 profit improved significantly year-on-year.

The company announced a final dividend of 2 sen per share (4 sen in Q4 FY14), bringing the total dividend for FY15 to 4 sen compared with 10 sen in the preceding year.

FGV’s FY15 results were propped up partly by the sale of its loss-making oilseeds crushing and refining plant, Twin Rivers Technologies Enterprises De Transformation De Graines Oleagineuses Du Quebec Inc (TRT ETGO), in November last year to a Glencore unit for C$172.15mil (RM534.18mil).

This led to an improvement reported in the discontinued operations to a profit of RM74.64mil, compared with a loss of C$45.32mil (about RM141mil) in FY14, due to reversal of impairment loss of property, plant and equipment amounting of RM133.39mil.

The sugar segment was the year’s largest contributor to profit before zakat and taxation (PBZT), at RM399.8mil against RM372.96mil in 2014.

The world’s leading CPO producer said its palm upstream segment’s PBZT, meanwhile, fell by slightly more than half (54.7%) to RM349.24mil. As for the palm downstream business, it swung to a PBZT of RM9.12mil from a loss of RM14.32mil a year earlier.

The trading, marketing and logistics segment sank into a loss of RM93.56mil from a PBZT of RM92.19mil in FY14.

On the outlook for 2016, Emir said palm oil industry players were expected to continue to face tough times in 2016 due to uncertainty in CPO prices. FGV is forecasting CPO to trade between RM2,200 and RM2,400 per tonne this year.
 
“We remain committed to our transformation plan and to strengthening our performance during this testing period. We have aggressively continued our replanting exercise for the past four years, executed our Group wide cost optimisation (which has seen positive results since September) and expanded our downstream activities to minimise reliance on our upstream business” he said.

FGV shares fell 4 sen to close at RM1.53 on Monday, with 5.16 million shares changing hands

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #19 on: February 29, 2016, 08:16:12 PM »



FGV to buy 55% of Chinese edible oils firm
Posted on 29 February 2016 - 05:37am
Print
PETALING JAYA: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) proposes to acquire a 55% stake in Zhong Ling Nutril-Oil Holdings Ltd from Zhong Hai Investment Holdings Ltd and other vendors for RM976.25 million.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, FGV said it had entered into two conditional sale and purchase agreements with the vendors for the transfer of 26.4% and 28.6% equity interest in Zhong Ling for RM537.05 million and RM439.2 million respectively.

Based on the audited consolidated financial statements for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2013, the profit after tax and minority interest and net assets of Zhong Ling are about RM144.4 million and RM573.6 million respectively.

Zhong Ling is involved in the production of edible peanut and vegetable oil and wholesale of edible oil-related pre-packaged food, among others.

FGV said the purchase consideration is intended to be funded by internal cash and/or external borrowings.

It noted that the proposed acquisition is in line with its global strategic blueprint of increasing the downstream capabilities in destination markets.

“The proposed acquisition is expected to expand FGV’s oils and fats capabilities in China, effectively managing FGV’s global products flow,” it said.

Besides that, FGV is also expected to benefit from future growth in sales and distribution networks, particularly coming from Zhong Ling’s newly established operations in the province of Jiangsu
Report to moderator     175.136.115.111

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2016, 03:06:28 PM »



Palm oil falls to one-month low on stronger ringgit, weak demand
By Reuters / Reuters   | March 2, 2016 : 2:33 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (March 2): Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in a month in early trade on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger ringgit and weak export demand.

The palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 1.1% at 2,507 ringgit (US$602) per tonne at the midday break. The contract earlier hit an intraday low of 2,506 ringgit, its weakest since Feb 2.

Traded volume stood at 10,078 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The dollar is weaker and demand is still slow," said a trader from a brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur.

A weaker dollar on Wednesday pushed the ringgit to 4.1600, up 0.1% against the greenback around noon. A stronger ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in, makes the tropical oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Demand for Malaysian palm oil products fell 17-18% for the full month of February, compared with the previous month, according to export data from cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS).

Malaysian shipments for palm oil have been slowing in recent weeks, due to a fall in consumer demand from top palm importers China and India.

Palm oil is expected to drop to 2,481 ringgit per tonne, as it has cleared support at 2,519 ringgit, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.
 
In competing vegetable oil markets, the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.2%, while the Chicago soyoil contract edged up 0.1%

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2016, 06:10:12 PM »



RED ALERT : PALM OIL STOCKPILES FALLING, PRICES COULD GO UP
Our Reporter | March 7, 2016
up_up_and_away_title
From : Anuradha Raghu

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia probably fell to an 11-month low in February as a dry spell triggered by the strongest El Nino in almost two decades hurt the crop in the world’s second-largest producer.

Stockpiles slid 8.7 percent to 2.11 million metric tons from a month earlier, the smallest since March 2015, according to the median of 8 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of planters, traders and analysts. Output declined 3.5 percent to 1.09 million tons, falling for a fourth month to the lowest since January 2011. Exports fell 14 percent to 1.1 million tons, the survey showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data by March 10.

Inventories are set to shrink further as the impact of the El Nino exacerbates the decline in production, boosting prices, Singapore-based commodity trader Olam International Ltd. said last week. Futures surged to a 21-month high in February and have since lost some steam as a stronger ringgit curbs demand from buyers. Output in Southeast Asia may experience the worst impact since the 1997-1998 El Nino, according to LMC International Ltd. Chairman James Fry.

 “Based on historical trends, demand should be soft in the short term,” said Voon Yee Ping, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. “But production should be soft toward April and stockpiles should continue to decline in the next few months.”
Supply Squeeze
Futures for May delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives rose as much as 1.4 percent, the biggest daily gain for a most-active contract since Feb. 12, before trading 1.3 percent higher at 2,540 ringgit ($621) a ton by the midday break in Kuala Lumpur. Prices are up 2.2 percent this year.

“Palm oil prices are facing a perfect storm of the drought, which will hit output, and the new demand of biodiesel from Indonesia,” Fry said in an interview on Monday in Kuala Lumpur. Indonesia may blend an average of 140,000 tons and 150,000 tons of biodiesel a month this year, he said.

Olam’s Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese said on Feb. 29 that about 1.5 million to 2 million tons of palm oil production will be lost to El Nino-induced dry weather. Malaysian plantation consultant Ganling Sdn. warns that the supply disruptions are “far from over,” with futures seen trading between 2,300-2,800 ringgit in 2016. (Bloomberg)

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #22 on: March 09, 2016, 12:17:17 PM »



Wednesday, 9 March 2016
Players bullish on palm oil
BY DANIEL KHOOandTOH KAR INN







 Opening day: Uggah, Bursa CEO Datuk Seri Tajuddin Atan (centre) and chairman Amirsham A Aziz (right) at the launch of the Palm & Lauric Oils Conference 2016
Opening day: Uggah, Bursa CEO Datuk Seri Tajuddin Atan (centre) and chairman Amirsham A Aziz (right) at the launch of the Palm & Lauric Oils Conference 2016
 
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Contract termination a setback for Bumi Armada
Ringgit, Singapore dollar, won and yuan edge lower
KUALA LUMPUR: Industry players are turning bullish on crude palm oil (CPO) prices, believing that demand for the commodity will rise over the next one year.

Their view stems from the fact that the drought which had hit Indonesia, which is the world’s biggest palm oil producer, will affect supplies moving forward.

“Talking about supply demand dynamics, on the supply side, we see that Indonesia has had a slowdown in the first couple of months (of the year) due to the consequences of the severe drought in 2015,” United Plantations Bhd vice-chairman and chief executive director Datuk Carl Bek-Nielsen said at a panel session held during Palm Oil Conference 2016: Managing Market Uncertainties yesterday.

“Combined with that is the net annual growth in production or area of cultivation for oil palm, which is slowing down because many of the big multinational companies which have signed up to the sustainability pledges are simply not able to proceed as they had done in the past. This will have a cumulative effect that we will see more of in the future unless it is addressed,” Bek-Nielsen added.



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On the demand side, Bek-Nielsen said that the outlook was fundamentally strong as palm oil was a “cardinal factor” to meet the calorie intake of the growing world population, especially the middle classes

“It is probably seen as one of the bright ray of light shining forth in this industry. If you look at the world’s middle class, it is around 1.9 billion people now. Within the next 25-30 years, it is projected to reach 4.9 billion people. This will drive demand for edible oils,” he said.

“The world’s middle-class consumption of calories is around 3,000 calories per person per day, compared with the poor and developing countries, which is around 2,200 to 2,400 calories per person per day. We are talking about a 30% increase in daily caloric intake per person per day over a longer term, if this comes true,” he added.

Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s (FGV) group president and CEO Datuk Emir Mavani Abdullah said that the company was trying its best to manage palm oil in a more sustainable way. “Palm is the most productive oil in the world today. On the demand side, we are bullish as it is rising and I believe 2016 will be a very good year for palm oil moving forward,” Emir said at the same panel.

A report by Bloomberg quoted Emir as saying that prices could trade between RM2,500 and RM2,600 until the second quarter.

Inventories in Malaysia may fall to as low as 1.7 million tonnes in June, Emir said.

When asked at the same panel on what would be the bullish factors for palm oil prices this year, Dr Jiang Lili, deputy general manager of China-based Jiusan Oils & Grains Industries Group Co Ltd said that these factors would come from “supply issues and changing weather conditions”.

At a separate presentation of his paper on the Global Biodiesel Outlook for 2016, Carotino Sdn Bhd executive director U.R. Unnithan said that a move to adopt a higher blend of palm oil into biodiesel could help manage palm oil stocks.

“By moving from B7 to B20, the strategy is to reduce palm oil stocks by 1.3 million tonnes year-on-year, and this could increase the CPO price by RM1,560 per tonne,” Unnithan said.

“The forecast gross domestic product impact of B10 will be RM7.8bil, while B20 will be RM31.2bil, only on account of the CPO price rise alone. This would translate into an additional tax revenue of RM1.95bil at B10 and RM7.8bil at B20,” he added.

Meanwhile, on another matter, Bek-Nielsen said that one of the main challenges that the industry was facing today was a labour shortage due to the freeze on the recruitment of foreign workers.

“If this is not resolved for the Malaysian plantation industry, in the very near future, we may end up having a very serious situation in our hands. When the peak (production) arrives this year, plantation companies will have losses taking place in the field,” he said.

He also said that plantation companies were actually paying more than the required minimum wage to workers through the provision of benefits such as free housing, electricity, water and medical.

“Whether in Indonesia or Malaysia, there has been a severe increase in labour costs over the last few years. All these extra spin-offs are some things that people don’t really recognise and appreciate, but they should,” he said.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2016, 04:27:03 PM »



Palm oil prices seen hitting RM3,000 as El Nino curbs output - analyst Mistry
By Reuters / Reuters   | March 9, 2016 : 4:08 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (March 9): Malaysian palm oil futures will climb nearly 20% to around RM3,000 a tonne as dry conditions brought by the El Nino weather pattern curb output in major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, said top industry analyst Dorab Mistry.

Benchmark Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange futures climbed almost 5% in February on lower production, but gains have been capped by declining demand from major importers. They stood around RM2,540 (US$620) this week.

Palm oil prices will keep climbing until they hit a level that stifles demand from price-sensitive importers such as India, Mistry told an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.

"I believe we must now cast aside all ideas of CPO futures at RM2,600 or RM2,700," he said, referring to crude palm oil.

"We have to take prices to levels where demand does not expand and is made to shrink somewhat in price-sensitive markets like India. That will mean ... futures trading with a 3 rather than a 2."

Mistry, Singapore-based director with Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, did not give a timeframe for this to happen.

He said global palm oil production is forecast to decline by almost 3 million tonnes in the year to Sept 16 due to dry weather experienced by plantations late last year and in recent months across Indonesia and Malaysia. The two nations account for 90% of the world's palm oil output.

Malaysian palm production is expected to drop by 1.5 million tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes.

"Data on Indonesia is much more difficult to obtain, examine and extrapolate. The severest effect of the El Nino has also been limited to Southern Sumatra and to parts of Kalimantan," he said.

"Therefore, at this stage, I am only reducing my estimate of Indonesian production by 1.2 million tonnes."

The current El Nino, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that typically leads to scorching weather across Asia has been easing. But it has already hit palm plantations in Southeast Asia.

Earlier in the day, another leading edible oil industry analyst, Thomas Mielke, said he expected prices to climb to around RM2,700–RM3,000 a tonne by June.

Meanwhile, analyst James Fry said they would rise to RM2,750 per tonne by June on a Brent crude oil forecast of US$35 a barrel, and hit RM2,900 if oil reached US$40. Brent stood just below US$40 on Wednesday.

A Reuters poll last week showed Malaysia's February palm oil production falling 5% from the month before to 1.07 million tonnes, its lowest output levels since January 2011.

The lower palm oil production cycle is likely to run until June, Mistry said.

"Consumers may only be able to heave a sigh of relief from July," he said. "Replenishment of stocks may take a bit longer — possibly until September 2016."

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2016, 09:17:20 AM »



THIS OIL HAS LEGS, BUT HER NAME IS NOT CRUDE.
Our Reporter | March 10, 2016
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Kuala Lumpur: Yes, we believe this oil has legs and the powerbrokers in this oil, while they may not appear often in CNN, their reputation is a notch or two higher than OPEC.
This oil, is also found at home and her name is palm oil. With the el nino cutting down output, the situation for palm oil is the opposite from crude oil.
While crude is over producing to tune of 2 million barrels a day, demand for Palm Oil is exceeding output.
Output,in the top two producers namely Indonesia and Malaysia are under pressure due to change of weather pattern.
Last year Palm Oil was trading at between RM2,000 and RM2,000 a tonne. This year prices are about RM2,500 a tonne.
The prime suspects that will giddy up soon are Sime Darby, KL Kepong and IOI Corp.
Amongst them IOI is seen as the “pure”oil palm company. It is also the cheapest in absolute value

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2016, 03:51:18 PM »



进口量少不影响价格波动 法征税无损大马棕油业
财经新闻 财经  2016-03-19 11:04

 


(吉隆坡18日讯)法国国会昨日通过向进口棕油额外征税每公吨90欧元(约413.19令吉),分析员认为,这不会显著影响棕油价和我国业者净利表现,除非其他国家也效仿法国征收附加税。法国会通过渐进式征税,以缓和对市场的影响。
该国将在明年向每公吨进口棕油征收30欧元(约137.73令吉),每年增加20欧元(约91.82令吉),到2020年达90欧元,而非一开始就征收90欧元。
同时,这也显著低于1月初步提出的300欧元(约1377.30令吉),但仍是目前征收的104欧元(约477.46令吉),高出接近一倍,引起大马生产商的不满。
根据最新调整的制度,假设生产商可以证明种植棕油不破坏环境永续发展,就可豁免缴交该项附加税。
该国政府可能会在5月或6月,于上议院评估该项措施。
JF Apex证券分析员向《南洋商报》表示,对我国种植领域的影响不大,因为大马至法国棕油出口量很少。
“这项最新发展不会显著改变原棕油价格的走势。”
根据大马棕油局数据,2015年大马仅出口1万1156公吨的棕油至法国,或占出口量1745万公吨少于0.1%比重。
目前,最大棕油出口市场是印度和中国。
然而,若其他国家跟随法国,也对棕油征收附加税,那就会冲击棕油市场和我国业者的净利表现,这是市场目前最关切的问题。
除了法国,俄罗斯也在考虑向棕油征收进口税。
MIDF研究分析员表示,法国征收附加税不会影响棕油价格,除了出口数量不大,征收附加税的数额也比原先建议的300欧元低,加上若可达到环境永续发展标准,生产商就可豁免缴交附加税。
违反世贸组织条例 MPOC促解除征税
大马棕油协会(MPOC)今日发文告,抨击法国国会通过向发展中国家额外征收原棕油进口税的议案。
该协会总执行长丹斯里尤索峇西农指:“该项投票违反所有依据,并支持保护贸易主义,并不公平对待对发展中国家棕油进口。”
他说,这“差别”税的建议明显违反了世界贸易组织(WTO)和欧盟的条例。
他表示,征税90欧元是不公正和不适合的比例,因为众议院议员提出的经济和环境论点显然是错误的。
“我们要求法国总统奥朗德和外交部长埃洛(Jean-Marc Ayrault)停止该项措施。”
他补充,埃洛在2013年答应大马,不会对棕油征税,他对大马30万名小园主承诺不会以新税制损害这些农民的利益。
“我们希望他能够遵守这个承诺。”
埃尔尼诺气候升温 棕油库存料再趋低
埃尔尼诺(El Nino)气候问题影响生产商的产量和进一步拉低棕油库存,有助推高原棕油价格,生产商有望自2011年以来取得更高盈利。
MIDF研究分析员预计,库存水平将会在3月跌至202万公吨,且在次季减少至接近150万公吨的关键水平。
“在棕油库存减少至关键水平的期间,我们预计,原棕油结和大豆油的差价将会收窄,相信棕油价有望在次季达到每公吨3000令吉。”
因此,该分析员对种植领域仍抱着正面看法。
此外,大华继显研究分析员则表示,在2月低进口量之后,印度和中国很可能会增添棕油供应,所以将进一步减少库存量。同时,6月开始的斋戒月,将有助推高需求。
所有正面因素显示,接下来是东南亚棕油生产商赚取更高盈利的好时机。
在过去4年,基于棕油价格下跌接近22%,导致生产商的累积盈利减少。
控制成本挑战大
根据《路透社》预测,12家最大型的种植公司,包括IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和金光农业资源(Golden Agri-Resources),盈利料将在今年增长20%。
不过,目前最大挑战是,业者如何在面对产量减少和大马4月开始征收5%的原棕油出口税时控制成本。
报道:姚思敏

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2016, 08:55:46 AM »



MALAYSIA CLAIMS FRANCE FOREIGN MINISTER BROKE HIS PROMISE. DEMANDS RETALIATION
Our Reporter | March 22, 2016
analysis-price-boom-puts-palm-oil-emerging-markets-radar
Dr Yusof Basiron, the Chief Executive of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council has strongly condemned France’s move to impose a tax on palm oil used in food from 2017. French lawmakers agreed to introduce the new tax gradually, starting at €30 (£23.40, $30) in 2017 and rising by €20 per year to €90 in 2020.
The new tax adds to an existing tax of €104 per tonne. The French government backs the tax, as part of the Biodiversity Bill, but it still needs to be reviewed in the upper house, which is likely to take place in May or June. The additional tax had been sharply reduced from the initial figure of €300 and now excludes oils produced in a sustainable way.
The move has been described as discriminatory by both Malaysia and Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producing countries. Both countries have vowed to raise the issue at the World Trade Organization later this month.
Dr Yusof Basiron CEO of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council strongly defends the small farmers.Twitter
In a statement, Yusof said: “The vote in the National Assembly runs counter to all evidence, and instead supports a protectionist, partisan agenda that discriminates against palm oil from the developing world. The ‘differential’ tax proposal is a clear violation of both WTO and EU rules.”
He continued: “The €90 tax is both discriminatory and disproportionate. The economic arguments put forward by MPs have been clearly shown to be false. It is extremely disappointing that French MPs have chosen protectionism over evidence-based policy.”
The council called on French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault to “stop this tax”. It said Ayrault had promised in 2013 that he would not tax palm oil. “He promised to the 300,000 small farmers in Malaysia that France would not harm them with a new tax. We expect this promise to be kept,” it added.
Yusof however has been quite scathing in his tweets. He said: “Time to think of retaliation.” He did not elaborate.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #27 on: March 24, 2016, 08:58:40 AM »



PALM OIL PRICES TO RISE TO RM2,750
Our Reporter | March 24, 2016
palmoil
KUALA LUMPUR – Palm oil prices, which have rallied to a two-year high, may edge up as soaring temperatures across the world’s top-producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia spark cement expectation of lower output.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department has predicted that the warm and dry weather in large swaths of the country will likely persist until end of March. That will hurt oil palm production and help lift prices by up to 10% from current levels within the next few months, analysts say.

Crude palm oil prices have gained more than 8% year-to-date even as demand outlook remains weak. The benchmark palm oil futures contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped 1.1% to 2,682 ringgit on Wednesday after racking up 5.5% gains so far this month.

“Prices will test the 2600 ringgit-2700 ringgit range within the first six month this year,” said Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd analyst David Ng, who predicts that palm oil futures could peak towards 2750 ringgit by June. “Prices may decline when production cycle turns higher and normalize towards 2400 ringgit – 2500 ringgit range July onwards.”

Global temperatures climbed to new all-time high in February, shattering 137 years of record-keeping, according to the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration data on Tuesday. Scientists largely blame the El Nino weather phenomenon for the warmest month on record.

El Nino refers to the recurring warming of the Pacific Ocean that causes a shift of moist winds away from their more typical patterns and results in less rain. This year, however, agriculture activities have been disrupted by what has been called the most powerful El Nino in a generation.

The unusually dry weather shrivels oil palm trees, hurting yields

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2016, 09:44:47 AM »



MIDF Research downgrades IOI Corp to Neutral, cuts target to RM4.82
By theedgemarkets.com / theedgemarkets.com   | March 30, 2016 : 9:06 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (March 30): MIDF Research has downgraded IOI Corporation Bhd to “Neutral” with a lower target price of RM4.82 (from RM5.55) after IOI Corp was suspended from the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) for the entire palm oil production.

In a note today, the research house said the negative news had surprised it.

“Earnings downside risk of around 5% annually but we maintain our earnings forecast for now pending  further clarity from the management

“Downgrade to Neutral with lower target price of RM4.82 based on lower forward PE of 23.1x,” it said

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2016, 09:46:42 AM »
OH no!!!! TIME TO BUY PALM PALM PALM!!!! Means SUPER DUPER BULL IS HERE!!!!! :clap:
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2016, 11:38:12 AM »
 :D :D :D...........cehhhhHHHh!!!..........born loser copycat-king always flopp until watery **** ****!!!  :P..........self khayalan panlai, pro add-vice,usd 1 to above 5 is fact n sexfigure ....,3.88 is auncles aunties  always right always  saidprediction!!! :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2016, 10:05:46 AM »



Global food giants drop Malaysian palm oil firm over bad environmental practices
Friday April 8, 2016
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Unilever, Mars, and Kellog's have all dropped IOI as their palm oil supplier after the firm was suspended from the RSPO involving NGOs due to non compliance of rules. ― Reuters pic
Unilever, Mars, and Kellog's have all dropped IOI as their palm oil supplier after the firm was suspended from the RSPO involving NGOs due to non compliance of rules. ― Reuters pic
KUALA LUMPUR, April 8 ― Three major food companies have dropped their deals with Malaysian palm oil company IOI due to deforestation in the latter's plantations in Indonesia.

According to Singapore’s Straits Times today, Unilever, Mars, and Kellog's have all dropped IOI as their palm oil supplier after the firm was suspended from the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) involving NGOs due to non compliance of rules.

The suspension came about after a year-long investigation into complaints lodged against IOI regarding deforestation in its plantations in West Kalimantan.

Unilever owns 400 brands, including Dove soap, Mars makes M&M's, while Kellog's is popular for its Kellog's Corn Flakes.

The decision by the three firms is expected to hurt IOI's finances as palm oil revenue contributed to 80 per cent of the firm's income in 2014, the report said.

IOI group CEO Lee Yeow Chor reportedly said that the RSPO suspension was a “serious matter” that presented new challenges, but did not comment on how the three global food and consumer companies' decisions will affect IOI's businesses.

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/major-food-firms-drop-malaysian-oil-palm-firm-over-bad-environmental-practi#sthash.xD6OtkNN.dpuf

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2016, 02:26:32 PM »



KILLER BEETLE EYES PALM OIL FOR DINNER
Our Reporter | April 11, 2016
main_rq_110416_p004b_raqib_1
KUALA LUMPUR: A species of beetle illegally brought in across the Thai-Malaysian border has been ravaging the nation’s palm trees, and – if left unchecked – can potentially decimate the palm oil industry within just 20 years.
The red palm weevil, or Rhynchophorus ferrugineus, is a species of beetle that excavates holes in the trunk of palm trees, eventually killing the plant. It infests coconut palms, date palms and oil palms.
According to the Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) Plant Biosecurity Division, so far a whopping 465ha of coconut trees are gone, mainly in Terengganu and Kedah.
There are 85,799ha of coconut palms in Malaysia. Additionally, 335 date palms have been eaten.
So far, said department head Faridah Aini Muhammad, no commercial plantations had been affected, but the weevil’s spread was a major cause for concern.
“What worries us is that if these beetles do not have access to their main source of food in date palms, they will move to oil palm trees.
“There have been reports which are still unconfirmed as yet, but it is a very real concern,” she said, adding that research was currently ongoing in several universities across the country.
“Research at UKM has shown that even without being forced, the weevil will go to the palm oil fruits and breed inside the tree itself.”
The red palm weevil first entered the country when seedlings and date palms were illegally brought in across the border with the beetle in the trunks.
Under Malaysia’s Plant Quaran­tine Act, the import of any palms except for research purposes is prohibited.
So far, the weevil can be found in five states – Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Penang and Terengganu – with the latter being the worst-hit.

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #33 on: April 12, 2016, 07:27:06 AM »



财经  2016年04月11日
3月棕油库存减13% 出口涨23%高于预期

3月棕油库存减13% 出口涨23%高于预期

(吉隆坡11日讯)由于出口至印度和中国的棕油数量激增,世界第2大棕油生產国--大马3月份的棕油库存减少13.1%,並跌破200万公吨水平,是两年以来的最大跌幅。

根据大马棕油局(MPOB)今日公佈的数据显示,库存按月下跌13.1%,至189万公吨;2月份棕油库存为217万公吨。这是自2014年2月以来的最大跌幅,也是2015年3月以来最低水平。

同时,3月份的原棕油產量则提高17%,至122万公吨,为5个月来首次增长;同期的棕油出口大涨22.9%,至133万公吨,高于《彭博社》预测的124万公吨,协助抵消產量上涨对库存造成的压力。

中印需求跃升

大马和印尼的棕油產量佔全球棕油供应90%,市场担忧厄尔尼诺造成的乾旱天气,將遏制棕油產量,从而推高3月份棕油价格至2年新高水平。

Godrej国际董事多拉米斯里(Dorab Mistry)预测,天气变化料导致大马棕油產量持续减少,这情况將延续至9月份,新加坡11日讯│国际信贷评级机构穆迪(Moody's)的一项调查显示,令吉在未来12个月將会持稳,在4至4.20令吉兑1美元水平盘整。

同时,也有超过58%的受访者相信,大马国內生產总值(GDP)將从2015年5%成长,放缓至4至4.5%。

穆迪副总裁及资深分析员国斯在穆迪出版的「InsideASEAN」大马篇报告中指出,有关调查符合穆迪早前预期,大马经济成长在今年將达到4.4%的预测。儘管如此,他认为,大马经济仍存在下行风险。

「大马经济主要依赖贸易,进出口数据佔国內经济生產总值的131%,因此很容易受到全球需求放缓以及原產品价格疲软的衝击。」国斯补充说,这將导致大马国內的投资活动放慢,进而增加出口及政府收入的压力。

同时,在大马家庭债务高企,佔GDP89.1%的情况下,国內私人消费成长將受到限制,进而也將导致国內需求放缓。

另一方面,据穆迪调查显示,绝大多数的受访者表示,令吉匯率近期有明显的改善,並相信令吉兑美元在未来12个月將保持稳定。

该项调查共有高达53%的受访者,预计令吉兑美元在未来1年將在4令吉至4.20令吉的区间盘整。而仅有1/3的受访者认为,令吉兑美元將温和升值,至1美元兑3令吉到4令吉之间。

穆迪表示,大马贸易盈余及外匯储备增加,都是支撑令吉的基本因素。即使令吉持续疲软又或者是重新陷入贬值,大马主权及银行的外匯风险依然在可管理的范围。此外,穆迪点出,一旦令吉贬值,企业以及银行领域的债务將免去欠债数额上涨的压力。

截至2015年底,大马政府发行以外匯为主的债券佔政府债务的3.4%。而大马银行的外匯净头寸佔整个资本水平的1至5%。当中多数的外匯贷款批给出口商,因此也平衡令吉波动的风险。

並可能刺激棕油价格进一步提高至每公吨3000令吉。

此外,LT国际期货私人有限公司交易主管詹德兰向《彭博社》表示,3月份出口良好,超出市场预期。而出口高涨將可保持库存在较低水平。数据显示,棕油库存连续4个月下滑。

中国和印度为棕油的最大买家,3月份出口至这两个地区的棕油,按月分別跃升167%和85%。

期货合约走低

虽然今日出炉的数据亮眼,但由於令吉持续走强,吉隆坡棕油期货合约週一早盘走低,半天交易报每公吨2677令吉,从3月29日触及的2年新高滑落4.2%。截至傍晚5时,大马交易所內的6月份棕油期货合约收报每公吨2668令吉。

詹德兰指出,棕油价格或许需要进一步下滑,让它与其竞爭对手大豆油价格的折价扩大,才能够在本月吸引更多买盘。而他认为,一些买家可能已经为6月份到来的开斋节提早囤货。

他也表示,「目前价格已开始调整,並有进一步调整的可能性。因为市场已经为厄尔尼诺天气可能推高价格预先作好准备,因此消费者已经完成节庆前的囤货。」

根据货柜调查机构Intertek今日出炉的数据,4月份首10天的棕油出口,按月下滑2%,至32万零990公吨。

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #34 on: April 12, 2016, 07:31:58 AM »



PublicInvest keeps ‘neutral’ call on IOI Corp for now
Posted on 10 April 2016 - 09:33pm
Last updated on 11 April 2016 - 11:49am
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PETALING JAYA: PublicInvest Research has maintained its neutral call on IOI Corp Bhd as the plantation firm faces possible supply contract termination from Unilever, Mars Inc and Kellogg’s Co due to the suspension of its Roundable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification this month.

“We maintain our neutral call on IOI Corp with an unchanged target price of RM4.86 for now as it is premature to factor in any impact from this issue,” the research house said.

Last week, Unilever has announced that it is now in the process of disengaging with IOI Corp and has a set a time-bound plan to do this over the next three months as the RSPO suspension has breached Unilever’s Sustainable Palm Oil Policy.

Following that, it was also reported that US’s food and confectionery producers, Mars Inc and Kellogg’s Co are in the process of terminating supply contracts with IOI Corp’s subsidiary, IOI Loders Croklaan.

According to IOI Corp, the RSPO suspension will affect its Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO) premium earned, which is less than 0.5% of its revenue. This translates to RM60 million or about 4% of PublicInvest’s FY17 earnings forecasts.

As at FY15, upstream plantation earnings made up 66% of the group’s earnings while downstream contributed the remaining 34%.

“Though it might affect about 4% of our full-year earnings forecast, we think that the losses could be mitigated by the positive CPO price outlook. Nevertheless, we remain concerned over other unquantifiable losses including reputational risk and financial risk in the future as the group has extensive dealings with multi-national companies,” explained PublicInvest.

IOI Corp’s RSPO certification for its entire group’s oil palm production would be suspended from April 4 following complaints by NGOs of violation of the RSPO criteria against the plantation estates of IOI Corp’s Indonesian subsidiaries.

The suspension will last until the submitted action plan is accepted and the peer reviews of the high conservation value assessments have been performed.

IOI Corp’s RSPO membership was first suspended in April 2011 due to allegations by several NGOs and the local community regarding its plantations in Sarawak. It took them nearly two years to lift the suspension in 2013

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2016, 08:24:40 AM »



超级埃尔尼诺延烧至10月 棕油次季库存还会跌
财经新闻 财经  2016-04-13 13:51

 

1 of 2
(吉隆坡12日讯)MIDF研究指出,目前的棕油库存数据仅反映出一半的“超级埃尔尼诺(El Nino)影响”,恐会延续至10月,次季库存或进一步跌至150万公吨。
我国3月的原棕油库存报189万公吨,低于预期,主要因为出口表现比想象中强。
分析员指出,如今的“超级埃尔尼诺影响”已在短短4个月内,清空102万公吨的库存。库存已是连续4个月走跌,更跌破了200万公吨的心理水平。
去年11月时,库存乃企于291万公吨,如今已减少了35%,至189万公吨。
然而,分析员认为,原棕油产量所面临最糟糕的情况还未过去,因估计“超级埃尔尼诺影响”在接下来的7个月还会持续。
依照库存下滑的速度来看,大众投行分析员估计,次季的库存有可能进一步跌至150万公吨,未来3个月的跌幅料介于15至30%。
拉尼娜气候或再现
分析员表示,“超级埃尔尼诺影响”已导致3月产量低于过去5年的平均水平。尽管“超级埃尔尼诺”预计会走弱,但目前只看到一半的损害力。
现阶段的“超级埃尔尼诺影响”仍轻微,相信树压现象会持续至10月。
分析员正面看待种植领域,首选吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)。主要看好后者的净利可从高原棕油价格中受惠、首季按年增长13%的净利、以及该股作为符合回教教义兼棕油永续发展圆桌会议(RSPO)会籍的罕有大资本股地位。
美国国家海洋和大气管理局报告称,拉尼娜(La Nina)将有50%的机率,会在圣诞节前取代埃尔尼诺。
这将对东南亚国家带来更湿润的气候,对美国南部则带来干旱气候,有可能会长达2年或以上。
一贯的拉尼娜现象将严重影响美国的大豆产量,进一步推高大豆和原棕油价格。
棕油价上看3000元
我国棕油库存跌至去年4月以来的新低,推动3月份的原棕油价格持续向好,一度攀涨18%,至每公吨2676令吉。
分析员因此相信,原棕油价格在6月杪时有望激增至每公吨3000令吉。
分析员正面看待原棕油前景,上半年价格料平均企于每公吨2700令吉,且有可能触及2800令吉。
同时,看好云顶种植(GENP,2291,主板种植股)、大安(TAANN,5012,主板工业产品股)、陈顺风(TSH,9059,主板种植股)和嘉隆发展(TDM,2054,主板种植股)。

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #36 on: April 19, 2016, 08:58:49 AM »



RSPO会籍暂停市值跌9% IOI今年净利料减5%
财经新闻 财经  2016-04-17 10:47

 


(吉隆坡16日讯)马银行投行分析员指出,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)市值在过去2周萎缩9%,相信已反映出棕油永续发展圆桌会议(RSPO)会籍遭到暂停的负面消息。
根据马银行投行报告,IOI集团是生产规模庞大的永续棕油认证(CSPO)生产商,该公司在国内拥有15万8767公顷的受认证土地,估计每年的CSPO产量达75万公吨。
这些产量占IOI集团上财年原棕油产量的96%,且占全球CSPO产量的6%。
该行分析员表示,公司的RSPO会籍将从今日开始暂停,而根据公司早前文告,会籍遭到暂停,将导致公司无法从原棕油销售中,赚取CSPO的溢价。
“IOI集团当时指出,CSPO溢价收入不及营业额的0.5%比例,据此比例,估计这相等于5800万令吉CSPO营业额,从而等于4400万令吉净利或上财年的5%核心净利。”
在此情况下,分析员对IOI集团展开了盈利敏感度分析,而结果显示,CSPO溢价造成每年流失的4400万令吉净利。
这将拖累今年净利减少5%,同时,明后财年净利也将萎缩4%。
分析员续称,盈利敏感度分析也显示,下游业务销售每下滑10%,就会导致IOI集团每年净利,再走低4%。
“合计CSPO溢价和下游营业额可能下跌10%至50%的冲击,IOI集团今年至后年净利,可能下滑8%至25%。”
不过,分析员认为,相信RSPO会籍暂停所带来的盈利冲击,将滞后一个季度才显现出来,因为IOI集团还有部分CSPO库存在手。
棕油价走高缓和影响
分析员指出,在等待IOI集团公布有关资讯的当儿,该行预测公司的RSPO会籍将被暂停6至12个月,且公司需要至少3个月时间,才能全面解决相关投诉。
“若暂停会籍的时间为半年,那么IOI集团股价在上月21日至上周五(1日)期间下跌了9%,就已经反映出损失CSPO溢价和下游业务销售减少30%的负面因素。”
不过,如果暂停会籍时间长达一年,近期股价走低9%,仅反映出下游业务销售萎缩15%和损失CSPO溢价的因素。
分析员点出,由于上游业务是公司主要的税前盈利来源,因此,如今随着原棕油价格走高,预料有助缓冲这方面的冲击。
“原棕油平均售价每攀升10%,就能带动IOI集团2017财年每股净利,走高1.48亿令吉或13.9%。”

Offline ongchef

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #37 on: April 21, 2016, 08:20:28 AM »
3888 per ton

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2016, 02:26:58 PM »



P&P STOCKS , GETS A HELPING HAND FROM MOTHER NATURE
Our Reporter | April 25, 2016
images
Kuala Lumpur : Poultry and Palm Oil (P&P) stocks are increasingly looking like the counters to keep a close eye on, thanks to mother nature’s unpredictable weather patterns.

MyStock 118  was told that poultry production has taken a hearing due to the heatwave hitting Malaysia currently and with that both egg and chicken prices are expected to go up soon.

Egg production is down by as much as ten per cent,  and this is clearly going to drive prices up because demand for those eggs are heating up in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Over the weekend, the Government did not discount the possibility  of importing chicken to ensure that any shortages are matched.

As for Palm Oil, what we know as facts are that production is down by 18 per cent in March, and that in May,  the commodity will for the first time since 2012, attempt to trade at RM3,000 per metric  tonne and beyond.

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #39 on: April 27, 2016, 08:30:31 AM »



Fitch: CPO prices to rebound this year
Posted on 27 April 2016 - 05:39am
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are set to rebound this year after rising in February and March, snapping straight months of decline since last April, said Fitch Ratings.

The rebound will come as global demand stabilises for the cheapest, most versatile vegetable oil, and the sustained El Nino effect lowers output in Indonesia and Malaysia, which accounts for a combined 86% of total global production.

In a statement yesterday, Fitch said it believes that the average price in 2016 may top the average 2015 price of US$623 (RM2,442) a tonne if the current trend persists.

“CPO and crude oil prices have shown high positive correlation historically due to CPO’s use as a biodiesel feedstock.

“The current low crude oil prices may adversely affect biodiesel demand globally and temper CPO’s price rise in 2016,” said the rating agency.

Fitch said US soybean plantings and exports are projected to fall from 2016 to 2020 due to persistently low rices. – Bernama

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #40 on: May 22, 2016, 11:20:39 AM »



产量复苏快 需求反放缓 棕油7月后恐跌至2500元
财经新闻 财经  2016-05-21 14:25

 


(吉隆坡20日讯)由於原棕油产量受埃尔尼诺(El NIno)冲击後的复苏步伐比预期快,加上市场需求低迷,分析员估计,原棕油價格在7月後将下跌至2500令吉,不过,高企的大豆油價格将会支撑原棕油價格。
印度戈德瑞国际有限公司(Godrej International)知名油籽分析员米斯里,在印度海得拉巴的会议上,如是指出。
他估计,原棕油期货从目前至7月将处於2600令吉至2800令吉之间的價位交易。
“由於产量强劲复苏和库存囤积,原棕油價格在7月後,恐会进一步下跌至每公吨2500令吉,不过,我认为原棕油在大豆油價格走高的支撑下,不会再往下跌。”
作为世界第二大棕油生产国的大马,米斯里预估,今年的原棕油产量料会走跌至1840萬至1880萬公吨之间。
“由於原棕油产量比预期高,因此,将全球原棕油产量今年或减少300萬公吨的预估,下调至250萬公吨,分别为大马和印尼各别减少150萬公吨和100萬公吨。”
他点出,由於主要原棕油购买国的需求放缓,加上原油價格走跌,推高生物柴油补贴,是造成原棕油需求承压的主要原因。
中国释菜籽油
中国政府释出部份菜籽油储备,减低中国对原棕油的需求量,而埃尔尼诺现象削弱印度的消耗量。
他指出,随著中国大豆压榨能力的迅速提高,侵蚀原棕油的市占率。因此,原棕油需要更具竞争力,以重夺失去的市占率。“由於需求比预期疲弱,打击原棕油價格未能攀涨到我预测的3000令吉。原棕油價格在2月至4月,受到产量预估下跌而提振,不过,目前需求将是主要驱动力。”
末季库存看涨
英国LMC国际有限公司主席兼知名植物油行业分析员詹姆斯弗雷,在土耳其的原棕油研讨会上指出,由於原棕油产量在末季的库存提高,價格或下跌至2200至2300令吉。
“在今年末季,大马和印尼的原棕油产量,将会重返正面的增长步伐。”
由於埃尔尼诺干旱气候影响大马和印尼的原棕油产量,带动原棕油價格在3月一度触及2793令吉高位,创下2014年以来的最高点。
不过,8月原棕油期货合约週四收报2519令吉,从最高位下挫9.8%,反映出产量复苏的迹象。
大马和印尼目前是世界两大原棕油生产国,两国的原棕油产量占全球总产量的85%。


Offline zuolun

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #41 on: June 02, 2016, 05:09:49 PM »
Palm oil stocks may fall to lowest level since Feb 2011 ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/02/palm-oil-stocks-may-fall-to-lowest-level-since-feb-2011/

Leaked figures show spike in palm oil use for biodiesel in Europe ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/01/leaked-figures-show-spike-in-palm-oil-use-for-biodiesel-in-europe

Palm oil may rise into a range of 2,870-2,960 ringgit per tonne over the next three months.


Offline zuolun

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #42 on: June 04, 2016, 10:48:05 PM »
Indonesia’s Salim Group linked to ‘secret’ palm oil concessions in West Papua ~ 3 Jun 2016
https://news.mongabay.com/2016/06/indonesias-salim-group-linked-to-secret-palm-oil-concessions-in-papua/

Crude palm oil industry update Indonesia: CPO export & production ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/crude-palm-oil-industry-update-indonesia-cpo-export-production/item6879

Offline zuolun

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #43 on: June 06, 2016, 09:22:03 AM »
Palm oil falls on stronger ringgit, slow demand ~ 3 Jun 2016
http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/300116-palm-oil-falls-on-stronger-ringgit-slow-demand.html
Malaysian palm oil futures rallied to a 3- 1⁄2 week high despite a stronger ringgit. Palm oil contracts for August rose 0.9% to RM2,666 per tonne.

Offline zuolun

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #44 on: June 06, 2016, 09:37:35 AM »
Biodiesel programme helps stabilise CPO prices — FGV ~ 6 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/06/cpo-price-gets-boost/


Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2016, 05:41:28 AM »



MONEY

Malaysia palm plantations shaken by the green body they helped create
Published: June 7, 2016 05:22 PM GMT+8

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A worker unloads palm oil fruits from a lorry inside a palm oil factory in Salak Tinggi, outside Kuala Lumpur August 4, 2014.
A worker unloads palm oil fruits from a lorry inside a palm oil factory in Salak Tinggi, outside Kuala Lumpur August 4, 2014.
KUALA LUMPUR, June 7 — In 2004, Malaysian palm oil producer IOI Group became a founding member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and later an executive board member in what seemed like a cosy arrangement.

Twelve years later, IOI attempted to take legal action against RSPO over an environmental ruling that has cost the company sales in the United States and Europe.

In March, the RSPO withdrew its “sustainability certification” from IOI, based on a decision to uphold a complaint from Amsterdam-based group Aidenvironment.

The complaint alleged that IOI had illegally chopped down rainforests in the Indonesian province of West Kalimantan and planted oil palms on peat lands, which are drained and then highly flammable. Fires across Indonesia in recent years have led to a massive haze of dangerous pollution across large parts of South-east Asia.

Certification of environmentally sound behaviour is now required by some major palm oil buyers in the West, including major food and candy makers. The suspension of IOI’s green credentials caused Nestle, Unilever, Mars and Kellogg to drop IOI Group as a supplier.

In response, IOI filed a lawsuit against the RSPO in Zurich, where RSPO is based, saying the move had “caused significant disruption” to its business in Europe and America.


IOI withdrew the suit on Monday in the face of a barrage of criticism from its customers and activists, and announced it was voluntarily adopting a more stringent certification system the RSPO is putting in place by the end of the year.

“Since the filing of the challenge proceeding, IOI has engaged with many of our stakeholders such as customers, NGOs and RSPO to resolve this matter,” IOI said in a statement.

How the plantation firm and its overseer got into this situation may hold lessons for other companies in sensitive industries that are working with environmentalists to prevent deforestation and an increase in greenhouse gases, which most scientists say contribute to global warming.

“This is a call to all industries also to clean their operation and supply chain from deforestation,” said Annisa Rahmawati, Greenpeace Indonesia’s forest campaigner.

“There will be no market for companies that are still destroying our people’s life and planet.”

IOI is not the only plantation under pressure.

Malaysia’s government-linked Felda Global Ventures , the world’s third-largest plantations company, voluntarily withdrew RSPO certifications from all of its 58 processing mills after what happened to IOI.

Felda said it needed to clean up its supply chain before seeking certification again.

The plantation industry appeared to get outmanoeuvred on the RSPO, whose membership had evolved from 47 entities largely from the industry itself to 1,346 voting members, including 33 environmental and social activist groups and 612 consumer goods manufacturers, according to interviews with company executives, government officials, traders and activists.

Trees in a palm oil plantation are shrouded in haze in Klang, Malaysia, October 7, 2015.
Trees in a palm oil plantation are shrouded in haze in Klang, Malaysia, October 7, 2015.
Cheap and ubiquitous

Palm oil is the most widely used edible oil in the world, found in everything from margarine to cookies and from soap to soups.

One of the cheapest edible oils on the market, it is extracted from the pulp of the palm fruit that drops from trees in tropical plantations, most of them in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Between 1990 and 2010, up to 3.5 million hectares of forests were cut down for palm oil plantations in Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea, according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). That’s a land area the size of Germany.

The fastest and cheapest way to clear new land for plantations is by burning. Every year, hundreds of thousands of hectares go up in smoke before monsoon rains begin to fall, choking people as a haze spreads over the region.

Palm oil plantations operating in remote rainforests have come under unprecedented scrutiny the past few years, not only from the mounting influence of activists, but from their customers as well.

“The market itself said it was not good enough,” said Eric Wakker, senior consultant at Jakarta-based Aidenvironment Asia which first brought the complaint against IOI to the roundtable six years ago.

“The big manufacturers like Unilever had overtaken RSPO itself when it came to deforestation.”

By 2013, the industry was on the defensive.

Environmentalists that year organised boycotts of palm oil products at supermarkets. Greenpeace and other activists made videos for YouTube about burning forests and stranded orangutans.

Pollution from that year’s forest fires reached record levels in Singapore and Malaysia.

That’s when the RSPO itself decided it was time to change. At its annual general assembly in November 2013 in Medan, Indonesia, members voted overwhelming to beef up their standard and enforcement regime, and to commit to producing 100 per cent certified sustainable palm oil.

More importantly, RSPO agreed to overhaul its complaints panel to make it more independent. Up until then, the RSPO executive board, dominated by the plantations, ruled on complaints. “It was filled with conflicts of interest,” Wakker said.

“The IOI case cost us six years and I almost fired myself over the lack of progress in 2013, when I realised... the system was crooked,” he said.

When RSPO finally adopted a resolution to make its complaints panel more transparent, “My response to bystanders was ‘now finally Aidenvironment can become an RSPO member’. And we did.”

New complaints panel

RSPO Secretary-General Darrel Webber, who presided over the 2013 General Assembly, said in an interview the group’s new complaints panel is now in place, while the system for monitoring plantations’ compliance with sustainability standards should be fully operational by year’s end.

“People said we lack bite and take so much time,” he said. “The main point is to make (the system) independent, perceived to be independent, and efficient.”

It was this new RSPO complaints panel that suspended IOI in April, based on Aidenvironment’s complaint.

The complaint alleged that IOI had illegally chopped down rainforests in the Indonesian province of West Kalimantan and planted on peatlands, a rich storehouse of greenhouses gases, whose release into the atmosphere contributes to global warming.

IOI admitted to clearing peatlands, in a statement to the RSPO, but denied planting oil palm trees on them, saying it rehabilitated the area by planting “cuttings of an indigenous jungle species”.

The company said it is also improving firefighting capabilities in the forests, engaging consultants on various Indonesian laws, and setting aside land in their concessions for conservation.

The share price of IOI’s listed unit has lost 11 per cent since the RSPO move, and analysts estimated it could see a 7 per cent decline in net profit for the year.

Meanwhile, demand for palm keeps growing, notably from top consumers China and India, which do not demand RSPO sustainability certificates.

The two countries alone account for 30 per cent of global imports, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

It’s a frustrating issue for the growers, who say they incur extra costs to comply with RSPO standards, but often can’t get the green premium on the market. Traders say around half the certified palm oil on the market is sold at uncertified prices because of low demand for it.

Nestle said in a statement to Reuters that the issue is not about premiums. “It is about choosing suppliers who share our commitment to sustainability and are willing to continuously improve their practises.

Together, industry, suppliers, consumers, and the general public need to work together to further sustainability.” — Reuter

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/malaysia-palm-plantations-shaken-by-the-green-#####.sLfi25nP.dpuf

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #46 on: June 09, 2016, 02:10:08 PM »



Thursday, 9 June 2016 | MYT 7:06 AM
Malaysian palm price extends loss as ringgit holds on to three-week high






 The palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.4 percent at 2,589 ringgit ($637) per tonne at the end of the trading day.
The palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.4 percent at 2,589 ringgit ($637) per tonne at the end of the trading day.
 
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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures declined further on Wednesday, hitting a near two-week low, as the ringgit remained at its strongest level for nearly three weeks.

    The palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.4 percent at 2,589 ringgit ($637) per tonne at the end of the trading day.

    The market fell for a third consecutive session, bringing its loss to 2.5 percent so far this week. It earlier reached an intraday low of 2,575 ringgit, its lowest since May 27. Traded volumes stood at 55,418 lots of 25 tonnes each on Wednesday evening, versus the 2015 average of 44,600.

    "Palm is coming down on the back of a strengthening ringgit, so the market is on a profit-taking note," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

    "It is a continuation of yesterday's sell off, today and tomorrow will see consolidation activity as it awaits Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) figures."

    Government body MPOB is scheduled to release May palm oil data on June 10 around noon. A Reuters poll ahead of the data pegged May end-stocks to fall 8.8 percent to 1.64 million tonnes from April, as the surge in exports outpaced a small rise in output growth.

    Output is forecast to rise month-on-month by 3.9 percent to 1.35 million tonnes, compared with a 13.1 percent surge in  exports due to Ramadan demand.

   
 The ringgit weakened slightly against the dollar on Wednesday noon by 0.1 percent, but earlier reached an intraday high of 4.0540 per dollar, its strongest since May 18. It has gained about 2 percent so far this week.

    A stronger ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in, makes the vegetable oil more expensive for foreign currency holders.

    In related vegetable oils, the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July traded flat, while the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange

gained 0.1 percent.- Reuters

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #47 on: June 21, 2016, 02:27:31 PM »



Vegoils
Palm hits more than 5-mth low as ringgit firms; output seen higher
By Reuters / Reuters   | June 21, 2016 : 1:55 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (June 21): Malaysian palm oil futures hit a more than five-month low in early trade on Tuesday, their 11th fall in 12 sessions, as a stronger ringgit and bearish fundamentals pulled down markets, and as traders forecast output would rise in the coming months.

Export demand is also expected to taper off after Ramadan, the Muslim religious season that typically sees a higher demand for palm oil for cooking. Exports however decline after the festival period, and demand is seen cooling until the Hindu festival season of Diwali in October.

Benchmark palm oil futures for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 0.5% to RM2,387 (US$589) per tonne at noon on Monday.

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It hit RM2,386 in early trade, the lowest since Jan 13.

Palm saw its sharpest weekly decline in 8 months last week, and has lost 8.1% so far this month, on track for its worst month since Aug. 2014.

Traded volumes stood at 21,566 lots of 25 tonnes each at the mid-day break.

A stronger ringgit, the currency palm is traded in, also contributed to the decline. The Malaysian currency gained 0.3% to 4.0510 against the dollar by noon, making palm oil more expensive for foreign currency holders.

"We're seeing a continued downward trend on a strong ringgit, poor exports and rising production," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

Output in Malaysia <MYPOMP-CPOTT> is forecast to climb towards the end of the year, contributing to higher inventory levels and weighing on prices. 

May production rose nearly 5% month-on-month, while exports rose 9.3% on Ramadan demand.

Data from cargo surveyors showed palm oil shipments from Malaysia fell in the first 20 days of June, down 8-10% from the corresponding period in May. 

In competing vegetable oils, the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July rose 0.2%, while the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.6%.

The offer price for crude palm kernel oil was at RM5,357.21 per tonne <PKO-MYSTH-M1> at noon, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters

Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #48 on: June 21, 2016, 02:33:23 PM »



天气好转 库存回升 B10展延
原棕油价或触顶
242点看 2016年6月21日
(吉隆坡20日讯)随着埃尔尼诺(El Nino)带来的效应逐渐消散后,原棕油价格或已触顶,种植领域的展望转弱。大马投行分析员指出,由于天气好转,促使我国棕油库存回升,将压制原棕油价,今年总要价格或维持在每公吨2400令吉。

基于此,该分析员不太看好下半年的种植领域,并将该领域的评级,从“增持”,下修至“中和”。


此外,政府与私人领域同意展延在6月推介的B10生物柴油,可能会抑制棕油价增长动力。

原本,分析员预期B10生物柴油计划推行后,有助消化棕油库存,进而支撑棕油价增长。大马投行分析员表示,基于季节因素,我国原棕油产量将从第三季后开始回升。

分析员认为,假设中国对棕油的需求在下半年减弱,大马棕油库存有可能会冲破250万吨。去年11月,大马棕油库存量激增至291万吨,创历史新高水平,而2015年全年则达231万吨。

对于今明年平均原棕油价格预测,分别维持在每吨2400和2500令吉。


种植股涨势受限

分析员强调,原棕油价格已触顶,所以种植公司盈利从今年次季之后开始获得改善,并不会显著推动股价,因为估值已偏高。

整体而言,分析员预测,种植公司2016财年净利增长率分别落在10%至42%。

其中,土展创投(FGV,5222,主板种植股)将会在2016财年转亏为盈。

至于吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)是分析员的首选股,因为印尼的油棕树龄年轻,平均达10年,以及负债率在低水平的28.6%。

中国下半年减进口

在充足的库存,以及油脂化工和特制油脂工业放缓,分析员认为,中国下半年棕油进口将减少。

今年首4个月,中国棕油进口按年略减0.1%,而大豆进口则增11.4%。

分析员指,从较长期来看,中国从制造业转型为服务型经济体,将影响油脂化工的棕油需求。

中国从大马进口棕油量在2014年和2015年,分别按年减少23.3%和16.2%。

不过,受到人口增长和城市化推动,中国食用油领域在棕油使用量仍保持韧性。

中国在去年10月实施全面二胎政策,将推动人口增加。


大豆供应看涨

分析员指,全球大豆市场出现两项结构变动,将影响需求和供应动态。

中国储存和扶持玉米价格活动已在3月底结束,农夫从种植玉米,转向大豆。

假设大豆种植地增加200万公顷,每公顷平均收成为1.5吨,将把当地产量推高3万吨,或占去年大豆进口量的3.7%。

在扣除任何不好的天气因素下,南美洲的大豆产量将会增加。

“短期内,大豆价格已触顶。我们相信,今年至今大豆价格上涨31.7%,已反映出阿根廷和美国大豆产量下跌的因素。”

分析员表示,大豆油和原棕油之间的差价收窄,将鼓励买家加码大豆油,所以相信下半年的差价会扩大。

截至6月10日,大豆油和原棕油之间的差价落在12%。



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Offline king

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Re: CRUDE PALM OIL
« Reply #49 on: June 22, 2016, 05:48:45 AM »



财经  2016年06月21日
B10推迟不影响库存 棕油领域前景续看俏

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(吉隆坡21日讯)虽然B10生物柴油计划將从6月推迟至7月,但分析员认为这不会显著影响本地棕油公司的库存,並持续看好棕油领域的前景。

虽 然如此,今日跌幅榜充斥一些种植股,其中联合种植(UTDPLT,2089,主板种植股)跌势最显著,闭市报26.52令吉,跌48仙或1.78%,是最 大下跌股;锦隆资源(KMLOONG,5027,主板种植股)则跌7仙或2.04%,至3.36令吉,是第23大下跌股,FELDA环球投资 (FGV,5222,主板种植股)则跌6仙或3.77%,至1.53令吉,排在第25位。

种植指数滑落

种植股指数今日报7559.92点,全天滑落42.27点或0.56%。44只种植股当中,共有4只上升股、15只下跌股和12只平盘,另外13只无交易。


根据《路透社》报导,大马政府正与棕油公司洽谈,將B10生物柴油计划挪后至7月,比原定的6月推迟一个月,目標是在8月全面实施这项新標准。

MIDF研究分析员对此表示,「据我们了解,其理由是让棕油公司重新调整混合油比例和採购棕油甲酯(PME)。」

无 论如何,该分析员对上述消息抱持中和看法,並认为隨著棕油已经在5月尾下跌至165万公吨的5年以来最低水平,B10生物柴油计划被展延,不会显著地影响 棕油库存,长远来说,B10生物柴油计划势在必行,因为本地的生物柴油使用量提高,將降低大马的棕油库存,他重申,「长远来说,我们预计生物柴油计划可將 棕油库存,维持在低过250万公吨的受控制水平,尤其是在9月至11月的棕油產量高峰期。」

此外,分析员指出,大马的生物柴油使用量已经好转,他相信5月份的棕油使用量走高,极可能是由较高的柴油使用量所支撑。5月份的棕油使用量按季和按年分別升高3.4%和8.9%,至26万零522公吨。

「我们相信棕油价目前被低估,因为即使棕油库存创5年新低,但棕油价与大豆油价格的差距已扩大至每公吨110美元。」

分析员强调,从近期最低的价差每公吨54美元来看,棕油和大豆油的价差翻了一倍。目前的价差比过去一年的平均每公吨98美元价差高。

MIDF研究继续看好原棕油领域,並且依然认为棕油价短期內在每公吨2500令吉至每公吨2800令吉之间波动。

其首选股是吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股),原因有3个:一、棕油价高企可令该公司的净利表现受惠;二、其2016財政年上半年净利按年上升41%;三、它是少数综指里的种植大蓝筹,同时拥有棕油永续发展圆桌会议(RSPO)认证