Author Topic: INTEREST RATES  (Read 5401 times)

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INTEREST RATES
« on: March 08, 2016, 06:11:59 PM »



名家  2016年03月08日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
负利率引爆全球危机

负利率引爆全球危机
日本央行把利率降至负数,国民把钱存到银行反而吃亏。

负利率的荒繆是扭曲了正常经济,遏制了长期生產力的提升。也就是说,倘若你借钱给政府並持有到期,不但没钱赚还得倒贴,有如贴钱哀求別人借钱。

「负利率不可为,为何央行为之?」

这是很多人看了当今各国中央银行竞相减息,甚至不顾民生,硬把银行存款利率降至负数的做法所產生的疑惑。

马克思说过:「如果有10%的利润,资本就保证到处被使用;有20%的利润,它就活跃起来;有50%的利润,它就鋌而走险;为了100%的利润,它就敢践踏一切人间法律;有300%的利润,它就敢犯任何罪行,甚至冒绞首的危险。如果动乱和纷爭能带来利润,它就会鼓励动乱和纷爭。走私和贩卖奴隶就是证明。」

经济要活跃起来,必须要有利润空间,资本才会四处被使用。但是,现在西方国家和日本的利率远远低于长期平均数,甚至欧元区、瑞士、瑞典、丹麦和日本的央行相继將一些关键性的利率设定为了负数,试图刺激增长和通胀。这会造成什么结果呢?

欧洲不敢征收费用

美国联邦储备局前主席格林斯潘接受彭博採访时表示,「最大的问题在于,如果极端的低利率长时间存在,就会扭曲真实投资的模式。」

因此,过低的利率不会提高投资,只能鼓吹投机。实业投资中,低利率使得本来不可行的投资变得可行,造成不能提高真实的生產力,只是让资本流去可以快速见效的领域,如页岩油。这投资並不能推动技术和生產力的升级。

在日本,许多不愿花钱的长者,眼见负利率也不愿把钱存进银行,导致日本保险柜销售情况火热。如今日本万元大钞需求不断攀升,专家估计可能是民眾把財產换成万元大钞,藏在家中保险柜所致。现在欧洲还不敢因为央行施行负利率而向存户徵收费用,因为担心会引发存款大量被取走。

负利率的荒繆是扭曲了正常经济,遏制了长期生產力的提升。也就是说,倘若你借钱给政府並持有到期,不但没钱赚还得倒贴,有如贴钱哀求別人借钱。

中央银行採取这种顛倒世间常理的政策,目的是鼓励借贷,但是这些借贷大多不会用在投资上,而是投机。非但无助于经济,还对未来製造了经济危机。

负利率积压了债券投资和借贷利差,使得金融业利润空间受到挤压,反加剧了它们经营的困难。经济合作暨发展组织(OECD)曾经发佈报告,认为超宽鬆货幣政策已对退休基金、保险公司的偿付能力构成严重威胁,因为他们很难在当前金融环境下创造出足够的收入,退休族的收入可能因而缩水。

不具备无限举债能力

特別是人寿保险公司、退休基金因长年超低利率政策而宣告破產!德国央行的研究显示,在平均报酬率仅有1-2%的假设前提下,85家德国寿险公司当中有32家可能会在2023年以前宣告破產。

因为这些发达国家爭相实施负利率,目前估计全球有1/4公债,持有不但赚不到钱,还必须承担亏损。利率太低迫使投资者將资金转移去高风险性的资產,如垃圾债和股票市场,这使得未来金融体系种下不稳定的种子。

正如前述,经济要正常运作须要有利润空间。负利率扭曲了成本和利润,希望可以超低利率鼓励更多的借贷,反而造成生產和投资的破坏。既然低利率有这么大的坏处,为何央行还要推出更激进的负利率呢?

原因在于现代法幣体系的设计是「庞氏骗局」。它的特点是要不断通过更多的借贷,创造出更多的债务,印更多的钞票,才能维持运作下去。这制度是建立在无限债务增长的基础上,唯任何理性的人都知道债务不可能无限增长,人民也不具备无限举债的能力。

为了延长这体系的寿命,中央银行过去都是採取不断降息的政策,升息都只是短暂的,长期趋势就是要利息下降,才可以撑住不断膨胀的债务。当债务无法再膨胀,利息低无可低,这庞氏化的货幣体系就玩到头了。央行也知道这一点,所以这些央行非常畏惧通缩,反而不断把让人民財富(钞票和储蓄)贬值的通胀视为王道。

负利率和不断出现量化宽鬆,目的只是要將这有问题的货幣体系的寿命再延长多几年,而不是解决这体系造成的经济问题。

只要將这货幣体系的本质看透,就会明白通缩永远都是暂时性的,通胀才是大趋势。这些央行会不断运用各种手段推高通胀,至到他们发行的货幣变成废纸为止。

然而,若马来西亚有一天也走到「负利率」之路,那么,大马人如何持盈保泰,捍卫自己的血汗钱?这问题值得我们思考

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INTEREST RATES
« on: March 08, 2016, 06:11:59 PM »

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2016, 06:19:16 PM »




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負利率出師不利!日本銀行業存款增幅升、放款趨緩
回應(0) 人氣(485) 收藏(0) 2016/03/08 11:57
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-08 11:57:25 記者 賴宏昌 報導
日本央行(BOJ)8日公布,2016年2月主要銀行/區域銀行放款成長率年增2.2%、低於1月的2.3%;2月存款年增率達3.1%、高於1月的2.9%。BOJ 1月29日宣布將超額存款準備金率(IOER)自0.1%降至-0.1%,2月16日起日本商業銀行存放在BOJ約10兆日圓存款開始適用負利率新制。嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,美元兌日圓2月月線重貶6.87%、創2008年10月(7.32%)以來最大跌幅。
BOJ總裁黑田東彥7日在讀賣國際經濟協會(Yomiuri International Economic Society)發表演說時指出,日本金融業競爭激烈、銀行不可能因為負利率政策(NIRP)就把放款利率提高。此外,銀行為了要維護與客戶的長期關係,也不可能將存款利率降至負值,因為那將導致存款被領光。
黑田還提到,NIRP實施後若將100萬日圓存放在超大型銀行普通帳戶一年、利息將由原本的200日圓(相當於年利率為0.02%)大減至10日圓(年利率為0.001%)。

華爾街日報報導,日本央行副總裁中曾宏(Hiroshi Nakaso)3日向日本家庭、企業喊話,相望他們能夠採取大膽行動、充分利用當前的金融環境。
Thomson Reuters曾報導,紐約FED經濟學家在官方部落格上表示,如果將IOER降至負值,貨幣市場和銀行體系將因而受傷。更何況,調降IOER並不會改變銀行的放貸標準。
2016年2月Nikkei-Markit日本服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)自1月的52.4(2015年8月以來新高)降至51.2、平11個月以來最低紀錄,綜合(包括製造業、服務業)產出指數自1月的52.6(5個月新高)降至51.0、創2015年4月以來新低。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2016, 06:21:09 PM »




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負利率發威!日經:日本貨幣市場基金將吹熄燈號
回應(0) 人氣(595) 收藏(0) 2016/03/08 13:20
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-08 13:20:21 記者 賴宏昌 報導
日本經濟新聞8日報導,1992年5月於日本市場問世的貨幣市場基金即將吹熄燈號。報導指出,日本11家經營貨幣市場基金的資本管理公司因無力在負利率政策(NIRP)環境下創造穩定獲利(註:報酬率已創下史上最低的0.02%),因此計畫將資金歸還給投資人。截至3月4日為止,日本貨幣市場基金資產管理規模達1.37兆日圓(120億美元)。
野村資產管理公司、大和資產管理公司分別計畫在8、10月將資金還給投資人,三菱UFJ國際投信則是預計在4、5月間進行。日興(Nikko Asset Management Co.)等其他5家資產管理有限公司也都在7日宣布跟進。日本貨幣市場基金資產管理規模在2000年5月觸頂、達到21兆日圓。
NIRP實施後日本投資人若將100萬日圓存放在超大型銀行普通帳戶一年、利息將由原本的200日圓(相當於年利率為0.02%)大減至10日圓(年利率為0.001%)。日本央行(BOJ)8日公布,2016年2月主要銀行/區域銀行放款成長率年增2.2%、低於1月的2.3%;2月存款年增率達3.1%、高於1月的2.9%。

BOJ 1月29日宣布將超額存款準備金率(IOER)自0.1%降至-0.1%,2月16日起日本商業銀行存放在BOJ約10兆日圓存款開始適用負利率新制。
穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.)上個月即提出警告,NIRP恐將危及日本貨幣市場基金產業的生計。
ftseglobalmarkets.com上個月報導,惠譽(Fitch Ratings)指出,多數日本貨幣市場基金停收新資金或減免手續費/管理費只能暫時避免讓基金收益率轉負,一旦出現負數、可能就會爆發嚴重的贖回潮。
今日美國報報導,美國聯準會(FED)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)上個月在國會作證時表示,FED之所以沒有在2010年動用NIRP是因為擔心貨幣市場基金將會受傷。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2016, 06:23:32 PM »




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Fed別等太久才升息!銀髮族海嘯來襲 薪資凍漲是假象
回應(0) 人氣(596) 收藏(0) 2016/03/08 14:34
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-08 14:34:54 記者 郭妍希 報導
美國上週五(3月4日)公布的2月份非農業就業人數雖然成長強勁,但平均每小時工資卻不增反減0.1%、成為敗筆。許多人都覺得奇怪,為何就業市況穩定改善,過去兩年的薪資成長卻都在2.25%停滯不前(遠低於1983年至2015年的平均3.25%成長率)?
舊金山聯邦儲備銀行的研究報告顯示,屬於高薪一族的戰後嬰兒潮陸續退休、再加上大量低薪的兼職員工轉為正職,是壓低整體薪資成長的主要因素。也就是說,美國就業市場也許比表面看來還要強勁,聯準會(Fed)想等薪資上揚後再來升息,恐怕會鑄成大錯。不過,由於近期通膨仍將受到壓抑,因此Fed也不應太快作出升息的結論。
MarketWatch 7日報導,舊金山聯邦儲備銀行資深副總裁兼研究部副主任Mary Daly、研究助理Benjamin Pyle與亞利桑那州立大學經濟學教授Bart Hobijn在報告中指出,美國許多兼職員工開始轉為正職,這些新進員工薪水通常不如原本的正職員工,因而壓低了整體薪資的平均值。

除此之外,高薪的嬰兒潮開始退休、「銀髮族海嘯」(silver tsunami)來襲,也拖累薪資均值。研究發現,在修正勞工組成的變化後,薪資其實與帶動兼職員工轉為正職、表現相當強勁的就業市場頗為相符。
不過,這是否會拉高通膨,仍不一定。報告指出,只要雇主能繼續壓低平均薪資,未來一段時間內勞工成本應該還不至於推高通膨。然而,假如低薪員工的生產力較低,那麼企業或許面臨單位勞工成本增加的困境,接下來很可能會被迫轉嫁成本、拉高售價。
Fed副主席費雪(Stanley Fischer)7日即駁斥低失業率、低通膨之間聯繫已被打破的理論,宣稱兩者的關聯不久就能再次得到驗證。
路透社、英國金融時報報導,費雪7日在一場經濟論壇上表示,在油價、美元止穩後,美國通膨率遲早會朝2%標邁進。他還說,通膨距離央行預設的目標(2%)並沒有大家想像那麼遠。
富蘭克林坦伯頓全球宏觀團隊投資長、「富坦全球債券基金」(Templeton Global Bond Fund)冠軍操盤人麥可哈森泰博(Michael Hasenstab)2月12日在官網也曾發表最新研究報告指出,油價不需上漲、只要持穩不再續跌,則通膨率就可回歸到2%的正軌。強勢美元雖然也會壓低美國通膨,但哈森泰博指出,就算美元相對歐元升值了10%、也只會讓通膨率下降10個基點。因此,主要影響通膨的是油價,而他認為這個因素是短暫的。
另一方面,美國就業市況逐漸改善,目前已相當接近充分就業、人力資源冗餘(slack)的狀況也正在快速消失,以薪資成長速度、員工辭職率等因素來看,薪資成長率應該會達到2.7%,進而支撐消費與需求。
分析顯示,衡量失業率與通膨關係的菲利普斯曲線(US Phillips Curve)自2006年起就漸趨陡峭,這代表失業率持續下滑即將拉高通膨壓力。原物料價格止穩同樣也能支撐通膨反彈。根據哈森泰博估算,整體消費者物價指數(CPI)應該會在2016年第4季拉升至2.2%、遠高於Fed與市場原先預期。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2016, 06:24:38 PM »




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鴿派崩潰了!美國通膨蠢動,FED副座暗示再升息
回應(0) 人氣(651) 收藏(0) 2016/03/08 15:03
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-08 15:03:31 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)副座費雪(Stanley Fischer)料事如神,不愧為當今最有影響力的經濟學家之一,他預測油價將回穩、通膨將走揚,如今一一應驗。

費雪去年八月出席傑克森洞全球央行年會時曾表示,升息必須走在通膨之前,FED不會等到通膨回升到目標水平後再出手,結果FED真於去年底開出升息的第一槍,而FED偏愛的通膨指標「個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」年增率也在今年1月乖乖的回升至1.3%,核心PCE 更是年增1.7%,直逼FED預設的2%。

儘管通膨目前還未達陣,但重點是通膨從低點反彈速度之快,已足以讓FED提高警覺。且別忘了,油價與原物料價格二月才開始大幅反彈,這都還沒列入一月通膨的計算範圍之內。經濟學家去年中旬就已開始擔心FED貨幣正常化時程落後,好在FED終究還是升息了,否則如果當時沒有作為,現在回頭看可能悔之晚矣。

費雪目前儼然是鷹派精神領袖,他周一受訪時再度重申,美元、油價對通膨的影響都將退去,通膨也將往2%的目標前進,暗示當前還有再升息的空間。(法新社)

當然,FED內部不乏搞不清楚狀況的鴿派官員,如FED理監事布雷娜德(Lael Brainard),截至昨日為止,她還在擔心美國低通膨問題,並希望等候更多數據證明通膨回穩。

*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2016, 01:07:04 AM »
 :thumbsup:

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2016, 06:56:42 AM »



Never Go Full-Kuroda: NIRP Plus QE Will Be Contractionary Disaster In Japan, CS Warns
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2016 15:40 -0500

2s10s 2s10s 2s10s. Central Banks Credit Suisse Fractional Reserve Banking Japan Monetary Policy NIM Quantitative Easing Yield Curve


 
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In late January, when Haruhiko Kuroda took Japan into NIRP, he made it official.

He was full-everything. Full-Krugman. Full-Keynes. Full-post-crisis-central-banker-******.

In fact, with the BoJ monetizing the entirety of JGB gross issuance as well as buying up more than half of all Japanese ETFs and now plunging headlong into the NIRP twilight zone, one might be tempted to say that Kuroda has transcended comparison to become the standard for monetary policy insanity.

The message to DM central bank chiefs is clear: You’re either “full-Kuroda” or you’re not trying hard enough.

But as we’ve seen, the confluence of easy money policies are beginning to have unintended consequences. For instance, it’s hard to pass on NIRP to depositors without damaging client relationships so banks may paradoxically raise mortgage rates to preserve margins, the exact opposite of what central banks intend.

And then there’s the NIRP consumption paradox, which we outlined on Monday: if households believe that negative rates are likely to crimp their long-term wealth accumulation, they may well stop spending in the present and save more. Again, the exact opposite of what central bankers intend.

In the same vein, Credit Suisse is out with a new piece that explains why simultaneously pursuing NIRP and QE is likely to be contractionary rather than expansionary for the real economy in Japan.



In its entirety, the note is an interesting study on the interaction between BoJ policy evolution and private bank profitability, but the overall point is quite simple: pursuing QE and NIRP at the same time will almost certainly prove to be contractionary for the Japanese.

Here’s how the chain reaction works.

Obviously, as the term spread narrows, bank margins are pinched. NIM at Japanese banks has plunged over the past decade and the correlation between that decline at the flattening 2s10s spread is noticeably strong:



As CS goes on to note, “flattening of the JGB yield curve has also affected the duration of bank liabilities.”

In short, as the spread between term deposits and demand deposits narrowed, it made no sense for depositors to keep their money tied up for longer. So what did they do? Well, they just shifted to demand deposits:



Of course that’s bad news for banks because it increases liquidity risk.

Demand deposits are due.. well.. on demand and so, to the extent you were offsetting some of your maturity mismatch (which is inevitable in fractional reserve banking, but which must nonetheless be managed) with term deposits, the shift forces you to change the composition of your assets. Or, as Credit Suisse puts it:

This means that banks now face greater liquidity risk on the liabilities side of their balance sheets and must therefore invest in more liquid assets. Banks thus have a strong incentive to hold (highly liquid) JGBs while finding it harder to lend at relatively high interest rates to relatively high-risk businesses that are in need of funds. This is likely to have been another factor behind tightening of interest spreads. Of course, the fact that banks have grown more reluctant to lend is also an important problem in its own right.
You can probably start to see where this is going.

The flattening yield curve (the result of QE) had already put enormous amounts of pressure on bank margins. Because, as Credit Suisse puts it, “retail deposit rates exhibit greater downward rigidity than loan rates,” NIRP only pinches those margins further. That is, as the BoJ moves further into NIRP, the only thing moving lower for banks is what they can charge on loans. There’s no passing the cost on to depositors. In a rare moment of sellside conciseness, Credit Suisse puts it thus:

The bottom-line is that the BoJ's simultaneous pursuit of the NIRP and the QE (quantitative easing) or aggressive long-term JGB buying, which is likely to lead to further flattening of the JGB yield curve, would make private banks increasingly less confident in their future earnings and therefore weaken their capacity to make loans over the medium run. As the term spread has narrowed by roughly 10bps since the BoJ announced the introduction of the NIRP, there appears to have been some 0.4% of contractionary impact on bank loans in the pipeline.
 
Unfortunately private banks are implicitly being asked to bear the burden of negative interest rates, with various policymakers having indicated that they do not want to see negative rates imposed on retail depositors. Banks have responded by lowering term deposit rates so that they are now on a rough par with ordinary deposit rates at only just above zero, which is likely to catalyze a shift out of term deposits into ordinary deposits that will saddle banks with greater liquidity risk on the liabilities side of the balance sheet. This mechanism is ultimately likely to impede financial intermediation, thereby having a contractionary impact on credit.
"Unfortunate", indeed.

What this means is that Kuroda has now managed to ease and expand his way into a contractionary tightening. And by the way, it's not only the NPL problem that plagues European banks. There are also very real concerns about the effects NIRP will have on profitability. There's every reason to believe that the same dynamic described above will apply there as well.

The lesson: you never, ever go full-Kuroda.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2016, 07:35:59 AM »


 
歐央行印鈔滿週年 每分鐘花130萬效益微
  2016年3月08日
 (倫敦8日訊)歐洲央行啟動印鈔計劃將滿一週年,央行總裁德拉吉及其同僚已經為此花費逾7000億歐元(約3.17兆令吉),但效果遠未達到預期。市場普遍預期歐洲央行本週四將進一步下調負利率,並擴大量化寬鬆措施。

 “路透社”報導,歐洲央行推出的量寬(俗稱印鈔)相當于每分鐘花掉130萬歐元(約588萬令吉)、或者說歐元區不分男女老幼,人均花費2000歐元(約9046令吉),但通脹卻微乎其微,經濟增長依然疲軟,股市也下跌了13%。



 儘管美聯儲已啟動10年來的首次升息,歐元兌美元還是上漲了近5%。

 不過也有一些正面跡象。歐元區債市借款成本降低,雖然不是普遍降低;失業率也繼續走低,並有初步跡象顯示銀行對企業和家庭的貸款逐漸增加。

週四料加大刺激力道

 歐洲央行估計,這項措施在2015至2017年期間將為區內生產總值增幅貢獻近1%,幅度相當可觀,因為總體增幅還不到2%。

 3月9日是歐洲央行啟動印鈔計劃一週年,該央行將于10日舉行下一次政策會議。外界預期當局將進一步放寬政策。除了再下調負利率,預計也會擴大當前每月600億歐元(約2714億令吉)的購債規模、抑或是在2017年3月份到期之后延長該政策。

 歐洲央行本週四料將進一步下調負利率,市場擔心此舉可能壓低政府債券收益率,進一步降低借貸成本。目前許多國家的借貸成本已接近歷史最低水平。

 《華爾街日報》報導,許多投資者警告市場可能出現較大波動,且如果歐洲央行推出的刺激措施力度小于市場預期,可能引發市場動盪。

 分析師和投資組合經理稱,他們仍懷疑負利率政策在刺激經濟增長和通脹方面的效果

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2016, 02:38:42 PM »




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難怪日本保險箱賣翻!NIRP發揮、現金增幅創13年新高
回應(0) 人氣(252) 收藏(0) 2016/03/09 10:53
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-09 10:53:01 記者 蔡承啟 報導
根據日本央行(BOJ)於9日公佈的貨幣供給量(Money Stock)數據顯示,2016年2月份代表性指標M3(現金+存款+準貨幣+CD)較去年同月成長2.5%至1,237.7兆日圓,增幅較前月下滑0.1個百分點;和前月份(1月份)相比,M3減少了0.4%,為5個月來首度呈現月減。
日經新聞指出,除了銀行放款鈍化之外,BOJ導入負利率政策(NIRP)導致存單(Certificates of Deposit;CD)利率走低、存單金額減少,也是造成M3呈現月減的因素。
就M3的細項來看,現金(流通中的貨幣)較去年同月大增6.7%至90.3兆日圓,創13年來(2003年2月以來)最大增幅紀錄,大增主因為存款利率處於低水準,造成家庭/企業把錢存在銀行的好處降低、持有現金的機會成本下滑;活期存款較去年同月成長4.5%至540.6兆日圓;包含定期存款在內的準貨幣(Quasi-money)較去年同月成長0.4%至570.3兆日圓;存單較去年同月下滑0.1%至36.5兆日圓、為2年半來(2013年8月以來)首度呈現下滑,較前月份相比大減7%。

另外,2月份日本M2(M3扣除郵局等機構的存款額)較去年同月成長3.1%至919.3兆日圓,增幅較前月下滑0.1個百分點。
2月份日本於M3中追加投資信託、國債等項目的「廣義貨幣流動性(Broadly-defined Liquidity)」較去年同月上揚3.9%至1,640.8兆日圓。
BOJ 8日公布,2016年2月日本主要銀行/區域銀行放款成長率年增2.2%、低於1月的2.3%;2月存款年增率達3.1%、高於1月的2.9%。BOJ 1月29日宣布將超額存款準備金率(IOER)自0.1%降至-0.1%,2月16日起日本商業銀行存放在BOJ約10兆日圓存款開始適用負利率新制。
BOJ總裁黑田東彥7日在讀賣國際經濟協會(Yomiuri International Economic Society)發表演說時指出,NIRP實施後日本投資人若將100萬日圓存放在超大型銀行普通帳戶一年、利息將由原本的200日圓(相當於年利率為0.02%)大減至10日圓(年利率為0.001%)。
Newsmax 2月22日引述華爾街日報報導,日本家用商品零售商島忠(Shimachu Co. Ltd)指出,截至2016年2月21日為止當週保險箱銷售量是一年前同期的2.5倍。Shimachu銷售人員Mariko Shimokawa透露,為了因應負利率、有老年人打算把錢存放在家裡。Zerohedge也引述華爾街日報報導,一款價值700美元的保險箱已銷售一空、預估一個月後才會有貨


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2016, 08:11:27 PM »



Sudden Plunge In Japanese Government Bonds Triggers Circuit Breaker, Halts Market For 30 Seconds
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2016 05:40 -0500

Bond Circuit Breakers Japan Nomura POMO POMO Recession Volatility


 
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It was just yesterday when we observed the record collapse across the Japanese curve when first the 10Y JGB plunged to an all time low -0.10%, followed promptly by 30Y yields dropping 21bps - the biggest absolute drop in over 3 years and biggest percentage drop ever - to a record low 47bps following Japan's 30Year auction on Monday night. As we further noted, since Kuroda unleashed NIRP, the entire JGB curve has been crushed and the Monday night rush for long duration debt flattened the curve to record lows.



 

What a difference a day makes.

Just 24 hours later trading of Japan’s government bond futures was halted for less 30 second after the price of the contracts dropped as much as 0.6 percent. As Bloomberg reports, the dynamic circuit breaker on the Osaka Securities Exchange was activated at 12:32 p.m. and was applied to March contracts according to Masaki Takahashi, who works in the market management department at the Osaka Securities Exchange.



The website of the OSE parent Japan Exchange’s website said the circuit breaker is triggered "to temporarily halt trading in order to allow investors to calm down when the market is overly volatile."

The reason for the trading halt is that a day after sliding to the lowest yield on record, on Wednesday the benchmark 10-year bond tumbled, pushing yields up eight basis points to minus 0.015 percent as of 2:51 p.m. Yields rebounded after dropping more than five basis points to a record minus 0.1 percent Tuesday. The selloff was triggered after an increase in selling into the BOJ's POMO when the bid-to-cover ratio for debt with 10 to 20 years to maturity rose to 3.58 from 2.93 last week, indicating stronger investor demand to sell, and that investors were looking to offload inventory to the BOJ.

"Weak outcome of BOJ’s bond purchase, especially 10y-25y tenor, spurs selling JGBs given that yesterday’s rally was excessive move,” says Takenobu Nakashima, quantitative strategist at Nomura Securities.

The BOJ’s bond operation result spurred JGB selling “given that yesterday’s rally was excessive,” Nakashima said.

Here is the dramatic surge in yields, the biggest jump since February 12.



 

And here is the moment the price collapsed triggering the circuit breaker.



 

And so the market chaos even among the "safest" of securities, the result of central bank intervention, continues. Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summarized it best:

Even with QEs creating what look an awful lot like bubbles, it’s been fair to say, those distortions reflected the reaction function of how central bankers interpreted the state of play. Yield levels, let alone negative rates, and volatility are making these guideposts increasingly questionable.
 
If you look at the yield curves of much of the world, you’d be hard pressed not to conclude we are very much still experiencing a severe global recession. Central bankers may strongly disagree, yet Japanese 10-year JGBs haven’t seen 2% this century. German bunds have backed up to 21bps. Both are likely to increase QE. The U.S. is tightening (?) and 10- year yields are still down 42bps on the year
 
The Fed wants to raise rates but insists on re-investing the take on its massive portfolio. They act like fund managers protecting their AUM.
 
The Osaka Stock Exchange had to invoke circuit breakers today on the March JGB future for excessive volatility. Buying panic yesterday to front-run today’s QE buying led to panic selling today into BOJ bids 22 bps through Monday’s close. Oh, and did I mention, ahead of an auction tomorrow. The take-away is mayhem, not analysis.
And now we look forward to an even greater surge in volatility first ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, and then first the Fed and BOJ next week, who - just like everyone else - have no idea what is going on any more

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2016, 05:59:06 AM »



Former Fed President: "We Injected Cocaine And Heroin Into The System To Create A Wealth Effect"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2016 14:17 -0500

Fisher


 
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Just two months ago, former Fed President **** Fisher admitted that "The Fed front-loaded an enormous market rally in order to create a wealth effect." Today he is back, taking a victory lap onthe 7th anniversary of the crisis lows by explaining, rather stunningly, to CNBC that "we injected cocaine and heroin into the system" to enable a wealth effect (that he admits did not work, despite its success in raising asset prices), and "now we are maintaining it with ritalin." Fisher also confirmed his previous warning that "The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left."

 

Fisher explains how The Fed achieved its goals... but admits that didn't really fix anything...



 

And here is CNBC's higher quality (edited) version where the blame for everything is pinned on "feckless fiscal authorities..."



 

Once again, Fisher appears to be undertaking a major "cover-your-*" episosde, proclaiming that he was against QE3 which is what has forced "valuations to be very richly priced."

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2016, 06:03:58 AM »


Kiwi Plunges As New Zealand Announces "Surprise" Rate Cut, Warns On China
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2016 15:14 -0500

China New Zealand


 
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They don't call it a "currency war" for nothing.

Moments ago, the RBNZ cut rates by 25 bps to 2.25% in the latest shot across the bow in what is now a years-long race to the bottom.

Here are the bullets:

NEW ZEALAND CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 2.25% FROM 2.50%
RBNZ SAYS FURTHER EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION IS APPROPRIATE
RBNZ SEES INFLATION REACHING 2% IN 1Q 2018 VS 4Q 2017
RBNZ SEES 4Q 2016 ANNUAL INFLATION AT 1.1% VS 1.6%
Cue the kiwi plunge:



RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler apparently made up his mind last week:

WHEELER: DECIDED TO CUT RATES LAST FRIDAY
But someone forgot to tell the PhD's because 15 out of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected New Zealand to stand pat.

We don't blame them. After all, who could have foreseen competitive easing in this environment?

Meanwhile, the RBNZ is going full-Kyle Bass on China:

RBNZ SAYS DRAMATIC BUILD-UP IN CHINA CORPORATE DEBT TO "ENORMOUS" LEVEL
RBNZ SAYS CHINA BUILDING AND MANUFACTURING SECTORS "VERY MUCH UNDER STRESS
RBNZ SAYS CHALLENGE WITH CHINA IS IT IS BUILDING UP A NUMBER OF SERIOUS IMBALANCES

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2016, 08:49:19 AM »




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意外!紐西蘭降息至歷史新低,紐幣急貶2%
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MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-10 06:56:27 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
紐西蘭央行(RBNZ)周四宣布降息一碼,利率降至史上新低的2.25%,出乎市場意料之外,致使紐幣應聲狂瀉。

RBNZ在聲明稿上表示,中國與歐洲經濟成長趨緩、全球景氣惡化,是本次降息的主因。此前,多數經濟學家預期央行應會再多觀察一段時間。

紐西蘭經濟以畜牧業為主,RBNZ尤其擔心乳製品產業受外部逆風衝擊,將之與通膨預期下滑並列為紐西蘭經濟最大風險來源。據Globalpost.com報導,紐西蘭乳製品去年出口產值達115億美元,占總出口比重17%。

除此之外,RBNZ還表示,為確保通膨返回目標區間,未來可能有需要進一步放寬貨幣政策。紐西蘭目前通膨年增率僅0.1%,遠低於央行要求的1-3%之間。

據CNBC.com報導,紐幣兌美元在央行宣布降息後,從0.6783重貶至0.665,貶值幅度達2%。

*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2016, 08:52:00 AM »



Thursday, 10 March 2016
Bank Negara maintains benchmark interest rate






 The central bank last adjusted the OPR with a 25-basis point hike in July 2014.
The central bank last adjusted the OPR with a 25-basis point hike in July 2014.
 
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PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara has maintained the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR), to which commercial banks base their deposit and lending rates, at 3.25%, consistent with market expectations.

The central bank said in a statement following a meeting of the monetary policy committee that the stance of monetary policy remained accommodative and supportive of growth.

It said policymakers recognised that there were heightened risks in the global economic and financial environment and would closely monitor and assess their implications on domestic price stability and growth.

“The prospects are for domestic demand to remain as the key driver of growth. While private consumption is expected to moderate, household spending will continue to be supported by the growth in income and employment, and the additional disposable income from the measures announced during the 2016 Budget Recalibration,” it added.



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The central bank last adjusted the OPR with a 25-basis point hike in July 2014.

Policymakers surprised the market after a January meeting with a 50-basis-point cut in the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) to 3.50%. The move freed up to RM6bil into the banking system.

Economists expect more cuts in the SRR, which refers to a regulation that requires commercial banks to have an amount of funds kept with the central bank, interest-free, and used to manage liquidity in the banking system, this year.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2016, 09:05:51 AM »



2016年03月10日 07:16 AM
日本负利率政策为何陷入困境?
作者:英国《金融时报》专栏作家 吉莲•邰蒂
 

我们很难把“搬起石头砸自己的脚”译成日文。这令人遗憾。6个月前,日本政府将日本邮政银行(Japan Post Bank)私有化,将价值12万亿日元的股票出售给公众。这家金融集团拥有逾200万亿日元的资产。

日本政府希望此举将最终吸引普通投资者(所谓的渡边太太(Mrs Watanabes))投资股票,鼓励家家户户放弃现金,愿意承受资产风险,从而推动增长。

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然而,那是日本央行(Bank of Japan)今年1月推出负利率之前的事情;负利率最近导致日本10年期政府债券收益率降至零以下。这对日本邮政银行的冲击将超过其他任何金融机构,因为该行投资组合中的几乎一半资产是此类债券。难怪该行股价大跌至低于首次公开发行(IPO)发行价逾20%的水平。日本政府对该银行的处置没有让“渡边太太”享受到股市风险的乐趣,反而烧伤了她。

日本以外的很多人很容易将这视为个案。这么认为就错了。这个故事带给我们的教训是,被如今疯狂的央行货币实验推入“爱丽丝梦游仙境”般金融世界的不仅仅是投资者。政府也正被带入奇特的政策矛盾,这引发了有关负利率能不能收到预期效果的质疑——在日本以及其他国家。


要理解这点,看一看日本货币政策实验的作用机制吧。当日本央行提出负利率时,官员们辩称,负利率将推动增长,因为这种冲击将最终迫使企业和投资者利用他们闲置的巨额资金或银行存款,做一些富有成效的事情。

这听上去合情合理,但官员们还担心,银行负利率将导致储户把钱藏在枕头底下,因此他们借鉴瑞士的经验,从政策设计上确保散户账户不适用负利率。唯一面对负利率的存款是大型金融机构存放在日本央行的存款,资产规模约为10万亿日元。

如果这10万亿日元资金属于企业或银行,那就可能会有一个向着“实体”经济的清晰传导机制。但关注亚洲的里昂证券(CLSA)分析师布赖恩•沃特豪斯(Brian Waterhouse)估计,这其中有高达8万亿日元来自日本邮政银行,而该行被禁止发放贷款。当然,如果该行通过买入日本高风险资产(例如股票和债券)对负利率做出回应,它仍能创造间接的信贷来源,尽管目前该行似乎并没有这么做。

相反,与其他资产管理者一样,日本邮政银行的管理者似乎更倾向于将资金投向海外。理论上,这可能会提供另一种传导机制:日本央行引入负利率的一个重要(但没有明说的)原因是希望此举令日元贬值。遗憾的是,就连这个政策也弄巧成拙:过去一个月,日元兑美元升值7%,这进而破坏了日本央行的可信度。

或许这是暂时的挫折。日本央行一些官员认为,还会出现其他传导渠道。尤其是,他们希望负利率的冲击将迫使日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在企业界和劳动力市场推行同样激进的结构性改革。尤其是,日本央行正敦促企业提高薪资,以抗击通缩并充分利用企业的闲置资金。

即便是这种想法似乎也是矛盾的。在负利率世界里,很难想象企业会突然觉得受到鼓舞而大幅加薪。看到政府债券收益率变为负值,已经让企业高管变得更担心(而不是放心)了。

当然,不可救药的乐观主义者可能会看到一缕希望之光:正如资产管理公司Wisdom Tree的杰斯珀•科尔(Jesper Koll)所指出的那样,政策失灵的事实仍有可能迫使安倍政府采取行动。科尔预计很快就会出现更多激进的财政举措,例如“向低收入养老金领取者发放现金”以及向母亲提供补助。他表示:“‘直升机撒钱’可能会变成一件真正有可能发生的事情。”

或许如此,但在安倍团队没有表态的情况下,令人悲哀的信息是,日本和日本央行似乎正陷入僵局。把这视为一个需要政府协调行动的教训吧。

日本央行副行长中曾宏(Hiroshi Nakaso)表示,这表明,在通缩出现时,货币政策本身“不是万能药”。不管怎样,全球投资者应该关注日本邮政银行的案例,然后知难而退。可怜的“渡边太太”也应如此。

译者/梁艳裳

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2016, 02:59:51 PM »




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德拉吉當心!負利率招來反效果,銀行放款利率恐升
回應(0) 人氣(368) 收藏(0) 2016/03/10 12:45
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-10 12:45:51 記者 郭妍希 報導
歐日央行妄想運用負利率讓經濟重振雄風,卻弄巧成拙,銀行獲利受損、可能藉口拉高放款利率來打平損失,金融環境恐因此緊縮,連帶影響到市場信心。一般而言,寬鬆貨幣政策通常都會激勵股市跳漲,但根據摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.,通稱小摩)觀察,在央行實施負利率之後,股價不漲反跌。
MarketWatch 9日報導,小摩統計顯示,歐元區、瑞士與日本在央行宣布負利率貨幣政策(negative interest-rates policies,簡稱NIRP)之後,股市分別下跌了4.6%、9.0%與6.7%。小摩證券策略師Emmanuel Cau表示,銀行本是帶動經濟成長的領頭羊,但負利率卻讓銀行獲利大受打擊,若銀行不願放款,歐元區經濟前景堪慮。
美銀美林更警告,受到負利率衝擊的銀行為了減少損失,也許會被迫調高放款利率,讓金融環境轉趨緊縮。

目前歐洲央行(ECB)的存款利率為負0.3%,預料ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi,見圖)會在今(10)日稍晚的貨幣政策會議上把利率進一步降至負0.4%。然而,歐元區通膨率在連續4個月呈現正值後,2月受到能源成本降低的影響而再次跌破零、僅剩負0.2%,遠低於ECB想要的2%以及市場原先預估的與1月持平(正0.3%)。
英國金融時報報導,Pictet分析師Frederik Ducrozet指出,歐元區2月份排除能源、食物、酒精與菸草的核心CPI意外年減30個基點至0.74%,創去(2015)年4月以來新低,是真正的利空。
雖然油價在2月中觸底反彈,可能帶動整體通膨上揚,但排除能源的影響後,2月的數據卻顯示核心CPI依舊直直落,顯示民眾遇到負利率只想把錢藏在家中,保險箱與大面額紙鈔變成熱門搶手貨,央行實施負利率並未得到想要的效果。也難怪小摩的Emmanuel Cau說,ECB想靠降息提振市場信心根本不可能,德拉吉若要刺激通膨,最好另尋策略,且不能影響到銀行獲利。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2016, 06:03:22 AM »



Calls grow for Fed to hike rates in March
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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Just weeks after Wall Street was preparing for the impending apocalypse comes talk that now would be a good time to raise interest rates.

There's virtually no chance of that happening — literally zero, according to the CME's FedTracker tool. The Fed, at its meeting next week, instead is likely to explain in its closely followed code that it won't be hiking its rate target as it believes current financial conditions warrant a pause.

However, a small but growing chorus on the Street believes the Fed is missing an opportunity. They contend that the volatility that hit markets from mid-2015 through the early part of February has past. Employment gains have continued, energy prices have bounced and the S&P 500 has jumped more than 7 percent during the period.

Read MoreSuddenly, the market sees growth—and rate hikes
So, the reasoning goes, the Fed should follow through on its expressed intentions to raise rates four times this year, starting with the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.

"All things considered, if the FOMC was starting with a blank slate next week, we suspect that officials would vote to raise interest rates," Capital Economics said in a note to clients this week. "But it is not and the Janet Yellen-led FOMC has repeatedly shown itself to be unusually hesitant in making policy changes and very reluctant to upset financial markets."

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress" in Capitol Hill, Washington February 11, 2016.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress" in Capitol Hill, Washington February 11, 2016.
The Fed finds itself in an interesting bind. While it is looking if not to tighten at least to begin normalizing interest rate policy, its global counterparts are loosening. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced fresh easing measures Thursday that at first lifted equity markets, which then fell after he said the latest measures cutting rates and stepping up quantitative easing likely would be it for now.

But the ECB is fighting a different battle, trying to stave off deflation while the Fed's critics worry about inflation getting out of control.

Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, also has been a voice calling for the Fed to hike now.
"The improvement in most economic variables (not to mention the uptick in core PCE inflation) we think adds validity to our contention that a no hike at the March FOMC would be inconsistent with the mantra of data dependency," he said in a recent note. "We get that when it comes to monetary policy, concerns about market stability and global headwinds have trumped the resilience in the U.S. economy. But even here, there has been some considerable improvement over recent weeks."

Read MoreWhy the market doesn't believe the Fed anymore
Upset in the market earlier in the year had taken expectations for a rate hike this year down to zero. At one point, traders in fed funds futures weren't fully pricing in a hike until early 2018. That has changed in recent days.
The first rate hike is completely priced in for December. Traders expect the funds rate at the March meeting to be little changed from its current level of 0.36 percent, then rising to 0.46 percent by the June meeting. The CME's FedWatch tool considers that June level to translate into a 42 percent chance of an FOMC move. The September meeting is the first with a better than 50 percent probability — 57 percent, with traders anticipating a 0.54 percent funds rate.

As things stand for the full year, the market and the Fed remain far apart in their respective rate projections. FOMC members anticipate a 1.4 percent funds rate; the market puts it closer to 0.63 percent.

While the Fed calls itself "data dependent" regarding its decision making (as Porcelli alluded), it seems every bit market dependent as well. That means the Fed is less likely to move more quickly, even though some market experts believe policymakers could justify the move. Fed doves have indicated a preference to let inflation overheat a bit before putting on the brakes.
"I would hike next week, but they're not going to," said Jim Paulsen, chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management. "Sentiment has really changed pretty dramatically in the last 30 to 40 days. The last two jobs reports and everything in between has been pretty good."

Like others in the hike-now camp, Paulsen said signs of inflation are growing even though worker paychecks may not show it.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index — the Fed's preferred measure — was up 1.7 percent in its latest reading, near the Fed's 2 percent target.

From a practical standpoint, Paulsen said that while he doesn't expect the Fed to hike rates, he is hoping for language in the post-FOMC meeting statement indicating that the day is drawing nearer.

"The underlying core costs acceleration is pretty striking to me. It certainly has come right on schedule with full employment and looks very much Phillips Curve-like," Paulsen said, referring to the popular measure used to determine where rates should be based on conditions. "Not that there's runaway inflation anywhere, but a zero interest rate structure seems kind of absurd."

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2016, 07:02:38 AM »



Thursday, 10 March 2016 | MYT 11:32 PM
ECB pulls out all stops with rate cuts, stimulus boost






 The European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. - EPA pic
The European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. - EPA pic
 
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FRANKFURT: The European Central Bank (ECB) unleashed some of it last remaining stimulus weapons on Thursday, cutting all three of its interest rates and expanding asset-buying to boost the economy and prevent ultra-low inflation becoming entrenched.

It slashed its inflation expectations for this year but also suggested that interest rates would go no lower.

In moves that briefly pushed the euro 1% down against the dollar, the ECB cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and increased monthly asset buys to 80 billion euros (RM365bil) from 60 billion euros (RM273.8bil), above expectations of a hike to 70-billion (RM319.6bil).

While the deposit rate was cut 10 basis points to -0.4%, the main refinancing rate was shaved to zero from 0.05% and its marginal lending rate -- used by banks to borrow from the ECB overnight -- fell to 0.25% from 0.3%.



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“Rates will stay low, very low, for a long period of time and well past the horizon of our purchases,” ECB president Mario Draghi, judged to have disappointed markets in December with measures below expectations, told a news conference.

Purchases are due to end in March next year.

He added, “From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further,”

The ECB said it would also start buying corporate debt and launch four new rounds of cheap loan packages, to be extended by banks to the real economy.

Slashing its 2016 inflation forecast from one percent to just 0.1%, the Bank said further rounds of ultra-cheap four-year loans to banks could include extra financial sweeteners for them to take up the offer to pass on to others.

“A bank that is very active in granting loans to the real economy can borrow more than a bank that concentrates on other activities,” Draghi noted.

Reactions

“Good news for Europe: Having delivered less than expected in December, the ECB returned to its usual form today and eased policy by a bit more than projected,” said Holger Schmieding at Berenberg bank.

But others were more critical, warning that such loose monetary policy risked creating asset price bubbles and removed any incentive for governments to reform their economies.

“What will happen if the global economic situation deteriorates sharply once more, requiring a strong monetary policy response? I do not anticipate this happening, but if it did, the ECB would have already shot most of its powder,” said Michael Menhart, chief economist at German reinsurer Munich Re.

Draghi answered such criticisms partly in German, arguing: “Suppose we had embraced the ‘nein zu allem’ (‘no to everything’) policy strategy? We deem that the counterfactual would have been a disastrous deflation.”

But he acknowledged the limitations of negative rates and said any future moves would likely have to focus on other, non-conventional measures.

“Does it mean that we can go as negative as we want without having any consequences on the banking system? The answer is no,” he said.

The ECB has little to show for the 700 billion euros (RM3.2 trillion) it has spent buying government bonds and other assets in the past year, as tumbling raw materials prices blunt the impact of its quantitative easing.

That raises the risk that people will lose faith in the bank’s commitment to its mandate. Inflation has been below the ECB’s nearly 2% target for three years and is likely to remain so for many more.

The ECB’s move came after the G20 group of the world’s major economies last month agreed they need to look beyond ultra-low interest rates and printing money to shake the global economy out of its torpor.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank are all set to meet next week.

While Europe’s growth prospects have held up relatively well on resilient domestic consumption, weak business and industrial sentiment indicators suggest it is facing increasing headwinds, particularly from slowing growth in China. - Reuters

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2016, 08:36:53 AM »




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《歐股》ECB救援砸鍋!資金行情曇花一現,泛歐指暴跌
回應(0) 人氣(413) 收藏(0) 2016/03/11 06:16
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-11 06:16:04 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
歐洲央行(ECB)搬出多管火箭救經濟,但歐股卻像雲宵飛車般上衝下洗,泛歐Stoxx 600指數周四在ECB宣讀政策後一度衝高2.5%,但尾盤賣壓傾巢而出,致使指數直線往下墜,終場重挫1.66%,成交量放大至高於30日均值三成。

有鑑於歐洲經濟長期低迷不振,ECB決定多管旗下,宣布再融資利率調降5個基點至零、存款利率降10個基點城為負0.4%,除此之外,每月購債規模從600億擴大至800億歐元,且將非銀行所發行之投資級公司債納入收購範圍,刺激力道之大,出乎市場意料之外。

雖然ECB這次顯然有備而來,但萬箭齊發的結果是可能衝過頭、力氣提前放盡,如果還是無法發揮預期效果,那麼央行未來可能落得無可用之兵的窘境。ECB行長德拉吉在會後記者會上暗示未來幾無降息可能,市場情緒也正是在此時翻轉,歐元由貶轉升,股市則是從雲端墜落。

儘管高盛成功猜中ECB將有驚喜,但對於市場反應卻是失準。在ECB開會前夕,高盛一再高喊放空歐元,甚至押歐元兌美元會跌破平價,但最終結果是歐元狂升1.6%,並連帶拖累汽車類股重挫。

泛歐19大上市類股幾乎全倒,銀行類股是少數沒被滅頂的族群,可能原因是ECB打算推出新一輪4年期定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO II),簡單的說就是要照顧銀行業所給予的超低利貸款,希望藉以抵銷負利率對銀行獲利的衝擊


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2016, 08:56:54 AM »



扩大QE规模 欧洲央行全线降息
头条 财经 天下  2016-03-11 07:14

 
(法兰克福10日讯)欧洲央行今日宣布全面下调三大利率,扩大月度量化宽松(QE)购买额至800亿欧元(约3551亿令吉),并启动第二轮长期再融资(TLTRO2)。
欧洲央行将主要再融资利率从0.05%下调至0.0%,市场预期为维持不变;隔夜贷款利率从0.3%,下调至0.25%,市场预期为维持不变;隔夜存款利率从负0.3%,下调至负0.4%,符合市场预期。
同时,欧洲央行将扩大QE范围,包括首次引入由欧元计价,非银行发行的投资级公司债,欧洲央行扩大月度QE购买额至800亿欧元,新措施将在3月16日生效;目前的QE规模为每月600亿欧元(约2664亿令吉)。
欧洲央行也启动新一轮TLTRO(长期再融资)操作,起始时间为2016年6月,持续4年。长期再融资操作的利率最低可以与存款利率一致。
德法西CPI均不及预期
在通胀持续萎靡不振的情况下,市场对于欧洲央行继续降息和宽松一直抱有预期。
最新通胀数据显示,欧元区2月消费物价指数(CPI)意外陷入萎缩。四大经济体中,德国、法国、西班牙三个国家的CPI均不及预期。
经济学家:比预期更激进
目前,欧元区19国的通胀水平已接近三年不及欧央行“接近且略低于2%”的通胀目标。
不过,本次全面下调三大利率还是超出了市场的预期。此前,分析员普遍预计欧央行仅会下调隔夜存款利率0.1%。
Pantheon Macroeconomics经济学家称,本次欧洲央行的决定比预期更为激进。

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2016, 11:17:31 AM »




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ECB搞歐洲財富重分配?德拉吉暗示負利率已到盡頭
回應(0) 人氣(71) 收藏(0) 2016/03/11 10:23
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-11 10:23:50 記者 賴宏昌 報導
歐洲央行(ECB)10日擴大負利率政策力道、擺明是要德國存款戶金援ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi;見圖)祖國?
德國商業日報(Handelsblatt)10日批評ECB負利率政策對經濟正面幫助不大、擺明了是在啟動二次世界大戰以來歐洲最大財富重分配。《明鏡週刊(Der Spiegel)》日前引述《法蘭克福廣訊報(Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)》報導,巴伐利亞銀行業協會(Bavarian Banking Association)建議成員銀行自行儲存現鈔以避開ECB的懲罰性「負利率政策(NIRP)」。
BusinessInsider報導,德意志銀行策略師David Bianco上個月以「大規模毀滅性武器(WMD)」來形容負利率。

德拉吉10日在記者會上坦承負利率效應不全然是正面的、的確可能衝擊到銀行體系。他說,負利率過去對歐元區銀行業整體而言是有幫助的、但並不代表永遠都會是如此。他說,隔夜存款利率之所以沒有採用分級制(意即仿效日本央行的三級制)、是因為不想讓外界認為ECB可以任意擴大負利率政策力道。德拉吉強調未來的重心將從利率工具轉移至其他非傳統工具。
歐洲央行(ECB)10日宣布,3月16日起將隔夜存款利率調降10個基點至-0.40%、基準再融資利率調降5個基點至史上最低的0%、邊際貸款利率自0.30%降至0.25%。此外,4月起月度購債規模將從原本的600億歐元擴大至800億歐元、購買資產種類將擴至歐元區非銀行投資等級企業債;6月起將啟動新一輪(總計將有4次)4年期定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO)。
瑞士央行(SNB)總裁Thommas Jordan 2月23日就已提出警告,非傳統貨幣政策措施為央行爭取到一定程度的運作空間。不過,無止境地使用這些非傳統工具不可能讓央行獲得想要看到的結果。例如,利率負值如果持續擴大的話、存款戶可能會選擇以現金(紙鈔)形式持有。
日本央行(BOJ)總裁黑田東彥3月7日在讀賣國際經濟協會(Yomiuri International Economic Society)發表演說時坦承,「量化質化寬鬆貨幣政策(QQE)+負利率政策(NIRP)」的確會對金融機構的獲利帶來負面效應。不過,他強調這樣的政策將可進一步壓低實質利率、令日本家庭與企業受益,最終將可完全擊退通貨緊縮。黑田預期全面使用QQE與NIRP將可讓BOJ盡早達成2%通膨目標、讓日本擺脫通縮。


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2016, 12:39:14 PM »



ECB MOVES UNEXPECTED BUT NOT BAD AT ALL
Our Reporter | March 12, 2016
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The European Central Bank’s stimulus package isn’t that bad after all.
Riskier assets from stocks to commodities and emerging-market currencies surged as traders warmed to an unprecedented policy boost from the ECB.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index headed for a fourth weekly gain and the highest closing level of the year, while developing-nation shares erased losses for 2016.
Credit markets rallied and the euro weakened. Oil led commodities to a three-month high, while Treasuries headed for a third weekly drop on speculation U.S. rates will rise this year.
Stocks and commodities continued a rebound from steep losses at the start of the year, with American equities cutting losses to less than 1.5 percent after falling to a 22-month low a month ago.
Investor sentiment in the aftermath of the ECB’s announcements, swinging from optimism the stimulus could boost growth to concern the measures would fall short, illustrates the tension in markets and challenges central banks face in mollifying them after seven years of unconventional policy maneuvers.
The ECB’s stimulus comes amid growing confidence that the U.S. economy has averted any threat of recession that’s boosted bets the Federal Reserve will stay on course for tighter policy, while China’s leaders have eased concern over their handling of the world’s second-largest economy.
The Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are all set to meet next week.
“Since the Feb. 11 lows in the equity market, global recessionary fears have receded, and that has been key,” Joe Quinlan, chief market strategists at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management, said by phone.
“What the ECB did yesterday helped that momentum and that train of thought become more ingrained, that they will do whatever it takes and then some for global economic expansions.”
Stocks
The S&P 500 climbed 1.5 percent to 2,019.11 in New York, erasing a loss for the week.
The index is poised for its highest close of the year and has trimmed a loss in 2016 to less than 1.5 percent.
Banks, energy and technology shares, which have paced the rebound in equities since mid-February, led gains on Friday

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2016, 02:25:22 PM »


Why Negative Rates Can't Stop the Coming Depression
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2016 19:00 -0500

Bond Creditors Hyperinflation Money Supply Purchasing Power Switzerland


 
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Submitted by Bill Bonner via InternationalMan.com,

Are you ready to pay to save?
 
Agora founder Bill Bonner explains why “negative interest rates” are spreading around the world…and could soon come to the U.S.
 
Like Doug Casey, Bill believes the worst is yet to come.
 
Bill says the coming financial collapse will be worse than the market crashes in 1987, 2000, and 2008. But this time, he says, it will affect everything from your portfolio...to your bank account...to the cash in your wallet.
About $7 trillion of sovereign bonds now yield less than nothing. Lenders give their money to governments…who swear up and down, no fingers crossed, that they’ll give them back less money sometime in the future.

Is that weird or what?

Into the Unknown

At least one reader didn’t think it was so odd. “You pay someone to store your boat or even to park your car,” he declared. “Why not pay someone to look out for your money?”

Ah…we thought he had a point. But then, we realized that the borrower isn’t looking out for your money; he’s taking it…and using it as he sees fit.



It is as though you gave a valet the keys to your car. Then he drove it to Vegas or sold it on eBay.

A borrower takes your money and uses it. He doesn’t just store it for you; that is what safe deposit boxes are for.

When you deposit your money in a bank, it’s the same thing. You are making a loan to the bank. The bank doesn’t store your money in a safe on your behalf; it uses it to balance its books.

If something goes wrong and you want your money back, you can just get in line behind the other creditors.

The future is always unknown. The bird in the bush could fly away. Or someone else could get him.

So, when you lend money, you need a little something to compensate you for the risk that the bird might get away.

A New Level of Absurdity

That’s why bonds pay income – to compensate you for that uncertainty.

Inflation, defaults, depression, war, and revolution all raise bond yields because all increase the odds that you won’t get your money back.

That’s why countries with much uncertainty – such as Venezuela – have higher interest rates than countries, such as Switzerland, where the future is probably going to be a lot like the past.

Venezuelan 10-year government bonds yield 11%. The Swiss 10-year government bond yields negative 0.3%.

The interest you earn on a bond is there to compensate you for the risk that you won’t get your money back. Or that the money you do get back when the bond matures will have less purchasing power than the money you used to buy the bond in the first place.

You never know. Maybe the company or government that issued the bond will go broke. Or maybe the Fed will cause hyperinflation. In that case, even if you get your money back, it won’t buy much.

With interest rates at zero, lenders must believe that the future carries neither risk. The bird in the bush isn’t going anywhere; they’re sure of it.

As unlikely as that is, negative interest rates take the absurdity to a new level.

A person who lends at a negative rate must believe that the future is more certain than the present.

In other words, he believes there will always be MORE birds in the bush.

Boneheaded Logic

The logic of lowering rates below zero is so boneheaded that only a PhD could believe it.

Economic growth rates are falling toward zero. And at zero, it normally doesn’t make sense for the business community – as a whole – to borrow. The growth it expects will be less than the interest it will have to pay.

That’s a big problem…

Because the Fed only has direct control over the roughly 20% of the overall money supply. This takes the form of cash in circulation and bank reserves. The other roughly 80% of the money supply comes from bank lending.

If people don’t borrow, money doesn’t appear. And if money doesn’t appear – or worse, if it disappears – people have less of it. They stop spending…the slowdown gets worse…prices fall…and pretty soon, you have a depression on your hands.

How to prevent it?

If you believe the myth that the feds can create real demand for bank lending by dropping interest below economic growth rates, then you, too, might believe in NIRP.

It’s all relative, you see. It’s like standing on a train platform. The train next to you backs up…and you feel you’re moving ahead.

Negative interest rates are like backing up. They give borrowers the illusion of forward motion…even if the economy is standing still.

Or something like that

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2016, 09:08:05 AM »



Deutsche Bank: Negative Rates Confirm The Failure Of Globalization
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2016 19:39 -0500

Bond Central Banks Deutsche Bank Excess Reserves Global Economy Monetary Policy Money Supply Money Velocity Unemployment


 
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Negative interest rates may or may not be a thing of the past (many thought that the ECB had learned its lesson, and then Vitor Constancio wrote a blog post showing that the ECB hasn't learned a ^ thing), but the confusion about their significance remains. Here is Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam explaining how, among many other things including why Europe will need to "tax" cash before this final Keynesian experiment is finally over, negative rates are merely the logical failure of globalization.

Misconceptions about negative rates

Understanding how negative rates may or may not help economic growth is much more complex than most central bankers and investors probably appreciate. Ultimately the confusion resides around differences in view on the theory of money. In a classical world, money supply multiplied by a constant velocity of circulation equates to nominal growth. In a Keynesian world, velocity is not necessarily constant – specifically for Keynes, there is a money demand function (liquidity preference) and therefore a theory of interest that allows for a liquidity trap whereby increasing money supply does not lead to higher nominal growth as the increase in money is hoarded. The interest rate (or inverse of the price of bonds) becomes sticky because at low rates, for infinitesimal expectations of any further rise in bond prices and a further fall in interest rates, demand for money tends to infinity. In Gesell’s world money supply itself becomes inversely correlated with velocity of circulation due to money characteristics being superior to goods (or commodities). There are costs to storage that money does not have and so interest on money capital sets a bar to interest on real capital that produces goods. This is similar to Keynes’ concept of the marginal efficiency of capital schedule being separate from the interest rate. For Gesell the product of money and velocity is effective demand (nominal growth) but because of money capital’s superiority to real capital, if money supply expands it comes at the expense of velocity. The new money supply is hoarded because as interest rates fall, expected returns on capital also fall through oversupply – for economic agents goods remain unattractive to money. The demand for money thus rises as velocity slows. This is simply a deflation spiral, consumers delaying purchases of goods, hoarding money, expecting further falls in goods prices before they are willing to part with their money.

For an economy that suffers from deficient demand, lowering interest rates doesn’t work if it simply lowers expected returns on real capital through oversupply. The shale boom in the US is blamed on cheap money. As Gesell also argued, where Marx was wrong but Proudhon was right, is that to destroy capitalism you don’t need workers to strike and close the capitalists’ factories; instead the workers should organize and build another factory next to the capitalists. The means of the production are nothing more than capitalized labor. Oversupply destroys capitalism in a natural way. In this way the demise of positive interest rates may be nothing more than the global economy reacting to a chronic oversupply of goods through the impact of globalization including the opening up of formerly closed economies as well as ongoing technological progress.

Of course raising rates isn’t a solution. If effective demand is deficient due to money hoarding of new money supply and a decline in velocity when goods supply is expanding, in a rising rate environment, demand is deficient with money supply itself falling regardless of any change in velocity. Interest on real capital may rise, even with goods prices stable eventually recovering but at the cost of huge unemployment and social distress. The difference can be thought of as the aggregate demand curve shifting inwards relative to supply and supply still exceeding demand when monetary conditions are too tight versus a falling interest environment whereby the aggregate supply curve moves out relative to demand such that the curves don’t intersect at prices above zero – the latter reflecting an implied rising real money interest rate.

In a Keynesian world of deficient demand, the burden is on fiscal policy to restore demand. Monetary policy simply won’t work if there is a liquidity trap and demand for cash is infinite. Interest rates cannot be reduced any further to stimulate demand. (In Gesell’s terminology the product of velocity and money supply i.e. effective demand keeps falling). In Gesell’s world money itself needs to be taxed to prevent hoarding and to equalize the worth of money to goods. If cash is taxed (and he suggested at the annual tax rate might be 5.2 percent, according to Keynes) then velocity is stabilized, demand for money falls and goods demand recovers. The tendency to oversupply however in an economy unfettered by “privilege” effectively implies that interest rates in equilibrium may converge to zero. Taxing of money specifically is to deal with an ex ante effective demand deficiency.

Europe’s long time obsession with negative rates, to quote our present day Fischer, is fair but misleading in the context of how negative interest rates are being applied. The combination of penalty rates on banks’ excess reserves and QE is designed at one level to expand private sector credit. This if anything will promote supply of goods. If supply creates its own demand and/or if Keynesian investment accelerator models are valid, then they may well be successful in restoring a Keynesian deficient demand problem.

This is essentially the same as saying there is no liquidity trap. (If we think of the inverse bond price on the vertical axis as being a private sector asset price, then a large price rise can be achieved for a relatively small amount of money expansion). But it presupposes that there is deficient loan demand due to high money capital interest rates rather than due to too low real capital expected returns. The risk is that QE itself is simply new money being hoarded on the demand side so that money velocity falls and effective demand remains weak. Falling interest rates may well promote new loan demand and increase supply but only in a deflationary spiral of further falls in expected capital returns and the perceived need for still lower money interest rates. If Gesell is correct, it is essential to tax money itself which means not just retail deposits but cash in circulation. Then velocity would stabilize with effective demand as households would be willing to own goods rather than money. It is conceivable that the Europeans are heading in this direction and maybe it will be worse before it gets better. Or maybe there is still time for the Keynesian mechanism to prove that we are not in a liquidity trap.

* * *

Here is our far simpler explanation of what Konstam just said, and why DB would much prefer more QE over NIRP: QE takes away the liquidity preference choice out of the hands of the consumers, and puts it into the hands of central bankers, who through asset purchases push up asset prices even if it does so by explicitly devaluing the currency of price measurement; it also means that the failure of NIRP is - by definition - a failure of central banking, and if and when the central bank backstop of any (make that all) asset class - i.e., Q.E., is pulled away, that asset (make that all) will crash. The only asset that does not have a central bank backstop (in fact, central banks are actively pushing it lower)? Gold.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2016, 09:12:41 AM »



若经济增长不到4% 下半年或降息0.25%
财经新闻 财经  2016-03-13 08:43

 


(吉隆坡12日讯)尽管国家银行维持隔夜政策利率(OPR)不变,但分析员认为,若经济增长低于4%,国行仍可能在下半年降息0.25%。
国行周三在货币政策会议上维持3.25%的利率和3.5%的法定储备率(SRR)不变。
国行在今年初时将法定储备率从原本的4%下修至3.5%,以确保国内金融体系拥有足够流通率。
马银行投行研究分析员指出,国行在货币政策声明中的立场仍维持鸽派,因评估显示在去年录得5%的增长后,今年的经济增长会缓和。
尽管今年的通胀或会走高,不过国行认为上涨风险能舒缓,因成本因素如管制品价格调整和令吉疲弱的兑换率,受到能源和商品价格走低,以及温和的全球通胀率缓冲。
马银行投行研究估计今年的利率将介于3%至3.25%,若经济增长跌低于国行的4%至6%舒适水平下,或会在下半年将利率调低0.25%。
通胀率超越宽容水平
同时,我国1月的通胀率按年攀升3.5%,该投行研究认为已超越国行的2%至3%宽容水平,因此,利率决策将胥视经济数据,包括影响经济增长和通胀风险平衡的外围发展。
至于法定储备率会否进一步下调,也有赖于市场流通率和市场利率波动

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2016, 02:17:02 PM »



JAPAN’S NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ARE A BIG NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS
Our Reporter | March 14, 2016
download (1)
From: Toru Fujioka and James Mayger

The Bank of Japan shocked markets in January with negative rates. The policy had immediate effects on financial markets, even before it actually started on February 16.
Although most analysts don’t expect a change on Tuesday, they are expecting the central bank eventually to cut the rate further. Here’s a look at some effects of negative rates:
About 70 percent of government bonds have a yield of zero or below, meaning investors are paying to hold the debt. Pushing the yield curve down to make borrowing less costly and to encourage lending is the aim of the new policy, according to Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. However, those actions are hurting the bond market, with 69 percent of traders in February saying market function has declined compared with three months ago, according to a BOJ survey.
A 10-year, fixed-rate home loan carried a 0.8 percent rate last week, down from 1.05 percent before the introduction of the negative rate, according to a speech by Kuroda. Japan’s three biggest banks cut their deposit rate to a record low of 0.001 percent, meaning you receive 10 yen (9 cents) in income on a deposit of 1 million yen.
Money Market Industry Dies
All 11 companies running money-market funds stopped accepting new investments, citing the BOJ stimulus. They plan to return money to investors, the Nikkei newspaper reported, and money from the funds is moving to deposits, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Deposit returns are still positive, if negligible.

The new negative rate policy means that banks and other financial institutions are charged a fee by the BOJ on some of the money they keep at the central bank. Along with lowering lending margins, this new charge on banks is hurting their profit expectations, causing stock price declines

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2016, 02:18:02 PM »



RIFT IN TOKYO, AS ABE DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES
Our Reporter | March 14, 2016
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TOKYO, March 14 Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have been scurrying to commercial banks to explain and apologise for its surprise adoption of negative interest rates in January, while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has distanced himself from a decision that is proving unpopular with the public.

Some officials close to the premier say it could cause a rift in his once close relationship with BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose radical stimulus measures have so far failed to lift Japan clear of two decades of deflation and stagnation.

A government press relations official said there was nothing to add beyond remarks made publicly by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga that no such rift exists. A BOJ spokesman declined to comment.

With the economy shrinking again and prices flat, Abe has already announced he will set up a panel to consider fresh budget spending to provide the stimulus that monetary policy has struggled to achieve.

The controversy over the negative rates move, which unlike his previous eye-catching policy steps was not welcomed by Japan’s stock market, comes even as Kuroda is on the verge of gaining greater control of the bank’s nine-member board. Two sceptics of his stimulus programme are stepping down in the coming months.

The diminishing returns from his preferred modus operandi of market-shocking measures will leave him little option but to revert to the drip-feed easing he derided in his predecessor Masaaki Shirakawa if inflation fails to pick up, some analysts say.

“Given the confusion caused by the January move, I don’t think the BOJ will be able to cut rates again for the time being,” said Hideo Kumano, a former BOJ official who is now chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“The BOJ may instead expand asset purchases in small instalments. That would be returning to the incremental approach of easing Kuroda dismissed in the past as ineffective.” (Reuters)

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2016, 04:21:29 PM »




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字級設定: 小 中 大 特
美元將升15%、日圓跟風?大摩抱現金 逢彈減新興持股
回應(0) 人氣(1084) 收藏(0) 2016/03/14 13:03
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-14 13:03:23 記者 郭妍希 報導
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley,通稱大摩)策略師Jonathan Garner在去(2015)年5月順利躲過6月中國A股股災,之後又在去年11月底唱衰日本,逃過日經225指數在12月1日至2月12日期間重挫逾24%的命運!(相關新聞見此)
現在,新興市場出現反彈,以美元計價的指數從2月觸底反彈以來,已上漲了15%,看多想追的人蠢蠢欲動。不過,barron`s.com 13日報導,Garner要大家沉住氣,因為1月底至2月初恐怕並非亞洲/新興市場本波空頭循環的底部,熊還沒離開,建議大家利用本波反彈出脫持股、而不是跟著股價追高。
整體來看,大摩團隊預估新興市場2016年GDP成長率僅有4.0%、略低於2015年,日本更只剩下0.6%,而中國也僅有6.5%成長率。大摩外匯團隊並預期,美元、日圓可能繼續走強,估計2016年底美元兌日圓將下探106、比之前預估的115還要低。

大摩分析師Matthew Hornbach則指出,成長預期趨緩、政治風險增加,已促使該證券改變看多立場、決定降低對全球股市的曝險度。該證券聲稱已加碼現金、美國公債和日本公債(JGB),同時看多日圓、美元,看壞亞洲(除日本外)貨幣。
Hornbach認為,各國央行手邊的貨幣工具不但愈來愈少、成效也日益不彰,最新實施的負利率政策更是弊大於利,央行手邊缺少工具,是大摩比2013年、2014年更加看空股市的原因之一。
由於各國政策方向分歧,再加上新興國家得償還美元計價外債、美元牛市通常會以超漲收場等因素,大摩看好美元在超漲前還有10-15%的升值空間,這也是該證券對新興市場、原物料價格看法保守的主因。另外,日圓則有望受避險需求推動,預估歐元兌日圓到2017年第1季為止可能會貶值16%。
MarketWatch曾於2月15日報導,根據J.P.摩根證券(通稱小摩)策略師Mislav Matejka發表的研究報告,部分技術指標顯示,股市短期內有遭超賣的跡象,近期有反彈的機會,且力道將比1月底那波6-8%的行情還要強勢且持久。報告舉出的其中一項訊號是,美國散戶投資人協會(The American Association of Individual Investors;AAII)的多空指標已下滑至負29點,創2031年4月以來新低。
不過,Matejka也建議投資人把這次反彈視為出售股票的機會,因為2016年股市展望仍然保守、預估下半年可能會進一步走弱。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2016, 04:24:11 PM »



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負利率恐持續數年,拉詹、貝萊德執行長擔心反效果
回應(0) 人氣(639) 收藏(0) 2016/03/14 10:52
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-14 10:52:36 記者 賴宏昌 報導
economynext.com報導,少數領先對2008年金融危機提出預警、曾任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家的印度央行總裁拉詹(Raghuram Rajan;見圖)12日指出,如果日趨激進的貨幣政策被大眾解讀為災難即將降臨,消費將不增反減。他說,通貨緊縮最大問題在於實質債務負擔將會變得更加沉重、因此解決方式應該是針對債務、而非創造出新的通膨。
英國金融時報12日報導,貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)執行長(CEO)芬克(Laurence D. Fink)在墨西哥銀行業年會受訪時指出,負利率現象恐將持續數年、它對退休計畫的衝擊可能是當前全球面臨的最大問題。他提到,德國八成退休儲蓄是投入債券市場、而非股市。芬克形容退休是一個比醫療健保還要大的問題。
芬克指出,歐洲央行(ECB)、日本央行(BOJ)更為積極的動作讓聯準會(FED)現在陷入進退兩難的局面、可能迫使它放慢升息速度,甚至6月份都不一定會調高利率。他還提到,貨幣政策對資本市場有利,但對飽受擠壓的中產階級來說則是沒有幫助,這也是正是美國總統選戰會出現非主流候選人崛起以及英國脫歐(Breixt)勢力興起的主因。

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank AG)執行長John Cryan 2日表示,銀行業無力吸收超額存款準備金利率(IOER)負值進一步擴大所造成的損失。Thomson Reuters報導,芬克11日明確表示,負利率是一項糟糕的政策,摧毀退休儲蓄的同時也壓抑了消費。他還提到歐洲經濟表面上比過去幾年好、但歐洲銀行體系所面臨的風險一直都沒有間斷過。芬克認為英國不太可能會脫歐。
提到油價、芬克認為將會在更長的時間內處於低檔,60美元以上或30美元以下都不會持續太久。他並且提到,中國可能是當前全球金融市場的最大障礙。貝萊德目前是全球最大投資管理公司。
當記者提到歐元區政府與民間已有過多負債、導致貨幣傳導很難觸及實體經濟,加上國際清算銀行(BIS)質疑央行的政策工具效力遞減,ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)10日回應表示,最新貨幣措施是為了要引導人們減債、而非增加負債。他說,如果ECB沒有作為,通貨緊縮將會增加債務的實質負擔。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2016, 02:43:35 PM »



Blackrock’s Koesterich: Markets face headwinds from central banks
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
4 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Some major central banks are turning to negative interest rates to kick start their economies, but those measures pose headwinds to growth, Blackrock's Chief Investment Officer Russ Koesterich told CNBC's "Rundown".

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are among central banks that have effectively started charging commercial lenders for the privilege of parking their funds in recent years, marking one of the most dramatic steps yet in policy efforts to fuel growth after years of lackluster economic activity.

The aim was to encourage banks to lend more by making it costlier to just place funds with central banks but it isn't clear whether the policies have had the intended effect.
"The tool that many central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, have come to rely on is proving to come with some serious baggage," Koesterich said. "It exerts a tax on the banking system and it's very hard to accelerate an economy when the banking sector is struggling."

The BOJ blindsided global financial markets on January 29 by adopting negative interest rates for the first time, amid pressure to revive growth in the world's third-largest economy as it struggled to create inflation. The move aims to motivate banks to both lower lending rates and lend more by charging banks to hold their reserves with the central bank.


Manulife Asset: Negative rates 'just a horrible policy’
That followed moves by the ECB, starting in 2014, to turn to negative interest rates. Last week, the ECB went deeper into negative territory, cutting its main refinancing rate to 0.0 percent and its deposit rate to negative 0.4 percent.

Central banks in Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland have also adopted negative rate policies.

That comes as quantitative easing (QE) programs -- which were introduced amid the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 to allow central banks to purchase assets such as government bonds to push investors into riskier assets -- appear to be losing their ability to awe markets, Koesterich said.

"This many years into the advent of QE with valuations higher in many countries, particularly the United States and Europe, we're finding that it's more difficult for the central banks to reflate asset prices," he said. "That means the wealth channel by which some of the earlier manifestations of QE worked is proving less effective than it was in past years."

But that hasn't kept Blackrock from investing in equity markets.

"We still think that over the long term -- and I think that's a key qualifier -- equities represent better value than bonds," he said. But he noted that while bonds are expensive, they act as a hedge against volatility in portfolios.

He added that investors should consider adding a bit of gold, which acts as a safe haven asset, to their portfolios to mitigate market volatility.

Men look an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Beijing, China, January 5, 2016.
Has the tide turned for emerging market flows?
Outside of the U.S., Koesterich is positive on Japan's shares, citing solid valuations.

He's also positive on emerging markets.

"This is an asset class that many people have abandoned over the last five years. It's consistently underperformed. There are structural issues. Investors are understandably concerned about China," he said. "But that long period of underperformance has left many emerging markets actually quite cheap," he noted, adding that this is a reasonable time to start adding allocation to the segment.

Among emerging markets, Koesterich particularly likes Mexico and India, citing long term structural reforms in those markets

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2016, 10:02:25 AM »




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歐負利率到此為止=德拉吉認敗、全球貨幣戰將停火?
回應(0) 人氣(56) 收藏(0) 2016/03/16 09:11
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-16 09:11:01 記者 陳苓 報導
歐洲央行(ECB)總裁德拉吉重砲救援,但是暗示負利率到此為止,不會繼續下砍。部分人士解讀,此舉意味德拉吉認敗,不會進一步降息促貶歐元,將改以提振內需刺激經濟,全球貨幣戰有望停火。
CNBC 15日評論文章稱,德拉吉10日下砍存款利率至負0.40%,同時暗示不會繼續降息,當日歐元因此大漲1.55%。太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)德國資產組合管理主管Andrew Bosomworth認為,這表示歐央打算靠國內信貸提振成長,不會繼續促貶歐元。Allianz Global Investors歐洲證券投資長Neil Dwane也說,全球貨幣戰可能暫時停火。或許歐洲和日本在20國會議(G20)私下達成共識,不再競貶,改以品質和創新促進經濟成長。
央行不再競貶,歐元走勢將持穩。高盛對歐元走勢較為悲觀,該行的歐元和美元平價預期或許會再次落空。高盛表示,近期內歐元下行的風險報酬不具說服力,但是該行仍堅持先前預估,稱歐元和美元將跌破平價,12個月後貶至0.95兌1美元。此外,中國可能會跟進,不再貶值人民幣。Dwane表示,他們一直認定中國不會讓人幣重貶。

與此同時,德拉吉到此為止的態度,也是要讓反對者安心。不少銀行坦承,無法在負利率環境下管理銀行。歐央出招,接下來就看日本央行(BOJ)、美國聯準會(FED)如何接招,要是貨幣戰真的暫停,市場趨勢將有大反轉。
嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,台北時間16日上午9點09分,歐元兌美元貶值0.05%、報1.1104。今年迄今歐元兌美元升值2.15%。
economynext.com報導,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank AG)執行長John Cryan 2日表示,銀行業無力吸收超額存款準備金利率(IOER)負值進一步擴大所造成的損失。Thomson Reuters報導,貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)執行長(CEO)芬克(Laurence D. Fink)11日明確表示,負利率是一項糟糕的政策,摧毀退休儲蓄的同時也壓抑了消費。他還提到歐洲經濟表面上比過去幾年好、但歐洲銀行體系所面臨的風險一直都沒有間斷過。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #31 on: March 16, 2016, 10:06:46 AM »



2016年03月16日 07:02 AM
日本央行将利率维持在-0.1%
英国《金融时报》 罗宾•哈丁 东京报道
 

日本央行(BoJ)下调了对本国经济的预期,但仍将利率维持在-0.1%水平,该行正在设法消除公众对1月份利率突然迈入负值区域的困惑。

在宣布一系列旨在减少负利率在金融系统引发非预期性后果的政策微调后,日本央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)不得不为这一政策辩护。

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日本央行的言论暗示了今年晚些时候出台更多宽松政策的可能性很高,但也显示出,负利率的连锁反应正给欧洲央行(ECB)及其他央行在新激进政策工具的使用上带来实际限制。

“我的确看到了日本央行正在软化其负利率立场的迹象,”汇丰(HSBC)驻香港经济学家Izumi Devalier说,“我认为,他们被自己收到的负面反馈的数量吓到了。”


她补充说:“我无法排除进一步降息的可能,但这强调了一点,他们希望给这一政策更多一点时间发挥作用,”并称,日本央行很可能在下月进一步推出宽松措施。

除了维持利率不变,日本央行将继续每年购买80万亿日元(合7080亿美元)资产的计划。

1月份开始实施的负利率政策拖累银行股下跌,并促使金融业的工会放弃他们的加薪要求,这与日本央行想要推高通胀的目标背道而驰。

1月份的这一政策也没有大大压低日元汇率,因为对日元的避险需求占了上风。昨日日本央行公布利率决定后,日元兑美元汇率上升,从1美元兑113.8日元上升到兑113日元。

黑田东彦认为该政策正在按预期发挥作用。他在记者会上表示:“自从我们引入负利率,短期和长期债券收益率下跌,而且这显然已带动抵押贷款和贷款利率下降,因此在利率方面的影响已经很明显。我预计这种影响将蔓延到物价和实体经济。”

译者/何黎

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2016, 08:00:23 PM »




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迎戰負利率!全球最大再保公司增加黃金、現鈔儲備
回應(0) 人氣(507) 收藏(0) 2016/03/17 15:50
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-17 15:50:17 記者 賴宏昌 報導
Thomson Reuters報導,全球最大再保險公司慕尼黑再保(Munich Re)16日表示,面對歐洲央行(ECB)的懲罰性「負利率政策(NIRP)」,公司已增加黃金、現鈔的存放數量。慕尼黑再保執行長Nikolaus von Bomhard 16日在記者會上表示,公司金庫儲放黃金已有一段時間、最近還增加了1千萬歐元的等值現鈔。他說,慕尼黑再保的另類投資策略雖還在初期測試階段,但這已凸顯出當前情勢的嚴重性。
慕尼黑再保(Munich Re)16日表示,今年純益預估將介於23-28億歐元(中間值為25.5億歐元)、低於2015年的31億歐元。英國金融時報報導,慕尼黑再保執行長Nikolaus von Bomhard表示,鑑於產業競爭激烈、利率持續走低,上述獲利目標完成難度頗高。
《明鏡週刊(Der Spiegel)》引述《法蘭克福廣訊報(Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)》報導,巴伐利亞銀行業協會(Bavarian Banking Association)建議成員銀行自行儲存現鈔以避開負利率政策。

ECB在2014年6月推出NIRP、並於同年9月調整為-0.2%,2015年12月3日宣布進一步調整為-0.3%;今年3月16日起再將隔夜存款利率調降10個基點至-0.40%。

ECB官網11日公布,副總裁Vitor Constancio指出,ECB職員透過多種模式推算後發現,要不是歐央積極採取寬鬆貨幣政策,2015年歐元區通膨將會是-0.33%左右、2016年預估也將會明顯低於零軸,也就是說自去年起歐元區將持續處於通縮狀態。
Constancio坦承所有政策都有其極限、特別是負存款準備金率。不過,他強調為了要讓通膨正常化、歐元區迫切需要透過所有可以動用的政策來拉高經濟成長率。
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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2016, 08:06:10 PM »



World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2016 21:38 -0400

Berkshire Hathaway Deutsche Bank European Central Bank Institutional Investors Reuters


 
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The world’s second-largest reinsurer, German Munich Re which is roughly twice the size of Berkshire Hathaway Re, is boosting its gold reserves and buying gold in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it announced today.

As caught by Mark O'Byrne at GoldCore and reported by Thomson Reuters this afternoon, the world’s largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies.

Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference.



Nikolaus von Bomhard in Munich, on March 16, AFP via Getty Images



 

“We are just trying it out, but you can see how serious the situation is,” von Bomhard said.

The ECB last week cut its main interest rate to zero and dropped the rate on its deposit facility to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, increasing the amount banks are charged to deposit funds with the central bank.

Munich Re is one of the largest reinsurance companies in the world - It oversees €231 billion in investments. A small 3% allocation to gold would equate to buying gold worth €8.19 billion. At the current spot price of €1,130 per ounce that would equate to 7.2 million ounces or 225.4 tonnes of gold bullion

The news is interesting and we believe that other institutions will follow in their footsteps and diversify into gold in order to protect themselves from negative yields. We have not heard of any other non central bank institutions diversifying into gold but it stands to reason that a small percentage will follow in Munich Res footsteps.

* * *

It isn''t just gold: the German company confirms that when rates turn negative enough, physical cash will be increasingly more valuable.

As Bloomberg reports, the German company will store at least 10 million euros ($11 million) in two currencies so it won’t have to pay for the right to access the money at short notice, von Bomhard said at a press conference in Munich on Wednesday. “We will also observe what others are doing to avoid paying negative interest rates,” he said.

Institutional investors including insurers, savings banks and pension funds are debating whether it may be worth bearing the insurance and logistics costs of holding physical cash as overnight deposit rates fall deeper below zero and negative yields dent investment returns. The ECB last week cut the rate on its deposit facility, which banks use to park excess funds, to minus 0.4 percent.
“This may well become a mass phenomenon once interest rates are low enough -- the only question will be where that exact point is,” said Christoph Kaserer, a professor of finance at the Technische Universitaet in Munich. “For large institutions, that may be the case sooner rather than later. The ECB will react with countermeasures, such as limiting cash.”

As Bloomberg adds, Munich Re’s strategy, if followed by others, could undermine the ECB’s policy of imposing a sub-zero deposit rate to push down market credit costs and spur lending. Cash hoarding threatens to disrupt the transmission of that policy to the real economy.

Munich Re, which oversees a total of 231 billion euros in investments, wants to test how practical it would be to store banknotes, having already kept some of its gold in vaults, von Bomhard said. This comes at a time when consumers are increasingly using credit cards and electronic banking to pay for transactions. Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer John Cryan has predicted the disappearance of physical cash within a decade.
 
“This shows the difficulties that the ECB is facing in its efforts to stimulate the real economy,” said Andreas Oehler, a professor of finance at Bamberg University in Bavaria. “Charging negative rates on overnight liquidity doesn’t stimulate longer-term lending. All it does is make companies’ and institutions’ payment transactions more expensive.”
Incidentally, once the Fed's infatuation with playing central planning doctor fizzles as the economy relapses into an accelerating downward spiral, negative rates are coming to the US next, as such the real-time experiments of how to evade a repressive monetary regime such as those conducted by the Munich Re CEO will be particularly useful to those who want to protect their assets once NIRP crosses the Atlantic.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2016, 10:02:33 PM »


World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2016 21:38 -0400

Berkshire Hathaway Deutsche Bank European Central Bank Institutional Investors Reuters


 
inShare
40
 
The world’s second-largest reinsurer, German Munich Re which is roughly twice the size of Berkshire Hathaway Re, is boosting its gold reserves and buying gold in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it announced today.

As caught by Mark O'Byrne at GoldCore and reported by Thomson Reuters this afternoon, the world’s largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies.

Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference.



Nikolaus von Bomhard in Munich, on March 16, AFP via Getty Images



 

“We are just trying it out, but you can see how serious the situation is,” von Bomhard said.

The ECB last week cut its main interest rate to zero and dropped the rate on its deposit facility to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, increasing the amount banks are charged to deposit funds with the central bank.

Munich Re is one of the largest reinsurance companies in the world - It oversees €231 billion in investments. A small 3% allocation to gold would equate to buying gold worth €8.19 billion. At the current spot price of €1,130 per ounce that would equate to 7.2 million ounces or 225.4 tonnes of gold bullion

The news is interesting and we believe that other institutions will follow in their footsteps and diversify into gold in order to protect themselves from negative yields. We have not heard of any other non central bank institutions diversifying into gold but it stands to reason that a small percentage will follow in Munich Res footsteps.

* * *

It isn''t just gold: the German company confirms that when rates turn negative enough, physical cash will be increasingly more valuable.

As Bloomberg reports, the German company will store at least 10 million euros ($11 million) in two currencies so it won’t have to pay for the right to access the money at short notice, von Bomhard said at a press conference in Munich on Wednesday. “We will also observe what others are doing to avoid paying negative interest rates,” he said.

Institutional investors including insurers, savings banks and pension funds are debating whether it may be worth bearing the insurance and logistics costs of holding physical cash as overnight deposit rates fall deeper below zero and negative yields dent investment returns. The ECB last week cut the rate on its deposit facility, which banks use to park excess funds, to minus 0.4 percent.

“This may well become a mass phenomenon once interest rates are low enough -- the only question will be where that exact point is,” said Christoph Kaserer, a professor of finance at the Technische Universitaet in Munich. “For large institutions, that may be the case sooner rather than later. The ECB will react with countermeasures, such as limiting cash.”

As Bloomberg adds, Munich Re’s strategy, if followed by others, could undermine the ECB’s policy of imposing a sub-zero deposit rate to push down market credit costs and spur lending. Cash hoarding threatens to disrupt the transmission of that policy to the real economy.

Munich Re, which oversees a total of 231 billion euros in investments, wants to test how practical it would be to store banknotes, having already kept some of its gold in vaults, von Bomhard said. This comes at a time when consumers are increasingly using credit cards and electronic banking to pay for transactions. Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer John Cryan has predicted the disappearance of physical cash within a decade.
 
“This shows the difficulties that the ECB is facing in its efforts to stimulate the real economy,” said Andreas Oehler, a professor of finance at Bamberg University in Bavaria. “Charging negative rates on overnight liquidity doesn’t stimulate longer-term lending. All it does is make companies’ and institutions’ payment transactions more expensive.”
Incidentally, once the Fed's infatuation with playing central planning doctor fizzles as the economy relapses into an accelerating downward spiral, negative rates are coming to the US next, as such the real-time experiments of how to evade a repressive monetary regime such as those conducted by the Munich Re CEO will be particularly useful to those who want to protect their assets once NIRP crosses the Atlantic.


Interesting.  Instead of lending the money to stimulate the economy, the banks or insurance companies are still hoarding cash but in alternate forms, like gold.  Soon it may also be other commdities, like silver, mercury etc.
Bought DLady in 1993  for RM 6,800. Now worth RM 224,000, excluding dividends.  Next doubling RM 448,000 !!!  This is the wonder of compounding.

Buy and hold quality companies for the long haul, and you will likely be handsomely rewarded for that patience.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2016, 02:14:37 PM »




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負利率凸顯央行技窮,量化失敗恐成最大尾部風險
回應(0) 人氣(254) 收藏(0) 2016/03/18 12:47
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-18 12:47:50 記者 賴宏昌 報導
英國金融時報報導,挪威央行無視房市泡沫風險、17日將關鍵政策利率調降一碼(25個基點)至史上最低的0.5%。挪威央行總裁Oystein Olsen表示,依照目前的展望來看,關鍵政策利率還有進一步下調的可能性。他強調,一旦出現新的重大衝擊,挪威可能會跟隨瑞典、丹麥的腳步將利率調降至負值。Olsen上個月在受訪時表示負利率的效益目前尚無定論,但坦承其傳導機制確實是比較差。
華爾街日報17日報導,過去多數主要央行即便只是拋出風向球、也能對匯市產生重大影響。例如,歐洲央行(ECB)總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)2012年7月的「不計代價(whatever it takes)」宣示讓深陷歐債危機的歐元在6個月升值了11%。2014年6月當ECB宣布存款準備金率降至負值時、歐元隨之大幅走貶。不過,去年12月以及本月進一步擴大負利率政策力道後歐元卻是不貶反升!
德意志銀行G10外匯策略部主管Alan Ruskin指出,匯市已不再隨ECB起舞。RBS證券匯率策略師Brian Daingerfield也表示,市場越來越擔心央行正在測試他們的政策底線。他說,央行每一次從工具箱拿出一件工具、箱內的數量就跟著少一件。

《Euro Insight》15日報導,美銀美林調查結果顯示,基金經理人將「量化失敗(Quantitative failure)」視為當前最大尾部風險。所謂的量化失敗是指央行可能無力穩定市場並且讓經濟重拾活力。
霸榮部落格17日報導,東京證交所數據顯示,外資在3月第二週賣超日股金額達到1.2兆日圓、超越1987年10月第三週(黑色星期一)創下史上最高紀錄。外資已連續10週賣超日股、累計金額達到4.3兆日圓。
日本工會總聯合會(RENGO)會長Nobuaki Koga曾在2014年底接受英國金融時報訪問。他當時指出,日本政府年金投資基金(Government Pension Investment Fund;GPIF)的資金是屬於勞動階級跟公會的,如果股市投資出現重大虧損、誰能扛起責任?
日經225指數2月12日收盤位置(14,952.61點)創2014年10月21日以來新低,3月18日早盤下跌1.28%、暫收16,719.28點。
嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,截至台北時間18日下午12時32分為止,美元兌日圓貶值0.06至111.36;開盤迄今最低跌至110.78、逼近17日盤中最低點(110.63、創2014年10月31日以來新低)。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2016, 06:16:56 AM »



Bernanke: Monetary policy 'reaching its limits'
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
3 Hours Ago
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Monetary policy in the United States and other developed countries "is reaching its limits," but the Federal Reserve has not yet run out of responses to a potential slowdown, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote Friday.

In a blog post for the Brookings Institution, he argued a "balanced monetary-fiscal response" would better boost the economy than monetary tools alone. Bernanke assessed policy options for the Fed, saying negative interest rates hold "modest benefits" but are unlikely.

"I assess the probability that this tool will be used in the U.S. as quite low for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it would probably be worthwhile for the Fed to conduct further analysis of this option," Bernanke wrote.
Ben Bernanke
Katie Kramer | CNBC
Ben Bernanke
The U.S. central bank this week held its target short-term interest rate range at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The Fed indicated it could hike twice this year, but as rates remain below historical averages, many market watchers have wondered what the Fed could do to respond to another potential slowdown.

Bernanke said the Fed could use forward guidance, or "talking down" longer-term rates while convincing markets that short-term rates will remain low. If economic weakness warranted a stronger response, the Fed may consider quantitative easing.


A specialist works at the New York Stock Exchange on March 16, 2016, as the decision of the Federal Reserve appears on a TV screen.
Market's message to the Fed: We don't believe you
$100 dollar bills
Battle is swirling around fate of the $100 bill

But more bond-buying could spook markets and may not prove as effective as when it was used after the financial crisis, Bernanke argued. The Fed may then mull following central banks in Europe and Japan to negative interest rates.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank had not "actively" discussed the policy move.

"What I would like to make clear is that this is not actively a subject that we are considering or discussing. The committee continues to feel that we are on a course where the economy is improving and inflation is moving back up," Yellen said.

Bernanke said market aversion to negative rates seems "overdone." He noted that the policy would bring only "modest benefits" with "manageable costs."

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2016, 05:58:39 PM »



負利率效應:德國保險箱熱賣,銀行恐被迫鋌而走險
回應(0) 人氣(202) 收藏(0) 2016/03/22 16:22
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-22 16:22:33 記者 賴宏昌 報導
英國金融時報22日報導,德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)財務長Stephan Engels透露已自去年底起開始針對企業大額存款實施負利率。他說,無法想像有一天會被迫向小額存款戶收取保管費。Engels還提到,要銀行業用歐洲央行(ECB)提供的低廉資金去做高風險放貸就跟走回頭路碰觸「擔保債務憑證(CDO)」沒兩樣。凱克薩銀行(Caixabank SA)執行長Gonzalo Gortazar指出,有些同業曾利用ECB過去推出的「定向長期再融資操作(TLTRO)」去購買高收益公司債。他擔心在超低利率或負利率環境下銀行業整體風險將會升高。
摩根士丹利常務董事Huw van Steenis 22日投書英國金融時報指出,認為負利率只是量化寬鬆的自然延續是低估了金融中介機構的實際反映。他說,瑞典、丹麥以及瑞士的經驗顯示銀行業實際上是提高放款(特別是房貸)利率。ECB首席經濟學家普雷特(Peter Praet)上週說從他國央行的經驗來看歐元區負利率還沒達到極限。這意味著圍繞在歐洲銀行股的不確定性因素將揮之不去。
ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)10日在記者會上提到,ECB決定推出第二代TLTRO是因為歐元區放款成長率還是太低。他指出,今年6月至2017年3月這段期間,ECB每季都將推出為期4年的TLTRO(總計將有4次),這意味著最後一次的TLTRO將在2021年3月到期。

CNBC 3月14日報導,摩根士丹利證券(大摩)預期ECB將在今年第3季進一步將超額存款準備金率下調10個基點至-0.5%。
Thomson Reuters 3月17日報導,WGZ(德國區域銀行)執行長Hans-Bernd Wolberg在記者會上表示,保險箱開始成為流行商品。他提到,WGZ部分企業存款戶已經適用負利率、但小額存款戶尚未受到波及。
日本經濟新聞2月報導,以神戶大學教授山田誠一(Seiichi Yamada)為首的金融法學專家19日表示,即便日本長期利率轉負,銀行存款利率/貸款利率、企業債殖利率依法還是不能出現負數。那麼,銀行該怎麼生存下去?專家表示,銀行業可以針對他們所提供的服務收取費用。
美國聯準會(FED)前主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)18日在布魯金斯研究所官網部落格發表專文指出,多數美國銀行業的資金來源不是來自小額存款戶,而是來自大型機構以及外國存款戶;相較於自行存放現金、這些大額存戶應該可以接受微幅的負利率。
柏南克認為媒體與市場對負利率政策(NIRP)的焦慮不安似乎太過頭了,因為當短期利率降至零的時候、負利率只不過是一種自然的延續過程而已


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #38 on: March 23, 2016, 06:32:12 AM »



Hungary central bank cuts deposit rate into negative territory
Reuters with CNBC.com
8 Hours Ago
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The National Bank of Hungary cut its overnight deposit rate by 15 basis points to -0.05 percent on Tuesday and lowered its overnight lending rate to 1.45 percent from 2.1 percent.

The bank has also cut its key base rate by 15 basis points to 1.2 percent despite market expectations for no change at the March policy meeting.

The main facade of the Hungarian central bank.
Bloomberg/Contributor | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The main facade of the Hungarian central bank.
Negative rates is a policy tool which has already been deployed by the likes of Japan, Switzerland, and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Denmark's central bank became one of the first to adopt negative deposit rates in July 2012 at negative 0.2 percent. It has since pushed rates to minus 0.65 percent , in a bid to spur further bank lending and boost the country's economic recovery. Switzerland has set its own deposit rate at negative 0.75 percent, while Sweden has pushed its key interest rate to negative 0.5 percent.

Most recently, the European Central Bank stopped short of a dip below zero on its main refinancing rate but slashed its deposit rate to minus 0.4 percent.


‘Never say never’ on negative rates: Fmr Fed gov
William Jackson, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics said Hungary's surprise move on Tuesday probably marks the start of a modest easing cycle.

"As things stand, we expect a further 20 basis points or so of cuts in the coming months, bringing the policy rate to 1.0 percent by year-end," he said in a note.

"Today's decision was probably triggered by a few factors including additional policy stimulus by the ECB, likely downwards revisions to the National Bank's inflation forecasts (due to be released in this month's inflation report), and the weaker-than-expected activity and inflation data released over the past month."
The economy in Hungary is likely to slow a little and inflation could edge lower in the next few months, according to Jackson.

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2016, 08:26:58 PM »



财经  2016年03月23日
央行欲宽鬆救经济 房市泡沫却蠢动

(纽约23日讯)不动產市场是个几乎每个央行都非常担心、却很少人能控制得了的动物。美联储(Fed)打算慢动作前进,欧洲和其他货幣主管当局也准备继续宽鬆,但这个时候一定会听到很多对房市的「警觉声」。

不过,如何能一边降息提振低迷的通胀和经济,一边却不让房市过于火热?

美国还在房市崩盘的余震下惊魂未定;房市崩盘也多被视为美国前波经济大衰退的元凶之一。美国经济在2009年第2季就停止萎缩,但房价仍继续跌了3年。

此后价格回升的速度虽比其他23国快,但比起巔峰时期仍低了3.8%。

纽澳南非房价涨最多

全球不动產市场从2012年落底至今,纽西兰、澳洲和南非的房价涨最多,涨幅超过30%,远高于其他国家的平均值11%,而欧洲部份大型经济体的房价甚至还在跌,有个例外是德国。

各国央行希望见到低利率的效应,能传导进经济活动。不动產市场的价格和交易,可以视为买方对经济信心、劳动市场强度以及消费前景的指標。

当然,房市太过火热,也会成为继续降息的阻碍。

瑞典央行已把利率將到负0.5%,希望把物价涨幅拉回2%的目標,瑞典通胀率从2012年就一直处于2%以下。根据美国达拉斯联储银行的房价指数,瑞典央行从2011年第4季开始降息,该国的房价从那时起涨了25%。

信评机构穆迪警告瑞典,房贷与房价风险持续强劲上扬,会引发资產泡沫

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #40 on: March 31, 2016, 07:12:34 AM »


Opinion: Negative interest rates put the global economy on a razor’s edge

By Satyajit Das
Published: Mar 29, 2016 10:08 a.m. ET

     47 
Negative Thinking: Central bankers’ last-ditch attempt to heal their weak patient
Getty Images
Negative interest rates, which central banks in several countries have implemented as a way to spur economic growth, is a radical move. In this three-part series, ‘Negative Thinking,’ commentator Satyajit Das examines this policy and the risk it carries.

Several of the world’s central banks have crossed the Rubicon, commencing a high-risk experiment with negative interest rates. The intent is clear: reduce debt by confiscation and transfer wealth from savers to borrowers. This is ultimately an admission of defeat, as traditional means of bringing excessive debt under control have failed.

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Negative rates are now the policy of the European Central Bank, with a deposit rate of minus 0.40%. Ditto for Switzerland, where the rate is minus 0.75%. In Sweden, the rate is minus 0.35%. The Bank of Japan too has announced negative interest rates, of 0.10%.


More than $26 trillion of government bonds now trade at yields of below 1%, with around $7 trillion currently yielding less than 0%. Government bonds in Germany with a maturity of seven years are trading at negative yields, while Swiss and Japanese government bonds out to 10 years trade at negative yields.

Read: Here’s the buzzword to listen for in Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech

Negative yields mean that if an investor places a deposit with a bank, at maturity the investor receives an amount less than the original investment. In effect, the depositor pays to place money with the bank. In the case of bonds, negative yields mean that investors accept an economic loss, as the price paid by the investor is greater than the present value of the interest payments and principal repayment for a security.

Negative real rates entail return on the amount invested but loss of purchasing power because inflation rates are greater than the return. Negative nominal rates involve a guaranteed loss of capital invested.

Yet negative rates so far have not boosted growth or inflation. Instead the policy is creating serious economic and financial distortions.

The lack of impact on the real economy reflects the failure of these policies to materially increase consumption and investment. Heavily indebted or increasingly cautious households are reluctant to borrow to fund spending. Low business investment reflects lack of demand, over-capacity, and a reluctance to increase debt in a potentially deflationary environment.

Negative rates also may create deflationary pressures. Artificial reduction in the cost of capital may encourage investment in excess capacity, which in turn drives down prices for goods and services. Lower cost of capital may encourage substitution of labor with capital goods, which curtails both hiring and demand, which in turn adversely affects growth and inflation.

Moreover, reducing excess reserves, where they exist, has proved difficult because of the lack of demand for new credit. In part, this reflects the fact that most banks have not passed the negative rates on to the majority of customers. In jurisdictions with negative official rates, some banks only charge large corporations or fund managers to deposit cash. Most banks do not yet charge retail customers to deposit money. There are limited examples of banks paying customers to borrow. Banks dependent on deposits are reluctant to reduce rates, fearing the loss of their funding base.

Read: This is why you can expect another global stock market meltdown

Lending rates have not come down in line with official rates. Concerns about profitability, compounded by new higher capital and liquidity regulations, have reduced banks’ willingness to lend.

Most economies with negative rates are caught in a credit trap. Credit demand is weak and credit supply is constrained. Policy measures such as negative rate and additional QE are increasingly ineffective.

Negative interest rates are also ******* in managing exchange rates. The latest round of rate cuts have not affected currency values as expected. Both the yen USDJPY, +0.02%  and the euro EURUSD, -0.0353%   appreciated against the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.37%  after the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank announced negative rates. Persistence with this policy risks triggering a race to the bottom for both interest rates and currencies.

Negative rates come with other complications. Negative rates change the role of default or bankruptcy in debt markets. A borrower could default only on principal repayments, since there is no interest payment. Covenants such as interest or debt cover designed to provide early warning of distress would have less significance or none at all. Depending on bankruptcy laws, borrowers may lose and lenders gain in cases of default.

Negative or ultra-low interest rates also reduce the risk of default. As shown in Japan, it creates zombie companies and industries by distorting the cost of capital and finance encouraging malinvestment. Such companies do not make necessary adjustments to strategy or business practices. Unproductive investments are not restructured or sold. Banks do not write off bad loans, relying instead on low- or negative rates to allow these zombie companies to continue operations. Weakened profitability from negative interest rates discourages banks from aggressively realizing bad debts.

In effect, negative rates delay essential restructuring to remove the detritus of previous crises. It restricts the supply of credit to the wider economy, affecting economic activity. Misallocation of capital deepens the malaise, and an ultimate resolution to this global problem becomes even more costly and difficult.

Satyajit Das is a former banker and author of The Age of Stagnation (Prometheus Books).

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #41 on: March 31, 2016, 02:15:19 PM »



葛洛斯:別投資、快借錢!資本利得將如貓熊般罕見
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MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-31 10:30:59 記者 陳苓 報導
負利率的扭曲環境下,投資沒錢賺,借錢才是最佳理財之道?知名債券經理人葛洛斯表示,資金無法孳息,投資人賺不到錢,央行所剩時間無幾,必需盡快拉高成長,否則市場將一路狂瀉。
CNBC、MarketWatch 30日報導,葛洛斯在4月投資展望報告稱,不少專業投資人管理資產的方式,就像小學生,不了解負殖利率債券的荒謬性和嚴重後果。他說,這些人預期殖利率還會更低,因此買進負殖利率債券,想趁到期之前出售賺取利差。這些人認為他們不會持有到期、來到注定虧損的終點線。葛洛斯警告,已開發國家公債有30~40%為負殖利率、日本債券更有75%為負殖利率,勢必有人會持有到期蒙受虧損。
葛洛斯強調投資債券虧錢,錢進股市情況也不會太好。央行刻意壓低利率、甚至砍到負值,盼讓眾人投資正殖利率資產,帶動通膨再膨脹,但是此一策略在真實世界不會奏效。他說,負利率造成資本虧損、而非資本利得,金錢無法孳息,投資人難以獲利,除非實質成長/通膨(名目GDP)能提高到一定地步,允許央行利率正常化,否則依邏輯推論,市場將下跌、而非攀升。

葛洛斯接受CNBC「Power Lunch」訪問進一步解釋,這是小學一年級的數學,債券殖利率為零或為負值,意思是持有債券賺不到錢。他在投資展望提到,資本利得和未來預期報酬會和貓熊一樣,極為罕見、生殖能力又差。已開發和開發中國家陷入停滯,必須提高名目GDP成長。
葛洛斯說,他的解決之道不是絕望放棄,而是走出動物園。當前情況下,與其投資做白工,不如利用零利率多加借款。
負利率備受爭議,國際央行為何甘冒風險,實施此一大膽措施?有人認為,這是央行絕望之舉,他們無法用傳統方法壓低債務,只好冒險一搏,盼能治好垂死患者。
MarketWatch專欄作家Satyajit Das 29日專文指出,歐洲央行(ECB)、日本央行(BOJ)跨過最後界線,施行高風險的負利率政策。他們目的很清楚,要把存款者的財富,轉移到借款者手上。這等於央行承認失敗,坦承傳統的債務控制方法已經失效


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #42 on: March 31, 2016, 02:17:16 PM »



保險箱準備好了嗎?德國央行委員:存款利率恐轉負
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MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-31 09:16:20 記者 賴宏昌 報導
法新社報導,德國央行貨幣政策委員Andreas Dombret 30日在接受德國明鏡週刊(Der Spiegel)網路版專訪時表示,許多德國銀行業者已開始或即將調高各項服務業務(例如:提領現金)費用。他說,業者反映他們會想盡辦法避免對一般存款戶直接收費,但當前利率政策實施越久、負利率負擔轉嫁給客戶的機率就越高。
Dombret表示,作為監管機構、他不能對銀行業下指導棋,每家銀行都得自行做出判斷。Dombret擔心低利率最終可能會導致不動產再度泡沫化。他提到,近年來大都會地區房價呈現大幅走高。
英國央行(BOE)貨幣政策委員會前委員Willem Buiter 30日在日本經濟新聞發表專文指出,日本、歐元區的負利率政策(NIRP)恐將持續數年之久。他表示,NIRP若長期實施下去、一般小額存款戶可能也得跟利息說再見。

根據日本央行(BOJ)日前公布的NIRP問答(Q&A)說帖,歐洲目前的負利率比日本還要低、但民間存款利率尚未出現負值。
歐洲央行(ECB)官網3月18日公布首席經濟學家普雷特(Peter Praet)接受義大利共和報(La Repubblica)訪問的內容。普雷特表示,只要負利率繼續對經濟帶來正面貢獻,讓成長率提高、不良貸款減少,對銀行業來說也將是正面的。他說,對銀行來說今年的問題不大,重點在於負利率如果持續實施下去而他們的營運模式沒有改變、屆時獲利問題就會浮上檯面。
Thomson Reuters 3月17日報導,WGZ(德國區域銀行)執行長Hans-Bernd Wolberg在記者會上表示,保險箱開始成為流行商品。他提到,WGZ部分企業存款戶已經適用負利率、但小額存款戶尚未受到波及。
全球最大再保險公司慕尼黑再保(Munich Re)16日表示,面對ECB的懲罰性「負利率政策(NIRP)」,公司已增加黃金、現鈔的存放數量。
英國金融時報3月22日報導,德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)財務長Stephan Engels透露已自去年底起開始針對企業大額存款實施負利率。他說,無法想像有一天會被迫向小額存款戶收取保管費。
知名債券基金操盤人葛洛斯(Bill Gross)3月30日發表月度投資展望報告指出,零利率、負利率已破壞了與銀行業、保險業、退休基金以及小額存款戶相關的資本主義商業模式


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2016, 02:18:50 PM »



日本銀行業開始對退休基金、資產管理公司存款收費
回應(0) 人氣(407) 收藏(0) 2016/03/31 08:28
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-31 08:28:41 記者 賴宏昌 報導
英國金融時報30日報導,因應日本央行(BOJ)實施的負利率政策(NIRP),三菱日聯信託銀行(Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Co.)、三井住友信託銀行證實已通知包括退休基金等客戶將開始對存放在銀行的資金收取費用。
三菱日聯將針對新投資信託資金收取0.1%費用,同時也將對退休基金新增的存款餘額收取0.06%的費用。三井住友信託銀行將針對銀行帳戶收取最高0.1%的費用。
Thomson Reuters 30日稍早引述消息人士談話報導,日本部分投資信託銀行將把NIRP的負擔轉嫁給資產管理公司等機構客戶。根據一項在3月3-17日所做的調查,15%的受訪企業表示銀行存款利率若出現負值就會把現金擺放在公司內的保險箱。這項調查並且顯示,高達62%的受訪企業不認同BOJ的NIRP,認為那將會傷害企業與消費者信心。

知名債券基金操盤人葛洛斯(Bill Gross)30日發表月度投資展望報告指出,零利率、負利率已破壞了與銀行業、保險業、退休基金以及小額存款戶相關的資本主義商業模式。
英國央行(BOE)貨幣政策委員會前委員Willem Buiter 30日在日本經濟新聞發表專文指出,日本、歐元區的NIRP恐將持續數年之久。他表示,NIRP若長期實施下去、一般小額存款戶可能也得跟利息說再見。
BOJ總裁黑田東彥3月7日在讀賣國際經濟協會(Yomiuri International Economic Society)發表演說時指出,日本金融業競爭激烈、銀行不可能因為NIRP就把放款利率提高。此外,銀行為了要維護與客戶的長期關係,也不可能將存款利率降至負值,因為那將導致存款被領光。
BOJ 1月29日宣布將超額存款準備金率(IOER)自0.1%降至-0.1%,2月16日起日本商業銀行存放在BOJ約10兆日圓存款開始適用負利率新制


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #44 on: March 31, 2016, 03:42:34 PM »
 :D :D :D...........hali hali copycats,still looking for situpit followers to share lossesss!!!!  :P :P

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #45 on: March 31, 2016, 03:45:55 PM »
Bull is coming!!!!!
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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #46 on: March 31, 2016, 04:38:13 PM »
:D :D :D...........hali hali copycats,still looking for situpit followers to share lossesss!!!!  :P :P






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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #47 on: April 05, 2016, 11:56:34 AM »


Opinion: How negative interest rates could lead to a world without cash

By Satyajit Das
Published: Apr 4, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

     72 
Negative Thinking: Central bankers force acceptance of a monetary-policy revolution
Getty
Negative interest rates, which central banks in several countries have implemented as a way to spur economic growth, is a radical move. In part two of a three-part series, ‘Negative Thinking,’ commentator Satyajit Das examines this policy and its risks.

Several of the world’s central banks have adopted negative interest rates. But why would investors go along? There are several possible reasons:

1. Security and safety: Government bonds or insured bank deposits are backed by the full faith and credit of a sovereign nation, which has the ability to issue currency to make repayments.


2. Returns are relative: In Europe, for example, purchasing bonds yielding more that the official rate at the central bank — even if it is negative — is the least worst alternative.

3. Speculation: Investors may be attracted by the opportunity for capital gains from price appreciation if they expect yields to become even more negative. Foreign investors also may be attracted by possible currency appreciation.

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4. Real returns: Investors may favor real return over nominal return. Bonds with nominal low- or negative return may preserve or increase purchasing power in situations where the expected deflation is greater than the negative yield, providing positive real yield.

5. Investment mandate: Fund managers may be forced to purchase negative yielding bonds, irrespective of the fact that it locks in a loss.

6. Banks’ and insurers’ mandate:Financial institutions may be forced to purchase negative yielding securities, given liquidity regulations that require these entities to hold high-quality securities.

7. Central banks’ mandate: Central banks with restricted investment choices are also buyers of negative-yielding securities.

Read: Negative interest rates put the global economy on a razor’s edge

Coping strategies

Yet large and persistent negative interest rates would meet significant resistance, triggering alternative strategies to avoid losses.

To begin with, investors can withdraw cash and hold it. In the 1990s, low interest rates and concern about bank failures drove significant withdrawals of cash in Japan, creating something of a bull market for home safes.

Nowadays, Europe and Japan are seeing record purchases of safes, presumably designed to store cash and avoid the impact of negative rates.

Second, investors may avoid negative rates by resorting to a variety of near-cash instruments. For instance, businesses could take payment by bank checks that would not be deposited until the money was needed.

Third, investors could hold savings in foreign currencies, converting into a negative-yielding currency when needed. This strategy avoids negative yields but entails foreign-exchange risk, unless this can be effectively hedged.

Fourth, real assets such as land, property, commodities — especially precious metals and collectibles — would be favored. Businesses also could stockpile inventory.

Fifth, payments would be made quickly. This strategy could be extended to prepayments of taxes, suppliers, or employees, where parties could pay for future obligations in advance. While this avoids the impact from negative yields, it does carry credit- and performance risk.

Yet while these mechanisms cope with negative yields, they are socially and economically destructive. Funds become tied up in unproductive assets. Savings do not circulate to provide essential financing of social and industrial investment, reducing growth. Capital allocation is distorted by the sole desire to avoid negative rates.

Moreover, a shift out of banking deposits would adversely affect the funding of banks. The reduction and instability of funding, as liabilities shift to certified checks or prepayments, may reduce the ability of the financial system to extend credit, further hampering economic activity.

Read: This is why you can expect another global stock market meltdown

Trashing cash

The most radical consequence of negative rates would be the abolition of cash itself.

To date, the case for banning cash has been couched in terms of deterring criminality or terrorism, eliminating tax avoidance, enhancing efficiency by faster funds-flows, reducing costs, or even improving hygiene by preventing contact with bacteria and virus-harboring notes.

In a future economic or financial crisis, current low rates would restrict the effectiveness of monetary policy. Enhancing the ability to use negative rates would provide central banks with additional flexibility and tools to deal with a slowdown. This would be an imaginative, rapid, and durable mechanism for levying negative rates to confiscate savings.

Abolishing cash would require a revolutionary change. Despite the increasing acceptance of electronic payment, cash is still extensively used throughout the world In effect, currency remains an important medium of exchange and means of payment for legitimate, legal transactions.

Cash use is especially high among both poor and older people. Accordingly, the elimination of currency would have implications for social and financial exclusion. The cost of converting these users to digital payments would be substantial.

Central banks also would lose financially, experiencing a decline in “seigniorage revenue” — the difference between the minimal cost of creating currency and the investment return on government bonds. The amounts lost are significant, reducing both the loss-absorption capacity of central banks and a source of revenue for public finances.

An exclusively digital or electronic payment system also increases security and operational risks significantly; counterfeiting, cyber-hacking, and disruptions due to technology failures would be considerable.

Of course, banishing cash would likely meet stiff resistance. People are likely to object to the loss of the anonymity and privacy that cash provides. Where the elimination of cash is linked to negative rates, it would be seen as a tax on savers and the state confiscation of savings. The intrusion of the state and authorities on such a mass scale would undoubtedly become an explosive political issue.

Satyajit Das is a former banker and author of The Age of Stagnation (Prometheus Books)

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #48 on: April 06, 2016, 03:27:49 PM »



負利率成全球國債新常態? 通脹回升爆大鑊
04月06日(三) 11:06   


【on.cc東網專訊】儘管聯儲局官員正警告市場可能低估了今年聯儲局進一步加息的可能性,受新一輪避險情緒以及歐洲央行擴大債券購買計劃規模並推出負利率政策的共同影響,德國10年期國債收益率推向負利率邊沿。

Tradeweb數據顯示,基準10年期德國國債收益率周二觸及0.08%,創年內最低,距離歷史收盤低位0.073%僅一步之遙。

基金公司Brandywine Global Investment Management投資組合經理Jack McIntyre表示,這是一個奇怪的時期。經濟學教科書上討論過負收益率嗎?這是一種新常態。

全球約1/4的政府債券收益率已經為負值,包括期限少於10年的的德國債券。繼日本央行加入負利率陣營後,10年期日本國債今年初亦首次降至零以下。此前甚至一些歐洲企業債券的收益率最近也已跌至負值區域。

周二,10年期美國國債收益率跌至1.729%,遠低於去年年底的2.273%。

10年期德國國債最新收益率為0.095%,大幅低於2015年年底的0.63%。10年期日本國債收益率周二收於-0.07%,2015年底為0.27%。

美國、德國、英國和日本的國債收益率走低反映投資者和決策者的困境:全球商品需求疲軟、經濟增速低迷和低通脹對擴張貨幣政策的努力構成阻力。

摩根富林明資產管理全球固定收益國際首席投資長Nick Gartside稱,這令各國央行面臨難題。目前的收益率很低,但這並不意味著收益率不會進一步走低。

聯儲局數據顯示,聯儲局所持美國國債佔美國政府債券餘額的近20%。滙豐控股數據顯示,3月末英國央行所持英國國債佔英國政府債券餘額的比例為26%,日本央行所持日本國債佔日本政府債券餘額的比例為30%。在歐元區,歐洲央行和歐元區成員國央行所持德國國債佔德國主權債餘額的10%。

投資者表示,歐洲央行的買盤可能繼續給收益率帶來下行壓力,因為私人投資者購買德國國債的競爭變得更加激烈。

滙豐固定收益研究部門全球主管Steven Major稱,極低的全球收益率與美國收益率下降的趨勢一致。他預計,今年年底美國10年期國債收益率為1.5%。

Prudential Fixed Income高級投資組合經理Michael Collins稱,債券空頭押注長期利率上升的操作,數年來、甚至幾十年來都是錯誤的。

收益率下降給債券投資者帶來了豐厚的資本利得,但處於紀錄低位的收益率讓債券持有人容易因收益率上升並維持在較高水平而蒙受顯著資本損失。

法國興業銀行美國國債交易員Anthony Cronin稱,負收益率債券是債券泡沫出現的一個跡象,這種情況下人們關心的是收益,而不是會不會損失初始投資。如果10年期德國國債收益率跌至零以下,尋求正收益率的投資者將因此承受更大壓力,這意味著他們要承擔更高的利率和信用風險。

Cronin稱,所有國債市場的流動性都在下降,如果通脹真的回升或者收益率突然走高,這種情況可能造成嚴重問題。

國債市場的結構性調整使債券投資者容易受到價格劇烈波動的影響。例如,10年期美國國債價格在2014年曾迅速大漲,隨後德國國債價格在2015年急劇下跌,當時10年期德國國債收益率在觸及歷史低點後升高。日本國債市場今年初也走勢動盪。

經紀公司R.W. Pressprich & Co.駐紐約政府和機構交易主管Larry Milstein稱,他擔心貨幣刺激政策結束時,國債市場走勢將出現迅速且劇烈的逆轉。

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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #49 on: April 08, 2016, 03:32:30 PM »



負利率與央行想要的效果背道而馳:現金流通速度變慢
回應(0) 人氣(399) 收藏(0) 2016/04/08 12:47
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-08 12:47:54 記者 郭妍希 報導
自從日本央行(BOJ)在1月29日實施負利率之後,日圓不貶反升、相對美元迄今已跳漲最多11%,投機客佈下的日圓多單更激增至多年新高,這些現象讓BOJ總裁黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)威信掃地。
為何投資人對負利率的反應未如央行預期?barron`s.com 7日報導,里昂證券策略師Christopher Wood發表研究報告指出,對老年化社會來說,負利率尤其不適合,而日本的存款中,有68%來自家長年紀超過60歲的家庭,但BOJ卻不顧後果硬是實施了這樣的貨幣政策,黑田威信掃地。
Wood警告,利率轉負的程度愈深,主權債券市場面臨的動盪風險就愈大,因為投資人現在已不願意將負利率的公債持有至到期日。然而,一旦民間投資者退出、公債市場難以持穩,那麼BOJ會被迫買入多公債。

BOJ目前一年要購入80兆日圓的日本公債(JGB),相當於每個月要買進約10兆日圓。這已超過JGB的發行量,日本政府一年平均僅發行約34兆日圓的JGB。從JGB交易量驟減的現象,也可看出此一危險的趨勢。
除此之外,負利率會促使金融機構在銀行體系外囤積現金,Wood認為,這會進一步拖累現金流通的速度,與央行想要的效果背道而馳,日本面額1萬日圓的紙鈔流通量增加就是證據。
日本人口日益老化,退休年金制度不堪負荷,許多老人到手的退休金難以應付生活花費、身邊又沒親人照料,認為自己還不如入監服刑,至少管吃管住還享有健保,也讓銀髮族的犯罪率愈來愈高。負利率讓老人難以靠儲蓄創造金流,未來情況恐更加惡化。
英國金融時報3月27日報導,數據顯示,日本有35%順手牽羊的犯人年齡超過60歲,其中40%已是慣犯、犯行次數超過六次之多,而背後原因很簡單,這些人就是想進監吃免費牢飯並取得醫療照護。
根據東京研究機構Custom Products Research的調查,就算吃食吝嗇、住屋簡陋,一名日本退休長者的最低生活費依舊比國家給予的基本年金(78萬日圓)多出25%以上。然而,只要偷塊三明治就可蹲兩年牢,國家還得因此付出840萬日圓的代價。
日本有4成老人獨居,身邊沒親人、手上又沒錢,讓老年犯罪急速加溫。根據日本法務省出版的最新統計資料,1991-2013年間,關在獄中的老人慣犯急速增加了460%之多。
負利率將使退休基金更難獲利,無法保障人民的退休生活。CNBC 去年3月1日報導,高盛稱,負殖利率將引發新的問題,退休基金和保險公司很難達成保障報酬。報告稱保險公司多假設未來利率為正,並高於現值,萬一低殖利率或負殖利率持續,保障報酬產品很難賺錢。此外,銀行獲利若因負利率受創,銀行可能會因此減少放款,結果不但未能刺激經濟,反而有害復甦。不僅如此,負利率也會容易引發資產泡沫,科技股和高股息股風險尤高,因為這些個股估值都相當驚人


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Re: INTEREST RATES
« Reply #49 on: April 08, 2016, 03:32:30 PM »