Author Topic: FED  (Read 13543 times)

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Re: FED
« Reply #150 on: June 26, 2016, 04:05:23 PM »



Peter Schiff: Brexit is a gift for Janet Yellen's Fed policy
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
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With Britain's decision to leave the European Union, one of Wall Street's most closely followed bears says that Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen should send the Brexit campaign leaders a gift basket.

The U.K.'s decision sent global markets reeling in its aftermath, hiking volatility and injecting uncertainty into the outlook for the world's economy. For those reasons, a growing number Wall Street watchers think the Fed's timetable to gradually hike interest rates have been severely curtailed, if not taken off the table altogether.

The Fed's willingness to begin pulling back on crisis era policy was already in doubt. "Now, Janet Yellen can blame her failure to raise rates on Brexit," said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital on CNBC's "Trading Nation" this week.

"She could even use this as an excuse to cut rates back to zero and launch QE4," the bearish investor said, referring to a fourth round of quantitative easing, the massive bond buying used by the Fed to try and spur growth.

"As far as Janet Yellen is concerned, the British have given her the gift that keeps on giving," concluded Schiff.
A relentless critic of the central bank, Schiff used Britain's referendum as a new reason to blast U.S. financial leaders. He said without Brexit, the Fed would have to admit that domestic economic weakness is the true reason for leaving rates near zero.

"For months, the corner that the Fed has painted itself into has gotten smaller and smaller," explained Schiff in his recent coverage. "Sadly, Fed officials are discovering that their supply of credibility is not infinite."

Markets suffered a harrowing trading session on Friday, with the Dow plunged over 600 points to a 10-month low, and Germany DAX closing down nearly 7 percent, its worst day since 2008. Additionally, the STOXX dropped 14 percent for its worst day since 1987 while markets in Spain and Italy both sank by 7 percent.
Schiff believes that weak markets will continue to fuel the Fed's resistance to tightening monetary policy. He said that when critics call out the Fed's inaction, the Fed can simply point to uncertainty in the U.K., the world's fifth largest economy.

'An excuse for years'

Leader of UKIP and Vote Leave campaign Nigel Farage
Mary Turner | Getty Images
Leader of UKIP and Vote Leave campaign Nigel Farage
"Since the process is bound to be long, messy and fraught with uncertainties this will be a handy excuse that the Fed will be able to rely on for years," said Schiff, an outspoken libertarian who previously advised Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign.

From here, Schiff is fearful that low rates will distort global currencies. On Friday, the pound touched a 30-year low versus the dollar while the U.S. Dollar Index traded up by over 2 percent.

"Given that there is already much concern that the dollar is valued too highly against most currencies, any surge in the dollar that results from Brexit will have to be fought by the Federal Reserve through lower interest rates and quantitative easing," Schiff added.

Greenspan's fears

Alan Greenspan echoed similarly worrisome sentiments on CNBC on Friday's "Squawk Box" and called Friday brutal trading the worst he's ever seen.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg," warned Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve Chairman from 1987 to 2006. "This problem that's causing the British problem is far more widespread. Fundamentally, what we are looking at is a massive slowing in the rate of real incomes across the whole European spectrum."
Schiff added that gaps between the working class anti-establishment and the political and economic establishment are likely to fuel further upheaval in the world economy.

At this point in time, a global disconnect seems to be widening, he said.

"The people revolted," said Schiff. "After having been misled for so many years by the very elites who urged them to remain, the rank and file asserted themselves and voted with their feet."
Schiff argued the public is rebelling against policies backed by the political class, such as deficit spending, government regulation were key for a recovery post-2008. Furthermore, Schiff says that the rise of insurgents like Donald Trump illustrate a deep distrust of the establishment that helped lead to Britain's departure.
With cracks in the EU now exposed, troubled nations like Spain, Italy and Portugal could soon followed Britain's example, some say. With this, time will tell if the European Union's days are numbered, which could further help the Fed in delaying rate hikes.

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Re: FED
« Reply #150 on: June 26, 2016, 04:05:23 PM »

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Re: FED
« Reply #151 on: June 27, 2016, 08:09:21 PM »



Can Fed Swap Lines Prevent A Market Crash This Week?
Posted on June 26, 2016 by The Doc   Leave a comment   536 views
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Home » Headlines » Finance News » Can Fed Swap Lines Prevent A Market Crash This Week?


panicI don’t believe we will see a massive crash this coming week.  We’re not going to get anything like an October, 1987 style downdraft.
We are going lower, however…

Silver Rounds SD Bullion

“The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.” – Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman

TND Exclusive:  Eric Dubin

I don’t believe we will see a massive crash this coming week.  We’re not going to get anything like an October, 1987 style downdraft.  We are going lower, however, and seeing another 5% bleed out of the S&P 500 next week is roughly the level of carnage I’m expecting.

But it’s going to come with a heck of a lot of volatility, and many people will view downside voltility as proof that the BIG ONE is upon us.  This downdraft is part of the overall “rolling crash” that we are undergoing that will extend through this year and into next year.

Euro Salvador Dali

My assessment about the coming week is based on what I’m seeing with market management efforts led by central bankers.  I see substantial anecdotal evidence in multiple markets that stocks, ETFs and futures and options were being bought by the powers that be to save the markets.  The magnitude of these flows is impressive, at least, as suggested by the impact to targeted assets.

I’m not able to prove that the Fed, BOJ, Bank of England and the ECB have fired-up credit swap lines with each other.  But once the fireworks started to go off, post Brexit victory, the Fed actually disclosed to the media that swap lines were at the ready.  Friday morning, the Fed released the following statement:

The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union.

The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the U.S. economy.

That sort of disclosure is unusual, because it wasn’t all that long ago that the Fed refused to discuss using swap lines.  The Fed has taken a chapter from the public relations industry;  since central bankers have been outed for using swap lines when they wanted to hide that fact back in the 2008-2010 period, why not “get in front of a crisis” and make the most of market participant awareness that central bankers have a big red button they now push anytime flinging a few trillion around is deemed necessary (that’s trillions, with a “t”).  The intention was to let it be known that the authorities are going to try to kick the snot out of short sellers while supporting equity markets.

Here’s just one example of PPT footprints.  Look at the insane level of buying of Deutsche Bank’s ADRs at and through the NYSE open.  No profit seeking investor or trader would be doing that in the face of what was going on with Deutsche Bank shares crashing on European stock exchanges.

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Re: FED
« Reply #152 on: June 28, 2016, 08:11:10 AM »



The Fed’s Market Mover Keeps Changing His Mind
James Bullard has developed an unrivaled reputation for shifting his stance on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates
By MICHAEL S. DERBY
Updated June 27, 2016 2:05 p.m. ET
In a world of hawks and doves, U.S. central banker James Bullard has made it quite clear which one he is. And then, on a number of occasions, he has made it equally evident that he is the other

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Re: FED
« Reply #153 on: June 28, 2016, 10:21:54 AM »



Brexit效應不容小覷!葉倫取消ECB會議回美國坐鎮
回應(0) 人氣(53) 收藏(0) 2016/06/28 09:24
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-28 09:24:25 記者 賴宏昌 報導
MarketWatch報導,歐洲央行(ECB)網站更新後的活動頁面顯示,美國聯準會(FED)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen;見圖)已取消出席ECB每年在葡萄牙Sintra所舉行的央行論壇。在此之前,英國央行(ECB)總裁卡尼(Mark Carney)也已決定不出席由他與葉倫、ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)所組成的政策小組會議。
葉倫6月15日表示,在非常不尋常、極端的狀況下,FED可能會考慮動用直升機撒錢來避免美國經濟陷入嚴重衰退。葉倫的看法與FED前主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)類似。擁有「直升機班(Helicopter Ben)」綽號的柏南克日前在部落格發表專文時指出,在特定極端狀況(嚴重短缺的總體需求、貨幣政策工具箱空無一物、立法機構不願舉債實施擴張財政政策)下應考慮動用直升機撒錢。
英國金融時報報導,葉倫將在6月28日飛回華盛頓。她與卡尼、德拉吉原本預計在29日同台出席ECB所舉辦的年度盛會。

英國央行前總裁金恩(Mervyn King)27日在接受BBC專訪時表示,歐元區受英國脫歐(Brexit)的衝擊將大於英國本身,因為公投結果顯示歐洲根本沒有意願進一步進行經濟整合。
FED 24日發表新聞稿表示,英國公投結果公布後已和其他國家央行攜手密切關注全球金融市場發展。
FED準備在必要時透過現有與他國央行簽訂的貨幣互換額度提供美元流動性、以期紓解全球籌資市場的壓力,進而降低對美國經濟的負面衝擊。
CNBC報導,葉倫6月15日在聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)利率會議會後記者會上表示,英國脫歐公投不確定性因素是影響當天決策的因素之一。
XQ全球贏家報價系統顯示,英鎊兌美元27日重貶3.39%至1.3212;盤中最低跌至1.3119、創1985年以來最低紀錄


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Re: FED
« Reply #154 on: June 29, 2016, 11:28:19 AM »



美國通膨預期09年來最低!FED理事:Brexit衝擊難料
回應(0) 人氣(117) 收藏(0) 2016/06/29 10:08
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-29 10:08:06 記者 賴宏昌 報導
聯準會(FED)理事Jerome H. Powell(見圖)28日在芝加哥發表演說時指出,英國脫歐(Brexit)公投恐將創造出新的經濟逆風、令全球風險進一步向下移動。Powell認為現階段還無法評估英國脫歐的潛在衝擊。
Powell提到,美國實質中性(不鬆、不緊)利率目前預估約為零、實質短期利率約-1.25%,因此貨幣政策目前實際上僅提供溫和刺激效果。他坦承4、5月就業數據明顯轉弱的現象的確值得警惕。
Powell也提到FED主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)相當關心的生產力偏低問題。他指出,2011年以來的5年期間美國生產力平均僅年增0.5%、創二次世界大戰以來最低5年平均年增紀錄。

生產力主要是由勞動力技能、工具(設備、軟體)以及總要素生產力(TFP)來決定。Powell認為,金融危機以來美國生產力增長乏力似乎是源自於企業投資低迷以及TFP增長偏低。
MarketWatch 21日報導,葉倫呼籲國會想辦法提振當前低迷的勞動生產力。2007年迄今美國勞動生產力平均年增1.2%、遠低於2000-2007年的2.6%。
根據FED官網發布的半年度證詞講稿,葉倫6月21日在參議院作證時指出,今年4、5月美國每個月平均僅新增8萬份工作、排除罷工因素不計也僅有10萬份,遠低於今年第1季的平均月增20萬份。此外,能源業以外的企業投資出乎意料之外地疲軟。葉倫認為從這裡可以看得出來美國內需面臨下行風險。
FED偏愛的通膨指標「個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」4月年增1.1%。核心PCE 4月年增率持平於1.6%。FED自2012年起明確定義「穩定物價」為PCE須年增2%,自2012年5月起核心PCE年增率就不曾觸及2.0%(註:連續第48個月)。
FRED網站顯示,美國「未來五年之五年期預期通膨率(5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate;簡稱:5y5y)」6月27日報1.41%、平2009年3月10日(1.3%)以來最低紀錄。值得注意的是,在此之前只有在2007-2009年經濟衰退期間這項指標才曾低於1.70%


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Re: FED
« Reply #155 on: July 02, 2016, 08:02:03 PM »



The Daily Reckoning Australia
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Yellen’s Legacy: The Greater Depression
Vern GowdieJuly 2, 2016
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Worried couple using their laptop to pay their bills at home in the living room
What a week. Brexit has come and gone. Markets have settled. The world is not coming to an end…at least not yet anyway.

The Brits defied the polls and bookmakers, opting out of the failing European experiment. Good on them, I say.

The world has not come to a grinding halt. People will still trade. There are many bruised egos in the corridors of power, but life will go on.

The initial reaction from markets was predictable…volatility. Gold powered up to US$1,358 per ounce. Share markets beat a hasty retreat. The British pound was trampled in the rush to the exit. Bond markets were the safe haven for liquidated capital…pushing interest rates even lower.

US billionaire (and investor extraordinaire) George Soros tells us Brexit is the beginning of the end.

In my experience, the well telegraphed events are very rarely the major turning points for markets. It’s the stuff that comes out of left field — like a Lehman Brothers failure — that really shakes markets out of their stupor. These events usually elicit a response along the lines of ‘What the hell…we didn’t seeing that coming…’ Then the proverbial hits the fan.

The reality is that a struggling Europe needs the UK slightly more than the UK needs Europe. They will cobble together a working relationship for both their sakes. The pre-voting doomsday predictions from politicians and central bankers will be revealed for what they were — self-serving hype to keep the insiders’ club together.

For all their bluster on how they’ll huff and puff and blow the Brits house down, Merkel, Junger and Draghi know Europe needs to trade with the well-heeled Brits. They’re not about to put bullet holes in the feet of Europe; or at least I don’t think they will.

The central banks will marshal their stimulus forces to support markets…again. They’ll lead with the predictable big guns of money printing and lower interest rates. Although the Japanese may ‘surprise’ us and reveal a more unorthodox stimulatory weapon. After all, Japan is the frontrunner on how to (mis)manage a deflationary economy. Anything new and creative from Japan is destined to be in our future…unless of course the whole thing blows up beforehand.

And that gets us to the big picture: The increasing debt toxicity in the system.

The real issue has not gone away — and that is the absolute dependency the global economy has on debt to generate GDP growth. More and more debt is required to generate economic growth.

According to McKinsey Global Institute, global debt levels have increased more than US$60 trillion since 2008. Whereas, over the same period, global GDP is up only US$15 trillion (from US$63 trillion to US$78 trillion).

It now requires around US$4 of debt to create US$1 of growth. Whereas 40 years ago, US$1.50 of debt generated US$1 of growth.

Exponential debt is not a sustainable trajectory. However, the powers that be obviously think otherwise. Which is why the cost of debt keeps sinking lower.

Negative interest rates are a clear indication of how wacky the whole system has become in its frenetic and irrational need to inject increasingly larger doses of debt into its veins to remain functional.

Without a continued and rapid accumulation of debt, the whole system is under threat of shutdown. That is not hyperbolic scaremongering; it’s a fact.

A debt to growth ratio of $4 to $1 is a compounding nightmare.

A 2% growth rate on current global GDP (US$78 trillion) equates to US$1.6 trillion. Achieving this growth target requires US$6.4 trillion (four to one) in newly created debt.

In 20 years’ time — assuming a constant 2% growth rate — global GDP would compound to US$116 trillion. Maintaining a 2% growth rate on that number would require around US$10 trillion in new debt to be added.

More debt…on more debt…on more debt.

Trees do not grow to the sky

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Re: FED
« Reply #156 on: July 03, 2016, 03:44:19 PM »



美联储副主席暗示
本月不升息
132点看 2016年7月3日
美联储副主席费雪。
美联储副主席费雪。

(纽约3日综合电)全球股市上周大涨后,英国意外脱欧的震撼似乎暂随各国央行有望扩大刺激措施而消散,市场本周关注焦点重回美国,包括6月就业报告与美联储上次会议纪录等。美联储副主席费雪在最新访谈中提到还在评估脱欧的影响、将采取“观望”的态度,暗示7月不会升息。


投资人“过度避险”

《经济日报》报道,美股标普500指数1日连续第四天收红,四天共涨3.2%,为九个月来最大四日涨幅;俗称美股恐慌指数的VIX,周线暴跌43%,是历来最深跌幅。VIX前一周还大涨33%,市场震荡之剧烈可见一斑,也反映出投资人“过度避险”。

费雪在CNBC受访时表示,关于英国脱欧对美国的影响,美联储在本月底会议前将知道更多。他坦承知道英国公投结果后的第一个反应是“相当震惊”,但英国脱欧对美国贸易不会有立即的影响。这是他3月7日来,首度公开就经济与货币政策发言。

他还说,美国经济自惨淡的5月就业报告发布后,“表现相当不错”,但不能只凭“一个半月的数据就想拼凑出整个状况,尽管“状况看起来比过去好得多”。被问及市场认为美联储今年不会再升息时,费雪表示“我们必须等等看情况如何发展”,暗示本月可能不会升息。

瑞信首席经济学家史威尼预估,美联储下次升息时间为明年5月,而非原估的今年12月,且明年也只会升息两次。本周美联储将公布上次会议纪录,史威尼提醒要仔细观察美联储对英国脱欧的“事前”观点,及对就业成长趋缓、通膨预期下滑的看法。

预定8日公布的6月新增非农就业人口,预估会回升到18万人,5月仅3.8万人。

新闻来源:联合财经网


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Re: FED
« Reply #157 on: July 03, 2016, 03:45:33 PM »



英脱欧影响言之过早
费希尔:美无意负利率
42点看 2016年7月3日
(纽约2日讯)美联储副主席费希尔表示,目前说英国脱欧是否影响美国经济展望还太早,必须等待和观察该事件如何影响美国及全球经济。

他接受CNBC采访时表说,5月非农报告后,美国经济很不错。对于美国前景展望来说,非农报告比英国脱欧更重要,美联储没计划实施负利率。


“美联储不得不等待和观察英国脱欧的影响。对于英国来说,英国脱欧是非常重大的事件,对于欧洲来说也很重要。”

他表示,美国与英国的直接贸易,不太会受到英国脱欧的影响。但是英国脱欧对英国和欧洲来说,会有很多后续事宜,这是美联储需要考虑的。

费希尔担忧的问题包括:英国经济是否能迅速地适应新的转变,以及其它欧盟国家是否会效仿英国。

在被问及美联储是否考虑像其它主要央行那样实施负利率,他称不太可能。

他表示,央行官员们不会对任何事情说“永不”,但是如果说有一件事情非常不想做的话,那么就是实施负利率。美联储没有计划实施负利率,也会尽可能避免走到这一步。


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Re: FED
« Reply #158 on: July 05, 2016, 08:27:33 AM »



Fed Will Tighten Before Rate Hike: S&P 500 Risk
Jul. 4.16 | About: SPDR S&P (SPY) Get Alerts
Elazar Advisors, LLC   Elazar Advisors, LLCFollow(2,383 followers)
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Summary

The Fed specifically cites their high reserves as a risk to inflation.

The Fed said their inflation mandate is in plain site.

Opinions are great but markets need a catalyst. Houston we have a catalyst.

The Fed led by near mandate inflation will likely begin lowering reserves which will hit markets.

We show here that the Fed's plan is to reduce reserves BEFORE they NEED to raise rates, which is why we expect that now.



(Picture: We love the Fed's official crest.)

Summary: We expect Fed reserve balances (which correlate to market prices) to start moving lower which will hit markets. We believe the Fed is currently near their inflation mandate, which will be the catalyst.

On the Fed website, they ask themselves an important question.

The Fed's Public Question To Themselves:

"How will the Federal Reserve ensure that the size of its balance sheet won't lead to excessive inflation?"

Their Return Answer:

"The Committee has the tools it needs to tighten monetary policy at the appropriate time."

Investors Too Focused On Fed "Rate" Moves

We will now show the Fed will likely use other tools besides rates to tighten first (we expect that to hit markets (NYSEARCA:SPY)).

Please watch.

What are the "tools it needs?" Rates, yes. But they have other tools too like the reserve balances themselves that ballooned after the 2008 crash.

For this understanding, we have to agree on an assumption. Our assumption is we listen very carefully to what the Fed says, how it's said and the order it is said. Fair? Especially from the Fed and especially on a planned public website with huge swaths of time to decide each word and their order.

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Re: FED
« Reply #159 on: July 06, 2016, 06:35:22 PM »



Brexit and other uncertainties mean Fed can be patient: Fed's Dudley
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Demonstrators take part in a protest aimed at showing London's solidarity with the European Union following the recent EU referendum, inTrafalgar Square, central London, Britain June 28, 2016.
Dylan Martinez | Reuters
Demonstrators take part in a protest aimed at showing London's solidarity with the European Union following the recent EU referendum, inTrafalgar Square, central London, Britain June 28, 2016.
The Federal Reserve can be patient on raising interest rates due to low inflation and uncertainties over prospects for the U.S. economy, including Britain's vote to leave the European Union, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday.

"If you strip out the energy sector, inflation is still a little below what we would like... so that allows us to be patient in terms of letting the economy run with accommodative monetary policy in place," Dudley said. "If inflation were higher ... we could probably be a little more aggressive in terms of monetary policy.

"With uncertainties about the outlook and inflation being lower than desired, it allows us to be a little more patient," he said, adding the so-called Brexit vote is among the "clouds on the horizon" for the U.S. economy

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Re: FED
« Reply #160 on: July 07, 2016, 05:47:46 AM »



Interest rates: Why the Fed isn't going to get what it wants
Out of three things the Federal Reserve says it needs to raise rates, one is virtually guaranteed not to happen any time soon.
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Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.   Fed Minutes: Prudent to wait for Brexit vote
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It's hurry-up-and-wait time at the Federal Reserve.

U.S. central bank officials need three things in order to substantively consider hiking interest rates for the first time in 2016, they explained in meeting minutes issued Wednesday: confirmation that growth is picking up, jobs gains that are sufficient, and inflation that's rising to a target pegged by several economists at 2 percent.

Two of these things are iffy, in terms of their immediate prospects, and one is downright unlikely. U.S. inflation flagged in the wake of the global financial crisis and has been well short of 2 percent. Economic data and jobs numbers may not match Fed expectations either. It doesn't seem as if the Fed can raise rates, at least not in its meeting later this month, and probably not at all this year.

At least, that's what the market sentiment is.

Janet Yellen
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Janet Yellen
The market has almost totally written off the notion that rates will rise. The CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks market sentiment about the probability of a Federal Open Market Committee rate hike, effectively resigned itself to the expectation that there will be no July hike. But market watchers have come around to realize that monetary policy crafted to steer U.S. banks away from collapse have become the norm — and the lingering issue is if, or when, the FOMC can depart from the new normal.

"We don't have a full-blown banking crisis now in the U.S.," said S&P Global Market Intelligence banks analyst Erik Oja.

Another key focal point for the Fed — economic data — will be coming in the form of spending, manufacturing and other important points in the next few weeks and leading up to September, which is the next time after July that the FOMC will be able to consider hiking rates. FedWatch data suggest that a September hike is almost as improbable as one later this month; but economists like Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna say they're sticking to their expectation of one hike later this year. A few more rocky jobs reports might scotch that altogether.

And then there's jobs: May's job figures were sufficient to give FOMC members some pause about what declining unemployment figures mean for their rate decision, although Fed members said Wednesday they were reluctant to base any decisions on one report alone. That makes this Friday's jobs figures even more crucial, regardless of what the Fed gleans from them. But it's certain that Fed leadership isn't bullish on the U.S. economy right now — Tarullo made that abundantly clear in his Wednesday speech.

Tarullo told attendees of a Wall Street Journal event on Wednesday that he needs to be "more convinced" on inflation before the Fed moves forward with a rate hike. With a goal of 2 percent, the FOMC — and markets — may be in for a long wait.

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Re: FED
« Reply #161 on: July 07, 2016, 05:51:00 AM »



The Federal Reserve is confusing investors, Bill Gross says
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Investors are confused, Bill Gross says   Investors are confused, Bill Gross says
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The Federal Reserve's communication practices are confusing investors, noted bond investor Bill Gross said Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday released minutes from its June meeting, which showed policymakers decided to hold off hiking interest rates until they had a handle on the implications of the Brexit vote.

Several participants also expressed concerns about the committee's communications and whether it was being fully effective in informing the public.

Gross agreed.

Bill Gross
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Bill Gross
"Investors become confused when they look at the green dots as high as they are and hear from others that suggest reliance on old standard models," the manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund said on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

"I think ultimately what the Fed really wants to do is keep the interest rate low and perhaps keep curve as positive as possible, because 10-year rates and 30-year rates at these levels are not conducive for economic health for many financial institutions like banks and insurance companies."

In a note to investors Wednesday, Gross said the contribution of money velocity to GDP growth is coming to an end and may even be creating negative growth thanks to yields that are near zero and negative.

"Our credit-based financial system is sputtering, and risk assets are reflecting that reality even if most players (including central banks) have little clue as to how the game is played," he said in his latest Investment Outlook.

Combined, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have created $12 trillion of quantitative easing, Gross told "Power Lunch."

"Theoretically, that should be enough money to provide prosperity across the globe. It hasn't taken," he said.

That's because for one, the private sector has been subject to regulation. Also, many borrowers don't want to borrow despite low interest rates and many banks don't want to lend based upon the perceived risks of the economy going forward, he explained.

That also means that investors should now worry about recouping their money.

"When money is so overpriced, when interest rates so low and negative, when stocks … are artificially high, then it is time to worry about the return of your money as opposed to the return on your money."

— Reuters contributed to this report

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Re: FED
« Reply #162 on: July 09, 2016, 05:42:34 PM »



U.S. labor market nearing full strength, but Fed seen wanting more
Reuters
12 hours ago
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(Adds Reuters poll)

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U.S. labour market nearing full strength, but Fed seen wanting more Reuters
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Divided Fed silent in June on timing of next rate hike MarketWatch
Fed minutes show uncertainties about job slowdown and Brexit Associated Press
[$$] Fed Minutes: Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook The Wall Street Journal
By Ann Saphir

SAN FRANCISCO, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. employers have been adding enough jobs over the last six months to put the economy on track to full employment by the end of this year, but that prospect alone is unlikely to get the Federal Reserve to step on the brakes with interest-rate hikes.

A team of researchers at the Chicago Fed, headed by Dan Aaronson, estimated in April that the U.S. economy was about a million jobs shy of the Fed's full employment goal.

June's outsize jobs gain, reported Friday, lifts the average monthly jobs increase over the past 6 months to 172,000. While that's a step down from the 200,000 or more jobs added monthly last year, it still well outpaces the 50,000 new jobs a month needed to accommodate population growth, based on Aaronson's estimate. That puts the economy on pace to reach full employment by December.

But Fed officials have already suggested that uncertainty over the global impact of Britain's intended withdrawal from the European Union will keep them on policy hold for the time being.

Wall Street's top banks unanimously expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their next two meetings in July and September and are almost evenly split over whether there will be a rate rise by year end, a Reuters poll on Friday showed.

Stubbornly low inflation, and hints that inflation expectations have dropped, also has policymakers inclined to wait. The Fed targets 2-percent inflation but, while underlying measures of inflation have firmed in recent months, most measures suggest it still has some ways to go.

"I want to be more convinced that the underlying rate of inflation is around 2 percent," Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said in Washington this week.

The 12-month average of the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which some Fed officials follow as a measure of underlying inflation, registered 1.8 percent in May.

Measures of inflation expectations, seen as key to future actual inflation, have fallen. A market measure of bond investors' 10-year inflation outlook, known as the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation breakeven rate, fell to 1.45 percent earlier this week, down from a recent peak of 1.8 percent on April 29.

Friday's jobs report offered little cheer on the inflation front, with hourly wages rising only 2 cents in June, far less than could be expected if labor markets were tightening enough to begin pushing upwards on overall prices.

"We'd like to see a little more inflation," New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday when speaking with employers and bankers in Binghamton, New York. "But we don't want inflation without wage gains."

History shows that the Fed has typically allowed the unemployment rate to dip below what is seen as a sustainable level during expansions. This would allow the labor market to tighten further and could provide the extra oomph needed to lift prices higher.

Traders are betting as much. Even after the strong June jobs report they see a less-than-even chance of even one rate hike before next June, based on futures tied to the Fed's policy rate.

Forecasts from Fed officials also suggest history will repeat. Unemployment ticked up to 4.9 percent in June, Friday's report showed. Fed forecasts from last month show policymakers expect unemployment to be below that level, which they see as sustainable in the long run, until 2018.

(With reporting by Jonathan Spicer, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Richard Leong and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

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Re: FED
« Reply #163 on: July 10, 2016, 04:30:09 PM »



2016-07-10 14:52
美国缘何再三推迟执行“沃尔克规则”?
美国联邦储备委员会日前宣布,将“沃尔克规则”中有关限制银行机构投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定暂缓执行一年。这是美联储在其法定授权范围内第三次、也是最后一次延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期。

(图:法新社)
(美国‧华盛顿10日讯)美国联邦储备委员会日前宣布,将“沃尔克规则”中有关限制银行机构投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定暂缓执行一年。这是美联储在其法定授权范围内第三次、也是最后一次延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期。这是美国华尔街与监管机构长期博弈妥协的结果,也折射出金融危机后美国在维护金融体系稳定、促进经济复苏与保持金融竞争力之间谨慎寻求平衡的艰难。

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鋻于银行机构过度投机是造成2008年金融危机的重要原因之一,前美联储主席保罗.沃尔克在2009年担任奥巴马经济复苏顾问委员会主席期间,提出一系列禁止银行及其附属机构从事自营交易和其他投机性交易活动的提议,被统称为“沃尔克规则”。这些提议经过修改,成为后来旨在改革美国金融监管体系的《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法》(简称《多德-弗兰克法》)的核心条款。这份法案于2010年7月获美国国会通过,被认为是20世纪30年代以来美国最为严厉的金融监管改革。

简而言之,“沃尔克规则”就是要禁止银行机构使用自有资金投资营利,但可以豁免做市交易和对冲交易,其实质是在银行机构的日常业务和华尔街投机交易之间划清界限,分离享受联邦政府存款保险的商业银行与影子银行体系,促使商业银行回归吸收存款、发放贷款的传统信贷仲介功能,显著减少投机和套利业务,避免将客户存款和整体金融体系置于危险境地,使纳税人被迫为救助华尔街埋单。

但由于“沃尔克规则”会削弱银行机构的重要利润来源并可能对市场流动性造成影响,遭到华尔街的强烈反对。

根据《多德-弗兰克法》的规定,“沃尔克规则”原计划于2012年7月21日生效,同时给予银行机构两年的过渡期,到2014年7月以前满足相应的监管要求;但直到2013年12月,美联储和其他金融监管机构才联合公布“沃尔克规则”的最终版本,完成相关规则的制定。

为给予银行机构更多时间适应“沃尔克规则”的监管要求,美联储于2013年底同意暂缓执行限制银行机构从事自营交易及投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定,将“沃尔克规则”的过渡期延长一年至2015年7月。根据《多德-弗兰克法》的规定,美联储有权在符合立法目标和不损害公众利益的前提下延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期,每次可延长一年,总共延期不超过3年。

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早在“沃尔克规则”生效前,不少美国银行机构已开始关闭自营交易业务,但要按规定退出对冲基金和私募股权基金的大量投资业务则要花费更长时间。金融危机前,美国银行机构曾大举投资各项基金,而“沃尔克规则”规定,一家银行对任何单只基金的投资不得超过基金资产规模的3%,且总投资额不得超过该银行一级资本的3%。

为保证银行有序剥离投资基金的业务和防止市场混乱,在美国证券业和金融市场协会(SIFMA)等机构的游说下,美联储于2014年底宣布给予银行机构额外一年的宽限时间至2016年7月以满足“沃尔克规则”对基金投资的规定,但限制银行机构自营交易的规定必须于2015年7月生效。

今年7月,美联储宣布给予银行机构最后一年的宽限时间来出售在对冲基金和私募股权基金的投资业务。这意味着,“沃尔克规则”最终将于2017年7月21日全面实施,那时距离《多德-弗兰克法》获得国会批准已过去七年。这也从一个侧面反映出,金融危机后美国落实金融监管改革的纠结与艰难。

一方面,华尔街仍在积极游说和施压美国政府取消和放松某些金融监管规定,美国监管机构在听取华尔街意见的同时,也在慢慢落实和学习金融监管新规的影响,希望这些新规可以起到维护美国金融体系稳定的作用,但不会对华尔街金融机构的盈利能力、美国企业的融资成本和美国经济复苏产生太大影响。

另一方面,美国也不希望在金融监管改革方面走得太快,担心“单边突进”会削弱美国金融业的竞争力。例如,“沃尔克规则”花了很大篇幅要求银行制定内部合规计划以保证该项规则的执行,大大提高了银行的运营成本,在其他国家没有同步执行“沃尔克规则”的背景下,可能导致更多国际金融机构将部份业务转移到欧洲和其他地区,这会削弱美国金融业的竞争力。

“沃尔克规则”最终将如何全面落实以及将对美国金融业产生什么影响仍有待观察,正在进行的2016年美国总统大选带来了新的不确定性。众议院金融服务委员会主席、共和党议员杰布.亨萨林6月份已提出一项以推翻“沃尔克规则”为核心的放松金融监管改革的草案,可能会被纳入共和党的金融改革议程。如果共和党赢得11月美国总统大选,同时继续掌控参众两院多数席位,美国金融监管改革存在重新调整甚至退步的可能性。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.07.10

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Re: FED
« Reply #164 on: July 10, 2016, 08:10:10 PM »



2016-07-10 19:11
联储局今年升息无望
英国公投脱欧引发的金融余震一波接一波。
英国公投脱欧引发的金融余震一波接一波。

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最新一波反映在英国商业地产市场上。多家英国地产基金暂停交易,引发恐慌再度来袭,英镑一举跌破1.28美元,创1985年以来新低。

美联储局决策亦受影响,其6月政策会议记录暗示,将会维持利率不变直至厘清英国退欧公投所产生的影响。金融市场已经排除了美联储今年升息的可能性,但避险需求料推动美元未来一年上涨。

另一边厢,澳洲联邦选举结果仍不明朗,标普下调该国主权评级展望至负面,警告可能在两年内调降债信评等。澳洲央行周二放弃行动机会,等待月底的通胀数据。

展望本周,英国、加拿大、韩国和马来西亚央行将公布政策决议,还有多位美联储局官员发表讲话。数据方面,中国将公布通膨、贸易、工业生产等多项数据,其他重要数据包括欧美主要国家的通胀率。

英镑创新低

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英镑上周开局略企稳喘息,但之后走势再度转差,上周三一度跌穿1.28美元,最低跌至1.2798美元,创1985年以来新低,因市场愈发担忧英国退欧对金融市场以及全球经济产生更广泛的影响。

路透访查的超过60位外汇策略师平均预计,英镑将进一步下滑,到年底挫至1.27美元。不过份析师给出的预估值跨度很大。

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星洲日报‧投资致富‧外汇利率‧2016.07.10

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Re: FED
« Reply #165 on: July 12, 2016, 07:12:05 AM »



Gold Prices, Bonds Ignoring Hawkish Fed Talk

Monday July 11, 2016 12:50
(Kitco News) - Gold prices and bond markets are ignoring the latest comments from Federal Reserve policy hawk Esther George.

George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, said, at a conference in Lake Ozark, Missouri, that interest rates are too low given the progress that the U.S. Economy has made. Fed-Esther George

"Keeping rates too low can create risks," she said at the event.

Although she agreed to keep interest rates on hold at the June meeting, George reiterated Monday that she supports a gradual rise in interest rates.


She noted that after a weak start to the year, growth in the second quarter shows the economy is bouncing back and that the country is close to full employment.

Although George supports higher interest rates, she didn’t provide any guidance as to when interest rates will be moving higher.

George’s comments had no impact on gold prices, which are trading in slightly positive territory; August gold futures last traded at $1,359 an ounce, relatively flat on the day.

Her comments also haven’t impacted interest rate expectations. CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures are still pricing in a 0% chance of a rate hike in July and only a 6% chance of a hike in September and November.

The highest probably of a rate hike are not seen until June of 2017, where markets are pricing in only a 32.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike.

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Re: FED
« Reply #166 on: July 14, 2016, 08:20:53 AM »



ed's Mester Says Helicopter Money "The Next Step" In US Monetary Policy

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by Tyler Durden
Jul 13, 2016 1:24 PM
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Think "helicopter money" is/will be confined only to Japan, which has been sending conflicting trial balloons about this unprecedented next step in monetary policy for the past two days (first Japan's Senkei reported that the government will be adopting “helicopter money” followed by a government spokesman denying the report, then followed by a separate Bloomberg report about a 10T yen stimulus plan, the concluding with Abe advisor Koici Hamada saying that "boosting fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time would be effective" in Japan)? Think again.

Speaking overnight in Australia, the Fed's Loretta Mester said "helicopter money" could be considered to stimulate America's economy if conventional monetary policy fails.



As Australia's ABC reports, Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), signalled direct payments to households and  businesses to stoke spending was an option if interest rate cuts and quantitative easing fail.


"We're always assessing tools that we could use," Mester told the ABC's AM program. "In the US we've done quantitative easing and I think that's proven to be useful.


"So it's my view that [helicopter money] would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.

Mester's qualified support for the use of "helicopter money" comes amid expectations that the Bank of Japan is poised to unleash a major fiscal stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yen ($130 billion) to kickstart its flat-lining economy.

The surprising comments from a Fed hawk, come on the heels of two other Fed presidents hinting that more QE could be used as additional "ammo" should the US economy relapse back into recession, and as major central banks consider unconventional policy tools in a world of slowing growth, low inflation and record low interest rates. Mester said that concerns about the Brexit vote were a consideration in June when the Federal Reserve left rates at between 0.25 and 0.5 per cent, a consideration  While the immediate impact of Brexit rattled financial markets, Mester said the Fed would be looking to medium and long term fallout.

"Between now and our next meeting and future meetings we are all going to be assessing what the impact of that decision will mean in terms of economic conditions and how they effect the medium term outlook for the US economy," she explained.

Ironically, the same Mester said she believes there are risks in keeping US interest rates too low for too long. "For the US, if we overstay our welcome at zero then of course there would be financial stability risks," Dr Mester acknowledged. So her "solution" is not just more easing, but outright monetary paradrops.

"I don't think we're behind the curve in the US on interest rates, but it's something we have to assess going forward and where the risk balance is."

With the next FOMC rate setting meeting scheduled for July 28, Dr Mester declined to be drawn on whether there would be another US rate rise this year. However, she signalled her support for moving rates higher and that rising employment and inflation meant "a gradual increasing pace in interest rates is appropriate."

"I've been one of the more positive members in terms of the US economy. I do think we've made significant progress on the employment part of our mandate and the recent inflation data has been encouraging," Dr Mester said.

"But of course the timing of the next and the ultimate slope of that gradual pace will depend on how the risks around the outlook evolve."

And if all else fails, there is always Bernanke's helicopter, first in Japan then coming to the US.


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Re: FED
« Reply #167 on: July 16, 2016, 11:15:36 AM »



Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

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by Tyler Durden
Jul 15, 2016 4:35 PM
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Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Janet Yellen, in my opinion, is about to make a critical mistake. She is not going to raise rates in July.

Why is this a mistake? Simple. No matter when you think there will be an economic recession, there will eventually be one. As I have repeatedly stated, the biggest problem for the Federal Reserve has been getting caught at the “zero bound” of interest rates during the onset of a recessionary contraction. Such a combination of events would leave the Fed without a very valuable monetary policy tool.

Come July, Janet Yellen and the FOMC are going to once again “punt” hiking interest rates in favor of waiting for “global instability” due to the “Brexit” to subside. However, as stated this is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, with the markets making new all-time highs, there is a “price” cushion available for the markets to absorb a rate hike without breaking important downside support as shown below.


SP500-MarketUpdate-071516

Secondly, with Central Banks globally flooding the markets with liquidity, as discussed yesterday, a further “shock absorber” is currently engaged in softening the impact of a rate hike.

“But, for now, a rash of global Central Banks continue to support asset prices by increasing accommodative policies either through additional reductions in interest rates or direct injections of liquidity. As Matt King from Citi recently noted:
‘It has been a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest level since 2013.’”
Central_bank-liquidity

Lastly, the economy is likely going to show a bit of “strength” in upcoming reports, with slightly stronger inflationary pressures. This pickup in economic strength will be another inventory restocking cycle following several months of weakness. As has been in the past, it will be transient and that strength will evaporate as quickly as it came.

If I was Janet Yellen, I would hike interest rates by .50 bps immediately in a surprise announcement and use the price and Central Bank liquidity cushions to soften the blow. This would move the Fed towards its goal of reloading its primary policy tool while there is some ability to temporarily control the outcome of the rate hike.


But that is just me. She won’t do it.

Instead, she will pass on hiking rates at the upcoming meeting with promises of rate hikes to come before the end of the year. Unfortunately, for her, this is the “trap.”


The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”

The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.

For now, here is your reading list for the weekend.

“The stock market is like a wife. When you come home you never know if you will be greeted with a kiss, or hit with a frying pan.”  – C. Vern Myers

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Re: FED
« Reply #168 on: July 20, 2016, 11:23:29 AM »



2016-07-20 10:25
联储局传声筒:若经济数据稳‧美国最快9月加息
《华尔街日报》记者、获称储局“传声筒”的Jon Hilsenrath指,若美国经济数据表现稳定,美国联储最快会于9月加息。
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(美国‧纽约20日讯)《华尔街日报》记者、获称储局“传声筒”的Jon Hilsenrath指,若美国经济数据表现稳定,美国联储最快会于9月加息。

Jon Hilsenrath指,鉴于金融市场在英国公投退欧后已逐渐稳定,美联储官员正在为年内加息寻求更多线索;据指,不少美联储官员公开表态,指他们对加息可更有耐心,故推算本月28日FOMC会议将维持利率不变。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.07.20

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Re: FED
« Reply #169 on: July 24, 2016, 06:46:25 PM »



 0 0 0 New
Indecisive Fed expected to again hold rates steady
AFP | July 24, 2016
federal-reserveWASHINGTON: In 1890, the psychologist William James wrote that there was “no more miserable human being than one in whom nothing is habitual but indecision.”
Indecision is certainly not the habit of Federal Reserve policy makers. But as a divided Fed gathers next week to consider interest rates, they may yet again revise positions that have repeatedly shifted since December.
Most observers do not expect the Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets monetary policy, to raise the crucial federal funds rate when they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington.
“I think it’s very plausible you’ll see zero” change, said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Policy makers do not want to surprise markets, he added.
“The last thing on earth that they want to do is a rate hike that isn’t anticipated.”
For markets, the last eight months have still been an emotional roller coaster.
In December, the Fed increased rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
The decision drew a line under post-financial crisis rate policies, a time of easy money when the Fed also expanded its balance sheet by trillions in order to nurse the economy back to health.
It was also a show of confidence in the US recovery — confidence that would soon coincide with nagging doubt.
Repeated reverses

In the short time since the start of “policy normalization,” the Fed’s data-driven approach to monetary policy has been buffeted by the changing winds of political developments and wavering economic indices.
In January, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said 2016 could see three to four rate increases.
But the following month, Chair Janet Yellen said conditions were worsening and even raised the unlikely possibility of reversing course and cutting rates.
The end of May found her saying that a rate hike would “probably” be appropriate in the “coming months.”
Yet three weeks later, the FOMC split, with some members calling for a rate hike even though the committee ultimately decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50 percent.
Britain’s looming June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union was an important factor in keeping rates as they were, Yellen said.
Since then, Britain shocked the world by voting to exit the EU, sparking fresh turbulence in markets and causing the International Monetary Fund to downgrade global growth forecasts by a tenth of a percentage point through next year.
The disagreements in June could reflect the FOMC’s fraught attempts to read economic data, like job creation numbers that have swung sharply the past two months.
Some FOMC members believe continued low rates may foster price bubbles and over-leveraged investments, or that delaying a rate hike now may force the Fed to bump rates up abruptly down the line, delivering a shock to the system.
Fed governor Daniel Tarullo told The Wall Street Journal this month that he does not see either scenario as a pressing threat.
According to Tim Duy, senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum, the Fed has focused on rate policy to the exclusion of another tool — balance sheet policy — which could help it provide financial stability in a period of persistently low interest rates and low inflation.
By selling some of its longer-term securities, the Fed could drive up rates and broaden the yield curve — the spread between the rates on short- and longer-term securities.
Doing so would effectively be the reverse of the policy of the past seven years which aimed at recovering from the Great Recession.
“This whole discussion assumes the Fed will find it necessary to tighten policy,” Duy wrote in an email. “When or whether that is really true is another issue.”

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Re: FED
« Reply #170 on: July 27, 2016, 08:18:01 AM »



Fed may edge closer to rate hike
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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The Fed could sound slightly more upbeat about the economy after its meeting Wednesday, and that could be enough to reinforce Wall Street's growing view that a rate hike is coming in December.

What the market is hoping to hear in the Fed's post-meeting statement Wednesday is how it now views Brexit and its impact on the world economy. The U.K. economy has already shown some signs of strain following the June 23 vote to exit the European Union, but U.S. data has only gotten stronger.

That's important since Fed officials cited Brexit as one of the reasons why they did not hike interest rates in June, along with the surprising weakness in May's jobs report. The jobs market has since bounced back with June's 287,000 nonfarm payrolls.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
"We've got record levels of equities. We have volatility that's settled down. There's not much concern about contagion through financial institutions. The 10-year Treasury has backed up a bit. There seems to be a settling comfort that while conditions in the U.K. are not normal, it's not likely to produce much carryover here. That has the potential to influence the timing of the next Fed move. A lot of us are looking for any diagnosis of that situation," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust.

There is no expectation for a rate hike Wednesday, but the market odds for a September rate hike have risen to nearly 30 percent on a spate of recent data. That includes Tuesday's new home sales for June, which grew at the best pace since early 2008.

This follows a string of better than expected indicators, such as retail sales for June and the employment report. Traders have been tracking a move up in the widely watched Citigroup economic surprise index for several weeks now, and that has been signaling the Fed could move to hike rates this year after all.

Following the Brexit vote, expectations in the Fed funds futures market were at a low point, where the market bets were even pointing to a rate cut in December and no rate hike for next year. As of Tuesday, expectations turned much higher, to a near 30 percent chance of a hike in September and a 49 percent chance for December.

"I think they at least need to put the rhetoric out there that a hike is on the table. My sense is their line of thinking before Brexit has been restored. That would mean there's at least one hike on the table this year for them," said Jack Ablin, CIO at BMO Private Bank.

The Fed may not tweak the language in its statement too much or put any new emphasis on timing. Robert Tipp, Prudential Financial head of global bonds and foreign exchange, said the Fed will also not want to trigger market volatility or a move higher in the dollar that could hurt the U.S. economy, in anticipation of a rate hike.

"I think they're going to want to try to open the door for rate hikes later in the year. It's a delicate balancing act. They don't want to sound so grim about the outlook that would lead people to believe the Fed knows something the rest of us don't," he said. "At the same time, they need to exude enough optimism to make the case that a hike is something they could get away with, but in the best interest of everyone."

The Fed is also preparing to swim upstream against a group of central banks that are expected to keep easing. The Bank of Japan this week is expected to take more action, including ETF purchases, and the Bank of England said it could ease in August while the European Central Bank may move in September.

"I think the Fed is probably not altogether happy in sensing that equity markets around the world are trading largely on expectations that no central bank will have the courage to exercise policy any time soon. We're back to the Greenspan put," Tannenbaum said.

Tipp said while he sees slightly less than a 50/50 chance of a 2016 hike, it's more likely that it will be December rather than September.

"December is much more likely than September. I think by just leaving the door cracked open to hiking interest rates, they'll be trying to keep their options open," he said. "In all likelihood, they're probably expecting European data led by the U.K. to tip over in the next couple of months," he said. "I think optimistically they would see U.S. growth powering right through and Europe getting less worse than feared."

Some analysts believe there could be market volatility around the November presidential election, and that's another reason the December meeting would be more likely.

Some Fed watchers said there could be better opportunities than the meeting statement to find out what the Fed was thinking. Fed Chair Janet Yellen should be at the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of next month, and that should be a good forum if she wants to tweak the message, since more data will be available.

"They could come up with other ways to make it sound like they're more confident. I think the statement is going to sound a little less dire, but I'm not sure it's going to sound so strong," said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The minutes matter more."

Besides the 2 p.m. release of the Fed statement, there are durable goods orders at 8:30 am. and pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Earnings are expected in the morning from Boeing, Coca-Cola, Deutsche Bank, GlaxoSmithKline, Comcast, Mondelez, Fiat Chrysler, Nissan, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Six Flags, Anthem, State Street and Nintendo.

After the bell, results are expected from Facebook, Amgen, Marriott, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Whole Foods, Groupon, The Cheesecake Factory, GoPro and Pioneer Natural Resources

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Re: FED
« Reply #171 on: July 28, 2016, 10:20:29 AM »



美联储维持基准利率不变
对9月升息保持开放
283点看 2016年7月28日
美联储今年只剩下3场例会,随着近来经济数据好转,美联储似仍未放弃在9月升息的可能性。图为美联储主席叶伦。
美联储今年只剩下3场例会,随着近来经济数据好转,美联储似仍未放弃在9月升息的可能性。图为美联储主席叶伦。

(纽约28日讯)美联储于大马时间周四凌晨2时宣布,维持基准利率不变于0.25%到0.5%,一如市场预期,但也在声明中示意对9月升息选项仍保持开放。


美联储在决策声明中指出,美国经济面临的风险已受抑制,劳动市场也日趋紧俏,暗示情势已更有利于升息。

市场认为,美联储的立场转趋鹰派,美股应声挫跌,相较于Fed发布决策声明前的游走平盘,标普500指数跌0.3%至2,163点,美元指数也小升0.1%至97.242。

联邦公开市场操作(FOMC)发布的决策声明表示:“经济展望的近期风险已逐渐消除。”FOMC也表示,家庭支出“已强劲成长”,同时企业投资“始终疲软”,美联储也重申,预期通膨中期将升至2%的目标。

FOMC也重申,预期“经济情势将以保证只会逐步调升联邦资金利率的方式好转”,决策声明并未明确指涉下次可能升息的时间点。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: FED
« Reply #172 on: August 01, 2016, 11:56:41 AM »



New York Fed President Dudley says Federal Reserve may hike interest rates faster than the market expects
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
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The market shouldn't be ruling out the possibility the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again this year, William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said on Monday.

"Market expectations, to my eye, derived from federal funds futures prices, which price in no more than one 25 basis-point rate hike through the end of 2017, … appear to be too complacent," he told a conference of central bankers and financial regulators on the Indonesian island of Bali.

Dudley said he expected the U.S. economy to grow around 2 percent annualized over the next 18 months, boosted by improved consumption.

"If the upcoming information validates my view of the outlook, then U.S. monetary policy will need to move at a faster pace than implied by futures prices to a more neutral posture as the labor market tightens further and U.S. inflation rises," Dudley said.

Additionally, Dudley noted that the market didn't appear to be giving much weight to the possibility that the economy could grow faster than expected.

"The risks to growth from Brexit and other international developments could fade away. If such events were to occur, this might necessitate an even faster pace of adjustment," he said.

"It's premature to rule out further monetary policy tightening this year. It depends on the data, broadly defined, and as we all know, that's not something one can predict with any great accuracy," he said.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its overnight interest rate target in the 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent range, but noted that the labor market had "strengthened" and said other indicators were pointing to growth.

The Fed last hiked its overnight rate in December after keeping it anchored near zero for seven years.

On the downside, the FOMC statement noted that inflation remains mired and is "expected to remain low in the near term" and then rise as the decline in energy prices turns and the labor market continues to strengthen.

Dudley said on Monday that the medium-term risks to the economy were "somewhat skewed to the downside."

For that reason, he said it was "broadly appropriate" for market expectations to shift toward a flatter path for U.S. interest rates.

He noted that the Fed takes a "risk management approach," and that "we need to be a bit more careful about the risk of tightening monetary policy in a manner that proves to be premature as compared to the alternative risk of being a little late."

But he noted that if the Fed were to be late in responding to inflation risks in the economy, policy could be adjusted by raising short-term interest rates more quickly.

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Re: FED
« Reply #173 on: August 02, 2016, 07:41:06 AM »



Fed’s Dudley Warns It Is Premature to Rule Out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year
Says there is ‘room for improvement’ in Fed communications
By KATY BURNE
Updated Aug. 1, 2016 1:26 a.m. ET
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley argued for continued caution over the path of U.S. interest rates, given uncertainty over the global outlook, but warned that traders who have been ruling out an interest-rate increase later this year are growing too complacent.

In remarks delivered to a joint central-bank seminar in Bali between the New York Fed and Bank Indonesia, Mr. Dudley also laid out a defense of the...

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Re: FED
« Reply #174 on: August 08, 2016, 12:21:27 PM »



2016-08-08 11:32
美联储官员警告美国经济或陷长期低增长
美国联邦储备委员会理事杰罗姆.鲍威尔昨日表示,美国经济陷入长期低速增长困境的风险正在上升,这意味着美联储需要以非常缓慢的步伐加息。
(美国.华盛顿8日讯)美国联邦储备委员会理事杰罗姆.鲍威尔昨日表示,美国经济陷入长期低速增长困境的风险正在上升,这意味着美联储需要以非常缓慢的步伐加息。

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鲍威尔在英国《金融时报》网站当天刊登的采访中说,他比以往更加担心美国经济增长疲软的状况会持续更长时间,美国潜在经济增长率可能更低,这意味着要达到美联储目前对美国经济增长的预期,实际利率水准也要更低。

鲍威尔表示,美国经济增长仍然面临许多来自海外的下行风险,在全球其他地区需求疲软的背景下,美联储很难加息。他认为,美联储下一步加息需满足三大条件:国内需求和就业强劲增长、通膨水准朝着2%的目标回升、不存在明显的全球风险事件。

当被问及上述加息条件在美联储9月份货币政策例会上会否达到时,鲍威尔说,他需要先看到连续两个月非常好的美国就业报告,然后可以就加息展开讨论。他认为,当前美国通膨水准低于2%的目标,美联储可以对加息保持耐心。

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美国劳工部5日公布的数据显示,7月份美国非农部门新增就业岗位25.5万个,高于市场预期的18万个,失业率维持在4.9%不变,显示美国就业市场稳步改善。就业数据向好增加了美联储9月加息的可能性,但更多市场人士认为美联储可能会推迟到12月再加息。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.08.08

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Re: FED
« Reply #175 on: August 11, 2016, 05:52:34 AM »



Ben Bernanke: The Fed's not going to be raising rates for a while
Chastened over forecasting errors, Fed officials will be less likely to tip their hands on how they see the future.
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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 BOE teaching the fed   Should Yellen follow Carney? 
Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 | 3:01 PM ET|03:20
Ben Bernanke thinks his former colleagues at the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates anytime soon.

One of Wall Street's favorite pastimes is trying to discern hidden meaning in language tweaks from Fed officials. But Bernanke, the central bank's former chairman, thinks doing so under current conditions will only lead investors astray.

In part, that's because most Fed officials have been wrong on their economic forecasts over the past several years. They anticipated that economic growth would be stronger, while both the unemployment rate and the natural level of interest rates would be higher.

Chastened over their forecasting errors, Fed officials will be less likely to tip their hands on how they see the future, both in terms of growth and whether they will hike rates.

"It has not been lost on Fed policymakers that the world looks significantly different in some ways than they thought just a few years ago, and that the degree of uncertainty about how the economy and policy will evolve may now be unusually high," Bernanke wrote this week in his most recent blog post for the Brookings Institution, a think tank he joined after leaving the Fed in 2014.

"In general, with policymakers sounding more agnostic and increasingly disinclined to provide clear guidance, Fed-watchers will see less benefit in parsing statements and speeches and more from paying close attention to the incoming data," he added.

Bernanke's successor, Janet Yellen, long has professed that the Federal Open Market Committee over which she presides is "data dependent." However, it's often been unclear which data Yellen and her colleagues watch, as unemployment has fallen well below the Fed's target level, the economy has managed steady if less-than-stellar growth, and stock market levels set new records, spurring worries of asset bubbles.

Ben Bernanke
T.J. Kirkpatrick | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Ben Bernanke
Bernanke examined Fed long-run forecasts starting in 2012 in three areas: output growth, unemployment and the "terminal" fed funds rate, which is what the Fed uses to guide the path of interest rates and reflects where the rate should be in order to promote stable growth. He found that FOMC members have had to scale down consistently.


Source: Brookings Institution

The Fed's expectations that the unemployment rate would be higher could be as much a function of the measure's dynamics: A significant portion of the decline has come from a generational low in labor force participation, which translates into a lower jobless number.

For investors, Bernanke believes the Fed's realization that it has been too optimistic about growth, and that as a result policy is probably less accommodative than it appears, is likely to lead to a reluctance to raise rates. That comes even though "the current policy is not as stimulative as previously thought," he said.

"With a shorter distance to travel to get to a neutral level of the funds rate, rate hikes are seen as less urgent even by those participants inclined to be hawkish," Bernanke wrote.

"In particular, relative to earlier estimates, they see current policy as less accommodative, the labor market as less tight, and inflationary pressures as more limited," he continued. "Moreover, there may be a greater possibility that running the economy a bit 'hot' will lead to better productivity performance over time. The implications of these changes for policy are generally dovish, helping to explain the downward shifts in recent years in the Fed's anticipated trajectory of rates."

2016 has been a particularly rough year for Fed forecasting.

While raising rates for the first time in more than nine years at the December 2015 meeting, FOMC members anticipated four more hikes this year. However, the market now is betting that there will be none, with the next likely date for a move being June 2017

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Re: FED
« Reply #176 on: August 12, 2016, 06:08:14 PM »



2016-08-12 15:16
美国升息.伯南克:短期内不会升息
联储局前主席伯南克在部落格发文指出,由于联储局近几年来经济预测经常失准,且普遍有高估的情况,联储局将引以为戒,短期内都不会升息。
(美国.华盛顿12日讯)联储局前主席伯南克在部落格发文指出,由于联储局近几年来经济预测经常失准,且普遍有高估的情况,联储局将引以为戒,短期内都不会升息。

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伯南克是在布鲁金斯研究院的部落格发表这篇最新文章。

伯南克进一步说明指出,主因在于联储局最近几年在经济预测方面老是失准,“他们一直认为经济成长一定会走强,就业成长与利率也会双双扬升,但事实却不然。”

他说,联储局官员将引以为戒,在有关成长与升息的预测方面将较不可能发表看法,联储局决策官员很清楚,当前的情况与几年前已大不相同,攸关经济与货币政策可能走向的不确定性如今是格外的高。

伯南克认为,联储局已了解到其在经济成长预测方面过于乐观,也就是说货币政策可能也不够宽松,使得联储局好一段时间都不会升息,虽然升息后联邦基金利率离长期正常水位就会愈近,但即便是立场鹰派的决策官员都认为没有升息的急迫性。”

2016年对于联储局来说尤其是最难预测的一年,去年12月决策会议在决议启动9年多来首次升息时,联储局原本还向外界释出今年可能再升息4次的预测讯息,但迄今都按兵不动,市场甚至认定要等到明年6月才会再升息。

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多数经济学家:12月加息

经济学家正在形成一个共识,即联储局要到12月份会议才会加息。

接受《华尔街日报》调查的62名经济学家中,约71%认为联储局将在12月13至14日的会议上提高短期利率。这一比例较7月调查大幅增加,当时只有半数受访经济学家认为联储局将在12月份采取行动,而6月调查时只有7.8%经济学家这样认为。

上述经济学家的看法反映出过去几周表现不一的经济数据以及仍未稳定的全球经济形势。本月调查仅有七名受访经济学家认为联储局将在9月20-21日会议上采取行动,四名经济学家认为联储局将在11月1-2日的会议上采取行动。

经济学家在接受调查时表示,他们不确定经济前景的不确定能及时变得明朗,从而让联储局在9月20-21日的会议上加息。但他们认为,到了12月份,经济前景应当更为明朗,这将让联储局在2016年至少加息一次。联储局上次加息是在2015年12月,当时将利率上调了0.25%。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.08.12

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Re: FED
« Reply #177 on: August 23, 2016, 08:22:59 AM »



Why markets may be setting up for a Yellen surprise
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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Markets are only half listening to the Fed, and that leaves room for a bigger reaction if Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounds as hawkish as the comments of some other Fed officials suggest she might.

"The market has shut them out. The market is only pricing a 50/50 chance of a hike this year. If they want to get this done, and they don't want to shock the market and create a whole repeat of last year's market volatility from not going [last September] … they have to inject the expectations of another rate hike. The best defense is a good offense," said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds and foreign exchange at Prudential Fixed Income.


Pete Marovich | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With little to sway the markets this week amid very light trading, markets are fixated on Yellen's Friday speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual Fed symposium is sometimes used by Fed officials to make important policy statements. However, this year's topic is seen as a discussion for the longer term and is called "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future."

Over the weekend, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer joined two other recent hawkish-sounding Fed speakers, who were pushing the idea in speeches last week that the Fed is close to raising rates. Fischer's message was more on the economy, and he said the Fed is close to meeting its objectives, a comment taken as slightly hawkish.

"I think the confluence out there suggests that there must be a consensus across the Fed that they will get a rate hike done this year, if they can," said Tipp. "I think she will aim for the dovish hike. The problem with the dovish hike is I don't think you can do that in September. If you want to do so, a dovish hike is much easier in December. If you do it in September, you're going to have a lot of participants pricing in another hike in December." Tipp said the Fed wants the door to be open for a September hike, though it's highly unlikely it would act then.

"It's just not going to happen in September, in my opinion," said McCarthy. "If anything else, the Fed does not want to throw itself in the crosshairs of this potentially ugly presidential campaign one week before the first debate."

The dollar strengthened overnight Sunday and early Monday on Fischer's comment but by Monday afternoon, the dollar index was up less than 0.1 percent. Fischer is seen as a key member of the core of the Fed, along with Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley, who said last week that the Fed could hike as soon as September.

"Once again it's a confusing message. On the one hand, they're telling us they may raise rates soon, but on the other hand monetary policy hasn't been very effective. We need help on the fiscal side. This is one of those times when we have to pay a lot of attention to the Fed, and whatever they say will be open to a wide range of interpretations," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. McCarthy said Yellen may also sound somewhat upbeat on the economy, but she won't give a timeline on a rate hike.

There is little for markets to kick around Tuesday, with Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. EDT, new home sales at 10 a.m. and a few earnings from Best Buy, Toll Brothers, Intuit, J.M. Smucker and Bank of Montreal.

"When Dudley spoke last week, we got this little bounce [in the dollar]. It faded. Fischer spoke over the weekend. It bounced. Now it faded. The knee-jerk response is to buy the dollar. When all is said and done, we're talking about a December hike. That's not a sure thing. … It's hard to trade on these headlines," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Stocks drifted on Monday, closing mixed on light volume. The Dow was off 23 at 18,529 and the S&P was down 1 at 2,182, but the Nasdaq was lifted with biotech, rising 6 to 5,244. Treasury yields were near lows of the day in late trading. The two-year was yielding 0.74 percent in late trading, off from an earlier 0.78 percent, in response to Fischer's comments.

"We have been here before and they haven't hiked," said Putri Pascualy, senior credit strategist and portfolio manager at PAAMCO. "We have been here before and they haven't hiked. In the event that the Fed does hike, knowing what they've done in the past, they're going to do it when they feel the fundamentals are strong."

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Re: FED
« Reply #178 on: August 27, 2016, 02:02:18 PM »



全球金融又虛驚!
 1893点阅   2016年8月27日
美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾(互聯網)
美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾(互聯網)
(美國.懷俄明州26日訊)美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾全球央行年會上表示,美聯儲加息的可能性已經在最近數月增強,經濟形勢正接近美聯儲的就業和通脹目標。

耶侖也提到,美聯儲的貨幣政策沒有預先設定好的路徑,加息完全取決於數據表現。美國的經濟形勢正接近美聯儲的就業和通脹目標。



聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)預計,通脹率將在未來幾年內升向2%;財政政策可以加強經濟穩定性;美國經濟繼續在擴張,支出情況穩健;投資仍然疲軟,外需低迷;美聯儲預計美國GDP適度增長,勞動力市場會進一步增強;聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)預計就業市場將繼續走強。

市場對于耶侖還是那句老調“循序漸進地加息是適宜的”感到失望,因為耶侖並沒有”洩露天機“暗示加息的時間表。

耶侖發表講話后,美聯儲頓時成了“紙老虎”,黃金在急跌8美元(32令吉)后發威,反彈2%報刷新三日高點,至1342.31美元/盎司(5395令吉/盎司)。WTI紐約油價也不甘示弱,在急跌后升反彈至47.70美元/桶 (189令吉/桶)。

耶侖講話后,目前市場對美聯儲9月、11月、12月加息預期幾率,分別為32.0%、37.8%和59.9%。

耶倫今日講話表明,如果9月不加息,那麼美聯儲很可能會在11和12月兩次會議中的一次內,有所行動。

耶侖今晚的講話給全球金融市場帶來一場上竄又下跳,還好只是虛驚一場,接下來市場都把焦點放在8月份的非農就業數據,因為它是左右美聯儲加息的步伐的重要因素

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Re: FED
« Reply #179 on: September 03, 2016, 09:04:57 AM »



Dip in average work week may keep Janet Yellen from hiking, says Art Cashin
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
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 Art Cashin   Cashin: If I were on the Fed... 
9 Hours Ago | 02:28
Economists and market watchers are debating whether a disappointing August jobs report is enough to keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates this month, but Art Cashin said the decision might boil down to one figure.

Beyond the headline figure of 151,000 new positions in August, a number of details signal there is trouble brewing in labor markets, according to Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange. The one that troubles him the most is a drop in the average number of hours worked, he told CNBC's "Squawk Alley" on Friday.

The average work week for private sector employees fell by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in August, the Labor Department reported. The decline was slightly wider in the manufacturing sector, where the average hours worked was down 0.2 percent to 40.6.

The data point might not normally garner much attention, but Cashin said he believes Fed Chair Janet Yellen will look very strongly at last month's figure due to her background as an employment economist.

"While it was fractional given the number of people in the workforce, that wipes out far more than the [151,000] jobs that were added as far as productivity is concerned. That's equivalent to at least a drop of 200,000 jobs," he said.

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Re: FED
« Reply #180 on: September 06, 2016, 09:08:38 AM »



2016-09-06 08:27
高盛料9月加息机率55%
正当市场认为美国9月加息机会大减,高盛却发表报告,将美国9月加息机会由该行预期40%提升至55%,而且认为今年内最少加息1次机会率为80%。高盛表示,主要由于美国联储局主席叶伦在全球中行年会(Jackson Hole)的言论,显示联储局判断过去数月数据,已反映经济稳定向好。

(图:法新社)
(美国.纽约6日讯)正当市场认为美国9月加息机会大减,高盛却发表报告,将美国9月加息机会由该行预期40%提升至55%,而且认为今年内最少加息1次机会率为80%。高盛表示,主要由于美国联储局主席叶伦在全球中行年会(Jackson Hole)的言论,显示联储局判断过去数月数据,已反映经济稳定向好。

广告

 
高盛认为,叶伦当日言辞提到“加息条件已经增强”、相当肯定美国可以加息,未来经济数据只须“持续支持加息决定”即可,8月新增非农就业职位15.1万,仍然未脱离中期平均数之增长走势。高盛报告也提及,联储局副主席费希尔,早前被问到会否考虑9月加息时提到,费希尔的回答“主席(叶伦)的意思是会考虑”,显示考虑9月加息属于叶伦及费希尔二人共识。至于市场目前预测9月加息机会率仅得三成,高盛相信,距离9月议息会议前,联储局成员仍有很多公开发言机会,让市场做好加息准备。

至于有传联储局要待美国总统大选后才可加息,高盛表示此说法缺乏理据,过往经验显示,如联储局前主席格林斯潘于2004年大选年的7月加息;另一前主席伯南克,甚至于上届总统大选前夕、2012年9月宣布推出争议性极大的QE3。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.09.0

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Re: FED
« Reply #181 on: September 11, 2016, 06:32:17 PM »



彈盡援絕了?央行鴿派舉白旗 英、德、日債殖利率飆
回應(0) 人氣(1563) 收藏(0) 2016/09/10 11:41
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-09-10 11:41:02 記者 郭妍希 報導
歐洲央行(ECB)並未擴大量化寬鬆貨幣政策(QE),再加上聯準會(Fed)鴿派官員出面談升息,帶動德國10年期公債殖利率由負轉正、日本10年期公債殖利率也逐漸逼近零,英國公債更是激烈震盪,成為市場矚目焦點。這一切訊息都意味著,各國央行似乎已彈盡援絕,無法再如過去那般大舉實施寬鬆政策。(圖為歐洲央行總裁德拉吉)
華爾街日報9日報導,在過去兩天以來,英國10年期公債殖利率從原本的0.67%狂升0.2個百分點(相當於20個基點)至0.86%,而德國10年期公債殖利率漲幅雖較少,但也有0.14個百分點。
這顯然是因為,投資人認為各國央行維持低利率的時間,恐怕無法如之前市場預期那麼久,歐洲央行發布最新貨幣政策聲明後,升息預期反而蠢蠢欲動。為何會如此?業界人士認為,債市投資人其實對英國經濟感到樂觀,但都想等歐洲央行發布利率決策後再來動作,以免歐央總裁德拉吉決定加碼寬鬆、迫使英國央行(BOE)跟進。

隔夜利率互換(overnight interest-rate swaps)是一種衍生性商品,可讓投資人為利率變化進行避險。從隔夜利率互換就能看出人們對升息的期待:投資人9日預測,英國未來五年的指標利率將從目前的0.25%攀升至0.47%,比歐洲央行宣布貨幣聲明之前的0.36%還要高。
Fed官員最近的談話,也都偏向鷹派。對市場來說,這也暗示英國央行加碼寬鬆的意願不會太高,因為各國央行不再積極擴大貨幣刺激,英國央行也不需要過度放寬政策。
除了英國殖利率跳升外,日本央行(BOJ)的買債計畫恐達極限、或許會縮減長天期日本債的購買規模,也令日本10年期公債殖利率往上升、逐漸逼近零。Henderson Global Investors指出,全球央行普遍都變得較偏鷹派。
路透社報導,消息顯示,日本央行考慮讓日本公債的殖利率曲線變得更加陡峭,這帶動日本公債殖利率跳升。日本20年期公債殖利率9日攀升至0.435%、創5個月高,30年期公債殖利率也跳升7個基點至0.515%。
MarketWatch、路透社等多家外電9日報導,德意志銀行週五發布研究報告示警,宣稱全球經濟已接近「轉折點」,過去數十年來的全球化進程即將逆轉,貿易保護主義蠢蠢欲動,而債市長達35年的多頭行情也即將告終,接下來35年,通膨、債券殖利率恐將翻轉往上走。
報告稱,央行的寬鬆貨幣政策在實施數年後,如今幾已彈盡援絕,但財政撙節、薪資停滯引發的政治風暴才正要展開,貿易保護主義也將順勢崛起。
德銀認為,在較好的情境下,債市投資人恐面臨長達數年、甚至好幾十年的「打折」(haircut)行情,類似二次大戰(WWII)結束後的情況。德銀提出的另一個較為嚴峻的假設,則是有某個大國不幸違約、把國內債券全部拖下水,影響甚至蔓延到國際市場。在這樣的情況下,非核心的公債市場將面臨嚴重損失,因為屆時央行的安全網早已移除。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Re: FED
« Reply #182 on: September 13, 2016, 04:52:39 PM »



2016-09-13 15:25
联储局意见分化.9月会议倾向按兵不动
美国联邦储备局官员在距离下次政策会议还有一周之际,仍然缺乏统一意见,目前倾向于继续等待,到今年晚些时候再考虑上调短期利率。
(美国.纽约13日讯)美国联邦储备局官员在距离下次政策会议还有一周之际,仍然缺乏统一意见,目前倾向于继续等待,到今年晚些时候再考虑上调短期利率。

广告
 

 
或暂缓升息

官员们仍各执己见。但根据公开评论和近期访问的内容判断,鉴于通货膨胀仍然低于联储局2%的目标,再加上近几个月失业率数据几乎没有改变,美联储的高级官员们几乎感受不到采取行动的迫切性,而是倾向于推迟行动。

联储局虽然犹豫不决,却面临催促其行动的外部压力。摩根大通(J.P.Morgan Chase & Co.,JPM)董事会主席及首席首席执行员戴蒙(James Dimon)周一在华盛顿经济俱乐部(Economic Club of Washington, D.C.)称,联储局无需在这件事上进退两难,现在正是加息的时机。他还表示,加息25个基点也只会产生很小的影响。

联储局主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)在9月20-21日政策会议召开前一周将与16名官员进行幕后商议,以听取他们的意见并制定会议计划。她所面对的是一群意见分化的决策者,出现更多内部份歧的可能性要比2014年她上任以来的正常水平更高。

考虑到4.9%的失业率,一些地区联邦储备银行行长认为,劳动力市场已经在很大程度上自2007-2009年的金融危机中复苏,不再需要让短期利率位于仅略高于零的水平。这些人士指出,最近数周美国经济面临的海外风险已经消散,这增强了目前采取行动的理由。

广告

对于其他人来说,当前的口号是耐心。这些人士大多预计今年将加息,但认为没必要立即采取行动。这些官员指出,今年失业率并没有太大变化。因此,就业市场的过剩劳力正在以比此前更慢的速度减少。这降低了通过提高信贷成本以防经济过热的紧迫性。

此外,由于经济增长如此缓慢,这组人士认为利率在未来几个月乃至几年无需升至很高的水平,因此联储局可以慢慢来。

亚特兰大联储银行行长洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)在周一发表讲话后告诉记者,他认为他们不会为耐心付出代价。

联储局理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)在希望等待的阵营中一直敢于直言,她在周一于芝加哥发表的一次讲话中呼吁对加息保持审慎态度。

这番言论受到金融市场的密切关注,因为一些交易员推测布雷纳德或许会改变立场,转而支持加息。但与此相反,布雷纳德列出五点理由,说明美联储为何应坚持执行谨慎而缓慢加息的策略。

推迟加息给叶伦带来风

推迟加息的决定将给叶伦带来风险。联储局可能将受到传达含混信息使市场参与者无所适从的批评。叶伦本人在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球中行年会上表示,加息的理由已经增强。这被部份市场参与者解读为叶伦准备行动的信号。

自去年12月以来,联储局基准利率(名为联邦基金利率的银行间隔夜拆款利率)一直维持在0.25%至0.5%区间。

联邦基金利率期货市场交易员预计联储局9月加息和12月13日至14日会议加息的概率分别为15%和57%。联储局官员通常不愿出乎投资者意料,这是他们倾向推迟加息的又一因素。

美联储官员还将在11月1日至2日举行会议,但那时加息似乎不太可能,因为一周后就是美国总统选举日。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.09.13

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Re: FED
« Reply #183 on: September 14, 2016, 10:23:06 AM »



美联储内部分裂
叶伦很头大
181点看 2016年9月14日
美联储主席叶伦。
美联储主席叶伦。

(纽约14日综合电)距离美联储开会仅剩一周,但决策官员们对本月利率动向看来还没有共识,鹰、鸽两派壁垒分明,可能会是叶伦接掌主席以来内部意见最对立的一次会议。


国际能源署(IEA)表示油价供过于求会持续到明年上半年,油价应声跌3%。美联储短期升息几率降也重创金融股。

联邦公开市场操作委员会两派阵营壁垒分明,势均力敌,一方面多数成员基于通膨蓄势待涨,劳动市场松弛减低,主张逐步升息,另一派美联储在会议纪录里的“其他与会者”,则认为并未证据显示通膨对劳动市场紧俏已有反应。

因此,这一派代表人物美联储理事布兰纳德日前在芝加哥演讲说,目前似乎没有必要向通膨或就业过热靠拢,也就是说,没有急于升息的理由。这个论点可能在9月20日和21日的公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上很有说服力。布兰纳德是美联储开会前最后一位公开发言的美联储官员,美联储接下来会静默一周。

接掌以来内部最对立一次

美联储主席叶伦可趁此时间私下与16位官员讨论,多方听取意见,替会议定调。这将是叶伦面对2014年接掌美联储以来,内部意见最对立的一次会议。

不少美联储分区总裁主张,失业率已降至4.9%,劳动市场大致从金融危机复原,让短期利率仍接近于零渐失正当性。

这一派也认为,美国经济来自海外的风险已去除,此时不动、更待何时。

另一派则主张耐心以对,他们大致认为今年是该升息,但不是现在。这一派官员指出,失业率今年并无太大变动,劳动市场疲态消逝的速度较缓,也因此降低升息以防经济过热的急迫性。

亚特兰大联邦准备银行总裁洛克哈德便说:“我觉得我们不会因为耐心付出代价。”

布兰纳德也说,通膨对失业率降低的反应不大,通膨不动如山于低档,排除Fed为避免物价急速上涨而得防患于未然的压力。

新闻来源:经济日报


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Re: FED
« Reply #184 on: September 14, 2016, 04:28:22 PM »



华尔街之狼:麻烦了!
加息与否 市场仍非常危险
205点看 2016年9月14日

卡尔伊坎

(纽约14日综合电)外媒报道,对冲基金大鳄、绰号“华尔街之狼”的卡尔伊坎(Carl Icahn)表示,无论美联储加息与否,市场仍然非常危险且充满问题。


他续称:“如果美联储不加息,相信我们会处于极大的泡沫之中。”

他坦言,目前环境看来,市场非常危险,你好像“走在窗台,以为即将走到尽头的时候,却从窗台掉下来,而你知道这次有麻烦了。”

新闻来源:东网


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Re: FED
« Reply #185 on: September 18, 2016, 07:36:54 PM »



2016-09-18 14:20
陈定远‧美联储升息是个两难问题吗?
美国利率水平这么低,已经跌入了所谓的流动性陷阱,利率变动如果不大,例如仅仅提高利率0.25%,是不会对经济活动产生影响的。
每一个月的第三个星期三,是美国联邦储备局议论利率的日子,利率或升或降,或维持不变,都在这一两天的会议决定,除非有特大事件突然发生。例如8年前9月16日雷曼兄弟宣布倒闭,打乱了美联储的议事日程,非马上召开会议商议经济对策不可。

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而在议论利率之前的一个星期五,又是美国每月公布就业统计数字的日子。就业数字,尤其是非农就业数字,比较能够反映经济的走势,是决定利率水平的重要依据之一。笔者写这篇文章时,美国9月2日周五已经公布8月份新增的非农就业人数,因低于市场预期,于是市场一般认为美联储9月加息的可能性不高。不过这不是笔者的重点,笔者要强调的是,在这个时期,决定利率升降是个两难问题吗?是否升息真的那么难吗?

现代美国联邦基金利率,曾在牛仔总统里根执政的1980年代达到最高峰,当时利率为17.61%,过后利率便一直下滑,到2008年发生全球金融危机后,因为采取了扩张性的货币政策,除了推出大型量化宽松措施之外,还把利率降至近乎零的水平,是为0%-0.25%。量化宽松措施结束后,美联储还保证低利率水平会一直延续到2015年中,企图加强投资者在长期投资上的信心,保证资金成本在几年内不会上升。

2014年,美国经济已经摆脱衰退,从有史以来经济最大衰退中复苏过来,但美国经济好转并不强劲,通货膨胀率依旧很低。在美元外汇市场上,开始有大户押注美元,开始兴风作浪,并推波助澜,声称美国利率即将上升,以便达到寻租的目的。于是大量的资金从新兴市场流出,涌向美元,美元汇率猛涨,新兴国家的货币大贬,押注美元的投机者寻租成功,大有斩获。美联储保证利率在2015年中不会上升,但外汇市场里的投机者并不理会,制造利率即将上升的舆论,它们的阴谋果然得逞。

美联储在2015年12月中虚晃一招,将利率提高0.25%,即提升到0.25%-0.5%,并宣布往后的利率会按部就班分阶段有序提高。美联储也许后来发觉,那一次提高利率的决定是错误的,因为就业人数并没有显著的增加,经济没有显著的好转,通货膨胀也没有发生,所以一直到今天的9个月后,仍旧没有宣布提高利率。 9月20-21日即将召开的美联储议息会议会不会宣布加息?有84%的市场人士预测说不会。不过,这一次倒是没有投机者在兴风作浪,推波助澜,积极寻租。

从最近美联储内部鹰鸽两派的言论来看,他们泾渭分明,鹰派认为应该加息,而鸽派则不以为然,没有一致的共识。美联储主席耶伦对9月是否加息的发言含糊不清,用词晦涩难懂,以致有人认为,耶伦的立场不如美联储前任主席伯南克的立场那么清楚果断,倒像是另一前任格林斯潘一样的含糊不清,不过,我们不要忘记,是格林斯潘这个主席把美国利率降到了零的水平。

广告

市场普遍认为美联储本月不会有加息行动,不过,在年底之前,美联储必会有一次加息行动。笔者认为,到时如果加息也是虚晃一招,除非经济活动有非常强劲的表现,通货膨胀出现苗头,显示经济活动有过热的迹象,才需要以提高利率的货币政策降低总需求,避免发生严重的通货膨胀。

美国利率水平这么低,已经跌入了所谓的流动性陷阱,利率变动如果不大,例如仅仅提高利率0.25%,是不会对经济活动产生影响的。既然这样,提高与不提高利率是没有区别的,换句话说,加息这个决定并不是一个两难的问题。但由于美联储在去年12月错误地提高利率,让人诟病,于是对加息这个问题便从此小心谨慎,不明确表态。

平心而论,这是不必要的,因为加不加息,在这个时期并不重要,重要的是,美联储应该明确表态,让人对利率的走势有所依从,就如伯南克保证利率在2015年中仍会保持在低水平一样。但是耶伦接手担任美国第二号人物之后,对利率的走势一直含糊其辞,让人无所依从,甚至被人牵着鼻子走。

就如2014年下半年开始,各路金融大鳄鼓吹升息论,说什么美国利率随时会被提升,美联储主席耶伦也不出来辟谣,也不出来表示美国低利率至少会一直维持到2015年中,以便安抚人心,然而这种暧昧的态度,害得大家竞相追逐美元,以致美元汇率大涨,让有心人士寻租成功。

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·南方大学学院企业与管理学院教授·2016.09.18

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Re: FED
« Reply #186 on: September 22, 2016, 07:17:02 AM »



Janet Yellen: I would expect to see a rate hike this year
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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 Yellen: Less disagreement in FOMC than you might think   Yellen: More agreement in FOMC than you might think 
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The Fed's decision not to hike rates this month shouldn't be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the economy, Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday.

After the latest move by the central bank to pass on a hike, Yellen was left to defend the Fed's decision to maintain a crisis-era rate policy despite the last recession ending more than seven years ago.

"Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy," she said during her quarterly news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "Conditions in the labor market have strengthened and we expect that to continue, and while inflation remains low we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time."

FOMC officials dissented over whether to raise rates this month, with three members voting against the final committee statement to keep the funds rate between 0.25 and 0.50 percent.

Yellen said the majority's thinking was that economic progress is continuing but there was not a strong enough case to hike.

"We are generally agreed that gradual increases in the federal funds rate to remove what is a modest degree of accommodation will be appropriate, but we don't see the economy as overheating now," she said.

However, Yellen gave a fairly strong indication that a hike will happen before 2016 is over. She said the labor market is strengthening and "risks to the outlook have become roughly balanced."

The FOMC has two more meetings — in November, shortly before the presidential election, and December, where Yellen gives her final post-meeting news conference of the year.

"I would expect to see (a rate increase this year) if we continue on the current course of labor market improvement, and there are no major risks that develop and we stay on the current course," she said

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Re: FED
« Reply #187 on: October 09, 2016, 07:40:08 AM »



贝莱德:美国12月加息已几成定局
764点看 2016年10月8日
(纽约8日讯)全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益业务首席投资主管瑞克莱德(Rick Rieder)表示,除非美国经济或市场遭受意外冲击,否则美联储今年12月加息似乎已几成定局。

据外媒报道,莱德认为,上个月美国非农就业数据已为11月加息打开大门,但相信总统大选期间,美联储不倾向加息。


他预期劳动市场继续改善,而明年通胀率料将上升。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: FED
« Reply #188 on: October 18, 2016, 02:34:59 PM »



2016-10-16 19:51
李文龙.再谈美国升息
国行是否调整利息应对备受关注。理论上而言,升息有助巩固马币汇率、对依赖利息收入的退休人士有利,加强马币的购买力等。惟它必须也要顾及其他的负面冲击取得平衡,特别是将会加重经济成长的成本,从而拉低经济成长与活动。
美国很有可能在今年12月再升息,这将对大马带来什么样的影响,值得加以关注与做好应对准备。

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美国经济好转持续升息,首要关注的是美国为首的先进国,之前展开量化宽松货币政策时,所注入数以兆美元计的资金动向。

这些流动资金,目前遍布全球市场,若是总体回酬率、经济基本层面及安全性欠佳,这些游资将撤离四处流动寻求更好的投资标,誓必造成全球资金市场包括大马市场波动不靖。

国行是否调整利息应对备受关注。理论上而言,升息有助巩固马币汇率、对依赖利息收入的退休人士有利,加强马币的购买力等。惟它必须也要顾及其他的负面冲击取得平衡,特别是将会加重经济成长的成本,从而拉低经济成长与活动。

若是大马也跟着升息,这将对各行各业产生影响,高负债的企业及个人将首当其冲,加重它们的偿还债务成本,产业贷款受到影响,打击市场消费情绪(消费者存钱兴致高于消费)。

惟在做出是否调整利息时,相信国行肯定会深重考量大马偏高的家庭债及政府债、仍然偏低的官方通膨率,后者某程度上显示消费及经济情况低迷的重要衡量因素。

大马政府6560亿令吉的债务,绝大部份为国内的令吉债务,并仍落在国内生产总值的55%以下水平。所以,除了短期外资引起的短暂的波动,整体而言,相信它不会对大马经济的基本面造成太大的冲击。

广告

预期2016年的大马经济成长可达4至4.5%之间水平,以目前全球及区域经济参差不齐的情况而言,大马经济成长水平仍可说是可圈可点,拥有一定的吸引力,惟若是持续下滑或较显著降低,则是另当别论及胥视当局将采取什么措施应对以改善情况。

大马也需要胥视商品价格的起落,特别是双油——即原油与原棕油的支撑,国内需求与消费,以及无可加以量化惟却是最重要考量的政治因素,国内任何重大政治活动,都可以触动整体经济活动或国内外投资者的神经。

美国是否开如进一步升息,固然对大马经济及资金市场产生影响,惟最为重要焦点,还是落在大马本身的经济基本层面及政治因素而定。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧投资茶室‧文:李文龙‧2016.10.16

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Re: FED
« Reply #189 on: October 19, 2016, 08:02:10 PM »



财经  2016年10月19日
美通胀急涨 升息更近了

(华盛顿19日讯)继欧元区9月消费者物价激增一倍后,美国与英国18日公布的通胀率涨幅同创近两年来最大,通胀在全球各地有捲土重来之势。美国劳工部18日指出,美国9月的消费者物价指数(CPI)较去年同期成长1.5%,创下2014年10月来最大涨幅,9月扣除食品和能源的核心通胀则较去年上涨2.2%。

美国9月的CPI较上个月增长0.3%,也是近5个月最大增幅。英国国家统计局同日公布,9月CPI较一年前上涨1%,高于8月的0.6%,也优于经济学家预测的0.9%,涨幅更是自2014年11月来最高。9月的CPI较上个月增加0.2%。

经济学家说,若美国的通胀持续出现稳定增长,联储局(Fed)就可能会在12月升息。

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Re: FED
« Reply #190 on: October 21, 2016, 08:50:36 AM »



惊世一枪,加息的信号终于来了
2016-10-20
  作者黄生,喜投网董事长,中国知名投资人,货币专家,《钓鱼岛背后的货币战争》作者。不关注金融,你将会被这个世界抛弃,因为你赚钱的速度很难赶上印钞的速度,黄生微信订阅号:hsshuoxt ,黄生个人微信号:huangshengxt,喜投网微信订阅号:xitouwang,敬请关注!

  刚刚美联储公布的数据,美国申请上调贴现利率的地方联储已经高达9家,也就是三分之二的地方联储支持提高贴现利率,美国2015年12月加息的时候,也是9家地方联储申请提高贴现利率,11月提高,12月加息。

  美联储贴现利率的提高,是加息的前奏,一般贴现利率提高后,随之加息就到来,这次如此之多的地方联储申请提高贴现利率,说明加息的时机已经到来。

  现在就等美联储同意提高贴现利率了,一旦美联储提高贴现利率,那么紧接着就是美联储加息了。

  为什么要先提高贴现利率,然后再加息呢?

  1、因为提高贴现利率,使得商业银行向美联储再贷款的成本提高,为了降低成本,商业银行会转而向联邦储备基金进行拆借,这样一来会导致联邦储备基金拆借利率上升。

  2、联邦储备基金拆借需求旺盛,美联储就可以顺应市场需求,提高联邦储备基金利率,也就是加息。

  3、提高贴现利率,实际上就是减少基础货币的投放,控制央行的资产负债表膨胀,使得市场更多的使用已经通过经济活动流通过的货币,而非直接印钞。

  4、因为基础货币相当于直接印钞,是没有直接的财富对应的,如果总是这样,会导致印钞规模无法控制,也会导致通胀的发生。

  让我们耐心等待吧,美联储随时可能会提高贴现利率,那么紧接着就是加息了,到时,全球金融市场将接受一场狂风暴雨的洗礼

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Re: FED
« Reply #191 on: October 23, 2016, 03:19:27 PM »



太晚或致通胀失控
美国应渐进升息
80点看 2016年10月23日

威廉斯

(华盛顿22日讯)旧金山联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)重申美联储应渐进升息,太晚升息或致通胀失控,届时不得不迅速升息,从而危害经济。


他认为,美国经济基本上处于充分就业状态,通胀在接近于美联储设定的2%目标。

美国经济对美联储升息准备充分。

因此,渐进升息是合理的,升息宜早不宜迟。缓慢升息,并不是要试图阻碍经济扩张,恰恰相反,支持缓慢升息是为了让经济维持在良好的基础之上。

美联储内部也有数名支持加息的官员,给出了与威廉斯类似的立场,称早升息的话,能够对经济有更好的把控,不会使得通胀失调。

当通胀不受控制时,美联储可能不得不激进地升息,从而导致经济陷入衰退。

威廉斯认为,美联储今年升息一次、明年升息数次是合理的。

长期来看,美国利率可能只会升到3%至3.5%的水平,甚至有可能还要低。

他还谈到了美联储资产负债表规模,称美联储已经多次讨论关于资产负债表规模的“合理计划”。

美联储计划在利率明显脱离零之前,维持资产负债表规模不变。未来,资产负债表规模会低于当前。


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Re: FED
« Reply #192 on: October 25, 2016, 08:12:02 PM »



财经  2016年10月25日
美12月升息机率突破70%

(纽约25日讯)《彭博》资讯报导,追踪联邦基金利率的数据显示,美国联储局(Fed)12月升息的机率,已经从上周五的68%,上升到71%。

美元兑一篮子主要货幣周一徘徊在9个月高点附近,美元兑日圆匯价也触及一周高点,主要是投资人对Fed12月升息的预期心理增强。

美元指数周一小涨,报98.775,略低于盘中触及的近9个月高点,美元兑日圆匯价也升至一周高点。欧元兑美元匯价跌0.08%,报1.0873美元,接近上周五触及的逾7个月低点。

明年底或升息3次


近期美国经济数据良好和Fed官员的言论,使得美国在12月升息预期心理升高,周一交易商预期,美国12月升息的机率约74%。

芝加哥联邦准备银行总裁伊凡斯(Charles Evans)周一表示,若通胀预期和就业市场持续好转,到明年底美国可升息3次。

上周五旧金山联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)的讲话,和纽约联邦银行总裁杜雷(William Dudley)10月19日的言论也暗示,美国离升息的日子不远了。

美元兑新兴市场货幣下跌,分析师將此归因于投资者愿意承担更多风险,以及近日民调显示,民主党总统选人希拉里的支持率领先川普,目前离11月8日美国总统大选还剩2周的时间

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Re: FED
« Reply #193 on: October 26, 2016, 08:25:48 PM »



CURRENCY
Why This Dollar Surge Is Different for the Fed

OCT 26, 2016 1:00 AM EST
a | A
By
Mohamed A. El-Erian
The dollar has returned to highs it last reached nine months ago. The drivers of this increase are similar to those that caused the currency to surge earlier this year. Yet, this time, the impact on financial markets has been quite different. And if this persists, the implications for Federal Reserve policy will also be different.

Traders have pushed the dollar higher based on their confidence of an approaching divergence in central bank policies – that is, a tightening by the Fed even as other systemically important institutions such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China maintain or intensify their loose stance. But in contrast to the earlier period, the impact on U.S. stocks has been very muted.

The Fed Lifts Off, Barely

Instead of enduring a selloff in response to currency-induced competitive pressures -- which is what happened in the first quarter -- U.S. stocks have been well-behaved. A heavy deal calendar has helped as investors cheered the influx of merger-and-acquisition funding into the marketplace, whether from corporate cash held on balance sheets or new debt financing. As a result, financial conditions have remained highly accommodative, despite the appreciation of the dollar.

Equity investors have also been reassured by the growing -- and correct -- recognition that this Fed hiking cycle will depart drastically from historical norms. Instead of following a relatively linear path of increases at regular intervals, it will have pronounced “stop-go” characteristics. Also, and perhaps more importantly, the endpoint -- or what economists call the “neutral rate” -- will be considerably lower than recent historical averages.

An open question is whether the Fed will be able to pull off this gradual and measured tightening of financial conditions without upsetting markets that have become used to exceptional support from central banks. What is clear, however, is that the recent strengthening of the dollar, of itself, is unlikely to be a deterrent to a rate hike for the rest of this year. That is most likely in December rather than at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.

Sensing this, markets have already raised the implied probability of Fed action in December to almost 75 percent. Together with relative short-term economic and financial calm abroad, including a lot less worry about a hard landing in China, this will comfort the Fed, which is already inclined to take a further step, albeit a small one, to normalize monetary policy. Moreover, when viewed in relative terms, this normalization of monetary policy in the context of a stronger dollar contributes to the “global rebalancing” needed to put the world economy on a firmer footing.

But ultimately it will be absolute fundamentals, rather than relative trends, that secure a prosperous global economy and genuine financial stability. And a sufficiently robust foundation still eludes us.

The upcoming rebalancing will be attempted in the context of growth rates that remain too low and are insufficiently inclusive, which increases the risk of further political polarization, dysfunction and an economic derailment. Until the basic challenge of generating high and inclusive growth is overcome, the Fed’s normalization process will be far from automatic and the risk of market instability will remain too high to ignore.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners

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Re: FED
« Reply #194 on: October 31, 2016, 06:59:23 AM »



Will the Fed surprise complacent investors?
Paul Davidson , USA TODAY 6:21 p.m. EDT October 30, 2016
AFP AFP_HG19I A ELE ELE USA ST
(Photo: PAUL J. RICHARDS, AFP/Getty Images)
Could the Federal Reserve shock markets and raise interest rates Wednesday, less than a week before a historic presidential election?

Put it this way: The odds are of  Los Angeles Dodgers victory in the World Series are just slightly lower. (Hint: the Dodgers aren’t in the series). Yet at least one economist doesn’t rule out the possibility.

While fears of roiling markets and thus possibly swaying the election are playing some role, the Fed has other reasons to stand pat, including mixed economic data. Employers added a tepid 156,000 jobs in September.And although the government reported Friday that economic growth accelerated to a 2.9% annual pace in the third quarter, gains in consumer spending and business investment were modest.


USA TODAY
Economy grows at fastest pace in 2 years as GDP rises 2.9% in Q3

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What’s more, the Fed is seen as unlikely to bump up rates at a meeting that’s not followed by a scheduled press conference in which Chair Janet Yellen can explain the move. Goldman Sachs also notes the Fed has been loath to make a move markets aren’t expecting on fears it could spark a selloff. Fed fund futures reckon there’s just a 9.3% chance the Fed will act this week.

More likely, Goldman says, is Fed officials will strongly signal a December hike.

Fueling some speculation that the Fed could hike at a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday was the split decision at its September gathering to leave rates unchanged. Three policymakers dissented and 10 forecast at least one rate increase by year-end.

The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at a historically low 0.4% since lifting it in December for the first time in nine years.

“Should a rate hike lead to market volatility, there is the possibility it could have some marginal impact on the election outcome,” says Barclays economist Rob Martin. He adds that with Americans voting just six days after the Fed meeting, there would be little time for stocks to settle.

And, he says, since there’s no difference to the economy if the Fed acts in November or December, why not wait a bit? The Fed boosts rates to temper inflation, but price increases have been meager.

Fed officials likely would prefer not to swing the election either way. But practically, a market sell-off could dim perceptions of the economy and President Obama, and by extension, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Also, with some businesses saying election-related uncertainty is damping their confidence and investments, economists have suggested it would be prudent for the Fed to hold off and assess the vote's impact on markets.


USA TODAY
Fed holds rates steady in close call; strongly signals Dec. hike

Yet even doing nothing can draw fire. In September, Republican nominee Donald Trump accused Fed Chair Janet Yellen of keeping rates low to help Obama. Yellen told reporters that “partisan politics plays no role in our decisions.”

In recent weeks, though, some Fed officials have grudgingly acknowledged the face-off is part of the picture. “What I’m worried about is depending on the outcome of the election and what happens after that, if there are policies that would have distortive effects that we would have to respond to,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told reporters this month, according to Bloomberg News.

Asked about the election's impact, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who wanted to lift rates last month, told the Wall Street Journal the market’s view that December is far more likely “is a reasonable bet.”

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics doesn’t think the Fed will pull the trigger this week but says investors are too complacent. Noting most polls show Clinton with a big lead, he contends little uncertainty remains about the vote and a rate hike would underscore the Fed’s remove from politics.

Still, this contest has been unusually vitriolic. And politics often lurks in the background. In 1998, former President George H.W. Bush told David Frost he believes he would have been reelected in 1992 if then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had cut rates more dramatically to juice the recovery.

"I reappointed him, and he disappointed me," Bush said.

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Re: FED
« Reply #195 on: November 03, 2016, 08:12:42 AM »



Fed Sets Up Move in December While Leaving Rates on Hold
 Christopher Condon
 chrisjcondon
November 3, 2016 — 2:00 AM MYT Updated on November 3, 2016 — 2:34 AM MYT
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Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged While Setting Up Possible Move
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Federal Reserve policy makers left interest rates unchanged while saying the argument for higher borrowing costs strengthened further amid accelerating inflation, reinforcing expectations for a hike next month.
“The committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. The decision was 8-2.
Fed officials revealed growing confidence that inflation is on track to reach their 2 percent target. The central bank said Wednesday that the pace of price gains “has increased somewhat since earlier this year” and that market-based measures of inflation compensation “have moved up.” The committee also omitted previous language saying inflation would probably “remain low in the near term.”
“Given the asymmetry of risks, there was little chance they would hike in November, their earliest opportunity and a meeting without a press conference” by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. The presidential “election is a secondary consideration, in my view.”
The decision to forgo a rate increase had been widely expected owing to the proximity of next week’s U.S. presidential election and the lack of a scheduled press briefing after this meeting. Now the focus will shift to the FOMC’s gathering in December, provided the outlook for the economy and inflation isn’t thrown into doubt over the next six weeks.
This month’s statement said the Fed would wait for “some further evidence” of progress in the economy before raising rates, adding the qualifier “some” to language from September, a sign that officials moved incrementally closer to a hike.
Two Dissenters
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Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, two of the three officials who dissented at the committee’s September session, repeated their objection, calling for raising the federal funds target by a quarter percentage point from its current range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The third, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, opted to support Wednesday’s decision to hold rates steady.

When leaving rates unchanged in September, the FOMC acknowledged the case for tightening policy had “strengthened.” Minutes of the session later showed that was a “close call” for several officials who supported the decision to stand pat and wait for the economy make more progress.
Investors weren’t convinced, however, that officials would pull the trigger this week. Pricing in federal funds futures contracts earlier Wednesday implied a roughly 15 percent probability of an increase at this meeting. Traders and economists instead had their eyes on the Dec. 13-14 meeting, when futures indicated a roughly two-in-three chance of a quarter-point move.
None of the 90 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a hike this week.
In addition to the uncertainties for financial markets posed by the election, many Fed watchers have said the central bank is less inclined to alter policy at a meeting, such as this week’s, that doesn’t feature a scheduled press conference from Yellen. The briefings follow alternating meetings.
Inflation Pickup
The Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures has moved closer to the bank’s 2 percent target this year, reaching 1.7 percent in the 12 months through September after stripping out volatile food and energy components. Unemployment was 5 percent in September, at or close to what many economists estimate is its lowest sustainable level.
“There does appear to have been a more explicit reference to the possibility that inflation may be getting a little bit of steam now, so that might tend to reinforce the view that we are going to have a rate increase in December,” former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Job Market
The central bank on Wednesday offered an assessment of the economy that was broadly similar to its September statement, reiterating that the “labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up” since the first half.
“The thing that jumps out is how little was changed,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York, explaining that officials probably feel that markets have sufficiently priced-in a possible December rate increase, allowing them to avoid the sort of explicit signal that they gave in the statement immediately before their hike last year.
Officials acknowledged a cooling of consumer spending, saying it “has been rising moderately,” compared with September, when it had been “growing strongly.”
The economy expanded at a 2.9 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, according to a government report last week. While that was more than double the rate in the previous period, household spending actually slowed more than expected, while inventory rebuilding and a soybean-related jump in exports powered the rebound.
The Fed’s only rate increase since the financial crisis of 2008-09 came last December when officials lifted the target range by 0.25 percentage point. They have regularly signaled their expectation for additional, gradual increases, but were put off by a range of worries.
Concerns about slowing global growth early in 2016, a dismal U.S. employment report in May and the U.K.’s June vote to exit the European Union all helped delay potential rate hikes even as the U.S. economy continued on a broad trend of adding jobs and slightly higher inflation

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Re: FED
« Reply #196 on: November 03, 2016, 10:15:00 AM »



2016-11-03 09:26
美联储再次维持利率不变
美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%至0.5%不变,同时表示再次启动加息的条件继续加强。

(图:法新社)
(美国.华盛顿3日讯)美国联邦储备委员会2日宣布将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%至0.5%不变,同时表示再次启动加息的条件继续加强。

广告

 
美联储当天在结束为期两天的货币政策例会后发表声明说,9月以来的信息显示美国就业市场继续改善,经济增长较上半年有所回升,家庭消费继续温和增长,但企业固定投资仍然疲软。

声明说,今年以来美国通膨率有所回升,但仍低于美联储2%的目标。

与上一次声明相比,美联储在这次声明中去掉了“通膨水准将在短期内维持低位”的表述,暗示美联储对通胀继续回升的信心有所增强。

声明说,美国经济面临的短期风险大致平衡。美联储认为再次启动加息的条件继续加强,但决定等待一些证据表明通膨和就业继续朝着美联储的目标进一步改进后再启动加息。

这是今年以来美联储连续第七次维持联邦基金利率不变,与市场预期相符。在本次会议上,有两位美联储官员对政策声明投了反对票,他们认为应该在本次会议上决定加息。

分析人士指出,声明中的美国通膨率回升的表述,意味着美联储在12月货币政策例会上决定加息的可能性有所加大。

广告

 
美联储于去年12月启动近十年来首次加息,开始缓慢的货币政策正常化进程。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.11.03

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Re: FED
« Reply #197 on: November 05, 2016, 08:37:55 AM »



Fed's Fischer says labor market strong, Fed could overshoot goals
4 Hours Ago
Reuters
3
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
The U.S. labor market is close to full strength and the economy could at some point overshoot the Federal Reserve's goals for employment and inflation, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Friday.

Fischer did not say whether the Fed was likely to raise interest rates in December but he noted that investors in financial markets were betting on a hike that month.

"The labor market has, by and large, had a pretty good year," Fischer said in prepared remarks for a conference at the International Monetary Fund, describing the jobs situation in America as "close to full employment."

U.S. employers added 161,000 jobs in October, data showed earlier on Friday, and Fischer said the economy probably only needs to create between 65,000 and 115,000 per month to maintain full employment.

Fischer has warned several times this year that higher inflation was bound to stir before long and on Friday he reiterated that he expected prices to rise more quickly.

More strikingly, he appeared to acknowledge the U.S. labor market could overheat and that inflation could exceed the Fed's 2 percent target although he did not say when the U.S. economy might exceed the Fed's objectives.

He said the long-run growth outlook was rather uncertain in part because economists do not understand why growth in average output per hour worked has stagnated.

A better understanding might develop if the labor market becomes tighter and inflation rises, he said, referring to a hypothesis that faster growth in demand might lead to an acceleration in productivity growth.

"It will be answered by the behavior of output and inflation as we approach and perhaps to some extent exceed our employment and inflation targets," Fischer said

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Re: FED
« Reply #198 on: November 11, 2016, 06:30:32 AM »



财经  2016年11月10日
市场预料Fed加速升息

(纽约10日讯)川普当选美国总统后,债市交易员对联储局(Fed)升息的看法也跟著市场转向,原本认为Fed会延后升息,如今不仅认为下个月会升息,明年还会加速升息。

彭博报导,太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)乃至於TIAA全球资產管理公司认为,美国长债殖利率劲扬,反映市场视川普胜选为通胀上扬的徵兆。也就是说,Fed依照职责,必须迅速因应。

Pimco的史格马岱(Scott Mather)认为,Fed明年底可能升息3次。

交换契约交易所显示的升息周期更快,隔夜指数交换契约暗示两年內基准利率会升到1.01%,高于上周末的0.82%。


这数字反映川普上台后,市场预测这段期间升息又增加一次。

市场所反映Fed下个月升息的机率达到82%,高于上周末的76%,昨天此机率一度跌到50%以下。川普上台,Fed未来人事和决策也可能出现极大变化。Fed主席耶伦的任期要等到2018年中才届满,但未来如何很难讲。

布鲁金斯研究所研究员亚伦利因(Aaron Klein)说:「川普有权力根本转变央行。」

RBC经济专家发布报告认为,耶伦不会因川普上台而辞职,「我们认为耶伦会视在压力下辞职是直接对Fed独立性的攻击,这是她向来介意的。

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Re: FED
« Reply #199 on: November 17, 2016, 06:45:41 AM »



财经  2016年11月16日
川普经济学发威 美升息机率近100%

(纽约16日讯)美国总统大选前,不少分析师警告,一旦川普入主白宫,联储局(Fed)升息的机率可能隨之降低,但在川普意外出线后,「川普经济学」(Trumpenomics)发威,利率期货显示,美国12月升息几乎是板上定钉,升息机率逼近100%。

《彭博资讯》报导,期货市场行情表明,联储局在12月13日-14日举行的今年最后一次政策会议上採取行动的机率现已达到大约94%,创出了今年以来的最高水平。

川普的財政开支计划致使市场认定,隨著通胀预期的上升,联储局可能会加快加息脚步。

加拿大皇家银行驻悉尼经济及固定收益策略师王素琳(译音)说,「2017年以及之后的美国经济成长前景,可能已多了几分光明。于是市场將12月行动,预期推高到了差不多板上钉钉的地步,儘管我们的確有必要先对川普及其新政府有一个更加清晰的认识。」


美债殖利率升高

《彭博》债券交易数据显示,东京时间周三上午10时,基准10年期美国国债殖利率基本持平,报2.22%。这一2026年11月到期、票面利率为2%的债券价格报982/32。

联储局12月加息的可能性,已较本月初时的68%显著增加。用以衡量债券存续期內消费者价格预期的10年期美国国债,与相同期限通胀掛鉤国债之间的殖利率差,周一升到了1.97%的高点。

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Re: FED
« Reply #199 on: November 17, 2016, 06:45:41 AM »