Author Topic: FED  (Read 25208 times)

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Re: FED
« Reply #200 on: November 17, 2016, 06:46:31 AM »



进特朗普时代 通胀近期上升
美国12月升息近定调
345点看 2016年11月16日

随着通胀预期的上升,美联储可能会加快加息脚步。

(华盛顿16日讯)分析员11月初曾经反复警言称,特朗普赢得美国大选会导致美联储加息几率下降;然而实际情况是,他的当选让美联储12月加息几乎成了势在必行之事。


期货市场行情表明,美联储在12月13至14日举行的今年最后一次政策会议上采取行动的几率,现已达到大约94%,创出了今年以来的最高水平。

特朗普的财政开支计划致使市场认定,随着通胀预期的上升,美联储可能会加快加息脚步。

经济前景变亮

加拿大皇家银行驻悉尼经济及固定收益策略师洪素林(译音)说:“2017年以及之后的美国经济增长前景,可能已多了几分光明,于是市场将12月行动预期,推高到了差不多板上钉钉的地步,尽管我们的确有必要先对特朗普及其新政府有一个更加清晰的认识。”

彭博债券交易数据显示,基准10年期美国国债殖利率基本持平,报2.22%。

美联储12月加息的可能性,已较本月月初时的68%显着增加。

新兴市场混乱 基金经理不敢休假

在特朗普爆冷赢得美国大选之后,东南亚新兴市场崩盘,非常令人不安,导致基金经理不敢休假。

根据彭博社报道,艾仑理查德森取消了度假计划,他说:“今年真的很混乱。”

这位三星资产运用驻香港的投资经理称:“由于波动剧烈,今年想跑赢市场太难了。我可休不起假。”

艾仑理查德森的东盟股票基金,今年以来的回报率高达19%,击败了91%同类基金。

自特朗普11月8日当选在新兴市场掀起风暴以来,约10亿美元(约43亿令吉)撤出了印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国股市。

东南亚受到的冲击尤其严重,印尼和菲律宾指数在非拉美市场忝陪末座。该地区股市已回吐今年很大一部分涨幅。

艾仑理查德森说:“今年早些时候流入的资金正在撤离,市场没想到特朗普会获胜。多数投资者不得不重新调整自己的投资组合。这将持续一段时间。 ”


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Re: FED
« Reply #201 on: November 17, 2016, 06:52:33 AM »



Fed Rate-Hike Odds Approach 100% in Anticipation of Trumponomics
 Wes Goodman
 richwesgoodman
 Marianna Duarte De Aragao
 aragaomarianna
November 16, 2016 — 9:12 AM MYT Updated on November 17, 2016 — 12:01 AM MYT
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Are Markets Still Pricing in a December Rate Hike?
Old Mutual says next target for 10-year Treasury yield is 2.5%
Global bond index drops 1.5% in Nov., worst month since 2013
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Analysts spent early November warning a Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election would make the Federal Reserve less likely to raise interest rates. What happened instead is that it made a December increase a near certainty.
QUICKTAKE
The Fed Lifts Off, Barely
Traders assign about a 94 percent probability, the highest level this year, to a Fed boost at its final meeting for the year on Dec. 13-14, futures contracts indicate. Trump’s spending plans, and Republican control of Congress, are causing the market to revise higher its outlook for the pace of Fed rate increases.

“It’s hard not to think this is incredibly reflationary for the global economy,” said Mark Nash, the head of global bonds in London at Old Mutual Global Investors, which oversees about $37 billion. “We believe there should be more hikes priced in and bond yields should rise,” he said Tuesday in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Treasury 10-year note yields rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, at 2.24 percent as of 10:41 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2 percent security due in November 2026 dropped 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 7/8. The yield climbed to 2.3 percent Monday, the highest this year. The next target is 2.5 percent, Nash said.
The odds of a Fed move by December have risen from 68 percent at the start of November as inflation expectations surged.

Beyond December, swaps trading shows the expectation for a faster tightening cycle. Overnight index swap contracts implied the central bank’s benchmark rate will be 1.25 percent in two years’ time, compared with an expected 0.83 percent on Nov. 7, the day before the U.S. election. That means the market is pricing in another hike as Trump’s win and a Republican-controlled Congress portend a wave of spending to bolster the U.S. economy.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said there’s a chance the U.S. economy could get a medium-term boost if Trump increases infrastructure spending and tax reforms, though it’s too soon to say how the economy may be affected by the election.
Read more: Bullard’s view on Fed and economy
A “single policy-rate increase, possibly in December, may be sufficient to move monetary policy to a neutral setting,” he said, according to slides released by his office for a speech in London Wednesday.
Trump’s election helped drive a bond-market rout that has pushed Bank of America Corp.’s Global Broad Market Index down 1.5 percent in November, heading for the biggest monthly decline since May 2013.
A gauge of expectations for U.S. consumer prices this week climbed to the highest level since April 2015. The difference between yields on 10-year notes and similar-maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities climbed to 1.97 percentage points on Monday, the highest this year.
An inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, the price index for personal consumption expenditures, rose to an annual rate of 1.2 percent in September. The central bank’s target is 2 percent.
Read more about the Fed’s rate path.
Wholesale prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly weak in October as declines in the costs of services offset increases in goods. The unchanged reading in the producer-price index from the previous month followed a 0.3 percent rise in September, a Labor Department report showed Wednesday in Washington.
Traders are waiting for Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Thursday, where she may discuss her outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
“The inflation story is still in play,” with a rally in oil prices on hopes that OPEC members are discussing a cut in output also driving inflation expectations, said Birgit Figge, a fixed-income strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. “The market is expecting an interest-rate hike in December, and there is no fundamental reason for the Fed” to disappoint, she said.

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Re: FED
« Reply #202 on: November 18, 2016, 06:31:12 AM »



Yellen: Rate hike 'appropriate relatively soon,' cites dangers in waiting
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
6 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
 Yellen on labor market and wage growth    Yellen on labor market and wage growth 
7 Hours Ago | 04:00
Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday made her strongest comments to date in favor for a policy tightening in December, telling Congress an increase could be "appropriate relatively soon."

The head of the U.S. central bank also cited the dangers of waiting too long, which could result in the Fed having to move too quickly in the future, according to remarks she delivered to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Both arguments reflect sentiments that have been expressed by the hawkish minority on the Federal Open Market Committee. Dissenters from the committee's doves have worried that keeping rates so low might force the Fed's hand in the future and cause economic and market disruptions.

"Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee's longer-run policy goals" on inflation and jobs, Yellen said. "Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability."
The committee's next meeting is Dec. 13-14.

While stating the case for an imminent hike, Yellen also repeated her pledge that subsequent moves will come at a gradual pace. Critics have worried that the Fed has missed opportunities to normalize policy, but Yellen said "the risk of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited, and gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years."

Yellen's speech came amid heightened anticipation that the Fed will hike its key short-term interest rate target next month for the first time in a year.
The U.S. central bank last hiked in December 2015, which in itself was the first tightening since June 2006. Rates had been anchored near zero since the financial crisis in 2008.

Speculation that the Fed might hold off if Donald Trump won the presidency may prove unfounded. In fact, the billionaire businessman's triumph and the Republican hold on Congress only increased the market's anticipation of a December hike, The probability stands now at nearly 91 percent, according to the CME.

Yellen said the economy is making progress toward the Fed's goals of maximum employment and price stability but still "has a bit more room to run." Inflation is running faster and GDP growth has picked up as well, though business investment remains soft and consumer spending is posting moderate gains.

"With the federal funds rate currently only somewhat below estimates of the neutral rate, the stance of monetary policy is likely moderately accommodative, which is appropriate to foster further progress toward the FOMC's objectives," she said.
She cited persistently low oil prices as one reason for the low levels of business investment. She also said that despite a 4.9 percent unemployment rate that is bumping up against the Fed's standard for full employment, there "appears to be scope for some further improvement in the labor market."

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Re: FED
« Reply #203 on: November 23, 2016, 08:20:38 PM »



财经  2016年11月23日
川普效应 美下月升息成定局

(纽约23日讯)交易员认为美联储(Fed)下月升息机率达到100%,升息已无悬念,投资者认为美国准总统川普將扩大財政支出,促使通胀升温,意味Fed將加快升息节奏。

Fed將在12月13日至14日召开会议,《彭博》资讯报导,联邦基金利率期货显示,美国升息的机率首度达到100%。

美国周一標售2年期公债,得標利率写下2009年以来最高水平;美国周二標售340亿美元5年期公债,发行利率为去年12月以来最高纪录。

川普在竞选期间承诺將大幅减税,並承诺未来10年投入基础建设的资金將高达1兆美元。川普入主白宫后,债市下跌,美元走强,股市上涨。


Fed主席耶伦上周也表示,升息可能相对很快就会成为適当之举。

三井住友信托资產管理公司债券投资人栗木英明说,经歷川普震撼后,Fed升息易如反掌,主要是通胀预期已经增强,道琼工业指数也走高,美国下月升息是100%確定的事。

美股衝破19000点

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周二首次收盘升破19,000点,延续了美国主要股指近来一系列里程碑式的表现。

周二道琼斯指数上涨67点,至19024点,涨幅0.4%。標准普尔500指数上涨0.2%,至2203点;那斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%,至5386点。3大股指均刷新纪录。

道琼斯指数周二全天都在19000点附近徘徊,最终收于19024点。道指上次收于18000点以下是在11月4日。自那以来,美国总统大选尘埃落定后股市一路走高,工业和银行类股尤其受益,均推高了道指

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Re: FED
« Reply #204 on: December 01, 2016, 06:49:28 AM »



财经  2016年11月30日
美升息支撑美元 亚洲可暂缓降息

美升息支撑美元 亚洲可暂缓降息
安本伊斯兰资產管理公司首席执行员杰拉德(左起)、吴丽如、大卫以及哈希尔发表明年市场前景看法。

(吉隆坡30日讯)安本资產管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)认为,美联储12月將会升息,带动美元走强,进而减低了亚洲区域国家包括大马,降息的迫切性。

联储局將在12月13日举行今年最后一次的公开市场委员会,市场普遍认为,联储局將在是次的会议决定升息,美国升息將进一步支撑美元走强。对於考虑降息以推动经济的部份亚洲国家,在这样的局势中,將可以暂缓行动。

安本资產管理在今日邀请了该公司亚太区多元资產方案主管吴丽如、公司管理部主管大卫以及伊斯兰资產投资经理哈希尔,发表对明年市场前景的看法。

川普胜出美国总统选举之后,新兴市场货幣剧烈震盪。而对於川普明年上任后的政策方向,市场也感到忧虑。


吴丽如指出,川普欲振兴美国国內基建和减税政策,短期內对美国经济无疑是支强心剂。惟她也认为美国短期和长期的经济发展之间存在缝隙,川普这位生意人在提高了政府支出之余,將如何保证美国的长期发展將不得而知。

「美国通胀率从7月至今,攀升的压力加速,因此美国政府在迅速提高支出的当儿,也將可能引发滯胀(stagflation)。」

她也指出,美联储一旦升息,大马等国家將暂时没有降息的必要性,虽然目前令吉承受卖压,並有被低估的可能性。

令吉稳定国行才降息

哈希尔也认为,「在令吉走势稳定之前,国行將不会將降息政策纳入考量中。」但他补充,大马以及一些亚洲国家依然拥有足够的空间可以降息。

大马的实际政策利率(Real Policy Rate)为1.5%,远高於韩国、日本;而美国和欧盟国家甚至在负数。

另外,吴丽如预测,全球的债券收益率料將逐步走高,这可从美国、德国、法国等国家的债券收益率,在川普当选后至今,已经走高的趋势可窥探一二。

「在长期收益率走高后,债券的价格也会越来越便宜。」

全球市场充满不確定因素,而在美国和欧盟的货幣政策尘埃若定前,吴丽如奉劝投资者离场观望。而她本身也趋向投资於美国、日本和一些能够进行货幣对冲的市场以减低风险。

哈希尔坦言,「相比新兴市场,这些国家的基本面更为强劲。在资本外流的情况下,新兴市场在明年首季前,將会持续动盪。」

他也认为,资本外流问题对於大马来说,也是不可忽视。惟大马在许多本地机构,包括公积金局和保险业者的支撑下,所承受的衝击將比印尼轻微。

「目前国內多数债券收益率处在4%左右,可见大马债券市场相当具有投资价值。」

他举例,国油拥有稳定的净现金,资本支出也在良好的控制范围內,因此该公司所发行的美元债卷风险和回酬都相当可观。

安本乐观看大马前景

哈希尔表示,「大马政府在徵收了消费税和专注其他领域发展后,已经不再如从前那般依赖油气领域。大马政府在2017財政预算案中,將今明2年的原油价格,假设为每桶35美元和45美元,因此原油价格復甦,將致使大马政府拥有更宽鬆的预算以作更多的发展。」

针对本地时间今晚举行的油盟会议,吴丽如认为,石油出口国组织(OPEC)不会作出大幅度的减產,主要是因为非OPEC国家如俄罗斯也可能正伺机而动,等待OPEC达成减產协议,便趁机增產以抢占市场份额。

整体来说,安本资產管理对大马未来前景还是抱持乐观的看法。吴丽如看好令吉走弱,將振兴大马经济,对於一些出口公司的营业额增长,更是锦上添花。

大卫则预测,明年综合指数的企业盈利將成长5%至10%。而安本资產管理指出,按企业治理排名,大马排在適合投资市场的第6位,名列新加坡、香港、日本、台湾和泰国之后

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Re: FED
« Reply #205 on: December 08, 2016, 08:57:02 PM »



财经  2016年12月08日
市场预测:Fed加息0.5%

(纽约8日讯)美联储(Fed)將于美东时间14日宣布利率决策,目前金融市场几乎篤定认为会升息0.25%,但也出现基准利率调高0.5%的声音,儘管机率非常低。至于明年的升息速度,將取决于美国经济成长的力道。

最新联邦资金利率期货交易资料显示,预期Fed本月升息0.25%的机率高达96%,而预期升息0.5%的机率有4%,显示仍有少数人认为,Fed需一口气调高50个基点,才能压制川普当选美国总统后逐渐升高的通胀预期。

投资者目前已將焦点转向明年的升息速度。

川普胜选后,许多人相信川普的减税及扩张基建支出政策將会拉高通胀,因而迫使Fed加速升息以免通胀失控;加上最近油价大涨,更使交易商预期Fed明年將加速升息。


有关2017年Fed升息速度,市场仍分成两派。

「急升派」预期將升0.75%,「缓升派」预期升0.25%,关键在于两派对2017年美国经济成长的预估不同

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Re: FED
« Reply #206 on: December 15, 2016, 06:40:12 AM »



Fed Raises Key Interest Rate, Citing Strengthening Economy
By REUTERS 00:52
Fed Raises Rates
Video Janet Yellen, chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, remarked on the Fed's decision to raise interest rates as the economy strengthens, signaling an intention to continue to slowly raise rates.
By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
DECEMBER 14, 2016
WASHINGTON — Citing the steady growth of the American economy, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would increase its benchmark interest rate for just the second time since the 2008 financial crisis.

The widely expected decision moves the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range between 0.5 percent and 0.75 percent, still a very low level by historical standards.

In announcing the decision, which followed a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policy-making committee, the central bank gave little indication that the election of Donald J. Trump has altered its economic outlook. The Fed said it still expected a slow economic expansion, and it still expected to continue a slow march toward higher rates. Fed officials said they expected to raise rates three times in 2017.

“My colleagues and I are recognizing the considerable progress the economy has made,” Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, said at a news conference after the announcement. “We expect the economy will continue to perform well.”

The decision was taken by a unanimous vote of the 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the first time in recent months the Fed has acted by consensus. The Fed is holding rates at low levels to support economic growth by encouraging borrowing and risk-taking. The committee’s statement said it judged that the economy still needed help.


The Fed’s economic outlook was essentially unchanged from the last round of forecasts in September. Fed officials continued to predict the economy would expand at an annual rate of about 2 percent for the next few years. They expect little further decline in the unemployment rate, which stood at 4.6 percent in November. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to reach 2 percent — the pace the Fed regards as healthy — and then stay there.

It is a Goldilocks forecast. Not too hot, not too cold — just right.

Fed officials predicted they would raise the Fed’s benchmark rate a little more quickly in the coming years, reaching 2.1 percent by the end of 2018. In September they had predicted that it would reach 1.9 percent by the end of 2018. The new projections, however, still reflected a significantly slower pace of increase than Fed officials predicted last December, when they expected the benchmark rate to reach 3.3 percent by the end of 2018.


The combination of steady growth and faster rate increases implies that Fed officials expect to offset a modest increase in fiscal stimulus.

The November elections have complicated the Fed’s outlook. Republicans will control the White House and both chambers of Congress next year, setting the stage for significant changes in fiscal policy after years of gridlock.

Mr. Trump has promised to increase economic growth through measures like tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

The Fed has said that it expected to slowly increase its benchmark rate so long as the economy continues its own slow-and-steady expansion. If Republicans succeed in invigorating economic growth, however, the Fed is likely to raise rates more quickly. The greater the stimulus, the faster interest rates are likely to rise.


Interactive Feature | What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates, in One Rube Goldberg Machine Exactly seven years ago, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to almost zero in order to nurse the ailing economy back to health. Recently it changed direction. This is how it works.
“Your expectation should depend very little on what you think that the F.O.M.C. is thinking and very much on your view of Trump policies and their macro effects,” said Jon Faust, an economist at Johns Hopkins University and a former adviser to Ms. Yellen. “Don’t focus on the Fed. As James Carville regularly reminded the other Clinton on the campaign trail: It’s the economy, stupid.”

The economy, for now, keeps plodding along. Steady job growth has reduced the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, a level the Fed considers healthy. A little unemployment is natural as people move among jobs and businesses open and close. Several Fed districts reported emerging labor shortages in the central bank’s latest compilation of economic reports, published in November. In the Philadelphia district, construction workers are hard to find. Atlanta reported a shortage of nurses; Kansas City, truck drivers; in Dallas, tech workers.

Ms. Yellen and other Fed officials have said they see some signs of stronger wage growth. Inflation, too, has picked up a little in recent months. Yet both wages and inflation continue to rise more slowly than the Fed wants.

Some economists argue that the Fed should wait until inflation strengthens before raising rates, to test whether a stronger economy would convince some people sidelined during the downturn to start looking for jobs. That would expand the labor force. Unemployment remains particularly high among minorities.

That view, however, has found little support among Fed officials, who worry that interest rates will have to be raised more quickly if the central bank waits too long, increasing the chances that it would end up pushing the economy into recession.

“Apparently Fed officials think the economy is growing too quickly,” said Ady Barkan, the director of Fed Up, a coalition of liberal groups that is pressing the Fed to continue its stimulus campaign. “I doubt you can find many other Americans who share that opinion. And it’s a strange conclusion to draw in the wake of an election that was so heavily impacted by voters’ economic discontent.”

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Re: FED
« Reply #207 on: December 15, 2016, 04:13:25 PM »



财经
避談特朗普 耶倫:絕不受政府干預
 354点阅   2016年12月15日
20161216fbc10a

(華盛頓15日訊)美聯儲主席耶倫(Janet Yellen)週三(14日)表示,不排除會在2018年2月任期結束后繼續留在美聯儲,並表示絕不接受政府干預,強烈相信央行必須保持獨立。



綜合外電報導,耶倫在美聯儲為期兩日的會議結束后舉行的記者會上強調,目前政府計劃未定,仍不致于影響升息腳步太多,儘管特朗普的意見可能與美聯儲相左,但她強烈的相信,央行必須保持獨立。

她在會上極力不對政治作出任何預判,拒絕猜測這些沒有根據的事情。

但耶倫強調,她不認為依現在的情況,大規模的財政刺激能解決問題。從前美聯儲高呼財政刺激時,是因為失業率遠遠高于現在。

她並不喜歡特朗普針對美聯儲及其他民間企業進行干預,美聯儲也不應對政府下指導棋,她相信,美聯儲自始至終應保持其獨立性。

任期結束或留在美聯儲

在競選期間嚴厲批評耶倫的美國候任總統特朗普曾表示,很可能在耶倫任期結束后替換她。

不過,耶倫在記者會上重申,打算做滿4年任期。她說,國會有意讓美聯儲主席的任期跨越新一屆政府的初期階段,目的就在于確保美聯儲的獨立性。

但她指出,自己尚未決定是否在任期結束后繼續留在美聯儲。

耶倫表示知道在主席任期結束后,可以留在美聯儲擔任理事會成員,但那將是以后要做的決定。耶倫身為美聯儲理事會成員的14年任期,會直到2024年1月31日才結束。

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Re: FED
« Reply #208 on: January 06, 2017, 06:36:20 AM »



决策者:经济有上行风险
美联储或被迫加快升息
173点看 2017年1月5日
 
美联储可能最终要被迫加快升息速度,以抑制通胀。

(华盛顿5日讯)美联储官员们在12月政策会议上,重点讨论了潜在财政刺激的影响,许多决策者开始担忧央行可能最终要被迫加快升息速度,以抑制通胀。


美联储昨日在华盛顿发布的联邦公开市场委员会12月13至14日会议纪要,几乎所有的与会者表示:“在未来几年更具扩张性财政政策前景的影响下,他们的经济增长预测所面临的上行风险增加。”

尽管越来越重视财政刺激引发经济增长比目前预期更快的风险,委员会多数成员仍重申,未来几年渐进升息仍然可能是合适之举。

美联储在该次政策会议上决定升息25个基点。会议纪要显示,会议期间,有关财政政策的不确定因素是决策者们对经济和未来货币政策道路讨论的重心所在。

当选总统特朗普在竞选过程中承诺降低税负,增加基础设施支出和放松监管。但他自从11月8日胜选以来,还没有提供太多细节。

会议纪要指出:“与会者强调了有关任何未来财政和其他经济政策措施的时机、规模和组成,以及这些政策如何影响总需求和总供给的巨大不确定性。”

预测财政扩张

委员会对于失业率可能的下行空间产生分歧,并对如果显着低于美联储目标情况下对通胀的影响意见不一。

会议纪要指出,许多与会者判断失业率下行出现相当幅度过冲的风险已有所增加。不过,大多数与会者预计,失业率将只会跌至略低于他们对长期正常水平的估计。

该纪要还显示,大约一半的委员会成员,已开始把扩张财政政策的假设融入到他们的预测中。

在仍强调经济下行风险的官员们中,一些人反复提及由美元升值所产生的挑战。

FOMC一年召开八次例行政策会议,下次会议定于1月31日至2月1日举行。


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Re: FED
« Reply #209 on: January 08, 2017, 07:08:16 PM »



New policies coming to US could take weight off Fed - Powell
Jason Lange, Reuters
8 Jan 2017, PM 4:03 (Updated 8 Jan 2017, PM 4:17)
 donaldtrump

 
A push by Washington for more business-friendly regulation and fiscal support for the economy could improve America's mix of policies which in recent years have relied too much on the Federal Reserve, Fed governor Jerome Powell said.

Powell, speaking yesterday at a conference, did not mention the incoming Trump administration by name but his comments suggest some Trump policies will be welcomed by US central bankers who have been urging other institutions to do more to help the economy.

"We may be moving more to a more balanced policy with what sounds like more business-friendly regulation and possibly more fiscal support," Powell told an economics conference in Chicago.

Editor's Pick
 
Why a McDonald’s boycott is misplaced
President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan 20, has promised to double America's pace of economic growth, "rebuild" its infrastructure and slash regulatory burdens.

About half of the Fed's 17 policymakers factored a fiscal stimulus into their economic forecasts published in December, according to minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting.

That expected stimulus has led several policymakers to say the Fed will likely raise rates more quickly, but Powell said new policies could also ease the Fed's burden.

"Monetary policy (might be) able to hand it off and I think that's a healthier thing," he said. "We may be moving to a more balanced policy mix."

Following a Congress-enacted fiscal stimulus during and immediately after the 2007-09 recession, the Fed in recent years has been widely seen as the economic authority working the hardest to help the economy.

But throughout 2016, Fed policymakers worried publicly that the US economy was stuck in a low growth path and central banking tools could do little to fix this. Central bankers urged Congress and the US president to pass laws that would help make US businesses and workers more productive.

Fed officials say they still do not know much about how the new administration will change policy. Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan said yesterday some new policies could help economic growth and others might slow it down.

"Be careful what you wish for," Kaplan said.

Minneapolis Fed president Neil Kashkari, also speaking in Chicago yesterday, said some banking regulations could tighten under Trump in order to prevent future bailouts.

The US labor market is widely viewed as close to full strength and inflation has shown signs of moving closer to the Fed's 2 percent target. Powell said there appeared to be higher chances the US economy could outperform expectations.

- Reuters

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Re: FED
« Reply #210 on: January 11, 2017, 06:54:13 AM »



叶伦继承人暗示
美明年收紧货币政策
84点看 2017年1月11日
 

(纽约10日讯)有可能在2018年接替叶伦出任美联储主席的几位候选人均暗示,若自己上任将主张收紧货币政策。在上周日结束的美国经济学会年会上,哥伦比亚大学的哈伯德、斯坦福大学的约翰泰勒和凯文沃什,都批评美联储为帮助经济做得过多,而经济目前疲于应对的问题却是货币政策无法解决的。


美联储观察人士认为,这三位原小布什政府官员都在美联储主席候选人之列。

如果特朗普决定不再提名叶伦连任,她将在2018年2月任期结束时卸任。

特朗普不满低息

特朗普在竞选期间,曾指责叶伦故意压低利率以使形势有利于民主党。

“美联储(在加息上)略微落后于形势所需。”约翰泰勒上周六在于芝加哥举行的小组讨论上表示。他曾是小布什当政时在财政部负责国际事务的副部长。

在小布什政府主管白宫经济顾问委员会的哈伯德表示,就他所理解,特朗普的立场是美国在近几年太过依赖美联储来支持经济,他同意特朗普的意见。

“美联储在危机过后初期做得非常成功,但后面继续实施的或许是已过时的政策。”他在经济学会一个小组讨论中说道。

或配合加快升息

美联储去年12月启动2006年来第二次加息,是7年来把利率维持在零附近之后恢复正常政策部分内容。

目前,美联储的隔夜银行间联邦基金利率目标在0.5%-0.75%。

12月14日公布的美联储官员预期中值显示,到2017年年末,目标区间中点将上调至1.4%,2018年年末前将上调至2.1%。

哈伯德称,如果特朗普看上去将成功落实大幅减税和增加基础设施领域支出的计划,美联储可能就得加快加息速度。

跟风错失升息机会

原美联储官员、小布什经济顾问凯文沃什在经济学会于周五举行的另一场会议上表示,在评估政策影响上,财政政策最终的构成比规模更为重要。

美联储的经济模型是否能胜任这项分析任务,他持怀疑态度。

他认为,美联储在追求他所谓“跟风走”的短期政策的过程中,错失早些时候经济增长带来的升息机会。

他对美联储已经如此接近就业最大化和物价稳定的目标,利率却还如此之低发出质疑。

他的讲话重点集中在呼吁美联储实施广泛改革上。

在斯坦福大学商学院任讲师的凯文沃什认为,美联储应该停止过分依赖于数据面的“最新噪音”,而是设定一个“有着清晰定义和明确表述的策略”来达成目标。


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Re: FED
« Reply #211 on: January 19, 2017, 10:17:05 AM »



财经
耶倫:每年升息數次 美元全面翻漲!
 1197点阅   2017年1月19日 財經
20170120fb80

美聯儲主席耶倫週三稱,料在2019年底前,每年升息數次,美元應聲而漲。



受其講話影響,週三美元指數收報101.260,升0.95%;根據彭博即時匯價,美元週四在亞洲盤初兌亞洲貨幣亦全面翻漲,一掃前日陰霾。

根據國家銀行開市報價,令吉兌美元今早跌0.16%,報4.453。

耶倫在舊金山出席加州聯邦俱樂部活動時發表講話時如是指出:“等太久才開始向中向利率靠攏,可能會在未來出現不願意看到的意外風險,即要么通脹太高、要么金融不穩定,抑或兩者都有。”

“在那種情況下,我們可能被迫快速升息,從而會將經濟拖入新的衰退。”

“路透社”報導,隨著美國經濟接近充分就業、通脹邁向美聯儲2%的目標回升,耶倫稱逐步升息是“合理的”。

美聯儲上月升息,僅為2007至2009年金融危機以來的第2次。耶倫稱,去年12月升息反映出美聯儲對經濟將繼續復甦的信心。

聯邦公開市場委員會的決策者在12月會議公佈的點狀圖中位數顯示,他們今年可能要升息3次、每次25個基點。

對此,耶倫稱她和其他官員預計,至2019年美聯儲每年都會升息幾次,令聯邦基金利率接近3%的長期可持續利率水準。

不過,上述升息步伐可能會再作出調整,端看經濟發展前景而定

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Re: FED
« Reply #212 on: January 26, 2017, 04:33:11 PM »



财经
頻升息扛上低美元 奶奶和狂人免不了大幹一場
 396点阅   2017年1月26日
20170127fb99g



(紐約26日訊)法國巴黎銀行預言,美聯儲將在下半年火力全開升息,2018年更會每季都升息,同時估計升息會提振美元看漲,黃金價格恐下探每安士1000美元(約4437令吉)。

“彭博社”引述法國巴黎銀行報告指出,特朗普擬提出財政擴張政策和其他新政策,或有助提高2018年薪資,帶動勞動力成本攀升,但身為央行的美聯儲料在今年下半年提高借貸成本。

不過,如果美聯儲加速收緊貨幣政策,這表示美國政府需要提前償還欠美聯儲的錢。這樣一來,特朗普除了背負前任總統奧巴馬留下的20兆美元(約87兆令吉)債務,還要面對提前還清美聯儲債務,屆時特朗普政府一定面對龐大的財政壓力。



繼特朗普在去年11月意外勝選后,市場樂觀看待經濟展望,而金價持續走低至本月才見反彈。

過往數據顯示,法國巴黎銀行在去年末季是預測黃金和貴金屬價格,最神準的機構。

該銀行大宗原產品策略師說:“黃金在2017年上半年,可能有通脹升高的利多支撐。可是美聯儲會在下半年升息,維持美元強勢。”

美聯儲去年12月宣布多年來的首次升息,投資人想要知道進一步升息的潛在時間點。目前美國經濟顯現復甦跡象,特朗普信誓旦旦要加速美國經濟增長,創造就業機會,增加基礎建設支出

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Re: FED
« Reply #213 on: February 01, 2017, 08:23:43 PM »



静候特朗普政策细节
美国料维持0.75%利率
66点看 2017年2月1日
 
叶伦:美联储逐步升息是“合理的”。

(华盛顿1日讯)美联储将在周三结束特朗普就任美国总统以来的首次政策会议,预计将维持利率不变,静候特朗普经济政策更为明晰。

特朗普曾承诺大幅增加基础设施投资、减税、放松监管并重新协商贸易协议,但自11月8日胜选以来,并未提供多少细节或提出实现这些目标的时间表。

在周三结束为期两日的政策会议后,美联储将公布最新的政策声明。美联储主席叶伦并无召开记者会的计划。

叶伦此前曾表示,随着美国经济接近充分就业、通胀向美联储2%的目标回升,联储逐步升息是“合理的”。

路透调查的分析员几乎均排除美联储在本次会议升息的可能。根据芝加哥商业交易所(CME)汇编的美联储期货数据,投资人预计下次升息是在6月。

美联储在12月的政策会议上,将指标利率调高至0.5%至0.75%,为10年来第二次升息。并预计今年还会进一步升息三次。

尽管美国经济数据表现喜人,美联储政策制定者目前并不急于评估通胀升速如何,他们还需要掌握关于特朗普经济计划的更多信息。

接近完全就业

凯投宏观经济学家保罗称:“目前关于财政政策、刺激的潜力及其构成因素,均存在极大的不确定性,在了解如何应对之前,美联储不会做出反应。”

当前美国经济已经接近完全就业,特朗普的财政刺激及税收改革承诺可能快速推升通胀,就像对墨西哥征收“边境税”那样。

这可能导致美联储政策制定者加速升息。

而打击移民等其他政策则有违美联储所认为的、美国经济长期增长所需要的环境。


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Re: FED
« Reply #214 on: February 02, 2017, 10:47:05 AM »



财经
美聯儲維持利率不變 暗示加快升息
 977点阅   2017年2月02日
20170203fb80



(華盛頓2日訊)美聯儲宣佈美國聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在0.5%至0.75%,並暗示今年將按計劃進一步上調短期利率。

美聯儲指出,隨著通脹向目標水平邁進,今年將按既定計劃進一步上調短期利率。不過,該儲並未就下次升息時間提供明確指示。

美聯儲在會后聲明中提到,消費者和企業情緒改善,預計通脹將升至2%目標,而它將進一步逐漸調整利率。



美聯儲在過去2年只升息2次,但其在12月發布的最近預測似乎表明,它將在未來幾年加快升息。此次利率不變的決定,符合市場和分析師們的預期;下次議息會議將在3月14至15日舉行。

《金融時報》報導,圍繞美聯儲政策的關鍵不確定性是,共和黨方面在減稅和加大基礎設施支出問題上的討論結果。

根據稅收政策中心預計,特朗普在大選期間提出的稅收計劃將使國家債務在10年期間增加約7.2兆美元(約32兆令吉),而眾議院共和黨人的計劃將使債務提高至少3兆美元(約13.3兆令吉)。

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Re: FED
« Reply #215 on: February 05, 2017, 09:05:50 AM »



美就业创新高薪资放缓
3月加息几率低
112点看 2017年2月4日
 170205x1401_noresize

(华盛顿4日讯)美国1月份非农就业人数增幅创四个月以来的新高,但薪资增幅放缓的幅度大于预期,暗示劳动力市场仍然存在一些闲置。


美国劳工部周五在华盛顿公布的数据显示,1月份非农就业人数增加22.7万,12月为增加15.7万。接受彭博调查的经济学家预期中值为18.0万。1月份失业率升至4.8%,平均时薪同比上升2.5%,创去年8月以来的最低水平。

这是上一任总统奥巴马任下的最后一份就业数据,暗示劳动力市场表现依然稳健,但仍未足以令薪资出现大幅增长。

虽然分析员预计,随着经济逼近全面就业,招聘步伐将会放缓,但现任总统特朗普已经承诺,要让人们重新回到就业岗位中,并且通过减税、基建投资和放松管制等方式来提高薪资。

穆迪经济学家莱恩指出:“我们如此接近全面就业,但尚未真正地看到预期当中的薪资增速的大幅加快,我认为我们正在逐渐逼近这种情况,只是还需要一点时间。”

议员压力增

安联保险集团首席经济顾问埃尔埃利安称,美国黯淡的薪资增长,或促使美联储暂停加息,同时议员面临更大的压力要确保更多美国民众获益于经济增长。

他表示,薪资数据令人失望,这降低了美联储在3月份加息的可能性。这更加要求侧重于结构性措施来提振薪资增长。

美联储本周早些时候维持利率不变后,几乎没有暗示何时可能会收紧货币政策。去年12月份时,决策层称预期2017年加息三次。


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Re: FED
« Reply #216 on: February 13, 2017, 08:33:00 PM »



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财经  2017年02月13日
耶伦国会作证 市场紧盯Fed升息线索

(华盛顿13日讯)本周美联储(Fed)主席耶伦將成市场关注焦点,她向国会发表的经济与货幣政策证词,若透露Fed下次升息的线索,可能在市场激起波澜。

耶伦订14日赴参议院银行委员会发表半年一度的证词,隔天则在眾议院金融服务委员会报告。

Fed下次升息时机,以及何时终止资產负债表再投资,將是两大观察重点。

Fed已预告今年可能升息3次,但月初发布的会后声明未透露任何蛛丝马跡,投资者密切注意耶伦对下次升息时机的发言。


另一焦点是,Fed准备何时缩小规模4.5兆美元的资產负债表。市场普遍认为,目前还言之过早。

另外,议员可能在答询时间询问耶伦有关Fed独立性、经济展望、对特朗普政策提案看法等问题。

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Re: FED
« Reply #217 on: February 15, 2017, 12:20:08 PM »



2017-02-15 09:21
美联储3月加息?.叶伦:未来几次会议将讨论
美国联邦储备委员会主席叶伦14日表示,美国经济正朝着预期方向前进,美联储将在未来几次货币政策例会上讨论是否再次加息。

(图:法新社)
(美国.华盛顿15日讯)美国联邦储备委员会主席叶伦14日表示,美国经济正朝着预期方向前进,美联储将在未来几次货币政策例会上讨论是否再次加息。

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叶伦当天在美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会作证时说,美国经济继续朝着充份就业和2%的通膨目标稳步前进。她表示,美联储预计美国经济将继续保持温和增长势头,就业市场将继续改善,通膨率将继续回升。

叶伦再次强调,当前经济形势决定未来渐进加息的节奏是合适的。她表示,等待太久才开始加息是不明智的,这有可能迫使美联储此后不得不加快加息节奏,从而可能引发金融市场波动,威胁经济增长。

叶伦还指出,美国财政政策变化及其他经济政策会影响美国经济前景,由于政策细节仍不明朗,目前尚难判断政策变化带来的潜在影响。

在问答环节,叶伦表示,对监管规定进行审查是合法的,也非常重要。她将与美国财政部及其他监管机构合作,对现有金融监管政策进行审查。

美国总统特朗普近期签署行政命令,要求美国财政部对现有金融监管法律法规进行审查,为未来放松对金融行业监管铺路。

分析人士认为,叶伦的表态暗示美联储对3月份加息持开放态度。美联储将于3月14日至15日举行下一次货币政策例会。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2017.02.15

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Re: FED
« Reply #218 on: February 23, 2017, 01:36:46 PM »



财经
特朗普或提名補美聯儲空缺 誰是耶倫接班人?
 148点阅   2017年2月21日
(紐約21日訊)隨著美國聯邦儲備局(Fed)理事會的空缺愈來愈多,市場揣測美國總統特朗普可能趁機提名填補人選、及任期于明年屆滿的美聯儲主席耶倫的接班人選。




美聯儲理事會七席中有兩席懸缺,4月亦即將出現第3個空缺,市場已在猜測可能會填補這些空缺的人選,最重要的是,耶倫的任期也將于明年屆滿,市場將密切關注特朗普的提名人選。

德意志銀行經濟學家在最近公布的報告中指出:“在不到18個月時間內,(美聯儲)可能有五席都會由特朗普提名的人選擔任”,特別是耶倫和美聯儲副主席費雪的任期都將于明年屆滿。

由于特朗普傾向在傳統的政治和政策決策圈外挑選提名人選,他的選擇不僅將具備影響力,也會出乎眾人意料之外,可能還會導致市場大幅震盪,因投資人將企圖摸清楚提名人選的立場,並調整投資標的。



德銀指出,特朗普可能屬意市場實務派人士、而非學術派的經濟學家。

德銀指出,不論由誰接任耶倫的位子,都將改變美聯儲目前較謹慎、偏向尋求共識的決策模式。

過去幾年來,美聯儲內部提出的異議的人數都是罕見地少,但這個情況將面臨改變,一切都將取決于特朗普的提名人選會是誰

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Re: FED
« Reply #219 on: March 01, 2017, 03:25:00 PM »



美联储官员讲话暗示
考虑3月加息意愿升温
154点看 2017年3月1日
 

(纽约1日讯)两位颇具影响力的美联储官员表示出更大的收紧货币政策的意愿,并且可能最快在下个月行动。


纽约联储行长威廉达德利(William Dudley)周二接受CNN国际台采访时说,美联储收紧政策的理由在最近几个月已大为增强,“经济前景的风险现在开始转向上行。”

在他讲话之前,旧金山联储行长约翰威廉姆斯(John Williams)表示,加息选项在3月份会议上将得到“认真考虑”。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次会议定于3月14至15日召开。

美联储官员的鹰派基调,反映出对于美国经济增长持久性的信心增强。

2009年经济大衰退结束以来的近8年中,美国经济持续增长。企业和消费者信心攀升,金融市场上涨,并且特朗普总统治下出台扩张性财政政策的可能性提高,这些都助推了大家的乐观情绪。

两位美联储官员讲话之后,联邦基金利率期货价格隐含的3月份加息概率,短暂升至70%以上;当天早些时候大约为50%,不到一周前只有34%。这一概率随后降50%左右,交易员等待美联储叶伦周五的讲话。


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Re: FED
« Reply #220 on: March 04, 2017, 10:21:13 AM »



Highlight
Yellen hints at more aggressive rate path upon locking in March
By Bloomberg / Bloomberg   | March 4, 2017 : 9:20 AM MYT   
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WASHINGTON (March 4): Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen left little doubt on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates this month. More importantly, she dropped hints that it might end up having to increase them this year more than planned.

In a speech to The Executives’ Club of Chicago, Yellen singled out the danger of the central bank being too slow in boosting rates.

“We realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession,” she said.

Yellen all but declared that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase rates for the first time this year at its March 14-15 meeting, saying that such a move “would likely be appropriate” if the economy stays on its current track. She also suggested that would not be the last increase this year.

Policy makers penciled in three quarter percentage-point rate increases for 2017, according to the median projection in forecasts released in December.

Subtle Change

In an indication that she thinks it’s possible the Fed may have to raise rates more than that, Yellen subtly altered her assessment of the current stance of monetary policy, calling it “moderately accommodative.” That contrasts with the “modestly accommodative” description she used in her Jan. 19 speech in Stanford, California.

“That’s a biggie,” said veteran Fed watcher Lou Crandall, in commenting on the word swap by Yellen. “There’s a clear suggestion the Fed may have to step up the pace of its rate increases,” he added. Crandall is chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The small yet significant change in Fed speak suggests Yellen now believes that the current level of interest rates may be providing slightly more support to the economy than she previously thought.

Buttressing that idea: Payrolls are growing well in excess of what Fed officials reckon is sustainable in the long run.

As she did in January, Yellen insisted that the Fed was not behind the curve in raising rates, despite having increased them only twice since the Great Recession ended almost eight years ago.

In the question-and-answer period after the speech, Yellen went out of her way to say that she hadn’t referenced the economic impact of an expansionary fiscal policy in discussing the outlook for interest rates.

“There’s nothing that I said that would be a response to possible impending policy changes” agreed to by President Donald Trump and Congress, she said.

New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday that a more expansive budget policy looks likely. “What that says to me is the risks to the outlook are now starting to tilt to the upside,” he said in an interview broadcast on CNN International.

Achieving Goals

Yellen told the Chicago meeting that the Fed had “essentially” met its goal of maximum employment while inflation was rising towards the central bank’s 2 percent objective.

“The prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat,” Yellen said.

She said that Europe, Japan and China all looked to be doing better.

“Relative to 2016 when all the risks were to the downside, there are members of the committee who think the risks are to the upside and they’ll be happy to get in a hike,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at money manager Wilmington Trust Corp.

While he still expects Fed officials to stick with their forecast of three rate increases in 2017 when they meet later this month, “four hikes are certainly possible this year,” he said.

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Re: FED
« Reply #221 on: March 07, 2017, 08:50:06 AM »



US MARKETS
MARKET MOVERS  DOW 30  NASDAQ 100  IQ 100  SECTORS  WORLD HEAT MAP  US  AMERICAS  ASIA  EU
The world economy can't handle even one US rate hike, strategist Sri-Kumar says
Elizabeth Gurdus   | @elizabethgurdus
9 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
 Expect 'one-a-year' Yellen hike in 2017: Pro   Expect 'one-a-year' Yellen hike in 2017: Pro 
11 Hours Ago | 02:53
Even one small interest rate increase by the Fedcould have a sweeping impact on U.S. and world economies, Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC on Monday.

"I think they are going to hike" on March 15, Sri-Kumar said on "Squawk Box," echoing a theory shared by many analysts. "But that is going to prompt capital outflows from the euro zone, especially with the political risk. It is going to increase the capital outflow from China, and the U.S. economy will feel the impact."

These moves would strengthen the dollar against other currencies, putting downward pressure on the euro, said Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies.

He acknowledged that some of that pressure "is probably good for the European economy from a trade perspective" because European exports would become cheaper to foreign partners.

"The problem is in terms of capital outflows," he said, cautioning that divestment in Europe could raise risk in overseas markets. "These economies, despite some positive numbers, ... they are not in strong enough shape to take an increase in interest rates on the part of the United States."

The reason for this weakness in global markets stems from a long period of liquidity, or market price stability, according to Sri-Kumar.

"We have had too long a period of excessive liquidity," he said. "The markets have been distorted. The bond yields are very, very low, much lower than they would have been in the absence of quantitative easing and zero interest rate policy."

As a result, small changes in the U.S. economy reverberate worldwide, Sri-Kumar said, adding that had the Fed started hiking rates as the country emerged from the 2008 financial crisis, the United States may have been better off.

The strategist argued that if rate normalization had started in 2009, bond yields would be up, equity markets would be rising on the back of fundamentals rather than liquidity creation, and the economy would be improving more rapidly.

"I said they should have raised by 1 to 1½ percentage points three years ago. The markets would have taken a hit, but we would be on the way up. But if you do this Chinese water torture in terms of slight increases, you are not going to get sustained economic growth," Sri-Kumar said.

Sri-Kumar predicted that once the Fed sees the impact of its expected March hike, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will become "a once-a-year Yellen in 2017 as well."

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Re: FED
« Reply #222 on: March 07, 2017, 08:53:34 AM »



Why the Fed's almost-certain rate hike is an even bigger deal than normal
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
5 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
95
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 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen prepares to speak before a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress” on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 14, 2017.   Fed's big rate hike hint for March 
12 Hours Ago | 03:21
The market has spent seven years tethered to the Federal Reserve's every utterance, but now it appears ready to move on.

This may well have been the moment everyone on Wall Street has been waiting for.

Instead of recoiling in terror at the thought that the Fed not only is ready to hike interest rates but also is prepared to do so on a regular basis, the market essentially has shrugged. No wailing, no gnashing of teeth, just a general recognition that higher rates are in the future and that doesn't spell looming catastrophe.

Indeed, the notable part of the reaction was that there was so little reaction, even though the unmistakable momentum for a rate hike seemed to come out of nowhere.

"A March rate hike ... would mark the first time in years that the Fed raised rates when it did not obviously have to do so, in the sense that it was under no pressure either from markets or from its own prior signals to push ahead with an increase," strategists at Evercore ISI said in a note to clients. "This is interesting and in our view has informational content."

The move to hike in March is significant in large part because it indicates the Fed is on a more aggressive trajectory than the market originally thought. Amid the current economic and political climate — not to mention a national debt quickly approaching $20 trillion — a tighter Fed has many implications.

However, Evercore believes the hike should be interpreted not as hawkish, or signaling a more aggressive path to higher rates, but rather as a bullish indicator of confidence in the economy.

A hike out of nowhere

After years of waffling over economic progress and devising reason after reason not to hike, central bank officials from Chair Janet Yellen on down are finally ready to pull the trigger.

"This can be — evidently is — a bullish (risk-on) hike," Evercore added. "Market participants know that the Yellen Fed is super-careful and would not move ahead on hiking earlier than was evidently required unless it was very confident in the outlook — this endorsement can boost confidence and coordinate expectations to a stronger world."

How it all came to be, though, is pretty striking.

Just two weeks ago, the market was putting a less than 1-in-4 chance of a hike. By the time last week had ended and senior Fed officials, including Yellen, had made public speeches, the tide had turned completely.

"I think it's more than a March rate hike. They're putting themselves on a schedule for three to four rate hikes a year."
-Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist, Wells Capital Management
Traders, according to the CME's tracking tool, now assign an 86 percent chance of an increase at the March 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee meeting — a virtual lock when considering Fed history.

"There's not really that much logic to what the Fed is doing in the sense that they should have been doing this a long time ago," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank who in the past has said the Fed should have been raising sooner.

 S&P anticipates the Fed's decision    S&P anticipates the Fed's decision 
6 Hours Ago | 00:14
LaVorgna feared the Fed would wait too long and be pushed into hiking more aggressively once the economy and inflation picked up.

He has cited "significant improvement in soft data," such as business, consumer and investment surveys indicating that confidence is building.

"If you add all those things, it certainly makes sense for the Fed to hike sooner," LaVorgna said. "I'm surprised they got the courage after coming up with every excuse in the past not to move."

Strength around the world

Much attention has been paid to the U.S. presidential election and the emergence of Donald Trump's pro-growth agenda of lower taxes and new government spending. Stocks rallied while keeping government bond yields in check, and financial conditions have loosened.

The closely watched Citigroup Economic Surprise index, which measures data compared with expectations, is around its highest level in three years, as most of the data continue to come in relatively strong.



However, the Fed has been basing policy not only on how the U.S. recovery is coming along, but also on how things are shaping up globally. Indications that Europe isn't about to collapse beneath its sovereign debt load and that Chinahas a firmer grasp on its slowing growth have helped contribute to a growing sense of confidence on a global level.

"It's a broad-based flood of better economic momentum evidence," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "It's also not just real growth, it's nominal — reinflation showing up in a lot of places around the globe."

Paulsen points to several other indicators, particularly gains in median income, that the Fed should use as green lights for more rate hikes.

"I think it's more than a March rate hike. They're putting themselves on a schedule for three to four rate hikes a year," he said.

For now, Fed officials continue to indicate there will be three hikes this year and probably three more in 2018. However, there's already growing speculation that the FOMC moves in March, June and September then enacts a de facto hike in December by announcing that it will begin rolling off some the $4.5 trillion in fixed income assets on its balance sheet.

The committee at its upcoming meeting also will release its summary of economic projections that could provide more clues about the expected growth path ahead, and the corresponding expectations for interest rates

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Re: FED
« Reply #223 on: March 12, 2017, 03:48:49 PM »



就业数据持续稳健
美下周升息无悬念
114点看 2017年3月11日
 
美国2月非农新增职位高于预期,分析预期联储局下周笃定升息。

(华盛顿11日讯)联储局官员接连“放鹰”之际,美国就业数据持续稳健,2月非农新增职位达23.5万个,高于预期的19万个。


美国劳工部周五在华盛顿公布的数据显示,1月新增职位向上修订至23.8万个,今年头两个月的职位增长,是去年7月来最大的两个月升幅。

上月薪酬升幅也较1月提高,时薪按年升幅达2.8%,1月升幅向上修订为2.6%。

分析预期联储局下周四笃定升息。芝加哥商业交易所的利率期货数据显示,交易员认为下周升息的概率达93%,6月升息概率为96.8%。

同时,美国2月失业率亦降至4.7%,较1月低0.1个百分点。

由于升息因素早已反映在市场价格,非农数据公布后,美汇指数下滑0.3%至101.5。美国两年期及10年期国债券息下滑。道指期货升逾百点。

天气温暖提振就业

虽然异乎寻常的温暖天气或许提振了非农就业人数的增长,但美国总统特朗普就职以来第一个完整月的非农就业数据,并且恰逢特朗普胜选之后的经济乐观情绪飙升。

就业网站Glassdoor的首席经济学家安德鲁在非农报告发布前指出,经济乘上了大选之后强烈乐观人气的东风。

经常随天气状况而波动巨大的建筑业就业人数增加5.8万人,是2007年3月以来最高;1月为增加4万人。

制造业就业人数增加2.8万人,达到三年新高。零售业就业减少2.6万人,降幅为2012年12月以来最大。


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Re: FED
« Reply #224 on: March 12, 2017, 03:53:22 PM »



美一旦加息
掀5大效应
2087点看 2017年3月12日
 
美联储主席叶伦。(网络图)

(纽约12日综合电)本周美联储举行决策会议,不论是从最新经济数据、主席叶伦等决策官员的发言,或是从国际整体经济发展趋势来看,加息看来已如箭在弦上,不得不发。


而美国一旦加息,全世界都会受影响。以下是全球金融市场可能受到的影响:

1.超低借贷成本时代告终

美国联邦资金利率仍是全球最重要的指标,除了日本和欧元区等遭遇较独特问题的经济体外,英国、瑞士、瑞典、加拿大和澳洲等国央行势必也会跟进美国升息。

2.通货膨胀增添柴火

随着资金价格上扬,已被压抑多年的通膨势必再起。短期内或许是件好事,但若开始出现失控的迹象,接下来可能又有大麻烦。

3.存款利率将上升

当利率回到正常水准,存款能多少赚点钱,大家就会又开始把钱放回银行户头。这对需钱若渴的银行和金融机构是好事。

4.各国预算压力将增加

各国政府前几年为刺激经济,纷纷大规模举债,资金成本一旦开始增加,债务负担也就加重。

5.欧美恐出现贸易战

美国一旦升息,美元也会升值,欧盟产品的出口竞争力随之提高,对美国贸易顺差也将扩大。到了一定程度,美国势必设法反击。

新闻来源:经济日报


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Re: FED
« Reply #225 on: March 13, 2017, 08:37:51 AM »



US interest rates Business leader
Trump is set to win the battle on interest rates, but US economy will pay the price
Donald Trump pushed the Federal Reserve to raise rates, but the policy could backfire on president’s economic plan
 Trump should be more cautious about the effects of an interest rate increase.
 Trump should be more cautious about the effects of an interest rate increase. Illustration: David Simonds/Observer
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Sunday 12 March 2017 07.00 GMT
Donald Trump spent much of his campaign for the White House attacking the Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen. Shouting at the camera in the first presidential debate, he even went as far as to accuse the head of the central bank of “being political”, spurring her to deny she was anything but impartial.

Trump’s anger was a lightning rod for American savers, who like savers across the developed world, have suffered eight years of ultra-low interest rates. A rate rise this week will be taken as another sign by commentators that the Fed is slowly capitulating to the new president’s tub-thumping campaign.

In December, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year, and only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis, up 0.25 percentage points to a band between 0.5% and 0.75%. Three further rates increase are predicted for 2017.

The latest jobs figures published on Friday, which bounced much higher than analysts expected, make it a racing certainty the first of these three will take place on Wednesday.

Yet the jobs figures are a legacy of the Obama presidency and nothing to do with Trump. Neither is the good news from the manufacturing sector or pretty much any other economic indicator, except the stock market, which could be said to have benefited from a significant Trump bounce.

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The president could decide to join the chorus of approval and even claim the rise is only the result of his pressure. But he should be cautious. An increase in the base rate, however small, will tighten the screw on younger voters and some of the poorest communities who voted for him and rely on credit to get by.

More importantly for his economic programme, higher interest rates in the US will act like a honeypot for foreign investors, who will transfer their funds to New York.

The bankers will adore being the prime recipients of all this fresh money and being able to charge higher interest rates, but sucking in foreign cash has a price and that is an expensive dollar and worsening trade balance.

Trump might want to think twice about supporting a policy that hits exports and pretty soon the profits of major corporations. It might undermine his call for the repatriation of factories to the rust-belt states if goods cost 10% or 20% more to export.

The dollar is already 20% higher against a basket of currencies than last year. If it goes up any further, corporations could restrict investment and freeze wages to compete.

Trump called for higher interest rates, but not lower wages or investment. But all the signs are that the president and his chief advisers will ignore these negative effects.

Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, like Trump, believes the administration is about to unleash an economic revolution that will spark rocketing growth without the inflationary pressures that spur interest rate rises. Mnuchin’s plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending, far from increasing inflation alongside growth and forcing the Fed to raise rates further, are supposed to raise productivity, allowing supply to stay in synch with rising demand. Prices would stay subdued and the Fed could raise rates almost without any effect on the economy, which – in a Trumpian world – could be given the tools to grow without concerning itself with the cost of borrowing.

But few believe a mix of deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure spending can have the desired effect, let alone work their magic in a fashion that leaves inflation subdued.

One of the many reasons is that the US has already enjoyed one of the longest periods of economic expansion on record. Trump’s spending plans are a last sugar rush for a period of growth that is past its sell-by date. A recession is looming – and a recession delayed is only worse. Let’s hope it’s not a full-blown crash.

Something to take shine off JD Sports prize
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Strange how myopic the business world can be. After an evening that kicked off with an inspirational speech from cobbler John Timpson about the power of treating staff well, the retail industry handed its highest accolade to JD Sports, a business recently heavily criticised for its treatment of warehouse workers.

JD has been an exceptional retailer in many ways: its stores and products are bright and exciting. Sales and profits have soared, and chairman Peter Cowgill has pulled the business back from what seemed like terminal decline. JD has said a Channel 4 documentary highlighting alleged poor practises at its warehouse did not reflect the working environment in an accurate or balanced way, but it did launch an investigation.

Naming JD Sports Retailer of the Year with no mention of these problems, even in the accompanying magazine interview with Cowgill, does neither the journal behind the awards, Retail Week, nor JD any favours. Was the company not asked about the matter, or did it refuse to touch on it?

The industry cannot blindfold itself to evidence of poor treatment of workers. JD’s higher-profile competitor Sports Direct may have knocked out many competitors with its “savvy” business skills, but it has brought shame on the industry with its treatment of warehouse workers in particular.

There are business as well as moral implications. Not every shopper will actively consider workers’ rights when they want a cheap pair of trainers. But poor corporate behaviour can only encourage the seeking of alternatives.

Sports Direct is now suffering financially, partly because major brands don’t want to be tarnished by its tacky discount-focused stores or links with “Victorian workhouse” conditions.

JD’s strength is partly built on its better image, which has helped it forge long-lasting and mutually beneficial relationships with brands. Maintaining that reputation should bring the issues at its warehouse into sharp focus.

Barclays needs new symbols
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Eight foot high and 20ft wide, the five acrylic blocks that have been a fixture in the characterless, cavernous foyer at Barclays for the past four years have gone. They were emblazoned with the words “respect, integrity, service, excellence and stewardship” and were a symbolic gesture by chief executive Antony Jenkins to show the bank was trying to clean up its reputation in the wake of the Libor crisis. It has taken 14 months for Jenkins’s successor, Jes Staley, to tear them down and install screens.

It was easy to mock the blocks – which were moved around the foyer to create new patterns – as a desperate attempt to look as if the bank was doing the right thing.

Staley was right to move them out. But in so doing, the American banker must ensure he does not create an impression that Barclays is back to its gung-ho days

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Re: FED
« Reply #226 on: March 16, 2017, 06:44:59 AM »



Fed raises rates at March meeting
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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 Bill Gross   Gross: Fed statement less hawkish than some had feared 
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For the second time in three months, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter point amid rising confidence that the economy is poised for more robust growth.

The move, widely anticipated by financial markets, takes the overnight funds rate to a target range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent and sets the Fed on a likely path of regular hikes ahead. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the sole "no" vote.

Despite a well-telegraphed move, news of the rate hike pushed government bond yields lower while major averages in the stock market moved higher.

"The market was bracing for a much more hawkish tone from the Fed. The early reaction looks to be one of relief, that the market's worst fears were averted," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

Some market participants had feared that the statement and accompanying economic projections Wednesday would point to a more hawkish Fed, with a faster pace of rate hikes ahead. However, the closely watched "dot plot" that shows each member's expectations for where rates will be in coming years changed little from the last meeting.

 Janet Yellen   Fed raises interest rates by one-quarter point 
4 Hours Ago | 01:19
With a higher rate already baked into the market, investors were looking for clues about just how aggressive the central bank will be down the road. The market currently expects the Fed to hike two more times this year, which was in line with the bank's projections from December 2016.

"They met expectations perfectly," said J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "They stayed to the script that Wall Street wanted to hear."

The Fed on Wednesday indicated that it still expects three moves. In its statement, the central bank noted that business investment has "firmed somewhat," a slight upgrade from the characterization of "soft" after the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting.

The market expects the next hike to come in June and another in December. Those probabilities increased a bit following Wednesday's decision.

More broadly, though, officials left expectations for economic growth little changed. The forecast for GDP gains in 2017 remains 2.1 percent, while 2018 was pushed up one-tenth to 2.1 percent. Longer-run growth estimates remained at 1.8 percent.

Inflation expectations remained in check as well, as the Federal Open Market Committee — the central bank's policy-setting group — sees a slight uptick in 2017 from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent but the longer-run tending toward 2 percent.

"It is important for the public to understand that we're getting closer to reaching our objectives," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said during a post-meeting news conference.

During her session with reporters, Yellen walked a balance between bracing the market for additional hikes but stressing that the Fed remains data-dependent and not interested in aggressive tightening.

"It was pretty balanced. There was something in this press conference for everyone," said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Hawks will welcome the acknowledgement ... that waiting too long to scale back the accommodation would require the Fed to raise rates more rapidly than it wanted to. At the same time, I think doves were welcoming that the fed funds rate doesn't have to rise too much to get to a neutral policy stance."

The statement also reaffirmed the previous meeting's language stating that risks to the FOMC forecasts are "roughly balanced."

The FOMC took the target rate to near-zero during the financial crisis and left it there until beginning a path toward a more normalized level in December 2015.

This week's hike comes amid hopes that more aggressive fiscal policy under President Donald Trump will allow the Fed to cede its economic stimulus role to Congress and the White House.

While hard economic data have been mixed, sentiment surveys are running high that the economy is poised to grow more than the lackluster post-crisis level. Businesses, consumers and professional investors all have indicated they believe better times are ahead.

According to reports released just before the Fed decision, home builder confidence is at a 10-year high, and manufacturing in New York is surging due to a multi-year high in orders and a decade-high in unfilled orders.

However, the confidence has been slow to transfer to actual growth.

The Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its view for first-quarter GDP to a 0.9 gain – coincidentally, the same level of fourth-quarter growth when the FOMC approved the December 2015 rate hike.

Yellen said Wednesday that GDP is a "noisy" indicator from quarter to quarter and believes the economy over the long run is running at about a 2 percent pace.

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Re: FED
« Reply #227 on: March 16, 2017, 06:45:58 AM »



Bill Gross: This could cause 'hell' to break loose in the global bond market
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While the Federal Reserve is gradually raising interest rates in the U.S., the actions by two other central banks are actually the most important thing to watch right now, bond guru Bill Gross told CNBC on Wednesday.

And it is something that could possibly wreak havoc on the bond market, he said.

That's because monetary policy in both Europe and Japan is causing international investors to buy U.S. Treasurys, he explained.

The European Central Bank is currently buying 80 billion euros ($85.7 billion) a month in bonds and Japan's 10-year is pinned at zero to 10 basis points, said Gross, who runs the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund.

"Once [ECB President Mario] Draghi begins to taper, that probably won't happen for a few months, but once he begins to taper and reduce that $80 billion a month, once that zero to 10 basis point cap is eliminated in Japan, then hell could break loose in terms of the bond market on a global basis," he told "Power Lunch."

Stocks and bonds were both up on Wednesday after the Fed announced it was raising interest rates by 0.25 point, bringing the overnight funds rate to a target rate of 0.75 percent to 1 percent.

Gross believes the markets are rallying because the Fed's statement was a little less hawkish than some had feared.

In fact, he thinks Fed Chair Janet Yellen is a dove at heart.

"She critically fears that markets, that asset prices are subject to downturns and in some cases significant downturns – not black swans, but maybe gray swans – and so she wants to move on a gradual basis and indicate that to the marketplace," he said.

And Gross doesn't expect too much change in tone when President Donald Trump begins to make appointments to the central bank.

"There's a tendency always for presidents to select dovish chairman and dovish policy members in order to perpetuate the economic cycle for the next election," he said. "We're going to have to watch the appointments but I would anticipate more doves than hawks as we move along in the next 12 months."

Yellen's term as chair expires at the end of January 2018.

— CNBC's Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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Re: FED
« Reply #228 on: March 16, 2017, 02:49:03 PM »



Fed is still way behind the curve after rate hike, says former governor
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 US interest rates should really be 3%: Robert Heller   US interest rates should be 3%: Robert Heller 
3 Hours Ago | 01:33
Interest rates in the United States should have hit normal levels of around 3 percent by now given that the Federal Reserve has achieved all of its targets, a former Fed governor said Thursday.

Speaking to CNBC's "Street Signs" after the U.S. central bank increased its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a target range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent, Robert Heller reiterated his opinion that the Fed should have moved quicker to guide rates higher.

Heller served on the Fed's board from 1986 to 1989 under former President Ronald Reagan.

"We have very low unemployment rate of 4.7 percent, we have inflation roughly at 2 percent, so rates should be normal now. And normal…would be at 3 percent. Instead, we are below 1 percent," he said.

The Fed's statement after its two-day policy meeting indicated that the central bank expects another two moves this year. At that pace, interest rates would not normalize until 2019, he noted.

Being behind the curve puts the Fed in a difficult position, Heller said. If President Donald Trump's policies prove beneficial to the U.S. economy, the central bank may have to increase rates at a quicker pace and risk encountering a "political problem."

"If they move a lot faster in response to the Trump program, Trump may well argue that Fed is ruining the progress that they're trying to make in having even further economic growth, faster economic growth. I think that's entirely possible," he said.

Even then, markets seemed to welcome the central bank's decision to raise rates and its dovish stance. Most Asian markets rallied after U.S. stocks closed higherWednesday.

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Re: FED
« Reply #229 on: April 06, 2017, 10:12:36 AM »



忧美联储今年或缩表
美股收市全线转跌
159点看 2017年4月6日
(纽约6日综合电)美联储议息纪要提到美股处于高位,同时预告今年应当缩减资产负债表规模,投资者入市态度转趋审慎,华尔街股市3大指数由高位回落,收市全线下跌。

道指早段最多升近200点,至20,887点,惟于议息纪要公布后由升转跌,收报20,648点,跌41点或0.2%;标指收报2352点,跌7点或0.31%;纳指一度升至5936点,创纪录新高,惟收报5864点,跌34点或0.58%。


美联储公布上月货币政策会议纪要,指大多数联储官员认为今年稍后时间调整资产负债表规模应当合宜,而缩减的资产范围应包括美国国债及按揭抵押贷款证券(MBS),未来的会议将继续进行讨论。

目前,美联储资产负债表规模达到4.5万亿美元,市场忧虑若缩减其规模,或使货币环境有所收紧。

10年期美国国债收益率一度升至2.38%,其后回落至2.334%。

新闻来源:东网


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Re: FED
« Reply #230 on: April 07, 2017, 06:36:59 AM »





财经商业视频时事国际地产图天下副刊地方体育娱乐言论市场情报
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 今年缩减购买资产美联储暗示退市引关注
今年缩减购买资产
美联储暗示退市引关注
372点看 2017年4月6日
 
美国股市不断走高也是金融形势变宽松的一个原因,可能会提振增长和通胀。

(纽约6日讯)根据美联储周三公布的会议纪要,美联储官员们在3月政策会议上同意,他们希望今年晚些时候开始缩减规模4.5兆美元(19.8兆令吉)的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券资产,但他们对一些重要的策略问题,仍未做出决定,比如削减资产的速度和规模。


3月14至15日会议纪要,帮助解答了最近几个月一直悬在市场上的一个问题。

该央行近年来一直明确表示要加息,但对于如何处置在2007至2009年经济衰退期间以及之后通过资产购买计划购买的规模可观的证券资产,并未作出承诺。资产购买计划旨在控制长期利率并提振经济增长。

会议纪要称,大部分与会者预期美联储将继续徐缓上调联邦基金利率,并认为今年晚些时候改变美联储的再投资政策可能是适宜的。

美联储的资产负债表战略仍在制定当中。美联储的经济学家已开始编写文件,可能有助于在尚未解决的无数细节问题上达成共识。

在3月时尚未解决的一个细节问题,是美联储应该慢慢逐渐取消其再投资政策,还是立即停止该政策。

根据会议纪要,官员们认为,慢慢退出对市场和经济的影响最小,但可能也难以清晰地沟通。

计划开始削减资产负债表之际,正值经济前景不断改善。

会议纪要显示,官员们认为经济增长展望面临的上行风险增加,如特朗普政府有可能采取财政扩张措施,而中国和欧洲等海外经济面临问题的地区的下行风险减少。

股价偏高带来风险

美联储官员同时指出,股市不断走高也是金融形势变宽松的一个原因,可能会提振增长和通胀。

但一些官员表示,股票价格似乎较标准估值偏高,若金融市场出现重大调整则会给经济预期带来下行风险。

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Re: FED
« Reply #231 on: April 08, 2017, 09:36:03 AM »



Saturday, 8 April 2017 | MYT 7:48 AM
Wall Street sees Fed balance sheet normalisation plan by year end
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/07/23/51/federal-reserve1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=ABD00397E8F3CFFBC6D6505EEB9FA65762F07297

 
NEW YORK: Wall Street's top banks see the Federal Reserve laying out by year end its plan to scale back reinvestments in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in order to begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Five of 15 primary dealers, or banks that do business directly with the U.S. central bank, expected the Fed to start paring reinvestments by year end, while the rest forecast the central bank would do so by the end of the second quarter of 2018.

The median view of 11 dealers was for the Fed to eventually shrink its balance sheet to $2.75 trillion.

As the U.S. central bank seems prepared to tackle unwinding its bond holdings, primary dealers see the Fed raising interest rates two more times by year end and three times in 2018.

Fed policymakers have turned their focus to paring the central bank's massive bond holdings, as shown in the minutes of their March policy meeting released on Wednesday.

Last month, the Fed raised rates by a quarter percentage point to 0.75 percent-1.00 percent amid signs of an improving U.S. economy and stock prices reaching record highs.

The central bank amassed its Treasuries and MBS during three rounds of large-scale purchases known as quantitative easing, which was aimed to lower long-term borrowing costs and combat the repercussions of a severe recession that was exacerbated by the global credit crisis more than eight years ago.

On Wednesday, the Fed held $2.46 trillion in Treasuries and $1.77 trillion in MBS.

While the Fed has longed to reduce those holdings, it has been reluctant to do so due to concerns that buying fewer bonds could cause a spike in mortgage rates and other long-term borrowing costs and hurt an economy that has been stuck at a 2 percent growth rate.

The Fed's willingness to embark on this change came after Donald Trump's surprise U.S. presidential victory in November, which unleashed hopes of tax cuts, looser regulations and infrastructure spending to bolster business investments and job growth.

That optimism has cooled in recent weeks after Trump and the Republican-controlled U.S. Congress failed to pass healthcare reform. This led investors to scale back expectations on tax cuts and infrastructure spending in 2017.

Federal fiscal stimuli, analysts say, would cushion tighter financial conditions from interest rate increases and fewer bond purchases from the Fed.

A disappointing March jobs report caused traders to briefly slash their bets on a June rate hike on Friday before comments from influential New York Fed chief William Dudley on rate increases and balance sheet normalization revived those bets.

"This report doesn't take away from the Fed's near-term outlook on the economy," said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo, a primary dealer in Charlotte, North Carolina.

In the latest Reuters poll, 13 of 17 dealers saw the Fed hiking rates to 1.00-1.25 percent by the end of the second quarter, compared with 11 of 17 dealers in a March 15 poll.

Eight of 17 dealers saw the Fed lifting rates to 1.25-1.50 percent by the end of the third quarter, while 16 of 17 expected that rate range to be reached by year end. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy , Markets

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/08/wall-street-sees-fed-balance-sheet-normalisation-plan-by-year-end/#tvjOQwJICiYsIqva.99

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Re: FED
« Reply #232 on: April 29, 2017, 04:26:47 PM »
Central banks show little sign of exiting

The more policymakers try to put investors off monetary policy shifts, the less they listen

By Roger Blitz
28 April 2017

Monetary policy has reached its limits and having done what they can, central bankers should pass the baton to politicians to deliver growth through fiscal stimulus.

Platitudes they may be, though that has not stopped investors believing in them.

And if central banks are meant to be leaving centre stage, they are doing so painfully slowly. The Federal Reserve has embarked on a path to rate normalisation but is the only one doing so, and even then with due caution.

The Bank of Japan is upbeat about growth, but governor Haruhiko Kuroda is at pains to maintain monetary stimulus and keen to dispel talk of an exit strategy. Confidence in the eurozone economy is at its highest in 10 years, and yet the European Central Bank remains steadfastly committed to easy monetary conditions.

Sweden’s Riksbank has gone so far as to extend government bond-buying when indicators from its booming economy suggest it should be doing the opposite.

Worries about geopolitical risk may sway central banks to remain supportive of markets, but such an argument looks a little thin.

Investors have not behaved in the way policymakers might have feared. This week they rallied behind the euro and European stocks amid growing expectation that the market-friendly Emmanuel Macron becomes France’s president on May 7.

Indeed, the equity market has become fairly phlegmatic about supposedly shock events, as was indicted by rallies in global stocks following Brexit and Donald Trump’s election victory.

“It just seems that geopolitical risks have stopped having the kind of effects investors think they should on financial prices,” says Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital.

That may be the fault of central bankers themselves. “Central banks’ unhealthy fixation on asset prices and their commitments to a permanent put on asset prices have created a situation whereby investors no longer look at valuation before they buy assets,” Mr Jen adds.

Nor are investors banking on politicians for growth. As the so-called Trump trade yields to Trump disappointment on the US president’s problems with implementing policy, investors are inclined to turn their gaze back to central banks to see how far and how fast reflation translates into policy normalisation.

The more policymakers try to put investors off the idea of monetary policy shifts, the less investors are listening. “The market now likely expects the BoJ’s next policy change to be tightening/normalisation, but Governor Kuroda’s stance suggests the likelihood of near-term normalisation remains low,” says Nomura strategy analyst Yujiro Goto.

Similarly, the euro’s post-French election rally looks extended, although the market is ready to give the currency another boost provided it detects an ECB signal on tapering.

No such signal came from ECB president Mario Draghi during Thursday’s press conference that followed the governing council’s expected decision to keep rates below zero. After an initial rally, the euro promptly fell as Mr Draghi highlighted no convincing upward trend for inflation.

Central banks might win more credibility with investors if they were not so fixated with inflation. They have been called “inflation nutters” by the likes of Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe and former BoE governor Mervyn King.

Inflation may be coming in below their targets, but that is not to say inflation does not occur in other areas, notably housing. “Looking at the bigger picture appears to be something that some central bankers are better at than others,” says GAM investment director Adrian Owens.

Global growth is above trend and inflation is close to target yet policymakers still insist on seeing “the whites of the eyes of inflation” before moving on rates, Mr Owens adds. “The problem is that by then it will be too late.”

But is being too late preferable to being too early? The fear for central banks, says Joe Prendergast, financial markets strategist at Credit Suisse, is that they taper too soon and suffer a sharp currency appreciation. Mr Draghi was reminded by journalists that the ECB raised rates too early in 2008 and 2011.

“Central banks are all going extremely slowly, driven by this fear,” says Mr Pendergast. “To paraphrase Ben Bernanke, they want to be tightening too late.”

Central banks’ $13 trillion problem ~ 27 Apr 2017
http://www.investopedia.com/news/central-banks-13-trillion-problem/
The Fed, the ECB and other major central banks are under pressure to reduce their balance sheets, but doing so poses a risk of provoking another taper tantrum of epic proportions. If major world banks in the U.S. Europe and Japan don't properly coordinate and execute the unwinding of some $13 trillion in assets built up since 2008, risk assets including stocks and mortgage-backed securities could sell off in a fire sale that would leave many investors – large and small – burned. In the worst-case scenario, the economic recovery, which is looking robust for the first time in a decade, might be at risk.



The battle of three centuries: The history of central banks ~ 27 Apr 2017
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21721354-contemporary-criticisms-central-banks-echo-debates-times-past-history-central
  • If central banks struggled to cope in the 1920s, they did even worse in the 1930s. Fixated on exchange rates and inflation, they allowed the money supply to contract sharply. Between 1929 and 1933, 11,000 of America’s 25,000 banks disappeared, taking with them customers’ deposits and a source of lending for farms and firms. The Fed also tightened policy prematurely in 1937, creating another recession.
  • During the second world war central banks resumed their role from the first: keeping interest rates low and ensuring that governments could borrow to finance military spending. After the war, it became clear that politicians had no desire to see monetary policy tighten again. The result in America was a running battle between presidents and Fed chairmen. Harry Truman pressed William McChesney Martin, who ran the Fed from 1951 to 1970, to keep rates low despite the inflationary consequences of the Korean war. Martin refused. After Truman left office in 1953, he passed Martin in the street and uttered just one word: “Traitor.”
  • Milton Friedman, a Chicago economist and Nobel laureate, led an intellectual shift in favour of free markets and controlling the growth of the money supply to keep inflation low. This “monetarist” approach was pursued by Paul Volcker, appointed to head the Fed in 1979. He raised interest rates so steeply that he prompted a recession and doomed Jimmy Carter’s presidential re-election bid in 1980. Farmers protested outside the Fed in Washington, DC; car dealers sent coffins containing the keys of unsold cars. But by the mid-1980s the inflationary spiral seemed to have been broken.


Central banks have bought a record $1 trillion in assets in 2017 ~ 25 Apr 2017
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-21/why-nothing-matters-central-banks-have-bought-record-1-trillion-assets-2017






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Re: FED
« Reply #233 on: May 02, 2017, 01:56:53 PM »



Fed set to leave interest rates unchanged, may hint at June hike
Reuters
/
Reuters

May 02, 2017 13:21 pm MYT

-A+A
WASHINGTON (May 2): The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week as it pauses to parse more economic data but may hint it is on track for an increase in June.

The central bank is scheduled to release its policy decision at 2pm EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is not due to hold a press conference.

Most policymakers have already made plain that in contrast to previous years, the Fed feels more confident in its forecast of two more rate increases this year.

"The bar to disrupting the Fed's plans is higher now than it was in previous years," said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Barclays in New York in a note to clients.

The Fed is in its first tightening cycle in more than a decade. A quarter percentage point increase last December was followed two meetings later by another hike in March.

Economists polled by Reuters see little chance of a move at this week's meeting. Investors next see an interest rate rise in June, according to Fed futures data compiled by the CME Group.

The rate-setting committee also is still waiting to see to what extent Trump administration policies on tax, spending and regulation will be able to get through Congress. A stimulus package could speed up the pace of hikes.

LIKELY TO DOWNPLAY WEAKNESS

Since the last meeting economic data has been mixed. The economy grew at a sluggish 0.7% annual pace in the first quarter as consumer spending almost stalled.

However, a surge in business investment and the fastest wage growth in a decade suggest activity will regain momentum as the year progresses.

Jobs growth also slowed sharply in March but the unemployment rate dropped to a near 10-year low of 4.5%.

Economists have largely attributed the weak first-quarter reading to perennial issues with the calculation of growth during the January-March period and the pullback in hiring in March to weather effects.

"There won't be a lot of changes to the policy statement," said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "I think they will downplay the soft first-quarter print and focus a little bit more on the labor market."

The Fed will have two more employment growth reports to hand before its next meeting.

Policymakers are also gearing up to announce sometime this year when and how the Fed will begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, according to minutes from the March meeting.

An announcement this week on a concrete timeline is not expected but there could be tweaks to language in the statement to show the matter is an increasing priority for the Fed.

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Re: FED
« Reply #234 on: May 04, 2017, 06:15:34 AM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Thursday, 4 May 2017 | MYT 2:29 AM
US Federal Reserve keeps key lending rate unchanged
 
WASHINGTON: The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday made no change in the benchmark interest rate and downplayed recent weak economic growth, a signal it likely will remain on course for gradual rate hikes.

The Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds lending rate in a range of 0.75%-1.0%, just as most analysts had expected. - AFP
 
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Re: FED
« Reply #235 on: May 14, 2017, 02:56:05 PM »



主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 消费信心零售走高 美6月升息几率增
消费信心零售走高
美6月升息几率增
80点看 2017年5月13日
(纽约13日讯)美国4月消费者物价指数(CPI)与零售销售两大“硬数据”同步回升,印证美联储主张第一季经济偏弱只是“过渡性”的说法。

不仅为第2季经济增长带来一个好的开始,也使美联储于6月14日再度升息的机率升高。


同于12日公布的密西根大学5月消费者信心指数初估值,上升97.7,优于4月的97,创四个月来高点。

其中对未来的预期指标从87上升到88.1,现况指标维持112.7,显示消费者对未来所得仍然乐观,也有助于支持今年经济稳健增长。

由于4月CPI、就业及零售销售销售等硬数据强劲,逐渐跟上消费者信心等“软指标”的气势,显示美联储6月14日会议时可能再升息0.25%。

4月通胀回升

4月整体CPI月增0.2%,符合市场预估,较3月的-0.3%明显回升,主因汽油及房租成本上升;与去年4月相比上升2.2%,升幅低于市场预估的2.3%,也低于3月的2.4%,但仍比过去10年来平均年升1.7%略高。汽油价格大涨1.2%。

核心CPI(扣除食品及能源)月增0.1%,比3月的-0.1%改善;去年4月上升1.9%,低于3月的2.0%,但也比过去10年来平均上升率1.9%略高。


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Re: FED
« Reply #236 on: May 26, 2017, 06:42:50 AM »



升息与经济掛鉤 FED 6月或出手
美国联储局的议息记录显示,如经济持续增长,很快適宜再加息。
財经 最后更新 2017年05月25日 19时52分
升息与经济掛鉤 FED 6月或出手

0分享
(纽约25日讯)美国联储局的议息记录显示,如经济持续增长,很快適宜再加息;又倾向今年开始缩减资產负债表,每3个月检討缩减规模。有分析认为,这种收紧货幣政策的速度,较外界预期温和。此外,委员將加息与经济反弹掛鉤,6月有可能加息。

联储局发佈5月初议息会议记录,重申当时议息声明的观点,虽然第1季数据显示,消费和投资等开支较官员预期差,但相信经济活动放缓只是暂时性,预期劳工市场会持续扩张,家庭收入和財富增长,未来数月消费信心和开支应该会回復增长,所以对整体经济前景,看法与3月时变化不大。

如果经济走势一如预期,大部份与会官员都认为,很快適宜再收紧货幣政策,强调缓慢渐进收紧政策是合適的做法。


部份官员更认为,如果失业率跌得较预期快,薪酬增幅亦加快,或国会通过財政政策进一步刺激经济,可能需要更快收紧政策。

但亦有少数官员担心,失业率下跌未能推高薪酬,令通胀持续放缓,收紧政策的步伐亦要放慢。

会议记录亦显示,几乎所有官员都同意,今年內开始缩减联储局4兆5000亿美元的资產负债表,亦支持局內职员提出的详细方案。即定出每月国债或按揭债券到期后,停止將收回的资金再投资的规模,最初可以设定於较低水平,然后每3个月考虑,是否扩大停止再投资的规模,令资產负债表逐步缩小。

但有部份官员提醒,未来有潜在危机。包括白宫主张放宽监管,可能导致金融风险升温。个別资產价格上升压力明显,例如部份商业房地產价格偏高,一旦估值回落,可能威胁金融稳定。

另外,分析员认为,会议记录暗示当局对加息的进程趋谨慎,在会议记录公佈后,芝加哥商品交易所的利率期货显示,市场预期6月13日至14日的议息会议,加息机会率仍高,达到83%,今年再加息两次的机会率只有46%,低於週二的50%。

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Re: FED
« Reply #237 on: June 01, 2017, 10:54:58 AM »



WORLDCORPORATE
POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
Fed's Williams says three rate hikes this year is his baseline view
Reuters
/
Reuters

June 01, 2017 10:20 am MYT
-A+A
SEOUL (June 1): San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John C. Williams said on Thursday he sees three interest rate increases for this year as his baseline scenario, but views four rate increases as also being appropriate if the US economy gets an unexpected boost.

"There is potential for upside occurrences in the economy. One big question mark is if there is big fiscal stimulus or other changes in the outlook that we see the economy is doing better than we thought," said Williams, who was speaking on the sidelines of a forum held by the Bank of Korea in Seoul.

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Re: FED
« Reply #238 on: June 12, 2017, 09:47:32 AM »




Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 12 June 2017
US Fed to raise interest rates despite sluggish economy
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Government data have shown clear signs of flagging job growth and a shrinking work force, with average job creation in the March-May period down 40% from the prior three months.
Government data have shown clear signs of flagging job growth and a shrinking work force, with average job creation in the March-May period down 40% from the prior three months.
 
WASHINGTON: For the second time this year, the US central bank appears poised to raise interest rates despite fresh signs the world’s largest economy is not in peak condition.

The recent soft numbers on the economy may have weakened the case for an increase in the benchmark lending rate by the Federal Reserve, which begins a two-day meeting from tomorrow to review monetary policy.

But the Fed is widely expected to stick to its guns, having built up expectations that it will tighten monetary policy at this meeting, although further rate hikes this year are now in doubt.

At the policy meeting last month, the central bank left rates unchanged at between 0.75% and 1%, and policymakers said they would wait to see whether evidence supported another rate hike.

But they also said first-quarter sluggishness was “likely to be transitory” and that a rate hike would likely be appropriate “soon.”

This has prompted criticism that the policymakers’ forecasts are flawed and they are not basing decisions on the data, as they pledged to do. “They seem to be more committed to just getting back to some version of normal than following the numbers,” Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to former vice-president Joe Biden, told AFP.

“It’s a little puzzling since chair Janet Yellen and others have said they’re going to be data-dependent.”

Since the May Fed meeting, the picture has not grown much brighter, especially in the key areas the central bank watches: employment and inflation.

Government data have shown clear signs of flagging job growth and a shrinking work force, with average job creation in the March-May period down 40% from the prior three months.

Inflation moved even further from the Fed’s 2% target in April, with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure at 1.7% for the latest 12 months. And, while first-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised upwards by a sharp 0.5 points to 1.2%, this is still no better than sluggish.

Given the weak data, the Fed’s persistent belief the sun will come out tomorrow, and inflation will stabilise at 2% in the medium term, has drawn sharp criticism from some quarters.

Economists J Bradford DeLong and Narayana Kocherlakota, a former president of the Minneapolis Fed known for advocating a cautious approach to raising rates, each accused the Fed in recent days of persistently overstating the strength of the US economy and inflation. – AFP

 

 

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy , Markets , Forex , US Federal Reserve , interest rates

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Re: FED
« Reply #239 on: June 15, 2017, 06:20:59 AM »



Int up 0.25

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Re: FED
« Reply #240 on: June 15, 2017, 06:57:06 AM »



ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
Fed hikes interest rates despite declining inflation, sets plan for balance sheet reduction
The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point rate hike Wednesday as expected.
The central bank last increased its benchmark rate in March.
It now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year.
The statement gave more detail on how it will unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference in Washington, March 15, 2017.   Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25% 
4 Hours Ago | 03:07
The Federal Reserve approved its second rate hike of 2017 even amid expectations that inflation is running well below the central bank's target.

In addition, the Fed provided more detail on how it will unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, or portfolio of bonds that includes Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities and government agency debt.

As financial markets had anticipated, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee increased its benchmark target a quarter point. The new range will be 1 percent to 1.25 percent for a rate that currently is 0.91 percent.

The level impacts most adjustable-rate and revolving debt like credit cards and home equity loans. The prime rate that banks use as a baseline for interest rates usually rises immediately after the Fed makes a move.

The central bank now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year. The post-meeting statement said inflation "has declined recently" even as household spending has "picked up in recent months," the latter an upgrade from the May statement that said spending had "rose only modestly." The statement also noted that inflation in the next 12 months "is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term" but to stabilize.

On top of the rate hike, the committee said it will begin the process this year of reducing its balance sheet, which it expanded by buying bonds and other securities in order to fight the housing crisis. Minutes from the May meeting indicated officials already had begun discussion about putting a set limit each month on the amount it would let run off as it conducts its policy of reinvesting proceeds. However, many Fed watchers did not think the FOMC would include language on the balance sheet in the statement, with Chair Janet Yellen more likely to address the issue at her post-meeting news conference.

"The combination of a rate hike and shrinking the balance sheet equates to a tightening monetary policy at a time when inflation is lower than expected," said Kathy Jones, senior fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

A statement on the program said the roll-off is targeted to start this year, though no specific date was provided.

 The reaction in market place was due to data: Santelli   The reaction in marketplace was due to data: Santelli 
3 Hours Ago | 04:56
"The committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization process this year, provided the economy evolves broadly as anticipated," the post-meeting statement said.

According to information released Wednesday, the roll-off cap level will start at $6 billion a month for the level of principal payment proceeds from Treasurys it will let run off without reinvesting. The remainder will be reinvested.

The Fed will increase that cap level at a pace of $6 billion each quarter over 12 months until the cap reaches $30 billion a month.

For agency and mortgage debt, the cap will be $4 billion a month initially, with quarterly increases of $4 billion until the level reaches $20 billion a month.

Once both targets are met, the total runoff per month will be $50 billion. Several Fed officials have said publicly they expect the runoff program to continue until the balance sheet declines to about $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion.

Fed officials voted to move forward with both moves despite some wobbly economic data lately indicating that growth won't reach the lofty 3 percent projections from the Trump White House. Retail sales data have indicated a still-struggling consumer and payrolls growth has slowed considerably over the past few months.

Still, the Fed actually increased its anticipation for GDP growth in 2017, bumping it up to 2.2 percent from the 2.1 forecast in March. Unemployment also is expected to decline more this year than anticipated, with the new forecast at 4.3 percent against the previous 4.5 percent.

The summary of economic projections points to a 1.6 percent headline rate for personal consumption expenditures, the central bank's preferred inflation indicator. That was cut sharply from the 1.9 percent forecast in March. Core inflation, which excludes food and tumbling energy prices, was cut from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent.

However, the forecast for 2018 and 2019 was unchanged at 2 percent for both levels.

"Near-term risks to economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely," the committee said.

"The primary story is they put in place to start tapering the balance sheet, without putting any target date around it," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "I don't know that it necessarily tells us anything other than we are going to continue to play this game and it's going to make the press conferences more important."

The so-called dot plot, which charts individual FOMC members' expectations for where the funds target will land, indicates officials overall are holding to their expectations. The funds rate projection for the end of 2017 remains 1.4 percent, which would indicate an additional hike before the end of the year. Fed funds futures market had been giving another move this year just a 35 percent chance, according to the CME.

Only one committee member dissented from the vote – Minnesota's Neel Kashkari, who has been a vocal dove in wanting to hold off on a hike until inflation picks up.

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Re: FED
« Reply #241 on: June 15, 2017, 07:06:53 AM »



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Fed heading for faster-than-expected normalisation, says Fitch
Surin Murugiah
/
theedgemarkets.com

June 15, 2017 06:14 am MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (June 15): Fitch Ratings said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike and comments yesterday reinforced its view that U.S. interest rates will normalise faster than financial markets expect.

The Fed on Wednesday raised the fed funds target rate for the third time in seven months, to 1.00%-1.25%.

In a statement on its website yesterday, Fitch said the Fed also announced that it expects to start phasing out full balance sheet reinvestment in 2017 and provided details on the modalities of doing so.

It said the rate increase and accompanying comments bolster our view that the fed funds rate is likely to normalise at 3.5% by 2020, and U.S. 10-year bond yields will rise back above 4%.

Fitch said these developments would mark a significant shift in the global interest rate environment.

“Fitch believes the Fed is increasingly comfortable with its normalisation process and less data-dependent following recent inflation readings that have been slightly lower than consensus expectations (although they remain close to target).

“The interest rate hike showed the Fed was prepared to look through weak first quarter consumption and GDP and underlines Fed concerns about unemployment falling too far below its equilibrium rate,” it said.

The rating agency said its fed funds rate forecasts also reflect scepticism regarding the idea that the equilibrium (or "natural") U.S. real interest rate has fallen close to zero.

“We think the fall in actual real rates is explained by the slowdown in potential GDP growth driven by demographics and weaker productivity growth, and by an elongated credit and monetary policy cycle.

“As this extended credit cycle comes to an end, Fitch believes the Fed will set rates according to its view of the U.S.'s long-term potential growth rate and its inflation target.

“This suggests the equilibrium nominal fed funds rate would be 3.5%-4% if real rates normalise in line with our estimate of U.S. potential growth at slightly below 2%,” it said.

Fitch said the impact on bond yields will also be determined by how far the term premium rises from the current historically low level partly caused by the Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.

“The Fed's approach to balance sheet normalisation sees reinvestment only to the extent that maturities exceed pre-set caps.

“The caps will initially be set at low levels but will rise to maximum levels of US$30 billion per month for Treasuries and US$20 billion per month for agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

“A return to a positive term premium of 50bp-100bp as the QE programme is unwound would see long-term U.S. bond yields normalise at 4%-5% given our estimates of the equilibrium Fed Funds rate,” it said.

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Re: FED
« Reply #242 on: June 15, 2017, 07:11:42 AM »




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Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Thursday, 15 June 2017 | MYT 6:42 AM
US Fed raises rates, unveils balance sheet cuts in sign of confidence
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Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen holds a news conference after the Fed released its monetary policy decisions in Washington, U.S., June 14, 2017. - Reuters
Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen holds a news conference after the Fed released its monetary policy decisions in Washington, U.S., June 14, 2017. - Reuters
 
WASHINGTON: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months and said it would begin cutting its holdings of bonds and other securities this year, signaling its confidence in a growing U.S. economy and strengthening job market.

In lifting its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent and forecasting one more hike this year, the Fed seemed to largely brush off a recent run of mixed economic data.

The U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee said the economy had continued to strengthen, job gains remained solid and indicated it viewed a recent softness in inflation as largely transitory.

The Fed also gave a first clear outline on its plan to reduce its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, most of which were purchased in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

It expects to begin the normalization of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. The plan, which would feature halting reinvestments of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities, did not specify the overall size of the reduction.

"What I can tell you is that we anticipate reducing reserve balances and our overall balance sheet to levels appreciably below those seen in recent years but larger than before the financial crisis," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference following the release of the Fed's policy statement.

She added that the balance sheet normalization could be put into effect "relatively soon."

The initial cap for the reduction of the Fed's Treasuries holdings would be set at $6 billion per month, increasing by $6 billion increments every three months over a 12-month period until it reached $30 billion per month.

For agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $4 billion per month initially, rising by $4 billion at quarterly intervals over a year until it reached $20 billion per month.

U.S. stocks edged lower and prices of U.S. Treasuries pared gains after the Fed's policy statement. The dollar <.DXY> was largely flat against a basket of currencies after reversing earlier losses, while the price of gold fell.

"The Fed announcing an update to their reinvestment principles leaves September open (for) the start of balance sheet runoff, and the fact that they haven't slowed their projected path of rate hikes suggest they can do both balance sheet and rate hikes at the same time," said Gennadiy Goldberg, interest rate strategist at TD Securities.

EYES ON INFLATION

The Fed has now raised rates four times as part of a normalization of monetary policy that began in December 2015. The central bank had pushed rates to near zero in response to the financial crisis.

Fed policymakers also released their latest set of quarterly economic forecasts, which showed only temporary concern about inflation and continued confidence about economic growth in the coming years.

They forecast U.S. economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2017, an increase from the previous projection in March. Inflation was expected to be at 1.7 percent by the end of this year, down from the 1.9 percent previously forecast.

A retreat in inflation over the past two months has caused jitters that the shortfall, if sustained, could alter the pace of future rate hikes. But the Fed maintained its forecast for three rate hikes next year.

The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation has retreated to 1.5 percent, from 1.8 percent earlier this year, and has run below the central bank's 2 percent target for more than five years.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Labor Department reported consumer prices unexpectedly fell in May, the second drop in three months.

Yellen indicated the Fed still remained confident inflation would rise to its target over the medium term, bolstered by what she described as a robust labor market that is continuing to strengthen.

The Fed's estimates for the unemployment rate by the end of this year moved down to 4.3 percent, the current level, and to 4.2 percent in 2018, indicating the Fed believes the labor market will continue to tighten.

The median estimate of the long-run neutral rate, which is seen as the level of monetary policy that neither boosts nor slows the economy, was unchanged at 3.0 percent.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented in Wednesday's decision. - Reuters
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Re: FED
« Reply #243 on: June 15, 2017, 10:30:50 AM »





MARKET INSIDER
Markets doubt future rate hikes, disagree with Fed's glass-half-full view of economy
The Federal Reserve raises rates a quarter point, but the bond market is still skeptical of its forecast for another hike.
The Fed said inflation will be low for now but expects it to stabilize at higher levels medium term.
Markets are looking at data more negatively than the Fed is, and one investment officer called the Fed unnecessarily "hawkish."
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 Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, June 14, 2017.   Record close Dow after Fed raises rates 
6 Hours Ago | 03:40
Doubting the Federal Reserve's ability to hike rates as forecast, markets are wrestling with the central bank over whether the economy reflects a glass half empty or half full.

The Fed hiked interest rates Wednesday by a quarter point and spelled out how it hopes to begin winding down its balance sheet this year. The Fed acknowledged low levels of inflation in the near term but expects inflation to stabilize in the medium term. The Fed also stuck to its forecast for three interest rate hikes this year, and it raised 2017 GDP to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent.

Krishna Memani, chief investment officer of OppenheimerFunds, said the Fed was unnecessarily "hawkish" in its statement and in its plan to move forward with the balance sheet reduction, which the market sees as the equivalent of a rate hike.

Stocks waffled after the Fed's 2 p.m. announcement and were trading at lower levels, as Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen held a briefing after the decision.

"What the markets are doing is basically ignoring the Fed, whatever they say. They are basically going off the data and they know eventually the Fed will get around to being sensitive of the data, that will be the driver," said Memani.

 Robert Shiller on the Fed   Robert Shiller on the Fed 
5 Hours Ago | 01:34
Treasury yields, which move opposite prices, had fallen sharply Wednesday after core consumer price index inflation came in weaker than forecast for a third month. The decline in year-over-year inflation to 1.7 percent spooked the market and raised more doubts over whether the Fed can hike rates as it forecasts. Retail sales data was also weak.

In the fed funds futures market, the expectations for another rate hike this year were at about 35 percent, down from 50 percent Tuesday but up from 25 percent just before the Fed's statement.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note remained near low levels of about 2.13 percent, but the 2-year yield, reflecting the Fed's rate hikes, rose after the Fed hiked rates to as high as 1.35 percent.

"The bond market is saying if they still tighten, it's going to be a problem," said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets.

The Fed also cited a strengthening consumer and business spending.

"I do wonder if there's a difference in views on the economy developing between the Fed and the markets," said Ed Keon of QMA.

"The Fed pointed to a somewhat strengthening consumer," Keon said. "They're just not looking at the same numbers that I'm looking at, which seem to be coming in a tad weaker. Comparing Q1 to Q2 may look like it's getting a little stronger, but I'm not sure I see consumption accelerating."

The Fed has been in a quandary with strong hiring and low unemployment but a batch of weak inflation data.

"The market's expectations about inflation may be proven wrong but they would rather be proven wrong than believing whatever the hell the Fed is saying," said Memani.

"The current scenario of low employment and no inflation is actually reasonably positive for growth and reasonably positive for the stock market," he said. "Stock markets are definitely fully priced, but if the economy continues to grow at a 2 percent pace and inflation remains low I think stocks can go up with the growth in nominal GDP."


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Re: FED
« Reply #244 on: June 27, 2017, 09:39:25 AM »




image: http://clips.thestar.com.my/Themes/TSOL/images/navigation/searchIcon.png

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Business News
Home > Business > Business News
Tuesday, 27 June 2017
US interest rates seen rising

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/06/27/00/08/fed-john-williams.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=34EF57C6BAAFEB7061FCAA48CB0850DE6F73A282
“Given the strong job growth we’ve been seeing in the United States, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down a bit further and remain a little above 4% through next year,” Williams(filepic) said.
“Given the strong job growth we’ve been seeing in the United States, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down a bit further and remain a little above 4% through next year,” Williams(filepic) said.
 
WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve policy maker John Williams made the case yesterday for further gradual increases in interest rates, saying he expects inflation to rise to the central bank’s 2% target next year as unemployment edges lower.

“Gradually raising interest rates to bring monetary policy back to normal helps us keep the economy growing at a rate that can be sustained for a longer time,” Williams said in remarks prepared for delivery at the University of Technology Sydney.

The comments by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggest that he’s lining up with Fed chair Janet Yellen, his predecessor at the bank, in an emerging debate on how to respond to an easing in inflation during the last few months.

While some Fed officials have argued for a pause in the rate-hiking campaign to wait for clearer signs that inflation is indeed headed higher, Yellen has played down the significance of recent weak price data and suggested that the Fed remains on course for higher rates.

Williams seemed to agree. “Some special transitory factors have been pulling inflation down,” he said. “But with some of these factors now waning, and with the economy doing well, I expect we’ll reach our 2% goal some time next year.”

Those special factors include a steep drop in the cost of mobile-phone services. That helped pull down the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge to 1.7% in April from 1.9% in March and 2.1% in February.

Williams also saw a danger in the Fed allowing the unemployment rate to fall too far.

“The very strong labour market actually carries with it the risk of the economy exceeding its safe speed limit and overheating, which could eventually undermine the sustainability of the expansion,” he said. At 4.3% in May, the US jobless rate was already below what Williams thinks is its long-run sustainable rate of 4.75%. And he sees it dropping some more.

“Given the strong job growth we’ve been seeing in the United States, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down a bit further and remain a little above 4% through next year,” Williams said.

The Fed earlier this month raised interest rates for the second time this year. Policy makers have penciled in one more rate increase for 2017 and three more for 2018, according to projections released after their June 13-14 meeting. Williams is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year but will vote in 2018.

Williams affirmed the Fed’s intention to begin trimming its US$4.5 trillion balance sheet this year, saying the central bank would start off “nice and easy.”

The aim will be to gradually reduce bond holdings in a widely telegraphed and predictable fashion, he said.

“I hope I’ll not be perpetuating an unfair stereotype about economists if I say that ‘boring’ is a virtue,” Williams said. “Indeed, my new mantra is, ‘Boring is the new exciting’.” — Bloomberg

 

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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/27/us-interest-rates-seen-rising/#K6lSWXURogZBDCDC.99

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Re: FED
« Reply #245 on: June 28, 2017, 06:30:42 AM »




 
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 经济学人:失业与通胀“双低”美联储坚持升息损信誉
经济学人:失业与通胀“双低”
美联储坚持升息损信誉
173点看 2017年6月27日
(华盛顿27日讯)美国经济出现失业率与通胀率“双低”的异常格局,美联储认为这仅是短期现象,通胀很快就会上升,但《经济学人》杂志指出,失业与通胀间的负相关已出现断链,美联储仍坚持升息,已使信誉备受质疑。

《经济日报》引述经济学人报道,美国失业率已降到4.3%,核心通胀率却仅1.5%,低于美联储所订的2%目标。美联储主席叶伦认为失业率已低于“中性”失业率,通胀很快就会上升。


因此美联储不仅6月升息1码,还预测今年将再升息1码。

失业率与通胀率双低,显示“菲利普曲线”可能失灵,但美联储与许多经济学家仍未放弃这项理论,理由有三。第一,失业与通胀间的关联只是受到暂时因素干扰,例如国际油价下跌,美国行动通讯费率下降等。

第二,失业率降到过低水平,可能使通胀率急升,而非逐渐上升。

第三,劳动市场虽已回升,但通胀预期仍低,使通胀率偏低。


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Re: FED
« Reply #246 on: June 28, 2017, 02:19:21 PM »




 
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 下一波金融海啸何时来? 美联储主席这么说……
下一波金融海啸何时来?
美联储主席这么说……
2292点看 2017年6月28日
 美联储主席叶伦认为,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。(路透社)
美联储主席叶伦认为,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。(路透社)

(伦敦28日综合电)美联储主席叶伦表示,美国银行体系目前已十分强健,主要得益于美联储的监管及高资本水平,相信“在我们有生之年”,不会再出现金融危机。

叶伦周二在伦敦与英国国家学术院院长斯特恩交流时表示,美联储已从金融危机学到教训,并为银行体系带来稳定。美国银行业者上周通过美联储第一轮压力测试,美联储透过这场测试观察银行业在失业率高达10%和商业不动产及公司债市场陷入混乱等严峻情势下的表现。

叶伦说:“我认为大家能看到今年各大银行的资金部位远比以前健全,所有业者都通过压力测试量化的部分。”

叶伦并大胆预测,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: FED
« Reply #247 on: June 28, 2017, 02:23:14 PM »




 
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 重申渐进加息策略 叶伦:资产价格有点“昂贵”
重申渐进加息策略
叶伦:资产价格有点“昂贵”
321点看 2017年6月28日
 
美联储主席叶伦。(网络图)

(伦敦28日讯)美联储主席叶伦并没有暗示她收紧货币政策的计划出现了变化,同时承认一些资产价格已经变得“昂贵”了。


她周二在伦敦表示:“我们已经非常清楚地表态,我们认为非常渐进地提高利率对于实现我们的目标是适当的。”

这是她自6月14日美联储加息以来的首次公开发言。叶伦表示,从一些指标来看,资产估值“看上去有点高,但对此并没有定论”。

她说:“如果你使用一些传统的指标(如本益比),则估值显得有点昂贵,但我不会试图对合适的估值水平发表评论,而这些比率应该取决于长期利率”。

美联储官员看法各异

叶伦还表示,她认为央行缩减4.5兆美元(约19.35兆令吉)资产负债表的计划,已经被金融市场所了解。

对于应如何看待失业率和通货膨胀就美国经济所发出的似乎相互矛盾的信号,美联储官员们一直存在不同看法。

美国5月份失业率下降至4.3%的16年低点。叶伦和她的一些同事呼吁继续缓慢收紧政策,因为他们预计劳动力市场紧张将最终导致更高的工资和整体价格水平。

然而,通货膨胀并没有对失业率的长期下降做出预期中的反应。这个谜在最近几个星期变得更加明显。

根据美国劳工部公布的数据,被广泛追踪的扣除食品和能源的基准通胀指标同比增幅在上月放缓至1.7% ,为连续第四个月下滑。


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Re: FED
« Reply #248 on: July 03, 2017, 08:05:21 PM »




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Expect one more US rate hike this year even if Ivanka Trump is leading the Fed, UBS economist says
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The Federal Reserve has locked itself into a strategy to raise rates one more time this year despite whoever is leading the central bank, a global economist at UBS Wealth Management said.

"I think there's a realization that policy-makers are accepting we've got more normal economic growth, we've got more normal inflation, and they're going to tighten policy and that's filtering through to the bond markets," Paul Donovan told CNBC on Monday.

 Expect long term quantitative policy tightening from the Fed   Expect long term quantitative policy tightening from the Fed 
6 Hours Ago | 03:50
Data released in the U.S. last Friday showed that inflation rose 1.4 percent in May from a year earlier, below the Fed's target rate of 2 percent. Nonetheless, Donovan from UBS believes that the Fed will increase rates at least one more time this year, "but more importantly I think we've got a long-term quantitative policy tightening program coming through."

"If you get the wrong person leading the Fed then there is a problem. So what I think the Fed is doing is locking itself into a long-term strategy and then even if we get Ivanka Trump as head of the Fed next year, they've got a long-term quantitative policy exit strategy, which would be really difficult to overturn," he said.

The current head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen is due to conclude her term in January of next year. During his campaign, President Donald Trump criticized Yellen for keeping rates low for political reasons and said he would likely replace her.

Don't listen to central banks; look at the real economy

Meantime, as central bank officials have shaken the markets with their comments over the past week, one chief executive told CNBC it's time to look at the real economy and pay less attention to their statements.

"I think I'd be watching less the central banks, because as we said not that much has changed, I'm watching more what's going on in the real economy. What's going on about earnings momentum, is that earnings momentum that we had in the first half of the year going to stay up or is it going to flatten?," Lothar Mentel, chief executive officer at Tatton Investment Management, told CNBC.

 Want to make money? Watch central banks   Want to make money? Watch central banks 
6 Hours Ago | 02:58
The euro spiked last week after traders interpreted remarks by the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi as an indication that it's getting ready to reduce monetary stimulus. The bank's vice-president, Vitor Constancio, shortly after told CNBC that Draghi had not signaled any change in policy.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, also sent sterling higher last week, after stating that continued growth in the U.K. economy would eventually lead to an increase in interest rates.

Mentel also told CNBC that it shouldn't be news for the markets that central banks will tighten their policies. "What's news for the markets is to have these hawkish tones when actually the economy globally isn't going quite…as synchronized as it was before," he said.

"That nervousness of the markets is exactly why we've gone 5 percent equity underweight because we see them just overreacting to any piece of news that comes out because they feel highly valued," he added.

Mentel is overweight on European equities and underweight on U.S. stocks.

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Silvia Amaro
Digital Reporter, CNBC.com

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Re: FED
« Reply #249 on: July 04, 2017, 06:34:20 AM »




PROWATCHLIST 


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Expect one more US rate hike this year even if Ivanka Trump is leading the Fed, UBS economist says
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 Expect long term quantitative policy tightening from the Fed   Expect long term quantitative policy tightening from the Fed 
17 Hours Ago | 03:50
The Federal Reserve has locked itself into a strategy to raise rates one more time this year despite whoever is leading the central bank, a global economist at UBS Wealth Management said.

"I think there's a realization that policy-makers are accepting we've got more normal economic growth, we've got more normal inflation, and they're going to tighten policy and that's filtering through to the bond markets," Paul Donovan told CNBC on Monday.

Data released in the U.S. last Friday showed that inflation rose 1.4 percent in May from a year earlier, below the Fed's target rate of 2 percent. Nonetheless, Donovan from UBS believes that the Fed will increase rates at least one more time this year, "but more importantly I think we've got a long-term quantitative policy tightening program coming through."

"If you get the wrong person leading the Fed then there is a problem. So what I think the Fed is doing is locking itself into a long-term strategy and then even if we get Ivanka Trump as head of the Fed next year, they've got a long-term quantitative policy exit strategy, which would be really difficult to overturn," he said.

The current head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen is due to conclude her term in January of next year. During his campaign, President Donald Trump criticized Yellen for keeping rates low for political reasons and said he would likely replace her.

Don't listen to central banks; look at the real economy

Meantime, as central bank officials have shaken the markets with their comments over the past week, one chief executive told CNBC it's time to look at the real economy and pay less attention to their statements.

"I think I'd be watching less the central banks, because as we said not that much has changed, I'm watching more what's going on in the real economy. What's going on about earnings momentum, is that earnings momentum that we had in the first half of the year going to stay up or is it going to flatten?," Lothar Mentel, chief executive officer at Tatton Investment Management, told CNBC.

 Want to make money? Watch central banks   Want to make money? Watch central banks 
17 Hours Ago | 02:58
The euro spiked last week after traders interpreted remarks by the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi as an indication that it's getting ready to reduce monetary stimulus. The bank's vice-president, Vitor Constancio, shortly after told CNBC that Draghi had not signaled any change in policy.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, also sent sterling higher last week, after stating that continued growth in the U.K. economy would eventually lead to an increase in interest rates.

Mentel also told CNBC that it shouldn't be news for the markets that central banks will tighten their policies. "What's news for the markets is to have these hawkish tones when actually the economy globally isn't going quite…as synchronized as it was before," he said.

"That nervousness of the markets is exactly why we've gone 5 percent equity underweight because we see them just overreacting to any piece of news that comes out because they feel highly valued," he added.

Mentel is overweight on European equities and underweight on U.S. stocks.

Follow CNBC International on Twitter and Facebook.


Silvia Amaro
Digital Reporter, CNBC.com