Author Topic: FED  (Read 13558 times)

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Re: FED
« Reply #250 on: September 13, 2017, 08:46:28 AM »




ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma give Fed more reasons to hold interest rates for the rest of 2017, experts say
The Fed's latest projection indicated one more rate hike in 2017, but that may not happen due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, experts told CNBC
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch slashed their third-quarter economic growth forecasts due to Hurricane Harvey
Earnings of insurance companies will be hit as the industry braces for losses projected around $60 billion, according to Wells Fargo Securities
Yen Nee Lee
Published 1:46 AM ET Mon, 11 Sept 2017  | Updated 7:30 AM ET Mon, 11 Sept 2017
CNBC.com
 Hold - wrong video - Will Irma delay the Fed's rate hike path?   Will Irma delay the Fed's rate hike path? 
11:40 PM ET Sun, 10 Sept 2017 | 02:17
Economic disruptions caused by a back-to-back pummeling from hurricanes in the United States may just seal the deal for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates intact for the rest of this year, experts told CNBC on Monday.

Hurricane Irma is still making its way up Florida's coast, but Goldman Sachs and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch have slashed their growth projections for the third quarter by 1 percentage point and 0.4 percentage point, respectively, due to Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas and Louisiana.

"I think it may be an excuse for the Fed to hold back again from raising interest rates. I think that will be a logical conclusion," Hugh Young, Aberdeen Standard Investments' Asia head, told CNBC's "Squawk Box," on Monday.

Fed officials, in their most recent projections, had indicated one more rate hike this year on top of the two they already approved in March and June. But weak inflation data have led to dovish statements from Fed speakers, leading market participants to believe the next hike won't happen until well into 2018.

New York Fed President William Dudley, in an interview with CNBC on Friday when Irma was poised to begin battering Florida, acknowledged that the two hurricanes could impact the timing of rate hikes. But he said rebuilding efforts following the storms will boost economic activity in the long run.

    Will Irma hurt the economy? 
10:49 PM ET Sun, 10 Sept 2017 | 02:33
Beyond the hurricanes, there are other factors standing in the way of a rate hike this year.

One factor is the uncertainty over who the next Fed chair will be, noted Frank Lavin, chief executive of business consultancy Export Now.

"Don't forget we've got several Fed vacancies now and that typically, historically, mitigates against Fed movements because everybody takes more of a wait-and-see attitude. They don't want to politicize the hearings of the next chair … so everybody tends to just quieten down a bit," he said on CNBC's "The Rundown" on Monday.

Insurance firms will take earnings hits

As market participants continue to ponder the timing of the Fed's next move, what's certain for now is insurance and reinsurance firms will take a hit to earnings due to the back-to-back hurricanes, the experts said.

"I think by and large, for the re-insurers and the primary insurance companies as well, this is going to be an earnings event. You'll see this ease into earnings. By and large, not everyone will report profits for the full year," said Elyse Greenspan, equity research analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday.

Greenspan projected the insurance industry to lose around $60 billion, with $40 billion from Irma and $20 billion from Harvey.

— CNBC's Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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Re: FED
« Reply #250 on: September 13, 2017, 08:46:28 AM »

Online king

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Re: FED
« Reply #251 on: September 21, 2017, 07:04:42 AM »




THE FED
ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
Fed approves October reversal of historic stimulus, leaves rates unchanged
U.S. central bank announced it will begin to roll off its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October.
The Fed did not raise its benchmark interest rate.
Officials projected one fewer rate hike than initially forecast by 2019.
The Fed also reduced its outlook for inflation, cutting its expectation from 1.7 percent this year to 1.5 percent, and from 2 percent to 1.9 percent in 2018.
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 4 Hours Ago  Updated 2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
 Fed leaves rates unchanged, set to reduce balance sheet in October   Fed leaves rates unchanged, set to reduce balance sheet in October 
4 Hours Ago | 02:19
The Federal Reserve took the first tentative steps Wednesday to unwind its history-making economic stimulus.

As markets expected, the U.S. central bank announced it will begin to roll off its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October. Most of those assets consist of the Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it acquired under a program known as quantitative easing.

At the same time, the Fed did not raise its benchmark interest rate from its current 1 percent to 1.25 percent target, but indicated that one more hike is likely this year. Officials also projected one fewer rate hike than initially forecast between now and 2019.

As the forecast stands with this week's revisions, there would be three increases in 2018 and two in 2019.

Stocks retreated slightly after the announcement.

The balance sheet reduction program merited just a brief mention near the end of the statement released after the two-day meeting. The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee stated only that the "balance sheet normalization program" as outlined in June will commence next month.

 Yellen: Expecting economy to expand at a moderate pace.   Yellen: Expecting economy to expand at a moderate pace. 
4 Hours Ago | 03:31
"The market would have liked to see a little more detail on some of this stuff," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "Although they've been very transparent, they do have a tendency to hold information. This is one more time we see that situation."

The Fed for the first time did provide a formal timetable for how the operation will take place. Instead of reinvesting all the proceeds of its massive bond portfolio, the Fed will allow $10 billion to roll off at first, increasing quarterly in $10 billion increments until the total hits $50 billion starting in October 2018.

The moves to hold the line on interest rates and reduce the balance sheet gained unanimous committee approval.

The balance sheet grew as the Fed began QE in late 2008, during the worst of the financial crisis and the Great Recession. The intent of the program at first was to keep mortgage rates low, but grew to a general attempt to lower short-term rates and provide liquidity to the economy. Stock market prices soared during the three QE stages, though economic growth otherwise was comparatively lackluster and coincided with the slowest recovery since the Great Depression.

While market participants widely expected the lack of an interest rate hike and the balance sheet roll-off, the details of where the Fed stood were considered a wild card.

In their quarterly economic projections, Federal Open Market Committee members now forecast economic growth to run a bit stronger than before. The committee's expectations back in June were for a 2.1 percent GDP gain this year, but that was pushed to 2.2 percent in the latest projections. The long-run outlook for GDP remained at 1.8 percent.

At the same time, the Fed reduced its outlook for inflation, cutting its expectation from 1.7 percent this year to 1.5 percent, and from 2 percent to 1.9 percent in 2018. In sum, that means the Fed now believes it won't reach its 2 percent target until 2019.

"Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low," the Fed said in a nod to slow wage growth. "Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."

The lack of inflation likely helped push the Fed to reduce the long-run target for its funds rate. While officials for years have been indicating that the rate would make its way to 3 percent, that forecast was reduced to 2.8 percent — effectively one fewer rate hike than originally indicated.

The forecasts were full of nuance that the market is watching closely.

The "dot plot," which provides the forecast of each member for the funds rate, shifted lower in the latest iteration. Twelve of the 16 FOMC members expect another rate hike this year. However, the forecasts for subsequent years were less aggressive. In fact, the longer-run projection of 2.8 percent is actually one-tenth below the 2.9 percent projection for 2019.

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Re: FED
« Reply #252 on: September 27, 2017, 07:13:20 AM »




Fed’s Yellen says gradual hikes should continue despite weak inflation
BANKING
Wednesday, 27 Sep 2017

12:55 AM MYT
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/09/26/16/54/dcx_doc6wrufjfp2s4w1qihjj2.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=46EBBF850544DF934678B0AFCED906686208A441


CLEVELAND: The Federal Reserve needs to continue gradual rate hikes despite broad uncertainty about the path of inflation, Fed chair Janet Yellen (pic) said on Tuesday in remarks that acknowledged the central bank’s struggles to forecast one of its key policy objectives.

It is possible, Yellen said, that the Fed may have “misspecified” its models for inflation, and ”misjudged” key facts like the underlying strength of the labour market and whether inflation expectations are as stable as they seem.

While there is not enough evidence of a major shift in inflation dynamics for the Fed to yet pull back from its plan to gradually raise rates, she said the central bank needed to remain open to that possibility. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy , US Federal Reserve


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/27/feds-yellen-says-gradual-hikes-should-continue-despite-weak-inflation/#hVgMeRwzQjIYytlu.99

Offline ongchef

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Re: FED
« Reply #253 on: September 27, 2017, 07:25:02 AM »
 :D :D :D......Trumpnomics why worry? ;)....OnG bullet train head era coming lar!!! 8) 8) :thumbsup: :cash: :cash: :cash:

Before October,black gold 3 more days to charge above USD60 also wanted to be materialised :clap: :clap: :clap: :cash: :cash: :cash:

ComeMoniesEver only 5 sen :shake: :shake:, are u still a relevant fire fighter ,no more a MR.CBai? ;)


 :D :D :D

Offline CurryLee

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Re: FED
« Reply #254 on: September 27, 2017, 09:04:57 AM »
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malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

Offline ongchef

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Re: FED
« Reply #255 on: September 27, 2017, 10:04:16 AM »
 ;)...........yes!,even berisai also can naik :),last call for those mau OnG-ing,ting ting and click click!!! :thumbsup: :clap: :clap: :clap: :cash: :cash: :cash: :cash: :cash:

Online king

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Re: FED
« Reply #256 on: September 27, 2017, 07:59:20 PM »




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耶伦:低通胀恐暂时性 美联储局应渐进加息
財经 最后更新 2017年09月27日 19时43分
耶伦:低通胀恐暂时性 美联储局应渐进加息

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(克里夫兰27日讯)美国联储局主席耶伦说在通胀不確定性升高的情况下,如今採取渐进式加息是最合適的政策立场。在联储局预测,今年还会再加息一次的情况下,进一步巩固了这一前景。

耶伦周二在克里夫兰讲话称,「在通胀回到2%之前一直保持货幣政策按兵不动將是不理智的。而且应该保持警惕,不要太过於渐进了。」

联储局官员们正监控美国的通胀进展,过去5年以来多数时间里,美国的通胀率都保持在联储局2%的目標水平下方。

儘管如此,上周公佈的联储局季度预测仍然显示,多数委员都预计今年还会再加息一次,2018年將加息3次。

继续阅读,请往下滑

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投资者目前认为联储局有70%的机率在12月份的会议上加息,这一比例要高於周一时的63%。

耶伦在讲话中描述了通胀前景所面临的3个方面的不確定性,这是她今年针对通胀风险所作的最为详细的一次讲话。

「我的同事和我可能误判了一些因素,包括劳动力市场强度,较长期通胀预期贴合央行通胀目標的程度,甚至还有驱动通胀的基本力量。」

耶伦称,有关通胀预期的调查结果和市场指標所反映的情况好坏不一。另一个风险,就是企业和消费者的行为有一些基础性的变化,导致物价低迷。

考虑到所有这些不確定性,耶伦称,决策者们必须要保持敏锐,隨时做好准备调整其利率假设。

Online king

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Re: FED
« Reply #257 on: November 02, 2017, 02:37:46 PM »




Will Powell or Taylor chair the Fed next? It doesn't really matter, says Barclays
Markets are considering the implications of having the Federal Reserve chaired by Jerome Powell or John Taylor
The selection probably "won't make that big of a difference" for markets, Barclays' Christian Keller said
Irrespective of attitude differences, the two Fed chair candidates are likely to converge on policy because of the existing economic realities, he said
Stacey Yuen
Published 36 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
    Is inflation targeting the right policy for the Fed now? 
4 Hours Ago | 01:36
As markets consider the implications of having the Federal Reserve chaired by Jerome "Jay" Powell or John Taylor — the two men widely considered to be top candidates for the role — one Barclays analyst has a message for investors.

The selection probably "won't make that big of a difference" for markets, Christian Keller, managing director and head of economics research at Barclays, told CNBC.

"Whoever it will be, they will still have to deal with the macro situation that they encouter," he said, adding that those key indicators include strong growth, high uncertainty about upcoming fiscal policies, and very low inflation.

President Donald Trump's announcement of his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, due later Thursday, is widely expected to move markets.

    John Taylor entry won't change overall Fed direction: analyst 
4 Hours Ago | 02:36
And a continuity-versus-change discussion has emerged in the days leading up to the big reveal.

Many see Powell as the frontrunner with Taylor just behind. Powell, a current Fed governor, is widely perceived to continue with current chair Janet Yellen's gradual approach to unwinding the central bank's balance sheet. But newcomer John Taylor, a Stanford economist, could stand for more hawkish policies, many say.

Irrespective of attitude differences, the two Fed chair candidates are likely to converge on policy because of the existing economic realities, according to Keller.

"None of them probably would want to have too fast interest rate increases that would lead to a dollar surge, which will backfire on growth and on inflation," he said.

There would, however, be some differences between having the two men as Fed chairs.

Taylor invented the "Taylor rule" in 1992, a strategic model that guides the way central banks' interest rates should shift according to economic conditions.

If Taylor joins the Fed committee, that would mean a greater emphasis on "taking a lot of the discretion out and being more formal" with the decision-making process, such as by defining variables and goals, said David Fernandez, Asia Pacific chief economist at Barclays.

Bringing that framework to the table in the current environment would imply continuing with the Fed's ongoing balance sheet unwind, Fernandez said, but added that normalization could be "reinforced" if someone like Taylor were on the Fed committee.

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Re: FED
« Reply #257 on: November 02, 2017, 02:37:46 PM »