Author Topic: CHINA  (Read 7163 times)

Offline CurryLee

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #100 on: January 22, 2017, 02:09:23 PM »
like tis means trade war started ady. the general is calling his soldiers. cyberwar.....cham..... :sweat: :sweat:
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #100 on: January 22, 2017, 02:09:23 PM »

Offline ikan besar

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #101 on: January 22, 2017, 02:27:08 PM »
like tis means trade war started ady. the general is calling his soldiers. cyberwar.....cham..... :sweat: :sweat:


Poo nia bor not China lah is Tong Sang
How long u been living here
Like this pun tak tahu, poo nia bor
U bising lagi hantar lu pegi Tong Sang
Nia putt ahhhhhh
sometimes win sometimes lose
biasa lah

Offline CurryLee

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #102 on: January 22, 2017, 02:38:36 PM »
tong sang ah suk...usa dowan buy china thing ady....cham...how ah? :sweat:
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

Offline CurryLee

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #103 on: January 22, 2017, 03:18:27 PM »
ikan cny phoon choi no pau yue....how ah? :'(

u belanja me go sangkelila eat lar...ok? :P
malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

Offline ikan besar

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #104 on: January 22, 2017, 08:29:14 PM »
ikan cny phoon choi no pau yue....how ah? :'(

u belanja me go sangkelila eat lar...ok? :P
Poo nia bor, don't know what sport car to buy
Curry what sport car is cheap and powerful
AE86 or Nissan fair lady
Aiyoh very pening
sometimes win sometimes lose
biasa lah

Offline CurryLee

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #105 on: January 22, 2017, 08:34:33 PM »
Cheap and powerful ah? Lambugini lar....sure!  :clap: :clap:

Poo nia bor, don't know what sport car to buy
Curry what sport car is cheap and powerful
AE86 or Nissan fair lady
Aiyoh very pening

malimalimaliongongongnotongchefbutishua thuatong

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #106 on: January 26, 2017, 05:08:47 PM »



China's shadow banking crusade risks bond market crash
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 26, 2017 : 3:27 PM MYT   
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SHANGHAI (Jan 26): China's campaign to cut high debt levels in its economy is aiming this year to shrink the US$3 trillion shadow banking sector, which could drain a critical source of income for the country's banks and of funding for its fragile bond market.

Shadow banking, a term for financial agents that perform bank-like activity, but are not regulated as banks, has boomed in China, the world's second-largest economy, as a way of circumventing government's tight controls on lending.

It has been a key driver of the breakneck growth in debt in the economy, which UBS says rose to 277% of GDP from 254% in 2016, and is now a target as Beijing tries to reduce that figure, before it destabilises the economy.

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But with banks' shadow banking business accounting for about a fifth of total outstanding loans, analysts fear that the unintended consequences of government efforts could trigger the fate it seeks to avoid.

"We see a policy-induced drastic deleveraging in shadow banking as a policy miscalculation that could trigger unexpected tail risks for the banking sector," said Liao Qiang, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

Investors' concerns stem from new rules this month that put lenders' wealth management products (WMPs), the biggest component of shadow banking, under the scrutiny of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) for the first time and into its calculations on prudence, capital adequacy and loan growth guidelines.

According to the latest official data, WMPs jumped 42% year-on-year to 26 trillion yuan (US$3.8 trillion) at the end of June, doubling in just two years.

WMPs are typically kept off banks' balance sheets, making it difficult for regulators to assess the stability of a banking sector reliant upon them for growth.

And just as in the global financial crisis of 2008, banks' interconnectedness amplifies the risks. Banks are increasingly buying into each other's WMPs, such that interbank WMPs hit 4 trillion yuan in June, a doubling from two years ago.

Banking regulators are also seeking new rules that will require lenders to set aside adequate capital to absorb potential losses from WMPs.

The PBOC and China Banking Regulatory Commission have yet to respond to requests for comment.

Vicious cycle

Banks lure investors to WMPs with the promise of much higher returns than on bank deposits, then channel the cash into high-yielding bonds or other forms of disguised lending to sectors such as property on which there are official lending limits.

The spectre of tighter monetary policy has already halted a three-year long rally in China bonds, and investors worry that the new WMP regulations could tip the bond market into crisis.

"Financial institutions, via WMPs, have invested a lot of money into credit products," said Gu Weiyong, chief investment officer at Ucom Investment Co, a bond-focused fund house in Shanghai, and he said they don't necessarily have sufficient capital to support those investments.

"It's very possible that another scandal could erupt, maybe in the first half," he said.

It is barely a month since Beijing tightened the rules on WMPs, as part of a broader policy thrust at preventing price bubbles and reducing industrial overcapacity.

Bond prices have since fallen, sales of WMPs have slowed and money market mutual funds, also used by WMPs, are losing cash.

At the end of June, 41% of China's 26 trillion yuan of WMPs was in bonds, with 16% in money market instruments.

Data from consultancy CNBenefit showed that Chinese banks sold 24,460 WMPs last quarter, compared with 25,980 the previous quarter, while money market funds shrank to 3.9 trillion yuan at end-November, the lowest in a year, from 4.2 trillion yuan in October, according to data from the Asset Management Association of China.

In addition, a year-end bond market rout wiped out all the gains this year in bond mutual funds, resulting in a combined loss of 21.6 billion yuan, according to the official Xinhua agency, raising the spectre of losses in bond-linked WMPs.

"The big issue for financial stability in China is a combination of very high asset prices and also extremely high leverage," said David Cui, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"The problem of this combination is that any drop in asset prices can quickly develop into a vicious selling circle," Cui said, with falling bond prices leading to WMP losses, then to lower WMP sales, and back to more pressure on bonds.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #107 on: February 03, 2017, 02:12:44 PM »



China raises short-term interest rates in fresh tightening signal
TheEdgeFri, Feb 03, 2017

SHANGHAI (Feb 3): China's central bank surprised financial markets on Friday by raising short-term interest rates on the first day back from a long holiday, in a further sign of a tightening policy bias as the economy shows signs of steadying.

While the increases were modest, they reinforced views that Chinese authorities are intent on both containing capital outflows and reining in risks to the financial system created by years of debt-fueled stimulus.

Higher interest rates could prod debt-laden firms into deleveraging, though at the risk of stunting growth.

"It appears to be an intent to control a real estate bubble. It could also be aimed at arresting the yuan's depreciation, although it is on the reverse repo they touched upon and the impact remains to be seen," said Naoto Saito, chief economic researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research In Tokyo.

"All in all, it comes across as a move to tweak interest rate levels to accompany a broader monetary policy shift."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised the interest rate on open market operation reverse repurchase agreements (repos) by 10 basis points, effective on Feb 3.

Two banking sources told Reuters it also raised the lending rates on its standing lending facility (SLF) short-term loans.

Analysts said the tightening of primarily money market rates suggested the PBOC wanted to retain policy flexibility as it balances the need to keep the economy from slowing again.

In late January, the PBOC raised rates on its medium-term loan facility (MLF) for the first time since it debuted the liquidity tool in 2014. It was the first time it has raised one of its policy interest rates since July 2011.

Analysts expect any further steps to be gradual as policymakers weigh their impact on economic growth, and believe the PBOC will be in no hurry to raise the policy lending rate for now. The one-year policy lending rate was last cut in October 2015 to 4.35%.

"China's economic recovery is still shaky, while the global economic situation is unstable, so raising open market rates is more appropriate than raising benchmark rates," said Li Huiyong, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.

"It's a flexible tool, which can be easily reversed if China's economy shows signs weakness again."

The world's second-largest economy grew 6.7% last year — roughly in the middle of the government's target range.

But heavy policy stimulus — evident in record lending from mostly state-owned banks and increased government spending — has fuelled worries among top leaders about the risks of high debt levels and an overheating housing market that could threaten financial stability if not addressed.

China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year, with an increasing share of new credit being used to pay debt servicing costs, UBS analysts said in a note.

SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY

The PBOC raised the seven-day open market operations rate to 2.35% from 2.25%.

Banking sources said the overnight rate for the SLF loan was raised to 3.1% from 2.75%, with rates on other SLF loans increased more modestly. The SLF rate acts as a de facto ceiling for interbank lending, analysts said.

Even as it raised borrowing costs, China's central bank moved to reassure markets about liquidity by injecting funds through the 7-day, 14-day and 28-day repos on Friday.

The PBOC drained a net 250 billion yuan last week, before Chinese markets closed for the long Lunar New Year break.

"It's not a good kick off of the Lunar New Year. It is a clear sign that the central bank has switched to tighten its monetary policy," said a trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

China's economy has seen a broad-based pickup in recent months, with fourth-quarter GDP beating expectations due largely to a strong housing market and higher government spending on infrastructure projects.

At the same time, however, capital flight from the tightly managed economy has been strong, fueled by expectations that the yuan currency will depreciate further after sliding to more than eight-year lows against the dollar.

Bearish views on the yuan have persisted despite a series of tightening measures in recent months aimed at making it more difficult for Chinese individuals and corporations to send money abroad.

China's currency reserves fell by a tenth last year and, at US$3.011 trillion, are close to falling below psychologically significant levels.

The yuan down 7% last year, its biggest annual loss against the dollar since 1994. China's outbound investment jumped 44% last year to US$170.1 billion, according to the Commerce Ministry.

"The signal is very clear," said Zhou Hao, senior Asian emerging market economist at Commerzbank in Singapore.

Hao said this time the tightening was more targeted compared with China's previous tightening cycle that ended in 2013.

"Inflation at that time was rising very rapidly and at this time inflation is not really an issue. Secondly the yuan was under pressure to appreciate at that time."

"Right now it's totally different. If you have capital outflows, that's already tightening. And then you tighten further, which is a double-whammy.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #108 on: February 06, 2017, 06:42:35 AM »



名家  2017年02月05日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
中国开国,美国锁国?

12
过去锁国的中国,现在其国家主席习近平,在瑞士达沃斯召开的世界经济论坛年会上,展现捍卫自由贸易的姿態,並邀请全球各国共享中国推广的「一带一路」;反之,过去对于自由贸易推广不遗余力的美国,在国內经济低迷下,民粹主义、反全球化和贸易保护主义逐渐抬头。

回顾歷史,美国本不是一个开放的国家。它早期实行的是贸易保护和自我孤立的「门罗主义」,开放是第一次世界大战后才出现。不过1929年爆发大萧条后又走回贸易锁国,二战后才再度开放至今。

而中国在歷史上也从来不是一个锁国的国家,锁国政策是从明朝朱元璋时期的禁海令开始的。虽然其子朱棣打造出强大的远航船队,但是郑和下西洋的事业並没带来足够的经济效益,最后还是从歷史舞台退下。

清朝基本上延续明制。乾隆时期的1792年,英国政府任命马戛尔尼为正使,以贺乾隆皇帝八十大寿为名出使中国。对于做惯几千年天朝大国的中国来说,只是视英国使节来朝贡。当马戛尔尼代表英国政府向乾隆提出七个要求,希望中国给予英国通商和传教。乾隆才知道对方此行並非专为贺寿,说:「天朝物產丰盈,无所不有,原不藉外夷货物以通有无」为由,拒绝通商。


受战爭洗礼的中国

虽然英国使节用心选购了600箱代表英国生產文明的天文、地理仪器、图书、毯毡、军用品、车辆、船式等物。但是清廷工匠、官员认为天球、地球之类的与清宫所陈列者並无差別,装饰反而不如,玻璃掛灯也与圆明园中者无异。而需要专人装配的钟錶,其方法「並无奇巧」,和北京城內钟錶匠的作法相同。乾隆在看到礼物之后,觉得英使不过是夸大其词,因为「所称奇异之物,只觉视等平常耳」。

虽然马戛尔尼来华时,中欧技术生產力並无明显差距,但1800年后,英国的工业革命出现,西方技术生產力迅速猛增,短短40年就拋离中国。最后在1839年-1842年的鸦片战爭中,用炮舰打开中国的锁国门户。

只是满清王朝过于顢頇,不能顺应国际大势更改国政,往往是被打一下,才开放一点。在1860年,遭受英法联军火烧圆明园后,才不得不发动自强的「洋务运动」。

不过,在腐败昏瞶的满清政权下,「洋务运动」无法放开手开展,就算贵为总理的洋务派领袖李鸿章,也都是在保守派掣肘下事倍功半。保守派和清流的努力终于修成恶果,1894年的「甲午战爭」中,中国竟然败给自己过去看不起的蕞薾小国日本,赔银二万万三千两白银。「甲午战爭」,宣告了「洋务运动」的失败,曝露中国外强中干真相,也打断中国现代化进程,隨后引发列强竞相爭夺逼迫中国签订一个个不平等条约,抢夺中国大饼,並险些让中国在八国联军侵略下险遭瓜分。

顢頇的满清虽然在1911年的武昌起义后被推翻,但是中国仍处于5000年歷史所未有的大变局中。在旧体制崩溃,新体制未生的时候,袁世凯、张勋復辟,军阀割据如春秋战国时代,北洋和南京政权对峙如南北朝,北方有苏联和东方日本的威胁。

亡国灭种的危机在1931年918事变发展到顶点,第二次中日战爭(1931-1945年)爆发,中国付出死伤2千万至3千万人的代价,贏得百年来第一次对外战爭的胜利,这个胜利也是中国復兴契机。之后再经过包括国共內战等一连串战爭洗礼,一个拥有现代国家思维的新中国在1949年诞生。

新中国的领导人毛泽东,虽然想维持中美良好关係。但是在冷战反共思维下,美国对中国的善意不予回应。中国又要发展不同于欧美的政经模式,所以被排除欧美建立的国际体系外而「被锁国」。而中国在尝试发展中误入歧途,受到大跃进和文革折腾。直到邓小平復出,在1978年改革开放,一个东方古国才再度展现生机。

中国的改革开放让自己逐步融入欧美主宰的国际经济潮流之中。因为中国採取摸著石头过河的稳健开放方式,所以没有犯上俄罗斯因为盲目採取「新自由主义」的全面开放,造成国家资源被少数利益集团以超低成本掠夺,人民反而变得更穷困的错误。

为了获得更强的国际竞爭力,中国没有盲目一味给予產业保护,经常以適当开放「倒逼產业改革」,作为推进自家產业为生存故而不得不国际化,提升自己竞爭力。

在融入国际经济的同时,也让中国和西方国家建立紧密的经济关係,这使得就算和西方国家產生爭执时,西方国家也不敢像对俄罗斯一样,轻率对中国施行经济制裁,以免两败俱伤。

搞不起锁国政策

经过30多年的努力,中国取得震惊世界的成就,成为仅次美国的第二大经济体。从屈从追隨西方制定的国际规则到可以自己制定规则。

当美国因为贸易保护主义抬头,其遏制中国的「重返亚洲」包含的抑中经济战略《跨太平洋伙伴协议》(TPP)胎死腹中。世界对经贸发展逐渐转入中国主导的区域经济整合计划的《区域全面经济伙伴协定》(RCEP),以及设立亚投行(AIIB),打通全球经贸任督二脉的「一带一路」之21世纪的丝绸之路。

现在的中国,已经不是过去自以为是「天朝物產丰盈,无所不有」的国家了。它清楚认识自己並不是地大物博的国家,因为中国只佔全球自然资源的7%,但是人口却佔全球的20%。真正地大物博的是美国,所以美国立国以来可以有本钱搞锁国的「门罗主义」,中国却搞不起。所以中国必须和世界不断深化经贸合作。

自2008年金融危机后,西方国家贸易保护主义势力渐兴,中国继续推行全球化贸易更显得重要。中国预计未来5年將进口8兆美元(35.6兆令吉)的商品和服务,对外投资7500亿美元(3兆3375亿令吉),所以没有一个国家敢铁下心和中国搞经济隔离,除了要走台独又不敢宣佈独立,只会自我萎缩的台湾绿色政权例外。

如果美国在特朗普主政下,真走向贸易保护主义,中国会顺势填补美国离开后的真空区域,未来国际舞台就是中国的天下

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #109 on: February 26, 2017, 07:40:01 AM »



东方文荟  2017年02月25日 | 作者:林金树 | 专栏:观念平台
金正恩协助美国围堵中国

朝鲜最高领袖金正恩同父异母哥哥金正男在吉隆坡遇害,一些媒体报导中,指幕后主使人几乎肯定是金正恩本人。因为他要把可能对其地位造成任何威胁的潜在政治对手进行「人身消灭」,才能感觉到政权稳固。

这 场高明的谋杀案,既反映出朝鲜特务机构的无孔不入和超强的应变能力,也反映出朝鲜这位娃娃领导人的冷酷无情,对亲人下毒手更是绝不手软。他在2013年突 然下令处决他的姑丈、朝鲜原第二號人物张承泽。据说过后因受株连而被处死的人超过1万人。他的家族成员据称有大约140人遇害。

美国志在中国

朝鲜是全世界独一无二的共產党世袭王朝,从1948年迄今延续了三代接近70年。三代领导人分別是金日成、金正日和金正恩。金正恩在父亲于2011年去世后「继位」,他当时还不到30岁。


这位年轻的暴君掌握了核子武器以及用来发射核子武器的飞弹,而且时不时向全世界挑战,试炸核子武器和试射飞弹,危害东北亚以及世界和平。

他虽然年纪轻轻,却颇有心机,懂得充分利用朝鲜的地缘政治优势。他声称,搞核子武器是要对抗美国,作为迫使美国从韩国撤军的压力。但这是表面的理由,因为朝鲜的核子武器及其运载火箭根本射不到美国本土,那里会对美国构成威胁?他是利用其核子武器来讹诈中国。

他 的做法的客观效果,是协助美国在军事上围堵中国,因为美国歷任总统都在军事上部署围堵中国,以不让中国海、空军衝破第一岛链为目的。因此美国在日本和韩国 广设军事基地,部署大军,以及部署军舰、军机和各种新式武器和飞弹,说是要应付朝鲜的核子武器威胁,其实是「项庄舞剑,意在沛公」,真正目的是针对中国。

屡受朝鲜拖累

例如,美国已经在日本部署覆盖面很大的「萨德」防导弹系统。最近,美国强迫韩国部署萨德系统,其侦查范围可以把部署在北京的中国军事设施包括在內。中国对此提出反对,使到中、韩关係恶化。不过,如果特朗普延续奥巴马的政策的话,美国在韩国境內部署萨德系统將势在必行。

从 歷史上观察,中国有朝鲜这个近邻是大不幸,因为为了维护朝鲜,为中国本身带来重大灾难。远的不说,在清朝末年,为了协助朝鲜抵抗明治维新之后军力强大的日 本对朝鲜展开的侵略,在1894年发生了中、日甲午战爭。结果中国战败,在1895年派李鸿章到日本签订丧权辱国的《马关条约》,承认朝鲜独立,中国割让 台湾、澎湖及其附属岛屿给日本,更对日本赔偿2.3亿两白银的战爭赔款。甲午战爭是造成清朝灭亡的一个重要因素。

二战后中国收回台、澎的主权。但日本「皇民化」统治,是使台湾人滋生台独思想的主要原因。而美国把原属台湾省的钓鱼台岛划归日本,成为中、日发生主权爭议的导火线,反映出美国用心之狠毒。当然,蒋介石政府迁台,是两岸迄今无法统一的原因。

日本对朝鲜半岛进行50年的殖民地统治(1895-1945)。二战后期,苏联和美国沿北纬38度分別佔领朝鲜半岛北部和南部,並建立共產主义的朝鲜和资本主义的韩国,双方迄今仍然严重对抗。

中国在1949年由共產党统治之后,仍然受到朝鲜拖累。事缘金日成在史达林唆使下,在1950年挥军南下,酿成韩战。美国军事介入。中国为了「援朝」,派「人民志愿军」抗美,到1953年才停战。韩战造成中、美关係恶化,也成为美国长期围堵中国的重要因素。

从金日成到金正恩三代,朝鲜都是依靠中国的援助。然而,平壤政权一直为北京带来不少麻烦。金正恩对国际秩序的挑衅,尤其是不断地试验核子武器,使到中国不胜其扰,终于根据联合国安理会的议决案对朝鲜进行经济制裁,但收效甚微。对金正恩的胡作非为,北京似乎也无可奈何

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #110 on: February 27, 2017, 06:25:42 AM »



大摩:未来3年增速放缓
中国债务危机风险低
85点看 2017年2月26日
(上海24日讯)国际投行摩根史丹利中国首席经济学家刑自强指出,虽然外界对中国债务规模及坏帐风险仍存在担忧,但他认为中国发生债务危机的风险很低,且随着中国名义经济增速加快,未来两三年中国债务率增速将明显放缓。

中国的债务率(债务与国内生产总值的比值)已从2007年的147%上升到2016年的279%。


他预计,未来两年,虽然中国债务率仍会继续攀升,但每年增量将逐步下滑,预计2017年和2018年分别上升12个百分点和9个百分点,而2016年为21个百分点。

他说:“如果中国愿意承受更低的增长,愿意收紧货币政策,通过监管来堵住套利的空间,控制杠杆,有望在未来两三年进一步上升的速度流量会得到控制,这有助于减缓大家对未来坏账债务问题发生风险的担心。”

外债比例不高

大摩预计,中国今明2年的实质GDP增速分别为6.4%和6.2%,而去年中国GDP增速为6.7%;预计今年名义GDP增速将从去年的8%上升至9.4%。

他认为,尽管中国过往债务可能有一些坏账的风险,尤其是一些产能过剩的制造业,但国内储蓄率相当高,而且基本是内债,外债比例不高。

他还补充,中国与希腊等海外发生债务危机的国家,有非常大的不同,给中国应对各种问题,包括潜在坏账、资产质量提供了很大的缓冲的空间。

其次,中国整体对外投资的净头寸,包括外汇储备都比较高。外汇储备哪怕降到3兆美元(约13.32兆令吉)以下,离合理最低水平还有很大距离。

这些因素使得中国央行有能力管理流通冲击,而流通危机是很多其他经济体爆发所谓债务危机的很大原因,新兴市场没有国内高储蓄率、外汇储备、海外净头寸,一旦出现一点点坏账问题出现流动性急剧紧张。

第三,中国政府拥有大量资产,例如国有股权和土地储备。

此外,摩根史丹利上周发布《中国经济蓝皮书》,展望未来十年的中国经济发展趋势。

打破中等收入陷井

预计未来十年,中国将打破中等收入陷井,经济逐步过渡到具备高附加值的制造业和服务业,至2027年中国人均GDP将达到1万2900美元(约5.72万令吉),从而成为高收入国家。

在过去三十年里,人口超过2000万的国家中,只有韩国和波兰成功突破中等收入陷井,成为高收入国家。


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #111 on: February 27, 2017, 06:33:29 AM »



Sunday, 26 February 2017 | MYT 9:10 AM
Wary of Trump unpredictability, China ramps up naval abilities

BY BEN BLANCHARDandMICHAEL MARTINA

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/26/01/10/20170226t010749z_2_lynxmped1p00p_rtroptp_4_chinadefencenavy.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=029BD7AEC0EE660E38EA6A097B550AC51FFA7056


 
BEIJING (Reuters) - The PLA Navy is likely to secure significant new funding in China's upcoming defence budget as Beijing seeks to check U.S. dominance of the high seas and step up its own projection of power around the globe.

China's navy has been taking an increasingly prominent role in recent months, with a rising star admiral taking command, its first aircraft carrier sailing around self-ruled Taiwan and new Chinese warships popping up in far-flung places.

Now, with President Donald Trump promising a U.S. shipbuilding spree and unnerving Beijing with his unpredictable approach on hot button issues including Taiwan and the South and East China Seas, China is pushing to narrow the gap with the U.S. Navy.

"It's opportunity in crisis," said a Beijing-based Asian diplomat, of China's recent naval moves. "China fears Trump will turn on them eventually as he's so unpredictable and it's getting ready."

Beijing does not give a breakdown for how much it spends on the navy, and the overall official defence spending figures it gives - 954.35 billion yuan ($139 billion) for 2016 - likely understates its investment, according to diplomats.

China unveils the defence budget for this year at next month's annual meeting of parliament, a closely watched figure around the region and in Washington, for clues to China's intentions.

China surprised last year with its lowest increase in six years, 7.6 percent, the first single-digit rise since 2010, following a nearly unbroken two-decade run of double-digit jumps.

"Certainly, the PLA Navy has really been the beneficiary of a lot of this new spending in the past 15 years," said Richard Bitzinger, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"We don't how much they spend on the navy, but simply extrapolating from the quantity and the quality of things that are coming out of their shipyards, it's pretty amazing."

To view a graphic on the military balance in the Asia Pacific, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2kY3K8B

RAPID DEVELOPMENT

The Chinese navy, once generally limited to coastal operations, has developed rapidly under President Xi Jinping's ambitious military modernisation.

It commissioned 18 ships in 2016, including missile destroyers, corvettes and guided missile frigates, according to state media.

Barely a week goes by without an announcement of some new piece of equipment, including an electronic reconnaissance ship put into service in January.

Still, the PLA Navy significantly lags the United States, which operates 10 aircraft carriers to China's one, the Soviet-era Liaoning.

Xu Guangyu, a retired major general in the People's Liberation Army now senior adviser to the government-run China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, said China was keenly aware of the U.S. ability to project power at sea.

"It's like a marathon and we're falling behind. We need to step on the gas," Xu said.

Trump has vowed to increase the U.S. Navy to 350 ships from the current 290 as part of "one of the "greatest military buildups in American history", a move aides say is needed to counter China's rise as a military power.

"We’ve known this is a 15-20 year project and every year they get closer to being a blue-water navy with global aspirations," said a U.S. administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

"What you have seen this last year and what I think you will see with the new budget is that they are moving ahead with the short-term goal of being the premier naval force in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, with the mid-term goal, of extending all the way to the Indian Ocean."

In January, China appointed new navy chief, Shen Jinlong, to lead that push.

Shen has enjoyed a meteoric rise and is close to Xi, diplomatic and leadership sources say.

"The navy has gotten very lucky with Shen," said a Chinese official close to the military, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Now they know for certain their support goes all the way to the top."

Recent PLA Navy missions have included visits to Gulf states, where the United States has traditionally protected sea lanes, and to the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, in what the state-run website StrongChina called Shen's "first show of force against the United States, Japan and Taiwan".

Last month, a Chinese submarine docked at a port in Malaysia's Sabah state, which lies on the South China Sea, only the second confirmed visit of a Chinese submarine to a foreign port, according to state media.

The submarine had come from supporting anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, where China has been learning valuable lessons about overseas naval operations since 2008.

Chinese warships have also been calling at ports in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, unnerving regional rival India.

"It's power projection," said a Beijing-based Western diplomat, of China's navy.

($1 = 6.8640 Chinese yuan)

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom and Adrees Ali in WASHINGTON; Editing by Lincoln Feast)


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/02/26/wary-of-trump-unpredictability-china-ramps-up-naval-abilities/#7yJj4RMRQKvB6yOe.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #112 on: March 05, 2017, 12:55:39 PM »



Sunday, 5 March 2017 | MYT 8:17 AM
China aims for around 6.5% economic growth in 2017
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2015/11/15/08/41/premier-li-keqiang.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=12FDB0B55085E580D2C7196D53A2477695AD75EF
Premier Li Keqiang
Premier Li Keqiang
 
BEIJING: China is aiming to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent in 2017, Premier Li Keqiang said in remarks prepared for delivery at the opening of the annual meeting of parliament on Sunday.

That compares with a 2016 economic growth target of 6.5 to 7 percent.

Top leaders at the National People's Congress are tolerating slightly slower economic growth this year to give them more room to push through some painful reforms to deal with a rapid build-up in debt.

A lending binge and increased government spending last year have fuelled worries about high debt levels and an overheating housing market.

China's gross domestic product grew 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest in 26 years.

China also set a budget deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product for 2017, the country's finance ministry said in its work plan unveiled at the meeting, in line with the target set a year earlier.

It set a fiscal deficit target for the year of 2.38 trillion yuan ($345.16 billion).

Last year, Beijing set a 2016 budget deficit target of 3 percent of GDP. Sources told Reuters in January that policymakers had in December set a 3 percent deficit target for 2017. - Reuters

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/05/china-aims-for-around-6pt5pct-economic-growth-in-2017/#gk2pwiegKgeLYc73.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #113 on: March 05, 2017, 12:58:28 PM »



国际  2017年03月05日
中国消费者抵制韩企 乐天超市倒闭

1.2K
中国消费者抵制韩企 乐天超市倒闭

韩国乐天集团同意供地予军方部署萨德导弹防衞系统后,引起中方和中国民眾不满。

有中国网民呼吁消费者抵制韩国企业,导致中国「乐天玛特」超市面临营运危机,近日陆续倒闭。



 


香港《东网》报导,江苏连云港市区的乐天超市今近日出现大批顾客,使用购物卡抢购货物,有顾客表示:「来把购物卡用掉,以后再不来。」

此外,位於北京的乐天超市已纷纷倒闭。超市门口已张贴招租电话號码。

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #114 on: March 10, 2017, 05:34:36 PM »



Update
Oil edges off 3-month low, but glut worries fester
By Reuters / Reuters   | March 10, 2017 : 4:40 PM MYT   
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Translated by Google Translator:
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TOKYO (March 10): Crude prices inched up on Friday after dropping to their lowest in more than three months the session before, pressured by concerns that a global supply glut is proving stubbornly persistent.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 17 cents or 0.4% at US$49.45 a barrel at 0746 GMT. It fell below US$50 on Thursday for the first since mid-December, when OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output.

Brent crude was up 12 cents or 0.2% at US$52.31 a barrel, having settled down 1.7% in the previous session and slumping 5% the day before, in its biggest percentage decline in a year.

WTI is on track for a 7.2% decline this week, the biggest weekly drop since early November. Brent is heading for a 6.4% fall, also the biggest since early November.

Market confidence has taken a hit after a period of higher prices enticed more U.S. shale oil companies to drill more wells and as stockpiles have remained high.

"Steep price falls in the last two days amid building U.S. inventories show that the market remains concerned about the supply-demand balance," NAB Group Economics said in a research note.

Data showed crude stocks in the United States, the world's top oil consumer, swelled by 8.2 million barrels last week to a record 528.4 million barrels.

U.S. drilling has also picked up, with producers planning to expand crude production in North Dakota, Oklahoma and other shale regions, while output has jumped in the Permian, America's largest oilfield.

That has undermined the bullish sentiment generated after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major producers, including Russia agreed to cut production in the first half of this year to drain a global glut.

"Should data continue to confirm that the OPEC-Russia deal is holding, we expect a gradual uptrend this year, although if inventories remain elevated a rally will be less likely," NAB said.

Senior Saudi energy officials told top independent U.S. oil firms in a closed-door meeting this week that they should not assume OPEC would extend output curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Energy ministers and senior oil executives are meeting this week at CERAWeek in Houston, the biggest U.S. gathering of the oil industry.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #115 on: March 15, 2017, 12:24:05 PM »



李克强:GDP 6.5%目标很不容易
全国人大闭幕,国务院总理李克强今日依照惯例举行总理记者会。李克强表示,中国今年6.5%的经济增长目标不低,也很不容易,但中国不发展是最大风险,强调中国金融体系是总体安全,不会发生系统性风险。

(图:法新社)
(中国.北京15日讯)全国人大闭幕,国务院总理李克强今日依照惯例举行总理记者会。李克强表示,中国今年6.5%的经济增长目标不低,也很不容易,但中国不发展是最大风险,强调中国金融体系是总体安全,不会发生系统性风险。

广告
 

 
李克强称,中国保持中高速稳定增长是对世界稳定做贡献,目前中国经济增速目标符合经济规律,亦更注意质量和效益。

他认为,世界经济政治不确定性是很大的外部风险,中国经济自身也有不可忽视的风险,如金融领域。不过,中国金融体系是总体安全的,不会发生系统性风险,而政府赤字、银行资本充足率等许多指标表现都超出国际标准,相信中国经济中高速发展会系紧“安全带”。

他续指,在全球化进程受到挫折的情况下,中国始终坚持维护经济全球化,支持自由贸易。中国愿意与世界各国一同解决全球化问题。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2017.03.15

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #116 on: March 16, 2017, 09:02:23 PM »



China, Saudi Arabia eye US$65 bil in deals as king visits
TheEdgeThu, Mar 16, 2017

BEIJING/RIYADH (March 16): Saudi Arabia's King Salman oversaw the signing of deals worth potentially US$65 billion as he began a visit to Beijing on Thursday, as the world's largest oil producer looks to cement ties with the world's second-largest economy.

The octogenarian monarch, who has overseen the launch of an ambitious economic reform plan since his accession two years ago, is on a month-long Asian tour.

The visits to countries that are some of world's fastest growing importers of Saudi oil aim to promote investment opportunities in the kingdom, including the sale of a stake in its giant state firm Saudi Aramco.

Saudi Arabia has sought to boost oil sales to China, the world's second-largest oil market, after losing market share to Russia last year, by working mostly with China's top three state oil firms.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Salman in Beijing's cavernous Great Hall of the People that his visit showed the importance he attached to relations with China.

"This visit will push forward and continue to improve the quality of our relations and bear new fruit," Xi said in comments in front of reporters.

'Old friends'

Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Zhang Ming said the memorandums of understanding and letters of intent were potentially worth about US$65 billion, involving everything from energy to space, but he did not give details.

"President Xi Jinping and King Salman are old friends," Zhang said. "Practical cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia has already made major achievements, and has huge potential."

For Saudi Aramco, the potential investments fit with its strategy to expand its refining and chemicals portfolio in its bid to diversify assets and secure long-term agreements for its oil.

An MoU with state-run Norinco will look into building refining and chemical projects in China, while Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) and Sinopec have agreed to develop petrochemical projects in China and Saudi Arabia.

The Norinco deal could involve exploring the possibility of a greenfield refinery and chemical plant in Panjin, Liaoning province, while also upgrading an existing refinery and petrochemical facility in the same location, an industry source said.

Sinopec and SABIC, one of the world's largest petrochemical companies, jointly run a refinery in Tinajin.

'Honest broker'

China has traditionally played little role in Middle East conflicts or diplomacy, despite its reliance on the region for oil. But it has been trying to get more involved in efforts to end Syria's six-year-old civil war, where Riyadh supports rebels battling President Bashar al-Assad.

Last year China also offered support for Yemen's government, which is backed by a Saudi-led Gulf Arab coalition in a war against the Iranian-aligned Houthi movement that controls much of the country.

Zhang said both the Yemen and Syria crises were discussed by Salman and Xi, and both leaders agreed that these issues must be resolved politically via talks.

China has had to tread a careful line, though, as it also has close relations with Iran. Xi visited both Saudi Arabia and Iran in January last year.

Next week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits China.

One Beijing-based diplomat from a Muslim-majority country told Reuters that China was trying to play the role of "honest broker" in the Middle East, as it lacks the historical baggage of the Americans or the Europeans.

"China does not take sides and that is appreciated," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #117 on: March 24, 2017, 05:55:57 PM »



2017-03-24 17:13
NCD发行成本飙升‧中银行业钱荒恐再现
中国金融系统正受到一个新问题的困扰,那就是可转让定期存单(Negotiable Certificate of Deposit,简称NCD)的大量使用。
(中国‧北京24日讯)中国金融系统正受到一个新问题的困扰,那就是可转让定期存单(Negotiable Certificate of Deposit,简称NCD)的大量使用。

广告
 

 
N CD是类似债券的贷款,期限从1个月至1年不等。中资银行对NCD的使用呈爆炸式增长,这对中国政府降低经济增长对投资和债务依赖的决心构成考验。

为遏制债务融资引发的资产泡沫,中国政府上调了一系列关键短期利率,受此影响,NCD的成本也快速上升,并使银行业暴露于投资亏损和突现融资压力的风险之下。中国政府自1月底以来已两度上调短期利率。

如此下去前景堪忧,2013年后果严重的钱荒局面或将重现。

招商银行(China Merchants Bank)高级分析师刘东亮称,NCD的风险很高,如果处理不当,有可能在整个金融系统内引发流动性危机。

中资银行(主要是中小型银行)通过NCD的融资总额已刷新纪录,今年迄今已达人民币4.4万亿元(合6390亿美元),较去年同期增长65%。这些银行用融资所得购买收益更高、期限更长的资产,比如公司债券或者同业银行发售的投资产品。

N CD最初有吸引力是因为成本低、不要求抵押。但自去年10月份以来,发行AA评级的3个月期NCD的平均成本已经从2.90%涨至4.72%,某些情况下甚至高于AA评级的1年期公司债的收益率。

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经·2

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #118 on: April 02, 2017, 06:14:48 PM »



MONEY

China raises interest rates on standing lending facility loans
Published: April 1, 2017 06:17 PM GMT+8

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China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs by raising interest rates for standing lending facility loans. — Reuters file pic
China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs by raising interest rates for standing lending facility loans. — Reuters file pic
BEIJING, April 1 — China’s central bank raised interest rates for standing lending facility loans, aimed mainly at small- and medium-sized financial institutions, it announced yesterday.

The People’s Bank of China increased the rate for overnight SLF loans by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 per cent effective from March 16, it said in a statement on its website. The bank raised the rate for 7-day loans to 3.45 per cent and the 1-month rate to 3.8 per cent.

Once largely reliant on benchmark rates, the PBOC has in recent years used an expanding number of instruments to guide borrowing costs and create an interest-rate corridor. It has increased the frequency of its open-market operations, while officials have been more vocal in signalling policy intentions.

The bank said it conducted about 122 billion yuan (RM78.3 billion) of operations for the SLF loans last month and the outstanding facility was about 70 billion yuan at the end of March. The SLF rates play a role in being the ceiling of an interest-rate corridor and will favour stable operation of rates in the currency market, the bank said.

The SLF is similar to the Federal Reserve’s discount window and the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility. It was started in 2013 and its maximum maturity has been kept at one month or below for the past two years.

China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs as a stable economy and factory reflation give it scope to follow the Federal Reserve in tightening policy. The financial institutions have strong incentives to expand credit with the economy steady, inflation accelerating and real-lending costs going down, the central bank said in a statement last month. —

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/china-raises-interest-rates-on-standing-lending-facility-loans#sthash.n7SsAFcu.dpuf

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #119 on: April 04, 2017, 08:32:21 AM »



2017-04-03 15:44
中国人行拟收紧货币政策
中国人行最新货币政策例会对全球经济复苏持更乐观的看法,但也认为国际性风险增多,并更强调了货币政策趋紧的基调。
(中国.北京3日讯)中国人行最新货币政策例会对全球经济复苏持更乐观的看法,但也认为国际性风险增多,并更强调了货币政策趋紧的基调。

广告
 

 
中国人行在第一季度货币政策例会的最新表述是,全球经济逐步复苏,主要发达国家复苏步伐有所加快,国际金融市场存在较多风险隐患,要实施好稳健中性的货币政策。

而此前在去年第四季度货币政策例会中,中国中行表示,主要经济体经济走势分化,美国经济复苏有所加快,欧元区复苏基础尚待巩固,日本经济低迷,国际金融市场风险隐患增多,并表示继续实施稳健的货币政策。

防风险遏泡沫去产能

今年以来主要经济体经济逐步复苏,美联储持续加息,其它发达经济体货币政策也有逐步趋紧的迹象,从中国国内看,一季度经济持续复苏,同时政府更强调要防风险遏泡沫以及去产能,加上汇率维稳要求,中国中行也正进一步收紧货币政策。

事实上,今年以来,中国中行已两度上调货币市场工具利率,包括公开市场逆回购利率、常备借贷便利(SLF)利率以及中期借贷便利(MLF)利率,虽然中行一直强调这并不意味着加息(传统意义上的加息是指上调基准存贷款利率),但其收紧的意图已非常明显。

去年底中国政府提出货币政策要“稳健中性”,和此前一直表述的“稳健”有些许调整,市场解读为货币政策将退出宽松并逐步趋紧。


东尼看上越南 开第二家廉航公司

广告

 
中国中行在第一季度货币政策例会上还表示,综合运用多种货币政策工具,维护流动性基本稳定,引导货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长。

汇率机制方面,中国中行则重申,进一步推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2017.04.03

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #120 on: April 17, 2017, 12:22:23 PM »



Highlight
China 1Q GDP grows faster than expected 6.9%, steel output hits record
Reuters
/
Reuters

April 17, 2017 11:13 am MYT
-A+A
BEIJING (April 17): China's economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market that is showing signs of overheating.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8% in the first quarter, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2016.

First-quarter growth was the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, with March data showing investment, retail sales, factory output and exports all grew faster than expected.

The strong reading should help underpin wobbly global financial markets but adds to worries that China's government is still relying too heavily on stimulus and "old economy" growth drivers and is not doing enough to tackle risks from an explosive build-up in debt.

While China's data has been largely upbeat so far this year, many analysts widely expect the world's second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities step up their battle to rein in hot housing prices.

Real estate investment growth accelerated to 9.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, as the pace of new construction starts quickened despite intensified government cooling measures.

Though policymakers have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the world's second-largest economy on an even keel ahead of a major leadership transition later this year.

The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5% in 2017, slightly lower than last year's target of 6.5-7% and the actual 6.7%, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

Economic data was up across the board in March, with factory output increasing at the fastest pace since December 2014 and firms stepping up capital investments after a slowdown last year.

Industrial output rose 7.6% in March, with steel output the highest on record, according to Reuters data, adding to evidence of a global manufacturing revival that is buoying prices of industrial materials from iron ore to coking coal.

But consumption also appears to be picking up, contributing to 77.2% of first-quarter growth, while retail sales growth picked up to 10.9% after slowing in the first two months of the year.

Still, many analysts expect economic growth to cool later this year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities resort to ever-tougher measures in a bid to get soaring home prices under control.

Beijing also is continuing to rely heavily on new credit to generate growth as productivity slows, despite worries about debt risks.

China's banks extended the third highest loans on record in the first quarter, though March lending was less than expected.

At the same time, China's central bank has shifted to a tightening bias, and is using more targeted measures to contain risks in the financial system, after years of ultra-loose settings.

It has raised short-term interest rates several times already this year, and further modest hikes are expected as it tries to coax debt-laden firms to reduce leverage.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #121 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:06 PM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 24 April 2017 | MYT 2:02 PM
China stocks head for worst day of 2017 as regulators tighten grip
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/24/06/06/yuan-april17.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=A76AF81F7B16E879F4B6E47571D4DA3BE3282457

 
SHANGHAI: China stocks tumbled more than 1 percent on Monday and looked set for their biggest loss of the year amid signs that Beijing would tolerate more market volatility as regulators clamp down on shadow banking and speculative trading.

Recent signs of stability in China's economy "have provided a good external environment and a window of opportunity to reduce leverage in the financial system, strengthen supervision and ward off risks," the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday.

"Over the past week, interbank rates trended higher, bond and capital markets suffered from sustained corrections and some institutions faced liquidity pressure. But these have little impact to the stability of the broader environment."

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.6 percent to 3,123.80 points by the lunch break, after posting its biggest weekly loss so far this year last week.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 1.3 percent to 3,423.11.

Barring a rebound, the indexes looked set for their biggest one-day percentage loss since mid-December.

Daily declines of more than 1 percent in the indexes have been rare for notoriously volatile Chinese markets this year.

"Even the better-than-expected Q1 data could not boost the market, as investors are concerned about regulatory risks," wrote Larry Hu, analyst at Macquarie Capital Ltd, referring to stronger-than-expected 6.9 percent economic growth early in the year.

In the latest of a flurry of regulatory measures, China's insurance regulator said on Sunday it will ramp up its supervision of insurance companies to make sure they comply with tighter risk controls and threatened to investigate executives who flout rules aimed at rooting out risk-taking.

The banking regulator said late on Friday that growth in Chinese wealth management products (WMPs) and interbank liabilities eased in the first quarter, suggesting authorities are making some headway in containing financial risks built up by years of debt-fuelled stimulus.

But while the clampdown is expected to continue, most analysts believe moves will be cautious to avoid hitting economic growth.

Investors are already concerned that the economy could lose momentum in coming months as local governments launch more stringent measures to cool heated property prices.

"Market risk appetites could continue to decline if financial regulation keeps tightening," said Gao Ting, Head of China Strategy at UBS Securities.

"Investors seem to mostly be responding by adjusting their positions, particularly by rotating into high-quality blue-chips."

Banking is the only main sector that ended the morning in positive territory, while small-caps suffered massive sell-offs, with an index tracking start-up stocks falling nearly 2 percent.

HONG KONG

In Hong Kong, stocks dipped slightly, with the bearish sentiment from China largely neutralized after the market's favoured candidate won through the first round of the French election, reducing the risk of a Brexit-like shock.

The Hang Seng index dropped 0.1 percent to 24,016.23 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index was unchanged at 10,045.78. - Reuters
 
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Re: CHINA
« Reply #122 on: May 04, 2017, 06:46:25 AM »



储油备战九大基地曝光
中国战略储备未达安全线
967点看 2017年5月3日
 
中国持续兴建战略石油储备基地。

中国周边地缘局势紧张之际,中国官方公布已在浙江、山东、辽宁、天津、甘肃以及新疆等地,建成9个国家战略石油储备基地,共储备3325万吨原油,较前年大增近30%。


分析指中国持续兴建战略石油储备基地,是要增强应对进口石油遭中断风险的能力,但目前存量还未达90天战略储备的“安全线”,因此将争取在4年内,建成百日石油净进口量的储备总规模。

中国官媒报道,国家发改委、国家统计局及商务部等部委日前同步发布消息,指至去年年中,已建成舟山、舟山扩建、镇海、大连、黄岛、独山子、兰州、天津及黄岛国家石油储备洞库(地下库)。

较前年大增715万吨

这9个国家石油储备基地,储备约占全国2015年石油净进口量的10%。而前年年中存量为2610万吨,显示国家石油储备在短短一年内,急增了715万吨。

官方资料显示,上述9个储备基地,储备库容达到500万立方米或以上的基地有4个,包括浙江舟山、镇海和天津及新疆独山子石油储备基地。

库容达到300万立方米的则有山东黄岛、黄岛洞库、甘肃兰州、辽宁大连,而舟山扩建石油储备基地,库容也有250万立方米。

报道引述专家表示,中国原油对外依存度已升至65%,大规模建设国家石油储备基地,主要为进一步增强中国应对石油中断风险的能力。另有专家就分析指出,中国加快储备石油,为应对随时可能爆发的战争。

不过专家认为,中国石油储备量还远远未达国际能源署规定的战略石油储备能力90天的“安全线”,且仍然远低于美国、日本、德国的储备量。

根据国务院批准的《国家石油储备中长期规划》,2020年以前,中国将陆续建设国家石油储备第二期、第三期项目,形成相当于100日石油净进口量的储备总规模。



已建3条陆地管道
防甲峡海路通道断

中国在积极建立石油战略储备的同时,为防范海上原油通道被切断及突破马六甲海峡困局,一方面发展海军力量,加强海上护航能力,另一方面则在过去十多年间,至少已建成3条陆地进口原油管道。

后者包括西北通道中亚、中哈管道、东北的中俄管道及西南的中缅管道。

西北原油通道,包括中国连接哈萨克的原油管道,西起里海的阿特劳,终点为中哈边界阿拉山口,全长近2800公里。

而中国连接中亚天然气管道起于土库曼,经乌兹别克中部和哈萨克南部,从霍尔果斯进入中国,管道全长约1万公里,是世界最长的天然气管道。

中俄原油管道长4770公里,由西伯利亚至中国东北。中缅油气管道是中国第四大能源进口通道,包括原油管道和天然气管道,可使原油运输不经马六甲海峡,从西南地区输送。

国际形势诡谲多变
趁油价低快速储备

中国的战略石油储备,是为了应对突发事件,确保国家能源安全的重要措施之一。

为应对国家快速发展及诡谲多变的国际形势,中国近年趁国际油价下跌,积极增加石油储备量,惟与美、日等其他国家相比,仍有相当大的差距。

可抑制物价大波动

国家石油储备是一个国家的重要战略储备项目之一,一方面可应对石油供应中断带来的国家安全风险,另可抑制市场物价大幅波动造成的风险。

1973年第一次石油危机爆发后,世界油价上涨了5倍,引起西方经济和社会大动荡,由此,西方各国开始建立石油战略储备体系。

据悉,美国目前的国家战略石油储备约为9400万吨左右,足以支持149天的进口保护;而日本的战略储备也接近150天;德国的战略储备为100天。


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #123 on: May 05, 2017, 03:06:16 PM »



2017-05-05 14:25
负债惊人‧中铁总=泡沫帝国?
扮演中国“走出去”重责大任的中国铁路总公司(简称:中铁总),日前公布了2016年财报,总负债高达近5兆元(人民币,下同),超过3.14兆令吉,相较9年前债务增加了7倍。

(新华社照片)
(北京5日讯)扮演中国“走出去”重责大任的中国铁路总公司(简称:中铁总),日前公布了2016年财报,总负债高达近5兆元(人民币,下同),超过3.14兆令吉,相较9年前债务增加了7倍。

广告

 
中铁近期收购大马城不成,引起关注。

根据报道,令人惊异的是,不仅债务惊人,中铁总盈利也低到惊人,在政府的大力补贴下,2016年前3季还亏55.77亿,随着中国一带一路,以高铁为主的基建走出走,负债恐越来越大,说它是泡沫帝国,一点也不为过。

中国媒体嘲讽,全球恐怕找不出几家这样的企业:注册资本惊人、资产惊人、债务惊人、盈利也低到惊人,更传奇的是,总债务已高达4.7兆,每年债务还以6000亿规模在增加,且这样的债务增长故事,已经多年。

2013年3月14日,中国国务院批覆组建中国铁路总公司,注册资本达1兆360亿元,连4大国有银行都无法比拟,相比中国主权基金中投公司1.55兆的注册资本毫不逊色,绝对堪称是特殊央企。

文章来源:
星洲网·2017.05.05

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #124 on: May 07, 2017, 07:31:58 PM »



2017-05-05 18:09
破除谣言‧中国政府负债率仅36.7%
中国人民银行(中国中行,简称人行)官员分析,中国政府负债率可能超过60%警戒线。中国财政部表示,截至2016年年底,中国政府负债总额达27.33兆元(人民币,下同),负债率为36.7%,风险总体可控。

(中国‧北京5日讯)中国人民银行(中国中行,简称人行)官员分析,中国政府负债率可能超过60%警戒线。中国财政部表示,截至2016年年底,中国政府负债总额达27.33兆元(人民币,下同),负债率为36.7%,风险总体可控。

广告
中国人民银行研究局局长徐忠日前分析,中国政府地方债务余额在2014年底累积达到24兆元,若是联同城投债等其他隐项负债,中国政府负债可能超过60%的政府债务警戒线。

中国财政部有关负责人指出,截至2016年底,中国地方政府债务为15.32兆元,地方政府债务率为80.5%。加上纳入预算管理的中央债务12.01兆元,两者合计,中国政府债务为27.33兆元。

按照中国国家统计局公布的2016年国内生产总额(GDP)初步核算数74.41兆元计算,中国政府债务负债率为36.7%,低于主要市场经济国家和新兴市场国家水平,风险总体可控。

这名负责人表示,一些地方政府违法违规举债融资问题仍时有发生,部份金融机构对融资平台公司等国有企业提供融资时,仍要求地方政府提供担保承诺。部份政府和社会资本合作项目、政府投资基金等存在不规范现象,违反现行法律法规,扰乱市场秩序,提高财政金融风险。

中国财政部与中国国家发展和改革委员会、司法部、中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会已经发布通知,进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为,希望能守住不发生区域性、系统性风险底线。

中国六部委联手 严管地方举债

中国财政部等六部委近日联袂下发通知,进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为,严禁利用PPP变相举债。分析认为,从房地产调控到金融严监管,再到下发这份通知,都是为落实中央所提出,“守住不发生区域性、系统性风险的底线”。

广告

 
中国财政部、发展改革委、司法部、人民银行、银监会、证监会近日联合发布“关于进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为的通知”,这份“通知”重点在组织清理整改地方政府融资担保行为、切实加强融资平台公司融资管理、规范政府与社会资本方的合作行为等六大方面,明确了规范的举债融资行为边界和负面清单,坚决制止违法违规举债担保行为。

中国财政部指出,一些地区政府违法违规举债担保仍时有发生,部份金融机构对企业提供融资时仍要求地方政府提供担保承诺,部份政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目、政府投资基金等存在不规范现象。这些行为违反了现行法律法规和制度规定,也扰乱市场秩序,积聚财政金融风险。

为制止地方政府违法违规举债担保行为,中国财政部将建立地方政府债务常态化监督机制,定期核查违法违规融资担保问题,加大惩处违法违规行为工作力度,并公开曝光一批违法违规案例。

中国近年来“PPP”规模快速膨胀,据统计,全国PPP项目投资额从2016年1月的4100亿元,到当年底已达到2.23兆元。在快速发展的同时,也出现“明股实债”、项目风险分配不当等问题。

广告

联讯证券首席宏观研究员李奇霖表示,此次下发的这份通知,将地方政府债务管理上升到维护总体国家安全的高度。通知并要求必须在7月31日前清理整改到位,对逾期不改正或改正不到位的部门、市县政府,追究相关责任人的责任。在地方政府举债融资严监管之下,基础建设资金来源将进一步受阻。

李奇霖认为,中国目前推行中的金融去杠杆,提高了实体融资成本和难度,对经济的负反馈作用将逐步显现

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经·2017.05.05

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #125 on: May 08, 2017, 04:20:11 PM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 8 May 2017 | MYT 3:47 PM
China’s crackdown on shadow banking could seriously upset global markets
BY NICHOLAS SPIRO

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/05/08/07/06/chinasforexreserveskeepupgrowthspurtexpandingroomforreform.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=82D194F479C3F7D8003E876776014EAF57E447D8

 
HONG KONG: Amid all the talk of remarkably subdued levels of volatility, signs of potentially severe stress are emerging from one of the most – if not the most – vulnerable areas in global financial markets: China’s unruly shadow banking sector.

The Beijing government’s efforts to discipline its financial system and rein in a huge credit bubble have already led to a deterioration in sentiment in the country’s equity and debt markets.

Since the drive to curb financial leverage intensified in early April, China’s banks have started withdrawing money from so-called entrusted investments – asset or wealth management products that banks outsource to third-party asset managers – which has forced non-bank financial institutions to sell their bond and equity holdings.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which on April 11 reached its highest level since January 2016 – the month during which global stock markets suffered a dramatic sell-off because of heightened fears about China’s economy and policy regime – has fallen more than 5.5 per cent over the past month.

Short-term lending rates, meanwhile, have surged since President Xi Jinping told a politburo meeting on April 26 that maintaining financial stability was “strategically important”. The overnight Shanghai interbank offered rate currently stands at its highest level since April 2015.

More worryingly, there are signs that China’s economy is beginning to slow once again. On April 30, the publication of an official purchasing managers’ index survey showed that growth in the manufacturing sector last month fell to a six-month low. A separate survey for China’s services sector also revealed that activity has dropped to its lowest level in six months.

A brutal sell-off across commodity markets is putting China’s manufacturing industry under strain and, more alarmingly for international investors and traders, accentuating the risks posed by Beijing’s efforts to tighten liquidity and rein in shadow bank credit.

While the steep falls in commodity prices – iron ore has dropped below US$60 a tonne for the first time in six months, copper prices are down more than 6 per cent since the end of March, while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is back below US$50 a barrel for the first time since late November – stem partly from persistent concerns about global oversupply, the sell-off is inextricably linked to measures to curb financial risk in China.

As ADM ISI, a London-based brokerage, rightly notes, “while oil’s fall owes much to doubts about the efficacy of production cut, this is as much or more about the China clampdown on credit and leverage”.

Make no mistake, the global repercussions of Chinese regulators’ efforts to tame financial risk could become a lot more severe in the coming weeks and months.

The whiff of another “January 2016” is in the air.

While Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on shadow finance is long overdue – China’s total debt as a share of gross domestic product has surged to nearly 265 per cent since the global financial crisis, while the value of wealth management products, a key part of shadow banking, has tripled to US$3.8 trillion in just three years, according to Bloomberg – the challenge of gently pricking an unprecedented credit bubble without roiling global markets and severely endangering growth in China is a daunting one.

The stakes could not be higher.

As Pimco, an asset manager, notes, Chinese credit has been the driving force behind the “reflation trade” over the past year or so. “Just as a less hawkish Federal Reserve is the backstop to market volatility, the Chinese growth ‘put’ is ultimately the backstop to [emerging market] and commodity-related credit risk,” Pimco wrote in a blog.

Among all the pressure points in markets – and there are many, ranging from concerns about economic policy under the new US administration to the governance of the ill-managed euro zone – regulatory and monetary tightening in China is the one that investors are the most sensitive to.

The betting is that Xi will prize market stability and economic growth above all else in the run-up to November’s crucial party congress at which he expects to cement his influence.

Yet it is also clear that the political impetus behind recent efforts to discipline China’s shaky financial system is considerable and is likely to intensify further, putting commodity markets under further strain.

For the time being, the fallout from the crackdown is confined to the commodity space. Global equity markets remain buoyant while EM bond and equity mutual funds continue to enjoy strong inflows.

Yet the scope for another major China-induced sell-off has increased considerably over the past month. - South China Morning Post.

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/08/china-crackdown-on-shadow-banking-could-seriously-upset-global-markets/#ooR3WPxaKAa6VXMB.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #126 on: May 10, 2017, 06:00:52 PM »



中国最富500人
王健林父子1129亿元登顶
1557点看 2017年5月10日
 
王健林(左)和王思聪的财富缩水了9.5%。(网络图)

(北京10日综合电)新财富杂志微信公众号发布《2017新财富500富人榜》,王健林、王思聪父子以人民币1794.3亿元(约1129.45亿令吉)的财富坐稳首富宝座,紧接着马云的财富也达到1562.6亿元(约983.3亿令吉),而王卫凭借1504.5亿元(约946.8亿令吉)的财富取代马化腾,跻身富人榜的前三位。


贾跃亭财富缩水

与此同时,去年新财富500富人榜前十名中的贾跃亭财富缩水近300亿元(约188.8亿令吉),从去年第9名跌至34名。

虽然王健林、王思聪父子仍坐拥今年富豪榜的第一位,不过这个首富的宝座含金量有所下降。相较2016年的接近2000亿元财富,王健林、王思聪的财富缩水了9.5%。而今年排名第二的马云,期间财富反而上涨了24.3%,由1256.6亿元增至1562.6亿元。

受益于顺丰上市,王卫的财富从去年的300亿元升至1504.5亿元,一年之内暴涨了401.5%。不过,同样备受市场关注的乐视“掌舵者”贾跃亭却遭遇财富缩水。

数字新媒体富豪领风骚

据《新京报》报道,在最近十年间,富人榜完成了洗牌——2007年,中国前十大富人中有七位地产富豪,他们甚至包揽了前四名;而2017年中国前十名富人中有五位来自数字新媒体,而以房地产起家的王健林、卢志强也已向综合转型,地产商独领风骚的年代已经走远。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #127 on: May 21, 2017, 06:33:00 AM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Saturday, 20 May 2017 | MYT 8:47 PM
China's Q2 GDP growth seen at around 6.8%
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/13/04/22/china-manufacturing.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=7466C71190536A118CB81EACAEFA31CEDADDA84C

 
SHANGHAI: China's economy will likely expand around 6.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, the State Information Center said in an article published in the state-owned China Securities Journal on Saturday.

The State Information Center is an official think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planning agency.

It forecast consumer inflation in the world's second largest economy of around 1.4 percent and expected an increase of about 6.5 percent in producer price inflation in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier.

"Overall, China's economy will remain stable but with a slightly slowing trend," the think tank said in the paper.

China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a housing market that has shown signs of overheating.

The think tank said it had seen contradictions between government policies to fend off financial risks and reduce corporate finance costs.

"Strengthening financial regulations has weakened the effect of monetary policy to a certain extent," it said, suggesting that a prudent and neutral monetary policy may actually manifest itself as a tightening bias when implemented.

The State Information Center also said that steady growth of the economy may be inhibited due to worsening labour and debt conditions amid deepening cuts in excess industrial capacity.

China is aiming to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, Premier Li Keqiang said during the annual meeting of parliament in March. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/20/china-q2-gdp-growth-seen-at-around-6pt8pct/#6LEHXWoTGGkHCDih.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #128 on: May 25, 2017, 06:33:13 AM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Wednesday, 24 May 2017 | MYT 1:51 PM
Moody's downgrades China, warns of fading financial strength as debt mounts
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/01/11/06/26/finance-public-debt-eu-eurozone-ratings-moodys-files-002215.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=FF07A50F5690BAE5787B58AB6447D79D6D5E9ACC

 
SHANGHAI: Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit ratings on Wednesday for the first time in nearly 30 years, saying it expects the financial strength of the economy will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.

The one-notch downgrade in long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings, to A1 from Aa3, comes as the Chinese government grapples with the challenges of rising financial risks stemming from years of credit-fuelled stimulus.

"The downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that China's financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years, with economy-wide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows," the rating agency said in a statement, changing its outlook for China to stable from negative.

China's Finance Ministry said the downgrade, Moody's first for the country since 1989, overestimated the risks to the economy and was based on "inappropriate methodology".

Moody'€s views that China'€s non-financial debt will rise rapidly and the government would continue to maintain growth via stimulus measures are exaggerating difficulties facing the Chinese economy, and underestimating the Chinese government's ability to deepen supply-side structural reform and appropriately expand aggregate demand, the ministry said in a statement.

China's leaders have identified the containment of financial risks and asset bubbles as a top priority this year. All the same, authorities have moved cautiously to avoid knocking economic growth, gingerly raising short-term interest rates while tightening regulatory supervision.

At the same time, Beijing's need to deliver on official growth targets is likely to make the economy increasingly reliant on stimulus, Moody's said.

"While ongoing progress on reforms is likely to transform the economy and financial system over time, it is not likely to prevent a further material rise in economy-wide debt, and the consequent increase in contingent liabilities for the government," Moody's said.

While the downgrade is likely to modestly increase the cost of borrowing for the Chinese government and its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), it remains comfortably within the investment grade rating range.

China's Shanghai Composite index fell more than 1% in early trade before paring losses, while the yuan currency in the offshore market briefly dipped nearly 0.1% against the US dollar after the news.

The Australian dollar, often see as a liquid proxy for China risk, also slipped.

One trader at a foreign bank in Shanghai said the spread between benchmark government bonds and those issued by SOEs in US dollars widened by 2-3 basis points.

"It's going to be quite negative in terms of sentiment, particularly at a time when China is looking to derisk the banking system, as well as at a time when there's going to be some potential restructuring of SOEs," said Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank's Treasury division.

GROWTH TO SLOW

In March 2016, Moody's cut its outlook on China's ratings to negative from stable, citing rising debt and uncertainty about authorities' ability to carry out reforms and address economic imbalances.

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook to negative in the same month. S&P's AA- rating is one notch above both Moody's and Fitch Ratings, leading to speculation among analysts that S&P could also downgrade soon.

Moody's has Japan at the same A1 rating China is now on.

"We understand the risk and the reason for downgrade but due to China being a unique system on its own closed capital account and strong government control over all important sectors - it can tolerate a higher debt level," said Edmund Goh, a Kuala Lumpur-based investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

Moody's has no specific timetable for re-visiting China's rating, but would monitor conditions on a regular basis, said Marie Diron, associate managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.

More than two hours after the announcement from Moody's, no Chinese state media had published news about the downgrade.

The slowing economy has become an increasingly sensitive topic in China, with authorities directing mainland Chinese economists and journalists towards more positive messaging.

When Moody's cut its outlook on China in March 2016, former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said at the time the government didn't "care much" about it.

Lou said China understood rating agencies' concerns about problems such as local government debt, but the government had taken measures to address the issue and it didn't need to consult or seek support from the agencies.

Authorities have stepped up efforts over the last several months to curb debt and housing risks, and a raft of recent data has signalled a cooling in the economy, which grew a solid 6.9% in the first quarter.

China's potential economic growth was likely to slow towards 5% in coming years, but the cooldown is likely to be gradual due to expected fiscal stimulus, Moody's said.

Government-led stimulus has been a major driver of growth over recent years, but the pump-priming has also been accompanied by runaway credit growth and has created a mountain of debt - now standing at nearly 300% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, said steps to resolve the debt overhang, such as debt-for-equity swaps at state-owned enterprises, were insufficient to deal with problem.

"As a result, it'€™s reached the point where the bad debt problem is just so large the government will have to step in to resolve it at some point and that obviously means at some point a sizeable increase in government debt," he said.

Moody's said it expects the government's direct debt burden to rise gradually towards 40% of GDP by 2018 and closer to 45% by the end of the decade.

A growing number of economists believe that a massive bank bailout may be inevitable in China as bad loans mount. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/24/moodys-downgrades-china/#beCEIm9uQ2jFztY0.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #129 on: May 25, 2017, 06:58:11 AM »



穆迪下调中国评级至A1
財经发布於 2017年05月24日 • 最后更新 2017年05月24日 22时44分
穆迪下调中国评级至A1

434分享
(北京24日讯)国际评估机构--穆迪宣布,將中国的评级由Aa3下调至A1,震惊市场。

该评估机构指出,这反映出隨著中国潜在增速放缓,而整体经济的债务继续攀升,其预计中国的財政状况在未来几年会有所恶化。

穆迪也表示,在2018年底前,政府的直接债务负担与GDP之比將逐步升向40%,到2020年底时將接近45%。未来5年的潜在成长率將降至近5%的水平。


虽然如此,穆迪將中国评级展望由负面调整为稳定。

这是穆迪自1989年以来首次宣布下调中国的主权评级,置疑中国在去槓桿的同时能否保持经济增速。对此人民幣离岸市场曾一度出现不足百点的跳空下跌,但市场並未体现出明显的恐慌情绪,人民幣跌势转瞬即逝、並隨后迅速回弹。

市场普遍对此感到意外。而中国財政部隨后作出回应表示,穆迪下调中国评级是基於「顺周期」评级的不恰当方法。

中国財政部在穆迪下调中国主权信用评级后,发布有关负责人答记者的新闻稿指出,穆迪在一定程度上高估了中国经济面临的困难;但中国有望继续保持中高速成长將支撑债务风险防控。

新闻稿也指出,2016年中国政府债务风险总体可控,债务余额/GDP为36.7%,低於负债率60%的欧盟警戒线。此外,也声明,中国政府举债受到严格控制,债务规模將保持合理成长,因此,2018-2020年中国政府债务风险指標与2016年比不会发生大变化。

中国財政部也指,一些国际机构对中国法律制度规定缺乏必要的了解。並认为,穆迪所谓地方政府融资平台、国有企业等债务水平持续成长会增加政府或有债务的说法不成立。

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #130 on: May 28, 2017, 06:59:11 PM »



Currencies
Former HKMA chief Joseph Yam says China quite right to take a cautious approach on allowing the yuan to become freely traded
The next global financial crisis ‘could be even bigger than previous ones’, he adds, that’s why China must be cautious with its currency
PUBLISHED : Friday, 26 May, 2017, 4:36pm
UPDATED : Friday, 26 May, 2017, 10:53pm
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US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seen on a TV monitor as the one next to it shows the yen’s exchange rate against the US dollar, at a forex trading company in Tokyo on February 1. Photo: Reuters
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Joseph Yam Chi-kwong, former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), says the next global financial crisis could be even bigger than previous ones – and that’s part of the reason why China should not let its currency to be freely traded, but only allow it to be tradable via monitoring.
“In my opinion, the renminbi should not be freely convertible without monitoring, but the currency should be allowed to be tradable under appropriate reporting and monitoring,” he said on Friday.
He added it would only be safe and appropriate to allow people to convert large amounts of other currencies into yuan, if they report and declare the exact purpose of the usage to the authority, which should also then strictly enforce the use of the money.
“As an example, if someone reports he is to convert 1 billion yuan (US$145 million) to invest in the stock market and three months later he has not invested the money, the authority should order him to take the money out of the country,” Yam said.
Yam, who ran Hong Kong’s central bank from its creation in 1994 to 2009, and who acted as an adviser to incoming Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor during her election campaign, has a close working relationship with both the mainland authorities and The People’s Bank of China.

He is a strong supporter of China’s socialist-led market economy, which accepts more market opening up to the outside world under monitoring and controls.
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For someone like me, who has always believed in market forces, it [the government’s intervention in August 1998, to defend against currency speculators] felt like being betrayed by a friendJOSEPH YAM CHI-KWONG, FORMER HEAD OF HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY
He says that’s how China has been able to weather the recent global financial crises, and achieve better economic performance than many western countries over the past 20 years.
“Please don’t misunderstand me. I still believe in market forces and Hong Kong will never have any capital controls under the Basic Law,” he said.
“But if you look back at the past twenty years, the Hong Kong stock and currency markets were hit hard by the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the Hong Kong government was forced to take market intervention in August 1998, to defend against speculators.
“For someone like me, who has always believed in market forces, it felt like being betrayed by a friend.”
The 2007/2008 financial crisis was, he added, rooted in speculative activities by Wall Street investment banks which introduced sub-prime and other complicated products to investors.
“That was a very bad, greedy culture which led investment banks to carry out their businesses with the sole purpose of benefitting themselves, not the public or their investors,” he added.
“For many freely traded currencies, 95 per cent of trades are done by speculators, with only 5 per cent done by those who need the currency for business purposes. This is not healthy.”
But Yam said the damaging speculative culture in the world’s biggest financial market has not changed, and the monetary easing policies in the US since 2008 have simply led to trillions of dollars flooding the markets.
“These problems, together with globalisation of economies, means the next financial crisis could be bigger than the previous one,” he said.
“Hong Kong needs to make sure its system is prepared for that, while China also needs to adopt a safe approach to open up its market and internationalise its currency.”
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as:
Yuan should not be freely traded: Yam

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #131 on: June 01, 2017, 12:14:08 PM »



May 31, 2017
Qian Hai Life signals systemic risks in China’s financial sector – Will China insurance market crash?
Chinese insurers breached investment limits and took unnecessary risks, to the detriment of consumers, for profits.

Editorial

Consumers were only highlighted after a leak from an anonymous email

There was a leak from an anonymous email on the 15th May. Five sealed documents and other two documents showed how Qian Hai Life (Foresea Life) requested regulators for a reprieve from restrictions on selling new insurance products.

China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) had suspended Qian Hai Life from selling new insurance products on 5th December 2016 for 3 months. This is a punishment to Qian Hai’s aggressive moves into high-risk stock market. To make matters worse, in February, then-Chairman Yao Zhenhua was banned from working in the insurance industry for 10 years. Qian Hai had used insurance premiums to invest in the stock market beyond stipulated limits.

In 1Q 2017, Qian Hai life recorded 70% decline in premium income. To date, CIRC has yet to approve any of Qian Hai Life’s new products.

Qian Hai begged CIRC to restore their business, an act to save themselves?

Qian Hai almost begged CIRC to restore their business, saying that banning new products will cause greater harm to their customers and the insurance industry. It was reported that Qian Hai Life warned the CIRC in its communications about the possibility of a liquidity crunch triggering mass defaults.

In the documents, Qian Hai Life threatened CIRC that the total surrender value of Qian Hai’s insurance products will accumulate to RMB60 billion (US$8.7 billion). If the company is not able to reinstate their right to sell universal life products, there probably will be “mass disturbances” and “systematic and regional risks”. To repay the kindness of CIRC, Qian Hai promised that they will “coordinate with the CIRC and the government’s need to deal with Vanke’s procedures for changing the board of directors”. Qian Hai’s parent company Baoneng, a real estate giant became Vanke’s biggest shareholder, another real estate giant in China, in 2016.

Qian Hai Life recorded a negative cash inflow of RMB12.4 billion (US$1.8 billion) for the quarter, compared with a negative cash inflow of 1 billion yuan the previous quarter — when the ban went into effect, its solvency reports show. The company had recorded positive cash inflows in the first three quarters of 2016.

Qian Hai Life is not the only Chinese life insurer under regulatory scrutiny

Since late 2016, CIRC has penalised Soochow Life Insurance Co. Ltd., Huaxia Life Insurance Co. Ltd., Pramerica Fosun Life Insurance Co. Ltd. and Anbang Life Insurance Co. Ltd. for violating rules on selling wealth management-type products, while Evergrande Life Insurance Co. Ltd. has been punished for investing aggressively in China’s stock markets.

Chinese insurers may now outsource investments to avoid risking breaches

Some insurers may have decided to outsource investments altogether to avoid trouble. China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. agreed to an investment partnership with Manulife Asset Management, the first such tie-up for the Chinese insurer. The partnership is in line with China Life’s strategy to partner with overseas institutions to explore foreign investment opportunities, according to a statement by the company in Chinese.

May 31, 2017
A tale of two kings

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #132 on: June 05, 2017, 06:47:54 AM »



中資大舉收購 日媒:北海道恐成中國“北海省”
 9172点阅   2017年6月04日
北海道的富田農場。(互聯網)
北海道的富田農場。(互聯網)
北海道有地要出售。《News PostSeven》
北海道有地要出售。《News PostSeven》
日本北海道四季優美,是知名的觀光熱點。但中資近年大舉收購北海道的森林,日媒憂北海道恐成中國“北海省”。



日本新聞網站《News PostSeven》日前報導,日本農林水產部4月公布的調查資料顯示,去年外資企業購買的日本森林面積達202公頃,是前年的3倍,多在北海道,且81%是被中國、台灣及香港人收購,北海道已快變成中國的北海省,令日本政界受到巨大衝擊。

日本眾議院維新會議員丸山穗高稱,不少收購日本土地的中資企業,乍看之下看不出來與中資有關,因經營者欄位多寫著日本人名字,但實際上是“空殼公司”。呼籲日本政府需要儘快制定相關法律,保護國土遭到外資收購。

北海道前議員小野寺秀稱,若不遏制中資收購北海道農地和水源地,該區的食品安全保障體系將崩潰。如果出現世界性糧食危機,被收購的土地所種出來之農作物或直接出口中國,“若再無相關措施,只能眼睜睜的看著廣大土地被中資買走。”。



他說:“沒有可以阻止的法律制度,繼續放任中國不斷侵食,北海道淪為中國北海省的日子恐怕不遠。”

日本《產經新聞》近期也報導,越來越多中國人到日本旅遊、移民,他們正在當地大手筆買地、買房。其中北海道更是熱點。



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Re: CHINA
« Reply #133 on: June 06, 2017, 08:44:59 AM »



China gaining influence over ASEAN while US influence dwindles
Posted by admin2
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China has wasted no time stepping up its audacious bid to exert more control over ASEAN following Donald Trump’s election as US president. Southeast Asian nations find themselves in an uncomfortable position.

By John Pennington

It did not take long for the impact of Trump’s election to reach Southeast Asia. The repeal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the establishment of a warm accord with Xi Jinping to combat the threat of North Korea are moves that could have been designed specifically to push ASEAN nations into China’s orbit.

China needed no second invitation to take advantage. China continued its audacious bid to swallow them up and assert control over a disunited Southeast Asian bloc as ASEAN countries feel ignored or even abandoned by the US.

China is adopting a “divide and conquer” approach

China is instead using a “divide and conquer” approach in ASEAN. As a united front, ASEAN has bigger bargaining power than if they were dealing with China one at a time. They turned their attentions to bringing individual countries into their sphere of influence to break down the ties that make ASEAN strong. China employed bilateral diplomacy to smooth over relations to keep potential flashpoints under control.

China also committed significant investment and commitment to future partnerships. Closer ties mean those countries are heavily reliant on China and are unlikely to go against Beijing for fear of reprisals. In return for infrastructure and investment, China negotiated concessions. Unsure about what support ASEAN has from the US, there is “neither the stomach nor the means” to challenge China.

Chinese investment in Southeast Asia is significant

China’s increasing investment in ASEAN (US$ billion)


Source: China’s Economic Ties with ASEAN: A Country- by Country Analysis

In total, two-way investment between China and ASEAN since 1967 adds up to more than US$160 billion. China invested more than US$5 billion in Laos, US$18.5 billion in Myanmar, more than US$10 billion in Cambodia between 1994 and 2012 and a further US$3.7 billion since. Chinese companies control Cambodia’s power supply.
China is Thailand’s largest trading partner and second largest investor. The country has just approved the purchase of three submarines from China worth more than US$1 billion and is a recipient country of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.

The promise of future investment helped turn the Philippines into an ally

A good example of China’s approach is the way that they turned the election of President Rodrigo Duterte into a success for themselves. Despite Duterte’s recent conversation with Trump, he decided to reinvigorate Sino-Filipino relations at the expense of his ties with Washington. By making that decision, Duterte gave China the opportunity they needed.

The promise of investment in his country – for the first time in five years – has ramifications beyond just his own borders. The Hague’s legal judgment in the Philippines’ favour against China’s claim to the South China Sea has been swept aside.

Proof of that came when, during his address as ASEAN chairman, he rowed back on keeping the pressure on China to respect the judgment. Duterte will cut a deal to ignore the judgment in exchange for financial support. With the US out of the picture, Beijing will now agree on the framework for a Code of Conduct.

ASEAN capitulation over the South China Sea is a huge win for China

Duterte’s actions undermine the other countries – Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand – with claims to the South China Sea and supports China. The other countries cannot stand up to China now that Duterte has effectively ceded the initiative. One of the parties having its own bilateral arrangement means the previous unilateral approach is no longer viable. Furthermore, a complete lack of US support or action in the area leaves ASEAN increasingly isolated.

China’s lobbying worked. “By any measure, this was a slam-dunk diplomatic victory for Beijing, which has sought to court Mr. Duterte by offering multibillion-dollar investments and the prospect of joint development deals in contested waters,” surmised Richard Javid Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in the Philippines.

For the moment, only Singapore and Vietnam do not appear to have moved any closer to Beijing. Instead, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged ASEAN nations to strike a balance between Beijing and Washington. Vietnam has long-standing good relations with the US and will host Trump at November’s APEC summit in Hanoi while Singapore is close to both China and the US.

One Belt, One Road and RCEP may now take centre stage


Sources: Reuters, Xinhua Finance Agency, South China Morning Post

ASEAN nations will now see China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) programme and its Regional Comprehensive Economic Plan (RCEP) as increasingly significant. Without the TPP to support them, they will now compete for investment that the One Belt, One Road programme can deliver.
Discussions over reviving or revising the TPP continue but OBOR offers some degree of certainty. Laos was promised US$6 billion to link its capital Vientiane with China’s Yunnan province by 2020. Work on the Singapore to Kunming line has started. China won the US$5.1 billion contract to build a 150-kilometre rail project in Indonesia.

However, for all the infrastructure benefits that OBOR will provide, the scheme would give China control of land and sea routes, further increasing its influence over the region. It puts ASEAN nations in a difficult position. They need Chinese infrastructure investment but can no longer rely on the US to act as a buffer. As a result, they lose bargaining power and influence.

It represents a fundamental shift. “Before, most Southeast Asian states wanted to benefit from Chinese regional economic initiatives and from American pushback against China,” said Malcolm Cook, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “The second part of this balance is now in question. Hence, the pressure to acquiesce to China diplomatically and on security issues is stronger,” he added.

ASEAN nations may end up as pawns in a bigger power game

While world leaders concentrate on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, Southeast Asian nations risk becoming pawns in a bigger power game. It is a return to old-fashioned politics. Trump’s administration essentially gave China freedom to do as it pleased in the South China Sea, and by extension, ASEAN, because the US needed China to keep the pressure on North Korea.

Now Trump has removed the handbrake, the balance that Loong spoke about becomes much harder to strike. China is the more stable partner as uncertainty surrounds everything coming out of Washington. What trust can ASEAN place in Mike Pence’s assertion that the US, has “unwavering commitment” towards the region?

Yet, at the same time, ASEAN needs to find a way to keep the US onside. ASEAN may welcome recent US “freedom of navigation operations” in the South China Sea. As Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said, “ASEAN is in a precarious position now with the concessions, accommodation and even appeasement with China. If China continues to be shrewd and takes ASEAN on another ride, then ASEAN will be much worse off.”

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #134 on: June 06, 2017, 08:51:46 AM »



[Brief] The uneasy nonperforming loans in China may be the trigger for the next Asian financial crisis

TOPICS:BankLoan FraudNonperforming LoanNPL

JUNE 6, 2017
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Chinese banks may have reported lower nonperforming loan figures than expected. But what lies beneath could be a complicated system that hides the risks of a weakening financial system.

Editorial

Everyone is pretending not to see it, but the Chinese market has been unstable in recent years. Analysts have been sceptical about the reported low non-performing loan ratios “NPL” in recent years.

The NPL of listed Chinese banks for 2016 remained below 1.6%. While NPL increased over the last 5 years, Chinese NPLs were consistently healthier relative to other emerging nations.


Source: S&P
For the year 2016, China’s reported NPL was lower than Singapore. Many questions if the relatively low NPL levels resulted from reclassification of loans as special mention loans. Under the latter classification, special mention loans required fewer provisions than NPLs.

However, these classifications only mask the truth. In recession, these loans will default regardless of their classification. By then, listed banks will have to announce special provisions resulting in aggressively allowances and losses, unexpected.

The challenge is how Xi’s administration will handle this situation. As the central government combats outflow of capital and attempts to regain global confidence in the Chinese economy, one questions if the China Banking Regulatory Commission will work towards forcing banks to correct loan classification process.


Source: S&P
Based on a report by SNL, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd’s “ICBC” NPL of 1.6% was much lower than special mention loans of 4.5% of total loans. ICBC’s special mention loans increased by 2.5% from 2% in 2013. In the same report, Bank of China’s special mention loans grew by 3.1%, a startling figure that remains infrequently reported.

The option of auditing these reporting systems is a tougher one than to simply reengineer the classification process. Perhaps it is time to rethink the need for “special mention loan” classification?

Problem loans is also an issue for smaller Chinese commercial banks as they report default rates of more than 20%. In an FT report, analysts shared that debt levels in China are reaching “epidemic” levels.

BBVA economists Xia Le highlighted that risks in these rural banks are highest, insinuating that these banks will fall in the first instance of trouble.

It was reported in the same article that Liuzhou Bank suffered an unprecedented $4.9bn loan fraud. This amount was a third of the bank’s assets.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #135 on: June 10, 2017, 07:10:53 AM »




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好康
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美食
劲爆!!中国政府落实「中国身份证」让马来西亚出生的华裔均可申请!!
网络红人 2017-06-09 檢舉

 


劲爆!!!落实「中国身份证」马来西亚出生的华裔!

「不管在哪里都是中国人,中国永远是他们的娘家」 - 习近平



 
中国国务院决定在北京中关村启动「华裔卡」试点,立即引来海外华人热议。中国一直不承认双重国籍,而「华裔卡」的出现可绕开这个难题,以解决海外华人在中国生活、工作所遇到的困难,今后海外华人能享有普通中国公民所享有的权益,如投资、置业、子女入学等。

外籍华人在中国生活或工作时,会遇到不少麻烦。他们除了要为申请或延长签证而花费很多时间外,即使是在中国网购车票,或机票改期都会因为没有中国的身份证而无法进行。他们必须亲自到车站或者机场凭自己的护照才能办理。


 



 
持有「华裔卡」人士虽没有中国国籍,没有选举和被选举的政治权利,但是却能够享有普通中国公民所享有的其它权益,如投资、置业、开办银行账户、申请驾照、子女入学等。

不少海外华人大赞「华裔卡」的政策十分便利,更形容该政策为「真实承认双重国籍」,又指华裔卡的试点以及未来双重国籍的放开,有利于在全球化的今天,吸引海外华裔人才、资金、技术回到中国,并增强海外华人的凝聚力。 不过,更多海外华人还是希望当局能开放双重国籍。


 
据了解,中国从2004年以来对外籍人士实行「永久居留证」制度,也称中国「绿卡」。但由于设立的标准过高,控制过严,实际发放数量很少,年均发卡248张。


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #136 on: June 12, 2017, 06:33:49 PM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 12 June 2017 | MYT 5:06 PM
China Development Bank says Moody's China ratings cut has "limited impact"
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/06/01/09/37/corporate-news.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=ACAEABE345BFAA3AAEED42FCF09AE724894B17E8

 
BEIJING: China Development Bank Corp (CDB), one of the country's largest bond issuers, said Moody's Investors Service's downgrade of China's credit ratings has had "limited impact" on fundraising by Chinese companies overseas.

"Funds are relatively abundant in the international market and the supply of high-quality bonds falls short of demand," the state-owned bank said in a statement to Reuters.

"Yields on bonds by Chinese issuers are more attractive than those of other emerging market issuers."

Moody's last month downgraded China's credit ratings for the first time in nearly 30 years, to A1 from Aa3, reflecting its growing concern that China's financial strength is fading amid a ballooning debt pile

CDB, the biggest policy bank in the country, said that China's government has "effectively lowered debt risks" by implementing local government debt swaps, a de-leveraging campaign, and disposing non-performing loans in the banking sector.

The one-notch downgrade in long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings "lacked sufficient estimates about China's supply-side reforms and the impact of stabilising economic growth", CDB said in the statement.

Financial regulators in Hong Kong, Singapore and Europe so far haven't made "substantial adjustment" to regulatory requirements, such as high-quality liquidity assets (HQLA), following the Moody's ratings cut, CDB said. - Reuters

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/12/china-development-bank-says-moodys-china-ratings-cut-has-limited-impact/#tJ64KZA7TvDR1Sdc.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #137 on: June 16, 2017, 06:56:38 AM »





财经商业视频时事国际地产图天下副刊地方体育娱乐言论市场情报
主页 > 国际 > 国际新闻 > 低估中国技术创新美国必将付出代价
低估中国技术创新
美国必将付出代价
948点看 2017年6月15日
 
6中国7亿人每天用移动网络做海量支付,这意味着海量信息。

据英国广播公司(BBC)网站14日报道,中国不仅在电子产品制造方面奋起直追,并且已经在移动支付以及物联网等许多方面领先。


中国的科技巨头华为说,去年12月华为手机销量超过了苹果。

对此许多评论说,这足以令西方竞争者警醒。

此前一段时间里,中国一度被当成仿造西方市场各种产品的技术“山寨大国”,但美国电视网CNBC发表评论说,这种情况正在发生变化。

发明专利数量突破百万

中国智囊学者胡鞍钢表示,中国技术创新正在经历从局部赶超到全面赶超的过程,去年,中国技术创新方面的积累存量实现了质的飞跃,“国内有效发明专利拥有量”首次突破百万,成为继美国和日本之后世界上第三个国内发明专利拥有量超过百万件的国家。

中国欧盟商会最近对欧洲在华公司做了一项调查,60%的在华欧盟公司认为在2020年前中国公司会缩小同欧洲的创新差距,这个报告提醒欧洲公司要小心中国的技术创新挑战。 报告说,这种创新最有可能发生在服务业,在工业界的创新突破需要更长时间。

根据调查,近半数在中国的欧洲公司认为他们的业务在2016年遇到更多困难,而其中70%的公司都是在服务业和建筑业的公司,但在航空和宇航以及民航业的欧洲公司则认为在中国的业务运营并没有大改变。 报道称,中国的技术创新,特别是在电子商务和网络技术方面令外部观察者印象深刻。

CNBC科技通讯记者阿尔琼·克尔珀尔称,除了具有百度、华为、京东商城这类大型技术公司,中国的先进创新还体现在新技术平台运用和客户消费方式上面。

《纽约时报》专栏作者托马斯·弗里德曼认为,美国在创新方面低估了中国,除了中国社会广泛使用无现金支付令人震惊,中国在互联网数据和物联网方面的创新和发展也令人印象深刻。

“在互联网大数据和物联网时代,中国7亿人每天用移动网络做海量支付,这意味着海量信息,搜集这些信息又有助于把握潮流,并能刺激新的人工智能业务的发展。” 弗里德曼称,美国往往把中国的增长归咎于不平等贸易做法,低估了中国的技术创新,美国会为此付出代价。


中国电信商将重金研发5G通讯系统,将领先全球。

中国电信商砸7658亿
建全球最大5G网络

中国三大电信运营商在5G基础设施上的总投入在7年内预计将达到1800亿美元(下同,约7658亿令吉),远远超出2013至2020年他们在4G网络上估计1170亿美元的投入。

据香港《南华早报》12日刊登题为“中国将斥资1800亿美元建全球最大5G移动网络”的报道,杰富瑞投资银行证券分析师爱迪生·李说,这意味着中国移动、中国联通和中国电信的总资本开支相比它们在4G网络上的总投入增长大约48%。

报道称,这也将超过日本的支出,日本在同样的7年内的5G网络支出预计将为460亿美元。

李说:“随着全部三大电信运营商可能从2019年开始投入积极建设,5G网络对中国创新型客户服务和企业服务的影响将是巨大的。”

标志开始新时代

据全球移动通信系统协会说,作为移动通信的最新发展,5G网络将标志着一个新时代的开始,在这个时代网络将适应应用软件的发展,而功能将严格按照用户需求定制。

负责监督制定5G技术IMT-2020标准的联合国机构国际电信联盟表示,即将推出的通用规范将支持每平方公里100万个互联设备、1毫秒延迟以及数据包从一个点到另一个点的时间量、更高的能效和频谱效率,以及高达每秒20吉比特(GB)的峰值数据下载速度。

报道称,作为世界最大移动网络运营商的中国移动3月份宣布从明年开始在中国主要城市建设试点5G网络,并在2020年推出全面的商业服务。

李说,中国移动运营商在5G网络上预计更高的资本支出将受到一系列因素的推动。他说,5G网络最初将在3-5千兆赫波段上,这需要更多的基站以提供与目前的4G网络同样的覆盖范围。

此外,中国三大运营商预计都将迅速推动全国覆盖,其中中国移动很可能在2021年实现这一目标。

杰富瑞投资银行预计,到2022年中国将有5.883亿5G用户,占当年全国手机总用户数的39.9%。

李说:“中国主要的互联网公司,如百度、阿里巴巴和腾讯,将率先在新的5G网络上推出基于4K和8K视频以及增强现实和虚拟现实技术的先进客户服务。”


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #138 on: June 21, 2017, 06:35:08 AM »



周小川:防金融危机
中国不容高杠杆低资本呆账
45点看 2017年6月20日
 
周小川

(陆家嘴20日讯)中国央行行长周小川周二表示,金融不稳定,往往会出大乱子。


要防金融危机,首先要保证金融机构的健康性,高杠杆、低资本、不良贷款等现象均不得宽容。

周小川是在出席2017陆家嘴论坛并发表主旨演讲时,做出上述表述。

中国经历了多年的经济高增长。在增长放缓后,许多之前高增长掩盖的风险逐渐暴露,包括不良贷款、资金空转等,在此背景下,中国当局强调把防范金融风险放到更重要的位置。而推进去杠杆,引导资金流向实体经济是其中一个重要方面。

周小川称,不开放、不竞争往往纵容了低标准。

周小川表示,现在,国内很多金融机构都已经“走出去”,适应了国际竞争,特别是风险管理、定价、反洗钱都有了实质性变化。

已有五家金融机构跻身全球系统重要性金融机构,成为资本金充足、经营稳健的市场化经营主体。

同时,金融市场的发展和健康化已受到国际债市、新兴市场股票指数机构的关注。这些均说明,金融服务业是竞争性服务业,受益于对外开放,还要进一步扩大开放。


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Re: CHINA
« Reply #139 on: July 17, 2017, 11:39:28 AM »



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 17 July 2017 | MYT 10:22 AM
China second quarter GDP grows 6.9% year on year, beats expectations
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/07/17/02/25/china-gdp.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=1DBD67AAD905DF0AA0A33B62BB26F6F6587540AA
A general view of a shopping mall under construction in Chongqing, China July 13, 2017. - Reuters
A general view of a shopping mall under construction in Chongqing, China July 13, 2017. - Reuters
 
BEIJING: China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, faster than expected and in line with the first quarter's growth.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the April-June quarter, slightly slower than the previous quarter's robust 6.9 percent pace.

The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year's actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

Many analysts expect the world's second-largest economy

to lose steam later in the year as policy measures to rein in red-hot housing prices and a rapid build-up in debt take a greater toll on growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June grew 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, compared with growth of 1.3 percent in January-March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Analysts had expected quarterly growth would quicken to 1.7 percent. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy , Markets

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/17/china-second-quarter-gdp-grows-6dot9-percent-year-on-year-beats-expectations/#0wJXjEpQEbY4wwTO.99

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #140 on: July 17, 2017, 12:32:18 PM »




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中国次季GDP增长6.9%胜预期
中国上海
財经 最后更新 2017年07月17日 11时54分
中国次季GDP增长6.9%胜预期

0分享
中国国家统计局週一公佈,2017年次季国內生產总值(GDP)较上年同期增长6.9%,与一季度持平,胜於市场预期。

统计局公佈的数据还显示,第二季度GDP环比增长1.7%。

《华尔街日报》报导,经济分析员预期第二季度中国经济同比增长6.8%。

今年一季度中国GDP较上年同期增长6.9%,高於市场预期,並创出六个季度以来新高。

继续阅读,请往下滑

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2016年中国GDP增长6.7%。中国政府设定的当年GDP增长目標为6.5%-7%。

2015年中国GDP增长6.9%,为25年来最低年度增速。

2017年中国政府设定的GDP增长目標为6.5%左右,並要求在实际工作中爭取更好结果。

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #141 on: July 18, 2017, 12:15:24 PM »



Highlight
China is said to tell banks to lower returns on wealth products
Bloomberg
/
Bloomberg

July 18, 2017 11:52 am MYT
-A+A
SHANGHAI (July 18): China’s banking regulator told some lenders to lower the rates they offer on wealth-management products, people familiar with the matter said, as officials move to reduce financial risks and stimulate the economy.

Banks, including some big lenders, received the order from the China Banking Regulatory Commission earlier this month, said the people, asking not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak publicly. The requirement applies to on-balance sheet wealth-management products, known as WMPs, according to one of the people.

Banks have lifted yields on wealth-management products to the highest level in at least 17 months, with returns reaching an annualized 4.66% by the end of June, data from Chengdu-based PY Standard showed. That has resulted in higher costs for a key source of funding for lending and investment, at a time when the nation’s benchmark one-year deposit rate stood at 1.5%.

The CBRC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #142 on: September 14, 2017, 01:52:24 PM »





China's economy cools again
Bloomberg
/
Bloomberg

September 14, 2017 13:31 pm MYT
-A+A
THE pace of China’s economic expansion unexpectedly cooled further last month after a lackluster July, as factory output, investment and retail sales all slowed.

Key Points

Industrial output rose 6.0% from a year earlier in August, versus a median projection of 6.6% and July’s 6.4%. That’s the slowest pace this year.

Retail sales expanded 10.1% from a year earlier, versus a projection of 10.5% and 10.4% in July, also the slowest reading in 2017.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 7.8% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2016, compared with a forecast 8.2% rise. That’s the slowest since 1999.

Big Picture

The continued cooling of the world’s second-largest economy suggests that efforts to rein in credit expansion and reduce excess capacity are hitting home, ahead of the key 19th Party Congress in October. Still, producer-price inflation and a manufacturing sentiment gauge both exceeded estimates earlier this month, signaling some resilience.

The Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier gains to fall 0.2%.

Economist Takeaways

"Today’s data shows that the economy clearly already peaked in the first half of this year," said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd in Hong Kong. "Recently both property and exports are slowing down and that’s why the whole economy is slowing."

"Regulatory tightening in the financial sector is putting a squeeze on highly indebted firms reliant on shadow bank financing," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "And officials are unlikely to take their foot off the regulatory brakes any time soon. Growth therefore looks set to weaken further into year end, as regulators step up their campaign to rein in shadow banking."

"That’s still on track to a gradual moderation," Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "The government has been closing capacity, especially those that don’t meet environmental standards, and enforcement this year has been much stricter in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress."

Bloomberg Intelligence

"August’s activity data points to momentum in China’s economy starting to ebb," Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a report. "The economy faces significant headwinds, with a continued moderate slowdown expected into the final months of the year and beyond. Slowing growth is also an early test of the government’s commitment to deleveraging."

The Details

Output of cement, coking coal fell by 3.7% and 5.3% respectively
Production of new-energy vehicles rose by 56.4% in August, after climbing 48.6% in July
Steel production rose to a record
Property development investment rose 7.9% from a year earlier in the first eight months
Private fixed asset investment increased 6.4% from a year earlier in the first eight months
Economic fundamentals haven’t changed in the short term and property development investment remains stable, NBS spokeswoman Liu Aihua said at a briefing
August surveyed jobless rate in 31 cities remains below 5%, Liu said
Infrastructure investment slowed to 19.8% in the first eight months, from 20.9% in the first seven months

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #143 on: October 01, 2017, 07:19:23 PM »




Xi: Study capitalism but keep Marxism
ASEAN/EAST ASIA
Sunday, 1 Oct 2017

BEIJING: Communist Party members should study contemporary capitalism but must never deviate from Marxism, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, offering a clear signal there will be no weakening of party control weeks ahead of a key Congress opening.

Speaking at a study session of the Politburo, one of the party’s elite ruling bodies, Xi said that while times are changing and society is developing, the basic tenets of Marxism remain true, state news agency Xinhua said on Friday.

“If we deviate from or abandon Marxism, our party would lose its soul and direction,” Xi said.

“On the fundamental issue of upholding the guiding role of Marxism, we must maintain unswerving resolve, never wavering at any time or under any circumstances.”

Xi said the party should better integrate the basic tenets of Marxism with the “reality of contemporary China and learn from the achievements of other civilisations to create and develop Marxism”, Xinhua said.

“Xi also asked Party members to study contemporary capitalism, its essence and patterns,” the report added, without elaborating.

China has transformed its economy since it began landmark reforms in the late 1970s, and is now the world’s second largest economy.

Private firms are now supported and encouraged but the state-owned sector remains a major driver of growth and investment, though some industries like iron and steel are suffering from worryingly high levels of over-capacity.

Xi said the party must continuously develop socialism with Chinese characteristics, continuously enhance China’s comprehensive national strength and fully demonstrate the advantages of China’s socialist system.

This month’s party Congress, which opens on Oct 18, will see Xi further cementing his grip on power and usher in a new generation of senior leaders. — Reuters

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
China

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #144 on: October 01, 2017, 07:22:53 PM »




时事聚焦丨《大国风云》第一章:“三打”特朗普·乱放“嘴炮”,被多国群殴!

2017-09-30 棋胜 新闻早餐

“三打”特朗普
来自新闻早餐
00:0008:36

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点击上方音频收听
2016年11月,美国共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普在总统选举中获胜,当选为美国第45任总统。特朗普是个口无遮拦的人,什么话都敢说,“大嘴”给他带来无数的争议,也把他送上了总统的宝座。当选总统以后,特朗普丝毫没有收敛,在外交中继续使用他的“嘴上功夫”,这不,还没正式上任他就提出了一个令人震惊的观点,“一中”政策在谈判之列,很快,他的麻烦来了……

作者:棋胜老师,资深宏观经济研究专家,国际问题专家,THLDL咨询集团创始合伙人。

大国风云
(一)“三打”特朗普
 



1、大国的特质

分析国际形势,首先要看背景。任何一件大事的发生都有其国际背景,如果不把背景搞明白,光凭新闻报道的那点内容很难分析出有价值的东西。

举个例子,两国领导人会谈,随便一聊就是几个小时,会谈的内容如果全部用文字写出来,怎么也有几万字,可新闻报道一般不超过两千字,仅凭这点新闻报道能分析出会谈的全貌吗?不可能的,太多有价值的东西根本没有报道。

那么,应该如何解决这个问题呢?背景分析。只要知道了局势发展的背景,很多藏在新闻文字之下的内容完全可以推理出来。举个例子,2008年6月,越南爆发金融危机,越共总书记紧急访华,他来干什么?肯定是求援的,这是当时越南面临的形势决定的,不用看新闻报道也能猜出来。

要做背景分析,必须先清楚各国的实力和现状。为了便于以后的分析,先为大家科普一下这方面的知识,这是时事分析的起点。

在这个世界上,国家根据实力可以分为三类:全球性大国,地区性大国,小国。全球性大国指的是具备全球影响力的国家,地区性大国是在本地区具有相当影响力的国家,小国没有什么影响力,只能跟随大国的脚步起舞。

那么,什么样的国家算是全球性大国呢?

现在是工业化大生产时代,资源和能源是生产的基础,只要能控制住大部分资源和能源就能控制所有的国家,巧妇难为无米之炊嘛。发展经济需要的资源种类很多,在地球上的分布也极为分散,想垄断很困难,能源就不一样了,种类不多,最有价值的只有石油一种。石油的主产区在中东地区,探明储量占全球总储量的60%以上,如此一来,只要能把中东地区的石油控制住了,就能控制全世界,所以,对中东事务的掌控能力和发言权就成为衡量一个国家算不算是全球性大国的核心标准。

为了控制中东地区的石油,各大国都在中东拼死搏杀。二战以前,英国和法国平分中东,二战以后,美国和苏联联手把英法两国挤出中东,开始了新一轮两强争霸,苏联解体以后,美国一超独大,开始执行独霸中东的战略。海湾战争以后,美国在中东地区只剩下三个敌人,伊拉克,伊朗和叙利亚,只要能把这三个国家拿下来,美国的目标就可以实现了。非常巧合的是,伊朗和叙利亚都是什叶派国家,伊拉克也是什叶派人口占多数,如果再加上黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡赛武装这两支什叶派武装力量,就是一条完整的“什叶派之弧”。彻底粉碎这条“什叶派之弧”,全面控制中东,就是美国全球战略的核心内容,从克林顿到小布什,再到奥巴马和特朗普,美国的目标从来没有改变过,改变的只是手段。
 


2、大国实力的消涨

下面分析一下世界各主要国家的实力变化情况,先看美国,如果从“9•11”事件算起的话,美国的全球战略经历了四个阶段:

第一阶段,进攻。2001年,美国占领阿富汗,2003年,美国占领伊拉克,同年在格鲁吉亚颜色革命成功,2004年,美国在乌克兰颜色革命成功,2005年,美国在吉尔吉斯斯坦颜色革命成功,不过,美国在乌兹别克斯坦的颜色革命失败了,这次失败对美国来说是个转折点,攻势从此戛然而止。在这个阶段,伊拉克是美国全球战略的战略重心。

第二阶段,相持。美国在乌兹别克斯坦失利以后,中俄两国开始联手对抗美国,在2005年的上海合作组织峰会上伊朗被吸收为上合观察员,上合要求美军撤出在中亚的军事基地,美军只好从乌兹别克斯坦打包走人。2006年6月,伊朗核问题六方会谈成形,美国的全球战略遭到强力阻击。2007年初,小布什增兵三万绥靖伊拉克局势,无奈次贷危机随即爆发,小布什不得不把这三万人又撤了出来。2008年,美国爆发金融危机,实在没钱支撑美军在伊拉克继续烧钱,只得开始从伊拉克全面撤军。2010年6月,联合国通过伊朗核问题1929号决议,美国在伊朗核问题的较量中遭遇重创,从此放弃了通过联合国制裁伊朗的思路,转而逼迫韩国、日本和欧盟等盟友对伊朗进行制裁。2010年8月,美国从伊拉克撤出全部战斗部队,美国的“反恐”战略走向失败。在这个阶段,伊朗是美国全球战略的战略重心。

第三阶段,防守。2011年5月,拉登被杀,美国开始从阿富汗撤军,从此以后,美国全球战略的重心变成了叙利亚,叙利亚内战模式启动。让奥巴马失望的是,他花了整整一个任期居然没能搞定这个小不点,到他下台的时候叙利亚居然在土耳其和俄罗斯的担保下停火了,真是气煞寡人。2013年秋天,习总书记提出“一带一路”战略,奥巴马打开地图一看,阿富汗正处于“一带”中的桥头堡位置,如果美军从阿富汗全部撤出“一带一路”将畅通无阻,为了干扰“一带一路”美军必须楔在阿富汗,奥巴马只好调整2014年从阿富汗完成撤军的计划,改成对阿富汗进行少量增兵。青山遮不住,毕竟东流去,加上这仨瓜俩枣就想改变阿富汗局势吗?如果改变不了不就是多一点炮灰吗?2015年7月,伊朗核问题达成协议,各方解除对伊朗的制裁,美国在伊朗核问题的较量中彻底失败。

第四阶段,溃败。现在回头看看那条“什叶派之弧”,伊朗成为中东地区最强势的地区大国,伊拉克是什叶派亲伊朗政权,如果萨达姆还活着,至少是反伊朗的,叙利亚的阿萨德政权摇而不倒,什叶派反美势力不但没有削弱,反而变强了,这些年的仗不是白打了吗?小布什在位的时候,美国对中东事务的影响力最大,想打谁就打谁,奥巴马上台以后变成了想骂谁就骂谁,现在特朗普当家,想吓谁就吓谁。

在中东地区有影响力的地区大国有六个:以色列,埃及,伊朗,土耳其,沙特,叙利亚,其他国家都是打酱油的。小布什时期,以色列、埃及、土耳其和沙特全部亲美,伊朗和叙利亚都被美国压得很惨,伊拉克被美军占领,美国完全掌控着中东局势。

现在,埃及已经跟美国离心离德,土耳其跟美国面和心不和,伊朗一不高兴就跳着脚骂美国,叙利亚更是与美国不共戴天,只有以色列和沙特还没有抛弃美国,但是,沙特是个没有能力办大事的国家,对付个胡塞武装都打成那个烂样子,别的事情就不要指望它了,以色列是个识时务的国家,看到美国衰弱以后也开始给自己找后路,在巴勒斯坦出手远不如以前强硬,中东局势对美国而言已经完全失控。

美国在中东辛苦了16年,什么都没有得到,除了高筑的债台和低迷的经济以外,这就是美国的现实。特朗普的竞选口号是“让美国再次伟大”,不就是说美国已经不伟大了吗?特朗普在大选中获得304票,希拉里只有227票,优势非常明显,如果特朗普的“大嘴”不能引起美国人共鸣的话,这是不可能做到的。很多美国人在大声反对特朗普,有没有支持他呢?当然有,只不过支持他的人不爱出声,大选之前进行民意调查的结果无一不是希拉里大胜,结果呢?希拉里被那群不爱发声的人给选下去了。

2017年1月20日,特朗普在就职演说中这样描述了现在的美国:“城市中的母子深陷于贫穷之中,废弃的工厂像墓碑一样遍布全美,学校充斥着权钱交易,年轻可爱的学生无法得到应有的知识,犯罪、帮派和毒品夺走了太多美国人的生命,也夺走了美国太多未能发挥的潜力……”在特朗普眼里,美国是一个哀鸿遍野的国家,他是在危言耸听吗?当然不是。特朗普是一个72岁的美国老人,又是美国的总统,他对美国的了解不比任何人少,他上台以后为什么会折腾出那么多稀奇古怪的花样来?美国的现状把他逼的。诚如特朗普在就职演说中所说的,他要夺回属于美国的一切!

美国这些年经历了一起一落,俄罗斯的情况也差不多。2005年以前,俄罗斯的全球战略以防守为主,乌兹别克颜色革命以后,俄罗斯开始与中国联手反击美国。2008年,俄格冲突爆发,俄军支解格鲁吉亚,事先信誓旦旦要支援格鲁吉亚的美军没敢采取任何行动,格鲁吉亚总统萨卡什维利情绪失控,当着亿万电视观众的面在镜头前嚼起了自己的领带,成为全球笑柄。2010年,俄罗斯在乌克兰反颜色革命成功,亲俄的亚努科维奇上台,普京在独联体国家再下一城,只可惜,普京的好日子到此为止。2011年,俄罗斯在中东地区的唯一盟友叙利亚开始内乱,普京却无力帮助巴沙尔稳定形势。2014年,亚努科维奇下台,普京被迫出兵克里米亚,乌克兰内战爆发,但是,接踵而来的美欧制裁和油价爆跌把俄罗斯经济打入萧条之中,卢布崩盘,俄罗斯开始过苦日子。“伊斯兰国”崛起以后,叙利亚政府军难以抗衡,为了保住自己的大国地位俄罗斯不得不在2015年9月咬着牙出兵空袭“伊斯兰国”,明明没钱了,还得花钱打仗,这不是要人命吗?进入2017年,俄罗斯的联邦稳定基金花完了,国家经济稳定都成了大问题,实事求是的说,普京的日子远比特朗普艰难。

俄罗斯不好过,欧盟还不如俄罗斯。美国入侵伊拉克以前,法国和德国坚持反对美国出兵,但它们挡不住,为了不让美国独吞中东,它们就把伊朗核问题搞了出来,干扰美国的“反恐”战略,伊核三方会谈开始。借着三方会谈的台面和中国、俄罗斯的呼应,美国不得不在伊拉克问题上连续作出让步,先把主权移交给伊拉克临时政府,后来又选出了亲伊朗的什叶派政权。2007年,次贷危机爆发,美国被迫重启巴以和谈,与欧盟分权。2008年,科索沃独立,法国总统萨科齐推出“地中海联盟”计划,开始挑战美元霸权,2009年,《里斯本条约》通过,欧盟政治一体化加速,只可惜,欧盟的好日子到此为止。2010年,希腊债务危机爆发,“地中海联盟”计划停止,欧盟挑战美国只坚持了两年,昙花一现。2011年,“欧猪五国”债务危机全面爆发,重压之下的欧盟只好支持美国推翻巴沙尔政权。2015年,难民危机爆发,恐怖袭击也开始在欧元区国家轮番上演,欧盟开启内乱模式。2016年,英国脱欧,欧盟走上解体的道路。

再说一下日本。日本不是一个全球性大国,只能算是个地区性大国,它对中东事务没有任何发言权。日本经济最繁荣的时候是上世纪80年代,“广场协议”以后日本经济被攻击,1991年经济泡沫崩盘,克林顿上台以后继续推高日元汇率,一直到1995年5月。昂贵的日元摧毁了日本企业的竞争力,日本企业为了活下去只好逃离日本到海外设厂,东南亚成为日本最重要的海外制造业基地,日本经济全面空心化。1997年,东南亚金融危机爆发,当时的东南亚已是一片日元区,就这么悄无声息地被美国摧毁了,日本用日元计价的GDP最高的一年就在1997年,从此以后,日本经济一蹶不振。在地区事务层面上,朝鲜核问题刚刚开始闹的时候,日本政府还有一点发言权,金融危机爆发以后,日本人说话就没人听了,现在朝鲜时不时地往日本人头上发射导弹,日本军方根本不敢拦截,不过还好,日本民众情绪稳定。
 


3、进击的中国

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #145 on: October 01, 2017, 07:23:55 PM »




3、进击的中国

美国、俄罗斯、欧盟和日本全都在走下坡路,一个比一个惨,从一个胜利走向另一个胜利的国家也就只有中国了。中国这些年都是干了什么事呢?我们按地区盘点一下。

朝鲜半岛。半岛局势特别有意思,小布什刚上台那会儿,把朝鲜列为“邪恶轴心”国家,后来又说朝鲜是“暴政前哨”,威胁要对朝鲜进行先发制人的核打击,只要金正日稍微让美国有点不满意,美国就放话说已经制定好了对朝鲜的作战计划。十年以后,金正恩上台,开始为他爹报仇,不仅威胁美国说要用核弹毁了白宫,还制定好了打击关岛的作战计划。幸亏当年小布什没说要解放朝鲜,不然的话金元帅非得号召朝鲜人民军把美国那帮红脖子给解放了不可。

从朝鲜的表现可以很明显地看出来,半岛局势经历了两个阶段:2003年8月,朝鲜核问题六方会谈第一次会议在北京举行,中美相持,不过我们是主场。2006年10月,朝鲜进行第一次核试验,核试验以前美国给朝鲜划下红线,不准爆,朝鲜的未来跟核弹不能共存,朝鲜不相信,就试了一下,发现是可以共存的;美国又给朝鲜划下第二条红线,不准进行核扩散,2013年2月,伊朗方面传出消息,他们以数千万美元的代价交换到了参观朝鲜核试验的机会,美国的红线再次被踩;2017年4月,美国明确表示,希望和平解决朝核问题,不会为朝鲜设定红线,也不寻求冲突或政权更替。完了,红线踩没了。

钓鱼岛。钓鱼岛问题是中日关系的代表性问题。2010年以前,中国从不在钓鱼岛问题上主动跟日本发生摩擦,2010年9月,钓鱼岛撞船事件发生,中国渔政船开始对钓鱼岛进行不定期巡航,中日角力开始。2012年9月,日本政府把钓鱼岛国有化,中国随即公布钓鱼岛及部分附属岛屿坐标,向联合国提交东海部分海域大陆架划界案,并且全面加强了在钓鱼岛的军事力量布署,定期巡航钓鱼岛。2013年11月,中国划定东海防空识别区,对钓鱼岛实现了实际控制,从那以后,中国军舰开始绕着日本划圈,还时不时地进日本领海逛两圈。不能不承认,日本人的适应能力特别强,外务省很快就习惯了中国的做法,很多时候连抗议二字都懒得说了。

为什么钓鱼岛撞船事件发生在2010年?因为那一年中国的GDP超过日本,中国人做事都是有计划的。同样的道理,大家可以感觉到的中国在外交上明显强硬是从2014年开始的,为什么是这一年呢?去查查中美两国按购买力平价计算的GDP就知道了。

南海。中国在南海动手比钓鱼岛还要晚一点。2012年4月,黄岩岛事件爆发,中国开始在南海发力。为什么是2012年?因为这一年“辽宁号”航母交付使用,南海的很多岛屿离大陆太远,没有航母很难实际控制,所以我们只能等待,无论做什么事情都需要条件不是?黄岩岛事件爆发以后,中国成立三沙市,开始在南海填岛。2016年10月,菲律宾总统杜特尔特访华,南海的反华急先锋反水了,三个月后,美国总统特朗普宣布退出TPP,美国“重返东南亚”失败。2017年8月,“南海行为准则”框架在东盟外长会议上通过,中国成为南海的主人。

“南海行为准则”的全称应该叫做“中国规定的南海行为准则”,以前相关国家不愿意接受,就在美国的挑拨下找中国的麻烦,经过一番沧海桑田般的填岛工程以后,这些国家发现,中国居然具备了大自然才有的移山填海的神力,于是决定向大自然低头,接受这个行为准则。

台海。从李登辉到阿扁,台独分子一直在给北京找麻烦,搞得北京很被动。2005年3月,中国出台《反分裂国家法》,给台独分子划下红线,台独必打,当时美国的军事力量全都被陷伊拉克和阿富汗动不了,实在没有能力保护台湾,只好安排连(战)宋(楚瑜)登陆,缓和两岸关系。2006年,中国加入伊核六方会谈,美国为了牵制中国,再次激化台湾问题,一直到2008年“3·22”入联公投,中国以巨大的战争决心压住了台独分子的冒险之举,金融危机爆发以后,两岸实现“大三通”,台海局势全面缓和。“英文菜菜子”上台以后重新开始挑事,结果被收拾得不轻。2016年12月,轰6-K绕台飞行一周,据外媒报道,六爷当时带了核弹。过去江湖上一直有“宁可台湾不长草”的传言,看来并非空穴来风,六爷绕台之后,台独分子就老实多了。

中国的周边局势关乎稳定,要成为全球性大国还得在中东努力才行。中国在中东都是干了什么呢?一起看一下。

2006年6月,中国加入伊朗核问题六方会谈,再次成为世界级玩家。四年以后,联合国安理会通过1929号决议,美国放弃通过安理会制裁伊朗,迫使美国改变计划的国家正是中国。从这时起,每次伊核谈判之前美国人一定要先跟中国沟通,只要中国不点头,伊核会谈肯定没有进展。

2012年3月,叙利亚各方宣布,接受联合国特使安南提出的“叙利亚问题六点建议”,实现停火,安南的“六点建议”是中国提出的“叙利亚问题六点主张”的翻版,促成这次停火的也是中国,当时朝鲜在半岛上玩命地折腾,奥巴马受不了,就求中国帮忙压一压,作为交换条件,叙利亚就停火了。在这个世界上谁能管得了朝鲜?在中国不想管的时候,谁都管不了。这次停火标志着中国具备了掌控叙利亚局势的能力。

叙利亚停火以后,中国就转身去忙黄岩岛和钓鱼岛的事情去了,叙利亚是俄罗斯的地盘,我们不能越俎代疱不是?中国这边刚一撒手,那边胡拉镇惨案就发生了,叙利亚重启战争模式。俄罗斯真是没实力了,自己的小兄弟都保护不了,你看谁敢动朝鲜?

在叙利亚问题上,中国和俄罗斯的立场稍有差别,俄罗斯是死保阿萨德政权,如果逊尼派的人上了台俄罗斯在中东的影响力就归零了,中国不是这样,逊尼派跟中国的关系也不差,中国要阻止的是西方国家直接出手颠覆阿萨德政权,如果是叙利亚人民抛弃阿萨德政权,中国不会阻止,中国在联合国七次投出否决票,只是为了阻止西方国家出手颠覆阿萨德政权。不准大国干涉中国友好国家的内政,这是中国的规矩。

2015年7月,联合国解除对伊朗的制裁,伊朗总统鲁哈尼特意对中国表示感谢。一个月后,苏伊士运河扩修成功,习总书记派特使参加了新运河的开通仪式。这条运河的工期原定三年,总统塞西下令,一年之内必须完成,工程就提前完成了。塞西为什么要这么着急地搞这个工程呢?对接“一带一路”的中国是苏伊士运河的最大使用国。工程是提前完成了,费用却翻了倍,为了跟中国拉关系塞西付出的代价不小。新运河开通以后,塞西受邀来京,参加“9·3”大阅兵,中埃关系,可见一斑。埃及原本是美国在中东地区的第三号盟友,仅次于以色列和沙特,穆巴拉克和穆尔西先后倒台以后,埃及政坛上的人,除了反美的,就是更反美的,美国最擅长的就是给自己制造敌人,这个绝活一般人学不会。

2016年11月,中国和伊朗签署共同防御协议,设立总参谋部联合委员会,伊朗成为中国继朝鲜和巴基斯坦之后的第三个铁杆盟友。

中国在中东干到今天,影响力到底有多大呢?我们来盘点一下:

伊朗是中国的铁杆,坚决反美;叙利亚阿萨德政权为了能够存在下去,不得不坚决反美;土耳其和埃及都在努力向中国靠拢,跟美国面和心不和;沙特和以色列是美国的铁杆,但这两个国家一直在努力跟中国发展关系,以色列跟中国的自贸谈判已经进行到第二轮了,沙特跟中国的关系比以色列还要好一点;伊拉克受控于伊朗和美国,跟中国的关系也不错,中国从伊拉克拿到的大油田最多,“美国打伊拉克是为了石油,最后获利的却是中石油”这是不争的事实。在中东的六个地区大国当中,美国只剩下两个铁杆,另外四个关系都不好;中国有一个铁杆,五个好朋友;俄罗斯只有叙利亚一个铁杆,跟伊朗和埃及的关系还算不错,剩下三个都很不怎么样;欧盟一个铁杆都没有。盘点的结果可能把很多人吓一跳,中国居然已经超过美国成了中东局势的主导者,中国成了世界头号大国!

幸福是不是来得太突然了?
 


4、初次交手

特朗普当选以后,美国的全球战略已经崩溃,为了能在中东挽回局面,美国必须搞点明堂出来牵制一下中国,不然美国在中东什么事都干不成。

过去,美国对付中国的牌有四张:东海(日本),台海(台独),南海,疆独和藏独。到2016年底,这四张牌废了三张:日本被中国的军事力量压住,东海局势被中国掌控;疆独和藏独在国内的有生力量基本被消灭,没有能力搞大动作了;“南海仲裁案”之后,又发生了新加坡装甲车被扣事件,南海局势对美国极为不利。杜特尔特想倒向中国,为了交一份投名状就大骂奥巴马是“婊子养的”。是谁给了杜特尔特胆子呢?朝鲜金大元帅。近20年来,朝鲜一直在为世界各国做一个榜样,就是只要你跟中国的关系足够好,美国是可以随便骂的,朝鲜如此,伊朗如此,委内瑞拉也如此。杜特尔特大着胆子试了一把以后发现,果真如此,爽!接着就把美国上上下下全骂了一遍,老子忍你们很久了。中国很想希望杜特尔特能变成东南亚的查韦斯,只是不知道能不能如愿。

在如此不利的情况下,为了能在东亚搞出点动静出来,美国只能打一打台独牌试试了,只不过由于当年的“入联公投”打猛了,现在按照一般的打法也打不出力量来,于是特朗普开始玩邪的,也许真能乱拳打死老师傅呢?

2016年12月2日,特朗普与蔡英文通电话,开始试探着突破“一中”原则。中国在原则问题上一向是非常敏感的,外交部长王毅马上出来警告美国:“一个中国原则是中美关系健康发展的基石,我们不希望这一政治基础受到任何干扰和破坏。”中美两国能够建交,基础就是美国承认“世界上只有一个中国,台湾是中国的一部分”,不仅美国,任何一个国家与中国建交都必须坚持这条原则,否则一边凉快去,爷不伺候。

在对美国进行强烈警告的同时,中国在美国最关心的叙利亚问题上出手了。12月5日,中国和俄罗斯联手否决了安理会关于叙利亚阿勒颇人道局势的决议,这个决议是在美国等西方国家的支持下提出的。在此以前,阿勒颇的反政府武装被叙利亚政府军打得很惨,美国想用短暂的停火来给反政府武装补充弹药、巩固阵地,如果这个决议通过了,叙利亚政府军再想收回阿勒颇就困难多了。

美国也知道,直接说停火是为了帮助反对派很难开口,于是找了个理由,“人道主义救援”。阿勒颇一直在打仗,很多平民都快饿死了,还有一些生命垂危的病人,急需药物救命,为了拯救这些无辜的百姓,阿勒颇必须暂时停火七天,多么高尚的借口!只可惜,这种小把戏只能糊弄不明真相的吃瓜群众,糊弄中国,开玩笑吗?阿勒颇本来没有战争,是谁带来的战争?不把那些人消灭掉,阿勒颇怎么可能重现和平?直接否掉!

中国的否决票拍出来以后奥巴马就急了:我都要下台了,叙利亚还没搞定,让我如何对得起大美利坚帝国的列祖列宗啊,你特朗普轻飘飘一个电话废了我四年的心血,特朗普,你是我祖宗!没办法,赶紧想办法补救吧,于是乎,白宫十天之内连续三次重申,美国坚定奉行一中政策,海枯石烂不变心!

当官的人都要背前任的锅,这是没办法的事情,比如奥巴马,2009年接手的是小布什留下的烂摊子,次贷危机加金融危机,百年不遇的麻烦都让奥巴马遇上了,可要说替自己的继任者背锅,这还真是稀罕,不过奥巴马中奖了,他上辈子绝对欠了特朗普的。美国人最近25年选出了四位总统:拉链常开克林顿,智商欠费小布什,双料锅王奥巴马,推特治国特朗普,都是人才,没有这四位,美国到不了今天。

在这里还得补充一个背景材料,就是中国对叙利亚政府提供军事支持的情况。2010年,在叙利亚乱局开始之前,叙利亚政府未雨绸缪,跟中国签订了10亿美元的武器购买合同,而且付了全款,中国呢,一直拖着不给发货,一拖就是五年,这要是在淘宝上开店,妥妥的差评。中国为什么不发货呢?从表面上看,是美国和沙特不同意,其实呢,呵呵。“伊斯兰国”崛起以后,叙利亚政府军被打得很惨,为了保住阿萨德政权,俄罗斯空军在2015年9月加入了战场。但是,俄罗斯的日子很难过,在美国和欧盟的联手制裁下缺钱缺得要死,没办法,普京只好同意俄罗斯向中国出口原油改用人民币结算,于是中国在2015年11月中旬一次性给俄罗斯打去了一年的石油预付款,972亿人民币,中俄经济合作又上一个新台阶。普京同学如此顾全大局,我们还好意思不给叙利亚发货吗?巴沙尔的事情,就是我们的事情,巴沙尔的需求,就是我们的追求,巴沙尔要什么武器,我们就发什么武器,“石油人民币”,真是好东西!

中国的军火发过去以后叙利亚政府军高兴了,盼星星盼月亮终于把你给盼来了,等他们把这些武器用上了以后才发现,太适合在阿勒颇打巷战了,这是谁造的呀,怎么这么好用呢?中国给发了一堆什么玩艺呢?简单盘点一下:

勇士军车。以前,叙利亚政府军都是用俄罗斯的军用卡车运人,俄罗斯的车大,一辆车至少能拉20人,运输效率很高,就是特别容易被反政府武装的反坦克导弹和火箭筒攻击,一不小心就被一窝端了,中国的勇士军车很小,一车就拉三四个人,目标小,行动灵活,还可以做机动的机枪火力点,用它运兵伤亡率大幅下降。

M99半自动狙击步枪。这个枪的射击精度高、射程远、威力大,在500米开外能击穿15mm的钢板。在阿勒颇巷战中,反政府武装喜欢在楼房的墙上掏出小洞作为射击孔,M99可直接穿透墙壁,把躲在墙后面的敌人击毙,这也是打巷战的称手家伙。

85式重机枪。12.7毫米的子弹可轻易拆倒任何坚固的墙体,能帮助叙利亚政府军清除躲藏在建筑物内的敌人,绝对的巷战利器。除了这些以外,中国还给送过去了ZU-23-2遥控武器站系统、防空机枪、56式冲锋枪、CQ-A自动步枪、87式榴弹发射器、W-99型82毫米速射迫击炮和63式107火箭炮等武器。另外,考虑到阿勒颇久战不决也不是个事,中国又派了个顾问团过去。中国顾问过去以后,叙利亚政府军很快改变了战法,围三阙一,穿插分割,集中优势兵力打歼灭战,几个月下来,阿勒颇局势就明朗化了。阿勒颇是叙利亚的经济中心,相当于中国的上海,对阿萨德政权非常重要。

特朗普当选以后,欧盟为了跟美国加强一下统战工作就在2016年11月14日通过了新一轮对叙利亚政权的制裁名单,中国一看,这可不行,你这不是要砸我“石油人民币”的场子吗?中国当天就向叙利亚政府提供了7000万美元的经济援助,理由嘛,人道主义。人道主义就是一个筐,什么都能往里装。中国提供援助以后普京也来了精神,11月15日,“库兹涅佐夫”号航母开始参与在叙利亚的空袭行动,这是俄罗斯海军史上首次有航母参与作战行动。为什么见到中国的援助普京才下决心动用航母呢?派航母参战的确可以提高作战效率,可他那个航母年纪大了,性能不怎么样,经常黑烟滚滚,打起仗来支撑不了几天,如果中国不支持,一打持久战他那个航母就废了,中国的援助派出以后,普京知道这个仗很快能打赢,才下了决心让航母参战,实际的情况是,50天以后战事结束,“库兹涅佐夫”就赶紧回国维修去了。唉,普京大帝的决心需要中国来下,离了中国,俄罗斯现在什么都不是了。

中国给叙利亚7000万美元援助多不多呢?提前五年收了人家10亿美元的预付款,就算不用来投资仅仅是把这笔钱存进银行收利息,大额存款利息高,按5%计算,五年下来2.5亿美元,这一次给人家7000万,以后再援助三次都不赔本,还能净赚四回好名声,这么会精打细算过日子的政府上你哪找去啊?
 
5、二次打脸

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #146 on: October 01, 2017, 07:25:06 PM »




5、二次打脸



也许是因为有人替他背着锅,特朗普丝毫没有感觉到压力。

12月11日,特朗普在接受美国福克斯电视台采访时说,美国要承认“一个中国”政策只有一个前提,这就是中国在贸易和其他议题上做出让步。特朗普正式开始挑战“一中”原则。特朗普跟中国摊牌了,只是不知道美军有没有胆量跟中国动手呢?试试才知道吧。

12月15日,中国海军在南海扣留了一艘美国无人水下潜航器。根据五角大楼官员的说法,事情发生在离菲律宾苏比克湾港口100英里的地方,当时美国“鲍迪奇”号海洋测量船正要回收两个水下无人潜航器,一艘中国海军舰艇冲了过来,当着美国船员的面抢走了一个无人潜航器。

“鲍迪奇”号是美国军方的间谍船,船上的无人潜航器是美国军方的财产,就这样被中国军方明目张胆地抢走了。这是什么行为?标准的战争行为。按道理说,美军应该先提出警告,要求归还,不给就得开枪夺回来,但美军没敢这么做。

美国人是怎么做的呢?按照五角大楼的说法,“鲍迪奇”号在无人潜航器被抢走以后马上使用无线电信号呼叫中国军舰,要求“停止偷窃行为”,中方却始终没有应答,过了很久以后溜走的中国军舰突然回应道:“有什么事需要帮忙?我们正在附近巡逻。”

帮忙?你过来,我保证不打死你。

现在轮到美军犯愁了,怎么把这个玩艺弄回来呢?堂堂海上霸主,居然被人给抢了,这也太丢人了吧?美国国防部就发了一个声明,要求中国立即归还。特朗普也知道这事跟自己有关,就发了一条推特,“我们应该告诉中国,他们偷走的无人潜航器我们不想要了,就让他们留着吧!”看来这些美国人都迷糊了,中国军方明明是当着美国人的面把无人潜航器拿走的,怎么能叫偷呢?这叫抢好不好?当然了,要说美军的财产被人抢了确实比较丢脸,还是说被偷更有面子一点。

中国这一次是铁了心要打特朗普的脸。国防部马上回应,“美方单方面公开炒作不利于问题顺利解决,中方将通过适当方式向美方移交该潜航器。”什么叫单方面炒作?明明是被抢,却说成被偷,明明丢了脸,却在给自己争脸,就是在炒作。

中美军方在南海闹开以后,奥巴马也跟特朗普掐上了。

12月16日下午,奥巴马在年终总结记者会上警告特朗普,不要试图改变“一中”政策,这是中国的核心问题,如果真要改,你得先想清楚后果,别到时候收拾不了残局!双料锅王决定,锅只背一个,特朗普的锅,老子不背!看来锅王还是很骨气的。锅王的这番警告让特朗普很是尴尬,就这么承认“一中”原则显得太没战斗力,不承认眼前这个槛又过不去,怎么办好呢?先找个人打圆场蒙混过关再说吧。

12月18日,特朗普的白宫幕僚长普里伯斯到《福克斯周日新闻》节目上替特朗普灭火,普里伯斯说,特朗普还没有打算改变“一个中国”的政策,他还没有入主白宫,对台政策现在还是奥巴马说了算。普里伯斯说得很圆滑,现在是奥巴马说了算,特朗普上台以后呢?普里伯斯打完圆场以后,国际上马上发生了两件大事。

第一件事,挪威外相访华认错。2010年,诺贝尔奖评选委员会在北京的严重警告声中把和平奖颁给了刘某波,中挪关系彻底恶化,从此以后,挪威开始过上被人修理的日子。第一个倒霉的是挪威的三文鱼,由于可能携带“ISA”病毒,挪威的三文鱼被执行了非常耗时的检查措施,大量鲜鱼在仓库中腐烂,不过,出自同一片海域的英国三文鱼通关非常顺利,挪威三文鱼在中国的市场占有率从92%一口气跌到29%。第二件事情,挪威签证受限,一般人就不用说了,首相都不给面子,2012年,挪威首相参加一个在南京举办的国际会议,会前一周被通知拒签,就不让你的人来中国,首相也不行,你能怎么的?经此一事之后,挪威政府怕它的驻华大使回国以后也被拒签,就不敢让大使回国了,这位可怜的大使只好咬着牙在中国挺着,一直挺到2016年底。无人潜航器事件发生以后,美国的软弱让挪威的精神支柱崩溃了,12月19日,挪威外相访华,对曾经的错误进行了深刻反思,挪威向中国保证,以后不会再犯低级错误了,中挪关系正常化。好了,大使先生,你可以回国探亲了。

挪威外相登门道歉以后,蒙古也撑不住了。蒙古跟中国有什么过节呢?2006年11月中旬,蒙古邀请达赖访问,事先北京再三劝阻,蒙古政府就是不听,没办法,只好给它松松骨了。中国是怎么收拾蒙古的呢?按说动作也不大,就是对蒙古过境中国的货车加了点钱,一辆车通行费加10块,车上的货物每吨加附加费8块,再就是无限期的推迟了向蒙古提供贷款的双边会议,就这么点小小的惩罚,不成敬意。但是,蒙古的经济极为困难,很多人连蛋糕都吃不起了,蒙古出口的90%又是面向中国的,这么个拦路抢劫法它怎么受得了?不对,是拦路收费。在挪威外相访华的第二天,蒙古外长也飞到北京,向北京认错,保证以后不会再请达赖访问了。

美国丢了两个反华盟友以后,中国就把无人潜航器还给了美国。现在事情又热闹了,特朗普是候任总统,他都说不要了美国军方还能要吗?候任总统的面子还比不上一个无人潜航器?但是,他们又不敢不要。中国捞无人潜航器的时候可是说得明白,这是个不明装置,中国捞过来是想查证一下这个东西会不会对过往船舶的航行安全和人员安全产生危害,可没说这是个间谍装置,其实呢,这个东西的真实作用是监控中国潜艇航路,如果美军敢说不要,我们就把它扔给朝鲜拆着玩,美国受得了吗?没办法,美军只好收了回去,中国借着美国海军的手狠狠给了特朗普一个大嘴巴,你不是说不要吗?打得你不要不要的。

6、打回原形



美国在无人潜航器事件上的无所作为也引发了叙利亚局势的重大变化。12月23日,叙利亚政府军收复阿勒颇;28日,土耳其和俄罗斯就叙利亚停火计划达成一致,阿萨德政府和叙反对派实现停火(不包括叙境内恐怖组织);31日,联合国安理会通过决议,可日前由俄罗斯和土耳其促成的叙利亚停火协议。2017年1月24日,俄罗斯、伊朗和土耳其三国发表联合声明,将建立叙利亚停火三国联合监督机制。监督叙利亚停火居然没有美国和欧盟什么事,这个世界要变天了。

叙利亚战场停火的同时,中国的轰6-K和“辽宁”号航母相继绕台,警告美国和台独势力,要不我们提前解决台湾问题如何?瞧瞧吧,一个无人潜航器给美国搞出多少麻烦。

1月5日,中国外长王毅与美国国务卿克里通电话,希望美方能把握好两国关系发展的正确方向。克里回应道,“美中关系十分重要,坚持基于美中三个联合公报的一个中国政策,是美国两党的共同立场。”美国两党全都坚持“一中”原则特朗普不坚持,怪不得他是个局外人呢。

1月13日,即将入主白宫的特朗普接受《华尔街日报》记者采访时说,他将不承诺支持一个中国政策,一切都在谈判中。特朗普还想再踢一下天安门的城墙,试试到底有多结实。

1月17日,习主席出席达沃斯世界经济论坛,这是中国国家元首第一次出现在达沃斯论坛上。这件事对美国来说,是个危险的信号。2010-2014年是欧盟经济最艰难的日子,在这四年里中国参加达沃斯论坛的代表团规模和级别是逐年下降的,2015年以后级别才提了起来,现在欧盟正在为英国脱欧、难民危机和恐怖袭击三个麻烦犯愁,中国最高领导人的到来无疑是一种莫大的支持。美国和欧元区都是虚拟经济,在后金融危机时代全世界养活不了它们两家,美国只好出手搞欧盟,债务危机,难民危机,恐怖袭击,轮翻在欧元区国家上演。现在特朗普跟中国闹翻了,敌人的敌人就是朋友,中国帮欧盟一把说得过去吧?不过,欧盟得到中国的支持以后,也许撑不住的就是美国了。

1月23日,特朗普签署了第一份行政命令,退出TPP。平心而论,特朗普退出TPP是假退,他原指望日本、澳大利亚等国家把贸易协定的条件修改一下,改得对美国更有利一点,再把美国请回去,美国名利双收,可特朗普没想到的是,由于在过去两个多月里他被人拍的一脸血,在别人眼里早就没了身价,澳大利亚马上表示,美国不干就算了,我们请中国来干吧。澳大利亚和美国来的这一出如果打个比方应该是这样的:两个人吵架,一个气极了,说我不想活了,我要跳楼,另一个马上把窗户打开说,来,跳吧。

特朗普很生气,后果很严重!

1月27日,特朗普签署总统行政令,暂停所有难民及伊朗、苏丹、叙利亚、利比亚、索马里、也门和伊拉克7国公民入境,无限期禁止叙利亚难民入境。行政令特别规定,“履行此前存在的国际协议”时可以例外,也就是说,美澳难民安置协议还是可以执行的。澳大利亚总理特恩布尔一看非常高兴,赶紧给特朗普打电话,特恩布尔在电话里说,老兄啊,之前锅王答应过的,我们这里有1250名难民可以送到你们那去,你什么时候来接人呀?特朗普一听就火了,前几天你在TPP的事情上插了我一刀,现在又叫我接收难民,你有病呀!骂完就把电话给撂了。特恩布尔也蒙了,还能这样啊,外交礼仪呢?契约精神呢?

特朗普的倒霉事还远没有结束。“禁穆令”签署以后,伊朗政府马上出台反制措施,暂停美国公民入境,直到美国政府解除“禁穆令”为止,伊朗央行跟着宣布,以后在外汇交易和财务报告中弃用美元。这下子坏了,美元霸权是美国的命根子,必须坚决保护,当年萨达姆被灭国就有弃用美元结算的原因,欧债危机连年闹也与欧元跟美元争霸直接相关,现在伊朗弃用美元了,美国应该出兵打它才行,可美国现在哪有这个能力?叙利亚都被迫停火了,还是在伊朗的监督下停火,美国拿什么打伊朗?可如果不打它,别的国家也跟着弃用美元,“禁穆令”不就成自己刨自己的祖坟了吗?

怎么化解这个难题呢?说实在的,美国最高管理层的人很有慧根,他们还能想到你做梦都想不出来的办法:

2月3日,华盛顿州西区联邦地方法院法官罗巴特作出裁决,在全美范围内暂停实施“禁穆令”;

2月4日,司法部向美国联邦第九巡回上诉法院上诉,要求解禁“禁穆令”;

2月9日,第九巡回上诉法院裁定,维持罗巴特冻结“禁穆令”的裁决,持美国签证的相关国家公民可继续入境。

真是开眼了,区区一个联邦地方法院,居然能管全美国的事情,美国媒体天天在那宣传,美国总统是全世界最有权势的人,美国总统算什么?华盛顿地方法院的法官才是全世界最有权势的人。

在分权模式下,制衡总统的力量是国会,地方法院只是法律的执行者,它们执行的重要法律大都出自国会,国会通过法律需要总统签字才能生效,地方法院有什么资格跟总统抗衡?总统签字的行政命令也是法律,只不过执行它的是各级政府,不是法院,就算总统真错了,也得国会跟总统掰,法院只是法律的执行者,不是制定者,法院有什么资格裁定一个法律是不是定错了?如果法院能决定哪些法律是正确的,哪些是错误的,法院不就可以制定法律了吗,还要议会干什么?

退一万步讲,就算法院有权力裁决,也应该最高法院亲自出面才行,地方法院有什么资格?总统只要在那个位子上坐着,地方法院就没有资格审他,在职的总统不是一个普通意义上的人,他是一个国家的象征,他有豁免权,真要办他也得先把他搞下去,秋后才能算账,古今中外,全都如此。随便一个小法官就能审总统,国家不乱套了吗?

这些道理美国的精英们不懂吗?他们当然懂,不过他们没办法,特朗普办的这个事太要命:第一,伊朗已经带头造反了,继续执行要出大事;第二,“禁穆令”不是特朗普个人的意愿,它代表了美国最高管理层相当一部分人的意愿,直接废掉也不行,只能玩玩花样了。2017年6月26日,美国最高法院以9:0全票推翻了下级法院的判决,“禁穆令”部分解禁,可以执行。看清楚了吧?美国地方法院反对,联邦巡回上诉法院反对,最高法院却是绝对支持的,这说明什么?如果特朗普的禁令是违法的,说明最高法院的九个大法官全都不懂法,如果特朗普的禁令不违法,总统要做什么事,还需要地方法院批准吗?这个国家到底是谁在管理?美国地方法院能裁“禁穆令”,为什么不裁决一下特朗普否认“一中”的事情?这可是违反中美三个联合公报的。

中国还没出手,伊朗就把美国的权力体系给搞乱套了,特朗普还有什么本钱跟中国斗?于是乎,一直端着架子不给中国人拜年的特朗普赶紧发出贺信,祝中国人民“鸡年兴旺”,不过此时新年已经过去11天。特朗普也觉得年拜得也太晚了,显得很没诚意,就又想了个补救的办法,他在贺信里面同时预祝中国人民元宵节快乐,元宵节还不到,这个不晚吧?叫我说呀,他应该把中秋节也一块祝了,万一八月十四他跟中国闹得不开心忘记祝贺了,再补都不好补嘛。

发完贺电以后,中美关系稍微缓和了一下,特朗普开始跟习主席通电话,特朗普在电话里保证,美国政府坚决奉行“一个中国”政策,不谈判了。真是的,早知今日,何必当初?折腾一圈子,弄得里外不是人,何苦来着?当然了,有一个人是一定要感谢特朗普的,就是挪威驻华大使,拜特朗普所赐,他可以回家了。

摘自公众号有听早餐(ID:youtingzaocan),系授权发布,作者:棋胜老师,资深宏观经济研究专家,国际问题专家,THLDL咨询集团创始合伙人。我们对文中观点保持中立,仅供参考、交流之目的。

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #147 on: October 20, 2017, 08:50:14 AM »




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WORLD ECONOMY
ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices
China's central bank has said it should prevent accumulation of risk from excessive optimism
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said corporate debt is relatively high and that household debt rises too quickly
Zhou said the trading range of the yuan exchange rate was not a key issue at moment
Zhou is expected to step down early next year
Published 19 Hours Ago  Updated 12 Hours Ago
Reuters
 China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices   China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices 
10 Hours Ago | 00:53
China will fend off risks from excessive optimism that could lead to a "Minsky Moment", central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Thursday, adding that corporate debt levels are relatively high and household debt is rising too quickly.

A Minsky Moment is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures. The theory is named after economist Hyman Minsky.

Zhou's warnings of potential risks facing the world's second-largest economy contrast with the rosier views of most Chinese officials.

"If there are too many pro-cyclical factors in the economy, cyclical fluctuations are magnified and there is excessive optimism during the period, accumulating contradictions that could lead to the so-called Minsky Moment," Zhou was speaking on the sidelines of China's 19th Communist Party congress.

"We should focus on preventing a dramatic adjustment," he said. China will control risks from sudden adjustments to asset bubbles and will seriously deal with disguised debt of local government financing vehicles, Zhou said.

Still, China's overall debt levels could decline as long as authorities keep a tight control on credit, he said.

Worries about a rapid build-up in China's debt prompted S&P Global Ratings to cut China's sovereign credit rating last month, following a cut by Moody's in May.

China's finance ministry said S&P's downgrade was a "wrong decision".

The International Monetary Fund IMF said in August it expected China's total non-financial sector debt to rise to almost 300 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022, up from 242 percent last year.

When asked whether he would retire this year or next, Zhou said: "Either way it'll be soon." The 69-year-old Zhou, the country's longest-serving central bank chief, has spearheaded financial reforms and boosted the yuan's global profile.

Sources told Reuters earlier that Zhou was likely to retire around the time of the annual session of parliament next March, and China's top banking regulator Guo Shuqing and veteran banker Jiang Chaoliang are front runners to succeed Zhou.

Yuan band not key focus

Zhou also said that the trading range of the yuan exchange rate was not a key issue at the moment, and that the width of the yuan's current band rarely constrains supply and demand.

    China retail sales data beats, even as economy rebalances consumption 
17 Hours Ago | 04:14
"Sometimes a widening of the exchange rate's floating range is a signal that (China's) opening up will move forward. But this is not the key focus currently," he said.

The central bank is considering a widening of the yuan's trading band after the 19th Communist Party congress, Reuters reported in August, citing sources.

The central bank could widen the yuan trading range to allow it to rise or fall 3 percent against the dollar from the daily mid-point rate set by the central bank, up from the current 2 percent, according to the sources.

The foreign exchange market is currently stable, Pan Gongsheng, chief of the forex regulator, said on the sidelines of the congress, adding that supply and demand in the foreign exchange market was basically balanced.

Pan said on Wednesday that he expected yuan exchange rates to have a more stable foundation after the congress, and the central bank had "basically exited" from its regular yuan intervention.

Beijing burned through nearly $320 billion of reserves last year and the yuan still fell about 6.5 percent against the surging dollar, its biggest annual drop since 1994.

The yuan has gained nearly 5 percent so far this year.

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #148 on: November 02, 2017, 06:44:39 AM »




習近平為何捍衛毛澤東思想?

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中國毛澤東主席逝世(1976年9月9日)不到一個月內,中共第一副主席華國鋒結合黨元老,主要是掌握兵權的葉劍英于10月6日對四人幫採取突擊的逮捕行動后,歷時10年的「文化大革命」基本上戈然而止(四人幫即指在文革時權傾一時的江青、王洪文、張春橋及姚文元)。但還要經過兩年的掙扎才把華國鋒信奉的「兩個凡是」整掉(所謂的「兩個凡是」是指凡是毛主席作出的決策我們都堅決維護;凡是毛主席的指示我們都始終不渝的遵循)。

1978年鄧小平在第11屆三中全會上已確定了他的「改革開放政策」,否定「兩個凡是」和否定「文化大革命」,為中國的政局啟開新的一頁。這之中有兩個個大動作是由鄧小平親自拍板和作出表率的。其一,1979年初他代表國家出訪美國,回報尼克遜1972年對中國之訪問;其二,他照會美國將教訓越南,因而有了1979年中國揮軍入越南攻打諒山的戰爭。

這之中的重要轉變也標誌著中美關係的好轉,1979年兩國將聯絡處提升為大使館;中國也借開放政策引進外資和與西方世界打交道,也無可避免的中國國內在改革開放的名堂下,對毛澤東的批評也升級到批判,甚至有人否定毛澤東的功績。在這方面,鄧小平于1980年會見意大利記者奧琳埃娜·法拉奇時為毛澤東做了辯護,他認真地提出了對毛澤東功過的「三七」開。換句話說,他的功績是七分,他的錯誤是三分。這之后,鄧小平已成為中國實權領導人,華國鋒靠邊站,中國進入了鄧小平年代。

鄧小平的評價也在改革開放后形成一個被接受的「蓋棺論定」。這也是為什麼在鄧小平之下的胡耀邦、趙紫陽、江澤民、胡錦濤乃至今日的習近平都不能也不會把「毛澤東思想」這把刀子丟掉的,因為不論中國怎樣開放和怎樣改革,它都離不開中共立黨立國的根基。它可以在經濟上走得比資本主義還要快;它可以直接和間接地引進資本主義和西方的文化;它可以在政治上與任何國家交流和發展雙邊乃至多邊關係,但來到政治這個關口,它是不能放鬆和在潛移默化中把社會主義體制整掉;更不會接受政治體制的改革來迎合經濟發展的需求。

改頭換面的「新中國」

為此,我們不感到驚奇為何在12月26日那天,習近平率領了所有政治局常委(共7位)在毛澤東紀念堂向毛澤東塑像行三鞠躬禮,並瞻仰毛澤東遺容。這一天正是毛澤東冥誕120週年。雖然沒有其他重大的紀念活動,但說明了中國領導人不論在任何情況下都不會讓毛澤東打下的紅色江山被變質,儘管這30年來中國大地已起了天翻地覆的變化,讓人感覺到中國好像已不是社會主義的國家,而是在某些方面走在資本主義的前頭,更像是一個改頭換面的「新中國」。

中國領導人也許不介意被稱為已是脫胎換骨的「新中國」,但不會同意它已朝資本主義道路滑落下去,因為它堅持走中國特色的社會主義道路。

這種特色也真是沒有前例可援引,只能在摸索中前進。前提是中國怎樣把持「紅色江山」?這就要回歸到對馬克思主義和毛澤東思想的堅持。

馬克思主義是中共建黨的指導思想,它是在馬克思主義影響在下的一個左翼政黨。最初(1921年)是根據蘇共的模式而成立的。在一段很長的時間裡,中共的鬥爭路線都是以蘇聯為導向,直到1949年取得勝利,建立中華人民共和國后,毛澤東主席還是堅持向蘇共看齊,並一面倒向蘇聯,與西方的帝國主義思想展開無休止的鬥爭。

不過,當1956年蘇聯的克魯曉夫大力批判斯大林后,毛澤東就感到「心寒」和不對勁。他說,克魯曉夫把斯大林這把刀子丟了,另一把列寧的刀子也被丟的差不多了。他因而總結克魯曉夫搞得那一套是為「修正主義」。

為了制止中國山河變色,並被「右傾分子」變質,毛澤東在1957年開展反右大鬥爭,將知識分子下放勞動改造。他認為這些人思想動搖,容易自我轉變。后來竟被擴大化到凡是知識分子必反而被打成右派,幾達55萬人之眾。這場運動就當權派看來是防止修正主義思想在中國蔓延開來。

發動文化大革命

接著在1958年毛澤東又開展第二波的運動,稱之為「大躍進」。這種「提早走向共產社會」的運動,主要目的是制止中國被「和平演變」。毛澤東最擔心的是美國所鼓吹的讓中國被資本主義的糖衣炮彈所溶化,把社會主義丟掉的計謀得逞。

后來毛澤東還是不放心,也就在1966年發動「文化大革命」。他先是被認為在理論上是要阻止黨和國家變色,以保住紅色政權;但后來失控地發展和演變成十年浩劫的文化大革命,搞得人性喪失殆盡,也就在后來被否定其價值,並認為毛澤東應對文革的錯誤負有很大的責任。

雖然文革被否定了,但鄧小平以還的后來當政者都明白一個大道理,那就是要以蘇聯作為前車之鑒(蘇聯在1990年變天后,丟掉蘇共和整個社會主義體系,也就是否定了馬克思主義和列寧主義),絕對不能把馬克思主義這把刀子和毛澤東思想這把刀子雙雙丟掉,一旦失去了立黨立國的指導思想,中國的體制就會面目全非了。

就中國而言,在中國人民不被鼓勵信仰宗教的大格局下,馬克思主義及毛澤東思想在解放前后已成為中國人民在精神上唯一的思想信仰。在一個時期它比信仰宗教更投入和忘我,可以為理想和信仰而前仆后繼,製造了許許多多的烈士為一個明天而壯烈犧牲。

中共就是靠這種一不怕苦,二不怕死的精神打出江山來。于是習近平在18屆三中會會前提出了這樣的政治取向:「要理直氣壯地肯定毛澤東同志的歷史地位和毛澤東思想」,不能否定改革前的歷史;也不能否定改革后的歷史,但不意味著要掩蓋「文革」的錯誤」。

習近平的講話,也因之被形容為「兩個不能否定」。在這種共識和接受「文革」是錯誤的大前提下,當下的領導人也就在「三七」的基礎上評價毛澤東的功過。

這種被固定下來的評價是為了確保中共的江山是不能被外來或被內部的反動勢力所擊垮的。因此堅持馬克思主義和毛澤東思想,也就成了唯一和有效的「信仰」,以保證中國特色的社會主義能開花結果。這也是為什麼習近平不能乖離毛澤東思想的歷史淵源。

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Re: CHINA
« Reply #148 on: November 02, 2017, 06:44:39 AM »