Author Topic: BUNNY MARKET ??  (Read 408 times)

Offline king

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BUNNY MARKET ??
« on: March 25, 2016, 11:26:16 AM »



It's not a bull or a bear market, it's a 'bunny,' says Jim Paulsen
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Wednesday, 23 Mar 2016 | 10:49 AM ET
CNBC.com
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Before bottoming on Feb. 11, it looked like stocks could be heading into a bear market. The subsequent rebound, though, suggests the bull is back on.

In fact, the truth may be neither. The current trend looks more like a "bunny market," according to Jim Paulsen, the widely followed chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management.

What's a bunny market? It's certainly not like the Easter Bunny, who goes around handing out treats, but instead more like a rabbit bopping up and down in place.

Read MoreWhat happened to the world coming to an end?
"Unlike an enthusiastic bull or a scary bear, a bunny market hops about a bit but really doesn't go anywhere, and bunnies have often dominated the stock market during the latter stages of past economic recoveries," Paulsen said in a report this week for clients.
Indeed, the market has hopped quite a bit over the past 15 months or so, but the S&P 500 benchmark is pretty much unchanged from where it sat in early November 2014, shortly after the Fed ended the third round of quantitative easing.

Bunny Market.
Shironosov | Getty Images
Bunny Market.
Investors have had to digest quite but since then. The global economy has slowed thanks to a China scare and a slide in energy prices, triggering lots of ups and downs with little conviction in either direction.

Expect more of the same in the future, and adjust accordingly, Paulsen said.

"We continue to expect another flat U.S. stock market this year," he said. "In a bunny market, investor strategies can no longer simply be bullish or bearish. Several additional approaches should receive consideration."
Read MoreDr Doom Marc Faber sees 'opportunities' HERE
Navigating this particular bunny market — others have occurred on numerous other occasions, most recently in 1993-94 — will require a mix of strategies.


A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
The bottom is in for stocks: Technician
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Why hedge fund pain could mean stock market gains

Among Paulsen's recommendations are a shift away from U.S. large caps and toward small- and mid-caps and commodities and other "real assets." By sectors, he sees benefits in industrials, materials and capital goods.
Such strategies will help investors through a scenario in which Paulsen believes both "a sustaining bear market" and "an enduring solid bull market" are both "unlikely."

Offline CurryLee

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Re: BUNNY MARKET ??
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2016, 11:30:35 AM »
 :D :D


It's not a bull or a bear market, it's a 'bunny,' says Jim Paulsen
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Wednesday, 23 Mar 2016 | 10:49 AM ET
CNBC.com
115
SHARES
35
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Before bottoming on Feb. 11, it looked like stocks could be heading into a bear market. The subsequent rebound, though, suggests the bull is back on.

In fact, the truth may be neither. The current trend looks more like a "bunny market," according to Jim Paulsen, the widely followed chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management.

What's a bunny market? It's certainly not like the Easter Bunny, who goes around handing out treats, but instead more like a rabbit bopping up and down in place.

Read MoreWhat happened to the world coming to an end?
"Unlike an enthusiastic bull or a scary bear, a bunny market hops about a bit but really doesn't go anywhere, and bunnies have often dominated the stock market during the latter stages of past economic recoveries," Paulsen said in a report this week for clients.
Indeed, the market has hopped quite a bit over the past 15 months or so, but the S&P 500 benchmark is pretty much unchanged from where it sat in early November 2014, shortly after the Fed ended the third round of quantitative easing.

Bunny Market.
Shironosov | Getty Images
Bunny Market.
Investors have had to digest quite but since then. The global economy has slowed thanks to a China scare and a slide in energy prices, triggering lots of ups and downs with little conviction in either direction.

Expect more of the same in the future, and adjust accordingly, Paulsen said.

"We continue to expect another flat U.S. stock market this year," he said. "In a bunny market, investor strategies can no longer simply be bullish or bearish. Several additional approaches should receive consideration."
Read MoreDr Doom Marc Faber sees 'opportunities' HERE
Navigating this particular bunny market — others have occurred on numerous other occasions, most recently in 1993-94 — will require a mix of strategies.


A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
The bottom is in for stocks: Technician
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Why hedge fund pain could mean stock market gains

Among Paulsen's recommendations are a shift away from U.S. large caps and toward small- and mid-caps and commodities and other "real assets." By sectors, he sees benefits in industrials, materials and capital goods.
Such strategies will help investors through a scenario in which Paulsen believes both "a sustaining bear market" and "an enduring solid bull market" are both "unlikely."
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Offline king

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Re: BUNNY MARKET ??
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2016, 05:46:29 PM »



“The Greatest Crash Of Your Life Is Just Ahead…” – Harry Dent Warns
GoldCore's pictureSubmitted by GoldCore on 03/23/2016 14:03 -0400

Bond China Germany India Investment Grade Japan NASDAQ Nikkei None Reuters Russell 2000 Switzerland Technical Analysis Volatility Warren Buffett


 
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“The Greatest Crash Of Your Life Is Just Ahead…” – Harry Dent Warns

Harry Dent, best-selling author and economist, has warned that the stock bubble in the U.S. today is the biggest in history and that the “greatest crash of your life is just ahead…”

Writing on his website EconomyandMarkets.com, Dent warned that

The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here!
 
The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history, and I’m getting one sign after the next that we did indeed peak last May.
I’ve been telling our Boom & Bust subscribers for months now that the dominant pattern in the stock is the “rounded top” pattern I show in the chart below:
SP-500-rounded-top-768x578

After trading in a steep, bubble-like channel from late 2011 into late 2014, with only 10% maximum volatility top to bottom, the market finally lost its momentum… just as the Fed finished tapering its QE. That’s because the Fed was the primary driver in this stock bubble in the first place!
But the first sign that the bubble had indeed peaked was the break of that upward channel last August. Surprise, surprise! Without the Fed’s stimulus, stocks started to sputter out!
With that sign we can point to what now looks like a series of major tops, in one major index after the next, since late 2014.
Dow Transports, November 2014. Dow Utilities, January 2015. The DAX in Germany and the FTSE in the UK: April, 2015. The Dow and S&P 500, May 2015. The Shanghai Composite in June 2015. The Nasdaq, Biotech and the Russell 2000: July 2015. And finally, the Nikkei Index in Japan that peaked in August 2015.
The Shanghai Index crashed 45% in 2.5 months, similar to the Dow in late 1929 on its first 2.5 month wave down. That one was so obvious that when I said it was about to burst, it peaked that day and rolled over the next!
Read full article here
Dent is a successful newsletter writer and has written numerous best selling books over the years, most recently ‘Spending Waves: The Scientific Key To Predicting Market Behavior for the Next 20 Years’ and ‘The Demographic Cliff – How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014–2019? – detailing why we’re facing a “great deflation” after five years of stimulus — and what to do about it now.

With stock market valuations in the U.S. in particular looking stretched and U.S. stocks looking very overvalued, we agree with Dent that there is indeed a real risk of a material correction in stock markets as there was in 2000 and in 2007. In presentations to clients we have looked at and explained why we view these markets as over valued and having all the hallmarks of bubbles about to burst.

Given the risk of a new global financial crisis and the backdrop of a massively leveraged global financial system which has seen debt increase another $57 trillion in just 8 years, it would be foolhardy to dismiss Dent’s bearish prediction. Most economists, brokers, advisers and politicians would be likely to do – as they did regarding warnings we made in the 2005 to 2008 period, prior to the first global financial crisis.

Ultimately, none of us have a crystal ball and it is best to focus on what we control and always follow the three rules of investing: diversification, diversification and diversification.

Portfolios with very overweight allocations to equities and bonds are now at risk and there is a strong case for increasing allocations to cash and gold. Careful consideration should be given to who you deposit your money with and store your gold with. Counter party risk and the return of capital rather than the return on capital will assume importance once again in the coming years.

It is worth pointing out that while Harry Dent believes gold prices will fall initially in the coming deflationary spiral – perhaps as low as $700 per ounce – he clearly advises having an allocation to gold as a form of financial insurance:

“Investors might want to keep a little ‘insurance’ gold for diversification.”
Gold prices may indeed fall in the short term however as was the case in the near financial and economic deflationary collapse in 2008, we believe that gold will outperform other assets and should rise in value in the medium term and taking a view on an annual or multi year basis.

Dent’s view that gold will fall to $700 per ounce appears to be based primarily on technical analysis. It ignores the important global supply and demand fundamentals in the international gold market. The above ground, refined, investment grade, physical gold market remains a very small market vis a vis stock, bond, property, cash and derivative markets. Even a small amount of extra demand for physical bullion internationally, given the lack of extra supply should support and indeed lead to higher prices.

To consider gold prices without considering the supply, demand factors driving the market and in particular the very significant demand from China, India and globally and indeed the central bank demand of today is quiet simplistic and liable to lead to erroneous conclusions regarding future prices.

As ever with insurance, it is important to focus on the value derived by the owner rather than solely speculations regarding the price. When buying insurance – whether that be car, health, house or the financial insurance that is gold it is also important to consider the risk of not having insurance and how much it may cost not to be insured.

Real diversification and an allocation to the insurance that is physical gold remains the key to weathering the second global financial crisis.

Offline king

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Re: BUNNY MARKET ??
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2016, 05:48:29 PM »



Rich Dad’ author says the 2016 market collapse he foresaw in 2002 is coming

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Mar 23, 2016 10:38 a.m. ET

     345 
Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki — who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” — says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silverand hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch.

A market destined to collapse
Investors are seven years into a bull market some fear is getting a bit long in the tooth, with the Dow industrials DJIA, -0.45%  and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.64% SPX, -0.64% up 0.9% and 0.3%, in 2016. That’s after 2015 saw major U.S. indexes snap multiyear winning streaks amid falling commodity prices, concerns about economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s December decision to raise interest rates.

In 2002, Kiyosaki wrote that the stock market would crash in 2016 as the first wave of baby boomers began to hit 70 1/2 in 2016 and started taking required-by-law distributions from traditional individual retirement accounts.

He still believes that: “Demography is destiny,” he said in the interview.

Courtesy Rich Dad Co.
Robert Kiyosaki.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, more than 76 million individuals were born between 1946 and 1964; researchers at the Population Reference Bureau determined in 2014 that 65 million of them were still living. After immigrants are added in, according to that 2014 report, the number of living U.S. baby boomers was back above 76 million.

A market meltdown could imperil those boomers’ retirement plans, taking a badly timed bite out of hard-earned balances in their retirement accounts. And while the sheer number of aging boomers could contribute to stock-market selling pressure, Kiyosaki said, the larger issue today is that it’s hard for investors to figure out where to put money.

“Interest income or cash flow on savings is virtually nonexistent, and capital-gains plays in the stock market are thwarted because stock prices are at record highs,” he said.

Whatever burden millions of boomers might put on the market, he said, the situation is being made worse by events overseas, where one big country is wielding the monkey wrench.

“China has been in a bubble for 20-something years,” said Kiyosaki. “It has propped up the U.S. economy falsely. When [China] stops importing, the world crashes with them.”

Down the China rabbit hole
First to go, Kiyosaki said, will be commodity producers like Australia, Canada and African countries, which will drag down the rest of the world’s economies.

The collapse in oil prices has been particularly tough for economies such as Australia’s. The S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -1.13% down 14% over a 12-month period, suffered its first annual decline in four years last year. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.42% meanwhile, has cratered, sliding nearly 15% in three months after earning the title of Asia’s best-performing stock market in 2015 with a gain above 9%.

Market watchers are largely divided about the outlook for China, though every piece of negative data raises new questions about the country’s ability to drive global economic growth. Recent data showed Chinese exports down 25.4% from a year earlier; economists had forecast a drop of 15%. It was the eighth consecutive decline in exports.

Read: China may swap ‘zombie’ companies for ‘zombie’ banks

Kiyosaki is hardly alone in his bearish view: The “high” probability of a “sharp economic slowdown“ in China was cited in mid-March as a top global risk by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Its concerns included a buildup of bad debt in the country, a weak currency and worries that the government may not be able to shore up its economy.

And ballooning government debt was a key reason Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on China’s credit rating in March, also citing money fleeing the country.

Kiyosaki, who has written or co-written more than two dozen books — including New York Times best seller “Rich Dad Poor Dad” — has built a fortune mostly on real estate and authorship, rather than the stock market. (His licensing company, Rich Global LLC, has filed for bankruptcy and is being sued by a seminar promoter in connection with that filing. A spokesman said Kiyosaki “has the money to withstand an adverse ruling” and expects the case to be settled this year.)

Forbes estimated Kiyosaki’s worth at $80 million in 2012, a figure he declined to address.

But from the outside looking in, he said, investors are ignoring danger signs. The next crash, he said, could have a harsher effect on the economy than the market crashes that have occurred so far in the 21st century.

Those crashes included the market rout that ended the dot-com boom in 2000, which erased $5 trillion in market value between March 2000 and October 2002, and the financial crisis of 2007-08, which inspired both a market collapse and a real estate bust. Better Markets, a nonprofit pro-financial-reform watchdog, has estimated that the final price tag for the 2007-08 crash will exceed $20 trillion in lost gross domestic product.


Kiyosaki said two key factors have emerged since he wrote “Rich Dad’s Prophecy”: the likelihood of a bust in China and the “insanity” of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve’s controversial multibillion-dollar bond-buying program, which ended in 2014 amid criticism that it had increased demand for risky investments even as supporters said it sustained economic growth.

Opinion: China’s banks could be the next big problem

Meanwhile, China has been throwing money at its banks to keep lending going, and debt quality at financial institutions is a constant theme among worried onlookers. Kiyosaki said he is in the camp that fears Chinese banks will be at the forefront of the next crash.

Waiting for the Fed’s fire hose
Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy.

The Fed turned more dovish at its March meeting, with the central bank penciling in fewer interest-rate hikes this year than were previously part of its implied framework. The Fed signaled those hikes would happen more slowly than had been anticipated earlier, owing to a weak global economic environment and a volatile stock market.

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

Reuters
Shanghai’s Pudong financial district as seen this month.
For baby boomers beginning to withdraw funds from the stock market, he said, another round of quantitative easing, or QE, might be a particularly welcome occurrence.

If Janet Yellen “even hints” about such fresh stimulus, Kiyosaki said, he’d be ready to go back into he stock market himself, if only for a short time. Money left in the bank in an ultra-low-rate environment — a big topic as central banks in Japan and the European Union have bitten the negative-rate bullet — returns nothing for savers, he noted.

And for the Fed another round of quantitative easing “could be the last time they pull this stunt,” in Kiyosaki’s view. “The markets might rally, then crash.”

Opinion: Don’t rule out the possibility of Fed quantitative easing (part four)

Because preparing for that coming storm is vital, Kiyosaki often invokes investors to “build a financial ark.”

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.


反駁富爸爸崩盤論?美衰退機率為零、EM觸底,股市安啦
回應(0) 人氣(428) 收藏(0) 2016/03/25 10:03
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-25 10:03:50 記者 陳苓 報導
財經暢銷書《富爸爸,窮爸爸》作者羅伯特清崎(Robert Kiyosaki)預測,2016年將發生史上最嚴重的股市大崩盤。但是部分人士並不認同。德意志銀行指出,新興市場已經觸底,不會重回低點;還有人說美國沒有衰退風險,股市不會一敗塗地。
金融時報(FT)、巴倫(Barronˋs)網站24日稱,能源和原物料類股翻漲,帶動新興市場從1月底低點反彈,但是近來漲勢熄火,報導認為亞洲新興市場不會重回谷底,並以德意志銀行的Taimur Baig報告的四大理由,佐證新興市場已經築底。
報告指出,首先,中國政策不再反覆無常,較具一致性。人大兩會之後,當局承諾增加刺激方案、避免硬著陸。中國預算赤字佔GDP比重將從前兩年的2.1%、2.3%,今年增至3%。此外,中國資金外流減緩,3月跨境資金出走程度月減30%。

第二,原物料價格可能已經位於底部,沙烏地阿拉伯為油價打底,亞洲唯一的原油出口國馬來西亞受惠,今年迄今馬幣跳漲7%。第三,原物料止跌,但是價格應該仍在低點打轉,對亞洲原油進口國來說將是利多,進口商可因此受惠。第四,中國、印度、印尼等都將以財政預算刺激成長,提振投資人信心。德意志銀行因此推斷,新興市場已經打底,不會反轉重摔。
與此同時,Cougar Global Investments主管James Breech也說,只要沒有明確證據顯示,美國瀕臨衰退,股市就不會一路狂瀉。他強調牛市不會老死,只有衰退能殺死牛市,未來12個月衰退機率為零。
富爸爸作者清崎23日接受MarketWatch專訪表示,他14年前曾經預估,股市將在2016年出現史上最嚴重的大崩盤,直接摧毀才剛要退休享受人生的戰後嬰兒潮。現在,他依舊堅持2002年的看法,認為美股2016年將崩盤,投資人只能抱緊黃金或白銀,並祈禱聯準會(Fed)能盡力緩下跌勢

Offline king

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Re: BUNNY MARKET ??
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2016, 11:31:34 AM »


 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

Offline king

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Re: BUNNY MARKET ??
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2016, 11:34:22 AM »



where r t bulls ?

where r t bears ?