Author Topic: COMMODITIES  (Read 1574 times)

Online king

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COMMODITIES
« on: May 05, 2016, 05:49:25 PM »


Thursday, 5 May 2016 | MYT 4:36 PM
On bull market brink, Citi sees commodity gains as Goldman jeers






 The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell to 332 last week, the least since November 2009, according to Baker Hughes Inc.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell to 332 last week, the least since November 2009, according to Baker Hughes Inc.
 
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NEW YORK: Commodity bulls, it might finally be time to exhale.

There's a growing chorus of voices and a surge of investor money signaling the worst of the commodity slump is over.

Leading the pack is Citigroup Inc., the bank that was ahead of the game back in 2012 when analysts declared the end of the super cycle of rising demand and prices.

Now, the bank expects a weaker dollar and China's stabilizing economy mean most markets have reached their bottoms.

Raw materials are on the brink of a bull market, after five straight years of price declines fueled by slowing Chinese demand and global surpluses for most metals, grains and energy products.

Not everyone expects the dark clouds to lift.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees no “sustainable shift in fundamentals” and says higher U.S. interest rates will keep the outlook bearish.

But hedge funds remain optimistic.

Their combined bets on a rally are the highest since 2014.

“It is more likely than not that we’ve seen a bottom in the commodity market as a whole,” said Fiona Boal, director of commodity research at Fulcrum Asset Management in London, which oversees about $4 billion. “And maybe more importantly, we’ve seen the start of some of the big supply responses that were needed following periods of low prices,” which is forcing cuts at mines, farms and oil fields, she said.

Bull Markets

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a measure of returns for 22 items, has risen as much as 17 percent from a record closing low on Jan. 20. A gain of 20 percent would meet the common definition of a bull market. Soybeans, gold, silver, crude oil and coffee have crossed that threshold in recent months. The index surged 8.5 percent in April, the biggest monthly advance since 2010.

Investors have poured $18.3 billion into global exchange- traded funds backed by raw materials this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Assets invested in commodity hedge funds, ETFs and passive indexes have reached $315 billion, the highest since May 2015, Citigroup said in an April report.

The end of the rout would be welcome news to producers including Exxon Mobil Corp., Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Glencore Plc.

As supply cuts start to take hold, the global gluts that plagued commodities from crude oil to zinc are starting to subside. Markets may rebalance by the end of the year, BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said last week.

Echoing the positive outlook was industry veteran Tom Albanese, chief executive officer of mine owner Vedanta Ltd. and a former head of Rio Tinto Group, who said last week that recovering Chinese demand means the worst is over.

Energy companies responded to the lowest oil prices since 2003 by cutting spending on exploration and developing new fields.

The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell to 332 last week, the least since November 2009, according to Baker Hughes Inc. U.S. crude output has steadily declined since mid-2015, government data show.

Oil futures tumbled from about $108 a barrel in 2014 to almost $26 in February, and then rallied last week to $46.78, a five-month high.

Supplies of copper are also tightening. Combined stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York shrank 15 percent from a peak in March.

For crops, flooding in Argentina and Uruguay has cut the South American soybean harvest, further eroding global output that will be 6.6 million metric tons lower than forecast last month, Oil World said in a report e-mailed May 3.

Drought in Brazil has threatened production of corn, while global sugar supply is expected to fall short of demand after dry weather in India and Thailand curbed output.

US Rates

Goldman's bearish outlook hinges in part on expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year, compared with Citigroup's expectations for two increases, at most. Higher borrowing costs will lead to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold and copper, Goldman said in a report April 22.

Recent commodity gains have been driven by short-term, transient supply adjustments that don’t solve longer-term surpluses, particularly in oil and steel, Goldman said.

The bank forecasts West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $40 in three months, before rebounding to $60 in the next 12 months. Futures settled at $43.78 Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson are also negative on energy, saying in an April 25 report that “a macro unwind could cause severe selling” with the fundamentals worsening for oil.

Iraq's exports approached a record high in April, while U.S. inventories are at the highest since 1929.

For now, investors are betting with Citigroup.

Since mid- March, hedge funds and other money managers have more than tripled their combined net-long holdings across 18 commodities to 1.09 million futures and options contracts, U.S. government data show.

“The flow of investor money back into commodities has happened much more quickly than we thought it would,” David Wilson, a London-based analyst at Citigroup, said in a telephone interview April 25.

“Instead of just short-covering, you’ve seen it move on to the long side as well, partly on the fact that China is stimulating somewhat. Can you still be over-bearish commodities? It doesn’t really make sense.” - Bloomberg

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2016, 10:56:08 AM »
PPB weighs options on cash, may raise stake in Wilmar ~  2 Mar 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/02/ppb-weighs-options-on-cash/
(PPB is the single largest shareholder  in Wilmar holding a 18.55% stake.)

PPB (4065) ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel

PPB closed @ RM15.96 (-0.38, -2.3%) with 380,000 shares done on 9 Jun 2016.

Immediate support @ RM15.70, immediate resistance @ RM16.12.



PPB (weekly) ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel



DBC closed @ US$15.55 (-0.03, -0.19%) on 9 Jun 2016



Bad weather in South America threatens crops, prices of sugar, soybeans and coffee fly ~ 9 Jun 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/fredoltarsh/2016/06/09/bad-weather-in-south-america-threatens-crops-commodity-prices-like-sugar-soybeans-and-coffee-fly



When your costs decline on a dollar basis, and your revenues increase on a dollar basis, your profits will be higher.
The reverse is true when your costs increase on a dollar basis, and your revenues decrease on a dollar basis, your profits will be lower.


Dow finishes back above 18,000 as dollar dips ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKCN0YU1AE

Ringgit ends marginally lower at 4.0590/0640 against the US dollar ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-ends-marginally-lower-against-us-dollar3

Ringgit rises most in more than 9 weeks ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option%3Dcom_k2%26view%3Ditem%26id%3D616156:ringgit-rises-most-in-more-than-nine-weeks

Dollar at 5-week low ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0YU03O

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback against 6 currencies, was down 0.22% to 93.619.






Commodities enter bull market, ending 5-year selloff: Chart ~ 7 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/commodities-enter-bull-market-ending-five-year-selloff-chart



On bull-market brink, Citi sees commodity gains as Goldman jeers ~ 4 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/on-bull-market-brink-citi-sees-commodity-gains-as-goldman-jeers



Dollar fluctuates after worst drop in 4 months as Fed bets pared ~ 6 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/dollar-rallies-from-worst-loss-in-four-months-as-fed-bets-pared



Ringgit to move between 3.8, 4.2 against US dollar this year ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-to-move-between-3.8-and-4.2-against-us-dollar-this-year


Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2016, 03:06:54 PM »
These commodities are on fire ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000524768

Wall St. banks will miss out on the commodities rally ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://commodityhq.com/news/2016/06/10/wall-st-banks-will-miss-out-on-the-commodities-rally/

Grains - Soybeans set for 9th week of gains as supply woes mount ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N19202K

Commodities rally looks strong and broad on the charts ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://www.barrons.com/articles/commodities-rally-looks-strong-and-broad-on-the-charts-1465416013



Droughts and persisting conflicts exacerbate global food needs – UN agency ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54114#.V1uzKPl97IV


Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2016, 02:18:47 PM »
Rising oil prices encourage shale producers, dissuade investors ~ 13 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-12/rising-oil-prices-encourage-shale-producers-dissuade-investors



Oil rig count rose by 3 last week, Some hedge funds going very long ~ 11 Jun 2016
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2016/06/11/oil-rig-count-rose-by-3-last-week-some-hedge-funds-going-very-long/

Copper price big loser as other commodities rally ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://www.mining.com/copper-price-big-loser-commodities-rally/

Miners cut distressed debt pool by $60 billion as rebound firms ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/miners-cut-distressed-debt-pool-by-60-billion-as-rebound-firms







All you need to know about oil is just off Singapore's coast

By Kim Iskyan
9 Jun 2016

In global financial markets that are drowning in information and data, we may have a huge advantage here in Singapore: We can glance out into the bay from the ECP and learn more about oil markets than any deskload of commodities traders sitting in London or New York.

Recent weeks have been sunny ones for the price of oil. Since a mid-February low of US$26 per barrel, the price of oil has nearly doubled. And in the last couple of months, prices have rallied by over 35%. Now, at just over US$50 per barrel, both WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent prices are at levels not seen since last October.

Many analysts are now excited about the prospects of a further crude oil rally. They argue that the global supply glut, which has kept prices down for so long, is reversing course. This is apparently leading to a supply/demand rebalancing. And they are pointing to a handful of severe global supply disruptions to support their views.

First, wildfires have been raging in Canada's main oil region in northern Alberta, which has disrupted crude production. By late-May, about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) had been taken offline as a result of the wildfires. This amounts to 40% of the country’s total output, and just over 1% of total global supply. So Canada's supply reduction has been helping to prop up oil prices.

In the last few weeks, unrest in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil-producing country and the sixth-biggest in the world, has also been roiling oil markets. Militants have been attacking major oil facilities in the country, which has cut overall output in half to 1.1 million bpd. What's more, they've promised that more attacks are coming.

The weekly number of operational oilrigs in the US fell during May to its lowest level in nearly seven years, indicating a decline in that country's oil production. US crude oil stockpiles have fallen three times in the last four weeks, which has also helped support recent oil prices.

But if you think oil prices will continue to rally, you might want to think again. And you might also want to take a look at what's going on in Southeast Asia's Straits of Malacca in particular.

The Straits of Malacca are just off the coastal waters of Singapore and Malaysia. They are a crucial waterway connecting the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea. So, oil heading from the Middle East to China and Japan, for example, passes through these waters. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that over 15 million barrels of oil pass through the Straits every day – that's 16% of global supply.

Except not all of it is just passing through at the moment. There's been a huge build-up of tanker ships parked there, holding millions of barrels of oil between them.

In late May, Reuters reported that 47.7 million barrels of oil was in storage on tankers in the Straits of Malacca (which is about half of the world's global daily crude supply). This is the highest level in five years, and has been consistently rising in recent weeks. (And a glance off the ECP suggests that there do seem to be more tankers in the water than usual.)

Normally, the decision by oil traders to store oil offshore is driven by profit. To make money, the oil futures curve needs to be in contango. This means that the spot price of physical crude, or the price to buy a barrel of oil today for delivery today, is lower than the futures price – which is the price at which a barrel of oil can be purchased today, but only for delivery at a future date. And when the opposite is the case – when the spot price is higher than the futures contract price – the market is considered to be in backwardation.

So if the contango is strong enough – that is, the futures price is sufficiently higher than the spot price – then a trader can purchase physical barrels of crude oil; keep them in floating storage; and lock in a high futures price, at which the oil can be sold later on. Of course, the futures price would have to be higher than the spot price plus the cost of storage to make a profit.

But this is not what is happening in Asia's waters at the moment. The contango is nowhere near strong enough for traders to make money by buying, and selling, this much oil.

So why is so much crude in floating storage if no one is making money doing so? Simply put, it is because there aren't enough buyers for all the oil at these prices. Weak demand is forcing oil to be put into storage, and the market is now looking for new locations to store the unsold crude.

Floating storage would not normally be used if the oil could be stored somewhere else. But there is nowhere else to store all the extra oil right now. In fact, banks are now reporting that they are experiencing a spike in interest from oil traders who need to finance their floating storage requirements.

So it seems as if they have no choice but to keep all this oil on tankers. And it is also likely that the oil will only be sold at lower prices.

Singapore – the major Straits of Malacca port – seems to be the epicentre for this growing oil glut. But the rise in storage seems to be happening globally. Financial market analysts BMI Research has calculated that the world's total floating storage was up by just under 20% between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. In the US Gulf coast region, for example, crude stocks have risen by 18% from the beginning of the year to May. This means that there is too much oil, and the global supply glut is likely far from over.

It is also worth mentioning that the supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada are only temporary. Nigerian militancy has periodically affected the country's oil production for many years, with production returning to near-full capacity every time. And Canada's wildfires are also not going to disrupt production forever.

Once their production returns to normal, the global glut will return. And those who are saying oil will continue surging higher may have to adjust their forecasts.

Copper's contango returns after biggest inventory rise in a decade ~ 7 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-copper-market-contango-idUSKCN0YU04P

Oil breaks $50 a barrel - but will the rally last? ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/26/oil-hits-key-50-a-barrel-mark-as-canadian-wildfires-sap-us-stock/

Oil’s recovery under threat as tankers run in circles off China ~ 24 May 2016



Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut ~ 19 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129

Glencore said to store oil at sea off Singapore in contango bet ~ 29 Jan 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/glencore-said-to-store-oil-in-ships-off-singapore-amid-contango


Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2016, 03:41:53 PM »
Why the oil price rally might falter ~ 12 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-06-12/why-the-oil-price-rally-might-falter



How OPEC lost its iron grip on oil prices ~ 12 Jun 2016
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/06/12/opec-oil-influence-organization-of-the-petroleum-exporting-countries/85547398/

Oil prices heading toward $40. Here’s when: Analyst ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/10/oil-prices-are-heading-back-down-toward-40-heres-when-analyst.html

Shale producer fracks at US$50 oil as drills return to fields ~ 10 Jun 2016
http://www.investors.com/news/continental-starts-completing-wells-but-oil-dips-below-50/

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices in Europe as Iran ramps up exports ~ 5 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-in-europe-as-iran-ramps-up-exports-1465165449

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2016, 07:50:58 AM »
Oil's biggest wild card: Chaos in Nigeria ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/13/investing/nigeria-sabotage-oil-wild-card/



Will China push oil to the $30s or Venezuela send prices into orbit?

13 Jun 2016

Barely a day after analysts talked excitedly about $60 oil being a distinct possibility by the end of this year, now they worry that China could send crude plummeting below the $40 level.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, raised the issue with CNBC's Squawk Box, pointing out that China is importing so much crude (about 787,000 barrels per day, which goes directly into storage, according to first quarter 2016 data) "it's absolutely insane: they're importing about a million barrels a day more than they are actually consuming."

Smith worries that the 135 million barrels stockpiled to date means China will  hit its maximum capacity of 155 million barrels within a month, at which point imports "will drop off a cliff."

With Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq ramping up production, these factors combined may force crude to plummet to $40 per barrel or even into the $30s, Smith warned.

If that happened, Ship & Bunker data suggests IFO380 prices in the primary ports would slip back under the $200 per metric tonne (pmt) mark, compared to the $252 pmt level they were at last Friday.

Still, there seems to be too many outside factors at play for anyone to convincingly predict a return of ultra-low prices.

Nigeria, whose output has been credited as significant enough to rebalance the global market single-handedly, is said to be facing an almost insurmountable challenge in ridding itself of more attacks from the militant group Niger Delta Avengers, which has disrupted oil production in that country – and contributed to the spectacular gains in prices of late.

Additionally, civil unrest prompted by a worsening economy in Venezuela is taking an increasingly ugly turn, with reports of mass looting, the killing of animals for food, and political figures attacked in the street while police look on.

Speculation is rampant that Venezuela's economy could soon collapse completely, which would cause massive oil supply disruptions – and boost prices even further.

However, Matt Smith is not alone in his analysis: John Kilduff of Again Capital told CNBC last week that oil prices will likely decline after the peak summer demand is over, possibly to $30, and he was backed by Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Analytics, who cited global oversupply as the persistent risk to prices, along with a possible U.S. interest rate hike that would strengthen the dollar and hurt crude prices.

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2016, 07:51:25 AM »
Petronas, Saudi Aramco said seeking pitches for $7 billion loan ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-15/petronas-saudi-aramco-said-seeking-pitches-for-7-billion-loan

Petronas to raise RM29.5bil for Rapid ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/15/petronas-to-raise-rm29bil-for-rapid/

Petronas upstream operations in S’wak undergoing restructuring ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/06/14/petronas-upstream-operations-in-swak-undergoing-restructuring/

JX Nippon to buy 10% stake in Petronas LNG unit ~ 3 Jun 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/jx-nippon-to-buy-10-stake/2842178.html

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2016, 04:10:44 PM »
Oil down on week ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1436020/oil-down-on-week

Oil price 'in for a wild ride' next week ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-in-for-a-wild-ride-next-week

Volatility is back in oil, What does it mean? ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Volatility-Is-Back-In-Oil-What-Does-It-Mean.html

You can only have futures price driving the physical price if you also see hoarding or stockpiling.



All you need to know about oil is just off Singapore's coast

By Kim Iskyan
9 Jun 2016

In global financial markets that are drowning in information and data, we may have a huge advantage here in Singapore: We can glance out into the bay from the ECP and learn more about oil markets than any deskload of commodities traders sitting in London or New York.

Recent weeks have been sunny ones for the price of oil. Since a mid-February low of US$26 per barrel, the price of oil has nearly doubled. And in the last couple of months, prices have rallied by over 35%. Now, at just over US$50 per barrel, both WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent prices are at levels not seen since last October.

Many analysts are now excited about the prospects of a further crude oil rally. They argue that the global supply glut, which has kept prices down for so long, is reversing course. This is apparently leading to a supply/demand rebalancing. And they are pointing to a handful of severe global supply disruptions to support their views.

First, wildfires have been raging in Canada's main oil region in northern Alberta, which has disrupted crude production. By late-May, about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) had been taken offline as a result of the wildfires. This amounts to 40% of the country’s total output, and just over 1% of total global supply. So Canada's supply reduction has been helping to prop up oil prices.

In the last few weeks, unrest in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil-producing country and the sixth-biggest in the world, has also been roiling oil markets. Militants have been attacking major oil facilities in the country, which has cut overall output in half to 1.1 million bpd. What's more, they've promised that more attacks are coming.

The weekly number of operational oilrigs in the US fell during May to its lowest level in nearly seven years, indicating a decline in that country's oil production. US crude oil stockpiles have fallen three times in the last four weeks, which has also helped support recent oil prices.

But if you think oil prices will continue to rally, you might want to think again. And you might also want to take a look at what's going on in Southeast Asia's Straits of Malacca in particular.

The Straits of Malacca are just off the coastal waters of Singapore and Malaysia. They are a crucial waterway connecting the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea. So, oil heading from the Middle East to China and Japan, for example, passes through these waters. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that over 15 million barrels of oil pass through the Straits every day – that's 16% of global supply.

Except not all of it is just passing through at the moment. There's been a huge build-up of tanker ships parked there, holding millions of barrels of oil between them.

In late May, Reuters reported that 47.7 million barrels of oil was in storage on tankers in the Straits of Malacca (which is about half of the world's global daily crude supply). This is the highest level in five years, and has been consistently rising in recent weeks. (And a glance off the ECP suggests that there do seem to be more tankers in the water than usual.)

Normally, the decision by oil traders to store oil offshore is driven by profit. To make money, the oil futures curve needs to be in contango. This means that the spot price of physical crude, or the price to buy a barrel of oil today for delivery today, is lower than the futures price – which is the price at which a barrel of oil can be purchased today, but only for delivery at a future date. And when the opposite is the case – when the spot price is higher than the futures contract price – the market is considered to be in backwardation.

So if the contango is strong enough – that is, the futures price is sufficiently higher than the spot price – then a trader can purchase physical barrels of crude oil; keep them in floating storage; and lock in a high futures price, at which the oil can be sold later on. Of course, the futures price would have to be higher than the spot price plus the cost of storage to make a profit.

But this is not what is happening in Asia's waters at the moment. The contango is nowhere near strong enough for traders to make money by buying, and selling, this much oil.

So why is so much crude in floating storage if no one is making money doing so? Simply put, it is because there aren't enough buyers for all the oil at these prices. Weak demand is forcing oil to be put into storage, and the market is now looking for new locations to store the unsold crude.

Floating storage would not normally be used if the oil could be stored somewhere else. But there is nowhere else to store all the extra oil right now. In fact, banks are now reporting that they are experiencing a spike in interest from oil traders who need to finance their floating storage requirements.

So it seems as if they have no choice but to keep all this oil on tankers. And it is also likely that the oil will only be sold at lower prices.

Singapore – the major Straits of Malacca port – seems to be the epicentre for this growing oil glut. But the rise in storage seems to be happening globally. Financial market analysts BMI Research has calculated that the world's total floating storage was up by just under 20% between the first quarters of 2015 and 2016. In the US Gulf coast region, for example, crude stocks have risen by 18% from the beginning of the year to May. This means that there is too much oil, and the global supply glut is likely far from over.

It is also worth mentioning that the supply disruptions in Nigeria and Canada are only temporary. Nigerian militancy has periodically affected the country's oil production for many years, with production returning to near-full capacity every time. And Canada's wildfires are also not going to disrupt production forever.

Once their production returns to normal, the global glut will return. And those who are saying oil will continue surging higher may have to adjust their forecasts.

Oil breaks $50 a barrel - but will the rally last? ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/26/oil-hits-key-50-a-barrel-mark-as-canadian-wildfires-sap-us-stock/

Oil’s recovery under threat as tankers run in circles off China ~ 24 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-24/oil-s-recovery-under-threat-as-tankers-run-in-circles-off-china



Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut ~ 19 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129

Glencore said to store oil at sea off Singapore in contango bet ~ 29 Jan 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/glencore-said-to-store-oil-in-ships-off-singapore-amid-contango



Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 03:26:37 PM »
Malaysian palm oil price ends more than 1% lower on stronger ringgit ~ 22 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/22/palm-ends-more-than-1-pct-lower-on-stronger-ringgit/



Ringgit closes stronger against US dollar ~ 20 Jun 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-closes-stronger-against-us-dollar

Malaysia paddy fields are Najib’s battlefield to woo voters ~ 20 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-19/malaysia-paddy-fields-become-battlefield-for-najib-to-woo-voters
  • Rural ethnic Malay voters are bulwark of Najib’s ruling party
  • Falling commodity prices, rising costs hurting Malaysians


The ringgit’s woes come from a variety of factors ~ 13 Jun 2016
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=616357
  • Falling oil prices
  • The 1MDB scandal
  • Rising interest rates in the US
  • Malaysia may be willing to accept the weak ringgit

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2016, 03:15:04 PM »
LNG market: Over-supplied up to 2020 but under-supplied beyond ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lng-market-over-supplied-up-to-2020-but-under-supplied-beyond/

Are natural gas prices about to fall? ~ 23 Jun 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Natural-Gas-Prices-About-To-Fall.html



Cheap LNG may lure 50 more nations to gas from oil, WoodMac says ~ 23 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/cheap-lng-may-lure-50-more-nations-to-gas-from-oil-woodmac-says



Natural gas prices rise on expected summer demand ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-rise-on-expected-summer-demand-1466521508

Weather drove natural gas prices in June 2016 ~ 20 Jun 2016
http://marketrealist.com/2016/06/weather-drove-natural-gas-prices-june-2016/



Natural gas prices rise to their highest since January on inventory data ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-continue-to-climb-on-expected-summer-demand-1464876645

Asian LNG markets jostle to set benchmark ~ 23 Mar 2016
http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/Asian-LNG-markets-jostle-to-set-benchmark





Natural-gas futures sink to 17-year low ~ 2 Mar 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-futures-sink-to-17-year-low-2016-03-02

Taiwanese Formosa to invest $9.4bn in US ethane facility ~ 29 Jan 2016
http://www.shalegas.international/2016/01/29/taiwanese-formosa-to-invest-9-4bn-in-us-ethane-facility/



SGX seeks to break LNG's price link to oil with Singapore SLInG ~ 25 Jan 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/sgx-seeks-to-break-lng-s-price-link-to-oil-with-singapore-sling



'Bad feeling' for natural gas prices; Henry Hub forecast to collapse below $2.00

By Carolyn Davis
12 January 2016

A multi-year low may be in the offing for natural gas prices this year, as strong Northeast production compresses Henry Hub pricing and supply continues to overrun demand, analysts said Tuesday.

The U.S. gas market likely won't rebalance until 2017, based on a study of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and industrial demand additions, said Cowen and Co. analysts Charles Robertson II and Shawn Lockman.

"The demand awakens, but we have a bad feeling about natural gas for 2016," the analysts said. Their base supply case shows March storage levels above 2 Tcf, even with prices at current low levels.

"Without a cold blast in the late January/February timeframe, our 1Q2016 $2.50/Mcf pricing looks optimistic at this time. We expect to see stored gas competing with produced gas in late March/early April. Without supply being curtailed in the Northeast, natural gas prices likely won't recover until the winter 2016-17 season. We see $2.75/Mcf in 2017, reflecting the coal-to-gas switching demand returning to coal."

Cowen is estimating that gas demand will increase by 8.25 Bcf/d over the next three years primarily driven by growth in gas-fired power plants, LNG exports and industrial demand.

Henry Hub pricing beyond 2016 is expected to remain under pressure as the Northeast ramps up more pipeline capacity through 2018. By 2017, new pipeline capacity may outpace supply growth in the Appalachian Basin, which would lead to stronger local pricing and weaker Gulf Coast and Midwest pricing, according to Cowen analysts.

Meanwhile, Northeast producers could see some pricing improvements as operators move gas out, depressing gas growth in other regions.

"The Street consensus for 2016 natural gas pricing is currently at $2.60/Mcf," the Cowen analysts said. "We see this pricing scenario as unlikely and we assume that winter demand will cause 1Q2016 Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.50/Mcf."

Through June, an estimated 1-1.5 Bcf/d could be curtailed in the Northeast, with Henry Hub spot prices "likely" collapsing below $2.00/Mcf about that time.

Still, in the long term, Cowen expects Northeast gas producers to be best positioned for better gas prices as differentials narrow. The impact on pricing is forecast to be in 2017, "but early signs of narrowing differentials already exist."

As an example, interruptible service rates under the planned Rover Pipeline LLC project, which could begin construction this summer, now has an effective rate tariff that comes out to 70 cents/Mcf, "implying that the Dominion South/Chicago citygate (CG) spread will collapse to the cost of transportation once pipeline capacity outpaces supply growth in Southwest Appalachia in mid-2017," the analysts said.

Current Dominion South/Chicago CG basis spread annual averages "already show the spread narrowing. Dominion South basis pricing differentials tighten from a 75 cent discount to less sub-60 cents Henry Hub. Chicago CG moved from a slight premium to a 10 cent discount." By the end of 2017, Chicago CG would have the option to take gas away from three primary regions: Mid-Con (PEPL), Rockies (CIG) and Appalachia (Dominion South).

Basis spreads have collapsed before, notably from 2008 to 2010 when the Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) came online to haul gas to Midwest markets. Rockies producers had difficulty before REX to get gas out of the basin and were forced to sell gas locally at deep discounts.

"After REX came online, however, we see the spread completely collapsing to be almost on par with New York Mercantile Exchange and demand centers, since the additional pipeline capacity allowed producers to easily send their gas to where the demand was," the Cowen analysts said.

ICF International consultants Kevin Petak and Ananth Chikkatur also are less optimistic about Henry pricing -- and Northeast differentials. During a conference call hosted by Deutsche Bank, they pegged Henry to remain at the current $2.30-2.40/Mcf level through the rest of the year and into 2017. The forecast is well below ICF's estimate in October that expected 2016 gas prices to average $3.36.

"It's really because the market continues to remain relatively strong from a surprise standpoint," Petak said. "And the demand is not catching up with the supply...Basically, the wells are coming in bigger. The time to drill the wells is less. There are a lot of efficiencies on the production side of the equation that have evolved. So the Northeast pricing dynamic continues to remain relatively weak."

On demand specifically, the ICF consultants said LNG and Mexican exports were the bright spots, but they acknowledged Mexican demand could be affected by continued crude weakness. "If a rebound in oil does not occur, they see LNG exports by 2020 around 7 Bcf/d, much lower than their current forecast of 11 Bcf/d, suggesting further weak gas fundamentals," Deutsche Bank said.

Not everybody is jumping in with the bears. Jefferies LLC on Tuesday also reduced its forecast for 2016 gas prices -- but analysts said they remain gas bulls long term. The revised forecast for gas prices has been reduced in 2016 to $3.00/Mcf from $3.50 and for 2017 to $3.50 from $4.00.

"While recent supply has been slightly weaker than our forecast, demand has been weak and storage levels remain near historical highs," said Jefferies analyst Jonathan D. Wolff. "We remain bullish gas longer-term as supply should continue to fall while demand growth will tighten the supply-demand balance. Our long-term gas price forecast remains unchanged at $4.00."

Offline zuolun

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2016, 12:59:30 PM »
WTI crude oil price forecast: Will “buy the dip” in crude prevail?  ~ 29 Jun 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/06/29/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-Will-Buy-The-Dip-In-Crude-Prevail.html

A break above key resistance @ US$51/bbl opens up a run toward US$60/bbl



U.S. WTI oil closed @ US$49.88 (+2.03, +4.07%) on tightening stockpiles, broad market recovery ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-prices-up-on-pending-norway-strike-drop-in-u-s-oil-stockpiles-1467195396



Why the U.S. oil stash has shrunk 6 weeks in a row ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/29/investing/oil-glut-inventories-decline-6-weeks/



Corruption endemic in the Oil and Gas industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Corruption-Endemic-In-The-Oil-And-Gas-Industry.html



Drilling statistics reveal grim state of B.C.'s oil and gas industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.dawsoncreekmirror.ca/regional-news/lng/drilling-statistics-reveal-grim-state-of-b-c-s-oil-and-gas-industry-1.2290731



ExxonMobil: That’s a lot of oil ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/06/29/exxonmobil-thats-a-lot-of-oil



Nigeria's Minister on Brexit's impact on the oil industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=5006579497001

How will Brexit affect the oil and gas industry? ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://klfy.com/2016/06/29/how-will-brexit-affect-the-oil-and-gas-industry/

Oil price: Post-Brexit slump may not be over yet ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/60838/oil-price-post-brexit-slump-may-not-be-over-yet/page/0/41



Oil is still heading to $10 a barrel ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel



A third of California’s deep groundwater aquifers are being used for Oil and Gas ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/28/3793523/deep-groundwater-california-study/


Online king

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2016, 05:48:53 PM »



美5月原油出口
创近百年来纪录新高
288点看 2016年7月30日
(纽约30日综合电)美国能源资讯署(EIA)月度报告指出,美国原油和石油产品出口总量在5月份平均每日增加50.4万桶,至平均每日566万桶的水平,创1973年有记录以来新高。

5月每日原油出口增加7.1万桶,至平均每日66.2万桶,创1920年以来纪录新高

Online king

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Re: COMMODITIES
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2016, 06:37:38 PM »



买气见顶资金骤降
商品市场下半年恐回档
337点看 2016年8月7日
(芝加哥6日讯)大宗商品市场今年来涌入的资金攀至7年新高,但7月已首次出现疲态,显示商品买气可能已达顶峰,下半年行情可能重演回档走势。

此外,今年投资商品的资金,主要是流向黄金及原油,也凸显出商品基本面普遍堪忧。


上半年原料商品,是主要资产中表现最佳者。追踪22种原物料行情的彭博商品指数(BCI)的总报酬率超过14%,主要是靠石油、黄豆、锌及黄金带动。

巴克莱银行指出,1到7月商品基金净流入额达510亿美元(2040亿令吉)。流入的新资金中,贵金属类约占60%,主要是瞄准黄金指数型股票基金(ETF),原油ETF也受欢迎。

新资金源源流入,加上商品价格上涨,已使商品基金的资产总额,从去年底时的1610亿美元(6440亿令吉),增加到目前的2350亿美元(9400亿令吉)。

避险基金投机客减持

但7月商品基金净流入额仅24亿美元(96亿令吉),为7个月来最低。从7月初迄今,彭博商品指数也下跌6.5%,使今年来的涨幅缩小到6.9% ,主因油价下跌,7月来布仑特油价已回跌16%。

下半年通常是商品的回档期。过去5年来,商品价格上半年平均跌3%,下半年跌11%,而2014及2015年下半年商品价格,都出现逾20%的跌幅。

巴克莱银行指出,下半年商品的表现不会这样差,因为油价将因供给量削减而反弹。

投资人对商品兴趣下降的另一信号,是避险基金及其他投机客从6月起,已将18种商品的净多单减少达38%。

巴克莱银行分析师罗瑞许表示,今年投资人的需求以“战术性”为主,若下半年投资报酬率不强,资金可能从商品市场流出,但全年仍将是净流入。


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