Author Topic: BULL VS BEAR  (Read 1081 times)

Offline king

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« on: May 10, 2016, 06:02:03 PM »

With A Historic -150% Net Short Position, Carl Icahn Is Betting On An Imminent Market Collapse
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016 20:58 -0400

Apple Carl Icahn CDS High Yield Market Crash Meltdown

Over the past year, based on his increasingly more dour media appearances, billionaire Carl Icahn had been getting progressively more bearish. At first, he was mostly pessimistic about junk bonds, saying last May that "what's even more dangerous than the actual stock market is the high yield market." As the year progressed his pessimism become more acute and in December he said that the "meltdown in high yield is just beginning." It culminated in February when he said on CNBC that a "day of reckoning is coming."

Some skeptics thought that Icahn was simply trying to scare investors into selling so he could load up on risk assets at cheaper prices, however that line of thought was quickly squashed two weeks ago when Icahn announced to the shock of ever Apple fanboy that several years after his "no brainer" investment in AAPL, Icahn had officially liquidated his entire stake.

As it turns out, Icahn's AAPL liquidation was just the appetizer of how truly bearish the legendary investor has become.

* * *

As readers will recall, when it comes to what we believe is one of the world's most bearish hedge funds, we traditionally highlight the net exposure of Horseman Global, which not only has been profitable for the past four years, it has done so while running a net short book. To the point, as of March 31, Horseman was net short by a record 98%.


As it turns out this was nothing compare to Icahn's latest net exposure.

In the just disclosed 10-Q of Icahn's investment vehicle, Icahn Enterprises LP in which the 80 year old holds a 90% stake, we find that as of March 31, Carl Icahn - who subsequently divested his entire long AAPL exposure - has been truly putting money, on the short side, where his mouth was in the past quarter. So much so that what on December 31, 2015 was a modest 25% net short, has since exploded into a gargantuan, and unprecedented for Icahn, 149% net short position.

This is the result of a relatively flat long gross exposure of 164% resulting from a 156% equity and 8% credit long (a combined long exposure which is certainly far lower following the AAPL liquidation), and a soaring short book which has exploded from 150% as of March 31, 2015 to a whopping 313% one year later, on the back of 277% in gross short equity exposure and 36% short credit.


Putting this number in context, in the history of IEP, not only has Icahn never been anywhere near this short, but just one year ago when he first started complaining about stocks, he was still 4% net long. Thos days are gone, and starting in Q3 and Q4, Icahn proceeded to wage into net short territory, with roughly -25% exposure, a number that has increased a record six-fold in just the last quarter!

What is just as notable is the dramatic leverage involved on both sides of the flatline, but nothing compares to the near 3x equity leverage on the short side (this is not CDS). As a reminder, Icahn Enterprises used to be run as a hedge fund with outside investors, but Icahn returned outside money in 2011, leaving IEP and Icahn as the two dominant investors.  According to Barron's, the entire fund appears to be about $5.8 billion, with $4 billion coming from Icahn personally. Which means that this is a very substantial bet in dollar terms.

When asked about this unprecedented bearish position, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza said during the May 5 earnings call that "Carl has been very vocal in recent weeks in the media about his negative views." He certainly has been, although many though he was merely exagerating. He was not.

"We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%. And so the significant weighting to the short side reflects that," Cozza added.

Icahn was not personally present at the conference call, however now that his bet on what is arguably a massive market crash has become public, we are confident he will be on both CNBC and Bloomberg TV in the coming days if not hours, to provide damage control and to avoid a panic as mom and pop investors scramble, and wonder just what does one of the world's most astute investors see that they don't.

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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2016, 07:34:32 AM »

Milton Berg: "We Are On The Cusp Of A 30 Year Bear Market"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016 16:39 -0400

Bear Market Central Banks Equity Markets fixed Germany Hyperinflation Japan New York Stock Exchange

At the SALT conference, MB Advisors founder and CEO Milton Berg gave an epic interview with Erik Schatzker in which Berg predicted that we are on the verge of a 30 year bear market in both equity and fixed income, and he also gave some sage advice to the average retail investor on what to do with their money at this point.

This is how Milton Berg explains his prediction

"I think we're at the cusp of a bear market in both stocks and bonds that will last up to thirty years. This is on a real basis, not on a nominal basis, inflation adjusted basis."
Here is the reason why Berg believes you can invest in the market today, go to sleep, wake up thirty years later and have made no money...

"Well, it is not unheard of in history. As you know there was a bear market in bonds lasting maybe forty years that began in the mid-40's and ended in 1980. We've had a twenty, twenty five year bear market in Japan going back to 1989. We're the most overvalued market in history, there's more leverage throughout the world than there's ever been in history, central banks have lost all their ammunition, basically because there is so much credit outstanding throughout the world. It's not unheard of to have a long-term bear market. There will be a lot of money to be made both on the downside and the upside within the bear market."
Milton then explains that world-wide, this is currently the most over valued equity market in history

"World-wide, looking at all the equity markets we're definitely at the most over-valued. P/E ratios on the New York Stock Exchange are just above the P/E ratio at the trough of 2009, the median P/E ratio. Markets are way over valued. If you look at where yields were thirty, fourty years ago when you got five, six, seven percent and now you're getting one percent, one and a half percent yield, way over valued."
When asked what would happen if central bankers were to follow through on their whatever it takes promises, Berg gave the most rational response, which is that everything is relative.

"If whatever it takes means Zimbabwe, or hyperinflation Germany, stocks will do well, but not relative to the inflation rate."
Furthering his comments around central banks, Berg delivered some truthiness to the fact that creating more debt won't fix anything in the system, and as a matter of fact, will simply make the outcome worse once the bubble pops.

"They're doing something that makes no sense with negative rates, but there's so much credit in the system that just allowing people to borrow more money doesn't really help the system. It just causes a greater bubble, which ultimately will deflate. It's one big world-wide bubble, the central banks are all acting in unison, so once this bubble pricks it's going to be pretty terrible."
Milton finishes by giving the average retail investor some sage advice:

"The typical investor should be out of stocks and out of bonds, wait for a crisis, and buy during the crisis. Put your money under the pillow and wait until the next crisis."
Milton is spot on, and here is a reminder of just how far down it is from here if markets enter bear territory (and could serve as a quick sanity check on current valuation levels).

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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2016, 09:01:53 AM »

2016-02-16 04:38 經濟日報 記者魏興中、簡威瑟/台北報導

股市大師胡立陽。 圖/經濟日報提供


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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 07:12:40 AM »

BofA: "If You Go Down To The Woods Today It Will Be Full Of Bears"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2016 18:12 -0400

China Japan Lehman Stagflation

Just days after Bank of America's equity team joined Goldman, JPM, Citi, UBS and pretty much every other bank (and Gartman) forecasting a market drop in the imminent future with a report laying out "Nine "Reasons To Worry" About A Big Market Drop", BofA's cross asset team led by chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett is out with some of his own words of "encouragement", to wit.

If you go down to the woods today… it will be full of bears. Investors positioned for “summer of shocks”: FMS cash levels up from 5.4% to a high 5.5%; only 12% taking “higher-than-normal” risk; most crowded trade “long quality”. Based on FMS positions, contrarians should be moderately long risk via UK, Japan, tech & industrials, and take profits in EM, energy, discretionary.
What Hartnett is referring to is that according to BofA's latest Fund Managers Survey, Investors are positioned for "summer of shocks" with
cash levels up to a high 5.5%, one of the highest prints since the Lehman failure.


But what has professional investors so spooked?

For the answer we look at the monthly survey question what FMS respondents believe is the biggest tail risk. Here, surprisingly, we find that after two months of everyone fretting about "quantitative failure", or the Fed losing control over markets more than anything, this is now only the third biggest concern and there is a new biggest "tail risk" - Brexit, followed in second place by "China devaluations/defaults", a worry that did not appear on anyone's radar one month ago.

Also curious: the spike in worries about "US politics" (which we are confident will only rise higher in the coming months) and the arrival of a brand new worry: stagflation. Why? Perhaps as we noted in our April 1 post "The Next Big Problem: "Stagflation Is Starting To Show Across The Economy."

While we doubt a Brexit will play out (if there was a real threat of a Brexit, the population would not be allowed to vote in the first place), we are curious which concern will dominate in the coming months, especially if inflation, pardon stagflation, indeed continues to be an increasingly prevalent threat to the US economy

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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2016, 09:33:23 AM »

Signs of fear are running rampant through the market
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
8 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The signs of market fear are everywhere, from deep-pocketed hedge funders on Wall Street to mom-and-pop investors in flyover country.

A year after the market reached record highs and it looked like there was nothing that could stop what has become the second-longest bull market in history, market participants are pulling money off the table and heading for cover.


Hedge funds are at their lowest net long position in four years, at 44 percent, after hitting a record long of 57 percent in early 2015, according to Goldman Sachs.
Money is draining again from equity funds after a period of reversal. Equity-based funds (both mutual and exchange traded) have seen outflows approaching $100 billion in 2016, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The outflows come at a time when the retail crowd is feeling the heat as well. Bullish sentiment dropped to 19.3 percent in this week's American Association of Individual Investors survey, its lowest level since mid-February and only the ninth time since 1990 that optimism fell below the 20 percent mark.
A combination of unease over the path of central bank policy both in the U.S. and abroad, the possibility of a destabilizing British exit from the European Union, and tepid economic growth have investors unwilling to commit new cash to a market that appears at least somewhat overvalued.

Cash dollars
Companies are planning to spend $600 billion on this losing strategy
"In reality, it's still the fear of the unknown," said Michael Cohn, chief investment strategist at Atlantis Asset Management. "The fact is, nothing has really changed. The fear out there is that there is another shoe to drop somewhere down the road."
On a more micro level, there are a variety of explanations both for investor apprehension and the weak market performance that has seen the S&P 500 drop nearly 3.5 percent over the past 12 months as of Thursday's close.

Hedge funds, for one, have been battered by wrong-way bets in the long-short category, with stocks that managers bet against strongly outperforming the most-owned long bets, according to Goldman. Hedge funds within the Goldman universe — accounting for $1.9 trillion in the $3 trillion industry — have lost about 1 percent for the year.

For individual investors, popular names like Apple have gotten crushed while energy, which became kryptonite after oil's fall, are the leaders in the S&P 500. The top five individual performers in the index are all energy-related, and the sector itself was up 9.7 percent in 2016 as of early Friday trading, second only to utilities. Investors have pulled $95.8 billion from equity funds this year, the bulk from mutual funds ($82.7 billion) but ETFs also have surrendered more than $13 billion, according to BofAML.

There is also the weak corporate earnings picture, down 7.1 percent in the first quarter.

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But the overall picture goes beyond valuation and into a general worry that the market is missing something.

"Me as a money manager, trying to predict what the market is going to do based on valuations is sort of a *'s game," Cohn said. "Markets don't drop precipitously because they're overvalued, markets drop precipitously because some exogenous event happens."

If such reasoning sounds a little panicky, there's good reason.

In fact, Citigroup's proprietary Panic/Euphoria Model is registering a -0.37 reading. For context purposes, a reading below -0.17 is considered panic, so the model is well into that territory. As a contrarian indicator, Citi strategist Tobias Levkovich said the model is indicating a "better than 95 percent chance of market appreciation."

Citi isn't alone with seeing a buying opportunity, at least in the near term, though there are only pockets of conviction on Wall Street.

JPMorgan strategists, for instance, see a bumpy road ahead but the S&P 500 generally holding around the 2,000 level, or a bit below the current price. Canaccord Genuity, on the other hand, believes the fear is setting up opportunity. The firm has an optimistic 2,340 price target by the end of 2017, which would equate to more than a 13.5 percent price gain over the next year and a half that would reverse the pattern of the past year.

"We now believe the longer-term fundamental and tactical backdrop warrant being more aggressive buyers on any further near-term weakness the fear of these events bring," Canaccord equity strategist Tony Dwyer said in a note. "The combination of historic monetary accommodation, better economic readings, a positive inflection in EPS beginning 2Q16, and the historic turn in market breadth and credit warrant a more aggressive position."

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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2016, 09:50:24 AM »

It's going to end badly, but you have to buy: Strategist
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

"The only thing that's left is buying the S&P."
-Dwyer on finding value in today's economy
One of Wall Street top strategists believes the best is yet to come for equity investors in the coming year—but the rally is unlikely to have a happy ending if the Federal Reserve doesn't act.

"Improvement in credit, energy and emerging currencies leads to higher prices over time," said Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist for Canaccord Genuity, on CNBC's "Fast Money" this week. "I think you have multiple expansion in front of us with some top-line growth with a better global economy."


inRead invented by Teads
Dwyer just initiated a new 2017 S&P 500 Index price target of 2,340, which represents a 14 percent increase from current levels. Ultimately, he's calling for a 15-20 percent rise in the S&P 500 in the next 6 to 12 months, with a belief that earnings will improve while global volatility will subside.

Surveying the landscape, two of the world's most troubled economies—Europe and China—are showing signs of stability, he said.

"The leading economic indicators are still positive in the euro zone, and leading economic indicators are sequentially improving in China," added Dwyer. "What if there are surprises to the upside and you get some economic vitality and you get some ramp in earnings? There's your multiple expansion."

Still, pockets of softness in the current earnings period keep the picture murky. For the first quarter, the blended revenue growth estimate is -1.8 percent with 96 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported as of Friday, and 52 percent of companies reported revenue above analyst expectations. According to Reuters, a typical quarter sees 60 percent of companies beating expectations.

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However, Dwyer cited 74 straight months of payroll growth, weekly initial unemployment insurance claims being at a multi-decade low in addition to consumer confidence nearing a cyclical high, as reasons for optimism.

Meanwhile, the investor added that getting through June with limited volatility is key, as potential hurdles for investors include an OPEC producer meeting in Vienna, Austria early next month. Separately, a referendum on the 23rd regarding Britain's decision to leave the European Union is seen as a big wild card for the market.

'It's not different this time'

Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Even in light of those factors, Dwyer still remains positive.

"The combination of historic monetary accommodation, better economic readings, a positive inflection in [earnings per share] beginning in the second quarter, and the historic turn in market breadth and credit warrant a more aggressive position," the strategist said.

For additional context, Dwyer referenced historical trends in the market dating back to the 1970's, when inflation was at 14 percent and the S&P 500 operating earnings price/earnings ratio (P/E) was at 8.

"Unless you're in recession, you don't peak a bull market until when you combine the operating earnings P/E and inflation," said Dwyer. In other words, he believes history will repeat itself, similar to when the S&P rallied nearly 70 percent and P/E hit 22 from 1974 to 1976.

Dwyer compared the current standing of the U.S. economy to where it was from 1992 to 1994, when the Fed funds rate went from over 9 percent to 3 percent.

"It's not different this time. It's just taking a lot longer," he said. "The catalyst for change isn't time. It's the Fed."

Mark Wilson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Despite his relatively constructive outlook, Dwyer saw a big risk to the scenario: The market will be neutered if the Federal Reserve doesn't act on interest rates soon. Recently, remarks from central bank hinted that a rate hike could be in play as early as June.

Ultimately, Dwyer believes that the Fed needs to raise rates enough to invert the yield curve in order to significantly affect economic activity and credit. Dwyer is adamant that the U.S. can't effectively reduce its debt with even more debt.

"This is going to end so badly, but we're on the right side of it," Dwyer said, referring to where investors can find value at the moment. "The only thing that's left is buying the S&P."

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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2016, 11:31:39 AM »

Second half rally is coming - here's why: Technician
Re-Essa Buckels   | @ReessaBuckels
12 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

It's been a year since stocks last made and all-time high, the first time that's happened since 2012.

Despite the lack of progress, however, one noted technician is getting bullish on stocks.

"We think we could possibly seeing some returning strength in the second half of the year," said Ari Wald Oppenheimer's top technician told CNBC's "Fast Money" this week.
"It's been a frustrating year. It's been a year since we've peaked," said Wald. "It's been frustrating for bulls, it's been frustrating for bears, it's been frustrating for everyone," he added.

By Wald's chart work, the S&P 500 Index could see some near-term weakness, but ultimately push itself higher. Since 2013, the index has formed a topping pattern that has limited gains, according to the technician. But he says that pattern has run its course and better times could soon be ahead.
"We think the S&P 500 could start to carve out a bottom," said Wald.

Wald is also encouraged by the number of stocks that have been participating in the rally—referred to as breadth among technicians. According to Wald, changes in market breadth has signaled inflection points for the broader market.

"These crossovers have been terrific tactical trading signals over the last year," said Wald.

Wald also noted improving credit conditions. Recently, prices for corporate debt have reversed higher. Typically, that has been a positive sign for the market.

"I don't think you have the same risk of high volatile selling," said Wald

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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2016, 07:08:54 AM »

Warning Signs Everywhere
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2016 16:25 -0400

Bear Market China Debt Ceiling default Federal Reserve Japan Meltdown Monetary Policy Price Action QE-2 Reality Recession

Submitted by Lance Roberts via,

Over the last several weeks, I have discussed the markets entrance into the “Seasonally Weak” period of the year and the breakout of the market above the downtrend line that began last year.

The rally from the February lows, driven by a tremendous amount of short covering, once again ignited “bullish optimism.”

“Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer estimates the equity benchmark will end 2017 at 2,340, an increase of 15 percent from Wednesday’s closing level of 2,047.63, with half of the gains coming this year.”
But it is not just Tony that is buying into the “optimistic” story, but investors also as the number of stocks on “bullish buy signals” has exploded since the February lows.


While the “bulls” are quick to point out the current rebound much resembles that of 2011, I have made notes of the differences between 2011 and 2008. The reality is the current market set up is more closely aligned with the early stages of a bear market reversal.

It is the last point that I want to follow up with this week.

There is little argument that the bulls are clearly in charge of the market currently as the rally from the recent lows has been quite astonishing. However, as I noted recently, the current rally looks extremely similar to that seen following last summer’s swoon.


Well, here we are once again entering into the “seasonally weak” period of the year. Will the bullish hopes prevail? Maybe. But.


Warning Signs Everywhere

Many have pointed to the recent correction as a repeat of the 2011 “debt ceiling default” crisis. Of course, the real issue in 2011 was the economic impact of the Japanese tsunami/earthquake/meltdown trifecta, combined with the absence of liquidity support following the end of QE-2, which led to a sharp drop in economic activity. While many might suggest that the current environment is similar, there is a marked difference.

The fall/winter of 2011 was fueled by comments, and actions, of accommodative policies by the Federal Reserve as they instituted “operation twist” and a continuation of the “zero interest rate policy” (ZIRP). Furthermore, the economy was boosted in the third and fourth quarters of 2011 as oil prices fell, Japan manufacturing came back on-line to fill the void of pent-up demand for inventory restocking and the warmest winter in 65-years which gave a boost to consumers wallets and allowed for higher rates of production.


2015-16 is a much different picture.

First, while the Federal Reserve is still reinvesting proceeds from the bloated $4 Trillion balance sheet, which provides for intermittent pops of liquidity into the financial market, they have begun to “tighten” monetary policy by ending QE3 and increasing the overnight lending rate. As shown below, the changes to the Fed’s balance sheet is highly correlated to the movements of the S&P 500 index as liquidity is induced and extracted from the financial system.


Secondly, despite hopes of stronger rates of economic growth, it appears that the domestic economy is weakening considerably as the effects of a global deflationary slowdown wash back onto the U.S. economy.


Third, while “services” seems to be holding up despite a slowdown in “manufacturing,” the service sector is being obfuscated by sharp increases in “healthcare” spending due to sharply rising costs of healthcare premiums. While the diversion of spending is inflating the services related part of the economy, it is not a representation of a stronger “real” economy that creates jobs and increased wages.


Fourth, the US dollar, as I addressed in this past weekend’s missive, is back on the rise.

“Well, with the revelation of the recent FOMC minutes the worries about a June rate hike, as suspected, have indeed surfaced sending the US dollar spiking above resistance.”

If the Fed hikes rates in June, as is currently expected, higher rates will attract foreign money into US Treasuries in search of a higher yield. The dollar will subsequently strengthen further impacting commodity and oil prices, as well as increase the drag on companies with international exposure. Exports, which make up more than 40% of corporate profits, are sharply impacting results in more than just “energy-related” areas. This is not just a “profits recession,” it is a “revenue recession” which are two different things.


Lastly, it is important to remember that US markets are not an “island.” What happens in global financial markets will ultimately impact the U.S. The chart below shows the S&P 500 as compared on a performance basis to the MSCI Emerging Markets and Developed International indices. Notice the previous correlation in the overall indices as compared to today. Currently, the weakness in the international markets is being dismissed by investors, but it most likely should not be considering the ECB’s recent “bazooka” of QE which has clearly failed.



Lack Of Low Hanging Fruit

As I suggested previously, the “seasonally weak” period of the year may be a good opportunity to reduce risk as we head into the “dog days of summer.”

“Does this absolutely mean that markets will break to the downside and retest February lows? Of course, not. However, throw into the mix ongoing high-valuations, uncertainty about what actions the Federal Reserve may take, ongoing geopolitical risks, concerns over China, potential for a stronger dollar or further weakness in oil – well, you get the idea. There are plenty of catalysts to push stocks lower during what is typically an already weak period.
Should you ‘sell in May and go away?’  That decision is entirely up to you. There is never certainty in the market, but the deck this summer seems much more stacked than usual against investors who are taking on excessive equity based risk. The question you really need to answer is whether the ‘reward’ is really worth the ‘risk?’”
While the recent rally has certainly been encouraging, it has failed to materially change the underlying momentum and relative strength indicators substantially enough to suggest a return to a more structurally sound bull market. (valuations not withstanding)


With price action still confirming relative weakness, and the recent rally primarily focused in the largest capitalization based companies, the action remains more reminiscent of a market topping process than the beginning of a new leg of the bull market. As shown in the last chart below, the current “topping process,” when combined with underlying “sell signals,” is very different than the action witnessed in 2011.


While I am not suggesting that the market is on the precipice of the next “financial crisis,” I am suggesting that the current market dynamics are not as stable as they were following the correction in 2011. This is particularly the case given the threat of a “tightening” of monetary policy combined with significantly weaker economic underpinnings.

The challenge for investors over the next several months will be the navigation of the “seasonally weak” period of the year against a backdrop of warning signals. Importantly, while the “always bullish” media tends to dismiss warning signs as “just being bearish,” historically such unheeded warnings have ended badly for individuals. It is my suspicion that this time will likely not be much different, the challenge will just be knowing when to leave the “party.”

“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.” – Peter Lynch

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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2016, 06:31:21 PM »

Jim Rogers: Brexit Blowback "Worse Than Any Bear Market You've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jun 27, 2016 11:15 PM
When it comes to being direct and offering up some truth, one can rest assured that Jim Rogers is a prime candidate to do both.

In an interview with Yahoo! Finance, the legendary investor had some candid and quite unnerving things to say about the global market in the aftermath of Brexit.

"This is going to be worse than any bear market that you've seen in your lifetime. 2008 was pretty bad because of debt, well the debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US for instance have been going sideways for 18 months, 24 months. That's called distribution by many people, so when you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things."
If that was too upbeat, Rogers unveils his bear scenario:

"The bear scenario, the bad scenario is that Scotland now leaves and takes the oil money, the city of London gets whacked by Europe, they lose a lot of income. The UK already has huge international debts, and it has balance of trade problems, budget problems, so the bear case is the pound disappears and England becomes Spain, or Poland, or Italy or something."
"It won't happen anytime soon but the deterioration will continue, it makes stocks go down a lot. Remember, stock markets are anticipating the future, they see that happening it will now lead to many other separatist moments in the EU. This is going to encourage a lot of separatist movement, I'm not saying it's good or bad I'm just telling you what's going to happen, or what the bear case is, that if all that happens we all should be very worried."
Regarding where EU will be five years from now, Rogers doesn't believe it will even exist:

"The EU as we know it now will not exist, the Euro as we know it will not exist."
On how to play this market now,

"I'll tell you what I'm doing, people have to make their own decisions, going into this I'm long the US Dollar, I'm short US stocks, I own some Chinese shares, I own agriculture around the world. These are things that might do well no matter what happens going forward. These are going to be perilous times, I hope I get it right."

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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2016, 05:59:28 AM »

Why The Bulls Have It Wrong This Time
Jun.29.16 | About: SPDR S&P (SPY) Get Alerts
Nima Karamlou   Nima KaramlouFollow(100 followers)
Long/short equity, value, special situations, hedge fund manager
Send Message|BlackVault Investments Homepage

The Bulls have it wrong; Equities will not outperform in 2016.

We have adjusted our fair value S&P outlook amid the recent leave victory in the UK.

Heightened uncertainty will cast a shadow on an already fragile global economy.

We have had a weekend to digest the market movements and the implications of a Brexit victory in the UK. As predicted, the markets didn't like it and the bulls were wrong once again. I have seen multiple narratives regarding the fact that Brexit has provided a buying opportunity, and that nothing has changed. I personally am frustrated by these narratives because they seem rather baseless. Perhaps there are those who think that the Fed has their back. But thinking realistically, is that a compelling reason to own stocks? In my opinion, it is not. I would further extend my argument that this vote has added fuel to an already growing fire. The implications of the Brexit don't fully relate to Britain or even Europe. They extend greater. The shadow of uncertainty that has been cast has caused a repricing of risk assets that were initially expected to perform well in 2H 2016. I think it is prudent to examine a few important points: Valuations, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Risks.


A lot of investors knows that equities are overvalued. Analysts have pegged future estimates too high and are gradually bringing down their estimates as we near 2H 2016 as growth has not yet picked up to the extent many were hoping. I personally find it odd that the S&P 500 should be trading at near all time highs given the fact that earnings have declined for 4 quarters, the disparity between GAAP and non-GAAP continues to grow, and the continuing deterioration in fundamental economic drivers. Furthermore, with the dollar strengthening again, the once-hoped dollar decline that would be a tailwind for earnings has faded. The dollar continues to strengthen against major currencies as currency markets are pricing in economic weakness around the globe. We could expect to see a potential cut to commodity earnings expectations should the dollar continue higher, further dragging out the story of commodity weakness.

According to the Schiller PE Index, Stocks are trading at 25.3x EPS against a historical mean of 16.7x. That is a 51.1% premium to the mean value suggesting that investors are expecting earnings to improve in future periods. True that stocks have been given a premium due to low yields from government bonds; however, we would like to point out that over the long run, equities rely on improvement in fundamentals, which is not what is being seen. We are dubious to this conclusion. My assumption is that Street estimates have caused investors to bid up prices in the hope of a future rebound in earnings. While this must ultimately come, its looking less likely that it will come this year. According to FactSet, earnings estimates have slowly come down.

According to the EarningsScout, earnings estimates are continuing to be pulled down as they are excessively high.

Q3 expectations have come down drastically ahead of the Brexit vote. This trend will likely continue as the dollar's recent rally will likely continue as other currencies weaken around the globe hampering corporate profits.

As you can see, the dollar has recently bucked the weakening trend seen in most of 2016, providing another headwind to the S&P 500.

Q4 expectations remain elevated, but will likely come down as the Street adjusts for a stronger dollar and continued declines in Q2 and Q3. These scenarios likely will be an underlying catalyst for a correction in stocks to fair value of about 1850 as investors adjust for a period of global uncertainty. We believe the Brexit fallout will be the #1 reason investors will take notice of the elevated PE of the market. It is our consensus view that US Stocks should not be trading at all time highs given the lackluster growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic Risk:

A large driver of weak corporate earnings is a weak global economy. We would like to argue that the economic risks have grown as Europe is seen having weaker than expected growth. This is a problem as the eurozone economy is already running on fumes amid record breaking stimulus jolts by the ECB. We will examine the global economic outlook, with an emphasis on the eurozone economy amid the recent leave victory in the UK.


Bulls have come out to say that European stocks look valuable despite the weakening outlook. I would suggest that this is far from the truth. The eurozone economy is running on fumes amid weakening productivity growth, a growing rift in demographics, and weak overall global demand.

We expect that business investment spending will weaken amid growing uncertainty over the fate of the EU. This will be more pronounced in the UK. Ultimately, this will certainly drag the UK, and possibly the EU, into a mild recession that could be exacerbated should further shocks from Asia and the US come. We suspect that the markets are dubious to the chances of a Eurozone collapse despite growing calls for further referendums and weakening confidence in businesses. Ultimately, these economic developments will continue to weigh on the GBP/ USD and EUR/ USD. Expect gains in the Swiss Franc.

Elsewhere, the outlook for China has been ignored as the Chinese Central Bank continues to weaken the Yuan. The growing leverage in the Chinese economy has many concerns. We have been short the Yuan since mid-May and are expecting further devaluations should the dollar strengthen further. Moreover, we would agree with Kyle Bass in his conclusions regarding the Yuan. Any negative newsflow out of China will likely cause a further shock to an already fragile market.

The US economy continues to sputter along, albeit at a stronger level than other major economies. Nevertheless, we expect negative surprises to forward estimates for economic growth as the jobs market strength looks to be a negative rather than a positive. Furthermore, the manufacturing weakness will likely continue further as the growing geopolitical risks in Europe and in America will likely weigh on spending. Furthermore, the surprising weakness in the heavily monitored service sector has many worried. Another recent article on Seeking Alpha discussing the Flash PMI suggests that 2Q GDP will register at around the same pace as in Q1, well below expectations of >2%.

We believe that weak growth does not justify elevated PEs and are yet another compelling reason to avoid equities.

Below we have inserted GDP estimates provided by Morgan Stanley. We feel that these assumptions are reasonable given the current macro climate, although we would note that a negative GDP print is likely out of the UK in 1H 2017.

Geopolitical Risks:

Growing geopolitical risks are another factor that will weigh on markets. The EU Referendum results, we believe, have set the stage for a deterioration of the Eurozone. Much of this will be driven by the rise of nationalistic sentiment in the Eurozone. This presents issues for the eurozone as there is a disparity of economic strength among all of the Euro nations. Any dismemberment of the eurozone will likely begin with a secession of the peripheral nations. This scenario is particularly dangerous as currency implosions in Europe will send further shockwaves throughout the globe. It is also prudent to note that the victory for the leave campaign has cast a shadow of uncertainty on the US presidential elections. This uncertainty will remain and will limit further equity gains.


In a world of weak global growth and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, we find it irrational for one to be overweight in stocks. We have adjusted 2 scenarios for the year-end S&P projections.

We expect that the S&P 500 will close the year below the 2000 mark as multiple contraction will occur leading into the election as investors reassess positioning amid weaker than expected growth. In our weak case, we could see a potential breaking of S&P 500 support levels. This scenario could be likely should we get further weakness from economic numbers. Ultimately, this environment provides no compelling reason to be long in US Stocks, and certainly not European stocks. We continue to be short SPY and QQQ through puts. We are also short the Yuan. We closed out our GBP/ USD short on Friday.

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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2016, 06:21:56 PM »

Are you ready for the most bullish day of the year?

By Simon Maierhofer
Published: June 29, 2016 3:16 p.m. ET

Getty Images
Battered investors are looking for light at the end of the tunnel. Here is at least a small glimmer: The most bullish day of the year is here. According to Stock Traders Almanac, July 1 (or which day is the first trading day of July) is the most bullish day of the year.

Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time on the first trading day of July. The average gain is 0.46%.

Those are pretty good odds, but it's only one day. Assuming July 1 is an up day, there is obviously a bigger issue: Is this actually light at the end of the tunnel or just another train (dead-cat bounce)?

Real light or just another train?

Remember, though that not every July 1 is created equal. No other July 1 occurred right after a Brexit vote. Here is how this particular July 1 (and even the Brexit stock market blow) fits into the bigger picture.

The bigger picture

The S&P 500 is currently digesting and retracing the rally from 1,810 (Feb. 11) to 2,120 (June 8). The June 8 Profit Radar Report recommended to short the S&P 500 at 2,110 as an insurance trade against lower prices. The downside potential was quantified via the June 19 update with the following chart and commentary:

"Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the S&P finished 5-waves up to complete wave 1 on June 8 at 2,120.55 (see chart below). Next should be a wave 2 decline. Waves 2 tend to retrace a Fibonacci 50%-61.8% of the prior move. The ideal target range for a wave 2 correction is 1,970-1,925."

On June 27, the S&P closed an open chart gap at 1,992.63. Chart gaps act as magnets, and with this magnet gone, downside pressure subsided. In fact, two very specific price patterns occurred that day, which suggest an upcoming bounce (outlined by the June 27 Profit Radar Report).

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has not yet reached the ideal down side target, and the bullish July 1 is unlikely to bring any lasting relief, at least not yet.

The S&P 500 just suffered a panic selloff like in August 2015 and January 2016. Although the media puts a different label/reason on each panic decline, history suggests that post-panic selloffs follow a somewhat predictable pattern.

A detailed description of this pattern and what it suggests is next is discussed here: S&P 500 Forecast.

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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 08:22:18 AM »

Cramer Remix: Stocks are in a strange nirvana. Here's why
CNBC By Abigail Stevenson
June 29, 2016 7:21 PM
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Jim Cramer sees a brand new phenomenon at work in the stock market.

On a day like Wednesday, investors simply just wanted to pay more for stocks than they did the day before. The phenomenon is called re-rating, where stocks are upgraded to a "buy" from a "hold" simply because of good news that is completely separate from the overall stock market.

In fact, in many ways the market is right back to where it was before the U.K. vote. Once again, stocks are taking their cue from the price of oil.

Oil once again bounced from the $46 level that it hit after the Brexit vote, and now it's back at $49. That is the level before the U.K. vote.

"That reflects some genuine strength in the economy and is very positive for stocks," Cramer said.

Even better, this time around the fear of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve is off the table because of the turmoil overseas. The combination of higher oil prices and less likelihood of higher interest rates has launched the U.S. market into what Cramer described as a "weird version of stock nirvana."

With the world distracted by a Brexit this week, Cramer has watched China suddenly gain amazing strength .

As the world's second-largest economy, China matters a heck of a lot more to Cramer than the U.K., which is the fifth largest economy.

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China's strength has manifested via a 2.7 percent rally in the Shanghai composite and multiple positive days for the Baltic Freight index. This suggested to Cramer that China is importing raw goods. The rally in oil and rebound in copper also indicated that China has increased demand.

"There is no denying that the global financial system is in worse shape ever since the U.K.'s Brexit vote … but the same apparently cannot be said for China," Cramer said.

The data all added up to China being up, not down for Cramer, as he speculated that this could be the reason why the blow of a Brexit seems to have softened.

Retail in the U.S., though, has not been as successful as China. Since peaking last year, Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Macy's (NYSE: M), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) are all down more than 50 percent.

The only exceptions were the ones that were already in free fall for years, such as J.C. Penny (NYSE: JCP) and Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD).

"Things have gotten so bad for this cohort that we need to start asking ourselves which of them have what it takes to survive this ultra-hostile environment," Cramer said.

Cramer analyzed each company for its ability to withstand the popularity of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and the decline of the shopping mall.

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"While I would stay away from all the department stores here, from a pure survivability perspective, Nordstrom is the most safe, followed by J.C. Penney, then Dillard's and Kohl's tied for fourth and the awful Sears Holdings coming in dead last," Cramer said.

At a moment when retail is finally starting to turn around, Cramer recommended that the stronger plays are worth a long trade, and those stuck in a bad stock could have a chance to sell it into strength soon.

As the world's No. 3 largest maker of agriculture equipment, Cramer has started to wonder if AGCO could be part of a turnaround in the agriculture space. The company reported a strong quarter in April, with a top and bottom line beat that included robust full-year guidance.

AGCO announced on Wednesday that it will purchase Cimbria Holdings for $340 million in an effort to bolster its seed and grain processing business. The consolidation was confirmation for Cramer that there could indeed be a turnaround occurring.

To learn more, he spoke with AGCO's chairman and CEO Martin Richenhagen, who commented on the cycle of the agriculture space.

"I think that we are close to bottoming out. Hopefully it will bottom out this year, and I'm slightly more optimistic for 2017. We will perform pretty well. I think we will deliver on what we promised … Brexit is a no-brainer for us," Richenhagen said.

Sonic Corporation was once regarded as one of the only fast-casual restaurant chains that could thrive in a McDonald's dominated industry. However, after reporting a strong quarter in March and peaking in April, the stock has fallen more than 24 percent.

Cramer pointed to the weakness stemming from a deceleration in same-store sales growth reported in earnings last week, down to 2 percent from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter. While Sonic reiterated full-year guidance, management acknowledged an industry-wide slowdown possibly because of unseasonably rainy weather in April and May.

Cramer spoke with Sonic's chairman and CEO Cliff Hudson, on Sonic's perspective of what happened.

"We are certainly aware and comfortable with initiatives that we have underway. What we are less certain about is what is happening with the consumer. Some say the consumer is going through an attitudinal shift — on a broad basis, I'm not just talking about the Sonic consumer — but on a broad basis in that late April into May time frame," Hudson said.

In the Lightning Round, Cramer gave his take on a few caller favorite stocks:

Spark Therapeutics: "They are an incredibly speculative stock. We happen to have a couple of biotechs that actually showed some very wild moves today. Some cut in half, and some doubling. I have to tell you, this company just did a secondary. That makes me uneasy."

General Electric: "If Jeff Immelt [CEO] goes with Nelson Peltz's plan — that's Trian, and Trian has made a lot of money — than he'll be buying back stock hand-over-fist, and you should too. It's one of the largest positions in my charitable trust. I think you should own GE.

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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2016, 02:14:43 PM »















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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2017, 03:25:55 PM »

Wall Street banks warn winter is coming; here's why
Bloomberg|Updated: Aug 24, 2017, 09.02 AM IST

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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2017, 03:30:24 PM »

Wall Street Banks Are Sending Warning Signals
Five big ideas that made the week interesting, and the stories behind them.
By Lisa Fleisher
August 25, 2017, 12:55 PM GMT+8

Five Things We Learned This Week (08/24)
Five Things We Learned This Week (08/24)
1) We Could Be Close to a Downturn

The rally looks like it’s about to peter out, say analysts at banks like HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc., and Morgan Stanley. They’re looking at the relationships between stocks, bonds, and commodities—and they’re worried people may be ignoring fundamentals. “Just like they did in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, investors are pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry, and shrugging off broader drivers,” Bloomberg’s Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher report.

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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2017, 03:30:43 PM »

Wall Street Banks Are Sending Warning Signals
Five big ideas that made the week interesting, and the stories behind them.
By Lisa Fleisher
August 25, 2017, 12:55 PM GMT+8

Five Things We Learned This Week (08/24)
Five Things We Learned This Week (08/24)
1) We Could Be Close to a Downturn

The rally looks like it’s about to peter out, say analysts at banks like HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc., and Morgan Stanley. They’re looking at the relationships between stocks, bonds, and commodities—and they’re worried people may be ignoring fundamentals. “Just like they did in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, investors are pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry, and shrugging off broader drivers,” Bloomberg’s Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher report.

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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2017, 11:31:23 AM »
How to make moni when red bears outnumber green bulls ?  :shake: :shake: :shake:

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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2017, 10:44:47 AM »

Morgan Stanley strategist says bear market could start next year after a surge higher
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson expects the S&P 500 to reach 2,700 early next year, but there could be a 'bear market' correction shortly after that.
Wilson said a correction, which could start in the second half of next year, could take the S&P 500 down 20 percent, Wilson said.
Wilson sees the potential for a pullback of 5 to 6 percent this fall.
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
Published 4 Hours Ago  Updated 3 Hours Ago
    Wall Street's biggest bull says the market could grow another 8% in 3 months 
3 Hours Ago | 03:42
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson currently has one of the loftiest stock market targets on Wall Street, but he also sees a possible bear market on the horizon.

Wilson, Morgan's chief equity strategist, said he expects the S&P 500 to reach 2,700 in the first part of next year, if things unfold as he forecasts. He doesn't see a big sell off until after his target is reached, but once that happens it could mean a 20 percent decline.

In the meantime, stocks are benefiting from strong earnings, a still-easy Fed and the promise of economic stimulus.

Wilson said on CNBC's Fast Money that Wednesday's rally was fueled by the reflation trade. "Today is a short term euphoria but we think this is the primary trend: Small caps, financials energy" are all opportunities for investors. "That doesn't mean that FANG or tech gets left behind. They can both work in concert now. So I think this is the next leg."

Earnings for the third quarter should be good and could also give the market a bigger boost, especially if the investors who have been waiting for a pullback all summer put some of their sidelined cash into the market, Wilson said in an earlier interview with "We've been looking for 2,550, 2,575 on the S&P before earnings season," he said.

The index closed at 2,507 Wednesday, up 10 points.

Wilson says there is a risk of a slight stumble this fall — possibly a 5 to 6 percent pullback — before the S&P resumes its climb toward his 2,700 target. He said that could come in late October or early November.

Debate on tax reform could be a catalyst for a late-fall selloff, particularly if Congress does not look like it is in agreement on main elements. A blue print for a tax plan, created by GOP Congressional leadership and the White House, was unveiled Wednesday. The plan showed a decrease in the seven individual tax rates to just three, and a reduced corporate tax rate of 20 percent. But there were many details still missing.

"I think the way it sets up is people probably get excited over the next couple of weeks," said Wilson, also chief investment officer of institutional securities and wealth management. Wilson said he expects earnings to keep buoying the market. "Then we're going to have the inevitable disappointment."

Wilson said market pros have been looking for a selloff all summer, but it didn't come, even when there was nervous trading around tensions with North Korea. "It survived the test. The reason it survived the test is that fundamentals are too good," he said. "There's two ways to correct an overbought market. You could go down or you could go sideways. We took that latter route. "

Stocks should resume their climb if there is a fall sell off, and Wilson says the S&P 500 could ultimately reach his 2,700 target early next year, especially if stimulus and tax reform are approved. Wilson's target is the highest among strategists in the CNBC strategists survey.

"We'll get to 2,700 first, and then the timing of the beginning of the cyclical bear could be imminent. It could be any time after that. It could be as early as the second half of next year," he said in the telephone interview.

A correction of that magnitude would be a normal thing for a market that has been in an eight year bull run. While he expects to see investors get much more excited by the market before it tumbles, it may not be like other periods, given the deep scars from the financial crisis.

"We probably won't see the euphoria we saw in the late '90s any time soon. The scar tissue is still too thick," he said.

A decline of 20 percent from 2,700 would be 2,250. If the S&P does achieve 2,700, it would be up 300 percent from its crisis-era low in March 2009.

Wilson said Congress looks set to move ahead with stimulus even though at this point the market does not need it.

Later, he told Fast Money his call is for boom and bust. Wilson said the stimulus could help drive earnings and multiples, making 2,700 achievable.

"I think this is the trick…Be careful what you wish for. We're late cycle. We made this call back in April. We're looking for the boom, bust," he said. The boom is the bump and euphoria from fiscal stimulus, and investors could get excited about tax cuts sometime early next year. "It actually brings the end of the cycle. That's the irony."

Patti Domm
Patti Domm
CNBC Markets Editor