Author Topic: —帶—路  (Read 3908 times)

Online king

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #100 on: June 26, 2017, 06:59:07 AM »



一带一路:中国如何塑造哈萨克斯坦未来?

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中国的"一带一路"行动正在中亚步步推进。中国在2013年提出"一带一路"的倡议,宗旨是扩展亚洲、非洲、欧洲以及更广泛地区的贸易联系。这一宏大计划迄今给哈萨克斯坦带来怎样的影响?记者前往哈萨克斯坦金融中心阿拉木图看一看。

阿拉木图最大的中国市场内,播放的是时下当地最红的流行歌曲,旋律悠扬,给身边这番在北京或者上海常见的景象增添了一丝独特的哈萨克感。

大市场像是迷宫,路标由哈萨克文和汉语写成。我找到了黄杰(音译),她人很爽朗,在这里做生意已经15年了,店里出售的商品五花八门,从梳子到酱油应有尽有。

最初她从中国来阿拉木图其实是来参加滑冰比赛的,发现商机不错,决定留下来。

"一带一路"上演霍尔果斯双城记
中国"一带一路"的新桥头堡
观点:"一带一路"建设中的金融发展机遇
阿拉木图
阿拉木图
黄杰说:我们是一步步发展起来的
黄杰解释说,"我91年刚来的时候,看到这里几乎没有消费品!我们带来了化妆品、音响、童装、鞋……然后又开始做食品、锅碗瓢盆,再往后是家具,现在还包括健身器材!我们是一步步发展起来的。"

她的成功令人瞩目。

黄女士店里的所有商品都来自中国。她说,大多数时候,客人主要是俄国人和哈萨克人,为了方便做生意,她已经学会了这两种语言。不过现在,她和市场上的其它商家都注意到,来买东西的中国人越来越多。这都要归功于:一带一路。

黄杰告诉我,"一带一路对我的生意来说真是棒极了。

(哈萨克斯坦)涌入大量中国人,盖房子的、修基础设施的,他们需要买我的食品。"

她还说,中国公司在阿斯塔纳(首都)修建轻轨的时候,来了好几千人;中国需要建一座水泥厂,又来了好几千,"没吃的怎么活的下去?"

阿拉木图
阿拉木图
来买东西的中国人多了起来
在中国的"一带一路"宏大构思中,哈萨克斯坦有时会被形象地称为"搭扣":关键部位。

中国正在这个内陆国家修建无水港;中国银行贷款给哈萨克斯坦;中国公司收购哈萨克斯坦公司股权。

不过,这一切也都是有价的。中国想要什么?哈萨克斯坦的矿产资源是其中之一。这里石油、天然气蕴藏丰富,中国也一直在为确保未来的能源安全寻找途径。

中国的投入已经给在阿拉木图的中国商界带来可观收益。

白洪(音译)是一家矿业咨询公司(Talap Munai)的首席执行官。10多年前,他从中国辽宁前往哈萨克斯坦创业,现在公司每年经手的生意额达到2亿美元。

感谢"一带一路",白洪对未来的预测是:只会更好。

白洪带我在他的新办公室参观,他说,"已经见到好处了。有了一带一路,现在从中国进货中间过程快了很多。过去可能需要40-50天才能进到一卡车的货,现在仅仅需要10-15天。"

"哈萨克斯坦给了我们许多优惠政策,比如加快投资审核。"

哈萨克斯坦
哈萨克斯坦
哈萨克斯坦抗议示威不多见
但是,伴随着成功,也出现了一些疑虑。

去年,哈萨克斯坦多处地区爆发大规模示威,抗议政府的土地改革举措。这在哈萨克斯坦很罕见:任何形式的示威都会被立刻平息、抗议者受惩罚。

大多数抗议者担心,新法律会让中国人受益更多,而不是当地人。

最后,哈萨克斯坦政府宣布冻结土地改革,有关法律被搁置。

哈萨克斯坦经济研究局的负责人卡帕罗夫(Kassymkhan Kapparov)告诉我说,"普通人对中国投资有疑心,他们一直认为,那肯定是有条件的。比如最近的土地改革计划,许多老百姓对中国公司收购土地有疑虑。"

他说,"(哈萨克斯坦)农业领域确实需要土地改革,但是公众的'中国威胁观'最后导致政府放弃。"

哈萨克斯坦
哈萨克斯坦
中国领导人习近平曾三度访问哈萨克斯坦,会晤哈总统纳扎尔巴耶夫
哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫自从1989年执政,他"屈尊"放弃土地改革?考虑到哈萨克斯坦不容忍异见的历史,这还真是相当罕见的。

这也许表明,纳扎尔巴耶夫正在努力试图控制国人对中国越来越多的不信任,与中国的伙伴关系是他营造、培育起来的。

"风险评估集团"负责人萨特帕耶夫(Dosym Satpayev)对我说,"官方的观点充满了美好之辞:中国是我们的好邻居,好伙伴,中国是我们的未来。"

"但是……普通人 对中国有许多不同看法,因为传统上,哈萨克内部对中国有不少恐惧。"

哈萨克斯坦
哈萨克斯坦
阿尔玛说,学好中文有助于就业
尽管存在这种看法,在哈萨克斯坦,中国的影响仍然越来越重要。我去阿拉木图一家中文学校参观时看到学生老少皆有,最小的只有11岁,他们认为中文是通往更加美好未来的车票。

拜特米罗夫(Nurzhan Baitemirov)是"东西教育集团"的执行总裁,集团创建于2007年,从只有一家语言学校发展到现在位于全国各地的17家。今后几年,拜特米罗夫有计划继续扩张。

他带我在学校参观期间说,"中国文化和语言将帮助哈萨克斯坦成为更发达、更强大的经济体系。这就是我们的学生来(学中文)的原因。"

目前,他在全国的学生总数已经达到3000人,预计这一数字将继续增长。

一位名叫阿尔玛的女生说,"我会英语,会俄语,但是这些谁都会。要是我会中文这种全球性语言的话,那么雇主肯定会多看我两眼,说,'这是不错的人选!'"

不管存在什么保留意见,有一点很清楚,对大多数哈萨克人来说,和中国的这种新型关系,一段时期内发生改变的可能性不大。

哈萨克斯坦的中国梦刚刚开始。


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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #100 on: June 26, 2017, 06:59:07 AM »

Online king

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #101 on: June 27, 2017, 09:24:25 AM »




国內 最后更新 2017年06月26日 20时59分
一带一路推动港口发展 廖中莱:大马最早获利

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(吉隆坡26日讯)   交通部长拿督斯里廖中莱表示,大马是在一带一路倡议下最早获利的国家,在港口上获得全面的发展,关丹深水港口將在明年开始投入运作。


他说,大马在参与一带一路的早期,就与中国设立港口联盟,世界上十大港口中就有7个港口是来自中国,因此大马可以通过港口联盟的合作带动国內港口全面发展。

「今天巴生港口已经是世界第11大的港口,我们获得中国各商家全面支持,去年巴生港口的成长率达11%,而今年首个季度也有逾10%的成长。」

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他指出,关丹港口过去是浅水码头,如今通过政府的投资加上私人界的配合,共获得了40亿令吉的投资。如今將关丹港口改造成深水码头,並在明年开始投入运作。

廖中莱是週六晚上出席「马来西亚厦门总商会首届理事就职典礼」,在致词时发表有关谈话。出席者包括大马厦门总商会总会长郑培植、署理总会长拿督顏悠廷和秘书长叶潍鸣等。

廖中莱提到,中国国家主席习近平提出来让亚投行和丝路银行进行的融资计划,已获得国际货幣基金组织和世界银行的大力支持,大马商家应该抓紧机会。

他指出,很多国家都有剩余的资金,隨著亚投行与丝路银行进行的融资计划,这些国家的资金可以通过丝路银行和亚投行进入其他发展中国家和连线国家来发展这些国家的基本设施。

「基本设施提升了,国家的经济就会蓬勃增长,所以带动的经济成长不仅是限於有关的发展中国家,也带动整个沿线国家及世界经济的成长。」

他说,大马70年代与中国建交以来,两国关係正处於歷史的最高点,因此大马厦门总商会的成立正是时候;这个总商会將间接搭建商贸的平臺,让我国商家寻到合作伙伴,设立更多大型企业,带动我国经济和贸易活动。

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #102 on: June 27, 2017, 05:55:37 PM »





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ASEAN Today – Deepest economics, politics and business insights into ASEAN
 
Anti-Chinese feeling: Strong sentiment turns into strong actions
Anti-Chinese sentiments are building across Southeast Asia. Can grassroots movements derail Xi Jinping’s big plans?

by Oliver Ward

The Chinese embassy in Laos was forced to issue a security warning after Chinese blood was spilt on Laos streets. A Chinese worker was shot dead in the Xaysomboun province of Laos.

Anti-Chinese feeling has been rising across the region. Xi Jinping has initiated preparation for his One Belt One Road project. The One Belt One Road Project looks to boost infrastructure in the region. Its primary aim is to connect China with the vast shipping ports in Southeast Asia and improve their global distribution power. Chinese workers working in remote regions have been met by resistance from local people. Some have even come under attack.

Islamists are targeting Chinese wealth in Indonesia

In Indonesia, anti-Chinese sentiment is rising too. The leader of the influential Islamist group, the National Movement to Safeguard the Fatwas of the Indonesian Ulemas Council (GNPF-MUI), has spoken out against the ethnic Chinese in the country.

Bachtiar Nasir is the leader of GNPF-MUI. He complained of the wealth enjoyed by ethnic Chinese in the country. “It seems they do not become more generous, more fair”, he added, “That’s the biggest problem.” He went on to question the benefit of Chinese investment to the country. He believes the investment has not helped Indonesians.

Why is there a growing negative feeling towards the Chinese in the region?

Income inequality is worsening in Indonesia. The Gini coefficient is an indication of a country’s wealth inequality. In 2000, Indonesia had a Gini coefficient of 0.30. By 2015 this had risen to 0.40. In 2016, the top 1% of Indonesians owned 49.3% of the national wealth.

Many ethnic Chinese Indonesians are business owners. They become the scapegoat for income inequity. Ethnic Malay natives target them. In 1998, 1,000 ethnic Chinese were killed in riots and their business were targeted in a spate of attacks.

Malaysia has a similar situation. They have a poorer Muslim majority population. They also have a wealthier ethnic Chinese population. The government deliver privileges to the native Muslim population. They give them preferential treatment for public sector jobs and offer discounts on property.

Resistance over Chinese action in the South China Sea has increased tension

Indonesia has refused to support China’s claims over the South China Sea territories. Beijing lodged a complaint against Jakarta after an incident last year. A Chinese fishing boat came under fire from Indonesian navy vessels.

As the South China Sea has become an area of contention, anti-Chinese sentiment has increased in Indonesia. Much of the rhetoric against Ahok in the Jakarta mayor election centred around his religious beliefs and ethnicity. Ahok is an ethnically Chinese Indonesian.

An anti-Chinese grassroots movement is growing in Thailand

Chinese workers are also implementing their One Belt One Road vision in Thailand. Three Chinese ships are surveying the Mekong River in Thailand. They are assessing what rocks and islets need to be removed and destroyed to ease navigation and transport down the river. By 2020, China aims to create an 890km shipping lane, free from obstacles. The lane will connect Simao in China, with Luang Prabang in Laos, via Thailand’s Mekong River.

However, opposition protests are mounting. More than 100 NGO’s are working to stop any dams being built along the Mekong. “Blasting the Mekong will destroy fish breeding grounds, disrupt migrating birds and erode riverside farmland” according to Niwat Roykaew, Chairman of the Chiang Khong Conservation Group.

The protesters forced the Chinese engineers conducting the survey to change their mooring site. They moved from the Thai side of the Mekong to the Lao side. Protesters descended on them flying banners. They read “stop the survey” and “stop blasting our river”.

Attacking workers and using ethnic Chinese as scapegoats for rising inequality are deplorable acts. But, the rising anti-Chinese sentiment is significant. China has been successful in undermining ASEAN through economic investment and policy. But through grassroots movements people are having their say. They are saying: enough is enough.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #103 on: July 08, 2017, 10:01:44 PM »




一带一路与供给侧改革
评论 / 东方文荟 最后更新 2017年07月8日 19时52分 • 评论: 孙和声 • 狂生噪语
一带一路与供给侧改革

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一带一路与供给侧改革,是近年来中国的热门话题,两者间的关系,也是高度相关的,眾皆知,进入21世纪以来,中国经济便出现產能过剩的话题,特別是2008年美国发生次贷危机后,中国政府出台了大规模的刺激方案,缓和了对中国与世界经济的衝击,可其后果则是,加剧了產能过剩。

可以说,一带一路与供给侧改革,是针对这个现象產生的对策之一。所谓供给侧改革,有其中国特色的含义,本来,传统经济学是著重供给的,甚至认为,供给能创造自身的需求。

宏观微观相辅相成

可1920年代世界大萧条时,出现了著重需求的理论,其中的要点是,主张在经济不景气时,政府应增加开支,以创造需求,刺激经济回復活力;这套主张,也是二次战后,全球的主流经济主张,只是,凡事均有其限度,过了某度便会產生弊端,是所谓的物极必反。


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在1970年代,由于需求侧主张用老了,终而在发达国產生了通货膨胀与高失业並存的停滯性通膨(Stagflation),便有经济学者提出反向的供给侧改革主张。在发达国家特別是在1979年英国与1980年美国带头下,供给侧主张成了风行世界的政策主张。

这时期的供给侧政策的重点是,放宽政府管制,搞民营化,自由化与减税,以便释放个人与企业的活力与潜能。约言之,其要点是搞活微观,它与需求侧的著重宏观,调整各有所侧重,只是,在经济领域供给与需求,宏观与微观应是相辅相成的,只有在特定条件下,才应侧重一面于一时,而非永久,如2008年美国危机后,需求侧的宏观调控便又復活,如量化宽鬆或中国的4万亿人民幣刺激方案。

落后国家有需求

在现阶段的中国,供给侧结构性改革的重点,是三去一增,即去库存,去產能,去僵尸企业与增加创新,而创新则是当前的热门用语。

去库存,重点是房地產库存过多,目前,大马也面对高档等地產库存过多,而平价房地產供给不足的失衡现象;去產能,主要是其某些领域,如钢铁水泥,玻璃等產能过剩,缺乏出路;去僵尸企业,主要是指低效率的国有企业,这些企业不但没有贡献,还要长期输血补贴,进而削弱了公共財政。

至于创新,由于中国是发展中国家,其快速崛起靠的是模仿或模仿性创新,而非原创性创新或自主创新,故当发展到某一高度时,便得调整结构,合理化经济结构以促进產业升级,產品换代,才可以持续增长与创造新兴產业,就业与財富。

出于供给侧改革的需要,一带一路便成了一条可能的出路,毕竟许多发展中国家,特別是那些落后的发展中国家,是非常需要外资来激活发展的,可以说只要是双方出于自愿,是可以据此互通有无;而说不上什么新殖民主义或社会帝国主义的。这是因为,发展中国家,如巴基斯坦、孟加拉、缅甸等是面对著双缺口,也就是缺乏外匯与储蓄的国家,也因为这个外匯与储蓄的双缺口,外加上人口增长过快,使得这些国家没有投资能力,可如中国人所说「要致富,先修路」没有基础建设,经济又如何动起来?

中企敢向虎山行

此外,由于这些国家缺乏吸引力,政情不安,法治不彰等,发达国家的剩余资本也不敢贸然投入这些地区,使得这些国家或地区长期陷入停滯的贫困陷阱中,反而是中国的国有企业敢冒这个险去这些地区搞投资。从中方来说,可说是不入虎穴,焉得虎子。

应该说,中企是很敢闯的,西方资本不敢进入的非洲、中东、中亚,中企均敢去冒险。因此,与其说这是新殖民主义或社会帝国主义,倒不如说这是有闯劲,敢向虎山行。这个冒险若能成功也可能为这些地区带来和平与发展,增进区域和平;毕竟国际关系便有一种主张,认为商业化是对付极端主义的一种对策。

说起来非洲、中东、中亚动荡多,因素固然復杂多样,可人口增长快过经济增长,青年人失业率过高,无疑是个主因,若中企敢穿越伊斯兰墙,把非洲与中东的经济搞活起来,未尝不是功德无量。当然天下没有白吃的午餐,也没有只讲付出不求回报的利他主义。从利人利己,共同发展,共同繁荣的现实主义角度看,这是值得一试的冒险。

经济如游牧民族

其实发达国家,特別是美国,法国等不在这些国家投资反而大卖武器,才是使这些贫困地区陷入长期困境的主因,这些地区真正需要的是发展与就业机会,而不是武器或民主攻势。在未搞活经济前,便大搞超前民主化,只会加剧政治伊斯兰的极端性,甚至让其取得政权,不顾国情地一味搞超前民主或民主攻势,只能说是浪漫有余现实不足,甚至是败事有余。

就所谓的新殖民主义言,其实,就主权国家言,重点是这些东道国本身要知道自己要什么,不要什么,毕竟这是自愿交易,条件是可以说的,中国的一带一路为这些国家与地区提供了额外的选择,要不要做出选择,或是如何谈条件,主权在己,条件不合可以不要。

对一些较发达的发展中国家言,一带一路也是一个额外的机会,可以借一带一路找机会,只要中国能带头把这些地区搞活起来,日本、韩国、大马等也可白搭便车去找机会,反正中企是衝锋队,先让中企去衝,有搞头便跟著进,何乐而不为?总的来说,套句鸿海老板郭台铭的一句名言「经济是动物,政治是植物」,政治如农业社会的农民,是保守与守成的,经济则如游牧民族,到处逐水草居。

中资中企敢到处开拓市场,显示它是蛮有衝劲与闯劲,反观当前的发达国家反而是日趋內向,或是自顾不暇,在这种情况下,缺乏外匯与储蓄的落后国,又如何能「要致富先修路」呢?与其从意识形態的角度看问题倒不如从如何利人利己的角度找互通有无的机会——虽然其失败的成本也是颇高的。

惠及世界经济

约言之,当前的中国人是勇于尝试的,而一般而言,多数人(而非少数的知识精英)也希望改善自己的生活环境,就如大马人到新加坡去当马劳一样,为何本国没有出路?为何不去找出路?要选择做植物还是动物?

一带一路若取得一定成就,减缓中国的產能过剩与库存,也將意味著中国经济会再度加速增长,从而带动世界经济,也会再为大宗商品出口国带来生机。因此,从利己的角度看,一带一路的成功將惠及本国与世界经济,这种正数游戏观,才是对待一带一路的互贏观。世界经济缺乏活力,所有国家都不会得到好处。

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #104 on: July 11, 2017, 07:58:19 PM »




WORLDCORPORATE
Thailand greenlights first phase of US$5.5b railway project with China
Reuters
/
Reuters

July 11, 2017 19:13 pm MYT

-A+A
BANGKOK (July 11): Thailand's cabinet on Tuesday approved construction of the first phase of a US$5.5-billion railway project to link the industrial eastern seaboard with southern China through landlocked Laos, as part of a regional infrastructure drive by Beijing.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who heads the Thai ruling junta, made use of an executive order last month to pave the way for the project, which has been beset by delays, including negotiations on loan terms.

The first phase encompasses six railway stations on a 250-km (155-mile) high-speed line linking the Thai capital of Bangkok and the northeastern province of Nakorn Ratchasima.

"This project is part of the development of a regional transport network, in particular China's 'One Belt One Road' initiative that will link Europe, Asia and Southeast Asia together," Korbsak Pootrakool, vice-minister at the Prime Minister's Office, told reporters.

The link forms part of Beijing's regional infrastructure drive to connect Chinese cities with Southeast Asia, including Thailand's industrial zones and its eastern deep sea port.

Some analysts see the project as a centrepiece of China-Thailand relations which appear to have deepened following a 2014 coup by the Thai army.

Thailand's government has said Thai firms will be responsible for construction while China will be responsible for the railway technology, signal systems and technical training.

"The project will use Thai materials but Chinese technology will be used in the construction," Prayuth said.

"We will send people to learn this so that we can operate the rail system ourselves in the future.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #105 on: July 11, 2017, 08:03:51 PM »




HSBC: OBOR-bond issuance boost will attract investors to Malaysian capital market
Sangeetha Amarthalingam
/
theedgemarkets.com

July 11, 2017 17:47 pm MYT

-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (July 11): A boost to the One Belt One Road (OBOR)-related bond issuance and continued reforms could give markets like Malaysia the depth and breadth that would make them more attractive to international capital and domestic retail investors.

HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd said it would also help reduce reliance on bank lending and expand financing options for private companies.

In a statement, HSBC said the expected growth in capital-raising activity is good news for the development of some of the smaller markets along the OBOR initiative as many emerging market local currency-bond markets have grown rapidly recently.

“In light of this, the Malaysian bond and sukuk market also continues to play a major role in supporting economic growth through the financing of business expansion and infrastructure development.

“Malaysian bonds have seen strong demand from local and foreign investors who have been searching for higher-yielding assets after building up significant cash positions over time,” HSBC added.

Malaysia’s foreign interest featured RM6.8 billion and RM10.1 billion inflow to the domestic debt market in April and May this year, respectively.

“According to analysts, this is premised largely on a stronger ringgit which can be attributed mostly to Bank Negara Malaysia’s foreign exchange hedging measures introduced in April.

“Still, the market remains small relative to the size of the economy it serves, let alone compared with the US$40 trillion-plus US bond market,” it said, suggesting that a boost to OBOR issuance and reforms could help Malaysian markets.

HSBC chief executive officer Mukhtar Hussain said increased capital market activity could prompt more cross border regulatory coordination among markets such as in South East Asia or Central Asia.

He said more cohesion in documentation, taxation, foreign exchange regulation and credit ratings could lend critical mass to a fragmented landscape of many relatively small and illiquid markets.

Meanwhile, he said infrastructure projects and the stable, long-term returns it provides attract investors who look to diversify their holdings.

For example, sovereign wealth funds have been deploying more of their assets to global infrastructure investments particularly in Asia.

“At the same time, the savings of Asia’s middle classes including in Malaysia are growing rapidly, and these savers are looking for yield. The steady return potential of infrastructure investment would be a good fit especially as many of them are getting older and need to plan for their retirement,” HSBC said.

The OBOR initiative aims to galvanise infrastructure construction in South East Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe with approved projects such as the RM8.9 billion double-tracking rail project between Gemas and Johor Bahru, and the RM43 billion Melaka Gateway port venture.

Together with those infrastructure projects, Malaysia plans to invest RM469 billion in this sector till 2030 as the Asian Development Bank estimates that RM112 trillion or RM7.3 trillion a year, would flow into infrastructure in the same period as developing nations aim to raise production and deal with growing urbanisation and impact of climate change.

Mukhtar said while financing transport, telecoms and energy infrastructure is going to require available sources of private and public sector capital, it would generate opportunities for local and international investors.

It would also stimulate capital market development in Asia where bank lending dominates financing, he said.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #106 on: July 12, 2017, 02:38:20 PM »




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泰国批准泰中铁路
示意图
国际 最后更新 2017年07月12日 13时36分
泰国批准泰中铁路

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(曼谷12日讯)泰国政府官员週二表示,泰国內阁当天批准了泰中铁路合作项目曼谷-呵叻段,建设工程预计將於今年9月动工,工期4年。

泰国首相府副部长戈沙在內阁会议后对媒体说,內阁已批准由泰国铁路局推进曼谷至呵叻府的铁路。这段铁路全长近253公里,设计最高时速250公里,由曼谷邦似站始发,经停廊曼机场等站后抵达呵叻府呵叻站。

预计工程耗资约1794亿泰銖(约224亿令吉),全部由泰国政府承担。



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按照程序,这一项目还需经过泰国立法议会表决。如获通过,中泰双方將签署相关合同,隨后工程分段招標开工。

泰国首相巴育当天在內阁会议后对媒体表示,曼谷-呵叻段为泰中铁路合作项目一期工程,此后政府將继续推动建设二期工程,即呵叻-廊开段。

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #107 on: July 14, 2017, 02:08:18 PM »




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一带一路引质疑 中国探討不足
中国外交部专家学者团展开大马、汶莱及缅甸之行,他们週四在中国驻马大使馆接受本地媒体联访。左起为翟坤、张宇燕及肖河。(摄影:顏泉春)
国內 最后更新 2017年07月13日 22时55分
一带一路引质疑 中国探討不足

1分享
(吉隆坡13日讯)中国外交部的专家学者认为,儘管大马社会对「一带一路」倡议有各种不同的声音,包括前首相敦马哈迪也提出质疑,但双边共同推进的建设朝向良好的方向发展。

其中,中国外交部专家学者代表团成员兼北京大学国关学院教授翟坤不讳言,因中国在过去与一些国家合作推进的项目中,的確有面对政局动盪而导致原定工程告吹的前科,因此大马政治不稳定的话,肯定也会影响「一带一路」倡议所签署下的项目的执行力。

他瞭解到,虽然大马首相拿督斯里纳吉特別支持「一带一路」计划,但社会有出现各种声音,包括敦马的反对声浪;惟他也认为,中国提出「一带一路」倡议的时间不长,这段期间出现质疑或反对的声浪,也正好可让中方去探討是否有做得不足之处。

询及会否担心一旦大马在来届全国大选出现政权轮替而会影响到双边在推进「一带一路」计划工程的进展时;另一名代表团成员兼社科院世界政治与经济研究所所长张宇燕皆认为,政局的稳定与政权轮替,是两个层面的问题。

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张宇燕说,即使政权轮替,只要公务体制稳定,让政策可以延续性,就不存在影响到「一带一路」计划大型项目工程的推进。在张宇燕看来,由于「一带一路」计划的工程在最初数年是交通物流的大型基建,也使到社会民间还没有感受到项目带来的便利。

要「行稳致远」

此外,翟坤在受询时指出,中国与大马所签署的项目若能在全国大选前执行是最好不过的事。但他也补充,中国国家主席习近平也曾表示推动「一带一路」的建设要「行稳致远」,这也说明这项倡议是一项长期的发展计划,不该急于一时。

中国外交部专家团是就一带一路课题到东南亚数国进行考察,並在今日抵达吉隆坡时,在中国驻马大使馆会议厅接受本地媒体联访时,发表看法。

张宇燕谈到,他瞭解到民间对国外的大企业进军本土时的担忧,因这些都是中国曾经歷过的事。他提到,中国在30年前的改革开放初期,准备引进一批又一批的外资时,民间也出现各种焦虑,纷纷在探討资本涌现会否导致本土企业倒闭,也在探討美国为首的资本主义会否以另一种方式来殖民中国。

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #108 on: July 19, 2017, 04:28:42 PM »




ighlight
CIMB: Asean 'centrality' trumps China's Belt and Road economic benefits
Sulhi Azman
/
theedgemarkets.com

July 19, 2017 15:51 pm MYT
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (July 19): CIMB Asean Research Institute (CARI) said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) needs to uphold its centrality against China's Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) economic gains to ensure the Asean principle becomes the driving force in its external relations.

CARI chairman Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid said Asean must continue to ensure that its centrality was preserved with external dialogue partners.

"China has shown its goodwill in helping the region grow through various investments and support. ASEAN, however, must ensure that the economic benefits will not outweigh its centrality.

"The BRI should also be inclusive in involving local SMEs in the short and medium term to ensure long lasting bilateral relations," Munir said.

He said this today in a statement issued by CARI in conjunction with the roundtable entitled "China's Belt and Road Initiative in ASEAN: economic opportunities and ASEAN centrality".

CARI organised the roundtable here today in collaboration with Asean Business Club.

After the roundtable, Munir told reporters that Malaysia should not be "punch drunk" that the BRI would come with automatic benefits as any proposed investment should be thoroughly scrutinised to ensure that it would be in the country's best interest.

"We must not be overwhelmed by the sheer size of the BRI and think that good things are going to happen like that automatically.

"We must look at which part of it will work for Malaysia, and inevitably for Asean," he said.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #109 on: July 20, 2017, 11:57:35 AM »




China investments must be thoroughly scrutinised, says think tank
FMT Reporters | July 20, 2017
CIMB Asean Research Institute chief Munir Majid says Malaysia must not be overwhelmed by China's Belt and Road Initiatives and think only of its benefits.
Munir-Majid-Road-Initiatives-china-1PETALING JAYA: A think tank has warned that Malaysia must not be too enthusiastic thinking that China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) would come with automatic benefits, advising instead for proposed investments to be thoroughly scrutinised, The Edge reported.
CIMB Asean Research Institute (Cari) chairman Munir Majid urged the government to ensure that any investment was in the country’s best interest.
“We must not be overwhelmed by the sheer size of the BRI and think that good things are going to happen like that automatically.
“We must look at which part of it will work for Malaysia, and inevitably for Asean,” he was quoted as saying on the sidelines of a roundtable meeting entitled “China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Asean: Economic opportunities and Asean centrality” held in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
Munir also said that Asean should also maintain its own strength in partnership when dealing with external dialogue partners, including in its talks with China on the BRI.
Munir also called for Asean to ensure that its principles remain the driving force when moving forward towards the economic gains that can be achieved under China’s BRI.

“China has shown its goodwill in helping the region grow through various investments and support. Asean, however, must ensure that the economic benefits will not outweigh its centrality.
“The BRI should also be inclusive in involving local SMEs in the short and medium term to ensure long lasting bilateral relations,” he said.
The roundtable meeting organised by Cari was held in collaboration with the Asean Business Club.
Malaysia was given significant attention last May, during the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, when Chinese president Xi Jinping singled out Malaysia for its early support of the BRI, saying Malaysia will be one of the countries that will benefit most from it.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #110 on: July 22, 2017, 05:23:57 PM »




Saturday, 22 July 2017
Huge investments go into building Malaysian ports
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/07/21/19/04/bizw_pg14_july22_ky_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=03858D5DCC95811B407B9B82F71ACA24AB942CD0
Melaka Gateway: The deep sea port is reportedly targeted to be a liquid cargo terminal with storage facilities that will benefit oil trading in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
Melaka Gateway: The deep sea port is reportedly targeted to be a liquid cargo terminal with storage facilities that will benefit oil trading in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
 
EVER since China rolled out its Belt and Road initiative, many countries have received billions of dollars towards infrastructure development to boost trade and investment along the old Silk Road that connects China and many other countries.

For the developing nations along the Silk Road, receiving huge sums of money has boosted economic growth as China aims to intensify linkages with countries.

President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative, which originally aimed at building economic connectivity with 64 countries via infrastructure investments along the old Silk Road and maritime routes, is making positive impact on many countries and Malaysia is a big beneficiary of that.

What is clear is the impact on investment in Malaysia. One of the largest investments inked has been through the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL).

The first phase of the ECRL will connect Wakaf Baru in Kelantan to ITT Gombak at a cost of RM46bil. The second phase will join the Integrated Transport Terminal Gombak to Port Klang, a distance of 88km, at a cost of RM9bil.

The rail connection between the west and east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia will be a catalyst to not only growth and businesses between the corridors but also create jobs and open up the hinterland of the peninsula to many more business opportunities.

The ECRL linking Port Klang and Kuantan Port will slash 30 hours of travel time for cargo shipping through the Port of Singapore but at a slightly higher cost.

At a recent forum, Universiti Malaya’s Institute of China Studies research fellow Dr Zhang Miao said that the ECRL could alter the traditional trade routes that go through Singapore, since China’s uncertain diplomatic relation with the island republic forces it to explore other alternatives.

China has invested over US$50bil (RM217bil) in countries along the Belt and Road between 2014 and 2016, with total trade exceeding US$3 trillion (RM13 trillion).

But the one big area in China’s investment has been in ports, and Malaysia has been a huge recipient of those investments.

It was reported that Chinese companies will be investing US$7.2bil in the Melaka Gateway, US$2.8bil in the Kuala Linggi Port, US$1.4bil in Penang Port and US$177mil in the Kuantan port projects.

The deep sea port in Melaka is reportedly targeted to be a liquid cargo terminal with storage facilities that will benefit oil trading in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

There will also be a container terminal, break-bulk and dry bulk terminal, shipbuilding and repair services, maritime industrial park and port logistics services at the new port in Melaka.

The Kuala Linggi International Port is reportedly being built near Melaka to handle oil tankers with reports saying the port will target the bunkering business.

Related story:

Impact of China’s capital controls


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/22/huge-investments-go-into-building-malaysian-ports/#BTQ3xEhV2szoyUTO.99

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #111 on: July 22, 2017, 05:30:24 PM »




Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Saturday, 22 July 2017
Impact of China’s capital controls
BY CECILIA KOK

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/07/21/23/08/china-money-economy-2207.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=D6C44E6DB9CB94566654914FD82B46EB6C253928

 
Economists say restrictions will affect limited areas of Malaysia’s economy

EVERY day, bus loads of Chinese tourists will arrive at the Mitsui Outlet Park KLIA Sepang to snap up bargains on their last round of shopping before going back to China.

It is a welcome sight for the project’s joint developers – Mitsui Fudosan of Japan and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd, as the factory outlet shopping mall, located 60km from Kuala Lumpur and 6km from KLIA and klia2, is built with capturing the growing traffic of Chinese tourists to the country in mind.

Tourists from China are mostly flush with cash, and they are known to be big spenders on overseas trips.

Indeed, Malaysia’s appetite for Chinese money to help stimulate its economy – be it in the area of tourism, real estate purchases, foreign direct investments (FDI) or trade – has been growing in recent years. This is in tandem with the rising affluence of China’s population.

But such anticipation has somewhat turned into anxiety of late, as questions and uncertainties arise over the wider implications of China’s capital controls – a measure that has been implemented since late last year to curb the outflow of funds from the world’s second-largest economy and to stabilise the yuan’s exchange value – on Malaysia’s economy.

Such concerns are likely over-exaggerated, according to some economists and analysts, as they point out that the new capital restrictions will affect limited areas of Malaysia’s economy. There is unlikely to be any impact on Chinese tourism in Malaysia as well as FDIs in infrastructure and construction projects as many of their participation in them are deemed “strategic” to China’s economic and national interests.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/22/impact-of-chinas-capital-controls/~/media/ddc8b5503b7c4e91b111369e892057e1.ashx?h=435&w=630

 

As China’s Premier Li Keqiang told a press conference in March, genuine business deals, personal travels and education would not be affected by the country’s capital controls.

This was echoed by China’s ambassador to Malaysia Dr Huang Huikang, who told the local media recently that “what is permitted and what is not is clear-cut” in the control of China’s capital outflow.

Huang noted that while the ruling would not prohibit Chinese citizens from buying overseas properties, purchases of non-strategic business interests such as football teams or cinemas in foreign countries would be prohibited.

That probably sheds some light as to why the overseas deals of Chinese property giant Dalian Wanda Group, which has been investing in foreign cinemas in recent years, have been hit.

Strategic interests

The Malaysian Government has been trying to court Wanda to participate in the Bandar Malaysia development project in Kuala Lumpur. This followed the termination of the sale deal, involving a 60% stake in the project, to IWH CREC Sdn Bhd in May.

IWH CREC is a 60:40 joint-venture between Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Sdn Bhd (IWH) and China Railway Engineering Corp (CREC), which is a state-owned enterprise (SOE).

But with Wanda now facing restrictions in moving funds abroad amid China’s crackdown on capital outflows, the likelihood of its participation in the Bandar Malaysia project will be minimal.

Speculation is rife that IWH CREC will be able to reinstate its participation in Bandar Malaysia, as the conglomerate stands a good chance to win the bid for the deal, says an analyst with a local banking group.

“The Chinese government’s interest in the Bandar Malaysia project has waned, as is clear from the May meeting between Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and China’s leaders in Beijing... we expect China’s government through its SOEs to be in a strong position to gain from the Wanda fallout,” the construction analyst, who declines to be named, tells StarBizWeek.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/22/impact-of-chinas-capital-controls/~/media/91aef30d20fd4250bcd66ccdd7636fed.ashx?h=378&w=600

Crowds take a closer look of Bandar Malaysias architectural building model scale during the mou signing ceremony at Shangri La hotel. AZMAN GHANI / The Star.
Significant development: With Wanda now facing restrictions in moving funds abroad amid China’s crackdown on capital outflows, the likelihood of its participation in the Bandar Malaysia project will be minimal.
 
“After all, there are strategic interests in the project for the Chinese government – and Malaysia can capitalise on this, while working on further deepening of ties between two countries,” he adds.

Bandar Malaysia is a significant project, as the 486acre development at the old airport site in Sungai Besi, will house the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) terminus and become a central transport hub with connections to the mass rapid transit lines, KTM Komuter, Express Rail Link and 12 other highways. The project is expected to be completed within the next 15 to 20 years.

China is expected to participate in the upcoming tender for the KL-Singapore HSR project which will likely be called in the fourth quarter of this year.

Over the week, Second Finance Minister Datuk Johari Abdul Ghani described Chinese investments in Malaysia as being “more focused and meet the needs of the current national development projects”. He noted that Malaysia is in a strategic position to leverage and capitalise on China’s economic growth.

Close ties

Last November, Malaysia and China signed 14 deals, worth a combined RM144bil, to seal their cooperation in the area of infrastructure and construction development in Malaysia. Among the projects are the RM55bil East Coast Railway Line (ECRL) project; the US$7.4bil (RM32.6bil) Melaka Gateway project; the RM2.5bil Trans-Sabah Gas Pipeline and the RM4bil Wuxi Suntech Power Co Ltd manufacturing project in the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park.

To allay fears, Huang has earlier said that despite the new capital-control ruling, Chinese investments in Malaysia are still going on smoothly, as most of the projects are government-to-government initiatives and genuine business activities.

In addition, some of the projects fall under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that supports a diverse array of programmes that could enhance connectivity between Europe and Asia as well strengthen China’s economic and security interests.

Such is the case for the ECRL, KL-Singapore HSR, the RM1.3bil Xiamen University Malaysia, the RM4bil Kuantan port expansion, the RM3bil Kedah Integrated Fishery Terminal project, among others.

So far, the Chinese government has spent US$50bil on overseas projects linked to the BRI initiative that covers 65 countries.

In terms of Malaysia’s planned port and railway projects, China’s investments would likely reach RM400bil over the next two decades, according to a recent estimate by Citi Research.

China is the largest foreign investor in Malaysia.

Data from Malaysia Investment Development Authority showed that in 2016, a total of 33 China-led projects valued at RM4.8bil was approved. This was almost double that of 2015’s tally of 17 projects worth RM1.9bil.

Uninterrupted flow

According to economist Lee Heng Guie, while China’s stringent capital controls can slow new investments in Malaysia, existing projects with Chinese involvement in the country will unlikely be affected due to their strategic value.

“China’s capital controls that subject many overseas deals to reviews of strict control are expected to put a damper on extra-large merger and acquisitions (M&As) as well as real estate purchases and investments abroad; and Chinese companies will not be as enthusiastic as they used to be about pouring money into overseas projects that are not related to their core business,” says Lee the executive director of Socio-Economic Research Centre.

He adds the capital controls could also affect new Chinese investments heading overseas – including Malaysia – but he argues: “Forex restrictions will have limited impact on projects under the BRI initiative as they are largely infrastructure-oriented and are critical to China’s geo-economic strategy.”

Similarly, Zhang Miao, research fellow, Institute of China Studies, Universiti Malaya, says concerns over the impact of China’s capital controls on BRI projects are unfounded.

“Most BRI projects in Malaysia led by China’s SOEs are infrastructure projects that are encouraged by the state government mainly due to China’s own geopolitical consideration, as well as the need to address the overcapacity problem in certain industries such as cement and steel which are closely linked to infrastructure,” Zhang tells StarBizWeek.

Noting that most of top management personnel in SOEs are appointed by the Chinese government, Zhang says, to be politically right is often more important than being commercially profitable.

“There is no strong reason for SOEs managers to invest in sectors affected by tight capital controls. Therefore, it is very unlikely that the BRI projects could be influenced by the tightening-up of the capital control,” she explains.

Zhao stresses that it is the so-called non-strategic sectors such as real estate, filming-making and football clubs that are being targeted by the Chinese government in stemming the capital flow.

China has started scrutinising deals and projects of its homegrown companies abroad and fund repatriation by individuals, particularly towards mega property investments and doubtful M&As since November last year.

Under the capital-control policy, remittance of funds by Chinese companies for overseas deals would be restricted to approved business purposes, and they would have to get special approval from the People’s Bank of China and other local regulatory authorities.

The currency exchange quota for Chinese individuals, on the other hand, remains unchanged at US$50,000 (RM214,500) per person per year, but there are additional restrictions that make it difficult for one to exchange yuan for foreign currencies.

For instance, all buyers of foreign exchange must sign a pledge that they won’t use their quotas for offshore property investment. Violators would be added to a watch list, denied access to foreign currency for three years and be subject to a money-laundering investigation.

On that note, there have been reports about some Chinese buyers of the high-end Forest City residential development in Johor Baru being affected.

According to a Bloomberg report last month, some Chinese buyers would likely walk away from their sale and purchase agreements for the Forest City project due to concerns about breaking the rules amid the ongoing crackdown on capital outflows from China.

It remains to be seen how the RM100bil mixed project, developed by China-based Country Garden Holdings Co, will be affected as 80% to 90% of Forest City buyers are from China.

On that note, it will likely take several more months to fully understand how significant the impact of China’s capital controls is. In the meantime, all economies craving for Chinese money will j have to adjust to the new rule of the game set by China.

Related story:

Huge investments go into building Malaysian ports

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
China , capital controls

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/22/impact-of-chinas-capital-controls/#Pi8b6glCQghMIXko.99

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #112 on: July 29, 2017, 09:08:56 PM »




 0 0 0 New
Sri Lanka completes controversial $1 billion port deal with China
AFP | July 29, 2017
India is nervous about China's infrastructure moves into its traditional sphere of influence.
sri-lankaCOLOMBO: Sri Lanka on Saturday sealed a billion-dollar deal to let a Chinese state firm take over a loss-making port in a move that worries many, including its giant neighbour India.
The long-delayed $1.1 billion sale of a 70 percent stake in Hambantota port, which straddles the world’s busiest east-west shipping route, was confirmed by Sri Lanka’s Ports Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe.
The government used tough laws against industrial action to stop workers going on strike this week to oppose the sale to China Merchants Port Holdings.
India is nervous about China’s infrastructure moves into its traditional sphere of influence.
“We have addressed geo-political concerns,” the minister said at a signing ceremony in Colombo. “China has accepted that everything in this agreement will operate under Sri Lankan law.”
Negotiations over the deal were held up for months amid opposition from trade unions and political parties.
The minister said this week that several countries had raised fears about the sale. India and the United States are known to be concerned that China getting a foothold at the deep-sea port could give it a military naval advantage in the Indian Ocean.
Samarasinghe said that Hambantota, 240 kilometres (150 miles) south of Colombo, will not be a military base for any country.
China Merchants built and operates Sri Lanka’s only major deep-sea terminal in Colombo, which can accommodate the world’s largest container carriers.

Strategic partner
Executive vice president Hu Jianhua said the company wanted to make Hambantota the gateway to expanding economies in South Asia and Africa where it has similar port operations.
“(The) business of Hambantota port will be cross border, across the Indian ocean, stretching to the Far East, to Europe and to the globe,” Hu said.
“Sri Lanka will be well positioned to play a strategic role in the one–belt-one-road initiative of the government of the People’s Republic of China,” Hu said.
Sri Lanka has signed up to President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, which aims to strengthen China’s land and sea trade routes.
India has snubbed Xi’s plan and skipped a May summit in Beijing that was attended by world leaders.
Samarasinghe said Hambantota will be purely a commercial port, but any routine port calls by foreign navies will be regulated by Sri Lanka as in the case with the Colombo port.
Two Chinese submarines called at Colombo in 2014 during the final year of former president Mahinda Rajapakse’s tenure, angering New Delhi.
The new government of President Maithripala Sirisena turned down a Chinese request in May for another submarine call at Colombo shortly after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the island.
Sirisena came to power in January 2015 promising to loosen ties with China after a decade of hefty funding by Beijing under his predecessor.
He suspended all big ticket Chinese funded projects amid allegations of corruption. These have resumed after modifications to the contracts with the previous government.
Apart from the $1.12 billion sale price, the Chinese firm will invest another $600 million to develop Hambantota, Samarasinghe said.
The port has racked up losses of $300 million in the last six years, according to official figures. In addition, the government pays more than $60 million annually to service the port’s debt.

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #113 on: July 30, 2017, 06:20:56 PM »




Sunday, 30 July 2017
Asean Belt and Road risks under scrutiny

BY HO WAH FOON

 
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/30/asean-belt-and-road-risks-under-scrutiny-china-is-signalling-that-it-will-not-be-splashing-money-ind/~/media/4ac221628b734e64ba9485d39e369f4d.ashx?h=444&w=620

 

China is signalling that it will not be splashing money indiscriminately along 65 Belt and Road nations from now on.

MALAYSIA and other South-East Asian countries have come under China’s close scrutiny for political, financial and legal risks as Beijing intensifies its efforts to review its Belt and Road programmes and control capital outflows.

Two weeks ago, a six-member delegation of academics, researchers and foreign affairs officials – members of Beijing think tanks –came to Kuala Lumpur to conduct an independent assessment of the local political situation, legal and financial systems, as well as response towards Belt and Road projects.

China’s President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road initiative in 2013. This trade-cum-foreign affair ambitious scheme seeks to connect China more closely with Europe, Southeast and Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

The July 13-16 study tour of the Chinese group came following the May 14-15 Belt and Road Summit in China that had, among others, compiled complaints on Chinese projects and the way the projects were being implemented.

When opening that summit, Xi had announced plans to allocate more funds for roads, railways, ports and pipelines across Asia and beyond.

According to Citi Research, Malaysia’s port and railway projects may see investments of RM400bil from China.

By sending its officials to conduct independent studies, the Chinese are signalling that their money does not fall from the sky anymore. It is time to rectify the wrongs. Chinese funded investments should look at risks, costs and benefits, just like any other commercial undertakings.

Beijing had to act in the face of warnings of risks linked to these projects and other investments.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/30/asean-belt-and-road-risks-under-scrutiny-china-is-signalling-that-it-will-not-be-splashing-money-ind/~/media/8197bb5c79f9440e95c42f0a0f3d43c4.ashx?h=560&w=400

Comprehensive picture: Zhang Yuyan leads a Chinese think-tank group to study risks in Malaysia, Brunei and Myanmar.
Comprehensive picture: Zhang Yuyan leads a Chinese think-tank group to study risks in Malaysia, Brunei and Myanmar.
 
Although there are successes in Belt and Road projects, there are also disturbing stories of protests against projects which affected the livelihood of residents in host countries.

Business-wise, it is also worrying. Recently, the Chinese Commerce Ministry revealed that 65% of Chinese investments abroad – including Belt and Road projects – had incurred losses.

And state-funded insurance company Sinosure that has supported export, domestic trade and investment with a total value of US$2.8 trillion (RM12 trillion) since 2001, reported that claims it had paid out by 2015 amounted to US$9.5bil (RM40.6bil) .

These revelations could not have gone unnoticed.

The Malaysia-bound study group, led by Zhang Yuyan – director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics and senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) – had met with officials from the Economic Planning Unit and a think tank, among others.

“We are here to study the response to Belt and Road projects before and after the summit. We have heard there are opposition noises and we hope to clear our doubts,” Zhang told the press here.

The influx of Chinese investments in the recent two years has sparked a local debate on whether the Government is “selling Malaysia’s sovereignty”.

There is also a warning that Malaysia’s debts, just under 55% of the country’s GDP, could balloon due to huge soft loans to be taken from China to implement Belt and Road projects, mainly for railways and ports.

On the ground, there is fear that jobs and business opportunities for small businesses may be curtailed as the Chinese bring in their own contractors, managers, workers and even chefs.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/30/asean-belt-and-road-risks-under-scrutiny-china-is-signalling-that-it-will-not-be-splashing-money-ind/~/media/c7c6e9d054fe44b8a0edcb9187490ae7.ashx?h=568&w=400

Observation: Prof Zhai sees Malaysia as more politically stable now when compared to one to two years ago.
Observation: Prof Zhai sees Malaysia as more politically stable now when compared to one to two years ago.
 
Zhang said a major task of the delegation was to assess how stable the Government was, and whether there were implementation risks in Chinese projects here. Malaysia must hold its 14th general election before mid-2018.

The Chinese experts were also looking into how investments from China were being managed.

The unexpected visit of this group shows that China is no longer indiscriminate in dispersing funds for state projects overseas. It also means that overseas investments by its nationals – not just the big corporations – would also have to be properly managed.

The scrutiny has come about partly due to China’s tightening of capital controls to prevent outflow of funds into projects that will not contribute to the real economy of the host countries, said Zhang.

Zhang said his delegation would also visit Brunei and Myanmar.

While Brunei has not been prominently featured in the Belt and Road scene, China’s US$3.6bil (RM15bil) Myitsone dam in northern Myanmar has stirred up anti-Chinese sentiment as it would cause irreparable harm to the Irrawaddy River, destroy fish stocks downstream and displace thousands of villagers.

Indeed, just before the Chinese delegation came to Kuala Lumpur, CASS – known for its research work – posted a warning on its website of various risks facing Chinese direct investments in Asean.

“Although China and Asean have enjoyed close and fruitful cooperation in policy coordination, infrastructure development, investment and trade facilitation, financial integration and people-to-people connectivity – some deep-seated problems still need to be solved.

“For example, cooperation is still in the exploratory stage and some policy details have yet to be clarified. Trade growth is slowing while an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment adds to the difficulty of cooperation,” says the CASS report published on July 12.

The report also highlights legal risks.

“Chinese enterprises considering investing abroad might face a series of risks related to politics, culture, business, law and morality, most of which will be transformed into legal risks.”

However, Prof Zhai Kun of Peking University – a member of Zhang-led study tour – said infrastructure of “strategic importance” and manufacturing projects that will add value to the economy and in line with the objectives of the Belt and Road would not be affected.

“President Xi has guided that our enterprises should not only talk, but must manage their companies well. If you are solid and steady, then you will be able to go far,” he said.

On Malaysia’s political situation, Prof Zhai felt “it is more stable now” compared to one to two years ago.

“China hopes there will be continuity for our projects, whoever forms the Government after the general election.”

He said China could understand the fear of many Malaysians towards the influx of Chinese investments.

In 1978, China also had the same experience when it opened itself to the world.

“People were asking if the invasion of foreign investments would rob us of our wealth and sovereignty. But now everybody agrees that globalisation has benefited China and the world.”

The delegation felt many ordinary people could not immediately enjoy the benefit of Belt and Road projects mainly because they are long-term schemes.

Some projects classified by China as Belt and Road projects in Malaysia are the RM55bil East Coast Rail Link, Bandar Malaysia, RM70bil KL-Singapore High Speed Rail, RM40bil Melaka Gateway, RM30bil oil pipeline linking Bagan Datuk to Bachok, Kuantan Port and Xiamen University Malaysia.

Related story:

Factor in investment risks, says Marsh


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/30/asean-belt-and-road-risks-under-scrutiny-china-is-signalling-that-it-will-not-be-splashing-money-ind/#Hffdx2P8U1Z70wyd.99

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #114 on: August 16, 2017, 10:22:08 AM »




China's Belt and Road acquisitions surge

 onebeltoneroad
 0 comments      Kane Wu & Sumeet Chatterjee, Reuters     Published Today 9:05 am     Updated Today 9:19 am

Kane Wu & Sumeet Chatterjee, Reuters
China's Belt and Road acquisitions surge
'1MDB put off IPO after restructuring debt'
More



 
Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese companies in countries that are part of the Belt and Road initiative are soaring, even as Beijing cracks down on China's acquisitive conglomerates to restrict capital outflows.

Chinese acquisitions in the 68 countries officially linked to President Xi Jinping's signature foreign policy totalled US$33 billion (RM141.79 billion) as of Monday, surpassing the US$31 billion tally for all of 2016, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Unveiled in 2013, the Belt and Road project is aimed at building a modern-day "Silk Road", connecting China by land and sea to Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Central Asia, and beyond to the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

At a summit in May, Xi pledged US$124 billion (RM 532.78 billion) for the plan, but it has faced suspicion in Western capitals that it is intended more to assert Chinese influence than Beijing's professed desire to spread prosperity.

The surge in Chinese companies' acquisition-linked investments in the Belt and Road corridor comes as the volume of all outbound mergers and acquisitions from China dropped 42 percent year-on-year as of Monday, the Thomson Reuters data showed.

Beijing's move to prop up the yuan by restricting the flow of capital outside the country and clamp down on debt-fuelled acquisitions to ensure financial stability has made it tougher for buyers to win approvals for deals abroad.

Regulators have tightened the screws further since June, reviewing deal agreements in minute detail and ordering a group of lenders to assess their exposure to offshore acquisitions by several big companies that have been on overseas buying sprees,
including HNA Group, Dalian Wanda Group and Fosun Group.

The heightened regulatory scrutiny of overseas acquisitions comes after companies spent a record US$220 billion in 2016 on assets overseas, buying up everything from movie studios to European football clubs.

However, the scrutiny has not impacted Chinese companies' pursuit of targets along the Belt and Road corridor, as those investments are considered strategic for the companies as well as the Chinese economy.

"People are thinking in a long-term approach when making investments along Belt and Road countries," said Hilary Lau, a corporate and commercial lawyer and partner at the law firm Herbert Smith Freehills.

"The acquisitions are also policy-driven. There are funds allocated by Chinese banks and state funds for Belt and Road deals," he said.

The number of Chinese deals targeting Belt and Road countries totalled 109 this year, compared to 175 in the whole of last year and 134 in 2015, the Thomson Reuters data showed.

Smooth approval process

Companies enjoy a relatively smooth approval process for deals along the Belt and Road project as regulators tend to put them in a different basket when reviewing outbound investments, according to lawyers and dealmakers.

"If you are doing One Belt, One Road, that becomes the first sentence in the document" to the regulators, said a senior investment advisor at a Chinese company that has acquired several overseas businesses.

"It is a wise thing to point out early on," said the advisor, who requested anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

The largest deal in a Belt and Road country so far this year was a Chinese consortium's US$11.6 billion buyout of the Singapore-based Global Logistics Properties.

Other top deals include the US$1.8 billion purchase of an eight percent ownership interest in an Abu Dhabi oil company by the state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp, and HNA Group's US$1 billion acquisition of a logistics company, CWT Ltd, which has not yet closed.


The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's foreign exchange regulator, said this month that domestic companies would still be encouraged to participate in Belt and Road activities.

HNA, which has seen at least two overseas deals hit a hurdle as a result of the crackdown on transferring money, has said it plans to prioritise investments that are in industries and regions mapped out under the Belt and Road initiative.

The Belt and Road acquisitions are predominantly in energy and infrastructure sectors, said Hilary Lau of Herbert Smith Freehills.

"We've seen a lot of activities recently in Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar. The whole Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh corridor is also hot as it's connecting the East and West," he said.

- Reuters

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #115 on: August 20, 2017, 08:48:08 PM »





中国加大东南亚投资 基建发展加速前行
財经 最后更新 2017年08月20日 18时08分
中国加大东南亚投资 基建发展加速前行

0分享
来自全球第2大经济体中国的公司越来越多地向东南亚区投资,特別是基础设施建设。对一些发展中经济体而言,这是一个潜在的福音,因为如果要发挥经济潜能,它们需要大举升级公路、铁路和港口设施。不过目前中国政府正加强对对外投资的审查。

亚洲开发银行估计,为了维持经济成长、消除贫困和应对气候变化,亚洲的新兴经济体到2030年需要高达26兆美元的投资,兴建从交通网络到清洁饮水等方方面面。

这就是中国的用武之地。2015年东南亚国家接受的外国直接投资之中,来自中国的仍然只有相对较低的6.8%,但据澳纽银行驻新加坡的经济学家黄薇文(译音),中资公司在该地区重大基建项目中正占据更大的比重。

据澳纽银行数据,在去年的外国直接投资净流入之中,中国占了泰国流入的14%,越南和印尼的8%,大马的6%,占菲律宾只区区0.14%。

继续阅读,请往下滑

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澳纽银行指出,就行业而言,大部份的中国投资进入了能源、交通运输和房地產行业。

从2005年至2017年上半年,这3个行业占据了中国向东盟累计投资和建设合同的78%。

对於中国来说,机遇很大。东盟10国部份成员的经济增速在全球名列前茅,例如菲律宾和越南,增速超过6%。

东盟总人口超过6.2亿,经济规模2.6兆美元,投资潜力巨大。

世界经济论坛预测,到2020年,该地区將名列全球第5经济体。

中国宏大的「一带一路」倡议,也將加大中国在该地区的存在。可能获得中国投资的项目,包括从中国南部开始、通过寮国、连接泰国东部沿海工业区的高速铁路,以及在寮国、印尼和泰国的铁路项目。

不过,投资也不是没有风险。黄薇文在报告中写道,「东盟国家势將受益於来自中国的投资增加,但是鉴於东盟已经经由贸易和旅游而高度依赖中国,进一步的投资流入恐怕进一步加大过於集中的风险。」


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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #116 on: August 25, 2017, 07:05:44 AM »




China's 'Belt and Road' initiative could be the next risk to the global financial system
China's "Belt and Road" initiative aims to create physical and digital connections between more than 60 countries
But some are worried that the project could create a problem for China's banking sector — which would be a problem for the world
Karen Gilchrist   | @_karengilchrist
Published 17 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
China has pitched its mammoth, pan-Eurasian "Belt and Road" infrastructure initiative as a means of promoting economic prosperity and fostering diplomatic ties on a global scale.

That rhetoric may win plaudits at a time when other global powers are voicing increasingly protectionist agendas, but it also comes with risks, and increasing levels of state-backed funding have raised concerns about just how safe of a gamble it is.

China President Xi Jinping attends a news conference at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on May 15, 2017 in Beijing, China.
Jason Lee | Pool | Getty Images
China President Xi Jinping attends a news conference at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on May 15, 2017 in Beijing, China.
Reports on Tuesday claimed that some of China's biggest state-owned commercial banks will begin raising capital to fund investments into the initiative, also known as "One Belt, One Road," which aims to connect more than 60 countries across Asia, Europe and Africa with physical and digital infrastructure.

China Construction Bank, the country's second-largest bank by assets, has been conducting roadshows to raise at least 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) from on- and offshore investors, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China are also said to be raising tens of billions of dollars, though none of the banks responded to Reuters' request for comment.

The news highlights the risk that the state could amass hundreds of billions of dollars in nonperforming loans if the projects fail. For Xu Chenggang, professor of economics at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, it was not a surprise.

"A risk to China's banking system is, by default, a risk to the global banking system"
-Bjorn Conrad, vice president at the Mercator Institute for China Studies
"It supports my concerns," Xu told CNBC over the phone. "The impact could be damaging not just for China, but for the global financial system."

"These loans are being extended to governments in risky countries to fund risky infrastructure projects. If the projects were launched by private firms we wouldn't have to worry because they would know they had to bear the consequences. But here we are talking about government-to-government lending and, ultimately, intergovernmental relations."

Xu attributed that issue to a phenomenon known as soft budget constraints.

Soft budget constraints refer to the idea that state-owned firms will not be allowed to go bankrupt if they go insolvent because the state has vested interests in keeping them afloat. A country with high soft budget constraints and a large number of insolvent firms may then struggle for financing, which could have global financial implications.

For a country like China, where state-ownership has historically been high, this is a matter of particular concern. It took decades of economic reforms and loss-making firms before it succeeded in what Xu termed a process of "quiet privatization" at the turn of the 21st century.

However, the process has lost momentum over the past 10 years, and the state remains burdened with issues of overcapacity and myriad "zombie firms," especially within the metals and construction and materials sectors.


CNBC
Xu said that has partially been the motivation for the "Belt and Road" initiative: "Instead of solving the overcapacity problems, they are expanding the problem to projects overseas."

"They (China) are proposing lending money to foreign governments, who will then use the Chinese funds to pay the Chinese companies," he explained.

China's debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio surpassed 300 percent in June, according to the Institute for International Finance. And that's before the extension of further loans.

"Expansion of these soft budget constraints at such an unprecedented rate and in such a large scale is going to generate unprecedented consequences," Xu noted.

Crucially, the countries tied to the "Belt and Road" initiative are some of the riskiest developing countries in the world. A number of research bodies are now risk assessing the political, economic and business landscapes of the involved nations.

"There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a large number of projects that will have unforeseen problems," Bjorn Conrad, vice president at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told CNBC. "There are considerable risks of nonperforming credit in many of these projects and high risks of default."

"A risk to China's banking system is, by default, a risk to the global banking system," he continued.

However, he noted that the government would be working hard to assess risks after it was badly burned by lending to volatile countries such as Venezuela.

China's National Development and Reform Commission announced last week that it would strengthen regulation to reduce risk for domestic firms investing overseas and prevent "irrational" investment in the "Belt and Road" initiative.

"There will be an enormous amount of loans to give out, on a different scale to ever before, but also an awareness that they (the Chinese government) have to keep these at a manageable scale," Conrad said. "There will still be risks, but an understanding that they have to be managed with more scrutiny."

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #117 on: August 27, 2017, 11:01:04 AM »





实锤!中国通新加坡的高铁终于要动工啦!(图)
京港台:2017-8-25 21:03| 来源:新加坡万事通 | 评论( 15 )条  | 我来说几句


实锤!中国通新加坡的高铁终于要动工啦!(图)
来源:倍可亲(backchina.com)
>>美国打折网,购物神价直播!
  中泰高铁将于2017年10月开工建设!等待了这么久,终于要开工建设啦!中国驻曼谷大使馆发表声明称:中国和泰国将于今年9月签署两份协议,启动高铁项目一期工程,将于10月开始施工。这个项目最终是要将中国和新加坡、马来西亚、泰国连接起来,这足够让在新加坡生活的我们兴奋!

  


  一期工程将耗时四年

  中泰两国的代表已经就细节和费用进行了正式的会谈。今年7月泰国政府正式批准了该项目的第一阶段。据估计,该项目将耗时4年,耗资52亿美元!第一阶段将衔接曼谷到呵叻(Korat),而泰国方面将会承担所有的建设费用。中国则负责设计。中泰高铁预计在2021年建成通车,届时每日可运载乘客5300人次。

  


  一带一路计划的一部分

  泰国政府所批准的中泰高铁项目是中国一带一路计划的一部分,计划将中国南部昆明和老挝、泰国、马来西亚及新加坡连接起来。

  


  老挝与中国之间的铁路合作项目已在建设中,但由于泰国的铁路项目多年来持续因为泰国国内的融资、贷款条款和保护性劳动法规的问题而迟迟没有动工。今年十月终于要动工啦!

  


  (中国老挝铁路合作签字仪式)

  中泰高铁的第一阶段全程将有250公里,连接曼谷到呵叻。中国和泰国仍在研究二期项目的细节,计划将高铁延伸至与老挝边境接壤的廊开府(Nong Khai )。一旦这两个阶段完成,铁路将与目前正在建设中的中国-老挝铁路连接起来。曼谷和老挝首都万象之间的旅行时间只有4个小时。这条铁路将一直走到中国昆明。

  


  作为中国一带一路计划的一部分,该项目旨在改善该地区的贸易和交通基础设施。这条铁路最早是在2014年宣布的。该铁路也是泰国多年来最大的外国投资项目之一。

  中泰高铁的意义

  众所周知,东南亚旅游业非常发达,泰国更是我们喜欢去的旅行胜地。去泰国旅行的游客中,中国游客占很大比重。此次,泰国批准连接中泰高铁项目,无疑将两国经济更好的用铁路连接起来,加强了中国与泰国的友好往来。

  


  同时也加强了,中国与东南亚诸多国家的友好往来!生活在新加坡的我们,也非常期待该项目的建成通车,在将来,我们可以去泰国旅行然后直接坐着高铁回到中国,一路上还可以去各个的国家看看,想想也是很美好的体验~

  新隆高铁

  其实除了关心中泰高铁,我们更关心新隆高铁。根据规划,新隆高铁将连接新加坡和马来西亚首都吉隆坡,全长约350公里,共设8个车站,运营时速350公里,预计2026年投入使用。

  


  就在前不久,实锤消息公布,大家所期待已久的好消息终于落定了,新柔地铁将于最晚2024年12月31日前启用!!!新马双方官员终于确认了这一合作,今年年底前就新柔地铁系统签订双边协定,地铁系统预计每小时可来回接载多达2万名乘客。(参考:新柔地铁要开通了,一站直达的新加坡对岸公主湾遭疯抢!)

  


  马来西亚境内的7个车站为吉隆坡、布城、芙蓉、爱极乐、麻坡、峇株巴辖和依斯干达布蒂里;新加坡境内的终点站将设立于裕廊东,位于裕廊乡村俱乐部的原址。出资兴建高铁设施由新加坡陆路交通管理局和马国的高铁公司共同负责。双方也将共同招标,委任一家有资质的公司来管理新隆高铁。

  


  马泰两国首相聚首,并同意展开兴建吉隆坡至曼谷高铁的初步研究,这意味着新隆高铁或直抵曼谷。坐着新隆高铁到曼谷再坐上中泰高铁,将来是有可能实现哒!

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Re: —帶—路
« Reply #117 on: August 27, 2017, 11:01:04 AM »