Author Topic: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’  (Read 8370 times)

Offline zuolun

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Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« on: June 03, 2016, 11:41:57 AM »
Venezuela authorities postpone decision on Maduro referendum ~ 3 Jun 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36433535



'We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-protest-idUSKCN0YO2M9



What on earth happened in Venezuela? ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://fortune.com/2016/06/02/venezuela-crisis-key-statistics/

Crises may strike OPEC’s weakest members this year ~ OPEC’s ‘fragile five’: Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/crises-may-strike-opecs-weakest-members-this-year.html

US WTI oil 2nd Jun 2016 30-min chart



Oil dips but notches fourth straight monthly gain ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0YM01O

U.S. oil may retest a resistance zone of $42.66-$43.84 per barrel over the next
three months, a break above which could open the way towards $57.40.




Venezuela stepping up gold selling as petrodollars dry up ~ 25 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/venezuela-s-gold-holdings-contract-16-as-maduro-battles-crisis



The choice for Venezuela is stark: Either print money and fail or establish sound money (USD to the rescue?) ~ 24 May 2016
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2016/05/the-choice-*-either-print-money-and-fail-or-establish-sound-money-usd-to-the-rescue/





委内瑞拉通膨失控 汉堡竟卖170美元 ~ 23 May 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLq9JjwHKJs



Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2016, 12:55:16 PM »
Chasing China’s new drivers risks gasoline glut for refiners ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/chasing-china-s-new-drivers-risks-gasoline-glut-for-refiners



OPEC fails to reach oil production deal ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/06/02/opec-oil-production-june-meeting/85288168

How the Nigeria crisis affects energy companies ~ 1 Jun 2016
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/219096/how-the-nigeria-crisis-affects-energy-companies

Buhari leaves traders guessing on path for Nigerian currency ~ 30 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/buhari-leaves-traders-guessing-on-nigeria-devaluation-prospects



Nigeria, Venezuela and Egypt all struggle to pay airfares ~ 28 May 2016
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nigeria-Venezuela-And-Egypt-All-Struggle-To-Pay-Airfares.html

Nigeria currency crisis explained: What we know and don’t know ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/nigerian-currency-crisis-explained-what-we-know-and-don-t-know



‘Of exchange rate mechanism, exchange rate and devaluation’  ~ 23 May 2016
http://www.punchng.com/exchange-rate-mechanism-exchange-rate-devaluation/

Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut ~ 19 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129

Glencore said to store oil at sea off Singapore in contango bet
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/glencore-said-to-store-oil-in-ships-off-singapore-amid-contango



Nigeria inflation reaches record high in almost six years ~ 17 May 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNjGR1SA6FQ

Goldman sees oil deficit: What this means for energy players ~ 16 May 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/goldman-sees-oil-deficit-what-this-means-for-energy-players-cm621785

Global food prices rise for third consecutive month ~ 8 May 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wOPxIXkjGI

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2016, 01:16:31 PM »
Buhari gives Nigeria central bank go-ahead on flexible Naira ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/nigeria-s-buhari-gives-central-bank-go-ahead-for-flexible-naira



Nigeria records first trade deficit in at least seven years ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-31/nigeria-records-trade-gap-in-first-quarter-as-oil-exports-drop


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2016, 11:53:23 AM »
Will China push oil to the $30s or Venezuela send prices into orbit?

June 13, 2016

Barely a day after analysts talked excitedly about $60 oil being a distinct possibility by the end of this year, now they worry that China could send crude plummeting below the $40 level.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, raised the issue with CNBC's Squawk Box, pointing out that China is importing so much crude (about 787,000 barrels per day, which goes directly into storage, according to first quarter 2016 data) "it's absolutely insane: they're importing about a million barrels a day more than they are actually consuming."

Smith worries that the 135 million barrels stockpiled to date means China will  hit its maximum capacity of 155 million barrels within a month, at which point imports "will drop off a cliff."

With Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq ramping up production, these factors combined may force crude to plummet to $40 per barrel or even into the $30s, Smith warned.

If that happened, Ship & Bunker data suggests IFO380 prices in the primary ports would slip back under the $200 per metric tonne (pmt) mark, compared to the $252 pmt level they were at last Friday.

Still, there seems to be too many outside factors at play for anyone to convincingly predict a return of ultra-low prices.

Nigeria, whose output has been credited as significant enough to rebalance the global market single-handedly, is said to be facing an almost insurmountable challenge in ridding itself of more attacks from the militant group Niger Delta Avengers, which has disrupted oil production in that country – and contributed to the spectacular gains in prices of late.

Additionally, civil unrest prompted by a worsening economy in Venezuela is taking an increasingly ugly turn, with reports of mass looting, the killing of animals for food, and political figures attacked in the street while police look on.

Speculation is rampant that Venezuela's economy could soon collapse completely, which would cause massive oil supply disruptions – and boost prices even further.

However, Matt Smith is not alone in his analysis: John Kilduff of Again Capital told CNBC last week that oil prices will likely decline after the peak summer demand is over, possibly to $30, and he was backed by Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Analytics, who cited global oversupply as the persistent risk to prices, along with a possible U.S. interest rate hike that would strengthen the dollar and hurt crude prices.

Venezuela in crisis: 400 arrested for looting ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/venezuela-crisis-400-arrested-looting-160615195811313.html

Venezuela in talks with China for grace period in oil-for-loans deal ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-china-idUSKCN0Z01VH

4th person dies as a result of food riots rocking Venezuela ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/venezuela-steps-military-presence-town-hit-looting-39874961

Looting and unrest continue roiling Venezuela ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-venezuela-looting-20160615-snap-story.html



委内瑞拉多家华人商铺被抢 数万华人离开 ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://news.sohu.com/20160615/n454571753.shtml


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2016, 07:28:50 AM »
Nigeria allows naira to float against US dollar ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36538379



Nigeria has caved and will finally float its troubled currency ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://qz.com/707802/nigeria-has-caved-and-will-finally-devalue-its-troubled-currency/



Nigeria’s Central Bank finally throws in towel on naira peg ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/nigeria-central-bank-to-announce-new-currency-policy-wednesday



Oil's biggest wild card: Chaos in Nigeria ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/13/investing/nigeria-sabotage-oil-wild-card/

Crises may strike OPEC’s weakest members this year ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/crises-may-strike-opecs-weakest-members-this-year.html

Petro-states are going down and taking the world economy with them ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/30/there_will_be_mayhem_pity_the_poor_petro_partner/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2016, 07:51:50 AM »
What’s next for Saudi Aramco IPO, after BP plc (ADR) exit? ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.bidnessetc.com/70471-saudi-aramco-ipo-bp-exit/

OPEC net oil export revenue fell 46% In 2015, EIA says ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://oilpro.com/post/25195/opec-net-oil-export-revenue-fell-46-2015-eia-says





U.S. officials fear Saudi collapse if new prince fails ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-officials-fear-saudi-collapse-if-new-prince-fails-n593996

Petronas, Saudi Aramco said seeking pitches for $7 billion loan ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-15/petronas-saudi-aramco-said-seeking-pitches-for-7-billion-loan

Nigeria is a bigger worry for oil than Saudi Arabia ~ 15 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-05-15/nigeria-s-a-bigger-worry-for-oil-than-saudi-arabia



Saudi Arabia faces collapse: America’s Middle Eastern ally may not survive this latest oil crisis ~ 6 May 2016
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/06/saudia_arabia_is_in_serious_trouble_americas_partner/

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2016, 08:59:09 AM »
IMF welcomes Nigeria’s decision to end currency peg ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2016/06/17/imf-welcomes-nigerias-decision-to-end-currency-peg

Expert identifies cause of Nigeria’s economic woes’  ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://thenationonlineng.net/expert-identifies-cause-nigerias-economic-woes/

Chaos in Nigeria's main opposition PDP continues unabated ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.africanews.com/2016/06/17/chaos-in-nigeria-s-main-opposition-pdp-continues-unabated/

Nigerian Naira’s devaluation may drive investors to bitcoin ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/06/16/naira-devaluation-and-bitcoin/

The global picture according to OPEC ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3982098-global-picture-according-opec

Nigeria’s inflation hits six-year high ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2016/06/14/nigerias-inflation-hits-six-year-high

Niger Delta militants blow up 2 Chevron oil wells ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Niger-Delta-Militants-Blow-Up-2-Chevron-Oil-Wells.html

Nigeria: Oil production drops to 1.1mbpd after pipeline attacks ~ 30 May 2016
http://allafrica.com/stories/201605300042.html

Nigeria oil output drops again as leak adds to security woes ~ 11 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/nigeria-oil-output-drops-further-as-leak-compounds-security-woes


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2016, 11:14:55 PM »
How Brexit could still spook the oil market ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/30/how-brexit-could-still-spook-the-oil-market.html

Oil falls 2 percent on fading supply disruptions, profit taking ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0ZG04W

OPEC oil output hits record high in June on Nigerian rebound ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFL8N19L4WG

Norway oil and gas output to fall by 6 pct in case of strike - producers ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/norway-oil-strike-idUSO9N18G023

Oil bulls beware because China’s almost done amassing crude ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/oil-bulls-beware-because-china-s-almost-done-amassing-crude



Oil and gas workers in Norway headed for major strike ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://splash247.com/oil-and-gas-workers-in-norway-headed-for-major-strike/

Venezuela leads Coterie of Latin American oil producers heading for rough times ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2016/06/29/venezuela-leads-coterie-of-latin-american-oil-producers-heading-for-rough-times

WTI crude oil price forecast: Will “buy the dip” in crude prevail?  ~ 29 Jun 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/06/29/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-Will-Buy-The-Dip-In-Crude-Prevail.html

A break above key resistance @ US$51/bbl opens up a run toward US$60/bbl



U.S. WTI oil closed @ US$49.88 (+2.03, +4.07%) on tightening stockpiles, broad market recovery ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-prices-up-on-pending-norway-strike-drop-in-u-s-oil-stockpiles-1467195396



Why the U.S. oil stash has shrunk 6 weeks in a row ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/29/investing/oil-glut-inventories-decline-6-weeks/



Corruption endemic in the Oil and Gas industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Corruption-Endemic-In-The-Oil-And-Gas-Industry.html



Drilling statistics reveal grim state of B.C.'s oil and gas industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.dawsoncreekmirror.ca/regional-news/lng/drilling-statistics-reveal-grim-state-of-b-c-s-oil-and-gas-industry-1.2290731



ExxonMobil: That’s a lot of oil ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/06/29/exxonmobil-thats-a-lot-of-oil



Nigeria's Minister on Brexit's impact on the oil industry ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=5006579497001

How will Brexit affect the oil and gas industry? ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://klfy.com/2016/06/29/how-will-brexit-affect-the-oil-and-gas-industry/

Oil price: Post-Brexit slump may not be over yet ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/60838/oil-price-post-brexit-slump-may-not-be-over-yet/page/0/41



Oil is still heading to $10 a barrel ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/why-oil-is-still-headed-as-low-as-10-a-barrel



A third of California’s deep groundwater aquifers are being used for Oil and Gas ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/06/28/3793523/deep-groundwater-california-study/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2016, 07:55:19 AM »
US oil closed at $45.14 (-2.29, -4.83%) as stock draw disappoints ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/oil-edges-up-on-us-inventories-but-slowing-asia-weighs.html

US oil forms big-M pattern, break below $45.80 confirms major trend reversal ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.econotimes.com/US-oil-forms-Big-M-pattern-break-below-$4580-confirms-major-trend-reversal-232116



Nigeria spearheads OPEC’s June output jump ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nigeria-Spearheads-OPECs-June-Output-Jump.html

US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/us-oil-reserves-surpass-those-of-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2016, 07:00:59 PM »
US oil and gas groups face financing constraints

By Ed Crooks
4 July 2016

Bond sales by US independent oil and gas companies have fallen to their slowest rate for more than a decade, in a warning sign of financing constraints that could hold back the industry’s recovery.

US exploration and production companies sold just $280m of bonds in the second quarter, making it a slower period than any during the financial crisis of 2008-09, according to data provider Dealogic.

New bank lending via syndicated loans also fell to $10.7bn, making it the weakest quarter since the start of 2014.

The rebound in oil prices since February has encouraged rising optimism among the exploration and production companies that led the US shale boom. In a recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 48 per cent of E&Ps in and around Texas said their business outlook had improved in the past three months, and only 14 per cent said it had deteriorated

Some companies have been bringing into production wells that were drilled earlier but left uncompleted, and others have started to step up drilling activity.

The number of rigs running in the US to drill the horizontal wells used for shale oil production has been rising since May. At 272 last week it was at its highest level since early April, according to Baker Hughes, the oilfield services company.

Other companies have said they will add more rigs if oil prices remain at about $50 a barrel, raising the prospect that the decline in US oil production under way since April 2015 could be halted.

However, US exploration and production companies have in aggregate continued to run at a cash deficit, meaning they need to raise money from asset sales, share and bond issues and bank borrowing to finance capital spending.

The leading listed US exploration and production companies cut their capital spending to $14.9bn in the first quarter, less than half its level in the equivalent period of 2015, according to Bloomberg data. But that figure was still $10bn more than they earned in cash from operations.

Even after the rebound in oil and gas prices in recent months, it is still likely that the sector as a whole ran at a cash deficit in the second quarter.

Equity issuance by E&P companies has been very strong, hitting a record $17.8bn in the first half of the year. Companies including Pioneer Natural Resources, Southwestern Energy and Cabot Oil & Gas have sold shares this year to strengthen their balance sheets and finance capital spending.

During the boom years, however, the growth of the US shale industry was largely financed by debt, with E&P companies raising almost $860bn from bond sales and bank loans during 2007-2014.

The data suggest that smaller production groups face difficulties raising bond finance that may hamper their ability to invest in the future.

The largest bond issues in the US oil industry this year have come from the majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, and from the larger independents including Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips.

Gary Ross of Pira Energy, a consultancy, said access to capital would be critical for US oil production. “It’s not going to be easy to reconstruct this industry,” he said

WTI crude oil closed @ US$45.41 (+0.27, +0.60%), booked a weekly loss of more than 7% ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/oil-prices-edge-up-but-brent-notches-biggest-weekly-drop-since-january

WTI crude oil price forecast: ~13% decline puts fear back in crude bulls ~ 9 Jul 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/07/08/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-13-Decline-Puts-Fear-Back-In-Crude-Bulls-.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 07:17:39 AM »
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W

Oil prices inch higher ~ 11 July 2016
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/oil-prices-inch-higher/news-story/207f34906b4ee80bb83184a33314b784

WTI crude bulls unlikely to produce 1-year highs after Gravestone Doji and Shooting Star occurrences, more dips on cards ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-WTI-crude-bulls-unlikely-to-produce-1-year-highs-after-Gravestone-Doji-and-Shooting-Star-occurrences-more-dips-on-cards-233435

U.S. WTI oil broke below the  key support of $45.83. A close below the twin lows at $45.83, seen June 17 and June 27, will be deemed very bearish for crude and suggest extension lower to the May 11 lows and potentially even the May 10 low at $43.03.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2016, 08:15:02 AM »
U.S. dollar, a winner in global easing ~ 19 July 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-dollar-a-winner-in-global-easing-cm651555

End of an era: The rise and fall of the Petrodollar system ~ 19 July 2016
http://www.commoditytrademantra.com/forex-currency-trading/us-dollar/end-of-an-era-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-petrodollar-system-2/



Petrodollar recycling is the international deployment of a country's revenue from petroleum exports. It generally refers to the phenomenon of major petroleum-exporting nations – mainly the OPEC members and Russia – earning more money from the export of crude oil than they could feasibly invest in their own economies. The resulting global interdependencies and financial flows, from oil producers back to oil consumers, can reach a scale of hundreds of billions of US dollars per year across a variety of currencies, heavily influenced by government-level decisions. The phenomenon is most pronounced during periods when the price of oil is historically high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling

Petrodollar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKUfGLjNX-8


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2016, 05:31:25 AM »
US oil settles @ $42.92 (-0.21, -0.5%) a barrel ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/25/oil-prices-edge-away-from-3-month-lows-but-mood-remains-bearish.html

U.S oil - 3 months technical outlook as at 1st July 2016

U.S. oil may retrace towards $41.85 per barrel over the next
three months, as a temporary top could have formed at the June 8 high of $51.62.




Oil dips but notches fourth straight monthly gain ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0YM01O

U.S. oil may retest a resistance zone of $42.66-$43.84 per barrel over the next
three months, a break above which could open the way towards $57.40.



Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2016, 05:33:03 PM »
將帥無能,累死三軍。



IMF: Venezuela gold holdings reduced by 12 tons to 194.034 tons in May ~ 25 Jul 2016
http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/1956696/

惨!委内瑞拉被逼卖黄金还债 看到食物都哭了 ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2016-07-22/doc-ifxuhukz0791311.shtml



委內瑞拉拖欠貨款 精英驚爆29億呆帳 ~ 12 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXmyqghZKoM

跨國企業撤離委內瑞拉 ~ 12 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3g798q5yEmw

无权生病的国度 委内瑞拉医疗崩溃 ~ 8 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNd9Sp0SPUA

Venezuela refuses to default. Few people seem to understand why ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/venezuela-refuses-to-default-few-people-seem-to-understand-why



Venezuelan credit dashboard: Bonds, crude export prices rebound ~ 1 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-01/venezuelan-credit-dashboard-bonds-crude-export-prices-rebound













Venezuela stepping up gold selling as petrodollars dry up ~ 25 May 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/venezuela-s-gold-holdings-contract-16-as-maduro-battles-crisis



Clinton emails reveal direct US sabotage of Venezuela ~ 26 July 2016
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Clinton-Emails-Reveal-Direct-US-Sabotage-of-Venezuela-20160726-0041.html

Special Report: In Venezuela's murky oil industry, the deal that went too far ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-pdvsa-contract-specialrepor-idUSKCN1061U9

Venezuela’s economic woes send a chill over closest ally Cuba ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91050296-4f8a-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc.html#axzz4Fb1Kz18a


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2016, 10:14:07 AM »
US WTI oil at 3-month low of @ $41.92 (-1.00, -2.39%) per barrel ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/oil-trades-near-3-month-low-ahead-of-u-s-stockpile-data-release



The oil-price recovery is drowning in gasoline ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gasoline-glut-quells-oil-markets-recovery-hopes-1469620862



High-yield bonds still dependent on oil ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://uristfinancial.com/2016/06/02/high-yield-bonds-still-dependent-oil-bond-market-perspectives-may-31-2016/



PM Abe's plan for $265 billion stimulus puts pressure on BOJ to ease ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-abe-stimulus-idUSKCN1070AE

Japan’s road to Kyoki (insanity) ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/japans-road-to-kyoki-insanity/



Bubbles in bond land — it’s a mania! ~ 15 July 2016
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/bubbles-in-bond-land-its-a-mania/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2016, 01:31:44 PM »
US oil settles @ $41.14 (-0.78, -1.86%) a barrel ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/oil-scrambles-off-april-lows-but-oversupply-still-weighs.html

Russia raises oil production stakes as another glut beckons ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2016/07/28/russia-raises-oil-production-stakes-as-another-glut-beckons/

WTI crude oil price forecast: 3-month lows as U.S. supply glut renews sub-$40 fears ~ 28 Jul 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/07/28/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-3-Month-Lows-As-US-Supply-Glud-Renews-Sub-40-Fears.html



Crunch time for oil prices ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/07/28/crunch-time-for-oil-prices/



Swiber to wind up, biggest Singapore casualty of oil slump ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://business.asiaone.com/news/swiber-wind-biggest-singapore-casualty-oil-slump



The biggest threat to oil prices is the Dollar, not a supply glut ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Biggest-Threat-To-Oil-Prices-Is-The-Dollar-Not-A-Supply-Glut.html

Dollar tumbles as Fed stresses gradual path for interest rates ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/dollar-falls-as-fed-underscores-gradual-path-for-interest-rates


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2016, 10:10:45 AM »
Monthly Macro Outlook for August ~ 29 Jul 2016
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/monthly-macro-outlook-for-august-7958735

Gold rebounds after U.S. GDP disappoints, set for monthly gain ~ 29 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/gold-inches-up-set-for-monthly-rise-as-markets-await-boj-decision.html

Gold chart for July 28, 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-(july-28)-200144632



NYMEX oil price for September drops below US$42/bbl ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/07/market-watch-nymex-oil-price-for-september-drops-below-42-bbl.html



Elliott Wave market analysis post Fed minutes ~ 27 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJPNYAuUfp4

The Truman Show ~ 25 Jul 2016
http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1469461889.php

Oil must go to $40 and stay there to buy Russia some reforms ~ 18 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-17/oil-must-go-to-40-and-stay-there-to-buy-russia-reforms-at-last







BofA: Gold heading to US$1,500 (video) ~ 12 Jul 2016
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000533349


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2016, 07:29:47 AM »
US WTI oil closed @ $39.51 (-0.55, -1.4%) ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/01/us-crude-oil-edges-back-over-40-but-oversupply-still-weighs.html



4 signs this oil bear market is here to stay ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/4-signs-this-oil-bear-market-is-here-to-stay-200145595

Chinese demand is still a mystery. China continues to import massive amounts of oil—mostly from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Independent refiners (teapots) are buying and refining crude oil as fast as they can in China, but it seems many are actually turning around and exporting their refined products to neighboring countries. It is also unclear how much crude oil the Chinese government is storing in its strategic reserve rather than refining for immediate domestic consumption. If much of the Chinese imports are for reserves or for resale, China could suddenly cut its imports.



A strong Dollar takes a toll on commodities or does it? ~ 1 Aug 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3993441-strong-dollar-takes-toll-commodities



US Dollar Index (DXY) outlook August 1-5 ~ 31 Jul 2016
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/07/31/us-dollar-index-dxy-outlook-august-1-5/



Oil bulls beware because China’s almost done amassing crude ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/oil-bulls-beware-because-china-s-almost-done-amassing-crude



The chart that says crude oil is going to $26 ~ 19 Nov 2015
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/the-chart-that-says-crude-oil-is-going-to-26.html

A $26 print on crude "is entirely possible in this environment in strengthening dollar."



When the US dollar goes up in price, then commodities go down in price

The Dollar Index has continued to strengthen consistently since establishing a day low of 79.74 on July 1st, 2014 eventually trending up to a 12-year high of 100.51 on December 2nd, 2015. Dollar strength historically has had a strong inverse correlation with the direction in commodity prices. This relationship has been on near perfect display over the last 18 months. From a pure economic perspective to remain competitive in the world export market U.S. commodity values have been forced to compensate for Dollar strength with extremely lower values. Therefore the U.S. Dollar has played a significant role in pressuring Ag and Energy prices to new 5 and 10-year lows. Conversely when corn futures and crude oil futures were establishing new record highs from 2008 through 2012, the Dollar Index was trading consistently at near all-time lows (record low on 3/17/2008 of 70.698), which in turn incentivized traders to buy commodities as a hedge against inflation. ~ 10 Jan 2016



US dollar going up makes commodities goes down - why?

Nov 20, 2015

Commodities are priced in US dollars (even the Europeans buy a barrel of oil in US dollars). So, when the US dollar goes up in price, then commodities go down in price (all other things being equal). Does this concept make sense to you? If not, read on…

Assume 3 people (a Brit, a Frenchman and an American) are trying to buy a barrel of oil. A barrel of oil costs $43.00. For the American, the cost is straight-forward: it’s $43.00. For the Brit, because he operates his business in pound sterling, the oil costs £28.00 (due to the exchange rate) and for the Frenchman, the oil costs €40.00.

But suddenly, the US dollar appreciates by 10% versus the other currencies. The American doesn’t really care: he is still prepared to pay $43.00 for the barrel – nothing has changed for him. But the Brit can only afford to pay £28.00, which, because of the new exchange rate, is now worth only $38.70. The Frenchman is in the same position: he can only afford to pay €40 for the barrel of oil, which now equates to $38.70.

There are no other buyers at the moment because everyone else has already bought enough oil for the time being (e.g. demand is constant). So the oil seller is forced to drop his price to meet what the Brit and the Frenchman are prepared to pay. Nothing has really changed: the Brit and Frenchman still bought 1 barrel of oil at the same cost to them (in terms of their own currency), but the price of the oil went down. And it went down solely because the value of the US dollar went up.

While this is obviously a simplified example, this is essentially what happens on a large scale. Replace “Brit” and “Frenchman” with the UK economy and the European economy. Add in the Chinese, Japanese, Africans and everyone else (all of whom think of the cost of oil in their own currencies) and you get the above example occurring on a much bigger scale. That’s why when the US dollar goes up in value (and all other factors – like demand – remain constant), the price of oil goes down.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2016, 09:27:50 AM »
How Saudi Arabia has been mastering the oil market ~ 7 Aug 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/08/07/how-saudi-arabia-has-been-mastering-the-oil-market/

If Iran opens its oil sector, is Saudi Arabia next? ~ 7 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-08-07/saudi-arabia-should-follow-iran-on-foreign-oil-sector-investors



What analysts are saying about Chesapeake Energy after earnings ~ 7 Aug 2016
http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2016/08/07/what-analysts-are-saying-about-chesapeake-energy-after-earnings/

Move over Saudi Arabia, Russia is selling more oil to China than you ~ 5 Aug 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/08/05/move-over-saudi-arabia-russia-is-selling-more-oil-to-china-than-you/

Saudi Arabia cuts Asian oil prices to counter rivals Russia, Iraq and Iran ~ 5 Aug 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-cuts-asian-oil-prices-to-counter-rivals-russia-iraq-and-iran-1470416304

The 5 reasons I sold my last Chesapeake energy bond ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3995615-5-reasons-sold-last-chesapeake-energy-bond



A penny stock DBS couldn’t save roils Singapore’s oil hub, banks ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-07/a-penny-stock-dbs-couldn-t-save-roils-singapore-s-oil-hub-banks



Low oil price fuels Chinese imports — and exports ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/low-oil-price-fuels-chinese-importsand-exports-1470202503

Chevron is slowly destroying itself ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3995005-chevron-slowly-destroying

Chevron's debt levels for the past few years



DW: Global oilfield services – offshore spending stuck in the doldrums ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.energyglobal.com/upstream/drilling-and-production/02082016/DW-global-oilfield-services-offshore-spending-stuck-in-the-doldrums/

Saudi Arabia cuts oil price to Asia as battle with Iran heats up ~ 1 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-price-asia-battle-iran-heats/

Big oil companies' profit hits decade low ~ 31 Jul 2016
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/07/31/big-oil-profit-falls/30940917/

Chevron earnings surprise with loss on $2.8 billion in charges ~ 29 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/chevron-earnings-surprise-with-profit-loss-on-28b-in-charges.html

ExxonMobil profit drop 60%; falls to a new Low on low commodity prices ~ 29 Jul 2016
http://sputniknews.com/world/20160729/1043757152/us-oil-profit-exxonmobil.html

Shell profit falls 93% amid low oil prices ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shell-profit-falls-93-amid-low-oil-prices-2016-07-28

BP's 2Q profit falls off 45% as lower oil, weak refining strain industry ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-26/bp-profit-drops-45-on-lower-crude-oil-prices-misses-estimates





Singapore bank concerns grow on oil and gas sector as DBS reports Swiber exposure ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/ocbc-results-idUSL4N1AF17Z?

Oil, gas exposure is 'biggest concern for Singapore banks'

By Jacqueline Woo
Mar 17, 2016



A "deep-stress" test for the oil and gas sector here has found that the proportion of non-performing loans for Singapore banks in this area could go up to 33 per cent, given the prolonged weakness in crude prices, said Credit Suisse.

The scenario takes into account companies with a high net gearing and net debt, their ability to pay the interest charges on their debts as well as cash below their short-term financial liabilities.

Singapore's oil and gas sector has borrowed about $25 billion, with 74 per cent or $18.3 billion of that sourced from the banks.

The sharp decline in oil prices - down about 65 per cent since June 2014 - and sustained cash outflows have led to declining order books and rising balance sheet stress for firms, said the Credit Suisse report.

It estimates that aggregate net gearing in the offshore and marine sector rose sharply to 0.65 times in December last year, from less than 0.2 times in March 2014.

The report said oil and gas-related exposure likely poses the biggest concern for Singapore banks in the near term. But other risks related to their exposure to China, ASEAN and Singapore property could also "drive loan losses higher if macro conditions weaken further".

That said, the report noted that several offshore and marine firms have taken various approaches in strengthening their balance sheets to weather the downturn.

Ezra Holdings, for instance, had lowered its net gearing to 0.8 times as at Nov 30 following a rights issue, while Vallianz Holdings raised $24 million from a placement and completed a refinancing exercise.

Credit Suisse maintains an "underweight" call on the offshore and marine sector, which is "not (yet) out of the woods".

"We expect demand for new-build rigs to remain weak even in the event of a recovery of the oil price to US$50 per barrel. In addition, we believe there are risks of further provisions should customers continue to defer or cancel rig deliveries," it said.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2016, 09:24:47 AM »
US WTI oil closed @ $42.77 (-0.25, -0.6%) a barrel ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/reuters-america-update-12-oil-down-1-pct-on-glut-worry-api-cites-surprise-us-crude-build.html

API data shows surprise biggest US crude oil inventory build in 3 months ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/API-Reports-Biggest-Crude-Oil-Build-in-3-Months-Significant-Gasoline-Draw.html

US dollar technical analysis: Hello 12,000, my old friend ~ 9 Aug 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/us_dollar_index/2016/08/09/US-DOLLAR-Technical-Analysis-Hello-12000-My-Old-Friend.html

WTI crude oil price forecast: Bear market prompts OPEC meeting ~ 8 Aug 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/08/08/WIT-Crude-Oil-Price-OPEC-Meeting.html



Ringgit leads emerging currencies lower as stocks extend decline ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/08/03/ringgit-leads-emerging-currencies-lower-as-stocks-extend-decline/



Oil prices and real interest rates: An IMF paper ~ 28 Mar 2016
http://www.blackgolddisease.com/2016/03/oil-prices-and-real-interest-rates-imf.html

The IMF paper mentions a currency-adjusted price decline. Because of the "20% dollar appreciation," the real price change lingers around $60. The price weakness coupled with the dollar appreciation has resulted in emerging, oil exporting markets to be hurt more than usual. From their perspective, their revenue has been discounted while the real value of their debt increased.



日本负利率突然偷袭 全球金融市场满地鸡毛 ~  3 Mar 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Mc5phkx4K0

美元加息痛剪羊毛 ~  31 Dec 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klPg-l6aT7s


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2016, 05:05:44 PM »
委内瑞拉人民最受伤 白宫阴谋差点让活人变死鬼 ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://news.cngold.com.cn/20160809d1702n77713437.html

Venezuela sets recall referendum timetable ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37030387

These tweets show just how bad things have gotten in Venezuela ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/9/12406260/venezuela-health-care-tweets



Witnessing a ‘complete collapse of society’ in Venezuela ~ 9 Aug 2016
http://time.com/4419186/photographing-venezuela-collapse/



China will provide $5 billion loans to help Venezuela increase oil production~ 6 Aug 2016
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=332179

Venezuela swapping oil-for-food as economic crisis grows ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/08/03/Venezuela-swapping-oil-for-food-as-economic-crisis-grows/5131470212519/

Oil-for-drugs swap: India’s answer to Venezuela’s unpaid bills ~ 19 May 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-for-Drugs-Swap-Indias-Answer-to-Venezuelas-Unpaid-Bills.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2016, 08:47:15 AM »
WTI crude oil closed @ $44.49 (+1.00, +2.25%) on short covering, hope for producer action ~ 13 Aug 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/oil-up-2-percent-on-short/3037948.html

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq hit records together first time since 1999 ~ 12 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/oil-slump-clouds-asian-stock-outlook-as-kiwi-climbs-with-copper



WTI crude oil price forecast: Here comes the flood of supply ~ 11 Aug 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/08/10/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-Here-Comes-the-Flood-of-Supply.html



Short squeeze hits oil prices - oil markets daily ~ 8 Aug 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3997409-short-squeeze-hits-oil-prices-oil-markets-daily



Are Sovereign Wealth Funds roiling global financial markets? ~ 15 Feb 2016
http://www.seeitmarket.com/sovereign-wealth-funds-roiling-global-financial-markets-equities-oil-prices-15325/
  • How did equity markets become so closely correlated with the price of crude oil? Enter Sovereign Wealth Funds into the picture.
  • There has been some recent speculation regarding large sovereign wealth funds (SWF’s) heavily liquidating assets. If true, it’s not difficult to imagine which ones are doing the selling. Those representing oil producing countries, which are funded by revenues from oil and gas sales, are likely shedding positions, especially riskier ones, to make up for lost revenue from energy.
  • Following the financial crisis of 2008, sovereign wealth funds have grown into very powerful entities, with an enormous influence on financial markets. The substantial financial resources at their disposal (also thanks to billions of dollars in revenue from energy related sales) have allowed sovereign wealth funds to take on a central role in financial markets in the last eight years.
  • The drop in the price of oil, however, is now beginning to take its toll on those sovereign wealth funds that benefitted from high energy prices over the years. Analysts at RBS calculate that the boom years brought in roughly $700-800 billion to oil producing countries, much of which was being reinvested in global financial markets, much of which in equities. The current slide in oil prices, however, has reduced those revenues to roughly $200-300 billion. The plunge in the price of oil has not only hit U.S. shale plants, but has also rocked global markets, which are witnessing a drying up of liquidity compared to recent years.
The important role played by Sovereign Wealth Funds exposure to oil and gas related assets.




Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2016, 07:36:29 AM »
Morgan Stanley: Oil prices will crash again soon ~ 15 Aug 2016
http://etfdailynews.com/2016/08/15/morgan-stanley-oil-prices-will-crash-again-soon/

The temporary spike should fade once option expiry passes on Aug 17th; higher oil prices reflect a short squeeze rally



Hedge funds add bullish positions in oil as short-covering rally starts ~ 15 Aug 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-global-kemp-idUSKCN10Q1FO

Oil prices are on fire -- up 10% in just 3 days ~ 15 Aug 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/15/investing/oil-prices-jump-opec-freeze/



US drillers add rigs (to 396) for 7th straight week ~ 13 Aug 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/us-drillers-add-rigs-for-seventh-straight-week-20160812-gqrnhv.html

Oil prices could rise further on short-covering ~ 13 Aug 2016
http://rigspot.net/2016/08/13/oil-prices-could-rise-further-on-short-covering/

Bout of short covering propels oil prices ~ 8 Aug 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bout-Of-Short-Covering-Propels-Oil-Prices.html

Oil jumps 3% as short-covering pushes U.S. crude firmly over $40 ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN10F04Z

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 08:04:48 AM »
OPEC rumors continue to pull oil prices higher ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Rumors-Continue-To-Pull-Oil-Prices-Higher.html





Oil prices rise on OPEC hopes, weaker dollar ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-prices-rise-on-opec-hopes-weaker-dollar-20160816-00829



Dollar falls to 7-week low as outlook for Fed rate increase dims ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/dollar-extends-drop-as-faltering-economy-pares-rate-boost-wagers



Morgan Stanley: ‘’The oil rally might end on Wednesday’’ ~ 15 Aug 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Morgan-Stanley-The-Oil-Rally-Might-End-On-Wednesday.html



How do crude oil prices affect oil stocks? ~ 14 Aug 2016
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/14/how-do-crude-oil-prices-affect-oil-stocks.aspx

Oil stocks as measured by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEMKT:XLE) have basically moved in sync with crude oil prices.



The impact of the financial market on crude prices is growing not only due to hedge funds and other speculators pouring into the market, but oil producers are hedging a greater percentage of their volumes to mute some of the volatility and lock in cash flow.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2016, 10:26:14 AM »
Singapore defaults boost calls for aid as oil firms falter ~ 19 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/singapore-defaults-boost-calls-for-state-aid-as-oil-firms-falter


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2016, 09:21:12 AM »
Cash up or ship out: it's the big O&M squeeze post-Swiber

Deleveraging and improving cash flow are key for offshore and marine players - but time may be running out for some, say analysts

29 August 2016

Singapore - CASH flow statements and debt refinancing plans of O&M (offshore and marine) counters have come under intense scrutiny, as analysts and stakeholders attempt to distinguish players more at risk than others.

It's a wake-up call triggered by the demise of the industry's once rising star, Swiber Holdings, which is now in the midst of a judicial management exercise.

A Business Times scan of small and mid-cap O&M companies - drawn from the watch lists of equity analysts - indicates a challenging patch ahead for many.

These O&M players face four key challenges: high debt-to-equity gearing of over 100 per cent; low or negative cash flows; short-term debt of above S$100 million; and/or medium-term-note redemption deadlines running through 2019.

BT drew on data released as at Aug 19 on Bloomberg, latest company results, and analyst reports.

Of the 14 companies on the list, 12 have short-term debt of over S$100 million, 10 have negative/low cash flow, and nearly all are highly geared.



With recovery still eluding the sector, the key to survival depends on how far industry players have deleveraged or cashed up to last through an industry shake-up in the wake of Swiber, analysts said. However, time may just not be on the side of many small and mid-cap industry players even as enquiries for oilfield services have increased.

IHS principal researcher Ang Dingli noted that oil companies have grown more accustomed to lower (but more stable) oil prices and may issue more tenders for new field developments at the end of 2016 or early 2017 as they are also being pressed to replace depleting oil and gas reserves. But Mr Ang qualified that these tenders will be released at a more deliberate pace and for limited projects.

He also warned that only "a few fortunate O&M players" - primarily large- cap yard operators with established track records in executing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects - may benefit from any uptick. The rest would have to tread water at least until the end of 2017.

Mr Ang noted that EPC contractors - primarily those with a yard presence - have "already done what they could to lower costs either through restructuring or retrenchments of non-core staff".

He sees a lack of demand for their services as the bigger setback. Adding to the woes of small and mid-cap EPC contractors is excess capacity, partly from overinvestment in the module fabrication sub-segment in the days of high oil prices.

These contractors also face challenges from higher local content requirements imposed by some national oil companies that could restrict participation in subcontract work for new EPC awards.

EPC awards would also take months to multiply into contracting opportunities for supporting services including those for offshore support vessels (OSV).

The OSV segment is still haunted by a supply glut from excessive newbuilding and demand destruction from a slump in offshore drilling and EPC activities. Pareto Securities chief executive David Palmer said: "There is a tsunami of newbuilding (OSVs) completed and ready for delivery that are sitting in the yards."

The key uncertainty, according to Mr Palmer, is that "the exact number of newbuilding OSVs is indeterminate" and that "most industry numbers are understated". He suggested the supply glut - though more prevalent among shipshape OSV assets - has also compromised demand for liftboats, which were once touted as an asset class still above water.

One estimate is that hundreds of OSVs have yet to be delivered from China. M3 Marine's managing director Mike Meade noted that Chinese shipbuilders have tried to link up with active OSV operators to offload the excess vessels (resulting from defaults on shipbuilding contracts). The result could be more vessels competing for work in an already oversupplied OSV market.

One of the world's largest OSV owner-operators, Tidewater, recently breached an interest covenant, sparking speculation that the New York-listed player may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if it cannot secure waivers from its lenders and noteholders. Tidewater is headquartered in New Orleans and operates as a private-owned entity in Singapore.

On the situation here, Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP partner Robson Lee warned: "Holders of unsecured bonds issued by a company that has become mired in dire financial straits (such as Swiber) will have very little recourse to recover their investments in the event of an insolvent winding up." He noted that in such a situation, there is certainly no chance of any redemption. Others noted that bonds or debts in the O&M sector would have to be restructured (which typically involves either a substantial haircut or conversion to equity) or their repayments deferred. Support from lenders will be crucial.

Regional maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) solutions provider Mencast has, for instance, secured loan and credit facilities of up to S$74.9 million from UOB that will go towards redeeming S$50 million of outstanding bonds due on Sept 12, refinance certain liabilities, and provide for its working capital needs.

In Swiber's case, the affidavit for its judicial management application indicated that it had taken up lending facilities from DBS to repay medium-term notes due in June and July. BT earlier reported major local banks have worked with Swiber as well as Pacific Radiance to extend repayment deadlines for their loans. However, Swiber's subsequent troubles prompted some to ask if those efforts had been adequate in the face of a major O&M meltdown.

Unlike Swiber, some Singapore-listed players may be able to tap their cash-rich anchor shareholders. Malaysian tycoon Yaw Chee Siew, who has bankrolled Otto Marine through the years, set out earlier this year to take the OSV-focused player private. His decision to delist Otto Marine came as depressed O&M stock prices limited the effectiveness of further equity injections.

For O&M players with no cash-rich anchor shareholders to lean on, Mr Palmer extended a glimmer of hope: that the needed cash could eventually enter the system from "some unconventional sources not previously in this sector". But this may "severely dilute existing equity".

He warned that under the current excess capacity conditions (particularly severe in the OSV segment), "we will need to see more 'blood' before more sustainable capital will come in to fund companies".

But for the brave, there could be bargain-hunting opportunities. "Investors . . . have to tolerate extreme volatility and uncertainty in the short term but those who can identify companies that will make it through stand to (reap) fantastic returns," Mr Palmer said.

DBS is one of the principal bankers for almost all the O&M companies in the list.



Latest Splash Chat live Q&A casts a long, dark shadow over offshore ~ 26 Aug 2016
http://splash247.com/latest-splash-chat-live-qa-casts-long-dark-shadow-offshore/

KrisEnergy faces debt covernant stress, bond value plunges ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://investmentmoats.com/stock-market-commentary/krisenergy-faces-debt-covernant-stress-bond-value-plunges/



Double boost for Vallianz post-Swiber ~ 15 Aug 2016
http://splash247.com/double-boost-vallianz-post-swiber/

Tidewater misses on earnings, may file Chapter 11 ~ 11 Aug 2016
https://www.workboat.com/news/offshore/tidewater-misses-earnings-may-file-chapt11/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #26 on: September 01, 2016, 09:37:43 AM »
Oil futures settle @ $44.70 (-1.65, -3.6%) with a gain of 7.5% for the month ~ 31 Aug 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-settle-with-a-gain-of-75-for-the-month-2016-08-31



Gold futures fall, notch first monthly decline since May ~ 31 Aug 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-holds-at-two-month-lows-ahead-of-job-market-snapshot-2016-08-31



USDOLLAR Index Chart: Sharp reversal from nine-week lows ~ 31 Aug 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/us_dollar_index/2016/08/31/US-DOLLAR-Technical-Analysis-Fed-Tempts-Dollar-Bulls-To-Bite.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2016, 09:57:58 AM »
US oil closed @ $44.44 (+1.28, +2.97%) a barrel as U.S. jobs data hits dollar; tumbles on week ~ 3 Sep 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/oil-heads-biggest-weekly-loss-mid-january



Crude oil prices fell for a fifth consecutive day, making for the longest losing streak in a month, having topped near the $49/bbl figure (as expected). Near-term support is now at 42.91, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 76.4% level at 41.48. Alternatively, a rebound above the 50% Fib at 44.07 targets the 38.2% retracement at 45.22. ~ 2 Sep 2016



Speculators cut net long U.S. dollar bets to 8-week low - CFTC~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/cftc-forex-idUSL1N1BE1M5

Dollar slides as jobs report damps chances of Fed rate increase ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-02/dollar-slides-as-jobs-report-damps-chances-of-fed-rate-increase



Dec gold settles at $1,326.70/oz (+$9.60, +0.7%) for the session ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-fall-on-pace-for-weekly-drop-ahead-of-much-anticipated-jobs-report-2016-09-02
Gold eked out a gain of less than 0.1% for the week, according to FactSet data. Gold rebounded Thursday but it settled at a two-month low on Wednesday.

Gold rebounds from post-Brexit lows ~ 1 Sep 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/gold-rebounds-from-postbrexit-lows-20160901-00947

Gold prices test 9 month trend support ~ 1 Sep 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2016/09/01/Gold-prices-9-month-trend-JWew.html
  • If prices hold above the blue trend line, then it suggests the uptrend is still in force and the door remains open to higher levels near $1375 and possibly $1435.
  • If the blue trend line breaks, then the break may indicate gold prices have topped. We will be keeping an eye out for impulsive declines to $1200.


US dollar rose: Why did it pull precious metals lower? ~ 29 Aug 2016
http://marketrealist.com/2016/08/us-dollar-rose-pull-precious-metals-lower/
DXY index: The relationship between precious metals and precious metal–denominated metals is inverse. The higher the price of the dollar, the lower the demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Gold’s record selling overhang ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.zealllc.com/2016/grcdsovr.htm

Gold today – Is a sell-off imminent? ~ 14 Jul 2016
https://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-analysis-and-research/gold-today-is-sell-off-imminent-115741/



Hedge funds held record bullish gold price bets before Brexit ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.mining.com/hedge-funds-held-record-bullish-gold-price-bets-brexit/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2016, 04:16:06 PM »
New Origin CEO Frank Calabria to focus on cutting $9 billion debt ~ 11 Sep 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-origin-ceo-frank-calabria-to-focus-on-cutting-9-billion-debt-20160911-grdolg.html

Tanker Market: Third Quarter was also a “soft” one for freight rates says leading ship owner ~ 10 Sep 2016
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tanker-market-third-quarter-was-also-a-soft-one-for-freight-rates-says-leading-ship-owner/

Mexico's $1 billion oil hedge may pay economic dividends ~ 10 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/09/mexicos-1-billion-oil-hedge-may-pay-economic-dividends.html

The real reason why oil companies are gobbling each other up ~ 10 Sep 2016
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/the-real-reason-why-oil-companies-are-gobbling-each-other-up-113943797.html



Gold slips after Fed comments boost dollar ~ 9 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/08/gold-steady-on-weaker-dollar-on-track-for-2nd-straight-weekly-gain.html

Gold prices search for direction ~ 9 Sep 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/post_of_the_day/2016/09/09/Gold-price-search-for-direction-JWew.html
The 9 month trend line near $1300 is the key level for bulls and bears.



China’s teapot refinery tax threatens global oil demand ~ 9 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Teapot-Refinery-Tax-Threatens-Global-Oil-Demand.html

Is the tanker market back in “oversupply mode”? ~ 9 Sep 2016
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/is-the-tanker-market-back-in-oversupply-mode/





US oil settles at $45.88 (-1.74, - 3.65%) a barrel ~ 9 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/08/oil-pulls-back-after-big-jump-on-us-crude-stock-draw.html



Sharp rise in US bond yields triggers USD/JPY break higher ~ 8 Sep 2016
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/09/08/sharp-rise-in-us-bond-yields-triggers-usdjpy-break-higher/



Singapore oil debt pain spreads as company ties make situation worse ~ 6 Sep 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/singapore-oil-debt-pain-spreads-as-company-ties-make-situation-worse

Tankers: UKC-East VLCC freight rates fall to lowest recorded level on abundant supply ~ 5 Sep 2016
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/london/tankers-ukc-east-vlcc-freight-rates-fall-to-lowest-26537406

Saudi-Russia output talk disappoints oil-market bulls ~ 5 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-05/saudi-russia-output-talk-disappoints-oil-market-bulls-chart




Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2016, 05:39:18 PM »
Oil bet gone wrong: rusting tankers and rigs clog up Asian waters ~ 22 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-glut-idUSKCN11R2YI

The crazy, mixed-up global oil market ~ 13 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/the-crazy-mixed-up-global-oil-market



Why are more and more oil ships anchoring off Singapore? ~ 29 June 2016
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160628-why-are-more-and-more-oil-ships-anchoring-off-singapore

Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut ~ 21 May 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/crude-tanker-storage-fleet-singapore-points-stubborn-oil-glut


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #30 on: September 24, 2016, 09:01:40 AM »
Oil tumbles as Saudis said to see Algiers talks as consultation ~ 24 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-22/oil-pares-gains-as-saudi-iran-said-to-meet-again-before-algiers
  • Saudi Arabia doesn’t expect a supply decision: OPEC source
  • OPEC members are meeting on Sept. 28 in the Algerian capital


Fed targets big bank commodity lines ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-proposes-limits-on-bank-commodity-trading-1474646400

The start of something big? Iran changes oil contracts ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Start-Of-Something-Big-Iran-Changes-Oil-Contracts.html

Crude crashes as Saudis kill OPEC meeting before it even started ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Crude-Crashes-As-Saudis-Kill-OPEC-Meeting-Before-It-Even-Started.html

US WTI closed at $44.48 (-1.84, -3.97%)  a barrel ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN11S01T



Dollar subdued, on course for weekly loss ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---dollar-subdued,-on-course-for-weekly-loss-428091
The U.S. dollar index at 95.36, down 0.76% for the week to date.

Gold prices lose steam after post-FOMC rally, may turn lower ~ 23 Sep 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2016/09/23/Gold-Prices-Lose-Steam-After-Post-FOMC-Rally-May-Turn-Lower.html
Gold prices stalled below resistance at a falling trend line set from early July after rising to a two-week high. A daily close above this threshold – now at 1346.51 – exposes a double top at 1367.15. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1333.62 targets the 1303.62-08.00 area (May 2 high, 38.2% level).



Why oil markets should brace for OPEC disappointment ~ 21 Sep 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-oil-markets-should-brace-for-opec-disappointment-cm683022

Russia is pumping oil at its fastest pace since the Soviet era ~ 21 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/russia-pumps-oil-at-record-pace-as-supply-talks-with-opec-near


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #31 on: September 30, 2016, 08:26:34 AM »
Is Russia about to ruin the oil price revival? ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-Russia-About-To-Ruin-The-Oil-Price-Revival.html

Relief arrives for U.S. shale firms as OPEC folds in price battle ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-usa-shale-idUSKCN11Z0BT

US WTI oil closed @ $47.83 (+0.78, +1.66%) on OPEC deal optimism ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/28/oil-prices-climb-on-opec-deal-lack-of-detail-caps-gains.html

Increased Iranian oil production is no threat to Russia ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/increased-iranian-oil-production-no-threat-russia



Oil bankruptcies: 100 down, maybe 100 more to go ~ 28 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/28/oil-bankruptcies-100-down-maybe-100-more-to-go.html

Amid freeze talks, Russia expects more oil production ~ 28 Sep 2016
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2016/09/28/Amid-freeze-talks-Russia-expects-more-oil-production/9001475063767/

Russia smashes post-soviet oil supply record as OPEC weighs curb ~ 28 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/russia-smashes-post-soviet-oil-supply-record-as-opec-weighs-curb



Russia dominates as China’s crude oil exporter: The impact ~ 28 Sep 2016
http://marketrealist.com/2016/09/russia-dominates-as-chinas-crude-oil-exporter-the-impact/



How actual nuts and bolts are bringing down oil prices ~ 28 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/how-actual-nuts-and-bolts-are-bringing-down-oil-prices
Forget shale. There's a broader - much more boring - technological revolution sweeping oil markets.





Two years into oil slump, U.S. shale firms are ready to pump more ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/two-years-into-oil-slump-u-s-shale-firms-are-ready-to-pump-more-1474968601

8 markets in contango and backwardation ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/09/8-markets-contango-backwardation/

Oil producers tap rising demand from China’s ‘teapot’ refiners ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/oil-producers-tap-rising-demand-from-chinas-teapot-refiners/news-story/4e718be435f5fca8a70fbe5bb2e06db1
China’s independent refiners have been big buyers of Russia’s oil. The surge is partly due to less stringent terms imposed by the Russians. Middle East suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran were far more expensive and inflexible on pricing. What the teapots care about most is still prices.

Oil exporters focus on supply, but what of China demand?: Russell ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-crude-china-idUSKCN11X0MM
In practical terms, this means China will likely continue buying when prices are cheap, but may wind back if prices rise to a level deemed expensive. But if any reduction in crude supply is merely matched by lower demand from major importers such as China, it may make the producers' efforts a moot point.

China likes to stockpile crude oil whenever prices are at $50 or lower ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-likes-to-stockpile-crude-oil-2016-9



US crude oil rig count rose for the 12th time in 13 weeks ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://marketrealist.com/2016/09/us-crude-oil-rig-count-rose-12th-time-13-weeks/



World’s hottest oil market gets a jolt from China’s taxman ~ 6 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-05/world-s-hottest-oil-market-gets-a-jolt-from-china-s-taxman
  • China’s private refiners under scrutiny amid tax crackdown
  • Other challenges include fuel oversupply, poor nfrastructure

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #32 on: September 30, 2016, 03:59:54 PM »
In u-turn, Saudis choose higher prices over free oil markets ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/in-u-turn-saudis-pick-cash-over-flirting-with-free-oil-markets

9/11 lawsuits bill causes Saudi Arabia 'great concern'  ~ 29 Sep 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37515049


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2016, 09:10:33 AM »
Asia soaks up Iran’s post-sanctions oil ~ 9 Oct 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-soaks-up-irans-post-sanctions-oil-1476002379

OPEC's miracle might just be a mirage ~ 9 Oct 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-10-09/opec-oil-freeze-miracle-might-be-a-mirage

Disorder in OPEC ranks? Iraq to increase oil output ~ 9 Oct 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/10/09/disorder-in-opec-ranks-iraq-to-increase-oil-output

‘OPEC honeymoon’ may continue, but rally will stall, analysts say ~ 7 Oct 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/07/oil-prices-opec-honeymoon-may-continue-but-rally-will-stall-analysts-say.html

How sanctions have benefited Russian oil ~ 7 Oct 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Sanctions-Have-Benefited-Russian-Oil.html
The rapid devaluation of the ruble brought on by international sanctions and lower oil prices made it cheaper for Russian oil and gas operators to produce their dollar-denominated commodity. Since oil is sold in dollars globally, a devalued ruble was actually good news for Russian E&Ps facing lower oil prices. Even as prices fell, the conversion from petrodollars back into rubles meant that Russian operators will still be paying less than before to produce from their assets.



U.S. crude passes $50 a barrel for the first time since June ~ 6 Oct 2016
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-crude-passes-50-a-barrel-for-the-first-time-since-june-20161006-00604

2016 oil price forecasts: Why is everyone getting it wrong ~ 6 Oct 2016
http://www.petroleumworld.com/editorial-op16101001.htm



Oil trading alert: Crude oil – Double top or further rally? ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/free-alerts/oil-trading-alert-2016-10-05/



Smoke and mirrors: What did OPEC really agree on? ~ 30 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Smoke-And-Mirrors-What-Did-OPEC-Really-Agree-On.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #34 on: October 20, 2016, 03:01:21 PM »
Singapore’s $24 billion wipeout eats into its shipyard base ~ 19 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/singapore-s-24-billion-wipeout-eats-into-city-s-shipyard-base
  • Rig-builders have shed more than 25,000 jobs since mid-2014
  • Keppel, Sembcorp Marine profit poised to slide amid oil slump




Singapore banks ‘underweight’ amid fears of worsening asset quality

October 19, 2016

CIMB is keeping its “underweight” rating on Singapore banks amid worries over further worsening in asset quality, ahead of the local banks’ 3Q earnings announcements.

OCBC, UOB, and DBS are scheduled to report their quarterly earnings on Oct 27, Oct 28, and Oct 31, respectively.

CIMB analyst Jessalynn Chen says 3Q earnings are expected to fall between a “manageable” 2-5% q-o-q on the back of weaker net interest income (NII) and higher provisions as more oil & gas accounts turn into non-performing loans (NPL).

This could be partially offset as non-NII is expected to improve after a risk-off second quarter, Chen adds. Non-NII is also expected to hold up despite fund outflows as a result of Indonesia’s tax amnesty programme.

“[Wealth management] fees could hold up relatively well as client activity picked up in 3Q. Trading could also see a decent quarter as markets recovered post-Brexit,” Chen says in a report on Tuesday.

The biggest worry for Singapore banks is the further deterioration of asset quality in the oil & gas portfolio as more corporates seek refinancing and restructuring of loans.

Chen believes the problems faced by Swiber, Perisai, Ausgroup, Marco Polo Marine and Swissco, which account for close to 14% of the banks’ combined exposure to the upstream oil & gas sector, is just the tip of the iceberg. “The worst is yet to come,” she says.

“We think the real worry will be in 2017-18 when most bonds issued by the oil & gas players are due, especially those with large debt obligations,” Chen says.

“While we think the earnings decline could be digestible in 3Q16 and provide some short-term trading opportunities, we see more pronounced earnings deterioration in 4Q16 onwards,” she adds.

CIMB is keeping its “hold” ratings on UOB and DBS Group, with target prices of $18.52 and $15.31, respectively.

The research house says UOB is expected to see the most resilient earnings in 3Q as efforts to manage cost of funds and improve asset yields should limit net interest margin (NIM) downside.

“[UOB]’s smallest exposure to oil & gas also lends comfort as worries deepen,” Chen adds.

Meanwhile, CIMB is keeping its “reduce” rating on OCBC with a target price of $8.11.

UOB ended 1.2% higher at $18.74, DBS closed 0.1% higher at $15.08 while OCBC closed 0.2% higher at $8.51.

SIA ~ Bearish symmetrical triangle breakout, TP S$9.10

SIA closed with a hammer @ S$10.18 (+0.01, +0.1%) with 1.36m shares done on 19 Oct 2016.

Immediate support @ S$10.10, immediate resistance @ S$10.30.

When a stock is in a bear-market territory, the last low will be retested and the share price will move much further down, forming a new record low.



Yields still under pressure for SIA group

October 19, 2016

Credit Suisse says competitive pressure will remain on Singapore Airlines’ passenger yield although the investment bank likes its strategy of portfolio of airlines and multi-hub strategy.

“We think the 2Q FY17 operating statistics point to a tough competitive environment and will present traffic and yield pressures to SIA in the near term,” says lead analyst Christopher Siow in an Oct 18 report.

SIA last night reported operating statistics for 2Q17, where load factors fell across SIA’s portfolio airlines on weaker passenger demand and strong competition.

Passenger traffic declined 4.6% from a year ago and load factor fell 3.3 percentage points for the parent airline, with the greatest drop in load factor (3-5 percentage points) on its long-haul regions (Europe/South West Pacific/Americas).

Cathay Pacific recently announced that expectations of a better 2H16 group profit than 1H16 do not hold, due to a deteriorating outlook.

“While we think CX faces greater competitive pressures from Chinese carriers and headwinds from its hedging policy, this suggests a muted outlook for 2H CY16 for SIA too,” says Siow.

Credit Suisse is cutting earnings estimates 7-20% on lower yield and traffic expectations, and downgrade SIA to “Neutral” with a new target price of S$10.10 on 0.9x P/B, equivalent to 1 SD below the post-GFC historical average.

Shares of SIA are down 10 cents at S$10.22.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #35 on: October 20, 2016, 03:21:15 PM »
Oil prices fall after strong rally, but sentiment remains confident ~ 20 Oct 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN12K04M
U.S. WTI crude oil futures were trading at $51.26 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down 34 cents from their last close.

With big debt deal and rising oil prices, market message is don't 'bet against the Saudis' ~ 20 Oct 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/with-debt-deal-and-rising-oil-prices-market-message-is-dont-bet-against-the-saudis.html

The world’s biggest oil kingdom reverses course ~ 20 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/the-world-s-biggest-oil-kingdom-reverses-course
In an effort to get prices off the mat, Saudi Arabia looks to pull back on the amount of crude it pumps.



Is crude oil capped? ~ 30 Sep 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/is-crude-oil-capped-200156439


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2016, 08:50:25 AM »
Singapore Inc faces $12 billion debt scramble ~ 31 Oct 2016
http://in.reuters.com/article/singapore-economy-debt-idINKBN12V06D
Banks, under pressure to increase provisions for bad loans, are pulling back from indebted sectors like real estate, commodities and oil and gas, which dominate Singapore's outstanding S$53 billion ($38 billion) of local currency corporate bonds.



There's worse to come for Singapore's rigbuilders

By Melissa Tan
31 Oct 2016

The world's two largest rigbuilders' third-quarter earnings may have been enough of a fright for investors already - but analysts have warned that the fourth quarter could be even gloomier for Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine.

Investors should still brace themselves for more potential provisions and impairments, and should expect contract wins to be few and far between for the next few years, analysts said, though they added that stock valuations already appear to be near their troughs, and earnings may also be close to the bottom by this juncture.

They also noted that since Keppel has a more diversified revenue stream than SembMarine, the conglomerate's earnings are likely to be more resilient amid the prolonged downturn than its smaller rival's.

Both Keppel and SembMarine have announced job cuts numbering in the thousands and weaker third-quarter results amid an industry-wide downturn due to a slump in crude oil prices. For the three months ended September, Keppel remained profitable overall but SembMarine plunged into the red.

Keppel earlier this month posted a 38 per cent drop in third-quarter net profit to S$225 million from a year ago and said that its rigbuilding arm Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) has in the three months to September cut its direct workforce by about 3,080, bringing layoffs over the first nine months of the year to nearly 8,000 or just over a quarter of its workforce. Of the 3,080 axed, 660 were in Singapore. Keppel also made an impairment of fixed assets of S$34.5 million for the period.

As for SembMarine, it last week booked a S$21.8 million net loss for the quarter, compared with a S$32.1 million profit a year ago, and said it had axed 8,000 jobs "throughout 2015 till to date". A spokesman declined to disclose how many of those 8,000 jobs were cut in the three months to September. The group also made a provision for its stake in Cosco Corp but said its provisions in FY15 for rig orders were still adequate.

Analysts said the industry outlook remains tough as rig orders have dried up and the two rigbuilders might still need to make further provisions, but added it would be difficult to quantify those potential provisions.

"We are still wary of potential impairment for contagious jackup rigs, but management sounded confident that provisions made in 2015 are adequate," CIMB analyst Lim Siew Khee wrote in an Oct 25 note.

But she told The Business Times in an email that the potential provisions for each company would depend on "what their own assumptions would be". "For Keppel, if they mothball more yards, there might be some provisions. For SembMarine, if (their) Brazilian yard does not turn around or execute any work, then impairment risk is there."

KGI Fraser analyst Joel Ng also said it was hard to calculate how much more provisions the two might make, "due to the lack of market transactions that can help indicate the values of the assets sitting on the company's balance sheets".

"Furthermore, it really depends on the company's auditors on how they work with the companies to value the assets based on their internal estimates (usually some form of discounted cash flow valuation given the lack of market values)."

Analysts added that orders may start flowing back only after the next one or two years at least.

"We believe companies are waiting for oil prices to have a sustained recovery above US$55 per barrel (bbl) or US$60/bbl before committing more capex on their exploration programmes," Mr Ng said. "But it may still take one to two years for the orders to come through to the rigbuilders given the oversupply of rigs and offshore vessels in the market."

Utilisation rates for jackup rigs, semi-submersible rigs and drillships have dropped to 50 per cent in October 2016 from 90-100 per cent utilisation in 2013, he noted.

Said Mr Ng: "If oil prices can have a sustained recovery above US$60/bbl, then we may expect that the worst is over and see a gradual recovery in the industry. But in the short term, we may expect to see declining earnings and more job cuts going into 2017."

UOB Kay Hian analyst Foo Zhiwei said low contract wins would "continue to be the case for the next few years at least because of shale . . . Future offshore development is taking a back seat for a while.

"The oil majors have in their Q1 and Q2 results continually emphasised how they will stick to short-cycle projects and unconventional sources for future production," Mr Foo noted.

"Offshore and deepwater projects tend to be mid to long-cycle projects. And shale isn't just the United States . . . you see it popping up in the United Kingdom; China is exploring ways to exploit it; Chevron has shale operations in Argentina. It would seem with this much abundance of lower-cost, faster-cycle land resources, the world's need for offshore development is diminished for the next few years."



Analysts said both Keppel and SembMarine may need to continue cutting jobs as well but that, on the bright side, the earnings slide may be close to bottoming out. They added that, of the two, Keppel appears to have better prospects.

Mr Foo pointed out that Singapore has no national oil company nor oil assets to "help our local yards with orders", and that other national oil companies would likely "rather support their homegrown companies than give the job abroad, if they can".

"So, unfortunately for both yards, they will have to readjust to this new order. And will Q4 and onwards be worse? I think very much so for both, though I must say we are near the bottom for earnings now."

Mr Ng also thinks Keppel and SembMarine are "already trading at trough valuations, and downside may be limited from here onwards".

"We believe that Keppel has better prospects amid the downturn compared to Sembcorp Marine due to its more diversified revenue base," he said. "Keppel's property business contributed 70 per cent of its profit in its latest results and it still managed to generate respectable profit margins while Sembcorp Marine reported losses in its latest results. In addition, Keppel Corp has a relatively better profile of customers in terms of their financial strength."

NRA Capital research head Liu Jinshu also said he "would favour Keppel over SembMarine", adding that "larger companies such as Keppel may contain value owing to their stronger balance sheets".

Conversely, he added, "the smaller companies may require more research before one buys in".

Keppel shares have dropped 18.74 per cent and SembMarine shares have fallen 26.86 per cent year-to-date. Keppel rose a cent to S$5.29 last Friday while SembMarine shed a cent to finish at S$1.28.

悲催了!新加坡经济断崖式下跌!李显龙慌了 ~ 17 Oct 2016
http://news.hexun.com/2016-10-17/186454317.html

The key resistance levels for USD/SGD could be found near 1.411 and 1.443 respectively.



S&P sees Singapore bond market vulnerabilities after defaults ~ 16 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-16/s-p-sees-singapore-bond-market-vulnerabilities-after-defaults
S&P estimated that listed entities in Singapore have about S$60 billion ($44 billion) in bonds outstanding as of Sept. 15. Excluding all bonds issued by government-related entities, the amount is about S$53 billion, according to the ratings company. Real estate firms account for a little over half of the total, S&P said.
  • Oil services sector most vulnerable, S&P says in report
  • Agriculture, commodities, real estate firms face stresses: S&P
Singapore lawyers warn of 1998-like pain as debt defaults spread ~ 23 Feb 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/singapore-lawyers-warn-of-1998-like-pain-as-debt-defaults-spread



Looking beyond backyard doesn't pay for Singapore rig builders ~ 18 Jan 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/looking-beyond-backyard-doesn-t-pay-for-singapore-rig-builders


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #37 on: January 10, 2017, 06:43:09 AM »
Oil closed @ US$51.96 on concerns over rising U.S. output, Iraqi exports ~ 9 Jan 2017
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/update-7oil-down-on-concerns-over-rising-us-output-iraqi-exports-20170109-00726



The Trump oil trade and why oil might soon reach $100 again ~ 9 Jan 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trump-oil-trade-and-why-oil-might-soon-reach-100-again-2017-01-09

List of countries (top 10) by oil consumption ~ 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption
  • United States 19,396,000 bbl/day
  • China 11,968,000 bbl/day
  • India 4,159,000 bbl/day
  • Japan 4,150,000 bbl/day
  • Saudi Arabia 3,895,000 bbl/day
  • Brazil 3,157,000 bbl/day
  • Russia 3,113,000 bbl/day
  • South Korea ,575,000 bbl/day
  • Germany 2,338,000 bbl/day
  • Canada 2,322,000 bbl/day
   

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2017, 01:52:33 PM »
Crude futures bulls face margin calls ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/crude-futures-bulls-face-margin-calls/articleshow/57572384.cms

Why the U.S. is swimming in oil ~ 10 Mar 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-03-09/why-the-u-s-is-swimming-in-oil

How much further can oil prices fall? ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Much-Further-Can-Oil-Prices-Fall.html





US crude settles at $48.49, tumbles about 9% this week on glut concern ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/us-oil-rises-after-dropping-below-50-for-first-time-since-dec.html



A new “shale smackdown” crushes crude ~ 10 Mar 2017
https://dailyreckoning.com/new-shale-smackdown-crushes-crude/
OPEC vs. American shale is turning into a race to the bottom for the price of oil. Any shot at a sustained oil rally is now on hold indefinitely…



US rig count increases 12 this week to 768; Louisiana up 5 ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/966240e6dc094d4da9f3a76dea590ead/us-rig-count-increases-12-week-768-louisiana-5



Oil drops below $50 for first time since December on supply glut ~ 10 Mar 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-08/oil-holds-losses-near-50-as-u-s-stockpiles-expand-to-record
  • Crude inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels last week: EIA
  • WTI options post second-highest volume ever, volatility rises


Hedge funds trimmed bullish bets before US crude fell below $50 ~ 10 Mar 2017
https://www.ft.com/content/a1ca719a-0454-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12
Funds reduced their net long in WTI  crude 11m barrels to 357m barrels in the week to Tuesday, the 2nd straight decline from an all-time high in late February. WTI crude, the US marker, fell 9.1% on the week to settle at $48.49 a barrel, its worst weekly loss since early November. “If oil prices continue to slide, then the risk increases that the weaker OPEC nations [Iraq, Venezuela, Angola] start to export more oil to reduce diminishing revenues.”

The crush in crude ~ 9 Mar 2017
https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-crush-in-crude-200178340
So how low can Crude oil go? Recent activity shows that the 200 day SMA has been an area of support. That sits at just under $49, a spot that Crude is reaching in the pre-market hours. A stall here could reset the price within the Bollinger Bands® and prepare it for another leg lower. Below that the next support level does not appear until about $45.



Money managers are long $20 billion of oil and price has gone nowhere ~ 6 Mar 2017
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4052233-money-managers-long-20-billion-oil-price-gone-nowhere
Volatility in the oil market is at multi-year lows. Throughout this period of calm, money managers have maintained their record long positioning and are betting on the commodity to rise in value. Money managers are currently long 435,475 contracts and short 48,768 contracts. Since each contract is for 1000 barrels of oil, this net position of 386,707 contracts has a value of $20,623,084,310 at the current front month price of $53.33.



Hedge funds change net long positions in WTI crude oil ~ 6 Mar 2017
http://marketrealist.com/2017/03/hedge-funds-change-net-long-positions-wti-crude-oil/
On March 3, 2017 hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US WTI crude oil futures and options contracts by 26,930 contracts to 386,707 contracts in the week ending February 28, 2017 — compared to the previous week. Hedge funds’ net long positions hit 413,637 contracts in the week ending February 21, 2017 — the highest level ever. Hedge funds reduced their net long positions due to:
  • record US crude oil inventories
  • rise in US crude oil production
  • rise in US crude oil rigs
  • President Trump’s energy policy
  • expectation of strong dollar

Hedge funds’ net long positions in WTI reached a new high ~ 1 Mar 2017
http://marketrealist.com/2017/03/hedge-funds-net-long-positions-wti-reach-new-high/
Hedge funds’ net long positions rose by 23,299 contracts to 413,637 contracts in the week ending on February 21, 2017 — compared to the previous week. Crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (BNO) prices rose 0.2% — compared to the previous week..


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #39 on: March 11, 2017, 02:56:20 PM »
Saudi Arabian budget deficit set to narrow in 2017 on higher oil prices ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabian-Budget-Deficit-Set-to-Narrow-in-2017-on-Higher-Oil-Prices.html

Expanding Malaysia-Saudi ties: Benefits and risks for Malaysia – Analysis ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://www.eurasiareview.com/10032017-expanding-malaysia-saudi-ties-benefits-and-risks-for-malaysia-analysis/

In risky gambit, Najib scores points with Saudi King’s visit ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/commentary/risky-gambit-najib-scores-points-saudi-kings-visit
  • One of the major hallmarks of King Salman’s visit was the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement between Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and Malaysia’s Petronas, a state-owned petroleum company.
  • The agreement states that Aramco will own 50% of Petronas’ Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (Rapid) project in Pengerang, Johor.
  • The RM 31 billion deal will convert the Johor town into a regional hub for oil and gas refinery, while Saudi Arabia will be the leading supplier of crude feedstock. Aramco will supply 70% of crude oil for Rapid, while Petronas will provide the natural gas, energy and other facilities.
  • Besides the Rapid deal, both countries signed seven memorandums of understanding worth RM9.74 billion to boost trade and investment ties. These will cover areas such as health care, construction, education and the halal industry. Several agreements related to security and defence were also discussed, which include the building of the King Salman Centre for International Peace in Malaysia, to help combat terrorism.
Malaysia’s future role in Saudi Arabia’s islamic military alliance ~ 10 Mar 2017
https://lobelog.com/malaysias-future-role-in-saudi-arabias-islamic-military-alliance/



Could Saudi Arabia cancel Aramco’s IPO? ~ 10 Mar 2017
http://www.investopedia.com/news/could-saudi-arabia-cancel-aramcos-ipo-xom/



Saudi Arabia plans domestic Sukuk to help boost market ~ 8 Mar 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-08/saudi-arabia-said-to-plan-domestic-sukuk-to-help-boost-market
Saudi Arabia is forecast to post a budget deficit of 198 billion riyals ($53 billion) this year, equal to about 7.7% of economic output. The kingdom raised $17.5 billion from a debut sale of international bonds in October, a record for an emerging market nation, and also completed a syndicated loan in dollars as well as several bond sales to domestic institutions.

The real reasons for the Saudi King’s Asian visit ~ 7 Mar 2017
http://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/real-reasons-saudi-king-salman-asian-visit/
  • The Saudi King's tour has a very serious purpose.
  • The nation needs friends in Asia that are best acquired by finding common commercial and political interests rather than in promoting an austere desert interpretation of religion among the paddy fields and coconut palms of Muslim Southeast Asia.
  • The visit has also shown up the contrasts between an Indonesia which, despite occasional upsurges in intolerance, seems comfortable in its pluralistic skin and a Malaysia whose leader is desperate to find allies as he seeks to ward off scandal and maintain his hold on its ruling party.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2017, 07:40:00 AM »
Ezra files for U.S. bankruptcy as marine debt crunch spreads ~ 19 Mar 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/ezra-files-for-u-s-bankruptcy-amid-hostile-creditors-faceoff
DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s loan exposure to Ezra and related companies is estimated at S$637 million, according to a CIMB report dated Feb. 2. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. has S$300 million and United Overseas Bank Ltd. has S$166 million, assuming the debt of each company in the Ezra group is equally split among its principal bankers.
  • Company joins Swiber, Swissco in fending off hostile creditors
  • Decline in oil prices led to project delays, amassed debt


Nam Cheong's auditors cast doubt on company's ability to continue as going concern

17 Mar 2017

SINGAPORE: The independent auditors of Nam Cheong have issued a report indicating the existence of a material uncertainty exists that may cast doubt on company's ability to continue as going concern.

In a filing on Friday night, Nam Cheong announced BDO LLP, the independent auditors of offshore support vessels builder, have included an emphasis of matter with respect to material uncertainty related to going concern in their report related to the FY16 financial statements.

The auditors pointed out that for the financial year ended Dec 31 2016, the group posted a significant decrease in revenue and incurred a net loss of RM42.8 million ($13.5 million).

And as at Dec 31 2016, the group's loans and borrowings that were classified as current amounted to RM948.7 million of which RM278.6 million pertained to medium term notes that are due for repayment on August 28 2017.

These amounts exceeded the group's cash and cash equivalents of RM162.6 million as at Dec 31 2016.

"These events or conditions, along with other matters as set forth in the note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern," warned BDO.

Nam Cheong has bit hit hard by the fall in the price of oil from over US$100 per barrel in 2014 to around US$50 today.

The company also has had trouble generating cash flow from its business.

In the five years from 2011 to 2015, Nam Cheong had generated positive operating cash flow in only three years.

Moreover, the company's total operating cash flow in that five-year block had been a negative RM503 million.

Shares of Nam Cheong closed at 5 cents on Friday before the announcement.

Wrestling with life support in Singapore ~ 5 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-06/wrestling-with-corporate-life-support-in-singapore
While the legal system is well-versed in the challenges of debt defaults, creditors are new to the game. In their enthusiasm to get a result, bondholders and banks are pushing companies into liquidation, the worst outcome for all stakeholders.

Ezra liquidation to hit DBS the hardest

3 Feb 2017

The bank's exposure to the beleaguered group is around $637m.

As Ezra is foreseen to face liquidation, CIMB expects DBS to be hit the hardest, as the bank's exposure to the group is estimated to be $637m.

Ezra has called for a trading halt at the start of the month pending the release of an announcement. CIMB said this could be related to the results of its discussions with lenders and other stakeholders regarding its financial position, which could result in the group, its JV or subsidiaries’ liquidation in the worst case scenario.

"As of 31 Aug 2016, the group had US$989m of term loans and bills payable to banks, including US$568m from 75.46%-owned EMAS Offshore Limited and US$150m from 60.9%-owned Triyards Holdings Limited," CIMB explained.

The firm pointed out that DBS has the largest exposure to the Ezra group of companies at $637m, followed by OCBC at $300m and UOB at $166m. DBS's exposure is due to its lending to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea, given that it was the co-lead arranger for the loan facility for EMAS Chiyoda’s main vessel, the Lewek Constellation.

"Should the entire Ezra group go into liquidation, the banks will have to recognise their exposures as NPLs and make adequate provisions for the unrecoverable amounts," CIMB stated.

It furthered, "Based on 40-80% write-down in book value of fixed assets across the group, we estimate DBS will have to make specific provisions (SPs) of 8-16bp, OCBC: 9-12bp and UOB: 6-7bp. This assumes no SPs have been taken yet and will impact DBS’s FY17F net profit by 6-12%, OCBC: 5-8%, and UOB: 4-5%."

Investors beware – All may not be well at Nam Cheong Ltd

By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq
January 5, 2016

Offshore support vessels builder Nam Cheong Ltd (SGX: N4E) seems to have been hit hard by the sharp decline in the price of oil over the past year.

In the first nine months of 2015, Nam Cheong saw its revenue and profit record year-on-year falls of 50% and 81% to RM708 million and RM50 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the company’s operating cash flow for the same period also fell sharply from a negative RM20 million a year ago to a negative RM591 million.

Additionally, Nam Cheong’s accounts receivables and inventories had both grown. The former had jumped by 60% since the end of 2014 to RM780 million as at 30 September 2015 while the latter had increased by 57% to RM1.6 billion over the same timeframe. A situation of declining sales coupled with growing accounts receivables and inventories can be a yellow flag for more potential problems ahead.

That’s not all. Nam Cheong ended the third-quarter of 2015 with more than RM1.9 billion in debt. As the table below illustrates, the company’s net-debt (total borrowings minus total cash) to equity ratio has shot up from just 41.5% at the end of 2014 to 95.5% in the latest quarter.



All these financial troubles, likely due to tumbling oil prices, have pushed Nam Cheong to a situation where it is close to missing a financial covenant set by some of its creditors in that its interest coverage ratio shall not at any time be less than 3:1 (covenants are terms set by creditors that borrowers have to fulfill).

With its deteriorating financials over the past twelve months, Nam Cheong had launched a consent solicitation exercise this morning to seek consent from some of its bondholders to amend the aforementioned financial covenant. The company also hopes to get approval from the same set of bondholders to waive any non-compliance, or potential non-compliance, of the covenant for the test period ended 31 December 2015.

Although the solicitation exercise might not signify that Nam Cheong is facing any bankruptcy risk, it does show that the company is currently caught in a situation of having high debt but falling revenue which it did not anticipate previously. And for me, this says a lot about the risk management ability (or perhaps, lack thereof) of Nam Cheong’s management team.

There are other pressing issues at hand for Nam Cheong. If oil prices do not recover soon, the company may likely continue to produce negative free cash flow from its business. Moreever, even if the ongoing consent solicitation exercise is successful, Nam Cheong might still face serious refinancing risks going forward given that it has S$365 million worth of bonds coming due by 2019. These are things that both current and prospective investors in the shares and bonds of Nam Cheong may want to keep in mind.

Building billions with $3.40 ~ 11 Oct 2015
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/10/11/building-billions-with-340-sarawaks-tycoon-datuk-tiong-su-kouk-learned-from-a-young-age-that-wealth/
Sarawak’s tycoon Datuk Tiong Su Kouk ventured into boat-building some 40 years ago under the name Nam Cheong. Today, this Singapore-listed company is a leading global marine player and Malaysia’s largest builder of offshore support vessels (OSV).


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2017, 02:28:43 PM »
Oil spikes as U.S. strike against Syria roils global markets ~ 7 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/oil-set-for-weekly-gain-as-opec-cuts-offset-rising-u-s-supply
  • Gains may be temporary if military action contained: Nomura
  • U.S. missile launches follow Syrian gas attack on civilians


Saudi Arabia Vs. Russia: The next oil price war ~ 6 Apr 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-Vs-Russia-The-Next-Oil-Price-War.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #42 on: April 11, 2017, 06:53:37 AM »
Crude oil futures closed @ $53.08 (+0.84, +1.61%) after Libya's largest oilfield shuts down ~ 11 Apr 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/09/oil-prices-firm-on-strong-demand-political-uncertainty-in-syria.html



Moody's says oil prices to range US$40 to US$60 until 2018 ~ 10 Apr 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/10/moodys-says-oil-prices-to-range-us$40-to-us$60-until-2018/



Summer driving expectations get oil investors excited again ~ 9 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-04-09/summer-driving-expectations-get-oil-investors-excited-again


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #43 on: April 17, 2017, 08:18:11 AM »
Are bullish crude oil prices here to stay? ~ 17 Apr 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/business/are-bullish-crude-oil-prices-here-stay

Crude prices point weaker in Asia with China GDP, Korea tension in focus ~ 16 Apr 2017
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-prices-point-weaker-in-asia-with-china-gdp,-korea-tension-in-focus-474554

原油原油连2周看空 ~ 16 Apr 2017
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1634146/%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E8%BF%9E2%E5%91%A8%E7%9C%8B%E7%A9%BA

供应过剩难解‧油价回升昙花一现 ~ 14 Apr 2017
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1633715/%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94%E8%BF%87%E5%89%A9%E9%9A%BE%E8%A7%A3%E2%80%A7%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E5%9B%9E%E5%8D%87%E6%98%99%E8%8A%B1%E4%B8%80%E7%8E%B0


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #44 on: April 17, 2017, 05:21:25 PM »
Oil falls after failed North Korean missile test ~ 17 Apr 2017
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/04/17/oil-falls-after-failed-north-korean-missile-test.html

U.S. oil rig count hits 2 year high ~ 13 Apr 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Hits-2-Year-High.html
Drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week to April 13, bringing the count up to 683, highest in 2 years.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #45 on: April 23, 2017, 08:26:05 AM »
Oil prices fall amid fears of a new downtrend ~ 21 Apr 2017
Light, sweet crude for June delivery settled down $1.09, or 2.1%, at $49.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.03, or 1.9%, to $51.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both had their lowest settlement since the last week of March.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2017, 08:31:01 AM »
US crude plunges 4.8% to $45.52, posting worst close in more than 5 months ~ 4 May 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/03/oil-eases-near-weakest-since-late-march-on-small-u-s-stocks-decline.html

ConocoPhillips to lay off 300 people, part of possible trend as oil patch consolidates ~ 4 May 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/conocophillips-layoffs-calgary-300-may-2017-1.4098957



Booming again: U.S. poised for record oil output in 2018 ~ 8 Mar 2017
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/record-us-oil-production-eia/?iid=EL
Following a painful war with OPEC, U.S. oil output is poised to rebound this year, thanks to healthier prices and a strengthened business model. That could set the stage for America to set a record-breaking 2018, taking out the all-time oil production high set in 1970, according to new forecasts published this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #47 on: May 07, 2017, 08:40:04 AM »
Hedge funds cut bullish U.S. crude bets for second straight week ~ 5 May 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cftc-oil-idUSKBN18126Q

Hedge fund Andurand Capital liquidates oil long positions ~ 5 May 2017
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-price-andurand-idUKL8N1I748R

Oil's OPEC-driven gain wiped out as shale boom offsets cuts ~ 5 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/oil-resumes-decline-as-u-s-crude-production-expands-11th-week
  • American output has longest run of gains in more than 4 years
  • Commodities tumble amid concern Chinese consumption to weaken


Five charts that explain crude oil's sudden nosedive toward $45 ~ 5 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/five-charts-that-explain-crude-oil-s-sudden-nosedive-toward-45
  • Rout overnight amid heavy trading in normally quiet period
  • Traders hold record WTI contracts, speculation they’re bearish










Oil's wild intraday swing explained by hedge fund liquidation ~ 5 May 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4069918-oils-wild-intraday-swing-explained-hedge-fund-liquidation

Welcome to the liquidation edition of Oil Markets Daily!

On Tuesday, we wrote that the primary reason oil prices were selling off was due to traders forcing stop losses. The selling didn't stop on Tuesday and continued into the early morning on Friday, when traders noticed small size blocks getting rapidly sold, forcing WTI below $44/bbl.




Hedge funds make record bet on rising oil prices ~ 7 Feb 2017
https://www.ft.com/content/a74ca966-ec77-11e6-ba01-119a44939bb6
Investors back Opec’s supply cuts and seek protection against risk of inflation. Data from regulators and exchanges showed speculators have built long positions equivalent to almost 1bn barrels of crude across the major contracts, while short positions amount to just 111m barrels.

Hedge funds pile into bullish bets on U.S. crude by most on record ~ 26 Aug 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-cftc-idUSKCN1112AJ

Oil bear market attracts record bets on further price slide ~ 9 Aug 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-07/oil-bear-market-attracts-record-bets-on-further-price-slide



Risks rise as hedge funds place record bet on oil ~ 4 May 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-kemp-idUSKCN0XU23V


Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #48 on: May 16, 2017, 07:52:05 AM »
Saudi Arabia, Russia favor extending oil cuts through next March ~ 15 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/saudi-arabia-and-russia-favor-extending-opec-cuts-for-9-months
  • Supply deal could be prolonged at already agreed-upon volumes
  • Al-Falih says stockpiles won’t reach desired level by end-June


Gold, crude oil rally but data mixed ~ 15 May 2017
https://www.seeitmarket.com/the-cot-report-gold-crude-oil-rally-but-data-mixed-16864/



Offline zuolun

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Re: Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’
« Reply #49 on: May 21, 2017, 12:10:21 PM »
High fives in Riyadh as Trump leaves woes behind for deals ~ 21 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-20/trump-lands-in-saudi-arabia-with-white-house-engulfed-in-crisis
  • ‘Tremendous investments’ to create ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’
  • GE, Lockheed Martin among U.S. companies to sign Saudi deals


In Saudi Arabia, president Trump finally gets treated like a king ~ 21 May 2017
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/21/in-saudi-arabia-president-trump-finally-gets-treated-like-a-king
A foolish man may be known by six things: Anger without cause, speech without profit, change without progress, inquiry without object, putting trust in a stranger, and mistaking foes for friends. He might, too, be known by a seventh thing: visiting a foreign land with a message of diplomacy, stability, and moderation while his homeland roils with controversies ignited in no small part due to his lack of all three.



What America’s new arms deal with Saudi Arabia says about the Trump administration ~ 20 May 2017
https://www.vox.com/2017/5/20/15626638/trump-saudi-arabia-arms-deal
It puts human rights aside to make a buck.

Under siege in Washington, Trump reaps Saudi arms deal, stronger ties ~ 20 May 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-gulf-arrival-idUSKCN18G06K
The arms deal, plus other investments that U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said could total up to $350 billion, was the central achievement of Trump's first day in Riyadh, first stop on a nine-day journey through the Middle East and Europe.

Saudi Arabia greets Trump with billions of dollars of deals ~ 20 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-20/aramco-to-sign-50-billion-in-deals-with-u-s-companies-today
  • Aramco agrees MoUs, joint ventures with GE, Halliburton
  • Saudi wealth fund PIF invests in Blackstone fund, Softbank


Iran: Hassan Rouhani wins landslide in huge victory for reformists ~ 20 May 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/20/iran-hassan-rouhani-set-for-landslide-in-huge-victory-for-reformists



Cash strapped Venezuela to import gasoline as crisis escalates ~ 20 May 2017
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Cash-Strapped-Venezuela-To-Import-Gasoline-As-Crisis-Escalates.html

Venezuela’s oil production on the brink of collapse ~ 17 May 2017
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Venezuelas-Oil-Production-On-The-Brink-Of-Collapse.html



Oil jumps as Saudis, Russia favor extending output deal to 2018 ~ 15 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/oil-halts-gains-as-more-u-s-rigs-counter-opec-cut-deal-report
  • Ministers agree pact should extend through the end of March
  • OPEC deal is working and inventories decreasing: Al-Falih