Other Investments > Commodities

Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’

(1/15) > >>

Venezuela authorities postpone decision on Maduro referendum ~ 3 Jun 2016

'We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency ~ 2 Jun 2016

What on earth happened in Venezuela? ~ 2 Jun 2016

Crises may strike OPEC’s weakest members this year ~ OPEC’s ‘fragile five’: Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela ~ 1 Jun 2016

US WTI oil 2nd Jun 2016 30-min chart

Oil dips but notches fourth straight monthly gain ~ 31 May 2016

U.S. oil may retest a resistance zone of $42.66-$43.84 per barrel over the next
three months, a break above which could open the way towards $57.40.

Venezuela stepping up gold selling as petrodollars dry up ~ 25 May 2016

The choice for Venezuela is stark: Either print money and fail or establish sound money (USD to the rescue?) ~ 24 May 2016

委内瑞拉通膨失控 汉堡竟卖170美元 ~ 23 May 2016

Chasing China’s new drivers risks gasoline glut for refiners ~ 2 Jun 2016

OPEC fails to reach oil production deal ~ 2 Jun 2016

How the Nigeria crisis affects energy companies ~ 1 Jun 2016

Buhari leaves traders guessing on path for Nigerian currency ~ 30 May 2016

Nigeria, Venezuela and Egypt all struggle to pay airfares ~ 28 May 2016

Nigeria currency crisis explained: What we know and don’t know ~ 26 May 2016

‘Of exchange rate mechanism, exchange rate and devaluation’  ~ 23 May 2016

Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut ~ 19 May 2016

Glencore said to store oil at sea off Singapore in contango bet

Nigeria inflation reaches record high in almost six years ~ 17 May 2016

Goldman sees oil deficit: What this means for energy players ~ 16 May 2016

Global food prices rise for third consecutive month ~ 8 May 2016

Buhari gives Nigeria central bank go-ahead on flexible Naira ~ 31 May 2016

Nigeria records first trade deficit in at least seven years ~ 31 May 2016

Will China push oil to the $30s or Venezuela send prices into orbit?

June 13, 2016

Barely a day after analysts talked excitedly about $60 oil being a distinct possibility by the end of this year, now they worry that China could send crude plummeting below the $40 level.

Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, raised the issue with CNBC's Squawk Box, pointing out that China is importing so much crude (about 787,000 barrels per day, which goes directly into storage, according to first quarter 2016 data) "it's absolutely insane: they're importing about a million barrels a day more than they are actually consuming."

Smith worries that the 135 million barrels stockpiled to date means China will  hit its maximum capacity of 155 million barrels within a month, at which point imports "will drop off a cliff."

With Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq ramping up production, these factors combined may force crude to plummet to $40 per barrel or even into the $30s, Smith warned.

If that happened, Ship & Bunker data suggests IFO380 prices in the primary ports would slip back under the $200 per metric tonne (pmt) mark, compared to the $252 pmt level they were at last Friday.

Still, there seems to be too many outside factors at play for anyone to convincingly predict a return of ultra-low prices.

Nigeria, whose output has been credited as significant enough to rebalance the global market single-handedly, is said to be facing an almost insurmountable challenge in ridding itself of more attacks from the militant group Niger Delta Avengers, which has disrupted oil production in that country – and contributed to the spectacular gains in prices of late.

Additionally, civil unrest prompted by a worsening economy in Venezuela is taking an increasingly ugly turn, with reports of mass looting, the killing of animals for food, and political figures attacked in the street while police look on.

Speculation is rampant that Venezuela's economy could soon collapse completely, which would cause massive oil supply disruptions – and boost prices even further.

However, Matt Smith is not alone in his analysis: John Kilduff of Again Capital told CNBC last week that oil prices will likely decline after the peak summer demand is over, possibly to $30, and he was backed by Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Analytics, who cited global oversupply as the persistent risk to prices, along with a possible U.S. interest rate hike that would strengthen the dollar and hurt crude prices.

--- Quote from: zuolun on June 16, 2016, 11:40:57 AM ---Venezuela in crisis: 400 arrested for looting ~ 16 Jun 2016

Venezuela in talks with China for grace period in oil-for-loans deal ~ 15 Jun 2016

4th person dies as a result of food riots rocking Venezuela ~ 15 Jun 2016

Looting and unrest continue roiling Venezuela ~ 15 Jun 2016

委内瑞拉多家华人商铺被抢 数万华人离开 ~ 15 Jun 2016

--- End quote ---

Nigeria allows naira to float against US dollar ~ 16 Jun 2016

Nigeria has caved and will finally float its troubled currency ~ 15 Jun 2016

Nigeria’s Central Bank finally throws in towel on naira peg ~ 15 Jun 2016

Oil's biggest wild card: Chaos in Nigeria ~ 14 Jun 2016

Crises may strike OPEC’s weakest members this year ~ 1 Jun 2016

Petro-states are going down and taking the world economy with them ~ 31 May 2016


[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

Go to full version