Oil, OPEC and the ‘fragile five’

[zuolun]

AirAsia X Q1 results hit by higher fuel expenses ~ 24 May 2017
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/05/24/airasia-x-q1-results-hit-higher-fuel-expenses
AirAsia X Bhd continued to register a sharp fall in its net profit with a slump of 94.2% to RM10.34 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2017 against RM179.49 million in the same quarter a year ago, dragged down by higher fuel expenses.

AAX ~ Bearish Island Reversal

AAX closed with a hammer @ RM0.405 (-0.005, -1.2%) with 47.6m shares done on 29 May 2017.

Immediate support @ RM0.39, immediate resistance @ RM0.41.



Bearish Island Reversal



AAX (weekly) ~ Bullish Double Bottom Reversal



Double & Triple Bottoms & Tops

[zuolun]

RwandAir launches its first direct flight to Europe ~ 26 May 2017
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/26/c_136318294.htm

Cheap lesson for Cathay Pacific ~ 19 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-19/singapore-air-s-cheap-lesson-for-cathay-pacific





Missed connection: The super-connector airlines face a world of troubles ~ 13 May 2017
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21721956-aviations-most-successful-business-model-under-strain-super-connector-airlines-face
Aviation’s most successful business model is under strain.

[zuolun]

Oil posts biggest weekly loss in a month as rebalancing drags ~ 4 Jun 2017
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/06/02/oil-set-for-biggest-weekly-loss-in-a-month-as-u-s-output-rises
WTI oil closed @ US$47.66 (-0.70,-1.45%) on 2 Jun 2017.   

[DR KIM]

Oil posts biggest weekly loss in a month as rebalancing drags ~ 4 Jun 2017
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/06/02/oil-set-for-biggest-weekly-loss-in-a-month-as-u-s-output-rises
WTI oil closed @ US$47.66 (-0.70,-1.45%) on 2 Jun 2017.   

Arggghhhhhhhhhh.......

[zuolun]

EIA ups global oil production forecast ~ 4 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/EIA-Ups-Global-Oil-Production-Forecast.html

Aramco aims to take over the offshore rig market ~ 4 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Aramco-Aims-To-Take-Over-The-Offshore-Rig-Market.html

Weekly oil markets recap - Despair enters the mind of energy investors ~ 4 Jun 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078578-weekly-oil-markets-recap-despair-enters-mind-energy-investors

• WTI finished the week lower by 4.30%.
• Energy stocks are the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 down 13.1% for the year.
• Narrative over fundamentals, and that's what we are seeing play out with the market today.
• If history is any guide, energy bulls should look at how the market had it so wrong in 2014 and why the narrative doesn't drive future performances. Fundamentals do.

WTI oil closed @ US$47.66 on 2 Jun 2017.

[zuolun]

Oil prices collapse as US shale hits back ~ 7 Jun 2017
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/07/oil-prices-collapse-us-shale-hits-back/
WTI oil closed @ US$45.72 (-2.47, -5.13%) on 7 Jun 2017.



Turkish parliament approves troop deployment in Qatar ~ 7 Jun 2017
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/turkey-fast-track-troops-deployment-qatar-170607151127104.html



Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain cut ties to Qatar ~ 5 Jun 2017
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/saudi-arabia-uae-egypt-bahrain-cut-ties-qatar-170605031700062.html

[DR KIM]

in jeopardy  to  USD 40 

[zuolun]

Gold prices break 6-year-long downtrend on safe haven and 50% surge in Chinese demand ~ 7 Jun 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1496843970.php
Gold jumped more than 1% yesterday on concerns of conflict in the Middle East after the Saudi coalitions aggressive move against gas rich Qatar and Iran. Today there have been terrorist attacks in the Iranian parliament and at least seven people have been killed.

Iran: Trump's reaction to deadly attacks is 'repugnant' ~ 8 Jun 2017
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/iran-trump-reaction-deadly-attacks-repugnant-170608061727961.html
Foreign minister Javad Zarif rejects statement by US president that Iran fell victim 'to the evil they promote'.

Iran's revolutionary guards blame Saudis for Tehran attacks ~ 8 Jun 2017
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/07/middleeast/iran-parliament-shooting/index.html

Islamic State claims new reach into Iran with twin attacks in Tehran ~ 7 Jun 2017
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rare-double-attacks-hits-irans-capital/2017/06/07/d9f101c2-4b50-11e7-9669-250d0b15f83b_story.html



How the Iran terror attacks unfolded at two sites ~ 7 Jun 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-attacks.html
The attacks on Tehran's parliament complex and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini killed 13 people and wounded more than 40.



JP Morgan slashes its 2018 oil price forecast by $11 ~ 7 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/JP-Morgan-Slashes-Its-2018-Oil-Price-Forecast-By-11.html
JP Morgan slashed its 2018 WTI forecast by US$11—from US$53.50 to US$42. The price projection for Brent was also axed, by US$10, from US$55.50 to US$45.

[zuolun]

Something has to give as the Ruble strays further away from oil ~ 10 Jun 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/something-has-to-give-as-ruble-strays-further-away-from-oil
The ruble’s disconnect with oil prices is growing deeper by the day. This week the Russian currency slid just 0.6%, even as Brent crude plunged 3.4% to $48.03 a barrel. The mismatch has reduced the amount the government collects in rubles from each barrel of oil to the lowest since April 2016.

• Brent in rubles drops to lowest level since April 2016
• Analysts warn currency is becoming detached from fundamentals

[zuolun]

Libya’s increased oil production thwarts OPEC’s reduction plans ~ 20 Jun 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/energy-environment/oil-price-opec-libya.html
WTI oil closed at US$43.23 (-0.97, -2.24%).

Bank of America: Expect $30 oil ~ 20 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Bank-Of-America-Expect-30-Oil.html

Analyst: Expect $30 oil in 2018 unless OPEC deepens cuts ~ 19 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analyst-Expect-30-Oil-In-2018-Unless-OPEC-Deepens-Cuts.html

Cuba scrambles as Venezuela’s oil industry collapses ~ 14 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Cuba-Scrambles-As-Venezuelas-Oil-Industry-Collapses.html

Oil prices plunge after API reports surprise build in crude inventories ~ 13 Jun 2017
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Plunge-After-API-Reports-Surprise-Build-In-Crude-Inventories.html

[zuolun]

Dead cat bounce is a strong SELL signal; RUN-ROAD (short) and BUY-BACK (cover-short) at lower prices.

空頭形態-迴光返照 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cWAwP5N_ZI

Crude oil forecast for the week of June 26, 2017, Technical Analysis ~ 25 Jun 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/crude-oil-forecast-week-june-26-2017-technical-analysis-416577

WTI crude oil support @ US$40, resistance @ US$45



Hedge funds turn from Opec friend to adversary in oil market ~ 24 Jun 2017
https://www.ft.com/content/c24b150c-57fe-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
Traders have built up short positions and may yet force cartel to make bigger cuts.

[zuolun]

Oil slides as OPEC exports rise, prices end eight days of gains ~ 5 Jul 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN19Q05V

Oil slides as Russia speaks out against deeper output cuts ~ 5 Jul 2017
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Slides-As-Russia-Speaks-Out-Against-Deeper-Output-Cuts.html
In other words, a deeper cut might pressure prices further instead of supporting them.

API reports a larger than expected crude draw ~ 5 Jul 2017
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/API-Reports-A-Larger-Than-Expected-Crude-Draw.html

[zuolun]

OPEC has lost all control ~ 10 Jul 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Lg3xz9xAsM

Oil Technical Analysis for July 10 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/crude-oil-price-forecast-july-10-2017-technical-analysis-419676



The other culprits of the oil price crash ~ 9 Jul 2017
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/other-culprits-oil-price-crash-230000013.html
Costs for operational plants are lower, with estimates quoted by the FT is $22 per barrel for mining projects and as low as $11 a barrel for in situ plants. In addition, it could be that many of these new investments have hedged their forward sales at higher prices.

Are things about to get worse for oilfield services stocks? ~ 7 Jul 2017
http://www.barrons.com/articles/are-things-about-to-get-worse-for-oilfield-services-stocks-1499435925
Wells Fargo downgraded a trio of stocks, arguing that there could be "prolonged stagnation" for oil prices ahead.

Where are oil prices heading? The short answer is nowhere ~ 7 Jul 2017
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/joaquin-benitez/where-are-oil-prices-heading-the-short-answer-is-nowhere_a_23019249/
In reality, it is Russia and not Saudi Arabia who are the top oil producer and the USA is a not-too-distant third as a top oil-producing country of 2016. The fundamental issue affecting global oil prices is oversupply. Currently there is an oversupply of about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, and unless this problem is corrected, oil prices are going nowhere.

A new reality for oil prices ~ 7 Jul 2017
http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/energy/new-reality-oil-prices/
The breakeven oil price varies from area to area but is now generally put at about $40–45 a barrel, so they can still compete at current prices.

Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as world's top crude oil producer ~ 21 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/russia-overtakes-saudi-arabia-as-world-s-largest-crude-producer

• Saudis lose No. 1 spot for 1st time since March: official data
• U.S. ranked No. 3 with output of 8.8 million barrels a day

US overtakes Saudi Arabia as world's largest oil producer ~ 11 Jun 2015
https://www.voanews.com/a/united-states-world-largest-oil-producer/2818797.html

How oil's dramatic plunge has changed the energy equation ~ 18 Feb 2015
http://fortune.com/2015/02/18/oils-new-math/

[zuolun]

Venezuela on the brink of all out collapse ~ 31 Jul 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3m8GGseHss

Venezuela on the brink -- An opportunity for oil investors? ~ 31 Jul 2017
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/07/31/venezuela-on-the-brink-an-opportunity-for-oil-investors/

[zuolun]

Crude Oil Prices - Weekly Outlook: October 9 - 13 ~ 8 Oct 2017
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-prices--weekly-outlook-october-9--13-538372
Oil prices plunged on Friday, snapping a multi-week bull run amid renewed oversupply concerns, with investor attention shifting to a potential disruption to crude production and refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nate bears down on the region.

WTI crude oil closed @ $49.29 (-1.50, -2.95%) on 6 Oct 2017.

The Matthew effect: What seems high will go higher, what seems low will go lower.

How to identify a strong uptrend on a chart?

• Price is moving up at a 45° angle from the lower left to the upper right side of the chart.
• Price is trading above the 200 SMA, price action has been making higher highs and higher lows.

Crude Oil: Declining towards $50 ~ 5 Oct 2017
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/crude-oil-declining-towards-50-201710051012

[zuolun]

U.S. oil benchmark ends below $60 a barrel for first time in 2018 ~ 9 Feb 2018
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-slides-for-6th-day-and-heads-for-76-weekly-slump-2018-02-09
Data released Friday revealed the biggest weekly jump in the number of U.S. oil-drilling rigs since January 2017, contributing to concerns about a surge in U.S. production.

U.S. oil reserve would fall nearly in half under budget deal ~ 9 Feb 2018
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/02/08/u-s-oil-reserve-would-fall-nearly-in-half-under-budget-deal



What’s behind the energy stock selloff? ~ 8 Feb 2018
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whats-Behind-The-Energy-Stock-Selloff.html

Oil Prices: It could get very ugly for oil investors in 2018 ~ 8 Feb 2018
https://www.lombardiletter.com/oil-prices-get-ugly-oil-investors-2018/26244/



U.S. oil production is rising much faster than expected ~ 7 Feb 2018
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Production-Is-Rising-Much-Faster-Than-Expected.html

Oil prices tank as US crude stockpiles jump by 1.9 million barrels, fuel stocks also rise ~ 6 Feb 2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/oil-prices-focus-on-report-of-decline-in-us-crude-stocks.html

Oil prices ravaged by financial turmoil ~ 5 Feb 2018
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Ravaged-By-Financial-Turmoil.html
The steady decline of the U.S. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks, but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday. The broader financial system is finally facing some questions after a remarkable bull run, which is magnifying the danger for crude benchmark prices.

[zuolun]

The ONLY bullish commodity now is GOLD; other soft commodities and hard commodities prices are affected by the current trade war between U.S. (tariffs ~ a tax of 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum) and China (tariffs on US imports on 128 products ranging from pork, meat and fruit to steel pipes. The  impact (+ve and -ve) of trade war on commodities prices is yet to be seen.

The big picture for gold is bullish ~ 26 Dec 2017
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2017/12/26/the-big-picture-for-gold-is-bullish.html
Fed rate hikes push gold into bullish territory. The key level to note is $1400—a breakout above this level will signify that gold is leaving behind the base pattern to enter a new bull market phase.

Oil drops after U.S. President Trump threatens new China trade tariffs ~ 6 Apr 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-after-u-s-president-trump-threatens-new-china-trade-tariffs-idUSKCN1HD080
Brent crude LCOc1 for June delivery was down 45 cents, or 0.66 percent, at $67.88 per barrel at 0645 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery CLc1 was down 41 cents, or 0.65 percent, at 63.13 a barrel.

Crude oil price bears - Stay the course ~ 4 Apr 2018
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article61980.html

[dan_koo]

 

[lim_90]

nice! 

[Zhorlok]

I don't know who is responsible for the condition of Venezuela but the people has had enough of it. The economy is worse than ever and the normal people are the main victims of it. I hope that the upcoming time will be better for them but I don't see this happening at all.

[Fenrimi631]

I like working with oil because it always gives good prospects and there is always news that is connected with it and provides good movement. Besides, oil correlates well with the dollar and gold accordingly. So only on the basis of these assets you can create an excellent investment portfolio for at least six months. Naturally, if investments allow it. In general, every day starts with an oil analysys, and then I study the data on other assets. I do not know what it is connected with, but I received my biggest income from oil.