Author Topic: Casino Stocks  (Read 73710 times)

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1350 on: March 12, 2019, 10:23:10 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX反弹在于「三只黑乌鸦」或「五连阴」?


SGX ~ Bearish Double Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.27

SGX had a hammer and traded @ S$7.46 (-0.01, -0.1%) with high volume done at 3.05m shares on 12 Mar 2019 at 1015 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$7.35, immediate resistance @ S$7.75.



SGX ~ Bearish Double Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.27

SGX gapped down and closed with a "three black crows" @ S$7.47 (-0.29, -3.7%) with high volume done at 8.51m shares on 11 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.35, immediate resistance @ S$7.75.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1351 on: March 12, 2019, 12:13:58 PM »
苏小妹:

Following are some useful methods in technical analysis:
a. Trend analysis
b. Chart pattern analysis
c. Momentum analysis
d. Candlestick analysis


经典K线形态战法:

三只黑乌鸦与三个白武士



高档五连阴



低档五连阳


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1352 on: March 13, 2019, 08:58:31 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX被双面颊;本地生意量收缩,MSCI中国A股指数期货(A50 futures)生意将受香港交易所(HKEx)影响。No smoke without fire, everything happened for a reason.


港星爭A股期指生意 ~ 12 Mar 2019
https://hk.finance.appledaily.com/finance/realtime/article/20190312/59358293
港交所(388)昨日公佈與MSCI合作協議,指經證監會審批後將因應市況推出MSCI中國A股指數期貨合約,暫時未有具體推出日期,推出後可與同為境外掛牌的新加坡A股期貨分一杯羹。業界指新期貨讓市場有更多對沖工具選擇,對比追蹤大型A股的A50期指,MSCI涵蓋範圍更廣。

港交所将推出MSCI中国A股指数期货 ~ 12 Mar 2019
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001081815
香港交易所(HKEx)已与指数供应商MSCI签订协议,将于今年11月推出针对MSCI招牌性的新兴市场指数(Emerging Markets index)中A股部分的期货合约。这一基础性的举措将让国际投资者终于能够对冲他们中国A股敞口的风险。

Singapore Exchange under pressure as HKEX jostles for China market ~ 12 Mar 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/sgx-hkex-strategy/singapore-exchange-under-pressure-as-hkex-jostles-for-china-market-idUSL3N20Z16O
“SGX’s China A50 and HKEX’s new futures are definitely competing products and we could see some migration away from Singapore to Hong Kong,” said Michael Wu, an analyst at research firm Morningstar, but noting this shift would be more nuanced than institutions moving all their trading from one exchange to the other.

SGX ~ Bearish Double Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.27

SGX closed with a black marubozu @ S$7.35 (-0.12, -1.6%) with high volume done at 10.2m shares on 12 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.27, immediate resistance @ S$7.51.



The incredible shrinking Singapore stock market ~ 12 Feb 2019
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/the-incredible-shrinking-singapore-stock-market
Singapore's equity capital market proceeds crashed 30.1% to $6.73 billion YTD.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1353 on: March 13, 2019, 10:46:28 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX没在「三只黑乌鸦」反弹;接下来要看反弹是否在于「五连阴」,「七连阴」或「九连阴」了。


Understanding and relying on analysts' calls

In-house stock analysts' rating lingo:
“downgrade” means SELL
“underperform” means SELL
“underweight” means SELL
"equal weight” means SELL
“neutral” means SELL
“hold” means SELL
“reduce” means SELL
“sell” means SELL and SHORT-SELL
"cease coverage" means SELL

Broker's take: Citi Research downgrades SGX to 'sell' as HKSE's China futures contract product may curb profits

By Navin Sregantan
Tue, Mar 12, 2019 - 11:49 am

CITI Research has downgraded its call on bourse operator Singapore Exchange (SGX) to "sell" and lowered its target price from S$7.80 to S$7.00 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's (HKSE) plans to introduce MSCI China A Index futures, which could eat into demand for SGX's China A50 Index futures.

SGX's China A50 Index futures is currently the only offshore futures contract tracking the Chinese A-share market.

Index compiler MSCI and the HKSE said on Monday they will launch futures contracts on the MSCI China A Index to provide a hedging tool as global investor interest in Chinese mainland shares surges.

Citi analyst Robert Kong noted that while the "timing of such a product launch is still uncertain, the expectation is months rather than years".

While it is difficult to predict the precise impact on SGX’s China A50 contract, Citi downgraded SGX as the contract has been "the most important driver of SGX derivatives growth in recent years". It accounted for around 38 per cent of total contract volumes for FY2018.

Citi added that "derivatives growth has been the key driver of SGX revenues (and earnings) in recent years as equities turnover has struggled to break out of the S$1.1 billion to S$1.2 billion per day range".

Therefore, Citi has cut FY2019 to estimated 2021 forecasts between 6 and 17 per cent mainly on lower derivatives growth.

"SGX has committed to a sustainable dividend of S$0.30 per share which we view provides support around S$7.00."

As at 11.43am, SGX's shares were trading down S$0.05 or 0.7 per cent at S$7.42. The counter closed down S$0.29 or 3.7 per cent at S$7.47 on Monday.

SGX ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.03

SGX had a black marubozu and traded @ S$7.23 (-0.12, -1.6%) with high volume done at 3.11m shares on 13 Mar 2019 at 1040 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$7.18, immediate resistance @ S$7.40.



SGX ~ Bearish Double Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.27

SGX closed with a black marubozu @ S$7.35 (-0.12, -1.6%) with high volume done at 10.2m shares on 12 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.27, immediate resistance @ S$7.51.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1354 on: March 13, 2019, 11:03:30 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX没在「三只黑乌鸦」反弹;接下来要看反弹是否在于「五连阴」,「七连阴」或「九连阴」了。

苏小妹:

数字数学,趣味数学,有趣又神奇的数字。


什么叫奇数,偶数,单数,双数?
https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/605930
奇数就是不能被2整除的;如1,3,5,7,9...

What is Fibonacci retracement, and where do its ratios come from?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp
The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of the two preceding terms, and the sequence continues infinitely. One of the remarkable characteristics of this numerical sequence is that each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number. This common relationship between every number in the series is the foundation of the common ratios used in retracement studies.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1355 on: March 13, 2019, 04:36:02 PM »
苏小妹:

图表与数据都显示SGX的大户集体卖空(short-sell)这只股票。

量开始急跳于2019年3月7号、8号;特别重量是集中于11号和12号,价跌量增 = 「 价量背离」

Negative volume and price divergence /  Suppy > Demand = Price Decrease

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/divergence.asp

SGX faces threat from HKEX China Share move ~ 13 Mar 2019
https://macaudailytimes.com.mo/singapore-exchange-faces-threat-from-hkex-china-share-move.html
When trading starts, it will end SGX’s effective monopoly on offshore derivatives based on Chinese A shares which it has held since trading in its FTSE China A50 contract started in 2006. That will be a challenge for a derivatives contract which has been an important driver of SGX’s growth in recent years, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Robert Kong, who downgraded SGX shares to a sell from neutral.




Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1356 on: March 13, 2019, 09:06:28 PM »
苏小妹:

SGX的庄家是以45°拉高价格,90°重量砸盘出货。对比AMEDIA的图形,它们上升和下跌的角度是否很相似?

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)


SGX ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.03

SGX closed with a black marubozu @ S$7.26 (-0.09, -1.2%) with high volume done at 7.24m shares on 13 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.18, immediate resistance @ S$7.40.



AMEDIA  ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout

AMEDIA closed with a black spinning top @ 0.32 (-0.02, -5.9%) with high volume done at 43.8m shares on 17 Oct 2012.

Immediate support 0.30, immediate resistance 0.35.



Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1357 on: March 14, 2019, 12:59:44 PM »
苏小妹:

指数股可以用图形来对比和确认市场分析师所预测的数字是否准确。


Following are some useful methods in technical analysis:
a. Trend analysis
b. Chart pattern analysis
c. Momentum analysis
d. Candlestick analysis

KLCI to trade range bound, hurdle at 1,680 ~ 13 Mar 2019
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci-trade-range-bound-hurdle-1680
The analysis of overall market action on March 12 revealed that buying power was stronger than selling pressure. “As such, the FBM KLCI would likely trade above the 1,672.94 level on March 13,” said AllianceDBS Research.

FBMKLCI ~ Falling wedge (reversal) chart pattern, strong resistance @ 1,730

FBMKLCI closed @ 1,678.24 (+6.96, +0.4%) on 13 Mar 2019.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1358 on: March 14, 2019, 02:06:14 PM »
苏小妹:

指数股可以用图形来对比和确认市场分析师所预测的数字是否准确。


Following are some useful methods in technical analysis:
a. Trend analysis
b. Chart pattern analysis
c. Momentum analysis
d. Candlestick analysis

STI ~ Trading in a rectangle「长期高价位盘整」

STI closed @ 3,195.59 (-16.66, -0.5%) on 13 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ 3150, immediate resistance @ 3218.



Performance chart: STI vs DBS, UOB and OCBC ~ 8 Mar 2019



Investors waiting for more info

Data releases due this week include developments on Brexit vote and news on US-China trade deal

By Navin Sregantan
12 Mar 2019

Until further developments and details emerge, analysts told The Business Times that markets in Singapore and Asia are likely to continue to trade cautiously like yesterday.

CMC Markets' Margaret Yang said investors were on the sidelines due to a "lack of catalysts in the Singapore market".

Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian's vice-president of equities and financial products Brandon Leu suggested that investors were waiting for the many data releases due later in the week for a clearer regional outlook.

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) dropped 4.45 points or 0.14 per cent to close at 3,191.42 yesterday.

IG market strategist Pan Jingyi observed that the blue-chip index continues to "hover above the support level of around 3,173 points".

The lack of activity in the session meant that trading clocked in at a muted 952.52 million securities worth $792.81 million, below the Singapore bourse's average. Decliners outnumbered advancers 234 to 168.

Like the Singapore market, other markets in Asia ended trading on Friday lower, but the region was mixed yesterday.

Ms Pan said: "It is not a surprise to see a mixed but muted start to the week for the Asian markets, as global equity markets remain in no-man's land."

She cited the US-China trade issue, which continues to hang in the balance between earnings seasons, as well as the largely mixed data releases from the US and China.

"The data releases lack transparency due to factors such as the US government shutdown and the Chinese New Year, effectively marring them."

Markets in Australia and Malaysia ended lower. Meanwhile, those in North Asia ended the day higher on the back of Chinese officials boosting sentiment that policy support would lift a slowing economy in China.

China's Shanghai Composite Index fared best. It fell 4.4 per cent on Friday but has pared losses to add 57.13 points or 1.92 per cent to close at 3,026.99.

Sixteen of the STI's 30 constituents ended in the black. Among them, food and beverage player ThaiBev was the blue-chip index's most traded.

ThaiBev ended the session up half a cent or 0.6 per cent to close at 80 cents with 17.1 million shares changing hands. The counter has gained 31 per cent since the start of the year.

Singapore Exchange (SGX) was among the STI's worst performers on the day, with its shares closing 29 cents or 3.7 per cent down at $7.47. The counter saw $64.5 million of shares traded, the most on the day.

Index compiler MSCI and the Hong Kong stock exchange said they will launch futures contracts on the MSCI China A Index to provide a hedging tool as global investor interest in Chinese mainland shares surges. This may rival the SGX's A50 Index Futures, which is currently the only offshore futures contract tracking the Chinese A-share market.

Last week's flavour for the most part - tech counters - had a strong rally yesterday.

Hi-P International was the bourse's most traded with 27.9 million shares traded. Shares in the contract manufacturer's shares finished 17 cents or 11 per cent up at $1.72, with the total value of the trades clocking in at roughly $46.1 million.

Memtech International closed two cents or 1.9 per cent up at $1.06. Ms Yang said "speculative activities" by investors were probably a result of both Hi-P's and Memtech's performance yesterday.

Reclaims Global, the Catalist board's newest member, debuted yesterday. It closed at 14.8 cents, 35.7 per cent down on its initial public offering price of 23 cents.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1359 on: March 14, 2019, 02:27:32 PM »
苏小妹:

你懂得区分STI与FBMKLCI的图形有何不同?

Between STI and FBMKLCI, which chart pattern has a higher potential to rise higher and faster after the retracement?


STI ~ Trading in a rectangle「长期高价位盘整」

STI closed @ 3,195.59 (-16.66, -0.5%) on 13 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ 3150, immediate resistance @ 3218.



FBMKLCI ~ Falling wedge (reversal) chart pattern, strong resistance @ 1,730

FBMKLCI closed @ 1,678.24 (+6.96, +0.4%) on 13 Mar 2019.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1360 on: March 14, 2019, 03:46:59 PM »
苏小妹:

SGX反弹在于「五连阴」?必须看今天(2019年3月14日)的收市价和随后的一根或两根蜡烛与交易量;才能确认反弹还否继续。

Note: Confirmation of a bullish short-term reversal is required with 1 to 2 candles accompanied by strong volume.


SGX ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.03

SGX had a bullish harami cross and traded @ S$7.30 (+0.04, +0.6%) with high volume done at 3.64m shares on 14 Mar 2019 at 1540 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$7.18, immediate resistance @ S$7.40.



What does a bullish harami cross candlestick pattern imply?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/haramicross.asp
The market has been overwhelmed by strong selling pressure for some time. All of a sudden, the buyers (bulls) step in and open the price higher than the previous day's close. After the strong opening, the price moves only in a small range and is contained within the previous day's body. At the end of the day, the price closes at the opening level, forming a Doji. The Doji indicates market indecision and a potential trend reversal. The volume of the doji's day should also dry up, reflecting complete market indecision. A higher close on the following day (preferably with strong volume) would be needed to ascertain that the trend may be in a reversal.

Bullish harami cross candlestick pattern


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1361 on: March 14, 2019, 04:17:59 PM »
苏小妹:

ComfortDelgro有两个图形叠在一起;重要的阻力价位在S$2.49。
• Ascending Broadening Wedge chart pattern
• Bullish Inverted Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern


ComfortDelgro ~ Ascending Broadening Wedge, strong resistance @ S$2.49

ComfortDelgro closed with a hanging man @ S$2.47 (+0.03, +1.2%) with 7.77m shares done on 13 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$2.38, strong resistance @ S$2.49.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1362 on: March 14, 2019, 05:49:16 PM »
苏小妹:

SGX反弹在于「五连阴」?必须看明天(2019年3月15日)的收市价和随后的一根或两根蜡烛与交易量;才能确认反弹还否继续。

Note: Confirmation of a bullish short-term reversal is required with 1 to 2 candles accompanied by strong volume.


SGX ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.03

SGX closed with a bullish harami @ S$7.31 (+0.05, +0.7%) with high volume done at 4.85m shares on 14 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.22, immediate resistance @ S$7.40.



What does a bullish harami candlestick pattern imply?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullishharami.asp
A bullish Harami is a candlestick pattern indicator for reversal in a bear price movement.

Bullish harami candlestick pattern


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1363 on: March 14, 2019, 06:10:22 PM »
Understanding and relying on in-house stock analysts' calls

In-house stock analysts' rating lingo:
“downgrade” means SELL
“underperform” means SELL
“underweight” means SELL
"equal weight” means SELL
“neutral” means SELL
“hold” means SELL
“reduce” means SELL
“sell” means SELL and SHORT-SELL
"cease coverage" means SELL

CIMB cut Japfa to 'reduce' TP S$0.63 ~ 14 Mar 2019
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/japfa-cut-reduce-amid-swine-fever-outbreak-vietnam-lower-poultry-margins-indonesia

Japfa ~ Bearish AB = CD Pattern

Japfa closed with a black marubozu @ S$0.66 (-0.055, -7.7%) with high volume done at 12.9m shares on 14 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.64, immediate resistance @ S$0.68.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1364 on: March 15, 2019, 09:08:13 AM »
Understanding and relying on in-house stock analysts' calls

In-house stock analysts' rating lingo:
“downgrade” means SELL
“underperform” means SELL
“underweight” means SELL
"equal weight” means SELL
“neutral” means SELL
“hold” means SELL
“reduce” means SELL
“sell” means SELL and SHORT-SELL
"cease coverage" means SELL

CIMB Research lowers Bumi Armada TP to 15 sen ~ 4 Mar 2019
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/03/04/cimb-research-lowers-bumi-armada-tp-to-15-sen/

ARMADA ~ Trading in a rectangle 「长期低价位盘整」

ARMADA closed with a doji unchanged @ RM0.195 with 93.1m shares done on 14 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM0.18, immediate resistance @ RM0.21.



Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1365 on: March 16, 2019, 09:42:42 AM »
Japfa ~ Bearish AB = CD Pattern

Japfa closed with a hammer @ S$0.65 (-0.01, -1.5%) with 5.81m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.64, immediate resistance @ S$0.68.



Japfa ~ Bearish AB = CD Pattern

Japfa closed with a black marubozu @ S$0.66 (-0.055, -7.7%) with high volume done at 12.9m shares on 14 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.64, immediate resistance @ S$0.68.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1366 on: March 16, 2019, 11:36:53 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX与Japfa的向下爆跌大致相同;这是一根90°的「旗杆」。随后价格横摆或逐步上升就形成了「旗」。这就是「下降旗形」(bear flag)的演变过程。

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)


SGX ~ Bearish Tower Top Breakout, critical support @ S$7.03

SGX closed with a hammer @ S$7.33 (+0.02, +0.3%) with high volume done at 10.4m shares on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$7.22, immediate resistance @ S$7.40.



Japfa ~ Bearish AB = CD Pattern

Japfa closed with a hammer @ S$0.65 (-0.01, -1.5%) with 5.81m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.64, immediate resistance @ S$0.68.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1367 on: March 16, 2019, 11:49:34 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX与Japfa的向下爆跌大致相同;这是一根90°的「旗杆」。随后价格横摆或逐步上升就形成了「旗」。这就是「下降旗形」(bear flag)的演变过程。

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)

以下是两个90°的下降旗形例子(Examples of 2 Bear Flags at 90° Down)


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1368 on: March 17, 2019, 07:26:20 AM »
苏小妹:

SGX与Japfa的向下爆跌大致相同;这是一根90°的「旗杆」。随后价格横摆或逐步上升就形成了「旗」。这就是「下降旗形」(bear flag)的演变过程。

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)

M1: 一个45°「下降三角旗形」例子(Example of a Bear Pennant Breakout at 45° Down)

M1 ~ Bear Pennant Breakout

M1 closed with a spinning top @ S$3.11 (-0.02, -0.6%) with 960,000 shares done on 3 Aug 2015.

Immediate support @ S$3.09, immediate resistance @ S$3.16.



M1 peaked @ S$3.78 on 2 Mar 2015 and hit a last low of S$1.46 on 22 Jun 2018.

M1 ~ Bear Pennant Breakout

M1 closed with a hammer @ S$2.61 (+0.01, +0.4%) with 1.35m shares done on 18 Jan 2016.

Immediate support @ S$2.50, immediate resistance @ S$2.68.



Bear Pennant Breakout
https://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1369 on: March 17, 2019, 10:33:01 AM »
苏小妹:

PADINI:手先是一根45°断崖式下跌的「旗杆」。随后价格横摆或逐步上升就形成了「旗」。这就是「下降旗形」(bear flag)的演变过程。

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)


PADINI ~ Bear Flag formation

PADINI closed with a white marubozu @ RM3.67 (+0.10, +2.8%) with 1.08m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM3.50, immediate resistance @ RM3.74.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1370 on: March 17, 2019, 12:55:15 PM »
证券行与证券行「互相对赌」是最好看的游戏;各司各法,各为其主。

Sometimes, before and after company's quarterly earnings results are released, broking houses ratings may differ. It is interesting to watch how the institutional players are betting among themselves via broking houses. Sentiments and emotions of these big guns will swing the share price. Remember: when elephants (institutional players) fight, it is the grass (retail players) that suffers. Chart reading would be easier if most broking houses agree on one direction when company's quarterly earnings results are not good. Just like Starhub; one BUY from MaybanKE against all others rated as SELL.

苏小妹:

SGX:螳螂捕蝉,黄雀在后。


Broker's take: Jefferies maintained BUY on SGX TP S$8.20

By Navin Sregantan
Mar 14, 2019 06:00 am

While we acknowledge that the increased weighting of China in MSCI EM indices is a key development and the expected launch of MSCI China A Index futures is a credible threat, we are not overly concerned.

SGX has faced such competition time and again. There were concerns about China A50 futures when CES China 120 futures was launched in 2013.

Iron ore contracts were under threat when CME launched competing products in 2014. More recently, there were concerns about SGX Nifty futures. That said, derivative revenue has grown annually by 11 per cent since 2013 and annual volume has nearly doubled in the period.

First mover advantage, complementary product suite, cross-margining facility, access to interdealer markets using US dollar-denominated products and growing currency futures are a few strengths that SGX can draw upon.

In our view, it is too early to infer impact on earnings. Last year, SGX similarly fell 7.3 per cent on the back of Nifty news flow. However, it did not impact earnings or dividend.

We continue to believe SGX has multiple uncorrelated revenue streams with near monopoly position in clearing. Valuation is comparable or cheaper than Asian peers.

Broker's take: Citi Research downgrades SGX to 'sell' as HKSE's China futures contract product may curb profits

By Navin Sregantan
Tue, Mar 12, 2019 - 11:49 am

CITI Research has downgraded its call on bourse operator Singapore Exchange (SGX) to "sell" and lowered its target price from S$7.80 to S$7.00 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's (HKSE) plans to introduce MSCI China A Index futures, which could eat into demand for SGX's China A50 Index futures.

SGX's China A50 Index futures is currently the only offshore futures contract tracking the Chinese A-share market.

Index compiler MSCI and the HKSE said on Monday they will launch futures contracts on the MSCI China A Index to provide a hedging tool as global investor interest in Chinese mainland shares surges.

Citi analyst Robert Kong noted that while the "timing of such a product launch is still uncertain, the expectation is months rather than years".

While it is difficult to predict the precise impact on SGX’s China A50 contract, Citi downgraded SGX as the contract has been "the most important driver of SGX derivatives growth in recent years". It accounted for around 38 per cent of total contract volumes for FY2018.

Citi added that "derivatives growth has been the key driver of SGX revenues (and earnings) in recent years as equities turnover has struggled to break out of the S$1.1 billion to S$1.2 billion per day range".

Therefore, Citi has cut FY2019 to estimated 2021 forecasts between 6 and 17 per cent mainly on lower derivatives growth.

"SGX has committed to a sustainable dividend of S$0.30 per share which we view provides support around S$7.00."

As at 11.43am, SGX's shares were trading down S$0.05 or 0.7 per cent at S$7.42. The counter closed down S$0.29 or 3.7 per cent at S$7.47 on Monday.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1371 on: March 18, 2019, 10:04:05 AM »
苏小妹:

虽然SP Setia反弹于「三只黑乌鸦」(2019年3月1日)。可惜因为第4根K线「光头阳线」以及随后的K线没有量的支撑 (no buying pressure),所以股价很快又再往下跌。


SP Setia (8864) ~ Potential Double Bottom formation

SP Setia closed with a hammer @ RM2.26 (+0.04, +1.8%) with 3.12m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM2.16, immediate resistance @ RM2.30.




SP Setia (8864) ~ Potential Double Bottom formation

SP Setia closed with a black marubozu @ RM2.21 (-0.08, -3.5%) with 3.25m shares done on 1 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM2.11, immediate resistance @ RM2.35.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1372 on: March 18, 2019, 11:26:49 AM »
AEM ~ Intermediate Bullish Trend Reversal

AEM closed with a "three black crows" candlestick pattern @ S$1.22 (-0.02, -1.6%) with 7.93m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.19, immediate resistance @ S$1.29.



AEM ~ Bearish Diamond Top Breakout, interim S$0.51

AEM closed with a spinning top @ S$0.81 (-0.015, -1.8%) with 9.45m shares done on 5 Oct 2018.

Immediate support @ S$0.755, immediate resistance @ S$0.83.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1373 on: March 18, 2019, 11:34:01 AM »
苏小妹:

对比 AEM 和 SP Setia 这种断崖式下跌之后的反转形态;你晓的必须注意的重点在哪里吗?


AEM ~ Intermediate Bullish Trend Reversal

AEM closed with a "three black crows" candlestick pattern @ S$1.22 (-0.02, -1.6%) with 7.93m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.19, immediate resistance @ S$1.29.



SP Setia (8864) ~ Potential Double Bottom formation

SP Setia closed with a hammer @ RM2.26 (+0.04, +1.8%) with 3.12m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM2.16, immediate resistance @ RM2.30.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1374 on: March 18, 2019, 02:55:43 PM »
苏小妹:

断崖式下跌之后的反转形态;你晓的必须注意的重点在哪里吗?
1.  GENTING (3182)
2.  GENM (4715)
3.  AEM
4.  SP Setia (8864)


GENTING (3182) ~ Intermediate Bullish Trend Reversal

GENTING closed with a hammer @ RM6.95 (-0.03, -0.4%) with 9.51m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM6.80, immediate resistance @ RM7.08.



GENM (4715) ~ Intermediate Bullish Trend Reversal

GENM closed with a hanging man unchanged @ RM3.41 with 12.6m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM3.35, immediate resistance @ RM3.47.



AEM ~ Intermediate Bullish Trend Reversal

AEM closed with a "three black crows" candlestick pattern @ S$1.22 (-0.02, -1.6%) with 7.93m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.19, immediate resistance @ S$1.29.



SP Setia (8864) ~ Potential Double Bottom formation

SP Setia closed with a hammer @ RM2.26 (+0.04, +1.8%) with 3.12m shares done on 15 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM2.16, immediate resistance @ RM2.30.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1375 on: March 18, 2019, 04:00:43 PM »
苏小妹:

断崖式下跌之后的反转形态;你晓的必须注意的重点在哪里吗?
1.  GENTING (3182)
2.  GENM (4715)
3.  AEM
4.  SP Setia (8864)

苏小妹:

人生不是赢在起点,也不是赢在终点,而是赢在转折点。

Fundamental analysis coupled with technical analysis are useful and essential tools to forecast future trends in stock prices. However, buying stocks for long investment most of the time is after confirmation of a company's profitability turnaround, not before confirmation. From a technical perspective, when a major trend is convincingly reversed, the share price is likely to continue in that reversal direction for an extended period of time.


♪ 許冠傑 ∼ 人生多麼好♪
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRZUJ0iijlQ


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1376 on: March 20, 2019, 10:32:41 AM »
Fundamental analysis coupled with technical analysis are useful and essential tools to forecast future trends in stock prices. However, buying stocks for long investment most of the time is after confirmation of a company's profitability turnaround, not before confirmation. From a technical perspective, when a major trend is convincingly reversed, the share price is likely to continue in that reversal direction for an extended period of time.

苏小妹:

OWG: Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis = negative at this point of time.


CIMB Research downgrades Only World Group, lowers target price to 52 sen ~ 28 Feb 2019
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cimb-research-downgrades-only-world-group-lowers-target-price-52-sen
"OWG’s 1HFY6/19 core net loss of RM0.4 million, after excluding a tax allowance of RM12.6 million."

OWG (5260) ~ Potential Double Bottom, TP RM0.46

OWG closed with a black marubozu @ RM0.61 (-0.02, -3.2%) with 710,000 shares done on 19 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM0.57, immediate resistance @ RM0.65.



AmInvest downgraded OWG to "HOLD" TP RM0.58 ~ 27 Nov 2018
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/11/27/only-world-group-downgraded-after-theme-park-abandoned-in-us$1b-suit/
Only World Group (OWG) is also impacted by the fallout from the Genting Malaysia Bhd’s US$1bil deal with Walt Disney Co and 21st Century Fox Inc.

OWG (5260) ~ Bearish Descending Triangle Breakout, interim TP RM0.37

OWG closed with a black marubozu @ RM0.485 (-0.135, -21.8%) with 13.4m shares done on 27 Nov 2018.

Immediate support @ RM0.44, immediate resistance @ RM0.595.


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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1377 on: March 21, 2019, 10:29:43 AM »
苏小妹:

DairyFarm的向下爆跌形成了一根45°的「旗杆」。随后价格逐步上升就形成了「旗」。

之后价格穿破了支撑线再继续爆跌。这就是「下降旗形」(Bear Flag)从开始到完成的整个过程。

(Identify and differentiate by an angle of 30°,45°,60° and 90°)


DairyFarm ~ Bear Flag Breakout

DairyFarm closed with a white marubozu @ US$7.74 (+0.33, +4.5%) with 1.25m shares done on 20 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ US$7.42, immediate resistance @ US$7.88.



Bear Flag Breakout Chart Pattern


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1378 on: March 22, 2019, 07:20:10 AM »
苏小妹:

DairyFarm:螳螂捕蝉,黄雀在后。各司各法,各为其主。

2019年3月20日的一根k线反转型态「光头阳线」(+0.33, +4.5%);就是这样神奇的突然蹦出来的。(strong buying pressure due to massive short-covering)


RHB upgraded DairyFarm to “BUY” TP US$8.25 ~ 20 Mar 2019
https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/96/rhb-report-sg_dairy-farm_company-update_20180320_rhb-89863809731805705c91650bb573b.pdf

DBS maintained "HOLD" on DairyFarm, TP US$8.44 ~ 4 Mar 2019
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/more-time-needed-dairy-farms-restructuring-show-results
Analysts are keeping a neutral stance on Dairy Farm, a member of the Jardine Matheson Group, following its FY18 results announcement.

DairyFarm ~ Bear Flag Breakout

DairyFarm closed with a white marubozu @ US$7.74 (+0.33, +4.5%) with 1.25m shares done on 20 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ US$7.42, immediate resistance @ US$7.88.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1379 on: March 22, 2019, 08:14:22 AM »
苏小妹:

对比2019年一月初DairyFarm的断崖式下跌;它有点像2011年五月初Keppel Corp的断崖式下跌。


DairyFarm ~ Bear Flag Breakout

DairyFarm closed with a white marubozu @ US$7.74 (+0.33, +4.5%) with 1.25m shares done on 20 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ US$7.42, immediate resistance @ US$7.88.



In 2011, I longed Keppel Corp shares at S$7.70 per share and set my SL @ S$7.30. When that price was triggered, I realized a total loss of S$6,000 for that trade.

Back then, my 师姐 was also trying to pick-bottom on Keppel Corp with 3 times higher volume than me. She started higher @ S$8.00 per share and had a tight SL of 2% per trade.  Every trade she did was a loss; each failed attempt was a 2% cut loss. Her trading style was an eye-opening to me because after several failed attempts and finally @ S$7.00 (at the KRD), she increased her long positions substantially whenever the share price shot higher. “行到水穷处,坐看云起时。”


Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #1380 on: March 22, 2019, 10:29:02 AM »
苏小妹:

对比2019年一月初DairyFarm的断崖式下跌;它有点像2011年五月初Keppel Corp的断崖式下跌。

苏小妹:

CFD punters who betted on DairyFarm but didn't place a tight SL price level would have suffered very heavy losses because of the leverage effect.

"They have real-time data of who're losing and continue to lose heavily when the share price collapses."


IG charges
https://www.ig.com/sg/our-charges