Author Topic: Casino Stocks  (Read 1594961 times)

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2300 on: April 01, 2021, 12:27:29 PM »
譚德塞變臉欲重查武漢實驗室,中共翻臉;14國抵制世衛報告,譚德塞兩頭不是人;中共專家變身芮成鋼,代表全世界?~ 1 Apr 2021

Japan wants further probe into COVID-19 origins | WHO Corona report ~ 31 Mar 2021
The U.S. and other countries say the WHO report lacked crucial information, access and transparency and further study was warranted.

新冠病毒溯源专家组发表初步研究报告 世卫组织总干事表示“所有的假定仍然都在考虑范围之内” ~ 30 Mar 2021

WHO Report: Wildlife farms, not market, likely source of coronavirus pandemic ~ 29 Mar 2021
  • According to the report, data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was not the original source of the outbreak.
  • In addition, the report noted that "introduction through a laboratory incident" — a leak from the lab in Wuhan — "was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway."
  • The report further suggests that animals in livestock farms in southeast Asia could be "linked to early human cases" and that further study on these farms is needed.
中美疾控中心主任通話內容曝光!美專家斷言:新冠病毒從武漢P4「逃逸」,是中共軍方項目。最可怕的病毒變異已在法國出現。最準預言家告訴你,如何安全度過2021 ~ 28 Mar 2021
前美国疾病预防与控制中心(CDC)主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德(Robert Redfield)医生说,他相信新冠病毒是从武汉一家实验室逃逸出来的。

Covid-19: Five days that shaped the outbreak ~ 26 Jan 2021
30 December 2019: Virus alert
31 December: Offers of help
1 January 2020: International frustration
2 January: Silencing the doctors
3 January: Secret memo

港大教授袁國勇BBC受訪 質疑中共瞞疫遭下架 ~ 28 Jul 2020

Chinese doctor alleges covid cover-up, says Wuhan market was 'clean already' ~ 27 Jul 2020
Hong Kong Professor Kwok-Yung Yuen: "When we went to the Huanan supermarket, of course, there was nothing to see because the market was clean already. So, you may say that the crime scene is already disturbed because the supermarket was cleared. We cannot identify any host which is giving the virus to humans."

世卫内部文件显示,中国在关键时刻极力拖延疫情信息披露 ~ 2 Jun 2020

中国疾控中心主任 高福称从未说过不存在人传人 ~ 5 May 2020

世卫组织称暂无数据显示新冠病毒在中国以外持续本地传播 ~ 19 Feb 2020


Scientists shouldn't rule out lab as source of coronavirus, New Study says

By Jason Lemon
17 May 2020

A new scientific analysis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has argued that scientists should not rule out the possibility that the virus originated in a laboratory setting, no matter how likely or unlikely that could be.

While U.S. officials and intelligence agencies have held out the possibility of a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China has dismissed the idea as a conspiracy theory.

The scientific community has generally agreed with China's position that the Coronavirus jumped species in nature, probably at a wet market in the city of Wuhan. That view has been in part based on the evidence that the COVID-19 virus was not genetically manipulated.

Scientists who looked at the study at Newsweek's request said that the analysis is unconventional and uses techniques that are unproven. They cautioned against drawing conclusions until more research can corroborate the analysis.

The new study, which has not been peer-reviewed and was published on the site bioRxiv hosted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, notes that the novel virus is "well adapted for humans." It was authored by scientists from the Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Center at the University of British Columbia, the Fusion Genomics Corporation and the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. bioRxiv cautions that studies published on its site should not "be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or be reported in news media as established information."

"Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected," the authors of the study explained in the abstract.

"The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future re-emergence," they warned.

The analysis explains that there is still no clear evidence to point to a precise origin of the virus. The researchers explained, based on the genetic makeup and samples of the virus, it remains unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 adapted inside an intermediary animal host, within a human, or in a laboratory setting. It could have potentially jumped from species to species within a lab.

"Even the possibility that a non-genetically-engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely," the authors wrote.

In conclusion, the study cautions that various possibilities for how the outbreak began in humans "means that we need to take precautions against each scenario to prevent re-emergence."

Jonathan Eisen, a professor at the University of California, Davis, tweeted a thread Sunday about the study, after Newsweek published this story. He wrote: "I find this conclusion to be unconvincing for many reasons including: 1) They have not shown their methods work for detecting these patterns 2) Only compare to CoV 3) Not enough testing of alternative hypothesis 4) No strong evidence CoV2 well adapted to humans from start."

"I note - there are some interesting analyses in this preprint but I am really just not convinced that they have shown that they can make the inferences they are making based on these analysis," he added.

As Newsweek reported on April 27, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency updated an assessment of the origins of the novel coronavirus pandemic to suggest that it could have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Previously the assessment had concluded that the new virus had "probably occurred naturally."

Scientists and the intelligence community have largely dismissed conspiracy theories that the virus was genetically manipulated. Many scientists have also stressed that it is more likely that the virus arose naturally than that it leaked from a lab, although there is not yet conclusive evidence for either theory.

President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some top Republican lawmakers have quickly jumped behind the theory that the virus could have emerged from a lab leak. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was known to be researching coronaviruses similar to the one that has now caused the pandemic. But Chinese scientists at the facility and Chinese officials have roundly rejected the possibility that a lab leak could have spurred the global outbreak.

Pompeo has said that the U.S. does not have "certainty" about the Wuhan lab theory, but has said that there is "significant evidence that this came from the laboratory." Meanwhile, China has maintained that the virus emerged naturally, with initial analysis suggesting it came from a now infamous wet market in Wuhan.

However, the new study published on bioRxiv explains that from the wet market samples still in existence, it's not possible to determine if there was an intermediary species before the virus jumped to humans. "If intermediate animal hosts were present at the market, no evidence remains in the genetic samples available," the researchers wrote. They conclude that the available market samples were most likely from humans, not animals.

Trump, who is facing significant criticism within the U.S. for his administration's response to the pandemic, has repeatedly blamed China for the novel coronavirus outbreak. He has also suggested that the U.S. will attempt to punish China.

"There are many things we could do," the president told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday morning. "We could cut off the whole relationship."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of Trump's coronavirus task force who serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been less receptive to the Wuhan lab theory.

"If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what's out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated – the way the mutations have naturally evolved," Fauci said in an interview with National Geographic earlier this month.

"A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species," he said.

China has faced significant international criticism for its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Chinese officials initially covered up the outbreak in Wuhan. They have also appeared to be censoring research into the origins of the virus, and German and U.S. intelligence suggests that the World Health Organization (WHO) was pressured by China to downplay the threat posed by COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has attempted to shift the narrative, as it tries to position itself as a global leader in dealing with the pandemic by sending medical supplies to nations around the world.

As research into the origins of the novel coronavirus continues, the global pandemic has already infected nearly 4.7 million people around the world. Of those infected, more 313,000 have died while over 1.7 million have already recovered.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2301 on: April 02, 2021, 01:19:49 PM »
中国战狼满世界咆啸 重回文革变国际孤狼?(podcast) ~ 23 Mar 2021

Is China backing Myanmar's generals? ~ 3 Feb 2021
Did China support Myanmar's military in orchestrating a coup? What's in it for Beijing?
What does Myanmar's military coup mean for India and the rest of the neighbourhood?

姚树洁:中国为啥难有盟友? ~ 9 Sep 2012

UN envoy warns of possible civil war in Myanmar ~ 2 Apr 2021

Mixed reactions from netizens over Singapore’s non-interference stance on junta violence in Myanmar ~ 1 Apr 2021
Myanmar's ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been charged with violating the country's Official Secrets Act.
The new allegation was revealed by her lawyer. An earlier claim of treason could see her barred from political office for life.
At the same time, protests have continued as demonstrators mark two months since the February coup.

Yoma again extends completion date for Digital Money acquisition to 30 Apr 2021 ~ 31 Mar 2021

US orders non-essential personnel out of Myanmar as military escalates protest crackdown ~ 31 Mar 2021

India may face heat of US sanctions on Myanmar ~ 31 Mar 2021
The impact of US sanctions on two Myanmar military companies may be lapping Indian shores after Australian human rights lawyers claimed that Adani Group is financially involved with one of the companies.

EU sanctions Myanmar, Germany condemns 'murders' ~ 23 Mar 2021

Myanmar faces wider business fallout after Kirin retreat ~ 10 Feb 2021
  • With the US reiterating plans to renew sanctions, it could cause a rippling effect among businesses, threatening US$5.5 billion in foreign investment in a country that just a few years ago was on the path to democracy.
  • Among recent foreign deals, CVC Capital Partners reached an agreement in December to buy Myanmar’s biggest telecommunications tower company for close to US$700 million. The deal for Irrawaddy Green Towers Ltd was the second-biggest in the country, trailing only the acquisition of Myanmar Distillery group by a unit of Thai Beverage PCL.
  • Singapore’s sovereign wealth firm GIC Pte and Norway’s Norfund AS bought a 30% stake in Yoma Bank Ltd for 131 billion kyat (US$92.1 million) last April.
  • Nations with the most at stake from the instability include Singapore, Myanmar’s largest foreign investor, accounting for almost 34% of approved investment by dollar value, according to a World Bank report in December.

Japan's Kirin ends Myanmar beer tie-up with army-owned partner after coup ~ 5 Mar 2021
The move effectively scraps the joint venture called Myanmar Brewery, in which Kirin's controlling stake is valued at up to US$1.7 billion

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2302 on: April 02, 2021, 01:26:37 PM »
Yoma again extends completion date for Digital Money acquisition to 30 Apr 2021 ~ 31 Mar 2021

US orders non-essential personnel out of Myanmar as military escalates protest crackdown ~ 31 Mar 2021

Yoma ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.108

Yoma closed with a doji @ S$0.141 (+0.002, +1.4%) with 8.64m shares done on 1 Apr 2021.

Immediate support @ S$0.135, immediate resistance @ S$0.145.

Yoma closed @ S$0.141 on 1 Apr 2021.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2303 on: April 04, 2021, 01:51:35 PM »
「首席观察」千亿基金爆仓 华尔街投行有点慌 金融海啸会再次袭来吗? ~ 1 Apr 2021
  • 真真假假的喧嚣声中,一个是堪称全球资产定价之锚的10年美债收益率再创新高达1.774%,一个是美元指数升至93, 美油升至一周高位,达61.77美元/桶。
  • 这期间,接二连三的国际大事件也不断,诸如中美高层对话、多数中概股大跌、 千亿对冲基金Archegos保证金违约爆仓、国际投行瑞信、野村等纷纷发声(警示风险)。
  • 3月31日,全球股市涨跌不一,道指收跌0.26%,报32,981.55点;但纳指、标准普尔分别报收13,246.87(+1.54%)、3,972.89(+0.36%);欧洲英国富时、德国DAX、法国CAC,以及A股上证指数、深证成指均收跌。
The breakout of the stock market to record highs is being affirmed by one of the oldest indicators on Wall Street ~ 3 Apr 2021
  • Dow Theory is based on the relative price action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
  • Since mid-February, the Transportation Average has minted 14 new all-time highs, signaling more gains ahead for the broader market.

What’s next after stock-market bubbles and Archegos chaos mark trading in 1st quarter?

By Mark DeCambre
3 Apr 2021

Will a raucous first quarter of 2021 give way to more bubbliciousness in segments of the U.S. stock-market after blocked trade canals, surges in borrowing costs fueled by spiking bonds yields, and an unmitigated hunger to get rich quick in the coming three months of the year?

No one seems to know, but investors were unruffled by the warning signs sounded by the flameout of Archegos Capital Management last week. The ripple effects of the implosion of the family office of Bill Hwang, a protégé of famed investor Julian Robertson, could deliver a $10 billion hit to the banks that were part of a series of complex bets using heaps of borrowed money made by the family office, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Credit Suisse CS, and Nomura, have said that they expect to incur losses due to market volatility believed to be associated with Archegos. Even Wells Fargo WFC, wrestling with its own reputational dings, was involved in the complex trades but has stated that it doesn’t foresee losses due to the $30 billion unwind of Archegos wagers.

Hwang, a professionally trained, veteran investor, is hardly one to be likened to the collective of individual investors who congregated on Reddit and Discord chat boards to propel shares of so-called meme stocks like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, to breathtaking heights in the first quarter. Yet Hwang reportedly applied a similar playbook to that employed by the retail raiders.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Archegos founder routinely made concentrated bets within his portfolio that made his returns volatile and that he “liked to focus on stocks that were heavily ‘shorted,’ or had a high level of bearish positions,” citing a person familiar with the investment manager’s trades.

If that strategy sounds familiar, that is Reddit investing 101.

And it turns out that otherwise staid family offices have become a much riskier part of the market, embracing “investment strategies used in previous decades by the most aggressive hedge funds,” WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman reports, with 69% of these offices established over the past two decades perhaps as regulatory scrutiny on hedge funds intensified.

To be sure, the Archegos story doesn’t appear to be a redux of Long Term Capital Management, which suffered seismic losses in 1998 that sent shock waves throughout global markets, but the event does come at a precarious time for investors and continues to point to froth building up in the financial system amid interest rates that remain historically low and liquidity that is nearly unceasing.

A separate JPMorgan report dated March 30 said the Archegos blowup does raise eyebrows. “The Archegos events raise questions about leverage in the financial system,” wrote analysts including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

JPMorgan’s conclusion is that hedge fund leverage, in particular, has risen again since 2017 “and currently stands at the highest level since 2007,” but notes that the levels of borrowed funds remain significantly below the historic high levels around the Long Term Capital Management crisis.

Still, MarketWatch also has been curious about investors’ knack for dismissing calamities like Archegos and turbulence fueled by Redditors.

“The market is well positioned to handle things like this with all the liqudiuty being provided by the Fed,” Jeff Buchbinder, equity Strategist at LPL Financial, told MarketWatch in a Friday (Apr 2) interview.

Buchbinder said that the market didn’t perceive either GameStop nor Archegos as systemic risks, and grave concerns about the integrity of financial markets would have been perceived in widening credit spreads, reflecting the differential between what businesses pay to borrow money compared against the government.

Bond yields also maintained an upward trend in the first quarter, as investors continued to rotate out of risk-free debt and into assets that could perform better as the economy recovers from COVID. The 10-year Treasury note yield, 1.719% ended the week at 1.714%, with the bond market closing early at 12 p.m. Eastern in observance of Good Friday (Apr 2).

Buchbinder says that investors are more concerned about the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the outlook for the economy than they are about hedge-fund-like implosions and Redditors.

“Something we haven’t seen is inflation and a lot of people are worried about an inflation scare,” the analyst said.

The expectation for a surge in consumer prices come as the U.S. economy added 916,000 new jobs in March, well above the average forecast analysts surveyed by Dow Jones for 675,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 6% from 6.2%.

Some fear that those healthy figures portend a surge in the jobs market that could compel the Federal Reserve to rethink its projections for when easy-money policies will be normalized, currently at around 2023 and 2024,

“The Fed’s timetable probably has to move up a little but the market never really believed that they would wait until 2024 before raising rates, anyway,” Buchbinder said.

The LPL analyst said that the bigger fear—one that the market may not immediately be ready for—is tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying by as soon as the fall of this year.

Aiding the economic rebound is $1.9 trillion in COVID aid from Congress that is being doled out to small businesses and individuals reeling from the pandemic. President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal, which would also come along with tax hikes, could further juice the economy even as it potentially slows down the bull market in stocks with increased borrowing costs.

“The market will be concerned about the Fed most likely and that could slow this [stock-market] advance as we price in this economic recovery in the spring,” Buchbinder said.

What are investors to do against that backdrop?

LPL is still advising that a healthy dose of value, equities viewed as undervalued versus a metric such as book value, should be in investors’ portfolios but also believes that select growth-oriented stocks, which promise above-average earnings growth, will perform well over the longer term as well.

In fact, Louis Navellier, founder of asset-management firm Navellier & Associates, says that semiconductor companies, despite issues with chips, could be a good bet in 2021.

“High-tech companies that are crucial suppliers to cyclical companies stand to benefit hugely from the economic rebound, arguably more so than the companies they supply,” Navallier wrote in a research note dated April 1.

“The takeaway is that regardless of the ongoing growth versus value debate, the chip and chip equipment sector can claim to be both value and growth,” he writes.

“In the near term, value probably has a little bit of an advantage,” said Buchbinder estimates. The LPL analyst also said that investors should not be fearful of owning bonds as yields climb and prices fall because they still represent protection against bumps in the stock market ahead, particularly if the 10-year yield rise is capped at around 2%.

Durations, however, should be kept short, with LPL advising maturities of three to five years in fixed-income.

On Thursday (Apr 1), with the U.S. stock market closed on Good Friday, the S&P 500 index SPX (+1.18%), clinched its 16th record close of 2021, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (+0.52%), marked its second-highest finish in history, off less than 0.1% from its all-time closing high at 33,171.37, notched earlier last week. The yield-sensitive Nasdaq Composite COMP (+1.76%), is 4.4% from its Feb. 12 record high.

So, will this Wall Street party last forever ?

“At some point the Fed is going to take away the punchbowl,” said Buchbinder and maybe then events like Archegos will matter more to markets.

How a strong vs. weak dollar impacts U.S. businesses ~ 26 Mar 2021
  • The first reason why the dollar may weaken is monetary policy. The Fed implements policies to adjust interest rates. When the Fed implements QE measures or lowers the interest rate to encourage people to borrow money and stimulate the economy, this can weaken the dollar.
  • Since 2008, both conditions are met — interest rates are very low (at an all-time-low most of the time), while the Fed injected trillions of dollars into the financial markets.
World-class economist Robert Reich explains the current economic crisis in America ~ 17 Mar 2021

Behind the corporate bond market's US$10.5 trillion debt 'bubble' ~ 13 Mar 2021
The corporate debt market is where companies go to borrow cash.
And for over a decade, super-low interest rates left over from the 2008 financial crisis have made borrowing easier and easier.
Since then, U.S. companies have regularly offered up bonds for sale, taking advantage of the cheap access to cash.

ECB signals faster money-printing to keep lid on yields ~ 11 Mar 2021
ECB aimed to push down yields close to where they were in December, when Germany’s 10-year yield touched -0.64%.

German yields fall for second day as selloff in bond markets subsides ~ 1 Mar 2021
Yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell five basis points to 1.40% on Monday (Mar 1).
On Thursday (Feb 25), it touched 1.614% , the highest in a year, rocking world markets.
German government bond yields also retreated. Yields on 10-year securities fell to -0.30%.

Yellen drops $1.1 trillion treasury cash pile in a big jolt for money markets ~ 19 Feb 2021
  • With new liquidity about to pour in, it remains to be seen how will it affect equities, risk assets, and more importantly, money markets.
  • Powell has already taken rates down to almost 0%, and now Yellen just announced plans to reduce the stockpile of cash the Treasury has amassed over the last year.
“Mind-boggling liquidity”: Nobody is paying attention to the $1.1 trillion flood about to hit markets ~ 7 Feb 2021

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2304 on: April 05, 2021, 10:14:55 AM »
任志剛指中國應進一步推動人民幣國際化 減對美元依賴 ~ 4 Apr 2021

中伊签署二十五年全面合作协议 绕过美元结算体系? ~ 29 Mar 2021

中東各國紛紛示好,石油將用人民幣結算,美元霸主地位能否維持? ~ 8 Jan 2021

Could US sanctions and closer Middle East ties fuel the rise of China’s petroyuan?

By Karen Yeung
Sat, 3 April 2021

A string of energy-rich economies appear to be moving closer into China's orbit, expanding economic ties and potentially fuelling the rise of the petroyuan, analysts say.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ended a week-long tour on Tuesday of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman, vowing to help protect their core interests against foreign interference amid rising pressure from the United States.

Facing sanctions itself, China could be looking to secure long-term deals with Middle Eastern nations using the yuan as a form of payment so that all parties can circumvent potential restrictions associated with the US dollar payment system, analysts said.

"It would be a policy goal for both China and those Gulf States to be able to use an alternative to the US dollar," said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for the Asia-Pacific at Western Union Business Solutions. "If they do use the petroyuan for circulation through the Middle East, the currency would become more important as part of the global financial system."

In 2018, China launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts in Shanghai, known as the petroyuan, with the aim of internationalising its currency and competing with US petrodollars, which have underpinned the existing system of oil valuation for decades.

The petrodollar dates back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the US dollar was agreed upon to become the new global currency in the post-war monetary system.

In the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed when former president Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and introduced a fiat US dollar-based system. Nixon subsequently struck a deal with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to buy oil and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment.

In return, the Saudis would "recycle" billions of dollars in revenue back into US treasuries, financing American spending.

The deal established the petrodollar system, creating a lifetime of demand for dollars from wealthy Middle Eastern countries based on demand for their crude oil.

Petrodollar hegemony allowed the US to maintain influence over the rest of the world and perpetually finance its current account deficit by issuing dollar-denominated assets at low interest rates.

As the world's largest buyer of oil from Saudi Arabia, China could duplicate the strategy to dictate oil pricing terms, analysts said.

Currently, when China imports from producers as Saudi Arabia, Angola, Russia or Oman, transactions are beholden to dollar valuations, making China vulnerable to the petrodollar system.

"(China can) allocate its oil demand to Saudi Arabia. In exchange, Saudi's will buy better yielding bonds. China will use this capital as part of their 'dual circulation' or domestic focus of growing the middle-class entrants. Hence, more demand for the renminbi," Patrick Eng, a partner at investment firm Sparkill & Co, said in online research recently published by SmartKarma.

The petrodollar's advantage as a reserve currency might be starting to wane amid US sanctions on multiple countries, with regional trade partners or foreign production companies seeking to limit risk exposure to the dollar and dollar-centric monetary system, according to analysts.

And the petroyuan could emerge as an attractive alternative, allowing business to be exclusively conducted in the Chinese currency to safeguard finances from US foreign policy and sanctions.

China and Russia have already been forging rouble-yuan deals to ditch the US dollar and use local currencies in international trade. The share of dollars in Russian exports to China plunged to 39 per cent in 2019 from 75 per cent in 2018, according to data provided by ING Bank, reflecting a shift in invoicing of oil contracts into euros.

Similarly, the share of dollars in Chinese imports to Russia declined to 61% in 2020 from 72% in 2018 , reflecting the increasing roles of the euro and yuan.

Russia's central bank holds around US$68 billion equivalent in yuan in foreign exchange reserves, about 14% of its total, suggesting upside potential for use of the yuan in Russian trade and financial flows.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for Moscow and Beijing to reduce their dependence on the dollar and Western payment systems to push back against what he called the West's ideological agenda.

The timing of the statement coincided with fresh foreign policy tensions for Russia, with the US and European Union discussing a new round of sanctions over cyber attacks and the use of chemical weapons on critics.

Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Bank, said Russia was unlikely to immediately shift to invoicing its oil exports in yuan.

"Another way to assure de-dollarisation is better cooperation in the banking sector. Chinese banks are present on the Russian market, but their share is quite low at the moment," Dolgin said.

The Covid-19 crisis could act as a catalyst in shifting the current geopolitical architecture, helping China promote economic development in oil rich nations that leads to demand for the petroyuan, analysts said.

During his diplomatic tour, Wang said China and the Middle East would boost investment and trading in energy, and also cooperate more on 5G and artificial intelligence. China has so far provided 38 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines to 17 Middle Eastern nations.

China has become Iran's most important commercial partner after the two countries signed a 25-year strategic partnership last week.

The deal is touted as being worth between US$400 billion and US$600 billion, including an expansion of China's presence in Iranian banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China will receive a regular and heavily discounted supply of Iranian oil, although Chinese and the Iranian foreign ministries insist no detailed contract has been signed.

In Saudi Arabia, state giant Saudi Aramco said last month it would ensure China's energy security is its highest priority for the next 50 years, and that Chinese demand was close to pre-pandemic levels.

"This statement does indicate that yuan is likely to be used for the payment for China's future purchase of oil from Saudi Aramco," said Guoxiong Zhang, the director of the Economist Corporate Network in Shanghai. "If that happens, more trading on crude oil will be using yuan."

It's unlikely that we see Saudi Arabia move away from the dollar, given that this would only hurt the relationship between the two countries.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank, said in theory having petroyuan-listed commodity futures available to foreigners would help facilitate oil exports to China being settled in yuan rather than dollars.

But there are still a number of obstacles, including restrictions on the yuan's convertibility and the tricky relationship with the US, Patterson said.

"It's unlikely that we see Saudi Arabia move away from the dollar, given that this would only hurt the relationship between the two countries," Patterson said. "While there is the potential to see some Saudi flows to China transacted in (yuan), I think the USD will remain the preferred currency of choice for the Saudis."

Zhang said China's efforts to grow its offshore yuan markets will also help alleviate limitations with the convertibility of the currency.

The People's Bank of China last week pledged to enhance the yuan's exchange rate flexibility, signalling less policy resistance towards recent movements in the currency.

Dooley, from Western Union Business Solutions, said bilateral agreements between China and oil producing nations that were settled in yuan, as well as an increase in yuan-denominated contracts used for hedging and speculation, could see a significant rise in the petroyuan in the coming decades.

Global trade in 2018 was worth about US$20 billion, but yuan transactions accounted for only about 1.8%. If they doubled to 3.6%, that would mean an extra US$360 billion taken out of the system, Dooley said.

"A year ago we had no idea Covid-19 was about to hit. So the way the world develops can be incredibly unexpected," Dooley said.

"The way that these kinds of big shifts in financial markets tend to occur, is that they take a lot longer to develop than you think. But once they occur, they can occur in a really quick move and you see a regime change very, very quickly."

Offline zuolun

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2305 on: April 07, 2021, 10:50:59 AM »
China will use its digital currency to compete with the USD ~ 25 May 2020

In a first for major economy, China creates its own digital currency ~ 6 Apr 2021
  • The dollar far outstrips all other currencies for use in international foreign-exchange trades, at 88% in the latest rankings from the Bank for International Settlements. The yuan was used in just 4%.
  • Josh Lipsky, a former International Monetary Fund staffer now at the Atlantic Council think tank, said, “Anything that threatens the dollar is a national-security issue. This threatens the dollar over the long term.”
  • The digital yuan could give those the U.S. seeks to penalize a way to exchange money without U.S. knowledge. Exchanges wouldn’t need to use SWIFT, the messaging network that is used in money transfers between commercial banks and that can be monitored by the U.S. government.
  • The chance to weaken the power of American sanctions is central to Beijing’s marketing of the digital yuan and to its efforts to internationalize the yuan more generally. Speaking at a forum last month, China’s Mr. Mu, the central bank official, repeatedly said the digital yuan is aimed at protecting China’s “monetary sovereignty,” including by offsetting global use of the dollar.

China digital currency: US ‘worried’ as it falls ‘behind the curve’ in race for financial technology innovation ~ 16 Mar 2021
The People’s Bank of China have been conducting experiments and tests of its sovereign digital currency for more than five years.
The Biden administration has finally shown support for research into the viability of a digital US dollar for the first time.

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Re: Casino Stocks
« Reply #2306 on: April 08, 2021, 11:50:22 AM »
翟东升再曝中共野心:收割美元霸权 ~ 2 Apr 2021

翟东升:收割美元霸权,为什么说现在是中国百年难遇的机会?~ 2 Apr 2020

中国航母辽宁舰入西太平洋 美罗斯福号驶进南海 台湾需面对周边军事活动常态化? ~ 8 Apr 2021

How China’s digital currency push can boost fintech and the yuan’s global presence ~ 7 Apr 2021
  • China has a huge advantage over other countries with its coming roll-out of the digital yuan – its large captive market. During the past two decades, China has moved from cash to cashless with breathtaking speed.
  • China’s ratio of M0, or measure of cash, to M2, or measure of broad money – a metric used to gauge the usage of cash in the economy – is among the lowest in the world, declining from more than 10% to around 4% in the past two decades. In contrast, the United States’ M0/M2 ratio is around five times that of China’s.
Belt and Road potholes in Central and Eastern Europe ~ 6 Apr 2021
China's infrastructure diplomacy runs into headwinds in central and eastern Europe.