Casino Stocks

[zuolun]

譚德塞變臉欲重查武漢實驗室，中共翻臉；14國抵制世衛報告，譚德塞兩頭不是人；中共專家變身芮成鋼，代表全世界？~ 1 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PES5g0IDPe8

Japan wants further probe into COVID-19 origins | WHO Corona report ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm1x02yQ4X8
• The U.S. and other countries say the WHO report lacked crucial information, access and transparency and further study was warranted.

新冠病毒溯源专家组发表初步研究报告 世卫组织总干事表示“所有的假定仍然都在考虑范围之内” ~ 30 Mar 2021
https://news.un.org/zh/story/2021/03/1081102
• 谭德塞表示，“尽管专家组认定，实验室泄漏是最不可能成立的假说，但针对这一点仍然需要开展更多的调查，可能需要派遣额外的工作组，并涉及相关领域的专门专家，我愿意派遣这样的工作组。”

WHO Report: Wildlife farms, not market, likely source of coronavirus pandemic ~ 29 Mar 2021
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/29/982272319/who-report-wildlife-farms-not-market-likely-source-of-coronavirus-pandemic

• According to the report, data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was not the original source of the outbreak.
• In addition, the report noted that "introduction through a laboratory incident" — a leak from the lab in Wuhan — "was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway."
• The report further suggests that animals in livestock farms in southeast Asia could be "linked to early human cases" and that further study on these farms is needed.

中美疾控中心主任通話內容曝光！美專家斷言：新冠病毒從武漢P4「逃逸」，是中共軍方項目。最可怕的病毒變異已在法國出現。最準預言家告訴你，如何安全度過2021 ~ 28 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6YlbBv6Bys
• 前美国疾病预防与控制中心(CDC)主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德(Robert Redfield)医生说，他相信新冠病毒是从武汉一家实验室逃逸出来的。

Covid-19: Five days that shaped the outbreak ~ 26 Jan 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-55756452
• 30 December 2019: Virus alert
• 31 December: Offers of help
• 1 January 2020: International frustration
• 2 January: Silencing the doctors
• 3 January: Secret memo

港大教授袁國勇BBC受訪 質疑中共瞞疫遭下架 ~ 28 Jul 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoLXJFzfQMw
香港大學微生物學系教授袁國勇，在2020年七月27日接受英國BBC的專訪，他說他早在1月初，就在深圳發現了家庭感染的案例並立即報告當局，不過中共直到20日才承認病毒人傳人，讓他質疑中共確實試圖在掩蓋疫情。

Chinese doctor alleges covid cover-up, says Wuhan market was 'clean already' ~ 27 Jul 2020
https://www.livemint.com/science/health/chinese-doctor-alleges-covid-cover-up-says-wuhan-market-was-clean-already-11595852010340.html
Hong Kong Professor Kwok-Yung Yuen: "When we went to the Huanan supermarket, of course, there was nothing to see because the market was clean already. So, you may say that the crime scene is already disturbed because the supermarket was cleared. We cannot identify any host which is giving the virus to humans."



世卫内部文件显示，中国在关键时刻极力拖延疫情信息披露 ~ 2 Jun 2020
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-delayed-releasing-coronavirus-info-frustrating-who-20200602/5445851.html
美国一直抱怨中国隐瞒疫情真相，没有给世界卫生组织及时提供疫情信息。中国则声称，自己坚持信息透明，一直及时地给世卫组织提供一切必要的信息，而世卫组织也一再赞扬中国政府对新冠病毒疫情反应迅速，及时分享病毒信息，称中国在信息透明方面做出了“令人印象深刻”的努力。

中国疾控中心主任 高福称从未说过不存在人传人 ~ 5 May 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kWNRUqSD_U
• 卫健委高级别专家组组员高福院士。访问中，他对高级别专家组有关“人传人”的判断经过，进行了详细的回溯。
• 他强调，公共卫生专家的工作，仅仅根据经验进行推测是不够的，最重要的是：找到确凿的事实，从而作出有依据的判断。
• 有关高福院士的专业介绍资料显示：他专长于研究包膜病毒，特别是它们如何进入细胞以及在物种之间移动。



世卫组织称暂无数据显示新冠病毒在中国以外持续本地传播 ~ 19 Feb 2020
http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2020-02/19/c_1125595628.htm

2月18日，在瑞士日内瓦，世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞（左）出席例行记者会。



Scientists shouldn't rule out lab as source of coronavirus, New Study says

By Jason Lemon
17 May 2020

A new scientific analysis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has argued that scientists should not rule out the possibility that the virus originated in a laboratory setting, no matter how likely or unlikely that could be.



While U.S. officials and intelligence agencies have held out the possibility of a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China has dismissed the idea as a conspiracy theory.

The scientific community has generally agreed with China's position that the Coronavirus jumped species in nature, probably at a wet market in the city of Wuhan. That view has been in part based on the evidence that the COVID-19 virus was not genetically manipulated.

Scientists who looked at the study at Newsweek's request said that the analysis is unconventional and uses techniques that are unproven. They cautioned against drawing conclusions until more research can corroborate the analysis.

The new study, which has not been peer-reviewed and was published on the site bioRxiv hosted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, notes that the novel virus is "well adapted for humans." It was authored by scientists from the Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Center at the University of British Columbia, the Fusion Genomics Corporation and the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. bioRxiv cautions that studies published on its site should not "be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or be reported in news media as established information."

"Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected," the authors of the study explained in the abstract.

"The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future re-emergence," they warned.

The analysis explains that there is still no clear evidence to point to a precise origin of the virus. The researchers explained, based on the genetic makeup and samples of the virus, it remains unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 adapted inside an intermediary animal host, within a human, or in a laboratory setting. It could have potentially jumped from species to species within a lab.

"Even the possibility that a non-genetically-engineered precursor could have adapted to humans while being studied in a laboratory should be considered, regardless of how likely or unlikely," the authors wrote.

In conclusion, the study cautions that various possibilities for how the outbreak began in humans "means that we need to take precautions against each scenario to prevent re-emergence."

Jonathan Eisen, a professor at the University of California, Davis, tweeted a thread Sunday about the study, after Newsweek published this story. He wrote: "I find this conclusion to be unconvincing for many reasons including: 1) They have not shown their methods work for detecting these patterns 2) Only compare to CoV 3) Not enough testing of alternative hypothesis 4) No strong evidence CoV2 well adapted to humans from start."

"I note - there are some interesting analyses in this preprint but I am really just not convinced that they have shown that they can make the inferences they are making based on these analysis," he added.

As Newsweek reported on April 27, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency updated an assessment of the origins of the novel coronavirus pandemic to suggest that it could have accidentally leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Previously the assessment had concluded that the new virus had "probably occurred naturally."

Scientists and the intelligence community have largely dismissed conspiracy theories that the virus was genetically manipulated. Many scientists have also stressed that it is more likely that the virus arose naturally than that it leaked from a lab, although there is not yet conclusive evidence for either theory.

President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some top Republican lawmakers have quickly jumped behind the theory that the virus could have emerged from a lab leak. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was known to be researching coronaviruses similar to the one that has now caused the pandemic. But Chinese scientists at the facility and Chinese officials have roundly rejected the possibility that a lab leak could have spurred the global outbreak.

Pompeo has said that the U.S. does not have "certainty" about the Wuhan lab theory, but has said that there is "significant evidence that this came from the laboratory." Meanwhile, China has maintained that the virus emerged naturally, with initial analysis suggesting it came from a now infamous wet market in Wuhan.

However, the new study published on bioRxiv explains that from the wet market samples still in existence, it's not possible to determine if there was an intermediary species before the virus jumped to humans. "If intermediate animal hosts were present at the market, no evidence remains in the genetic samples available," the researchers wrote. They conclude that the available market samples were most likely from humans, not animals.

Trump, who is facing significant criticism within the U.S. for his administration's response to the pandemic, has repeatedly blamed China for the novel coronavirus outbreak. He has also suggested that the U.S. will attempt to punish China.

"There are many things we could do," the president told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday morning. "We could cut off the whole relationship."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of Trump's coronavirus task force who serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been less receptive to the Wuhan lab theory.

"If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what's out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated – the way the mutations have naturally evolved," Fauci said in an interview with National Geographic earlier this month.

"A number of very qualified evolutionary biologists have said that everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species," he said.

China has faced significant international criticism for its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Chinese officials initially covered up the outbreak in Wuhan. They have also appeared to be censoring research into the origins of the virus, and German and U.S. intelligence suggests that the World Health Organization (WHO) was pressured by China to downplay the threat posed by COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has attempted to shift the narrative, as it tries to position itself as a global leader in dealing with the pandemic by sending medical supplies to nations around the world.

As research into the origins of the novel coronavirus continues, the global pandemic has already infected nearly 4.7 million people around the world. Of those infected, more 313,000 have died while over 1.7 million have already recovered.

[zuolun]

中国战狼满世界咆啸 重回文革变国际孤狼？(podcast) ~ 23 Mar 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/rc-03232021101340.html

Is China backing Myanmar's generals? ~ 3 Feb 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Wt17lEElNA
• Did China support Myanmar's military in orchestrating a coup? What's in it for Beijing?
• What does Myanmar's military coup mean for India and the rest of the neighbourhood?

姚树洁：中国为啥难有盟友？ ~ 9 Sep 2012
https://www.china-week.com/html/6262.htm
• 经济上，中国已经是大国、强国，没有悬念。
• 外交上，中国却到处楚歌，甚至遭人‘恨’。为何？
• 中国周边，缺朋友，不缺敌人。

UN envoy warns of possible civil war in Myanmar ~ 2 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WaskC-AIKI

Mixed reactions from netizens over Singapore’s non-interference stance on junta violence in Myanmar ~ 1 Apr 2021
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2021/04/01/myanmar-traitors-hounded-in-online-anti-coup-campaign/
• Myanmar's ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been charged with violating the country's Official Secrets Act.
• The new allegation was revealed by her lawyer. An earlier claim of treason could see her barred from political office for life.
• At the same time, protests have continued as demonstrators mark two months since the February coup.

Yoma again extends completion date for Digital Money acquisition to 30 Apr 2021 ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QSIVR2OKVNILU9R7

US orders non-essential personnel out of Myanmar as military escalates protest crackdown ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-orders-non-essential-personnel-out-myanmar-military-escalates-protest-crackdown

India may face heat of US sanctions on Myanmar ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/india-may-face-heat-of-us-sanctions-on-myanmar-232267
The impact of US sanctions on two Myanmar military companies may be lapping Indian shores after Australian human rights lawyers claimed that Adani Group is financially involved with one of the companies.

EU sanctions Myanmar, Germany condemns 'murders' ~ 23 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm9xIBLaboY

Myanmar faces wider business fallout after Kirin retreat ~ 10 Feb 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/myanmar-faces-wider-business-fallout-coup-after-kirin-move

• With the US reiterating plans to renew sanctions, it could cause a rippling effect among businesses, threatening US$5.5 billion in foreign investment in a country that just a few years ago was on the path to democracy.
• Among recent foreign deals, CVC Capital Partners reached an agreement in December to buy Myanmar’s biggest telecommunications tower company for close to US$700 million. The deal for Irrawaddy Green Towers Ltd was the second-biggest in the country, trailing only the acquisition of Myanmar Distillery group by a unit of Thai Beverage PCL.
• Singapore’s sovereign wealth firm GIC Pte and Norway’s Norfund AS bought a 30% stake in Yoma Bank Ltd for 131 billion kyat (US$92.1 million) last April.
• Nations with the most at stake from the instability include Singapore, Myanmar’s largest foreign investor, accounting for almost 34% of approved investment by dollar value, according to a World Bank report in December.

Japan's Kirin ends Myanmar beer tie-up with army-owned partner after coup ~ 5 Mar 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/japans-kirin-terminate-myanmar-beer-alliance
• The move effectively scraps the joint venture called Myanmar Brewery, in which Kirin's controlling stake is valued at up to US$1.7 billion

[zuolun]

Yoma again extends completion date for Digital Money acquisition to 30 Apr 2021 ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QSIVR2OKVNILU9R7

US orders non-essential personnel out of Myanmar as military escalates protest crackdown ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-orders-non-essential-personnel-out-myanmar-military-escalates-protest-crackdown

Yoma ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.108

Yoma closed with a doji @ S$0.141 (+0.002, +1.4%) with 8.64m shares done on 1 Apr 2021.

Immediate support @ S$0.135, immediate resistance @ S$0.145.



Yoma closed @ S$0.141 on 1 Apr 2021.

[zuolun]

「首席观察」千亿基金爆仓 华尔街投行有点慌 金融海啸会再次袭来吗？ ~ 1 Apr 2021
http://www.eeo.com.cn/2021/0401/483552.shtml

• 真真假假的喧嚣声中，一个是堪称全球资产定价之锚的10年美债收益率再创新高达1.774%，一个是美元指数升至93, 美油升至一周高位，达61.77美元/桶。
• 这期间，接二连三的国际大事件也不断，诸如中美高层对话、多数中概股大跌、 千亿对冲基金Archegos保证金违约爆仓、国际投行瑞信、野村等纷纷发声（警示风险）。
• 3月31日，全球股市涨跌不一，道指收跌0.26%，报32,981.55点；但纳指、标准普尔分别报收13,246.87(+1.54%）、3,972.89(+0.36%）；欧洲英国富时、德国DAX、法国CAC，以及A股上证指数、深证成指均收跌。

The breakout of the stock market to record highs is being affirmed by one of the oldest indicators on Wall Street ~ 3 Apr 2021
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-analysis-record-highs-confirmed-dow-theory-indicator-2021-4-1030272468

• Dow Theory is based on the relative price action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
• Since mid-February, the Transportation Average has minted 14 new all-time highs, signaling more gains ahead for the broader market.

What’s next after stock-market bubbles and Archegos chaos mark trading in 1st quarter?

By Mark DeCambre
3 Apr 2021

Will a raucous first quarter of 2021 give way to more bubbliciousness in segments of the U.S. stock-market after blocked trade canals, surges in borrowing costs fueled by spiking bonds yields, and an unmitigated hunger to get rich quick in the coming three months of the year?

No one seems to know, but investors were unruffled by the warning signs sounded by the flameout of Archegos Capital Management last week. The ripple effects of the implosion of the family office of Bill Hwang, a protégé of famed investor Julian Robertson, could deliver a $10 billion hit to the banks that were part of a series of complex bets using heaps of borrowed money made by the family office, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Credit Suisse CS, and Nomura, have said that they expect to incur losses due to market volatility believed to be associated with Archegos. Even Wells Fargo WFC, wrestling with its own reputational dings, was involved in the complex trades but has stated that it doesn’t foresee losses due to the $30 billion unwind of Archegos wagers.

Hwang, a professionally trained, veteran investor, is hardly one to be likened to the collective of individual investors who congregated on Reddit and Discord chat boards to propel shares of so-called meme stocks like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, to breathtaking heights in the first quarter. Yet Hwang reportedly applied a similar playbook to that employed by the retail raiders.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Archegos founder routinely made concentrated bets within his portfolio that made his returns volatile and that he “liked to focus on stocks that were heavily ‘shorted,’ or had a high level of bearish positions,” citing a person familiar with the investment manager’s trades.

If that strategy sounds familiar, that is Reddit investing 101.

And it turns out that otherwise staid family offices have become a much riskier part of the market, embracing “investment strategies used in previous decades by the most aggressive hedge funds,” WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman reports, with 69% of these offices established over the past two decades perhaps as regulatory scrutiny on hedge funds intensified.

To be sure, the Archegos story doesn’t appear to be a redux of Long Term Capital Management, which suffered seismic losses in 1998 that sent shock waves throughout global markets, but the event does come at a precarious time for investors and continues to point to froth building up in the financial system amid interest rates that remain historically low and liquidity that is nearly unceasing.

A separate JPMorgan report dated March 30 said the Archegos blowup does raise eyebrows. “The Archegos events raise questions about leverage in the financial system,” wrote analysts including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

JPMorgan’s conclusion is that hedge fund leverage, in particular, has risen again since 2017 “and currently stands at the highest level since 2007,” but notes that the levels of borrowed funds remain significantly below the historic high levels around the Long Term Capital Management crisis.

Still, MarketWatch also has been curious about investors’ knack for dismissing calamities like Archegos and turbulence fueled by Redditors.

“The market is well positioned to handle things like this with all the liqudiuty being provided by the Fed,” Jeff Buchbinder, equity Strategist at LPL Financial, told MarketWatch in a Friday (Apr 2) interview.

Buchbinder said that the market didn’t perceive either GameStop nor Archegos as systemic risks, and grave concerns about the integrity of financial markets would have been perceived in widening credit spreads, reflecting the differential between what businesses pay to borrow money compared against the government.

Bond yields also maintained an upward trend in the first quarter, as investors continued to rotate out of risk-free debt and into assets that could perform better as the economy recovers from COVID. The 10-year Treasury note yield, 1.719% ended the week at 1.714%, with the bond market closing early at 12 p.m. Eastern in observance of Good Friday (Apr 2).

Buchbinder says that investors are more concerned about the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the outlook for the economy than they are about hedge-fund-like implosions and Redditors.

“Something we haven’t seen is inflation and a lot of people are worried about an inflation scare,” the analyst said.

The expectation for a surge in consumer prices come as the U.S. economy added 916,000 new jobs in March, well above the average forecast analysts surveyed by Dow Jones for 675,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 6% from 6.2%.

Some fear that those healthy figures portend a surge in the jobs market that could compel the Federal Reserve to rethink its projections for when easy-money policies will be normalized, currently at around 2023 and 2024,

“The Fed’s timetable probably has to move up a little but the market never really believed that they would wait until 2024 before raising rates, anyway,” Buchbinder said.

The LPL analyst said that the bigger fear—one that the market may not immediately be ready for—is tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying by as soon as the fall of this year.

Aiding the economic rebound is $1.9 trillion in COVID aid from Congress that is being doled out to small businesses and individuals reeling from the pandemic. President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal, which would also come along with tax hikes, could further juice the economy even as it potentially slows down the bull market in stocks with increased borrowing costs.

“The market will be concerned about the Fed most likely and that could slow this [stock-market] advance as we price in this economic recovery in the spring,” Buchbinder said.

What are investors to do against that backdrop?

LPL is still advising that a healthy dose of value, equities viewed as undervalued versus a metric such as book value, should be in investors’ portfolios but also believes that select growth-oriented stocks, which promise above-average earnings growth, will perform well over the longer term as well.

In fact, Louis Navellier, founder of asset-management firm Navellier & Associates, says that semiconductor companies, despite issues with chips, could be a good bet in 2021.

“High-tech companies that are crucial suppliers to cyclical companies stand to benefit hugely from the economic rebound, arguably more so than the companies they supply,” Navallier wrote in a research note dated April 1.

“The takeaway is that regardless of the ongoing growth versus value debate, the chip and chip equipment sector can claim to be both value and growth,” he writes.

“In the near term, value probably has a little bit of an advantage,” said Buchbinder estimates. The LPL analyst also said that investors should not be fearful of owning bonds as yields climb and prices fall because they still represent protection against bumps in the stock market ahead, particularly if the 10-year yield rise is capped at around 2%.

Durations, however, should be kept short, with LPL advising maturities of three to five years in fixed-income.

On Thursday (Apr 1), with the U.S. stock market closed on Good Friday, the S&P 500 index SPX (+1.18%), clinched its 16th record close of 2021, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA (+0.52%), marked its second-highest finish in history, off less than 0.1% from its all-time closing high at 33,171.37, notched earlier last week. The yield-sensitive Nasdaq Composite COMP (+1.76%), is 4.4% from its Feb. 12 record high.

So, will this Wall Street party last forever ?

“At some point the Fed is going to take away the punchbowl,” said Buchbinder and maybe then events like Archegos will matter more to markets.

How a strong vs. weak dollar impacts U.S. businesses ~ 26 Mar 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-vs-weak-dollar-impacts-160000310.html

• The first reason why the dollar may weaken is monetary policy. The Fed implements policies to adjust interest rates. When the Fed implements QE measures or lowers the interest rate to encourage people to borrow money and stimulate the economy, this can weaken the dollar.
• Since 2008, both conditions are met — interest rates are very low (at an all-time-low most of the time), while the Fed injected trillions of dollars into the financial markets.

World-class economist Robert Reich explains the current economic crisis in America ~ 17 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4QPySEEy9k

Behind the corporate bond market's US$10.5 trillion debt 'bubble' ~ 13 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCmdmOr06pY
• The corporate debt market is where companies go to borrow cash.
• And for over a decade, super-low interest rates left over from the 2008 financial crisis have made borrowing easier and easier.
• Since then, U.S. companies have regularly offered up bonds for sale, taking advantage of the cheap access to cash.

ECB signals faster money-printing to keep lid on yields ~ 11 Mar 2021
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN2B22TY
• ECB aimed to push down yields close to where they were in December, when Germany’s 10-year yield touched -0.64%.

German yields fall for second day as selloff in bond markets subsides ~ 1 Mar 2021
https://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-bonds-idUSL3N2KZ29D
• Yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell five basis points to 1.40% on Monday (Mar 1).
• On Thursday (Feb 25), it touched 1.614% , the highest in a year, rocking world markets.
• German government bond yields also retreated. Yields on 10-year securities fell to -0.30%.



Yellen drops $1.1 trillion treasury cash pile in a big jolt for money markets ~ 19 Feb 2021
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/yellen-drops-1-1-trillion-treasury-cash-pile-in-a-big-jolt-for-money-markets-15572650

• With new liquidity about to pour in, it remains to be seen how will it affect equities, risk assets, and more importantly, money markets.
• Powell has already taken rates down to almost 0%, and now Yellen just announced plans to reduce the stockpile of cash the Treasury has amassed over the last year.

“Mind-boggling liquidity”: Nobody is paying attention to the $1.1 trillion flood about to hit markets ~ 7 Feb 2021
https://www.nxtmine.com/mind-boggling-liquidity-nobody-is-paying-attention-to-the-1-1-trillion-flood-about-to-hit-markets/

[zuolun]

任志剛指中國應進一步推動人民幣國際化 減對美元依賴 ~ 4 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPgajNsOvSQ

中伊签署二十五年全面合作协议 绕过美元结算体系？ ~ 29 Mar 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/cm1-03292021114830.html

中東各國紛紛示好，石油將用人民幣結算，美元霸主地位能否維持？ ~ 8 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1EsUHYeo0

Could US sanctions and closer Middle East ties fuel the rise of China’s petroyuan?

By Karen Yeung
Sat, 3 April 2021

A string of energy-rich economies appear to be moving closer into China's orbit, expanding economic ties and potentially fuelling the rise of the petroyuan, analysts say.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ended a week-long tour on Tuesday of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman, vowing to help protect their core interests against foreign interference amid rising pressure from the United States.

Facing sanctions itself, China could be looking to secure long-term deals with Middle Eastern nations using the yuan as a form of payment so that all parties can circumvent potential restrictions associated with the US dollar payment system, analysts said.

"It would be a policy goal for both China and those Gulf States to be able to use an alternative to the US dollar," said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for the Asia-Pacific at Western Union Business Solutions. "If they do use the petroyuan for circulation through the Middle East, the currency would become more important as part of the global financial system."

In 2018, China launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts in Shanghai, known as the petroyuan, with the aim of internationalising its currency and competing with US petrodollars, which have underpinned the existing system of oil valuation for decades.

The petrodollar dates back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the US dollar was agreed upon to become the new global currency in the post-war monetary system.

In the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed when former president Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and introduced a fiat US dollar-based system. Nixon subsequently struck a deal with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to buy oil and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment.

In return, the Saudis would "recycle" billions of dollars in revenue back into US treasuries, financing American spending.

The deal established the petrodollar system, creating a lifetime of demand for dollars from wealthy Middle Eastern countries based on demand for their crude oil.

Petrodollar hegemony allowed the US to maintain influence over the rest of the world and perpetually finance its current account deficit by issuing dollar-denominated assets at low interest rates.

As the world's largest buyer of oil from Saudi Arabia, China could duplicate the strategy to dictate oil pricing terms, analysts said.

Currently, when China imports from producers as Saudi Arabia, Angola, Russia or Oman, transactions are beholden to dollar valuations, making China vulnerable to the petrodollar system.

"(China can) allocate its oil demand to Saudi Arabia. In exchange, Saudi's will buy better yielding bonds. China will use this capital as part of their 'dual circulation' or domestic focus of growing the middle-class entrants. Hence, more demand for the renminbi," Patrick Eng, a partner at investment firm Sparkill & Co, said in online research recently published by SmartKarma.

The petrodollar's advantage as a reserve currency might be starting to wane amid US sanctions on multiple countries, with regional trade partners or foreign production companies seeking to limit risk exposure to the dollar and dollar-centric monetary system, according to analysts.

And the petroyuan could emerge as an attractive alternative, allowing business to be exclusively conducted in the Chinese currency to safeguard finances from US foreign policy and sanctions.

China and Russia have already been forging rouble-yuan deals to ditch the US dollar and use local currencies in international trade. The share of dollars in Russian exports to China plunged to 39 per cent in 2019 from 75 per cent in 2018, according to data provided by ING Bank, reflecting a shift in invoicing of oil contracts into euros.

Similarly, the share of dollars in Chinese imports to Russia declined to 61% in 2020 from 72% in 2018 , reflecting the increasing roles of the euro and yuan.

Russia's central bank holds around US$68 billion equivalent in yuan in foreign exchange reserves, about 14% of its total, suggesting upside potential for use of the yuan in Russian trade and financial flows.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for Moscow and Beijing to reduce their dependence on the dollar and Western payment systems to push back against what he called the West's ideological agenda.

The timing of the statement coincided with fresh foreign policy tensions for Russia, with the US and European Union discussing a new round of sanctions over cyber attacks and the use of chemical weapons on critics.

Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Bank, said Russia was unlikely to immediately shift to invoicing its oil exports in yuan.

"Another way to assure de-dollarisation is better cooperation in the banking sector. Chinese banks are present on the Russian market, but their share is quite low at the moment," Dolgin said.

The Covid-19 crisis could act as a catalyst in shifting the current geopolitical architecture, helping China promote economic development in oil rich nations that leads to demand for the petroyuan, analysts said.

During his diplomatic tour, Wang said China and the Middle East would boost investment and trading in energy, and also cooperate more on 5G and artificial intelligence. China has so far provided 38 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines to 17 Middle Eastern nations.

China has become Iran's most important commercial partner after the two countries signed a 25-year strategic partnership last week.

The deal is touted as being worth between US$400 billion and US$600 billion, including an expansion of China's presence in Iranian banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China will receive a regular and heavily discounted supply of Iranian oil, although Chinese and the Iranian foreign ministries insist no detailed contract has been signed.

In Saudi Arabia, state giant Saudi Aramco said last month it would ensure China's energy security is its highest priority for the next 50 years, and that Chinese demand was close to pre-pandemic levels.

"This statement does indicate that yuan is likely to be used for the payment for China's future purchase of oil from Saudi Aramco," said Guoxiong Zhang, the director of the Economist Corporate Network in Shanghai. "If that happens, more trading on crude oil will be using yuan."

It's unlikely that we see Saudi Arabia move away from the dollar, given that this would only hurt the relationship between the two countries.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank, said in theory having petroyuan-listed commodity futures available to foreigners would help facilitate oil exports to China being settled in yuan rather than dollars.

But there are still a number of obstacles, including restrictions on the yuan's convertibility and the tricky relationship with the US, Patterson said.

"It's unlikely that we see Saudi Arabia move away from the dollar, given that this would only hurt the relationship between the two countries," Patterson said. "While there is the potential to see some Saudi flows to China transacted in (yuan), I think the USD will remain the preferred currency of choice for the Saudis."

Zhang said China's efforts to grow its offshore yuan markets will also help alleviate limitations with the convertibility of the currency.

The People's Bank of China last week pledged to enhance the yuan's exchange rate flexibility, signalling less policy resistance towards recent movements in the currency.

Dooley, from Western Union Business Solutions, said bilateral agreements between China and oil producing nations that were settled in yuan, as well as an increase in yuan-denominated contracts used for hedging and speculation, could see a significant rise in the petroyuan in the coming decades.

Global trade in 2018 was worth about US$20 billion, but yuan transactions accounted for only about 1.8%. If they doubled to 3.6%, that would mean an extra US$360 billion taken out of the system, Dooley said.

"A year ago we had no idea Covid-19 was about to hit. So the way the world develops can be incredibly unexpected," Dooley said.

"The way that these kinds of big shifts in financial markets tend to occur, is that they take a lot longer to develop than you think. But once they occur, they can occur in a really quick move and you see a regime change very, very quickly."

[zuolun]

China will use its digital currency to compete with the USD ~ 25 May 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2020/05/25/china-will-use-its-digital-currency-to-compete-with-the-usd/

In a first for major economy, China creates its own digital currency ~ 6 Apr 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-creates-its-own-digital-currency-a-first-for-major-economy-11617634118

• The dollar far outstrips all other currencies for use in international foreign-exchange trades, at 88% in the latest rankings from the Bank for International Settlements. The yuan was used in just 4%.
• Josh Lipsky, a former International Monetary Fund staffer now at the Atlantic Council think tank, said, “Anything that threatens the dollar is a national-security issue. This threatens the dollar over the long term.”
• The digital yuan could give those the U.S. seeks to penalize a way to exchange money without U.S. knowledge. Exchanges wouldn’t need to use SWIFT, the messaging network that is used in money transfers between commercial banks and that can be monitored by the U.S. government.
• The chance to weaken the power of American sanctions is central to Beijing’s marketing of the digital yuan and to its efforts to internationalize the yuan more generally. Speaking at a forum last month, China’s Mr. Mu, the central bank official, repeatedly said the digital yuan is aimed at protecting China’s “monetary sovereignty,” including by offsetting global use of the dollar.

China digital currency: US ‘worried’ as it falls ‘behind the curve’ in race for financial technology innovation ~ 16 Mar 2021
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2021/03/672_305646.html
• The People’s Bank of China have been conducting experiments and tests of its sovereign digital currency for more than five years.
• The Biden administration has finally shown support for research into the viability of a digital US dollar for the first time.

[zuolun]

翟东升再曝中共野心：收割美元霸权 ~ 2 Apr 2021
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/21/3/24/n12833649.htm
• 翟东升在视频中建议中共利用疫情和一带一路来推动人民币国际化，取代“美国梦”。
• 翟东升新解“一带一路”：中共输出“强政府”争夺世界中心。

翟东升：收割美元霸权，为什么说现在是中国百年难遇的机会？~ 2 Apr 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2U7kTOL62U

中国航母辽宁舰入西太平洋 美罗斯福号驶进南海 台湾需面对周边军事活动常态化？ ~ 8 Apr 2021
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-56659815
• “辽宁号”航母4月4日通过冲绳与宫古岛的海域，南下航入西太平洋。



How China’s digital currency push can boost fintech and the yuan’s global presence ~ 7 Apr 2021
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3128475/how-chinas-digital-currency-push-can-boost-fintech-and-yuans-global

• China has a huge advantage over other countries with its coming roll-out of the digital yuan – its large captive market. During the past two decades, China has moved from cash to cashless with breathtaking speed.
• China’s ratio of M0, or measure of cash, to M2, or measure of broad money – a metric used to gauge the usage of cash in the economy – is among the lowest in the world, declining from more than 10% to around 4% in the past two decades. In contrast, the United States’ M0/M2 ratio is around five times that of China’s.

Belt and Road potholes in Central and Eastern Europe ~ 6 Apr 2021
https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/april-2021/belt-road-central-eastern-europe
• China's infrastructure diplomacy runs into headwinds in central and eastern Europe.

[zuolun]

联线维吾尔族青年阿不都热合曼：习近平在新疆干了什么? ~ 28 Feb 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssy7PEwQe7o

差了100万人?! 中共统计维族人口前后不一 ~ 4 Apr 2021
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/21/4/3/n12856203.htm

• 图为新疆重要年份分民族人口数表，第一栏为维族数据，2018年标示1167.86万人，与中共官员近日引用的1271.84万人，明显有100多万的差距。(新疆自治区统计局)

Chinese statistics reveal plummeting births in Xinjiang during crackdown on Uyghurs ~ 27 Mar 2021
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/chinese-statistics-reveal-plummeting-births-xinjiang-during

• According to the China Statistical Yearbook 2020, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, the birthrate in Xinjiang last year was only 8.14 births per 1,000 people.
• That is little more than half the figure for 2017, when the birthrate was 15.88 births per 1,000 people.

Xinjiang records sharp drop in birth rate amid growing focus on Uyghur genocide ~ 1 Mar 2021
https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/mar/01/xinjiang-records-sharp-drop-in-birth-rate-amid-growing-focus-on-uyghur-genocide-2270577.html

• Population growth rate in the Xinjiang shrank by two-thirds from 2017 to 2019, dropping from 11.40% to 6.13% in the first year, and to 3.69% in the second.

US declares China has committed genocide in its treatment of Uygurs in Xinjiang ~ 20 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiE41-cEFbo

• US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China of “genocide and crimes against humanity” for Beijing’s treatment of Uygur Muslims in the far-western region of Xinjiang. Pompeo issued the statement on January 19, 2021, his last full day as America’s top diplomat.
• Antony Blinken, president-elect Joe Biden’s nominee to take over as next secretary of state, indicated later the same day that the Trump administration’s hardline stance toward Beijing appears set to continue once the new administration starts on January 20.

[zuolun]

BBC: 新疆事件：被中國制裁的英國議員「中共不怕美英，就怕中國人民」~ 12 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cAjnj27Nrg

Biden Secretary of State condemns China’s ‘acts of genocide' against Muslim uyghurs ~ 11 Apr 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/04/11/biden-secretary-of-state-condemns-chinas-acts-of-genocide-against-muslim-uyghurs

• Blinken also called on governments around the world, including the United States, to take "concrete actions" to ensure that no companies are providing China with products or services that facilitate its repression of the Uyghur population.
• Asked whether boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing was on the table, Blinken said the U.S. is "not there yet" and that a decision to do so one year out would be "premature," though he did say the State Department is focused on talking and consulting with its allies about their concerns.

BBC: 新疆事件：被中國制裁的英國御用大律師「我非常喜歡中國，但會繼續為人權發聲」~ 5 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC32Agb2bJM

前驻英大使刘晓明任新职 点赞色情视频丑事挥之不去 ~ 12 Apr 2021
https://www.soundofhope.org/post/494189
• 年届65岁的中共前驻英大使刘晓明近日转任中国的朝鲜半岛事务特别代表。
• 刘晓明今年1月下旬已证实自己将离任，随后有关其在推特上点赞色情视频的丑事一直被网友盯住不放。

劉曉明：新疆沒有所謂的集中營－ BBC News 中文 ~ 21 Jul 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnbsUUU_zU4
• 中國駐英國大使劉曉明在BBC《安德魯·馬爾秀》（Andrew Marr Show）節目中表示，在中國，維族人與其他民族一樣，在法律下享受同等待遇。



Leaked video shows hundreds of blindfolded and bound men in Xinjiang ~ 8 Oct 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPdiQy2mkgM
• A drone video appearing to show hundreds of blindfolded men being led from a train in China has raised new concerns over the ongoing crackdown on Muslim Uyghurs in the far western region of Xinjiang.

新疆 : 新讲 Xinjiang : A New Explanation ~ 18 Sep 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGYoeJ5U7cQ
• 无人机新疆拍摄画面 数百囚犯遭蒙眼押送引关注。

[zuolun]

为什么华为必须死？华为越强大中国人越悲惨；中美贸易战、科技战的本质 ~ 6 Jul 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q10LKJi-uG4
• The West bet that China would head towards democracy and the market economy. The gamble has failed.

中共国企军师臧其超：中国40年发展全靠「抄襲」 ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBBCdGrAhjA
• “我们是野蛮抄袭，野蛮复制，什么知识财产权，什么专利技术，搞了再说。可是突然间一回头，发现两件事情出现，第一，美国发现了，不让再抄了。第二，我们自己也发现了，咱已经抄到第一排了。”

中共專家自認野蠻抄襲進世界第一排 ~ 28 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V68Y0VB4JSo
• CCP Expert: We copy barbarically into the world's first row.

一個很多中國人不知道的真相：華為及其5G的崛起，並非靠自己的科研與創新，而是靠竊取一家加拿大有百年歷史的世界頂尖電信巨頭北電的技術 ~  8 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlwZhAGKlvs

[zuolun]

如果中国有新闻自由...... ~ 4 May 2020
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%A6%82%E6%9E%9C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%9C%89%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1/av-53322664
中国如果有新闻自由的话，不但可以已经找到病毒来源，当初也不会有这么多中国人病亡牺牲。

来生不做中国人 ~ 2 Dec 2019
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2156106.html
• “如果有来生，你愿不愿意再做中国人？

网易调查，64%的人「来生不愿再做中国人」，结果网易主编被撤职。 ~ 20 Sep 2006
https://www.voachinese.com/a/a-21-w2006-09-20-voa27-63056412/1044975.html

「百姓故事」大陸企業家揭露中共政府的騙局和虛假數字：中共官員必須要足夠流氓！企業被迫在政府的腐敗中生存 ~ 17 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOF3Owl2tig

如果能有來生，絕不再做中國人，因為我們不再被當作人！ ~ 13 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ9ElpNWqig
• 如果能有來生，絕不再做中國人。因为这片土地上，我们已不再是人。多么痛苦而绝望的话语，生为中国人不再有一丝自豪光荣感……

From 'perfect Chinese daughter' to Communist Party critic, why Vicky Xu is exposing China to scrutiny ~ 10 Mar 2021
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-09/vicky-xu-exposing-chinas-human-rights-abuses/11954794
• Vicky Xu: "If something happens to me you know I've been murdered."



直言中國是個「充斥謊言的地方」惹毛中共　金球獎導演趙婷《浪跡天地》傳大陸撤檔 ~ 9 Mar 2021
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/zhao-03092021023225.html
• 趙婷：「在我中國成長的年代，那裡是個充斥謊言的地方」。（It goes back to when I was a teenager in China, being in a place where there are lies everywhere.）

[zuolun]

Malaysia, 10 others placed under US monitoring list for currency practices ~ 17 Apr 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-10-others-placed-under-us-monitoring-list-currency-practices

• Malaysia is among 11 economies placed under the US Department of Treasury’s monitoring list of major trading partners that merit close attention to their currency practices following the Treasury’s review and assessment of 20 major US trading partners' policies during 2020.
• The 11 economies include China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Ireland, Italy, India, Singapore, Thailand and Mexico.

Monetary Authority of Singapore keeps Singdollar policy unchanged on low core inflation outlook ~ 14 Apr 2021
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/mas-keeps-singdollar-policy-unchanged-on-low-core-inflation-outlook

• MAS left unchanged the Singapore dollar's rate of appreciation at 0% per annum of its policy band.
• The width of the policy band and the level at which it is centred will also be unchanged.

Does China have a role in Bitcoin’s rise? ~ 10 Jan 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2021/01/10/does-china-have-a-role-in-bitcoins--rise

• The Chinese currency, out of all the G10 currencies, has the strongest statistical correlation to BTC over the last 12 months, at around 84%. That means that as the RMB gets stronger against the dollar, so does Bitcoin, 84% of the time. When Bitcoin rises, the RMB is rising right along with it. The euro has a 74% to 75% correlation with Bitcoin. The Russian ruble has a 25% correlation.
• The Chinese government wants to promote the digital yuan before anyone else. They see the potential of a new payment and clearance system in the digital currency era. It may substitute the current Swift system, which tracks interbank transactions and is led by the U.S.
• China’s currency is strong and getting stronger. Moreover, its central bank has been moving on a digital form of its currency for at least three years. They lead on this within the big and medium-sized emerging markets. Even though Beijing has a strong resistance to cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, they have taken the part of blockchain technology that is beneficial to their country's development. Bitcoin, in China at the moment, is rising with the fortunes of a stronger yuan and the digital yuan experiments.

Crypto futures saw record $10b worth of liquidations on Sunday ~ 18 Apr 2021
https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-futures-saw-record-10b-worth-of-liquidations-on-sunday
• Record futures liquidations show leverage was excessively skewed bullish.

China’s Xinjiang blackout and Bitcoin hashrate correction caused BTC price crash ~ 18 Apr 2021
https://coinmarketcap.com/headlines/news/chinas-xinjiang-blackout-and-bitcoin-hashrate-correction-caused-btc-price-crash/
• It’s no less than a major bloodbath in the crypto market as the Bitcoin (BTC) price is down 8.5% tanking below $57,000 levels. At press time, BTC is trading at a price of $$56,971 with a market cap of $1.089 trillion. This solid price crash resulted in nearly $10 billion in Bitcoin liquidations in an hour’s time.

How accidents in Chinese coal mines are affecting bitcoin mining ~ 18 Apr 2021
https://www.coindesk.com/chinese-coal-mines-accidents-affecting-bitcoin-mining
• The Bitcoin hashrate is down 40% today, as a result of the Xinjiang blackout. The explosions took nearly a quarter of Bitcoin's hashrate offline, but the network is operating normally and these miners could be back online in as soon as a week.

[zuolun]

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.” ― Abraham Lincoln

“Break their lineage, break their roots” ~ 19 Apr 2021
https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/19/break-their-lineage-break-their-roots/chinas-crimes-against-humanity-targeting
• Break their lineage, break their roots, break their connections, and break their origins. Completely shovel up the roots of “two-faced people,” dig them out, and vow to fight these two-faced people until the end. — Maisumujiang Maimuer, Chinese religious affairs official, August 10, 2017, on a Xinhua Weibo page

新疆種族滅絕大溯源，禍起蘇聯解體？再教育營的「轉化」意味著什麼？中共在新疆試驗最徹底維穩 ~ 4 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmwH4fAU3ds
• 中歐制裁戰讓新疆再度成為大眾焦點。新疆究竟發生了什麼？為什麼習近平要徹底改變歷史沿襲的「區域自治」民族政策？
• 中共一直在追求的「同質化」實質是什麼？中共要讓少數民族「融入中華民族」背後有令人恐怖的真相。

As tensions with the west escalate, China is flexing its economic muscle by taking aim at major brands including H&M, Nike and Adidas. ~ 31 Mar 2021
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/western-brands-including-hm-and-nike-face-growing-chinese-backlash-over-xinjiang-cotton-stance/news-story/f0bf22f7105628702befe36d5dca6246

新疆棉問題只是煙霧彈，這一波“新義和團運動”操作非同一般，中共心中另有盤算 ~ 28 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2b6_vWfJWI
习近平：“中国已经可以平视这个世界了！”

Western sanctions on China over Xinjiang trigger furious response ~ 23 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lovZvHB7rAE
• The United States, the European Union, UK and Canada have jointly placed sanctions on Chinese officials for human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region. Beijing in turn issued sanctions on several European politicians. Human rights groups have accused the Chinese government of abuses against Uighurs detained in camps in Xinjiang but Beijing has denied all allegations.

Inside Xinjiang’s secret detention camps (360/VR) | Reeducated  ~ 19 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGUyo5dxke8
• Survival stories from three former prisoners who were detained in a Chinese “reëducation” camp.

Uyghurs for sale: ‘Re-education’, forced labour and surveillance beyond Xinjiang ~ 1 Mar 2021
https://xjdp.aspi.org.au/explainers/uyghurs-for-sale/

Satellite images show China has bulldozed Uygur burial sites in Xinjiang ~ 17 Oct 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaS8raolXWo
• Satellite image analysis reportedly shows that China has flattened dozens of Uygur graveyards in Xinjiang, the autonomous region in the country’s far west, since 2014. The report, from the news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP) and non-profit satellite imagery analysts Earthrise Alliance, said the Chinese government exhumed and bulldozed the burial sites, and that most of the graveyards were cleared from 2017 to 2019.

Where did the one million figure for detentions in Xinjiang’s camps come from? ~ 8 Jan 2019
https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/features/where-did-one-million-figure-detentions-xinjiangs-camps-come

• Two key studies independently arrived around the one million mark, by using limited data samples to estimate what percentage of the ethnic minority Muslim population is detained.
• Both studies arrive at a detention rate of 10% —at least in some areas of Xinjiang—suggesting that just over one million of the region’s 11 million ethnic Uighur population could be in the camps.

China targets prominent Uighur intellectuals to erase an ethnic identity ~ 7 Jan 2019
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20190107/china-xinjiang-uighur-intellectuals/en-us/

• The Chinese government has described the detentions as a job training program aimed at providing employment opportunities for some of the country’s poorest people. But a list of more than 100 detained Uighur scholars compiled by exiles includes many prominent poets and writers, university heads and professors of everything from anthropology to Uighur history.
• “The fact that highly educated intellectuals and academics and scientists and software engineers are being held in these facilities is one of the best counterarguments to authorities’ claims that this is some kind of educational program meant to benefit Uighurs,” said Maya Wang, a Hong Kong-based researcher for Human Rights Watch.

How China is leveraging foreign technology to dominate the South China SEA ~ 19 Apr 2021
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/special/china-foreign-tech-scs/

• Chinese government procurement contracts reveal that Sansha City — which administers China’s outposts in the Paracel and Spratly islands — has acquired or plans to acquire hardware, equipment, software, and materials from at least 25 different companies based in the U.S. and other countries.
• These items have applications in maritime law enforcement, information security, land and sea surveillance, and other areas.
• In total, 10 Chinese party-state entities associated with Sansha City have acquired or currently plan to acquire up to 66 items worth over ¥6,540,000 (US$930,000) for use in the South China Sea, according to 13 government contracts and other associated documents.
• All of these contracts were signed between late 2016 and early 2021, with the majority of items coming from contracts inked in 2020.

The cost of foreign technology acquired by Sansha City broken down by country and year. Not every contract provided cost data for every item; "reported cost" refers to items that did indeed have a specific yuan value.



Secrecy and abuse claims haunt China’s solar factories in Xinjiang ~ 13 Apr 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-xinjiang-solar/

• In the wilderness of the Gobi Desert sit two factories that churn out vast quantities of polysilicon, the raw material in billions of solar panels all over the world.
• It’s a four-hour drive from Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang region at the center of China’s crackdown on Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.
• The only structures that rise up among miles of rolling snow-covered fields are the chimneys of coal-fired power plants, belching white smoke.

The solar industry's Xinjiang problem ~ 13 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVMTwx3sHo

• The world’s solar power surge depends on polysilicon from factories in Xinjiang, the region at the center of China’s crackdown on Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.
• No one really knows what’s going on inside the facilities.

[zuolun]

'This is not a concentration camp': Analyst Victor Gao on China's Uighur prisons ~ 19 Dec 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnpCOcBBVDA

How China spins the Xinjiang story to the Chinese ~ 8 Sep 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFAhBl723u4

习近平对新疆下死手，两名维吾尔族高官死缓 ~ 8 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uwf56iEqPIk

A survivor's story of China's crackdown on ethnic minorities in Xinjiang (podcast) ~ 6 Apr 2021
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/06/984829966/a-survivors-story-of-chinas-crackdown-on-ethnic-minorities-in-xinjiang

吾尔开希：中国打压新疆维吾尔族异见声音 “天安门”精神已被消灭？ ~ 25 Aug 2020
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-53891043
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjwArV6OKHI
• 中國竭力監控和塑造其人民的生活，最極端的例子在新疆，那裡是超過1000萬穆斯林維吾爾人的家園；但透過極權控制來達至穩定的方針見諸全國。

吾尔开希: 当时学生走上街头，是为了要求政府贯彻承诺 ~ 2 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyA4bhEqQMs
• "八十年代是中国非常精彩的十年,中国走向改革开放，也是共产党的口号。
• 但是这个改革开放，只是共产党只愿意很被动地做经济改革。
• 为了得到人民的支持，向中国老百姓做了大量的承诺，会让中国走向更开放。
• 当时的学生走上街头，就是为了要求政府贯彻自己的承诺。

[zuolun]

SGX sees boom in retail investments. But can it last? ~ 9 Feb 2021
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/sgx-boom-in-retail-investments-ipo-covid-19-12953564
• The SGX is witnessing a strong retail boom during the COVID-19 pandemic that is helping to drive up liquidity and profits.
• The last time the S'pore stock market saw such a major surge in retail participation was probably during the 1993 IPO of Singtel.

SGX H1 net profit up 12% on higher revenue from all three businesses ~ 22 Jan 2021
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sgx-h1-net-profit-up-12-on-higher-revenue-from-all-three-businesses
• SGX posted a net profit of S$239.8m for the half year ended Dec 31, 2020, up 12% from $213.3m a year ago.

SGX ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel

SGX closed with a bearish harami @ S$10.47 (-0.12, -1.1%) with 3.63m shares done on 20 Apr 2021.

Immediate support @ S$10.39, immediate resistance @ S$10.64.

SGX ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel

SGX closed with a white marubozu @ S$9.03 (+0.44, +5.1%) with high volume done at 9.50m shares on 18 Sep 2020.

Immediate support @ S$8.65, immediate resistance @ S$9.30.



SGX (weekly) ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel ~ 18 Sep 2020

[zuolun]

DBS picks up 13% stake in Shenzhen bank for S$1.08bn (US$800mn) ~ 21 Apr 2021
https://bondevalue.com/news/dbs-picks-up-13-stake-in-shenzhen-bank-for-800-million/
• DBS is also bidding for Citigroup’s consumer business in Asia after Citi revealed they were exiting 13 consumer banking markets which includes China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.

DBS ~ Trading in an upward sloping channel

DBS gapped down and closed with a spinning top @ S$28.40 (-0.62, -2.1%) with 5.72m shares done on 21 Apr 2021.

Immediate support @ S$27.30, immediate resistance @ S$28.94.



DBS closed @ S$28.40 on 21 Apr 2021.

[zuolun]

中国的软实力 与 网络“五毛” (China’s soft power and the 50 Cent Brigade)

Chinese YouTuber Liziqi (李子柒) earns Guinness World Records Title ~ 12 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH5zTQlYLSE

China's beautiful lie ~ 30 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dlZktX3YD0
Beauty is only skin deep, but ugly goes clean to the bone.

China’s soft power has ‘collapsed globally’ due to ‘anger and hysteria’ ~ 22 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVQhJ_zbhL0

方舟子时评：从温家宝文章被禁想到的——影帝好过皇帝 ~ 22 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz89vgUuWjQ
• 中国前任总理温家宝在《澳门导报》发表了一篇怀念其母亲的文章，传到内地后被禁。

中国前总理温家宝撰文忆母谈公平正义 遭禁止转发 ~ 19 Apr 2021
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-56800702
• 温家宝：“我心目中的中国应该是一个充满公平正义的国家，那里永远有对人心、人道和人的本质的尊重，永远有青春、自由、奋斗的气质。”



事到如今，才真正看懂了李子柒的视频 ~ 19 Feb 2020
https://www.ellechina.com/celeb/gossip/a30991715/liziqi-20220219/
• “看李子柒的视频，才发现她镜头里带出的“真”与“美”才是生活本来应该有的样子。”



China's super secret weapon ~ 6 Feb 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITEJDcFVkew
• China's unstoppable and most effective weapon against the Western World...

Traitors working for Communist Chinese Government? ~ 17 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-kjSIqcGuA

China’s 50-cent army fabricates 450 million fake posts a year to spread lies and hatred ~ 11 Jan 2021
https://epochtimes.today/chinas-50-cent-army-its-450-million-fake-posts-and-the-life-and-death-of-the-ccp/

Leaked docs expose China’s secret internet troll ops amid CCP virus pandemic ~ 12 Apr 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZCnLveJ-Ko

Chinese internet trolls get paid 50 cents for every comment ~ 28 Sep 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCnnPf2OnHo

China's professional trolls, the 50 Cent Brigade! ~ 15 Oct 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFdr4gWsGog

• China's 50 Cent Brigade, sometimes called the 50 Cent Party, are essential professional trolls.
• It's their job to trawl through websites, both inside and outside of China, and monitor what the public is saying about the regime and draw the conversation away from anything critical of China by instead criticizing the United States, Western involvement in international affairs, or by pointing out the flaws of democracy.
• And since China employs 2 million of Internet monitors, more than the 1.5 million the People's Liberation Army, this is clearly a new form of cyber warfare.
• The weapons are hacking or virus, but a careful and systematic propaganda push. And Snoopybabe.

[zuolun]

W.H.O's hypocrisy on naming virus variants ~ 22 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs13HP3dY30

• Last year, the W.H.O rejected linking country and city names with the virus.
• Now it is silent when variants are being named after their country of origin.

Proof Wuhan lab manipulated coronaviruses ~ 2 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrQxWUYHAvc

• Peter Daszak and the WHO was tasked with going to Wuhan to investigate the origins of the novel Coronavirus.
• They all but absolved the Chinese government of their hand in the outbreak.
• However, there was a lot going on in regards to coronaviruses found in China prior to the outbreak.

TWiV 615: Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance ~ 19 May 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdYDL_RK--w

• They knew everything.
• This entire pandemic could have been prevented.
• This man has blood on his hands.

Scientists inject human cells into Monkey's embryo ~ 21 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzTwyzAeIxM
• U.S. Scientists recently tried creating the world's first Human-Monkey Chimera.
• They injected Human cells into the embryo of a monkey.
• What is wrong with people?

Scientists have created human-monkey embryos, and that's ethically ok ~ 15 Apr 2021
https://reason.com/2021/04/15/scientists-have-created-human-monkey-embryos-and-thats-ethically-ok/
• Scientists have created the world's first monkey embryos containing human cells in an attempt to investigate how the two types of cell develop alongside each other. The embryos, which were derived from a macaque and then injected with human stem cells in the lab, were allowed to grow for 20 days before being destroyed.

[zuolun]

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

Lab-Leak hypothesis could reveal epic screwup of US, Fauci and China ~ 8 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbKll37uA5U

• Anthony Fauci is currently the Chief Medical Advisor to President Joe Biden, officially appointed in 2021



The genetic engineering genie is out of the bottle ~ 11 Sep 2020
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/11/crispr-pandemic-gene-editing-virus/

• The next pandemic could be bioengineered in someone’s garage using cheap and widely available technology.
• To design a virus, a bio researcher’s first step is to obtain the genetic information of an existing pathogen—such as one of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold—which could then be altered to create something more dangerous.
• In the 1970s, the first genetic sequencing of a bacteriophage took weeks of effort and cost millions of dollars just to determine its 5,386 nucleotides, the building blocks of genetic information.
• Today, sequencing the 3,000,000,000 base pairs that make up the human genome, which dictates the construction and maintenance of a human being, can be done in a few hours for about $1000 in the United States.

UNC epidemiology study: New SARS-like virus may be nearly ready to infect humans ~ 15 Mar 2016
https://sph.unc.edu/sph-news/unc-epidemiology-study-new-sars-like-virus-may-be-nearly-ready-to-infect-humans/

• A study led by researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill found that a SARS-like virus known as WIV1-CoV, which is found in horseshoe bats, could bind to the same receptors as SARS-CoV and replicate in human cells without the need for adaptation.
• Thought to be a critical barrier, the results indicate that bat populations maintain SARS-like viruses poised to reemerge in humans.
• The study, titled “SARS-like WIV1-CoV poised for human emergence,” was published in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). The study’s primary investigator is Ralph Baric, PhD, professor of epidemiology at UNC’s Gillings School of Global Public Health.

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence ~ 09 Nov 2015
https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

• The emergence of SARS-CoV heralded a new era in the cross-species transmission of severe respiratory illness with globalization leading to rapid spread around the world and massive economic impact.
• Although public health measures were able to stop the SARS-CoV outbreak, recent metagenomics studies have identified sequences of closely related SARS-like viruses circulating in Chinese bat populations that may pose a future threat. However, sequence data alone provides minimal insights to identify and prepare for future prepandemic viruses.
• Therefore, to examine the emergence potential (that is, the potential to infect humans) of circulating bat CoVs, we built a chimeric virus encoding a novel, zoonotic CoV spike protein—from the RsSHC014-CoV sequence that was isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats—in the context of the SARS-CoV mouse-adapted backbone.

Bill Gates says no to sharing vaccine formulas to developing world ~ 28 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tropM4cajFw
• The total net worth of the nation’s 651 billionaires rose from $2.95 trillion on March 18 to $4.01 trillion on Dec. 7, a leap of 36%, based on Forbes billionaires.



唐靖遠：英媒踢爆中共國家級計劃：石正麗合作軍方！中共軍方生物戰要員浮出；黨媒亮刀 ~ 27 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eQn-AEc3YM

新聞大家談：英媒揭武漢病毒所新線索，4關鍵人物曾涉「暗黑」研究；大破解 美軍德特里克堡「洩漏傳毒」？譚德賽要查實驗室 中共外交部翻臉 ~ 26 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfymHcfxjaU

Worrying new clues about the origins of Covid: How scientists at Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses ~ 25 Apr 2021
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9507749/How-scientists-Wuhan-lab-helped-Chinese-army-secret-project-animal-viruses.html

• Scientists at Wuhan lab were on massive project investigating animal viruses.
• Documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday have revealed a nationwide scheme.
• It was being directed by leading state body, which was launched nine years ago.
• Its aim was to find new viruses and detect 'dark matter' of biology involved in spreading disease - alongside military officials, despite denials of any such links.

Colonel Cao Wuchun, a WIV adviser



Major General Chen Wei, China's top biodefence expert



Was COVID-19 made inside a Chinese lab? ~ 14 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgTeNFIY-b0
• Under investigation: China and the virus (2021)

On the anniversary of the pandemic, considering the bioweapon hypothesis ~ 11 Mar 2021
https://dnascience.plos.org/2021/03/11/on-the-anniversary-of-the-pandemic-considering-the-bioweapon-hypothesis/

Made in China ~ 11 Oct 2020
https://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/2020/10/01/made-in-china.html
• Li-Meng Yan: "Everyone deserves to know the truth."

SARS-CoV-2 is an unrestricted bioweapon: A truth revealed through uncovering a large-scale, organized scientific fraud ~ 8 Oct 2020
https://zenodo.org/record/4073131



Sources believe coronavirus outbreak originated in Wuhan lab as part of China's efforts to compete with US ~ 15 Apr 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

• 习近平：“中国可以平视世界了!”

[zuolun]

新冠病毒的总指挥官习近平: ‘我亲自指挥，亲自部署’ ~ 28 Feb 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN8lbkZ9OIE

• 纽约执业律师李进进: 第一个来讲，在社会治理，包括面对这样疫情的情况下，我们总会出现三种权威。
• 第一种是职业的，就是这个疫情发生过程当中，医学的、防疫方面的这种权威，叫职业方面的权威，专业权威。就是卫建委这个系统所能掌握的，下面的这些医生们他们怎么样，疾病控制中心CDC他们的反应如何，他们应该怎么做，这是一个专业权威的问题。
• 第二，他们遇到情况以后，根据中国的法律规定，行政部门应该采取什么措施。
• 第三个就是在行政部门之后的政治力量在发挥什么作用。行政背后的政治力量，这点我们也比较一下西方和中国的不一样。行政部门背后的力量在西方是投票权。民众通过投票和言论自由来表达他们的观点，来影响行政，这是西方的政治学问。中国的政治学问直接的这个共产党，它是在有一个和政府还要高于的一个直接指挥机构和权力机构，就是所谓共产党。那么现在的情况，这个政治学问就是表现在习近平头上。习近平讲‘我亲自指挥，亲自部署’，他讲这两句话出来的时候他其实是违法的。因为国家主席在宪法上并没有赋予他这么多权力。

Beijing urges WHO leader not to pursue 'lab leak' theory ~ 22 Apr 2021
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/beijing-urges-who-leader-not-pursue-lab-leak-theory
• Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Ethiopian-born director-general of the WHO also addressed a theory that the virus could have escaped from a virology laboratory just kilometers from the Huanan market, where similar viruses are being studied.

“五毛”已经out 中国现靠两千多万 (20 million) 的“网络志愿者” (podcast) ~ 14 Apr 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/meiti/hc-04142021111449.html



中国打击私下追查新冠病毒来源的行动 ~ 21 Jan 2021
https://ipdefenseforum.com/zh-hans/2021/01/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%89%93%E5%87%BB%E7%A7%81%E4%B8%8B%E8%BF%BD%E6%9F%A5%E6%96%B0%E5%86%A0%E7%97%85%E6%AF%92%E6%9D%A5%E6%BA%90%E7%9A%84%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%A8/

• 在中国南部郁郁葱葱的山谷深处，有一个矿井的入口，那里曾经藏有携带与新冠病毒最接近的已知近亲的蝙蝠。
• 这个地区具有重要的科学意义，因为它可能掌握着造成全球180多万人丧生的冠状病毒起源的线索。
• 然而，对科学家和记者来说，由于政治敏感性和保密性，它已经成为一个没有任何信息的黑洞。

[zuolun]

More overseas citizens returning, fewer marriages: 5 things from Singapore's 2020 population report

Risks to Singapore's Covid-19 recovery ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYU0sUV3l1o
• Dr. Leong Hoe Nam, Infectious Disease Specialist at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital, on virus adaptations, the new Singapore clusters, and whether 14 day quarantine is enough to contain the virus.

Singapore bars long-term pass holders and visitors from Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bn4RYSPU_M

• Singapore has tightened its borders and stepped up measures due to the worrying COVID-19 situation locally and around the world.
• From May 2, the city-state will bar all long-term pass holders and short-term visitors with a recent travel history to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan.
• There will also be tighter measures on social gatherings, following a spike in local cases -- including a cluster at a public hospital.
• Health Minister Gan Kim Yong said the situation over the next few days will be critical, and will be closely monitored.

24 new cases of COVID-19 infection in Singapore; 9 cases in the community ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2021/04/30/24-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-in-spore-9-cases-in-the-community/
• 4 community cases linked to Tan Tock Seng Hospital cluster.

Nepal’s Covid-19 toll reaches 3,279 with 33 more deaths ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://kathmandupost.com/health/2021/04/30/nepal-s-covid-19-toll-reaches-3-279-with-33-more-deaths
• Nepal reported 5,657 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, total at 323,187, deaths toll at 3,279.
• Kathmandu electric crematorium running non-stop.

Bangladesh records 2,341 new COVID-19 cases, total at 756,955 and death toll at 11,393 ~ 29 Apr 2021
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-04/29/c_139915604.htm

‘Perfect storm’: How did India’s COVID-19 crisis get so bad? ~ 28 Apr 2021
https://globalnews.ca/news/7816033/india-covid-cases-variant-explained/



Pakistan sees record of 201 deaths from COVID-19 as strict lockdowns planned ~ 28 Apr 2021
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/pakistan-records-highest-daily-covid-19-deaths/2222828
• Pakistan reported 5,292 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, total at 810,231 and  death toll at 17,530.



Ong Ye Kung: Travellers from India stay in third country before flying to SG assume lower risk profile ~ 27 Apr 2021
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2021/04/27/ong-ye-kung-travellers-from-india-stay-in-third-country-before-flying-to-sg-assume-lower-risk-profile/

• Ong Ye Kung was asked about Indian nationals flying in from other countries to bypass the current travel ban flying directly from India.
• Ong replied that a traveller who has left India but stayed in another country before flying to Singapore would not have the same level of risk as someone who came directly from India.
• The soon-to-be Health Minister said that anyone staying in one place long enough would assume the risk profile of that place.
• “I think, as a matter of general infection control knowledge, regardless of your nationality, if you stay in a place long enough, you assume the risk profile of that place,” he said.

COVID-19 third wave menaces Southeast Asian nations ~ 27 Apr 2021
https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/covid-19-third-wave-menaces-southeast-asian-nations/
• As the disease ravages India, several Southeast Asian nations are also weathering record outbreaks.

Ultra-infectious new COVID-19 strain detected in Sri Lanka, can remain airborne for up to 60 minutes ~ 26 Apr 2021
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/watch-ultra-infectious-new-covid-19-strain-detected-in-sri-lanka-can-remain-airborne-for-up-to-60-minutes-380469

• A new deadly and more potent variant of the Coronavirus has been detected in Sri Lanka, which has a dangerous potential to remain airborne for an hour and spreads very fast.
• The country-wide cases which were around 150 before the mid-April New Year have now shot up to over 600 a day. Sri Lanka is also running out of its health care capacity.

[zuolun]

中國驚現印度變異毒株；印度疫情海嘯與中美大爆發有一大不同；病毒雙重變異對世界意味著什麼？巴西部長洩真言：中共發明了病毒！ ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQu_xHU_aQ8

• 最近印度的疫情飆升，越來越引起國際社會的關注。這當然值得引起重視，因為印度這波高峰來勢洶洶，和去年初武漢那一波爆發非常相似。
• 我們只需要看看統計的曲線圖就可以看到，這個坡度的曲線和武漢相差無幾。
• 按照印度官方發布的最新數據，印度在昨天也就是29號這1天的新增病例衝到了386,555的新高度，而且明顯還在處於上升期，暫時看不到沖頂的跡象。

China is floating theories that COVID-19 originated elsewhere ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpQudWIsU_8

• After the COVID-19 pandemic first brokeout in China; the world is in trouble ever after.

Did Covid-19 come from a lab? Most likely not, but the jury’s still out ~ 5 Apr 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2021/04/05/did-covid-19-come-from-a-lab-most-likely-not-but-the-jurys-still-out/

• Dr. Mark Kortepeter, a physician and biodefense expert, explains what’s needed to conduct an investigation into the true origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• After nearly a year-long delay, a team of scientists from the World Health Organization visited China on a mission to determine the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19. The mystery should be solved, right? Well, not exactly.
• The trip was a short, chaperoned visit that some team members complained did not give the team unfettered access to the raw data that would normally be needed for a detailed assessment.

Opinion: Did covid-19 escape from a Wuhan lab? The WHO report can’t be the final word ~ 22 Mar 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/22/did-covid-19-escape-wuhan-lab-who-report-cant-be-final-word/

• Two members of the WHO investigative team acknowledged that lab workers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China were sick — from what, it is not yet clear — in fall 2019, before the public coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.
  
• That information confirms an assertion in a Jan. 15 statement by the State Department (where I worked at the time), and it represents the sort of fact pattern that investigators would expect if covid originated with an accidental lab leak, one of several possible but unproven theories.

China celebrates India's suffering ~ 4 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlXuz5QpJfI
• Who celebrates the sight of burning pyres? China.
• The Chinese Communist Party mocks Indian COVID-19 victims, showing Chinese rocket next to Indian funeral pyre.
• The image was reportedly posted by the Communist Party's Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, China's official law enforcement agency, which has millions of followers on Weibo.



Xi sends condolences to Modi, offers help to India over COVID-19 crisis ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222528.shtml
• Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday (Apr 30) sends a message of condolences to Indian PM Narendra Modi over India's worsening COVID-19 crisis.



• Xi Jinping said China is willing to enhance cooperation with India in the fight against COVID-19 and provide help to the country.

[zuolun]

More overseas citizens returning, fewer marriages: 5 things from Singapore's 2020 population report

Scott Morrison defends India ban in tense exchange with Karl Stefanovic  ~ 4 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9-rXVUoMRA

• Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the insinuation he has blood on his hands over his ban on Australians returning from India as "absurd".
• Cricket commentator Michael Slater launched a scathing attack on Mr Morrison, saying the PM had blood on his hands over the nearly 9,000 Australians still stranded in India.
• "We have seen a much higher rise in the infection rate of people coming off planes," Mr Morrison told Karl Stefanovic on Today. "That's one in eight of our most recent charters that have come out and that means we need to have a pause."

"There are very serious questions here": India ban could be unlawful, law professor says ~ 2 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InFaPm634cc

• A constitutional lawyer says Australia may be acting against its own biosecurity act in banning arrivals from India.

Covid: Australians could face jail or fines if they return from India ~ 2 May 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56953052

• Failing to comply with the new ruling could result in a five-year jail sentence, an A$66,000 fine, or both.
• The decision will be reviewed on 15 May, the health ministry said.

Singapore tightens COVID-19 safety measures; similar to Phase 2 but 'not a circuit breaker' ~ 4 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7CYHwWqw_4

4 planes coming to Singapore from India on 5 May 2021:

• IX688 Chennai (Aircraft B738)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AXB688



• SEJ7373 Chennai SpiceJet (Aircradt B737)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SEJ7373



• IX682 Tiruchirappalli (Aircraft B738)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AXB682



• AI346 Bengaluru via Chennai (Aircraft A321)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AIC346

[zuolun]

WHO reviews Chinese COVID vaccines ~ 3 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6SFqmrhBHE
• Two Chinese COVID-19 vaccines, Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech, are under review by the WHO for emergency use.
• That means it could give an official stamp of approval that they are safe and effective.
• If approved, they will be the first jabs developed and produced in Asia to get worldwide recognition.

Covid cases surge in Chile despite high vaccine uptake ~ 3 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHAx0p2EXis
• Vaccines alone aren't enough to bring the pandemic under control, scientists have warned - something Chile has found out, the hard way.

直播吐真言！巴西經濟部長批中國疫苗不行 ~ 2 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLwMQfj2C_A

Brazil reaches grim milestone of 400,000 Covid deaths ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTT1dILXi4o
• Brazil has become the second country to pass 400,000 Covid deaths after the United States.

中國疫苗接種者現異常 相關資訊被噤 ~ 29 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2Ki_fuzdw8
• 歐盟外交部日前發佈報告，指控中共以「疫苗外交」取代了「口罩外交」，並吹噓本國疫苗的好處。
• 但中國疫苗接種者揭露，不少人接種者出現異常，相關資訊被視為機密。

Beijing’s diplomacy more effective than its vaccines ~ 23 Apr 2021
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-diplomacy-effective-sinopharm-sinovac-coronavirus-vaccine/
• China may be behind on the science battle, but it’s still winning the narrative war.

Survivor of rare blood clot after AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine recalls ordeal ~ 16 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_jLbn8lUNI
• Lauren Briggs is one of the survivors of the widely reported but rare blood clotting associated with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in the U.K.

中國科興疫苗好神奇！智利大量接種 染疫人數不減反增 ~ 14 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSCmmB8ctT0
• 土耳其、巴西和智利在接種中國科興疫苗後診率不減反增；菲律賓的總統衛隊爆出接種中國國藥疫苗後仍有多人感染。
• 中國疾病預防控制中心（CDC）主任高福首度坦承，中國疫苗保護力低，當局正考慮混打不同種疫苗來提升效力。

Malaysia begins rollout of Sinovac's COVID-19 vaccine ~ 18 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0eDSIorpy4
• Malaysia has begun the rollout of Sinovac's COVID-19 vaccine. Health authorities want to achieve herd immunity by the end of the year.
• Malaysia is also currently in talks with countries including China and Singapore on mutual recognition of vaccination certificates.

Chile pandemic: COVID cases rising despite vaccination campaign ~ 17 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBAfnNKkJAU
• COVID-19 infections and deaths are rising sharply in Chile despite the country having one of the world's most efficient inoculation campaigns.
• 33% of the population has already been vaccinated but that has not been enough to give its residents the 80% herd immunity needed.
• Hospitals are overflowing with coronavirus patients and quarantine curbs will be imposed next week.

Malaysia’s Covid-19 new daily cases jump to 3,744, total at 424,376, death toll at 1,591 ~ 5 May 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-new-covid19-infections-jump-3744-selangor-accounting-1548-cases



Malaysia reports first case of Indian Covid-19 variant ~ 2 May 2021
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-reports-first-case-of-indian-covid-19-variant
• The B1617 variant was detected in an Indian national screened at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

AstraZeneca vaccines have arrived in Malaysia but is it safe? ~ 29 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXQ1_uH7itg
• AstraZeneca vaccines are open for online booking on 2nd May 2021 at 12pm.
• The appointment is available from 5th May until 6th June 2021 at 4 locations in KL and Selangor.

Astrazeneca vaccine: safe or not safe? ~ 9 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWhoCltkyvU
• European regulators say the vaccine can, in rare cases, cause blood clots.
• The UK is to offer alternative jabs to young people, who appear to be more at risk.
• There have been fewer than 80 cases reported in the UK despite more than 20 million doses being given out.



Malaysia, China get ready for post-Covid-19 cooperation ~ 2 Apr 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-china-agree-mutual-recognition-vaccine-certificates



China's vaccine diplomacy ~ 27 Mar 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CuPqeIJr3U

[zuolun]

才笑人就出包！长征五号火箭残骸失控 南北纬40度内陷危机 (podcast) ~ 5 May 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/hz1-05052021082542.html
• 2021年4月29日，长征5B火箭 （Long March 5B）从文昌航天发射场发射了22.5公吨的「天和号核心舱」。

China’s out-of-control rocket set to re-enter earth’s atmosphere, can crash anytime, anywhere ~ 6 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJSfU7h8FqQ
• The Long March 5B rocket, which carried a Chinese space station module, has dropped into low Earth orbit and now risks crashing back down.
• It is one of the largest ever launches to make an uncontrolled re-entry to earth.
• It is not yet clear exactly where or when the debris will hit our planet.
• US Space Command is tracking the rocket's trajectory amid concerns about where its debris may make an impact.

China's Long March - 5B rocket likely to fall uncontrollably and 'may hit you' ~ 4 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX4LOp6wP_Y
• China launched the core module of its upcoming Tianhe space station earlier this week.
• The module reached the low earth orbit after being transported by the Chinese Long March - 5B rocket.
• But after making the drop-off the rocket is now likely to hurl back into the earth's atmosphere, making an uncontrollable descent.

管殺不管埋？中共長征火箭失控將墜毀！不知誰會被砸到？今深夜通過台灣 ~ 4 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPG2sgYssII
• 又是射後不理？21噸中國長征火箭不受控墜落。
• 居民小心！長征火箭掉在哪裡…也是中國式機密。
• 中國文昌航天發射場揭密！為何設在海南島？。　
• 用火箭挑釁！中國曾射長征…標註飛過台灣島上空。

中国雄心勃勃的太空计划 长征5B发射天和核心舱 ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEGSLNwR80E
• 按计划如果老化的国际空间站在未来几年停止运行，那么中国将是唯一一个在太空中永久性运营空间站的国家。
• 以前由于美国的担忧，中国没有被邀请参加国际空间站。

[zuolun]

中共再次制裁澳洲，操作之骚令人掩鼻。脱裤子放屁？弹尽粮绝？接下来要被澳洲弹JJ至死？ ~ 6 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sWKl93sKSI

• 中国发改委宣布即日起无限期暂停中澳战略经济对话机制。

China 'indefinitely' suspends key economic dialogue with Australia ~ 7 May 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57004797



Australia probe of China port signals trouble for Beijing ~ 3 May 2021
https://ajot.com/news/australia-probe-of-china-port-signals-trouble-for-beijing

• “There has been pressure on Australia to revoke that deal because it's seen to clash with U.S. interests.”

Why is China punishing Australia? The human impact of the trade war ~ 26 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SShvYq5gQ2U

• Over the last twelve months, China has launched a wave of trade sanctions against Australia. Industry after industry has been hit with a range of punishing measures, from massive new taxes to import restrictions.
• As a result, many Australian products have effectively been banned from entering China, leaving the businesses that rely on this trade in peril. But why is China punishing Australia and who is at risk?

研究指中國對澳洲貿易制裁影響有限　出口商多已找到替代市場 ~ 23 Apr 2021
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/609991/%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%8C%87%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E5%B0%8D%E6%BE%B3%E6%B4%B2%E8%B2%BF%E6%98%93%E5%88%B6%E8%A3%81%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90-%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%95%86%E5%A4%9A%E5%B7%B2%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3%E5%B8%82%E5%A0%B4

• 除了葡萄酒和牛肉外，大部份出口商似乎皆找到中國以外的其他替代市場。
• 但拉賈表示，就大麥、銅、棉花、海鮮和木材而言，其在去年底中國加大制裁力度後，於其他市場的銷售急劇上升，這一明顯轉變顯示這大致上是貿易轉移的結果。
• 但他也強調，澳洲葡萄酒業仍在努力彌補中國高端市場的損失，至於整體牛肉出口減少的問題，他認為更多是反映供應一方多年來的乾旱問題。

How reliant is Australia on China? ~ 17 Jun 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52915879

• Canberra's push for answers on the pandemic's origins has angered Beijing. Canberra has raised concerns about human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, banned Chinese firm Huawei from building Australia's 5G network, and debated allegations of Beijing interfering in domestic affairs.
• This friction isn't unique to Australia. Canada, Japan and South Korea - among others - have seen economic pushback from China, allegedly for political reasons. But Australia's economic dependence on China is greater than many nations.
• For the past decade, China has been Australia's largest trading partner and now accounts for 32.6% of its exports.

从牛肉禁令到留学旅游警示 中澳关系步入历史低谷 ~ 15 Jun 2020
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-53022635

• 中国和澳大利亚关系持续恶化。中国继对澳大利亚大麦征税、禁止部分牛肉进口后，近日又连续发布旅游安全提醒和留学预警。
• 澳大利亚政府此前曾呼吁针对新冠肺炎疫情的源头展开独立调查。有学者认为，中方的举措是针对澳大利亚提议的“惩罚”，中澳关系进入1972年建交以来最低点。

[zuolun]

Did Dr. Fauci fund Wuhan Virus research? ~ 13 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTxyWjpZOdo

In COVID origins storm, Fauci denies US funded controversial study in Wuhan ~ 12 May 2021
https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/in-covid-origins-storm-fauci-denies-us-funded-controversial-study-in-wuhan/

Fauci and Sen. Rand Paul spar over Wuhan Lab Research and Covid-19 origin ~ 11 May 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/05/11/fauci-and-sen-rand-paul-spar-over-wuhan-lab-research-and-covid-19-origin

What is EcoAlliance not telling us about Wuhan Institute? ~ 24 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REuVDsV4HMA

• In 2014, the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, the part of the NIH headed by Fauci, awarded a US$3.4 million grant to the New York-based EcoHealth Alliance, which aims to protect people from viruses that jump from species to species.
• The group hired the virology lab in Wuhan to conduct genetic analyses of bat coronaviruses collected in Yunnan province, about 800 miles southwest of Wuhan. EcoHealth Alliance paid the lab $598,500 over five years. The lab had secured approval from both the U.S. State Department and the NIH.

PCR inventor Kary Mullis talks about Anthony Fauci— “he doesn’t know anything really about anything” ~ 15 Apr 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlELKCouvpk

Kary Mullis, Cancel Culture and Covid 19 ~ 24 Feb 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nem2GmzalaA

• What was Dr. Karry Mullis' background and why did he come into conflict with much of the medical and scientific establishment?

TWiV 615: Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance ~ 19 May 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdYDL_RK--w

• "They knew everything. This entire pandemic could have been prevented. This man has blood on his hands."

Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab ~ 5 May 2020
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd

• Anthony Fauci has been the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for almost 40 years, where he has tackled dozens of outbreaks, including HIV/AIDS. To him, the coronavirus is "extraordinary."
• Anthony Fauci is currently the Chief Medical Advisor to President Joe Biden, officially appointed in 2021
  

如果中国有新闻自由...... ~ 4 May 2020
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%A6%82%E6%9E%9C%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%9C%89%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1/av-53322664

• 中国如果有新闻自由的话，不但可以已经找到病毒来源，当初也不会有这么多中国人病亡牺牲。

中国央視：李文亮等8名 ‘造謠者’ 擾亂社會秩序，造成不良社會影響！不信謠，不造謠，不傳謠！共建和諧網絡！ ~ 7 Feb 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxWO_EDx6JM

中共承认新冠死亡500万？川普说偷走的东西必须归还！~ 12 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbMjAobTQw
• 中共2020年人口普查數據一公佈遭到了廣泛的質疑 突然間多死了500萬人。

病毒武器化？中共軍方已有製造多種病毒的路線圖？第三次世界大戰將是生化戰嗎？ ~ 12 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv9ZUIxsWqs

COVID 'good material for non-traditional bioweapon' to ruin economies: Chinese virologist, Dr Li-Meng Yan ~ 10 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk2HM1PYkro

• Dr Li-Meng Yan: "Everyone deserves to know the truth."



中共軍方文件揭示，病毒是中共軍方生物武器。習近平部署？美國軍方秘密報告，病毒來自實驗室 ~ 9 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQL9Q1vVIPc
• 巴西總統：病毒來自實驗室，中共利用新冠病毒打一場生物戰。

病毒生武战主编少将徐德忠上了澳报头版 ~ 7 May 2021
https://blog.creaders.net/u/8994/202105/404031.html
• Beijing's military scientists warned of biological weapons deployed in world war.

[zuolun]

Company bought back 852,900 Wilmar shares for S$4,223,289.34 ~ 7 May 2021
https://www.wilmar-international.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/highlights/sgx-announcements/2021/wil-announcement_share-buy-back-notice_7may2021.pdf
• Daily Share Buy-Back purchase prices were between S$4.94 and S$4.95.

Wilmar posts highest Q1 net profit on record at US$450.2m ~ 30 Apr 2021
https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/wilmar-posts-highest-q1-net-profit-on-record-210430
• Wilmar recorded its highest ever first quarter net profit on the back of strong performance across all core segments.

Wilmar ~ Trading in a upward sloping channel

Wilmar closed with a spinning top @ S$4.85 (+0.13, +2.8%) with 9.39m shares done on 17 May 2021.

Immediate support @ S$4.60, immediate resistance @ S$5.03.



Wilmar closed @ S$4.85 on 17 May 2021.



Malaysian palm oil losing price competitiveness — Maybank Kim Eng ~ 17 May 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysian-palm-oil-losing-price-competitiveness-%E2%80%94-maybank-kim-eng
• To avoid a repeat of the decline in prices that occurred in 2012, Maybank Kim Eng said an immediate stopgap measure would be to exempt duties on Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) exports.

Malaysia maintains May crude palm oil export duty at 8% ~ 17 May 2021
https://www.todayonline.com/world/malaysia-maintains-may-crude-palm-oil-export-duty-8
• The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of RM4,533.40 per tonne for May, up from RM4,331.48 a tonne in April.

Chocolate’s about to get more expensive ~ 12 May 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/chocolates-about-get-more-expensive
• Palm oil has surged more than 120% in the past year and burst through RM4,500 a ton to a record on May 12.

[zuolun]

George Soros buys millions' worth of stocks linked to Bill Hwang's Archegos collapse: Bloomberg ~ 16 May 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/george-soros-buys-millions-worth-190420913.html

How Archegos lost US$20 billion in 2 days and the lessons learnt ~ 6 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Oo21Qv6Ea0
• Before he lost it all, Bill Hwang was the greatest trader you’ve never heard of.

Archegos and Ponzi Finance

By Doug Noland
Apr. 05, 2021

• Archegos provides yet another anecdote that the expansive global derivatives marketplace is at the epicenter of leverage and speculative excess.
• From numerous reports, it appears Archegos had fund equity of around $10 billion. Positions have been estimated in the range of $50 billion to $100 billion, meaning a leverage ratio between 5 and 10 to one.
• Why would Archegos employ such a risky strategy - basically reckless leveraging of volatile equities exposure? We can only assume the firm was emboldened by the hyper-loose policy and liquidity backdrop.

I've been a longtime enthusiast for Hyman Minsky's analysis. His work plays prominently in my analytical framework. Financial structures evolve over time, and there is an innate propensity for this evolution to regress into a cycle of ever-increasing excess, fragility and instability. Success in finance - by borrowers, lenders, speculators, investment bankers, investors, businesses, central bankers and the like - ensures only more exuberant risk embracement over the course of the cycle. Importantly, debt structures degenerate over time, as the boom is perpetuated by expanding quantities of debt of deteriorating quality.

Minsky's "financial instability hypothesis" models three categories of debt structures: Sound "hedge finance" - where "cash flows are expected to exceed the cash flow commitments on liabilities for every period." Less sound "speculative finance" - where cash flows, although inadequate to fully service debt in the short run, are generally sufficient over the longer term. And unsound "Ponzi finance" - "cash flows from assets in the near-term fall short of cash payment commitments" and only with some future "bonanza" will cash flows ever be sufficient to service debts and provide any realistic hope of generating profits.

Importantly, "a 'Ponzi' finance unit must expand its debt load to meet its financial obligations." New money and credit in abundance are a necessity for perpetuating the scheme. The greater the ratio of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the fragility of the financial sector to rising interest rates and/or other shocks. Ponzi financed assets, in particular, are highly sensitive to both changing perceptions and higher interest rates. Traditionally, higher rates are problematic as debt service costs rise at the same time the present value of future cash flows drops. Quoting Minsky, "The rise in long term interest rates and the decline in expected profits play particular havoc with Ponzi units, for the present value of the hoped for future bonanza falls sharply."

Minsky: "It can be shown that if hedge financing dominates, then the economy may well be an equilibrium seeking and containing system. In contrast, the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation amplifying system… Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance."

Minsky witnessed a lot, but he surely never imagined an environment of zero rates and endless Trillions of Fed monetization, and how such a backdrop - the perpetual "bonanza" - would extend the "deviation amplifying" Ponzi phase. The Archegos fiasco had me this week sharpening my focus on Minskian analysis. The facts are not altogether clear. But from numerous reports, it appears Archegos had fund equity of around $10 billion. Positions have been estimated in the range of $50 billion to $100 billion, meaning a leverage ratio between 5 and 10 to one.

After an insider trading settlement back in 2012, the hedge fund was converted to a so-called "family office" that enjoys much less onerous reporting requirements. Archegos maintained highly concentrated positions, with upwards of a $10 billion (equal to fund equity!) position in Viacom (VIAC). And with a second huge position in Discovery (DISCA), Archegos was willing to accept the risk of having media exposure significantly in excess of fund equity. Furthermore, Archegos held substantial exposures to volatile Chinese Internet stocks (including Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent (TCEHY)).

Bill Hwang, the founder of Archegos, has operated in the markets since the nineties. Hwang was a protégé of hedge-fund legend Julian Robertson at Tiger Asset Management, before founding Tiger Asia Management (a so-called "Tiger Cub") in 2001. In Hwang's long and distinguished career, he has been in the catbird's seat for extraordinary market cycles - including spectacular booms along with devastating bursting Bubbles.

Why would Archegos employ such a risky strategy - basically reckless leveraging of volatile equities exposure? We can only assume the firm was emboldened by the hyper-loose policy and liquidity backdrop. And why would the dominant global securities firms (including Nomura, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo) so readily provide the financing for such a daring scheme? It does support the view that repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts, along with unfathomable liquidity injections, have numbed the entire marketplace to risk.

It has been my thesis that we're in the throes of a "blow-off" period of unprecedented speculative leveraging. And Archegos provides yet another anecdote that the expansive global derivatives marketplace is at the epicenter of leverage and speculative excess. Archegos could employ such egregious leverage through "over-the-counter" derivatives positions with various securities firms - in what are called "basis" or "total return" swaps.

These types of derivatives are big business for Wall Street. From the FT (Robert Armstrong): "Global banks earned an estimated $11 billion in revenue in 2019 from synthetic equity financing including total return swaps, double the level of 2012… The business, which has grown rapidly since the financial crisis, accounts for more than half of banks' total equity financing revenue… - more than traditional margin lending and lending out shares for shorting combined. Synthetic financing continued to take share from other forms of equity financing in the first half of this year."

Pulling from my Q4 Z.1 analysis from a few weeks back: "Broker/Dealer Loans expanded a record $100 billion, or 84% annualized, during Q4 to a record $574 billion. For 2020, Broker/Dealer Loans surged a record $164 billion, or 40%. This compares to previous cycle peak growth of $79 billion in 2006 and $75 billion in Bubble year 1999. Total Broker/Dealer Assets jumped $168 billion, or 19% annualized, during Q4 to a record $3.676 TN."

This is the Fed's own data. Do they not have a team ready to investigate such extraordinary Wall Street lending growth during a period of conspicuous exuberance and speculative excess? Since the "great financial crisis," Fed chairs have repeatedly expounded the view that monetary policy is not an appropriate tool to counter asset inflation and Bubbles. It was, instead, macro-prudential polices that were to safeguard financial stability. Archegos is one more example of the serious shortcomings of this approach. How many times have we been told how closely the Fed on a daily basis monitors for risks to financial stability?

The FT's Gillian Tett posed the relevant question: "So was Archegos an anomaly? Or a trend?" I give her credit for being diplomatic. This was utter craziness. A long-term trend that more recently achieved powerful momentum; a perilous sign of the times.

Some have drawn comparisons to Long-Term Capital Management's 1998 blowup. Archegos is smaller and its derivatives exposure only a fraction of the Trillion or so (notional) LTCM positions. It had not borrowed in the money markets and was not levered in Credit instruments, which would generally indicate less systemic impact. Yet, on its surface, Archegos' positioning and leverage are more audacious than even LTCM.

There have been no allegations that outright fraud is involved. No humongous "fat finger" trading flub, or the shenanigans of an overzealous hedge fund titan wannabe. There were no flaws in risk models or aberrant market dislocation that blew up the strategy. Instead, it was one crazy roll of the dice by a seasoned operator betting on the perpetual bull market - gleefully financed by the who's who of global speculative finance.

Archegos is emblematic of an out-of-control mania and a complete breakdown of responsible lending and regulatory oversight. It may not have posed a systemic risk, yet the Archegos fiasco is certainly an indictment of the entire system from the speculators to the financiers to the regulators and - most importantly - the institution entrusted as guardian of our "money" and financial stability more generally.

March 31 - Reuters (David Lawder): "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is facing pressure from Democrats to revive tougher scrutiny of hedge funds and other large pools of capital as she heads her first meeting of the premier grouping of U.S. financial regulators… The meltdown of leveraged hedge fund Archegos Capital Management this week… gives the Financial Stability Oversight Council fresh evidence to review. The council, led by Treasury and including heads of the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other major financial regulators, is scheduled to meet… to privately discuss hedge fund activity and the performance of open-end mutual funds during the coronavirus pandemic."

What are the ramifications of the Archegos implosion? We can assume regulators will take a sharpened approach with leveraged institution oversight - hedge funds and "family offices," in particular. Lending conditions in levered "securities finance" will tighten. JPMorgan analysts estimate losses to the big securities firms could approach $10 billion - with the largest hits to Nomura and Credit Suisse. For Credit Suisse, it's somewhat a "third (fourth) strike" (Greensill Capital, York Capital Management and Luckin Coffee). At least at the margin, the big securities firms will be somewhat more circumspect in extending Credit to highly levered market operators.

Perhaps the most consequential near-term changes will unfold stealthily in the derivatives marketplace. Regulators will more carefully scrutinize the types of derivatives that allowed Archegos to go nuts with leverage. This should spur a more cautious approach from derivative counterparties (i.e. the big securities firms), with the upshot a tightening of conditions for the leveraged speculating community.

From the FT: "'There is never just one cockroach,' warns Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at research house TS Lombard. 'If all this sounds familiar, it is because of the similarities with the beginning of the global financial crisis, when two hedge funds…had to be bailed out by their sponsor, Bear Stearns, following margin calls they could not meet.' He adds: 'To be absolutely clear, we are not calling [another financial crisis] here - there simply is not enough evidence to conclude that Archegos is anything more than an isolated case.'"

There is every reason to believe Archegos is but the tip of the iceberg. While not obvious, the comparison to the Bear Stearns Credit fund blowups in June 2007 is apt. Those two funds had employed egregious leverage in their subprime mortgage derivatives holdings. And this type of speculative leveraging had acted as a marginal source of liquidity during the "Terminal Phase" of mortgage finance Bubble excess. And while the Fed's aggressive monetary loosening was instrumental in sustaining general Bubble excess well into 2008, the implosion of the Bear Stearns funds marked a momentous inflection point - a tightening of lending conditions at the margin (subprime) that marked the beginning of the end for a historic Bubble.

There's a case to be made for characterizing Archegos as an egregious employer of leverage at the fringe of an epic Bubble in leveraged speculation - having provided a marginal source of marketplace liquidity. The collapse and resulting tightening of lending conditions will now mark an inflection point for the historic Bubble in leveraged speculation across the securities and derivatives markets.

My fascination with Bubbles goes back to the late-eighties Japanese Bubble period. A similar dynamic held through the many Bubbles I've analyzed over several decades: U.S. bond market 1992/3, Mexico, the SE Asian "Tigers," the nineties "tech" Bubble, the mortgage finance Bubble, and others. In each case, I became convinced the amount of Credit, speculation and other egregious excess was extraordinary. And years ago I adopted a Bubble maxim: "I knew things were really bad. It was invariably much worse than even I imagined."

April 2 - Financial Times (Katie Martin, Robin Wigglesworth and Laurence Fletcher): "The super-rich face challenges that the rest of us do not have to consider: yacht maintenance, selecting the right fleet of private jets, finding boarding schools for their offspring. Thanks to their roughly $6tn in combined family wealth, they now have to worry about Bill Hwang too. Hwang has shot from relative obscurity to become the key figure in global markets over the past two weeks, as the implosion of his Archegos investment house has hammered a handful of stocks and punched multibillion-dollar holes out of Credit Suisse and Nomura."

I was unaware that "family office" assets had inflated to $6 trillion - through an astounding confluence of policy-induced wealth redistribution and asset inflation. From the FT: "That golden age has brought a proliferation. In a report issued a year ago, business school Insead noted that the number of single family offices had grown by 38% between 2017 and 2019, to reach more than 7,000. Assets under management stood at some $5.9tn in 2019."

We can safely assume assets are, at a minimum, now approaching $7 trillion - and, with some leverage, the size of holdings could be double or even triple. And while many "family offices" would be cautiously focused on wealth preservation, there's an element of "regulatory arbitrage" that we all should find troubling. As Archegos has illuminated, this structure creates a loophole for avoiding regulatory oversight and reporting requirements. Most of these operations are domiciled in lax off-shore financial centers outside the purview of credible regulators.

I have proffered tens of Trillions of speculative leverage have accumulated over this protracted Bubble period. The so-called "family office" universe has clearly become a key operator in global leveraged speculation. But let's not lose sight of the big picture.

March 29 - Reuters (Gina Chon): "But broadly global watchdogs are eyeing opaque areas of the market. Assets among shadow banks have increased following the financial crisis, totaling more than $200 trillion in 2019, now making up about 50% of the global financial system, according to the Financial Stability Board, compared to 42% in 2008."

Archegos is also a reminder of latent liquidity issues. For the most part, the fund trafficked in exposures to liquid equity securities. For example, Viacom traded 38 million shares on March 23rd, trading at $96 late that Tuesday afternoon. By Friday, some 20 trading hours later, the stock had been more than cut in half to $40.

Clearly, the large "margin call" block trades to unwind Archegos positions were a major factor. But how much selling came out of the woodwork in an attempt to "front run" this forced liquidation? Some smelled blood, and others panicked - and the market in Viacom stock turned illiquid, then quickly dislocated. It was the inverse of spectacular speculative melt-ups we became so accustomed to during the quarter.

It made me recall the March 2020 implosion of some popular corporate bond and small cap equities ETFs. After beginning the year at $37, Viacom was trading at $100 only nine sessions ago. Importantly, it was the speculative melt-up that set the stage for the inevitable reversal, dislocation and Archegos blowup/deleveraging. We should all be worried by the ongoing proliferation of ETFs gorging on wildly volatile and speculative company stocks. It's all late-cycle "Moneyness of Risk Assets" "Terminal Phase" egregious excess. Just wait until the "front running" (selling/shorting/put buying), illiquidity and dislocation when these funds suffer major losses and panicked outflows ("runs").

Q1 2021 - another quarter for the history books. The Banks (BKX) surged 24.0% (Nasdaq Bank Index up 28.7%), with the Broker/Dealers (XBD) gaining 19.2%. The small cap Russell 2000 jumped 14.1%, and the "average stock" Value Line Arithmetic Index rose 16.4%. The NYSE Arca Oil Index jumped 31.3%, while the Semiconductors rose 15.9%. The Dow Transports advanced 17.9%. Gamestop surged 916%, AMC Entertainment 342%, and Express 336%.

Vaccinations reached 100 million, while 900,000 jobs were added in March. Mind-boggling fiscal stimulus, and the Fed holding doggedly to $120 billion of monthly QE (for months to come). The Treasury five-year inflation "breakeven rate" jumped 66 bps during the quarter to 2.64% (high since 2008) - with manufacturing survey price indexes surging to multi-decade highs.

Ten-year Treasury yields spiked 81 bps to 1.72%. The Brazilian real and Turkish lira each dropped 8.9%. Erdogan threw a tantrum and sacked Turkey's chief central banker. Turkish lira bond yields spiked about 500 bps during the quarter to 17.4%. Brazilian real yields rose 253 bps to 9.40%. Supply-chain finance leader Greensill Capital collapsed during the period, while Archegos imploded spectacularly at quarter-end. Melvin Capital and other hedge funds suffered at the hands of wildly unstable markets.

As Warren Buffet is fond of saying: "You find out who's swimming naked when the tide goes out." Get the women and children off the beach! It's high tide, yet things are turning nasty already. Hyman Minsky's "Ponzi Finance" on a systemic (and global) basis - and the abhorrent scheme is showing its age.

How troubled trader Bill Hwang quietly amassed US$10 billion ~ 2 Apr 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2021/04/02/how-troubled-trader-bill-hwang-quietly-amassed-10-billion/
• Hwang’s Archegos Capital was the subject of margin calls that reverberated through financial markets in recent days and cost investment banks like Credit Suisse and Nomura Holdings between US$5 billion to US$10 billion, JPMorgan analysts estimate.

[zuolun]

Analysts maintain 'buy' on ComfortDelGro on improved 1Q21 earnings and as proxy for recovery ~ 14 May 2021
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/analysts-maintain-buy-comfortdelgro-improved-1q21-earnings-and-proxy-recovery

• “The impending review of Downtown Line financing framework and potential restructuring of its Australia bus assets remains a catalyst. Key risk includes further lockdowns in operating countries.”
• Shares in CDG closed 5 cents lower or 3.1% down at $1.58 on May 14, or 1.3 times P/B, according to UOB Kay Hian’s estimates.

ComfortDelGro posts 56% growth in 1Q21 PATMI, announces plans to unlock value in Australia ~ 12 May 2021
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/results/comfortdelgro-posts-56-growth-1q21-patmi-announces-plans-unlock-value-australia%20

• CDG posted a profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) of $56.2m for the 1QFY2021 ended March, up 56,1% y-o-y from $36m previously.
• The higher PATMI comes despite a 0.7% y-o-y dip in revenue to $856.3m. Revenue included government relief of $8.1m, primarily from the UK.
• Excluding government relief, revenue fell 1.6% or $14.2m, most driven by its taxi and automotive engineering services segments.

ComfortDelgro ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel, critical support @ S$1.49

ComfortDelgro closed with a spinning top @ S$1.60 (+0.02, +1.3%) with 16m shares done on 17 May 2021.

Immediate support @ S$1.54, immediate resistance @ S$1.63.



ComfortDelgro closed @ S$1.60 on 17 May 2021.

[zuolun]

COVID-19's origin
• Leadership at Beijing Institute of Microbiology & Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences & Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

• 石正丽：“溯源很重要，但有可能永远找不到”。
• 凡走过必留下痕迹。

Was COVID man-made or natural? ~ 15 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jPYJqFczck
•  Nicholas Wade speaks on China, WHO, and Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Origin of Covid — Following the Clues ~ 3 May 2021
https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038
•  Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?

Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance



Dr. Zheng-li Shi in a high safety (level BSL4) lab. Her coronavirus research was done in the much lower safety levels of BSL2 and BSL3 labs.

[zuolun]

SIA's share price recovery is not based on earnings; it is primarily due to:
1) Issuance of Rights (SIA has spent $7.1b of $8.8b raised in rights issue).
2) Issuance of Convertible Bonds (Conversion at $5.743 per share; maturity on Dec 3, 2025).
3) Multiple issuances of Call warrants (By Macquarie Bank).

SIA reports record full-year net loss of S$4.3 billion ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uk8w8h8qLs
• SIA will issue S$6.2 billion of convertible bonds to help weather the crisis.

SIA ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

SIA closed with a bearish harami @ S$4.70 (-0.16, -3.3%) with 6.76m shares done on 19 May 2021.

Immediate support @ S$4.65, immediate resistance @ S$4.95.



SIA closed @ S$4.70 on 19 May 2021.

[zuolun]

深圳地標賽格大廈無故搖晃成詛咒，中共將迎來命運「奇異點」？真的曾經發生過！~ 20 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDZr0zN0CMo
• 基於其結構，該出問題的時候就出。

DPM Heng Swee Keat says foreigners can be considered “Singapore core” ~ 18 May 2021
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2021/05/18/dpm-heng-swee-keat-says-foreigners-can-be-considered-singapore-core/

• The "Singapore core" should not be too narrowly defined in terms of whether someone is Singapore-born, a new citizen, or a foreigner who is helming a company, said Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat on Monday (May 17).
• “On the whole, I think we must get our strategic direction correct – that we welcome people from all over the world who can add value to us, (and) who share our views,” he said.

新加坡2020年人口报告 ~ 24 Sep 2020
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/259767120

新鲜出炉的报告，很有意思。1. 关于人口。新加坡最新总人口568万5800，其中包括公民和永久居民在内的居民人口约404万：



值得注意的是，和过去几年相比，虽然公民人口稳步增加，PR人口基本稳定，但是外国人口大幅度减少。原因大家也都理解，疫情，没办法。

[zuolun]

What we know about the Indian COVID variant ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=275TdKLUonI

Does Remdesivir work against the Wuhan virus? ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTzynYst7Ts

新加坡研究显示：变异病毒在呼吸道残留的数量更高 ~ 19 May 2021
https://health.huanqiu.com/article/43BOuQbXpnJ

以色列借種率（諧音）全球第一，驚人報告出爐，原來年輕人⋯⋯ ~ 18 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgwxfHMfqXk

10 scientific reasons to support airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 ~ 9 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD1kEezz7fQ

mRNA vaccine spike protein problems ~ 7 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8THiPKsHQ

新加坡发现七种新冠变异毒株，对印度几乎彻底“禁境” ~ 23 Apr 2021
https://www.163.com/dy/article/G89KAECA0514BR2R.html
• 有鉴于印度的2019冠状病毒疾病疫情恶化，新加坡进一步收紧对来自印度旅客的入境措施。
• 从今天晚上11点59分起，所有在过去14天到过印度的长期证件持有者和短期访客，将不准入境新加坡或在新加坡过境，直到另行通知。
• 这项新条例也适用于之前获得入境许可的人士。

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal embarrasses himself and India ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JABhCGOzkR4

'There is no Singapore variant,' say politicians after Indian opposition leader makes false Covid claims ~ 20 May 2021
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/19/asia/singapore-india-covid-variant-intl-hnk/index.html
• The Singapore and Indian governments berated a senior Indian opposition politician on Wednesday (May 19) for fanning a coronavirus scare between their countries, saying his comments were "irresponsible" and not based on facts.

Singapore to file case against Delhi Chief Minister? Kejriwal's Covid comments cause storm ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-hP4Pr-eCQ
• Singapore envoy to India commented on Delhi Chief Minister's remarks.
• The envoy hinted at a possibility of filing a case against Kejriwal.
• Arvind Kejriwal's Covid comments have caused a diplomatic flutter.
• Kejriwal's tweet on Covid led to objections from Singapore.
• On May 18, Kejriwal cited threat of covid virus variant seen in Singapore.
• Kejriwal had asked the Modi govt to stop flights to and from Singapore.
• Singapore clarified that virus variant seen there was first found in India.
• Subsequently, India's foreign minister said 'Delhi Chief Minister does not speak for India'.

POFMA directive issued to Facebook, Twitter, SPH Magazines over 'Singapore variant' of COVID-19 falsehood ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/pofma-covid-19-singapore-variant-facebook-twitter-hardwarezone-14843832
• A correction notice on Twitter seen on May 20, 2021, about false allegations of a "Singapore variant" of COVID-19.



Singapore Health Minister Ong Ye Kung: New B1617 coronavirus strain appears to be attacking younger children more ~ 16 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lnY0K-P2uw



Singapore: POFMA has been gazetted – it is now the law of the land ~  27 Jun 2019
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/27/pofma-has-been-gazetted-it-is-now-the-law-of-the-land/

• The introduction of POFMA triggered a shockwave of debates around the island about the need for such a law and the possibilities of how the law could be manipulated by errant government ministers to further their political agenda.
• Overwhelmingly, the concerns revolve around the issues of freedom of speech and freedom of the press.
  

[zuolun]

习近平白忙一场？揭中欧投资协议魔鬼细节 ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.huaglad.com/lovecn/20210523/432495.html

• 欧中投资协议已经谈了7年，曾多年陷入僵局。
• 去年底，终于在德国总理梅克尔（Angela Merkel）担任欧盟轮值主席任内完成谈判。
• 当时习近平直接介入，中共突然在多个关键领域如市场准入、公平竞争等做出重大让步，双方宣布完成谈判。
• 如今欧中投资协定确定在表决下冻结，显示由于价值观的分歧，欧中关系近来倒退迹象更加白热化。

中欧投资协议流产 出乎习近平意料？ ~ 22 May 2021
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20210521-%E4%B8%AD%E6%AC%A7%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%8D%8F%E8%AE%AE%E6%B5%81%E4%BA%A7-%E5%87%BA%E4%B9%8E%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E6%84%8F%E6%96%99

• 引起欧盟方面越来越抵触『欧中投资协定』还有另外一个重要的原因，这就是欧盟后来发现，这一被默克尔匆促推上马的欧中投资原则性协议，附件一一公布时，才发现里面暗藏着许多不可思议的细节。
• 法国『世界报』社论家希尔薇.科夫曼女士日前在题为“风向变了，欧洲对中国的幻想破灭”一文里对此说得再也清楚不过，文章写到：最让柏林气愤的是，他们竟陷入了北京的陷阱。
• 德国是欧盟国家中向中国出口最多的国家，一直希望维持这一势头，在习近平鼓励下，默克尔敦促欧盟诸国与北京在去年12月30日达成这一原则性协议，然而，从那时起，才一点一滴发现，“魔鬼藏在细节里”。
• 比如，在协议草案的附件II第9条中发现了这样的一句话，这就是：“获准在中国开展业务的非营利组织的领导人应该是中国公民。”具体来说，如果默克尔的基民盟的慈善机构康拉德·阿登纳基金会在中国设有办事处的话，这个办事处必须由中国人领导。显然，这是无法保证独立性的。
• 当时双方欧中投资原则性协议后，中方在其国内闭口不谈细节，欧方强调的是中方承诺将会通过取消强迫劳动的相关法律。但是法国舆论当时就对北京的承诺十分怀疑。他们举出中国当年入世时答应要在十五年后做到的市场国家的必备条件，十五年后，才发现是一场骗局。但是欧盟方面当时仍然觉得中方对保护劳工权利的承诺很重要，并把这当作是说服欧洲舆论的重要成果，在欧盟就维吾尔人权制裁北京，北京加倍反制之后，欧盟才发现几周前对北京的轻信是何等幼稚。

歐中投資協議歇菜！狠批中共「紙老虎」 歐中關係大轉向？ ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixLqYkGKZtg

EU parliament freezes China deal ratification until Beijing lifts sanctions ~ 20 May 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/eu-parliament-freezes-china-deal-ratification-until-beijing-lifts-sanctions.html

• The resolution to freeze ratification passed with 599 votes in favor, 30 votes against and 58 abstentions.
• The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment aimed to put EU companies on an equal footing in China and cement Beijing’s status as a trusted trading partner.

第一观察｜习主席新年前这场“云外交”，意义重大！ ~ 1 Jan 2021
http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2021-01/01/c_1126936448.htm

• 12月30日晚，习近平同德国、法国、欧盟领导人举行视频会晤。
• 中国和欧盟达成 [中欧投资协定] 意义重大!

[zuolun]

确诊Covid19后出现什么症状｜在马来西亚中了Covid该做什么｜分享居家隔离与隔离所的状况 ~ 12 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWjpu7zhEDA

Malaysia records 6,976 new Covid-19 cases, breaching the 6,000-mark for the 5th consecutive day ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXvliZ4-5E
• Malaysia's total Covid-19 cases at 512,091 with death toll at 2,248 as at Sunday (May 23).
• Selangor recorded the highest number of cases at 2,235, followed by Sarawak at 663 cases and Kelantan with 626.

Health Ministry to consider Kelantan, Negri Sembilan's request for field ICU ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkk58Ma6Gmo
• The Health Ministry has received numerous requests, including from Kelantan and Negri Sembilan, for the setting up of a field intensive care unit (ICU) to treat critical patients following the surge in Covid-19 cases nationwide.

MP SPEAKS | Malaysia needs new strategy to fight Covid-19 ~ 21 May 2021
https://www.malaysiakini.com/columns/575511

◤新冠又一年◢ 钟南山：大马月增10万确诊 - 8月恐破90 (podcast) ~ 21 May 2021
https://www.chinapress.com.my/20210521/%E2%97%A4%E6%96%B0%E5%86%A0%E5%8F%88%E4%B8%80%E5%B9%B4%E2%97%A2-%E9%92%9F%E5%8D%97%E5%B1%B1%EF%BC%9A%E5%A4%A7%E9%A9%AC%E6%9C%88%E5%A2%9E10%E4%B8%87%E7%A1%AE%E8%AF%8A-8%E6%9C%88%E6%81%90%E7%A0%B490/

[zuolun]

In fast-aging China, elder care costs loom large ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/fast-aging-china-elder-care-costs-loom-large
• Over the past decade, China's overall population grew at the slowest pace since the first modern census in 1953.
• This came even though the one-child policy was abolished in 2016.

第七次全国人口普查结果公布！中国人口共141178万人 ~ 11 May 2021
https://www.chinanews.com/gn/2021/05-11/9474601.shtml



中國人口跌破14億，承認了連鎖反應有多嚴重？為什麼生育從來不用計劃？ ~ 1 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukoK5231Btw
• 外媒報導中國第七次人口普查將顯示人口跌破14億；國家統計局急闢謠，為何當局不敢當下承認？連鎖反應太嚴重！計劃生育為何從一開始就很多餘？

China’s aging population is a bigger challenge than its ‘one-child’ policy, economists say ~ 28 Feb 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/chinas-aging-population-is-bigger-problem-than-one-child-policy-economists.html

易富贤：人口普查：2020年中国人口可能只12.6亿而非14亿 ~ 17 Nov 2020
https://blog.dwnews.com/post-1392904.html
• 经济数据的水分可能会被时间所消化，但人口数据是不可能长期隐瞒的。

China is a Paper Dragon

U.S. policy makers should look to the future with a little more confidence and a lot more trust in trade, markets, and the superior potential of a free people.

By David Frum
Staff writer at The Atlantic
May 4, 2021



China was mentioned only four times in Joe Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, but it shadowed almost every line of the speech. “We’re in a competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century,” Biden said. His aides describe the president as preoccupied with the challenge from China. “It informs his approach to most major topics and the president regularly raises it in meetings, whether he is discussing foreign policy or electric bus batteries,” CNN’s Jeremy Diamond reported. “And aides say Biden believes it is a key test by which historians will judge his presidency.”

As Biden said to the nation from the well of the House of Representatives, the authoritarian President Xi Jinping is “deadly earnest” about China “becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world. He and others—autocrats—think that democracy can’t compete in the 21st century with autocracies.”

So this might be a useful moment to hear a contrary voice. In 2018, the Tufts University professor Michael Beckley published a richly detailed study of Chinese military and economic weaknesses. The book is titled Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower.

The book argues that China’s economic, financial, technological, and military strength is hugely exaggerated by crude and inaccurate statistics. Meanwhile, U.S. advantages are persistently underestimated. The claim that China will “overtake” the U.S. in any meaningful way is polemical and wrong—and wrong in ways that may mislead Americans into serious self-harming mistakes. Above all, Beckley pleads with readers not to focus on the headline numbers of gross domestic product. China may well surpass the United States as the largest economy on Earth by the 2030s. China was also almost certainly the largest economy on Earth in the 1830s. A big GDP did not make China a superpower then—and it will not make China a superpower now, or so Beckley contends.

Beckley is a voracious reader of specialist Chinese military journals and economic reports. And, he argues, many of the advances cited as Chinese strengths don’t hold up to close scrutiny. American analysts often publish worries about China’s growing navy, and especially its two aircraft carriers. But, Beckley writes, “Chinese pilots fly 100 to 150 fewer hours than U.S. pilots and only began training on aircraft carriers in 2012,” and he adds that “Chinese troops spend 20 to 30 percent of their time studying communist ideology.”

When Chinese forces do train, Beckley argues, the exercises bear little resemblance to the challenges the People’s Liberation Army would face in a great-power conflict:

PLA exercises remain heavily scripted (the red team almost always wins) … Most exercises involve a single service or branch, so troops lack the ability to conduct joint operations, and assessments are often nothing more than “subjective judgments based on visual observation rather than on detailed quantitative data” and are scored “based simply on whether a training program has been implemented rather than on whether the goals of the program have been achieved.”

Worried about Chinese students’ high scores on comparative math tests? You’re looking at the curated outputs of highly selective groups of students.

Whereas public school is free through high school in the United States, China’s government only covers the costs of elementary and middle school. At many Chinese high schools, families have to pay tuition and other expenses, and these outlays are among the highest in the world. Consequently, 76 percent of China’s working-age population has not completed high school.

Things don’t improve at the college level.

Many Chinese college students describe their universities as “diploma factories,” where student-teacher ratios are double the average in U.S. universities, cheating is rampant, students spend a quarter of their time studying “Mao Zedong thought,” and students and professors are denied access to basic sources of information, such as Google Scholar and certain academic journal repositories.

Surely China is winning the industries of the future? Not really.

Chinese firms’ total spending on Research and Development as a percentage of sales revenue stalled at levels four times below the average for American firms. … Chinese firms remain dependent on foreign technologies and manual labor and have a rudimentary level of automation and digitization: on average Chinese enterprises have just nineteen robots per ten thousand employees; U.S. firms, by contrast, use an average of 176 robots per ten thousand employees.

But isn’t China sprinting to overtake the United States? Yes, but it’s stumbling badly in that pursuit.

China now leads the world in retractions of scientific studies due to fraud; one-third of Chinese scientists have admitted to plagiarizing or falsifying results (versus 2 percent of U.S. scientists); and two-thirds of China’s Research and Development spending has been lost to corruption.

Undergirding these examples and dozens more like them is Beckley’s clarifying theoretical insight: Repression is expensive.

Comparing China’s military spending to that of the United States, for example, doesn’t make much sense. The Chinese military’s first and paramount mission is preserving the power of the Chinese Communist Party against China’s own people. The U.S. military can focus entirely on external threats.

The lines that plot the comparative GDP of the United States and China distort the real balance of power between the two societies, Beckley argues, because China must devote such a large share of its resources to basic subsistence needs to avert the overthrow of the state.

Beckley dramatizes this point with historical context. The concept of GDP did not exist in the 19th century, but economists have retrospectively reconstructed those figures backward into time. They have found that in the 1800s, the Chinese empire had a GDP much larger than that of Great Britain. The Chinese army of 800,000 men also enormously exceeded Britain’s troop numbers. Yet when the two states clashed in the two Opium Wars, from 1839 to 1842 and again in 1858, China was crushingly defeated. Why?

A great part of the answer, then as now, was the cost of repression.

Nineteenth-century China faced an average of 25 local uprisings a year. Most of its troops had to be deployed to suppress rebellions and control banditry, leaving few available for war-fighting.

The next part of the answer is that mass is not power.

Although China’s resources were enormous in the aggregate, most were consumed by the basics of subsistence. In the 19th-century, Britain produced only half as much as China, but it did so with one-thirteenth the population—making more wealth available for more purposes.

A final piece of the answer is that technological copycats face huge disadvantages against technological innovators. They will always lag behind the more creative rival, not only in the factory, but on the battlefield. “Repeatedly during the Opium Wars … Chinese armies of thousands were routed in minutes by a few hundred, or even a few dozen, British troops,” Beckley notes.

Beckley does not suggest that the lopsided outcome of the Opium Wars would repeat itself in the 21st century. Anyway, nuclear powers do not fight expeditionary wars on each other’s territory. Instead, Beckley seeks to highlight the immense defects of gross GDP as a measure of national strength—factoring in the costs of repression—and the strategic predicament of China’s location, barred from the open ocean by a ring of potential enemies on its eastern front, extending from Russia, through Korea, past Japan, to the Philippines, and then to Vietnam.

I spoke with Beckley shortly before Biden’s address to ask whether he had revisited any of his assessments since finishing his book early in Donald Trump’s presidency. He said that he had become more alarmed by China’s aggressive and repressive intentions, but remained as dubious as ever about Chinese capacities.

Americans need to hear this perspective of confidence. The self-doubt that afflicts so many Americans is pushing this country to wrongheaded policies, most especially trade protectionism, and even outright trade war. Biden had it closer to right back in 2019, when he dismissed overwrought fears of China: “China’s going to eat our lunch? C’mon, man.” Since then, Biden has been pushed by political necessity to a more confrontational approach—pushed not only by a Trumpified Republican Party, but also by his own party’s turn against trade and markets. One of the swiftest critics of Biden’s “C’mon, man” comment was his then-rival Bernie Sanders, who tweeted that same day:

Since the China trade deal I voted against, America has lost over 3 million manufacturing jobs. It’s wrong to pretend that China isn’t one of our major economic competitors. When we are in the White House we will win that competition by fixing our trade policies.

Sanders lost the nomination, but he won the debate within the Democratic Party over trade policy. In his address, Biden committed to extending and enlarging “Buy American” favoritism in government procurement. His administration is maintaining Trump’s anti-China tariffs and is “reviewing”—not yet removing—tariffs against the European Union and other trade partners. Biden economic advisers warned during his campaign that trade expansion would rank low on their list of priorities, and so it is proving.

You often hear the criticism that Americans terribly miscalculated when they opened the door to freer trade with China, and received in return only a richer and more dangerous enemy. Disappointment and disillusionment are then invoked to justify more aggressive policies of confrontation. The Trump administration raised the defense budget by more than $100 billion a year, and the spending increases have continued even after the campaign against ISIS came to an end. More and more of the money is being directed to preparations for a conflict with China.

China’s language and behavior is assertive and provocative, for sure. China’s power is rising, yes. Its behavior at home and abroad is becoming more oppressive and more brutal; that’s also tragically true. But as Americans muster the courage and will to face Chinese realities, that reckoning needs also to appreciate the tremendous capabilities of this country, and the very real limits besetting China: a fast-aging population, massive internal indebtedness, and a regime whose worsening repression suggests its declining popularity.

On April 28, the Financial Times reported that the suspiciously delayed Chinese census would reveal a population decline from 2010 to 2020, the first since the state-caused famines of the 1960s. The FT report was hastily disavowed by Chinese authorities, but in a strangely ambiguous way. Whatever the census ultimately claims, and regardless of whether it is believed, the story points to two deep truths about Chinese society: It’s about to be home to a lot of old people, and trust in the state is very low, and for good reason.

As China’s population ages, it will deplete its savings. Chinese people save a lot to compensate for the state’s meager social-security provision. For three decades, the savings of ordinary people financed the spectacular borrowing of China’s state-owned enterprises. How much was borrowed? Nobody knows, because everybody lies. What happens as the savings are withdrawn to finance hundreds of millions of retirements? Again—who knows?

China misallocates capital on a massive scale. More than a fifth of China’s housing stock is empty—the detritus of a frenzied construction boom that built too many apartments in the wrong places. China overcapitalizes at home because Chinese investors are prohibited from doing what they most want to do: get their money out of China. Strict and complex foreign-exchange controls block the flow of capital. More than one-third of the richest Chinese would emigrate if they could, according to research by one of the country’s leading wealth-management firms. The next best alternative: sending their children out. Pre-pandemic, almost 1 million young Chinese attended Western universities. Pre-pandemic, only about 10,000 Americans were studying in China; single thousands were from other Western countries—and almost all of them were in the country to study language, not any academic specialty.

This is merely a sample of the gathering troubles facing America’s designated strategic competitor and economic adversary. The United States is hardly trouble-free, but if you had to choose either set of troubles, you’d surely rather face the American list than the Chinese. That’s why Biden said, “C’mon, man,” and why U.S. policy makers should look to the future with a little more confidence and a lot more trust in trade, markets, and the superior potential of a free people under an elected government.

David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy (2020). In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

[zuolun]

复旦教授陈平称: "2020年中国打赢贸易战，科技战，尤其是 「生物战」；是历史上前所未有的划时代的历史记录!" ~ 18 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t1_K1O6x2w
• 在这次贸易战，生物战以后把美国打出了原形。

SARS-CoV-2 is an unrestricted bioweapon: A truth revealed through uncovering a large-scale, organized scientific fraud ~ 8 Oct 2020
https://zenodo.org/record/4073131

• 闫丽梦博士是第一个提出「Covid-19 病毒是实验室制造」以及「疫苗起不了作用」。



Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab ~ 5 May 2020
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd



Why Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier’s arguments for COVID lab-leak don’t hold up ~ 22 Apr 2020
https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/luc-montagnier-coronavirus-wuhan-lab-pseudoscience/



David Swanson: Is coronavirus a bioweapon? ~ 27 Mar 2020
https://davidswanson.org/is-coronavirus-a-bioweapon/

Prof. Francis Boyle update on coronavirus bioweapon ~ 17 Mar 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DAI3c9wE0Q

Human Rights lawyer Prof. Francis Boyle on coronavirus pandemic ~ 14 Mar 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s56zAchvk3w
• Prof. Francis Boyle says the coronavirus is a genetically engineered bioweapon that escaped from a high-level lab in Wuhan, China.
• He maintains it shows signs of nanotechnological tinkering and the insertion of proteins from HIV, the human immunodeficiency virus.
• He alleges that U.S. researchers helped create it, and that thousands of doctors, scientists, and elected leaders are conspiring to hide the truth.

Biden shifts direction after shutting down Trump Wuhan lab investigation ~ 27 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dwQP2Xq8qg

GOP senator and doctor says evidence suggests "this virus leaked from a lab in Wuhan" ~ 26 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kNmbj8ZUjE

GOP lawmaker confronts Fauci over NIH funding going to Wuhan lab ~ 25 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKqz9wGiIKY

New evidence emerges for lab leak hypothesis ~ 24 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZniDsuCX5g

Dr. Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally ~ 24 May 2021
https://www.wfmz.com/news/cnn/editors-choice/dr-fauci-says-hes-not-convinced-covid-19-developed-naturally/video_a2b6965e-ff85-504b-8c87-60a41bc98ca0.html
• Dr. Anthony Fauci told the Poynter Institute on May 11 that he wasn't totally convinced that Covid-19 developed naturally and that he thinks that more investigation into the origin is needed.



小針針導致病毒變種——愛滋病毒發現者、諾貝爾獎病毒學家警告打小針針前一定要知道的五件事 ~ 23 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3mcPTH4-IY
• 為什麼疫情之初，中國要銷毀病毒基因序列，因為病毒不是只有一種，一但公佈原始基因，就沒辦法說明是病毒變異，而是生化武器攻擊。

以色列借種率（諧音）全球第一，驚人報告出爐，原來年輕人⋯⋯ ~ 18 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgwxfHMfqXk

以色列超1.2万人接种辉瑞疫苗后新冠检测呈阳性 ~ 22 Jan 2021
https://wap.peopleapp.com/article/rmh18255845/rmh18255845
• 约18.9万人在接种疫苗后接受了新冠病毒检测，其中超过1.24万人的检测结果呈阳性，占总人数的6.6%。
• 大多数人是在接种了第一剂疫苗不久后被感染的，这段时间内疫苗尚未生效。
• 然而，接种两周后仍有1410人的检测结果呈阳性，按照预期结果，此时部分免疫应该已经生效。

[zuolun]

閆麗夢博士：我可能是唯一能說出真相的人！武漢當局已知病毒人傳人，世界衛生組織早知情；在親自調查武漢神祕病毒的過程中，揭開中共不想告訴人們的秘密！ ~ 13 Aug 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v18yQsboGHU
• 閆麗夢說：「我意識到我或許是唯一一個，能夠向世界講出這個真相的人，但是我真的不能在香港講。只要我一站出來，我就會被失蹤，那麼你就什麼也不知道了。」



何大一：新冠病毒起源于中国 ~ 5 Mar 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9BHoHy46to

• 為什麼疫情之初，中國要銷毀病毒基因序列? 因為病毒不是只有一種，一但公佈原始基因，就沒辦法說明是病毒變異，而是生化武器攻擊。
• "If the only information you're allowing to be weighed is provided by the very people who have everything to lose by revealing such evidence, that just doesn't come close to passing the sniff test." ~ David A. Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford

"Why did you dismiss the lab-leak theory?": Rubio grills Fauci on past statements of COVID-19 origin ~ 28 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilt_NcaIIRk

印度海嘯式疫情後 全球的後疫情關鍵 詭譎病毒變種迅速 自然造成難? ~ 26 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9L4cOGrai0
• 中共为何让解放军首席生化武器防御专家陈薇少将接管武汉P4病毒实验室?

中国解放军首席生化武器防御专家陈薇少将（Major General Chen Wei, China's top biodefense expert）



'Unrelenting attacks from left-wing media' to stop COVID-19 origins investigation: Sharri Markson ~ 26 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb8Eefwti5M
• COVID-19 origins: China must be accountable.

Chinese state media is turning on Fauci amid Wuhan lab controversy ~ 26 May 2021
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/26/china/china-wuhan-lab-coronavirus-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
• Dr. Anthony Fauci remarks that he is no longer convinced Covid-19 pandemic originated naturally.
• 福奇沒有轉向，他只是在配合拜登演戲。

[zuolun]

1986 Singapore: Collapse of Hotel New World (新加坡 - 1986年实龙岗路新世界酒店倒塌惨案)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMt2wWBX5z0
• 新世界酒店所處的聯益大廈為位處實龍崗路和奧雲路交界的六層高建築物，倒塌事件後有50人被困，其中17人獲救，33人死亡。

賽格搖晃，原來有三大原因，哪一個都和官方解釋無關？ ~ 26 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFdYbGq5xsQ
• 全球超高建築，爲何只有賽格用了一種特別工藝？
• 2.7天一層的神話速度，隱藏著什麼祕密？

赛格大厦接连晃惊动广东官员 安民告示：“大楼结构整体性能满足要求” ~ 25 May 2021
https://www.voachinese.com/a/China-orders-prompt-probe-into-swaying-Shenzhen-skyscraper-20210525/5903515.html
• 深圳摩天大楼赛格广场大厦因数次摇晃已于5月21日被关闭。

赛格大厦被揭已连晃8天 6年前就晃过一次 ~ 22 May 2021
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2021/05/21/a103125069.html
• 2021年5月18日，中国广东省深圳赛格广场上的赛格大厦发生明显晃动，引发海内外舆论关注。



SEG Plaza evacuation: Shaking China skyscraper sends shoppers fleeing ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57161083
• The SEG Plaza in Shenzhen is just outside the top 100 tallest buildings in China.
• People in Shenzhen reported to have fled the 73-story SEG Plaza after the building tilted on its foundations.
• No earthquake recorded in the area on May 18, 2021.

[zuolun]

Is it time to review China’s ‘developing country’ status at the WTO, considering its economic might? ~ 14 May 2020
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/05/14/is-it-time-to-review-chinas-developing-country-status-at-the-wto-considering-its-economic-might/

• The question of Chinese exploitation of WTO arises due to the economic explosion China has achieved over 30 years.
• It is the world’s second largest economy and yet unlike any other country enjoys the economic benefits arising out of being categorised as a developing country.

「天舟二号」货运飞船发射任务取得圆满成功 ~ 30 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EViGLX12ODQ

Fully automatic docking of China Tianzhou-2 cargo spacecraft and space station ~ 30 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcw7lI_e25A
• 中國天舟二號貨運飛船與空間站全自動對接。



How China is taking advantage of its WTO Nation Status ~ 5 Sep 2020
https://jingdaily.com/how-china-is-taking-advantage-of-its-wto-nation-status/

• That’s because giving up the self-declared status of a “developing country” means losing “special and differential treatment.”
• China now enjoys the non-reciprocal preferential treatment, which means that developed nations are bonded to offer “special and differential treatment provisions” to China.

Time for China to accept it is no longer a 'developing country'

Graduation would have benefits for Beijing as well as other nations

By David Ahlstrom
August 26, 2020 05:00 JST

Professor David Ahlstrom is acting chairman of the Department of Management of The Chinese University of Hong Kong Business School.

China is clearly no longer a poor country after four decades of high and steady economic growth.

According to official data, its economy returned to growth in the April-June quarter, expanding 3.2% even as many major developed economies slowed further under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Early this year, China's National Bureau of Statistics published figures showing annual per capita gross domestic product had surpassed $10,000 for the first time while private counts show the country has more billionaires among its populace than any other except the U.S.

China's sustained economic growth has drawn attention from other countries seeking ideas for accelerating their own development. But it has also prompted the U.S. and a number of other advanced economies to argue that China has already graduated from the "developing country" status that entitles it to preferential treatment as an emerging market under the rules of the World Trade Organization and other international agreements.

China, seeing little to gain from such a change, points to indicators such as its infant mortality and adult illiteracy rates as well as average life expectancy at birth to argue that it still should be considered a developing economy for purposes of trade and aid.

Indeed, China also falls well short of developed countries in measures such as per capita income and the stability of its institutions. But the key challenges facing China have less in common with those facing countries like Myanmar and Laos and instead are more like those of "aspirant economies" such as Malaysia and Turkey.

Such countries are confronted by the need to develop higher value-added, differentiated products which are often associated with branding or higher technology as they can no longer rely on low wages and low-cost production to drive development. Those which struggle to resolve this problem can get stuck in the middle-income trap, where growth tends to slow or even stagnate at an average income level of about $12,000 as has occurred in Egypt, South Africa, and Venezuela.

China has certainly come a long way from the early 1970s when per capita income was only around $120 a year. Income growth took off as economic reforms enabling entrepreneurship and new venture creation began in 1979 such that by 1997, the World Bank had officially recognized China as a lower-middle income economy. In 2010, the bank upgraded China to the upper-middle income level.

What has been most impressive about China's growth is not so much its magnitude, as Japan, South Korea and several other Asian economies earlier experienced comparably strong, long-term growth. But in China's case, gross domestic product growth has been exceptionally stable for over four decades with very few stumbles.

Aspirant economies' institutions can generally be labeled as mostly stable, but evolving. The legal systems of aspirant economies are often developed to a significant extent but enforcement and the application of the law in areas such as property rights can be erratic.

There is evidence from aspirant economies that the government can play a key role in encouraging innovation and other aspects of improving corporate competitiveness to facilitate the move up to high income status. In particular, government can help by removing barriers to innovation and fostering indigenous technological and brand development.

China today already has a strong focus on moving up the value chain and becoming a world technology leader. Unlike in some Western countries, state-related entities in China are taking on much of this work of acquiring and improving foreign technology to help advance the capacity of Chinese industry. As China is still playing catch-up in many sectors in terms of technology and productivity, it may be able to continue for a number of years to acquire and improve established technology product designs.

Yet as China starts to reach the middle income trap level of $12,000 to $15,000 over the next decade, incremental improvements will generate less value. Chinese companies will have to develop more indigenous technology and build brand names through improved quality and service. The government can help in this endeavor but individual enterprises will have to take the lead.

Aspirant economies that are not able to develop higher value-added, differentiated products will find it difficult to move up into the ranks of developed economies. China is confronting this very problem now but can learn from the examples of countries like Japan and South Korea in fostering indigenous technologies and brands as well as from the experience of others that have largely failed in this endeavor.

China is no longer an emerging economy and probably has not been one for nearly a decade. While the U.S. Trade Representative may have acted hastily in declaring that it would start considering China as a developed country for trade purposes last February, multilateral bodies should take a fresh look at such countries that have long ceased to be "emerging."

While China values its status as a developing economy in terms of trade privileges and obligations under climate change agreements regulations, Beijing should appreciate that being recognized as "developed" would have its own benefits.

China's success at bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control within its borders, constructing new hospitals in a matter of days and developing new testing methods as well as managing other regional geopolitical challenges have given Beijing a chance to show its leadership and build its influence. A developed China exercising responsible leadership is vital to the stability of Asia and the effort to combat poverty everywhere.

[zuolun]

五一旅遊傳染鏈延長 瀋陽已隔離4萬多人 ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT1ILN6a-E0
• 這波疫情感染源頭不明。

游客大喊想回家！五一彻底爆了：2亿人出游，西湖断桥突变人桥，长城紧急红色预警 ~ 1 May 2021
https://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2021-05-01/doc-ikmxzfmm0120832.shtml
• 据交通运输部介绍，预计五一假期全国铁路、公路、水路、民航发送的客运量将达2.65亿人次，日均5304万人次，基本恢复到2019年同期水平。

China reports 23 new coronavirus cases on May 31 vs 27 previous day ~ 1 Jun 2021
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-reports-23-new-coronavirus-cases-may-31-vs-27-previous-day-2021-06-01/

广州昨日新增10+2，佛山这些居民今天起居家隔离 ~ 1 Jun 2021
http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2021-06-01/1770273.html

變種毒株傳播力強 廣州31日晚「軟封城」 ~ 31 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuhxGeTjbNg

深圳暴发疫情，打疫苗与核酸检测的人超多 ~ 30 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GT5v1w5ZBkQ

衝啊! 廣東爆本土疫情 人群衝破門搶疫苗.半夜排檢測 ~ 27 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArnOjFp9MDI



中國本土疫情惡化！遼寧營口再現封樓封戶 ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpa4yBn2k08



中國疫情再燃一口氣篩檢百萬人！？五一長假點火 安徽、遼寧擴散到北京！？ ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO-ORyndPOI

[zuolun]

印度變種 傳55國，免疫逃逸證據確鑿！哪種 疫苗 防 印度 變種？ ~ 29 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhSiO-foDFA



Is Ivermectin a wonder drug? Can it be a miracle cure for COVID-19? ~ 19 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1iKNSWxJMU

• We are in the middle of 2021 and the novel coronavirus has already claimed over 3.3 million lives! What will end the COVID-19 pandemic?
• Surely, vaccines will be a major contributor. However, the process of vaccination is slow, expensive and highly political.
• Drugs such as dexamethasone, Remdesivir and various monoclonal antibody treatments have been granted emergency use approval for the treatment of certain hospitalised Covid-19 patients.
• But, the availability of these drugs varies wildly around the world, and supplies are particularly scarce in the most resource-limited settings.
• In these conditions, and with large numbers of new cases still being reported in various countries, a common antiparasitic medication is being touted as a miracle drug for COVID-19 cure, by doctors and campaigners the world over.
• It is called Ivermectin.

Ivermectin for Covid-19 treatment: Why are the scientists and doctors divided? ~ 11 May 2021
https://www.livemint.com/science/health/ivermectin-for-covid-19-treatment-why-are-the-scientists-and-doctors-divided-11620740116617.html

• Following Goa government’s prescription of ivermectin to all persons above 18 years of age as a prophylactic treatment of covid-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) waved out a caution flag against the drug.
  

Ivermectin prophylactic study from India ~ 6 May 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYv30g7TKVM

• Ivermectin in India, Prophylactic role of ivermectin in SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers.

Ivermectin dose for COVID (Prophylaxis, Acute Disease, Long Haulers) ~ 25 Feb 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7RqPjDZyeg

• In this talk, we will discuss the possible dose of Ivermectin for prophylaxis, during the acute disease, and for the long haulers.
• We will look at the dosage used by various studies, myself for my patients, and recommended by the physicians at FLCCC.net.
• Note: this is not a prescription. This material is for the educational purpose only.

印度、墨西哥沒有小針針病例大幅下降原因是……主流媒體不報導！福奇玩完了！ ~ 2 Jun 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytfUF61Rbk4

WHO scientist in dock for opposing Ivermectin’s use for Covid-19 cure ~ 2 Jun 2021
https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/who-scientist-in-dock-for-opposing-ivermectins-use-for-covid-19-cure

• A 51-page legal notice was served on Geneva-based Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organisation chief scientist by the Mumbai-based Indian Bar Association, a lawyers’ forum, for opposing use of Ivermectin for treating Covid patients.
• It has threatened to prosecute her “under sections 302, 304 (II), 88, 120 (B) and 34 and other provisions of IPC and under Disaster Management Act, 2005, in the appropriate courts of law having jurisdiction for each death caused due to your act of commission and omission.”

World Health Organization (WHO) chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan



Kodagu doctor writes to Health Minister suggesting use of Ivermectin to treat COVID patients ~ 1 Jun 2021
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/karnataka/2021/jun/01/kodagu-doctor-writes-to-health-minister-suggesting-use-of-ivermectin-to-treat-covid-patients-2310375.html

• In her letter to the Health Minister, Dr Kavery has stated that Ivermectin, particularly in the early stages of the disease, is highly effective and very safe as it does not have any side effects.

Ivermectin obliterates 97% of Delhi cases ~ 1 Jun 2021
https://www.thedesertreview.com/news/national/ivermectin-obliterates-97-percent-of-delhi-cases/article_6a3be6b2-c31f-11eb-836d-2722d2325a08.html

• Dr. Pierre Kory told the world on December 8, 2020, that Ivermectin "obliterates" this virus.
• Obliterate means to decimate, demolish, or annihilate. It means to eliminate or destroy all trace, indication, or significance.

[zuolun]

纪录片: 六月的黑夜 (Black night in June)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WgD9qidYZc

尘封的六四照片：1989年5月天安门 (podcast) ~ 3 Jun 2021
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/21/5/28/n12981291.htm



吾尔开希: 当时学生走上街头，是为了要求政府贯彻承诺 ~ 2 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyA4bhEqQMs
• "八十年代是中国非常精彩的十年,中国走向改革开放，也是共产党的口号。
• 但是这个改革开放，只是共产党只愿意很被动地做经济改革。
• 为了得到人民的支持，向中国老百姓做了大量的承诺，会让中国走向更开放。
• 当时的学生走上街头，就是为了要求政府贯彻自己的承诺。



袁木：89年64天安門解放軍清場「沒人死亡」論的爭議人物” ~ 18 Dec 2018
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-46595813
• 袁木病逝終年91歲。

[Jawplace]

MYEG Buy or SEll?

https://jawplace.com/myeg-more-than-just-egovernment-services/

[zuolun]

JB land sale to help S P Setia reduce its net gearing ~ 11 May 2021
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/05/11/jb-land-sale-to-help-s-p-setia-reduce-its-net-gearing
• S P Setia’s sale of eight parcels of freehold land measuring 959.7 acres in Johor Baru for RM518.1mil to Scientex Bhd.
• This should help reduce the group’s estimated net gearing for FY22 to FY24 by 1% to 3%, or to range from 0.48 to 0.50 times.
• The impact on gearing in FY22 is minimal, lowering it marginally to 0.63 times (from 0.65 times) once the disposal materialises.

SP Setia ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

SP Setia closed with a long-legged doji unchanged @ RM1.06 with 710,000 shares done on 4 Jun 2021.

Immediate support @ RM1.01, immediate resistance @ RM1.08.



SP Setia closed @ RM1.06 on 4 Jun 2021.

[zuolun]

苏小妹：

皇爷的企业；就算是一堆烂泥也会被扶上墙！

OLAM ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

OLAM closed with a spinning top @ S$1.85 (+0.03, +1.6%) with 1.32m shares done on 7 Jun 2021.

Immediate support @ S$1.81, immediate resistance @ S$1.90.



OLAM ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

OLAM closed with a black marubozu @ S$1.56 (-0.03, -1.9%) with 1.44m shares done on 1 Feb 2021.

Immediate support @ S$1.53, immediate resistance @ S$1.61.



OLAM ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

OLAM closed with a white marubozu @ S$1.69 (+0.13, +8.3%) with 4.02m shares done on 18 Jan 2021.

Immediate support @ S$1.61, immediate resistance @ S$1.72.



OLAM closed @ S$1.85 on 7 Jun 2021.

[zuolun]

OLAM Vs SP Setia ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

OLAM ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

OLAM closed with a spinning top @ S$1.85 (+0.03, +1.6%) with 1.32m shares done on 7 Jun 2021.

Immediate support @ S$1.81, immediate resistance @ S$1.90.



SP Setia ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel

SP Setia closed with a long-legged doji unchanged @ RM1.06 with 710,000 shares done on 4 Jun 2021.

Immediate support @ RM1.01, immediate resistance @ RM1.08.



OLAM closed @ S$1.85 on 7 Jun 2021.



SP Setia closed @ RM1.06 on 4 Jun 2021.

[zuolun]

苏小妹：

Ethereum (weekly chart) 的图形显示了 Tower Top formation；既熊市（下跌趋势）刚开始。(Tower Top is the opposite direction of Tower Bottom)

Crypto market faces 'moment of truth' after crash wipes value from Ethereum and Dogecoin ~ 8 Jun 2021
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/bitcoin-price-crash-ethereum-dogecoin-trump-b1861478.html

• The price of bitcoin fell suddenly by 10% on Tuesday (8 Jun), prompting a market-wide downturn that saw billions wiped from Ethereum (ether), Cardano (ada) and dogecoin.
• Bitcoin is trading at just above $32,000, having reached close to $40,000 at the end of last week.[/b]
• The latest dip took the overall market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined below $1.5 trillion for the first time since May.

The FBI likely exploited sloppy password storage to seize Colonial Pipeline bitcoin ransom ~ 8 Jun 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/fbi-likely-exploited-sloppy-password-storage-to-seize-colonial-ransom.html

黑客组织欺诈勒索巨额洗钱 比特币价格再遭血洗！ ~ 8 Jun 2021
https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/lczx/2021-06-08/doc-ikqcfnaz9905179.shtml

• 5月，互联网黑客犯罪组织“暗面”（DarkSide）与美国FBI较量，一度导致美东石油供应瘫痪，这场美国历史上最具社会破坏性的网络攻击以FBI的胜利暂告一段落。
• 6月8日消息，FBI追回全美最大燃油管道客隆尼尔公司（Colonial Pipeline）被勒索的63.7枚比特币赎金。
• 由于受到比特币的价格波动性的影响，5月比特币价格持续暴跌，当时支付“暗面”组织折合四百四十万美元的75枚比特币赎金，追回时价格已腰斩，这63.7枚比特币现在折合230万美元。
• 受到该消息影响，加密行情再度暴跌。截至发文，比特币、以太坊等暴跌超过10%，比特币跌破33000美元。

Ether price indicator turns bearish for first time since October ~ 8 Jun 2021
https://www.coindesk.com/ether-price-indicator-turns-bearish-for-first-time-since-october

• The weekly MACD for bitcoin turned bearish in the second half of April, signaling scope for a sell-off. Back then, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value was trading above $50,000. Prices fell by 35% in May, hitting lows near $30,000.
• Ether, the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, was trading near $2,500 at press time, representing a 3% drop on the day and a 9% decline on a 24-hour basis.

[zuolun]

• 马来西亚与新加坡的医护人员在接种疫苗时；是无须戴手套的。

Top Glove delays Hong Kong IPO after U.S. ban on its products ~ 9 Jun 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-glove-delays-hong-kong-085823739.html

Malaysia's Top Glove waits for US Customs to verify remedial labour action ~ 9 Jun 2021
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/top-glove-malaysia-us-customs-labour-sales-results-14978612

Top Glove's 3QFY21 net profit falls 29% q-o-q to RM2b, declares 18 sen dividend ~ 9 Jun 2021
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-glove-3q-net-profit-rm204b-rm348m-year-earlier

TOPGLOV ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP RM3.32

TOPGLOV closed with a spinning top @ RM4.72 (-0.08, -1.7%) with 16.4m shares done on 11 Jun 2021.

Immediate support @ RM4.70, immediate resistance @ RM5.10.



TOPGLOV closed @ RM4.72 on 11 Jun 2021.



马来西亚：疫苗打不打由你，但疫情真的比疫苗恐怖百万倍！打疫苗后的48小时，会有什么副作用？ ~ 1 Jun 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqaa-4KVnbs

新加坡總理李顯龍接種新冠疫苗　亞洲首針！望秋天前讓全國民施打 ~ 9 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBAlBDyv8zQ



Glove and other PPE guidance for COVID-19 vaccine administration ~ 23 Dec 2020
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/COVID-19VaccineGloveGuidance.pdf