Author Topic: Banks  (Read 5928 times)

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Re: Banks
« Reply #50 on: March 12, 2017, 03:33:17 PM »
The banks can take this rally higher than you can believe.

With the U.S. economy humming along, it no longer needs the help of the Fed. And right now there are many companies that need higher rates to make more money, and not many that will get hurt by it. In particular, the financials need higher rates.

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Re: Banks
« Reply #50 on: March 12, 2017, 03:33:17 PM »

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Re: Banks
« Reply #51 on: March 12, 2017, 04:15:25 PM »
NEW YORK (March 11): Crude oil resumed a sharp decline and global equity markets rose on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report drove home the strength of the world's biggest economy and set the stage for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

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Re: Banks
« Reply #52 on: March 14, 2017, 11:20:03 AM »
CIMB Research retained its “overweight” call on banks given its expected recovery in net profit growth, undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yield of 4.3% on average.
 
 The research house’s top pick is RHB Bank Bhd, while it also has an “add” call on Affin Holdings Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank).

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Re: Banks
« Reply #53 on: March 15, 2017, 11:33:31 AM »
PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian banking sector is sailing towards a rosy performance in 2017 as it is projected to register a better net profit growth this year amid a challenging business environment.

Banks ..... just close eyes and masuk$$$  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: Esee moni for all  :cash: :cash: :cash:

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Re: Banks
« Reply #54 on: March 17, 2017, 10:20:22 PM »
KUALA LUMPUR: Credit-Suisse Research believes the 45-month 34% US dollar underperformance of Malaysian equities (20% in local currency terms) was warranted but it has now reached an end game.
 
In a recent research report, it said it had now turned constructive on Malaysia for 10 reasons. They are:

* The consensus GDP growth forecasts are showing early signs of upgrades

* Earnings revisions have turned positive for the first time in close to five years;

* The ringgit appears attractive at current levels after significant devaluation;

* Equities have undershot their typical association with relative value creation;

* Repair in the macro environment benefits the heavyweight banking sector;

* Consumer sentiment in the doldrums appears set to recover;

* Its macro regression model warrants 8% potential upside for MSCI Malaysia;

* Malaysian equities have so far lagged the recovery in oil prices;

* Malaysia continues to be a consistently attractive yield play in EM; and

* Fund positioning and analyst recommendations are extremely bearish.


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Re: Banks
« Reply #55 on: March 18, 2017, 07:40:06 AM »
KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia capped the week on a strong note as trading value surged to RM5bil, the highest since May 31, 2016, powered by foreign fund buying of banks, Axiata and Petronas Chemicals after a positive outlook from Credit Suisse Research.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #56 on: March 20, 2017, 07:40:31 AM »
Ezra files for U.S. bankruptcy as marine debt crunch spreads ~ 19 Mar 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/ezra-files-for-u-s-bankruptcy-amid-hostile-creditors-faceoff
DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s loan exposure to Ezra and related companies is estimated at S$637 million, according to a CIMB report dated Feb. 2. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. has S$300 million and United Overseas Bank Ltd. has S$166 million, assuming the debt of each company in the Ezra group is equally split among its principal bankers.
  • Company joins Swiber, Swissco in fending off hostile creditors
  • Decline in oil prices led to project delays, amassed debt


Nam Cheong's auditors cast doubt on company's ability to continue as going concern

17 Mar 2017

SINGAPORE: The independent auditors of Nam Cheong have issued a report indicating the existence of a material uncertainty exists that may cast doubt on company's ability to continue as going concern.

In a filing on Friday night, Nam Cheong announced BDO LLP, the independent auditors of offshore support vessels builder, have included an emphasis of matter with respect to material uncertainty related to going concern in their report related to the FY16 financial statements.

The auditors pointed out that for the financial year ended Dec 31 2016, the group posted a significant decrease in revenue and incurred a net loss of RM42.8 million ($13.5 million).

And as at Dec 31 2016, the group's loans and borrowings that were classified as current amounted to RM948.7 million of which RM278.6 million pertained to medium term notes that are due for repayment on August 28 2017.

These amounts exceeded the group's cash and cash equivalents of RM162.6 million as at Dec 31 2016.

"These events or conditions, along with other matters as set forth in the note, indicate that a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern," warned BDO.

Nam Cheong has bit hit hard by the fall in the price of oil from over US$100 per barrel in 2014 to around US$50 today.

The company also has had trouble generating cash flow from its business.

In the five years from 2011 to 2015, Nam Cheong had generated positive operating cash flow in only three years.

Moreover, the company's total operating cash flow in that five-year block had been a negative RM503 million.

Shares of Nam Cheong closed at 5 cents on Friday before the announcement.

Wrestling with life support in Singapore ~ 5 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-06/wrestling-with-corporate-life-support-in-singapore
While the legal system is well-versed in the challenges of debt defaults, creditors are new to the game. In their enthusiasm to get a result, bondholders and banks are pushing companies into liquidation, the worst outcome for all stakeholders.

Ezra liquidation to hit DBS the hardest

3 Feb 2017

The bank's exposure to the beleaguered group is around $637m.

As Ezra is foreseen to face liquidation, CIMB expects DBS to be hit the hardest, as the bank's exposure to the group is estimated to be $637m.

Ezra has called for a trading halt at the start of the month pending the release of an announcement. CIMB said this could be related to the results of its discussions with lenders and other stakeholders regarding its financial position, which could result in the group, its JV or subsidiaries’ liquidation in the worst case scenario.

"As of 31 Aug 2016, the group had US$989m of term loans and bills payable to banks, including US$568m from 75.46%-owned EMAS Offshore Limited and US$150m from 60.9%-owned Triyards Holdings Limited," CIMB explained.

The firm pointed out that DBS has the largest exposure to the Ezra group of companies at $637m, followed by OCBC at $300m and UOB at $166m. DBS's exposure is due to its lending to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea, given that it was the co-lead arranger for the loan facility for EMAS Chiyoda’s main vessel, the Lewek Constellation.

"Should the entire Ezra group go into liquidation, the banks will have to recognise their exposures as NPLs and make adequate provisions for the unrecoverable amounts," CIMB stated.

It furthered, "Based on 40-80% write-down in book value of fixed assets across the group, we estimate DBS will have to make specific provisions (SPs) of 8-16bp, OCBC: 9-12bp and UOB: 6-7bp. This assumes no SPs have been taken yet and will impact DBS’s FY17F net profit by 6-12%, OCBC: 5-8%, and UOB: 4-5%."

Investors beware – All may not be well at Nam Cheong Ltd

By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq
January 5, 2016

Offshore support vessels builder Nam Cheong Ltd (SGX: N4E) seems to have been hit hard by the sharp decline in the price of oil over the past year.

In the first nine months of 2015, Nam Cheong saw its revenue and profit record year-on-year falls of 50% and 81% to RM708 million and RM50 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the company’s operating cash flow for the same period also fell sharply from a negative RM20 million a year ago to a negative RM591 million.

Additionally, Nam Cheong’s accounts receivables and inventories had both grown. The former had jumped by 60% since the end of 2014 to RM780 million as at 30 September 2015 while the latter had increased by 57% to RM1.6 billion over the same timeframe. A situation of declining sales coupled with growing accounts receivables and inventories can be a yellow flag for more potential problems ahead.

That’s not all. Nam Cheong ended the third-quarter of 2015 with more than RM1.9 billion in debt. As the table below illustrates, the company’s net-debt (total borrowings minus total cash) to equity ratio has shot up from just 41.5% at the end of 2014 to 95.5% in the latest quarter.



All these financial troubles, likely due to tumbling oil prices, have pushed Nam Cheong to a situation where it is close to missing a financial covenant set by some of its creditors in that its interest coverage ratio shall not at any time be less than 3:1 (covenants are terms set by creditors that borrowers have to fulfill).

With its deteriorating financials over the past twelve months, Nam Cheong had launched a consent solicitation exercise this morning to seek consent from some of its bondholders to amend the aforementioned financial covenant. The company also hopes to get approval from the same set of bondholders to waive any non-compliance, or potential non-compliance, of the covenant for the test period ended 31 December 2015.

Although the solicitation exercise might not signify that Nam Cheong is facing any bankruptcy risk, it does show that the company is currently caught in a situation of having high debt but falling revenue which it did not anticipate previously. And for me, this says a lot about the risk management ability (or perhaps, lack thereof) of Nam Cheong’s management team.

There are other pressing issues at hand for Nam Cheong. If oil prices do not recover soon, the company may likely continue to produce negative free cash flow from its business. Moreever, even if the ongoing consent solicitation exercise is successful, Nam Cheong might still face serious refinancing risks going forward given that it has S$365 million worth of bonds coming due by 2019. These are things that both current and prospective investors in the shares and bonds of Nam Cheong may want to keep in mind.

Building billions with $3.40 ~ 11 Oct 2015
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2015/10/11/building-billions-with-340-sarawaks-tycoon-datuk-tiong-su-kouk-learned-from-a-young-age-that-wealth/
Sarawak’s tycoon Datuk Tiong Su Kouk ventured into boat-building some 40 years ago under the name Nam Cheong. Today, this Singapore-listed company is a leading global marine player and Malaysia’s largest builder of offshore support vessels (OSV).


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #57 on: March 20, 2017, 08:34:36 AM »
Too many malls can spell trouble for banks ~ 15 Mar 2017
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/03/15/too-many-malls-can-spell-trouble-for-banks/



Trouble building in Singapore ~ 19 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-19/trouble-building-in-singapore
Investors bemoaning Singapore banks' fraught relationship with oil-services companies may be overlooking another brewing area of trouble -- building and construction firms.



Singapore banks put oil and gas woes behind, but 2017 prospects modest ~ 7 Feb 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/17/singapore-banks-put-oil-and-gas-woes-behind-but-2017-prospect-modest.html



The big read: At some suburban malls, retailers confront the sound of silence ~ 21 Jan 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/business/some-suburban-malls-retailers-confront-sound-silence


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #58 on: March 20, 2017, 08:59:45 AM »


Ezra's bankruptcy filing could shake sentiment

Meanwhile, traders seek signs regarding US Fed's tone on pace of future rate hikes

By Jacqueline Woo
20 Mar 20!7

The bankruptcy filing of troubled oilfield services firm Ezra Holdings over the weekend could put a dent in market sentiment when trading opens today.

The group yesterday announced that it has filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code.

The move, Ezra said, is intended to "optimise the scope and extent of the restructuring options available and to protect the interests of all stakeholders of the company (including its creditors and shareholders) from hostile actions that could harm the company and its stakeholders by diminishing the group's value".

A Chapter 11 filing typically protects the debtor from legal and enforcement action worldwide.

Ezra also said in a separate statement that it will be convening an informal meeting with bond holders of its $150 million of 4.875 per cent notes, which are due next year, to provide updates on the situation.

Its shares have been suspended since last Wednesday, when they traded at an all-time low of 1.1 cents.

The group's latest filing comes after its debt-ridden joint venture Emas Chiyoda filed for bankruptcy protection in the US late last month - adding to the troubles faced by the local offshore oil and gas services sector, which has been hit hard by the oil price weakness.

Ezra's bankruptcy filing is likely to have a trickle-down impact on other firms in the sector, as well as on the local banks.

"Offshore and marine companies and banks would be negatively affected by this development. No one knows if they have fully provided for Ezra," UOB Kay Hian analyst Foo Zhiwei told Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, much of the market's focus will likely remain on the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates, as expected, last week, without taking on a more aggressive stance on the pace of subsequent hikes.

Traders will be looking out for any signs of clarification regarding the Fed's tone at member speeches throughout the week, including that of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari, the only dissenter on the latest rate hike. Fed chair Janet Yellen is due to give a speech on Thursday.

The lack of commitment to free trade from global financial leaders at the recently concluded G-20 meeting will also set the tone for trading.

IG market strategist Jingyi Pan noted that several Asian markets, including Singapore, managed to push higher last week, taking cues from the US and remaining largely resilient. "The week ahead could see markets tested by economic indicators instead," she said.

Singapore's industrial production figures for last month are due this Friday - with growth expected to improve, said a Moody's Analytics report. "Early indicators suggest that manufacturing in Singapore is expanding well, though not as fast as at the end of 2016," it noted.

The Straits Times Index added 5.86 points or 0.19 per cent to 3,169.38 last Friday - up by 36.03 points or 1.15 per cent for the week.

Property stocks continued to be in play in the wake of the recent changes to cooling measures. City Developments, for example, jumped by 4.5 per cent for the week to finish at $10.61 on Friday.

M1's three largest shareholders - Axiata Group, Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation and Singapore Press Holdings - are undertaking a "strategic review" of their stakes in the telco.

The shareholders said after markets closed on Friday that they have jointly appointed Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) as financial adviser to assist with the strategic review, which "may or may not lead to a transaction".

Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #59 on: March 20, 2017, 09:53:35 AM »
EMAS Chiyoda Subsea tied to Singapore's Ezra Holdings files for Chapter 11 in US ~ 28 Feb 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/firm-tied-to-singapores-ezra-holdings-files-for-chapter-11-in-us.html
  • DBS Group Holdings, among its top creditors with a $84.6 million exposure.
  • Norway's DNB Bank also has a $14.6 million claim.
  • Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) has $13.1 million

Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2017, 01:06:54 PM »
Malaysian banks’ asset quality likely to drop ~ 20 Mar 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/20/banks-asset-quality-likely-to-drop/
Last year, the Malaysian banking system’s gross impaired-loan (GIL) ratio stood at 1.6%, slightly higher than that of Singapore at 1% but lower than the Philippines (2%), Thailand (2.8%) and Indonesia (2.9%).


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #61 on: March 22, 2017, 06:44:37 AM »


Just when you thought Singapore's O&G woes were over, they've surfaced again

21 Mar 2017

SINGAPORE: Maybank Kim Eng Research believes profits for all three of Singapore's main banks may fall by 3-8% this FY17E, given the estimated $217-748 million of total claims and borrowings to the beleaguered oilfield services firm, Ezra Holdings.

Ezra on Saturday filed for US Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

While banks do not disclose their exposure or provisions to the group, media reports and brokerages have made broad assumptions based on court filings and bank borrowings.

In a Tuesday report, Maybank analyst Ng Li Hiang says that although banks have already classified loasn to Ezra as non-performing loans (NPLs) and made provisions for it, there is reason to believe that provisions will remain elevated, while risks of further defaults also remain.

"However, the rate of new NPL formation from the oil and gas (O&G) sector is likely to ease this year as we believe the chunky exposures have been recognised as NPLs. We currently estimate specific provisions over average net loans to be c.29-37bps across the banks for FY17E," explains Ng.

The research house has therefore highlighted DBS as its preferred stock among the banking sector as it remains positive on the bank's ability to drive pre-provision profits in the face of asset-quality deterioration, particularly for its O&G industry exposure.

DBS has been rated "hold" at a target price of $18.13, while OCBC and UOB have been given "sell" and "hold" recommendations at target prices of $8.05 and $19.54 respectively.

As at 11am, shares of DBS are trading 0.4% higher at $19.08. OCBC is up 0.1% at $9.64, while shares of UOB are trading 3 cents lower at $21.83.

Looser property curbs won’t stop prices falling: Fitch ~ 16 Mar 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/business/looser-property-curbs-wont-stop-prices-falling-fitch
Oversupply and rising interest rates will persist, and house prices are likely to fall by another 2% to 5% over the next 2 years, said a Fitch report released yesterday.



RHB Securities Research: Singapore Banks

13 Mar 2017

While the property-cooling measure tweaks are minor, in our view, the benefits to the three banks will vary as their exposure to property loans differ a fair bit. OCBC and UOB's exposure to housing loans stands at 27% each, whilst DBS's is a lower 21%. UOB has the highest percentage exposure to building & construction loans at 23%. All three banks recorded Q4 2016 low single-digit housing loans and building and construction loans sequentially.

Our view is UOB will be the key beneficiary as it has the largest exposure to property-related loans. We also like UOB for its higher general provisioning to loan ratio, which provides scope for write-back of general provisions in the quarters ahead. UOB is our only buy recommendation within the Singapore banking space.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #62 on: April 01, 2017, 07:46:18 AM »
Interest payments on the slide for Chinese banks ~ 1 Apr 2017
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/interest-payments-on-the-slide-for-chinese-banks/news-story/fac0405462aa16217632f2606881dc0a
Banks are finding it hard to find good assets that can secure a higher return, and rising (money market) rates are exerting pressure on costs.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #63 on: April 22, 2017, 10:43:12 AM »
Banks, Tenaga boost KLCI while crude palm oil rebounds ~ 20 Apr 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/20/banks-tenaga-boost-klc-while-palm-oil-rebounds/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #64 on: May 08, 2017, 03:19:02 PM »
China’s crackdown on shadow banking could seriously upset global markets ~ 8 May 2017
http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2093364/chinas-crackdown-shadow-banking-could-seriously-upset-global
  • Very much the driving force behind the ‘reflation trade’, the global repercussions of further Chinese regulatory and monetary tightening to tame financial risk could become a lot more severe.
  • Since the drive to curb financial leverage intensified in early April, China’s banks have started withdrawing money from so-called entrusted investments – asset or wealth management products that banks outsource to third-party asset managers – which has forced non-bank financial institutions to sell their bond and equity holdings.
  • While the steep falls in commodity prices – iron ore has dropped below US$60 a tonne for the first time in 6  months, copper prices are down more than 6% since the end of March, while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is back below US$50 a barrel for the first time since late November – stem partly from persistent concerns about global oversupply, the sell-off is inextricably linked to measures to curb financial risk in China.
Moody's: China shadow banking sector impacted by increasingly tight liquidity ~ 8 May 2017
http://news.forexlive.com/!/moodys-china-shadow-banking-sector-impacted-by-increasingly-tight-liquidity-20170508
Borrowers in sectors such as property, local government financing vehicles and overcapacity industries with high financing needs face reduced access to traditional bank loans and the primary bond market. As a result, there are increasing signs that these borrowers are turning to shadow banks as an alternative funding source, which drives in particular, demand for trust loans and entrusted loans.

World Bank warns of China debt risk from backdoor local borrowing ~ 7 May 2017
https://www.ft.com/content/799a1afa-3135-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

Is China on the verge of a banking crisis? ~ 28 Apr 2017
https://international.thenewslens.com/article/67126



Why a banking crisis in China seems unavoidable ~ 27 Sep 2016
http://voxeu.org/article/why-banking-crisis-china-seems-unavoidable

Figure 2 plots the credit-to-GDP gap in the quarter preceding nine severe banking crises. These are: Norway (1990), Sweden (1991), Finland (1991), Japan (1992), Mexico (1994), UK (2007), US (2007), Ireland (2008), and the Netherlands (2008). In many cases, the credit-to-GDP gap exceeded 8 prior to the onset of a severe financial crisis. In fact, the empirical literature suggests that a credit-to-GDP gap in excess of 8 is the danger zone (BCBS 2010). In China today, the ratio is at 30.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #65 on: June 05, 2017, 11:12:27 AM »
Government bonds: Euro-zone risks remain ~ 4 Jun 2017
https://www.ipe.com/investment/investing-in/government-bonds/government-bonds-euro-zone-risks-remain/10019274.article

Banco Popular head tells staff to stay calm, source says ECB meet planned ~ 4 Jun 2017
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20170604/business/banco-popular-head-tells-staff-to-stay-calm-source-says-ecb-meet.649997
Bank weighed down by €37bn of non-performing real estate assets.

Spain’s Banco Popular studying steps to boost liquidity ~ 3 Jun 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/spain-s-banco-popular-said-to-study-measures-to-boost-liquidity-j3g7vw19
  • Lender said to hold meeting Tuesday with European Central Bank
  • Bank has lost about 38% of its market value in the past week
The shares of Spain’s 6th biggest bank, Banco Popular, plunged to a intraday new low of €0.41, reducing the bank’s market capitalization to €1.7 billion.



Solution for Banco Popular is a capital raise or a sale - Spanish govt ~ 2 Jun 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/banco-popular-ma-idUSE8N1DF01X

Banco Popular lining up plan to raise capital ~ 1 Jun 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/spain-popular-capital-idUSL8N1IY1B8
Banco Popular has said previously it could extend a June 10 deadline for binding takeover offers.

EU warned of wind-down risk for Spain's Banco Popular ~ 31 May 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-banco-popular-m-a-eu-exclusive-idUSKBN18R25V

Banco Un-Popular ~ 22 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-22/banco-popular-in-struggle-to-survive
Banco Popular has tapped shareholders for new capital 3 times in the last 5 years and is now racing to find a buyer who can help plug an estimated 5 billion-euro capital gap.




Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #66 on: July 10, 2017, 07:37:46 AM »
Goldman to review commodities after worst start in a decade ~ 3 Jul 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-03/goldman-said-to-review-commodities-after-worst-start-in-a-decade
  • Bank’s poor results said to continue after weak first quarter
  • As rivals cut back, Blankfein has stayed committed to sector


Offline zuolun

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Re: Banks
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2017, 08:11:23 AM »
若代政府吞大众银行马银行联昌谁会出手?~ 2 Aug 2017
http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170802/%E3%80%90%E7%8B%AC%E5%AE%B6%E3%80%91%E8%8B%A5%E4%BB%A3%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%90%9E%E5%A4%A7%E4%BC%97%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8Cbr-%E9%A9%AC%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E8%81%94%E6%98%8C%E8%B0%81%E4%BC%9A/



PB Bank ~ In an uptrend support holds, in a downtrend support breaks

PB Bank closed @ RM20.60 on 1 Aug 2017.



Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum

Re: Banks
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2017, 08:11:23 AM »