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CAUTION !!
« on: June 10, 2016, 07:15:20 AM »



Permabear Marc Faber is starting to sound downright bullish

By Mark DeCambre
Published: June 9, 2016 6:15 p.m. ET

     1 
Gold vulnerable to near-term correction after rally
Bloomberg
Not sounding so bearish anymore.
Has Wall Street’s favorite permabear lost his teeth? A recent chat with Marc Faber about the outlook for global markets might lead one to conclude that the longstanding global-market pessimist espouses a much more subdued outlook for stocks — even one that’s furtively upbeat.

The Swiss investor, who publishes the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told MarketWatch that equities, which lately have been plodding toward fresh records, may remain buoyant if central banks continue to unfurl economic stimulus measures around the globe.

“I am negative about the global economy, but if you print enough money, the market may not go down in nominal terms” Faber said.


Perhaps even more significant — contrasting with the starkly bearish view espoused by billionaire hedge-fund investor George Soros — Faber suggests that China, though facing serious headwinds as it struggles to avoid a so-called hard landing, may be able to orchestrate a touchdown without roiling the rest of the world.

“China has a credit bubble. That is known,” said Faber. “The question is, to what extent can the credit bubble be deflated without causing any major disruptions? And I think that it is possible,” he said.

Repercussions of a slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy have been playing out for months. Nearly a year ago, concerns about the health of the Chinese market fueled a selloff in U.S. stocks. But U.S. stocks have stabilized since then, with the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.17% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.11% on the verge of hitting new records for the first time in more than a year.

Faber’s current take on the market comes after an earlier call for an epic crash by the S&P 500 — he predicted in January that the large-cap benchmark could fall to a 5-year low — has failed to materialize so far. The permabear bristles at the suggestion that his calls were wrong.

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Instead, he points to his recommendations in precious metals and gold-mining shares, which have panned out considerably well, boasting sharp year-to-date returns. In the face of some $10 trillion in debt, bearing negative interest rates across the globe and mounting fears that the U.K. might abandon the European Union, gold futures GCQ6, -0.10% and the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund GLD, +0.56%  are both up about 20% in 2016, while the mining-focused VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, +1.54%  has nearly doubled. Weakness in the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.55% also has helped to support that rise, making dollar-priced assets cheaper to buyers using other currencies.

Faber says the run-up in gold and other metals might now leave the complex vulnerable to a pullback.

“An investor has to realize that once a stock has moved up from its lows…consolidation should be expected, even a correction,” he said.

Faber believes most portfolio managers fail to have sufficient exposure to gold, which is typically used as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty, but may be “embarrassed” to purchase the commodity now at its current price. As a consolation, Faber recommends considering buying mining stock Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX, -5.87% which he believes still has upside.

Is it fair to describe Faber as outright bullish on stocks? Perhaps that’s a reach.

“I am bearish about the world,” he said, “and I think the U.S. stock is more than fully priced and is vulnerable to a significant decline.”

Certainly, the likes of Soros are bracing for the worst. Outspoken activist Carl Icahn said on CNBC on Thursday said Soros’s bearish bets have merit, given artificially low rates that have proliferated across the globe. “I can’t help but think he has a couple of real good points,” he said.

Broadly speaking, investors appear to be expressing caution as well, throwing money into havens, like government bonds.

Indeed, the yield on the 10-year benchmark note closed at its lowest level in about four months on Thursday. And the yield on Britain’s equivalent, the gilt TMBMKGB-10Y, -0.66% hit an all-time low of 1.245%, as did Germany’s benchmark bund TMBMKDE-10Y, -33.22% which was at 0.037% late in New York.

Read: Is the 10-year German bund yield about to turn negative?

Despite the degree of nervousness being expressed though the lens of the buying of government debt, stocks held up relatively well Thursday and look set to shrug at bears like Faber.

Of course, avoiding a bearish outlook and eschewing stocks back during the market’s nadir on Feb. 11 would have left investors out of a healthy rally that has seen the S&P 500 rise nearly 16% and the Dow up around 15%. U.S. benchmark crude-oil futures CLN6, -0.10%  also have nearly doubled during that period, up about 93%

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CAUTION !!
« on: June 10, 2016, 07:15:20 AM »

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2016, 07:19:19 AM »



财经  2016年06月09日
索罗斯重出江湖 准备大规模沽空

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索罗斯重出江湖 准备大规模沽空

据《华尔街日报》引述消息报导指出,索罗斯不看好全球经济前景,近日已重操故业,大举造空!

由索罗斯和其家族管理,规模达300亿美元的索罗斯管理基金,预期不少市场將转弱,近日沽空股票,买入黄金及金矿股此类避险资產。此举对索罗斯而言是个重大的转变,因为已年届85岁的索罗斯,近年主要集中注意於公共政策和慈善事业上。

报道更指出,索罗斯过去一直对旗下基金的投资密切注视,若基金蒙受损失,他更会积极参与基金运作,但最近几年已变得不太活跃公司事务。然而,自今年起索罗斯却开始花更多时间,於办公室指挥大局,更不时与公司高层沟通。




在1997年3月美联储加息前后,索罗斯联合对冲基金对东南亚金融市场发动攻击。以泰国为发端,一场金融危机席捲了东南亚,並进一步演变为亚洲金融危机。

2011年,索罗斯结束长达40年的对冲基金经理生涯,並退还所有客户的资金,日后只会管理家族资產。2015年初,索罗斯宣佈「终极退休」,以后不再沾手投资管理

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2016, 08:58:29 AM »



BlackRock: What you should take away from Icahn, Soros bearishness
Fred Imbert   | @foimbert
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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We might be at the very end of this economic cycle, and the remarks by legendary investors Carl Icahn and George Soros signal it, said Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief investment strategist for fixed income.

"I think the message there is that this is a very late part of current cycle. Nobody knows how far that cycle will go, but it's clear that you're seeing many signals," Rosenberg said Thursday, on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "You're seeing them in the fixed income markets, you're seeing it in the credit markets, you see it in profits, in the equity markets — that this is the later part in the economic cycle."
Soros, according to The Wall Street Journal, came out of trading retirement with a series of very bearish bets, selling equities in favor of gold and gold miners' stocks. Icahn, meanwhile, said Soros' strategy made sense as equities had been falsely propped up.

U.S. equities traded mostly lower Thursday, while gold futures for August delivery rose $10.40 to $1,272.70 an ounce. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding near 1.67 percent.

Carl Icahn and George Soros
Adam Jeffery | CNBC; Getty Images
Carl Icahn and George Soros
Adding to stock investors' worries, Rosenberg noted that "central bank policy is running on fumes."

"We're scraping the bottom of the barrel on what other further policy iterations that can be done to help to support the market," he said.

The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, raised interest rates from zero in December, while the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have crossed into negative rates, trying to jumpstart their respective economies.

That said, UBS Chief Investment Strategist Mike Ryan disagreed with at least part of Rosenberg's premise.

"There is no question we're in the mature phase of the business cycle, but I do think we have to be careful because I do think this business cycle is going to be very different than prior cycles," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "I think this is going to be more of an accordion expansion. That means it's narrower and more fragile than we've seen in the past, but it's also a longer one."

"We're not seeing the kinds of excesses that come at the very end part of the cycle that usually trip us into a recession this time," he said. "We don't have the huge build-up of debt … within the consumer side that usually winds up in a pullback of consumer spending."

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2016, 09:01:08 AM »



Cramer: Investing like George Soros will never make you rich
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
2 Hours Ago
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Just because George Soros is rich, famous and likes gold, doesn't mean it's time to sell. In fact, Jim Cramer is getting sick of hearing from negative billionaires.

"They aren't the stewards of your capital. They aren't the be-all and end-all. They are simply people with a worldview that they are sharing with the media, so you shouldn't be blinded by the billionaire limelight hoping it will shine on you," the "Mad Money" host said.

Cramer has done his homework on Soros and couldn't recall a time when he wasn't negative about pretty much everything. If someone is negative about stocks, it makes sense that they would want to own gold.

Often investors use gold as an insurance policy against economic chaos, because when stocks go down gold tends to rise. Cramer has always recommended that having some gold exposure is a good idea through either bullion, the GLD ETF or Randgold Resources.

Businessman with headphones
Dag Sundberg | Getty Images
"The last thing Soros needs to do is find a new idea that might make him a fortune. He already has a dozen fortunes."
-Jim Cramer
While Soros certainly deserves respect for his long-term track record, at the end of the day, Cramer reminded investors that he doesn't manage their portfolios.

"He can be fickle. Maybe he changes his mind. You think you're going to get a call when that happens? No more than you would get a call from Carl Icahn before he decides to dump Apple," Cramer said.

In reality, Cramer thinks someone only needs to get rich once. There is no reason to take a chance on the next Facebook, Regeneron or Amazon if you are already worth $23 billion like Soros. Thus, owning stocks is crazy and risky.

That is why Cramer urged investors not to take the advice of someone just because they are rich. That kind of reasoning could easily lead someone astray.

"The last thing Soros needs to do is find a new idea that might make him a fortune. He already has a dozen fortunes. Yet the same idea could be very important to homegamers like you," Cramer said.

Other than Warren Buffett, Cramer couldn't think of another rich investor that speaks to the media and is actually very sanguine about stocks. They tend to have a very negative outlook on stocks and the global economy.

"Do your own homework, come up with your own ideas and if you like them, buy some. Even if George Soros is negative on the world," Cramer said

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2016, 05:46:21 AM »



Bill Gross: $10 trillion negative yield 'supernova' will 'explode'
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
9 Hours Ago
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Bond guru Bill Gross believes the growing global move toward negative yields will have dire consequences.

In a tweet from his firm, Janus Capital, Gross goes back half a millennium to assert that the current situation with the world's debt market is unprecedented and dangerous:

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Gross: Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day
10:05 PM - 9 Jun 2016
  559 559 Retweets   351 351 likes
The warning comes as yields on Japanese government bonds and German bunds hit record lows.

While it's unclear what database Gross used to track bond yields back to the 16th century, there has been some academic research done on the topic. Bryan Taylor, chief economist for Global Financial Data, has done work on the subject and found generally that yields have declined over time.

In recent days, private banks have revolted over the growth of negative yields in Europe and Asia, a trend that has helped push big money inflows to U.S. corporate and government debt.

Gross runs the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, which has returned 3.3 percent year to date. He will be on CNBC Friday at 2 pm.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2016, 05:49:48 AM »



"It's Time To Panic" - Albert Edwards Warns Recession Is Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 10, 2016 2:06 PM
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“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs. In the event it is best to roll up into a ball. This won?t prevent all injury, but it will help avoid the most damaging blows. The same applies to investors in the Ice Age.

On 4 June 2009 Edwards wrote:

“The big news this week is that the Coppock Indicator has turned upwards. This is one of the most reliable technical indicators suggesting we are in a new long-term bull market. The Conference Board leading indicator has also just turned up decisively. Is an investor who remains underweight equities, expecting decisive new lows brave, or plain stupid?”
The answer is that it was I who was incredibly stupid. I?m used to looking stupid most of time as within this secular bear market, cyclical rallies last many years longer than each short-lived cyclical bear phase. But each gut-wrenching downturn takes equity indices to new lower lows. That moment is imminent.

As SocGen's Albert Edwards explains... We remain at the bearish extreme of the market.

It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark and damp. People either don?t speak to you or send you abusive e-mails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up. Although when I was going through my hippy phase in the second half of the 1970s (a decade too late), my mother did actually cross the street and walk past pretending she didn?t know me. Maybe that childhood experience of parental rejection made me the thick-skinned bear I am today?


As promised we have updated the Pring Turner chart...




It shows that the three previous US equity valuation bear markets (the top line being the real S&P) take a minimum of four recessions to play themselves out ? we have only suffered two since the peak of the bubble in 2000. The secular bear market only ends when cyclically-adjusted valuation measures reach rock bottom (such as the Shiller PE on the bottom line). Each successive recession (red part of real S&P ? top line) sees huge downturns, usually to new lower lows of both prices and valuations. That is why we reiterated our view early this year that in the coming recession the S&P will bottom at 550, a 75% decline from current levels.

The charts below are my favourite Ice Age charts, which I haven?t focused on for a long time.



The first shows the US equity earnings yield and the 10y bond yield back to 1950 and it demonstrates how successful investing depends on knowing what secular phase the market is in. The long bull market of 1982-2000, when both bond yields and equity yields fell together, was a mirror image of the 1965-1982 period during which the Dow stagnated for 17 years in nominal terms. Between 1965 and 2000, equity and bond yields were positively correlated as bond yields and inflation drove equity yields. The current Ice Age secular phase since 2000 has seen that positive correlation between equity and bond yields break down ? it is a mirror image of the 1950-1965 period when equity prices rose substantially (yields fell) despite rising bond yields.


The above charts are a trip down memory lane for me, and at my age it?s nice to reconnect with familiar old friends. But the key to the Ice Age thesis is to sound CONDITION RED ALERT as each recession approaches, because the equity outcome then always proves much worse than anyone expects due to the additional phase of secular de-rating.

So are we approaching a US recession? In the aftermath of the latest, weaker than expected, nonfarm payroll data, economists are certainly more worried. The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight The Fed?s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak).



For investors who think copper still has some predictive power, its recent move is disturbing.




*  *  *

We are coming up to the 20th anniversary of SocGen's Albert Edwards' formulation of the Ice Age thesis.



 

Others have climbed aboard with similar ideas of Secular Stagnation. But the Ice Age was not only about economics and the drift towards deflation; it was also a description of how financial markets would react.

In the Ice Age, government bonds re-rate in absolute and relative terms against equities which de-rate in absolute terms. Equity investors endure a secular valuation bear market lasting many economic cycles, punctuated by cyclical rallies that beguile investors into thinking, like now, that the horrors of the Ice Age are over.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2016, 08:17:58 AM »



Could The S&P 500 Rise 20% Before Crashing?
Jun. 3, 2016 11:51 AM ET| Includes: ABX, CLF, EEM, FCX, GDX, GDXJ, SPY, TCK, UUP, X, XLE, XME
William Koldus, CFA, CAIA   William Koldus, CFA, CAIAPremium Research »⊕Follow(4,327 followers)
Contrarian, deep value, long/short equity, portfolio strategy
Send Message|The Contrarian
Summary

U.S. stock and bond markets are historically overvalued.

Central bank liquidity has been the primary driver of the most recent bubble.

In the last innings of the current bull market, could the market surge to the upside, before succumbing to the gravity of valuations?

You're never too old to reinvent yourself.

—Sir Martin Sorrell



For a long time, I have been bearish on the markets, and this comes from somebody who was as bullish as you could get in the spring of 2009. Last week, I outlined the reasons that investors should be cautious on the prospect of future returns from both their stock and bond allocations.

In fact, stock and bond returns over the course of the next decade are likely to be negative, annually, on a real return basis, after inflation is subtracted from their nominal returns.

While I am definitely bearish on long-term returns, from the elevated valuations levels that the U.S. stock and bond markets are starting from today, this does not preclude the markets from becoming more overvalued, before they ultimately succumb to the gravitational pull of valuation. This is a reversion-to-the-mean concept that I like to call "valuation gravity."

Thus with abundant pessimism in the U.S. stock market today, amidst the return of inflationary pressures, could we actually get a melt-up before the meltdown?

Thesis

Abundant pessimism and the resurgence of inflation will drive the final innings of the current bull market, before its ultimate crash.

Pessimism Is High, Which Is A Positive

The S&P 500 Index, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), has been in a trading range for the past two years.


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2016, 08:27:30 AM »



Could The S&P 500 Rise 20% Before Crashing? - Part II
Jun. 10, 2016 11:22 AM ET| Includes: ACWI, EEM, EFA, SPY, UNG, USO, UUP, XLE
William Koldus, CFA, CAIA   William Koldus, CFA, CAIAPremium Research »⊕Follow(4,327 followers)
Contrarian, deep value, long/short equity, portfolio strategy
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Summary

In part I, we examined negative sentiment, and why it could lead to an unexpected stock market rally.

Part II looks at earnings estimates for the S&P 500 and for the MSCI World Index.

With the end of negative earnings revisions in sight, historical data further confirms a potential stock market breakout to the upside.

"You're never too old to reinvent yourself."

Sir Martin Sorrell



Introduction

Last week, I made a case for a potential 20% move higher in the S&P 500 Index over the course of the next year, before an ultimate market meltdown, based primarily on the prevailing levels of negative sentiment that are now in place.

This week, I am examining another positive factor that could positively impact the broader equity markets, and this is the end of negative earnings estimate revisions.

Thesis

After two years of negative revisions, earnings estimates are about to turn higher, providing further fuel for the final innings of the current bull market.

Earnings Estimates Have Been Coming Down

Over roughly the past two years, the S&P 500 Index, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), has traded sideways, after an explosive surge higher that began out of the 2011 lows.



While the S&P 500 Index has churned, and even improbably rallied from its 2016 lows, earnings estimates, for the S&P 500 Index, have continually declined.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2016, 08:30:24 AM »



NewsUKUK Politics
EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 13 days to go
Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum 
Andrew Grice @IndyPolitics 6 hours  ago1123 comments
   
   
   
   
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 brexit-michael-gove-boris-johnson.jpg
Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have helped propel the Leave campaign into a significant lead over their Remain rivals Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.

Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.



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David Cameron asked if he is 'finished as PM' after EU referendum
Differential turnout could prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same.


READ MORE
British public knows very little about EU referendum, survey shows
The results will heighten fears in the Remain campaign that it is losing ground among Labour supporters, who are seen as critical to securing victory for it.  According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave. Only 38 per cent of Tory voters endorse David Cameron’s stance by backing Remain, while 62 per cent support Leave.

Many people seem ready to vote for Brexit even though the poll shows they believe it involves some risk and think the economy is more important than immigration – widely seen as the Leave camp’s trump card.

The one crumb of comfort for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s referendum on gay marriage last year.

The most scaremongering arguments for Brexit
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The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially,  just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.

Support for EU membership is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of people in every other region of Great Britain favour withdrawal when turnout is taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign, only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave. This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.

Take our EU referendum poll:


However, warnings about the economic impact of Brexit appear to have hit home. According to ORB, eight out of 10 people – and of Conservative voters – think leaving the EU would pose some risk, and only 19 per cent think it would pose no risk at all. But a majority of both groups are still prepared to take the risk.

READ MORE
EU referendum: Nigel Farage to become poster boy for Remain campaign
EU referendum: Brexit would see UK excluded from single market, German finance minister warns
EU referendum: Voters should blame government cuts instead of immigration, say Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon
Similarly, 52 per cent of people agree with the statement that the economy is a bigger issue than immigration when considering how to vote in the referendum, while 37 per cent disagree.

Seven out of 10 people think the campaign has been too negative so far, while only 15 per cent disagree. The Leave camp will see this finding as a sign that what it has dubbed Remain’s “Project Fear” has not worked.

Four out of 10 people believe that whatever the referendum result, it will not have much impact on their everyday life, but more people (44 per cent) disagree with this statement.

Polling experts say the result is still too close to call, and that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give Remain a higher rating than online surveys

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2016, 02:36:23 PM »



The Next Bear Market Will Be Ruthless
Jun.10.16 | About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), DIA, QQQ Get Alerts
Eric Parnell, CFA   Eric Parnell, CFAPremium Research »⊕Follow(10,759 followers)
Registered investment advisor, CFA, portfolio strategy, macro
Send Message|The Universal
Summary

It has been almost nine years since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And it has been more than seven years since the start of the most recent bull market.

The Fed has created a bubble not only in asset prices but also in the investor belief that the value of their investments will be protected no matter what.

Unfortunately, the next bear market will eventually come, and it is likely to be ruthless once it finally arrives.

Investors who recognize such an eventual reality can stand at the ready to capitalize once the time finally arrives.

It has been almost nine years since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And it has been more than seven years since the start of the most recent bull market. Stocks have been impressively resilient in the face of every test during the post-crisis period thanks in large part to the seemingly endless support from monetary policymakers including the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has helped foster an environment where many investors are not only comfortable but have swagger about owning stocks at historically high valuations despite chronically slow growth. As a result, the Fed has helped create bubbles not only in asset prices but investor expectations that the principal value of their investments will be upheld no matter what challenges befall the economy. Unfortunately, just like the bursting of the tech bubble and the onset of the financial crisis, the next recession will finally come. And when it does, it has the potential to be absolutely ruthless for investors.

Let's Get This Out Of The Way

I can already hear the bulls sharpening their knives for the comment section of this article, and I very much look forward to reading and responding to all points of view including those that strongly disagree with my article, but let me get out in front with a few observations.

Indeed, I have been bearish for some time, but this does not mean that I'm predicting that everything is going to go up in smoke tomorrow. Just as the tech bubble went about four years longer than it probably should have, the same could definitely be said for today's market. Moreover, we could see the S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY) continue to rally for the next several months or couple of years. Then again, we could already be one year into a new bear market. Only time will tell. But what's important to note is that the higher and longer today's market continues to rise, the longer and harder it is likely to fall on the backside. In the meantime and until we start to definitely roll down the other side of the mountain, I have and will continue to hold a meaningful allocation to stocks.

But isn't my holding stocks a contradiction to my bearish view? Absolutely not. For just as being bullish does not mean that one should be all in and 100% allocated to equities, being bearish does not imply that one should be completely out of stocks and hide away in a bunker waiting for the world to end. Bear markets slowly evolve over long-term periods of time, and selected segments of the stock market have historically demonstrated the ability to perform well during different stages of bear market cycles. For example, consumer staples (NYSEARCA:XLP), utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) and healthcare (NYSEARCA:XLV) stocks all typically perform well during the early stages of a bear market, and selected specific stocks of various styles and sizes such as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Village Super Market (NASDAQ:VLGEA), Community Bank System (NYSE:CBU) and Southern Company (NYSE:SO) have demonstrated the ability to perform well throughout the entirety of two of the worst bear markets in history in the bursting of the tech bubble and the financial crisis. So while I may not be loaded up on the SPY, the market offers a solid menu of stocks that one can hold through the worst of a market storm. I also own a lot of other things outside of stocks that are performing well today and I expect will perform even better during any future bear market in stocks.

Also, isn't my making a statement that the next bear market could be "absolutely ruthless" for investors nothing more than fear mongering? No, it is not. Instead, it is trying to increase investor awareness of a view that they may not otherwise be hearing. After all, one only has to tune into one of the major financial news networks to hear a cornucopia of bullish views on the market, many from analysts that have a direct vested interest in promoting such bullish views and reassuring the audience that despite any short-term rough patch that "stocks will be trading higher by the end of the year." Conversely, those expressing a bearish view are often met with heavy pushback and scowling derision. As a result, this leaves many that may be less experienced with investment markets exposed to the risk of wondering "why didn't I see this coming" when they eventually find themselves locked in the jaws of the next bear market.

In the end, it is up to individual investors to decide how they wish to proceed with their own portfolio allocation. But by sharing this more bearish perspective on today's markets - it at a minimum provides investors with a viewpoint to consider that they may not be hearing elsewhere.

Now that we've got that out of the way, let's get down to it.

The Economic/Market Disconnect

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2016, 02:37:15 PM »



The Economic/Market Disconnect

The next bear market is setting up to be ruthless for investors. But this does not mean that it will be ruthless for the U.S. economy. In fact, it would not be surprising at all to see a prolonged and significant decline in stocks accompanied by what amounts to a somewhat longer than normal but otherwise relatively mild economic recession. How can this be the case? Simple. Since Main Street (NYSE:MAIN) hardly participated in the glorious ascent that has been Wall Street via the stock market over the past seven plus years, Main Street is not likely to suffer nearly as much when stock prices come falling back to earth. In fact, many parts of Main Street might actually find themselves benefiting in many ways including even lower interest rates on loans, lower gasoline prices at the pump and the execution of more effective fiscal programs by policymakers that finally have had a long overdue fire lit under them.

Impossible, you might say. How can we have a major stock market decline with a relatively milder impact on the broader economy? One has to look no further than the bursting of the technology bubble from 2000 to 2002. During this time period, stocks declined by more than -50%, but the economy hardly even declined. Although we officially had a recession from March 2001 to November 2001 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the overall decline in U.S. real GDP was -0.3% and we didn't even have two consecutive quarters of negative growth during this stretch. This recent example highlights the fact that it is certainly possible to have a stock market more than cut in half without any measurable contraction in economic activity. For if stock valuations get too far ahead of the economy, as they were then and are arguably today, they then have a huge air pocket through which to descend by simply falling back to the underlying economic reality.



What About Not Fighting The Fed? Lest We Forget - Lest We Forget!

What about fighting the Fed? Haven't we learned by now during the post-crisis period that the U.S. Federal Reserve and their global central bank counterparts are going to do whatever it takes to protect stock prices at every turn? This has been definitely true in recent times as any attempts to try and short the market over the past seven years when it looked like stocks were going to break sharply to the downside have been absolutely steamrolled along the way. But in order to avoid falling victim to recency bias, just because this has been true in recent years does not mean that it is universally true.

In fact, the history of the Fed is filled with examples of them winning so many of the battles but ultimately losing the wars.

To set the stage for this point, let's go back to the last great Fed victory, which was winning the war over inflation back in the early 1980s. How did the Fed win this war? Because it was willing to endure the hardship, lose the battles, and suffer the sacrifice to prevail with overall victory in the end. Then Fed Chair Paul Volcker did not coddle and cajole the economy and financial markets at the time in working to solve the problem. Instead, he dialed up interest rates to nearly 20% and ripped the heart out of the inflation problem. During this time, the economy endured two back-to-back recessions and a solid bear market, but it set the stage for the years of prosperity that followed in the 1980s and 1990s. In short, the Fed was willing to lose some battles to win the war. And until former Fed Board Governor Kevin Warsh is appointed to the position, Mr. Volcker will remain my favorite all-time Fed Chair.



So what have we seen since? Under Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, we saw the Fed win battle after battle. This included the stock market crash of 1987, the recession of 1990, the should-have-been recession of 1994, the Asian Flu in the late 1990s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. And the Fed did so by helping investors avoid any pain along the way. Yet, in the end, they lost the war, as the tech bubble finally burst with roughly four years of investor gains during the late 1990s evaporating in the process.

About that Fed put. While it is easy to forget, particularly when it has lifted markets for so many years, but the Fed does not always get what it wants from stocks with accommodative monetary policy. Lest we forget! During the bursting of the tech bubble, the Fed was aggressively lowering interest rates for three years starting in early 2000, yet stock prices lost more than half of their value before finally bottoming in late 2002 and early 2003.



But then came the post-tech bubble period. Under Fed Chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the Fed once again was winning all of the wars thanks to low interest rates and a booming housing market. And once again, investors were able to bask in the warmth of an accommodating market filled with gains and free of pain. In the process, they managed to bring the stock market all the way back to its tech bubble highs. But in the end, the Fed once again lost the war, as the housing bubble burst with nearly catastrophic consequences. By the time the financial crisis was brought under control in March 2009 (not fixed, but brought under control), the market had exceeded the losses of the tech bubble to the downside and was back to the same level it had first reached more than a decade earlier.

Once again, the Fed put does not always work. Lest we forget! During the financial crisis, the Fed was once again aggressively lowering interest rates for nearly two years starting in mid-2007, eventually lowering interest rates to zero and launching into quantitative easing along the way, yet stock prices once again lost more than half of their value before finally bottoming in early 2009.



All of this leads us to today. Under Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, the Fed has won all of the battles by giving investors everything they could ever imagine and more. Stocks have skyrocketed virtually without interruption and investor pain has been virtually non-existent. In the process, the Fed managed to catapult the stock market more than one-third higher above its tech bubble and pre-financial crisis peaks. And they did so with a global economy that has been sluggish, uneven and lackluster at best.

Why The Next Recession Will Be Ruthless For Stocks

Maybe the outcome this time around will be different. But given the historical pattern over the past two decades, my bet remains that the Fed will end up losing this war once again.

Why? Let's begin with the qualitative, which is that war is not won by bypassing the pain and sacrifice necessary to prevail. And until policymakers finally decide that they are ready to win the war and replace the monetary cotton candy with a steady diet of spinach, we are likely to continue in these monetary induced boom and bust cycles.

Now let's get to the quantitative. What enabled the Fed to rescue the stock market after the last two lost wars? Because they entered financial markets firing all monetary guns for an extended period of time lasting two to three years in order to get the markets stabilized and moving higher again. But let's assume whatever bubble of the many that exist today finally bursts and sends stocks sustainably lower despite all of the best efforts and jawboning by the U.S. Federal Reserve and their global cohorts. From exactly what arsenal are they going to fire from to turn the stock market around so quickly this next time around?

Will it be lowering interest rates by several percentage points? No, because interest rates are already effectively still at zero in the U.S. and negative in much of the developed world outside of the U.S. And the temptation to go further into negative interest rate territory is unlikely, for not only has it not lifted stock price in any measurable way, evidence is growing by the day that it simply does not work and is causing more harm than good.

Will it be launching into yet another round of aggressive quantitative easing? Perhaps, but what is the justification for putting our global fiat currency system that is still a baby at only less than half of a century old at even greater peril than it already is for returning to a program that simply has not worked in generating sustained economic growth over the past seven years? With that said, I still wouldn't put it past the Fed to go back to this well, but it stands to question what the marginal benefit to stock prices would be at the end of the day. Lest we forget the experience that Japan (NYSEARCA:EWJ) had with quantitative easing from March 2001 to March 2006 when the Bank of Japan increased its balance sheet by more than seven-fold, with the lion share of the increases taking place during the first three years of the program.



Yet during the first several years of the program, stock prices were cut in half before finally finding their footing. And they didn't begin bursting to the upside until more than four years after the launch of the program, and this was thanks in part to a global tailwind where the rest of the global economy was already well into its post tech bubble recovery at that point.

If and when stocks began falling in earnest the next time around, be it because of the onset of the next recession or the bursting of a bubble in capital markets, it is very likely that global central banks will lack sufficient monetary firepower and policy flexibility to stem the decline lower in stocks. In short, markets may finally be allowed to wash themselves out and cleanse themselves despite what monetary policymakers wish to allow. It's the return of Volcker-style monetary policy whether global central banks want it or not.

It should be noted that such a decline is likely to cut deeper and last longer than the two major bear markets that preceded it since the start of the new millennium. It will likely lead to a larger overall decline in the end due to the fact that central bankers will lack the resources to reverse the overall market decline the next time around. And it will likely last longer because central bankers are likely to try and fight the decline in global stock markets at every turn, as there will almost certainly be no Lehman Brothers style bandage ripping off next time around. The good news is that it will provide investors with several opportunities to evacuate the market before the lights fully go out. One could even argue that the market is providing investors with such opportunities as we speak today. Moreover, such a longer, more gradual bear market would provide abundant short-term trading opportunities for the nimbler investors among us. The bad news is that the next bear market is likely to feel as agonizingly long as the bull market has seemed endless today.

The Silver Lining

Such an outcome would certainly be difficult to endure and is unfortunately likely to leave a good number of investors smarting from the inevitable loss in portfolio value sustained by many along the way. But the silver lining to such an outcome is an American-style happy ending.

We don't reflect back with regret on the challenges that we had to endure during the late 1970s and early 1980s when the inflation rate was pushing toward 15% and the Fed had to crank up its restrictive monetary policy deals to fix the economy. Instead, many reflect on that time with tales of courage like how they had to walk into a bank and get a mortgage with sky-high interest rates in order to provide their family with a place to live after relocating to a new city. And almost nobody regrets the years of sustained economic prosperity that followed during the 1980s and 1990s, and that includes struggling through the markets at the time that inspired the now much ridiculed "Death of Equities" magazine cover that came along the way. In short, suffering through this inevitable market pain ahead will bring us to the dawn of the next great phase of sustained economic growth in the United States and around the world.



Just as importantly, the fact that stocks are set up for a fall due in part to monetary policymakers being just about out of firepower will likely finally induce frustratingly complacent and bungling political leaders to get off their collective duffs and finally start working together in enacting effective fiscal policy to fix the chronic problems that have existed around the globe for far too long. The general voting population around the world are really angry, and for good reason. It is because their political systems and leaders from the major established parties have failed them badly. This is a big part of the reason why we have seen the rise of outsider candidates such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders here in the United States and scores of outsider candidates in countries around the developed and emerging world rise to the forefront of political influence. It is also part of the reason why a candidate like Gary Johnson that effectively finished tenth out of nine candidates in the 2012 Republican primaries and could not even consistently make the debate stage that year has recently been registering in the double-digits in the general election polls as the Libertarian candidate for president in 2016. It's because the masses want big time change to happen that includes much more effective fiscal policy and they are willing to go to whatever lengths necessary to endure whatever pain required and to elect whatever candidate is needed to make it happen. And if the markets go through such a corrective cycle in the coming years, the people are likely to get this outcome regardless of who takes office both in the U.S. and in countries around the world.

The Bottom Line

Whether it starts tomorrow, next month, three years now, or already started more than a year ago, the next bear market is likely to be ruthless both in depth and duration. And the higher stocks continue to climb today, the more ruthless the next bear market is likely to be in the end. Investors can ignore the likelihood for such an outcome, but they do so at their own peril.

Instead, investors can be well served by embracing or at least recognizing such a potential outcome and preparing their portfolio accordingly. This does not mean moving to cash right now, running for the hills and stockpiling your emergency food rations. Instead, it means crafting a game plan that includes stocks as well as components from various other asset classes that are not stocks so that you are ready to capitalize on the various ebbs and flows of the market as it travels through such an extended corrective process. After all, some of the greatest and most legendary investment gains have been made during extended bear markets, and the next time around is likely to be no exception in this regard. For those who are interested, this is an area among others that we explore in much great detail on my premium service The Universal.

Perhaps the most positive outcome of all is the following. By enduring such a cleansing process in the global economy and financial markets, as painful as it might be along the way, it will finally bring us all to that 1921, 1946, and 1982 moment where we stand at the dawn to watch the sunrise on the next great sustained global economic expansion. Nobody said the journey through the 1910s into the early 1920s, the 1930s into the 1940s, and the 1970s into the early 1980s was easy, but they were required to bring us to the periods of great prosperity that followed.

The good news is that we have already endured the challenges of the 2000s and the early 2010s. Now we just need to finish it off with one final cleansing phase, if only monetary policymakers would finally get out of the way and fiscal policymakers would finally get on with it. Perhaps we will find out sooner rather than later one way or another.

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Gerring Capital Partners makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Gerring Capital Partners will be met.

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Online king

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2016, 02:38:16 PM »



So what have we seen since? Under Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, we saw the Fed win battle after battle. This included the stock market crash of 1987, the recession of 1990, the should-have-been recession of 1994, the Asian Flu in the late 1990s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. And the Fed did so by helping investors avoid any pain along the way. Yet, in the end, they lost the war, as the tech bubble finally burst with roughly four years of investor gains during the late 1990s evaporating in the process.

About that Fed put. While it is easy to forget, particularly when it has lifted markets for so many years, but the Fed does not always get what it wants from stocks with accommodative monetary policy. Lest we forget! During the bursting of the tech bubble, the Fed was aggressively lowering interest rates for three years starting in early 2000, yet stock prices lost more than half of their value before finally bottoming in late 2002 and early 2003.



But then came the post-tech bubble period. Under Fed Chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the Fed once again was winning all of the wars thanks to low interest rates and a booming housing market. And once again, investors were able to bask in the warmth of an accommodating market filled with gains and free of pain. In the process, they managed to bring the stock market all the way back to its tech bubble highs. But in the end, the Fed once again lost the war, as the housing bubble burst with nearly catastrophic consequences. By the time the financial crisis was brought under control in March 2009 (not fixed, but brought under control), the market had exceeded the losses of the tech bubble to the downside and was back to the same level it had first reached more than a decade earlier.

Once again, the Fed put does not always work. Lest we forget! During the financial crisis, the Fed was once again aggressively lowering interest rates for nearly two years starting in mid-2007, eventually lowering interest rates to zero and launching into quantitative easing along the way, yet stock prices once again lost more than half of their value before finally bottoming in early 2009.



All of this leads us to today. Under Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, the Fed has won all of the battles by giving investors everything they could ever imagine and more. Stocks have skyrocketed virtually without interruption and investor pain has been virtually non-existent. In the process, the Fed managed to catapult the stock market more than one-third higher above its tech bubble and pre-financial crisis peaks. And they did so with a global economy that has been sluggish, uneven and lackluster at best.

Why The Next Recession Will Be Ruthless For Stocks

Maybe the outcome this time around will be different. But given the historical pattern over the past two decades, my bet remains that the Fed will end up losing this war once again.

Why? Let's begin with the qualitative, which is that war is not won by bypassing the pain and sacrifice necessary to prevail. And until policymakers finally decide that they are ready to win the war and replace the monetary cotton candy with a steady diet of spinach, we are likely to continue in these monetary induced boom and bust cycles.

Now let's get to the quantitative. What enabled the Fed to rescue the stock market after the last two lost wars? Because they entered financial markets firing all monetary guns for an extended period of time lasting two to three years in order to get the markets stabilized and moving higher again. But let's assume whatever bubble of the many that exist today finally bursts and sends stocks sustainably lower despite all of the best efforts and jawboning by the U.S. Federal Reserve and their global cohorts. From exactly what arsenal are they going to fire from to turn the stock market around so quickly this next time around?

Will it be lowering interest rates by several percentage points? No, because interest rates are already effectively still at zero in the U.S. and negative in much of the developed world outside of the U.S. And the temptation to go further into negative interest rate territory is unlikely, for not only has it not lifted stock price in any measurable way, evidence is growing by the day that it simply does not work and is causing more harm than good.

Will it be launching into yet another round of aggressive quantitative easing? Perhaps, but what is the justification for putting our global fiat currency system that is still a baby at only less than half of a century old at even greater peril than it already is for returning to a program that simply has not worked in generating sustained economic growth over the past seven years? With that said, I still wouldn't put it past the Fed to go back to this well, but it stands to question what the marginal benefit to stock prices would be at the end of the day. Lest we forget the experience that Japan (NYSEARCA:EWJ) had with quantitative easing from March 2001 to March 2006 when the Bank of Japan increased its balance sheet by more than seven-fold, with the lion share of the increases taking place during the first three years of the program.



Yet during the first several years of the program, stock prices were cut in half before finally finding their footing. And they didn't begin bursting to the upside until more than four years after the launch of the program, and this was thanks in part to a global tailwind where the rest of the global economy was already well into its post tech bubble recovery at that point.

If and when stocks began falling in earnest the next time around, be it because of the onset of the next recession or the bursting of a bubble in capital markets, it is very likely that global central banks will lack sufficient monetary firepower and policy flexibility to stem the decline lower in stocks. In short, markets may finally be allowed to wash themselves out and cleanse themselves despite what monetary policymakers wish to allow. It's the return of Volcker-style monetary policy whether global central banks want it or not.

It should be noted that such a decline is likely to cut deeper and last longer than the two major bear markets that preceded it since the start of the new millennium. It will likely lead to a larger overall decline in the end due to the fact that central bankers will lack the resources to reverse the overall market decline the next time around. And it will likely last longer because central bankers are likely to try and fight the decline in global stock markets at every turn, as there will almost certainly be no Lehman Brothers style bandage ripping off next time around. The good news is that it will provide investors with several opportunities to evacuate the market before the lights fully go out. One could even argue that the market is providing investors with such opportunities as we speak today. Moreover, such a longer, more gradual bear market would provide abundant short-term trading opportunities for the nimbler investors among us. The bad news is that the next bear market is likely to feel as agonizingly long as the bull market has seemed endless today.

The Silver Lining

Such an outcome would certainly be difficult to endure and is unfortunately likely to leave a good number of investors smarting from the inevitable loss in portfolio value sustained by many along the way. But the silver lining to such an outcome is an American-style happy ending.

We don't reflect back with regret on the challenges that we had to endure during the late 1970s and early 1980s when the inflation rate was pushing toward 15% and the Fed had to crank up its restrictive monetary policy deals to fix the economy. Instead, many reflect on that time with tales of courage like how they had to walk into a bank and get a mortgage with sky-high interest rates in order to provide their family with a place to live after relocating to a new city. And almost nobody regrets the years of sustained economic prosperity that followed during the 1980s and 1990s, and that includes struggling through the markets at the time that inspired the now much ridiculed "Death of Equities" magazine cover that came along the way. In short, suffering through this inevitable market pain ahead will bring us to the dawn of the next great phase of sustained economic growth in the United States and around the world.



Just as importantly, the fact that stocks are set up for a fall due in part to monetary policymakers being just about out of firepower will likely finally induce frustratingly complacent and bungling political leaders to get off their collective duffs and finally start working together in enacting effective fiscal policy to fix the chronic problems that have existed around the globe for far too long. The general voting population around the world are really angry, and for good reason. It is because their political systems and leaders from the major established parties have failed them badly. This is a big part of the reason why we have seen the rise of outsider candidates such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders here in the United States and scores of outsider candidates in countries around the developed and emerging world rise to the forefront of political influence. It is also part of the reason why a candidate like Gary Johnson that effectively finished tenth out of nine candidates in the 2012 Republican primaries and could not even consistently make the debate stage that year has recently been registering in the double-digits in the general election polls as the Libertarian candidate for president in 2016. It's because the masses want big time change to happen that includes much more effective fiscal policy and they are willing to go to whatever lengths necessary to endure whatever pain required and to elect whatever candidate is needed to make it happen. And if the markets go through such a corrective cycle in the coming years, the people are likely to get this outcome regardless of who takes office both in the U.S. and in countries around the world.

The Bottom Line

Whether it starts tomorrow, next month, three years now, or already started more than a year ago, the next bear market is likely to be ruthless both in depth and duration. And the higher stocks continue to climb today, the more ruthless the next bear market is likely to be in the end. Investors can ignore the likelihood for such an outcome, but they do so at their own peril.

Instead, investors can be well served by embracing or at least recognizing such a potential outcome and preparing their portfolio accordingly. This does not mean moving to cash right now, running for the hills and stockpiling your emergency food rations. Instead, it means crafting a game plan that includes stocks as well as components from various other asset classes that are not stocks so that you are ready to capitalize on the various ebbs and flows of the market as it travels through such an extended corrective process. After all, some of the greatest and most legendary investment gains have been made during extended bear markets, and the next time around is likely to be no exception in this regard. For those who are interested, this is an area among others that we explore in much great detail on my premium service The Universal.

Perhaps the most positive outcome of all is the following. By enduring such a cleansing process in the global economy and financial markets, as painful as it might be along the way, it will finally bring us all to that 1921, 1946, and 1982 moment where we stand at the dawn to watch the sunrise on the next great sustained global economic expansion. Nobody said the journey through the 1910s into the early 1920s, the 1930s into the 1940s, and the 1970s into the early 1980s was easy, but they were required to bring us to the periods of great prosperity that followed.

The good news is that we have already endured the challenges of the 2000s and the early 2010s. Now we just need to finish it off with one final cleansing phase, if only monetary policymakers would finally get out of the way and fiscal policymakers would finally get on with it. Perhaps we will find out sooner rather than later one way or another.

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Gerring Capital Partners makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Gerring Capital Partners will be met.


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2016, 05:33:59 PM »



Opinion: Do we really know that George Soros is bearish?

By Cullen Roche
Published: June 10, 2016 12:10 p.m. ET

     28 
So-called guru worship can endanger the average investor
Picasa 3.0 Niccolo Caranti
It’s easy to get swept up in the idea that a wealthy investor, such as George Soros, knows more than the rest of us, and that we should follow their disclosed moves as reported and after the fact.
An article in the Wall Street Journal this week cites how bearish George Soros is.

Which is strange because I feel like I’ve read that somewhere. Many times. Over many years.

So I went into the Google time machine and found that this article has been written in varying forms multiple times over the past three-plus years. Here’s one from 2013, one from 2014, one from 2015, one from January 2016 near the U.S. stock-market low and then again this week.


Yes, I read way too much financial news to be able to remember something like that. But what’s weird about this is that George Soros can’t really be that bearish based on the publicly available information we have. (I’m not criticizing Soros. I’m just pointing out that Soros has probably done nothing worthy of criticism. We simply don’t know how bearish or bullish he is based on his recent comments and publicly available information.)

First, Soros has largely stepped away from running Soros Fund Management. He’s apparently stepped into a more active role at times over the years, but I don’t think we can say “George Soros is bearish” because his fund does certain things. His fund is run more like a team unit these days, so we have to question any citation of “George Soros” being too involved in anything with the fund.

More importantly, there’s no way to tell how the Soros fund is actually positioned. We’re getting a small glimpse into the portfolio from public 13-F filings, but we have no idea what the derivative and other positions might say about the fund’s net exposure. All we see is the stock and options positions related to those holdings. From what we can tell, it looks like Soros Fund Management has at least a 9.5% position in puts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -0.95% but is largely long individual stocks. From this, we only know that Soros is net long with a fairly substantive hedge via the puts.

So a more accurate headline for all of these articles might have been: “George Soros appears to be net long, owns a substantial hedge against the long portfolio, but we really don’t know, and this information is probably useless to you.”

Of course, that doesn’t sell newspapers so that isn’t gonna work. Perhaps this headline from Daniel Lin works

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2016, 05:40:36 PM »



Former Fed President: "All My Very Rich Friends Are Hoarding Cash"

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 10, 2016 9:01 PM
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There were numerous interesting, informative and mostly bearish speakers during the latest Strategic Investment Conference held at the end of May.  Among them were Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Neil Howe, Jim Grant, Mark Yusko, Gary Shilling, and  JohnMauldin (readers can watch video interviews with these speakers on Mauldin Economics’ Youtube channel and their full presentations can be found at the following page) all of whom painted a very pessimistic picture for the stock market but, as Tony Sagami points out, the most alarming comment came from Richard Fisher.

Fisher was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 2005 to 2015. He was one of, perhaps the only, skeptic on the Fed board going into the great financial crisis, warning on numerous occasions about the upcoming crash only to be ignored by his wiser peers and certainly Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. He was also ignored in the post-Lehman era by both Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

Among his biggest concerns:

Government Debt: he is worried about the $19 trillion US government debt (up $11 trillion since 2008) because the Fed has fired all its monetary bullets and can’t expand the balance sheet any further.
China and social instability: he thinks communist leaders care about production but not efficiency. "They might produce more, but our products work," jokes Fisher. There are entire cities in China with nobody living in them, according to him. Fisher says the biggest problem in China is social stability. "I'm deeply worried about their ability to maintain social stability,” but... “It doesn’t affect us directly.” Another risk in China is that millions of people are pulling their money out of the country.
Low interest rates don't work: "We had a long period of moderation and low interet rares, which did nothing to adjust." The online countries that adjusted were Poland and Mexico, according to Fisher.
The failed Brazilian experiment: Fisher said Brazil is a symbol of what's wrong with emerging markets. They lived through the crisis but learned nothing from it.“Brazil has always been a country with potential, and it’s never been realized."
Raising rates is long overdue: he made the point that raising interest rates won’t ruin the economy. "The debt rollover is what we should be worried about. Yet nobody is talking about it."
It's all one big Ponzi scheme: “Our government has to borrow money just to pay interest.” Or as Minsky would say, this is the Ponzi finance stage, just before everything goes to hell. "We have a lot of unsound policy in place. It is agreeable, but in my view, it is unsound.”
The death of the middle class: Fisher says the lowest income quartile has seen an increase in income. The highest quartile has also seen a massive increase in income. The two middle quartiles were flat over a period of many years. “This is why we have such support for people like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.”
A ritalin monetary policy: “We have what I call a Ritalin based monetary policy.” Now Janet Yellen’s job is to wean it. “It has to do with taking the distortions out of the financial markets and letting the markets down easier.” “These are the lowest interest rates in 239 years of history.”
But as Sagami points out, Fisher’s most telling comment came during the Q&A session when he was asked how his personal portfolio was positioned. Fisher’s response: “In the fetal position.” Moreover, he also said that “all my very rich friends are hoarding cash.”


Not some, not many. All.


Which, incidentally may explain why as algos levitate markets on ever lower volume (volume which returns with a vengeance on even a moderate selloff such as today's), "smart money", insiders, retail investors and foreigners continue to quietly liquidate stocks for weeks on end. While it is unclear who is buying, what is clear is that increasingly more are getting out of risk assets and getting into cash.

For the sake of Fisher's friends we hope the cash they are hoarding is physical, and not of the electronic variety. After all, as Greece has shown vividly, it would only take the flick of a switch for the government to lock up, or Corzine, some or all of the $10+ trillion in bank deposits. And ultimately, since helicopter money is coming, even that physical cash will soon be worthless courtesy of near-infinite dilute, and the only monetary asset which would survive the hyperinflationary conflagration of the grand reset, is the same precious metals that have preserved their value through over 5,000 years of human stupidity. Which, ironically, reminds us that just because one is rich that does not make them smart.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2016, 07:40:11 AM »



Farage Threatens To "Destroy The Old EU" As Marc Faber Says Brexit "Best Thing In British History"

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by Tyler Durden - Jun 11, 2016 3:40 PM
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The European Union is an "empire that is hugely bureaucratic," warns Marc Faber, telling CNBC that he thinks that "a Brexit would be bullish for global economic growth," because "it would give other countries incentive to leave the badly organized EU." The Gloom, Boom & Doom-er explained that Brexit is a risk Britain should be willing to take, and that it would not be a disaster, "on the contrary, it would be the best thing for Britain that would ever happen!"

As CNBC reports, Faber defended his case by citing Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU nor the European Economic Area, but instead operates in the "single" market. That enables the Swiss to have rights in the U.K., but theoretically allows them to operate independently of both groups.

"Switzerland is doing much better than any other country in Europe. So maybe Britain would do the same?" said Faber.
 
While the Swiss franc has been relatively flat in the last month, notable highlights for Switzerland include the completion of a $12 billion rail tunnel, the longest in the world.
 
With expectations that Britain opts to leave the EU, Faber advised that investors should prepare for a market sell-off in the immediate aftermath, but that there will be long-term benefits.
 
"The establishment has said that if a Brexit occurs, they lose the export market. That's not true. They can make bilateral agreements," he exclaimed.
Faber advised that European nations should turn their focus to Asia, notably China and India, when it comes to finding fresh export partners. With this in mind, he concluded that Brexit would be a positive development for Britain and for Europe at large.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2016, 07:44:18 AM »



Morgan Stanley Asked Analysts How Companies Were "Exceeding Estimates", The Answer Is Disturbing

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by Tyler Durden - Jun 11, 2016 2:10 PM
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As we know, companies beating analyst estimates isn't really a big deal. After all, analysts need to maintain access to management and ensure everyone is sending buy orders through the brokerage, so it makes little sense to set expectations too high.

However, the way companies are exceeding analyst expectations is worth noting. According to a survey by Morgan Stanley, analysts responded that if firms exceed expectations to the upside, it was typically due to lower costs than higher revenues. Said otherwise, companies are not generating the top-line growth necessary to beat even the lowest of analyst expectations, and have focused on driving cost out in order to meet the street's expectations. After all, if the numbers miss, executives don't get as much out of those options and RSUs, and we can't be having that.

From Morgan Stanley

At the economy-wide level, corporate profits were down 7.1% year/year in 1Q16, a fourth consecutive decline, and after-tax profits have fallen 15.5% in the six quarters since their peak in 3Q14. With profits coming under pressure, analysts' responses in our survey have increasingly pointed to lower costs (expenses) as the primary reason why companies have exceeded estimates to the upside, while higher top-line growth has been cited much less frequently as a driver of any upside in earnings.


Cost reduction efforts lead to another important discussion, which is that if firms are reducing costs so the street is happy, then implicitly hiring is not part of the future plan. This is confirmed with Morgan Stanley's hiring plans index, which has grown increasingly worse since the end of 2014, with cost reduction efforts intensifying shortly thereafter.




The cost reduction efforts along with lower plans for hiring have of course led to a slowing trend in actual payroll growth, as MS points out.

The slowdown in hiring plans has tracked the trend of cost-reduction in company earnings fairly closely (Exhibit 4), and has also coincided with the slowing in trend payroll growth (Exhibit 5), offering some evidence that headwinds from earnings pressure in the corporate sector may indeed be a factor behind the recent slowdown in hiring.



All of this of course leads to payroll numbers like we saw for May, when a meager 38,000 jobs were added.




* * *

The overall point is that companies aren't getting the top line cover needed to hit analyst estimates and are scrambling to reduce costs. As this cycle occurs, typically hiring freezes are implemented and it's not unheard of that merit increases get frozen as well at the end of the year. If one believes that the global economy will pick back up and help revenues recover, then this isn't something to worry about - however if the opposite is true, then cost cuts will continue to intensify and we could be in for more dismal and "unexpectedly light" earnings and jobs numbers in the future.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2016, 05:59:17 AM »



Paul Singer Joins Icahn, Soros; Warns "It's A Very Dangerous Time To Be In The Market", Buys Gold

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by Tyler Durden - Jun 12, 2016 5:31 PM
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Over the past month, between Stan Druckenmiller, Carl Icahn and most recently George Soros, it has become positively cool to be a billionaire who has turned their back on the rigged market, and has decided to either get out of stocks or go outright net short (Soros and Icahn), while concurrently buying gold.  Over the weekend, yet another billionaire made waves, when Paul Singer told Institutional Investor in an interview that not only has the Fed's "monetary extremism" hindered economic expansion, blasting monetary policy as adding to not only the world's debt but its social problems (including lack of wage growth), warns that "at the moment we’re either in a stage of stagnation or rollover, possibly in the early stages of a global recession", predicts that "it’s a very dangerous time in the financial markets" and concludes that "we’re very bullish on gold, which is the anti–paper money, of course, and is underowned by investors around the world."



As Institutional Investor writes, one of the
keys to Elliott’s success has been Singer’s ability
to avoid losing money during market dislocations. “If you
break even in a bear market or crash or financial crisis,
you’re way ahead of the game,” he says. The legendary
investor, who will be receiving an IInvestor Lifetime Achievement Award at the firm's annual Hedge Fund Industry Awards dinner on June 23 at the
Mandarin Oriental in New York, recently spoke with
Michael Peltz about the
challenges he sees in the current global macroeconomic
environment.


He was very, very bearish.

Why have developed economies been unable to achieve
the growth they had prior to the global financial
crisis?


I believe the reason is a bad policy mix due to an
unwillingness on the part of all of the governments of the
developed world to take the normal and obvious fiscal steps to
increase growth. Instead, in the absence of pro-growth policies
on the fiscal side, the sole support in the developed world has
been monetary policy. There’s been a more or less
universally practiced set of monetary policies consisting of
zero and now negative interest rates and so-called quantitative
easing — various forms of asset buying. It started out as
all bond buying, but now it’s leaked into equities. The
result of all that — I call it monetary extremism —
is that the economies have held up and had some growth, but
that growth has been tepid, with the biggest gains going to
those who own financial assets while wage growth has been
stagnant.

What has been the biggest impact of monetary
extremism?

The major impact has been this exacerbating effect on
inequality. The large rise in asset prices in conjunction with
continued sluggish growth is a terrible mixture, and it is part
of the equation of why you have this bubbling-up edginess in
society among the middle and working class in the developed
world because of underemployment. The cure for the crisis
— for the debt crisis, the financial crisis — has
been deemed by the developed world governments to be more debt.
There has not been a deleveraging. And after seven and a half
years and counting of this mix of policies, at the moment
we’re either in a stage of stagnation or rollover,
possibly in the early stages of a global recession. So I think
it’s a very dangerous time in the financial markets.

Have policymakers relied too much on central banks
to fix the global economy post-GFC?

Well, that’s a great question, because I’d go
further. The lack of humility among central bankers —
which is proven by the combination of no apology and no
understanding of the financial system precrisis, and by
continuously, significantly erroneous projections postcrisis
— is incredible. At the same time, presidents and prime
ministers have been perfectly willing, desirous even, of
letting the central bankers continue their emergency
policies. They are grateful to the
central banks for holding up the world, which gives them
— the presidents and prime ministers — the excuse
not to engage in pro-growth policies. So they can stand there
and bash capitalists or bankers and get votes that way,
because it distracts attention from their own failures. But
bashing capitalism is ultimately dangerous. The reason
policymakers think it works is because seven and a half years
and counting, the world hasn’t fallen apart and they
haven’t been called to task.

What can policymakers do to avoid another
crisis?


Policymakers can transition the financial system into
being sounder and more transparent, and transition macro
policy away from quantitative easing. Stop the bond buying,
stop the equity buying, but only while simultaneously
implementing pro-growth policies in the tax, regulatory and
structural areas. If not actually cutting taxes, making
business formation easier and making their regulatory
environments attractive to business location and expansion
— including improvements in trade policy, education
policy and job training and retraining. Raising interest
rates and stopping QE without structural, pro-growth reforms
would be negative, creating an instant recession. So you have
to do both, together.

What can investors do?

We’re very bullish on
gold, which is the anti–paper money, of course, and
is underowned by investors around the world. And we are very
skeptical about markets. We hedge every equity position.
We’re not in the mood to be surprised — surprised
in the sense of losing large amounts of money — ever,
but in particular now with this extraordinary and
unprecedented situation where the stability of financial
markets is so dependent on confidence in policy makers and
central bankers.

I believe the reason is a bad policy mix due to an
unwillingness on the part of all of the governments of the
developed world to take the normal and obvious fiscal steps to
increase growth. Instead, in the absence of pro-growth policies
on the fiscal side, the sole support in the developed world has
been monetary policy. There’s been a more or less
universally practiced set of monetary policies consisting of
zero and now negative interest rates and so-called quantitative
easing — various forms of asset buying. It started out as
all bond buying, but now it’s leaked into equities. The
result of all that — I call it monetary extremism —
is that the economies have held up and had some growth, but
that growth has been tepid, with the biggest gains going to
those who own financial assets while wage growth has been
stagnant.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2016, 06:02:12 AM »



'Leave' Takes Shocking 19-Point Lead In Brexit Poll - "If It Happens, Gold Will Be The World's Strongest Currency"

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by Tyler Durden - Jun 12, 2016 1:59 PM
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The headlines go from bad to worse for the UK and EU establishment as yet another new poll this weekend, by Opinium, shows "Brexit" leading by a remarkable 19 points (52% chose to leave the EU against 33% choosing to keep the status quo). This result comes after 2 polls Friday night showing a 10-point lead for "leave" which sparked anxiety across markets. This surge in "leave" probability comes despite an additional 1.5 million voters having registered this week (which many expected to increase "remain" support). Further anger towards EU was exposed when former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith warned that seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals (presumedly due to 'staying' in the EU). With market anxiety rising, as One River's CIO notes, if Brexit happens, gold will soar.
 



A NEW poll has given those wishing to leave the EU a remarkable 19-POINT lead over Remain. As The Express reports,


The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.
 
It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.
 
Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn't know.
 
Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico.
Speaking last night Robert Oulds, director of the Bruges Group, said it was important to drive home the fact that a post-Brexit Britain will have a range of options which allow trade with the European Economic Area.

"This new poll shows there are a majority of voters who prefer an economic rather than economic and political arrangement with the EU. These include people who might otherwise have voted to remain in the EU," he said.
 
“Clearly we can be free, have more democracy and be better off if we ditch or cancel our EU membership, and join a Free Trade Agreement like the one people thought they were voting for in 1975.”
Furthermore, many Brits are talking about Iain Duncan Smith's claims the UK already spends £150m a year housing EU criminals, and that, if Britain "remains" in the EU, seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals... (via Sky News)

Former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith has warned 3,993 additional jail places will be needed for EU convicts if current levels of migration continue, and if the percentage of migrants who commit prison-worthy crimes matches the rest of the UK population.
 
This is the equivalent of another seven jails the size of Full Sutton prison in York, which can accommodate 606 inmates.
 
Mr Duncan Smith believes that if the UK remains in the EU, the problem will only worsen in the years to come - with the likes of Turkey, Macedonia and Albania vying to join the bloc.
 
The Conservative MP and Out campaigner said: "Our prisons already hold over 4,000 criminals from the EU, costing taxpayers more than £150m a year.
 
"Our analysis shows UK taxpayers will have to pay an extra £400m just to keep EU criminals in jail. It will mean prisons are more crowded, less safe and less able to prevent inmates returning to crime.
 
"If we vote to leave, we can take back control of our borders and send EU criminals back to their own countries. We will be able to keep out terrorists and kick out criminals."
 
Vote Leave's estimate, which is based on net migration levels from the EU continuing at a rate of 184,000 a year until 2030, have been questioned by Britain Stronger In Europe.
Finally, as One River Capital's CIO remarked...


“Gambling websites say Brexit’s a 3-1 bet against,” said the CIO.
 
“And if you polled every one of us who wager for a living, I reckon 90% would say the Brits Bremain.” I mooed in agreement, nose nestled in tail, huddled in the herd.
 
He mooed back. “But the polls are 50/50, margin-of-error kind of stuff, and they were pretty good in the Scottish referendum, the London mayoral vote too.”
 
Brexit would be as shocking for markets as it is unlikely. Which is why no one can ignore it. “All I know is that if it happens, gold will be the strongest currency in the world.”
Which may explain this...



*  *  *

WHAT’S NEXT?

Leader of the opposition to answer questions on the referendum on June 20 on Sky News
BBC will host TV debates June 15 and June 21
The June 21 debate may prove to be a key market event, Credit Suisse says in a client note
Campaigns are expected to turn their focus to encouraging the electorate to vote; turnout could play a vital role, Jamie Searle at Citigroup writes in client note; The lower the turnout, the better it is thought to be for “leave”
WHAT’S THE LIKELY REFERENDUM OUTCOME?

Remain’s lead in Standard Chartered’s poll of polls is 7ppt, suggesting the outcome is still uncertain
Citigroup analysts said last week they are increasingly concerned on the polls and the implication for domestic political stability after the vote due to growing rancor within the Conservative Party
JPMorgan’s Malcolm Barr though says the supposed move toward leave looks more like noise than signal
SEB says probably need a 10ppt lead in polls to be certain they’re predicting the outcome correctly; Standard Chartered would review downside call for the GBP, if poll of polls consistently showed more than a 13ppt lead for remain, analyst Eimear Daly writes
Estimated odds of Brexit by UBS WM, Citigroup, IHS, SocGen and Eurasia range from ~30% to 40%; Julius Baer cut the est. probability to 30% vs 30%-40%

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE REMAIN CAMP WINS?

Even if the U.K. votes to remain in the EU, divisions resulting from the vote could lead to early elections, according to Morgan Stanley analysts - The bank’s economists say even if the “Remain” camp wins, slower growth and weaker inflation would push a BOE rate increase back to early 2017
Meanwhile, ING analysts say if the U.K. votes against Brexit, the BOE could lift rates as soon as Nov.; BNY Mellon analysts note GBP strength after the Scottish referendum faded just hours after the result
Julian Wolfson, co-head of research & political strategist at Odey Asset Management, says issues are likely to continue even if the U.K. votes to stay and Brexit risk could linger for GBP
WHAT HAPPENS ON A BREXIT?

ECB stands ready to offer euro liquidity via swap lines, Governing Council member Ilmars Rimsevics said
Govt paper on the process of withdrawing from the EU shows U.K. and union members will have 2 years to negotiate initially; period can be extended if all remaining 27 members agree
Much of debate over a potential exit centers on how easy it will be for the U.K. to sign new trade deals and whether the country becomes a less attractive place to invest outside the EU
BofAML economists say an exit would mean the U.K. would have to renegotiate deals with other regions in addition to Europe; populist backlash in the U.S. and elsewhere may make new agreements difficult
Large current-account deficit is one of U.K.’s key economic vulnerabilities, CBA analysts write in note - Uncertainty after a “leave” vote could increase risk premia in GBP assets; investors would want higher rate of return to compensate for perceived risks or may simply reduce exposures
Replacing lost FDI likely to spur higher risk premia in a range of sterling assets, BOE deputy governor Ben Broadbent said last month
MPC won’t be able to immediately offset all effects of shocks, Carney said
Capital Economics says ECB may need to take further action; such an outcome could cause financial-market volatility, potentially adverse effects on euro-area economy and financial sector
In event of Brexit, “referendum-itis” will be catching from Catalonia to Netherlands, in France could change the outcome of next year’s presidential election, Wolfson says
Source: Bloomberg

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2016, 10:33:32 AM »



恐慌指數VIX單日飆23%!連6漲、去年8月以來首見
回應(0) 人氣(84) 收藏(0) 2016/06/14 09:37
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-14 09:37:21 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)、日本央行(BOJ)的貨幣政策決議即將在台北時間16日陸續出爐,指數編撰公司MSCI明晟(MSCI Inc.)則會在本週二(6月14日)決定是否要納入A股,而英國下週(6月23日)還將公投是否脫離歐盟,諸多重要事件使投資人不敢輕舉妄動,歐亞股市13日跳水,更使美股投資人緊張情緒飆高。
芝加哥選擇權交易所(CBOE)用來衡量市場恐慌氣氛的波動率指數(VIX)在上週五大漲16.33%後,13日再次狂飆23.14%、收20.97點,創去(2015)年12月11日以來最大單日漲幅,已連續6個交易日上揚。這也是VIX自2月29日以來首度站上20點整數大關。
CNBC 13日報導,Convergex市場策略長Nick Colas 13日在接受「Power Lunch」節目專訪時指出,VIX現在反映的不只一兩件事,而是五、六件重要大事,這才是問題所在。Colas所指的是英國脫歐公投、羅素指數(Russell)重新平衡、銀行壓力測試結果、聯準會(Fed)貨幣政策聲明以及時序進入季底等等。

VIX自去(2015)年8月起就從未出現過連漲六個交易日的情況,而標準普爾500指數在當時的六日內總共大跌11%,VIX則狂飆三倍以上、於去年8月24日躍上40點整數大關。
不過,這次標普500表現卻相當平穩、過去6個交易日僅下滑0.96%,VIX也只勉強站上長期平均值(20點)、過去6個交易日來漲幅只有55%。
在去年8月之前,VIX連漲6日的情況僅在2013年12月出現過,當時正好是Fed宣布要減碼量化寬鬆貨幣政策(QE)之際。
追蹤VIX的ETF同步跳漲。VelocityShares每日二倍做多短期波動率指數ETN (VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN,代號為TVIX.US)13日飆漲28.89%、收3.48美元,創5月5日以來收盤新高。(見左圖)
不過,MarketWatch報導,值得注意的是,VIX最近雖然跳高,但其200日移動平均線仍暗示市場疑慮依舊不多。(圖表見此)


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2016, 10:35:15 AM »


《美債》避險買盤湧入!殖利率連5跌、摔至三年半低
回應(0) 人氣(240) 收藏(0) 2016/06/14 08:17
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-14 08:17:40 記者 郭妍希 報導
英國可能公投脫離歐盟、進而衝擊歐洲整體經濟,聯準會(Fed)、日本央行(BOJ)還將在本週召開貨幣政策會議,使得避險氣氛益發濃厚,在亞洲、歐洲股市紛紛跳水,美股也跟著走弱的影響下,美國10年期公債價格連續第5個交易日上揚,殖利率跟著摔至三年半以來新低。
MarketWatch報導,道瓊報價顯示,紐約債市13日尾盤時,對聯準會(Fed)利率決策較敏感的美國2年期公債殖利率下跌2.1個基點至0.718%,創5月9日以來新低;10年期公債殖利率下跌2.2個基點至1.616%,創2012年12月6日以來新低;30年期公債殖利率下跌1.6個基點2.431%,創2015年2月以來新低。公債價格與殖利率呈反向走勢。
在歐洲方面,Tradeweb報價顯示,德國10年期公債殖利率上升0.5個基點至0.025%,仍在歷史低點附近徘徊;英國10年期公債殖利率則下跌1.4個基點至1.212%,創歷史新低紀錄。

聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)貨幣政策會議預定6月14-15日召開,而日央則會緊接著在6月15-16日召開會議。雖然投資人認為Fed不太可能在15日宣布升息,但仍會密切關注央行繪製的利率預期點狀圖(dot plot,圖表可顯示每一位央行政策官員對利率的展望)。
芝加哥商業交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具顯示,聯邦基金期貨投資人13日預估的6月升息機率只有2%,7月的機率也僅18%。
另一方面,日本、歐洲央行實施負利率,使投資人對殖利率較高的長天期公債胃口大增。MarketWatch報導,美國10年期、2年期公債利差在13日收斂至89.8個基點,創2007年11月以來新低,出現殖利率曲線走平的現象。


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2016, 11:06:50 AM »
MY VIEW IS BRITAIN WILL REMAIN ... NO EXIT

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2016, 02:20:11 PM »



George Soros Is Preparing For Economic Collapse – Does He Know Something You Don’t?
Posted on June 13, 2016 by The Doc   18 Comments   2,500 views
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Home » Headlines » Finance News » George Soros Is Preparing For Economic Collapse – Does He Know Something You Don’t?


Why is George Soros selling stocks, buying gold and making “a series of big, bearish investments”?  If things stay relatively stable like they are right now, these moves will likely cost George Soros a tremendous amount of money.
But if a major financial crisis is imminent, he stands to make obscene returns.
So does George Soros know something that you don’t?

Silver Eagle SD Bullion

From Michael Snyder:

Could it be possible that he has spent too much time reading websites such as ZH or SD?  What are we to make of all of this?

The recent trading moves that Soros has made are so big and so bearish that they have even gotten the attention of the Wall Street Journal…


Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.

Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.
Hmmm – it sounds suspiciously like George Soros and Michael Snyder are on the exact same page as far as what is about to happen to the global economy.

You know that it is very late in the game when that starts happening…

One thing that George Soros is particularly concerned about that I haven’t been talking a lot about yet is the upcoming Brexit vote.  If the United Kingdom leaves the EU (and hopefully they will), the short-term consequences for the European economy could potentially be absolutely catastrophic…

Mr. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU.

“If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable,” he said.
The Brexit vote will be held two weeks from today on June 23rd, and we shall be watching to see what happens.

But Soros is not just concerned about a potential Brexit.  The economic slowdown in China also has him very worried, and so he has directed his firm to make extremely bearish wagers.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the last time Soros made these kinds of bearish moves was back in 2007, and it resulted in more than a billion dollars of gains for his company.

Of course Soros is not alone in his bearish outlook.  In fact, Goldman Sachs has just warned that “there may be significant risk to the downside for the market”…

Goldman Sachs is getting nervous about stocks.

In a note to clients, equity strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann outlined the firm’s fears that there may be significant risk to the downside for the market.
Ultimately, George Soros and Goldman Sachs are looking at the same economic data that I share with my readers on a daily basis.

As I have been documenting for months, almost every single economic indicator that you can possibly think of says that we are heading into a recession.

For instance, just today I was sent a piece by Mike Shedlock that showed that federal and state tax receipts are really slowing down just like they did just prior to the last two recessions…

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is theEvercore ISI State Tax Survey.

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

Tax Receipts - Mish Shedlock

And online job postings on LinkedIn have now been falling precipitously since February after 73 months in a row of growth…

After 73 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, online jobs postings have been in decline since February. May was by far the worst month since January 2009, down 285k from April and down 552k from a year ago.
Last week, the government issued the worst jobs report in nearly six years, and the energy industry continues to bleed good paying middle class jobs at a staggering rate.  The following comes from oilprice.com…

That may seem counterintuitive in an industry that has been rapidly shedding workers, with more than 350,000 people laid off in the oil and gas industry worldwide.

Texas is one place feeling the pain. Around 99,000 direct and indirect jobs in the Lone Star state have been eliminated since prices collapsed two years ago, or about one third of the entire industry. In April alone there were about 6,300 people in oil and gas and supporting services that were handed pink slips. Employment in Texas’ oil sector is close to levels not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. “We’re still losing big chunks of jobs with each passing month,” Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist, told The Houston Chronicle.
At this point it is so obvious that we have entered a new economic downturn that I don’t know how anyone can possibly deny it any longer.

Unfortunately, the reality of what is happening has not sunk in with the general population yet.

Just like 2008, people are feverishly racking up huge credit card balances even though we stand on the precipice of a major financial crisis…

American taxpayers are quick to criticize the federal government for its ever-increasing national debt, but a new study released Wednesday found taxpayers are also saddled with debt, and are likely to end 2016 with a record high $1 trillion in outstanding balances.

Wallethub, a site that recommends credit cards based on consumers’ needs, said that will be the highest amount of credit card debt on record, surpassing even the years during and before the Great Recession. The site said the record high was in 2008, when people owed $984.2 billion on their credit cards.
Will we ever learn?

This has got to be one of the worst possible times to be going into credit card debt.

Sadly, the “* money” will continue to act * and the “smart money” (such as George Soros) will continue to quietly position themselves to take advantage of the crisis that is already starting to unfold.

We can’t change what is happening to the economy, but we do have control over the choices that we make.

So I urge you to please make your choices wisely.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2016, 03:31:57 PM »



It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating T-Bonds
Posted on June 13, 2016 by The Doc   55 Comments   12,349 views
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Home » Headlines » World News » It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating T-Bonds


China gold“It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves…”

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden:

On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once.

We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China’s devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.


But even as the cat was out of the bag for readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted “substantial selling pressure” in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the “Far East”, and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.

Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg:

 
 
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales,said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.

 

The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.

 



 

The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.
Now that what has been glaringly obvious for at least six months has been given the official mainstream stamp of fact-based approval, the all-clear has been given for rampant speculation on what exactly this means for US monetary policy. Here’s Bloomberg again:


 
 
China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP.“It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”

 

“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”
As we discussed on Wednesday evening, we do, thanks to a review of the extant academic literature undertaken by Citi, have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. “Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year – this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ,” Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.

In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there’s an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it’s not just China that’s in the process of liquidating USD assets.



The clear takeaway is that there’s a substantial amount of upward pressure building for UST yields and that is a decisively undesirable situation for the Fed to find itself in going into September. On Wednesday we summed the situation up as follows: “one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4.”

Well now that China’s UST liquidation frenzy has reached a pace where it could no longer be swept under the rug and/or played down as inconsequential, and now that Bill Dudley has officially opened the door for “additional quantitative easing”, it would appear that the only way to prevent China and EM UST liquidation from, as Citi puts it, “choking off the US housing market,” and exerting a kind of forced tightening via the UST transmission channel, will be for the FOMC to usher in QE4

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2016, 06:13:19 PM »



German 10-year sovereign bond yields turn negative for first time
Saheli Roy Choudhury   | Matt Clinch
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The yield on the 10-year benchmark German bund fell into negative territory for the first time ever on Tuesday morning, amid global growth concerns and jitters over the U.K.'s upcoming referendum on its European Union membership.

At around 8.30 a.m. London time, the yield hit zero and briefly fell into negative territory as investors continued to flock to safe-haven assets. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions and a negative yield implies that investors are effectively paying the German government for the privilege of parking their cash.

A spokesperson for the German Federal Debt Agency spoke immediately after the milestone was reached, stating that the tradability of federal securities is "still very high."

"The federal debt-management strategy is long-term, therefore, the current absolute yield level plays only a subordinate role. Our target remains a sustainable balance between cost and planning security for the debt portfolio," the agency said in an email to CNBC.

The move comes as the European Central Bank has ramped up its bond buying program in recent months as well as investor uncertainty over whether the U.K. will stay in the European Union.

The latter is sparking volatility across financial markets with a beneficiary of the tumult being government bonds. The latest trigger has been two new polls out of the U.K. which showed the Brexit camp is gaining momentum.

An ORB poll for the Telegraph showed 48 percent of Britons would vote to remain in the European Union, while 49 percent would vote to leave.

A YouGov poll for the Times of London showed 46 percent preferred to leave, while 39 percent wanted to remain. Popular British newspaper The Sun also endorsed the leave vote for the upcoming referendum vote on June 23.

"We don't know what is happening with Brexit," said Gareth Nicholson, an investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia. "The thing we can agree on is that the market volatility is going to increase...the volatility is not good for the broader markets, and that's why you see weakness in foreign exchange and equity."
VIX spikes


The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, spiked above 21 for the first time since Feb. 25 on Monday while major equity indexes sold off.

The British pound traded at $1.4163 against the dollar Tuesday afternoon Asia time, compared to levels around $1.4600 in late May.
As investors scurried out of riskier assets, they have found comfort in bonds. To be sure, expectations of interest rates staying lower for longer have also supported bonds.
The 10-year Treasury yield was near 1.61 percent on Monday afternoon local time, around its lowest since Feb. 11. The yield on the 10-year and 30-year British government bonds, known as the gilts, also hit record lows on Tuesday morning.
Moves in some bond markets have been even more extreme. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield was at a record low of minus 0.163 percent on Tuesday afternoon.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2016, 05:50:13 AM »



Why Soros’ Bearish Bet Is Hardly Far-Fetched
Mohamed El-Erian lays out warning signs to monitor. And why presidential politics do matter to markets.

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By JOHN KIMELMAN
June 13, 2016

George Soros, billionaire and founder of Soros Fund Management LLC Bloomberg News
There’s nothing like a bearish bet by a legendary macro investor to ratchet up investor fears.

In what was arguably the biggest investment story of last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that hedge-fund billionaire George Soros was betting against western markets.

The scoop, written by Greg Zuckerman, the Journal’s long-time hedge-fund beat writer, reported that Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Zuckerman reported that Soros, who had retreated from active investing in recent years, was now more engaged in money management and quite concerned about where equity markets are heading.

In an email interview with Zuckerman, Soros wrote that his bearish concerns are being fueled by his belief that the Chinese economy will grow weaker and that the European Union could fall apart in the coming years, with Great Britain possibly being the first major country to voluntarily exit from the economic pact.

But Soros is not the only respected big-picture investor who is concerned about what lies ahead for markets. In a piece Monday for Bloomberg View, Mohamed El-Erian, the ex head of the Harvard University endowment fund and the chief economic advisor for German financial-services giant Allianz, discussed six events that could weigh on markets in the weeks ahead.

Among other concerns, El-Erian mentions the June 23 “Brexit” vote in the United Kingdom, a major slip by China as it tries to implement financial policies aimed at balancing liquidity support for the economy with the orderly management of a credit boom, and a “ renewed scare about the European banks that have lagged in raising capital and strengthening internal operating approaches.”

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He also pointed to the U.S. presidential race as a concern, adding that “indications that the isolationist tone of the U.S. presidential primaries is more than just rhetoric and posturing, but signals a decisive change in decades of U.S. leadership for economic and financial globalization.”

But to his credit, El-Erian also warns about the dangers of betting against a stock market the way Soros is.

Referring to concerns shadowing stocks, El-Erian cautions that “this state of affairs isn’t sufficient to ensure that bets against the current valuations of stock markets around the world will be highly profitable. Timing matters -- particularly when it comes to pinpointing events that could be catalysts for a correction.”

Meanwhile, veteran financial writer Daniel Gross has his own take on the role that the U.S. presidential campaign will play on stock values.

Many on Wall Street contend, almost reflexively, that presidential politics plays at most a secondary role in moving stock prices; they argue that traditional yardsticks like consumer demand and interest rate moves will always be the main drivers of stock values.

As Gross points out in a piece for Fortune, “entrepreneurs decide whether to open another restaurant, or a furniture store, or a hedge fund, based on whether they see demand or market opportunity – not on who they think might control Congress next year, or whether a presidential candidate might propose raising the tax rate on capital gains.”

But Gross, a former columnist with Newsweek and the Daily Beast, contends that this year “might actually be different, in large part because presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump seems to revel in fomenting uncertainty.”

As Gross put it, “Trump has consciously set out to violate or alter the norms surrounding political campaigning, and has been succeeding (beyond everyone’s wildest expectations) in doing so.”

Gross wonders why “all that uncertainty is likely to give pause to a large number of companies and employees in a range of industries.”

To back up his argument, Gross points to the impact Trump’s anti-Mexico comments might be having on business relations between the U.S. and Mexico.

“For example, U.S. and Mexico have been considering jointly bidding to host a future World Cup – which would have immense economic and business consequences,” Gross writes. “But this week, Sunil Gulati, president of the U.S. Soccer Federation, said there would be great uncertainty surrounding such a bid if Trump, who proposes building a wall between Mexico and the U.S. were to be elected.”

Then there’s China. “In recent years, China-based buyers have emerged as key players in the bidding for the sale of U.S. assets — condominiums, homes, factories, entire businesses. Should president Trump ignite a trade war with one of America’s largest trading partners it could stanch the flow of capital or cause the Chinese government to crack down on outbound investment.”

It would be easy to dismiss Gross’ comments as the latest round of anti-Trump propaganda from a left-leaning press. But Gross’ examples seem plausible and can’t be ignored.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #25 on: June 15, 2016, 05:54:20 AM »



There's an odd disconnect between the fear index and the market
Alex Rosenberg   | @AcesRose
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Market fear is rising, but it would appear that someone forgot to tell the market.

The CBOE Volatility Index looks set to log its seventh straight rise Tuesday, in what would be only the third time the VIX has managed that long a string of gains in the past 20 years. But what is even more unusual is how the S&P 500 is responding to the surge in expected volatility.

The S&P and the VIX tend to have a strong inverse correlation, which makes sense, since the VIX roughly tracks nervousness over potential market downside. But in the current VIX rise, the market has stayed remarkably stable.

In the six days ended Monday, which saw the VIX jump 56 percent, the S&P 500 was down less than 1 percent. That is in sharp contrast to the average S&P drop of 6.7 percent during six-day periods in which the VIX has risen 55 percent or more. In fact, never before in the past 20 years of market data has the S&P been down this little in a six-day period that saw the VIX rise by this much.

The VIX is not the only potential measure of fear that has seen a dramatic rise of late. Gold prices have increased about $40 per troy ounce in the same period. And bitcoin's considerable rise over the past few days has once again put the so-called cryptocurrency in the headlines.

So why is the fear dog barking while no one is at the metaphorical market door?

"People are buying puts and calls because they don't know what the [heck] is going to happen," Dennis Davitt, partner at Harvest Volatility Management, said Tuesday. "There's just great uncertainty."

That is, risk assets around the world are fast approaching a purely binary event — the British referendum to exit the EU. While a win for the "leave" movement once appeared a considerable long shot, polls have shown substantial growth in those who say they will vote for separation, and on Tuesday afternoon online betting market PredictIt implied a 43 percent chance that leave will win.

For this reason, it naturally makes sense that both bullish and bearish options have become more valuable, as a decision to stay removes a major potential risk to the global economy, and a decision to leave could have seriously negative implications.

But there is another reason the mild market reaction makes sense. The rise in the VIX has come off of markedly low levels, and even at its Tuesday highs, the VIX was not much above its classic long-term average of 20.

This means that the VIX may be catching up to market sentiment more than portraying a major shift in risk appetites

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #26 on: June 15, 2016, 08:20:01 AM »



Bilderberg Chairman Warns Brexit Possibility "Extremely High"

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 14, 2016 3:01 PM
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Just day after their mysterious annual meeting in Dresden, it appears The Bilderberg Group's gravest concern is Brexit. While everything from The Middle East to Donald Trump was on the agenda, the remarks this week from AXA CEO (and Chairman of The Bilderberg Group) Henri de Castries that there is an "extremely high" probability that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union and investors will face “a true landscape of uncertainties," suggest the establishment is concerned.



As Bloomberg reports, neither the U.K. nor the EU region is prepared for negotiations that would follow a vote to leave on June 23, de Castries said at a conference in Paris...

“If they remain, the situation isn’t simple either, and this is underestimated by lots of people,” because the result will be interpreted differently by each side, he said.
 
De Castries, who is stepping down from France’s largest insurer at the start of September, became one of the few executives to speak out on the likelihood of a British vote to exit the EU. The Sun, Britain’s biggest-selling newspaper, backed a so-called Brexit on its front page on Tuesday. Several polls on Monday also put the “Leave” campaign ahead. The pound and European stocks plunged.
 
If the U.K. votes to leave the EU, any complacency in the subsequent negotiations could encourage some other countries to seek special treatment within the political bloc, threatening "to accelerate the unraveling of Europe," de Castries said.
Think that this is a "tempest in a teapot"? Think again. If the chairman of The Bilderberg Group is worried, then that means all of these entitites are 'worried' and preparing

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #27 on: June 15, 2016, 09:05:11 AM »



《美債》殖利率續跌!FOMC提全球風險 = 7月不升息?
回應(0) 人氣(11) 收藏(0) 2016/06/15 08:13
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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #28 on: June 15, 2016, 04:32:58 PM »





Warren Buffett's Favorite Valuation Tool Shows Stocks Are Even Less Attractive Than Record-Low Yielding Bonds Right Now
Jun.15.16 | About: iShares Core (AGG) Get Alerts
Jesse Felder   Jesse Felder⊕Follow(749 followers)
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I recently detailed why using the "Fed Model" to buy stocks has never been more dangerous. In this post, I want to demonstrate another method that shows why stocks aren't attractive relative to bonds right now.

Way back in 1992, Warren Buffett wrote about this very thing. In his letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) shareholders that year, he suggested investors ought to simply weigh the valuations of stocks versus bonds and buy whichever is more attractive. That only sounds rational, right?

Looking at bonds today, the 10-year Treasury currently yields 1.6%. Not great, but it is what it is. And that's the easy part of this two-fold process. Determining what stocks are likely to return over the next decade is a bit more difficult.

But Warren gives us an effective tool for this process as well. His favorite valuation indicator for the broad stock market, total market cap-to-GDP, is very highly correlated with future 10-year returns in the stock market. When stocks have been very highly valued, forward returns have been very poor, and vice versa.



Right now, this indicator once again shows the broad stock market to be very highly valued. In fact, it is so highly valued that it forecasts a negative average annual return over the coming decade. So while bonds' super-low yields appear to be very unattractive, according to this measure, stocks' prospective returns are even worse.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #29 on: June 22, 2016, 08:15:17 AM »



Federal Reserve says U.S. stocks have gotten expensive

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: June 21, 2016 4:48 p.m. ET

     34 
‘Equity prices vulnerable to rises in term premiums to more normal levels’
Reuters
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen meets with former chairs Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker in New York, April 7, 2016.
Even the Federal Reserve is weighing in on valuations in the U.S. stock market.

In its monetary policy report submitted to the Congress ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony, the central bank acknowledges that stock values have grown somewhat richer since the beginning of 2016. Here’s how they put it:

“Forward price-to-earnings ratios for equities have increased to a level well above their median of the past three decades. Although equity valuations do not appear to be rich relative to Treasury yields, equity prices are vulnerable to rises in term premiums to more normal levels, especially if a reversion was not motivated by positive news about economic growth.”
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.27% closed higher Tuesday, up 0.3% at 2,088 and it appears investors are shrugging off both the testimony and the report on valuations.


Of course, not everyone views the Fed as an authority on stock values and some analysts and traders disagree with the notion that equities have gotten pricey.

“No one looks to the Fed as a chief market strategist and markets have their own dynamics on valuing stocks,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

In Crosby’s opinion “stocks are fully valued at these levels.” She says “what investors want to hear is whether companies’ earnings will start improving. Whether the Fed decides that stocks are undervalued or overvalued does not have an impact on prices.”

Wall Street tends to turn to the U.S. central bank for clues about the pace of interest-rate increases, the health of the labor market and to get a gauge on inflation. It’s rare that it offers specifics on sectors or assets but it isn’t totally unprecedented.

Back in 2014, Yellen said valuations for technology stocks were stretched in her congressional testimony, resulting in a selloff in social-media names, which were booming at the time.

Going back to mid-1990s, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sounded the alarm on tech stocks too. But his famous “irrational exuberance” comments didn’t pop the tech bubble when he delivered them in 1996. It would take another four years before the air rushed out.

Others have made the case that today’s stocks are a touch rich. According to FactSet, 12-forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.8. That is above its 10-year average of 14.6.

Read: By this measure, U.S. stocks are more expensive than ever

Stocks also are pricey based on another measure. The cyclically-adjusted Shiller PE, which factors price-to-earnings ratios based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, is at 26.2, representing its highest level since 2007.

As the Fed alludes in its comments, investors have been driven into stocks because low and negative-interest yielding assets emerging in many parts of the world aren’t offering better options.

But just because stocks are registering as pricey by some measures doesn’t mean that investors should necessarily sell. Stocks can always head higher despite being expensive.

Yellen & Co. aren’t sounding any alarm bells just yet, but the central bank’s comments on stock values is in the spirit of focusing on the stability of financial markets. Inflated valuations can lead to bubbles and that can be a problem.

To be sure, the lack of better-returning assets is partially a problem borne out of the Fed and other central banks, which have been implementing a raft of quantitative easing measures to boost sluggish economies, which have created some distortions in the market, including those negative yielding sovereign bonds.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2016, 08:18:52 AM »



Opinion: What the ‘single best stock-market predictor’ is saying now

By Mark Hulbert
Published: June 21, 2016 8:24 a.m. ET

     20 
Look at the percentage of household financial assets invested in equities

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — The stock market’s return over the next 10 years will be barely a third of its historical average.

That’s the sobering forecast of a stock-market indicator its creator calls—with some justification—the “single best stock market predictor.”

The brainchild of the website Philosophical Economics, it is based on the percentage of household financial assets invested in equities. It is a contrarian indicator, with high-percentage equity allocations leading to below-average stock-market returns over the subsequent 10 years—and vice versa.


Why haven’t you heard of this before?

My guess is that 10 years is too long a period to interest the typical investor, who is far more drawn to what the market will do this month or year. But some have paid attention to the indicator. Ned Davis Research, the quantitative research firm, for one, has been following it; Ned Davis calls its track record “remarkable.” I wrote about this indicator a year ago.

Regardless of the reasons for this indicator’s obscurity, its current message is clear. According to Ned Davis Research, the household equity-allocation percentage stands at 52%, versus a median level since 1952 of about 44%. Historically, allocation percentages as high as today’s were followed by 10-year annualized returns of below 4%.

In fact, as you can see from the chart at the top of this page, the only other times since 1952 in which households’ equity allocation got as high as they are now were followed—at best—by mediocre 10-year market returns: The late 1960s, 2000, and 2007.

A statistic known as the “r-squared” is useful for appreciating this predictor’s impressive track record. It measures the degree to which one data series explains or predicts another. Its highest possible reading is 1.0, while a 0.0 reading would mean the indicator has no explanatory or predictive ability whatsoever.

The table below reports results since 1952, as calculated by Philosophical Economics. In each case, the r-squared measures the correlation between the indicator in question and the stock market’s subsequent 10-year return.

Household equity allocation   Market capitalization to GDP   Q ratio   Shiller P/E (CAPE)   P/E based on 12-month trailing earnings
r-squared between indicator and               
subsequent 10-year               
 stock-market returns   0.91   0.76   0.71   0.66   0.5
To put the household equity allocation’s 0.91 r-squared into even more context, most of the indicators that capture Wall Street’s attention have comparable r-squareds that are so close to zero as to be statistically insignificant.

So it’s definitely bad long-term news that the current household-equity percentage is higher than average.

Note carefully, however, that the equity-allocation indicator tells you nothing about the path the stock market will take in coming years to get to its overall mediocre result in 2026. It could be that the stock market undergoes a powerful bull market over the coming year or two before succumbing to a severe bear market. Or it could be that the market more or less muddles along producing mediocre returns year after year.

Regardless, though, the household equity allocation is telling us that we need to lower our expectations for average equity returns over the next decade

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #31 on: June 22, 2016, 08:26:14 AM »



El-Erian: Cash is more valuable than ever

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: June 21, 2016 7:59 a.m. ET

     5 
‘Investors cannot rely on correlations as a risk mitigator,’ he says
Bloomberg News/Landov
Mohamed El-Erian says the global economy is at a crossroads.
Investors shouldn’t underestimate the role of cash in their portfolios said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Investors.

At a breakfast meeting with reporters on Monday, the former Pacific Investment Management Company chief executive said central bank asset purchases have successfully decoupled asset prices from fundamentals and distorted traditional correlations.

Indeed, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.27%  climbed to record levels in 2014 and the first half of 2015 even as commodity prices, notably energy, plunged.


“Investors cannot rely on correlations as a risk mitigator, making cash a very valuable thing to have,” he said.

“It can give your portfolio resilience during stressful times, optionality—whether you use it for tactical or strategic purposes and flexibility to deploy it when necessary,” he said.

El-Erian also said years of unconventional monetary policy, including asset purchases, and a lack of fiscal stimulus are making developed economies less stable.

“Central banks are finding it harder and harder to repress volatility in financial markets, and any jolts, such as currency devaluation in China or political events, such as Brexit, result in wild swings in the markets,” El-Erian said.

Also read: Mohamed El-Erian: Brexit could solve a fundamental EU problem

Meanwhile, developed economies are at a crucial point where small developments could either tip them into a recession or allow them to continue toward a higher-growth recovery:

“We are at a T-junction and the outcome is wide open, though I will not make a prediction because I simply don’t know,” he said. The primacy of central banks and the notion of a global economy at a crossroads are both themes of El-Erian’s recent book, “The Only Game In Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.”

El-Erian talked of optimistic and pessimistic view of the outcome:

The optimistic view hinges on three positives:

Most economies know what’s needed—massive fiscal spending on infrastructure to stimulate the economy, even though there is a lack of political leadership to implement such policies.
The private sector is cash-rich and will start spending their cash on wages or capital expenditures
Innovation that will disrupt the world of finance and how our economies operate.
The pessimists will see the negative that are equally valid:

Politics are becoming really messy and may hinder the recovery by implementing disastrous policies (Brexit, Trump)
Central banks will follow the Bank of Japan in becoming ineffective or counterproductive
Financial assets have decoupled from fundamentals and heightened volatility will mean they will overshoot on the way up and undershoot on the way down, triggering an economic recession
Read: Mohamed El-Erian says Trump may contribute to Wall Street volatility

Speaking about the Federal Reserve, he disagreed with critics who say the central bank has been inconsistent in its outlook.

“The Fed is data-dependent and data have been all over the place. Data have been moving so quickly and signaling different things that the Fed has no choice but to react to it. And this has a huge implication on financial management.”

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2016, 08:46:10 AM »



Man Who Predicted 2008 Financial Crisis Warns: “We’ve Run Out of Road!”
Posted on June 21, 2016 by The Doc   1 Comment   71 views
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stormPeter Schiff, the man who predicted the Great Recession of 2008 just issued a New Warning:
An Even BIGGER Crisis is on the Horizon…

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2016, 09:11:54 AM »


Man Who Predicted 2008 Financial Crisis Warns: “We’ve Run Out of Road!”
Posted on June 21, 2016 by The Doc   1 Comment   71 views
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stormPeter Schiff, the man who predicted the Great Recession of 2008 just issued a New Warning:
An Even BIGGER Crisis is on the Horizon…

BE  GREEEEEEEEEEEDY  WHILE  OTHERS IN  SHIVERINGGGGGG :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:

- WARRENT  BUFFET
:D :D :D :D

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2016, 09:54:27 AM »
BE  GREEEEEEEEEEEDY  WHILE  OTHERS IN  SHIVERINGGGGGG :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:

- WARRENT  BUFFET
:D :D :D :D
:).......choked sorrow migrated to hadnyai,no seehum ,just song song there!!! :P :P

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2016, 09:52:11 AM »



Nomura Warns "Do Not Underestimate The Global Contagion" From Brexit

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by Tyler Durden
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In a nutshell, Nomura expects the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Their warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008...

To assess the global impact of this surprise result, it is important to look beyond the trade channel. Once the financial, confidence and psychology channels are taken into account our warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of financial market contagion to Asia.

A globally coordinated central bank response to a global financial market meltdown is quite likely, such as liquidity support through FX swap arrangements and possible FX intervention, but with policy credibility at such a low it is unclear how successful these emergency measures would ultimately be when there is extreme market risk aversion.

Do not underestimate the global contagion

At first glance, it would seem that the financial and economic impact of this result should be largely confined to the UK, given that its economic size is quite small at less than 4% of world GDP and world imports in 2015. However, we believe that this is too simplistic of a view and that the impact of the Brexit will be far reaching and long lasting, for two main reasons.

First, we expect non-trivial spillover to the euro area economy and financial markets. While the value of merchandise exports from the rest of the EU to the UK is only 3% of the rest of the EU’s GDP1, the UK’s position as a global financial hub – UK financial sector assets account for more than 8x its GDP – leaves the rest of the EU much more exposed to the UK in terms of financial and investment linkages, in part reflecting the UK’s relatively liberalised domestic market and its strong legal framework and institutions.


For example:

One-third of the UK’s financial and insurance services exports are to the EU
More than half of the UK banking sector’s cross-border lending is directed to the EU
Almost half of the foreign direct investment received by the UK comes from the EU2
In addition, Brexit could further inflame anti-EU sentiment in other EU member states, heightening fears of more countries opting to leave the union. It is largely due to these non-trade-related channels that we expect a reduction in euro area GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points (pp) and a weaker EUR/USD.3 While UK share of global GDP is less than 4%, the rest of EU’s share is 18%, so once second-round effects on Europe are taken into account, the global impact is no longer trivial.


Extreme uncertainty is an anathema to financial markets

This extreme uncertainty in the City of London, one of the world’s largest financial centres, is anathema to global financial markets, especially when the global economy is as fragile as it is and as there are limited monetary and fiscal policy easing buffers available to most of the world’s major economies.

At this early stage, great uncertainty exists over just what the Brexit will ultimately mean for the UK economy. For example, how soon and how successful will the UK be able to negotiate with the EU the terms of its withdrawal, and renegotiate trade relationships with 60 non-EU economies where trade is currently governed by EU relationships? Will there be constitutional havoc in amending legislation from EU law to UK law? Will Scotland push for another referendum on independence? Heighted uncertainty and risk aversion is likely to discourage new investment in the UK and weigh on consumer sentiment. The danger is that all these factors – rising inflation, falling asset prices, high uncertainty and weakening private domestic demand – reinforce each other in a downward spiral, dwarfing any positive impetus from a more competitive exchange rate or monetary and fiscal policy easing.

The psychological impact – a link to the US elections

Moreover, one should not underestimate the psychological impact and how quickly markets could link the outcome to a rising risk of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. As Anatole Kaletsky warned in an article on Project Syndicate (see Brexit’s impact on the world economy, 17 June 2016), the UK referendum is part of a global phenomenon – the rise of nationalist sentiment and populist revolts against established political parties. The demographic profile of Brexit supporters is found to be strikingly similar to that of American Trump supporters. The opinion polls are also strikingly similar: The UK polls showed the Brexit and Bremain camps to be close to neck and neck going into the referendum, as are the US polls on the two main US presidential candidates, Trump and Hilary Clinton. In contrast, investors, judging from recent price action, did not anticipate a Brexit, and option pricing suggests markets are also discounting a Trump victory. The UK betting markets too have downplayed the results of opinion polls: the odds of Brexit were generally about 1-in-3, similar to what US betting markets assign to a Trump victory.

The surprise Brexit result should now increase the credibility of opinion polls – they had indicated a much closer race than the odds published by bookmakers – in gauging how people actually vote. Statistical theory even allows us to quantify how expectations about the US presidential election should shift following the Brexit wins in Britain. To quote Kaletsky, imagine “for the sake of simplicity, that we start by giving equal credibility to opinion polls showing Brexit and Trump with almost 50% support and expert opinions, which gave them only a 25% chance. Now suppose that Brexit wins. A statistical formula called Bayes’ theorem then shows that belief in opinion polls would increase from 50% to 67%, while the credibility of expert opinion would fall from 50% to 33%.” The upshot is that investors are likely to take the results of opinion polls more seriously now and, as such, financial markets could start pricing in a greater risk of a Trump victory in the 8 November election and, possibly, a greater chance of populist insurgencies in the rest of Europe.

The financial tail wagging the real economy dog

In a nutshell, we expect the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Our warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008. For instance, during the European crisis of 2011, when there were significant fears of EU breakup, Asia’s stock and bond markets became much more highly correlated to the Euro Stoxx 50 and the German government bond yield than over 2000-07 (Figures 1 and 2). And as Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the BIS, recently described it (see Global liquidity and procyclicality, 8 June 2016), “the real economy appears to dance to the tune of global financial developments rather than the other way around”, through wealth, confidence, loan collateral and liquidity effects.




Granted, one potential cushion to a global financial market selloff is expectations of a further delay in the next Fed rate hike, but markets have already significantly priced out Fed hikes for this year (following the Brexit outcome, the market is now pricing a mere 6% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2016, down from 58% prior to the EU referendum).

Our US team now believes that the most likely timing of the next Fed rate hike is December (see Policy Watch: Brexit vote will likely delay FOMC rate hike, 24 June 2016). Instead, we believe that the more dominating factor will be renewed concerns over global growth and a likely stronger USD – together they are likely to cause oil prices to continue falling, adding more fuel to the fire of a major risk-off event in emerging markets. A globally coordinated central bank response to a global financial market meltdown is quite likely, such as liquidity support through FX swap arrangements and possible FX intervention, but with policy credibility at such a low it is unclear how successful these emergency measures will ultimately be when there is extreme market risk aversion.

Source: Nomura

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2016, 09:57:21 AM »


Rolling risk clouds for stocks ahead
Evelyn Cheng   | @chengevelyn
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The greatest risk event of the last few months became a reality that surprised markets, raising a flurry of questions that will likely overshadow domestic news in the week ahead.

"This is not a shock that can be solved by central banks. This is more of a political [issue] and one that is more to be solved by politicians," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

Investors are all ears to any statements from world leaders on how to negotiate Britain's formal departure from the European Union, a succession plan as David Cameron steps down as prime minister of the U.K., the potential for other EU members to leave and clues on economic growth.

The Federal Reserve
Jay Mallin | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve
Rest doesn't come this weekend. Spain on Sunday is set to hold elections, and results could add to concerns about the stability of the European Union. The heads of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to participate in a panel Wednesday at the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Portugal.

"Major central banks will remain accommodative and will ease policies more, which at least should support risk assets for now," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy in Europe at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

But with Britain's vote to leave the EU, "we have very long negotiations," he said. "This will magnify the implications for the U.K. economy, and if anything, this will affect broader global risk appetite."

BofAML and several other major investment banks trimmed their U.S. GDP forecasts Friday and lowered the number of rate hike expectations from two this year to one or none. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers have cited a potential Brexit as a reason to delay a rate hike.

"We like the financials, but we recognize, eyes wide open, that there are some headwinds here on the interest rate side," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management.

"It doesn't help sentiment," Nixon said. "It's really hard here to have a really robust rally that doesn't include financials."

Financials led Friday's stock decline with the sector dropping 5.4 percent in its worst day since August 2011. Major banks passed the initial part of the Fed's stress tests this week, but still face the hurdle of next week's qualitative exam results.

The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 plunged more than 3 percent Friday, erasing year-to-date gains. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a low of 1.406 percent, its lowest in nearly four years.

Amid Friday's knee-jerk reaction to Brexit, U.S. durable goods orders showed a worse-than-expected 2.2 percent decline in May. Next week, the advance read on May's trade deficit, the third read on first-quarter GDP and the Fed's preferred gauge on inflation, the PCE deflator, are all due for release. Several PMI reports and ISM manufacturing are also on the calendar.

"I'd say the main focus is how strong the U.S. economy is, especially with [Friday's] drop in durable goods," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

"Investors are looking for clues about the significance of the vote and what it means for economic growth and earnings growth. Whatever helps them figure out the implications will be the focus next week," she said, adding Thursday night's surprise Brexit would continue to have "a lingering effect."

The final results showed a 52 percent lead for leave versus 48 percent remain. Traders had overwhelmingly positioned for a remain vote late Thursday, which saw the British pound sterling hit $1.500 before falling more than 10 percent against the U.S. dollar to $1.3224, its lowest since 1985.

"The reaction was exacerbated, because I think it was done overnight, especially in the FX markets," said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities. "It's pretty much, people are going to wait a bit, take the weekend and see how the futures open up."

The Japanese yen briefly crossed below 100 against the U.S. dollar overnight for the first time since late 2013 and was last slightly weaker, near 102 yen versus the greenback. The euro hit a nearly three-month low of $1.1015 versus the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index traded more than 2 percent higher for its best day in more than seven years.

After the historic vote, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation and plan to leave by October. His successor remains uncertain, while the country's negotiations to depart from the EU is a process that could take two years or more.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Friday its outlook on the U.K. sovereign to "negative" from "stable," citing the vote to leave the EU "will herald a prolonged period of uncertainty for the U.K." Moody's affirmed its AA1 rating.

"I'm not sure everyone's clear about what this actually means," said Alan Rechtschaffen, UBS Wealth Management Americas financial advisor and senior vice president. "We have a global sentiment towards trying things that are not the status quo. … There is a new world happening.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2016, 02:22:26 PM »



“Gasoline Thrown On the Fire”: Today is Just the Beginning…
Posted on June 24, 2016 by The Doc   7 Comments   1,503 views
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Home » SD Podcast » “Gasoline Thrown On the Fire”: Today is Just the Beginning…


Play
Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Market Bloodbath Monday?

burning house

They Won’t Be Able to Stabilize the Markets Until We Go ALOT Lower…

SD Weekly Metals and Markets is Below!


 

Silver Rounds SD Bullion

With the Shocking BREXIT Vote Unleashing CHAOS in the Markets – Gold Surges $100, Pound Sterling Crashes Nearly 11%, DOW Plunges 600 Points, The Doc & Dubin Break Down All the Action, and Discuss What BREXIT Means For Gold & Silver In a Critical Metals & Markets:


DOW Plunges 600 Points Friday, Setting Up For Market Bloodbath Monday? 
Plunge Protection Team is Working OVERTIME– “Epic Tape Painting”
Why A “Big Downdraft” Is Likely Next Week – They Won’t Be Able to Stabilize the Markets Until We Go ALOT Lower!
Gold Surges $100, Skyrockets 22% In Pound Sterling!
Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank Down Nearly 20%, Gold Up 22% In GBP
They’re Gonna Blow Up Next Week!
New Gold Bull Market Technically Confirmed With Weekly Close Over $1,308 – What’s Next For Gold and Silver Prices?
“Pay Really Close Attention to European Banks”

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #38 on: February 24, 2017, 02:20:08 PM »



前欧央行行长警告
下个全球危机恐爆发……
1329点看 2017年2月24日
 
尚格特莱彻。(网络图)

(巴黎24日综合电)前欧洲央行行长尚格特莱彻(Jean-Claude Trichet)警告,债务问题或引发下一个全球危机。


他指出,全球债务对国家生产总值(GDP)的比例已经从2000年的250%,升至2015年的300%,他说:“虽然发达国家累积的债务增速减慢,但发展中国家的债务却加快增长,尤其是在中国。”

面对着庞大的债务,他估计,未来10年或者是15年,全球或将爆发“发达市场危机”,这可能是无可避免的一场危机。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #39 on: March 04, 2017, 07:09:06 AM »



Warren Buffett’s hero says Trump’s growth target would be impossible to achieve
David Reid   | @cnbcdavy
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 Vanguard Founder questioning Trump's business tactics   Vanguard Founder questioning Trump's business tactics 
7 Hours Ago | 00:49
Jack Bogle, a hero of Warren Buffett and a lifetime Republican, has told the BBC that President Donald Trump's plan to grow the U.S. economy by 4 percent a year is probably "not even possible for anybody."

The founder and retired CEO of The Vanguard Group critiqued several strands of Trump's policy mix during a wide-ranging BBC interview this week. Most notably, he said the president's campaign promise for the American economy seemed fanciful.

Jack Bogle
Mark Lennihan | AP
Jack Bogle
"Anybody that wants to make the U.S. economy grow at 4 percent a year in real terms has a big job to do. I don't think it's even possible for anybody," Bogle said.

He also said administration rhetoric over regulation was a concern.

"I think reducing regulations is a reasonable thing to do if you do it the right way, but eliminating regulations is some sort of madness."

And highlighting that he himself is the child of an immigrant, Bogle questioned the trade and border policies emanating from the White House.

"I think increasing trade barriers is the wrong way to go for business," he said.

"And I'm not making a political statement here, the economics of cutting back on immigration is extremely harmful in the long run for our economy."

Bogle was born in 1929, the same year as the Wall Street crash, and continues to invest after 65 years in the business.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak aboard the pre-commissioned USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in Newport News, Virginia, March 2, 2017.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump arrives to speak aboard the pre-commissioned USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in Newport News, Virginia, March 2, 2017.
He is famous for introducing low-cost passive funds and was described by Warren Buffett in a recent letter to shareholders as a hero.

In the BBC interview, Bogle said Buffett was merely recognizing his assertion that Wall Street needed to be fairer to investors.

"Over an investment lifetime, a dollar invested compounded 7 percent over 50 years grows to $30 in the stock market, and it grows to $10 in a mutual fund," he said.

"So it means that an investor who put up 100 percent of the capital, puts up 100 percent of the risk but got 30 percent of the return."

"Wall Street put up none of the capital, none of the risk and got 70 percent of the return," he added.

Bogle said that unfairness was presently being addressed through the growth of index funds.

Meanwhile, Trump was not the only boss in the firing line of the legendary investor. Bogle said remuneration for CEO's stock options could be too generous and it was time to change the measurement of success.

"I think remuneration ought to be not on the price of the stock but on the return on the investment made by the corporation," he concluded

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2017, 11:01:15 AM »



股市大跌会引发金融危机?
美联储官员这么说……
323点看 2017年3月22日
(纽约22日综合电)美股周二全面下挫,影响市场情绪,全球股市震荡,投资者纷纷抛售套利,然而一位美联储决策官员周二说,他认为美国股市大幅下挫,并不会引发广泛的金融危机。

明尼阿波里斯市美联储银行总裁卡西卡里在推特上回答问题时说,他并不担忧股市大跌,真正重要的是,金融体系、经济的基本命脉是否健全。


在美国历史上,发生了几次股市崩盘。有几次,的确发生了金融危机,但也有几次,例如1987年,股市很快反弹,对整体经济并没有造成影响。

卡西卡里补充说,美国经济的通货膨胀较可能低于2%,而非大幅上升。

本月稍早,央行决策委员会投票决议调高美国基准利率,该利率有助决定消费者与企业的借款成本,卡西卡里为唯一投下反对票的官员。

他相信,近来通货膨胀上升,不太可能持续,且经济并未全速成长。他说,调高利率并无助益。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2017, 11:29:21 AM »



2017-03-22 10:49
81%基金经理称美股太贵.17年来首见
美股自总统特朗普上场后一直亢奋,三大指数均先后创新高,但随着昨晚显著回吐,市场终于响起警号。最新有调查更发现,大部份投资者认为美股目前是全球最贵市场,是17年来首见。

(图:法新社)
(美国.纽约22日讯)美股自总统特朗普上场后一直亢奋,三大指数均先后创新高,但随着昨晚显著回吐,市场终于响起警号。最新有调查更发现,大部份投资者认为美股目前是全球最贵市场,是17年来首见。

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美银美林上周进行一项有关美股看法的调查,受访者主要为基金经理,当中有81%受访者认为美股估值被高估,是2000年以来最高,主要因为利率上升、企业盈利下降及各国保护主义将利淡美股。美银指,数据反映美股持续上升的趋势有可能于三月或四月终止。

调查又发现,有44%受访者认为新兴市场估值遭低估,认为欧元区股市估值遭低估的受访者亦有23%。

事实上,调查数据亦与实际情况吻合,皆因美银发现,近期新兴市场资金流入规模最大,而最多资金流出的地区亦是美国,反映投资者的风险偏好开始逆转。(香港明报)
 

文章来源:
星洲网‧2017.03.22

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2017, 09:10:03 AM »



Thursday, 23 March 2017 | MYT 6:48 AM
10 reasons for caution as markets lose 'Trump trade' mojo
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/12/15/00/48/us-stocks.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=5F9C85D1655F861A6FDA382F6D5E879716498B8A
The near-decade of super-easy money, QE worth trillions of dollars, euros, yen and sterling, zero (and even negative) interest rates is over. Yes, there's still a huge amount of stimulus cash washing through the world financial system. But the tide is turning. The Federal Reserve has raised U.S. interest rates twice and wants to raise them further, and the European Central Bank has intimated it is considering lifting one of its key interest rates far sooner than expected. Even if this is a gradual process akin to an oil tanker changing direction, markets are getting unnerved.
The near-decade of super-easy money, QE worth trillions of dollars, euros, yen and sterling, zero (and even negative) interest rates is over. Yes, there's still a huge amount of stimulus cash washing through the world financial system. But the tide is turning. The Federal Reserve has raised U.S. interest rates twice and wants to raise them further, and the European Central Bank has intimated it is considering lifting one of its key interest rates far sooner than expected. Even if this is a gradual process akin to an oil tanker changing direction, markets are getting unnerved.
 
LONDON: Global stock markets this week suffered their biggest shakeout since November's U.S. election amid growing disappointment at President Donald Trump's failure to deliver more details on promised tax cuts, infrastructure spending and financial deregulation.

The trigger appears to have been the new administration's struggle to get its prioritized healthcare reform bill through Congress and what that says about the likely timing of and opposition to the rest of his fiscal stimulus plans.

But the tiring of the so-called "Trumpflation trade", which has lifted world stocks about 10 percent since the election, is not the only factor that has been unnerving markets. Following are 10 others that have contributed to the sudden bout of investor angst this week:

1. INTEREST RATES

The near-decade of super-easy money, QE worth trillions of dollars, euros, yen and sterling, zero (and even negative) interest rates is over. Yes, there's still a huge amount of stimulus cash washing through the world financial system. But the tide is turning. The Federal Reserve has raised U.S. interest rates twice and wants to raise them further, and the European Central Bank has intimated it is considering lifting one of its key interest rates far sooner than expected. Even if this is a gradual process akin to an oil tanker changing direction, markets are getting unnerved.

Stories on ECB preparing to raise deposit rate:

2. YIELD CURVE

While Fed interest rates and short-term U.S. yields may be rising, longer-term yields aren't. This narrowing of the gap between the two, dubbed the "flattening" of the yield curve, suggests investors don't believe growth or inflation will be strong enough to warrant interest rates going much higher. Flatter yield curves often herald the onset of slower growth or even recession.

CHART: http://tmsnrt.rs/2n7ElHz

3. BANKS

A flatter yield curve is bad news for banks, who make much of their money by borrowing cheaply at the short end and lending longer term at higher rates of interest. The steepening curve following Trump's election sparked a surge in financial stocks - U.S. banks jumped 30 percent and European banks 20 percent - which led the broader market rally. But that has fizzled since the start of March. U.S. financials are down 10 percent from that peak, and there may be more selling to come. Investors are heavily long bank stocks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's last fund manager survey. U.S. financials <.BKX> fell 4 percent on Tuesday, the biggest fall since June.

CHART: http://tmsnrt.rs/2ndz5DJ

4. POSITIONING

One eye-opener from the BAML survey was this: stocks are their most overvalued in 17 years. That might not come as too much of a surprise given the extent of the post-U.S. election rally. The Dow took 42 days to make the 1,000-point journey from 19k to 20k, and just 24 days to get up to 21k. As BAML's Michael Hartnett noted, valuation and positioning argues for a "risk rally pause in March/April". Positioning is getting stretched in other assets too: long dollars is far and away the most "crowded trade" in the world, and bond allocations are the lowest in three years, according to the survey.

GRAPHIC: http://tmsnrt.rs/2mUPZ7A

5. CORRELATIONS

In so-called normal times, markets display certain routine behaviors. When the dollar rises the price of commodities like oil often falls, and vice versa. That's because commodities are priced in dollars, so there's often an inverse relationship between the two. But this week, the dollar, oil, copper and other commodities have all fallen in tandem. Oil is down more than 10 percent in the last week, and the dollar is at a 6-week low. The breakdown in this correlation suggests a broader investor shift into "risk off" territory.

6. MARKET MILESTONES

As the market mood turns darker and asset markets head south, key levels become targets. In some cases, they are just big, round numbers that markets zero in on for no other reason than that they are big, round numbers. The dollar index broke below 100.00 this week, Brent crude oil broke below $50 a barrel, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been unable to hold above 2.50 percent. Big levels holding or breaking often signal significant market turning points, especially when positioning is stretched. Tuesday was the first time since October - before the U.S. election - that the S&P 500 and Dow had fallen more than 1 percent. No surprise that the VIX index of market volatility - Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge" - spiked to its highest in over two months.

GRAPHIC: http://tmsnrt.rs/2mta2hk

7. ECONOMIC SURPRISES

While the world economy is ticking along at a steady if unspectacular pace, the momentum may be fading. Over the past month, Citi's economic surprises index of the world's leading economies have been mostly flat-lining or gradually turning lower. The most notable slow-downs have been in the UK and euro zone indexes, while Japan's has plunged into negative territory. This suggests that much of the positive economic impact from the anticipated Trump stimulus is fading. Not a good sign for financial markets.

CHART: http://tmsnrt.rs/2msNf4Z

8. BREXIT

Britain's decision last June to leave the European Union didn't have the dire economic consequences many experts had feared. But that appears to be slowly changing. Just as the Brexit process formally gets underway on March 29, UK growth is slowing, business investment has frozen, inflation is rising sharply and real incomes are being eroded as a result. If that weren't enough, the deep uncertainty surrounding Brexit for business and markets has been compounded by demands for a second Scottish independence referendum.

9. QUARTER END

Calendar dates matter. Particularly the end of each quarter, when investment firms, funds, banks and other market participants tidy up their books for accounting purposes. Only a week away from the end of Q1, a bout of profit-taking may be underway. It has been a pretty lucrative three months too for those who have ridden the wave of rising markets - solid gains in stocks, credit, corporate bonds and emerging markets.

10. VALUATIONS

The S&P forward price to earnings ratio has jumped to above 18 from 16.6 on Election Day, making U.S. equities their most expensive since 2004. At the same time, the index's dividend yield sits just above 2 percent, losing some of its allure against the 10-year Treasury note which may have slipped lately but is still a good bit higher at 2.40 percent. Can earnings pick up against the backdrop of such uncertainty? - Reuters

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/23/10-reasons-for-caution-as-markets-lose-trump-trade-mojo/#TQktks3SZbgX9xcx.99

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #43 on: April 08, 2017, 07:37:51 PM »



副刊地方体育娱乐言论市场情报
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 金融“鳄王”警告 全球正复制二战前悲剧
金融“鳄王”警告
全球正复制二战前悲剧
645点看 2017年4月8日
 
“鳄王”达利奥。(网络图)

(纽约8日综合电)据外媒报道,全球最大对冲基金Bridgewater创办人、回报跑赢索罗斯而被市场赞誉为“鳄王”的达利奥(Ray Dalio)警告,全球最近的经济及政治事件,像是复制上世纪二次大战前的历史!


达利奥警告,全球民粹主义正在升温,与1930年代时像是同出一辙。

他说:“在1930年代,经济状况与现时相似,同样受到贫富悬殊、庞大债务,以及零息政策影响。当时经济已受到之前第一次世界大战而陷于崩溃边缘,加上经济大萧条,使1930年代贫富悬殊扩大,经济困境令民粹主义急剧恶化,政治家更加利用当时仇富风气,令民粹主义更进取及人民更好斗。”

随时改变经济条件

达利奥说:“在那个时间,我们经历了很多民粹主义,很多国家变得更民粹,这显得我们更需要理解这段历史。”

故此达利奥警告,现时欧美的民粹情绪应更值得仔细审视,因为这随时会改变经济条件。

达利奥特别指出,美国总统特朗普及法国极右翼政党领袖勒庞的冒起,正正动摇了欧美民主的基础,使社会上的问题变得更敌对、趋向更具破坏性。

新闻来源:东网

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2017, 07:44:59 PM »



再有两只“黑天鹅”现身
股市楼市难有好景?
1871点看 2017年4月9日
(纽约9日综合电)踏入4月,美国总统特朗普已率先发动军事行动,投资者必须注意有不少迹象显示,经济前景非一片乐观,同时有异象预言熊市或已开始,无论是炒股或买房,都要小心为上。

据《东网》报道,本周电动车龙头特斯拉(Tesla)一度成为美国市值最大车企,惹起市场热话,但原来美国经济“晴雨表”也已预示前景变差,证据就是3月汽车销售数据逊预期。


研究公司Autodata表示,美国3月汽车销量从2016年同期的1670万辆,降至1660万辆,远低于市场预期的1720万辆,恐表明美国汽车业已开始衰退。

为何值得留意?巴克莱首席美国经济学家米高加朋早已表示,美国3月汽车销售数据才是本周最值得关注的数字,因该数字向来是美国消费市道的“晴雨表”,如果3月汽车销售不能维持在1700万辆以上,意味首季经济增长有可能放缓。由于消费占美国GDP达70%,数据举足轻重。

除了美国前景,踏入4月,不少风险事件显示,有2只“黑天鹅”不得不防:

1.法国大选

距离4月23日第1轮法国总统大选仅余约半个月,虽然民调显示,人称“法国特朗普”的极右翼政党领袖勒庞不会赢出5月7日举行的第2轮投票,但有迹象显示,民调未必准确,主因是投票率可能很低。

根据法国媒体《Paris Match》上周的调查显示,由于法国选民普遍已厌倦经济低增长及政治人物屡被揭丑闻,今年或有38%选民选择放弃投票,恐远高于2002年的28%纪录。有经济学家警告,“弃权”是本届大选的主要风险,因投票率愈低,对勒庞愈有利。

2.华府“缺水”

除了法国,现时美国政府债务已达19.8兆美元,接近20兆美元上限。在去年大选后,美国国会启动了临时议案,将政府财政开支授权延长至今年4月28日。换句话说,为防止联邦政府部分“关门”,国会必须在4月29日前通过新的财政开支提案,或再度延长政府财政开支授权至9月30日。

不过,德银认为,在国会共和党内部分裂下,美国政府在4月底“停摆”的机会达40%,警告未来2周最关键。

至于异象,则有以下:

1.南非兰特屡次预言灾难来临?

除了大国,本周也有异象预示金融市场危机或已静悄悄降临,这来自南非兰特。就在上周,南非兰特创下2015年底以来最差表现,兑美元由周一曾创近20个月最强,高见12.31后,即日就“变脸”急挫逾2%,直至本周仍跌,曾急挫6天,前后8天跌幅逾11%,主因是该国总统祖马决定炒掉高民望的财长令政局陷于混乱状态。

除了政局,原来兰特的走势具有重大启示?

根据往绩,原来每当兰特急跌均预示金融市场有灾难。曾有大行发表报告指出,南非兰特的走势与环球金融市场十分相似,2008年、2001年、1998年环球股灾前兰特都出现急跌!最近的例子是2016年1月初,兰特曾创历史新低,当年1月18日兑美元曾见16.87,结果环球股市一直跌至2月中才见底,恰巧今次急跌后,就发生叙利亚事件。

2.金价开局跑赢股市是熊市开端?

除了南非兰特,金价也会对股市带来启示,今年以来更出现罕见异象,就是第1季金价升幅罕有地跑赢美国标指。历史显示,自1970年代初以来,每次熊市周期,金价都会先“静悄悄”转强,并且升幅大于股市。这次又会如何?

专家经常说要投资,就是因持有现金会被通胀蚕食,通胀愈高,购买力就跌得愈快,于是传统观念认为,黄金是对抗通胀的最好工具,但恐怕是“世纪骗局”。

原来自1900年至2011年,合共111年历史显示,黄金对抗通胀的效果和持有现金并无太大区别!

实际数据是,1980年初金价为每安士559.5美元,到2000年底跌至每安士274.45美元,跌幅达51%,但同期美国通胀升了1.24倍;1900年至2011年,黄金经通胀调整的实际年化收益率仅1%,股票则达5.4%。

结果显示,买股票才是对抗通胀风险的最好工具,尤其是科技股和原材料股。

“鳄王”警告:全球正复制二战前悲剧

全球最大对冲基金Bridgewater创办人、回报跑赢索罗斯而被市场赞誉为“鳄王”的达利奥(Ray Dalio)警告,全球最近的经济及政治事件,像是复制上世纪二次大战前的历史!

达利奥警告,全球民粹主义正在升温,与1930年代时像是同出一辙。他说:“在1930年代,经济状况与现时相似,同样受到贫富悬殊、庞大债务,以及零息政策影响。当时经济已受到之前第一次世界大战而陷于崩溃边缘,加上经济大萧条,使1930年代贫富悬殊扩大,经济困境令民粹主义急剧恶化,政治家更加利用当时仇富风气,令民粹主义更进取及人民更好斗。”

新闻来源:东网


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #45 on: April 12, 2017, 02:45:04 PM »



金融鳄王又提出警告
这次他说……
572点看 2017年4月12日
 
“鳄王”达利奥。(网络图)

(纽约12日综合电)据外媒报道,全球最大对冲基金Bridgewater创办人、回报跑赢索罗斯而号称“鳄王”的达利奥(Ray Dalio)再度表示,忧虑全球经济在未来2至3年的前景。


他表示,现时所有紧张局势将会加剧,财富差距及人群之间的压力将会加大,使货币政策对经济的刺激作用效力减弱。

未来2年堪忧

他强调,由于流动性充裕,令资产价格不断受益而上升,但“现时正接近最好的时候”了!他强调,虽然现时没有即时要担心的事情,但若以2至3年来看,情况值得关注。

回顾达利奥上周警告,全球最近的经济及政治事件,像是复制上世纪二次大战前的历史!

他说:“在1930年代,经济状况与现时相似,同样受到贫富悬殊、庞大债务,以及零息政策影响。当时经济已受到之前第一次世界大战而陷于崩溃边缘,加上经济大萧条,使1930年代贫富悬殊扩大,经济困境令民粹主义急剧恶化,政治家更加利用当时仇富风气,令民粹主义更进取及人民更好斗。”

新闻来源:东网


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2017, 02:45:50 PM »


金融鳄王又提出警告
这次他说……
572点看 2017年4月12日
 
“鳄王”达利奥。(网络图)

(纽约12日综合电)据外媒报道,全球最大对冲基金Bridgewater创办人、回报跑赢索罗斯而号称“鳄王”的达利奥(Ray Dalio)再度表示,忧虑全球经济在未来2至3年的前景。


他表示,现时所有紧张局势将会加剧,财富差距及人群之间的压力将会加大,使货币政策对经济的刺激作用效力减弱。

未来2年堪忧

他强调,由于流动性充裕,令资产价格不断受益而上升,但“现时正接近最好的时候”了!他强调,虽然现时没有即时要担心的事情,但若以2至3年来看,情况值得关注。

回顾达利奥上周警告,全球最近的经济及政治事件,像是复制上世纪二次大战前的历史!

他说:“在1930年代,经济状况与现时相似,同样受到贫富悬殊、庞大债务,以及零息政策影响。当时经济已受到之前第一次世界大战而陷于崩溃边缘,加上经济大萧条,使1930年代贫富悬殊扩大,经济困境令民粹主义急剧恶化,政治家更加利用当时仇富风气,令民粹主义更进取及人民更好斗。”

新闻来源:东网



buy penny, cos it wont affect!

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2017, 06:48:56 PM »



WORLDCORPORATE
Five charts show fear is rearing its head in global markets
Bloomberg
/
Bloomberg

April 13, 2017 18:16 pm MYT
-A+A
(April 13): The calm in stocks worldwide is giving way to concern, with Credit Suisse Group AG the latest to raise a red flag for downside risks to markets as the list of economic and political obstacles grows.

The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer, which measures the cost of buying protection against declines in the S&P 500 Index, neared an all-time high this week. The higher the reading, the more expensive it is to buy protection relative to upside calls, according to Mandy Xu, an equity derivatives strategist at Credit Suisse.

“While put demand has certainly increased over the past week, the biggest mover actually comes from the call-side,” Xu said in a report dated Wednesday. “Falling call skew indicates investors see less potential for market upside going forward, perhaps in recognition of the increased macro and political headwinds.”

Credit Suisse’s gauge jumped 46 percent this month through Tuesday, when it reached 45.74. That’s about a third of an index point away from its June 2016 peak ahead of the Brexit vote. The broader CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is up almost 30 percent this month.

There’s no shortage of potential concerns. Tensions over North Korea’s nuclear program have intensified days after the U.S. fired missiles at a Syrian airfield. There’s uncertainty over the outcome of the French election, and in Britain doubts are emerging on whether the economy can withstand the political shocks the Brexit negotiations will bring.

Other signs of investor nervousness include:

The rally in global equities has stalled in recent weeks amid growing skepticism about Donald Trump’s ability to carry out promised infrastructure spending and tax reforms after he failed to push through a repeal and replace large parts of the Affordable Care Act. The S&P 500 has lost 2.1 percent since reaching a record on March 1, slipping below its 50-day moving average for the first time since the November U.S. election.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury is starting to behave as it did in the run-up to the Brexit vote, as yields fall while volatility climbs in one-month options, according to the Merrill Lynch Move Index.

It’s the same story in other major markets. Japanese yields are back near zero after a brief rally through the first quarter of the year, while the gap between German bunds and peers is close to a multi-year low.

Safe-haven trade stand-bys such as gold and the yen are back in vogue. The yellow metal is closing in on US$1,300-an-ounce mark for the first time since before Trump’s victory. A four-day winning streak helped it rise above the 200-day moving average this week. The yen also strengthened below 110 per US dollar for the first time since November. The dollar extended a slump after Trump told the Wall Street Journal it was “getting too strong” and backed down from labelling China a currency manipulator.

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #48 on: April 27, 2017, 06:41:02 AM »



言论市场情报
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 美股牛市快告终? 那指大涨竟只靠这5档
美股牛市快告终?
那指大涨竟只靠这5档
742点看 2017年4月26日
 
那斯达克指数今年来涨幅有40%由苹果、面子书、亚马逊、微软和Alphabet贡献。(路透社)

(纽约26日综合电)美国股市那斯达克指数周二收在6000点以上,是史上首见。纳斯达克指数今年来已涨近12%,但这波涨势只由5档股票驱动,这可能是涨势即将告终的迹象。


数据显示,那斯达克指数今年来涨幅有40%由苹果、面子书(facebook)、亚马逊(amazon.com)、微软和Google母公司Alphabet贡献。

股市上涨仅由几档股票驱动通常被解读成投资人缺乏信心的迹象,涨势可能已进入最终阶段。

避险基金大佬艾恩豪尔(David Einhorn)警告,随着美国改革税制政策将推升企业获利的可能性下降,美股价位已偏离基本面,有泡沫化的风险。

他说:“股市这波多头显示传统价位指标不再适用于某些股票。随着税制改革的展望转趋黯淡,市场或许已重拾对不赚钱公司的热情,这些业者没有缴税的风险。”

新闻来源:苹果日报


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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2017, 10:27:43 AM »




ECONOMY
ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
Greenspan: Bond bubble about to break because of 'abnormally low' interest rates
Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan said "abnormally low" interest rates will break a bubble in the bond markets.
Greenspan is famous for warning markets about "irrational exuberance" and the consequences it can bring.
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
13 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
 Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman.   Alan Greenspan: Interest rates on government bonds have never been lower 
14 Hours Ago | 01:44
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices.

In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.

"The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there's only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid," Greenspan said on "Squawk Box."

That low interest rate environment has been the product of current monetary policy at the institution he helmed from 1987-2006. The Fed took its benchmark rate to near zero during the financial crisis and kept it there for seven years after.

Since December 2015, the Fed has approved four rate hikes, but government bond yields remained mired near record lows.

Greenspan did not criticize the policies of the current Fed. But he warned that the low rate environment can't last forever and will have severe consequences once it ends.

"I have no time frame on the forecast," he said. "I have a chart which goes back to the 1800s and I can tell you that this particular period sticks out. But you have no way of knowing in advance when it will actually trigger."

One point he did make about timing is it likely will be quick and take the market by surprise.

"It looks stronger just before it isn't stronger," he said. Anyone who thinks they can forecast when the bubble will break is "in for a disastrous" experience."

In addition to his general work at the Fed, which also featured an extended period of low rates though nowhere near their current position, Greenspan is widely known for the "irrational exuberance" speech he gave at the American Enterprise Institute in 1996. The speech warned about asset prices and said it is difficult to tell when a bubble is about to burst.

Those remarks foreshadowed the popping of the dot-com bubble, and the phrase has found a permanent place in the Wall Street lexicon.

"You can never be quite sure when irrational exuberance arises," he told CNBC. "I was doing it as part of a much broader speech and talking about the analysis of the markets and the like, and I wasn't trying to focus short term. But the press loved that term."

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Re: CAUTION !!
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2017, 10:27:43 AM »