Author Topic: DEBT  (Read 2689 times)

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
DEBT
« on: June 12, 2016, 05:43:40 AM »



龙门阵  2016年06月08日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
大马国债万万岁

AddThis Sharing Buttons22
財政部指出,国债在2015年占国內生產总值(GDP)的54.4%,即6305亿令吉,其中有97%是国內债务,外债仅占3%。

一直以来,我国宣称確保国债不超过国內生產总值55%,目前似乎仍维持承诺。可是这债务数据真的可靠吗?

如果债务规模和经济规模同步扩大,那就算6305亿令吉变成63050亿令吉,占国內生產总值的比例依然是54.4%。但是按照比例计算,大马国债占国內生產总值54.4%的说法,就可疑了!

2009-2015年,国债占国內生產总值比例在52%-55%间起伏,但同时期的財政赤字却佔国內生產总值3.5%-6.7%之间。经国內生產总值扩张因素的调整,大马真实国债绝对超过70%,而不是官方说的54.4%。


1MDB增加75亿国债

大马债务规模不超过54.4%的原因,其实就是通过表外债务转移到其他和政府相关的机构中,达到美化效果。財政部秘书长丹斯里依尔万就有说到债务规模维持的原因,就是「因为政府持续在进行財务重整计划,以及將一部分有关公务员房屋贷款计划的欠债转移至公务员房屋贷款局(LPPSA)。」

还有一些债务是对政府关联公司的担保,这些都不纳入国家债务,但实际上的確是一种隱形债务。其中一个担保性债务就是目前「享誉」国际的一马发展公司(1MDB),我国政府是1MDB的债务担保人。虽然不是全额担保,但牛津经济研究院认为1MDB的担保债务將让我国国债增加75亿令吉,即国內生產总值的2.5%。若1MDB无法偿还债务,在不包含利息的前提下,政府就必须为它偿还203亿1000万令吉。说穿了,我国不超过国內生產总值的54.4%国债,只是会计工程,实际债务已经超出国际认同的60%的警戒水平了。

另外,还有一种误导的说法,就是认为外债仅佔3%,可以使得免于匯率波动的情绪,让国债安全性更稳固。的確,內债佔比例高的国家一般承受债务的极限能力比较强。但也就是说,一旦出现国债危机,这个国家受到的损害会更大,因为损失的都是自己国民。

大马国债规模之所以不能降下来,关键问题在于我国政府贪腐行为过于严重,任何减债的行为都会造成伤害到某一山头的利益並遭到眾矢之的。我国也缺乏天下为公,无畏得罪人,而敢于改革的的政治巨人。所以我国国债除非是出现恶性通胀才可能赖掉外,否则永远不可能减少

Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum

DEBT
« on: June 12, 2016, 05:43:40 AM »

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 06:20:55 PM »



Singapore has highest debt-to-GDP ratio in Asia, says HSBC
By Jude Chan / theedgemarkets.com   | June 14, 2016 : 5:04 PM MYT   
Printer-friendly versionSend by emailPDF version
Translated by Google Translator:
Select Language​▼
SINGAPORE (June 14): HSBC Global Research on Tuesday said Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong have the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the region, even though leverage fell in all three countries in 2015.

“Across Asia, credit has expanded at a brisk pace in recent years,” say HSBC economists Frederic Neumann and Joseph Incalcaterra in a report.

“Debt levels tell us only so much. What’s especially worrying is that GDP growth in Asia continues to be highly credit dependent,” they add.

Together with fellow regional financial centre Hong Kong, Singapore’s high debt ratio is mainly due to cross-border lending. Japan’s leverage is also high, although this is mostly government debt, with private sector borrowing very low by advanced economy standards, HSBC says.

Vietnam, China, and Australia saw the largest increases in overall leverage in 2015, rising more than 10% year-on-year in each country. On the other hand, leverage fell in Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

HSBC attributes the drop in leverage in Hong Kong and Singapore were mainly due to a reduction in cross-border lending.

Meanwhile, household debt-to-GDP in Singapore fell by one percentage point in 2015.

HSBC says this reflects the tightening of macro-prudential measures over the past few years, which have slowed private consumption, but show how policy can help bring about a deleveraging in the household sector.

“The worry is that growth across much of Asia continues to be highly credit dependent,” HSBC warns. “That can’t go on forever: the higher debt-to-GDP ratios climb, the more likely a sudden, and painful, correction becomes.”

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2016, 05:48:27 AM »



2016-06-14 17:01
大马债台高筑或面对调整痛苦
亚洲国家继续透过发债融资来支撑经济成长,大马2015年的负债对国内生产总值(GDP)比例高达250%,在亚洲15个经济体中排名第六位,汇丰控股(HSBC)警告,过度债台高筑,将可能使大马日後面对痛苦的调整。
(吉隆坡14日讯)亚洲国家继续透过发债融资来支撑经济成长,大马2015年的负债对国内生产总值(GDP)比例高达250%,在亚洲15个经济体中排名第六位,汇丰控股(HSBC)警告,过度债台高筑,将可能使大马日後面对痛苦的调整。

广告

汇丰银行在最新报告中指出,亚洲的国内生产总值成长继续高度仰赖信贷来推动,这更令人担心。在2015年,大部份经济体的整体杠杆比再度攀升,增幅最大的是越南丶中国(尽管政府发债对GDP的比例走跌)丶澳洲丶韩国丶大马丶斯里兰卡丶印尼和纽西兰。

汇丰指出,“大部份亚洲的成长继续高度依赖信贷,但不可能永远如此。债务对GDP比例攀升更高,将更可能会突然出现痛苦的调整。”

大马债务对GDP比增长逾60%

根据汇丰研究分析,大马2015年的家债丶政府债丶企业债和银行提供给企业的贷款,占GDP的比例分别为89.1%丶57.4%丶49.5%和54.0%。

自2008年至2015年,大马的债务对GDP比例增长逾60%,增幅居亚洲第四位,排在中国丶香港和新加坡之後。

广告

家债亚太第三高

大马家债占GDP比例从2008年的不到60%,扬升至2015年的89.1%,目前大马家债居亚洲第三位,仅低於澳洲和纽西兰。

汇丰表示,香港和新加坡作为区域金融中心,负债比因此明显偏高,部份反映跨境借贷活动。日本的杠杆比也极高,但大部份为政府负债,私人领域的借贷以先进国标准而言属於非常低水平。

至於菲律宾丶斯里兰卡和印度的债务则最低。印尼和菲律宾的总负债仍低於GDP的100%比例,斯里兰卡的政府债也大幅偏低。这3个国家的杠杆比相对较低,大部份的债务来自公共领域。

而负债比处於中间位置的国家之中,虽然中国向来被视为高度杠杆比的国家,但韩国丶澳洲和大马排在其前头,以及家债水平更高。台湾丶纽西兰和泰国的情况也是呈现高家债的情况,尽管它们的整体负债水平偏低。



亚洲靠发债推经济

在中国,占大部份的“银行贷款给企业”是借贷给国有企业(SOEs),若加上“政府债”,意味着许多借贷是提供给整体公共领域(可假设其系统风险低於大部份私人信贷),越南的情况也同样如此,不过越南的数据有限,该国的“银行贷款给企业”也包含了家债。

至於印度的总负债偏低,大部份是来自政府发债。

汇丰指出,菲律宾丶泰国和印度,去年的负债对GDP比例低於5%。

同时,日本丶台湾丶香港和新加坡的杠杆比实际上为走跌,反映了香港和新加坡的跨境借贷活动消退。

汇丰表示,任何经济体的负债水平自然是每年波动不定,因此应更关注近年来的负债趋势。自2008年起形成的亚洲信贷周期,目前已达如火如荼局面,协助亚洲经济在缺乏来自西方的出口需求下仍能继续成长。大部份亚洲国家的贸易仍低速前进,生产力收益也放缓,只能继续依然建立信贷来创造高成长。

中国负债比最高

从2008年至2015年的各国负债对GDP比例显示,首先,毫无意外地,中国遥遥领先,接下来为香港和新加坡。

其次,大马的杠杆比跃升,甚至超越日本(债务以公债为主)。第三,泰国丶韩国丶越南和澳洲的负债也快速增长。

第四,部份经济体的负债对GDP比例低於20%,这包括台湾丶纽西兰丶印尼丶菲律宾丶斯里兰卡和印度。

澳马泰家债跃升

家债方面,值得关注本区域的消费者贷款,尤其是这对产业市场极之重要。从2008年至2015年的亚洲家债水平显示,澳洲丶大马和泰国的家债跃升。韩国丶新加坡和香港家债规模较小,但也显着增长。

同时,中国家债比也倍增,保持在相对低水平,尤其是考量在中国的房地产涨潮。

纽西兰丶台湾丶日本丶印度和斯里兰卡的消费者负债成长则偏低。新加坡的家债对GDP比例实际上在2015年是下跌了1%,这反映了该国近年的打债措施奏效。这些打债措施令私人消费放缓,但却成功降低了家庭领域的负债水平。

汇丰指出,尽管金融市场波动不断,但债务依然不断增长。“但并非每个亚洲国家都负债高企,如果你担心债务对区域成长前景的影响,印尼丶印度和菲律宾可能是良好的藏身之所。”

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经‧报导:李勇坚‧2016.06.14

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2016, 02:57:53 PM »



 296 11 2 311
Syed Mokhtar’s massive debts worry investors, says report
FMT Reporters | June 15, 2016
Tycoon's RM34 billion in liabilities has made him one of the country's biggest holders of corporate debt.
syed-mokhtar-1

PETALING JAYA: Local tycoon Syed Mokhtar AlBukhary’s RM34 billion in liabilities has made him one of the country’s biggest holders of corporate debt.
The debts have bankers and investors worried over the potential stresses that big conglomerates, such as that of Syed Mokhtar’s, which controls a varied range of businesses from power plants, to transportation and infrastructure development, could have on the banking system, a report in Singapore’s The Straits Times said today.
Syed Mokhtar’s business interests include DRB-Hicom’s Proton Holdings Bhd, the latter which secured a RM1.5 billion soft loan from the government in April this year. The government agreed to inject the funds by subscribing to new preference shares in the local carmaker.
“Should Proton fail to repay the soft loan, the government will be able to convert the shares and wrest control of Proton.
“The carmaker has bled more than RM2.5 billion since it was taken over by DRB-Hicom four years ago, due to slumping sales, weak cash flows and the high inventory levels of unsold cars,” said the report.

The newspaper also spoke to Jason Chong, chief investment officer at Manulife Asset Management Services in KL, who said that from a market standpoint, there was no reason for a private company to be bailed out by the government.
Senior executives in Syed Mokhtar’s firms however, downplayed debt concerns surrounding the group.
One officer from DRB-Hicom anonymously told the daily that the “absolute numbers do look huge” but in reality, they were manageable.
“Many of our businesses require huge capital outlays and our infrastructure projects are largely project-finance debts that are ring-fenced by cash flows,” he said.
A senior officer of a state-controlled commercial bank also said Syed Mokhtar was in a “far better situation” than a decade ago, and that they were comfortable as lenders to the tycoon’s group.
Concerns however do remain over Syed Mokhtar’s debt burden, said the report, as he was seen as a product of the corporate patronage system that featured the intertwining of the business of politics, where politically well-connected businessmen were favoured in the awarding of lucrative contracts and concessions, it added.
In an economic model packed with “failures” and public bailouts to protect the banking system, such as the takeovers of the Malaysia Airlines and Port Klang Free Zone (PKFZ), “there are fears that Syed Mokhtar’s group could face a similar fate should the Malaysian economy slip into a major recession.”
Syed Mokhtar, who is listed as one of Malaysia’s top 10 richest people, has varied business interests, including strategic ports under MMC Corp, independent power plants under Malakoff Berhad, as well as rice and sugar processing and plantations, just to name a few

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2016, 05:55:09 AM »



龙门阵  2016年06月16日 | 作者:杨善勇 | 专栏:仅供参考
国债靠向7千亿!

AddThis Sharing Buttons2
一年之前,財政部透露,截至2015年3月,这个国家的债务,里里外外,上上下下,共有5968亿令吉,或占国內生產总值51%。灯下读来,人人嚇倒,唯有当家的领导处变不惊!

一年之后,国债飆高,疾速增加三百余亿,財政部秘书长莫哈末伊尔万达披露,累积6305亿,已是国內生產总值的54.5%。据此计算,过去12个月,每月举债至少25亿!

这是怎样一笔债务呢?《东方日报》的报道,附录了对比的计算:均分国內3000万人口,每个人头因此承担两万有余的国债。如果用以造建成本65亿的双峰塔,则可再建96栋,或者140座,每座价约45亿的檳城第二大桥!

回顾1984年,蔡维衍博士演讲〈我国经济政策新策例及华裔经济难题〉,所透露的577亿国债,国人自可体会国家的债务,歷经短短的32年,一共增长了11倍之多!


儘管这样,財政部始终认为一切尚在控制之中。是耶,非耶,显然国外的研究不以为然,一再警告,政府为一马发展公司(1MDB)债务担保之风险超乎想像:要是公司无力偿还债务,不计利息,政府需吸收另一笔203亿1000万令吉的新债!

这样的统计,每一处都是一个感叹號。国库一年收得的消费税,也还不足应对一马。何况,行政体系之下,年度所需,仅是公僕的薪金一项,已经高达700余亿了!

国力如此,国家还是继续发放一马援助金(BR1M)。过去六年,国家財政为此一共烧掉了191亿。附加供应法案,晚近五年,纳税人需要额外支出了接近500亿的银两!

是的,这个年月,一千万也不算什么了;逞论令吉的百万富翁,不过换得新加坡33万。诸如118层楼高的独立世代大厦,尚待融资的大工程,自然也需n个亿万的预算。再过一年,恐怕就要跨越7000亿,衝向8000亿!

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2016, 06:27:32 PM »



龙门阵  2016年07月20日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
国行降息犹如尿中毒

AddThis Sharing Buttons
大马国家银行在市场没有预期的情况下,于13日宣佈下调隔夜货幣政策利率(OPR),將利率从3.25%下调3.00%。这次降息措施,其实也意味二年前国家银行尝试升息的努力宣告失败。

自2008年美国爆发金融危机后,世界各国都进入大降息潮,虽然偶有一些国家唯恐超低利率会引发经济泡沫而尝试升息。但结果不是因为经济困顿而被迫重回降息旧路,就是升了一次息后,下一次升息时间遥远无期,显然实体经济仍低迷,央行对未来还是很不確定且有忧虑。

降息的目的,说白了就是鼓励民间多贷款,但是大马家庭债务高达国內生產总值(GDP)89%的今天,又能提高多少债务额呢?国家银行一直以来不是关注家庭债务规模过大的危险吗?这次降息又希望民间可以多借贷,这不是背道而驰,自相矛盾吗?

实际上,这就是法幣体系的问题。法幣体系不能够自我调节经济,让经济良好循环运作,它只能要么选择现在以通缩自我终结,要么选择製造更多的信贷继续推高通胀,得过且过,过得一日算一日,不管以后洪水滔天。不过任何理性的人都知道,不平衡的事物不能永远持续下去,终有一天必须纠正回来。时间拖的越久,纠正发生时破坏性也就更大。


难以推动信贷扩张

全球法幣体系都选择不断降低利率来製造通胀,避免通缩的调整,也不尝试修改法幣体系的缺陷。所以30多年来,全球货幣利率都呈现一浪比一浪低的下跌趋势。到了现在,大马利率已经是歷史最低。欧、美、日则落入实际负利率的窘境。

当前大马利率已经低到极限,当事物发展到某极端时,效应就会递减,所以国家银行实行再低的利率也难以推动民间信贷的扩张。就算降低利率能够成功推高市场资金流动性,让银行放宽信贷条件,推高房贷、车贷、个人贷款、企业贷款以及其他各类贷款的增加,增加大马名目经济成长。但是这不过是让大马无法摆脱债务泥沼,经济失衡更加严重,而这失衡迟早要清算的,所以降息反而给未来大马经济创造更大的问题。

国家经济不能良好调节,未来將引发严重经济和政治危机,这就如人体五臟六腑都具有各自的功能来调节身体机能,使身体可以长期循环运作,假如其中一个失去了功能,將造成身体不能良好循环运作来平衡调节。例如肾衰歇,会造成尿毒素快速在体能累积、电解质不平衡、血液偏酸、水分累积、血压飆高、噁心呕吐,进而尿中毒而威胁性命。

同样道理,国家经济运作也需要维持在可以循环平衡调节的状態下,才能维持稳定。理解这点,就明白国家银行的降息只是饮鴆止渴,持续的降息推高通胀,增加信贷,让货幣购买力贬值,会给未来製造更大问题。与其降息,还不如改变法幣体系的规则,施行一个可以根据市场自我循环调节的货幣体系,才是长治久安之道

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2016, 10:01:23 PM »



龙门阵  2016年07月22日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
中了4666次的积宝

AddThis Sharing Buttons
一马公司(1MDB)课题又再次掀起我国政经波浪,美国司法部对一马公司展开长达一年的透彻调查后,终于公佈相关诉状,抖露更多內情。根据美国司法部诉状宣称,1MDB发行债券的资金分別有5亿7700万美元和7亿9035万4855美元,转入一家在英属维京群岛的公司--阿尔巴BVI公司账户中而遭到私吞。

但是这个阿尔巴BVI不是阿布扎比主权基金国际石油投资公司(IPIC)的子公司,IPIC的子公司阿尔巴BVI,全名叫做「阿尔巴投资PJS公司」,1MDB的资金被转入的阿尔巴BVI全名是「阿尔巴投资PJS有限公司」,这个「欺骗」1MDB资金的山寨货的名字比正牌阿尔巴BVI多了「有限」两个字。不过奇怪的是,为何1MDB管理层会有这山寨货的户口號码?

另外美国司法部还说,美国投资银行高盛集团协助一马公司发行65亿美元债券,但其中40%或26亿2700万美元的资金遭私吞,被中饱私囊。

原来是26亿美元

原来真的是26亿,不多不少。不过是从令吉换成美元而已。不过这只是一部分,根据美国司法部的说法,涉及金额其实高达35亿美元。若以匯率乘四倍计算,大概约140亿令吉。

鉴于案情涉及广泛,且金额庞大。美国司法部长林奇(Loretta Lynch)宣佈启动一项司法程序,入稟法院,欲充公涉及一马公司的逾10亿美元资產。

诉状宣称,这笔钱原应提升大马经济、惠及大马人,但却透过美国金融体系的「快白洗衣粉」大洗特洗,通过偽造文件以及一系列复杂交易与空壳公司洗黑钱以蓄意掩盖资金来源,造成一马公司资金被窃取而让数名官员与其伙伴自肥。这笔受窃取的金钱被挪为私用,如用在美国购买豪宅,支付拉斯维加斯赌场的赌博费用,购买超过7亿令吉的艺术品,还有购买私人飞机,投资纽约房地產计划和好莱坞电影。

对于普罗百姓,被窃取的140亿令吉是一个超出我们想像的数字,实际意义到底是多少呢?我就用普罗百姓生活中可以接触的数目来量化,使各位能更清楚一点。

蕞薾小国再创奇蹟

读书时代,我们或许有很多愿望。例如希望成为医生、科学家、律师、飞机师、画家、工程师等等。但是入了社会工作几年,会发现最实际的愿望是中积宝。一般上中一次积宝约有300万令吉,140亿令吉等于中了4666次的积宝。

以一间70万令吉的双层排屋计算,140亿令吉可以购买2万间;又以大马人民平均3000令吉月薪计算,140亿令吉需要工作38.8万年;吃一碗云吞麵6令吉,140亿令吉可以吃23.3亿碗,一日两餐,可以吃319万年。现在,我终于明白为何很多人幼年时,在一手拿著玩具,一手拿著糖果的时候,愿望是要做总统了!

以马来西亚这蕞薾小国,竟然可以「平步青云」,创造一次比一次更大的丑闻,从土著金融到巴生自由贸易港,又到一马公司的140亿令吉,证明在大马这个「Boleh Land」是能创造別人不能创造的奇蹟

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2016, 08:37:10 AM »


经济压抑待脱困/杨名万
40点看 2016年7月30日

经局把脉●杨名万
著名时事及财经评论员
全球经贸不定,中国经济放缓,美国利率要升不升,国内一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)事件一烧再烧,从国内延烧到老远美国,国内政经局势很压抑,脱困大不易。

在这压抑当儿,大马经济研究院(MIER)捎来“解闷消息”,商情指数从去年次季起低沉了整4个季度后,今年次季竟然显著回弹,一举上升13.6点,达到106.4点,在所谓荣枯水平百点之上,意味恢复增长,同时也是自2014年第二季以来的最高点。


根据大马经济研究院解读,这意味制造业活动开始从过去低潮中回弹,由于指数回升至百点以上,枯木回春,是积极发展,反映制造业可能恢复活跃。

本栏则认为,这只是‘解闷消息’,经济大局依然没有脱困;这不是大马经济研究院商情指数第一次回到100点以上,去年首季就曾经回到101点,结果只在一季间昙花一现,去年次季就跌回至95.4,而且连续四季在百点以下的负面状态。


仅三分一厂商表现好

尽管在所调查的厂商中,33%表明销售表现良好,比之前一季的22%强,但是实际表现依然差强人意,只三分之一厂商的销售表现好,还不到一半。

国内订单按年上升3.4点,海外订单按年则升8.5点,产出按年也只微升1.3点,微不足道。

产能应用率从之前一季76.6%上升至77.5%,这虽然是积极发展,却离理想产能应用率还很远,两年前,2014年第二季产能应用率是在80%以上,即使是近期最坏的去年次季,产能应用率也在75%以上,这77.5%离这最坏时期不到3个百分比,好不到哪里去。

根据大马经济研究的调查结果,只有约23%厂商产能应用率达到接近顶点,这只比上一季22%稍微增加一个百分比,作用不大,其余大部分都在平均线77%以下,这比去年同时期并没有多大改变。

至于消费信心指数虽然连续第二季上升,按年升6.8点,但是最终也只达78.5点,这比之前两季好,因为去年末季的65点左右是谷底,今年首季刚成功回弹至70点以上水平,次季连80点都没有达到,更别说要回到正轨的百点以上。

大马经济研究院消费信心指数已经低沉约两年,自2014年第三季起就跌破百点,并已经连续8个季度处于百点以下水平,一直到去年末季才到谷底,升温速度除了胥视国内外经济环境外,政府政策也非常重要。

僵硬政策不利经济

国家大选每四五年就来一次,每次来之前,政府总要营造良好经济氛围,每次几乎都通过刺激内需达致。

这宽松政策令国人债台高筑,在担心家债过高对经济不利,就迅速来个紧缩政策,这一紧缩,消费信心和工商界马上受挫。

此外,政府在推行消费税前规定,所有商家在消费税实施后15个月内,必须在原有净利润基础下定价,不能调高利润,多一分钱都会被定罪。

这规定原本应在6月杪结束,不过,上个月国内贸易、合作社及消费部长拿督斯里韩沙再努丁却宣布延长而不设期限。

影响自由市场操作

这看起来是保护消费者,其实是影响自由市场操作,最终对消费人更不利,而且僵硬式延长政策,会压抑经济,对未来发展非常不利。

房屋和汽车销售也一样,政府需要国人刺激内需,加强经济时,就放宽信贷,在家债总额因此接近国内生产总值(已达89.9%)时,就马上紧缩放贷,令经济受到严重压抑。

政府当然有责任调节物价与贷款,确保民生和国家经济在健全情况中增长,但是过度干预和压抑,有违自由市场经济原理,对于经济长期发展不利,政府高官务要审时度势,在吉日良时,让压抑的经济能早日脱困。


 点赞 0赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp
相关课题:1MDB商情指数
上则新闻
亚马逊次季净利
翻8.31倍
下则新闻
扩大预付卡服务业务
盟汇放眼明年转盈


Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2016, 07:54:40 AM »



名家  2016年08月23日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
静悄悄的金融危机

就表面而言,2008年席捲欧美的金融危机似乎结束了!但就里子看,金融危机只是被各国政府的信用和央行的量化宽鬆暂时掩盖住。和1980-1982年拉丁美洲主权危机引发的金融危机不同的除规模大小有別外,当年欧美国內总体债务相对並不高,所以银行体系可以通过不断降低利率来刺激信贷扩张,使得本来的呆账相对缩小。可如今欧美债务规模是歷史之最,其中13万亿美元是负利率,而且贫富悬殊达歷史高点,这使得它们没有足够的空间来解决问题,只能通过量化宽鬆製造新泡沫来掩盖问题而已。

观察银行股票价格

瞭解欧美银行体系结构性的人,早就在2008金融危机后,认为真正的復甦不会到来,事实也的確如此。就算表面看起来比较好的美国,其实都只是上层人士的復甦,实际失业率比统计数据高的多。

因为没从根本上解决问题,故金融危机会出现第二波是无需质疑的。只是在欧美央行的不断量化宽鬆下,才使得危机到来一再递延。因为欧美央行的宽鬆政策导致,这次金融危机是会以一种静悄悄,並且过程缓慢的方式到来。要判断这场静悄悄、过程缓慢的金融危机,最直接简单的方法就是观察这些银行股票的价格表现。


今年年初以来,全球20家大型银行总市值损失了1∕4,蒸发市值总计约4650亿美元。其中年营收达370亿欧元的德银,如今市值只剩170亿欧元,竟和年营收仅5900万美元的美国快照简讯应用程式开发商Snapchat差不多。

意大利最大银行联合信贷银行(Uni Credit)市值也只剩120亿欧元,坏帐却高达510亿欧元,今年跌幅超过60%。根据《华尔街日报》的估算,意大利银行业拥有不良贷款高达3600亿欧元,坏账率高达17%,比2009年金融危机时的美国银行业5%的坏账率还高。其坏账总额佔据整个欧洲银行业的约50%。

如果观察股价与账面价值比,更能看出欧美银行的脆弱。德银的股价则相当于账面价值的26%;联合信贷银行大约是其账面价值的21%。整体欧洲银行股价只有账面价值的60%;另外全球20家大型银行中,仅有富国银行(Wells Fargo)一家目前的股价仍高于账面价值,而摩根大通的股价也只是接近账面价值。其余美国大银行,股价几乎都低于账面价值。

银行股票大多都会高于账面价值,低过则表明投资者对于银行资本状况和未来的盈利能力有所怀疑。如果股价只有账面价值的一半,那几乎等于视银行未来会破產了。大部分银行股价低于账面价值,那是金融危机才会出现的事情。可现在表面上金融危机虽然没有到来,里子却显示金融危机以一种静悄悄,缓慢的方式到来!这种奇特现象,其实是欧美中央银行量化宽鬆,將大量真相掩盖扭曲所造成的。

掩盖及扭曲真相

这反映欧美银行业没有从2008年金融危机后真正復甦,它们一直以来是靠政府信用和央行的货幣政策吊命而已,实际问题暗潮汹涌。面对金融体系的问题,欧盟中较强的国家,如德国的民眾不希望自己纳税资金用于给其他国家沉重债务买单,希望尽早收紧货幣政策;但是欧元区经济低迷的国家却渴望欧盟给予更大的资金援助,所以在政策上一直存在著严重分歧。

意大利政府希望欧盟同意向意大利银行业提供救助资金。不过,许多欧盟成员国並不同意这么做。因为根据欧盟新规,在纳税人救助之前,应该先由银行的股东和债权人进行救助。所以欧盟的政策说白了,就是要陷困的银行先自行债务重组,以免落得政府出钱替银行家紓困的口实。

虽然意图良好,但是我不认为欧盟真能做到,尤其是受银行集团控制的欧洲央行,未必会听政治人物的笛。希腊这么小欧盟尚且捨不下,更何况是经济规模更大的意大利呢?

只要通过恐嚇,大事宣称若不对意大利银行业提供援助,就会爆发类似2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭的事件,意大利的经济和整个欧洲金融体系將会造成致命性的打击。而在政治上,若不对意大利银行业紓困,会造成欧盟分裂加剧,破坏长期以来欧洲推行的加强经济和货幣一体化的努力。

欧洲各国银行之间相互持有债券,一旦意大利银行业出现危机,到底问题会延生到什么程度?对金融市场本已脆弱的信心会打击到什么程度?谁也说不准。

银行在中央银行体系下,天下银行是一家,所以法国兴业银行董事长Lorenzo Bini Smaghi表示,意大利银行危机或蔓延至欧洲其它国家,欧盟应该重新考虑限制国家向银行业提供援助的规则。

与欧盟国家协商

而意大利也不会乖乖听从欧盟的话的。他提出了一项400亿欧元银行业救助计划被否决后,仍与欧盟相关国家协商发起一项由意大利政府提供担保,规模高达1500亿欧元的国家救助项目。意大利央行行长IgnazioVisco称,鉴于当前的困难有破坏意大利金融行业的风险,政府可能有必要出手救助本国银行。同时也是欧洲央行管理委员会成员的Visco表示金融稳定面临重重风险,进而要求政府准备在必要时施救,这完全符合欧盟的规定。

无论欧盟还是欧洲央行,都充斥著迂腐的官僚,他们是不会明白解决问题的方法就是一次过来个债务重组,痛他个两三年,就能彻底將病根消除。就算知道,可在畏惧若不提供援助给意大利银行业所引爆的政治经济危机,后果难以预测。在恐惧和无知驱使下,欧盟和欧洲央行迟早会修改提供援助的规则,因为他们毕竟还是害怕意大利银行业坏账风波会演变成欧元区金融危机。因此,意大利银行业的问题,我认为短期內不会引发大危机。欧盟最后会被逼妥协而提供资金援助。

就是因为欧美政府不断提供资金流动性,所以我们会看见这种诡异的情况,即银行股价是金融危机的股价,但是金融危机表面上却没有来。除非长期的货幣宽鬆造成通账失控,使得金价飆涨到5000美元一盎司,这个静悄悄且缓慢的金融危机才会表面化,並在全球掀起恐慌

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2016, 08:01:36 AM »



名家  2016年08月09日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
70年前的东条,现在的安倍

第二次世界大战的中日战爭中,日本国力所能支撑的扩张,其实在1938年武汉会战后就已经达到极限。隨后的太平洋战爭初期半年的大扩张,其实是日本不理会长期经济能力所能承担的军事开支的平衡点,强硬发动。虽然短期成效显著,但是因为国力无法支撑这么庞大的战爭,经济和军事的失衡扩大,使日本的扩张隨后土崩瓦解。

在日本军事越来越不利的时候,东条英机上台拜相,施行独裁专制的一元化政策,把日本最后仅剩的国力凝聚起来,全民皆兵,对中国发动「一號作战计划」。

富人获利民眾压力

这是毁灭前最后的疯狂,如同崩盘的金融市场,过程中在低点也会反弹一下的道理一样,但是最后的结果,还是不能阻止日本战败。


日本自1990年经济泡沫破裂后,已经连续低迷了26年。日本採取错误的政策,使得国家债务不断攀升,已经达到230%国內生產总值(GDP)的惊人水平。安倍晋三重新上台掌相位以来,不尝试纠正过往的经济失衡,反而採取更疯狂的大印钞票的「安倍经济学」。

「安倍经济学」施行以来,股市大涨也只是让富人得到好处,普罗大眾反而面临生活压力更大,这从日本泡麵销量显著增加,就可以看出倪端。因为选举获胜,安倍认为其经济政策在参院选举中贏得了信任,为加快推进这一路线,决定採取积极的財政刺激措施。

安倍的行为其实和70年前的东条英机如出一輒。都是在旧政策无法取得效果,且態势对日本越来越不利的情况下,不尝试改变,反而盲目试图把旧政策的力道加倍,寄望过去做同样事情得到同样失败的结果,以为再继续出更多力气做同样事情,失败结果却不会重复,这就是疯狂。

安倍自7月胜选后,就指示经济財政大臣石原伸晃和財务大臣麻生太郎,制定出经济刺激计划,並通过了一个超过28万亿日元规模的財政刺激计划。

安倍无视財政赤字

在这之前,安倍就强调:「必须彻底摆脱通缩,为经济增长开启道路。」他表示將集中致力于以下四个项目:加快落实「一亿总活跃计划」,推进农林水產品出口基地等基础设施建设,对中小企业提供资金扶持,加强防灾应对措施。安倍完全不理会当前日本严重的財政赤字,脱离现实妄想自己的「一亿总活跃计划」可以坚持到2020年度基础財政收支实现盈余的財政健全化目標。

歷史重演,日本帝国在二战灭亡前,也尝试把老人小孩女人带上战场,发动「一亿特攻」。

安倍的计划,说白了就是「直升机撒钱」,所以他才会和美国前联储局主席「直升机.柏南克」臭味相投。柏南克就力劝安倍继续保持其对抗通货紧缩的决定性姿態,並且和安倍会面时,表示安倍提振增长的措施迄今为止表现良好,他希望东京继续推进安倍经济学,以结束价格增长的负向循环。

除开安倍首相之外,联储前主席还会见了日本央行行长黑田东彦,以及財务省的官员们,相信会面中绝对少不了鼓吹「直升机撒钱」。

东条英机和安倍,虽然一武一文,但是就本质上,他们都是做同样的事情。就是在旧政策无法挽救当前江河日下的颓势时,以更强的力道,更疯狂的行径,重復过去得到无数次验证已经失败的政策,希望得到不同的结果

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2016, 09:02:20 AM »



名家  2016年07月31日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
通缩有害的谎言

现代经济学培养出来的经济学家,对通缩的恐惧往往大于通胀,他们认为通缩会使得债务负担加重,企业投资收益下降,大眾消极消费,进而使得整个社会的財富缩水。

这些理论其实是建立在顛倒的信用货幣体系基础上所建立的「真理」。无论它看起来多么合理,但是它的基础本来就是顛倒的,所以仍是歪理。

什么是通缩?一般经济学家的说法就是物价下跌。而物价下跌的另一面就是「钱更值钱」。你问老百姓,如果你的钱更值钱了,可以买更多东西?你要不要?

正常人都希望自己的钱更值钱,但是经济学家却认为钱贬值更好,倾向于通胀政策,这不是顛倒吗?


不影响消费慾望

钱变得更值钱使人民更为富裕,更有能力消费更多东西,怎么可能如经济学家所说会因为对物价下跌预期而减少消费呢?如果这理论成立,那电脑科技业应该早就垮了!

消费者不会因为价格下跌预期而不消费,因为消费与否都是取决于消费慾望。就算因为价格下跌预期而延后消费,最后还是会消费的。所以通缩会造成消费减少本来就站不住脚。

在有系统的经济洗脑下,很少人可以明白所谓的通缩真正的意思,就是流通货幣增长速度在减少,物价下跌只是货幣减少的结果。认为物价下跌会使得整个社会的財富的缩水,那是错把货幣数字当財富,而不是生產力错误思想。

本来人民应该更富裕,可以消费更多东西,投资更多產业,使得企业生產力和利润提高,带动就业和实现经济成长。但是在顛倒的信用货幣体系则一切顛倒。而通缩往往是因为之前乱印钞票的通胀泡沫出现破裂后的现象。因为泡沫破裂都是经济衰退,利益集团就製造一种谎言,顛倒因果,说通缩会带来企业生產力和利润降低,失业率上升和经济萎缩。而不问为何之前要製造通胀泡沫,將经济衰退赖给物价通缩做代罪羔羊,是因为他们不能明说我们要印更多钞票,印到印钞机烂为止。

无奈的是,在几十年有系统洗脑下,认同通缩有害的谎言之经济学家,漫山遍野。顛倒货幣体系的基础上衍生出来的经济学也是顛倒的,如同腐败的政权都认为贪污无罪,清廉有害(因为阻人发达如同杀人父母)

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2016, 02:31:58 PM »



Saturday, 3 September 2016
Many Malaysian households at risk of shocks
BY CECILIA KOK







 More expensive: The Malaysian households spend most of the income on housing, transport and food – prices of which are all on a rising trend. Food inflation, in particular, has risen faster than overall inflation.
More expensive: The Malaysian households spend most of the income on housing, transport and food – prices of which are all on a rising trend. Food inflation, in particular, has risen faster than overall inflation.
 
Popular Now in Business

The jobless youth conundrum
Affordable housing: How to own it?
Malaysia replaces Netherlands in Citi's tactical market allocation
Light at the end of the tunnel?
Back to basics
WE are living in challenging times.

With the global condition still in a fragile state, the Malaysian economy will likely face several more lean years ahead.

And it is a matter of concern, as data continues to show that many households in the country are a vulnerable lot, given the state of their finances.

Highly-leveraged with little savings, many will find themselves in a quandary in the event of a financial shock, which could stem from a loss of job, changes in interest rates or financial markets; or other factors such as physical impairment, death and divorce.

To put that into perspective, a study on the financial fragility of urban households in Malaysia has found that only 10.8% of them would be resilient to financial shocks.

The same study, as highlighted in the recently published State of Households II report by Khazanah Research Institute (KRI), indicates that more than 50% of the country’s urban households did not have any savings, and 20% would only be able to survive for less than three months if their incomes were cut off.

Similarly, Bank Negara’s Financial Inclusion and Capability Study finds that only 6% of Malaysians can survive for more than six months, and 18% up to three months, if they lost their main sources of income.

As it stands, 65% of household income in Malaysia is sourced from paid-employment.

“The job market condition has turned soft, as evidenced by the recent pick up in unemployment rate, and the lack of social safety net in Malaysia means that many households can only fall back on their own savings in the event of an economic shock,” independent economist Lee Heng Guie says.

“But if households have high debt levels and not enough buffer or savings in terms of liquid assets, they could face a lot of problems,” he tells StarBizWeek, noting that the risk is most prevalent among the lower income group, which is defined as households earning less than RM3,000 per month.

Malaysia’s unemployment rate stood at 3.4% as at June 2016, up from 3.2% a year ago.

Recent data, including the Monster Employment Index, which is a gauge of online job postings, suggests that hiring across key sectors such as oil and gas; banking and finance; hospitality; and retail remain muted amid the prevailing uncertain economic and business conditions.

“We are in the throes of economic slowdown and uncertainty; if our economy slows down further and inflation accelerates, many households will be affected,” Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam, chairman of Asli Centre of Public Policy Studies, says.

“As it is, many are living from hand to mouth, with their ‘heads just above the water’, they will be in crisis if the economy slows down further and this can cause major social problems for the country,” he says, noting that the potential social instability will depend on how long and deep the slowdown will last.

Malaysia’s economic growth is at its slowest in seven years at 4% during the April-June quarter of 2016 from 4.2% in the preceding quarter due to the persistently weak external environment.

Flawed economic model?

Ramon argues that policymakers need to have a serious look at the country’s economic model again and come up with an honest analysis over what went wrong.

“We need to look at how our economic model could result in having almost 90% households who are so vulnerable to economic shocks – could it be because of ongoing corruption, persistent wastage, poor income distribution or abuses of the National Economic Policy,” he says.

According to KRI, which is a research arm of sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the conundrum of high debt and low savings that puts many Malaysian households at risk is mainly a result of their relatively low income levels, but high consumerism.

“The bottom line is, household incomes have to improve,” KRI managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani says.

“The Government has already outlined many initiatives, such as efforts to move the economy up the value chain and so on, to boost household incomes... we need to remain focused and accelerate these efforts,” he adds.

KRI notes that household incomes and expenditure are as important yardstick of the nation’s well-being as more aggregate measures such as the gross domestic product.

Official statistics show that the median household income in Malaysia has improved to RM4,585 per month in 2014 from RM3,626 per month in 2012.

For the low-income group, who makes up the bottom 40% of Malaysian households, the median monthly income has improved to RM2,629 from RM1,852.

The middle-income group, who makes up 40% of Malaysian households, on the other hand, saw an improvement to RM5,465 per month from RM4,372 per month previously, while the better off, who make up the top 20% of the country’s households, earn a median income of RM11,610 per month in 2014, compared with RM9,796 per month in 2012.

While KRI’s report does not reveal anything new, being merely compilation of readily available data from various government agencies, it does give a comprehensive overview of the state of Malaysian households.

It notes that Malaysian households spend most of the income on housing, transport and food – prices of which are all on a rising trend. Food inflation, in particular, has risen faster than overall inflation.

The lower-income group remains worse off.

KRI points out that richest households need only to allocate 9.9% of their monthly expenditure, or RM992, on food, while the poorest households, who earn less than RM2,000, have to spend 30.4%, or RM403, of their monthly expenditure on food.

In general, consumerism remains high in Malaysia, with many households owning discretionary durable goods such as television, washing machines and refrigerators, as well as cars, motorcycles and mobile phones.

According to KRI, low-income households that cannot afford to buy all those high-valued items with cash have resorted to loans and credit to fund their consumption, while the wealthiest tend to pay by cash.

It notes that while the better-off choose credit based on interest rates, the least well-off, who tend to have low financial literacy and limited access to debt, choose based on what is on offer and the instalment payments they can afford, rather than the true Annual Percentage Rate (APR). The latter could ultimately result in the least well-off paying significantly higher prices for their consumption.

“In our previous state of households report, we had proposed several measures to reform household debt such as requiring all providers of consumer credit to prominently advertise the true APR, realigning the regulation of consumer credit between the various government agencies currently in charge, and mandating the teaching of basic financial literacy in schools. To date, these proposals have yet to be implemented,” Charon says, adding that it is important for consumers to know the actual costs they are paying through credit purchases.

Financial imbalances

Malaysia is noted to have the highest household-debt-to-GDP ratio in Asia. Household savings, which is a major component of financial resilience, on the other hand, is low.

The country’s household-debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 89.1% last year, from 87.4% in 2014. It remains significantly higher than that of Indonesia at 17% and Singapore at around 60%.

The bulk of the household debt in Malaysia has been undertaken to finance appreciating assets such as residential properties and securities.

Meanwhile, Malaysian household savings stood at 1.5% of adjusted disposable income in 2014, which is the last year for which such data was publically available. Between 2006 and 2014, household savings averaged at 1.6% of adjusted disposable income.

By comparison, the US household savings rate, which is generally acknowledged as being very low, is much higher at 5%.

“The ratio of 1.5% of household savings to adjusted disposable income in Malaysia is an average figure; some households may save far more than others, and are therefore more financially resilient,” KRI says.

According to economists, the high household debt in Malaysia is unlikely to pose a systemic risk to the country’s economy. This is because the trend is accompanied by a similar increase in financial assets and Bank Negara has taken several macro-prudential measures to prevent financial imbalances.

Overall household balance sheet remains healthy, with the total household financial asset-to-debt ratio standing at more than two times over the past five years and total liquid financial asset-to-debt ratio ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 times over the same period.

But the reality is that while household balance sheets look healthy at the aggregate level, households in different income classes face different financial risks.

“Households in the lower income brackets have much higher leverage, that is debt-to-income ratios, compared to those in higher-income brackets,” KRI notes.

According to Bank Negara, although households earning less than RM3,000 a month have a relatively low share of total household debt (22.6% in 2015), they have a leverage ratio of seven times their annual income, on average.

By comparison, higher-income households have a much lower leverage ratio at around three times on average.

KRI notes that the pressing concern is how much debt low-income households have taken on relative to their ability to pay. They spend most of their income and have little savings, making them susceptible to financial stress should interest rates and inflation continue to rise.

Debt-fuelled consumption in Malaysia may have helped support the country’s growth in recent years.

But with headwinds increasing, it is pertinent to consider measures to counter the potential impact of a global slowdown on the many vulnerable households in the country. They are after all part of the engine of growth at a time when the country is counting on domestic consumption to support the economy

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2016, 03:37:42 PM »



When being in debt can be a ‘good’ thing
BY A. RUBAN
Published: September 4, 2016 06:38 AM GMT+8

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

   
4
 
   
0
 
   
2
 
   
0
 
     
Increases in both the average Malaysian household income and debt may be indicating that Malaysians are investing in properties, which some economists believe is ‘a good form of debt’. — File pic
Increases in both the average Malaysian household income and debt may be indicating that Malaysians are investing in properties, which some economists believe is ‘a good form of debt’. — File pic
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 4 — Your household income has risen, but so has your household borrowing to pay for that house you bought a while ago and it feels like you’re living on a thinner wallet these days.

If you’re getting anxiety attacks over your financial future, relax a little. Economists contacted by Malay Mail Online said while recent reports showing increases in both the average household income and debt may look scary, it also shows Malaysians might actually be enjoying a better quality of life.

According to their analyses, most of the household borrowings was because Malaysians are investing in properties, and that, they said, is generally “a good form of debt”.

“In general, Malaysians are doing better as most of them borrow to buy properties,” said Dr Yeah Kim Leng, professor of economics at the Sunway University Business School.

“But if the price of properties climb faster than the climb in our salaries, then it can be a problem,” Yeah added.


However, he also said such a situation where an increase in loans tops the rise in revenue is unlikely due to Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) policy to check growing household debt by making it tougher for banks to simply give out any kind of loan.

Penang Institute chief executive and economics head Dr Lim Kim Hwa also said this pattern should not cause actual worry.

“It is only worrying if the people borrowed money to cope with the rising cost of living, but the data from BNM reflected otherwise,” he said.

The central bank’s annual report for 2013 — the most recent figures available — showed household debt levels overall has increased to 87 per cent, a steady climb from 60 per cent in 2008. Of that figure though, more than 40 per cent of household debt went into loans for property purchases.

At the same time, the BNM data also showed a steady increase in the composition of household assets for the same period, with over 322 per cent to the gross domestic product (GDP) acquiring diversified assets and with the housing wealth segment taking up the largest chunk of them all.

More recently, government-linked Khazanah Research Institute’s latest data showed the average Malaysian household has been earning higher income levels over the years.

Its latest State of the Households Report released earlier this week showed the average monthly household income rose to RM6,141 in 2014 compared to 2012, suggesting an overall improvement in the quality of life for Malaysians domestically.

But like many other things, there is a caveat.

One economist cautioned that while Malaysians have increased their purchasing power thanks to a higher household income, they should not throw their entire disposable income into property investment.

“It is important to keep some of your disposable income for rainy days such children’s education or healthcare because spending all that you have on long-term loans for investment purpose is not really a good idea,” said the economist who spoke on condition of anonymity.

He said it would be alarming if the lower-income group attempted to mimic such investment moves.

“Those households with an income of RM3,000 or lesser must be extremely careful in spending because these people borrow money for purchasing a home and then some extra cash for other purposes.

“With some banks giving out personal loans so easily these days, it can be very tempting for those who needs fast cash,” he said.

He urged the government to introduce special measures as a safety net to enable this lower income group to cope with rising living costs

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/when-being-in-debt-can-be-a-good-thing#sthash.uOL2tayW.dpuf

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2016, 08:21:27 AM »



2016-09-06 10:31
丹斯里雷蒙·扭曲的大马经济模式?
为甚麽国内月收入少於3000令吉的家庭会面对严峻的债务问题?为甚麽他们为了过得好一点而借贷超过他们收入的7倍?这样的生活方式会让他们捉襟见肘,因为他们肯定是入不敷出。因此他们几乎是一直必须欠借贷公司丶大耳窿和银行钱,任他们宰割。这不单是扭曲而且是可悲的情况。
国库研究中心(KRI)丶国库领导层和KRI董事经理查仑莫扎尼应该受到赞许而不是被批评,因为他提供了我们专业的报告:《国家家庭单位Ⅱ》。

广告

我们可以从这份有深刻见解的研究报告,清楚获知国内有哪些部份出了问题。

报告显示我们的财富和收入在独立59年之後仍然极之不公平分配。报告中提供了铁证,并且反映出我们的经济模式以及实施方式或许已经被扭曲。

到底发生了甚麽问题?

为甚麽国内月收入少於3000令吉的家庭会面对严峻的债务问题?为甚麽他们为了过得好一点而借贷超过他们收入的7倍?这样的生活方式会让他们捉襟见肘,因为他们肯定是入不敷出。因此他们几乎是一直必须欠借贷公司丶大耳窿和银行钱,任他们宰割。这不单是扭曲而且是可悲的情况。

为甚麽会这样?难道政府的5年大马计划和年度财政预算案无法满足贫穷及低收入人民的基本需求,如房屋丶保健丶交通和教育?他们的薪酬是不是被过度地压榨,还有通货膨胀逐渐地使到他们无法负荷?

讽刺的是,在同个时间内,我们一再地宣称达致了相当高的经济成长率即每年4至5%。然而我们的疑问是高经济成长率都往哪里去了?是不是大部份落入富人和权贵们手中,而贫穷者被牺牲了?

广告

KRI指出只有约10.8%的城市家庭能应付失业丶意外丶死亡丶利率转变和经济成长下滑的震荡。所以那些会受到经济不稳定甚至衰退和通货膨胀严重影响的大多数89.2%大马人该怎麽办?他们肯定会承受新而严峻的困境,并会觉得讨生活极度不易。更甚的是,如果我们不及时在明年度预算案和未来经济计划中处理这个问题,相信在不久的将来我们会发生更巨大的社会紧张局势甚至社会动乱。

我们可以做甚麽?解决方案可以是如以下:一丶检讨并修改现有的经济模式,令其更加具竞争力丶效率和生产力。将深植於经济中的保护主义和偏差去除。国库控股可以充当领头羊,令本身更开放丶减少受保护丶更具竞争力和更具生产力。那些位处社会阶级最顶层者所获得并享有的保护和优先权,贬抑了竞争力和高生产力所能带来的利益,这些都是能够真正惠泽贫穷者和低收入者的利益。建议中的新经济模式必须重构已过时的新经济政策模式,以改善经济成长并提供更佳的收入分配。

二丶增加食品供应以减少生活成本。

这可以通过更公平地开放更多土地和机会给农民和渔民增加渔农产品。同样的,执照丶招标和合约也必须开放竞争,以便刺激生产量和生产力。

广告

三丶大幅减少贪污和公共资源浪费。

如果政府展现更大的政治意愿,大力打击贪污,就能改善无效率和经济扭曲现象。

政府的花费年年增加,如果随着贪污丶浪费和效率低落获得改善,人们就能够享有更多好处。

四丶作为长期计划,我们必须大事重构经济计划和预算案。2017年度预算案可以为底层40%人民汇集更多资源,增加房屋丶交通丶保健的拨款,而更高薪酬可以带动生产力和表现。

五丶经济架构重组也意味着更好的税务架构,提高高收入群的税率,如产业税和财富税。

更重要的是,教育制度必须重新修改,以便更迎合经济成长,尤其是收入分配和公平收入的挑战。不断升高的大学生失业率可以通过提升科学工艺训练和注重英文来减少。

一个更好的教育系统肯定能够减少人才和资金外流,这样经济成长丶就业率和高收入就不至於受到抑制,国家也因此不会受困於中等收入陷阱中。

我希望政府能够更重视KRI的报告,大胆的做出改革,以便能抑制经济模式继续受到扭曲。

文章来源:
星洲日报/本报特约·作者:丹斯里雷蒙·ASLI公共策略研究主席·2016.09.06

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2016, 11:37:18 AM »



财经
理財贏家‧管得好一身輕 債務不宜超過收入40%
 7022点阅   2016年9月08日
20160909bs21

報導:林玉敏



理財第一步,永遠都是要你先還清債務,否則儲蓄投資都免談!

砂拉越大學(UNIMAS)經濟與商業科系沙查里曼梳教授近期指出,國人容易接觸個人貸款和信用卡,是導致國人債高築的主要原因。

但容易獲得這些“未來錢”並不是累積債務的借口,個人花費習性及對金錢的態度才是關鍵。

理財專家將和大家分享一些解決債務的方式和故事,讓你盡快享受無債一身輕的日子。

信貸諮詢及債務管理機構(AKPK)理財教育課程導師莊國輝博士回應《中國報》提問時指出,要管理好債務,首先在舉債前,先探討“3P法則”,即Purpose(借貸目的)、Payment Capability(還貸能力)及Payment History(還貸紀錄)。

“你得先理清借貸的目的,了解本身的還貸能力,放貸機構再根據你過往的還貸紀錄,安心放貸予你。你就不會沒弄清楚是否有還貸能力,胡亂舉債。”

他說,放貸機構要先瞭解貸款目的,以評估所涉及的風險,才依據貸款類型來配搭你的借貸目的。

至于償還紀錄,莊國輝說,過去或現有貸款的償還紀錄,將決定你屬于哪一類型的借貸者。若你償還紀錄欠佳,獲得新貸款的機會將減少。

接下來,最重要的就是還貸能力。

評估現金流狀況

“放貸機構希望看到借貸者的收入和工作穩定,進而評估你的現金流狀況,期望你有足夠的剩余收入或現金儲備,來承擔新的債務負擔。衡量償貸能力的重要指標,是你的債務對收入比例。”

他指出,債務對收入比例,反映出個人每月貸款償還總額,占每月總收入的比重。債務對收入比率偏高,意味著這個人可能沒有足夠現金來應付每月所需。莊國輝認為,借貸的基本法則是,每月償還的所有貸款與信用卡債總額,不應該超過每月總收入的40%比重。

莊國輝舉例,A先生的總月入3800令吉。每月包括房貸,車貸及卡債在內,總債務償還總額是2128令吉,意指債務對收入比率為56%,超出所建議的水平(即40%)。

在這情況下,最好的做法是,通過提高收入,或降低貸款負擔,來降低他的債務對收入比率。

邁悅理財教育機構總導師兼執業財務規劃師周志強認同指出,為了避免陷入債務的困境,要明白自己的收入和貸款比例。

“切記總貸款額別超過每月收入的45%。通過房貸購買的房子,價格不能超過60個月的收入,至于貸款購買的汽車,售價則別超過12個月收入。”

信用卡銀行最好控制在3家

在國家銀行提倡“無現金交易”,及信用卡方便網購和作大額項目(big ticket item)交易,人手一張信用卡幾乎無法避免。不過,建議信用卡使用盡量控制在最多3家銀行。

根據國行數據,我國去年涉及信用卡貸款申請為315億9500萬令吉,截至今年6月底的相關貸款已達215億9000萬令吉,超過去年的半數(157億9750萬令吉)。

莊國輝指出,千萬別過度貸款或刷卡消費,因為這將影響借貸者的債務對收入比例,進而可能影響貸款信譽。

周志強建議,信用卡盡量控制在最多3家銀行,如果連續3個月因慾望而刷卡超支,建議停止帶卡出門。

“若每月開銷還是要用到信用卡來周轉,切記專注用1張卡,且每月確保這張信用卡的消費賬單完全清還。最避忌東用一點,西用一點。刷太多張信用卡,很難控制和償還卡債。”

如果多張信用卡都欠下卡債,周志強建議,可專注清還最低欠額的債務,再逐漸清還其他卡。

優先解決高息貸款

周志強說,要減低債務,先從高利息貸款下手,盡可能把高利息貸款,轉成較低利息,如把信用卡欠額轉成低息貸款,或定期貸款。

對于債務嚴重者,周志強指出,若有房貸可以再融資,就使用再融資的資金,付清高利息的信用卡等貸款。

同時,周志強建議,把短期債務轉化成長期貸款,減低每月現金流壓力。

“債務繁重者,也可和相關銀行商量,更嚴重者可找信貸咨詢及債務管理機構咨詢與協助。”

可向AKPK求助

作為國家銀行獨資子公司,信貸諮詢及債務管理機構旨在為成年消費者提供金融教育,金融諮詢及債務管理咨詢計劃,繼續推廣審慎理財。

根據信貸諮詢及債務管理機構提供的數據,從2006年4月份成立至今年6月份期間,共有44萬9834人針對解決債務,向機構尋求諮詢服務。當中,共有15萬5147國人參與該機構的債務管理咨詢計劃(DMP),並分享了2個向機構尋求協助,並擺脫債務的成功個案。

下定決心避免新債務

“這筆A債務快到期了,先另尋一筆貸款(B債務),償還A債務吧!”

這是部份人解決債務時,認為最直接也最快速的方法,不過這種做法則大錯特錯!通過貸款解決債務不成,卻挖了更多的債務坑,結果債務像雪球般越滾越大,不知何時才能償還所有的債務。

又或者還債決心不夠,前一刻想償債,后一刻又亂花錢,瞬間“購物王狂”上身,刷太多卡,債務越來越多,就算當上全副身家,也未必夠還債。

根據該機構提供的數據,財務規劃疲弱是累積債務的主因,佔51.5%。緊接著是,生意失敗/放緩(15.2%)、高醫療費用(11.7%)、裁員/失去養家糊口的經濟支柱(9.6%),高生活成本(9.3%)及其他(3.1%)。

周志強認為,降低和解決債務之前,關鍵點在于,警惕自己別再製造新債務!否則,一切徒然!

“下定決心,約束自己在特定時間內節省。例如,一年內把娛樂消費全去除、不添購新衣、三餐盡可能從簡或自理,刪除所有惡習,如抽煙,喝酒,投注萬字等。”

除了削減不必要開銷,周志強也建議,增加收入,改善自己的經濟能力,也可盡早還清債務。

“不妨考慮兼職、做代理銷售,或出國工作。下定決心減債者,在非常時期就要做非常事,只要合法都應該去做!只有吸取教訓者,未來才有更好的理財基礎!”

管理債務7大好處

債務本身非惡事,莊國輝說,只要有良好的債務管理能力與智慧,以借貸方式購買車子與房子,是能幫助我們實現目標。

“不善的財務管理,將造成各種負面后果;良好的債務管理,使你更快實現你的財務目標。”

● 好處1: 有效管理現金流,有余款作儲蓄、建立緊急戶口及進行優質投資。

● 好處2: 謹慎的債務選擇可累積財富,負債減少,可建立有效資產管理。

● 好處3: 避免延遲償還遭罰款

● 好處4: 精明管理債務,很快便可還清,省下更多利息,減少借貸成本。

● 好處5: 維持良好貸款信譽,以后借貸更易。

● 好處6: 按時償還債務,可避免受金融機構干擾或遭法律對付。

● 好處7: 家人往往因金錢問題而產生誤會,良好管理債務,不但與家人保持融洽關係,有助提高工作效力。

AKPK成功案列1

年齡:28歲
職業:工程師
婚姻狀況:單身
債務問題主因 :作貸款擔保人
山姆與小玲求學時期認識,交往多年后,小玲要求山姆成為她的車貸擔保人。

在山姆成為擔保人的3個月后,小玲開始出現貸款違約情況,山姆代還,一直到他發現“女友將結婚,但新郎不是我”,小玲將與另一名男子結婚。

在山姆不知情的情況下,小玲繼續拖欠車貸,且不斷更換工作與住處。

金融機構基于小玲沒償還貸款,收回並拍賣該汽車。但拍賣后,小玲依然拖欠相關金融機構4萬5000令吉。

由于山姆是這項貸款的擔保人,在小玲無法償還的情況下,金融機構轉向山姆追討欠款,甚至向無能力還的山姆採取法律行動。

陷入財務困境,山姆決定向AKPK尋求咨詢援助。

該機構指出,身為貸款擔保人若沒履行責任,會因此與借貸人陷入破產。

“這個個案告訴我們,別輕易當貸款擔保人 。在分析利害之后,山姆決定擔當責任,把這次當作人生經驗。參與債務重組計劃,山姆很快把債還清,重新做好財務規劃。”

該機構提醒,當一個人的信譽受質疑,放貸機構一般上會要求一名擔保人,為相關貸款提供擔保。一旦借貸者出現貸款違約,擔保人需負責該筆貸款,包括利息。

“擔保人對借貸者的擔保責任一直有效,直到貸款還清。除非貸款還清,或者獲得放貸機構的批准,否則擔保人將不能卸下擔保責任。”

AKPK成功案列2

年齡:33歲
職業:醫生
婚姻狀況:單身
債務問題主因 :過度享受奢侈生活
阿占是名年輕有為的成功人士,擁有大家夢寐以求的人生:2部豪華汽車、1個高級公寓單位,以及1份前途無量的事業。

過著奢侈生活的他認為,作為月入5位數的專科醫生,足以讓他實現財務自由,深信自己可負擔任何金錢能夠買到的東西,因此高度依賴信用卡。

擁有5張信用卡的他,現金管理差,也缺乏儲蓄習慣,甚至沒有財務危機感。

于是他很快便陷入財務困境,無法繼續供車,只能支付信用卡最低償還數額。更糟糕的是,公寓單位已拖欠3個月租金。

最終他欠下巨額債務,在面對被逐出公寓之際,還被一群債主追債,僅信用卡債就高達12萬令吉。基于貸款違約,1部汽車被拖走了。眼看即將破產,他決定向AKPK尋求援助。

AKPK指出,阿占屬于高收入群,但問題在于他沒有好好規劃錢財,卻優先購買奢侈品。

經過AKPK的講解與指導,阿占加入了債務重組計劃后,已脫離債務危機,並承諾好好學習理財。

20160909bs11


Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 02:17:27 PM »



Fitch: Noh Omar's proposal can worsen rising household debt
 moneylending housingdevelopers
 6 comments     Published Today 12:57 pm     Updated Today 1:29 pm

34
 
Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Minister Noh Omar's proposal to allow property developers to grant loans can worsen the rising household debt in Malaysia, ratings agency Fitch Ratings says.

"(It) could add to the risks associated with rising household debt.

"The scheme is likely to encourage unregulated lending to households with weak financial profiles, and could undermine the strength of the financial system if not implemented prudently," Fitch Ratings said in a report on its website yesterday.



Noh announced last Thursday that developers could now apply for a money lending licence to provide loans to house buyers.

He had said the interest rate of the loan would be capped at 12 percent with collateral, or up to 18 percent without collateral.

The cabinet yesterday told him to study this proposal further.

The Finance Ministry has previously said that as at March this year, household debt stood at RM1.04 trillion, or 89 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Then deputy finance minister Chua Tee Yong (photo) told Parliament in May that 80 percent of the debt is from banking institutions.

"Those earning less than RM3,000 per month have a debt equivalent of around seven times their annual income, compared with three times among higher-income households.

"It is precisely those households with weaker financial profiles and poor access to bank loans that are likely to be targeted by developers," Fitch Ratings said.

This, it said, would especially be a problem as loans from property developers would not fall under Bank Negara's oversight, and would run counter to the central bank's efforts to curb the rise in household debt.

These efforts, the agency said, have been successful, with household debt growth easing from a peak of 16.8 percent in 2011 to just 7.3 percent in 2015.

Fitch said larger developers would likely be more cautious in handing out loans as they would have a hard time assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers. Plus, their businesses are already profitable.


"However, weaker developers could be tempted to lend in order to ramp up property sales."

Noh had defended his plan as being an alternative means for the people to obtain loans to buy low-cost housing.

However, critics of the plan said the problem was not that people could not obtain loans, but that affordable housing was not affordable.

Meanwhile Second Finance Minister Johari Abdul Ghani pointed out that if house buyers could not obtain loans from banks at an interest rate of between four and six percent, it was not logical to expect them to be able to cope with a loan that imposes an interest of up to 18 percent.



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/355786#ixzz4KImsBFEf

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2016, 07:09:54 AM »



Thursday, 22 September 2016 | MYT 11:55 AM
Loans to households in Malaysia higher than GDP: Allianz Wealth Report






 The 7.2% growth in loans to the households exceeded the GDP of 4.6% growth and even their financial assets with 4.9%
The 7.2% growth in loans to the households exceeded the GDP of 4.6% growth and even their financial assets with 4.9%
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Loans to private households increased at a faster pace than national gross domestic product (GDP) and also their financial assets in 2015, according to the Allianz Global Wealth Report.

Popular Now in Business

What if you're not as rich as you think you are?
Tycoon Quek quits Guoco in wider plan of succession?
DRB-Hicom sells The Verge at 40% below earlier estimated price
Ringgit surges vs US$ after Fed leaves rates unchanged
In bold move KWAP invests RM124mil in Uber, a non-traditonal asset
It said on Thursday the 7.2% growth in loans to the households exceeded the GDP of 4.6% growth and even their financial assets with 4.9% “thus worsening the private debt to GDP ratio and asset to debt ratio further”.

“Household debt climbed to 89.1% of GDP, while the financial assets to GDP ratio edged up only marginally to 182.9% from 182.4% in 2014,” it said in the seventh edition of the report.

The report also pointed out that at the end of 2015, every inhabitant of Malaysia had debts to the tune of Euros 7,285 (about RM33,500) as against average financial assets of Euros 14,960 (RM68,810).

“The assets to liabilities ratio of 2.1 seems to be comfortable, indicating that most households should be able to repay their debts.

“However, it has to be pointed out that only Thailand had a lower ratio. In Taiwan, for example, a country with a similarly high debt to GDP ratio of 90.4%, the respective ratio was 5.5,” it pointed out.

Allianz also said with net financial assets per capita amounting to Euros 7,670, Malaysia ranked 34th worldwide and 7th in the Asian comparison.

It noted that together with China, Malaysia forms a kind of midfield of the analyzed Asian countries, with per capita net financial assets four times the per capita net financial assets in Thailand, which ranked one place behind Malaysia, but still only 9% of those in Japan, the richest Asian country in terms of net financial assets per capita.

The report puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.

It noted that based on the findings of the report, it seems that the good years are a thing of the past: global financial assets climbed by 4.9% in 2015, just a whisker above the growth rate of economic activity.

In the three previous years, financial assets grew at twice that pace, with an average rate of 9%.

Alianz chief economist  Michael Heise said the development of financial assets has reached a critical juncture.

“Obviously, extreme monetary policy is losing its impact even on asset prices. As a consequence, an important driver for asset growth no longer exists. At the same time, interest rates continue their remorseless slide, even into negative territory. For savers, the outlook is not rosy,” he added.

The report pointed out that growth in financial assets in industrial countries was slowing. Hence, slowing growth has hit Europe, the US and Japan the hardest.

In Western Europe (3.2%) and the US (2.4%), asset growth more than halved in 2015.

At the other end of the spectrum is Asia (excluding Japan), where financial assets expanded by 14.8%.

The region's lead over the rest of the world is only getting bigger. This also applies in relation to the world's other two up-and-coming regions, Latin America and Eastern Europe, where average growth was only half that in Asia.

The report pointed out the days in which these regions were able to keep up with their counterparts in Asia are long gone.

Of the total global financial assets of Euros 155 trillion, the region Asia (excluding Japan) accounted for 18.5% in 2015; this not only means that the proportion of assets held by this region has more than trebled since 2000 but also that the region’s share now far outstrips that of the eurozone (14.2%)

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2016, 08:44:34 AM »



财经
向非法財務機構交涉 國行擬立法保障消費者
 1620点阅   2016年9月23日
■國行與政府為保障國人將推介消費信貸立法。
■國行與政府為保障國人將推介消費信貸立法。
報導:盧慧儀

(吉隆坡22日訊)國家銀行與政府探討推介消費信貸立法,以保障那些向沒有執照財務機構交涉的商家與家庭。



針對這項建議,中總社會經濟研究中心執行董事李興裕認為,這是國行控制家庭債務的部分措施,讓我國有更健全的融資管道。

“很多人可能面對透支問題,在無法從銀行貸款之際,轉向非法財務機構借貸,進而造成財務負擔且影響家庭財務狀況。”

國行總裁拿督莫哈末依布拉欣今日為“2016年未來金融研討會”致開幕詞時指出,立法將為商家和家庭提供可靠的保障。

“為了迎合小型企業的融資需求,我們必須考量適當的安排以推動替代融資工具的發展。”

可掌握更多相關數據

李興裕接受《中國報》提問時指出,這方面的法律管制實施不易,能否湊效也需視執行方法。

不過,他稱將財務機構合法化並非不可能,雖然提供貸款的利率或不及銀行,至少可在國行的管制範圍明確掌握家庭債務情況。

“這些影子銀行的規模或許比想像中大,因此大馬的家庭債務規模也有可能更大,暴露的風險較預期高。”

李興裕認為,國行至少可掌握相關數據,進行監管和採取措施。他以消費稅的實施為例,是取決于如何執行,如果奏效反而對未來經濟有幫助,讓政府獲得更多稅收。

小型企業一般缺乏妥善文件處理紀錄,在無法提供文件向銀行申請借貸的情況下,才轉向不合法管道尋求資金援助。

“現在也是時候停止80、90年代的經商模式,小企業應具備妥當的書面紀錄,可應對消費稅之余也方便貸款申請。”

隨著時代變遷,國行或許會將非主流借貸機構納入主流,不過執行模式始終是關鍵。

研發框架 減低金融波動性

同時,國行正與大馬存保機構(PIDM)開發一項多年的計劃,以研發一個復甦和解決方案框架,這對于解決國內和全球金融系統聯繫日益加強非常重要。

莫哈末依布拉欣說:“這項多年工程也是國行重要的優先事項,確保金融機構作好準備管理潛在壓力,以及保留最加方式來管理金融機構的任何失利,降低對金融穩定性的影響。”

國行和大馬存保機構將在明年初開始,與領域啟動一系列接洽,分享更多有關框架詳情以及如何影響企業。

莫哈末依布拉欣稱,全球經濟和金融系統連接性更強。這些發展有利于企業和貿易,並且大幅複合化金融故障的經濟和社會成本。

他指出,在宏觀層面,低至停滯的經濟成長已成“新常態”。發達經濟體的成長貧乏,且低于經濟衰退前的水平。

長期利率壓低影響銀行的淨利息賺幅,以及保險業者的投資收入。低成長預計會維持一段時間,傳統成長模式和策略的壓力增加,並專注于新成長引擎。莫哈末依布拉欣指國行在這些發展上都先行一步。

為支撐金融革新和新業務,以及金融機構的成長模式,國行近期推介立法的討論文件,為金融科技企業、金融機構和國行提供合作機會,以開發可信賴革新和實用立法。

“最終關于監管沙盒的政策文件,預計會在今年10月初發行。

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2016, 08:18:26 AM »



龙门阵  2016年10月07日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
房价下跌才能救经济

293
房价下跌才能救经济

在过去低利率下,大马房价出现前所未有的涨幅,高昂屋价压垮了购屋者的荷包外,也令更多人民望屋兴嘆天涯何处是我家?

早在过去二、三年,我就极力劝阻人不要在房產泡沫价时买屋,无论你的目的是自住还是投资,將来必然会出现房价暴跌和利息成本飆涨的苦果。对于一般老百姓,这是不可承受之重,曾经在1997年亚洲金融风暴前一、二年买屋的人,应该多少有些经验体会。

房价的上涨,除了是低利率的货幣宽鬆所造成外,早期政府废除一些防止房地產投机的法令,例如对过早转售房屋徵高额课税,都是重要的原因。面临人民购屋无门的窘境,朝野当局所提出的方案都有问题,不过都是希望银行降低信贷標准放贷,或者增加也不便宜的可负担房屋的建设。

其中,城市和谐、房屋及地方政府部长丹斯里诺奥玛对经济完全一窍不通,突发其想建议让发展商成为放贷人,这在现实中根本不可行。因为房地產发展商根本没这么多足够的资金放贷给购屋者,况且发展商卖屋是要赚取现金流动,如果兼放贷的话不是等于扼杀自己的现金流,岂不是和企业自杀无异。第二財政部长拿督佐哈里更「打脸」说,大部分发展商都需要向银行借贷才有能力进行发展,若还需贷款给购屋者,这是无法永续的做法。


若要发展商成为放贷人,前提就是要让他们自己成立银行,才能通过吸纳存款和利用部份准备金製槓桿放大才行的通。但是这样做的恶果就是会使得这些发展商在风险监控中產生矛盾,一边要卖屋赚取经营现金,放贷则需要顾虑借贷人的信用。

降低房价解决滯销

这样的制度必然会屈服于发展商的需求而使得信贷爁发,未来必然爆发危机。这种做法另外一个问题就是会助长房价继续往上推,让更多人民买不起房屋。因此就算有效,也只是短期的,將来会製造更大的危机。

因为房地產泡沫的威胁存在,使得国家银行收紧申请房贷的条件,令购屋者面对难获贷款购买新屋的限制。泡沫的房价也使得人民根本难以购买房屋。

根据《东方日报》报导,檳州滯销的住宅单位再创新高,于第二季增至1432个单位,市值超过10亿令吉。

《2016年第2季滯销建竣產业》报告显示,檳州85%滯销房屋单位价格超过40万令吉。

这报告清楚表明大马人民的收入只能买中、低价屋,所以要解决大马人民购屋难,以及现在房地產商的滯销困境,方法就是让大马房价全面降下来,降至大马人民收入可承担的范围內,这市场的供需就会恢復平衡。

当然,房价下跌过程中会造成经济困难,银行呆帐增加等问题。但若知道有这个苦果,当初就不应该製造房地產泡沫。竟然已经製造了泡沫,就必须承当这后果。没有苦口的就不是良药,若一味躲避苦口良药,而妄想通过放宽信贷標准来延续泡沫,最后必然玩火自焚,且被反噬的更加尸骨无存

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2016, 07:57:48 AM »



东方文荟  2016年10月22日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
没预算未来的预算案

2017年大马財政预算案出炉,依然仍是赤字財政的预算。而財赤目標不过是希望从2016年占国內生產总值(GDP)的3.1%,下降到3.0%而已。2017年预算赤字是403亿4400万令吉。

在国际经济环境低迷,人民因为消费税而生活压力增加,信贷扩张以及商业和消费者信心呈现持续下滑趋势的情况下,政府仍脱离现实,预期2017年大马经济料在「强劲內需」驱动下,可出现比2016年更佳的4-5%扩张(2016年预计4-4.5%)。

削减津贴亦无助

政府认为2017年的消费税收入预计为400亿令吉,比2016预计的385亿令吉还高。但消费税已经造成国內消费和生產减少。今年第一季消费税税收102亿令吉,而第二季只有71亿令吉,下挫30%。两季累积消费税税收低于目標,政府的预算完全漠视现实。因为没有財政纪律和这种漫不经心的心態,所以政府向来年年追加预算已是常態,故此预算案的数据只能仅供参考。


政府已经逐年削减生活必需品如白糖、ST白米、麵粉、电费、食油、汽油和柴油的津贴。无疑这些津贴负担庞大,如2012年油价津贴高峰时期达到248亿令吉,佔预算案开销的9.8%。但腐败的財政纪律使得即使津贴减少,政府財政仍然赤字,贪污腐败、浪费公帑现象依旧。而削减津贴同时並没有开放市场竞爭,使得这些商品仍由少数集团垄断,价格降不下去且持续涨价,人民生活费越来越高。实际上削减津贴並非不可,问题在于政策缺乏完整配套,非但不能降低政府財赤,人民生活也无法改善。

2014年以来我国税收已经呈下滑趋势,財政开支仍居高不下,花百姓的钱毫不手软。面临税收减少时,政府不是设法减少无谓的开支和「买贵」弊端,反而向人民徵收消费税来救自己的开销。

忽视整体持续性

完全没有节省思想的政府只会越花越多钱,使得2017年財政预算案开销金额比去年还增加了33.4%至2608亿令吉。营运开销仍高达八成达2148亿令吉,其中公务员薪酬就774亿令吉,发展开支不过460亿,为人詬病的臃肿政府机关仍不见改善。

发展开支因政府臃肿而投入金额太少,所以虽然在预算案中出现不少洋洋洒洒的基础建设项目,如马路、桥樑、街灯;提升水、电系统、医疗设施及建造和翻新17万间偏远郊区的房屋及原住民住宿,但是成效非常有限。尤其我国一向有「干捞」和「买贵」的传统下,发展成效更会打折扣。

为了圆B40(低下阶层)群体的房屋梦,预算案拨款2亿令吉推行「我的美丽花园」计划,初步阶段將会建造5000个单位,价位从4万到5万之间。因尚不知道这些房屋建设规划,所以尚难定论成败。不过,若这政策好的话,其实应该成为长期国策来照顾低收入的社群。

每年財政预算案发佈时老百姓都会注意一下有什么部分对自己有利,往往忽视整体財政长期的可持续性,从不立足于国家长远规划,一马援助金就是如此。

一马援助金在经济发展来看是应该取消的,但在大马已是政治问题,不是经济问题。一马援助金已经成为国阵捞取选票的工具了,但代价就是全民为政府的买票埋单。在政治考虑下,政府仍不顾財政提高一马援助金的额度。总额68亿令吉的一马援金,已经成为国家长期负担。

没自我改革能力

如果我国要建立一个可带给国家繁荣的財政预算案,就必须对国民適当减税,大幅度削减无谓的花费,回归財政盈余,以鼓励消费和生產,才能扩大经济发展。

不过,大马的困难在于国家预算案是朋党集团的乳酪。大马人民都明白,我国政府根本没有这政治决心,所以几乎不可能做到真正的改革。没有自我改革能力,腐败到极点的国家,財政盈余是和他们利益相违背的,这就是我国政府税收增加再多,钱依然还是不够用的。

没有对国家未来进行长远预算,这就是我国的预算案,也是大马的悲剧

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 02:54:07 PM »



National debt is RM655.7 billion, says Najib
Minderjeet Kaur | October 25, 2016
Saying it is now 53 per cent of GDP, Najib assures that the government will keep it below 55 per cent of GDP.
najib-economy-malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: The national debt stands at RM655.7 billion, or 53 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, as at June 2016, said Prime Minister Najib Razak today.
He said of this amount, 95.5 per cent or RM628.8 billion was domestic debt while 4.1 per cent or RM26.9 billion was offshore debt.
“We are considered a country with an average debt. The debt is to pay off deficit which is used to support the government’s operational budget.
“It is a productive loan to grow the economy and support the building of schools, roads, dams and hospitals. It helps the private sector to carry out various activities,” Najib explained during Ministerial Question Time in the Dewan Rakyat.

He was answering Noor Ehsanuddin Mohd Harun (BN-Kota Tinggi) who wanted to know the actual amount of both national debt and government guaranteed loans, and the reasons for these.
The government guaranteed loans as at June 2016 stand at RM180.9 billion or 14.7 per cent of the GDP. The guarantees were given for infrastructure projects and for higher education loans, said Najib.
He assured that the government was committed to ensuring that the national debt would not go higher than 55 per cent of GDP.
Noor Ehsanuddin then asked what steps had been taken to ensure the debt would not increase.
To this Najib replied that the government would focus on better management of loans and payments.
He stressed that the debt was used to grow the economy.
To an additional question by Tan Seng Giaw (DAP-Kepong), who asked what sort of instrument was used to secure the almost RM27 billion offshore debt, Najib said it was done through Sukuk which, he added, was subscribed by the international community

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2016, 06:35:10 AM »



Tuesday, 25 October 2016 | MYT 6:13 PM
Ringgit climbs, Fitch sees federal govt debt under 54% GDP
BY JOSEPH CHIN







 The ringgit was quoted at 4.1575 against the US dollar, the strongest since Oct 7
The ringgit was quoted at 4.1575 against the US dollar, the strongest since Oct 7
 
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit strengthened against the main currencies on Tuesday on investor confidence as Fitch Ratings sees the Malaysian Federal Government debt under 54% of gross domestic product (GDP) by year end as achievable.

The international ratings agency said  the 2017 federal budget points to further stability in public finances, despite another decline in revenue from the oil and gas sector.

“Malaysia is better placed than many net commodity exporters to cope with the lingering effects of the negative shift in its terms of trade,” it said.

At 6pm, the ringgit was quoted at 4.1575 to the US dollar – the strongest since Oct 7 – from the previous close of 4.1733.


At 5pm, the ringgit rallied against the pound sterling to 5.0877 – the strongest since November 2013 – from 5.1072. It was at 2.9901 against the Singapore dollar from 2.9999 and edged up against the euro to 4.5292 from 4.5455.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the recent weakness in Ringgit not supported by fundamentals and currency likely to retrace, especially when it becomes clear that Bank Negara Malaysia will not be cutting rates again this year.

It quoted Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief risk officer at Ebury Partners, in an e-mail interview. Ringgit’s decline was spurred by Malaysia’s surprise interest-rate cut in July which fuelled speculation about further easing at a time when bets for Fed tightening have risen.

Meanwhile, Fitch said the dramatic fall in commodity prices since mid-2014 has been the single most important factor behind the wave of 31 emerging-market sovereign rating downgrades made by Fitch in 2015-2016. Two-thirds of these downgraded sovereigns were heavily dependent on revenue from commodity exports.
 
Malaysia is the largest net exporter of petroleum and natural gas products in south-east Asia, and its finances have not been immune to the effects of the collapse in prices.

“The government estimates that oil & gas revenue will account for just 14.6% of total revenue in 2016, down from 30% just two years earlier. Dividends from the state-owned oil company, Petronas, are forecast to fall to RM13bil (US$3.1bil) in 2017 from RM16bil in 2016 and RM29bil in 2014.

“However, the fall in commodity revenue has not triggered a rating downgrade. The sovereign has kept its 'A-' rating, which has been on Stable Outlook since mid-2015,” it added.

Fitch pointed out GDP growth has remained a credit strength despite the negative terms-of-trade shock.

Fitch expects Malaysia's economy to grow by around 4.0% in 2016 and 2017, which is at the bottom of the government's 4.0%-5.0% target range for 2017 but above the median of Malaysia's rating peers.

“Capital expenditure has fallen in the oil & gas sector, particularly at Petronas, but the impact on GDP growth has been partly offset by increases in consumer spending. Household spending continues to be supported by a hike in public-sector salaries that took effect 1 July 2016, and will receive another boost from a 26% increase in transfers to lower-income households included in the 2017 budget,” it added.

On the fiscal deficit, Fitch said reasonably strong GDP growth has helped to stabilise Malaysia's federal government deficit and debt levels.

The introduction of a new Goods & Services Tax (GST) in April 2015 has also provided support to non-oil revenue.

The government expects the GST to generate RM40bil in 2017, up by 3.9% on the 2016 estimate, and forecasts a 3.4% increase in total federal government revenue in 2017.

The federal government deficit target for 2017 is set at 3% of GDP, which would be a slight fall from the government's estimate of 3.1% in 2016.

“Fitch expects the 2016 deficit to come in at 3.2% of GDP, but views the 2017 target as achievable.

“We believe it is unlikely that the target will be missed by enough to push public debt above the self-imposed ceiling of 55% of GDP. Fitch estimates that federal government debt will remain under 54% of GDP at end-2016.

“The impact of the 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) affair on government policy making, political stability, and fiscal finances has been limited so far, but it remains a source of uncertainty.

“Fitch views 1MDB as a close - if informal - contingent liability of the sovereign, and will be monitoring it for any discernible negative effects on Malaysia's fiscal position. Its unresolved issues also illustrate how governance standards remain a weakness in Malaysia's credit profile,” it said

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 08:57:47 AM »



政府与人民借债成瘾/南洋社论
332点看 2016年10月25日

南洋社论
已有多家全球组织警告称,中国迅速扩大的债务负担正在埋下金融危机的祸根。

国际清算银行(IBS)估计,中国债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比仍低于英国、日本和欧元区等地区,但由于累积债务的速度飞快,加上近年来中国一直是推动全球经济增长的引擎,无不让中国政府和全球深感担忧。


评论认为,中国应戒除“债务瘾”,而承认债务问题的严重性是戒除“债务瘾”的第一步。

回看大马,情况何尝不是一样。亚洲金融机构最新的调查数据显示,有45%的Y世代无法准时缴还贷款,70%持信用卡者每月只能缴还最低偿债额,导致债务倍增。

截至2015年杪,大马家债占国内生产总值比重达89.1%,为亚洲区比重最高国家之一,引发市场对其比印尼(16.8%)和新加坡(60.3%)等区域同侪更脆弱的意见。

同时,大马国债占国内生产总值截至2015年底已达54.5%,距离55%顶限仅一步之遥。家债国债之重可见一斑。

MIDF研究认为,国民债务繁重不一定会对经济带来风险,重点在于债务类别,而不是金额。

该行认为,债务分为资产增值和非资产增值两大类,而大马资产增值债务以房贷和证券购买为主,其余债务如汽车贷款、信用卡和个人贷款则归类为非资产增长债务。

“金融系统数据显示,在过去10年,我国家债累积以资产增值为主,并不是非资产增值贷款,其中最明显的为汽车贷款,其比重从2005年占总家债的31%减至2015年的不足21%。”

政府债务方面, 和美国不同的是,所谓55%债务顶限并不是强制性的,只是大马财政部自行设定的债务顶限,不受制于任何法令。

“若哪天政府要调高债务对GDP顶限超过55%,也无需通过国会批准,财政部便可自由调整该顶限。这意味着,我国再无举债能力及政府机关营运将被迫关门的情况并不存在。大众认为债务对GDP占比超过55%,理论上将导致政府需要宣布破产,这也是错误的迷思。”

但人民还是感到担心,不少人表示,55岁即马上提出全部公积金为上(策)。

历史上,几乎所有经历过如此迅速的债务累积的经济体,后来都遭遇了金融危机。无独有偶,中国和大马的经济学家都认为本国不会有问题,但当房市出现过热时,都祭出了打房和降低杠杆措施。

经济学家普遍认为全球经济短期内不可能出现转机,只会从低增长转向衰退,并成常态。

6月,世界银行调低了对全球经济增长的预测,表示今年经济增长只有2.4%,远低于在1月份做出的2.9%的预测。本月初,基于国内外因素夹击,世行也再度下修大马3年GDP预测。但至少我们可以看到的一点是,国债家债两高时,政府能够使用的财政政策已非常有限,而房市车市一样低迷。

除非我们承认问题的严重性,全球经济继续低迷下去时,我们既不可能独善其身,也不会看到明天。


 点赞 6赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp
相关课题:南洋社论
上则新闻
教育影响投票的因素/蔡维衍博士
下则新闻
怎及得“贪”字可怕/陈双

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2016, 06:30:19 AM »



龙门阵  2016年10月30日 | 作者:杨善勇 | 专栏:仅供参考
听老马的话

这个国家到底有钱没钱,到了市场,环顾四周,左查右看,应该就能明白了。一条大街,12间店,陆陆续续关了5间。比率几许,一算就知。这般行情,如此市道,说明什么,反映什么,朝廷当家的大掌柜,难道完全不知?

怎么说,面子总是撑得住一时,但是撑不住天长地久。何况,此时此刻,国际油价大跌,匯率不举,股市低迷,国库捉襟见肘;2017的年度预算,前后不足逾400亿。据此推算,配给发展452亿7000万令吉,恐怕都是借来寅吃卯粮的。

身为前首相马哈迪医生,显然也心知肚明。风尘僕僕巡迴全马大城小镇演讲,一再佐证財务拮据,国家没钱:「而且我们知道,政府部门收到总部信函,要求不要一掷千金,已经到这个情况了。」

「已经到这个情况了」,当然只是马哈迪医生台上的委婉用语;实际的底线,一旦参看天增岁月国增债的那些明细,一旦获悉官联公司至今已经动手裁掉6170人,国人自可领会国库的捉襟见肘,已经超乎我们的想像。


认识这点,就能明白何以青年及体育部长凯里认为,大马应该暂停举办成本过高,回酬有限的第一方程式赛车。凯里言外之意,关键还有一个:F1背后的金主自己也自身难保,如何大手笔地继续赞助呢?

听老马的话,別让他受伤,少许的白髮,过来人的说法;小朋友,你是否有很多问號:为什么別人的幣值,是一架大大的飞机,令吉的卖价,像一只旧旧的螺旋机?老马的苦心,不让你看见;国库的那些事,都在他的心里面。

年支700余亿的公僕薪酬,以每年增长69亿的速度倍增;到了33年后的2049年,酬劳公务员所需,接近3000亿。到了TN50,该怎办?张盛闻蓝瘦,张盛闻香菇,哇哇哇,说不出话

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2016, 08:05:05 PM »



主页 财经 财经新闻 6557億4500萬國債 等於每人負債逾2萬
财经
6557億4500萬國債 等於每人負債逾2萬
 1938点阅   2016年11月01日
獨家報導:林慧蓮

(吉隆坡1日訊)根據2017年財政預算案數據,截至今年6月底數據,中央政府債務達6557億4500萬令吉,佔國內生產總值的53.2%;換句話說,若除以2016年預估的3170萬人口,等同于我國每人平均都揹負著2萬686令吉的國家債務。

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2016, 04:46:50 PM »



2016-11-06 15:28
末沙布:“马或欠债逾1700亿”
诚信党主席莫哈末沙布说,国阵政府这厢不断辱骂大马华人,但那厢却把大马“卖”给了中国,甚至可能导致大马欠下中国超过1700亿令吉的债务。
(森美兰‧芙蓉6日讯)诚信党主席莫哈末沙布说,国阵政府这厢不断辱骂大马华人,但那厢却把大马“卖”给了中国,甚至可能导致大马欠下中国超过1700亿令吉的债务。

广告

他表示,只要有能力的都能来马投资,可矛盾的是,政府利用手段打压国内华人,又不断宣扬华人要推倒政府,执政大马,转个头却又与中国密切来往,签署商业交易。

他指出,当中资公司进驻大马发展或承包工程或进行其他商业活动,大小货源和原料都从中国进口时,本地小商家就只能旁看,无法享有任何福利,届时人民的负担相信会更沉重。

他於昨晚出席净选盟5.0森州区团队在晏斗亿嘉镇,展开首场的造势演讲上也说,大马是世俗国,因此必须根据宪法和民规定,通过选举选出最适合的执政者,人民有权利以集会表达自己的心声,只要执法部队才有权利阻止集会进行,其他人一概没有权利。

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.11.06

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2016, 06:30:05 AM »



失业率虽涨家债仍稳定
个人贷款呆账走高仍受控
260点看 2016年11月17日

(吉隆坡17日讯)虽然失业率上升可能助长银行领域的呆账(NPL)恶化,不过,大马的家庭债务呆账依然稳定,只有个人贷款呆账持续走高,但仍属可控制范围。


兴业研究分析员指:“截至9月杪,家庭债务呆账率占总贷款的1.1%,与去年同期相似。不过,同期个人贷款呆账则从去年的1.3%攀升至2.1%,显示失业率导致个人贷款承受压力。不过这是预料之内,也仍在可控制水平内。”

相比之下,用于购买债券、住宅和非住宅产业、汽车及其他固定资产的呆账,仍处在低于1%的水平。

分析员称,政府给予的援助和低利率,缓冲了失业率带来的打击。


虽然失业率上升,商业环境充满挑战,但没有大量裁员。同样的,公务员人口也没有大量缩减,出口领域也因令吉贬值而表现不错。

此外,给予B40阶级的安全网,也为借贷者提供了一些喘息的空间。国家银行也于2012年,实施宏观谨慎措施,有效地控制家庭呆账水平的涨势。

分析员指出,接下来,低利率环境和经济持续增长,可确保呆账不剧增。但是,若利率水平意外上涨,呆账率就可能会恶化。


经济暗淡 失业率或升

分析员指出,失业率增加固然是经济放缓的结果,但他认为这个情况仍属可控制范围,因为标普(S&P)和惠誉(Fitch)重新肯定了大马金融机构的评级。

虽然呆账率近期有所上升,但截至9月杪的1.7%水平,仍接近去年4月的1.57%记录低位。

同时,大马呆账率也是本区域最低之一,比泰国、印尼和菲律宾来得低。大马仅次于新加坡,属于本区域第二低,新加坡近期也出现呆账率上升的现象。

由于大马经济放缓,自2014年杪起,国内失业率节节上升,今年上半年平均3.4%,去年同期是3.2%,2014年则是2.8%。

鉴于大马经济展望依然暗淡,分析员认为,失业率可能会持续增加,在今年下半年会达到平均3.5%,明年更会上升至3.6%。



 点赞 0赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp
相关课题:呆账贷款
上则新闻
马股全天走跌
闭市跌0.86点
下则新闻
持股态度逆转
沙地富豪售高价股

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2016, 07:10:32 AM »



2016-11-19 10:24
失业率恶化.呆账风险升
经济学家忧虑,在裁员风及就业市场僧多粥少之下,失业率料持续恶化,将对大马银行业的呆账带来压力。
(吉隆坡18日讯)大马失业率自2014年后期开始抬头,至今升势未停歇,经济学家忧虑,在裁员风及就业市场僧多粥少之下,失业率料持续恶化,将对大马银行业的呆账带来压力。

广告

 
裁员风不息

兴业研究经济学家表示,外围经济面临困境,以致部份领域进行改革,进而裁员,将令失业人数不断走高。

兴业说,失业率向来与呆账率息息相关。按1998至2016年9月为止,失业率与呆账率的关联度为0.9。失业率高企之时,人民缺乏收入,进而导致债务高企。

兴业补充,当失业率扬升1%,呆账率则走高至2.7%。

截至2015年,大马储蓄对比经济成长也走低至32.7%,1998年,大马储蓄占经济成长为48.7%。

兴业甚为忧虑,因上述情况不寻常,在失业率走高之下,若失业人士缺乏存款,将会陷入财务困难的状况,届时势必抬拉呆账率(NPL),并会出现拖欠贷款或资产拍卖的情景出现。

广告

兴业补充,尽管失业率走高,但大马的呆账率没有太明显增加,目前仍处于可管理水平。

截至9月为止,大马呆账率为1.7%,而史上最低的呆账率为1.57%。

以2015年区域国家呆账率为对比,大马呆账率仍偏低,仅逊于新加坡。



广告

EPF缴交成长率不断缩减

除此以外,失业率走高及薪资涨幅低,也反映在公积金(EPF)缴交额的成长率不断缩减。

兴业表示,由于企业营运困难,不少公司除了裁员以外,亦减少花红及调薪,并导致雇员对公积金局贡献成长率下滑。

2016年1至7月,公积金缴交额的成长率也收窄至2.1%,相比2015同期成长率为5.2%,以及2014年同期共增长6.4%。这显示了工资成长放缓,因商业状况低迷,迫使企业裁减人手和减少花红和薪资。

根据ECA国际调查机构显示,2017年大马薪资预期可增加2%。

该机构亚洲区董事李泉(译音)表示,大马低失业率压制了薪资上涨的空间,李泉也指出,对比其他东盟国家,大马人力成本高,以致失去了一些外资。

失业率明年恐攀3.7%

兴业研究表示,今年上半年大马平均失业率为3.4%,预期下半年升至3.5%,以及明年失业率进一步走高至3.7%。

油价自崩盘以来,不少油气公司在进行结构性调整,至今油气领域尚未脱离颓势,以致部份油气公司采取裁员措施,进而拖累银行领域。

银行领域目前也在进行电子化,以简化工作程序及提高营运效率。

上述两大领域在成本撙节下,裁退不少员工。今年第二季,来自制造业、农业及建筑业的工作空缺率从26.9%扩大至67.8%,兴业归咎于经济成长放缓及大宗商品价格低靡之故。

此外,截至10月为止,政府相关公司(GLC)共裁退6170名员工,主要是来自航空、制药、油气及银行业。

裁员除了对现有员工造成冲击,每年大学毕业生不断增加,兴业说,这令新就业机会增幅低于毕业生的增速。

2012至2015年,20至24岁的毕业生的失业率占整体失业率分别报40.6%、39.5%、42.5%及42.1%。

大马9月失业率企于3.5%,与上个月持平,失业人数报51万26人,按年跌0.5%和按月增4.5%。

根据统计局数据显示,9月份劳动力按月下跌0.4%和按年增0.8%,报1476万人,而就业人口共1429万9600人,按月跌0.4%和按年增0.7%。



文章来源:
星洲日报/财经 ‧ 报道:谢汪潮 ‧ 2016.11.19

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2016, 06:20:36 PM »



Edge Weekly
Cover Story: Debt collection becoming increasingly difficult
By Esther Lee / The Edge Malaysia   | November 20, 2016 : 6:00 PM MYT   
Printer-friendly versionSend by emailPDF version
Translated by Google Translator:
Select Language​▼
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on November 7 - 13, 2016.
 

BUSINESS at money-lending agencies has never been better with agents receiving endless calls from potential customers. However, many of these agencies lament that debt collection has become increasingly difficult — clearly not a good time to be in the business.

“In my 20 years of experience, debt collection has never been this bad. And I believe the problem will only get worse in the future,” a licensed moneylender, who wants to be known only as Son, tells The Edge.

[X] CLOSE
Advertisement

0:34
/ 0:34



“Customers still pay their loan instalments but the problem is that they can’t afford to pay the amount agreed upon. Let’s assume the interest is RM100 per month for a 20-year loan. Today, customers can only afford to pay me RM70 because of the rising cost of living.”

Son says he has had to lower the monthly payments of some customers to ensure that they can afford to repay their debt. “Sometimes, we have to accept a lower amount to keep the loan going, so at least it is not non-performing.”

The CEO of a debt collection agency, whose clients are commercial banks, telecommunications companies and utility firms, blames the economic slowdown for poor debt collection. Some of debtors may have lost their jobs or their salaries may have remained unchanged while the prices of goods have shot up, he says.

“We have definitely received more accounts to handle. We’ve seen this over the last few months. I can have a lot of accounts but if people can’t pay, they just can’t. It has definitely got tougher for us to collect from debtors. So far, it has been manageable but we don’t know about next year because we believe the economic situation will get worse,” he remarks.

What is of concern is that not just Malaysian households are defaulting on debts but corporations as well.

Frankie Poon, a director at Tish & Matheson GCS, a global corporate debt recovery firm in Malaysia and Singapore, says, “This year, we’re seeing increased business volume but the success rate of recovery is lower because more companies are going into bankruptcy protection. We foresee more bankruptcies in the coming months for sure.”

According to Yeah Kim Leng, Professor of Economics at Sunway University Business School, poor debt collection could be a sign that the economy is in financial distress but it all depends on the severity of the situation. Besides, he says, there has only been anecdotal evidence.

“Indicators in the banking sector show that loan delinquencies, while slightly higher, are still manageable. Broadly speaking, this means there is no systemic risk to the economy,” he adds.

Official data may not capture transactions in the money-lending industry but the lenders can attest to having been approached by more borrowers since the banking sector tightened its regulations.

Moneylenders also reveal that debt collection started getting tougher around the time the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented on April 1 last year.

If more consumers have turned to moneylenders for loans instead of banks, shouldn’t debt collection problems be an indicator of growing stress in many Malaysian households grappling with mortgages, car loans, credit card debt and personal loans?

At present, Malaysia’s household debt is hovering at close to 90% of gross domestic product — one of the highest levels in Southeast Asia.

The last time the country experienced poor debt collection, which eventually led to a serious non-performing-loan problem, was during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Nevertheless, the circumstances today are vastly different from that period, observes Yeah. “At the time, banks overextended credit and the distress was mainly in corporate lending. Today, what we are seeing is a high level of indebtedness among households.”

He opines that retrenchments seen in recent times, coupled with the rising cost of living and slow income increase, have contributed to the severity of household indebtedness.

While debt collection has become more challenging for many lenders, a leading used-motor vehicle hire-purchase financier has not encountered such problems.

“There has not been any deterioration in collection on a year-to-year basis. We are a bit surprised by our situation as we were expecting to see some impact on our numbers. This is because many people we talk to tell us that borrowers are not paying up.

“The worst time for us was right after the implementation of GST, which was also around the time there was a rationalisation of subsidies.”

Perhaps, consumers would rather not pay their electricity and telephone bills for a few months or not service their smaller loans than have their vehicles repossessed

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2016, 05:09:59 PM »



2016-12-11 11:14
陈定远·也谈马来西亚的债情
据国家银行最新数据,截至今年第三季度,马来西亚国债总额为6435.99亿令吉,其中外债为2321.63亿令吉,短期外债为35亿令吉,中长期外债为2286.63亿令吉;内债总额为4114.36亿令吉,其中短期内债为10亿令吉,中长期内债为4104.36亿令吉。从以上官方数字来看,高盛所说的马来西亚外汇储备只勉强足够偿还短期外债,也并非属实,因为马来西亚的外汇储备是大于其短期外债的。
去年,根据报章报道,财政部副部长蔡智勇曾说,马来西亚将保证其外债不会超过350亿令吉,而当年3月,马来西亚的外债仅仅为175亿令吉,远远低于其上限350亿令吉。这个报道显然是虚假的,因为报道中的外债总额太低。

广告

另外,就在去年8月,又有报道说,国际投资银行高盛就曾警告,因为马来西亚的外汇储备只勉强足够偿还短期外债,而且马来西亚外债与国内生产总值的比例超过60%,居亚洲国家之冠,情况与1997年爆发亚洲金融风暴之前印尼与菲律宾的情况相当,换句话说,高盛指出,马来西亚的外债情况告急。这是否属实呢?

一个国家政府所借的债务称为国债,它包括有外债和内债,外债是指一国向外国个人或机构所借的贷款总额,内债则是一国向国内个人或机构所借的贷款总额。根据国家银行最新数据,截至今年第三季度,马来西亚国债总额为6435.99亿令吉,其中外债为2321.63亿令吉,短期外债为35亿令吉,中长期外债为2286.63亿令吉;内债总额为4114.36亿令吉,其中短期内债为10亿令吉,中长期内债为4104.36亿令吉。从以上官方数字来看,高盛所说的马来西亚外汇储备只勉强足够偿还短期外债,也并非属实,因为马来西亚的外汇储备是大于其短期外债的。

因为内债是向国人借的钱,而且举债的货币单位是令吉,清还债务一般上问题不大,问题较大的是清还外债和外资逃离的问题。外债总额中,以令吉为货币单位的占比最大,计91.21%,共2117.59亿令吉,其次为美元,占比5.92%,第三是日元,占比2.70%。根据国家银行的数据,截至同一时期的国内生产总值(GDP)为3120.35亿令吉,按此数据计算,外债总额与国内生产总值的比例为74.40%(2016年9月)。

根据国家银行向国会提呈的《2015年国家银行年度报告》,马来西亚2015年的外债达到8337亿令吉(此数字显然有误,国家银行的数字为6305.4亿令吉),或等于该年国内生产总值的72.1%。截至今年9月,这个比率再增加到74.4%,而不是最近有篇文章所说的那样,该篇文章引用的数字说,2015年6月马来西亚国债等于国内生产总值的54.2%,2016年6月这个比例降至53.2%,这个比例显然是错误的,国债是内债和外债的总和,既然外债已经超过70%,那么,国债的比例应该更高才是。按照国家银行的数据来计算,今年9月,国债(内债加外债)等于国内生产总值的200%,而不是大约53%而已,因为国债总额已达6335.99亿令吉,而国内生产总值只是3120.35亿令吉。

不过,财政部曾经披露,2013年6月,联邦政府的国债为5193亿令吉,为国内生产总值的53%;另外,蔡智勇也曾在国会披露,2015年3月,国债总额为5968亿令吉,为国内生产总值的52.1%。两者各算出来的国债比例,相差如此之大,究竟是财政部的数字正确,还是国家银行的数字正确?估计是报章报道错误,因为报章也曾报道过财政部发布过的数字和国家银行发布的数字是相同的。

外债比例达到70%以上,算高还是不算高?答案是相对的,相对于一个国家的治理及其经济的管理。美国的外债,全球排名第一,而且遥遥领先,是其他国家望尘莫及的,其2015年的外债总额为18万7723亿美元,等于排名第二的法国的32倍强。新加坡全球排名第十五,马来西亚排名第三十,新加坡的外债也大于马来西亚,总额为1万2560亿美元,是马来西亚的2308亿美元外债的5.44倍。新加坡外债之所以能够那么高,人们又不质疑,是因为长期以来国家治理严格,经济管理有效,而美国之所以能够借到海量的外债,是因为长期以来美元在全世界享有的霸权,让她成为全世界政治经济军事第一大国,40年来得以长期享受双赤字,即政府财政赤字和贸易赤字。

广告

马来西亚的外债中,以令吉为货币单位的外债占了九成以上,这些都是外国人或外国机构,购买了马来西亚政府发行的令吉债券而形成的外债。虽然偿还这些令吉外债,没有了因为马币贬值而造成偿债成本的大幅增加,使到外债的汇率风险极小化,但是这些令吉外债的资金撤离,却是造成马币贬值的一个重要因素。

2014年下半年,金融大鳄押注了美元,制造了美元利率即将上升的舆论假象,以便达到让美元升值的目的,导致许多新兴国家包括马来西亚的外资撤离,去追逐美元。

当时,马来西亚的外资持有人,抛售马来西亚股票和令吉债券,将所取得的大量令吉兑换成美元,使到外汇市场上令吉的供给以及对美元的需求大增,结果是令吉大贬,马来西亚的外汇储备也迅速跌破了1000亿美元的水平。

倘若外债的货币单位为美元,会让马来西亚偿还外债的负担更加沉重。两年多以来,美元兑令吉增值了约38%,以前借得1美元只换到3.2令吉,如今却要4.42令吉才能偿还1美元的债务,还要外加利息,偿还外币外债的负担陡然大增,太沉重了,让国家承受不了。

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·中国厦门大学嘉庚学院教授·2016.12.11

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #30 on: December 18, 2016, 08:43:52 PM »



名家  2016年12月18日 | 作者:孙和声 | 专栏:狂生噪语
政府財政趋势与困境

政府財政趋势与困境

无债不成经济,当前世界经济的一个基本特征是,公私部门债务高位积累,风险剧增,可吊诡的是,尽管债务高位积累,可这个债务驱动的经济,又缺乏动力;显见,举债推动经济增长,创造就业的方法,也已到尽头。不仅如此,还埋下了引发金融与债务危机的种子。

就政府债务而言,在2015年,发达经济体的平均政府总债务的水平,高达国內生產总值(GDP)的104%!若以净债务(NetDebt)计算,也高达71%。至于新兴经济体,总债务水平高达44%;其中,大马高达54%,高于新兴经济体的平均水平。另外,低收入发展中国家,则居于约35%水平。引人深思的是,发展程度越高的国家,其总债务水平越高,是个坏榜样。其中一个主因是,越发达民主的经济体,其政客越趋向討好选民,也就是趋向討好而不是求好。这也是一个悖论。

油气收入逐步上升

按照欧盟的规矩,一个年度预算案的赤字,不应超过GDP的3%,而积累的总债务也不应超过GDP的60%,可多数发达经济体,均做不到这一点,如在2015年,美国的总债务占GDP的104%,日本是245%,意大利133%,法国97%,希腊是197%,即便是德国,也高达70%。可见,公债高居不下是个趋势。


在大马,就联邦政府(不包括广义的公共部门,如法定机构,政联公司,州与地方政府等)言,在1970年代,总债务占GDP的水平,大体上是逾40%,进入1980年代,则是逾80%,在1986与87年,更高达103与101%!后因大搞私营化,进入1990年代后,方逐步下降;在1993-96年度预算案,还出现小盈余,惟整体债务依然是40-50%。进入21世纪后,则又从2000年的35%,逐步上升到2005年的42%,2010年的49%,2015年的54%。这几年,也停留在这个水平。

在21世纪前10多年,油气收入在总收入的占比也逐步上升,在2010-2013年甚至占了总收入的约35%;只是,从2014年始,由于油价大跌,占比便逐步下跌到2014年的30%、2015年的约21%,与2016年的约15%。油气收入大跌,支出又不断增加,逼使政府不得不另谋財源,这就加速了增值税(Value-Added Tax)的出台。

2015年出台的增值源,大马称为物品与服务税(GST),也称消费税。不过,在欧洲与中国,消费税是指那些不鼓励人民消费的额外税,如烟酒税。在大马,也有人称这类税为罪恶税。GST能否真的解决政府的財政问题?我想,它顶多是治標而不能治本,而且GST也有弊端,如钝化经济增长与具有劫贫济富的累退税特性(Regressive Tax)。

GST钝化增长

伸言之,从效果、公平与可持续的角度看,GST並不是解决问题的良方。首先,从经济增长的角度看,增长的动力来源有3个,即投资、消费与净出口。在1970-80年代,大马的增长动力,主要来自公共投资,惟也剧增了公共债务;在1987-1997年这期间,动力来自投资与净出口;可自1997-98年金融货幣危机后,增长动力已转向內需,也就是国內消费。

做为一种反周期的刺激手段,內需有其短时期的作用,惟因为自1998年迄今,都靠內需,久而久之,这个內需政策便失去其效用;因为,它加剧了公共与私人债务,特別是家庭债务。目前,我国家债已升到GDP的89%,可能是全亚洲最高,比发达经济体如日台韩新港还高。易言之,內需也走到內虚的地步,再催谷下去,隨时会引发危机。在全球经济与贸易放缓的条件下,其危机度更令人担心。

在这种內忧外患的情况下,出台GST只会钝化增长,使內需不能再做为振兴之策,可投资与净出口也同样不济,三个动力均失效。可以预见,大马经济的增长前景颇为有限。因为,余下的內需本已用老了,加上GST的钝化作用,市场更是加剧低迷。

从公平的角度看,GST会增加有钱人的储蓄,但却未必会增加投资。与此同时,中下层的消费力又受到打击。只能说,GST来得不是时候。从时机上言,GST应在经济处于上升阶段,特別是过热时出台,才是良机;因为,它会使经济降温,抑制通货膨胀。易言之,从公平税收与效益的角度看,GST是下策。

那政府又应从何处找钱?我想,最立竿见影的方法便是严厉打贪与透明化,公平化政府採购。若认真执行,这有可能为政府一年省下150亿令吉。这150亿足以抵消油气的收入损失,或GST的收入。

在2014年,政府收入中,有110亿与67亿个別来自销售税与服务税(SST)。若延续SST,到了2017年可能会收到约200亿。实施GST,到了2017年,预计也只是收到约400亿;也就是,只比SST增加约200亿,只要认真打贪,不就填补了。

不应从民间拿走財富

从长远来看,联邦政府財政的困境,其实在于纳税人数与数额太低,在2016-17年,个人所得税仅占总收入的约13%。在发达国如美国,在2012年,联邦政府收入中,个人所得税占了47%,公司税9.6%与社保税34%。大马则是公司税31%,个人税13%,GST预计17.5%,非税收入约17%。

可见,只有提高个人税的份额,才是可靠的出路。只是,这是个长期工程,由于大马面对三低,即低生產力、低技能与低增值经济活动的困境,不解决这三低,也无法提高个人税。因此,政府才从GST下手,可GST又是双面刃,有打击增长与劫贫济富的负作用。

此外,这个新税源,也可能起著资源的诅咒(Resource Curse)的不良作用,使政府认为,有了新税源,就不必认真去搞必要的改革。其实,政府若无能腐败,是不应把財富从民间转入政府手中的。若政府高效廉洁,而不是腐败无能,人民缴税也会缴得较安心

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2016, 03:49:15 PM »



财经
政府欠債逾1600億 敦馬:如何還?
 163点阅   2016年12月19日 1MDB債券陷違約, 公賬會1MDB調查報告, 查1MDB, 首相否認收1MDB資金
qian 161219 b1 noreszie

前首相敦馬哈迪說,令吉貶值,我國政府依舊在東海岸鐵道計劃向中國公司融資550億令吉,並由後者借出420億令吉給予一馬發展公司,而最近馬新更簽署協議,欲興建耗資500億令吉的隆新高鐵計劃等,他質問:政府要如何攤還這些債務?



“政府總共需要承擔超過1600億令吉債務,但政府沒有錢,這是否意味政府繼續欠債?或者提高國內徵稅率和消費稅?這些都會造成人民生活成本負擔。所以,我們要詢問政府,債台高築的目的究竟是什麼”

他認為,若政府要借貸,必須有能力攤還,否則這將為國家製造問題。

馬哈迪今日在部落格撰文時,也以東海岸鐵道計劃為例,中國政府願意就此計劃,融資550億令吉給政府,但只是讓承包這項計劃的外國公司受惠,況且在施工過程中,讓馬幣外流。

他說,我國政府屆時所攤還的貸款,都會回流至中國公司。

此外,馬哈迪質疑,政府在興建東海岸鐵道后,若與其他交通工具比較,本地人民是否有能力承擔有關火車票的費用?

他說,許多吉蘭丹子民都認為,通過廉價機票乘搭飛機回鄉,更划算和節省時間。


Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #32 on: December 28, 2016, 08:16:45 PM »



津巴布韦借钱无法还
幼象狮子赠中国抵债
430点看 2016年12月28日
 报道指津巴布韦第一夫人格蕾丝‧穆加贝,近日将大批野生动物送给中国抵债。(网上资料图片)
报道指津巴布韦第一夫人格蕾丝‧穆加贝,近日将大批野生动物送给中国抵债。(网上资料图片)

(综合报道)非洲国家津巴布韦第一夫人格蕾丝穆加贝,据报近日将幼象、狮子等野生动物转赠中国,以偿还为刚果民主共和国购买军队制服所欠的款项,据指该批动物已运抵广州。


津巴布韦相关官员对此辩称,将大象送往国外可以减轻国家公园“过于沉重”的负担。有保育人士则担心小象会沦为象牙交易的牺牲品。另有不少中国网民直斥中国成为转卖野生动物的帮凶。

据英国传媒报道,该批转送中国的野生动物包括35头幼象、8只狮子、12只土狼及1只长颈鹿,它们被运上一架波音747货机,途经莫斯科及上海,最终运抵位于广州长隆野生动物园。

运送大象出国可减负担

据知情人士透露,格蕾丝是为了帮刚果民主共和国军方购买军靴、军服等用品,而欠下中国债务,而运往中国的野生动物就是用来抵债。

津巴布韦负责野生动物的官员对此表示,抓捕大象并将其运送至国外,能减国家公园“过于沉重”的负担。惟当地的野生动物专家则指出,强迫幼象与象群分离是“残酷的疯狂举动”。

中国网民大骂“荒谬”

虽然出口大象在津巴布韦是合法的,但仍引来各方争议。不少动保人士炮轰,此举是“合法却不道德”,因为抓捕野生大象会破坏象群的社会结构,而且在抓捕及运送过程,大象的死亡率极高。

保育人士又称,目前一头大象约价值4万至6万美元(约18万至27万令吉),担忧该批小象会沦为象牙交易的牺牲品。

不少中国网民都批评以赠送野生动物来抵债的行为“荒谬”,又指中国成为转卖动物的帮凶,“可怜的动物,成了还债的对象”、“这算是贩卖动物吗?”、“买卖动物有法可依吗?”


 点赞 0赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2017, 06:59:15 AM »



国內  2017年01月13日
家庭债务佔生產值88.9% 破產案恐上升

家庭债务佔生產值88.9% 破產案恐上升

(吉隆坡13日讯) 第二財长拿督佐哈里指出,截至2016年6月,大马家庭债务共佔了国內生產总值的88.9%,恐將导致我国破產案例再度上升。

他今日在「2017年金融嘉年华」上致词时表示,2015年的破產案例中,有28%是个人贷款所致。

他说,我国仍有许多人士缺乏理財知识,同时也不懂得如何进行財务规划。

「举个例子,国家银行的报告指出,多达80%的国人还未准备好面对退席后的生活,近50%的退休人士在退休5年后就將退休金花光。」


询及我国將如何改善及降低破產案例,他称,政府一直都在监督这个情况。

「我们当然希望可以尽快降低家庭债务率,但最重要的是,国人必须时刻保持谨慎,避免受骗,才不会欠下更多债务。」

佐哈里指出,在这个资讯发达的年代,国人没有找不到財务相关资讯的藉口,而今日的金融嘉年华,就是国人諮询財务管理的最佳时机。

此外,他也呼吁国人做个精明的消费者,秉持良好的消费习惯,只购买需要的物品,为將来作打算。

「消费人必须捍卫自己的权利,爭取自己的权益,拒绝签署有欠公平的財务合约。」

点击看全文

 
相关新闻
去年金融诈骗案增加50%
宗教团体收入 只能用在信仰慈善
修车业索偿不公 国行擬完善准则
副財长:令吉会回到4.10
依尔万:1MDB已委任国际著名审计公司
「大马经济差是负面认知」
政府发放RM1200一马援助金 已是最高限额
財政部將邀宗教团体谈征税
出口商减少兑换 令吉回流率仅1%
服务业主导 大马不再靠原產品
精选新闻
任天堂公佈新资讯 Switch 3月3日正式开卖任天堂公佈新资讯 Switch 3月3日正式开卖
越南阿公44年没睡觉! 拼命工作 身体仍健康越南阿公44年没睡觉! 拼命工作 身体仍健康
阿邦佐哈里任砂首长 「6666」成为「红字」阿邦佐哈里任砂首长 「6666」成为「红字」
田蕊妮活得自在 卸下不愉快章节田蕊妮活

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2017, 08:22:37 PM »



Monday, 13 February 2017
Household debt may increase, warn economists
BY DALJIT DHESI

 
Its sustainability may be difficult due to new financing schemes

PETALING JAYA: The high level of household debt in the country is far from over and has room to creep up although the latest data by Bank Negara showed slower growth in household loans last year.

ADVERTISING

inRead invented by Teads

Economists and analysts told StarBiz that although the household debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio may see improvement for 2016 when the official figure is out next month, its sustainability for further improvement over the next few years could be tough.

They agreed that apart from external headwinds and the state of the economy, home buyers scheme like the 1Malaysia People’s Housing Programme (PR1MA), higher loan limits for civil servants under Budget 2017 and higher inflation could raise household debt.

RAM Ratings co-head of financial institution ratings Wong Yin Ching said there may not be a sustained reduction in the household debt-to-GDP ratio in the coming years, given the new and more accessible end-financing schemes for homebuyers under PR1MA.

“Increased loan limits for civil servants to purchase homes, motorcycles and computers/smartphones were also introduced by the government in Budget 2017. Overall, we expect the household debt-to-GDP ratio to be sticky at around current levels,” adds Wong.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/13/household-debt-may-increase-warn-economists/~/media/766cbba7dc99464182e8d674f214834d.ashx?h=520&w=600



“Malaysia’s household debt levels have remained elevated for some time, given the country’s young demographics – 25 to 39 years old, an asset-accumulating class – make up a sizeable 26% of the population and their numbers are growing faster than the overall population growth.

“After seven consecutive years of rising household debt to GDP, the ratio is estimated to have eased marginally from 89.1% as at end-2015 to around 88.5% as at end-2016. Weaker consumer sentiment and Bank Negara’s macro prudential measures have moderated household debt growth,’’ Wong noted.

Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd chief economist Manokaran Mottain said the importance should be stressed on the sustainability of household debt. If consumers are unable to pay their debt, yet it increasingly grows every year, then this would be a point of concern, he said.

“There are several factors which could act as catalysts for growth in household debt and debt service ability. Stronger private consumption contributes to higher growth in credit. However, since consumer sentiments are still in bearish territory, it is unlikely for a rapid increase in private consumption.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/13/household-debt-may-increase-warn-economists/~/media/777ab07ec3ed4e7f8220d09e7247e4eb.ashx?h=530&w=400

Nor Zahidi: ‘Barring any economic shock, we do not think that household debt-to-GDP ratio will rise significantly in the near term.’
Nor Zahidi: ‘Barring any economic shock, we do not think that household debt-to-GDP ratio will rise significantly in the near term.’
“Higher inflation in 2017 could be a risk to debt service ability, as higher inflation adds to the cost of borrowing. Finally, if the denominator in the equation that is GDP growth comes below the pace of household loans expansion, then household debt to GDP ratio could be steady or even rise.

“We are of the view that the ratio would stay there for a while, before a meaningful decline is expected to occur,’’ Manokaran said.

All in all, he said he expected household debt-to-GDP ratio to remain steady at around 89% for 2016.

Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias told StarBiz that while household loan growth had slowed in recent months, the household debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain elevated over the near term, unless nominal GDP growth accelerates sharply, which is highly unlikely at this juncture.

“Under our base case scenario, with nominal GDP growth of around 5%-6%, household debt-to-GDP ratio will be in the range of 85%-90% of GDP in 2017 (2015: 89.1%).

“Barring any economic shock, we do not think that household debt-to-GDP ratio will rise significantly in the near term as banks will continue to maintain stringent credit assessment.

“With real GDP growth expected to be around 4% this year, we do not foresee any surprises in household debt statistics in the near term,’’ Zahidi said.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service viewed the slowdown in household loans, which has been a concern since 2015, as positive towards enhancing the asset quality of Malaysian banks and moderating household debt levels.

Towards this end, its vice-president and senior analyst Simon Chen said the continued deceleration of household loan growth would help stabilise the high household leverage situation in Malaysia, which is among the highest in Asia.

He expected household debt-to-GDP ratio for 2016 to moderate from the 89% level recorded at end-2015.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/13/household-debt-may-increase-warn-economists/~/media/9c4dab5f4d834748a053c8d53ed3d752.ashx?h=626&w=400

Wong: ‘Overall, we expect the household debt-to-GDP ratio to be sticky at around current levels.’
Wong: 'Overall, we expect the household debt-to-GDP ratio to be sticky at around current levels.'
On the asset quality of banks, Wong said the asset-quality indicators for household loans have remained benign, with the gross impaired-loan ratio steady at 1.1% as at end-2016.

While weakening in household loan quality is anticipated (with troubled unsecured consumer loans already ticking upwards), she said the deterioration is not expected to be significant, given still-accommodative interest rates and contained unemployment conditions.

Banks have also generally maintained prudent underwriting standards for the household sector, she noted.

As for the growth of household loans this year, OCBC Bank (M) Bhd head of secured lending Thoo Mee Ling expected it to remain flattish this year, due mainly by the ongoing challenging economic and financial circumstances.

Tighter lending requirements and escalating cost of living would work in tandem to somewhat suppress consumers’ discretionary spending, hence subduing demand for loans, she said.

“On the property front, while the majority of investors are still adopting a wait-and-see approach, there remains demand due to population growth as new buyers enter the property market.

“Consequently, demand will tend to go towards the affordable segment and sub-sale landed properties where prices are expected to hold,’’ Thoo said.

CIMB Investment Bank senior banking analyst Winson Ng said he expected to see weaker residential mortgages growth this year.

He premised this on the expected soft property market as well as the waning “pipeline” for property loans from those approved in the past two to three years.

As such, Ng said household loan growth would continue to decelerate from 5.3% in 2016 to around 5% in 2017.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/13/household-debt-may-increase-warn-economists/~/media/2b5ea59e9ac7402f9a0c62cd3e6e1929.ashx?h=327&w=400

Manokaran: ‘Since consumer sentiments are still in bearish territory, it is unlikely for a rapid increase in private consumption.’
Manokaran: 'Since consumer sentiments still in bearish territory, it is unlikely for a rapid increase in private consumption.'
“In addition, due to the lack of catalysts, weak consumer sentiment and higher cost of living, the growth for other household loans – auto loans, credit cards and personal loans – would also remain lacklustre in 2017, probably at mid-to-low single-digit rates.

“Assuming headline GDP growth maintains its pace, the household debt-to-GDP metric could stabilise or decline,’’ he added.

Based on the latest statistics, loan growth was stable at 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) at end-December 2016, on par with the level at end-November 2016.

By segment, the expansion in business loans picked up from 4.6% y-o-y at end-November 2016 to 5% y-o-y at end-Dec 2016, but this was offset by the deceleration in the growth in household loans from 5.4% y-o-y at end-Nov 2016 to 5.3% y-o-y at end-December 2016.

Manokaran said he expected consumer sentiment to remain relatively soft as the cost of living remained elevated but there are chances of turning around in 2017.

Therefore, the base case outlook for household loans growth and consumption would maintain at 2016 level with cautious optimism for upside growth, he added


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/13/household-debt-may-increase-warn-economists/#oa73oZSLVA1Mc9Jb.99

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #35 on: February 23, 2017, 03:17:29 PM »



【独家】李志亮:日益严重不健康
国行限信用卡抑制家债
1143点看 2017年2月23日
独家专访:陈协运

李志亮:生活水平越来越高,政府将推出各项政策协助人民。

(吉隆坡22日讯)财政部副部长拿督李志亮对于国人家庭债务及个人举债问题日益严重的现象感到担忧,他指这不是健康现象。


他说,作为防范措施,国家银行已通过推动限制信用卡、车贷期限等,来抑制家债进一步恶化,银行也只会批准符合资格的信用卡申请者。

他说,财政部认为,大马人应有更良好的理财方式。

“马来西亚家庭债务占最高,占GDP的89.1%(2016年9月收窄至88.7%),而拖欠债务的原因有很多,比如房屋、汽车贷款及卡债等,也包含其他个人债务。”

教育人民理财

李志亮接受《南洋商报》专访说,教育人民管理财务、控制消费习惯,将是把家债收窄的关键。

他说,国行旗下的信贷咨询与债务管理机构(AKPK)推出消费者教育推广计划及财务管理课程等,旨在教育市民如何解决自身的债务及做个精明消费者,这些计划将锁定上班族、学生及新婚夫妇等特定群体。

另外,李志亮希望国民充分了解各项税务奖掖及福利,并利用政策便利来减轻生活负担。

“在2017年财政预算案中,政府已按不同类别增加一马人民援助金(BR1M),如家庭收入低于3000令吉家庭可申请1200令吉的援金、家庭收入3000至4000令吉由800增至900令吉及收入低于2000令吉人士由400增至500令吉。

“其他包括政府明年继续发放100令吉援助金,给家庭月入3000令吉的每一名学生;今年石油气获得高达16亿令吉补贴,而电费补贴达到1亿2400万令吉等福利不一而足。”

他表示,随着我国生活水平越来越高,政府将适时调整与推出各项政策协助人民,惟人民必须亲身去询问及理解。

增收节支弥补赤字缺口

李志亮坦言,政府必须采取增收节支,以弥补赤字缺口,实现在今年杪将财政赤字占国内生产总值的比例降至3%的目标。

他表示,大马减赤计划正步入正轨并逐步见效,过去多年预算案中,由2009年的6.7%不断减低至2016年3.1%的实质赤字。

询及是否有新的政策出台,以减低财政赤字,他认为“不需要”,对的政策不必取消,相反必须坚持及恰当的执行及落实。

制定政府预算经济政策
财政部当“粮草官”

李志亮曾在外交部、内政部及国际贸易及工业部担任副部长,深知“兵马未动,粮草先行”的道理。

“各部门职责范围都不相同,但都需要预算去推动。而财政部担当的角色就是‘粮草官’,制定政府预算、经济政策及金融监管等事务,正确地分配资源,掌管范围更广。

他说,根据2017年财政预算案,发展开销将分配至4个关键领域,分别是经济(255.86亿令吉)、社会(124.11亿令吉)、国防(52.91亿令吉)及行政(27.11亿令吉)。

跨协未造成实际损失

失之TPPA,收之RCEP!

根据我国财政部数据显示,美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPPA)带来的负面影响并不严重,大马拥有东盟及各项自由贸易协定基础,还可开拓更多经济合作协议,足以抵消跨协的冲击。

李志亮指出,由于跨协未正式开跑,所以并未对我国造成实际损失。大马作为一个以出口为导向的开放型经济国,非常依赖国际贸易,对外贸易这一领域尤其重要。

“我国的贸易政策长期以来,都在寻求建立一个更公平及开放的全球贸易环境。因此即使美国退出跨协,大马仍可开拓其他双边自由贸易协定的可能性,包括加拿大、墨西哥及秘鲁。

“马来西亚目前的自由贸易协定基础分别有区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)、大马-欧盟自由贸易联盟经济合作协议(MEEPA)及东盟香港自由贸易协定等,并相信更大型的自由贸易协定将陆续浮现。”

马美贸易仍稳定增长

李志亮说,美国总统特朗普正实践竞选承诺,检讨多边、双边贸易协定,保护主义政策有可能加强(如调高关税约5%),但这不表示将禁止我国出口至美国,实际上马美两国贸易仍保持稳定增长。

强劲需求超乎预期

“马美在2016年的贸易总额达1359亿令吉或9.2%,我国对美国出口约802亿令吉或8.9%,强劲需求也超乎预期,尤其制造业、木制品及化学产品等都获可观成长,令两国的贸易表现维持乐观。

“同时,我国从美国进口微升至556亿令吉,主要进口产品包括电子电器、机械厂房、交通运输、光学及科学设备等,用作推进我国经济行业的优化。”

他也透露,马来西亚对美国的贸易顺差于2016年扩大至246亿令吉,相等于34.2%的增长,2015年为183亿令吉。

经济续增长
不怕资本外流

李志亮强调,我国的经济持续增长,说明我国有足够能力面对美联储加息所带来的资本外流问题。

拥强大投资机构

“尽管美国利率的上升将影响新兴市场,但只要留住经济长期增长的优势,就不必害怕资本外流造成的暂时性冲击。尤其我国曾经历2008年全球金融危机,对这种情况已有对策。”

此外,他指我国拥有强大的投资机构如雇员公积金局(EPF)、公务员退休基金(KWAP)、朝圣基金及回教保险等,能够应付任何突然的抛售活动(如股市)。



实现融入全球供应链目标
高效益计划助中小企转型

李志亮说,高效益计划(HIP)将作为引导大马中小企业转型升级的重要指标,同时乘东盟经济共同体(AEC)之风,扩大成员国之间的贸易投资,实现将中小企业融入全球供应链的目标。

鼓励更多中小企出口

他强调,我国中小企业放眼2020年贡献GDP约41%,意味着每年须增长9%。为达成这一目标,中小企业机构把整合2012至2020年中小企业大蓝图,推行高效益计划(HIP)以加强出口增长。

他指出,中小企业机构已实施拓展市场计划等相连活动,鼓励更多中小企业出口,如持续推动中小型企业革新展(SMIDEX)、中小企业周与中小竞争评级(SCORE)等商务匹配活动。

“此外,作为加强大马出口增长倡议的一部分,由大马外贸发展局执行的促进出口计划(Go-EX programme),将培养国内中小企业在国际市场上更具弹性和竞争力。

李志亮透露,科技商业化平台(TCP)为高效益计划的其中一项,它主张把创意概念带入商业化产品阶段,使用“市场导向”为营销观念,支持创新与产业竞争力,有助扶持中小企业走向良好发展。

东盟经济增长率高于全球

李志亮总结说,近几年来,亚洲、东盟发展的经济增长率高于全球,为全球发展最迅速的经济区域。

“世界经济推定增长率为3.1%,马来西亚在2016年第四季取得4.5%增长(年均约4.2%),该增长是由强劲的经济基本面来支撑,包括比预期低的通货膨胀率、宽松的货币政策、有利于增长的政策及稳定的就业前景。”

有鉴于此,他有信心即便在充满挑战的全球环境下,我国只要稳住在东盟的基础,放眼世界贸易,今年经济与全球贸易将稳步增长。




Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #36 on: March 04, 2017, 07:02:31 PM »



2017-03-04 18:44
国债不应由人民扛.马哈迪:售土地还债更不行
土著团结党名誉主席敦马哈迪说,政府背负的国债不应由人民承担,更不能典当或出售国家土地给外国人来偿还债务。

慕尤丁及马哈迪同台发表政治演说,成为民众注目焦点。
(柔佛.新山4日讯)土著团结党名誉主席敦马哈迪说,政府背负的国债不应由人民承担,更不能典当或出售国家土地给外国人来偿还债务。

广告

他昨晚在土团党新山区部举办的政治讲座会上指出,现今的政府不再聆听人民的心声,从一马公司事件,看出巫统和政府领袖不分是非黑白,只是一味做“应声虫”。

他说,当初支持拿督斯里纳吉当首相,是顾念纳吉的父亲已故前首相敦拉萨,他期盼纳吉如同其父亲那样的好,结果事与愿违,纳吉违背了治理国家的原则,导致两人关系决裂。

马哈迪指出,敦拉萨担任首相期间,专注发展国家,建立和谐生活环境,令人民深表感激,他也视对方为偶像。

当年挺纳吉因为敦拉萨

“敦拉萨是纳吉的父亲,因为这样的缘故,我支持纳吉当首相。”

“我原本期望纳吉会像他父亲那样的好,即使不是百分百,至少有一半,那已经足够了。”

广告

 
马哈迪说,可是纳吉上台后,违背治理国家的原则,有人请求他向纳吉“谏言”,将对方拉回正轨。

“我劝告纳吉,他有听,但没听进耳里,我想,他应该是觉得我这位老人家说的话不中听。”

马哈迪表示,爆发一马公司丑闻后,他无法认同纳吉身为国家领导人的所作所为,决定退出巫统,另组新党。

“人民必须以实际行动做出抗议,来届大选利用手中一票,选出真正能为人民服务的政党组织新政府。”

广告

另一方面,马哈迪指出,拯救大马无关个人身份或来自哪一个州属,身为马来西亚人,就有权利知道国家发生的重大事件。

他是评论柔佛人民社警联合另两个非政府组织,不满该讲座的举行而报警的事件。他指出,自己虽然不是柔佛州人,但他的父亲和哥哥都在柔佛州出生,不论来自哪一个州属,同样是马来人,一样关心国家发生的事情。

慕尤丁:犯错就勇敢认错.领导人勿误导人民

另一位主讲人前副首相兼土著团结党主席丹斯里慕尤丁指出,柔佛州爆发百万房地产贪污案,显示贪污与滥权“无孔不入”,人民必须认真思考,现今政府是如何治理国家?

他说,作为国家领导人,若犯错就应当勇敢认错,而非传达令人民误解的讯息,为自己的错误辩解。

慕尤丁呼吁人民登记成为选民,不要放弃投票权利,从而推翻旧政权,选出廉洁和公正的政府。

这场在新山淡杯乌达新镇举行的露天政治讲座会,吸引约200位民众参与,警方也动员不少警力在场驻守,维持秩序。


民众聚集一堂,聆听讲座,部分民众发出喝彩,鼓掌以示支持。
文章来源:
星洲日报.2017.03.04

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2017, 06:58:29 AM »



IMF:担忧家债
连带负债高影响信心
20点看 2017年3月7日
 
古泽满宏

(吉隆坡6日讯)国际货币基金(IMF)副总裁古泽满宏点出,我国连带负债(Contingent Liabilities),影响投资者对我国市场的信心。


他表示,连带负债造成公众担忧我国家庭负债的情况、同时对市场失去信心。

“相对其他国家,大马的连带负债处在高位,有关当局对此的监控工作非常重要。”

目前,我国债务总值占国内生产总值的53%。

去年3月才上任的古泽满宏,接受《星报》专访时指出,我国政府必须持续推动结构重组,朝向高收入国方向发展。

这些重组内容,包括提升教育素质、加强产能,以及解决劳工市场技能不匹配的问题。

 

改革推向高收入

另外,《The Edge》引述古泽满宏报道,改革将随着时间的推移,让我国达到高收入国的地位。

“政府需实行的改革,包括励女性参与职场、提高教育素质、解决技能不匹配、提高生产效率、发展基础设备,和推广研究和发展活动。”

国际货币基金预测我国在今年的经济增长达4.5%,主要是国内需求推动;该预测在我国政府4%至5%预测范围内。

古泽满宏解释:“在良好的劳动市场表现、私人领域投资增加,和财政措施扶持下,私人领域消费增长料维持强劲。”


 点赞 0赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp
相关课题: IMF国际货币基金家债
上则新闻
朝圣基金
晋多元重工大股东
下则新闻
未安排好股权融资
哈得逊湾购梅西遇阻

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #38 on: March 25, 2017, 06:54:27 AM »



房产风险仍高
慎防家庭债务攀升
808点看 2017年3月24日
报道:姚思敏
(吉隆坡24日讯)去年的家庭债务对国内生产总值(GDP)比例改善,但房地产市场的风险仍偏高,家债问题必须严正关注。

根据国行2016年报,去年的家庭债务占生产总值88.4%, 2015年时89.1%。


同时,总家庭债务年度增速也从2015年的7.3%,缓和到5.4%。

这也是2010年以来,首次比名义GDP增长低。

大马研究首席经济学家安东尼预计,家债对生产总值比例会维持在目前水平,但却有上升的空间。

安东尼指,除了外围和经济局势,还有5个因素会推高家庭债务,不得掉以轻心。

1. 一马房屋贷款:在一个马来西亚房屋计划(PR1MA)下,对于购屋者而言,有新和更容易取得的融资方案。

2. 公务员各类贷款:2017年财政预算案中,政府宣布,公务员买房、摩托和电脑或智能手机的贷款顶限提高。

3. 通胀压力上升

4. 借款成本走高

5. 年轻人口比例高年龄介于25至39岁的年轻人口增加,这属于增加资产的人口,占了总人口达26%比重。

此外,办公室空置率预计将持续增加,因为供需错配,以及更多企业裁员或冻结招聘,以整合业务。

“至于零售市场,预计维持疲弱表现。生活成本上升和就业前景疲弱,拖累消费者持续减少开销。消费者开销依然是零售产业市场的主要挑战。”



房市下半年回暖

不过,安东尼预计下半年产业市场将会有所改善,因为发展商已调整,在市场放缓中推高销量,如重新专注在有地房屋、较小规模单位和可负担房屋。

同时,他认为,银行的房屋贷款保持稳健,归功于在今年采取谨慎放贷和评估方式。

“我们预计,银行融资将持续专注在首购族,这占了去年房屋贷款高达72%,购买低于50万令吉的房屋。”

由于高档住宅产业、办公楼和零售市场持续面对挑战,安东尼认为,房市信用风险依然受到关注。

安东尼还预计,随着全球经济依然挑战,高档住宅产业将进行整顿。

“潜在买家和投资者持续采取静观其变的方式,使到市场情绪疲弱,所以高档公寓展望依然黯淡。”

随着供应和需求缺口扩大、产品定价和国内市场的负担能力错配,加上疲弱令吉使到价格对外国人更具吸引力,促使更多发展商通过海外营销扩展目标市场。

今年银行贷款看涨6%

银行贷款去年增长5.3%,安东尼预计,今年增长5%至6%。

“我们估计,零售贷款温和增长,特别是可负担房屋贷款,加上商品价格走坚、半导体领域上涨动力及资源为主活动展望佳,有助推高出口,并使到企业贷款获得改善。这些因素料将扶持贷款增长。”

同时,达证券分析员则维持今年贷款增长预测在5%。

其中,预计消费者和企业贷款增长率飞蛾扩大5.3%和4.9%,符合国行看好全年私人消费和内需增加。

不过,消费者贷款增加的主因来自产业贷款,因为银行在无担保贷款领域维持严格的放贷政策。


 点赞 3赞
FacebookTwitterGoogle+WhatsApp
相关课题: 家庭债务房产房市银行贷款
上则新闻
阿里巴巴区域中心助威
数字自贸区吹涨物流股
下则新闻
涨势过头宜警惕
避开小型股免烧伤手

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #39 on: April 03, 2017, 05:49:55 PM »



Finance Ministry: Various measures in place to curb household debt growth
 ministryoffinance gdp
 2 comments      Bernama     Published Today 5:10 pm     Updated Today 5:29 pm
Bernama
Finance Ministry: Various measures in place to curb household debt growth
DPM: Almost 1,000 people detained under Sosma since 2012
Agong anoints new chief justice
Trader jailed 23 years for terrorism-related charges
M'sian and Indian firms to jointly develop port and projects in Klang
Sabah early election still under BN scrutiny
Putrajaya marks 60th anniversary of India-M’sia diplomatic ties
Gov’t gives RM14m to three Sabah constituencies for Risda planters
Jakim to summon Siti Kasim over comments on God
Penang Umno offers friendship after state PAS cut ties with PKR
More


 
The government has introduced various measures in stages since 2010 to curb the rise in the ratio of household debt to the gross domestic product (GDP), said the Finance Ministry today.

In a written reply at the Dewan Rakyat sitting today, the ministry said 80 percent of the household debt was from the banking industry while the remaining 20 percent was from non-banking financial institutions.

It said for the period of five years from 2012-2016, the household debt ratio had fluctuated, whereby in 2012 it was 80.5 percent, 2013 (86.2 percent), 2014 (86.8 percent), 2015 (89.1 percent), and 2016 (84.4 percent).

"More than half of the household debt were for buying properties and vehicles, while personal loans amounted to 15 per cent and credit card around 3.5 per cent," said the ministry.

The written answer was in reply to a question from Hasan Arifin (BN-Rompin) who asked the finance minister to state the ratio of household debt to GDP for five years and measures taken by the government to reduce the borrowing habits for non-essential purposes.

"Among the measures taken is to provide affordable housing such as 1Malaysia People's Housing programme which is viewed as helping to reduce the burden of these borrowers as the price offered is reasonable.

"The financial institutions also have guidelines issued by Bank Negara to approve loans only to those eligible to curb the level of household indebtedness," it said.

Besides that, awareness on financial management through Money Management Programme was also introduced to remind the public especially those who had just entered the job market not to spend beyond their ability.

"We also have the Credit Counselling and Debt Management Agency to help settle and put their financial management in order, and to-date, the agency has successfully helped more than 160,000 people with loan problems," it said.

- Bernama

For more news and views that matter, subscribe and support independent media for only RM0.36 sen a day:

Subscribe now
 ministryoffinance gdp
Keep Malaysiakini independent!

Malaysiakini will be 18 this year. That we’ve survived this long is because of you.

Your support matters. A lot. Especially those who pay RM150 annually, RM288 biennially or RM388 triennially to keep Malaysiakini independent from government influence and corporate interests. Advertising alone will not keep Malaysiakini afloat.

Together, we’ve gone far. We’ve covered three prime ministers, four general elections, five Bersih rallies, and countless scandals. But the journey continues.

Help us deliver news and views that ma


Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/377897#ixzz4dB4DMoJJ

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #40 on: May 11, 2017, 06:24:03 AM »



主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 黑田:美元债恐损新兴国
黑田:美元债恐损新兴国
21点看 2017年5月11日
(东京10日讯)日本央行行长黑田东彦周二指出,美国升息可能会给承担美元债务的新兴经济体造成破坏。

他在一个研讨会上发言时称:“美元债务是一个不容忽视的脆弱点。”


他说,提到新兴市场经济体的美元债务,就会令人回想起20世纪80年代令全球受到冲击的拉丁美洲债务危机。

“政策制定者应从两个角度监控新兴经济体的情况,分别是利息支付负担的增加,以及新兴经济体货币兑美元的贬值。”

黑田东彦作出上述言论旨在警告全球政策制定者切勿自满。


Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #41 on: July 18, 2017, 10:50:12 AM »




New U.S. Subprime Boom, Same Old Sins: Auto Defaults Are Soaring
By Gabrielle Coppola
July 17, 2017, 5:00 PM GMT+8
Santander-Chrysler venture opens window into race to bottom
Wall Street’s insatiable debt machine fuels lax underwriting
Pause
Mute
Current Time 0:35
/
Duration Time 3:14
Loaded: 0%Progress: 0%
 
Captions

Fullscreen
Trouble Brews in Subprime Auto Loan Market
Trouble Brews in Subprime Auto Loan Market
It’s classic subprime: hasty loans, rapid defaults, and, at times, outright fraud.

Only this isn’t the U.S. housing market circa 2007. It’s the U.S. auto industry circa 2017.

A decade after the mortgage debacle, the financial industry has embraced another type of subprime debt: auto loans. And, like last time, the risks are spreading as they’re bundled into securities for investors worldwide.

Subprime car loans have been around for ages, and no one is suggesting they’ll unleash the next crisis. But since the Great Recession, business has exploded. In 2009, $2.5 billion of new subprime auto bonds were sold. In 2016, $26 billion were, topping average pre-crisis levels, according to Wells Fargo & Co.


Few things capture this phenomenon like the partnership between Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and Banco Santander SA. Since 2013, as U.S. car sales soared, the two have built one of the industry’s most powerful subprime machines.

Details of that relationship, pieced together from court documents, regulatory filings and interviews with industry insiders, lay bare some of the excesses of today’s subprime auto boom. Wall Street has rewarded lax lending standards that let people get loans without anyone verifying incomes or job histories. For instance, Santander recently vetted incomes on fewer than one out of every 10 loans packaged into $1 billion of bonds, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The largest portion were for Chrysler vehicles.

Some of their dealers, meantime, gamed the loan application process so low-income borrowers could drive off in new cars, state prosecutors said in court documents.

Through it all, Wall Street’s appetite for high-yield investments has kept the loans -- and the bonds -- coming. Santander says it has cut ties with hundreds of dealerships that were pushing unsound loans, some of which defaulted as soon as the first payment. At the same time, Santander plans to increase control over its U.S. subprime auto unit, Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc., people familiar with the matter said.

Lending Practices

Santander, subpoenaed or questioned by a group of about 30 states regarding its auto loan underwriting and securitization activities, declined to comment on “active legal matters.” In May, Santander agreed to pay $26 million to settle allegations brought by Delaware and Massachusetts as part of ongoing investigations into the auto industry’s lending practices. Santander, whose partnership with Chrysler goes by the Chrysler Capital brand name, neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.

Reid Bigland, Chrysler’s U.S. sales chief, said Santander has been a “good partner.”

In recent years, lending practices in the subprime auto industry have come under increased scrutiny. Regulators and consumer advocates say it takes advantage of people with nowhere else to turn.

For investors, the allure of subprime car loans is clear: securities composed of such debt can offer yields as high as 5 percent. It might not seem like much, but in a world of ultra-low rates, that’s still more than triple the comparable yield for Treasuries. Of course, the market is still much smaller than the subprime-mortgage market which triggered the credit crisis, making a repeat unlikely. But the question now is whether that premium, which has dwindled as demand soared, is worth it.

“Investors seem to be ignoring the underlying risks,” said Peter Kaplan, a fund manager at Merganser Capital Management.

Worth It?

Asset-backed securities based on auto loans are engineered to keep paying even when some loans sour. Still, some cracks have emerged in the $1.2 trillion market for auto financing. Delinquencies have picked up, as have losses on subprime loans. Auto loan fraud, meantime, is approaching levels seen in mortgages during the bubble.

Auto finance “is not going to bring down the financial system like the mortgage crisis almost did, but it does signal more stress with the consumer,” said Stephen Caprio, a credit strategist at UBS Group AG.

Whatever the case, the Santander-Chrysler relationship has opened a rare window into an industrywide race to the bottom that may have lasting consequences.

In the years after its 2009 bankruptcy, Chrysler looked for a dedicated lender to help customers finance their cars quickly. One reason it picked Santander was the Spanish lender’s expertise in “automated decisioning.” At the time, a Chrysler executive said the process helped Santander “take a little bit more risk and approve more deals because they mine the data” in subprime.

Becoming Chrysler’s preferred lender made sense for Santander. It was aggressively expanding in the U.S. subprime loan market, and Chrysler, the perennial third wheel among the “Big Three,” relied more on buyers with lower credit scores than General Motors Co. or Ford Motor Co.

Problems surfaced almost from the start. Many of them, detailed in the settlement between Santander and authorities in Delaware and Massachusetts, recall some of the excesses of the subprime housing era.

‘Fraud Dealers’

Attorneys general in both states alleged Santander enabled a group of “fraud dealers” to put buyers into cars they couldn’t afford, with loans it knew they couldn’t repay. It offloaded most of the debt, which often had rates over 15 percent, reselling them to yield-hungry ABS investors.

State authorities also said an internal Santander review in 2013 found that 10 out of 11 loan applications from a Massachusetts dealer contained inflated or unverifiable incomes. (It’s not clear whether this particular case involved a Chrysler dealer.)

Santander kept originating the dealer’s loans anyway, even as they continued to default “at a high rate,” the authorities said.

Some dealerships even asked Santander to double-check customers’ incomes because they didn’t trust their own employees, the authorities said. They also said the lender didn’t always oblige because that would put it at a “competitive disadvantage.” At the time of the settlement, Santander said it was “totally committed to treating its customers fairly.”

In some ways, the laissez-faire mindset reflects how competition squeezed Santander as demand for new cars -- and loans to finance them -- soared.

Tough Time

Without a deposit base, Santander’s auto finance unit had a tough time competing with banks for the most creditworthy buyers. Private-equity firms also poured in, vying for many of the same subprime borrowers Santander targets, but often with more relaxed underwriting. And Santander doesn’t get the same preferences that automakers’ wholly owned finance units typically receive, Bigland said.

The irony is that what got Santander into hot water did little to help it reach the lofty goals set at the outset of the 10-year venture with Chrysler. As of April, Santander financed about 19 percent of the carmaker’s sales, short of the 64 percent they targeted by that time.

While Santander takes pains to avoid criticizing Chrysler, the lender launched a special loyalty and rewards program to vet the carmaker’s dealerships. Those that aren’t deemed fraudulent during the process are labeled “VIPs.” Santander also cut ties with over 800 dealers across its network since 2015 as it tries to boost business without exposing itself to more bad loans.

“Chrysler continues to represent an opportunity for growth for us,” Richard Morrin, chief operating officer of Santander’s auto finance arm, said during an investor presentation in February. Still, “it can’t be growth at any cost.”

Chrysler declined to comment on instances of fraud at its dealer network.

Varying Norms

Indeed, with U.S. auto sales falling after a record 2016, many lenders including Santander say they’re tightening standards. Santander’s underwriting practices, however, continue to raise eyebrows. In May, Moody’s drew attention to the fact that Santander verified incomes on only 8 percent of loans it bundled into bonds, based on data that auto-debt issuers have recently started to disclose.

Yet when it comes to due diligence, there’s no industrywide standard. Unlike the mortgage market, stated-income loans -- also known as “liar loans” -- are perfectly legal in car buying. Last month, Jeff Brown, Ally Financial Inc.’s chief executive, said verifying income isn’t the norm. Ally, he said, checked incomes on 65 percent of its subprime car loans. GM Financial’s AmeriCredit unit checked roughly the same percentage.

The industry has little reason to change given the success of Wall Street’s securitization machine. Protections built into the bonds have largely insulated investors from losses even as delinquencies pile up. Most securities are upgraded over their lifetimes.

The losers, of course, are people who go into debt for cars they can’t afford.

Jerry Robinson, who worked in Santander’s debt collection unit, has seen the trouble firsthand. Robinson, who retired in August after six years with Santander, says one of his responsibilities was to get cars the lender repossessed back into their owners’ hands.

Business Decision

The most important market news of the day.
Get our markets daily newsletter.

Enter your email
 Sign Up
Often times, he found dealers listed non-existent features like sunroofs or alloy wheels to inflate a car’s value and win credit approval. Although Robinson’s job was to make sure dealers reimbursed Santander for any loan fraud, borrowers didn’t see their debts reduced, he said. Instead, their loans were usually extended, increasing the compound interest consumers would ultimately pay after their repoed cars were reinstated. More often than not, those payments wind up going to ABS investors.

Bonuses were tied to how many borrowers could be reinstated, said Robinson, now a Dallas-based member of the Committee for Better Banks, a worker and consumer advocacy coalition backed by a union seeking to organize bank employees. The same cars were often repoed multiple times.

Santander spokeswoman Laurie Kight disputed Robinson’s account and said it was part of a union campaign to discredit the lender. Santander is “unaware” of the type of conduct he described and money reimbursed by dealers for non-existent features is used to reduce borrowers’ loan balances, she said.

Robinson contends it was more profitable for Santander to keep cash-strapped borrowers in their cars rather than auction off the vehicles.

“The business makes money putting people in the car,” he said.

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2017, 08:55:41 AM »




THURSDAY, AUGUST 3, 2017
There is more to the country’s economic health than its debt


Do not simply be misled or fooled by propaganda that stresses the absolute numbers. Instead, look at the economy as a whole and understand what the numbers mean
Eric See-To
Some Malaysians are concerned about the news that there was an increase in Govt debt from RM501.6 billion in 2012 to RM648.5 billion in 2016.
However, what they failed to consider was that during the same period, our country’s yearly GDP or economy size increased, from RM936.2 billion in 2012 to RM1,229 billion in 2016.

This means the debt-to-GDP ratio have been reduced from 53.6% in 2012 to 52.7% in 2016 – signalling increasing strength in govt finances. This ratio actually improved further to 50.2% in Q1 2017 as our economy grew strongly at 5.6% for the quarter.
This is akin to someone whose annual salary was RM93,000 in 2012 and took out a loan of RM50,000 to buy a car.
The person then got promoted and his annual salary increased to RM123,000 in 2016. Should we then be concerned that he took out a loan of RM64,000 to buy a car?

Debt should always be looked at in relation to income – not in absolute value alone.
A millionaire Executive whose credit card debt is RM500,000 may not be any worse of than a fresh graduate who owes RM20,000 on his credit card.
At 52.7%, the ratio compares very favorably to the rest of the world – which is why our country continues to enjoy praises and A-grade investment ratings from the international institutions.
If Malaysia was in trouble or getting worse, these institutions would not be praising us.
During the same 2012 to 2016 period, the USA’s debt increased from US$16 trillion to US$19 trillion while Australia’s debt increased from A$240 billion to A$420 billion.
Even Singapore’s govt debt increased from S$307 billion (RM953 billion) in 2012 to S$335 billion (RM1.03 trillion).
As these three countries grew much slower than Malaysia in those years, their debt-to-GDP ratio actually worsened – as compared to Malaysia which strengthened.
Do not simply be misled or fooled by propaganda that stresses the absolute numbers. Instead, look at the economy as a whole and understand what the numbers mean.
Malaysians should learn to question the propaganda.
Source: www.facebook.com/EricSeeTo
Mohd. Kamal bin Abdullah at 7:18 AM

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #43 on: August 18, 2017, 02:10:10 PM »





Friday, 18 August 2017 | MYT 1:44 PM
Malaysia's external debt lower in Q2 at RM877b
BY FINTAN NG

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2014/07/10/10/08/bnm.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=9AA86B58EB3EEE3B80649F85DD707DE3A68685B5

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s external debt declined to RM877.5bil at end-June 2017 from  end-March as the ringgit firmed up against selected major and regional currencies and also due to net repayment of interbank borrowings during the second quarter.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said on Friday the external debt of RM877.5bil was equivalent to US$202.3bil or 66.9% of GDP as at end-June 2017.

This was an improvement from end-March 2017's RM897bil (US$200.8bil).

“The lower external debt largely reflects the valuation effects following the strengthening of the ringgit against selected major and regional currencies and net repayment of interbank borrowing during the second quarter.

“There were also net repayment of intercompany loans and redemption of maturing bond and notes by the private sector. These declines were partly offset by an increase in non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities, especially Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), and a small increase in non-resident deposits,” it said.

BNM said Malaysia’s external debt remains manageable given its currency and maturity profiles, as well as the availability of large external assets.

“About one-third of total external debt is denominated in ringgit (32.8%), mainly in the form of NR (non resident) holdings of domestic debt securities and ringgit deposits in domestic banking institutions. As such, these liabilities are not subjected to valuation changes from the fluctuations in the ringgit exchange rate.

BNM also said in Q2 2017, the financial account registered a net inflow of RM7.3bil (Q1 2017: net outflow of RM8.8bil). This was mainly due to a turnaround in the portfolio investment account (net inflow of RM16bil; Q1 2017: net outflow of RM31.9bil).
 
It also pointed out portfolio investment by non-residents recorded a net inflow of RM18.8 billion (Q1, 2017: net outflow of RM22.9bil), due mainly to a resumption in purchases of Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and higher participation in the equity market.

BNM also said investor sentiments improved during the quarter, supported by the announcement of initiatives to develop the onshore financial market, stronger ringgit performance, expectations of better corporate earnings outlook and domestic growth prospects.

“Resident portfolio investment registered a lower net outflow of RM2.8bil (Q1, 2017: net outflow of RM9bil), as the continued net acquisition of equity securities abroad by domestic fund managers was partially offset by net liquidation of debt securities overseas,” it said.
 
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/08/18/malaysia-external-debt-lower-in-q2-at-rm877b/#TLsq1PkVWcWJT4AX.99

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #44 on: August 22, 2017, 10:21:31 AM »




FREE MALAYSIA TODAY
Debts among young likely to increase, says think tank
Vanesha Shurentheran and Nora Jaswa
Read More AzrulMohdKhalib-credit1
FMT BAHASAFMT BORNEO+FMT VIDEOCONTRIBUTE NEWS
HOMENATIONOPINIONWORLDLEISURESPORTSBUSI NESSADVERTISE WITH US

Search
 0 0 0 New
Debts among young likely to increase, says think tank
Vanesha Shurentheran and Nora Jaswa | August 22, 2017
IDEAS cites consumer report and finance ministry data in warning of youths getting into 'serious debt' and facing bankruptcy.
AzrulMohdKhalib-creditPETALING JAYA: A think tank has blamed credit cards for being one of the major causes of why young Malaysians are in debt.
Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) said debt payments among many of the country’s young amounted to more than 30% of their gross income.
“A study by the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations (Fomca) indicated a few years ago that 47% of young Malaysians are currently in ‘serious debt’,” IDEAS external relations manager Azrul Mohd Khalib told FMT.
Azrul said it was sobering to realise that 68% of Malaysians currently have debts, which is the highest proportion compared with people in Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
Finance ministry data has showed the number of Malaysians in debt rose from 18,119 in 2010 to 22,351 in 2014, but slid back down to 18,457 in 2015.
“It is likely that these numbers are going to rise in the coming years due to the escalating cost of living.”
Azrul warned that any hike in debts would lead to a corresponding increase in cases of depression, mental illness, broken homes and even suicides.
Deputy Finance Minister Lee Chee Leong told the Dewan Negara yesterday that only 43.6% of card holders settled their credit card debts in full from January to June this year.
Another 43.6% settled at least the 5% minimum payment during the same period.
The remaining 12.8% failed to pay the outstanding balance or the minimum payment before the payment due date.

He also revealed that 845 individuals, aged below 30, were declared bankrupt in the first half of the year.
Education is key
Financial adviser Eno Wong said greater awareness on the ills of getting into serious debt could reduce the number of bankruptcy cases caused by credit cards.
“Better education on spending and the problems that come with credit card debt could make consumers wiser,” he told FMT.
When asked about the number of youths declared bankrupt, Wong said it was not a worrying figure.
“It is not a big figure if you compare it against Malaysia’s 31 million population.
“But without better education in wealth management, the figures will probably rise,” Wong said.
Another financial adviser, Robert Foo, said stricter rules in issuing credit cards could reduce the number of people defaulting in payments.
He said it was the government and bankers who set the rules on who should get these credit cards. He also mentioned the aggressive efforts by banks to promote credit cards, especially to fresh graduates and those starting out in their career.
Foo also agreed that education was the key for youths to learn good financial management.
In his reply to the Dewan Negara, Lee said there were 3.6 million main credit card holders in Malaysia as at end June.
The figure accounted for 18% out of the 20 million Malaysians, aged between 20 and 74.
“At the end of June, the outstanding balance for credit cards was RM36.9 billion, of which 7.3% or RM2.7 billion was overdue balance,” Lee said

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #45 on: August 25, 2017, 12:22:10 PM »




Malaysia’s debt manageable, says ratings house
Updated 25 minutes ago · Published on 25 Aug 2017 11:38AM · 0 comments
More
A
Malaysia’s debt manageable, says ratings house
Dr Mahathir Mohamad delivering his speech at the 'The Impact of China's Investments In Malaysia' forum in Kuala Lumpur last night. RAM Ratings says foreign direct investment from China will benefit Malaysia as a counterbalance against the United States’ increasingly protectionist policies. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Nazir Sufari, August 25, 2017.

CHINESE funding for major infrastructure projects will increase Malaysia’s off-balance-sheet liabilities, but at a measured pace, RAM Ratings said in a report.

The Star today reported that the ratings house said such funding, through loan and debt issuance, carried repayment risks and noted that the government-guaranteed debt was “hefty”, although this was “not a major concern at the moment”.

RAM Ratings cited the RM55 billion East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project as an example that would increase Malaysia’s off-balance-sheet liabilities.

But debt was still manageable, it said, with head of sovereign ratings Esther Lai quoted as saying “excluding the guaranteed debts of Khazanah, which does not receive financial assistance from the government, the maturity profile of the government-guaranteed debt comes up to a manageable RM5.2 billion on average for 2017 to 2021”.


RAM Ratings' sovereign ratings for Malaysia stand at A2/stable and sea AAA/stable.

The ECRL, among other major China-funded infrastructure projects, has drawn criticism and concern, especially from the opposition, over the risks and exposure Malaysia would face.

At a forum on the impact of China’s investments in Malaysia last night, an opposition MP and an economist warned that Malaysia would face "greater economic risks” because of the country’s debt to Chinese banks for the projects.

Pakatan Harapan chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad had said if the opposition took over Putrajaya, it would review several “unnecessary” mega-projects that would financially burden the country, such as the ECRL and the RM60 billion KL-Singapore High Speed Rail project.

The Star reported that Lai acknowledged concerns about overcapacity regarding Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in other projects, involving resorts, retail space and residential property, which she said were being viewed with caution.

RAM Ratings noted that the commercial and residential property sectors had been negative over the past three years, owing to a mismatch between supply and demand, as well as weak sentiment.

However, Lai said, FDI from China would benefit Malaysia as a counterbalance against the United States’ increasingly protectionist policies.

FDI from China could help Malaysia sustain its foreign reserves as the country’s current account surplus was expected to remain in the low single digits as a percentage of gross domestic product, she added.

China has been expanding its investments in the region through its Belt and Road initiative, and its FDI inflows are viewed as complementary to the increasing trade flows between the country and Malaysia. – August 25, 2017.

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2017, 08:17:21 PM »




Malaysia household debt ‘not a systematic threat’, says economist
Updated 49 minutes ago · Published on 10 Oct 2017 7:07PM · 0 comments
More
A
Malaysia household debt ‘not a systematic threat’, says economist
RAM Rating Services Bhd says Malaysia's household debt is not a significant threat due to macro prudential measures implemented by the government. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, October 10, 2017.

MALAYSIA’s household debt warrants monitoring but is not a systemic threat, said RAM Rating Services Bhd.

“Macro prudential measures implemented by the government has improved the profile of household debt. With improving labour market conditions, we should not see significant deterioration to household debt servicing,” its head of sovereign ratings Esther Lai said.

She was asked to comment on claims made by an opinion piece that Malaysia was one of only two Asian economies where household debt “exceeds 70% of GDP” and that the country’s debt bubble was about to explode.

Lai also said that World Bank’s forecasts of 5% for 2018 (for Malaysia) was not a bad report card.


“Malaysia's GDP expansion for 2018 is not expected to be as strong as this year given the high-base effect and moderation in exports from the initial boost in 2017 (after two years of subdued trade).

“The World Bank forecasts 5% (for 2018), which doesn’t seem to be such a bad report card though. Bear in mind, global growth is not even close to 4%,” said Lai in an email.

On the headwinds for Malaysia, geopolitical issues, policy uncertainties and monetary tightening in developed countries could pose some risks, she added.

“A major risk for Malaysia is external demand, such as geopolitical issues that could weaken sentiment, policy uncertainties and monetary tightening in developed countries.

“The plus point is that our domestic demand is holding up, with improving labour market conditions, that should provide the base support for private consumption.

“For investments, there are increasing signs of equipment and machinery investments, which is good as previously, investments were mainly infrastructure works,” said Lai.

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific economic Update October 2017 reported that GDP growth in Malaysia had accelerated during the first half of 2017 to 5.7% year on year, supported by strengthening domestic and external demand.

As a result, the report said Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow at 5.2% in 2017.

The World Bank also gave Malaysia a positive outlook as the economy continues to experience broadbased growth across a range of diversified sectors.

However, the report also cautioned that as an open economy, risks related to changes in the global economic outlook weighed on Malaysia’s growth as the economy is vulnerable to shifts in external demand and market sentiment. – October 10, 2017.

Online king

  • King
  • ***********
  • Posts: 68,679
Re: DEBT
« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2017, 12:14:42 PM »




 
还不起贷款 9万人破產
国內 最后更新 2017年10月30日 18时47分
还不起贷款 9万人破產

3.3k分享
(吉隆坡30日讯)首相署部长拿督斯里阿莎丽娜表示,根据报穷局的数据显示,从2013年至2017年8月,共有9万4408人申请破產。

她说,当中有多达96.58%,即9万1180人,是因为无法分期偿还金融机构的贷款而破產。

「从2013年至2017年8月,在金融机构產品类別的破產人数达9万1180人。其实最高一年,是在2014年达2万1641人,今年至8月为止,则有1万1522人。」

她说,因金融贷款而破產类別,包括买车、个人贷款、房屋贷款、商业贷款、信用卡、社会担保和企业担保人。

继续阅读,请往下滑

相关新闻
阿莎丽娜:警方重启调查1MDB
30日 • 约24小时前
买卖假勋衔 最高刑罚监禁20年
25日 • 5天前
访美开销 部长答符合首相津贴
25日 • 5天前
纳吉9月访美会特朗普 首相署:一切费用依法报销
25日 • 5天前
最高130万 8公司欠税破產
11日 • 2星期前
「这些类別中,买车导致破產的人数最高,共2万5137人(27.57%),最低的这是商业贷款共2954人(3.24%)。

阿莎丽娜是在誌期10月23日的书面答覆中,如是回应巫统士兆国会议员拿督仄莫哈末朱基菲里的提问。

她说,政府认真看待此问题,通过制定消费者信贷法令来实施各种措施,以控制信贷活动,为消费者提供更多的保护。

他指出,国家银行也推出了开销行为指南,要求金融机构协助那些因疾病、失业或其他合理理由而无法偿还贷款的借贷人。


Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum

Re: DEBT
« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2017, 12:14:42 PM »