Author Topic: Dark Cloud Over Brexit  (Read 7622 times)

Offline zuolun

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Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« on: June 18, 2016, 01:37:41 PM »
US companies and sectors that are most exposed to a Brexit ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/17/us-companies-and-sectors-that-are-most-exposed-to-a-brexit.html



IOI Corp has highest revenue exposure to Europe, says CIMB Research ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/17/ioi-corp-has-highest-revenue-exposure-to-europe-says-cimb-research/

Currency volatility biggest Brexit worry for S’pore firms ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/currency-volatility-biggest-brexit-worry-spore-firms

Brexit: India’s ties with Europe run deep ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/06/17/brexit-indias-ties-with-europe-run-deep/

Brexit: Which large-caps have earnings exposure to Britain? ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/06/16/brexit-which-large-caps-have-earnings-exposure-to-britain/

Some M’sian firms to take a hit if Brexit happens ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/16/some-msian-firms-to-take-a-hit-if-brexit-happens/

Overseas realty investors not jittery over UK vote ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://gulfnews.com/business/property/overseas-realty-investors-not-jittery-over-uk-vote-1.1846462

Investing in a volatile market ~ 28 May 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/28/investing-in-a-volatile-market

Goldman: Brexit will smash British companies — here are the ones which will be worst hit ~ 21 Mar 2016
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/goldman-brexit-smash-british-companies-131225901.html



Goldman Sachs: Brexit would hit banks and homebuilders most ~ 21 Mar 2016
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/21/brexit-would-hit-banks-homebuilders-goldman-sachs



London property: 'Nervous' Battersea Power Station investors slash asking prices to re-sell ~ 4 Mar 2016
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-property-nervous-battersea-power-station-investors-slash-asking-prices-re-sell-1547647



Brexit, Boris and British retailers ~  4 Mar 2016
http://www.german-retail-blog.com/topic/past-blogs/Brexit-Boris-and-British-retailers-371

Biggest U.S. with large European exposure
http://www.forbes.com/pictures/eejk45kmil/biggest-sp-500-companies-with-european-exposure-and-weak-balance-sheets

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Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« on: June 18, 2016, 01:37:41 PM »

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2016, 01:06:03 PM »
The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year ~ 18 Jun 2016
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/man-accurately-predicted-4-market-063000480.html


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2016, 02:11:50 PM »



The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year
LIANNA BRINDED FINANCE    JUN. 18, 2016, 2:30 PM
image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d16-2400/destruction%20chaos%20painting.jpg

destruction chaos painting
Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire
The man who accurately predicted four market crashes to the exact date each time has told Business Insider about three more dates to worry about.

Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst and chief market strategist at Core Spreads.

Technical analysts look at charts to pinpoint patterns in various markets and asset classes. From that, they forecast which direction prices are likely to move.

They can’t tell you the reasons why there will be a big market movement, only that there is going to be one.

He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

2. September 26, 2016.

3. October 20, 2016.

“We have interesting times ahead of us. We are dealing with issues on so many levels from economic uncertainty in the financial markets, including currencies and commodities as well as the rising house prices we have seen,” said Jadeja in an interview.

“I believe that using the information we have and embracing the tools and technology we have access to right now that we could use these to our advantage to prepare and protect as well as prepare and prosper.”

So what’s his secret?

The spot-on track record
image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d17-1500/sandy%20jadeja%20photo.jpg

SANDY JADEJA PHOTO
Sandy Jadeja
Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst.

It is worth revisiting his track record.

In 2005, he said he warned 2,000 investors at a speaking event in Shanghai, China, a talk in New York at a Traders Expo, as well as banks and investment houses at a speaking event in Dubai about the property market crash — eight weeks before it happened.

More recently, on July 31, 2015, before flying to Singapore to speak at a conference of more than 5,000 people, Jadeja warned investors on CNBC that something big would happen on August 18, and to “be prepared to bank profits and stand aside.” There was then a flash crash where the Dow Jones Index lost 2,198 points (-12.5%) in just four trading days.

After that successful prediction, Jadeja told CNBC on August 28, 2015, that “there would be a further decline commencing on September 14 or 17, 2015. Then, yet again, the Dow Jones fell 991 points (-5.8%) over eight trading days.

And then on October 1, 2015, and in November, he told CNBC again that, “January 4, 2016 would face a bearish mood and see the markets fall despite the bullish consensus on Wall Street.” On that date, US markets and other global indexes fell sharply, where the Dow Jones shaved off 1955 points (-11.2%) over 11 trading days.

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d18-2288/djchartsandy1.jpg

DJchartSandy1
Sandy Jadeja
How he predicts what the markets are going to do
Technical analysts use historical charts to spot patterns in the markets. They cannot tell you what event will move the markets. They can only tell you when a shift is likely to happen.

And we are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018, Jadeja said.

“We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the 'Time Cycle'] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place,” he said.

Take a look at this chart:

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d19-2306/sandychart2.jpg

SANDYCHART2
Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro
Now take a look at the chart that mirrors that period:

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d1a-2282/sandychart5.jpg

SANDYCHART5
Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro
“This exact same cycle is what we are in right now. And so I am worried that we could see a potential threat to our economy in the current ‘Time Cycle’ we are witnessing right now,” said Jadeja.

“We have a situation. This lasts until 2018 for this particular cycle. And my worry is that we could see sudden sharp declines take place and tripping investors if they are not prepared,” he said.

Jadeja is convinced that the sudden declines will take place on three dates — between August 26 and August 30, September 26, and October 20, 2016 — in this “time cycle.”

But while it sounds bad, at least investors can take the market warnings on board and prepare themselves.

“We can use market data to help us forecast price targets and when we see price and time meet together there is a stronger than average potential for major turns in global markets,” he said


Read more at http://www.businessinsider.my/sandy-jadeja-interview-technical-analysis-dow-jones-market-crash-forecasts-2016-6/#rDJSvY34JPTbHufI.99

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2016, 02:12:48 PM »



He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

2. September 26, 2016.

3. October 20, 2016.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 07:38:31 AM »
More tightening in mortgage lending likely: Macquarie analysts ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/more-tightening-in-mortgage-lending-likely-macquarie-analysts-20160620-gpne6w.html



Australia’s property correction, not bubble ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/australias-property-correction-not-bubble/2016/06/21/

HSBC: Property price growth to halve in 2016 ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/hsbc-property-price-growth-to-halve-in-2016-20160620-gpnvuo.html



Australia taxes foreign home buyers as affordability bites ~ 19 Jun 2016
https://www.yahoo.com/news/australia-taxes-foreign-home-buyers-affordability-bites-032933388.html



Australian states impose stamp duty surcharge on foreign property buyers ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.step.org/news/australian-states-impose-stamp-duty-surcharge-foreign-property-buyers

Sydney introduces new stamp duty on foreign homebuyers ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/sydney-introduces-home-stamp-duty-on-foreigners-after-melbourne

NSW is hitting foreign property investors with $1 billion in new taxes ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nsw-is-hitting-foreign-property-investors-with-1-billion-in-new-taxes-2016-6


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 07:59:39 AM »
优步(Uber)风行·销售疲弱·车市陷严冬 ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1539500/%E4%BC%98%E6%AD%A5%E9%A3%8E%E8%A1%8C%C2%B7%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE%E7%96%B2%E5%BC%B1%C2%B7%E8%BD%A6%E5%B8%82%E9%99%B7%E4%B8%A5%E5%86%AC

连接出行断点 优步(Uber)跨界旅游攻市场 ~ 19 Jun 2016
http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2016-06-19/doc-ifxtfrrc3876622.shtml

优步(Uber)将发售杠杆贷款筹82亿 ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1537507/%E4%BC%98%E6%AD%A5%E5%B0%86%E5%8F%91%E5%94%AE%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E8%B4%B7%E6%AC%BE%E7%AD%B982%E4%BA%BF

Uber中国联合海航等公司推出“优步+旅行”战略 ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://it.sohu.com/20160615/n454554027.shtml


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2016, 09:17:17 AM »
Rio de Janeiro governor declares state of financial emergency ahead of Olympics ~ 23 Jun 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/17/rio-de-janeiro-financial-emergency-olympic-games-2016

Amazon jaguar shot dead after Olympic torch ceremony ~ 22 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-jaguar-idUSKCN0Z72P4

Brazil’s acting president OKs transfer of $849 million to Rio de Janeiro state ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-acting-president-oks-transfer-of-849-million-to-rio-de-janeiro-state-1466551330



Oi bankruptcy spotlights Brazilian debt problems ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98e3ef1a-37cd-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html



Oi files for Brazil record $19 billion bankruptcy protection ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/oi-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-as-talks-with-creditors-stall



Brazil 'to give Rio $850m' in aid for Olympic Games ~ 19 Jun 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/brazil-give-rio-850m-aid-olympic-games-160618163415697.html

Here's what really went wrong with Brazil's economy ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latinamerica-brazil-economy-commentar-idUSKCN0YH08D

Brazil's economy shrinks for fifth consecutive quarter ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36425427

The origins of Brazil’s turmoil ~ 12 May 2016
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/brazil-impeachment-origins-america/481911/

Trouble in Brazil ~ 11 May 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-YhvrBKHWY

Brazil's 'broken' healthcare system ~ 5 Feb 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/02/brazil-broken-healthcare-system-160204075525812.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 07:51:17 AM »
"This crisis cannot be fixed by the central banks. They will try pumping more money, but it won’t help. A UK company working in the EU has to go through a huge adjustment and so does a German company making/selling products in Britain. That has nothing to do with liquidity. Until the new rules are established, and it will take years, most businesses will be paralyzed and that cannot be fixed by a liquidity injection. Many companies will go under while waiting for the trade deals to be negotiated. Welcome to the Dark Side! "

Alan Greenspan laments Brexit vote ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/alan-greenspan-laments-brexit-vote/news-story/561e29f8803d0e6f10616e33195ed9d2

The Great Unraveling ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-shireman/the-great-unraveling_b_10717748.html



Chinese investors join gold rush for haven after Brexit turmoil ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/chinese-investors-join-gold-rush-for-haven-after-brexit-turmoil



英国脱欧李嘉诚资产缩水11亿美元 巴菲特更惨 ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160627/14528922_0.shtml



Why Brexit really is a big deal for the U.S. economy ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://time.com/4383202/brexit-america-fallout-economy-fed/

Black swan playbook ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-06-27/black-swan-playbook

Britain and the European Union: After the vote, chaos ~ 25 Jun 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-britain-has-voted-leave-eu-what-follows-will-be-new-prime-minister-volatile-financial

Global central banks raise cash offer to quell Brexit panic ~ 24 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/central-banks-pledge-action-to-alleviate-strains-on-brexit-news

Why is America so alarmed by a Brexit vote? ~ 12 Jun 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d509ceee-2ef2-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html



Britain and the European Union: The real danger of Brexit ~ 27 Feb 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693584-leaving-eu-would-hurt-britainand-would-also-deal-terrible-blow-west-real-danger


Online king

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 07:55:39 AM »


 :hi: :hi: :hi:

Welcome to the Dark Side! "


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2016, 12:21:29 PM »
Indian money in Swiss banks has dropped to a 20-year low ~ 1 Jul 2016
http://qz.com/720898/indian-money-in-swiss-banks-has-dropped-to-a-20-year-low/

Singapore MAS advises investors to be mindful of currency exchange risks ~ 1 Jul 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/mas-advises-investors-to-be-mindful-of-currency-exchange-risks

Moody's revises outlook on Singapore's banking system to negative ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/30/moodys-revises-outlook-on-singapore-banking-system-to-negative/

Brexit aftermath: Rating cuts may cripple United Kingdom ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/rating-cuts-may-cripple-uk

Brexit: Moody’s lowers outlook for 12 UK banks including HSBC, Barclays ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.ibtimes.com/brexit-moodys-lowers-outlook-12-uk-banks-including-hsbc-barclays-2388038

Singapore bank halts London mortgage loans after Brexit as Asia lenders flag risks ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-banks-uob-idUSL4N19M152

Italian bank crisis may be collateral damage from Brexit ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/28/investing/italian-banks-brexit-matteo-renzi/

Brexit seen to have negative impact on banking sector ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/brexit-seen-have-negative-impact-banking-sector



Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain

By Martin Arnold and Laura Noonan in London
26 Jun 2016

Banks have already begun to take action to shift operations out of the UK, but most of their staff will have to wait several months to find out how many thousands of them will be asked to move to fledgling financial hotspots like Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt.

Investment banks, who donated heavily to the Remain campaign, have reacted immediately to Britain’s referendum result, with some of London’s largest institutions approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate.

The big US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley — have large operations employing tens of thousands of people in the UK. They have historically set up their regulated businesses in Britain and then used its right to “passport” into the rest of the 28-member bloc.

But lawyers are warning that after Brexit, they would likely need a new legal home base, so they are preparing to shift at least some work to cities such as Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

UK banks were also re-evaluating what to do with their businesses that trade EU — as opposed to UK — securities, because many analysts assume that clearing of those products will move to the continent.

HSBC said before the vote that it could move as many as 1,000 trading jobs to Paris in the event of a Leave. But because the bank already has a Paris office, it could defer any decision until right before the UK’s exit comes into effect.

The danger to the UK’s financial services sector was highlighted by François Villeroy de Galhau, France’s central bank governor, who warned that banks would lose “passporting” rights to operate in the EU if Britain leaves the single market.

The UK could try to adopt the path followed by Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area but not the EU. But that has drawbacks: it requires Britain to implement all of the EU’s rules without having a say in writing them.

And Jonathan Hill, the Briton who resigned at the weekend as EU’s commissioner for financial services, told the Financial Times that he was not sure an arrangement would work. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.

The US banks, therefore, are already preparing for the contingency that the right to sell financial products and services from Britain to EU clients could be partially or entirely abolished.

“We’ll get on with it,” said a senior executive at one large US bank. “We’ve started to think about how we put people in our existing offices and entities in Europe. We are already rebalancing our footprint.”

“Some stuff will move quickly — we’ll travel at the pace of the slowest link,” said the executive. “Regulatory approvals and permissions can take time — we will look ahead at all the circumstances and ask what do we need to continue to serve our clients.”

Damian Carolan of Allen & Overy said it would typically take banks 2-3 months to put a licence application together. They would then have to wait for about six months for approval for an investment bank or brokerage, or nine months for a retail bank.



But he warned that those timetables could be extended, saying: “That’s in normal times . . . In these times, you will have a number of onshore regulators getting numerous questions.”

Many of the US banks have been quietly bulking up European entities outside the UK, allowing them to transfer some activities quite quickly. But most of them still lack sufficient licences to carry out many of the operations they at present run out of London.

“If you don’t have a [full EU] licence [outside the UK] then you need to start work right away,” said the head of investment banking at a large group.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, warned before the referendum that as many as 4,000 jobs could be shifted out of the UK. But investment bank boss Daniel Pinto — whose unit employs most of JPMorgan’s 16,000 staff in Britain — told the FT that the US group hoped to keep most of its UK investment bank intact. The bank would “need to figure out a way to deal with” some specific products and services, such as global custody and corporate deposits, but he said any moves would be gradual.

“We will not start moving people until we have clarity on what we will be allowed to do from the UK once the negotiations [on the terms of the country’s exit from the EU] start to take shape,” he said.

Jonathan Lewis, head of Japan’s Nomura International, which employs about 2,600 staff in London, said it would have to “wait and see” how things unfolded before making any big decisions about its locations or operating structures.

But his base case was that the UK would be left at a disadvantage. “I don’t see how anyone can say with any certainty that passporting will continue. Switzerland doesn’t have passporting, neither does the US, so we cannot assume we will,” he said.

Morgan Stanley had previously warned that 1,000 of its London jobs could move in the event of a Leave vote, but on Friday categorically denied a report that it had already decided 2,000 workers were being moved to either Dublin or Frankfurt.

Brexit: What next for investment banks? ~ 25 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAXVPZ-Ma80

Insurers protect German banks hoarding billions in cash ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/german-insurers-cash-idUSL8N1953EI

Swiss banks' new trouble spots ~ 9 Jun 2016
http://www.finews.asia/finance/22463-swiss-banks-new-trouble-spots


Online odie

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2016, 09:03:46 AM »
Interest rate could hit 0%
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/interest-rates-hit-0/

The Bank of England could cut the interest rate by 50 basis points and relaunch quantitative easing when the MPC meets on July 14, acording to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Ryan Fowler

July 5, 2016
bank of england 4

The Bank of England could cut the interest rate by 50 basis points and relaunch quantitative easing when the MPC meets on July 14, acording to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The swaps market is now pricing in a 15% chance of the base rate actually turning negative, a 50% chance of an interest rate cut in July, a 65% chance of a cut by August and an 80% chance of a cut by the end of the year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has said “We expect for them to cut interest rates 50 basis points at their 14 July policy meeting. We also expect the Bank of England to relaunch quantitative easing with a £50bn salvo; we pencil that in for August.”

Whilst research consultancy Capital Economics has added: “We think that a cut in interest rates in the near term looks likely and possibly even a restarting of the quantitative easing program.”

And Rosita Mendonca, marketing manager at Nova Financial, said its a good time for borrowers and a great time for firms to review their mortgage lending.

She said: “The UK mortgage market is bracing itself for a potential cut in interest rates as a result of the uncertainty after the historic EU referendum last week.

“Big names from all across the business world are predicting that the Bank of England will be cutting interest rates very soon. With some predicting that negative interest rates might even half to come to the rescue of the Bank of England.

 

“This is good news for borrowers, who can now expect lower interest rates in the near future. This all works because mortgage providers will pay less for the money they lend to consumers, as they borrow the money from the markets where rates are based on Gilts – or government bond – yields.”

Mark Carney came out after Thursday’s shock result with a statement to assure the markets that “The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning” and they “will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.”

Mendonca added: “After all the uncertainty in the markets of late, only one thing is clear. It’s going to be a great time to review your mortgage lending.”

Online odie

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2016, 09:32:57 AM »
Three UK real estate funds halt selling; what happens next?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/more-pain-to-come-for-uk-property-funds.html
Spriha Srivastava   | @spriha
9 Hours AgoCNBC.com
Slower demand for commercial real estate: BoE
Slower demand for commercial real estate: BoE
15 Hours Ago|02:58

The news that Standard Life, Aviva and M&G Investments have suspended dealing in their U.K. property funds has both investors and fund managers worried about the consequences on the broader sector.

Shares of Standard Life were down nearly 5 percent on Tuesday. Meanwhile, shares across other asset management companies were sharply negative too. Aberdeen Asset Management saw its shares down nearly 8 percent, while Schroders was down nearly 6 percent.

Standard Life was the first to announce suspension on Monday. Aviva Investors and M&G Investments followed the lead to announce a temporary suspension on Tuesday. All three companies have attributed the decision to a massive increase in investor redemptions because of high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property since the outcome of the referendum on June 23.

While all three companies have claimed that the decision was taken in order to protect the interests of investors who may be negatively impacted by this, the fear that this may be followed by more property funds has started to worry many.

"Redemptions have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds' shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension in trading. This will allow the fund manager time to raise cash levels in a controlled manner, ensuring that any asset disposals are achieved at reasonable values," M&G said in a statement.
'Exceptional market circumstances'


Meanwhile, Standard Life in a statement said the decision to suspend trading in the real estate fund and its associated feeder funds from midday on Monday was taken due to "exceptional market circumstances". Aviva Investors echoed the same reason for suspension of dealing in their £1.8 billion property fund in an official statement.

"The decision was taken following an increase in redemption requests as a result of uncertainty for the U.K. commercial real estate market following the EU referendum result," Standard Life said. "The suspension was requested to protect the interests of all investors in the fund and to avoid compromising investment returns from the range, mix and quality of assets within the portfolio."

Standard Life further explained that unlike investing in equities, the selling process for real estate is sometimes lengthy as the fund manager needs to offer assets for sale and find prospective buyers. This process can take time.

Jonathan Bell, chief investment officer at Stanhope Capital told CNBC on Tuesday that the problem lies both in the property business and low earnings growth.

"The issue you have got is a lot of these companies cannot generate the earnings growth and on the insurance side you have got buying assets giving you very little yield and then on top of that you have got this current concern on the property business. I would have thought that is a short term-concern, you are going to carry on getting the yield but whether you are going to get growth as well is another issue," he said.
Shockwaves in markets


The decision by the U.K. to exit the EU has sent shockwaves across global markets. Stocks and sterling saw a massive sell-off in the days after the vote was announced. While the market tested a rally in the past week, analysts called the move a "dead cat bounce." The ongoing volatility in the markets has had a negative impact on retail funds that have seen massive outflows.

Property as an investment can be made either by physically purchasing a house or through Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) provided by funds. While this offers a diversification in an investment portfolio, they sometimes tend to see more challenges due to the nature of the real estate market in the U.K.

"Property funds are clearly under pressure as a result of the Brexit vote, and we could now see a new wave of investors being unable to liquidate their property funds quickly, which we last witnessed during the financial crisis," Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said in a daily note.

He further explained that part of the problem also stems from investing in an open-ended property fund as opposed to a closed-ended fund. An open-ended fund works like a collective investment scheme which can issue and redeem shares at any time; however a closed-ended fund works like a publicly traded company that is a structured, listed and traded like a stock on a stock exchange.

"Closed-ended property funds at least provide investors the chance to sell out during market upheaval, though widespread selling serves to depress share prices and widen discounts in times of stress," Khalaf said.

BoE in 'close touch'
Photographer | Collection | Getty Images

Speaking at the Bank of England's press conference to present the Financial Stability Report, Financial Conduct Authority Chief Andrew Bailey said the purpose of the suspension is to create a pause to revalue underlying assets.

He said the FCA is in very close touch with firms in the real estate sector and added this does point to issues in the design of real estate funds. He further added that his own feeling was that the structure of open-ended real estate funds needs to be reviewed.

The report also highlighted that foreign inflows of capital to U.K. commercial real estate fell by almost 50 percent in the first quarter of 2016.

While it is not certain how similar funds will react going forward, some analysts have said this can pose a big challenge for all open-ended funds property funds.

The Association of Investment Companies (AIC), a trade body for closed-ended investment companies told CNBC via email that closed-ended investment company structure is well-suited to illiquid assets such as property.

"We cannot speculate on what will happen next to the property sector but in past periods of uncertainty, for example, in the financial crisis, a number of open-ended property funds were closed and this stopped investors buying or selling the fund for a fixed period," Jemma Jackson, AIC's spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the move from Aviva and Standard Life has led to concerns among investors who may have invested their money in other U.K. property funds. Insurance firm Legal & General said in an official statement that it hasn't halted redemptions.

"Legal and General's U.K. Property Fund remains well positioned in terms of liquidity and asset management initiatives. The fund retains over 20 percent of its NAV (net asset value) in liquid assets – the majority of which is held in cash," the company said in a statement.

Columbia Threadneedle meanwhile declined to comment on competitor's decisions. "We are monitoring the situation of property funds," a spokesperson told CNBC.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2016, 09:46:52 AM »
US oil forms Big-M pattern, break below $45.80 confirms major trend reversal ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.econotimes.com/US-oil-forms-Big-M-pattern-break-below-$4580-confirms-major-trend-reversal-232116


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2016, 01:34:10 PM »
Fed falters as threat of Brexit contagion looms ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/stephen-bartholomeusz/fed-falters-as-threat-of-brexit-contagion-looms/news-story/43ac44e2a48cc3fe108e81ad7439f75b

Australian dollar sags on S&P outlook cut, yen firms ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/yen-firms-sterling-droops-in-early-asian-trade.html

Brexit: Germany vying to emerge as European Union superpower following Britain's exit ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-07/germany-vying-to-emerge-as-eu-superpower-following-brexit/7574604

Families of Jewish refugees who fled the Nazis want to leave UK for Germany after Brexit ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-german-citizenship-jewish-refugees-nazis-freedom-of-movement-a7119541.html

The Brexit contagion could consume the French elite next ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/30-brexit-is-france-next-lecorre

‘Financial contagion’ biggest risk to U.S. from Brexit: Goldman ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-contagion-biggest-risk-to-us-from-brexit-goldman-2016-06-29



Italy may spur Pan-Europe bank crisis, SocGen chairman says ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/italy-could-spark-systemic-banking-crisis-socgen-chairman-says

European stocks slammed after property fund suspensions ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-fall-as-oil-prices-drop-brexit-worries-resurface-2016-07-05

Chart of the Day - US Dollar ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/07/chart-day-247-9.html


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2016, 07:39:30 AM »
Italy’s plan for banks could roil Europe ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/business/dealbook/italys-plan-for-banks-could-roil-europe.html

Italy's teetering banks will be Europe's next crisis ~  7 Jul 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701756-italys-teetering-banks-will-be-europes-next-crisis-italian-job



Italian banks rank among worst in Europe by Texas ratio ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/italian-banks-rank-among-worst-in-europe-by-texas-ratio-chart



Europe’s next financial crisis ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/europes-next-financial-cr_b_10315364.html



The world is changing in ways the British left cannot comprehend ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/strange-death-liberal-politics

In rebound from brutal years, distressed debt returns soar in 2016's first half ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/2016/07/06/in-rebound-from-brutal-years-distressed-debt-returns-soar-in-2016s-first-half



Overcoming a wall of worries ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-fears-are-just-another-brick-in-the-wall-of-worry-2016-06-21







A rule has been broken on Wall Street, and ‘any banker with a brain’ is now looking for an exit ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://globaltimes.info/lifestyle/business/a-rule-has-been-broken-on-wall-street-and-any-banker-with-a-brain-is-now-looking-for-an-exit/



The walking dead: Something is rotten in the banking system ~ 6 Feb 2016
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=43141


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2016, 01:16:09 PM »
Trader bets on another major plunge for Deutsche Bank ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/07/trader-bets-on-another-major-plunge-for-deutsche-bank.html

Brexit set to bash Brits but not bolster Trump: CNBC survey ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/07/brexit-brits-but-not-bolster-trump-clinton-hillary.html

Sharp downgrades to British pound vs Euro & dollar forecasts at Goldmans and JP Morgan ~ 7 Jul 2016
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5148-gbp-vs-eur-and-usd-forecat-jp-morgan

Tony Blair, Iraq and the struggle for the British left: Why the U.K.’s political soap opera is important ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/06/tony_blair_iraq_and_the_struggle_for_the_british_left_why_the_u_k_s_political_soap_opera_is_important/

Brexit signals shift: political risk hits long-stable Western economies ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://blogs.reuters.com/financial-regulatory-forum/2016/07/06/brexit-signals-shift-political-risk-hits-long-stable-western-economies/

Pound crashes below $1.30 and bond yields hit record lows as Brexit aftershocks rattle global markets ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/06/ftse-pound-brexit-asia-markets-turmoil-eu-referendum/



Goldmans Sachs: The pound could crash to $1.20 ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pound-crash-below-130-2016-7


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2016, 06:21:35 PM »
Chart: The epic collapse of Deutsche Bank ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-epic-collapse-deutsche-bank/



Dark days flag up challenges for Deutsche Bank ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20ca7ce0-4503-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html#axzz4DlFGnC00

How Texas demonstrates why Italy's banks are floundering ~ 8 Jul 2016
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13633517/1/how-texas-demonstrates-why-italy-s-banks-are-floundering.html



European banks and the never-ending European crisis ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/european-banks-and-europe%E2%80%99s-never-ending-crisis-200140421

How Italy’s oldest bank lost 99% of its value, and why the rest of the Italian banks are also a basket case ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://business.financialpost.com/news/how-italys-oldest-bank-lost-99-of-its-value-and-why-the-rest-of-the-italian-banks-are-also-a-basket-case


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2016, 06:30:31 PM »
Brexit leaves Dutch property market simmering ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-netherlands-property-idUKKCN0ZO1UV

Commercial property prices could fall 20% after EU vote ~ 8 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/commercial-property-prices-brexit-clauses-ubs

House price growth slowest in pro-Brexit regions ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/house-price-growth-slowest-in-pro-brexit-regions



Europe’s most mortgaged housing market skirts oil crash ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/europe-s-most-mortgaged-housing-skirts-oil-crash




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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2016, 06:45:27 PM »
WTI crude oil closed @ US$45.41 (+0.27, +0.60%), booked a weekly loss of more than 7% ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/oil-prices-edge-up-but-brent-notches-biggest-weekly-drop-since-january

WTI crude oil price forecast: ~13% decline puts fear back in crude bulls ~ 9 Jul 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/07/08/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-13-Decline-Puts-Fear-Back-In-Crude-Bulls-.html


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2016, 07:10:27 AM »
What is the meaning of Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶)? ~ The Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶), in candlestick charting, is a pattern where a black candlestick follows a long white candlestick. It can be an indication of a future bearish trend.



"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

First BOE interest-rate cut since 2009 may come next week ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/first-boe-interest-rate-cut-since-2009-may-come-next-week



Falling gold, rising bonds: bad news for stocks ~ 8 July 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/bond-bubble-to-burst-200140668



Plunging bond yields do not support higher stock valuations ~ 8 July 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987111-plunging-bond-yields-support-higher-stock-valuations



Larry Summers: Interest rates are at inconceivable levels, and we must confront what that means ~ 8 July 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/06/larry-summers-interest-rates-are-at-inconceivable-levels-and-we-must-confront-what-that-means/



Global negative-yielding bond pile nears $10 trillion: Chart ~ 6 July 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/global-negative-yielding-bond-pile-nears-10-trillion-chart


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2016, 08:46:11 AM »
Malaysia central bank cuts overnight policy rate to 3% ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-central-bank-cuts-overnight-policy-rate-to-3-1468395023


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2016, 12:02:56 PM »
UBS said to have flagged suspicious 1MDB transactions to MAS ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/ubs-said-to-have-flagged-suspicious-1mdb-transactions-to-mas

Pua: Deloitte can lodge police report on 1MDB ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/13/pua-deloitte-can-lodge-police-report-on-1mdb/



Malaysia's 1MDB agrees to request for arbitration filed by UAE's IPIC ~ 11 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-scandal-1mdb-idUSL4N19X37P


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2016, 02:17:08 PM »
Indonesia’s sukuk more attractive than Malaysia’s ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2016/07/15/indonesias-sukuk-more-attractive-than-malaysias/

Malaysian bond rally falters as central bank dashes easing odds ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-15/malaysian-bond-rally-falters-as-central-bank-dashes-easing-odds

Malaysian bond: 3-year yield fell to 2.85%; 5-year yield @ 3.22% on 14 Jul 2016.

Ringgit hit a 10-week high after rate cut; BoE stimulus views lift Asia ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-hit-a-10-week-high-after-rate-cut-boe-stimulus-views-lift-asia

Malaysian ringgit: After the central bank's surprise interest rate cut on 13 Jul 2016; the ringgit rose 0.5% to 3.95 per dollar on 14 Jul 2016


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2016, 02:35:08 PM »



英国新财长保证
“竭尽所能”支撑经济
58点看 2016年7月15日
英国新任财政部长哈蒙德。
英国新任财政部长哈蒙德。

(伦敦15日讯)英国新任命的财政部长哈蒙德表示,英国公投决定脱欧“扰乱信心”,他将“竭尽所能”支撑英国经济。


哈蒙德周四受访时说:“第一个挑战就是稳定经济,给未来的信心指出方向,并对市场、企业、国际投资人提出未来计划。”

在脱欧公投后,英镑重挫,消费者信心跌到21年低点,面对这种情况,央行行长卡尼力图摆脱进一步的动荡。

新闻来源:彭博社


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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2016, 02:54:16 PM »
1MDB scandal reaches UBS ~ 12 July 2016
http://www.finews.asia/finance/22618-1mdb-ubs-najib-razak-aabar




Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #25 on: July 16, 2016, 05:45:13 AM »
Bank Negara governor: OPR cut is pre-emptive ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/15/bank-negara-governor-opr-cut-is-preemptive/

Pound on track for its best week since 2009 after Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/14/ftse-100-hits-fresh-11-month-high-and-pound-rises-ahead-of-bank/

Bank of England leaves UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% ~ 14 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/14/bank-of-england-leaves-uk-interest-rates-on-hold-at-05

Maybank lowers interest rates to 3% ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/14/maybank-lowers-interest-rates-by-20bps/

BNM cuts interest rate to 3% ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/13/bnm-cuts-opr-to-3pct-at-its-monetary-policy-committee/

"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

How do changes in national interest rates affect a currency's value and exchange rate?
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040315/how-do-changes-national-interest-rates-affect-currencys-value-and-exchange-rate.asp

How currency changes affect imports and exports
http://study.com/academy/lesson/how-currency-changes-affect-imports-and-exports.html

First BOE interest-rate cut since 2009 may come next week ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/first-boe-interest-rate-cut-since-2009-may-come-next-week


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2016, 10:17:31 AM »
Thousands of Venezuelans cross into Colombia in search of food and medicine ~ 17 Jul 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-colombia-bridge-photo_us_578be683e4b0867123e1ab77









My picture of the week: A roll of toilet paper and right back home ~ 16 Jul 2016
http://www.dw.com/en/my-picture-of-the-week-a-roll-of-toilet-paper-and-right-back-home/av-19403050



Analysis: Venezuelan military had big role in economic woes ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelans-military-begins-campaign-combat-shortages-192006834.html



Venezuela bonds at risk as military takes control ~ 15 July 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/07/15/venezuela-bonds-at-risk-as-military-takes-control/



Venezuela trucks food directly to the poorest as chaos spreads ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/as-chaos-spreads-venezuela-trucks-food-directly-to-the-poorest



In China, Venezuela default talk is front-page news ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/in-china-venezuela-default-talk-is-front-page-news-amid-crisis


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2016, 11:23:35 AM »
Bakery looted amid Venezuela food widespread shortages ~ 29 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Il0ZVy3nyIQ

How the wheels fell off of Venezuela's socialist revolution ~ 23 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkQKJM4s8A0

Footage of Looting & Food Riots in Venezuela ~ 21 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzqYjH0X2WU

Venezuela’s food shortages trigger long lines, hunger and looting ~ 17 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGQ4ZLEM6qA

How Venezuela’s socialist dream collapsed into a nightmare ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/26/11774482/venezuela-socialist-collapse


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2016, 06:30:39 AM »
屋漏偏逢连夜雨,船迟又遇打头风。

Court orders Parkson Retail units’ bank deposits be frozen ~ 19 July 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/19/court-orders-parkson-retail-units-bank-deposits-be-frozen/

Parkson Retail Asia: SGX extends MTP review to September ~ 3 Jun 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/sgx-extends-mtp-review-13-companies-september



Parkson’s decline a sign of the times for retail stores ~ 11 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/11/parksons-decline-a-sign-of-the-times-for-retail-stores/

Stiff competiton: File picture showing workers sorting out packages at an express delivery company in Beijing. Like many other traditional retail stores, Parkson has no answer to the rapid rise of e-commerce. Apart from AliBaba, there are many other websites that cater to e-shoppers. – AFP



JD.com launches drone delivery in rural Jiangsu ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/08/c_135423101.htm



JD.com for the first time used its self-developed drones to deliver online purchases made by villagers in Suqian city of East China's Jiangsu province. JD staffer Liu Genxi, pictured, sends the packages to village shoppers after collecting the delivery from a drone.



Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2016, 03:31:44 PM »
马币再走贬.兑美元跌至4.0420令吉 ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1549194/%E9%A9%AC%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E8%B5%B0%E8%B4%AC%EF%BC%8E%E5%85%91%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E8%B7%8C%E8%87%B340420%E4%BB%A4%E5%90%89



一马发展公司再起波澜,加上云顶卖压大影响,马股和马币双双败走 ~ 21 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__61OCnC6CI

Malaysian shares slide amid global growth woes, 1MDB concerns ~ 21 Jul 2016
asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Malaysian-shares-slide-amid-global-growth-woes-1MDB-concerns

1MDB: Malaysian PM under pressure over $1bn US fraud case ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36852560



美国司法部拟追回1MDB逾十亿美元资产 ~ 20 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31j0OB0OBoM

金融管理局:我国部分银行 反洗黑钱方面有疏漏 ~ 20 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL-hePiZrMk

Nazir Razak did not misuse his position, says CIMB board ~ 19 May 2016
www.todayonline.com/world/asia/nazir-razak-did-not-misuse-his-position-says-cimb-board


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2016, 05:26:23 PM »
Singapore puts 1MDB-linked banks on notice: We’re not done ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/singapore-puts-banks-linked-to-1mdb-on-notice-we-re-not-done



Ringgit heads for worst week since September on oil, 1MDB woes ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-22/emerging-assets-fall-on-outlook-for-less-stimulus-ringgit-drops



1MDB: Malaysia AG's response to US DOJ suit raises serious concerns ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/1mdb-malaysia-ags-response-us-doj-suit-raises-serious-concerns-111752

US lawsuits reveal Jho Low used father, brother to divert 1MDB-linked funds ~ 22 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/349518



Jho Low gambled away millions from 1MDB funds in Las Vegas casinos: US DOJ

By Jude Chan
July 21, 2016   

Malaysian businessman Low Taek Jho, also known as Jho Low, gambled away millions of dollars which he had misappropriated from Malaysian state development fund 1MDB at Las Vegas casinos, according to the US Department of Justice.

The details came to light as US Attorney General Loretta Lynch on Wednesday announced a civil action seeking the recovery of more than US$1 billion (S$1.36 billion) worth of assets linked to a conspiracy to launder funds taken from 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).

US authorities also accused Red Granite Pictures of using US$100 million that was diverted from 1MDB to finance the film “The Wolf of Wall Street”. Red Granite is helmed by Riza Aziz, the step-son of Malaysia Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who oversaw the 1MDB fund.

According to the 136-page court papers, 1MDB-linked funds were used to fund the luxurious lifestyles enjoyed by Low and his associates, including Aziz.

Low allegedly gambled for approximately seven days at the Venetian Casino after US$11 million was deposited into his account at the casino on 10 July 2012.

On 15 July 2012, several individuals reportedly gambled with Low at the casino, using his account. These individuals included Aziz, Eric Tan Kim Loong, and at least one former official from 1MDB.

Tan, an associate of Low, was the stated beneficial owner of several bank accounts into which misappropriated 1MDB funds were transferred.

Over a period of less than eight months from 30 October 2009 to 18 June 2010, more than US$85 million in funds traceable to a Swiss bank account held in the name of Good Star Ltd was wired to Las Vegas casinos, luxury yacht rental companies, business jet rental vendors, a London interior decorator, and associates and family members of Low, among others.

According to banking records, Good Star was a company controlled by Low, and Low was also the Good Star account’s beneficial owner and sole authorized signatory.

Wire transfers between October 2009 and October 2010 included approximately US$12 million in wires to Caesars Palace, a Las Vegas casino; and approximately US$13.4 million in wires to the Las Vegas Sands Corp, the owner of the Venetian Las Vegas casino.

Riza Aziz said US$94m siphoned from 1MDB was a 'gift', DOJ claims ~ 21 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/349361



‘Wolf of Wall Street’ film was financed with stolen money: feds ~ 20 Jul 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/07/20/wolf-of-wall-street-was-financed-with-stolen-money-feds/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2016, 08:38:55 AM »
Azmin: Najib must address nation on 1MDB scandal ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/21/azmin-najib-must-address-nation-on-1mdb-scandal/

Declassify 1MDB audit or fuel cover-up beliefs, Azmin tells PM ~ 15 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/348617



Malaysia foreign exchange reserves at US$97.3 billion as at 15 July 2016
http://www.bnm.gov.my/

Malaysia foreign exchange reserves (1997-2016)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-exchange-reserves

Malaysia foreign exchange reserves decreased to US$97,200m in June from US$97,263.17m May 2016. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Malaysia averaged US$83,120.69m from 1997 until 2016, reaching an all time high of US$155,165.30m in Aug 2011 and a record low of US$20,234.20m in Aug 1998.





Malaysia bond yields fall to lowest since 2013 on surprise OPR cut ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/14/malaysia-bond-yields-fall-to-lowest-since-2013-on-surprise-opr-cut/

Interest due on 1MDB bond paid by Abu Dhabi guarantor ~ 11 May 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-due-on-1mdb-bond-paid-by-abu-dhabi-guarantor-1462959185



Market braces for second 1MDB bond payment ~ 10 May 2016
http://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/market-braces-for-second-1mdb-bond-payment/ar-BBsQ1sL



Malaysia central bank takes dollar deposits as ringgit sinks ~ 30 Oct 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/malaysia-central-bank-said-to-take-interbank-dollar-deposits

Malaysia’s eventual fall from grace ~ 22 Oct 2015
http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2015/10/22/malaysias-eventual-fall-from-grace/



Malaysia government’s decision not to peg ringgit appropriate, says economist ~ 30 Sep 2015
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/governments-decision-not-to-peg-ringgit-appropriate-says-economist

Malaysia turns to 1998 currency peg architect as markets bleed ~  27 Aug 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/malaysia-turns-to-1998-currency-peg-architect-as-markets-bleed

Emerging world battles the mighty US dollar

By Michael Collins, Investment Commentator at Fidelity
2 June 2015

When the Federal Reserve embarked on its third dose of quantitative easing in 2012, Brazil’s then-finance minister Guido Mantega slammed the Fed’s decision as the start of a “currency war”. The Fed was doing no such deliberate deed. But it was true to warn that a side effect of asset buying that reduced longer-term interest rates was a lower US dollar.

Wonder how Mantega feels now that the 28% plunge in the real against the US currency in the year to May is tormenting Brazil’s economy. So October last year, the central bank has raised its benchmark rate in six steps to a six-year high of 13.75% to prop up the real and fight the inflationary consequences of the currency’s dive. Inflation reached 8.2% in the 12 months ended April, while Brazil’s economy is headed for its worst recession in 25 years, if not 80 years.



One of the US dollar’s speediest ascents since President Richard Nixon ended gold conversion in 1971 is creating similar woes across the emerging world, especially in Chile, Hungary, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and Venezuela. The US dollar has soared 19% over the 12 months to May on a trade-weighted basis as it climbed against about three-quarters of the 24 emerging currencies. The US dollar’s climb is even quicker and steeper than its rise in the mid-1990s that triggered the Asia crisis of 1997, smashed Brazil and pushed Russia to default in 1998.

A stronger US dollar poses many of the same threats for emerging markets as it did a quarter of a century ago with one fresh twist. The dangers of a higher US dollar, as with 25 years ago, are that it savages living standards and fans inflation via higher import prices. (For those emerging countries with currencies tied to the US dollar, it batters export competitiveness.) Simply via the cross rates, a rising US dollar undermines commodity prices in US dollars, so many emerging countries are facing a collapse in export earnings. Lastly, it boosts debt repayments on US-dollar loans.

The last challenge comes in a different form than in the past and could be the most worrying of all. In emerging countries, companies – rather than governments – are holding record amounts of US-dollar debt. Thus, unlike the past, it’s the corporate bond market in the emerging world that is a bigger menace than the government bond market. Corporate default rates and downgrades are rising as emerging-market companies – from state-owned oil giants in Brazil and Russia, to Indian infrastructure companies, to domestic players with earnings only in local currency in China and Turkey – are tottering under US-dollar debts. State-owned Russian gas producer OAO Gazprom, for example, has borrowed US$12 billion (A$16 billion) since 2008, while Chinese property company Kaisa, which has defaulted on US$1.25 billion worth of bonds, has sold double that amount. (Quasi-government bodies are struggling too – Malaysia’s state investment company, 1Malaysia Development Bhd, was restructured to avoid collapse.)

Emerging currencies are tumbling, for capital flows are heading back to the US because the Fed is poised to raise the cash rate for the first time in nine years, such is its confidence in the US economy. Emerging nations could be headed for big trouble if the Fed lifts rates faster and by more than expected over the coming 12 months. Among all the fretting from emerging nations about the strong US dollar, they should remember two truths. First of all, home-grown causes are behind much of the dive in their currencies. The other is that the opposite scenario – a falling US dollar – would probably be a bigger hurdle for it would hamper the only fall-back plan most have for reviving their economies.

Perhaps US rate increases are built into expectations thanks to the Fed “dot plots” of where it expects US rates to be in coming times. Some of the emerging-country exposure to US-dollar loans is hedged through derivatives. Unexpected and rapid-fire US rate increases will disrupt more than emerging countries too. Interest rates around the world are lower than they were in the 1990s and the US dollar is not as strong, so the repayment burden imposed by these factors is relatively lighter than it was back then. Emerging governments are better insulated than their companies for they have preferred to borrow in local currency. Emerging Asia overall is well placed with its deeper foreign reserves, sounder banking systems and more flexible exchange rates, even if governments and consumers have borrowed heavily in local currency. Asian ex-China companies are said to earn enough US-dollar revenue to match their US-dollar debts. While many of its companies are vulnerable, China’s pegged (thus rising) yuan helps to steer its economy away from exports and towards consumption. The pressure of the rising US dollar is spurring reforms that the emerging world would have postponed if capital were still flowing in. The Indian rupee’s record low of 2013 is credited with granting the Reserve Bank of India the political space to raise interest rates three times to tackle inflation, while New Delhi has taken steps to curb its deficit and welcome more foreign investment. Indonesia has taken similar steps. But alas there are enough debt-heavy companies in the emerging world to cause ructions if US rates (and thus the US dollar) rise suddenly or by more-than-expected. Naturally, these corporate woes would shift onto governments, especially when state companies are in trouble.

Looked sound

Companies in the emerging world latched onto borrowing in US dollars because US interest rates have been below local rates since the Fed cut the US cash rate to close to zero in 2008 and embarked on three asset-buying programs from early 2009. Global bond managers were happy to buy US-dollar emerging bonds because the returns were higher than they could find on US government or US corporate bonds. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that from 2008 to 2014 US-dollar credit to non-bank borrowers in the emerging world jumped from US$2 trillion to about US$4.5 trillion, about the half the global amount outstanding. Within this total, US-dollar credit to Brazil, China and India has more than tripled to US$1.4 billion. Chinese non-bank companies have US$1.1 trillion of this.

This lending includes loans from banks and bond investors. (A bond is just a loan that can be resold.) Much of the bank lending happened outside the US banking system because non-US banks can easily attract deposits of the world’s foremost reserve currency. These lenders and borrowers are thus beyond the help of their local central banks, which can only act as lender of last resort in local currency. They are essentially subjects of the Fed while being outside the Fed’s jurisdiction.

Companies found it easier to borrow than attract equity investment because presumably equity investors saw them as too risky. Emerging companies were well aware of the currency risk of borrowing in US dollars. But those engaged in trade thought this peril was counterbalanced by their US-dollar earnings. They didn’t appear to allow for the cross-rates effect on commodities from a higher US dollar; when commodities prices drop in US dollars but remain steady in local currency for that’s all people can afford. They seem to have made no allowance for the possibility that materials and energy prices could plunge due to supply-demand imbalances. Fed rate increases will only add to their repayment burden. The global financial system thus confronts a new weak link; rollovers of maturing emerging corporate debt, especially by first-time issuers. J.P. Morgan expects the default rate among emerging-market high-yield corporate issuers to reach 5.4% this year compared with 3.2% in 2014 and about 2% in the US.

Authorities in emerging markets are devouring forex reserves to support their currencies, in part to shield their companies. IMF data shows forex reserves in emerging economies fell US$115 billion to US$7.74 trillion last year, the first drop since the series was compiled in 1995. Governments of commodity-dependent emerging countries are already losing tax revenue from the drop in commodities and confront economic slowdowns that will boost welfare spending. Their budgets won’t cope easily with nursing companies wobbling under US debt loads. Thus sovereign ratings are vulnerable. At the same time, the current-account deficits of these countries are widening as export earnings droop. In another crunch to domestic growth, local interest rates need to rise to attract the capital needed to cover current-account shortfalls as well as to curtail inflationary pressures from higher import prices. Thus growth prospects are diminishing in the emerging world, a formula for more political instability. Emerging-world debt is now attracting a higher premium to allow for increased political risk.

Dead end

The countries and companies that face the most problems do so in no small part because missteps by their governments have undermined currencies, on top of the fact that most left themselves over-reliant on a few commodities, if not one. Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is threatened with impeachment over a multi-billion-US-dollar bribery scandal tied to the state oil company, Petrobras, that she oversaw as chair. Oil-dependent Russia’s economy is expected to contract about 4% this year as western sanctions in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine bite. South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma is mired in scandals including one over a state-funded home renovation. Turkey’s government is threatening the independence of the country’s central bank and investors are concerned about the country’s economic policy after parliamentary elections in June. Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy is expected to shrink 7% this year as the country groans under a shortage of daily necessities and an estimated inflation rate of 70%, conditions all made worse because the US has imposed sanctions to protest against a crackdown on dissidents by President Nicolás Maduro. (Argentina would be on the list but it’s already defaulted.)

Given all the angst about a rising US dollar, it may be a relief for emerging countries that their currencies gained against the greenback in recent months, especially April when 17 of 24 emerging currencies tracked by Bloomberg rose. Russia’s ruble rallied 13% in April, the best month for a currency that halved in 2014 since 1993. Brazil’s real jumped 8% the same month, its first gain since August. Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened 3.9%, its biggest gain since 2012, while Korea’s won added 3.8%, its best spurt since 2011. South Africa’s rand might have only edged up 1.5% but that gain ended five months of losses.

But it was only less-optimistic readings on the US economy that boosted these emerging currencies in April. Weaker reports on US housing, employment and retail sales that culminated in the US economy shrinking at an annualised rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of this year have prompted talk the Fed would postpone its first rate increase until later in the year or even into 2016.

A lower US dollar due to a weaker US economy will hardly help the hardest-hit countries that for the most part are falling back on the default plan for weak-willed countries with savaged currencies – to bank on the US consumer to buy their exports.

A slowing US economy only dims hopes for export-led recoveries in these countries, which already rely on US demand. About 10% of Brazil’s export goods, for starters, head to the US. The numbers for Chile, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Venezuela are 13%, 12%, 9%, 8%, 6% and 34%. The emerging world is far better off with a powering US economy, even if that comes with a higher US dollar. It’s thus better authorities in the emerging world take steps that impress investors rather than whine about a high US dollar or wish for a weaker one.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #32 on: July 27, 2016, 06:07:07 PM »
Deloitte tries to quit as 1MDB auditor, as international investigations of fund tied to Malaysia PM Najib heat up ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deloitte-tries-to-quit-as-1mdb-auditor-as-international-investigations-of-fund-tied-to-malaysia-pm-najib-heat-up.html



Malaysia PM Najib Razak gets new powers amid protests over 1MDB fund scandal ~ 27 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/malaysia-pm-najib-razak-gets-new-powers-amid-protests-over-1mdb-fund-scandal



Malaysia won’t interfere with foreign 1MDB legal action ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-wont-interfere-with-foreign-1mdb-legal-action-1469530664



1MDB: Goldman Sachs faces suit over ties to Malaysian fund ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/26/1mdb-goldman-sachs-faces-lawsuit-over-ties-to-malaysian-fun.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2016, 08:54:18 AM »
Massive blow to millions of bank customers as HSBC threatens negative interest ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3710269/Now-HSBC-threatens-negative-Santander-plots-slash-rate.html

Three things that show investors are making a huge bet on low interest rates ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/three-things-that-show-investors-are-making-a-huge-bet-on-low-interest-rates

Negative interest rates: Spreading like a financial cancer ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3992478-negative-interest-rates-spreading-like-financial-cancer



Dollar tumbles as Fed stresses gradual path for interest rates ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/dollar-falls-as-fed-underscores-gradual-path-for-interest-rates



Peter Schiff calls Fed's bluff; Scott nations folds ~ 27 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bHKMyrr-iY

Global negative-yielding bond pile nears $10 trillion: Chart ~ 6 July 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/global-negative-yielding-bond-pile-nears-10-trillion-chart



Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade ~ 18 Mar 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-cenbanks-rates-idUSKCN0WB1QG


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2016, 05:17:24 PM »
受一马案原油价影响令吉再次跌破3.00

28 Jul 2016

受到一马公司洗黑钱事件,加上原油价格继续趋弱,令吉再次跌破3.00,分析师预估,不排除或会持续下跌至3.20。

今早新元兑令吉的银行间兑换率,一度高达到1比3.01。而国际原油价则已跌至每桶为44美元。对此,受访的分析师预估,随着一马公司洗黑钱事件尚未平息,外加上国际原油价格下跌,一旦令吉跌破3.05,不排除会继续跌至3.20。

泰源私人有限公司技术分析培训主管王玢霓受访时表示,一般来说,令吉2.85至3.00之间的价位属于正常波动,不过今早已跌破了3.00。

一些钱币商,1新元可换3令吉。



Nurul Izzah wants Malaysians to focus on 1MDB ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/28/nurul-izzah-wants-malaysians-to-focus-on-1mdb/



The Guardian view on Malaysian politics: a scandal meriting the world’s attention ~ 28 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/28/the-guardian-view-on-malaysian-politics-a-scandal-meriting-the-worlds-attention



1MDB: The inside story of the world’s biggest financial scandal ~ 28 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/28/1mdb-inside-story-worlds-biggest-financial-scandal-malaysia



Ringgit extends July slump as oil falls, 1MDB returns to focus ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/ringgit-extends-july-slump-as-oil-falls-1mdb-returns-to-focus

Fund lawyer who worked with Goldman holds 1MDB clues, U.S. says ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/fund-lawyer-who-worked-with-goldman-holds-1mdb-clues-u-s-says

Deloitte tries to quit as 1MDB auditor, as international investigations of fund tied to Malaysia PM Najib heat up ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deloitte-tries-to-quit-as-1mdb-auditor-as-international-investigations-of-fund-tied-to-malaysia-pm-najib-heat-up.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2016, 11:07:26 PM »
Malaysia valuation and property services department
http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal

首季屋价涨幅跌破7%‧5年新低 ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1551120/%E9%A6%96%E5%AD%A3%E5%B1%8B%E4%BB%B7%E6%B6%A8%E5%B9%85%E8%B7%8C%E7%A0%B47%E2%80%A75%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B0%E4%BD%8E

2016年第一季初步全屋价指数涨幅跌破7%,创5年新低纪录,大马房地产评估及服务局预测,受全球经济状况不稳定影响,2016及2017年产业市场将持续放缓,但不至于导致市场崩盘。


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2016, 03:45:37 PM »
No break for worst Asian currency as clouds gather over Malaysia ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-04/no-break-for-worst-asian-currency-as-clouds-gather-over-malaysia



Hike in Singapore wages could draw more Malaysian professionals ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/hike-singapore-wages-could-draw-more-malaysian-professionals



Red Shirts ready to counter Bersih 5, says Jamal ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/08/03/red-shirts-ready-to-counter-bersih-5-says-jamal/



Bersih 5 rally confirmed ~ 3 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNQ0mp-lig8



Gerakan Youth offers to secure stadium for Bersih 5 rally ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/gerakan-youth-offers-to-secure-stadium-for-bersih-5-rally



RM1.154 million from 1MDB was spent on 'anti-ageing' products for "B1 and wife"! exclusive ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/08/rm-one-million-of-1mdb-money-on-anti-ageing-products-for-b1-and-wife-exclusive/

1MDB scandal: US DoJ's civil suit to recover state fund's monies a 'private matter' says Minister ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/1mdb-scandal-us-dojs-civil-suit-recover-state-funds-monies-private-matter-says-minister-1573743

Goldman Sachs subpoenaed by U.S. agencies for documents related to 1MDB ~ 29 July 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-sachs-subpoenaed-by-u-s-agencies-for-documents-related-to-1mdb-1469838131

U.S. lawsuits link Malaysian leader to stolen money from 1MDB fund  ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-scandal-usa-idUSKCN10009X


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #37 on: August 14, 2016, 10:32:11 AM »
Singapore cuts top end of 2016 GDP forecast on weak outlook ~ 11 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-11/singapore-lowers-top-end-of-2016-gdp-forecast-on-weaker-outlook


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #38 on: August 14, 2016, 10:48:53 AM »
'Bank Negara, governor's credibility at stake over kid gloves on 1MDB' ~ 13 Aug 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/352141

‘1MDB case is closed’ ~ 13 Aug 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/08/13/1mdb-case-is-closed-bank-negara-investigations-over-and-proper-action-has-been-taken/

1MDB: The case that has riveted Malaysia ~ 22 July 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33447456


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #39 on: August 17, 2016, 12:08:06 PM »
丑闻缠身大马急售重要资产 港媒忧中国区域势力坐大 ~ 16 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3aGIFMoJw

The hidden costs of China’s lifeline in the 1MDB scandal

By Sheridan Mahareva
16 August 2016

With Malaysia facing long-term repercussions for embracing Chinese money, experts warn prime minister is turning a personal scandal into a national problem

By spending about RM16 billion ringgit (US$4 billion) on troubled Malaysian state investor 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), China has bought a lot of clout in the corridors of power in this Southeast Asian nation.

Last month’s civil suit by U.S. authorities against personalities tied to 1MDB and their assets comes as local leaders worry the global financial scandal will have a deeper impact.

It is not just a question of whether Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak will serve out his term, or whether 1MDB’s mammoth debts will be fully repaid.

It is also now the country’s shrinking ability to chart independent domestic and foreign policy, because of the expensive deals — overt and covert — that will have to be made to resolve the scandal.

Some 1MDB critics also claim it is no coincidence the suit by the U.S.’ Department of Justice comes at a time of growing Chinese influence in Najib’s administration.

They point to the backdrop of the South China Sea disputes, where Malaysia and other Association of Southeast Asian (Asean) countries are locked in overlapping territorial claims with Beijing, and where the United States wants to maintain its dominance.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets and property in November and December to two separate Chinese firms last year was part of the company’s push to raise money to pay the company’s debts.

1MDB, which is Najib’s brain child and whose advisory board he heads, racked up RM42 billion in debts within five years of operation. A former prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, described 1MDB as the country’s single largest financial scandal and has been campaigning for Najib to resign.

Although Najib has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, the U.S. civil suit pointedly states that US$3.5 billion was “stolen from 1MDB” by its officials and their associates. Of that amount, about US$1 billion was laundered through the US and used to buy lavish properties, expensive paintings and pay gambling expenses in the U.S.

China’s purchases of 1MDB assets had helped reduce its debts to RM40.4 billion, Najib said in his 2016 New Year’s Day address. But at least one deal was controversial.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets to China General Nuclear Power Corp would have breached the limit of foreign ownership rules for local electricity companies.

1MDB critic and opposition law maker Rafizi Ramli had campaigned unsuccessfully to block the sale, claiming that it would threaten local jobs in the energy sector.

“Allowing a foreign company to fully control electricity production operations for a major national power producer has great risk.

“Electricity supply could be disrupted if there are future problems and the increase in tariffs would be based on the interests of these foreign companies,” Rafizi said last November.

Another parliamentarian, Wong Chen, said in the end the cabinet allowed an exemption to the foreign equity rules so that the deal could go through.

The government had made an exception, because it was desperate to bring in money to pay 1MDB’s debts, Wong said.

“There will be long-term geopolitical repercussions for Malaysia, because of this intense interest in embracing Chinese money,” Wong told This Week in Asia.

The trend of favouring mainland companies over others in large infrastructure projects in the future was likely to continue, said another parliamentarian, Charles Santiago.

The RM50 billion Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail project is another venture that could involve either expertise or money from China, he said.

“The Najib administration had also floated the idea of a nuclear power plant and this too could involve money from China.”

In Sarawak, a region that straddles the island of Borneo in East Malaysia, China’s pull in Malaysia is already affecting the incomes of local fishermen.

Reports from late last year claimed that Sarawakian fishermen — like their counterparts in Indonesia and the Philippines — had been chased away from their traditional fishing grounds in the Luconia Shoals by armed Chinese vessels.

In March, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Authority (MMEA) had reportedly spotted a fleet of Chinese trawlers fishing in the area.

Malaysia claims the shoals as being in its waters. But unlike Indonesia and the Philippines, it has yet to confront or capture Chinese fishing boats that poach in the area, despite vowing to do so.

Malaysia’s low key approach could be due to both China’s help with 1MDB and the country’s history with the superpower, said Dr Tang Siew Mun, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Malaysia was the first Asean state to normalise relations with Beijing [in the 1960s] and it was the current prime minister’s father who paved the way for the renewed bilateral relations,” Tang said.

“Malaysia’s growing dependence on China for not only trade but investment, too, has had a direct impact on its response to the South China Sea disputes.”

In June, Malaysia unilaterally released what was supposed to be a joint-Asean statement on disputes in the South China sea, after an Asean meeting with China in Kunming (??). However, the statement was retracted hours later, raising eyebrows all-round as to why Malaysia did it — to force Asean’s hand or to show China up.

Tang of ISEAS believes China is likely to continue to deploy large-scale fishing fleets to affirm its claims over the sea. This could trigger more friction between the maritime forces and fishing fleets of Malaysia and China.

“This puts pressure on Malaysia to respond to these Chinese intrusions, pitting its political-economic [interests] against strategic interests,” said Tang.

In the end, said lawmaker Santiago, “Najib has succeeded in turning his personal scandal into a national problem”.

Sheridan Mahareva is a Kuala Lumpur-based journalist.

潘俭伟反击纳吉:巫统领袖才"反马来人" ~ 14 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKmgSKBfA5k



纳吉再撇清一马案 遗憾商业课题遭政治化 ~ 5 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wbpv8y26Y8


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #40 on: August 19, 2016, 09:53:07 AM »
The land of Genghis Khan is having an epic economic meltdown ~ 18 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/lessons-from-the-epic-economic-meltdown-on-the-border-of-china





库存压力仍较大 玉米市场长期依旧看空 ~ 18 Aug 2016
http://www.tech-food.com/news/detail/n1297219.htm

Expert: Corn could be culprit for low prices ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/news/local/4095753-expert-corn-could-be-culprit-low-prices

内蒙古和东北部分地区遭受旱灾 直接经济损失84亿 ~ 10 Aug 2016
http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2016/08-10/7967910.shtml



Floods devastate pig farms across China ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/42171/floods-devastate-pig-farms-across-china/[/img]



Recession hits China — long with 10% growth ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-02/recession-hits-china-along-with-10-growth-as-provinces-diverge


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #41 on: August 20, 2016, 06:57:46 AM »
Swiber's creditors can get insight into firm's finances next month ~ 20 Aug 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/swibers-creditors-can-get-insight-into-firms-finances-next-month
Beleaguered offshore marine group Swiber Holdings has received claims totalling about US$135.9 million as at Aug 18.

Swiber aside, the O&G nightmare for banks is far from over

By Gwyneth Yeo
August 18, 2016

Maybank Kim Eng is maintaining its negative rating on the Singapore banking sector, amid concerns over potential defaults and non-performing loans from highly leveraged oil & gas (O&G) support services companies.

Maybank Kim Eng’s Ng Li Hiang says the Swiber episode has highlighted the “elevated risks to Singapore banks’ balance-sheet exposure to the beleaguered O&G support services sector”. In particular, Ng notes that asset quality among banks had deteriorated in 2QFY2016 on the back of new non-performing assets from the sector.

To be sure, the O&G sector is not the only one facing challenges in this business environment. “Although O&G is not the only sector to face further asset quality deterioration, in the face of a broader sluggish economic growth environment, it is arguably the biggest pressure point amongst the various sectors’ loan exposure at this moment,” says Ng in a note on Thursday.

Bond yields have risen for some of the smaller O&G players in Singapore to between 25% and 30% according to Maybank Kim Eng’s estimates. At the same time, some Singapore-listed O&G companies like Cosco Corporation, Vard Holdings, Otto Marine and Ezra are overleveraged with a net debt to equity ratio of more than 100%.

In particular, O&G support services companies have some of the largest exposure to local lenders. DBS Group Holdings has the largest exposure among Singapore banks as 7% of its loans are for the O&G sector with 5% for the higher risk upstream and support services segments. In contrast, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation had a 6% exposure to O&G companies and 3% to the upstream and support services segments. United Oversea Bank has the lowest exposure, with 4% loans for the O&G sector and 2% for the upstream and support services segment.

Maybank Kim Eng estimates that Singapore banks’ non-performing loan ratio for the O&G support services is between 3% and 15%, which Ng says “is low given where the credit cycle stands today”.

If NPL (non performing loan) ratio reached 20% and 30% levels, Ng observed that the potential increase in specific provisions for DBS would be the largest among the three banks, of between 216% and 374%. In comparison, UOB’s specific provisions would increase 43% to 115%, and OCBC’s would increase by 34% to 101%.

Splitting the increased provisions evenly over FY2016 and FY2017, earnings for DBS will fall the most at between 3% and 5%, and UOB’s earnings will fall the least by 1% to 2%.

On the other hand, all three banks’ book values are expected to see minimal impact of less than 0.5% from higher NPL ratios.

Shares in DBS, OCBC, and UOB are trading at $14.77, $8.42, and $17.56 respectively at noon.

Swiber’s bankruptcy debacle: Here’s 1 investing lesson you shouldn’t miss

By Hui Leong Chin
August 17, 2016

It was an announcement that caught the market by surprise. And, there might be a lesson in there for investors.

On 28 July 2016, Swiber Holdings Limited  (SGX: BGK) revealed that it had filed an application to wind itself up. Prior to that, Swiber stated it had received letters of demand for payments totaling US$25.9 million. To compound the issue, the services provider to the oil and gas industry also failed in a recent attempt to raise US$200 million from a preference share sale agreement.

Then, came the next surprise. Swiber swiftly changed its mind about winding up and decided to place itself under judicial management instead. Interestingly, the judicial management decision came after Swiber had discussions with a “major financial creditor.”

The oil and gas conundrum

The oil and gas industry has been under pressure over the past year and a half and has dragged the banking sector in Singapore through the sludge as well. 

As the Swiber debacle unfolded, DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05), Singapore’s largest bank, revealed that it had about S$700 million worth of exposure to the oil and gas firm.

The swift implosion at Swiber caught DBS by surprise. In a recent press conference, DBS’s chief executive Piyush Gupta said that there was little indication the implosion would happen.

A tale of two different bank views

Earlier this year, Gupta had noted that the oil and gas support services sector – which Swiber belongs to – was under some stress.

But, Gupta said that 80% of loans DBS had extended to the sector were secured with assets with a loan-to-value (LTV) in the region of 50% to 60% of the assets’ latest appraised values. Gupta also cited an example of a liquidation of collateral where DBS was able to recover the full value of its loans. He said that the example gave him some assurance that the appraised values were realizable.

This assumption might be put to the test again at Swiber.

Elsewhere, Gupta’s counterpart at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Limited (SGX: O39)  sounded less sanguine. At around the same time Gupta made his comments about the strength of DBS’s loans to the oil and gas support services sector, Samuel Tsien, OCBC’s chief executive, said that OCBC was trying hard to make sure that the vessels of the companies it had lent to remain employed.

In Tsien’s view, he would rather have the vessels be at work rather than have his borrowers be out of business and hence, liquidating their assets. OCBC thinks that having loans that are secured with assets may not be enough. Tsien was concerned that there might not be buyers for distressed assets in an oversupplied market.

So for investors interested in banks or oil & gas companies, will Gupta prove to be right in his assessment? Or will Tsien’s reasoning prevail?

I will take door number three, please

If you are feeling confused, there is at least one more person for company: The debacle makes my head spin.

To be sure, I can understand both Tsien’s and Gupta’s points of view. I appreciate each CEO’s reasoning. It is also within my ability to understand how banks operate. The same goes for oil and gas companies.

But understanding something does not mean I can make a good judgement on the situation. The range of possible outcomes are too difficult for me to judge.

As such, the best investment move for me is to avoid such questions altogether. I don’t feel like I have an edge in figuring out a situation like this.

Ergo, I would rather put the “Swibers” and “DBS-es” of the world into my “too hard” bucket. I think that investors should recognise that there is always a third door: You can choose to completely avoid particular companies if the understanding isn’t there. I would even argue that this should be the first question to be asked when looking at an investment opportunity for the first time.

The best investment lesson from the Swiber debacle might be the reminder that we always have choice of only investing in companies in which we can make good judgements on and avoiding those that we can’t.

S'pore feels aftershocks of Swiber's fall ~ 17 Aug 2016
http://business.asiaone.com/news/spore-feels-aftershocks-swibers-fall


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #42 on: August 20, 2016, 03:52:23 PM »
China's empty oceans ~ 17 Aug 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-17/it-s-up-to-china-to-save-asia-s-oceans

Chinese are the world's biggest seafood consumers.



China pledges to cut size of its massive fishing fleet due to serious threat to nation’s fish stocks

By Stephen Chen
15 August 2016

Government minister says industry must develop in a way that is not destructive to the environment

Overfishing in Chinese rivers and seas has seriously depleted stocks and the government is to cut the size of the nation’s fishing fleet, the agricultural ministry said.

A well-known fishermen in Tanmen, Hainan province, said local fishermen have been told not to increase their fleet while counterparts in other provinces have been told to cut the number of ships by 3 per cent.

The ministry said there were practically “no fish” in the coastal East China Sea and fishermen also had a hard time finding a catch in many other coastal waters, according to a state radio report on Sunday.

Agriculture minister Han Changfu told China National Radio that it was time to trim China’s fishing fleet, the world’s largest, to protect fish stocks.

Han, the minister in charge of the fishery sector, listed a series of actions the department planned to take against the industry’s overexpansion, including cutting the number of fishing vessels.

China’s deep-sea fishing in the world’s oceans must develop under tightened regulations, supervision and self-discipline, “gradually getting rid of the outdated ways of production that are destructive to the environment,” Han said.

The minister did not provide figures for plans to cut the fishing fleet.

He said, however, that the proposals would ultimately help raise fishermen’s incomes.

The ministry says Chinese controlled seas can sustain a catch of between eight million to nine million tonnes per year, but in recent years the catch has been about 13 million tonnes.

Similar depletions have also occurred in inland waterways.

For instance, the top four fish species now lay less than one billion eggs a year in rivers, down from about 30 billion, the radio report said, citing agricultural ministry data.

China consumes more than a third of the world’s seafood supply.

The World Bank forecasts demand for seafood in China will increase by another 30 per cent by 2030.

Many coastal provinces in China give diesel subsidies to ocean-going trawlers, helping to increase the number in operation.

As the fuel counts for more than a third of the fishing industry’s operational costs, according to some mainland media reports, the subsidies allowed the fleet’s production capacity to double between 2012 and 2014.

Poor catches in coastal waters have driven Chinese fishermen further afield, including to disputed waters near China and even as far as the Indian Ocean. Japan’s government protested earlier this month after more than 230 Chinese fishing boats and armed coastguard ships sailed into the waters near the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.

China’s strengthening of territorial claims over the South China Sea has also pushed fishermen in Hainan to go further to fish, and with government subsidies.

He Shixuan, the fisherman from Tanmen who owns five steel-hulled trawlers, said fishermen there were also affected by the policy to cut back the size of fleets.

“While our counterparts in other provinces are required to slash up to three per cent, in Hainan we’re only required to retain zero growth,” he said.

With more than 40 years’ experience at sea, He recalled how in his youth fish could be seen where you looked, but today one has to search hard for a catch.

“One third of fish in the sea has gone over the past few years,” he said. “Compared with the 1980s, fish stocks have fallen by 60 per cent.”

China has taken several steps to curb overfishing, including banning nets with extremely small holes that catch very young fish and sea creatures.

It also imposes a three-month offshore fishing moratorium every year.

The decision to reduce the fishing fleets was “certainly a good thing to do”, but not enough, said Professor Cai Shengli, a marine biologist at the College of Fisheries and Life Science at Shanghai Ocean University.

If the government removed smaller, older boats from the fleet the industry would build bigger vessels capable of longer-distance voyages as long as Chinese consumers’ demand for seafood kept growing at a “scary pace”, Cai said.

A possible solution was to convert trawlermen to fish farmers, he said.

Some coastal provinces have established aquatic farms in fishing villages, producing a greater output than the annual catch in recent years.

This has raised hopes that China can meet demand for seafood without exhausting global fish stocks.

The downside of fish farms was the added pollution they contributed to coastal cities, plus a limited number of suitable locations.

This might lead the Chinese government to subsidise fish farms in more distant waters, such as in the South China Sea, Cai said.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2016, 10:12:32 AM »
Venezuela’s oil output set to collapse as 1 million take to the streets ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuelas-Oil-Output-Set-To-Collapse-As-1-Million-Take-To-The-Streets.html

Venezuela's government fights to disrupt massive protest against president ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/caracas-venezuela-maduro-demonstration-1.3745415
Inflation, crime and food shortages spark demand for referendum to remove Maduro

Venezuela protests: Large anti-Maduro march held in Caracas ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37243191


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2016, 10:28:41 AM »
Singapore: 38 new Zika cases reported on Friday, bringing total to 189 ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/38-new-zika-cases-4-have-no-known-links-any-existing-cluster



Singapore a 'role model' in handling Zika outbreak: WHO ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/no-evidence-of-olympic-zika-spread-who-committee-says/3096144.html?cid=fbcna



Zika in Malaysia: What you need to know about the virus ~ 1 Sep 2016
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/09/169858/zika-malaysia-what-you-need-know-about-virus-video

Malaysia reports first case of Zika virus ~ 1 Sep 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/malaysia-reports-case-zika-virus-160901053721835.html

Singapore's surge in Zika cases amplifies economic fears ~ 30 Aug 2016
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Singapores-surge-in-Zika-infection-cases-worries-the-nation-and-beyond


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #45 on: September 08, 2016, 06:12:43 AM »
Deutsche Bank: Here's which countries would suffer the most from five major economic shocks ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/deutsche-bank-here-s-which-countries-would-suffer-the-most-from-five-major-economic-shocks

Many Malaysian households at risk of shocks ~ 3 Sep 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/03/many-malaysian-households-at-risk-of-shocks/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #46 on: September 08, 2016, 08:55:15 AM »
Singapore Zika cases hit 283; potential new cluster Elite Terrace ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-zika-cases-hit-283-potential-new-cluster-elite-terrace/3108596.html

Malaysia confirms first case of pregnant woman infected with Zika ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/malaysia-confirms-first-case-of-pregnant-woman-infected-with/3108028.html

Malaysian infected by Zika died from heart disease complications - ministry ~ 5 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/malaysian-infected-by-zika-died-from-heart-disease-complications/3098142.html

Zika virus going global ~ 5 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p7WqaDGkbc

Two billion at risk of Zika virus in Africa and Asia ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/09/two-billion-at-risk-of-zika-virus-in.html

Zika virus confirmed in US mosquitoes ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Zika-virus-confirmed-in-US-mosquitoes-30294355.html

Zika turns food centres into 'ghost towns' ~ 31 Aug 2016
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/lunch-crowd-staying-clear-sims-drive-and-aljunied-crescent-food-centres


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #47 on: September 12, 2016, 08:36:20 AM »
Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals fall 46% in August ~ 9 Sep 2016
https://smaulgld.com/shanghai-gold-exchange-withdrawals-fall-46-august/



Chinese exports slow their decline; imports increase

Exports slide 2.8% as imports see first gain in almost two years
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exports-slow-their-decline-imports-increase-1473313928

By Mark Magnier
Sept. 8, 2016 1:52 a.m. ET



BEIJING — Chinese exports fell again in August as weak demand and global uncertainty continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy, though the decline wasn’t as steep as in July and imports rose for the first time in nearly two years.

Exports slid 2.8% last month over year-earlier levels, following a decline of 4.4% in July, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday. The median forecast from 15 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal was for a 4% export decline.

Imports in August increased by 1.5% from a year earlier, reversing a 12.5% slump in July. The rise, which beat forecasts, was largely a reflection of higher prices for raw materials with little sign that domestic demand, consumption or investment have picked up.

China’s trade surplus narrowed slightly in August to $52.05 billion, below economists’ median forecast of $59.40 billion, compared with $52.31 billion in July.

“In general, the figures are quite positive for both exports and imports,” said Standard Chartered Bank Ltd. economist Shuang Ding.
“But domestic demand is still more or less the same. I don’t expect any major pickup.”

Export comparisons were helped somewhat by the calendar as last month saw two more working days than August 2015. The yuan also depreciated by around 7% year on year in July against a basket of currencies, which made Chinese exporters more competitive when signing August contracts, Mr. Ding said.

China’s customs agency said exports should improve by the fourth quarter, citing improved confidence, rising orders and declining costs seen in a recent online survey it conducted. But economists said exports, a once-vaunted growth engine for China, are likely to remain subdued for the foreseeable future.

Qingdao Duobao Furniture Trade Co., an exporter of glassware and glass tables in the eastern China port city of Qingdao, said it expects its sales to decline in the second half on soft global demand after a 20% drop in the first half.

While the weaker yuan has helped it offer more competitive prices, the company said profit margins are still getting squeezed by rising labor costs and weak demand. Qian Yong, the company’s general manager said she hoped Beijing would negotiate more free-trade agreements that reduce tariffs so exporters can better compete in foreign markets.

“China’s economy will likely slow down for quite a long time,” she added. “It’s almost impossible to expect a return to the boom conditions of the past.”

Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping firm, announced plans last month to halt service to 10 smaller Chinese ports as Chinese exports weaken. The World Trade Organization has downgraded its 2016 forecast for global trade growth to 2.8%, the fifth year of growth below 3%. This compares with average annual global trade growth of over 7% between 1990 and 2008.

Capital outflows have eased in recent months after a flood of capital left the country late last year and early in 2016. On Wednesday, China reported that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by $160 billion as of the end of August, compared with July levels, to reach $3.19 trillion.

But companies are likely to continue using trade deals to move money out of China, which imposes strict capital controls, economists said.

One way to do this is by inflating on documents the value of imports from Hong Kong. Imports from the territory, whose economy is separate from the mainland’s, rose 14.3% year on year last month. While this is less than prior months, it is still significantly higher than the growth of overall imports.

China-Hong Kong trade is a “channel of speculative flows,” said investment bank Natixis, part of France’s Groupe BPCE, in a report. As long as the market expects the yuan to depreciate against the dollar, “there will be outflow of funds,” Natixis added.

Tens of thousands of jobs go as China’s biggest banks cut costs ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/tens-of-thousands-of-jobs-go-as-china-s-biggest-banks-cut-costs



China reserves at lowest since 2011 as PBOC supports yuan ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/china-fx-reserves-drop-to-lowest-since-2011-as-pboc-defends-yuan
  • Reserves dropped by $15.9 billion to $3.19 trillion in August.
  • Stockpile has been stabilizing this year even as yuan weakens.


China's evolving trade picture, in 4 charts ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/china-economy-news-export-share-rises-but-rising-costs-pose-challenge-imf-says.html









Global trade has actually been shrinking since the start of 2015 ~ 1 Aug 2016
http://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/16-08-01-1.php?cid=11043


Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #48 on: September 15, 2016, 04:30:28 PM »
Singapore central banker Ravi Menon says monetary policy is overrated ~ 15 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/15/singapore-central-banker-ravi-menon-says-monetary-policy-is-overrated.html

Unemployment in Singapore rises, more workers made redundant in Q2 ~ 15 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/unemployment-in-singapore-rises-more-workers-made-redundant-in/3128434.html



Singapore market getting bad to worse, says Credit Suisse

By Benjamin Cher
September 14, 2016 : 12:04 PM MYT   

The Singapore market is going from bad to worse in terms of corporate profitability and economic growth according to a report by Credit Suisse published on Sept 9.

A combination of regulatory changes and intensifying economic structural problems have led lead analyst Gerald Wong to urge investors to remain cautious on Singapore.

While the economic slowdown in Singapore has been perceived as driven by cyclical headwinds, Wong notes that pro-consumer policy shifts since 2011 has led to a decline in corporate profits.

These include regulatory actions such as the potential introduction of a fourth telco operator, the new rail financing framework as well as cooling measures in the property sector, all of which affect corporate profitability.

However, Wong notes that there are selected cases where both consumers and corporates win, such as the bus-contracting model, where operators only handle the operations and maintenance of the fleet while the government owns all the assets and infrastructure.

“Recent policy announcements continue to reinforce this policy shift, including raising the minimum salary requirement for Employment Pass applications,” says Wong.

In addition, Singapore government policies to increase wages and promote inclusive growth have intensified structural problems. According to Wong, the wage share of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 43% in 2015, from 39% in 2010.

Wong notes that Singapore’s GDP wage share coincides with the business cycle, rising in the 1980s before the 1985 wage-induced recession. And unless there is a surge in productivity, the gap has to be closed via currency depreciation or weaker employment, warns Wong.

“In our view, the growing divergence between declining corporate profits and rising labour costs is unsustainable,” says Wong.

The Singapore market has been showing initial signs of stress, warns Wong. Investment commitments are moderating, the labour market is sliding close to Global Financial Crisis lows, while competitiveness and share of global export remain on the decline. Retail sales too have been affected, a spillover effect from weaker corporate outlook.

GDP growth is also set to disappoint, dropping to 1.1%, below the consensus projection of 1.9%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is also expected to ease the exchange rate policy band downward in October as well.

With close to 30% of firms listed on the Singapore Exchange reporting losses in 2Q16, net margins have fallen to 6.7% in 2Q16, close to the 6.3% seen during the Global Financial Crisis low, says Wong.

The MSCI Singapore has also been the worst performing in the non-Japan Asia market, he adds, posting a decline in return of equity to 8.2%, below the lows of 10.2% in 2008-2009.

Despite MSCI Singapore trading at a price to book value of 1.12x, or 6% above the P/B of 1.06x in 2008-2009, Wong does not foresee a broad market recovery as return on equity remains under pressure.

Credit Suisse is cautious on sectors leveraged to domestic growth and valuations not reflecting near-term headwinds such as the banking and telco sectors. Wong has an “underweight” on DBS, StarHub and M1. He is also calling “overweight” on City Developments, SATS and Mapletree Commercial Trust.

As at 11.30am, shares for DBS are trading lower 0.27% at $15.01, StarHub is down 0.59% at $3.38, while M1 is down 0.82% at $2.43 as at 11.30am.

Shares for City Developments are trading 0.9% lower at $8.77, SATS is down 0.21% at $4.80, while Mapletree Commercial Trust flat at $1.57.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2016, 04:13:06 PM »
More bad news for the economy ~ 16 Sep 2016
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/more-bad-news-for-the-economy-201609161204

Rout in emerging-market currencies gets no trader respect ~ 14 Sep 2016
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/rout-in-emerging-market-currencies-gets-no-trader-respect/article31885304/
If the Fed were to signal decisively that the hawkish bias is not there, EM may really have a much more powerful run.

Michael Pento: Gold goes to all-time highs if Fed admits it cannot raise rates ~ 13 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhTl4f10t3g

Fed Cavalry charges to market's rescue ~ 12 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMk3WZfaN0

Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum

Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2016, 04:13:06 PM »