Author Topic: Is China going to completely collapse ??  (Read 674 times)

Offline eye-hub

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Is China going to completely collapse ??
« on: June 22, 2016, 09:42:17 AM »
Is China going to completely collapse like the Soviet Union did soon?

China has too much money and no good place to put it. That's why you get bubbles in the stock market and in the real estate market.

The Soviet Union had no money and Gorbachev had to call on Helmut Kohl begging for $2 billion to pay current expenses. He got only $1 billion.



This was what happened in Shanghai Exchange since last August. The correction went back to the level of this February.

How would you like China to collapse? Collapse from having too much money and no place to put it except gambling with it in the stock market?

The Shanghai stock market is basically a glorified gambling market. Just because something is called a "stock market" doesn't mean it behaves like the stock market you know. And this one clearly does not. Three charts explaining China's strange stock market The chart below shows you how the Shanghai stock market has nothing to do with S&P. No correlation at all.



The Chinese government issued a report back in 2012, basically saying that about 60% of people lose money in the stock market, 20% break even, and 20% make money. 85% of the investors there are individuals. This is all widely known, and there is still no way to stop people trying out their luck there. One picture I saw floating around on the web is this one below, where the individual investors are represented by the pig there, with the caption: "Is it time to kill the pig?" "Let's wait a bit more."...



"Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value."  - Walter Schloss

Online king

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Re: Is China going to completely collapse ??
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 10:22:54 AM »



中国资产泡沫的三种前景
胡月晓:股市低迷、地产繁荣,使得中国资产泡沫主要体现为地产泡沫,决定着中国经济何去何从。

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更新于3小时前 上海证券首席宏观分析师 胡月晓
鉴于楼市调控措施放松后引起的房价暴涨和交易火爆局面,2016年4月后中国政府再度收紧楼市政策,力图浇灭楼市虚火。然而,政策的收紧无改各地地王竟出的现象!笔者认为,房地产与生俱来的金融抵押品特性,使得该行业对经济运行前景,尤其是经济周期特征,具有重要影响。股市低迷、地产繁荣的格局,使得中国资产泡沫主要体现为地产泡沫,泡沫前景如何决定着中国经济何去何从,以及是否能成功跨越中等收入陷阱!
中国资产泡沫体现为楼市泡沫
当人们将一种资产与泡沫相联系时,通常也就确定了该资产的投资属性。对经济走势有影响的泡沫资产,一定是一种大众投资品。小众投资品的价格波动,因其对宏观经济运行影响小而不太受关注,顶多是作为对应经济周期或经济运行阶段变化的佐证,比如艺术品、集邮等诸多另类投资项目,其潮起潮落,仅是该行业本身热度变化,对其它类别资产和整个经济运行的影响有限。因此,对资产泡沫市场意义上的界定,通常是指大众投资品的价格虚高现象,或者不能持续的高价格现象。在宏观意义上,言及资产泡沫,不外乎指股市和楼市,两者都与经济周期习习相关,可以说是决定了经济周期的变化。
与实体资产房地产不同,股票是金融资产,它不像前者那样有精确的重置成本和租金收入,即使现代资本市场上股票存在有精确的估价公式。与楼市物业不同,股票重置成本的不确定性更高,内生性收益的波动性很大,因而股市通常比楼市有更大的波动性。

赚取波动价差是中国股市投资的主要目的,这种不成熟投资行为反过来增加了股市本身的波动性,因而投资者对股市牛熊快速更替,或牛短熊长局面,天然有着很强的适应性。就中国股市发展的实践看,中国股市并不存在长期泡沫,股市泡沫的生成和破裂,对中国经济运行的冲击也较少,尽管2015年一度想将股市作为经济增长抓手,但很快就证明此路不通。
显然,中国长期性的资产泡沫只存在于楼市。房地产由于其深且广的产业关联性和带动性,过去很长时间内被中国政府定位为国民经济的主导产业。认为中国楼市泡沫存在的判断依据主要有:超高的租售比、超高的房价收入比,以及其它横向比较、纵向比较指标等。租售比、房价收入比等通用指标早已大大超越了国际警戒线,以致大众普遍认为这类指标在中国是不适用的。人们因此找出了很多中国高房价合理的理由,这些理由到现在为止还都无法证伪。横向比较,有研究机构测算,中国当前仅北上广深的地价就可买下半个美国;纵向比价,房价增长持续大幅度超出其它价格(如消费价格、工业价格)的增长,中国房地产行业增长持续大幅超出工业增长、整体经济增长,并显然伤害到了实业发展。
综合而言,说中国存在楼市泡沫,没人拒绝;说中国楼市存在巨大泡沫,大部分也不会拒绝;说中国楼市泡沫会破裂,大部分人会将信将疑,甚至很多人认为中国楼市泡沫还将继续扩大,还远未到破的地步!

Offline Fenrimi631

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Re: Is China going to completely collapse ??
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2019, 03:42:58 AM »
Of course no. China is already superpower and it will take a well-respected place in the world politics. But China will change its methods and will act according to world politics rules.

Offline Fenrimi631

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Re: Is China going to completely collapse ??
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2019, 12:49:55 AM »
China's gonna be okay. They produce more than a third of the products that are used around the world. One Aliexpress is worth it. They don't always take quality, mostly quantity, but it's thanks to this that their products have filled the entire market and everyone can afford to buy something from China. I think that despite the fact that the population of this country is large enough, everyone will have an opportunity to earn and get what they want. In addition, according to analysts, the Chinese economy is recognized as one of the strongest. So nothing will happen, even considering the trade war with the U.S. and other difficulties that are constantly happening in the market.