Author Topic: The other side of the coin  (Read 128826 times)

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #200 on: August 24, 2020, 03:00:20 PM »
人生若只如初見
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgKbhUAhp7I

十年人事几番新,人生能有多少个十年?

F&N ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.72

F&N closed with a drangonfly doji unchanged @ S$1.30 with thin volume done at 40,000 shares on 21 Aug 2020.

Immediate support @ S$1.23, immediate resistance @ S$1.33.



Bearish Rounding Top Chart Pattern



F&N (weekly) ~ Bearish Descending Triangle Breakout, interim TP S$0.72 ~ 21 Aug 2020



Bearish Descending Triangle Chart Pattern


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #201 on: September 07, 2020, 05:00:13 PM »
大跌后容易出现崩盘式的暴跌。而下跌的准确性是根据斐波纳契回撤理论。

First Reit ~ Bearish Rounding Top Breakout, downside biased

First Reit closed with a black marubozu @ S$1.04 (-0.08, -7.1%) with 4.66m shares done on 19 Nov 2018.

Immediate support @ S$1.02, immediate resistance @ S$1.13.


K1 Ventures ~ Fall off the cliff

K1 Ventures had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.565 (-0.04, -6.6%) with 560,000 shares done on 25 May 2017 at 0950 hrs.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #202 on: September 07, 2020, 05:19:03 PM »
似曾相識
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCjAUJDVs4s



SATS ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$2.52 next TP S$1.50

SATS closed with a spinning top @ S$2.91 (+0.05, +1.7%) with 4.21m shares done on 17 Jul 2020.

Immediate support @ S$2.85, immediate resistance @ S$3.08.


Starhub ~ Fall off the cliff

Starhub closed with a black marubozu @ S$2.72 with 3.42m shares done on 9 May 2017.

Immediate support @ S$2.68, immediate resistance @ S$2.76.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #203 on: September 09, 2020, 08:19:21 AM »
REIT Global (7 Sep 2020) Vs Singtel (25 Jan 2018) ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages = 箭在弦上,一触即发。



IREIT Global ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages

IREIT Global closed with a white marubozu @ S$0.695 (+0.005, +0.7%) with 350,000 shares done on 7 Sep 2020.

Immediate support @ S$0.68, strong resistance @ S$0.73.



Singtel ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages

Singtel had a dark cloud cover and traded @ S$3.61 (-0.03. -0.8%) with 14.5m shares done on 25 Jan 2018 at 1425 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$3.60, immediate resistance @ S$3.65.



Singtel closed @ S$2.24 on 8 Sep 2020.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #204 on: September 10, 2020, 03:26:14 PM »
David and Goliath
In modern usage, the phrase "David and Goliath" has taken on a secular meaning, denoting an underdog situation, a contest where a smaller, weaker opponent faces a much bigger, stronger adversary; if successful, the underdog may win in an unusual or surprising way. It is arguably the most famous underdog story.



The six degrees of separation in the Liew Mun Leong and Parti Liyani case ~ 9 Sep 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/09/09/the-six-degrees-of-separation-in-the-liew-mun-leong-and-parti-liyani-case/

Temasek defends Changi Airport boss after maid acquitted, netizens rage over abuse ~ 9 Sep 2020
https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/agencies-people/changi-airport-chairmans-former-maid-acquitted-of-theft/
When Parti reacted to her termination by threatening to notify the labour authorities, Liew and his son Karl Liew, “followed up with the police report to ensure her return would be prevented”, the judge said, referring to the family’s apparent attempt to block Parti from returning to Singapore from Indonesia. He went on to add that, “In my view, the Liew family might not have made a police report had Parti not made her express threat on Oct 28, 2016 to report the matter to MOM.”



Authorities will deal with what had gone wrong: Shanmugam on acquitted maid case ~ 8 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2DF-ufCNZs
Ex-maid acquitted of stealing from CAG chairman: Something has gone wrong and has to be set right, says Shanmugam on handling of case

Ho Ching lambasted by netizens for praising former CapitaLand’s chief executive Liew Mun Leong of “building people”, after the case of Parti Liyani ~ 7 Sep 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/09/07/ho-ching-lambasted-by-netizens-for-praising-former-capitalands-chief-executive-liew-mun-leong-of-building-people-after-the-case-of-parti-liyani/

More than S$28,500 raised for maid acquitted of stealing from CAG chairman ~ 7 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1xmsT__ktU

Indonesian maid says she forgives Singapore’s Changi Airport Group boss Liew Mun Leong for accusing her of stealing ~ 5 Sep 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3100379/indonesian-maid-says-she-forgives-singapores-changi
  • Indonesian Parti Liyani, 46, fought for four years to clear her name after being accused by Liew Mun Leong of stealing from his family.
  • She said she forgives Leong, but asked his family never do ‘the same thing to other workers’ and said she wanted him to ‘apologise to the public’

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #205 on: September 11, 2020, 04:30:00 PM »
曾"为国操盘" 期货上赚500万美金的投资大师郭鹤年! ~ 10 Sep 2020
https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/fmnews/2020-09-10/doc-iivhvpwy5981119.shtml

金龙鱼递交注册:上半年营收870亿 实控人为郭鹤年家族 ~ 8 Sep 2020
http://tech.sina.com.cn/csj/2020-09-08/doc-iivhvpwy5605576.shtml
食用油龙头金龙鱼,即将登陆A股创业板。



一次看懂 | 郭鹤年被逼出大马,到成为世界糖王!最终发怒,引发马来西亚面包大战?全国华人鼎力相助? ~ 5 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ui4Mu-yWUo

After 10 years' trial, it is one day's jail and RM2.5m fine for ex-Transmile boss ~ 27 Aug 2020
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/transmile-ceo-found-guilty
Transmile was once a star of the local equity market whose investors included business tycoon Robert Kuok and Pos Malaysia Bhd, but the company fell from grace in 2007 when it was revealed that its stellar results were due to massive accounting irregularities.

Forbes Malaysia's 50 Richest 2020: Slowing economy takes a toll on country's tycoons ~ 4 Mar 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenkarmali/2020/03/04/malaysias-50-richest-2020-slowing-economy-takes-a-toll-on-countrys-tycoons/
Nonagenarian business legend Robert Kuok, with a net worth of $11.5 billion, remains at No. 1, a position he has held for over two decades. Kuok is among four list members whose wealth shrank by more than $1 billion in the past year.

《对话》:华商领袖郭鹤 (Robert Kuok interview dated 3 Sep 2011)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nGcqaCQbPk


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #206 on: September 17, 2020, 11:25:45 AM »
Maid’s acquittal reignites debate on ‘pliant’ S’pore judiciary ~ 15 Sep 2020
https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/maids-acquittal-reignites-debate-on-pliant-spore-judiciary/
Critics say Singapore's courts favor the rich and powerful.

Singapore: Changi Airport chairman Liew Mun Leong resigns after acquittal of former domestic worker ~ 10 Sep 2020
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3101068/singapore-changi-airport-chairman-liew-mun-leong-resigns-after
In a statement, Liew said he had resigned as chairman of state-owned Changi as well as government-linked infrastructure consultancy firm Surbana Jurong. He also vacated his position as a senior adviser to state investor Temasek and as a board member of its charity arm.



China's 'My father is Li Gang' case ~ 26 Jan 2011
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzC2zez6dr0
The Li Gang incident occurred on the evening of October 16, 2010, inside Hebei University in Baoding in Hebei province of China, when a black Volkswagen Magotan traveling down a narrow lane hit two university students.

"我爸是李刚"全纪录 ~ 31 Oct 2010
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4CvuD187fI

“我爸是李刚”主角出狱,事件大反转真相竟是…… ~ 17 Dec 2019
https://www.sxjlyw.com/redian/301.html
李启铭在狱中也是煎熬了6年,经过改造的他刑满释放出狱。据说他的父亲被查出有数套豪宅,办过许多假案。李刚在儿子出狱前辞去职位,突然消失不知道了去向,而李启铭再也没有爸爸撑腰了


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #207 on: September 18, 2020, 11:20:57 AM »
香港回归中国「认祖归宗」 ('Made in Hong Kong' will be relabeled ‘Made in China’)

Trump’s attack on the ‘Made-in-Hong Kong’ label expected to hurt some firms but not local pride in brand ~ 16 Sep 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3101691/trumps-attack-hong-kong-label-expected-hurt-some-firms-not

WSJ: What other cities could offer to businesses leaving Hong Kong ~ 15 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i-FocwENAg

鏗鏘集:香港製造 ~ 14 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRJblebfYOU

消失的歸屬感和抗共的決心 中共讓香港人明白了什麼? ~ 14 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC8Nd8RacQg

The hollowing out of Hong Kong ~ 12 Sep 2020
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1983995/the-hollowing-out-of-hong-kong

BBC:「香港製造」被迫變「中國製造」 醬園老闆嘆:像失去了身份 ~ 9 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5aTZXkc-q8

Hong Kong’s US-bound exports to be labeled ‘Made in China’: What does it mean? ~ 25 Aug 2020
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/hong-kongs-us-bound-exports-to-be-labeled-made-in-china-what-does-it-mean/

Why the loss of the ‘Made in Hong Kong’ label is no trifling matter ~ 21 Aug 2020
https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3098099/why-loss-made-hong-kong-label-no-trifling-matter
with the suspension of Hong Kong’s preferential trade status, the US government has announced that from September 25, merchandise exported from the city to the US would have to be labelled “Made in China” instead of “Made in Hong Kong”. This would truly be a nightmare for Hong Kong businesses. (Hong Kong marking transition period as been extended for an additional 45 days to November 9, 2020)



‘Made in China’ label ruling hits a raw nerve in Hong Kong ~ 14 Aug 2020
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-hong-kong-trade-label-national-security-law/2020/08/14/8410b52e-dd45-11ea-b4f1-25b762cdbbf4_story.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #208 on: September 18, 2020, 01:09:33 PM »
香港人与新疆人全民「免费」核酸检测

Organ harvesting: A blind eye to mass atrocity ~ 14 Sep 2020
https://bitterwinter.org/organ-harvesting-a-blind-eye-to-mass-atrocity/
For the CCP, removing and selling organs from prisoners of conscience is a huge business. The perpetrator of this atrocity is the machinery of the Chinese Communist Party, operating on an industrial scale. It is now thought that there may be something in the region of 60,000–100,000 such transplants every year, with hearts, lungs, kidneys, livers, and corneas for sale in an industry worth billions of dollars. This is über-big business for China, with its wealthier citizens besides rich people from the USA, UK and around the world getting these transplants—some surely knowing, some less aware, where their donated organs are coming from. Some countries have taken measures against such “transplant tourism,” including Taiwan, Israel, Spain, and Italy. Others remain complicit in this crime against humanity.

消失的歸屬感和抗共的決心 中共讓香港人明白了什麼? ~ 14 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eC8Nd8RacQg
失蹤港人去哪兒了?
大陸器官移植廣東器官源豐富

全球染疫超过2500万 香港医护吁抵制全民检测 ~ 31 Aug 2020
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/08/30/a102929885.html

香港活动人士黄之锋呼吁抵制全民检测 ~ 30 Aug 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INSj2z2eLJI

Why Hong Kongers are suspicious of universal Covid-19 testing ~ 25 Aug 2020
https://qz.com/1895851/why-hong-kongers-are-suspicious-of-universal-covid-19-testing/

新疆喀什全民免費檢測 中共被疑隱疫或採DNA ~ 14 Aug 2020
https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2020-08-14/62766526

香港推全民核酸检测 港民忧DNA被“送中” ~ 7 Aug 2020
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%8E%A8%E5%85%A8%E6%B0%91%E6%A0%B8%E9%85%B8%E6%A3%80%E6%B5%8B-%E6%B8%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%BF%A7dna%E8%A2%AB%E9%80%81%E4%B8%AD/a-54488367

港人失蹤4結局 6千人被抓去哪了? ~ 13 Dec 2019
https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2019-12-13/78003618
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rHTF7Trgh8



民主自由是需要治療的「毒癮」?中共政權下的香港與新疆 ~ 3 Dec 2019
https://opinion.udn.com/opinion/story/11020/4201818

维族医师揭露器官移植黑幕 吁关注新疆人权 ~ 30 Oct 2017
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/renquanfazhi/hx-10302017101954.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyWWocBNRcc


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #209 on: September 24, 2020, 03:16:53 PM »
原主人 (中華民國) 在台灣一直存在

中華民國歷史
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E6%AD%B7%E5%8F%B2
1971年,中華民國退出聯合國,中華人民共和國取代中華民國在聯合國及其附屬組織的「中國」席位,許多國家轉而與中華人民共和國建交,與中華民國斷交,國際地位轉趨低落。現今的「中華民國」於國際間常因地理位置通稱為「台灣」、或因政治因素權宜被稱為「中華台北」、「臺灣地區」等,以經濟成就聞名於世。

克拉奇訪台後,蔡英文為何說決心踏出關鍵一步?出現「台灣駐美大使」稱號,台美關係出現變化?川普政府滅共佈局開始了? ~ 22 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXMmIRj05xw

Highest-level U.S. Official since 1979 Keith Krach Visits Taiwan (2020) ~ 22 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQuB7UiC2OA



From founder to exile: Taiwan’s relationship with the WHO ~ 20 Apr 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcxWhUF2z9I

Assignment: China - "The week that changed the world"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyCZDvec5sY
Richard Nixon's visit to China in February 1972 changed the course of history — reshaping the global balance of power and opening the door to the establishment of relations between the People's Republic and the United States.

In February 1972 US President Richard Nixon made an unprecedented 8-day visit to the People’s Republic of China and met with Chinese leader Mao Zedong.



US President Richard Nixon shakes hands with Chou En-lai.



为什么台灣會叫台灣?台灣自古不屬中國!台南熱蘭遮城古蹟考察團
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFe7f5dLEMs

为什么雍正皇帝说台湾自古不属中国
https://bbs.creaders.net/politics/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=6184

辛灏年: 中共在抗战中做了什么
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cllRXSEGZtU

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #210 on: September 25, 2020, 08:04:03 AM »
SIA closed @ S$3.39 (-0.07, -2.02%) on 24 Sep 2020.



Commentary: We must save Singapore Airlines from this existential crisis ~ 24 Sep 2020
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/singapore-airlines-layoff-national-carrier-temasek-government-13137324

Shareholder raises concerns about SIA’s 15 years of fuel hedging losses to Prime Minister Lee, as no one takes accountability ~ 23 Sep 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/09/17/shareholder-raises-concerns-about-sias-15-years-of-fuel-hedging-losses-to-prime-minister-lee-as-no-one-takes-accountability/
“Please do not hide all of these troubles under the cloud cover of COVID-19, just as the 15 years of hedge losses had been in the fine footnotes, so that even your then Chairman said he didn’t know of this. He reiterated that SIA’s core competence is not fuel trading but airline operations.



Weak travel demand aside, SIA has major problems to fix

By Tay Peck Gek
23 Sep 2020

The pain being felt by the aviation sector is global, and Singapore Airlines (SIA) and its top brass should not be unfairly penalised for factors that are beyond their control. But some of the hits that SIA has taken could have been reduced or even avoided.

Take, for instance, SIA's investments in foreign airlines NokScoot Airlines and V-irgin Australia, which have filed for liquidation and voluntary administration, respectively.

Thailand-based low-cost carrier NokScoot and Brisbane-based full-service airline V-irgin Australia had been struggling with turning a profit even before the pandemic. Consequently, they were among the earliest casualties of the pandemic.

NokScoot was a 49 per cent-owned associated company of Scoot Tigerair, an SIA subsidiary. Its liquidation led SIA to record a charge of S$127 million for the first quarter ended June 30. This came after SIA had written off the carrying value of its investment in NokScoot in previous financial periods.

NokScoot was established in Thailand in 2014 with an initial total investment of S$78 million as a joint venture medium- to long-haul low cost airline. Since inception, it has never been able to deliver a full-year profit. SIA had injected an additional S$10.2 million in capital in the fiscal year 2020 and S$9.9 million in FY2019.

Much of NokScoot's losses were attributed to the difficulties in growing the network as well as the intense competitive environment, Scoot said in a media statement on NokScoot's liquidation. It did not see a path to recovery and sustainable growth for NokScoot, amid a difficult operating environment brought on by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

SIA similarly had to write off its 20 per cent stake in V-irgin Australia, and it recognised an impairment loss of S$344 million for the year ended March.

SIA's expansion through foreign joint ventures was part of a multi-hub strategy to set up hubs outside of Singapore and to create new engines of growth in key markets.

But Citi analyst Kaseedit Choonnawat noted the national carrier's poor track record in such foreign investments, and expressed doubts about the prudence of its intention to utilise a portion of the recent S$8.8 billion raised to "capture potential opportunities" thrown up by the pandemic.

NokScoot and V-irgin Australia were not the first investments to go bad for SIA, with V-irgin Atlantic and Air New Zealand setting precedents.

SIA acquired a 49 per cent stake in V-irgin Atlantic for £600 million (then S$1.6 billion) in 2000 but was only paid US$360 million (then S$440 million) when it offloaded the stake to United States carrier Delta Air in 2012. SIA had at the time said its investment had not performed to expectations and the synergies originally hoped for did not materialise.

The company also lost most of the more than NZ$400 million it invested in Air New Zealand following the near collapse and subsequent government-led rescue of the Kiwi carrier in the early 2000s.

Certainly, international investments carry a great deal of risk. But as SIA reviews its fleet and network plans to prepare for a very different aviation landscape post-pandemic, it is hoped that the company's investment track record may be an aspect for consideration.
Fuel hedging losses.

Meanwhile, SIA is also now drawing criticism over fuel hedging losses that The Business Times had written about in this column some time back.

A shareholder has taken to Facebook urging SIA chief executive Goh Choon Phong to step down and take responsibility for these losses.

Lim Seng Hoo said in his Facebook posts that he had earlier flagged fuel hedging losses to the airline and appealed to it to stop its hedging practice, but to no avail.

SIA racked up S$71 million in fuel hedging losses for its quarter to June, and also recognised S$464 million in mark-to-market losses from surplus hedges that arose because of capacity cuts resulting from the pandemic.

In the quarter ended March, it booked S$198 million in fuel hedging losses and S$710 million in mark-to-market losses.

SIA has warned of further fuel hedging losses ahead, and has recognised S$2.6 billion in mark-to-market losses in its reserves for FY2021 for contracts maturing between FY2022 and FY2025.

Hedging aims to reduce the risk of losing money on shares, bonds or other securities that one owns. But SIA is now losing big on its hedges.

At the time it entered into these hedges, oil prices were admittedly rising fast. But some market watchers have suggested SIA went overboard by locking in its jet fuel costs five years into the future - surpassing global airlines in the number of months forward that it hedged its fuel requirements.

As controversial as its fuel hedging strategy was its massive capital expenditure (capex) programme, which burned through more than the cash flow generated from its operations. Consequently, its free cash flow was in negative territory for the last four financial years - with deficits ranging from S$1.25 billion to S$2.72 billion. Its long-term borrowings ballooned from S$1.53 billion to S$7.16 billion.

UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith suggested in a May report that SIA's original plans for S$23.5 billion in capex over the next five years were "excessive and detrimental to the balance sheet, even pre-Covid-19".

SIA has since announced it will lower capex this financial year by at least 12 per cent, compared with its previous plan, with the final reduction to be determined by talks with planemakers over delivery delays.

But even after travel demand returns to its pre-Covid levels, SIA may need to be less ambitious with its fleet renewal plan.
SIA's strategy over the last few years left little margin for error, and the company's various stakeholders are now paying the price.

SIA may exhaust $8.8b debt proceeds before market recovers: analyst ~ 15 Sep 2020
https://unfoldtimes.com/sia-may-exhaust-8-8b-debt-proceeds-before-market-recovers-analyst/



“农家小子”陈久霖逆袭成“打工皇帝”,狂妄赌徒能赢多久? ~ 20 May 2020
https://kknews.cc/zh-sg/news/9vx66g8.html
  • 中航油(新加坡)能占据母公司100%的采购份额,一靠赌并购,二靠赌期货。陈久霖精通《周易》,对“赌”的理解别开生面:“赌可能是人的天性,我经常会以某种‘赌’的精神,致力于公司的发展。”
  • 中航油(新加坡)上市后,人们才窥见其盈利的玄机:2003年中航油(新加坡)年报显示,进口航油采购和石油贸易仅占总利润的16%,投资回报却占税前盈利的68%。
  • 这种“巧用资本杠杆”的方式,曾赢得中航油集团领导的盛赞,称其:“成功运用期货、纸货等石油衍生品工具,实现多种贸易方式的交叉运营,有力推动了贸易量的增加和利润的稳定增长。
Costly lessons from the CAO scandal ~ 23 Dec 2004
http://english.eastday.com/eastday/englishedition/node20665/node20666/node22806/node42985/node42987/userobject1ai774201.html
China Aviation Oil (CAO), voted as the most transparent company listed on Singapore Exchange, had collapsed because of a US$550 million loss in speculative oil trading in 2004. This was the second major derivative scandal at the Singapore Exchange. The first one was the collapse of UK''s Barings Bank in 1995.

陈久霖:”墙倒众人推,既倒不怕推。日后垒铜墙,欢迎大家推。”



Gambling with other people’s money

Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #211 on: September 26, 2020, 01:50:22 PM »
万达为鸿泰能源还债 ~ 25 Sep 2020
https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/business/2020/09/25/365712
中国万达集团即将与其新加坡石油贸易子公司鸿泰能源(Hontop Energy)的2家主要贷款银行了结债务纠纷。

王健林资产有多少?万达集团王健林2020年资产多少?~ 21 Sep 2020
http://cjnews.eeju.com/zixun/2020/0921/092020_8193.html
2020年胡润全球富豪榜显示,王健林财富为170亿美元。与2018年相比,王健林身价缩水100亿美元,因此排名从第9位降至第68位。

手头有点紧,“1亿小目标”变了,王健林清仓海外地产,从买买买到卖卖卖! ~ 1 Aug 2020
https://www.nanmuxuan.com/economy/fehdvnuaem.html

王健林再次失守,万达旗下公司面临破产,负债343亿元! - 8 Jul 2020
https://new.qq.com/omn/20200708/20200708A0BEHE00.html
美国AMC原本是全球排名第二的影院公司,2012年,在跟万达谈判了两年之后,终于签下了并购协议。这次并购万达花了26亿美元,再加上还要帮AMC还清债务,总共其实是花了31亿美元(约合人民币195亿元),可以说是下了“血本”!



习近平粉碎王健林全球野心,却又救他一命,海航安邦被查封,唯万达逃生;普利策奖获得者主编深度调查披露王健林起落史 ~ 29 Jun 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9xpml-dK6g


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #212 on: October 03, 2020, 02:23:25 PM »
Is the Medishield Life really a shield against medical costs? Or is it really a battering ram to already tight pockets? ~ 1 Oct 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/10/01/is-the-medishield-life-really-a-shield-against-medical-costs-or-is-it-really-a-battering-ram-to-already-tight-pockets/
The Medishield Life Council has just announced a whole raft of potential changes to Singapore’s national health insurance scheme that can see premiums rise by 35%.

MediShield Life to increase premiums by up to 35%, Singaporeans think it’s “daylight robbery” ~ 30 Sep 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/09/30/medishield-life-to-increase-premiums-by-up-to-35-singaporeans-think-its-daylight-robbery/
The Government announced that MediShield Life premiums may rise by up to 35% in 2021. This will be the first increase in premiums for compulsory health insurance since its launch in 2015.

MediShield Life may let Singaporeans claim up to $150,000 next year, but premiums go up by 35% ~ 30 Sep 2020
https://mustsharenews.com/medishield-life-premiums-claim/

Ms Teo hints CPF Minimum Sum may be raised again; CPF payouts not enough for basic standard of living ~ 17 Nov 2019
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2019/11/17/ms-teo-hints-cpf-minimum-sum-may-be-raised-again-cpf-payouts-not-enough-for-basic-standard-of-living/
For example, those who turned 55 this year, the Minimum Sum would be $176,000. This is the mandatory sum to be kept with CPF Board at 55. One can only get monthly payouts from it at 65 and after. The CPF Minimum Sum for 2021 and beyond, which is yet to be announced, would likely to be higher than the 2020’s $181,000.

How much of your CPF be locked up when you reach age 55? ~ 25 Oct 2019
https://www.theastuteparent.com/2019/10/full-retirement-sum/



Why is our CPF lock in and only return to us monthly when we reach 65. As promise we should be able to drawdown fully when we reach 55?



How CPF locks up Singaporeans’ money ~ 25 Jun 2009
https://furrybrowndog.wordpress.com/2009/06/25/how-cpf-locks-up-singaporeans-money/


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #213 on: October 05, 2020, 08:56:17 AM »
How Evergrande's billionaire founder skirted his latest crisis ~ 3 Oct 2020
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-billionaire-founder-skirted-latest-160200944.html
Hui Ka Yan, the rags to riches billionaire who runs China’s most indebted developer, skirted his latest crisis in much the same way he always has: with help from wealthy friends and a government fearful of financial instability.

Evergrande: To save or not to save? Is China’s financial crisis coming? ~ 30 Sep 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6jxXqBNp9U
“To be, or not to be, that is the question” for Prince Hamlet.
“To save or not to save Evergrande”, that is the question for the CCP.

China Evergrande pre-empts US$19 billion cash crunch as investors drop repayment option in Shenzhen reorganisation plan ~ 30 Sep 2020
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-evergrande-pre-empts-us-190854459.html
  • Most investors who poured in RMB130 billion into Hengda unit have agreed to drop a repayment option in much-delayed Shenzhen deal.
  • New terms should ease concerns about the group’s liquidity, according to CGS-CIMB analyst.


China can't afford to let its property market crash ~ 4 Sep 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cant-afford-let-property-033603082.html
While that's a challenge to companies such as Guangzhou-based Evergrande, which at one point was the world’s most indebted developer, the big companies have always found ways to raise funds.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #214 on: October 12, 2020, 09:26:16 AM »
马云预言:未来10年都将消失的行业,谁都躲不过,你信吗?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGSjUSUD3No

Businesses that are disappearing ~ 4 Aug 2020
https://blog.cheapism.com/dying-industries

1.   Newspapers
2.   City Newsstands
3.   Bookstores
4.   Other Publishers
5.   Logging/Paper Mills
6.   Private Household Employees
7.   Cable and Other Subscription Programming
8.   Professional Employer Organizations
9.   Land Subdivision
10. Photofinishing
11. Video Rental
12. Recording Studios
13. Manufacturing
14. Textiles/Apparel Manufacturing
15. Formal Wear and Costume Rental
16. Data Recovery
17. Retail Stores
18. The Postal Service
19. Lending/Savings/Credit Intermediation Institutions
20. Small Business Startups

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #215 on: October 22, 2020, 09:06:09 PM »
苏小妹:

新加坡政府在政治上是强力支持美国。但是,在经济上却是非常亲中国的CCP。(一脚踏兩船 = win-win situation)

Singapore firing on all cylinders to attract MNCs

By Foong Swee Fong
October 21st, 2020

Is that a good strategy for a developed country with healthy reserves?

In poor, developing countries, it makes sense to attract foreign MNCs. They mobilize resources like labour and land which would otherwise be idle, as well as provide capital.

But in a fully developed economy like Singapore, resources are not only fully employed, but stretched. In fact, the demand for land is so great, the resulting high rent is making many businesses uncompetitive, except locally where customers have no choice but to pay the high prices demanded, even if the products or services are subpar.

There is also not enough workers. To attract MNCs, the government has to allow them to employ foreigners, leading to overcrowding, social friction, high cost of living and the displacement of Singaporeans.

MNCs are not here to transfer know how and trade secrets to Singaporeans. They are here to maximize profits. If the government offers them very attractive incentives like low tax, assistance to relocate and train workers, guarantee them rights similar to local companies, help them enforce copyright and therefore profits, etc, they would come.

In exchange, they promise to create a certain number of jobs for locals. However, there are many ways to circumvent the promise. For example, they can bring in their own managers and specialists and encourage them to apply for PRs without having to give up their citizenship. Once approved, they become locals and count towards creating local employment.

If another country offer better incentives, these footloose MNCs will move on. Employees who have gotten PR-ship can drop the PR and move on with the company. What will Singapore gain in the long run?

We have had so many pharmaceutical MNCs here. Have we produced one world class pharmaceutical company? No, we have only produced a few small companies servicing the MNCs which will die a natural death when the MNCs move out.

IPhones are assembled in China by a Taiwanese contractor called Foxconn. The Chinese workers make a meager salary working in dehumanizing plants. Foxconn makes a decent profit but the bulk of it goes back to the shareholders of Apple. Even the raw materials are sourced from other countries. How does it benefit the host country in the long run?

To produce any world class company, even if it is a small, niche company, the entrepreneur has to be running the business himself, years on end, fine tuning and improving all the time, with a supportive home environment. He will never produce a world class company working for others. If Mr Chan thinks “capabilities will be acquired over time”, he is sorely mistaken. It will only be created if we are chasing our own dreams, day in, day out.

But it is an uphill task when rent and cost of living is so high and top talents prefer working for MNCs, GLCs and the government.

Since independence, our government has sought to attract MNCs because that’s the main thrust of its strategy. MNCs have helped us in our development when we were a developing economy. But we are now fully developed, and stretched. We would do better to nurture local companies than to attract even more MNCs to compete for finite and limited resources.

MNCs have their own interest, which is to maximize profits regardless of externalities to the host country, including jacking up cost of living, pollution, congestion and disrupting the locals’ way of life. When we are no longer attractive, they will move on, leaving us to pick up the pieces. At some point in time, we have to start chasing our own dreams, not that of others.

Singapore 'firing on all cylinders' to attract MNCs; capabilities can be acquired over time: Chan

By Gayle Goh
October 20th, 2020

Attracting global heavyweights remains a key prong of Singapore's strategy to create more jobs and keep the labour market tight, even where the Republic currently does not have all the capabilities required, said Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing on Monday.

In recent weeks, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Hyundai Motor Group unveiled major investment plans in Singapore. Thermo Fisher will set up a S$130 million biomedical facility to house two new sterile filling lines, to support the development and manufacture of therapies and vaccines. Hyundai will invest S$400 million in a new innovation centre to enhance automotive manufacturing processes and develop smart vehicles.

Citing these examples, Mr Chan reaffirmed the role of global "queen bee" companies in catalysing local industries, and benefiting the supporting ecosystem of small and medium enterprises. This is in addition to Singapore's efforts to foster startups and help companies expand abroad, as part of a multipronged strategy, he said.

Mr Chan was briefing reporters on the sidelines of a joint visit to semiconductor giant GlobalFoundries Singapore with Manpower Minister Josephine Teo. He noted that the electronics industry offers a bright spot amid the economic gloom.



As at September this year, the industry has already recorded S$5.7 billion of fixed assets investment and S$376 million of total business expenditure, and is expected to create about 1,100 jobs over the next three to five years, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The manpower ministry's (MOM) tenth weekly jobs situation report was released the same day, and similarly highlighted the electronics industry as a lone bright spot for manufacturing jobs. In the second quarter of 2020, amid the largest contraction on record, the electronics industry managed to increase total employment by 1,000 locally. This was partly due to a demand surge for digital goods and services amid "circuit-breaker" travel restrictions, safe-distancing measures and remote working arrangements.

At the same time, MOM's report indicates friction in hiring Singaporeans for the roles available. According to the report, over 130 electronics companies have offered more than 2,800 jobs and training opportunities since April. Salaries range between S$1,800 (for technicians) and S$8,500 (for executives and managers). Yet, of the 2,800 opportunities identified, only about 220 individuals have been placed.

Mrs Teo described the low take-up rate as a "great pity". Companies were doing their best to reach out to workers, but jobseekers may not know that the industry is hiring, she said. They may also be deterred by the mistaken impression that a technical background is always required, she added, pointing to less technical roles such as in sales and business development.

"If the companies are not able to fill these positions, either they cannot grow as fast as they wish, or they will have to find some way of filling the positions - which will be a loss to Singaporeans," said Mrs Teo.

At the briefing, Mr Chan noted that Singapore had progressively built up its capabilities in the semiconductor industry, which now contributes about 7 per cent of GDP, up from less than 1 per cent in its nascent years. Over the decades, the industry has created many good job opportunities, he said, with some workers starting in basic job roles and later taking up more complex positions in engineering, R&D and design.

Mr Chan went on to emphasise that any current lack of capabilities should be no deterrence to bringing in new investments. "Never be afraid to go into particular industries, just because we don't yet have the skillsets," he said. "When economic agencies go around the world to attract investments, we ask ourselves which investments will best create jobs for this generation and the next generation of Singaporeans.

"If these good long-term investments - be it in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, or an emerging industry like electric vehicles - are not here today, the next generation of good jobs will inevitably be lost to our competitors. And our next generation will end up having to work elsewhere rather than in Singapore," he added.

Singapore-China relations, 30 years on: can the 4G leaders hold their own, and will the US rock the boat? ~ 3 Oct 2020
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3103994/singapore-china-relations-30-years-can-4g-leaders-hold-their-own
  • For Singapore, analysts said the foremost question was whether the new generation of leaders who were poised to succeed the current prime minister – Lee Kuan Yew’s eldest child – would be able to hold their own in dealing with their counterparts in Beijing.
  • Notwithstanding the impact Lee Kuan Yew had on his country’s ties with China, analysts said there were signs the younger, so-called 4G – or fourth generation – leaders of Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party were coming into their own.


焦点 | 王瑞杰:新中关系要与时俱进 加强合作 ~ 24 Sep 2020
https://www.8world.com/news/singapore/article/focus-singapore-china-bilateral-relations-1260481

Outlook for Asia bright despite worst recession in a century: DPM Heng Swee Keat ~ 15 Sep 2020
https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/asia-a-bright-spot-and-what-countries-need-to-do-to-build-a-resilient-future-dpm-heng-swee



Temasek’s China exposure surpasses Singapore for first time ~ 8 Sep 2020
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/temasek-s-china-exposure-surpasses-singapore-for-first-time-1.1490634
  • Temasek’s exposure to China rose to 29% of assets as of March 31, compared with 24% for Singapore, the lowest exposure for its home market since the company was formed in 1974.
  • The investment giant has been adding to assets in China despite the rising risk of a political and economic decoupling from the U.S. Its exposure to China, which includes stakes in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Meituan Dianping, compares with 17% in North America and 10% in Europe.
  • BlackRock Inc. and Temasek in August received approval to jointly build an asset-management business in China with China Construction Bank Corp. - the latest of several pushes by the Singaporean investor into the country’s financial services industry.
  • Other China holdings include a stake in Alibaba-affiliate Ant Group, which is set to go public in Hong Kong and Shanghai this year, seeking a $225 billion valuation.


Singapore’s prime minister has a message for the US: Don’t choose China confrontation or Asia withdrawal ~ 28 Jul 2020
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/singapores-prime-minister-has-a-message-for-the-us-dont-choose-china-confrontation-or-asia-withdrawal/
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore, worries that Washington’s increasingly tense relationship with Beijing and domestic pressures to reduce its commitments abroad will force US policymakers to choose either a path of “colliding with China” or “deciding that you have no stake in the region and leave us to our own defenses.”



Analysing Singapore’s F-35B acquisition ~ 2 Apr 2020
https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2020/04/analysing-singapores-f-35b-acquisition/
In January 2019, the United States approved the sale of up to 12 Lockheed-Martin F-35B Lightning II fighter jets and related equipment and services to Singapore in a $2.75 billion deal. Singapore’s F-35 procurement thus affirms the robust long-standing defence ties between the city-state and Washington.

五角大楼:美国批准向新加坡出售总价27.5亿美元的12架F-35B歼击机 ~ 10 Jan 2020
http://sputniknews.cn/military/202001101030420795/



The odd couple: Singapore's relations with China ~ 4 Dec 2019
https://www.eurasiareview.com/04122019-the-odd-couple-singapores-relations-with-china-analysis/



美新续签防务协定,美可继续使用新加坡军事基地至2035年 ~ 24 Sep 2019
https://www.sohu.com/a/343025437_260616



‘Significant and steady investments’ in defence required to keep Singapore’s future secure: Ng Eng Hen ~ 1 Mar 2019
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/significant-steady-investments-in-defence-required-singapore-11300978
  • Defence spending for Financial Year (FY) 2019 is expected to hit S$15.5 billion, up from S$14.8 billion the previous FY, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat had previously announced in his Budget statement on Feb 18.
  • Dr Ng said that nominal defence spending over the next decade is expected to grow at 3 to 4 per cent each year, to "at least keep pace with inflation".

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #216 on: October 25, 2020, 03:02:59 PM »
中国又一家千亿集团—华晨汽车,昨天垮了! ~ 24 Oct 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8paatmXvg2U

又爆雷! 千亿东北国企 (华晨汽车) 出事: 10亿还不起 债券圈炸了 ~ 25 Oct 2020
https://money.163.com/20/1025/07/FPP55OLJ00259DLP.html
其私募债券“17华汽05”发生违约,债券余额为10亿元。华晨集团发生实质性违约。
受消息影响,华泰资管旗下多只债券基金大跌。



華晨寶馬和進口寶馬,質量有沒有差別?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPERQZ6nwY


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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #217 on: October 27, 2020, 08:17:28 AM »
风水輪流轉

What does Kwek Leng Peck's resignation mean for CDL's share price?

CDL is trading at steep discount to NAV, but its ROEs have declined significantly over the past decade

By Ben Paul
Mon, Oct 26, 2020 - 5:50 am

City Developments (CDL) has lost about 8 per cent of its market value since revealing last week that there were bitter divisions within its board in relation to its investment in Chinese real estate firm Sincere Property Group (SPG) and its management of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (M&C).

Its shares closed at S$7.04 on Friday, which is just over 0.6 times the company's net asset value (NAV) as at June 30 of S$11.66 per share. This is even lower than the trough price-to-book valuations at which the stock traded during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which some analysts see as sufficient justification to remain invested.

Yet, CDL's investment fundamentals were quite different a decade ago. In particular, the company was generating much higher returns on equity (ROEs) than it is now.

CDL's ROE jumped sharply to 13.9 per cent in 2007, and then remained in double-digit territory for four more years, all the way through the turmoil of the GFC. Although the stock whipsawed during the crisis period, it was ultimately supported by an elevated level of profitability.

Things have changed since then. CDL's ROE slipped to 9.3 per cent in 2012, from 11.7 per cent in 2011. Its ROE subsequently trended lower and lower, to just 5.4 per cent in 2019.



One likely reason for CDL's falling ROE is that its core property development business has become much tougher over the years.

The government has displayed unwavering determination to stamp out any sign of speculative activity in the property sector. From late 2009 to early 2014, several rounds of "cooling measures" were rolled out in order to tame the market - including increasingly punitive stamp duties and caps on mortgage lending.

In 2018, following a surge in collective sale transactions, the government introduced yet another round of cooling measures, which drew howls of protest from property developers.

While it appears that private property sales are now headed into another upturn, it would probably be unwise for investors to bet that the property market will develop sufficient momentum to drive CDL's ROEs back to the double-digit levels of 2007-2011 without the government slamming on the brakes again.

If shares in CDL are to narrow their discount to book value, the company needs to find other ways to lift its profitability - perhaps by getting into new markets or generating better returns from its investment properties.

This is perhaps why the market has reacted so negatively to the revelation last week of disagreements within CDL's board about SPG and M&C.

Big bet on M&C, SPG

CDL took the London-listed M&C private last year, following a cash offer at 685 pence per share that valued the hotel company at £2.23 billion (S$3.95 billion). CDL already owned 65.2 per cent of M&C before the offer. CDL had previously attempted to take M&C private at 620 pence per share, but its offer was rebuffed by minority investors.

With M&C within its fold, CDL said in its most recent annual report that it plans to pursue initiatives to maximise shareholder value. "These include controlling and reducing operating costs acutely; leveraging the group's global network, resources and real estate capabilities to refurbish assets for enhanced growth - especially those with conference facilities; repositioning underperforming assets and exploring the development of unutilised land."

With the fallout from Covid-19, however, CDL's hotels business has been a major drag on its profitability this year.

For H1 2020, CDL reported a 32.8 per cent year-on-year decline in revenue to S$1,072.9 million. Its earnings for the half-year period came in at just S$3.1 million, versus S$362 million for H1 2019.

CDL reported pre-tax profit of S$13.8 million for H1 2020, down from S$490.3 million for the same period in 2019. The group's hotel operations recorded a pre-tax loss of S$208.2 million, which included S$33.9 million of impairment losses made in view of the pandemic.

It was also last year that CDL announced its initial plan to invest in SPG. In May 2019, CDL said it would stump up 5.5 billion yuan in equity and interest bearing loans to acquire a 24 per cent stake.

But CDL only went as far as extending a loan of 2.75 billion yuan to SPG before the deal was renegotiated.

CDL said in April that it had struck a new deal that would see it acquire a more than 51 per cent stake in SPG for an initial investment of 4.4 billion yuan, part of which will be used to repay the 2.75 billion yuan loan.

CDL will also be granted a call option to purchase an additional 9 per cent effective interest in SPG for 0.77 billion yuan.

CDL's stake in SPG will be held through an offshore holding company in which SPG's chairman and founder Wu Xu will retain a stake, giving him an effective 20 per cent interest in SPG.

This revised deal is based on an agreed valuation of 8.6 billion yuan for SPG, which is almost 50 per cent below SPG's unaudited NAV as at Dec 31 of 16.48 billion yuan.

Through SPG, CDL said it would gain a presence in 18 cities in China, a portfolio of 27 investment properties, a landbank of 9.2 million square metres of gross floor area, and access to SPG's talent pool of over 2,000 employees.

CDL did warn, however, that SPG faces near-term "challenges and uncertainties" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Alternative plan?

Last week, CDL outlined the full extent of its current exposure to SPG. Besides the 51 per cent equity investment in SPG of 4.4 billion yuan, CDL had subscribed for US$230 million in bonds issued by SPG and extended a working capital loan of 650 million yuan.

CDL had also provided a liquidity support undertaking totalling 1.5 billion yuan relating to bonds issued by SPG that mature on Oct 26, 2020, and a 1.5 billion yuan corporate guarantee in relation to an external bank loan.

CDL calculates its total current exposure to SPG to be S$1.9 billion.

CDL said this continuing financial support for SPG and concerns about the management of M&C were among the reasons that Kwek Leng Peck had decided to resign from its board.

Mr Kwek's decision has potentially significant implications for ordinary shareholders of CDL. Firstly, he clearly has a great deal of knowledge and insight about CDL's business, having been a member of its board since 1987.

More importantly, he is a senior member of the family that ultimately controls CDL. He is a cousin of CDL's executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng, and an uncle of CDL's CEO Sherman Kwek. Even after his exit from the board, he could conceivably continue to influence its thinking on SPG and M&C.

Could CDL ultimately decide that it is on the wrong track with SPG and M&C? What else can it do to lift its sagging ROE? If there is no credible plan to improve its underlying profitability, what is CDL's future as a public-listed company? Should it liquidate some of its key assets and go private?

During the 10-year period up to end-2019, before Covid-19 emerged, shares in CDL delivered a total return of just over 11 per cent (with dividends reinvested). By comparison, the Straits Times Index delivered a total return of more than 54 per cent over the same period.

Unless CDL can confidently offer investors the prospect of significantly better returns that it has generated over the past decade, it seems unlikely that the steep discount to NAV at which its shares trade will narrow much.

CDL's top executives and independent directors could face a testing time in the weeks and months ahead as they engage the company's majority and minority shareholders on the appropriate way forward.

Why are developers buying land even during a downturn? ~ 29 May 2017
https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/why-are-developers-buying-land-even-during-a-downturn/
Singapore’s property prices may have declined for 14 quarters, but that isn’t deterring developers.
Developers have paid premiums of about 29% on land purchases, since tweaks to the cooling measures in March.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #218 on: October 29, 2020, 12:04:47 PM »
IAS 40 Investment Property
https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-40-investment-property
The lion’s share of SPH's FY2020 loss arose from fair value losses in its property investments.
Under the fair value model, investment property is remeasured at the end of each reporting period.
Changes in fair value are recognised in profit or loss as they occur.

「此一时彼一时」

Dorm operator Centurion Corp gets a thumbs up from UOB Kay Hian ~ 22 Oct 2020
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dorm-operator-centurion-corp-gets-thumbs-uob-kay-hian
UOB Kay Hian initiate coverage on Centurion with a BUY, TP S$0.44 (+30.7%) from closing price of S$0.34 on 16 Oct 2020.

Student housing in the UK is no longer a ‘bullet-proof’ investment after the coronavirus crisis ~ 3 Jun 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/covid-crisis-student-housing-at-risk-as-universities-move-online.html
  • It’s currently unclear how higher education will work in the upcoming academic year and without students attending face-to-face classes, on top of the travel restrictions, the crisis is weighing on this niche investment opportunity.
  • Unite Students, one of the largest student accommodation providers in the U.K., said in April it expected a loss between 16% and 20% in rents for the 2019/20 academic year.


SI research: Centurion Corporation – Bright prospect ahead

By Jimmy Ng
28 July 2017

Recently, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC reported a 20-year annualised real rate of return of 3.7 percent above global inflation on its portfolio for the period ended 31 March 2017, which dipped slightly from the four percent return last year.

Along with the released statement came some comments that the fund is prepared to take underperformance against relative benchmarks owing to current period of heightened uncertainty and low returns. Nonetheless, a key part of GIC’s investment in such a challenging environment would be to ensure that its portfolio remains robust with diversification across asset classes, regions, return drivers and risk thresholds.

Adding on to that, Lim Chow Kiat, GIC’s chief executive officer, pointed out that they see growth and opportunities investing into infrastructure as well as student-housing market. Now that caught our attention. According to data from Real Capital Analytics cited by Bloomberg showed, GIC and Mapletree Investments have pushed acquisitions in student housing to a record US$16.2 billion last year. This year, GIC together with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and The Scion Group jointly acquired three US student-housing portfolios for about US$1.6 billion.

With “smart money” illuminating the way and taking the lead, should we as smart investors follow suit? This issue, let us take a closer look at Centurion Corporation (Centurion), and explore what this leading provider of quality accommodation in Asia has got to offer us.

Company Profile

Starting out as an audio cassette tape manufacturer in 1981, Centurion (formerly known as SM Summit Holdings) has successfully diversified into the accommodation business to capture growth opportunities in this niche market following a reverse acquisition in 2011. Today, the group owns, develops and manages quality workers accommodation assets under the Westlite brand and student accommodation assets under the Dwell brand. As at March 2017, Centurion has a portfolio of 11 workers accommodation and 10 student accommodation in operation totaling 61,608 beds in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and the United Kingdom (UK).

According to Centurion’s FY16 annual report, the group’s core businesses in worker accommodation and student accommodation accounted for 71 percent and 27 percent of its FY16 revenue respectively. Geographically, the main bulk of the revenue was derived from Singapore at 70 percent followed by United Kingdom contributing 17 percent, while the rest is made up of Australia and Malaysia with each constituting seven and six percent respectively.



Strong Financial Results

Centurion’s financial results were nothing short of impressive. Over the last five years, the group’s revenue grew consistently at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.5 percent to $120.3 million in FY16, driven by the continual expansion of its workers and student accommodation businesses as well as an increasing portfolio size. Correspondingly, net profit from core business operations climbed at a CAGR of 30.5 percent to $38.6 million in FY16.



Centurion’s latest quarter results continued to display stable revenue and profit increments. For 1Q17, the group reported revenue of $36 million, which rose 25.6 percent. The double-digit growth was largely attributed to better performance of the group’s worker accommodation assets in Singapore, in particular the newer Westlite Woodlands and ASPRI-Westlite Papan. Most notably, revenue from the group’s student accommodation business was also significant with contributions from four newly acquired student accommodation assets in the UK. As a result, net profit jumped 14.5 percent to $10.7 million.

Strong Demand In Singapore

Despite the softer economy in FY16, all five worker accommodation assets which Centurion operates in Singapore enjoyed close to full occupancy rates during the year. Being one of the largest purpose-built workers accommodation (PBWA) owner-operators in Singapore and Malaysia, its established position in the sector allowed Centurion to ride along the tailwinds brought about by some of the favourable government policies. For instance, non-Malaysian manufacturing workers will no longer be allowed to rent out entire HDB flats with effect from 1 January 2017, making PBWA an alternative option for accommodation. Meanwhile, factory-converted dormitories are also facing increasingly stringent guidelines by the authorities.

With the Building and Construction Authority projecting the value of construction contracts to be awarded in 2017 to reach between $28 billion and $35 billion higher than preliminary estimate, which in turn translates to higher demand for foreign workers in Singapore. Over the short term, this bodes well for the sustainability of demand for worker accommodation contributing to Centurion’s performances.

Acquisitions To Drive Growth

Student accommodation has always been one of Centurion’s best performing and resilient segments even during global economic downturn, underpinned by the popularity of UK and Australia among international students seeking tertiary education with their number of top ranking universities, coupled with shortage of quality and well-managed purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in the regions.

According to a Jones Lang LaSalle report published in November 2016, student accommodation database in Melbourne, Australia, reported a total of 234,844 full time students matched with an existing supply of only 19,188 beds.

Considering the healthy demand and undersupply of PBSA beds in Melbourne, Centurion has finalized its plans to develop a new accommodation block in RMIT Village which could increase an additional 160 beds. Meanwhile on 30 March 2017, the group has also entered into an agreement to acquire a development site in Adelaide for a 280-bed student accommodation expected to be completed in 2018. Given its proximity to major universities in Adelaide and limited pipeline of PBSA beds in that area, Centurion is confident of the future performance of its second asset in Australia.

Likewise, performances of Centurion’s eight PBSA assets in the UK are equally lustrous alongside their Australia’s counterparts. According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Services, the 2016/2017 academic year saw an increase of 7,000 acceptances into UK universities from the previous year. As a result, the group’s student accommodation assets continued to perform well with an overall occupancy rate of approximately 96 percent.



Valuation

As at 19 July 2017, Centurion is transacting at a market price of $0.50 per share, which represents a rather inexpensive valuation of price-to-earnings ratio at 12.3 times and a price-to-book ratio at 0.9 times. With a dividend payout of $0.02 in FY16, current price offers a decent yield of around four percent. Although the shares just had a run-up from $0.31 since December last year and is currently trading near its 52-week high, we reckon that there could be potential for further upside given its expanding portfolio as well as a stable business in a resilient sector.

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #219 on: November 02, 2020, 04:45:18 PM »
Fountains of Bellagio "My heart will go on"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhHMUKn5dhQ

Broker's take: S-Reits' exposure to Robinsons owner in spotlight as more brands may close

By Fiona Lam
Mon, Nov 02, 2020 - 2:10 pm

DBS Group Research on Monday noted that the fortunes of retail-focused Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) are "closely tied" with that of beleaguered Robinsons Singapore's owner.

More brands under Dubai-based conglomerate Al-Futtaim, which owns the department-store operator that's now in liquidation, may also follow suit with closures, the research team wrote.

The Al-Futtaim group is larger than most might think - it's most of the biggest brand representatives in Singapore. Its brands in the city-state include household names such as Marks & Spencer, Zara and Mango.

Across its 23 brands in Singapore, Al-Futtaim has 111 retail outlets, and about half (56) of these stores are located in S-Reits' malls, DBS analysts Geraldine Wong, Derek Tan and Rachel Tan said in a note on Monday.

The exit of Robinsons may not be a one-off occurrence among Al-Futtaim's portfolio of brands, given the ongoing pressures due to capacity and travel limits, the analysts added.

Retail S-Reits with the largest exposure to the group by store count are CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) with 15 outlets, and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) with 11, according to DBS.

CapitaLand also rents to nine Al-Futtaim brands in total, at its Jewel Changi Airport and Ion Orchard.

Likewise, owners of malls in the Orchard shopping belt - such as Starhill Global Reit with nine stores, Lendlease Global Commercial Reit with seven and Mapletree Commercial Trust's (MCT) VivoCity with eight - have close landlord-retailer relationships with the group, said DBS.



This comes as fashion retailers remain in consolidation mode. The shift to work-from-home practices amid the coronavirus pandemic has led to plunges in portfolio retail sales in fashion.

DBS thus believes most retail brands may look to rationalise their footprint in 2021, and will likely carefully review any shop closures on a store-by-store and brand-by-brand basis to maximise profitability.

"Over time, we believe that the dominant malls across Singapore will continue to attract tenants to maintain their occupancies in the longer term," the research team wrote.

It favours CMT, FCT and Lendlease Reit, which hold "dominant" malls with characteristics that allow them to attract tenants, keep occupancies higher than the rest of the industry, and thus navigate well past the evolving retail landscape.

Robinsons last Friday confirmed it is shuttering for good after more than a century in the business, weighed down by losses in recent years. Some 175 employees will be affected by the closure.

"While the timing came as a surprise to many, we note that department-store formats have been struggling for years, and the inability to establish an omni-channel presence has resulted in department stores rationalising their footprint over time," DBS wrote.

Putting further pressure on their revenues is the Covid-19 pandemic, which has led to restrictions on department stores from holding "atrium sales".

Following Robinsons' collapse, the spotlight is now also on S-Reits' department-store exposure, which ranges between 7 per cent and 21 per cent of gross revenues for Singapore.

Robinsons' department stores contributed about 7 per cent of revenues for CMT, although the Reit's merger with CapitaLand Commercial Trust is estimated to bring this exposure down to less than 2 per cent, DBS said.

Other department-store operators in the Republic include CK Tang Limited's Tangs, which is a tenant of MCT, and mainboard-listed Metro Holdings, which is a tenant of FCT and SPH Reit. Isetan Singapore has no exposure among S-Reits, although it is itself listed on the Singapore bourse.

Department stores usually stand as anchor tenants within malls, given the large percentage of net lettable area they lease. The exit of such anchor tenants may thus result in a "black hole" in shopping centres, DBS noted.

"Landlords may have to get creative with the extra plot of space with the option to either find another anchor tenant to take up the entire space, or divide the retail plot into smaller ones with rental upside potential and consider the overall positioning of the asset going forward," the analysts said.

Among DBS's stock picks, CMT - which will be renamed CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust on Tuesday - was trading at S$1.74 as at 1.29pm on Monday, up S$0.01 or 0.6 per cent.

FCT units fell S$0.01 or 0.5 per cent to trade at S$2.10, while Lendlease Reit dropped 0.5 Singapore cent or 0.8 per cent to 60.5 cents.

Robinsons Singapore to close after 162 years ~ 30 Oct 2020
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/company-news/robinsons-singapore-close-after-162-years


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #220 on: November 04, 2020, 01:17:17 PM »
MediShield Life may let Singaporeans claim up to $150,000 next year, but premiums go up by 35% ~ 30 Sep 2020
https://mustsharenews.com/medishield-life-premiums-claim/

Koh Poh Koon’s response about MediShield Life’s actuarial reports could give the impression that Govt has something to hide ~ 4 Nov 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/11/04/koh-poh-koons-response-about-medishields-actuarial-reports-could-give-the-impression-that-govt-has-something-to-hide/

WP’s Gerald Giam urges govt to release full actuarial report on MediShield Life scheme ~ 3 Nov 2020
https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/11/03/wps-gerald-giam-urges-govt-to-release-full-actuarial-report-on-medishield-life-scheme/

A very unhappy Singaporean

October 28th, 2020

I was told that in order to be entitled to claim from the Medishield Life Compulsory Government Scheme that I would have to stay for a complete day in the ward and so I did.

But as you can see from the invoice as I have attached, instead of deducting from the Medishield Life Scheme, the hospital chose to dig $450 from my Medisafe Saving instead.

The statement read:

PATIENT IS COVERED UNER MEDISHIELD LIFE

MEDISHIELD / MEDISHIELD LIFE CLAIMABLE AMOUNT COMPUTED IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO THE DEDUCTIBLE THERE IS NO PAYOUT FROM MEDISHIELD / MEDISHIELD LIFE.




So, it seems the preference is to dig from the Medisave saving until it dries up. There are so many hidden agenda and conditions that nobody, even the hospital doctor or nurse could reasonably understand how the scheme works, since I was actually advised by them.

So, I charge that either those deductibles are hidden as “Govt Grants” or the entire Medishield Life is but a USELESS PIECE OF HOAX. After paying so much money every year for the stupid scheme, there is ZERO pay-out, not helping the citizen in any way at all. This is entirely cannot be accepted.

Hence the Government must allow Singaporeans to withdraw from such fake and useless scheme. As the invoice had shown, Medishield Life provides ZERO help in time of need.

Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #221 on: November 07, 2020, 10:55:47 AM »
Hong Kong supermarket chain Wellcome plans HK$80m giveback scheme to help needy amid Covid-19 pandemic ~ 28 Oct 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3107491/hong-kong-supermarket-chain-wellcome-plans-hk80-million
Wellcome, which is operated by Jardine Matheson through Dairy Farm, announced on Wednesday (Oct 28) 2m cash and meal vouchers would be distributed through more than 70 charities.

保就業計劃︱惠康母企獲批近4億元補貼擸最多 百佳獲1.61億元 ~ 22 Oct 2020
https://hk.appledaily.com/local/20201022/7V7LK47DZJAMHM5DCKP6ON4L64/

Retailers take large chunk of wage subsidies again ~ 22 Oct 2020
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1556067-20201022.htm
The parent company of Wellcome, Dairy Farm, is getting almost HK$400m.
ParknShop comes second in this current batch, getting HK$162m.
Third-placed Watsons Retail receives HK$71m.



Coronavirus: Hong Kong’s two largest supermarket chains to dish out cash coupons in exchange for wage subsidies, but critics say it is not enough ~ 22 Sep 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3102566/coronavirus-hong-kongs-two-largest-supermarket
Wellcome will roll out HK$120m worth of sweeteners, while keeping the price of 300 daily necessities unchanged for 6 months.
ParknShop says it will offer HK$40m worth of food coupons to about 200,000 people including needy families, the elderly and disabled.

Wellcome among the employers taking part in second round of wage subsidies, as number of applicants drops by 57% ~ 14 Sep 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3101464/wellcome-among-employers-taking-part-second-round
One of Hong Kong’s biggest supermarket chains, Wellcome, will participate in the latest round of HK$81 billion (US$10.3 billion) wage subsidies, conceding to government demands to offer discounts in return, the Post has learned, even as the total number of applications for the scheme dropped significantly. The upcoming batch of subsidies will be rolled out between September and November.


Offline zuolun

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Re: The other side of the coin
« Reply #222 on: November 15, 2020, 11:30:40 AM »
Vulture funds buy up bonds of China state-owned enterprises

Default of two industrial groups triggers plunge in prices of corporate debt

By Sun Yu
15 Nov 2020

Beijing -- Vulture funds are racing to purchase bonds of troubled Chinese language state-owned enterprises, after a pointy sell-off sparked by a big coal mining group’s default on a Rmb1bn ($156m) debt difficulty.

Singapore Airlines raises S$850 million through convertible bond issue ~ 13 Nov 2020
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-airlines-bond-issue-850-million-investor-13530640
The five-year bonds will carry a coupon of 1.625%.
The offer was more than 4X oversubscribed "with strong investor interest".

SIA Group reports first half net loss of S$3.5 billion as passenger numbers fall by 98.9% amid COVID-19 ~ 6 Nov 2020
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/covid-19-sia-group-first-half-net-loss-of-3-5-billion-13480628

Gambling with other people’s money

Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.