Posted by Piggybank > Aug 15, 2016 09:19 AM | Report Abuse
In the automotive sweet spot
KESM recorded a strong 2012-15 EPS CAGR of 32%. We believe the
solid growth is sustainable, underpinned by focused growth in the
automotive business and margin expansion from improved product
mix and growth in the high-margin testing business. Hence, despite
the 34% stock price outperformance ytd, we think valuations remain
attractive and expect a continued PE re-rating. Initiate coverage with
a BUY and target price of RM11 based on 12x our calendarised 2017E
EPS, for upside potential of 58%.
Set to benefit from automotive structural growth story
KESM provides a good proxy to the stable and growing automotive
semiconductor segment, in our view. With strong growing demand for
electronics for vehicles, from safety to infotainment and autonomous
vehicles, we believe KESM is in the right segment to benefit from an
automotive structural growth story.
2015-17E EPS CAGR of 35%
We forecast KESM to achieve a 3-year EPS CAGR of 35% on the
expansion of its testing business in the automotive segment. Its recent
investments, in our view, should gradually bear fruit in the coming years
and drive revenue growth. We look for EBITDA margins to rise from 31.9%
in 2015.
Further re-rating expected
We see several re-rating catalysts for the stock, including a strong earnings
upcycle and PE expansion, as awareness on the stock remains low and
institutional holdings are limited.
Initiate coverage with BUY and RM11 target price
We initiate coverage on KESM with a BUY rating, on: 1) solid growth
prospects in the automotive space, a strong working relationship with
customers and expansion into the testing business, which we expect to
drive a 3-year-forward EPS CAGR of 35%; 2) a hands-on and forwardlooking
management team; and 3) although valuation comparables are
limited as competitors are mainly integrated device manufacturers (IDM),
closest peer Trio-Tech (TRT US) trades at a 14x 2016E EPS. KESM also
trades on average at a 56% discount to automotive-related IDMs’ 2016E
PE of 20.7x. Thus, at a 2017E PER of 8x, valuation looks attractive. Our
target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) offers 58% upside